汤姆·基恩的《最佳单点》：安德鲁·斯利蒙

各位理财顾问请注意，让我们花一分钟聊聊债券。

To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute.

我们见过太多大公司随便抛几个花哨的基金产品就草草了事。

We've seen a lot of big firms throw a couple of flashy funds your way and call it a day.

但先锋集团不同。

But not Vanguard.

先锋债券具有机构级品质。

Vanguard bonds are institutional quality.

我们说的是80多支债券基金全线优质产品，由200人组成的全球团队进行主动管理。

We're talking top grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200 person global team.

所以，如果您希望为客户提供年复一年的稳定收益，请亲自查看我们的记录：vanguard.com/audio。

So, if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio.

网址是vanguard.com/audio。

That's vanguard.com/audio.

所有投资均存在风险。

All investing is subject to risk.

Vanguard营销公司分销商。

Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor.

您可以通过彭博新闻快讯随时获取最新资讯。

You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.

我是艾米·莫里斯。

I'm Amy Morris.

我是凯伦·莫斯科，向您介绍我们全新推出的点播新闻报告，直接推送至您的播客订阅。

And I'm Karen Moscow here to tell you about our new on demand news report delivered right to your podcast feed.

彭博新闻快讯是一档5分钟短音频，为您播报当日要闻。

Bloomberg News Now is a short five minute audio report on the day's top stories.

每日多时段更新最新资讯与数据，助您掌握市场动态。

Episodes are published throughout the day with the latest information and data to keep you informed.

是的。

Yes.

虽然其他新闻机构也有类似产品，但它们通常只是全天重播电台新闻。

There are other products like this from a variety of news organizations, but they usually rerun their radio newscasts throughout the day.

这不是我们的做法。

That's not what we do.

我们制作专为彭博新闻此刻定制的独家节目。

We create customized episodes that can only be heard on Bloomberg News Now.

我们不会让突发新闻等待一小时才发布。

And we don't wait an hour to publish breaking news.

当新闻爆发时，我们会在几分钟内将最新节目推送到您的播客订阅中，确保您始终掌握最新动态。

When news breaks, we'll have an episode up in your podcast feed within minutes, so you're always getting the latest stories and developments.

获取来自彭博全球3000名记者和分析师的第一手报道与深度解读。

Get the reporting and the context from Bloomberg's 3,000 journalists and analysts were all over the world.

立即通过苹果、Spotify或您常用的收听平台获取彭博新闻此刻的最新内容。

Listen to the latest from Bloomberg News now on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.

彭博音频工作室出品，

Bloomberg Audio Studios,

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

最佳创意。

Single best idea.

非常感谢我们的感恩节活动，这对我们在数字领域的成就来说是不可思议的一年，不仅包括这个小片段，还包括Joe Wiesenthal和Tracy Ellaway主持的所有彭博播客节目。

Thank you so much for our Thanksgiving, which is an incredible year for what we're doing in the digital space, not only with this little vignette, but all of Bloomberg podcasts with Joe Wiesenthal and Tracy Ellaway are doing.

快去YouTube观看吧。

Go out to YouTube.

订阅彭博播客。

Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast.

这是我们现场内容的精选集。

It's a compendium of what we're doing in live.

我们尽量每天早上都更新。

We try to do it every morning.

今天我们与安德鲁·斯莱蒙进行了直播。

Today live, we did it with Andrew Slemmon.

他来自芝加哥摩根士丹利，非常出色。

He's wonderful out of Chicago with Morgan Stanley.

撰写了一份精彩的分析报告。

Writes a brilliant note.

通过摩根士丹利获取那份报告。

Get that note through Morgan Stanley.

这是我送给你的感恩节礼物。

And here's my Thanksgiving gift to you.

请牢记这个答案。

Bottle this answer.

安德鲁·斯莱蒙谈市场。

Andrew Slemmon on the markets.

如果我打开彭博终端，查看过去十年从风格角度最有效的策略——价值增长、新股息，根据你们的彭博数据，什么策略最有效？

If I go to my Bloomberg terminal and I look at what has worked from a style standpoint the last ten years, value growth, new dividends, What's worked according to your Bloomberg?

动量因素排名第一，盈利修正排名第二。

It is momentum number one and revisions number two.

排在后面的是股息、质量和价值增长等因素。

Long down the list is things like dividends, quality, value growth.

关键就是动量和盈利修正。

It is momentum and revisions.

而市场的现实是盈利，我。

And the reality of the market is that earnings, I.

E。

E.

修正，目前非常强劲，因为尽管议论纷纷，但实际盈利表现超出了华尔街的预期，特别是自四月份以来，甚至从年初开始就是如此。

Revisions, are very strong right now because the economy, for all the talk, earnings have come in better than what really Wall Street thought, certainly since April, but even since the beginning of the year.

这位普林斯顿绅士的犀利分析。

Slimming physics from the gentleman from Princeton.

让我来解析他这番话为何如此重要。

Let me walk through why what he said is so important.

在基于微积分的牛顿模型中，你就像站在静止的道路上，然后有了速度。

In the Newtonian model of this, which is based around the calculus, and take physics where you're like on the road standing still, and then you have velocity.

你踩下油门踏板，然后加速或踩刹车。

You put your foot on the pedal, and then you press down or pit the brake.

那就是加速和减速。

That's acceleration, deacceleration.

这是二阶导数。

That's a second derivative.

所以市场上存在一个盈利预期，然后有修正，即预期的变化。

So you have an earnings belief out there, and then you have revisions, which is the change of the belief.

他所说的是推动市场的因素，我也想到吉娜·马丁·亚当斯现在在这方面关于利润率的观点。

And what he's saying is what's moving the market, and I think of Gina Martin Adams, now, on margins on this as well.

