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人工智能正进入其最具决定性的阶段，规模、安全与主权将决定谁领先、谁落后。
AI is entering its most consequential phase where scale, safety and sovereignty will determine who leads and who lags.
欢迎参加11月2日至3日在伦敦举行的彭博科技大会，来自商业、金融和政策领域的全球领袖将共同探讨塑造人工智能未来的关键权衡。
Join Bloomberg Tech in London on November second and third as global leaders across business, finance and policy examine the defining trade offs shaping the future of AI.
感谢我们的主赞助商Salesforce，以及支持赞助商IDA Ireland和施耐德电气。
Thank you to our presenting sponsor Salesforce and supporting sponsors IDA Ireland and Schneider Electric.
更多信息请访问bloomberglive.com/techlondon。
Learn more at bloomberglive.com/techlondon.
彭博音频工作室。
Bloomberg Audio Studios.
播客。
Podcasts.
广播。
Radio.
新闻。
News.
这里是彭博市场观察播客。
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日早上7点（东部时间），通过Apple CarPlay或Android Auto上的彭博商业应用，收听我们的直播。
Catch us live weekdays at 7AM eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
无论您在哪里收听播客，都可以点播收听，或者通过YouTube观看我们的直播。
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
迈克·里德会说我不该这么做，他是加拿大皇家银行的高级美国经济学家，但十四分钟前我拿到了一个不错的ADP数据。
Mike Reid's gonna say I shouldn't do this, senior US economist RBC, but I got a good ADP number fourteen minutes ago.
所以我看了看收益率，三十年期国债收益率是5.57。
And so I look at the yield, and we are 5.57 in the thirty year bond.
你们是不是在仔细看今天18条经济数据发布后的收益率变化？
Are you guys micro looking at yields coming off 18 lines of economic data here today?
我，我的意思是，你说得对。
I I mean, you said it.
确实有很多信息需要消化。
There's a lot to digest.
所以你们……
So you...
接下来会有就业数据。
You're gonna have the employment data.
今天早上我们已经提前看到了。
We got the sneak peek this morning.
还会有通胀数据。
We get the inflation data.
还有GDP修正值，以及一些其他指标，我觉得这些对AI投资来说都是重要的信号。
We get the revisions to GDP, and we do get some of those other measures, I think, that are important signs for AI investment.
我们确实认为，像耐用品订单这样的数据会继续向好。
We do think that continues when you look at things like durable goods orders.
要消化的东西很多，但归根结底，如果一切看起来都积极，我想你可以预期利率会继续走高。
A lot to unpack, but at the end of the day, if everything is looking positive, I think you can expect that rates continue to move higher.
我的意思是，咱们先不提石油，因为它每天都会因为社交媒体上的帖子而大幅波动。
I mean, let's just set oil aside because it whips around every day based upon social media posts here.
核心通胀，你怎么看？
Underlying inflation, how do you view that?
因为它就在那里，很顽固，而且我觉得它肯定引起了美联储的注意。
Because it's it's there, it's sticky, and I think it's definitely got the attention of the Federal Reserve.
你对核心通胀有什么看法？
How do you think about underlying inflation?
我们现在确实很担心这个。
We are concerned about it right now.
我们的思路是把它分成三大类来看。
And the way we're thinking about it is kind of putting it into three buckets.
首先是服务业，我们把它单独拆出来。
And you have your services, which we're splitting out.
然后是住房部分，我们认为今年的去通胀基本已经完成了。
You have the housing component, which we think the disinflation there is largely done for this year.
明年可能会稍微好一点，但基本上就是横盘，而这在整体里占很大一块。
Maybe you get a little help next year, but for the most part, it's just gonna move sideways, and that's a big chunk of the bucket.
然后是核心服务，不包括住房。
Then you have core services, ex housing.
而且劳动力市场表现这么好，几乎没有什么通胀下降的迹象。
And with the labor market doing as well as it has been, there's really little disinflation.
所以工资部分，也就是薪酬方面的贡献，不太可能带来什么帮助。
So the wage component, what's contributing in terms of compensation there, unlikely to provide any help.
再看看核心商品方面还有什么能帮忙的，我有点担心，因为想想能源的情况，运费价格看起来开始上涨了……
And when you look at what's left to provide that help in core goods, I'm concerned because when you think about the energy story, it's it's freight prices that that are starting to look like they're moving higher to the...
而且回顾2020年，同比变化幅度差不多，这会开始渗透到核心商品领域。
And and when you look back at 2020, they're comparable in terms of a year over year change, and that's gonna start to bleed through into the core good space.
所有这些都说明通胀正在往错误的方向发展。
All of this says inflation's moving in the wrong direction.
所以，今天我们会看到核心PCE年化率是3.3%。
So, I mean, we'll see core PCE today on an annualized basis, 3.3%.
这可不是美联储想看到的。
So that's not what the Fed is looking for here.
那从另一个角度看，劳动力市场看起来确实相当稳固。
So on the other side of the equation, the labor market, I mean, seems pretty darn solid.
那表面之下有没有什么裂缝是我们需要注意的？
Is there any cracks underneath the surface that we should be paying attention to?
没有。
No.
我们一直在观察。
And we've been looking.
上周我们发了一篇文章，这也是我一直在关注的东西。
We put a piece out last week, and and and it's something I look at.
有些指标大多数人不会注意，比如因经济原因从事兼职工作的情况，还有总工时。
Some of these measures that most people don't pay attention to, things like part time work for economic reasons, aggregate hours.
当你去看这些指标时，真的……
And when you look at those, there's there's...
很难找到任何疲软的迹象。
It's really hard to find any weakness.
总工时确实还在继续增长。
The aggregate hours really, continues to grow.
这正好说明对劳动力的需求还在持续。
That just shows a continued demand for labor.
而且，你看那些因为经济原因而做兼职的情况，也说明工时并没有被削减。
And, when you look at things like part time for economic reasons, again, suggesting hours aren't being cut.
实际上，工时还在增加。
In fact, they're being expanded.
我觉得，尽管有些新闻说应届毕业生找工作难，但归根结底，在4.1%的失业率下，很难说现在劳动力市场有什么疲软。
And I think despite some of the headlines about recent grads struggling, at the end of the day, at a four one, it's it's hard to argue there's weakness in the labor market right now.
我们请到了迈克·里德，接下来要聊经济话题。
Mike Reid with us as we go into the economics.
稍后我们会为您带来相关内容。
So let's have that for you in a moment.
他有幸与弗朗西斯·唐纳德共事。
The privilege he has of working with Francis Francis Donald.
相当扎实。
Pretty solid.
每周五天。
Five days a week.
这……
It's...
迈克得有耐心。
Mike's gotta have patience.
对。
Yep.
总结一下，负责加美边境的是内森·詹森吗？
Summarize, is it Nathan Jensen who does your Canadian US border?
是的。
Yes.
这些报告，尤其是PCE，会受到关税影响吗？
Are these reports, particularly PCE, affected by tariffs?
是的，确实如此。
They are.
所以我们正在考虑的一个问题是，当然，在加拿大那边，这会对加拿大经济产生什么影响。
And so so one of the things we're thinking about is, certainly, on the Canadian side, how that's gonna impact the Canadian economy.
那里的影响会更大。
It's gonna be more impactful there.
你知道，根据目前的环境，我们认为这可能会导致那边减少多达九万个工作岗位。
You know, right now, based on the current environment, we do think it could reduce employment there up to about 90,000 jobs.
那这边呢？
What about here?
这是否是我们通胀的一部分？
Is it part of our inflation
计算？
calculation?
就针对加拿大的直接关税而言，影响不大。
As as far as the the direct tariffs on Canada, not so much.
我们认为这更多是双方之间的谈判策略。
We think it's more about kind of a negotiating strategy between the two sides.
但更广泛地说，关税仍然存在。
But more broadly, we still have tariffs that are in place.
我们担心的一点是去年关税前库存的消耗情况。
And one thing we're concerned about is the rundown of the pre tariff inventories that we saw last year.
好的。
Okay.
我们仍然认为还有大约一到两个季度的库存需要消化。
We still think you have about a quarter or two of inventory drawdown.
库存消化。
Inventory drawdown.
非常有意思。
Very interesting.
迈克·里德对此有看法。
Mike Reid with this.
我们马上回来，尽量给你最好的经济分析。
We're gonna come back, give you the best we can on the economic analysis here.
