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如果你做投资、经营企业或者管理资金，光看一面可不够。
If you invest, lead a business, or allocate capital, one-sided views aren't enough.
和我一起，巴克莱全球研究主管布拉德·罗戈夫，来到《另一面》播客节目。
Join me, Brad Rogoff, the global head of research at Barclays, on the flip side podcast.
每个月，我都会和团队里的一位专家分析师正面交锋，辩论那些最重要的经济和市場议题。
Each month, I go head to head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most.
从人工智能引发的通胀到股票和信贷趋势，每场辩论都能帮你看到新闻头条可能忽略的东西。
From inflation in AI to equity and credit trends, each debate helps you see what headlines might miss.
去你平时听播客的地方找找看有没有它的另一面。
Find the flip side wherever you get your podcasts.
人工智能正进入一个最具决定性的阶段，规模、安全和主权将决定谁领先、谁落后。
AI is entering its most consequential phase where scale, safety, and sovereignty will determine who leads and who lags.
11月2号和3号来伦敦参加彭博科技大会吧，来自商业、金融和政策领域的全球领袖们将探讨塑造人工智能未来的关键权衡。
Join Bloomberg Tech in London on November second and third as global leaders across business, finance, and policy examine the defining trade offs shaping the future of AI.
感谢我们的冠名赞助商Salesforce，以及支持赞助商IDA爱尔兰和施耐德电气。
Thank you to our presenting sponsor Salesforce and supporting sponsors IDA Ireland and Schneider Electric.
更多信息请访问 Bloomberg Live 点 com 斜杠 Tech London。
Learn more at Bloomberg Live dot com slash Tech London.
彭博音频工作室。
Bloomberg Audio Studios.
播客。
Podcasts.
电台。
Radio.
新闻。
News.
这是
This
彭博观察播客。
is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日东部时间早上7点，通过苹果CarPlay或安卓Auto，使用彭博商业应用收听我们的直播。
Catch us live weekdays at 7AM eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
随时随地按需收听，或者在我们的YouTube频道上观看直播。
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
阿波罗的托尔斯滕·斯洛克加入了我们。
Torsten Slok, Apollo joins us.
托尔斯滕，我们现在有三个小时的对话时间。
Now we got a three hour conversation, Torsten.
我们得抓紧时间聊。
We're gonna cram in here.
我准备好了。
I'm ready.
对我来说，最令人震惊和不同寻常的事情是这个名义GDP繁荣的经济。
And to me, the absolutely shock unusual thing is this boom nominal GDP economy.
在美联储会议上，几乎所有人都说，这种情况会持续下去，我们不会看到实际GDP下降。
And in the Fed meeting, pretty much everyone at the Fed says, it's just gonna keep on going, and we're not gonna see any decline in real GDP.
这在我学过的教科书里可没有。
That's not in the textbooks I studied.
不是。
No.
这确实很不寻常，但这是因为我们有两个非常重要的顺风因素。
It is really unusual, but that's because we have two very important tailwinds.
当然，我们有AI支出热潮。
We have, of course, the AI spending boom.
GDP通常增长2%，而现在有1个百分点的增长来自AI支出热潮，不仅是在数据中心和能源上，还包括在代币上的支出。
GDP normally grows at two, and now one percentage point of growth is coming because of the AI spending boom, not only on data centers and energy, but also spending on tokens.
记住，这些也算进GDP里。
Remember, that also goes into GDP.
消费者工具上的支出，企业工具上的支出。
Spending on tools for consumers, spending on tools for corporates.
所有这些支出，再加上高股价带来的财富效应，对当前的增长都非常非常重要。再加上那项大法案，CBO说会给GDP增加约0.9个百分点，我们就有了一些对利率不敏感的非常重要的顺风因素。
All that spending combined with the wealth effect also coming out of high stock prices is all very very important for growth at the moment, and combining that with the one big bill of a bill, which the CBO says will add about 0.9% to GDP, we have some really really important non sensitive to interest rate tailwinds.
这些顺风因素确实是经济持续表现强劲的关键原因。
And these tailwinds are really the critical reason why the economy Are continues to do so
你预测的名义GDP会继续保持5%的增长，这在Barry Eichengreen所说的金融化红利中显然是有利的，对吧？
you modeling out a continued 5% nominal GDP, which clearly within Barry Eichengreen's financialization benefits the halves?
当然，我们预计增长依然强劲。
Absolutely, we expect still growth to be strong.
而且真正特别的是，正如你刚才提到的，当利率高企时，会打击经济中对利率敏感的领域，比如房地产和汽车。
And what's really unique, as you also just spoke about a minute ago, is that when interest rates are high, it hurts the interest rate sensitive parts of the economy, which is housing and autos.
所以这两个行业现在表现确实不佳，房屋建筑商处于非常低迷的水平，当然汽车行业也不景气，因为签租赁合同的人要付更多钱，因为利率更高了。
So those two sectors are really not doing well with home builders at very low levels at the moment, and of course, the auto sector not doing well either, because people signing leases have to pay more because interest rates are higher.
疫情期间的房贷利率是2.7%。
Mortgage rates during the pandemic were at 2.7.
现在房贷利率基本是7%。
Now mortgage rates are basically seven.
买房变得非常昂贵。
It has become very expensive to buy a house.
买车也变得非常昂贵。
It's become very expensive to buy a car.
这些行业确实不太景气，但跟AI热潮带来的利好，还有那个‘大法案’（One Big Bill）的推动相比，它们的体量还是相对较小的。
Those sectors are not doing well, but those sectors are relatively small compared to the tailwind from the AI boom, and the tailwind also from the One Big Bill for Bill.
所以这里有一句非常重要的话：AI这个事儿最好能成，因为我们仍然需要AI带来非常显著的利好，它是经济表现如此出色的一个关键原因。
So one sentence that's very important here is that this AI thing better work out because we still need some very significant tailwinds coming from AI because it is a very critical reason why the economy does so well.
汤姆，你知道我喜欢骑着我的Vespa小摩托在新泽西海岸线来回兜风，我总能看见成千上万栋房子，大多在 bay 或者河边，都是两百万美元的豪宅。
Tom, you know I love to drive up and down the Jersey Shore on my Vespa, and I always see these thousands, tens of thousands of homes, usually on the bays, the river, $2,000,000 homes.
它们后面还停着价值一百万美元的游艇。
They got a million dollar boat behind them.
我当时就想，这帮人到底是谁啊？
I'm like, who are these people?
后来我才发现，他们都是小企业主。
And I've come to find they're small business owners.
你在新书《无处不在的百万富翁》里引用了最新的一份报告，托尔斯滕，上面显示福布斯年度榜单上美国最富有的400人，他们合计拥有的财富大约有4万亿美元。
And you quote in one of your most recent notes, Torsten, from the new book, The Everywhere Millionaire, it shows that 400 wealthiest Americans on the annual Forbes list, they hold about 4,000,000,000,000 in combined wealth.
相当惊人。
Pretty impressive.
而更大的群体是那些净资产至少一千万美元的私营企业主，他们持有的财富，你猜怎么着，是46.7万亿美元。
While the far larger group of private business owners with at least $10,000,000 in net worth, they hold, get this, $46,700,000,000,000 of worth.
这就是美国经济，对吧？
That is the American economy, isn't it?
这是两位教授的开创性研究，普林斯顿的欧文·西德和芝加哥的埃里克·斯威格，他们研究了去标识化的国税局记录，问：谁是美国的百万富翁？
This is really innovative work by two professors, Owen Seader at Princeton and Eric Swig at Chicago, and what they did was they looked at de identified IRS records and asked, who are the millionaires in The US?
因为普遍印象是，哦，是科技行业，是华尔街，钱都在那里。
Because there is this general impression, oh, this is tech, this is Wall Street, that's where all the money is.
对。
Yep.
但当你真正看看全国的小企业主，那些拥有千万美元以上资产的人，绝大多数都住在那里。
But when you actually look at small business owners across the country, that's where people with 10 plus million, the vast majority are living.
这些人是在全国各地经营餐馆的本地人。
These are people who own restaurants locally across the country.
有开五金店的，有开汽车经销店的。
People who own hardware stores, people who own car dealerships.
实际上，这些地区的财富非常非常可观，正好就是那些企业主所在的地方。
This is actually a very, very substantial amount of wealth in these parts of the country, exactly where those business owners are located.
所以正如你所说，他们做的这项研究确实非常重要，精确地指出了财富在哪里，而从消费者的角度来看，这也很重要，也就是说消费发生在哪里。
So exactly to your point, it is indeed very important work that they have done to exactly look at where is the wealth, and that becomes important from a consumer's perspective, namely where is it also consumption is taking place.
今天全美各地，欧洲的早上好，太平洋沿岸的深夜早上好，托尔斯滕·斯洛克，来自阿波罗全球管理。
Across America today, good morning in the evening of Europe, good morning in the very far evening of the Pacific Rim, Torsten Slok with his Apollo Global management.
托尔斯滕，我想请你谈谈当前的情况。
Torsten, I want you to speak to the moment at hand.
这个担忧，那个担忧，还有那个担忧。
This worry, that worry, that worry.
我想说，机构投资者可能错过了，或者散户只是害怕错过而跟风。
I'm gonna suggest the institutions, maybe you've missed it, or retail's just fear of missing out and onboard.
