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我是弗朗辛·拉克鲁瓦，一名获奖记者，我推出了一个新的播客，叫《弗朗辛·拉克鲁瓦的领导者》，由彭博播客出品。

I'm Francine Lacroix, an award winning journalist, and I've got a new podcast, Leaders with Francine Lacroix from Bloomberg Podcasts.

我采访过从国家元首到时尚偶像等各种人物，聊他们对当下新闻的看法，但我一直很好奇，这些人在领导岗位上究竟是什么样的。

I've interviewed everyone from heads of state to fashion icons about the news of the moment, but I've always been curious who are these people as leaders.

我觉得领导力没有唯一正确的做法。

I don't think there's one right way to be a leader.

做决定。

Make decisions.

一个糟糕的决定，也总比不做决定要好。

A poor decision is always better than no decision.

每两周的星期一收听最新一集。

Listen to new episodes every other Monday.

在你听播客的任何平台关注《弗朗辛·拉克鲁瓦的领导者》。

Follow leaders with Francine Lacroix wherever you get your podcasts.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

这个

This

这是彭博市场观察播客。

is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

工作日早上七点东部时间，通过Apple CarPlay或Android Auto，用彭博商业应用收听我们的直播。

Catch us live weekdays at 7AM eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

您可以在任何播客平台点播收听，或在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

在演播室。

In the studio.

我们非常高兴邀请到迈克尔·普尔弗斯加入我们。

We are thrilled to have Michael Purves with us.

你不是在新英格兰北部吗？

Are you not up north in Northern New England?

现在可是蚊子最猖狂的季节。

Because this is like peak fly season.

没错。

Right.

还没呢。

Not yet.

是的。

Yeah.

再等几周吧。

We'll give it a couple of weeks.

再等几周。

Give it a couple of weeks.

让它干透

Let let it dry

然后晾一晾

out and

全部弄好之后，你就出发吧。

all that, and then away you you go.

我去买了WE牌的冰淇淋。

I so I went to the WE ice cream.

保罗·斯威尼教我的。

Paul Sweeney taught me how.

首先，保罗，昨天VIX是16.27。

The VIX, first of all, Paul, yesterday, 16.27.

昨天有没有人做窗饰操作？

Did we observe window dressing yesterday?

有可能吧。

Maybe.

就在第二季度末的时候。

Right at end of the second quarter.

上半年。

First half.

没错。

Absolutely.

迈克尔·普鲁弗，你怎么看？

Michael Purves, what do you think?

关于股票市场赶上来这件事。

In terms of the equity catching up.

对。

Yeah.

今年确实很不寻常。

Well, it's been a pretty remarkable year.

显然，盈利增长非常出色。

Obviously, earnings growth has been exceptional.

更特别的是，这种异常强劲的盈利增长并不是从低谷反弹，而是在2025年已经非常亮眼的业绩基础上实现的。

And what's even more distinctive about that exception exceptional earnings growth is that it came on the back, not of an earnings trough, but of a very strong 2025 earnings there.

很多策略师都在上调他们的目标价，我这里随便举几个数字。

And, you know, I a lot of strategists are upgrading their price targets, but just to throw out a couple of quick numbers here.

根据彭博一致预期，标普500的未来盈利估计今年迄今已经上涨了近20%。

Forward earnings estimates per Bloomberg consensus on the S and P 500 are up nearly 20% year to date.

这其中可能有一部分是某些大型科技公司对投资的会计处理方式比较特殊造成的。

Now some of that might be some, you know, sort of unusual things with how some of the big tech companies account for some of their investments.

如果我们保守一点来看，就说12%吧。

Even if we take a conservative approach, let's call it 12%.

假设下半年还能再涨同样幅度，再加10%。

Now let's say the second half of the year, we're up the same amount, another 10%.

按现在的市盈率22倍来算，到年底就能到9000点了。

You take today's multiple on that 22 times, and you're at 9,000 Mhmm.

年底的时候。

At the end of the year.

天啊。

Wow.

对吧？

Right?

所以，很多人都在惊呼：这也太夸张了吧。

So, you know, there's a lot of, like, oh my god.

有人已经把目标调到八千了。

Someone's upgrading to 8,000.

今年看到九千其实并不算离谱。

Well, it's not inconceivable to see 9,000 this year.

