Equity Push as Bond Yields Rise

当其他市场都放缓时，期货市场还在持续活跃。

When the rest of the markets slow down, the futures market keeps moving.

你知道吗？CME集团的标普500和纳斯达克100期货几乎全天候交易，流动性非常好。

Did you know that CME Group S and P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures trade nearly twenty four hours with great liquidity?

在ETF市场里，下午四点之后到次日早上，交易量和流动性都会明显下降。

In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessens after after 4PM until the next morning.

但期货不一样，白天黑夜都有交易机会。

But with futures, you get trading opportunities both day and night.

了解更多，请访问cmegroup.com/equityfutures。

Learn more at cmegroup.com/equityfutures.

去吧。

Go.

旧金山。

San Francisco.

2023年4月4日凌晨两点左右，一名男子在旧金山市中心的人行道上被刺多刀。

On 04/04/2023, around two in the morning, a man was found stabbed multiple times on a sidewalk in downtown San Francisco.

嗨。

Hey.

这事是我们做的。

We did this to you.

接下来发生的事让整个事件演变成了一场政治风暴。

What happened next turned the story into a political firestorm.

报道称，受害者是现金应用的创始人鲍勃·李。

Reports have identified the victim as Bob Lee, the founder of Cash App.

来自彭博播客，这是《溃败》：鲍勃·李遇害案。

From Bloomberg Podcasts, this is Foundering, the killing of Bob Lee.

现在就去你常用的播客平台收听。

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播

Radio.

新闻

News.

这里是彭博市场观察播客。

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

工作日早上七点东部时间，可通过苹果CarPlay或安卓Auto，使用彭博商业应用收听我们的直播。

Catch us live weekdays at 7AM eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

您可以在任意播客平台点播收听，或在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

现在有请莫妮卡·迪琴索加入我们。

Monica DiCenso joins us now.

我之前在摩根大通私人银行负责全球投资策略。

I had a global investment strategy, JPMorgan Private Bank.

有钱人都在怎么打理他们的资金？

What are fancy people doing with their cash?

我不太清楚那些有钱人怎么做，但我可以告诉你我的客户们是怎么处理他们的资金的。

I don't know about fancy people, but I can tell you what my clients are doing with their cash.

目前他们的现金余额仍然相当高。

Balances are actually still pretty high.

如果你看看我们整个平台的数据，大约有20%的资产还躺在现金里。

If you look like across our entire platform, something around 20% of assets is actually still sitting in cash.

我一些大客户的情况甚至更高。

Some of my larger clients that it's even greater than that.

我觉得这反映出很多人想加仓风险资产，但又在等待回调的机会。

And I think that just reflects the desire for many people to add to risk assets and some kind of pullback.

但我们一直没等到一次像样的回调。

We just haven't had a prolonged pullback.

市场确实有波动，但都没持续多久。

We've had volatility, but it hasn't been very long lasting.

所以我预计，随着夏天推进，如果再出现几次小幅下跌，这些钱就会慢慢流入市场。

So I expect as we move through the summer, maybe if we get a few more bumps, you'll see some of that move into the market.

我觉得随着下半年临近，大家只是希望中东的动荡和那些头条新闻能早点过去。

And then I think as we move towards the back half of the year, I think people are just hoping that we get through all this turmoil in The Middle East and some of these headlines.

问题是，当你感觉一切不错的时候，通常反而不是投资的好时机。

The problem is, you know, when it feels good, that's generally not the best time to invest.

所以你最好先试探性地投入一点。

So you probably should be sticking a toe

现在就该行动了。

in now.

你的客户对通胀有多担心？

How how concerned are your clients about inflation?

我知道现在这种通胀，对K型经济中低端的影响，可能比高端更大一些。

I know it's you know, this inflation that we're seeing out there, it impacts the lower end of the k shaped economy, perhaps a little bit more than the higher end.

是的。

Yeah.

但我猜你最近接到不少客户来电吧。

But I'm guessing you're getting some phone calls.

这绝对是人们最担心的风险。

It is by far the biggest risk that people think about.

我觉得我服务的客户中，很多人都还记得七十年代。

I I think when you think about the client base I work with, many of them remember the seventies.

他们说，好吧。

And they say, okay.

你看这个市场，一路稳步攀升，可利率和通胀却越来越高，感觉会持续很久。

You look at this market, it just keeps grinding higher, grinding higher, and yet you have higher rates, higher inflation that feels like it's gonna be more more persistent.