现在机构界对错失恐惧的衡量标准是什么？
What's the measurement of fear of missing out right now in the institutional community?
嗯，我认为人工智能的故事不仅推动了我们刚才谈到的GDP，而且在过去五年里也推动了标普500指数的大部分回报。
Well, I think that the AI story has been driving so much, not only in the GDP that we just talked about, but the AI story has also driven so much of returns in the S and P 500 over the last five years.
所以这意味着，如果我有60/40的投资组合，我的股票部分基本上就是那10只最大的股票，它们占了标普500的40%。
So that means if I had my sixtyforty portfolio, my equities are basically 10 biggest stocks, make up 40% of the S and P 500.
这基本上就是一个因素，也就是AI。
That's basically one factor, namely AI.
现在再看我投资组合里那40%的固定收益部分，超大规模企业发行了更多的投资级信用债，所以在公开信用市场里，AI也扮演了更大的角色。
If I now look at the 40 part of my portfolio, which is fixed income, hyperscalers are issuing a lot more investment grade credit debt, so therefore in public credit, you also have AI playing a bigger role.
顺便说一句，如果我的投资组合里还有风险投资，以前风投主要是医药、生物科技、处方药，现在87%的风投也都在投AI。
And by the way, if I also have venture capital in my portfolio, venture capital used to be pharma, biotech, prescription drugs, now 87% of venture capital is also AI.
对。
Yep.
所以对于所有投资者来说，无论是散户、家庭、机构还是主权财富基金，我在各地听到的对话都是一样的。
So across the board for investors in retail, households, institutions, sovereign wealth funds, the conversation I'm having everywhere is the same.
也就是说，过去十到十五年我们在金融领域学到的一件事就是因子投资。
Namely, there's one thing that we have learned in finance in the last ten, fifteen years, it's factor investing.
也就是说，你不应该只暴露在一个因子上，而我们现在在2026年醒来，基本上所有人都过度暴露在AI上，尤其是在60/40或更广泛的家庭投资组合中，这意味着如果我们需要改变什么，那就是重新平衡，不要只盯着那一个东西。
Namely, you should not be exposed to just one factor, and we are waking up now in 2026, and we are basically, all of us, overexposed to AI in particular in the sixtyforty or the broader household portfolio, and that means that if we need to change anything, it's rebalancing away from just being exposed to add that thing.
是的，AI确实做了很多了不起的事情。
So yes, AI has done a lot of incredible things.
不过，关于AI部署的速度以及它开始体现在回报上，还有很多疑问。但归根结底，就像我之前说的，AI这事儿最好能成，因为它现在不仅关系到GDP，还因为它在投资组合中占比太高，极大地推动了回报。
There's also still a lot of questions around the speed with which it's being deployed and it's beginning to show up in returns, But the bottom line is, as I said earlier, this AI thing better work out because it is now not only about what's going on in GDP, but it's also driven returns so substantially because it's had such a high concentration in portfolios.
听你这么一说，我在这儿急得不行，天哪，我得分散我的投资组合。
Given what you just said, I'm screaming here, oh my god, I have to diversify my portfolio.
那我该怎么做呢？
How would I do that?
有哪些分散投资的方法？
What are the ways to diversify away?
答案很简单。
Answer is simple.
非AI。
Non AI.
我怎么
How do I
好的，明白了。
get Okay.
那什么是非AI呢？
So what's non AI?
嗯，咱们试试看。
Well, let's try
想想看，我觉得是大宗商品吧。
to think Oh my of commodities, I think.
我知道。
I know.
这值得投资。
It's worth building.
当然，中东的挑战意味着油价仍有上行风险，所以大宗商品、石油、炼油厂是一种思路。
Absolutely, the challenges in The Middle East argue for risk still to the upside for oil prices, so commodities, oil, refineries is one way of looking at it.
当然，另一种思路是更多考虑成长股与价值股的对比，因为很多AI显然是成长股，而价值股则是投资那些真正有盈利的公司。
Of course, other ways of looking at this is really to think more about growth versus value, because a lot of the AI is obviously growth, but value is, of course, investing in companies that actually have earnings.
所以这就是私人信贷和私募股权领域的增长，当然也是广义上的增长，而所有这些，当然都是远离AI的绝对分散投资。
So that's growth in private credit, in private equity, that's growth, of course, also in broad, and all those things, of course, are absolute diversifiers away from AI.
听不清，托尔斯滕·斯洛克，我们可以利用他在欧洲大陆的经验来做这件事。
Inaudible, Torsten Slok, which we can do with his experience of his continental at Europe.
所以今天头条新闻出来了。
So the headline came out here today.
法德利差达到了100个基点，这只是一个里程碑。
France German spread hit a 100 beeps, which is just a milestone.
就像那10000点一样。
It's like that 10,000 as well.
进入秋季，德国分裂，萨克森州投票，巴黎和法国基本上天翻地覆，据我所知。
The tension into the autumn of a fractured Germany with a Saxony vote, with Paris and and France basically turned upside down from what I can tell.
当你和阿波罗管理层及客户交谈时，你如何看待欧洲未来的政治稳定性？
What do you when you're talking to Apollo management and Apollo clients, what is it of the political stability forward you see in Europe?
嗯，两周前我刚去过欧洲，显然，德国选举确实引起了广泛关注。
Well, was just in Europe two weeks ago, and obviously, the German election did get a lot of attention.
而且对我们金融市场来说，问题还在于，当然也开始产生一些影响，甚至可能影响下一位欧洲央行行长是谁，下一位欧洲央行首席经济学家是谁。
And the issue also for us in financial markets is that also, of course, beginning to have some impacts, maybe even who the next ECB president might be, who the next chief economist at ECB might be.
所以即使从政策制定的角度来看，也有一些非常重要的决定需要做出，对吧。
So even from a policy making perspective, there are some very important decisions that need to be made in terms of Right.
欧洲如何应对中国？
How does Europe deal with China?
他们如何处理财政问题，尤其是在法国？
How do they deal with the fact that they have fiscal problems, especially in France?
这些都是非常具有挑战性的时期，对吧。
And these are very challenging times Right.
当然，这就是为什么对你问题的回答是，他们目前还没有明确的答案，而我们在市场上要么必须，对吧。
And of course, that's why the answer to your question is, they do not have clear answers to these issues yet, and that's what we in markets either have to Right.
做出我们的猜测，或者只能看着事态发展。
Make our guesses on or just watch this as this unfolds.
你天生就是乐观派。
You're hardwired glass half full.
这是你从欧洲带出来的魅力之一，欧洲大部分地方都是那种高冷又悲观的大陆。
It's one of your charms coming out of Europe, which is mostly high class, half empty continent.
我想让你跟那些悲观派解释一下，他们现在哪里想错了。
I want you to explain to the gloom crew what they're getting wrong right now.
再说一次，保罗，你难道不同意我吗？
Once again, I mean, Paul, wouldn't you agree with me?
一直是悲观、悲观、悲观，而你知道，我现在离标普500的高点只差2%。
It's been gloom, gloom, gloom, and, you know, I'm I'm I'm 2% from high SPX.
现在就跟那些悲观派说说吧。
Talk to the gloom crew right now.
所以，尽管我们刚才谈到了各种阻力，政治上很有挑战性，当然还有政府债务带来的难题，但欧洲还是有看涨的理由。
So the boom case for Europe, despite all the headwinds that we're talking about here, politically is is challenging, and of course, also the challenging things we've had with government debt.
他们确实有一个优势，那就是国防开支和基础设施开支。
The one thing that they do have going for them is, in particular, defense spending and infrastructure spending.
整个欧洲大陆的政府都在花大笔钱来刺激经济。
So governments across the continent are spending a significant amount of money on boosting their economies.
所以现在这就变成了一个讨论，嗯，有些私营部门的问题其实还行，但很明显，未来几年很多增长都是因为国防开支和基础设施开支的增加。
So now this becomes a discussion around, well, there's some private sector issues that are still doing actually okay, but it's very clear that a lot of the growth that's coming over the next several years is because of the increase in defense spending and because of the increase in infrastructure spending.
嗯，所以这就是我们应该预期的繁荣，也就是说，欧洲应该还是表现不错的。
Well, So, that's the boom that we should be anticipating, namely that Europe should still be doing well.
他们在人工智能方面有什么动作吗？
Are they doing anything on AI?
答案是没多少。
The answer is not much.
没多少。
Not much.
我们就这么说吧，美国是人工智能的生产者，
And let's just talk about it this way, The US is the AI producer,
而
and
而世界其他地方，包括美国，是人工智能的消费者。
and the rest of the world, including US, is the AI Right.
作者。
Author.
这一点很重要，因为你可能是生产者，尤其是如果模型变得商品化，但真正重要的是谁最擅长让资本和劳动力协同工作，用我们的话说，汤姆，因为如果资本和劳动力协同工作，你也会获得更多的生产率提升和全要素生产率的提升。
And that becomes important, because you may be the producer, especially if the models become commoditized, but really it's about who is most smart at having, in our language, Tom, capital and labor work together, because if capital and labor work together, you also therefore get more productivity gains and total factor productivity gains.
这是典型的让-克洛德·特吕谢在谈论欧洲生产率的扩散。
This is classic Jean Claude Truchet talking about the diffusion of productivity in Europe.
他曾经带着法国口音对我说，汤姆，这不是美国。
He said to me once with his French accent, Tom, it's not America.