这数字确实有点难想象，但真不是空想，是有可能发生的。

And I don't know if anyone's it's it's sort of hard to wrap your arms around that, but it's it's actually a it's it's a real scenario here.

通胀会不会影响这些盈利预测？

Is inflation a risk to some of those earnings forecast?

虽然油价在跌，今天WTI原油才68美元，算是不错了，但很多人还是担心核心通胀太顽固。

Because it seems like even though oil's coming down, we've got WTI crude oil at $68 here today, which is good, but a of lot folks are concerned about some more underlying core sticky inflation.

是的

Yeah.

毫无疑问，我认为通胀无论是否受油价影响，都有充分理由说明它会维持在更高、更持久的水平，我一直以来都是这么讲的。

There's there's no question that I think inflation has been you know, with or without oil, there's there's a strong argument to be made, and I've certainly been making it that inflation is sort of going to a higher, longer place here.

但重要的是要指出，从长期历史来看，通胀并不一定会压低企业盈利。

But I think it's important to point out that if you look at a long term history, that inflation doesn't necessarily reduce earnings.

而且在某些情况下，它实际上确实会——是的。

And in some in some cases, it actually Yeah.

并不是说通胀会拉低盈利。

Didn't, you know, inflates earnings.

没错。

We Yep.

我们去星巴克的时候。

We go into Starbucks.

我们买咖啡用的是名义上的钱，而不是实际购买力的美元。

We buy our coffee with nominal, not real dollars.

对吧？

Right?

开个玩笑。

So kidding.

我还不知道呢。

I didn't know that.

不是这样的。

So no.

不过，保罗，你提的问题和观点确实非常好。

But it but it's I think, Paul, you're raising a a really good question and and and point here.

如果你看看各个行业的盈利预期，自从伊朗战争爆发以来，必需消费品和可选消费品这两个最明显会受到冲击的行业。

If you look at, earnings estimates across sectors, the, you know, since, you know, the Iran war broke out, staples and and, consumer discretionary, the two most obvious, you know, sectors to be hurt by this.

即便如此，它们的未来盈利如今仍然高于年初的水平。

And even then, their earnings you know, their their forward earnings are still up or higher today than they were back at the beginning of the year.

保罗，我本来想一开始就提这个的。

I was gonna do this at the start, Paul.

我现在就来做。

Let me do it right now.

过去一年，WEIGO上涨了20%，等等。

One year trailing, WEIGO, up 20 wait.

我得把屏幕挪一下。

I gotta move the screen.

保罗教我怎么操作，结果我搞得一团糟。

Paul taught me how to do this, and I'm going down in flames.

答案是道指上涨了18%。

The answer is the Dow up 18%.

没错。

Yep.

罗素2000指数，待会儿我们会跟来自美银的吉尔聊聊，涨了38%。

The Russell two thousand, we're gonna talk to Jill here in a moment, from Bank of America up 38%.

对。

Yeah.

它是

It's

我的意思是，有几个人知道这个？

I mean, how many people know that?

我觉得很多人并不知道。

I think a lot of people don't.

我也不清楚。

I don't know that.

那你怎么看当前市场的波动性，迈克尔？

I mean, so how do you think about volatility in this market, Michael?

人们现在是在买入风险资产吗？

I mean, are people buying risk here?

还是在买保险对冲？

Are they buying protection?

他们到底在做什么？

What are they doing here?

是的。

Yeah.

最近，你看到VIX已经回落了。

Well, very recently, you've seen, you know, the VIX come in.

波动率风险溢价已经收窄到让人不太安心的水平。

You've seen the the volatility risk premium shrink to levels that are not don't make you particularly comfortable.

所以我觉得，确实有这种说法。

There so I I do think there's sort of an argument that, yes.

明白了。

Okay.

VIX现在处于它长期区间的一个较低位置。

The VIX is sort of, you know, towards the lower point of its longer term range.

像看跌-看涨偏度这样的指标，也没有明显升高。

The put call skew metrics like that are not particularly elevated.

这里确实有些自满情绪。

There's some levels of complacency here.

我觉得过去几年一直困扰我的问题是，在科技主导的牛市中，广义上的科技股相关性会变得极低，而且往往长期维持在很低的水平。

I think the problem that I've always struggled through over the last couple of years here is is that in a strong tech led bull market, tech broadly defined, shall we say, the correlations will go very, very, very low and often stay very, very low.

所以，你打算在投资组合里做对冲吗？

So so do you wanna hedge within the book?