所以他们非常担心，这种情况会不会重演七十年代的景象。

And so that they're very concerned that this could somehow be the seventies all over again.

我们可能会措手不及。

We're gonna get caught, you know, off kilter.

不过，当我查看投资组合时，并没看到为高通胀环境做准备的配置。

That said, when I look at portfolios, I don't see portfolios that are built for a higher inflationary environment.

所以现在市场年初至今涨了百分之八九，我们聊得最多的也就是这个。

And so when you look at this market up high single digits year to date, that's where we're having most of our conversations.

想想资产再平衡的问题。

Think about rebalancing.

考虑往投资组合里加一些在通胀环境下表现更好的资产。

Think about adding more to your portfolio that's gonna carry better in an inflationary environment.

你得看看实物资产、基础设施，甚至对冲基金——很多客户已经很久没用过这些工具了。

So you gotta look at real assets, infrastructure, even hedge funds again, which many of my clients have not used as a tool in a very long time.

我知道。

I know.

我这么说的时候，自己都忍不住笑，确实如此。

Just saying it, I kinda chuckle like you because Yep.

它们曾经很长一段时间不受欢迎。

They were out of favor for a long time.

现在我觉得，人们开始意识到，在通胀环境下，非相关性策略能发挥多大作用。

And I think now people are starting to appreciate what uncorrelated strategies could do in an inflationary environment.

就连固定收益市场，现在买两年期国债都能拿到百分之四以上的收益。

Even in a fixed income market, where you could sit in a two year treasury and get north of 4% now.

我的意思是，这对很多人来说肯定很有吸引力

I mean, that's gotta be attractive for a lot

很多人。

of people.

确实如此，尤其是在我们看未来十二个月的情况下，我们在股票方面寻求5%、6%或7%的回报。

It is, especially in a world where we look at twelve months, we're looking for five, six, 7% returns in equities.

所以如果你能用固定收益产品获得接近这个水平的回报，而且波动性要小得多，那确实很有吸引力。

So if you can get close to that with fixed income with much less volatility, that feels attractive.

所以我想你一开始提到的那个大问题，就是现金。你知道，在现在的通胀水平下，持有现金并不是个好选择。

And so I I think the big question that you mentioned at the beginning, the cash, you know, with inflation where it is, cash is not where you should be.

所以你需要稍微涉足一下风险资产，不管是以什么形式，哪怕只是稍微增加一点风险敞口。

So you should do need to dip a toe in and into risk assets in some form, even if it's just, you know, going out a little bit on the risk

比如选择风险偏高一点的选项。

side of box.

那久期方面你打算怎么处理呢？

What do you do with duration?

首先，我们先把这个固有成见说清楚。

First of all, let's get this stereotype out of the way.

就是那些我口中的所谓“精致人群”。

Fancy people, as I call them.

他们的配置是60%股票配40%债券吗？

Are they sixty forty?

还是把大部分资金都重仓了苹果和英伟达？

Are they loaded the boat on Apple and Nvidia?

里面债券占85%吗？

Are they 85% bonds?

这些组合的实际构成是什么样的？

What's the actual makeup of those portfolios?

当你接触到财富层级较高的人群时，你会发现他们会有更多资金配置在久期较长的投资上。

When you start to go to, like, the higher end of the wealth spectrum, you do see more assets in longer duration investments.

这些可能是另类投资，或者其他类似领域，因为他们对流动性的需求没那么高。

That could be alternatives, other areas like that because they don't need the liquidity.

对吧？

Right?

所以他们能承担更多的风险。

And so they they can take a little more risk.

这就跟普通的散户投资者不太一样了。

So that's gonna be different from, a standard, you know, mom and pop investor.

所以我觉得资金会更多地流向这些领域。

And so that's where I see more investments going.

他们是在做长期布局。

They're they're playing for the long term.

他们想熬过这段时期。

They wanna ride this out.

他们不想再

They don't wanna worry

操更多的心了。

much more.

所以你

So you

一家四十五口人，还得商量好下一站去哪场F1比赛。

got a family of 45 people deciding which f one Grand Prix to go to next.

不错。

Great.

有一个人专门负责看月度报表。

And there's one person who's responsible is they look at the monthly statement.

如果看到收益上升、价格下跌，是吧。

If we see yield up, price down Yeah.

价格跌多久他们才会开始着急？

How many months out do they have to see price down before they get upset?

说来有趣。

You know, it's funny.