托尔斯滕·斯洛克。
Torsten Slok.
谢谢。
Thank you.
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Find the flip side wherever you get your podcasts.
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或者也可以在YouTube上观看我们的直播。
Or watch us live on YouTube.
现在连线的是巴黎银行——法国巴黎银行的Meghan Robson，她是美国信用策略主管，当然，她的任务是对美国进行研究。我想请你谈谈，面对法国的紧张局势，你们银行看到了什么情况。
Joining us from the Paris Bank, BNP Paribas right now, and, of course, her mission is a US study is Meghan Robson, head of US credit strategy, and I have to go by responsibility to what you're seeing at your main bank with the tensions of France.
就在刚才，Caroline Conan给我发了封邮件。
Moments ago, Caroline Conan just emailed me.
法德利差达到了一个非常情绪化的整整一个百分点的差距，也就是100个基点。
The French German spread hit the hugely emotional full one percentage point difference called a 100 basis points.
现在法国的紧张局势。
The tension in France right now.
这是央行在行动吗？
Is is the central bank activity here?
还是美国政治上的动荡造成的？
Is all the upset of US politically?
这种情况是不是也在蔓延到其他国家？
Is it expanding out across other nations?
你在法国巴黎银行看到了什么？
What do you see at BNP Paribas?
在法国巴黎银行，我们确实看到了期限溢价更高、收益率更高的现象。
At at BNP, we're definitely seeing the phenomenon of of higher term premium, higher yields.
全球范围都是这样吗？
Worldwide?
全球范围都是这样。我认为在美国，Gunit Dhingra今年对美国十年期国债收益率的预测非常准确，而且他认为收益率还有可能继续上升。
Worldwide, I think in The US, Gunit Dhingra has has really nailed the call on higher US ten year treasury this year, and he sees even risks that we could go higher.
对于信用市场来说，我觉得最引人注目的是，到目前为止，我们还没有看到利差受到重大影响。
I think what's for credit, what's been really fascinating and is so far, we haven't seen a big impact to spreads.
利差表现得相当稳健。
Spreads have been suggested it really well.
关于你对美联储的报道，这周早些时候我觉得非常有意思。
On your coverage of the Fed, earlier this week, I thought it was fascinating.
你提到了实际收益率的上升。
You're highlighting the real yield rise.
是的。
Yes.
通常，实际收益率的上升确实会开始对信贷产生影响。
Normally, this this rise in real yields really starts to weigh on credit.
到目前为止，我们还没看到这种情况，但我觉得我们正在接近某个水平，
Far, we haven't seen that, but I think we're getting to levels where
再上升25到50个基点可能就会开始对市场造成伤害。
Another 25, 50 basis points could could start to hurt the market.
我得做这个。
I gotta do this.
我不是每期节目都做这个，但每个月得做一次。
So I don't do this every show, but I gotta do it, like, once a month.
我们做这个是因为亚历克西斯带回了希腊甜点。
We're doing this because Alexis is back with Greek desserts.
梅根，各位，这其实很简单。
Meghan, it's real simple, folks.
让我来解释一下。
Let me explain it.
有一种收益率，还有一种是与完全信用基础相比的收益率。
There's a yield, and then there's a yield compared to the full faith in credit foundation.
那叫做利差。
That's called a spread.
说到底，收益率上升，价格就下跌，这是反向关系。
And the bottom line is yields have moved up, prices moved down, the inverse relationship.
但梅根·罗布森的世界和完全信用债务之间的收益率差异其实没有变化。
But the difference in yields between Meghan Robson's world and full faith in credit debt really haven't moved.
这就是我们说的利差没变的意思。
That's what we say when we say spreads haven't moved.
梅根，你们法国巴黎银行改变了看法。
Meghan, you guys have changed your view at BNP Paribas.
你们不再看好信用债了。
You're no longer bullish on credit.
是什么改变了？
What changed?
我们不再看好了。
We're no bullish no longer bullish.
改变的是公司债市场的债券供应量。
What changed is, bond abundance in in corporate bond markets.
所以，你知道，如果看2025年，当时投资者都在抢着买债券。
So, you know, if you look at 2025, we were in this, environment where investors were competing to find bonds that they could buy.
但今年随着AI建设的推进，这种情况真的开始改变了。
That's really started to change this year with the AI build out.
我们看到很多不同的，你知道，超大规模数据中心运营商，还有其他行业，都在借钱来投资资本支出。
We have a number of different, know, the hyperscalers but also other sectors borrowing to fund capital expenditures.
而且我们认为这只是个开始。
And we think this is just the beginning.
所以展望未来，我们认为供应会持续，这会开始抬高利差的底部，并且会成为未来波动的一个来源。
So looking ahead, we think the supply continues and that it starts to raise the floor on spreads and will be a source of volatility looking ahead.
那底层信用质量呢？信用质量还在吗？
So but the underlying credit quality, is credit quality still out there?
你们怎么看这些新发行的信用质量，比如一些看起来评级特别高的东西？
How do you guys think about the credit quality of maybe some of these new issues seem to be, like, super high credit rated things?
是的。
Yes.
所以我觉得，我们观点的转变更多是基于技术性的供应动态。
So I think, our our change in view is based more on the the technical supply dynamic.
如果你看基本面，如你所说，投资级借款人的盈利增长是两位数的。
If you look at fundamentals to your point, earnings growth double digits for investment grade borrowers.
而且尽管你看到他们普遍继续借贷，这个杠杆指标，就是市场关注的发行人相对于盈利的债务水平，实际上因为盈利强劲而下降了。
And even though broadly you've seen them continue to borrow this leverage metric, which the market focuses on how much debt do issuers have compared to their their earnings, has actually moved down because earnings is so strong.
对。
Yep.
关于你提到的那些超大规模企业，其中一些质量更高。
In terms of the hyperscalers that you you mentioned, some of them are higher quality.
我们还有两家大型的，评级是BBB，BBB。
We also have two large ones that are triple b, triple b rated.
所以这意味着它们正好处于投资级和高收益之间的边缘。
So that means they're at just right on the cusp of being between IG and potentially high yield.
所以我认为，从信用角度来看，这两家更值得关注。
So I think those those two are more interesting, to watch in terms of credit perspective.
这周你对美联储有什么看法？
What'd you make from our Federal Reserve this week here?
25个基点的降息，我想市场已经预料到了。
The 25 basis points, I guess, was expected by the marketplace.
有没有什么言论引起了你的注意？
Any rhetoric that kinda got your attention?
我觉得，你知道，当然缺乏指引，但他对通胀的态度依然坚定。
I think it was, you know, like a lack of for for guidance, of course, but he did stay firm on inflation for us.
我们预计还会有两次加息，一次在12月，一次在1月。
We're still expecting two more hikes, one in December and then one in January.
根据我们为信贷做的数据，我们认为需要看到五次加息，信贷才会真正开始承压。
I think for the numbers and and that we've run for credit, we think that you'd need to see five hikes before credit really started to struggle.
所以我们的观点是，我们还没有达到紧缩的程度。
So our our view has been that we're not restrictive yet.
这开始让我们更接近那个水平。
This is starting to get us closer to that level.
但考虑到GDP增长，名义GDP超过6%，我们认为市场还能再吸收几次
But with GDP growth, nominal GDP north of 6%, we think that the market can absorb another few
加息。
rate hikes.
我觉得这就是问题所在。
I got this is the problem.
我们时间不够了。
We don't have enough time.
保罗，你能处理一下这个吗？
Paul, can you fix this?
她什么都交易。
She trades everything.
我们能先把那个移出去吗？
Can we move foo out
然后你和我改到中午十二点？
and you and I go to twelve noon?
可以，就这么办。
We can do that.
我的意思是，各位，关于梅根·罗布森，我有八种方案。
Mean, folks, I got eight ways to go with Meghan Robson.
我打算在这里临时改一下计划。
I'm gonna do an audible here.
我本来想的是别的事，但我得转到名义GDP上。
I had something else in my head, and I gotta go to nominal GDP.
法国巴黎银行的一贯传统就是精准把握更严格的实际GDP，并真正关注名义GDP的走势。
The heritage of BNP Paribas is to absolutely nail a more restrictive real GDP and really focus on what the nominal does.
你是说名义GDP会保持高位，而且美国还会有5%以上的动物精神？
You're saying nominal will stay elevated, and we're still gonna have a 5% plus animal spirit in America?
这是我们目前的预测。
That's our that's our forecast for now.
我觉得我们确实看到了经济中许多韧性的迹象，而且想想看，到目前为止，更高的利率已经产生了什么影响。
I think we we do see a lot of signs of resilience in the economy, and, just think about what higher rates, you know, higher rates has done so far.
当然，它影响了房地产市场，但其他一些行业仍然非常繁荣。
That, of course, it's impacted housing, but there's other sectors that are still really thriving.
所以我认为，随着时间的推移，高利率对整体经济的影响已经减弱了。
So I think just the the the impact of higher rates over time, to to the economy broadly has lessened.
因此，我们认为GDP增长仍然可以继续稳步推进。
And as a result, we think GDP growth can still plug along here.
你在笔记中提到，在杠杆融资中，你更倾向于贷款而不是高收益债券。
You say in your notes, in leveraged finance, you favor loans over high yield.
杠杆贷款和高收益债券有什么区别？
What's the difference between a leveraged loan and a high yield bond?