对。

Yep.

比如，你是想选一只SECETF，或者干脆买个股，还是打算买VIX看涨期权或者标普500看跌期权？

Like, you're you know, get with a SEC ETF or or more perhaps a single stock, or do you wanna buy VIX calls or S and P puts?

买标普500看跌期权当保险，这事儿一直很难搞，我觉得以后也会一直这样。

It's it's buying you know, just just buying S and P puts as an insurance policy is a very it's been very tricky, and I think that's gonna stay the case.

看看这位总统的薪酬，比普通岗位高得多，你知道的。

Witness a president doing better in compensation than the normal, you know

一年的收入。

Head of a year.

政府职位，年薪28万5千美元，或者类似吧。

G g hyphen job, you know, 285,000 a year or whatever.

我想他表现得比不错还要好。

I guess he's doing better than good.

我们之所以表现得比不错还要好，是因为一系列刺激措施。

We're doing better than good because of a set of stimuli.

现任国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特博士，现在正和玛丽亚讨论4%的增长率。

Kevin Hassett right now, the National Economic Council director, doctor Hassett's over with Maria talking about 4% growth.

5%、6%，甚至敢说达到7%的名义GDP，像香蕉共和国那样。

5%, 6%, dare I say Banana Republic, 7% nominal GDP.

这健康吗？

Is that healthy?

嗯，从实际情况来看，我不确定他指的是4%的实际增长率。

Well, look, in terms of, yeah, I don't know if the 4% real if that's what he was saying, there.

但我觉得，目前我们的名义GDP更多是被通胀推高，而不是来自实际增长，虽然人们常提到‘滞胀’这个词。

But I think right now, our our our our complexion of nominal GDP is a little bit more skewed towards inflation than growth, but it's not particularly you know, people throw out the term stagflation.

这还能控制得住。

It's manageable.

是的

Yeah.

如果你看看‘滞胀’这个词是怎么来的，它出现在上世纪七十年代末，当时名义GDP增长10%，其中通胀高达12%，而实际增长却是负的2%。

If you look at what the term stagflation was coined in the late nineteen seventies in reference to nominal GDP of 10% that was 12% inflation and minus 2% growth.

那才是真正的滞胀。

That's what's real stagflation was.

所以，就像我们之前说的，看看企业盈利情况。

So just look at corporate earnings like we were talking about.

过去几年，即便面对各种通胀，企业收入依然实现了增长。

They have been able to grow through all sorts of all sorts of inflation over the last few years.

过去几年，企业的利润率也成功应对了这场通胀。

The the margins have been able to manage through this inflation over the last few years.

当然，总收入也从通胀中获益了。

And, of course, the top line has benefited from inflation.

所以，如果我们未来几年实际增长2%，通胀3%，我觉得这将为整体经济创造一个相当稳健的环境。

So so, look, you know, if we're if we end up being, you know, 2% real, 3% inflation over the next couple of years, I think that's gonna set the stage for, you know, a pretty solid, broadly speaking, economic environment.

所以VIX低于17的时候，你今天会买新股票吗？

So the VIX under 17, would you acquire new shares today?

我这话听起来像约翰·坦普尔顿。

I sound like John Templeton.

我在努力理解。

I'm trying.

是的。

Yeah.

你具体说的是哪些股票？

You know, what shares are you talking about?

比如标普500，如果你只是想每个月定期加仓，当作一种长期储蓄方式。

Because, you you know, the S and P 500, you know, if you wanna sort of, you know, just keep adding every every month type of thing as a Right.

在个人长期储蓄的场景下。

You know, in a retail type long term savings context.

当然可以。

Sure.

我觉得真正关键的问题是，你怎么判断资金在不同板块之间的轮动？

I think I think, you know, the real story is is is is how how are you, you know, gauging gauging the rotations?

你认为这次半导体的涨势还能持续下去吗？

Do you believe this semiconductor rally is gonna continue a pace or not?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得真正的重点就在这里。

That's really where the I think the the story is.

我还有一个最后的问题。

I got one final question.

斯夸姆湖那边的房地产现在是不是太离谱了？

Squam Lake, is the real estate stupid up there now?

要是住在湖边，那确实贵得离谱。

If you're on the lake, it is.

对。

Yeah.

如果住在湖边，房价简直离谱。

If you're on the lake, it's like stupid pricing.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

现在连亨利·方达都别想买个小木屋了。

Henry Fonda couldn't slip in right now for a cottage.