股市上涨。
Equities lift.
报告发布前，期货上涨11点。
Futures up 11 into the report.
这里是彭博监控。
It's Bloomberg's surveillance.
美联储偏好的通胀指标出炉了，显示8月份通胀升温。
And the Fed's preferred inflation gauge is out, and it shows inflation heated up in August.
个人消费支出价格指数环比上涨0.3%，因为消费者为许多商品和服务支付了更多费用。
The personal consumption expenditures price index rising three tenths of a percent month over month as consumers paid more for many goods and services.
不过，同比来看，PCE指数上涨了3.4%。
Year over year though, the PCE index up 3.4%.
这低于预期的3.7%，也低于上个月看到的3.7%。
This is less than the 3.7% expected and less than the 3.7% we saw the prior month.
接下来看核心PCE，它剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格，环比上涨了0.2%。
Let's move to core, PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices month over month, rising two tenths of a percent.
所以比预期的0.3%要低，和上个月持平。
So less than the three tenths expected and right in line with the prior month.
核心PCE同比也稍微软了一点，上涨了3%，而预期是3.3%。
Core PCE year over year also coming in bit softer here, up 3% versus estimates for 3.3%.
上个月也是3.3%。
The prior month was also 3.3%.
无线电话服务和机票价格是推动核心通胀上升的主要因素。
Wireless telephone services and airfares driving core inflation higher.
与此同时，8月份消费者支出大幅反弹，环比上涨0.9%，符合预期，远高于上个月的0.2%涨幅。
Meantime, consumer spending rebounding sharply in August, up nine tenths of a percent, in line with estimates and a lot higher than the two tenths of a percent rise we saw the prior month.
另外，个人收入仅微增0.2%。
Meantime, personal incomes up a scant two tenths of a percent.
所以，我们花的比挣的多。
So, were spending more than we were bringing in.
所以，又一次有点出乎意料。
So, once again, a bit of a surprise here.
PCE数据比预期的要温和。
A softer than expected read on PCE.
核心PCE同比上涨3%，而预期是3.3%。
PCE up 3%, core that is, year over year estimates were for 3.3%.
所以，各位，虽然仍远高于美联储2%的目标，但比预期要好一些，汤姆和保罗。
So, still guys, well above the Fed's 2% target, but a bit better than expected, Tom and Paul.
亚历克西斯，非常感谢。
Alexis, thanks so much.
市场方面，期货现在上涨10点，报33。
Markets, futures up 10 now, 33.
纳斯达克也上涨了半个百分点。
Nasdaq up half a percent as well.
收益率下降，随着人们消化亚历克西斯的报告，收益率开始回落。
Yields come in, and they begin to come in as the people digest Alexis' report.
十年期收益率下降了三个基点，现在是5.20%。
Ten year yield in three basis points, 5.20%.
我们很荣幸请到了迈克·里德，因为弗朗西斯·唐纳德和迈克·里德在名义GDP分析方面无人能及。
We're advantaged Mike Reid with us because Francis Donald and Mike Reid do nominal GDP analysis like nobody.
特别感谢那些关注国内名义GDP的经济学家们。
Major shout out to the economists who noted domestic nominal GDP.
我……
I...
迈克，GDP价格指数是6.1%，加上GDP年化增长率上修到2.2%。
Mike, 6.1% GDP price index plus upward revision on GDP annualized 2.2.
我粗略算了一下，名义GDP有8%。
I'm rocking 8% simplistic nominal GDP.
这简直是香蕉共和国。
That's Banana Republic.
我们怎么才能成功地把这个数字降下来呢？
How do we bring that down successfully?
我不知道你能不能做到。
I don't know if you can.
我是说，这……
I mean, this...
这里面很大一部分是AI的故事。
A big part of this is the AI story.
而且如果美联储处于加息周期，那也不会阻止我们在AI领域看到的持续投资。
And if the Fed is is in a hiking cycle, that's not gonna stop the the continued investment we see in AI.
就像我们之前看到的，你看，消费者数据确实令人担忧。
As we saw earlier, look, the data for the consumer is concerning.
支出超过了收入。
You have spending outpacing incomes.
通胀在往错误的方向发展。
You have inflation moving in the wrong direction.
是的。
Yes.
我们得到的数据比预期的要弱，但我认为那是方法的问题。
We got a a weaker number than expected, but I think that's due to methodology.
所以展望未来，现在有一些力量在起作用，不是加息周期能解决的。
So looking ahead, this this is just you have forces at play that aren't gonna be resolved by a hiking cycle.
你提到了消费支出。
And you mentioned the spending here.
个人收入增长了0.2%。
I mean, personal income rose 0.2%.
个人支出增长了0.9%。
Personal spending rose 0.9%.
这是不可持续的。
That's not sustainable.
不能每周都刷信用卡来买这些东西。
It can't keep hitting my credit card every week for that stuff.
哦，这正是我们真正担心的地方。
Oh, and that's that's where we're really concerned.
这份报告里我比较喜欢的一个指标是非房贷个人利息支付。
One of the measures I like in this report is the measure of non mortgage personal interest payments.
当你把它看作个人可支配收入的一部分时，也就是和储蓄率同一个分母的那个，大约是2.5%。
And when you look at that as a share of disposable personal income, which is the same Yep.
对，就是那个分母。
Denominator as as the saving rate, it's about 2.5%.
所以我很好奇今天这个数字是多少。
So I'm curious to see what it is today.
但想想未来，如果美联储继续加息，这个数字会上升。
But when you think about what's ahead, if the if the Fed continues to hike, that's gonna move higher.
而让我担心的是2.8%这个数字。
And and the number that concerns me is 2.8%.
如果排除新冠疫情导致的衰退，之前的三次衰退，当非房贷个人利息支付达到2.8%时，我们都进入了衰退。
If you take out the COVID recession, the past three recessions prior to that, when you've hit 2.8% of that non mortgage personal interest payment, we've gone into recession.
所以也就是说，它...
So that is to say, it...
这确实会给消费者带来压力。
It's really something that's that's going to squeeze consumers.
好的。
Okay.
你再说一遍。
Repeat that again.
你说的这一点太重要了。
That's so important you said.
2.8% 是什么意思？
What is 2.8%?
就是消费者在非房贷方面支付的利息金额。
So it's the the amount of interest consumers are paying in terms of non mortgage payments.
比如信用卡贷款、汽车贷款、学生贷款，以及任何个人
So so things like credit card loans, auto loans, student loans, any personal
贷款。
loans we have.
而且这个数字还在上升。
And that's becoming elevated.
而且它……
And and it and
美联储降息的时候，它也没有降下来。
it didn't shift lower when the Fed was cutting.
所以，如果你继续看到消费者，就像你说的，用信用卡消费，这将继续挤压他们。
And so if you continue to see consumers, to your point, you know, use credit cards to spend, this is gonna continue to squeeze them.
迈克，别跟我们客气。
Mike, don't don't be a stranger.
迈克·里德今天和我们在一起。
Mike Reid with us.
非常感谢你。
Thank you so much.
加拿大皇家银行，我要……
RBC, I'm gonna...
各位，不好意思。
I'm sorry, folks.
RBC的朋友们，就是加拿大皇家银行，永远都是。
RBC people, it's the Royal Bank of Canada and always will be.
RBC的迈克·里德，来给我们分析一下。
Mike Reid of RBC, to give us perspective.
现在期货涨了30点。
Futures up 30 now.
纳斯达克开盘涨了0.4%。
They launch Nasdaq up four tenths of a percent.
VIX指数从16点回落到15.76。
The VIX comes in from that 16 level to 15.76.
美元这边有点走弱。
A little bit of dollar weakness here.
自从埃里克·维诺格拉德研究中国历史那会儿，就没见过这种情况，那都是很久以前的事了。
Haven't seen that since Eric Winograd was, you know, ages ago studying Chinese history.
我是说，我现在看到十年期收益率在两个基点。
I mean, I'm looking here ten year yield in two basis points.
我很惊讶三十年期债券没有降到5.56，这本来是好事。
I'm shocked the thirty year bond doesn't come in 5.56 as all sorts of good things.
我们今天聊得很愉快。
We have wonderful conversations today.
从Max Keene到Mike Reid，跨度真大。
You go from Max Keene to Mike Reid.
现在有请Eric Winograd，他是AllianceBernstein的首席经济学家，总能带来重要的见解。
So Now Eric Winograd with his chief economist AllianceBernstein always with important perspective.