杠杆——抱歉，
The leverage Excuse
周五和学者们一起。
me, with the academics on Friday.
在杠杆融资市场，我们关注评级较低的发行人，也就是BB级及以下。
In the leverage finance market, we lower rated issuers, so BB and below.
高收益债券是固定利率债券。
High yield is fixed rate bonds.
而杠杆贷款通常是浮动利率，并且往往有担保。
And so, in leveraged loans, floating rate tends to be secured.
所以在当前环境下，如果利率可能进一步上升，持有高收益债券的话，价格就会下跌。
And so in an environment now where you have the risk rates could go even higher, if you own a high yield bonds, your price will go down.
这会侵蚀你的总回报。
It'll eat into your total return.
杠杆贷款是浮动利率的。
Leveraged loans are floating rates.
所以随着美联储加息，你的收益或票息也会跟着增加。
So as the Fed hikes rates, you you'll see your carry or your coupon increase with that.
因此，在利率上升的时期，我们往往会看到资金流入贷款市场。
And so we tend to see inflows into the loan market when in periods when rates are rising.
我们认为现在正是这种情况。
That's we think that's happening right now.
贷款市场也很有意思。
Loans is also very interesting.
它对软件行业的敞口较高，而且它是少数几个仍在消化大量AI颠覆影响的市场的之一。
It has an elevated software exposure, and it's one of the few markets where it's still pricing in a lot of AI disruption.
你从借款人那里看到了这种情况吗？
Are you seeing that from the borrowers in the
我们还没有看到基本面证据表明，软件行业的盈利已经开始因为所有这些新AI而放缓。
We're not fundamental evidence that software earnings have started to be to slow for all of this this new AI.
所以我们认为这是一个缓慢的过程，对吧。
And so we think it's a slow motion Right.
我们认为这是一个缓慢的主题。
We think it's a slow motion theme.
你在布朗大学的时候，有没有机会跟乔迪·戈利学习过？
When you were at Brown, did you have the privilege of studying with Jordi Golly?
没有。
I did not.
好的。
Okay.
他可是个巨人，哦，克莱尔。
He's a giant with oh, Claire.
这是理查德·克莱尔，保罗，关于动态随机一般均衡理论的。
This is Richard Claire, Paul on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory.
而“随机”这个词，朋友们，是布朗大学对“冲击”的时髦说法。
And the word stochastic folks is fancy Brown University talk for shocks.
我们的听众和观众是不是应该过分强调对冲击的研究，还是我们就跟着这个繁荣的经济走？
Should our listeners and viewers be be overemphasizing a study of shocks, or do we just go with this boom economy that we've got?
我认为我们必须关注，必须持续关注利率，持续关注利率市场。
I think that we have to watch, we have to watch the interest rate continue to watch the interest rate market.
虽然今年利率已经大幅上升，但如果我们看到急剧上升，那种带有速度和利率波动的上升，你知道，更像是一种冲击，我认为那可能会引起一些消化不良。
Although rates have risen materially this year, if we were to see a sharp rise, one with velocity and rates volatility, you know, amounting more to a shock, I think that that could cause some indigestion.
但如果我们逐步进行，三次加息之内我们都没问题。
But if we go gradual, we're okay out to three rate hikes.
我认为没错。
I think that's right.
我认为我们可以应对，你知道，如果你看看投资级公司的利息覆盖率，对吧。
I think we we can manage you know, if you look at an interest coverage for investment grade companies Right.
现在是10倍。
It's 10 times right now.
所以你的收益是利息成本的10倍。
So you have 10 times your earnings to your interest cost.
所以三次加息，这些发行人是能够承受的。
So three, you know, three base three rate hikes is is something those issuers will be able to absorb.
您正在收听的是彭博观察播客。
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日午后东部时间早上七点到十点，我们直播。
Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.
可以通过彭博商业应用在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听。
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
或者也可以在YouTube上观看我们的直播。
Or watch us live on YouTube.
这个时机非常好，原因有很多。
This is hugely well timed for all sorts of reasons.
大家都开学了。
Everybody's back to school.
Alexis Crow来自普华永道。
Alexis Crow is with PwC.
抱歉。
I'm sorry.
普华永道。
PricewaterhouseCoopers.
库珀在直播品牌里。
Cooper's in Live Brand.
别在意。
Get over it.
她现在加入我们，是合伙人兼首席经济学家。
And she joins us now partner and chief economist.
但再想想，在麻省理工斯隆商学院拿起粉笔，旁边有位诺贝尔奖得主看着你，那是什么感觉。
But also think of what's it like to pick up a piece of chalk up at Sloan at MIT with a Nobel laureate looking over your shoulder.
有点吓人。
A little intimidating.
教室里没人能比得上西蒙·约翰逊。
There's nobody like Simon Johnson in the classroom.
这一点我可以肯定地告诉你。
I'll tell you that much, really.
我见过不少厉害的人，但没人能比得上他。
And I've seen some greats in my time, and there's nobody like him.
他思路非常清晰。
He has a clarity of thought.
他是怎么把他世界一流的经济学知识，带到你的创业领域来的？
How does he bring his world class economics over to your world of entrepreneurship?
嗯，他让这些知识对学生来说非常容易理解。
Well, he makes it really accessible for the students.
所以，我非常荣幸能够为学生们奠定宏观经济背景，他们中的一些人将在新兴市场以及欧洲进行案例研究。
So was very honored to be able to kind of kick off the macro context in which some of the students will be doing their case studies in emerging markets and also in Europe.
你看，他现在还在用粉笔，这真的很了不起。
As you see, he actually still uses chalk, and that's pretty remarkable.
他要求学生不要用笔记本电脑。
Requesting students not to use their laptops.
所以，你知道，他们真的在学东西。
So it's you know, they're really learning.
他们在学，而且对我来说，
They're learning, and to me,
最根本的一点，你正处在
the fundamental thing, and you're on the cusp
从圣安德鲁斯到伦敦各大学校的这个节点上。
of this from Saint Andrews down to the London schools.
这是新世界与旧世界的交汇。
It's new world, old world.
我们允许创新失败，让市场出清，经典的说法，某种程度上。
We allow innovation to fail and markets to clear classic phrase folks as in a way.
他们不这么做。
They don't do that.
欧洲是怎么做的，保罗，你今天和托尔斯滕·斯洛克提到了这一点。
How does Europe Paul, you mentioned this today with Torsten Slok.
对。
Yep.
欧洲要如何变得更像英美那样，同时又要面对根深蒂固的旧世界文化呢？
How does Europe become more Anglo American against the embedded old world culture?
有意思。
Interesting.
我觉得，这部分跟等级制度有关，对吧，就是从扁平化转向等级化。
I mean, think a part of that is is hierarchical, right, and and moving from horizontal to hierarchical.
一个世界是天主教，等级森严。
One world was Catholic and very hierarchical.
另一个世界是盎格鲁-撒克逊式的。
The other world was Anglo Saxon.
她是怎么做到的。
How she does it.
她真是典型的英国人。
She's so damn British.
她把这事归咎于宗教改革。
She blames it on the reformation.
你看看那个。
Look at that.
继续。
Continue.
说得真像个天主教徒。
Spoken like a true Catholic.
没错。
Exactly.
所以，我们今天早些时候和托尔斯滕·斯洛克聊过。
So, I mean, we were talking to Torsten Slok earlier today.
就像，你提到欧洲市场，它的折价更大，因为它没有科技股的权重。
It's like, you talk about the European market and it trades at a bigger discount because it doesn't have a technology weight.
所以你可以说，天哪，过去三四十年他们错过了科技。
So you could argue, boy, they missed technology over the last thirty, forty years.
现在技术领域发生了革命性变化，就是人工智能。
Now you've got this revolutionary change in technology, AI.
我没看出有什么不同。
I don't see any difference.
我觉得这全都是美国和中国的推动。
I think it's all driven out of The US and China.
欧洲在人工智能方面处于什么位置？
Where's Europe as it relates to AI?
他们是不是只会被动接受人工智能？
Are they just going to be net takers of AI?
如果是这样，他们能接受吗？
And if so, are they okay with that?
等等，先别急。
Well, hang on.
我们来看看股市，因为挺有意思的。
Let's look at the equity markets because it's interesting.
欧洲股市的表现历来集中在金融和医药板块。
Equity market performance in Europe has historically been financials and pharma.
对。
Yep.
说实话，挺单一的。
Pretty pretty one-sided, to be honest.
现在伊朗冲突以来能源板块涨了，工业生产也还在。
Now you've had energy gains since the Iran conflict and still industrial production.
所以贸易顺差很大。
So hefty trade surplus.
嘿。
Hey.
你猜怎么着？
Guess what?
美国可没有这个，尽管费了那么多劲。
We don't have that in The US despite all the efforts to the contrary.
所以我想说，在欧洲，与国防和航空航天工业综合体相关的基础设施支出将会非常值得关注。
So I would say that some of the infrastructure spend related to the defense and aerospace industrial complex will be quite interesting to witness in Europe.
另外，顺便说一句，我觉得这里存在一种矛盾心理。
I also, by the way, think that there's an ambivalence.
在欧洲，对于这些通用技术，以及这些技术是否最终能让公民受益，存在一种文化上的矛盾心理。
There's a cultural ambivalence toward some of these general purpose technologies in Europe and whether or not these are gonna benefit citizens overall.