没错。

Yeah.

But, you know, Boston radiates a lot of its success north.

But, you know, Boston radiates a lot of its success north.

是的。

Yeah.

萨姆湖的 median sales price，现在差不多五百九十万美元，就为了亨利·方达那间小木屋。

The median sales price, Squam Lake, sits around 5,900,000 for Henry Fonda's cottage.

感谢迈克尔·帕弗斯的分享。

Michael Purves, thank you so much.

请继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

稍后继续为您带来彭博市场观察的更多内容。

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

你好。

Hi.

我是卡罗尔·马瑟，今天为您带来一个实用小贴士，帮您随时掌握市场动态。

I'm Carol Masser with a helpful tip to keep you plugged in throughout the market day.

订阅彭博的《股票动向》报告。

Subscribe to the stock movers report from Bloomberg.

这些都是简短的音频节目，时长不超过五分钟，直接推送到您的播客订阅源。

These are short audio episodes, five minutes or less, delivered right to your podcast feed.

《股票动向》会为您梳理华尔街当日的涨跌个股，并解析推动这些波动的关键数据。

Stock movers fills you in on the day's winners and losers on Wall Street and tells you about the and data that's driving those gains and losses.

整天盯着屏幕上看行情滚动，何必呢？

Why spend all day watching tickers scroll across your screen?

赶紧在苹果、Spotify，或者你听播客的任何平台订阅《股票动向》吧。

Subscribe to stock movers today on Apple, Spotify, anywhere else you listen.

你正在收听的是彭博市场观察播客。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

工作日午后七点到十点，我们现场直播。

Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.

通过彭博商业应用，在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听。

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

也可以在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

Or watch us live on YouTube.

这可是大家翘首以盼的大事。

This is hugely, hugely anticipated.

保罗责备我，转过身对我说：嘿。

Paul chastises me, turns to me, and says, hey.

真蠢。

Stupid.

我们对小盘股的关注还不够。

We're not doing enough on small caps.

吉尔·凯里·霍尔，保罗，她占着有利位置。

Jill Carey Hall, Paul, owns the high ground.

你为什么不请她来谈谈？

Why don't you bring her in

现在就请她来？

right now?

当然可以。

Absolutely.

吉尔·凯里·霍尔，美国股票策略师，同时也是美银小盘股策略负责人。

Jill Carey Hall, US equity strategist and head of the small cap strategy at Bank of America.

今年小盘股表现不错。

Small caps are having a good year this year.

它们表现不错。

They're Good.

我的意思是，

I mean,

确实如此。

they are.

谢谢。

Thank you.

真没想到。

Wow.

终于，小盘股涨到了标普指数的两倍。

Finally, two x kind of the S and P.

这是怎么回事呢？

What's going on

市场上发生了什么？

out there?

其实它们表现不佳已经很久了，整整十多年都是这样。

Well, it's been a long time where they've been underperforming, I mean, really for over a decade.

现在呢，有些周期性的积极信号出现了，因为它们经历了一段盈利低迷期，终于开始回暖，而且美国制造业复苏也真正落地了。

And, you know, right now, you have some some cyclical positives because they they've been in an earnings recession, finally started to come out of that, and you've had the manufacturing recovery in The US finally take hold.

ISM制造业指数，是和罗素2000指数相关性最强的宏观指标。

The ISM manufacturing indicators, the the single most correlated macro indicator with the Russell 2,000.

是吗？

Oh, is that right?

没错。

Okay.

对。

Yeah.

我们曾经分析过三五十个不同的宏观指标。

When we've looked at like 30 or 50 different macro indicators.

所以制造业对罗素2000的影响真的很大。再加上油价上涨，罗素2000里有不少行业是受益于油价走高的，而不是像消费行业那样被油价推高拖累。

So manufacturing actually matters a lot for for that And then you had, you know, oil prices higher, the the Russell 2,000 actually has more exposure to industries that benefit from higher oil than the consumer industries that that get hurt by it.

而且，这次的表现比平时更集中一些。

And then, you know, performance was actually a bit more concentrated than usual.

你看那些表现最好的股票，其实主要是那些与AI基础设施相关的主题股，它们贡献最大。

So when you look at a lot of the top performers, it was actually some of the thematic AI infrastructure stocks that were some of the biggest contributors.