Eric，我看看我们现在的情况，你觉得通胀是粘性的，但不会加速。
I I look, Eric, at where we are and your idea that inflation is sticky and not accelerating.
我觉得对我们所有听众来说，这是关键争论点。
I think to all our listeners, that's the key debate.
来聊聊这个。
Discuss that.
你看。
Look.
通常，当美联储开始收紧货币政策时，是因为通胀在上升。
When the Fed embarks on a tightening cycle, typically, it's because inflation is going up.
但我们现在看到的并不是这种情况。
That's not really what we're seeing here.
我们只是看到通胀没有下降。
We're just seeing it not come down.
如果你看看今天的数据，里面也有更多这样的迹象。
And if you look at today's data, there's more of that in there.
PCE指数，核心PCE指数，都高于美联储的目标，但它们正在逐渐朝着正确的方向移动。
The the the PCE index, the core PCE index are running above the Fed's target, but they're gradually moving in the right direction.
所以，这是一种不同于许多人习惯的紧缩周期。
And so that's a different type of tightening cycle than many people are used to.
他们并不是在试图放缓经济。
They're not trying to slow the economy.
他们并不是想把经济压下去。
They're not trying to to to crimp things down here.
他们只是想加快这个过程。
They're just trying to accelerate this process
让通胀更快地降下来，之前已经加息五次了。
of inflation for to the second, the third, we had someone in earlier five rate increases.
这不是线性的。
It's nonlinear.
这些加息什么时候才能真正起作用，把通胀降到更可接受的水平？
When do those rate increases click in to bring your inflation where it is down to something more acceptable?
这就是央行面临的经典挑战：你今天加息，明天通胀不会立刻变化。
So that's the classic challenge for central banking is that you can raise rates today and it doesn't move inflation tomorrow.
通常需要九到十二个月。
It takes nine to twelve months.
在我看来，尤其是在你想让通胀稍微快点下降的情况下，这注定是一个非常渐进的周期。
And that to me, particularly in an environment where you're trying to get inflation to to move just a little bit quicker, is a recipe for a very gradual cycle.
这里没有紧迫感。
There's no urgency here.
通胀并没有在加速。
Inflation is not accelerating.
他们只是需要让条件，或者说他们认为需要让条件稍微收紧一点，才能让通胀降得更快一些。
They just need to get conditions or they believe they need to get conditions a little bit tighter to make it go a little faster.
在我看来，这更像是循序渐进的紧缩周期，而不是快速激进的紧缩。
To me, that's a recipe for a constrained gradual cycle rather than a a rapid aggressive one.
美国第二季度GDP年化增长率上调至2.2%，而第二次预估为1.5%。
US second quarter GDP was revised up to 2.2% annualized compared with the second estimate of 1.5%.
确实。
Sure.
保罗会说这很稳健。
Paul would say that's solid.
这确实很稳健。
That is solid.
所以我的意思是，经济很强劲，但强劲经济的一部分代价就是会有一定程度的通胀。
So I mean, the economy is strong, but part of the cost of having a strong economy is having a certain amount of inflation.
有些人来这里说，嘿。
And some folks are coming in here saying, hey.
你知道，十年期收益率在五又四分之一左右，不管具体是多少，这和当前经济的增长是相符的。
You know, the ten year yield at, you know, five and a quarter, whatever it is, that's consistent with how this economy is growing.
这么说公平吗？
Is that fair?
所以我想我会看看
So I I guess I would look at
然后说，经济很稳健。
it and say, The economy is solid.
我觉得美联储是这样想的：经济足够稳健，可以让他们开始一个周期，如果劳动力市场疲软，就能让通胀下降得更快一些。
And the way I think the Fed is thinking about this is the economy is solid enough to allow them to embark on a cycle to get inflation to come down a little faster if the labor market were weak.
如果经济疲软，他们可能就不会这么做了。
If the economy were weak, they probably wouldn't be doing that.
他们原本以为经济会自己把通胀降下来。
They'd figured the economy would bring inflation down on its own.
好的。
Okay.
至于十年期国债收益率，真正有意思的是，如果你不只看最近一次利率变动，而是回顾过去几次利率变动——顺便说一句，这些都是降息。
As far as the ten year yield, what's really interesting is, you know, if you look not just at the last rate move, but go back to the last several rate moves, all of which were cuts by the way.
这个周期很不寻常，因为美联储降息的时候，长期债券收益率反而在上升。
This cycle is unusual because when the Fed was cutting rates, long bond yields were going up.
而现在他们加息了，长期债券收益率还在上升。
And now that they've raised rates, long bond yields are still going up.
所以这告诉我们，这个周期其实跟美联储关系不大。
So so so that tells us that this cycle isn't really about the Fed.
那跟什么有关呢？
What is it about?
你知道吗，这真是个谜。
You know, that is a mystery.
而且我敢肯定，你这里有很多人来
And I I am sure that you have lots of people who come in here
找你……
to you....
就是那个房间里的大象——债务和赤字问题。
Elephant in the room called the debt and the deficit.
当然。
Sure.
但这个问题已经存在很长时间了，而且没有特别的理由认为它正在加速恶化。
But that's been true for a very long time and there's no particular reason to think it's accelerating.
嗯，在整个这个周期里，答案确实是肯定的，而且在长期债券收益率开始上升的那个时点，并没有发生什么变化。
Well, during the entirety of this cycle, the answer to that is yes, and there is nothing that changed at the point when long bond yields started to go up.
我非常同意你的看法，这确实在其中起作用，但我不认为它是唯一的影响因素。
I strongly agree with you that that plays a role in this, but I don't think it's the only variable at play.
是的。
Yes.
我们正在实行不负责任的财政政策。
We're running irresponsible fiscal policy.
在一个经济强劲、稳固或稳定，或者随便你怎么形容的经济体中，出现占GDP 6%的预算赤字，这完全说不通。
To have a 6% of GDP budget deficit in an economy that is strong or solid or stable or whatever you wanna pick doesn't make any sense.
再加上政策的多变和不可预测性。
You combine that with policy volatility and unpredictability.
关税一会儿加，一会儿又取消。
You have tariffs on, tariffs off.
油价一会儿涨。
You have oil prices up.
一会儿又跌。
You have oil prices down.
地缘政治一会儿紧张，一会儿又缓和。
Geopolitics on, geopolitics off.
财政部还不断调整它的发债计划。
The treasury department changing its issuance calendar.
我们还在干预外汇市场。
We're intervening in FX markets.
所有这些因素也都推高了风险溢价。
All of those argue for higher risk premium as well.
所以当我看到长期债券收益率时，我觉得不能只用一种解释。
So when I look at where the long bond yield is, I don't think it's any one explanation.
我觉得是所有这些不同的变量混在一起，才把收益率推到了那个位置。
I think it's a smorgasbord of all these different variables that are combining to put it there.
沃尔什主席对把通胀率降到2%这件事非常执着。
Chairman Walsh, is just absolutely adamant about getting that inflation number down to 2%.
你知道吗？
You know?
而且我在杜克大学上了两学期的经济学课，感觉自己就是专家了。
And based upon my two semesters of economics at Duke, I feel like I'm an expert.
我真看不出2%有什么特别神奇的地方。
I don't see the real magic of 2%.
而且为什么……
And why...
我的意思是，今天刚公布的核心PCE是3%。
I mean, we're at 3% core PCE today that just got reported.
也许这就是我们经济的现状。
Maybe that's where our economy is.
我的意思是，我们正在……
I mean, we're re...
把制造业搬回来。
Reshoring all this stuff.
我们在削减移民，所以出现了一些工资通胀。
We're cutting immigration, so we got some wage inflation out.
我也不太清楚。
I I don't know.
也许这就是新的数字。
Maybe that's the new number.
所以2%这个神奇的数字，你说得对。
So the magic of 2%, and you're right.
2%其实没什么神奇的。
There's nothing magical about 2%.
所以那个……
So the one...
美联储选了2%，他们选这个数是因为它看起来合理，而且因为新西兰央行先选了2%。
Fed picked 2%, they picked it because it seemed like a reasonable number and because the New Zealand Central Bank picked two percent first.
并不是有什么深奥的数学分析得出2%是最优的。
It's not like there was some deep mathematical analysis that concluded 2% was optimal.
但既然你选了它，那就是目标了。
But now that you've picked it, that's the target.