就在过去几周，业内有很多人也在质疑这些事情。
And there's a lot of people just in the past couple of weeks within the industry itself questioning those things.
退一步看。
Step back here.
我们目前的情况是，从彭博终端来看，全球利率上升，全球能源成本上升，但经济增长依然强劲。
What we have is, just looking at the Bloomberg terminal, higher rates globally, higher energy costs globally, still strong economic growth.
把这些因素综合起来，你对未来六到十二个月的经济形势有什么判断？
When you put those all together, what's your call for the next six, twelve months here economic wise?
在美国这里，是的，我们确实看到了这种有趣的局面：创纪录的债务发行量、债券市场所有权结构的重大变化以及其中的转变、传统银行业的放松管制、传统银行与对冲基金之间关系的加深。
So here in The US, yep, we definitely have this interesting conflagration of record high levels of debt issuance, major changes in the composition of ownership in the bond market and and shifts there, deregulation in the traditional banking sector, deepening relationship between the traditional banks and hedge funds.
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所以在美国，这里头有很多因素混在一起。
So there's a lot in the cocktail mix here in The US.
当然，我们还有那个头号增长引擎，就是由人工智能和相关的资本支出推动的。
Of course, we still have that number one engine of growth being driven by AI and the CapEx related to that.
现在我们处于一个不同的利率环境中，当然，这会给一些企业借款人带来压力。
Now here we are in a different interest rate environment where, of course, that will put pressure on some corporate borrowers.
你看看用于资助这些超大规模企业和数据中心项目的债务比例，过去一年里这个比例大幅上升了。
And you look at the share of debt that's being used to fund some of these hyperscaler plays and some of the data center plays, and that's dramatically increased in the last year
同样地。
as well.
我的意思是，这里头有八种可能的情况。
I mean, eight ways to go here.
让我继续围绕名义GDP强劲增长这个主题来说。
Let me stay in my theme of a buoyant nominal GDP.
再次提到，我提到了FHN的克里斯托弗·洛，他说经济一片火热。
Again, I mentioned Christopher Lowe, FHN, talking about a roaring economy.
亚历克西斯·克劳，你在普华永道有那么多的消息来源，你真是紧跟时代潮流。
Alexis Crow, with all of your sources at PwC, I mean, you're hugely wired in to the zeitgeist.
人们是带着执行信心进入这种持续的名义GDP增长，还是担心你刚才说的那一大堆事情？
Are people slipping into this sustained nominal GDP with execution confidence, or are they worried about the litany of things you just said?
他们担心的是AI交易的瓦解。
They're worried about an unwinding of the AI trade.
这绝对是有可能的。
That's definitely on the table.
特别是，如果你看看支出占GDP的比例，与之前的互联网泡沫相比，美联储的数据显示，软件和硬件支出与过去繁荣时期的情况一致，但数据中心支出却不同。
And particularly, if you look at spending as a percentage of GDP in contrast with previous .com bubbles, Fed data show that spending on software, spending on hardware is consistent with where we were with past boond, but that spending on data centers
你在美联储会议和那些高深的博士经济学里听到这个了吗？
Did you hear that in the Fed meeting and all the fancy PhD economics?
我没听到。
I didn't hear it.
在六月的会议纪要中，也就是七月份发布的六月会议纪要，你确实看到一些委员会成员担心AI支出正在推动美国非常强劲的需求和通胀，并且从AI行业溢出到其他相关行业。
In the June minutes so June meeting minutes that were released in July, you did see some of the committee members concerned that spending on AI was contributing to very strong demand and inflation here in The US and and spilling over from the AI sector into other related sectors as well.
天哪，我今天就听到你、托尔斯滕·斯洛克，还有另外几个人都提到过这个。
Boy, I you just today, you, Torsten Slok, a couple other folks have kinda called this out.
我开始有点担心了，担心AI对经济、企业盈利，以及由此对股市估值的影响。
I'm starting to get a little nervous here about the AI impact on the economy, on corporate earnings, on therefore the stock market valuation?
消费。
Consumption.
消费。
Consumption.
谢谢。
Thank you.
你觉得这怎么会以糟糕的方式结束呢？
This how could this end badly, do you think?
这存在实质性的风险吗？
Is there is that a material risk out there?
我想说，部分原因还是，我又要回到数据中心那块了。
I would say part of it again, I'm gonna come back to the data center pieces.
我们开发的东西，将来能派上用场、能适应未来吗？
Are we developing things that will be kit for the future and equipped for the future?
考虑到摩尔定律，我不太确定。
I I'm not entirely sure given Moore's Law.
所以我觉得这肯定是一个方面。
So I think that's certainly one piece.
你也看到了，这方面的政治风险，以及可能出现的反弹。
You've obviously also seen the political risk against this and potential for for for a snapback there as well.
我之前提到过这一点。
I I mentioned this earlier.
我觉得史蒂夫·艾斯曼，当然，我们都认识他，也都喜欢他。
I thought Steve Iceman, of course, we all know him and love him.
他最近身体不太好，但昨天能跟卡尔·基恩在“死星”见到他，真是太好了。
He's been ill recently, but it's wonderful to see him yesterday with Carl Keene over at the Death Star.
卡尔问了他一些很好的问题，就是关于缺乏护城河的问题。
Carl asked him some great questions just simply about the lack of moats.
这就像西蒙·约翰逊的演讲一样。
This is like Simon Johnson talk.
你知道吗？
You know?
你讲护城河，保罗，是的。
This you talk moats, Paul Yep.
当你去麻省理工学院的时候。
When you go up to MIT.
你有没有察觉到所有这些新的人工智能东西周围有护城河？
Do you detect a moat around all this new AI stuff?
我没看到。
I don't see it.
我没看到。
I don't see it.
我没看到。
I don't see it.
那怎么出清呢？
How does that clear?
我的意思是，到某个时候，我们得，你知道，按照哈耶克的理论，弗里德里希·哈耶克，我们得让那个市场出清。
I mean, at some point, we have to you know, on a Hayekian basis, Friedrich Hayek, we have to clear that market.
会有输家。
There will be losers.
你觉得这会怎么发展？
How do you see that playing out?
嗯，这挺有意思的。
Well, it's interesting.
我们以前聊过这个，但英格兰银行的行长贝利说过，他设想了一种情况，就是泡沫可能会破裂，但公司会继续使用AI，继续投资AI。
We've chatted about this in the past, but governor Bailey at the Bank of England has said he sees a scenario where you could have a bubble bursting, but companies continuing to use AI and to invest in AI.
而且我觉得这能提高生产率。
And I think to to enhance productivity, increases.
所以我觉得这两件事可能会同时发生，一起出现。
And so I think you could see those two actually unfolding and and coming out together.
亚历克西斯，非常感谢你。
Alexis, thank you so much.
真的，真的很感谢。
Really, really appreciate it.
这来得太及时了。
Just hugely timely here.
亚历克西斯·克劳，来自普华永道，还有西蒙·约翰逊，来自麻省理工学院。
Alexis Crow working with PwC and also with Simon Johnson, the Massachusetts Institute.
请继续收听。
Stay with us.
稍后，彭博观察节目还有更多内容。
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
彭博本周末播客，新闻、政治，还有彭博轻松的一面。
The Bloomberg this weekend podcast, news, politics, and the lighter side of Bloomberg.
人类皮肤是K-beauty中最奇怪的新成分，不。
Human skin is the weirdest new ingredient in the k beauty No.
哇哦。
Boom.
哦，是的。
Oh, yes.
确实如此。
It is.
所以这是一种从捐赠的人体组织中提取的皮肤增强治疗。明白。
So it's a skin booster treatment derived from donated human tissue Okay.
在首尔的美容诊所很受欢迎。
Popular in Seoul's beauty clinics.
一位医生说它是由死人制成的。
One doctor says it's made from dead people.
如果是活人的话
It would be weirder if it were
那才更奇怪。
from live people.
就是想暂停一下。
Just wanna pause it.
这里是彭博周末播客。
The Bloomberg This Weekend podcast.
今天就在苹果播客、声破天或任何你听播客的地方订阅吧。
Subscribe today on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen.
你正在收听的是彭博市场观察播客。
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日东部时间早上七点到十点，我们直播，欢迎收听。
Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.
可以通过彭博商业应用在苹果车载和安卓汽车上收听，或者上油管看我们的直播。
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
好。
Okay.
所以，纽约这边有这事，那边也有那事。
So there's this going on in New York, that going on in New York.
保罗，我们得走工业风。
Paul, we need to be industrial.
好。
Okay.
我们得去布鲁克林，找个砖楼。
We need to go to Brooklyn in a brick building.
每个人都很认真。
Everybody's earnest.
他们穿的是日本牛仔裤，一条大概要四百美元。
They wear Japanese blue jeans that cost, like, $400 apiece.
没错。
Exactly.
达娜·特尔西加入我们，聊聊今年纽约最离奇的故事。
Dana Telsey joins us on the oddest story in New York this year.
爱马仕正大笔投资工业风，哦，超酷的精酿金汤力鸡尾酒。
Hermes is like putting big money into industrial, oh, so cool craft gin and tonic cocktails.
布鲁克林？
Brooklyn?
真的吗？
Really?
威廉斯堡，他们的店要在那里开张。
Williamsburg, their store's opening there.
非常受欢迎。
Very popular.
非常受欢迎。
Very popular.