尽管今年这个指数已经涨了不少，但里面还是有些部分赶不上来。

So even though the index is up so much this year, I think there are parts of the index that could still play catch up.

你知道，医疗板块一直表现不佳，但并购活动确实多了起来。

You know, health care has been underperforming, but m and a activity Yes.

我们之前觉得小盘股里的医疗和生物科技没什么吸引力，但现在终于开始有起色了。

And and health care and biotech had not looked particularly attractive in our work in small caps, but finally are starting to.

回报率低，甚至没利润。

The rep is there's no profit or less profit.

利润在表现好和表现差的罗素2000公司之间是怎么分布的？

How does profit play across successful and less successful Russell two thousand?

对。

Yeah.

这个指数里，大约三分之一的公司目前还没有盈利。

The the index is, you know, about a third of the companies are non profitable.

这在历史上算是相当高的水平了。

So that is historically elevated.

我们刚经历完两次盈利衰退，一次是疫情，另一次是从2022到2023年这场。

We we obviously just went through two earnings recessions, COVID, and then the recent one that started in, you know, 2022, 2023.

而且2021年还赶上一波IPO热潮，很多没盈利的公司被纳入了指数。

And you also had an IPO boom in in 2021 that caused a lot of nonprofitable stocks to get added.

没有盈利的股票数量确实偏高。

The the amount of stocks that don't have earnings is elevated.

但现在已经开始回落了。

It's starting to come down.

就连生物科技领域，也达到了十二年来最好的质量水平，越来越多公司开始盈利，走向成熟。

And even for an area like biotech, biotech is actually the highest quality it's been in about twelve years, you're starting to see more companies turn profitable, get more mature.

但过去一年左右，小盘股指数里确实出现了一段前所未有的现象：低质量公司表现反而更好。通常来说，作为小盘股投资者，你更希望持有高质量、能盈利的公司，因为长期来看，这类股票表现更优，但过去这一年却恰恰相反。

But we did see this sort of, you know, unprecedented period of low quality outperformance within the small cap index over the past year or so, where, you know, usually, if you're a small cap investor, you own you wanna own higher quality stocks because the the profitable stocks, the higher quality ones do tend to do better over the long term, but that's not what we saw over the last year or so.

所以，这种偏离三个标准差的情况，加上低质量股票的大幅跑赢，现在可能为下半年高质量股票在小盘股中重新表现良好铺平了道路。

So that that kind of three standard deviation event and how much low quality stocks outperformed, I think now kind of paves the way that we could go back to a more normal environment where higher quality stocks work within small caps in the second half.

我刚入行的时候就学到，SMID就是小盘和中盘的合称。

I learned early in my career SMID means small, mid cap.

哦。

Oh.

这算是

That's a

一个不错的说法。

cool term.

对。

Mhmm.

吉尔，今年上半年，你更偏向小盘股而不是中盘股。

Now for you, Jill, in the first half, you preferred small versus mid cap.

对。

Mhmm.

那在下半年，你认为中盘股会比小盘股表现更好，是吗？

Now in the second half, you're saying mid cap versus small.

为什么这么说？

Why?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得虽然我们仍然认为小盘股和中盘股在下半年都有可能跑赢大盘股，但你还是预期小盘和中盘的盈利增长会明显提速，达到能超越大盘股盈利增速的水平。

I think even though we do still think that both small and mid caps could outperform mega caps in the second half, you're you're still expecting to see a a big profits pick up in in small and mid caps, to kinda similar levels that should outpace large cap profits in the second half.

上半年小盘股的表现要好得多。

We're we we saw much better performance for small caps in the first half.

所以从表现来看，现在中盘股更有追赶的空间，尤其是在盈利水平相近的情况下。

So, I think just performance wise, there's more catch up potential now for mid caps on a similar level of profits.

而且我们看到，美联储加息的预期已经开始反映在市场中了。

And we're seeing, Fed hikes start to get priced into the market.

我们高盛的经济学家现在预计，美联储今年年底前会加息三次。

Our economists at B of A now expect the Fed will hike three times this year at the end of the toward the end of the year.

罗素2000指数的杠杆率更高，再融资风险也更大，因为它的债务结构更多是短期和浮动利率债务。

Russell two thousand has a lot more leverage, a lot more refinancing risk, given the debt exposure is more towards short term and floating rate debt.