为了……
In order...
而且为了保持，抱歉，他们的信誉，他们觉得必须坚持2%这个目标。
And in order to retain, excuse me, their credibility, they feel like they need to adhere to that 2% target.
我一直相信，而且很久以来就相信，从大局来看，只要通胀率保持在2%到2.5%之间，而且通胀预期保持稳定，他们就会满意，因为2%本身并没有什么神奇之处。
I believe and have believed for a long time that in the grand scheme of things, they'll be satisfied if inflation runs between two and two and a half as long as that's inflation expectations stay contained precisely because there is no magic to 2%.
他们真正在寻找的，任何央行真正在寻找的，是让家庭和企业做计划的时候，根本不会去考虑通胀。
What they're really looking for, what any central bank is really looking for is the idea that when households and when businesses make their plans, they don't think about inflation.
这就是他们的目标。
And that's, you know, that's what they're targeting.
而且我猜，对大多数人来说，2%的通胀和2.25%的通胀之间的差别，就像四舍五入的误差一样，在日常生活中根本感觉不到。
And I suspect that for most people, the difference between 2% inflation and two and a quarter percent inflation is a rounding error that they won't perceive in their daily life.
但为了回到那个状态，美联储认为他们需要加强自己的信誉，而他们现在所做的，就是通过开始一个我预期是有限的紧缩周期，也就是在这个时候加息，来加强信誉。
But in order to get back to that point, the Fed believes that they need to reinforce their credibility, and and that's what they're doing by starting what, again, what I expect to be a limited tightening cycle, but by raising rates at this point.
Eric Winograd，非常感谢你今早代表AllianceBernstein从达特茅斯带来这些精彩的学术观点，连续请到Mike Reid和Eric Winograd，这正是我们想要的。
Eric Winograd, thank you so much for AllianceBernstein this morning out of Dartmouth with all of his good academics here and to have back to back Mike Reid and Eric Winograd is what it's about.
请继续收听。
Stay with us.
稍后，Bloomberg Surveillance将有更多内容。
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
市场变动，头条新闻不断，最重要的还是背景信息。
As markets move and headlines break, what matters most is context.
订阅彭博，您将获得无与伦比的报道、深入的分析和强大的工具，帮助您理清头绪。
A Bloomberg subscription gives you unmatched reporting, sharp analysis, and powerful tools that help you connect the dots.
访问 bloomberg.com/podcast offer 了解更多。
Visit bloomberg.com/podcast offer to learn more.
您正在收听的是彭博市场观察播客。
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日东部时间早上七点到十点，我们直播，欢迎收听。
Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.
可以通过彭博商业应用在 Apple CarPlay 和 Android Auto 上收听。
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
或者也可以在 YouTube 上观看我们的直播。
Or watch us live on YouTube.
我是乔伊。
This is Joy.
我大概说了三个星期了，快请诺德维格来。
I've been saying for, like, three weeks, get Nordvig.
请诺德维格来。
Get Nordvig.
你请不到诺德维格。
You can't get Nordvig.
他还在从世界杯里缓过来呢。
He's still recovering from the World Cup.
延斯·诺德维格来自Exante Data，他在外汇方面的研究非常出色，但现在他的研究范围已经大大扩展了。
Jens Nordvig joins us Exante Data with his wonderful work on foreign exchange, but it's really broadened out.
外汇是不是……
Is foreign...
外汇能不能告诉我们、给我们提供信息，它是不是目前关于固定收益和大宗商品的最深层的系统？
Does foreign exchange tell us, inform us, is the deepest system about fixed income, about commodities right now?
我觉得很明显，过去几周、甚至几个月发生的事情，震中其实一直是固定收益市场。
I think it's pretty clear that the epicenter of what has been happening over the last couple of weeks, couple of months really has been the fixed income market.
而且今年早些时候，我们把Exante Data和Vanda合并了，就是为了把股票方面的覆盖也纳入我们的服务范围。
And like we merged Exante Data with the Vanda earlier this year, To get the equity coverage as a part of what we offer.
现在连股票市场，所有的问题也都跟固定收益有关了。
And even the equity space, like all the questions are fixed income related now.
比如，这波大幅上涨什么时候才会停？
Like when is this dramatic rise gonna stop?
股市什么时候才能恢复？
When is equity is gonna be okay again?
所以我觉得震中很明显。
So I think that epicenter is very clear.
美元需要突破才能成为改变局势的因素吗？
Do you need dollar to break as a change agent?
是不是得看到美元指数突破某个关键点位，比如像19994.09这样的水平？
Do you need to see DXY go $19,994.09...
你知道，它是不是终于要突破了？
You know, does it need to finally break?
所以，我觉得我们现在处在一个非常有趣的环境里，对吧，货币市场其实没怎么动，除了韩元，它一直在跟着AI的趋势走，可能说疯狂有点过了，但确实是可以理解的AI趋势。
So, think we're in this kind of really interesting environment, right, where currency markets haven't really moved that much except the Korean won that has been on this crazy AI, maybe not crazy, understandable AI trend.
但我觉得我们在货币市场关注的是，我们会到达一个固定收益市场快要崩溃的临界点，到时候我们不得不进行某种干预，对吧？
But I think what we're looking to in currency markets is we're gonna get to a point where the fixed income markets are gonna be at a kind of breaking point, where we're gonna have to have some kind of intervention, right?
三十年期收益率如果继续每隔几个月就上涨50个基点，那是不可能持续的。
We can have thirty year yields continuing to go up every few months, 50 basis points, it's not gonna be sustainable.
而且我们在美国已经看到了这种情况，对吧？
And we've seen it already in The US, right?
斯科特·贝森特上任后说，我们要通过回购来稳定市场。
Scott Besson came in and said, we're gonna try to stabilize with the buybacks.
你今天早上也讨论过这个，对吧？
You discussed it earlier this morning, right?
到目前为止，它还没有产生太大的影响，对吧？
It hasn't really had a huge impact so far, right?
但最终，我们不得不依靠央行资产负债表或其他资产负债表来提供某种支持，才能阻止这种情况。
But eventually, we'll have to have some type of backstop from Central Bank balance sheet to other balance sheet to stop it.
到那时候货币市场才会有反应，对吧？
And that will be when the currencies react, right?
因为那时候市场会看到，哦，有流动性进来阻止收益率上涨了。
Because that's when the market and see, okay, there's a liquidity that's coming in to stop the yields rising.
然后这就会传导到货币市场。
And that's going to then move into the currencies.
现在还没到那一步，但我觉得今年是个过渡年，我们会达到那个点。
We're not there yet, but I think this year is a transition year where we'll get to that point.
Jens，我看了你的笔记，你提到长期收益率走高，还提到一个公司债交易可能产生影响。
Jens, just looking at your notes here and as you talk about the long end moving higher, you talk about a corporate bond deal that may be impacting.
市场上Paramounts有520亿美元的投资级、高收益银行贷款，大量债券涌入市场。
The Paramounts in the market was $52,000,000,000 worth of investment grade, high yield bank loan, a lot of paper coming to the market.
但我从来没听过或见过有人讨论公司债交易会影响整个国债市场。
But I've never heard or seen anybody discussing whether a corporate bond deal could impact the broader treasury market.
没有。
No.
我觉得现在市场这么紧张，就像我们现在看到的这样，任何小事情都可能成为导火索，甚至更小的事情也能让市场动荡。
I think it's it's when the markets are so on edge, as we're seeing right now, like the catalyst kind of broadens out and even smaller things can actually kind of destabilize the market.
所以，显然大家都很关注超大规模发行，现在它开始在长期端和美国国债市场竞争，成为和美国国债一样重要的发行方。这是几年前我没想到的。
So, obviously there's a lot of focus on the hyperscale issuance, Which is now starting to compete in the long end with The US Treasury market as being like an equally important issuer from the US treasury, It's something that a couple of years ago, I set Do you that
你同意吗？
agree with that?
当我们预测到2007年时，看起来十年期以上的发行量会很大，因为数据中心是长期融资项目。
When we do the projections into 2007, it looks like the issuance above ten year, because the data centers are very long term financing projects.
它的规模可能大致相当于
It could be of roughly the same magnitude as
是的。
the Yeah.
国债
Treasury
如果几年前我在这里说这个，你可能会把我赶出演播室，说：你抽了什么？
If I come here and said this a couple of years ago, you'd probably kick me out of the studio saying, okay, what are you smoking?