你看到证据了，古拉女士，我的意思是，就一个例子。
You see proof of evidence that missus Gura I mean, just as one.
对。
Yep.
好。
K.
斯泰西·瓦尼克就要来了。
Stacy Vanick's coming up in
又一个而已。
Just another one.
对。
Yep.
你知道，马克斯。
You know, Max.
而且，我是说，这种人会走进爱马仕？
And, I mean, these kind of people are walking into Hermes?
是的。
Yes.
他们确实会。
They are.
你看看他们去的那些社区。
You look at the neighborhoods where they're going.
他们去的是顾客知道他们品牌的地方，而且在那里买东西。
They're going where the customer's aware of their brand name, and they're buying there.
你有证据表明这会成功。
You see evidence that this will be a success.
他们搞了个快闪店，对吧。
They did a pop up thing Right.
用来测试的。
To test it.
他们搞快闪店就是为了测试。
They did the pop up to test it.
但如果你测试了，效果不错。
But if you tested it, it did well.
这就是为什么你要开实体店。
That's why you're opening a permanent store.
快闪店是实体店的入口，前提是收入达到预期。
Pop ups are the entryway to a permanent store if you get the revenues you thought you got.
为什么现在奢侈品行业这么不景气？
Why is luxury flat on its back right now?
现在它们全都在走下坡路。
They're all cratering right now.
为什么？
Why?
特别是法国的奢侈品行业。
Particularly, French crate luxury.
有几个原因。
Couple things.
第一，最近欧洲的消费者日子很不好过。
Number one, Europe consumer is very challenged lately.
没有游客来，所以也看不到中国游客来消费。
You're not getting tourists, so you're not getting the Chinese traveling.
越来越多的中国人开始花钱在本土品牌上了。
More Chinese are spending on some of their own local brands.
而目前最强的地区是北美。
And the region that's the strongest is North America.
随着这些公司公布销售数据，下一批销售数据将在十月份发布，重点都在北美，那里是增长最强的地区。
As these companies report sales and the next grouping of sales will come out in October, it's all about North America where the strength is.
而且是在他们自己的门店里。
And it's in their own stores.
因为你想，一些新开的门店，比如过去一年开业的迪奥旗舰店，还有新开的Mez门店。
Because you think some of these new stores that have opened, you've had the Dior flagships that have opened in the past year, the newer Mez store that's opened.
未来还会有更多。
There's more to come.
汤姆，我们团队有人告诉我，达娜今天早上坐红眼航班来参加我们的节目。
Tom, I've been told by her one of our team that Dana got off a red eye this morning to come to our show.
她太棒了。
She's rocking.
达娜参加了一场高尔夫比赛，
Dana Meets a golf stream,
但对你这种人来说，你不再坐红眼航班了。
but it's too somebody of your you don't take red eyes anymore.
我当然坐。
Of course, I do.
所以我想说，我要给你老板打电话让他纠正你，但你就是老板。
So I'm I I was gonna say, I'm gonna call your boss and straighten them out, but you're the boss.
没错。
Exactly.
我坐红眼航班怎么了？
I take going on?
基本上，我觉得坐红眼航班是有效率的，因为这样你就能……
Basically, I look at it as there's productivity in being able to take a red eye because then you're
你会在这里疯掉的。
gonna go nuts here.
好的。
Okay.
我能快速插一句吗？
Can I editorialize here quickly?
我刚把美联航的Rockstar服务给取消了。
I just took out Rockstar Service United.
斯科特·柯比，非常感谢。
Scott Kirby, thanks so much.
这全是新设计业务的事。
All new design business this.
我坐不下那个座位。
I didn't fit the chair.
戴娜才四英尺十一英寸。
Dana's four feet eleven.
她可以坐红眼航班，一路睡到底。
She could take the red eye and sleep every minute of the way.
我在1990年的合同里写明了。
I put in my 1990 contract.
不再有红眼航班了。
No more red eyes.
达娜，最近你和你的客户在零售领域最关注的主题是什么？
Dana, what's the number one theme for you and your clients these days in the world of retail?
现在利率更高了。
We've got higher interest rates.
但股市也更高了。
But we've also got a higher stock market.
有那种财富效应。
There's that wealth effect.
你之前提到的主题是什么？
What's the theme that you were talking about your
有几件事。
Couple things.
第一，我认为是传统业务的现代化。
Number one, I think legacy modernizing.
那些曾经显得疲惫和陈旧的品牌现在正在重新塑造自己。
Brand names that have been tired and old are reinventing themselves.
看看Gap，过去两个季度同店销售额增长了10%。
You look at a gap which did 10% comps for the past two quarters.
再看看Ross Stores，他们的同店销售额一直保持两位数增长。
You look at Ross Stores, which has been double digit comping.
再看看维多利亚的秘密。
You take a look at Victoria's Secret.
第二点，过去两周财报发布后，我们与许多CEO和CFO进行了交流。
Second thing, many of the CEOs and CFOs we've spoken with over the past two weeks after earnings.
他们中有很多人在会议上发言。
A lot of them spoke at conferences.
当你仔细听他们谈论的内容时，会发现一个词频繁出现，那就是“加速”。
As you go through what they're talking about, what is a word that's coming in with many of them, the word acceleration.
而“加速”这个词之所以出现，是因为一些公司的销售趋势，比如维多利亚的秘密，甚至雅诗兰黛。
And acceleration is coming in because of some with sales trends, like a Victoria's Secret and even an Estee Lauder.
有些是客流增长，比如Figs或者Kroger。
Some with traffic gains, whether it's a figs or whether it's a Kroger.
有些是客户增长，比如Ulta，它有4700万忠诚会员。
Some with customer gains, you look at Ulta which has 47,000,000 loyalty members.
有些是新店开张速度加快，比如Reformation，还有一些是转型加速。
Some with an acceleration in the rate of new store openings, like with reformation, and some with transformation acceleration.
看看Macy's，走到街对面的Bloomingdale's，看看他们引进的所有新品牌，还有一些公司比如G3，刚刚从LVMH手里买下了Marc Jacobs。
Look at Macy's, walk across the street to Bloomingdale's and see all the new brands they have, and some with companies like g three, which just bought Marc Jacobs from LVMH.
你那边总是有很多事情在发生。
Lot going always a lot going on in your world.
K型经济的底部，这对你的研究覆盖范围有什么影响？你怎么看？
The bottom of the k shaped economy, how does that impact your research coverage and and how do you look at that?
有几件事。
Couple things.
说实话，我觉得看看几周前Jamie Dimon说的，他说不存在K型经济。
I think frankly, look what Jamie Dimon said a couple weeks ago, where there isn't a k shaped economy.
即使是低端市场，他们也绝对更挑剔，因为不管是油价高还是食品价格高，每个人都在寻找新的或有点不同的东西。
Even the lower end, they they are definitely more discerning because whether it's higher gas prices, food prices, but everyone is looking for something new or a little bit different.
所以你可以看看，比如美妆产品，它们已经被放到了折扣店。
So you'll take a look, for example, at beauty, which has been being put in the off prices.
他们正在购买这些产品。
They're buying it.
看看Five Below。
Look at Five Below.
你听说过那些软软的饺子吗？
Have you heard of these squishy dumplings?
没有。
No.
什么是软软的饺子？
What's a squishy dumpling?
软软的饺子是现在最火的玩具。
Squishy dumplings is the hottest toy out there.
大家都在网上排队等着买呢。
People are waiting online for it.
到时候肯定会有很多人到处找这种软软的小团子。
There's gonna be some treasure hunts for squishy dumplings.
我这就去搜一下软软的小团子是什么。
Googling squishy dumplings.
对。
Yes.
好。
Okay.
汤姆，你听说过这个吗？
Tom, have you heard of it?
乔，没有。
Joe no.
我没听说过。
I haven't.
乔·费尔德曼，别这样。
Joe Feldman come on.
乔·费尔德曼发来邮件说，给我点时间。
Joe Feldman emails in and says, give me some time.
家得宝。
Home Depot.
对。
Yep.
自疫情以来，回报率只有个位数。
Single digit return since COVID.
这些标志性的大卖场，乔·费尔德曼提到的，有没有什么战略模式能让它们动起来，还是说它们就认命于个位数的表现了？
Is there, like, a strategic model at these iconic big box Joe Feldman names to get it going, or they just resigned to single digit performance?
什么能让它们动起来，然后什么能让水龙头打开？
What's gonna get them going and then what's gonna turn the spigot?
基本上，就是房地产市场的回归。
Basically, a return of housing.
只要看到房市回暖，家得宝的增速就会跟着上来。
Anything where you see a housing pickup, the acceleration of Home Depot will be there.
就像劳氏一样，增速也会加快。
Just like the acceleration of Lowe's.
说实话，你看看威廉姆斯-索诺玛。
And frankly, you look at a Williams Sonoma.
你会在那里看到这种趋势。
That's where you're gonna see it.
不过，你想想家居用品，比如像Home Goods这样的公司，它们价格确实更低。
What you are seeing though is when you think about home, look at companies like Home Goods, which frankly have lower prices.
更多是软家居，比如枕头、毛巾这些，但它们的同店销售增长一直很不错。
It's more soft home with whether it's pillows and towels, but they've been comping very nicely.
因为就像人们更新衣橱和衣服一样，他们也在更新家里的东西。
Because just like people refreshing their wardrobes and clothing, they're refreshing their wardrobes and home.