正因如此，另类资产反而可能是更好的选择。

I that's in a way why alternatives can be a better asset class.

有些资产的估值不是每月都更新，这样反而能帮人们稳住心态。

Some of these marked, you know, not on a as regular basis, so it helps people hang in there.

客户确实会慌张。

You know, clients do panic.

这正是我的工作意义所在——帮他们保持冷静。

That's why I have a job, right, to try to keep them steady.

除了谈论通胀，我们花很多时间问客户：你的计划是什么？

And where we spend a lot of time besides talk about inflation is what is your plan?

你的目标是什么？

What is your goal?

这笔钱到底是为了什么？

What is this money for?

如果这笔钱是为五年、十年、十五年后的孩子或孙子准备的，那就别因为月度报表就慌了。

And if it's for five, ten, fifteen years from now, your kids, your grandkids, you should not panic on a monthly statement.

我总是提醒大家，别让这些短期波动引发不必要的反应。

I try to caution people to not let that cause these reactions.

我刚才还提到，今年到目前为止市场已经涨了百分之九。

And even I mentioned market up, you know, 9% year to date.

人们一看见这个数字，就觉得‘我这时候可不敢加仓’。

People look at that and they say, oh, I can't add here.

高位加仓可不是明智之举。

I shouldn't add at highs.

但我们看的都是长期数据，不是两三个月，而是四五个月甚至更长时间——在历史高点加仓，和在回调时加仓，其实差别微乎其微。

All the data we looks at we look at over time, maybe not in a two or three month period, but four or five months or longer, adding at an all time high, almost no different than adding on a dip.

所以我总提醒大家，从行为层面别让情绪左右投资决策，还是要坚持我们之前定好的计划。

And so I I try to caution people on the behavioral side to not let your emotions dictate how you invest and rather stick to the plan that that we've articulated.

说起来容易，

Easier said than

做起来难。

done, though.

没错。

Exactly.

那黄金呢？

How about gold?

黄金嘛，等等。

Gold wait.

我们一度涨到了五千左右。

We hit a you know, hit 5,000.

现在回落到四千五了，不过我知道，黄金经常是客户们讨论的话题。

We've now pulled back to 4,500, but still, I know gold is in the conversation often with your clients.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

我的大多数客户，尽管过去几年金价涨了一倍多，

I you know, most of my clients, in spite of the rally, what, over a 100% over the last few years.

黄金这波涨势真是相当强劲。

So gold's had an amazing rally.

但这次市场波动时，大家原本以为中东危机会让金价上涨，结果却没那样。

And yet on this recent volatility, I think people assumed the Middle East crisis would cause a rally, and that's not what happened.

这背后有好多原因。

And there's a lot of reasons for that.

但你看看现在黄金的价格，就会明白。

But you look at where gold is now, and you say, okay.

我的大多数客户还是希望适当分散一下美元资产的风险。

I still most of my clients still wanna diversify a bit outside of their dollar exposure.

没错。

Yep.

黄金在这方面确实有帮助。

So gold helps there.

再看央行的购金行为，我们认为在未来六到十八个月内，这仍将是推动金价的有利因素。

And then you look at central bank buying, which we think is still gonna be a tailwind over the next six to eighteen months.

把这两点结合起来看，黄金在投资组合里依然有它的位置。

And so that we add those two together, still feels like there's a place for gold in portfolios.

没错。

Yep.

关键是怎么配置它。

The question is how you add it.

黄金确实有一定波动性。

So actually have some volatility.

你可以卖出看跌期权。

So you can sell puts.

可以采用这类策略，以更低的价格逐步建仓，一些大家族就是这么做的。

You can do strategies like that to leg in at a lower level, which has been how some of larger families have been doing it.

莫妮卡，非常感谢你。

Monica, thank you so much.

莫妮卡·迪琴索，来自摩根大通私人银行。

Monica DiCenso with JPMorgan Private Bank.

继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

接下来还有更多来自彭博市场观察的报道。

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

当其他市场都放缓时，期货市场还在持续交易。

When the rest of the markets slow down, the futures market keeps moving.

你知道吗？CME集团的标普500和纳斯达克100期货几乎全天候交易，流动性非常好。

Did you know that CME Group S and P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures trade nearly twenty four hours with great liquidity?

在ETF市场，下午四点之后到次日早上，交易量和流动性都会明显下降。

In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessens after 4PM until the next morning.

但期货市场不同，白天黑夜都有交易机会。

But with futures, you get trading opportunities both day and night.