所以，
So,
但是这次债券抛售是全球性的问题。
but this bond sell off, it's been a global issue.
不只是美国。
It's not just The US.
那这说明了什么？
So, what is that telling you?
对，所以过去几年我们看到的情况，对吧？
Yeah, so what we've seen over the last couple of years, right?
全球债券市场和美国联系太紧密了，很难看到任何脱钩。
That global bond markets are so tied to The US that it's quite hard to see any decoupling.
但我确实认为，如果你看收益率曲线的形状，最极端的例子是瑞士，对吧？
But I do think if you look at the curve shapes, you can see like the most extreme example is Switzerland, right?
那里没有债务。
Where they have no debt.
那里没有曲线变陡的情况。
You don't have curve steepening there.
所以，还是有一些差异的。
So, there is some differences.
而且我想说，如果你看这周的情况，对吧？
And I would also say if you look at this week, right?
甚至今天，哪些曲线在变陡？
And even today, like which curves are steepening?
今天美国曲线仍然在变陡。
The US curve is still steepening today.
今天法国曲线也仍然在变陡。
The French curve is still steepening today.
所以，这似乎是一个趋势，全球债券收益率是相关的，对吧？
So, that does seem to be a trend where, global bond yields are correlated, right?
但是，在债务问题最严重的地方，曲线斜率变得更加陡峭，问题也更突出。
But the slope of the curve is more problematically steep in the places where debt issues are the most severe.
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我们请到了Exante的Jens Nordvig。
Jens Nordvig with us with Exante.
接下来我们还会继续和他聊。
We're going to continue with them coming up.
Lisa Abramow正在采访Ken Griffin，今天对匹兹堡的卡内基梅隆大学来说是个重要的日子，他们现在把目光投向迈阿密。
Lisa Abramow is with Ken Griffin on his very important day for Pittsburgh's Carnegie Mellon as they look to Miami.
稍后我会给你详细讲讲这件事。
I'll give you a treatment on there in a moment.
我们有幸请到Jens Nordvig，来聊聊这些头条新闻。
We are advantaged to have Jens Nordvig with us with these headlines.
让我来梳理一下这些重磅消息。
Let me go through these bombshell headlines.
德国宝马计划裁减五分之一的管理层人员。
BMW of Germany targets shedding a fifth of managers
为了
for
人工智能。
AI.
宝马的目标是两年后汽车制造销售回报率达到3%到5%。
BMW targets three to 5% auto making return on sales two years out.
宝马预计管理层裁员将在明年夏天前完成。
BMW expects management cuts to be completed by summer of next year.
宝马的管理层裁员是人工智能收购计划的一部分，不管那是什么意思。
BMW's management job cuts are part of an AI buyout, whatever that means.
宝马将增加更多高于X7的高端车型。
BMW to add more high end models above the x seven.
宝马将减少车型种类，停产一些车型。
BMW to reduce variance to discontinue some models.
我看着日元，它简直反映了中国的影响。
I look at this yen, and it just speaks of the impact of China.
我的意思是，这对大众、宝马、福特来说简直是呼救信号。
I mean, it just screams for Volkswagen, BMW, for Ford.
对于中国如何定价他们的产品，你有什么看法？
Thoughts on how China is pricing their goods.
是的，完全同意。
Yeah, absolutely.
比如，几十年前，人们担心日本会接管市场，对吧？
Like we, a couple of decades ago, there was this concern that Japan was gonna take over, right?
日本汽车制造商从包括美国在内的所有竞争对手那里抢占了市场份额。
And the Japanese automakers were gaining market share from everybody, including The US ones.
现在我们看看中国的情况，对吧？
And now we look at what's happening in China, right?
中国在全球抢占市场份额的速度比日本当年快得多。
And the speed at which China is taking market share globally is so much faster than what Japan ever did.
显然，你刚才读的那些头条新闻，对吧？
Obviously the headlines you're reading out, right?
就是这一点的体现。
It's a reflection of that.
比如德国汽车制造商现在压力真的很大。
Like German car producers are just really pressured.
第一，因为他们在中国的汽车销量几乎没有了。
Number one, because they don't sell cars in China almost at all anymore.
第二，因为他们在本土也受到了威胁。
And number two, because they also are getting threatened at home.
就是压力大。
Just pressure.
对，来自电动车的压力。
From the EVs, yeah.
所以，这对德国来说是一个非常棘手的局面。
So, this is a very challenging situation for Germany.
他们唯一的缓冲就是部分产能转向了军工生产。
Like the only offset they have really is that some of that production capacity is moving to military production.
因为德国正在增加国防开支。
Because Germany is ramping up their defense spending.
这是唯一的抵消因素。
That's the only offset.
但我们也面临更高的天然气价格。
But we also have the the much higher natural gas prices.
挑战是多方面的。
The challenges are are multifold.
别这么说。
Don't be strange.
Jens Nordvig，非常感谢你参加Exante。
Jens Nordvig, thank you so much for the Exante.
研究笔记非常出色。
Brilliant research notes.
我得说，他很久以前写的那本关于欧元的书绝对是权威之作。
I will say his book of a lifetime ago on the euro was absolutely definitive.
请继续收听。
Stay with us.
接下来，彭博观察节目还有更多内容。
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
您正在收听的是彭博观察播客。
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日东部时间早上七点到十点，我们直播，欢迎收听。
Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.
可以通过彭博商业应用在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听。
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
或者也可以在YouTube上观看我们的直播。
Or watch us live on YouTube.
各位，让我来介绍一下保罗·桑基。
Let me explain Paul Sankey, folks.
多年来，你看到的德意志银行研究报告，那还是在互联网出现之前。
For years, you'd get the Deutsche Bank research, and this is before the Internet.
那些报告都是用花岗岩刻出来的。
It was chiseled with granite.
是刻上去的。
It was chiseled.
不好意思。
Excuse me.
直接放上去就行。
Just just pop it.
走吧。
Let's go.
我们直接进入正题。
Let's get into this right here.
刻在地上了。
Chiseled into ground.
刻在地上了。
Chiseled into ground.
我们以前会收到那个……
We used to get the pep...
那些论文研究报告。
The paper research reports.
好的。
Alright.
你知道，我们现在和保罗·桑基坐在一起，他是桑基研究的首席分析师。
You know, we were sitting here with Paul Sankey, lead analyst at Sankey Research.
他是全球能源领域的权威声音。
He is the go to voice on global energy.
保罗，我过去二十四到四十八小时一直在看新闻，说大量原油正通过霍尔木兹海峡，真的是大量原油。
Paul, I've been reading over the last twenty four, forty eight hours that a lot of crude is getting through the Strait Of Hormuz, like a lot of crude.
为什么布伦特原油还在每桶103美元？
Why is Brent still at a $103?
为什么我们不按每桶80美元来交易呢？
Why aren't we trading this stuff at $80 a barrel?
哦，我觉得它会降下来的，因为，是的，你知道，我们得到的最新数据是每天2000万桶，这是最新的。
Oh, well, I think it's gonna come down because, yes, you know, the numbers we're getting are actually 20,000,000 barrels a day right now, the the very latest.
所以美国真的是把军事力量，特别是空军，全都投进去了。比如，有人告诉我他们有八架F-15战斗机一直在输油管线上飞来飞去，保护那条管线。
So The US has absolutely thrown the military, the air force particularly into, for example, I was told they have eight f fifteens constantly running up and down the petrol line to protect the petrol line.
那些F-15战斗机显然比无人机还快。
The the f fifteens apparently are faster than the drones.
所以，你知道，这让人不禁想到《壮志凌云》那些电影。
So, you know, it makes you wonder about Top Gun and stuff.
但让我印象最深的，显然是这项行动的巨大开销。
But, you know, what what strikes me obviously is the enormous expense of this effort.
而且这显然是美国全力以赴的军事行动，就是为了让石油流动起来，而且目前看来是成功的。
And it's clearly an all in military effort by by The US to to get the oil flowing and that's succeeding.
我觉得问题在于，你知道，中期选举之后会怎么样，因为现在这种开销显然是不可持续的。
I think the problem is, you know, what happens once we get through the midterms because it's clearly an unsustainably expensive effort right now.
而且你看到的，我刚才在看图表，实际上是一年期的远期原油价格现在正在大幅上涨。
And what you're seeing, I was just looking at the charts, is actually the year forward crude is now moving up quite aggressively.