所以考虑到利率上升带来的这些额外风险，我们更倾向于在下半年偏向中盘股，而不是小盘股，就是基于这些原因。

So I think given those increased risks from higher rates, we'd tilt more toward the mid caps than the small caps for the second half just just given those reasons.

管理层，尤其是中盘股公司的，每天都全力以赴。

Executives, Do particularly in mid cap, striving every day.

他们有业绩对赌、股权激励这些机制。

They've got their hurdles or equity kickers and all that.

他们会像大盘股那样做并购吗？

Do they do m and a like big caps?

我的意思是，这两者本质上是一回事，还是完全是两个不同的世界？

I mean, is are they essentially equivalent or is it a whole different world?

现在呢，很多并购交易的目标都是小盘股，而大型企业通常是收购方。

I mean, right now, you know, a lot of the the deal activity is, you know, small caps targets and, you know, a lot of the larger companies are the the acquirers.

比如大型制药公司收购小型生物科技公司，这一直是主要的活跃领域。

So, have a lot of, you know, large, large pharma buying smaller biotech, that's been a key area of activity.

你知道，虽然中期公司里也有一些并购活动，但总体还是大公司收购小公司，而且这些小公司的估值也相对更低。

You know, while you may see some in mid that a lot of the activity is, you know, large buying small, and that's where the the relatively cheaper valuations are as well.

你知道，巨型公司是估值最高的板块。

You know, mega caps are the most expensive area.

小公司相对来说估值没那么高，不过现在小盘和中盘的估值已经差不多了。

Small caps are kind of the least stretched, although now small and mid

算是

are kind

差不多在同一个水平上交易。

of trading similar values.

你在拉法耶特学院读的双专业真是酷极了。

You have one of the coolest double majors going here at Lafayette.

你是学经济的，然后决定再辅修英语？

You in economics and said, I'm going to take a double major in English?

还是你原本学英语，后来决定再辅修经济？

Or were you in English saying, I'm going to take a double major in economics?

我主修经济和数学，后来决定放弃数学，转而选了英语。

I was was econ and math, and then I decided to drop the math and pick up English.

我一直喜欢写作，所以觉得既然要选写作课，不如干脆把英语也做成第二专业。

I I always I always liked writing, so I decided if I was taking some writing courses, might as well make it a second major.

你倒是去研究薛定谔方程和微分方程了。

You got to your Schrodinger equations and differential equations instead.

我想我会

Think I'll

学习的。

study Yeah.

我学到微积分三的时候，就觉得差不多了，不想再继续了。

I got to calc three, and then I said, I think I've had enough.

这真不错。

That's great.

做个外人吧。

Be a stranger.

吉尔·凯瑞大厅。

Jill Carey Hall.

谢谢。

Thank you.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

我得提一下，美国银行对沃尔什先生将要采取的行动所做出的预测——认为利率会上调三次——这真是个例外的判断。

And I do wanna mention the Bank of America call on what mister Walsh is gonna do is really an outlier call up to rate increases of three.

昨天我们也从美国银行的贾普·巴哈维那里听到了类似的说法。

We heard that yesterday from Jeep of Bahavi of Bank of America as well.

请继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

稍后继续为您带来彭博市场观察的更多内容。

More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

即时获取全球最新资讯。

Get the latest news from around the world delivered to you in an instant.

立即订阅彭博新闻，按你的时间安排接收最新资讯。

Subscribe to Bloomberg News now and get news when you want it on your schedule.

这些是当天重要新闻的简短音频报道，几分钟就能听完。

These are short audio reports on the day's top stories that you can listen to in just a few minutes.

让彭博新闻Now成为你获取全球头条并理解背景的可靠来源。

Make Bloomberg News Now your trusted source for the latest global headlines with context.

它全天24小时可用，无论何时需要，都能在你的智能手机或智能音箱上收听。

It's available twenty four hours a day anytime you need it right on your smartphone or smart speakers.

今天就去苹果播客、Spotify，或你常用的任何平台订阅彭博新闻。

To Bloomberg News now today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

你正在收听彭博监控播客。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

工作日傍晚七点到十点（东部时间），我们现场直播。

Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.

通过彭博商业应用，在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听。

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

或者在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

Or watch us live on YouTube.

现在和我们在一起的是林赛·皮加扎。

Lindsey Piegza with us right now.

她是首席经济学家，几年前我曾把她评为年度经济学家，她的观点总体上是乐观的。

Chief economist, She was my economist of the year a couple of years ago and around that is an optimism.