现在距离疫情已经过去六年了。
It's been six years now since COVID.
达娜·特尔西和我们在一起。
Dana Telsey with us.
特尔西咨询集团对她的工作赞不绝口。
Telsey Advisory Group can't say enough about her worker.
从奢侈品世界一直到特尔西咨询集团的大型零售业务，她对零售有着深刻的直觉。
Visceral feel for retail from the world of luxury right on down to Telsey Advisory Group's great big box at work as well.
保罗·斯威尼在美国各地与达娜·特尔西连线。
Paul Sweeney across America with Dana Telsey.
我现在正忙着研究软饺子这个话题呢。
I'm going I'm going down the squishy dumpling rabbit hole as we speak here.
达娜，多年来，可能超过十年了，我们一直在和你以及零售界的其他人讨论如何调整这个国家的百货商店规模，那意味着关店。
Dana, for years, maybe more than a decade, we've been talking to people like you and other folks in the retail space about kind of rightsizing the department store footprint in this country, and that meant shutting stores.
我们现在进行到哪一步了？
Where are we in that process now?
关店这件事，基本上已经完成了。
Shutting stores for the most part, you're pretty much done on shutting stores.
看看商业地产，最近回报最高的就是购物中心。
When you look at commercial real estate, you're seeing some of the biggest returns lately on malls.
你会发现，像梅西百货那样，很多公司已经调整了门店数量。
What you're seeing is that companies have reset their number of boxes like Macy's did.
现在他们有了重新设计的门店。
Now they have these reimagined stores.
而且你会看到Z世代的青少年喜欢去实体店。
And you're seeing Gen z teenagers like going to stores.
他们喜欢和朋友一起去。
They like going with their friends.
他们喜欢试穿，
They like trying on to
为了追求个性。
get original.
那里是个好去处，而且客流量很大。
It's a destination, and there's traffic.
好的。
Okay.
得把稿子扔了。
Gotta just rip up the script.
我都不知道你跟没跟上这个故事。
I don't even know if you're up to speed on the story.
费德勒的公司，叫什么来着？
Federer's company, what's it called?
On？
On?
On 鞋。
On shoes.
对。
Yep.
他们请了法国巨星姆巴佩和亨利来做足球鞋。
They're getting French superstar Mamba PwC and Terry Henry on to do football, to do soccer shoes.
耐克其实也在降价。
Nike actually trades down as well.
跟我们说说现在的球鞋大战吧。
Tell us about the shoe wars right now.
我想到了菲律宾人亚历克斯·阿亚拉。
I think of Alex Ayala, the Filipino.
她好像跟耐克有合作，但他们基本上就是在到处撒钱。
I think she's got a deal with Nike, but they're just basically throwing money around.
嗯，你看到的一个现象是，每个人都想模仿那些大明星。
Well, one one of the things you see is everyone wants to emulate who these big stars are.
所以你会看到越来越多的合作和联名。
So you are getting more, oh, yes, more partnerships and collaborations.
我们的分析师克里斯汀，她下周会去拜访他们。
Christine, our analyst on on, she's going to visit them next week.
他们正在举办一个大型投资者日。
They're doing a big investor day.
我听到了。
I heard that.
阿迪达斯也是。
And Adidas is also.
然后下个月，不。
And then next month in no.
两个月后。
Two months.
十一月，耐克也会有一个大型投资者日。
In November, Nike is doing a big investor day too.
所以所有公司都会重新调整他们的算法，并讨论未来的增长会是什么样子。
So all the companies are gonna reset their algorithms and talk about what does the future growth look like.
我的意思是，我从Air Jordan和那部很棒的电影来看这个问题。
I I mean, I look at this from Air Jordan and, you know, that great movie.
是的。
Yep.
我是说，杰伦·布伦森的球鞋合同值多少钱？天哪。
I mean, what's Jalen Brunson's Oh, man.
球鞋合同值多少钱？
Shoe deal worth?
没错。
Exactly.
而且我觉得，球鞋生意，竞争太激烈了。对。
And it's I think the sneaker business, I mean, it is so competitive Mhmm.
现在。
Today.
我在看耐克。
I'm looking at Nike.
今年股价跌了40%。
The stock's down 40% this year.
我是说，你在干什么呢？
I mean, what are you doing?
他们哪里做错了？
What are they getting wrong?
嗯，基本上，他们现在在做的一件事就是重新调整，所以他们有像Dick's Sporting Goods这样的批发合作伙伴。
Well, basically, one of the things they're doing now is it is resetting, so they have wholesale partnerships like with Dick's Sporting Goods.
他们推出的新产品，不只是像过去那样同样的功能。
It's new product that they're introducing, not just the same functionalities like they had in the past.
而且我觉得他们在做更多、更新、更不一样的广告。
And I think they're doing more and new and different advertising.
我觉得我们会在投资者日听到更多关于这个的消息。
I think we're gonna hear more about that at the Investor Day.
但你听说了昨天耐克发生的另一件事吗？
But did you hear the other thing that happened yesterday with Nike?
那是一个转变，把奢侈品和耐克融合在一起。
This was a pivot, blending luxury and Nike.
好的。
Okay.
这是
This is
亚历山大·阿尔诺加入了耐克董事会。
Alexander Arnaud went on the board of Nike.
真的吗？
Really?
好的。
Okay.
这正是你怎么知道我想去哪里的？
This is exactly how'd you know where I wanna go?
她说，我们心有灵犀。
She's like, we're wired in together.
所以我在这里做人工智能，它是个我买不起的玩意儿，而他穿着白鞋。
So I'm doing AI here, and it's a stud and a a suit I can't afford, and he's wearing white shoes.
现在他们可能是梅菲斯特。
Now they may be Mephisto.
可能是耐克，管他呢。
They may be Nike, whatever.
达娜·特尔西谈成年男人穿西装搭配白球鞋。
Dana Telsey on grown men in fancy dark suits wearing white sneakers.
说说看。
Discuss.
这是个趋势。
It's a trend.
确实是个趋势。
It is a trend.
穿着舒服嘛。
It's it's comfortable.
为什么这么流行？
Why is on so popular?
因为可以配西装穿。
Because you can wear them with suits.
那我穿双白色的费德勒同款鞋，也能这么穿吗？
So I can wear a pair of white Federer ons and get away with it?
可以。
Yes.
大卫·韦斯顿，我见过他偶尔这么穿。
David Weston, I've seen do that occasionally.
对，是的。
If Yeah.
这看起来不错。
It's a nice look.
这，嗯，大卫
It's a well, David
韦斯顿，他穿的和詹姆斯·邦德那种一样的西装。
Weston He wears the same suits they wear like in James Bond.
我知道。
I know.
我知道。
I know.
我知道。
I know.
我的意思是，我没见过汤姆·基恩穿运动鞋。
I mean I don't see Tom Keene with the sneakers.
我不知道，就是那种配领结的。
I don't you know With the bow tie,
可能会
it might
有点难搞。
get tough.
如果他觉得舒服的话。
If he's comfortable.
也许我们想
Maybe we wanna
我得，我得，我最后得更新一下达娜·特尔西在这里拥有的，就是57街和第五大道的那个角落。
keep I I I gotta I gotta finally do an update on what Dana Telsey here is owns, which is the corner of 57th Street and 5th Avenue.
四个角落，蒂芙尼，路易威登的行李箱店，梵克雅宝在另一个角落，我觉得是宝格丽。
The four corners, Tiffany, the Louis Vuitton luggage thing, Van Cleef is over on the other corner, and I think it's Bulgari.
是宝格丽。
It's Bulgari.
对你来说，哪个是最有趣的故事？
Which is the most interesting story for you forward?
天哪。
Oh my god.
嗯，我觉得是那两个。
Well, I think cup two two of them.
我觉得是路易威登和蒂芙尼。
I think the LV and the Tiffany.
我的意思是，看看蒂芙尼在餐饮方面做了什么。
I mean, look what Tiffany is doing with restaurants.
他们有蓝盒子咖啡馆。
They have the Blue Box Cafe.
LV，那会是什么样子？
LV, what that's gonna look like?
太棒了。
Amazing.
而且说实话，你看那些LV行李箱的照片被拍得那么多。
And frankly, though, you look at all the pictures that are being taken of those trunks of LV.
曼哈顿最适合拍照打卡的地方之一。
Some of the most Instagrammable place in Manhattan.
好的。
Okay.
最酷的事情。
The most coolest thing.
我的意思是，我甚至不知道他们怎么打网球之类的。
I mean, I don't even know how they play tennis and this stuff.
这个蒂芙尼的链式项链，大家都信我，真的。
This linkage Tiffany necklace that everyone trust me.
维特·比尔也想要一个。
Vet Bill wants one.
我确定。
I'm sure.
他想要那个带尖刺的。
He wants the the the the the one with the spikes.
就是那个蒂芙尼链式款。
The linkage Tiffany thing.
他们靠这个赚翻了。
They mint money on there.
确实。
They do.
他们赚翻了，而且都卖断货了。
They mint, and they're out of stock.
这还有另一件事。
That's the other thing also.
缺货了，汤姆。
Back order, Tom.
您正在收听的是彭博观察播客。
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日东部时间早上七点到十点，欢迎收听我们的直播。
Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.
可以通过彭博商业应用在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听，或者在YouTube上观看我们的直播。
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App, or watch us live on YouTube.