了解更多，请访问cmegroup.com/equityfutures。

Learn more at cmegroup.com/equityfutures.

我是弗朗辛·拉克鲁瓦，一名获奖记者，最近推出了我的新播客《弗朗辛·拉克鲁瓦的领袖对话》，由彭博播客出品。

I'm Francine Lacroix, an award winning journalist, and I've got a new podcast, Leaders with Francine Lacroix from Bloomberg Podcasts.

我采访过从国家元首到时尚偶像等各种人物，聊当下热点新闻，但我一直很好奇，这些人在领导力上究竟是怎么想的。

I've interviewed everyone from heads of state to fashion icons about the news of the moment, but I've always been curious who are these people as leaders.

我认为，做领导者并没有一种固定的方式。

I don't think there's one right way to be a leader.

做出决定。

Make decisions.

一个糟糕的决定，也比不作决定强。

A poor decision is always better than no decision.

每隔一周的星期一收听新一期节目。

Listen to new episodes every other Monday.

在您常用的播客平台搜索并关注《Francine Lacroix 领导者说》。

Follow leaders with Francine Lacroix wherever you get your podcasts.

您正在收听的是彭博市场观察播客。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

工作日午后七点到十点（东部时间），我们现场直播。

Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.

通过彭博商业应用，在 Apple CarPlay 和 Android Auto 上收听。

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

或者直接观看我们的直播。

Or watch us live

在YouTube上。

on YouTube.

现在和我们在一起的是大卫·多尔，他在麦格理负责经济学和美洲事务。

David Doyle right now, with us on economics and The Americas at Macquarie as well.

大卫，我感觉咱们这次的经济学讨论，跟保罗那次谈红袜队、笔和希望的感觉不太一样。

David, I don't feel like I've had a traditional economics discussion like Paul, when the red sox had pen and hopes.

没错。

Exactly.

大卫，如果你今天要写一份八页的报告，你对今年九月到十一月美国经济的走势有什么判断吗？

David, if you're writing an eight page memo today, do you have any understanding of where the American economy is, say, September, November this year?

对。

Yeah.

嗯，汤姆，我们对未来的走向其实相当乐观。

Well, look, Tom, we we are actually fairly optimistic in terms of where things are heading.

我们认为消费者表现得很坚韧，信贷增长也依然强劲。

We think that the consumer is proving resilient, and credit growth remains strong.

AI资本开支的周期仍在强劲推进。

The AI CapEx cycle continues to run strong.

所以我们觉得你们目前的状况不错。

So we suspect that you're in a good place.

到了秋天，这种情况应该还会持续。

And I think that that'll remain the case when you get to the fall.

到时候你们会讨论经济有多强劲，以及美联储未来可能还得加息。

And you'll be talking about how strong the economy is and the need for rate hikes down the line from the Fed.

大卫，你对当前经济中的通胀有多担心？

David, how concerned are you about the inflation in this economy?

这是短期因战争引发的能源通胀，还是有更深层的原因？

Is it a short term war driven energy inflation, or is it something more?

我觉得背后还有更深层的原因。

I think there's something more.

石油价格飙升的影响可能正在消退，但接下来几个月，这种影响很可能会反映在核心通胀上。

I think that you you know, certainly the the oil spike is is probably passing through, and you're likely to see that come through in core inflation in in coming in coming months.

但我觉得，除此之外，还有一波科技热潮正在兴起。

But I think on top of that, you have a tech boom.

我认为，2025年甚至2026年被低估的一个关键点，就是科技如何在推高通胀。

And I think this is one of the undertold stories of 2025 and even 2026 now is how much tech is is driving an inflation impulse.

你看消费者价格指数里的计算机软件和配件，过去常年都是同比下降5%左右。

If you look at at things like computer software and accessories in the consumer price index, that has historically been about minus 5% year on year.

但最新四月的数据却显示，同比上涨了14%。

In the latest release for for April, that was up 14% year over year.

这明显是个转折点。

So you've seen a real inflection in that.

生产者价格指数里的半导体，情况也差不多。

PPI semiconductor, similar story.

现在同比涨幅大概在25%到26%之间。

That's up, I think, 25, 26% year on year.

考虑到当前通胀的中枢水平是3.8%。

With the inflation we have of a central tendency, 3.8%.

我注意到加拿大今天公布的通胀数据明显更低了。

I noticed Canada coming out today with a much lower inflation regime.