所以一年期交货的价格已经超过80美元了。
So you're above 80 for one year delivery.
所以，你看，到明年这个时候，油价已经涨了不少。
So, you know, this time next year, the price of oil has gone up quite a lot.
为什么会这样？
Why is that?
再说，因为……我
Again, with the Because I
觉得你现在看到的所有迹象都指向2027年也会有问题。
think everything you're looking at now is pointing towards 2027 being a problem as well.
你知道，因为我们已经消耗了……
You know, because we've drawn down...
我们已经用完了全球石油储备中的六七个缓冲，这些缓冲可能不太为人所知。
We've run through the six or seven buffers that we had in global oil, which would be some of the less well known ones.
但比如说，沙特和阿联酋在亚洲已经储存了大量库存。
But for example, the Saudi and UAE had major inventories in Asia already stored.
一个明显的例子就是战略石油储备。
An obvious one is the strategic petroleum reserve.
这些储备都开始紧张了。
Those those are getting tight.
虽然战略石油储备还会再释放一批，但每天的消耗量已经从每天150万桶降到了大约15万桶，这样下去肯定撑不了多久。
There is another release of the strategic petroleum reserve coming through, but you've gone from one and a half million barrels a day of drawdown to more like a 150,000 barrels a day there, and that simply can't go on forever.
所以我们现在看到的原油供应，其实是一种短期的、像糖分一样快速消耗的刺激。
So this is a short term sort of sugar sugar rush of crude that we're getting.
说实话，我觉得美国军方这种高强度的开支，显然没法长期维持下去。
That isn't clearly is clearly, I don't think The US military effort can be sustained quite frankly at this level of expense.
把油开采出来之后，我们拿它做什么呢？
When you get the oil out, then what do we do with it?
我们得提炼它。
We gotta refine it.
第二个问题就是，你……
That's the second problem is that you...
我一直说，这就像推一根绳子，实际上，真正的瓶颈不是原油本身。
I keep saying you're pushing on a string and, you know, the fact of the matter is the constraint is not crude.
真正的瓶颈是柴油，而我们从霍尔木兹海峡几乎拿不到柴油。
The the constraint is diesel, and we're getting almost no diesel out of the Gulf Strait Of Hormuz.
Q8炼油厂以前供应希思罗机场60%的航空燃油。
The Q8 refinery used to supply 60% of Heathrow's jet fuel.
现在这些全都没了，欧洲基本上又陷入了能源危机，我们希望情况不会太糟，因为厄尔尼诺现象可能带来暖冬。
That's all now missing and you really have basically an energy crisis again in Europe that we're hoping won't be as bad as it might be because we're looking for a warm winter with El Nino.
但我觉得这个冬天也会非常动荡。
But I think we're also looking at a very volatile winter.
你知道，我们九月份刚经历了一场东北风暴，这可不是……
As you know, we just had a nor'easter here in September and that's not...
这来得太早了。
That's very early.
虽然不算罕见，但……
It's not unknown, but it's...
看起来我们可能会因为老天爷的不可抗力而遭遇能源中断。
It looks like we might have energy disruptions from force majeure from god himself or herself.
各位听众，保罗·桑基今天和我们在一起。
Paul Sankey with us, folks.
桑基研究公司，很高兴他今天能来我们节目。
Sankey Research thrilled he could be with us today.
我得说，我正从这场流感中恢复过来，今天彭博财经团队有两个人，保罗，也因为这个没来上班。
I should say in the plague that I'm getting over, now I have two people on the Bloomberg money team, Paul, with it out today.
是的。
Yes.
我看到了……
I saw that....
记住，什么……
Remember, what...
各位，如果你们周围有这种流感，或者这种肺炎，一定要去看医生。
Folks, if you've got this flu thing going around, this pneumonia thing, go to the doctor.
别硬扛。
Don't be a hero.
我真的要非常感谢大家对我的照顾，我们每天都在努力配合治疗。
I I can't say enough the the the care I've gotten, we're working it in every day.
保罗·桑基的观点我觉得非常准确，公众现在看透了那些政客简单化的言论和话术。
Paul Sankey, I think Paul's dead on here, and that the public is looking at simplistic politicians and their rhetoric.
如果你有机会跟那些拿着简单化、你知道的，黄金时段新闻里那种简短口号式的政客对话，
If you were talking to the politicians with their simplistic, you know, primetime news sound bites.
你会对他们说什么，让他们必须明白些什么呢？
What would you say to them that they need to understand?
政客们需要经历怎样的‘幡然醒悟’时刻？
What's the come to Jesus moment the politicians need?
我觉得是自由市场。你知道，那种为了短期压低油价而禁止柴油出口的想法——因为俄罗斯和中国都禁了柴油出口——这种对比会让你意识到这主意有多糟。
I think the free markets, you know, I think the idea that we would we would ban diesel exports exports in order to short term bring the price down because the Russians banned diesel exports and the Chinese banned diesel exports, you know, that's one of the sort of comparisons that makes you realize what a terrible idea it is.
我们已经是全球最大的油气生产和出口国了，这是一个令人惊叹的地位，但几乎所有人都低估了它给美国带来的好处。
It's like, no, you know, we got to this position of the world's biggest oil and gas producer and exporter, an amazing position that's greatly underestimated by almost everybody in terms of the benefits that it's bought to The US.
然后还要去折腾这些边际政策，结果你得到的可能只是……
And then to turn around and start mucking around with it at the margin in a way that, you know, you get a six...
你会得到……
You get a...
不管怎样，也就是柴油价格降低九十天的好处，但你却会失去二十年作为可投资炼油市场的资格。
Whatever it'd be, a ninety day benefit of lower diesel prices, and you get a twenty year discount for not being an investable, you know, place to put money in refining.
那你觉得，比如说，明年夏天，一加仑汽油或柴油的价格，或者布伦特原油的价格会是多少？
So then how do you perceive, say, next summer, a gallon of gas or a gallon of diesel or just the price of Brent.
嗯，我们经常用的一个对比是，如果柴油价格是6.5美元，那就相当于原油每桶250美元。
Well, one comparison that we're using regularly is if you're at $6.50 diesel, you're at $250 a barrel.
我觉得这样人们就能明白问题所在了。
I think that would help people realize what the issue is.
现在原油是100美元一桶，柴油却是250美元，而我们用的是柴油。
We've got a $100 crude, you got 250 diesel, and we use diesel.
现在所有的情况都是因为霍尔木兹海峡发生的事情，而且看起来结构上会非常危险。
Everything that is out there is that because of what's happened in Hormuz and because it looks like it's structurally gonna be very risky.
现在的情况是，伊朗人没有雷达，所以他们只是随机发射导弹，希望能击中一艘船。
What's happening here as well is the Iranians have no radar, so they're just randomly throwing missiles hoping to hit a boat.
你知道，这样做效率很低，不过幸好是这样。
You know, it's a very inefficient way to do it, thankfully.
但这确实说明他们不会停手。
But it really tells you they're not stopping.
你知道，我们得继续在那保持大规模军事存在。
You know, we're gonna have to either continue massive military presence down there.
你知道，现在这种军事存在导致油轮运费暴涨，因为那些国家公司用本国船只冒险通过海峡。
You know, that military presence right now is causing massive spikes in tanker rates because the tankers, the the state companies are using the state ships to get through the straight because they're prepared to risk.
然后他们在海峡外把货转到商业油轮上。
And then they're putting it on commercial tankers outside the straits.
哇。
Wow.
这使从沙特到中国的原油价格每桶增加了25美元。
That's adding $25 a barrel to the price of crude to get from Saudi to China.
去年，每桶还不到2美元。
Last year, it was under $2 a barrel.
所以运输成本是结构性上涨的。
So you have a structural transport increase.
这周，汤姆，就在周一，我参加了道达尔能源在哥伦布圆环的投资者会议。
This week, Tom, just on Monday, I was at the Total Energy's analyst meeting here at Columbus Circle.
他们做了几件事。
And a couple of things they did.
其中一件我觉得很聪明的是，道达尔能源自愿在法国对汽油和柴油价格设了上限。
One, I thought was brilliant is that Total Energy's voluntarily put a cap on gasoline and diesel prices in France.
所以公司自己主动这么做了。
So the company actually did it themselves.
这让我想到，对瓦莱罗来说，也许可以拿出十万、二十万桶限价的柴油给农民。
And that would be a suggestion to me for a Valero, you know, let's get, you know, a 100,000, 200,000 barrels of price capped diesel to the farmers.