现在有请布鲁斯·沃尔夫加入我们。
Bruce Wolfe joins us now.
他是Alight公司的高级副总裁，一直和我们在一起。
Senior vice president, Alight, been joining us.
股票代码是A L I T。
The symbol, a l I t.
这个我还真不知道。
I did not know that.
是的。
Yep.
Alight是做什么的？
Who is Alight?
帮我介绍一下Alight吧。
Help me here with who Alight is.
好的。
Sure.
他们是一家大型福利管理公司，主要服务那些超大型企业。
So they are a large benefits administrator, so they provide to really mega companies, in fact.
我打电话进去骂的就是他们吧。
They're who I yell at when I call in.
没错，你骂的还真是他们，因为在医疗和健康方面，我觉得他们就是给彭博提供福利服务的。
In fact, literally are the ones that you yell at because on the medical side and health side, they, I think, provide benefits to you at Bloomberg.
我最近加入了他们，主要是负责401k业务。挺好的。
I recently joined them to basically run the four zero one k business Great.
因为他们也提供财富管理服务。
Because they also provide wealth services.
你有一份很棒的笔记，里面都是你几十年的经验。
You have a brilliant note with all of your decades of experience.
以前啊，老一辈拿的是固定福利养老金，后来我们搞了401k这种固定缴费计划。
In the old days folks, grandpa got the defined benefit check, and then we did this four zero one k defined contribution.
你笔记里提到，我们现在好像又想回到固定福利那种模式了。
You have a note whispering that we're trying to be more defined benefitly now.
我们是不是要放弃401k的自由了？
Are we walking away from the freedom of a four zero one k?
不是。
No.
我觉得不会。
I don't think so.
我觉得我们现在的做法，是慢慢把两边的优点都结合起来。
I think what we're doing is we're trying to take over time probably the best of both worlds.
也就是说，在定额供款计划里，大家有自主权，可以按照自己的喜好去投资。
So the idea of a defined contribution plan, people have the autonomy and the ability to invest as they like.
但我们也意识到，随着人们步入退休阶段，如何管理退休后的资金其实相当复杂。
But we're also recognizing that as individuals are moving into retirement, the idea of being able to manage your money in retirement is quite complicated.
事实上，我认为诺贝尔奖得主比尔·夏普说过，对个人来说，最难搞的财务问题就是如何在退休后提取资金。
In fact, I think it was Bill Sharp, a Nobel laureate who said that the hardest nastiest financial problem to solve is the one for individuals trying to draw down money in retirement.
所以我觉得行业里大家也意识到了，我们可能得试着把固定收益计划里的一些特点借鉴过来，跟固定缴款计划在一定程度上结合起来。
So I think there's an acknowledgement in the industry that we need to probably try to do a little bit better at trying to take maybe some of the aspects from defined benefit and meld those to some degree with defined contribution.
我们现在已经开始看到这种趋势了。
That's what we're starting to see.
比如说，在固定缴款项目里，现在能看到有人把保险或者年金产品附加到目标日期基金上，而目标日期基金是目前个人投资者最主流的投资策略。这么做的主要目的，就是希望他们在退休后能获得一份终身的收入保障。
For example, within defined contribution programs, we now are seeing that insurance or annuities are being attached to a target date fund which is the most popular type of investment strategy that individuals have And the idea is that that would provide them with some lifetime income once they enter retirement.
这就是其中一种思路。
So that's one approach.
另外，固定收益计划这边也开始慢慢重新回到大家的视野里，不过不一定是你父母那一代的那种固定收益计划，而是经过了一些改良的版本。
You could also there's the defined benefit side themselves are slowly starting to get back in the mix a little bit, not necessarily with the defined benefit plan that your mother or father had, but some modification.
几年前IBM就是这么做的。
We saw this with IBM a couple years ago.
他们开始重新推出固定收益计划，基本上是把原本打算用于匹配缴费的那部分资产拿过来用。
They started to bring back their defined benefit plan and basically were using the assets that they were going to use to contribute from a matching perspective.
他们不再直接匹配个人，而是把这笔钱放进个人的固定收益账户里，慢慢积累。
Instead of matching the individual, they're taking that and they're putting into a defined benefit account for an individual that over time.
真有意思。
Fascinating.
你说什么？
Pardon?
真有意思。
Fascinating.
所以，虽然这还处于非常早期的阶段，但更重要的趋势是，我们看到这两种模式正在逐渐融合。
So I mean, that's very early days, but the broader point here is that we're seeing a confluence of activity between the two types of areas.
随着美国人口老龄化，越来越多的人进入退休状态，他们的工作日子已经结束或者基本结束了。
As The US population ages, more and more people are going into retirement scenario where their their days are contributing or or essentially over.
现在的问题是怎么取钱。
Now it's how to take it out.
你最基本的建议是什么？
What are the most basic recommendations do you have?
是先做预算，然后根据预算来调整账户吗？
Is it get a budget and then we'll align your account with that budget?
你怎么看？
How do you?
当然，当然。
Sure, sure.
那么，我们先从一个基本点开始，那就是当人们从积累资产转向提取资产时，他们面临的问题是不同的。
So, let's start with a kind of a fundamental point, which is you're solving a different problem when people move into withdrawing their assets versus accumulating their assets.
所以，比如使用基于概率的方法、蒙特卡洛假设、资本市场假设，我们的观点是，我们应该更多地从结果的角度来看待这个问题。
And so the idea of using, for example, a probability based approach, Monte Carlo assumptions, capital market assumptions, our view is that we should be looking at it more from an outcome perspective.
进入退休后，你更多考虑的不是我能不能在标普500上获得某个回报率，而是我每个月需要6000美元来花，对吧。
When you enter retirement, you're less thinking about am I gonna get a, you know, x y z return on the S and P 500 versus I want $6,000 a month, right, spent.
嗯
Well
所以，我们的想法是，如何制定投资策略，同时在一定程度上利用保险，来实现这些目标。
So the idea is how do we create investment strategies as well as using insurance to some degree to deliver those types of outcomes.
普通人，就是那种典型的刻板印象。
Standard folks, just cliche stereotype.
男，45岁。
Man, 45.
女，42岁。
Woman, 42.
一对夫妻。
A couple.
联合预期寿命，其中一人活到85岁。
Joint life expectancy, one will live to 85.
百分之七十五。
Seventy five percent.
有一个会活到90岁。
One will live to 90
百分之四十七。
Forty seven percent.
有一个会活到95岁，百分之二十。
One will live to 95, 20%.
对我来说，你的数学里没有其他问题。
To me, there's no other issue in your mathematics.
这恰恰是退休时最独特也最重要的风险，那就是长寿风险。
And and that gets to by far the most unique and important risk when people enter retirement, which is longevity risk.
说实话，如今解决这个问题的主要方式就是年金。
And quite frankly, today, the primary way to solve that is through an annuity.
而获得这种保障最有效的方式，就是所谓的递延收入年金，它基本上就是专门针对长寿风险提供保障的。
And the way, the most efficient way to get that protection is through something called a deferred income annuity, which basically just protects against the longevity longevity element.
比如说，一个人可以在65岁时买，但到85岁时才开始生效。
So for example, when an individual they could buy it when they're 65, but when they're 85, it kicks in.
然后从85岁开始，它会一直提供收入，直到他们……
And then it would provide them income from 85 until when they
如果他们在65岁买，85岁开始领，收益率是多少？
What's the yield on that if they buy it at 65, 85?
大概就行。
Just roughly.
嗯，这取决于市场情况。
Well, it's gonna depend right on on what the market's are.
那按现在的情况，他们每年能拿到6%？
So where we are now, they're gonna make 6% per year?
大概在6%左右，可能因为费用等原因稍微低一点，但大致在这个范围。
Probably somewhere around six, maybe a little bit less because of expenses and so forth, but somewhere in that range.
布鲁斯·沃尔夫，还差一点就讲完了。
Bruce Wolfe, till short of visit.
我们得再来一次。
We gotta do it again.
这里是彭博观察播客，可在Apple、Spotify以及任何您获取播客的平台上收听。
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
每个工作日东部时间早上7点到10点，在bloomberg.com、iHeartRadio应用、TuneIn和彭博商业应用上直播。
Listen live each weekday, seven to 10AM eastern on bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app.
您还可以在每个工作日通过YouTube观看我们的直播，并且随时可以在彭博终端上观看。
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
现在，bloomberg.com的订阅用户可以参与塑造彭博广播的对话。
Now bloomberg.com subscribers can shape the conversation on Bloomberg Radio.
我们有一周的聪明问题。
We got a week of smart questions.
您可以成为对话的一部分。
Can be part of the conversation.
为您在广播中听到的专家和嘉宾提交问题。
Submit questions for experts and guests you hear on air.
访问bloomberg.com/askradio，向我们的主持人提问。
Visit bloomberg.com/askradio to send questions to our hosts.
我们可能就会在节目中听到这些问题被提出。
We may just hear them asked on the air.
仅限bloomberg.com订阅用户。
Exclusively for bloomberg.com subscribers.
获取今日头条新闻的答案。
Get answers on today's headlines.
突发财报新闻。
Breaking earnings news.
以及重大市场动态。
And big market moves.
访问bloomberg.com/askradio，加入我们在彭博电台的对话。
Visit bloomberg.com/askradio to join the conversation right here on Bloomberg Radio.
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