林赛，再强调一次，无论是过去一年还是过去六个月，股市的定价都比实际情况要好。

Lindsey, once again, one year trailing, six months trailing, the equity markets price better than good.

你对此怎么回应？在施蒂费尔，你如何看待外界普遍存在的悲观情绪？

How do you respond and what do you see at Stifel of the gloom that's out there?

我不确定这是否算得上悲观，但我觉得，当谈到眼下可能需要应对严重高企的通胀时，确实有很多值得担忧的地方。

Well, I don't know if it's necessarily gloom, but I think there's a lot of reason to be concerned when you're talking about potentially tackling dangerously elevated inflation at this point.

今年年初，我们确实看到了超出预期的增长速度。

Now we did see a stronger than expected pace of growth at the start of the year.

劳动力市场的状况也略好于预期。

We are seeing slightly better than expected conditions in the labor market.

我们已经开始看到通胀的势头有所放缓，但仍然存在不少担忧，美联储需要密切关注各种状况，及时调整政策，以控制通胀。

We have started to see some momentum in inflation cool, but there's still a lot of concern and a lot of conditions that the Fed needs to be aware of and adjust policy appropriately to keep inflation in check.

保罗，这里有一条关键信息。

I mean, a single line here, Paul.

对。

Yep.

皮加扎，来自施蒂费尔，这篇是劳伦·亨德森写的。

Piegza, Stifel, Lauren Henderson wrote this.

这不是林赛写的。

Lindsey didn't write this.

私人投资数据被上修至7.9%。

Gross private investment revised up to 7.9%.

不错。

Nice.

说的是私人投资，不是别的。

Mean, it's Private investment.

有一种氛围

There's a spirit

在外面。

out there.

还有林赛，

There And Lindsey,

我们几周前第一次听到了美联储主席沃尔什的讲话。

I mean, we heard from the Fed chairman, Walsh, for the first time a couple of weeks ago.

你从那番话里得到了什么启发？当你思考未来央行政策走向时。

What did you take away from that as as as you think about central bank policy going forward?

其中一个要点是

Well, one of the things that

我注意到他的立场变得更加中立了。

I took away was he he took a much more neutral stance.

他的语气比市场原先预期的要中性得多，从过去那个对抗通胀的鹰派，转向了与政府保持一致，呼吁政策转向，并显著降低政策力度。

There was a much more neutral tone than I think the market had originally been pricing in in terms of that shift from a previous inflation hawk to now aligning himself with the administration, calling for a regime change and a markedly lower level of policy.

我认为从中期到长期来看，我们肯定会推动货币政策转向更低的利率。

I think it it over the medium to longer term, I think we're certainly will try to steer the monetary policy shift towards lower interest rates.

但在短期内，他似乎承认了高通胀的现实。

But in the near term, he he seems to be acknowledging the reality of elevated inflation.

所以，最坏的情况是，他可能会在谈话中淡化加息的可能性，即使委员会似乎正朝着这个方向走。

So perhaps at worse, what he does is downplay the potential for in conversation around rate hikes even if the committee seems to be moving in that direction.

凯文·维施在彭博电视早九点的节目中，与央行行长贝利、拉加德女士以及萨拉·海森森在辛特拉展开讨论。

Kevin Wirsch on Bloomberg Surveillance at 09:00 hour with the tag team governor Bailey, madam Lagarde, Sarah Heissen holding court there in Sintra.

这简直就是欧洲的杰克逊霍尔会议。

This is like the Jackson Hole of Europe.

它就在里斯本附近。

It's in near Lisbon as well.

安娜·王刚刚发布了相关文章。

Anna Wong just publishes on this moments ago.

我正一边看一边跟上进度。

I'm reading it really as we go.

今天早上是安娜·王和安德鲁·塞克尔。

Anna Wong and Andrew Saker this morning.

林赛，你希望从凯文·沃尔什那里听到什么？

Lindsey, what do you wanna hear from Kevin Walsh?

就像王博士说的，他是鹰派还是鸽派？

Is he a hawk or is he a dove as doctor Wong puts it?

我觉得从长期来看，他会展现出非常鸽派的立场。

Well, I again, I I think longer term, he he's going to reveal his very dovish colors.