Macquarie 是不是在预测通胀会稳定在 4% 左右？还是说你觉得它只会慢慢回落，但不会降到 2%？

Are is Macquarie modeling out a potential 4% statistic, or is it or do you just see it migrating not to 2%?

别管那些不靠谱的说法，我就想知道它会不会只是缓缓往下走一点。

Forget about that silliness, but just nudging down, if you will.

在美国，劳动力市场当然紧得多，那加拿大那边情况怎么样？

Do I think in in The US, of course, you have a much tighter labor market, and then what's the case in Canada?

加拿大那边积累了一些劳动力闲置。

Canada built up some some labor slack.

所以我觉得，这能解释为什么过去几个月，这两个经济体的通胀数据出现了分化。

So I think that helps to explain why you're seeing some divergence in the inflation data out over over the last couple of months in those two economies.

但我认为，美国的总体通胀率今年晚些时候很可能会达到 4% 左右。

But I I'd say that 4% on a headline number is is probably likely to occur later this year in The US.

所以我们觉得这个水平可能会持续下去。

So it's something that we think will be sustained.

但油价上涨的情况下，达到4%是完全有可能的。

But certainly with the oil price increase, that's 4% is is is obtainable.

从长期来看，通胀可能会稳定在2.5%到3%之间，对吧。

Think probably longer term, you're looking at inflation settling in around two and a half to 3% Right.

我们已经经历过一段时间了。

We've had.

通胀率超过目标水平已经有五年多了。

I mean, inflation's been above target for over five years now.

现在请回到我们的监控专家团队，有戴维·多尔、亚历克西斯·克里斯托弗森和保罗·斯威尼。

Return to return to surveillance experts here with David Doyle, Alexis Christopherson, Paul Sweeney.

如果我们真看到4%或者4.1%的通胀率，心理上我们还没做好准备。

Guys, if we get four or 4.1 inflation, mentally, we're not ready for that.

我觉得应该提前做好准备。

I would suggest.

我不这么认为。

I don't.

美国消费者，就像全球许多消费者一样，这些年一直被通胀压得喘不过气。

And we've this is a US consumer, like a lot of consumers around the world have been beat over the head with inflation for a long time now.

这将是整整一代人第一次亲眼看到通胀涨到这么高。

And it'll be the first time a whole generation has seen inflation be that high.

所以他们，大卫，根本不知道该怎么应对。

So they don't David know what

关于这一点，亚历克西斯说得对，对很多人来说，这确实是完全陌生的新情况，对吧？

to do with David, that's a really important point From Alexis, I mean, this is a whole new new for a lot of people, isn't it?

我觉得确实如此，很多在2020年前后步入职场或成年的人，他们的生活经历里一直伴随着较高的通胀。

Well, I I think, yeah, the lived experience for for a lot of people that entered their working lives or their adulthood in, you know, around 2020 has been, you know, elevated inflation.

所以，我们在2022年和2023年经历的第一波疫情后通胀，其实得益于过去三四十年的低通胀环境，大家对通胀没那么敏感。

And so I think that the the luxury that we had in 2022 and in 2023 when you had that first wave of of inflation post the COVID reopening was that you had had low inflation for, you know, thirty or forty years.

那时候，人们根本没怎么把通胀当回事。

So people weren't didn't have their backup as much about it.

如果现在再来一波通胀，而且看起来它可能已经开始了，那人们的反应肯定会强烈得多。

And I think that, you know, if we have a a second inflation wave here and it looks like one may be underway, you know, people will be much more sensitive.

这个观点确实很敏锐。

I think that's a that's a astute point.

大卫，基于这样的背景，你对当前美国消费者的看法是什么？

David, given that backdrop, what's your view of The US consumer these days?

说实话，消费者的表现比很多人最初预测的要坚韧得多，尤其是在油价飙升之初。

Well, look, the the consumer, I think, has proven more resilient than a lot of people had anticipated at the outset of this oil price spike.

我前几天看了下同店销售额，同比增长接近百分之十。

Same store sales growth, I was looking at it the other day, is up close to 10% year over year.

今年四月之前，零售额一直保持稳健增长。

We've had solid retail sales growth through through April.

看来消费支出仍在继续，这在一些人看来有点令人费解，毕竟汽油价格涨得这么高。

So it looks like the spending has continued, which I think to some has been a bit of a a puzzle given the higher gasoline prices.