这样大概能让政客们满意不少。
And that will probably satisfy the politicians a lot.
但总的来说，由于风险增加，你实际上需要比危机前更高的库存，而库存一直在大幅下降。
But broadly speaking, because of the enhanced risks, you actually need higher inventories arguably than you were holding before the crisis and inventories have been radically drawing down.
最后再说几个重要的数字。
So a of important numbers just to finish.
九月份全球库存突然每天减少四百万桶。
You drew down 4,000,000 barrels a day of global inventory suddenly in September.
库存下降突然加速，因为我们之前讨论的那些缓冲已经用完了。
So the drawdown suddenly accelerated because we'd blown through the buffers that we talked about things.
然后当然，输油管道也断了。
And then of course you lost the Petro line.
所以市场变得恐慌，这就是为什么油价到了一百，但与此同时，美国军方正在大规模增加原油供应，而这些原油需要五十天才能到达目的地。
So the market got panicky and that's why we're at a 100, but at the same time, actually The US military effort was massively ramping up the crude, which takes fifty days to reach its destination.
所以我认为油价会从这些水平大幅回落，前提是他们能维持目前每天两千万桶的出口量，看起来他们确实做到了。
So I think we're gonna come off these level of crude prices quite aggressively, assuming they maintain the 20,000,000 barrels a day of exports that they're achieving right now, apparently.
但柴油仍然是个大问题，因为你实际上没有采取任何措施来解决柴油问题。
But you're gonna remain in a major issue for diesel because you're actually doing nothing to address the diesel problem.
另外，汤姆，我还在关注的是，最终，最终，最终，国债利率和利率是否会与油价脱钩，因为你知道，过去八周，六周，油价每变动百分之一，利率就跟着变动百分之一。
The other thing I'm watching, Tom, is finally is finally, finally, just whether or not treasury rates, interest rates disconnect from oil because as you know, for the past eight weeks, six weeks, we've had a one on one oil moves a percent.
那些人，你可以直接查看，把图表叠加起来看。
Those guys, you that you can just check, overlay the charts.
我这周刚看到，油价开始下跌，但利率还在继续上升。
I've just seen this week, the beginning of oil trading off, but the interest rates continuing to rise.
我觉得如果这种情况开始出现，对市场来说会非常吓人。
And I think that's gonna be very scary for the market if that starts out.
保罗，再插一个进来。
Get one more in here, Paul.
好的。
Alright.
今天有个简单的问题，因为我敢肯定我们99%的听众就想知道这个。
Here's the simplistic question of the day because I'm sure 99% of our audience wants to just know this.
我们什么时候才能恢复正常？
When do we get back to normal?
我们还能回到一月份、十二月份那样的状态吗？从你们那边的油田世界，一直到我在泽西海岸36号公路的加油站，全球能源的整个链条，还能回到从前吗？
Do we ever get back to where we were January, December in terms of global energy and all the way from your world in the oil fields all the way down to my pump on Route 36 the Jersey Shore?
好吧，跟你说……
Well, tell...
你看。
Look.
我跟你说这个。
I tell you this.
我的标准说法是，如果你担心第三次世界大战，你其实不用担心，因为你已经身处其中了。
My standard line is if you're worried about World War three, you shouldn't be because you're in it.
而且，你知道，这就是第三次世界大战，它比乌克兰那种常规堑壕战要高好几个层级。
And, you know, this is World War three and there's a number of higher levels than the usual trench warfare in Ukraine.
现在的情况是，有一场人工智能世界大战。
You have a situation here where you have an AI world war.
还有一场金融世界大战。
You have a finance world war.
你知道，我们管它叫OFACS对UCAVS，也就是美国对无人机的制裁。
You know, we call it OFACS against UCAVS, which is the The US sanctions against drones.
而且那只是……
And that's just...
那是……
That's...
基本上可以把世界分成东西两半，第二条战线在……
Can split the world East West basically with a a second front front line in...
经过东京、韩国、台湾和澳大利亚。
Through Tokyo and and Korea and Taiwan and Australia.
我们怎么解决这个问题？
How do we resolve this?
我真的很希望中国能和我们达成共识，但你知道，我觉得华尔街一直支持特朗普对抗中国。
I I really would love to see the Chinese get on the same page as us, but, you know, I think Wall Street always supported Trump taking on China.
执行上有时不太理想，我们可以这么说，但我认为总体思路是，美国需要制定某种新的产业政策，逐步削弱中国的影响力。
The execution at times has been suboptimal, we can say, but I think the general ideas, you know, was that we have to make some sort of new industrial policy in The US and reduce the power of China over time.
希望将来能实现吧。
And that's, you know, hopefully something that can happen in the future.
但目前来看，这个问题相当棘手。
But at the moment, it's pretty intractable.
很难看出我们如何能恢复正常关系，尤其是彻底恢复所有行动，因为我们已经造成了结构性损伤。
It's pretty difficult to see how we normalize, certainly how we normalize ever again the straight of all moves because it's it's a structural damage that we've.
保罗，谢谢你。
Paul, thank you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
保罗·桑基，各位，保罗·桑基现在和我们在一起。
Paul Sankey Paul Sankey, folks, with us here.
请继续收听。
Stay with us.
稍后继续带来彭博观察的更多内容。
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
现在，bloomberg.com的订阅用户可以参与彭博广播的讨论。
Now bloomberg.com subscribers can shape the conversation on Bloomberg Radio.
我们每周都有一个精彩的问题。
We got a week at smart question.
你可以成为讨论的一部分。
Can be part of the conversation.
向你在广播中听到的专家和嘉宾提交问题。
Submit questions for experts and guests you hear on air.
访问bloomberg.com/askradio，向我们的主持人发送问题。
Visit bloomberg.com/askradio to send questions to our hosts.
你可能会在广播中听到这些问题被提出。
You may just hear them asked on the air.
仅限bloomberg.com订阅用户。
Exclusively for bloomberg.com subscribers.
获取关于今日头条、突发财报新闻和重大市场波动的解答。
Get answers on today's headlines, breaking earnings news, and big market moves.
访问bloomberg.com/askradio，加入我们在Bloomberg Radio上的对话。
Visit bloomberg.com/askradio to join the conversation right here on Bloomberg Radio.
您正在收听的是Bloomberg Surveillance播客。
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日东部时间早上7点到10点，我们直播，欢迎收听。
Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.
通过Bloomberg Business App，在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听。
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
或者，在YouTube上观看我们的直播。
Or watch us live on YouTube.
Julie Biel非常有天赋。
Julie Biel's incredibly gifted.
我很久以前在美林证券就认识她了，那时她才15岁，后来她在Kayne Anderson Rudnick凭借出色的西海岸学术背景一路努力。
I knew her ages ago at Merrill Lynch when she was 15, and she's worked her way through with some sterling West Coast academics at Kayne Anderson Rudnick.
所以通常，我们会和她聊经济方面的话题。
So usually, we talk to her about, you know, economic in that.
但是，朱莉，你的报告在人工智能方面真是非常有先见之明。
But, Julie, your note is just incredibly prescient on AI.
你一直在参加那些枯燥的会议，人们试图搞清楚数据中心之类的事情。
You've been going to the boring meetings of people trying to figure out data centers and all that.
今天早上，这里是富达海外投资巨头乔治·诺布尔。
Here's George Noble, the giant of Fidelity overseas this morning.
这次Anthropic的IPO是我四十五年职业生涯中见过的最危险的交易。
This anthropic IPO is the most dangerous deal I've seen in my forty five year career.
朱莉，从你的角度看，那些巨头们在哪里？
Julie, from your perspective, where are the mega people?
人工智能现在处于什么阶段？
Where is AI?
山姆·奥特曼，达里乌斯这周末还上了《周六夜现场》。
Sam Altman, Darius played on Saturday Night Live this weekend.
六个月后，或者甚至几年后，他们会在哪里？
Where are they in six months or for that matter, years?
天哪。
Oh my gosh.
这可是个大问题。
That is a big question.
我觉得他们真正的挑战在于，他们的商业模式正处于一个鸿沟之中，他们实际上只是资本的巨大消耗者，他们需要资本来继续增长，而他们需要增长来继续吸引投资者。
I I think the real challenge that they have is that they're in this chasm in their business model where they really are just huge users of capital, and they need that in order to continue their growth, and they need the growth in order to continue to draw investors in.