但考虑到当前通胀水平如此之高，他现在保持中立语气是必要的，否则可能动摇市场对通胀的预期。

But I think at this point, it's given the reality of such heightened level of of inflation that he maintains a more neutral tone as as otherwise this could risk on anchoring inflation expectations.

如果人们觉得新领导层会容忍极高的通胀，只为把利率降下来，那问题就大了。

If there's a sense that the new leadership would tolerate extremely elevated inflation in order to get us down to a lower interest rate environment.

所以，他保持中立语气至关重要。

So it's gonna be very important for him to strike a neutral tone.

不过，我认为他已经在重新审视美联储的许多做法了。

That being said, I I do think that he's already in the the market of revising or or at least looking at many of the things that the Fed does.

从资产负债表管理，到美联储使用数据的方式，当然还有沟通策略。

Everything from balance sheet management to the Fed's use of data to, of course, communication.

这对市场来说是个重大变化——把声明缩短到大约130个词，而市场原本习惯的是四到五倍长的声明，以便更清楚地传达美联储对经济的看法和对未来政策的预期。

That was a big change for the market, Dropping that statement down to about a 130 words when the market is used to a statement four or five times that length in order to give us more color around what the Fed is viewing the economy as and what the the committee is expecting from policy going forward.

Lindsey，明天我们会看到新的劳动力数据，非农就业报告。

Lindsey, we're gonna get some more labor data tomorrow, non farm payrolls.

你预期会怎样？

What are you expecting?

你觉得美联储怎么看劳动力市场？

How do you think the Fed is thinking about the labor market?

我预计新增就业人数会少一些，大概在12万左右。

Well, I do expect payrolls to increase a lesser, about 120, 120,000.

这仍然是一个非常积极、非常稳健的数字，只是比五月时慢了一些。

So still a very positive, very solid number, but slower than what we saw in May.

失业率可能维持在4.3%左右，这已经是连续第四个月保持在这个水平了。

The unemployment rate likely to remain steady around that 4.3% rate as it has been now for the past four consecutive months.

而平均每小时工资仍维持在3.5%左右的年增长率。

And average hourly earnings really remaining around that three and a half percent annual mark.

所以总的来说，当我们看GDP数据和依然稳健的招聘节奏时，

So I think overall, when we look at these more solid conditions in terms of GDP, a still solid pace of hiring.

对美联储来说，通胀高企至少是不利的。

I think for the fed, absolutely elevated inflation is unfavorable to say the least.

但这些相对强劲的数据，可能会迅速打消美联储内部任何重新转向鹰派的倾向，尤其是当他们又开始谈论海外冲突导致的能源价格冲击只是暂时影响时。

But these relatively sturdy numbers, I think, can serve to quickly derail any sort of hawkish sentiment at the Fed if it starts to bring back the conversation of a temporary or transitory impact from Mhmm.

海外冲突引发的能源价格冲击。

The the energy price shock as a result of the conflict overseas.

每次我们学到新东西，都觉得这是暂时的。

I it's a Tito's and Tang transitory every time we learn.

先喝一口吧。

Take a little sip there.

Lindsey，美联储使命的另一面——劳动力市场，你总体怎么看？

Lindsey, how about the other side of the Fed's mandate, labor market here, just in general?

你对人工智能和未来的劳动力市场怎么看？

How do you think about AI and the labor market going forward?

是正面影响、负面影响，还是现在下结论还太早？

Is it a net positive, negative, too soon to tell?

我们真的说不准。

We just don't know.

但我们知道的是，从宏观角度看，人工智能确实在提升生产力和效率，这就是它的优势。

But what we do know is that when we look at it from a top line perspective, there's no doubt that AI is driving higher productivity, efficiency, that's the gain.

这对企业来说是实实在在的好处。

That's the benefit for businesses.

但如果我们讨论的是可能让数百万甚至上千万岗位消失，哪怕采取中立的估算，今年就预计会取代大约九百万个工作岗位。

But when we talk about potentially displacing millions upon millions of jobs, in fact, taking a middle of the road analysis, there's an expectation of displacing about 9,000,000 jobs this year alone.

我们绝不能低估这件事对劳动力市场长期的冲击，无论是对现在的还是未来的工作人群。

We cannot underappreciate then the longer term disruptive factors that this will have in the labor market, both for current and future labor market participants.

但事实上，很多人对这个强劲的经济和当前市场水平都判断错了。

But but the fact is, did I think a lot of people got wrong this resilient economy, and just simply where the levels of the market is.