有些人原本以为这会成为明显的拖累。

Some had anticipated would would be more of a drag.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得，税收返还金额增加也是原因之一。

Tax re elevated tax refund checks, I think, are part of the story.

另一个被忽视的方面是信贷增长。

And then I think another undertold part of the story is credit growth.

对吧？

Right?

信贷正在放宽，消费者正通过借贷来弥补。

Credit loosening is is taking place, and consumers are making up for Right.

用信贷来抵消汽油价格上涨的影响。

The higher gasoline prices through through taking out credit.

最后一个问题。

So one final question.

大卫，我总结一下，我得开始预测美联储加息了。

My summary of all this, David Doyle, is I gotta start modeling out a Fed rate increase.

我觉得没错。

I think that's right.

听好了。

Look.

从今年年初开始，我们就一直预计美联储下一步会加息。

We've been calling for a Fed rate the next move for for an increase since the start of the year.

现在是2027年初，但如果数据继续按目前的趋势发展，说不定2026年就得行动了。

You know, right now, we're in early twenty twenty seven, but it's possible if the data continue to evolve in in the way that it has been that have to start moving in in 2026.

所以我觉得接下来几个月，我们会更多地讨论这个问题。

So I I do think that we'll be talking about that more in the months to come.

大卫·多尔，非常感谢你。

David Doyle, thank you so much.

麦格理，早上好。

Macquarie, morning.

你这个总结太到位了，没错。

That was a great summary Yep.

把我们当前的情况说得很清楚。

Of where we are.

现在有这么多干扰，我们在这方面做得还不够。

We're not doing that enough now given all the distractions.

请继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

稍后继续为您带来彭博社的市场观察。

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

您好。

Hello.

我是米歇尔·侯赛因。

I'm Michelle Hussain.

二十多年来，我一直在BBC工作。

And for more than twenty years, I was at the BBC.

关于美军从阿富汗撤军的事。

Military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

虽然我一直播报新闻头条，但我总想走得更远，花更多时间去了解那些塑造世界的人。

But all the time I was delivering the headlines, I wanted to go further than the news of the day, to spend more time with the people shaping our world.

这也是我在这档播客里正在做的事，和来自奈杰尔·法拉奇的人交谈。

And that's what I'm doing here on this podcast, speaking to people from Nigel Farage's

听我说。

Listen.

爱你试一下

Love you trying it

还有科技记者卡拉·斯威舍。

to tech as a journalist Kara Swisher.

科技行业现在简直是在野蛮生长。

And the tech industry is running wild.

你知道的，他们想要的都拿到了，股价也涨了一大截。

You know, they've gotten what they wanted, and they've seen a huge run up in their stock prices.

这里每周都会有一场必不可少的对话，帮你理清这个世界的头绪。

This will be a place where every weekend, you can count on one essential conversation to help make sense of the world.

所以，欢迎收听、订阅彭博周末的《米歇尔·侯赛因秀》，在你常用的播客平台都能找到。

So please join me, listen, and subscribe to the Michelle Hussein Show from Bloomberg weekend, wherever you get your podcasts.

这确实提出了不少有趣的问题。

It certainly ask interesting questions.

您正在收听的是彭博市场观察播客。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

工作日午后七点到十点（东部时间），欢迎收听我们的直播。

Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.

您可以通过苹果CarPlay和安卓Auto，使用彭博商业应用收听，也可以在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

接下来是全球华尔街板块，今天有特别嘉宾。

For Global Wall Street now, this is a treat.

白宫的约瑟夫·拉沃格纳来到我们这里，代表特朗普总统分享见解。

This public service to America at the White House for president Trump, Joseph LaVorgna, joins us.

但可能连特朗普本人也不知道，他早年曾在德意志银行工作，当时负责将宏观经济与固定收益业务结合起来。

But what you don't know and probably president Trump didn't know, he was at Deutsche Bank years ago in a combine that melded economics into fixed income.

我们非常高兴他今天能来，他毕业于瓦萨学院，也在纽约大学做过研究。

We're thrilled he could be with us today with from Vassar and some work at New York University as well.

好吧。

Okay.

我得先把这事说清楚。

I I gotta get this out of the way right now.

我看了高盛的分析，他们关注的是十年期利率的4.60%这个关键水平。

I saw Goldman Sachs treatment, and they look at four point six zero ten years of pivot point.

好吧。

Okay.

我们已经到了，而且来得很快。

We're there, and we're there quickly.

你心里有没有一个十年期收益率的临界点，一旦突破，整个系统就会出问题？

Do you have in your head a ten year yield where the system unravels?