而且我认为他们的问题在于，他们释放了这项技术，却对它所引发的许多问题几乎没有承担任何责任。
And I think that the problem that they have is that they've unleashed this technology and taken very little responsibility for a lot of the problems that it has.
我觉得人们不会容忍这种情况的。
And I don't think that that's something that people are gonna put up with.
比如，如果我的孩子在幼儿园咬了另一个孩子，那是我的责任。
Like, if my kid in preschool bit another kid, that's on me.
我不能假装那不是我的责任。
I can't just, you know, pretend that that wasn't on me.
我认为真正的困难在于，我们希望他们真正负起责任，否则这些模型凭什么能发展到这么大呢？
And I think that that's the real struggle is we're looking for them to have some real accountability, or else why shouldn't these models be as large as they are?
乔治·诺布尔说得很精彩，他引用了美国……
George Noble, brilliantly, he quotes the American...
加拿大哲学家，韦恩·格雷茨基。
The Canadian philosopher, Wayne Gretzky.
对吧？
Okay?
你得滑到冰球要去的地方。
You gotta skip to the puck.
朱莉知道这个，因为他也是洛杉矶国王队的传奇人物。
Julie knows this because he was an iconic at the LA Kings as well.
诺布尔先生说，现在冰球正朝着客户的方向去，而客户感到害怕。
Now the puck is going to the customer, mister Noble says, and the customer is scared.
朱莉，根据你在摩根士丹利和其他公司参加的会议，你觉得有客户会这样吗？
Is there a customer out there, Julie, based on the meetings you've gone to at Morgan Stanley and other shops?
有……
There...
我觉得绝对有客户，而且我认为这项技术的应用将会真正改变我们所有人的生活。
I think there absolutely is a customer, and I I think that this technology has applications that are gonna be really life changing for all of us.
问题在于，要准确预测它对我来说真的非常非常困难。
The problem is is trying to predict it with any kind of certainty is to me really, really difficult.
比如说，如果你是电子表格刚出来时的会计，你肯定会担心自己的工作。
Like, think if you were an accountant when spreadsheets came out, you would be pretty worried about your job.
但如果你向前看，实际上我们后来雇了更多的会计。
But if you look forward, we've actually hired more accountants over time.
所以很难确切知道这项技术会带来什么影响。
So it's really difficult to know exactly what the implications of the technology are gonna be.
我喜欢投资那些我认为会成为受益者的公司，从他们的角度来看，他们会整合这项技术并变得更盈利，而不是说我想做卖铲子的生意，因为我不知道这个市场能持续多久，规模到底需要多大。
I think I like investing in companies that I think will be beneficiaries of it from a standpoint of they're gonna integrate it and become more profitable on their own side rather than saying, I wanna be in the picks and shovels because I just don't know what the duration is and how big it's gonna really need to get.
朱莉·比尔，现在市场活跃，道指上涨26点。
Julie Biel with this right now with an active market, Dow up 26 points.
保罗，我得走了。
Paul, I gotta go.
我这里有个头条新闻。
I got a headline here.
意大利债券风险现在飙升了整整100个基点。
Italian bond risk is now up in a full stick, a 100 beats.
法国和德国之间的利差一下子扩大了7个基点，达到125。
French Germany is just exploded out seven basis points to one twenty five.
如果你不明白这意味着什么，那也没关系。
If you don't know what that means, it doesn't matter.
我们待会儿用法语说。
We'll say it in French later.
但是，保罗，30年期国债，这个我们都懂，收益率上升到5.61%。
But then, Paul, the thirty year bond, we all understand that, rounded up 5.61%.
对。
Yep.
我的意思是，朱莉·比尔在好莱坞连6000平方英尺的房子都搬不进去。
I mean, Julie Biel can't move up to 6,000 square feet in Hollywood.
没错。
Exactly.
那么，朱莉，托马斯刚才提到的高利率环境，而且高端市场越来越明显，这对股票投资者来说意味着什么？
So, Julie, how does higher interest rate environments, which Thomas is pointing out just moving more and more on the high end here, What does that mean for stock investors?
也许对小盘股和中盘股的投资者来说。
Maybe small and mid cap investors.
这肯定是个不利因素。
It's gotta be a headwind.
对于……
For...
我觉得对于……
I think for...
如果你把小盘股作为一个整体来看，一般来说，高利率会更难应对，因为它们大多数是从银行贷款，所以利率是浮动的。
If you're thinking about small cap as a group, in general, higher interest rates are harder because most of them are borrowing at the banks, and so they're on variable rates.
而且很多公司杠杆率很高。
And a lot of them are highly levered.
我觉得如果能避开那些负债很高的公司，那肯定是对的。
I think if you can avoid companies that have a lot of leverage, that's what you definitely wanna be doing.
不过，利率上涨的原因也很重要。
But the reason why interest rates are going up is important too.
如果纯粹是因为通胀，那就不太妙了。
If it's solely about inflation, that's not great.
但如果同时也伴随着强劲的经济增长和劳动力市场，这对小盘股来说反而更有利。
But if it's also about their strong economic growth and their strong labor markets, that tends to be actually better for small caps.
所以你得更细致地看待这个问题。
So you have to kinda take a more nuanced look at it.
那么，我们该怎么看待这样一个环境呢？过去几个季度，股市一直由业绩驱动，而且业绩表现非常出色。
So how are we thinking about just an environment where this stock market has been driven by earnings and the earnings had just been extraordinary, over the last several quarters?
从你的角度来看，未来的盈利增长故事会呈现怎样的走势……
What's the earnings growth story looking...
接下来会怎么样？
Going forward from your perspective?
我觉得未来我们希望看到盈利增长的范围继续扩大。
I think going forward, we wanna continue seeing a broadening of the growth in earnings.
这些数字确实很惊人，但问题在于它们集中在科技领域，其中很大一部分是这些私营公司的重新估值。
The numbers have been pretty eye popping, but the problem is is that it's concentrated in technology with a huge chunk of it being the revaluations of these private companies.
非经营性收益，不是实际卖出更多产品，而是非经营性收益。
Nonoperating earnings, not actually selling more stuff, but non operating earnings.
然后我们在能源领域看到的，很难知道这种盈利改善能持续多久。
And then what we're seeing in energy, and it's hard to know how long that improvement in earnings is gonna last.
我们希望看到制造业和其他经济领域的盈利增长更广泛，这样才能真正确信增长是可持续的。
We wanna see more breadth into manufacturing and into other pockets of the economy in order to feel really, really confident that the growth is durable.
朱莉，非常感谢你。
Julie, thank you so much.
我得去处理突发新闻了，非常非常喜欢你的研究。
I have to run with breaking news, just love, love, love your research.
朱莉·比尔，首席市场策略师，来自凯恩·安德森·鲁德尼克。
Julie Biel with his chief market strategist Kayne Anderson Rudnick.
这里是彭博社的《Bloomberg Surveillance》播客，您可以在 Apple、Spotify 以及任何收听播客的平台获取。
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
每个工作日早上七点到十点（东部时间），您可以登录 bloomberg.com、iHeartRadio 应用、TuneIn 以及彭博商业应用程序进行直播收听。
Listen live each weekday, seven to 10AM eastern on bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app.
您也可以在每个工作日的 YouTube 上观看我们的直播，并且随时可以在彭博终端上收看。
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
还有《Bloomberg This Weekend》播客，为您带来新闻、政治以及彭博社轻松有趣的一面。
The Bloomberg this weekend podcast, news, politics, and the lighter side of Bloomberg.
人类皮肤是韩美业里最奇怪的新成分，不是吧？
Human skin is the weirdest new ingredient in the k beauty No.
太棒了。
Boom.
哦，是的。
Oh, yes.
确实如此。
It is.
所以这是一种从捐赠的人体组织中提取的皮肤增强治疗。
So it's a skin booster treatment derived from donated human tissue
好的。
Okay.
在首尔的美容诊所很流行。
Popular in Soul's Beauty Clinics.
有位医生说它是由死人制成的。
One doctor says it's made from dead people.
如果是从活人身上提取的，会不会很奇怪？
Would it be weird if it were from live people?
先暂停一下。
Just wanna pause it.
《彭博本周末》播客。
The Bloomberg This Weekend podcast.
今天就在苹果播客、Spotify 或你收听节目的任何地方订阅吧。
Subscribe today on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen.
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