没有。

No.

但我认为利率会上升，汤姆，原因有很多：通胀风险溢价上升、财政部迟早得增加发债规模，而目前市场只预期了一次加息，我觉得可能会有一连串加息，所以收益率还会继续走高。

But I do think rates are going higher, Tom, for a whole host of factors, higher inflation risk premium, the need at some point for treasury to raise more supply, and the fact that the market is really only priced about one tightening, and I could see potentially a series of tightening so yields go higher.

好的。

Okay.

保罗有八个问题。

Paul's got eight questions.

我赶紧问这一个。

I'm gonna get this one in quickly here.

如果收益率上升，价格下跌，这可能说不清楚是好是坏，也可能意味着工资上涨，实际工资提高。

If yields go higher, price down, it can be ambiguous, good or bad, or zag and posing, say you're gonna see a higher wage, a higher real wage.

你认同这种乐观看法吗，还是说会带来压力？

Do you buy that optimism, or is it gonna be stress?

有可能。

It's possible.

我的意思是，人工智能和生产率的提升，确实可能带来更高的工资，因为企业利润占比现在太高了。

I mean, the AI, the productivity story could translate into much higher wages, the corporate share of income is high.

所以希望有一天，这部分能更多地流向劳动者。

So hopefully, at some point, that does slow to workers.

我以前对经济非常乐观，之前还说会迎来一场通缩式增长，这听起来挺有道理的，直到中东战争爆发，一切都变了。

I was very bullish on the economy and was talking in my prior role of a disinflationary boom, which seemed very reasonable until the Middle East war started because I think that completely changed the dynamic.

所以没错，我以前看好增长，觉得通胀会低，利率会降，美联储也会放松，但现在这些预期全被打乱了。

So yes, I'm bullish on, I was bullish on growth in terms of being low and non inflationary and rates coming down and the Fed easing, all that's kind of thrown by the wayside.

至于收益率涨到什么水平会击垮系统，我们其实说不准。

In terms of what level of yields crack the system, we don't really know.

这本质上是流动性和信心的问题，十年期国债收益率可能到4.75%，也可能到5%，还有太多其他因素在起作用，你也清楚，股市现在太集中了，就靠几家公司撑着。

It's really a liquidity and confidence story, could be four seventy five on 10s, it could be 5% on 10s, and there's so many other dynamics at play and as you're well aware, the narrowness of market, the equity market has been a handful of companies.

总有一天，这种狂热可能会撑不住了。

And at some point, know, that exuberance may itself be stretched.

如果美联储继续收紧，金融条件突然收紧，风险偏好一变，局势可能迅速崩盘。

So if the Fed's tightening, financial conditions suddenly tighten, risk appetite changes and it could unravel quickly.

乔，你的笔记里提到通胀是个问题。

Joe, in your notes, you say inflation is a problem.

我想我们的观众和听众大多都会同意你的看法。

I think most of our viewers and listeners would agree with you.

你觉得这问题还会持续多久？

How long is it gonna be a problem, you think?

这是个好问题。

That's a great question.

战争什么时候能结束？这些供应链瓶颈又得多快才能缓解？

I mean, when's the war gonna end and how quickly can these bottlenecks stop?

你可以把现在的情况看作是一次小型新冠疫情。

I mean, the way to think of this is it's a mini COVID.

我觉得大多数投资者都没意识到这一点，这也让我觉得收益率还会继续上升。

And I think that's what most investors don't understand, which makes me think yields go higher.

我说的小型新冠疫情，指的是严重的供应链中断。

When I say mini COVID, there's major supply chain disruptions.

不只是能源，还有氮肥、塑料原料以及其他一些关键大宗商品。

It's not just energy, it's nitrogen, which relates to fertilizer, different material that go into plastics, other sensitive commodities.

我们从新冠疫情中学到的是，你没法轻易关停油井，没法在这么小的规模上随意停摆，整个系统根本停不下来。

And what we learned during COVID is you just can't turn wells off, you just can't shut this on a much, much smaller scale, but you can't just turn the system off.

就像开灯一样，系统会自动恢复。

And like a light switch, it automatically goes back.

但我觉得债券市场还没完全意识到这一点。

And the market is, I don't think the bond market isn't fully appreciative of that.

乔·拉沃格纳，SMBC日兴证券，今天本该也在场，我们接着聊这个话题，你可是亲身在白宫经历这些的。

Joe LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities, surely could be with us today, and we continue here, I guess, the arch idea, and you live this at the White House.

这位总统一向喜欢大规模刺激政策。

This is a president who likes joint stimuli all the time.

名义GDP持续增长超过5%。

We've got a nominal GDP popping 5% plus persistently there.

通胀远高于美联储的目标，情况就是这样。

We've got, you know, inflation well above the Fed target and all that.

我们是不是已经进入了一个靠刺激驱动的新常态，直到它再也撑不住为止？

Are we just living in a new stimulus driven milieu and it goes until it goes?

有可能，汤姆。

We might, Tom.

但如果真是这样，那通胀预期就得重新调整了。

But if that's the case, then, you know, inflation expectations need to be reset.

利率曲线需要上移，才能反映你刚才说的这种环境。

They need a higher term structure rates to reflect the environment you just described.

所以，只能二选一。

So it's either one or the other.

要么经济能实现不引发通胀的增长，最终让美联储把利率降到中性水平；要么

Either the economy is going to produce non inflationary growth, and eventually the Fed can get rates to neutral or

没错，那种情况确实发生了。

Right, that worked out.

我们现在处于一种债务占GDP比重上升、通胀持续高于美联储目标的环境。

We're in a regime where you've got rising debt to GDP, higher inflation relative to where the Fed's target is.

这样一来，美联储就不会降息，利率就会维持在更高水平。

And that would be in the Fed's not cutting, and that's a higher rate regime.

你觉得这种模式意味着利率要上调整整一个百分点吗？

Do you perceive that model is a 100 basis point shift?

抱歉，刚才用了太多专业术语。

Sorry, folks, jargon.

利率曲线整体上移一个百分点，还是说可能会像六十年代那样，彻底回到沃尔克之前的那种状态？

A one percentage point shift up in the curve, or could it be more sixties like can be a real shift into pre Volker?

六十年代的情况嘛，汤姆，你知道的，那是非常缓慢的周期性变化。

Well, in the sixties is very, as you know, Tom, it's very gradual as cyclical.

随着六十年代向七十年代过渡，通胀的底部水平也在逐步抬高。

The the floor on inflation with saw higher cyclical floors as you move through the sixties into the seventies.

我的判断是，更可能是后者，也就是大概一百个基点的重新定价。

Best guess, it's the latter that it would be like maybe, let's say a 100 basis points repricing.

这个数字挺整齐的，好记。

It's a nice round number.

但你说，会不会持续得更久一些？

But, you know, could it be something longer?

也不是没可能。

It's possible.

过去几年，通胀率一直比美联储的目标高出约75个基点。

I mean, in the last couple of years, inflation is running about 75 basis point above the Fed's target.

接下来几个月，情况还会进一步上升。

We're gonna go higher than that in the next few months.

那什么时候能结束呢？

When could it end?

也许到秋天就能看到好转？

Maybe by the fall?

拭目以待吧。

We'll see.

我的意思是，问题在于，AI在短期内到底能多大程度缓解通胀？

I mean, dis I guess the question is how disinflationary is AI in the short term?

实际上，它可能因为数据中心建设和能源消耗加剧了我们面临的问题。

May actually be contributing to the problems we have to the data center build out and energy usage.

但从长远来看，它大概还是能压低通胀的。

Longer term is probably disinflationary.

新任美联储主席上任了。

We've got a new Fed chairman.

他大概觉得有压力得把利率降下来。

Presumably, he feels a little pressure to get rates down.

但数据啊，

But, boy, the data

这问题好像没什么好质疑的，保罗。

doesn't Great seem question, Paul.

我这儿有个重磅消息要公布。

I'm gonna make some news here.

你是在为美联储的职位面试吗？

Are you interviewing for a position at the Fed?

不是。

No.

我没在申请美联储的职位。

I'm not interviewing for the position at the Fed.

不是。

No.

顺便说一下，我和他们接触过，挺熟的。

By the way, the and I've I've gotten to know them.

我觉得他们那帮人都是美联储的。

Think they're a bunch of Fed people.

这份工作最棒的一点就是这个。

That was one cool thing about the job.

那里有很多特别出色的人。

There's a lot of super talented people there.

凯文·沃尔什一定会干得很出色。

Kevin Walsh will do a great job.

我对这一点很有信心。

I'm very confident of that.

但我看不出凯文怎么才能合理地提出降息的理由。

However, I don't see how Kevin's gonna make a plausible case for rate cuts.