这里极其重要的是连续多个季度出现的建设性修正。

What's so, so important here is this quarter after quarter after quarter of constructive revisions.

企业盈利预期的二阶导数，即利润预期，表现比良好还要出色。

The second derivative of the earnings belief, the profit belief in corporations, doing better, than good.

再次强调，这是安德鲁·斯利蒙对未来的看法。

Again, Andrew Slimmon here on the view forward.

汤姆，我的观点是股市正遵循典型的行为路径——不幸的是，这个行业唯一的规律就是人们低卖高买，这点你我都很清楚。

My argument, Tom, is the stock market is following a classic behavioral path, which is unfortunately, you know, the the the only consistency of this business, and you know this, Tom, as well as I do, is people sell low and they buy high.

这是我唯一知道的当价格下跌时人们反而想抛售的市场。

It's the only only market I know where when prices go down, people wanna sell.

这简直就是在描述我的投资策略。

Well just described my investment strategy.

确实如此。

Exactly.

其实就是三倍杠杆现金策略，无论你持有什么。

Well, it's triple triple long cash, whatever you have.

但回顾2023年，我们刚经历完25%的跌幅。

But look, in 2023, we had just come off a 25% decline.

那本是买入股票的绝佳时机，但当时出现25%跌幅的原因在于美联储正在加息。

It was a wonderful opportunity to buy stocks, but the reason why we had a 25% decline was the Fed was raising rates.

所以突然间，短期利率看起来很有吸引力。

So suddenly, now short term rates look attractive.

安德鲁·斯莱明（Andrew Slimmon）的观点。

Andrew Slamming there.

只是一个小插曲。

And just a little vignette.

我年轻时曾有幸结识一位绅士。

What a privilege I had in my ute.

多伦多天普全球投资公司的约翰·加尔布雷斯先生曾邀请我去见约翰·坦普尔顿。

A gentleman named John Galbraith up in Toronto with Templeton Global Investors said, please come up and meet John Templeton.

当我还年轻得一周只需刮一次胡子时，约翰·坦普尔顿说过的话，和你们刚才听到的摩根士丹利伟大分析师安德鲁·斯莱明的观点如出一辙。

And John Templeton, when I could shave maybe twice a week, I'm lying once a week, said just what you heard there from the great Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley.

我们怎么做？

What do we do?

我们在底部卖出，然后在顶部买入。

We sell at the bottom, then we buy at the top.

我们在播客平台，苹果和Spotify上都有节目。

We're in a podcast, Apple and Spotify.

我们也在YouTube播客上。

We're in YouTube podcasts.

这是最棒的点子。

It's single best idea.

今天的节目由Vanguard赞助播出。

Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard.

致所有正在收听的理财顾问，让我们花一分钟聊聊债券。

To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute.

在固定收益领域捕捉价值并不容易。

Capturing value in fixed income is not easy.

债券市场规模庞大且不透明，说实话，很多公司随便扔几个花哨的基金产品就完事了。

Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real, lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day.

但Vanguard不一样。

But not Vanguard.

在Vanguard，机构级品质不是一句空话。

At Vanguard, institutional quality isn't a tagline.

这是对您客户的承诺。

It's a commitment to your clients.

我们提供80多种债券基金的顶级产品，由200名全球行业专家、分析师和交易员组成的团队积极管理。

We're talking top grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200 person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders.

这些人日日夜夜与固定收益打交道。

These folks live and breathe fixed income.

因此，如果您希望为客户提供年复一年的稳定回报，请亲自查看vanguard.com/audio上的记录。

So, if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio.

网址是vanguard.com/audio。

That's vanguard.com/audio.

所有投资均存在风险。

All investing is subject to risk.

Vanguard营销公司分销商。

Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor.

我是马特·米勒。

I'm Matt Miller.

我是汉娜·埃利奥特，邀请您加入我们的《彭博热力追踪》播客。

And I'm Hannah Elliott inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Hot Pursuit podcast.

每周，我们都会为您带来关于汽车行业的新闻和深度解析。

Every week, we bring you news and industry insight on everything cars.

马特，我们做的可远不止谈论汽车。

And we do a whole lot more than just talk about cars, Matt.

实际上，我们几乎能试驾所有最新款车型，尤其是那些直接从展厅开出的豪华车和跑车。

We actually get behind the wheel of basically every latest model, especially the luxury ones and the sports cars direct from the showroom floor.

我们能接触到的车型数量确实令人惊叹。

It really is remarkable how many cars we have access to.

虽然有点不好意思，但无论是4万美元的电动车还是价值50万美元的超级跑车，我们都能体验。

I feel a little bit guilty about it, but everything from $40,000 EVs to exotic half million dollar supercars.

我们还会采访塑造汽车行业的内部人士，从顶级CEO、收藏家到富有远见的设计师和赛车冠军。

We also speak with the insiders who shape the automotive industry from the top CEOs and collectors to visionary designers and racing champions.

在YouTube、苹果播客、Spotify或任何你获取播客的平台搜索'Bloomberg Hot Pursuit'。

Search for Bloomberg hot pursuit on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

或许你可以在周末自驾时收听，或者去参加车友聚会时听听。

Maybe you listen while you're on your weekend drive, maybe go into cars and coffee.

听听我们聊聊这周驾驶的车型体验。

Listen to us talk about what we are driving this week.

这里是《Bloomberg Hot Pursuit》节目。

That's Bloomberg Hot Pursuit.

我是纽约的Matt Miller。

I'm Matt Miller in New York.

我是洛杉矶的Hannah Elliott。

And I'm Hannah Elliott in Los Angeles.

立即订阅，在你常用的播客平台收听我们。

Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.

我是Joe Matthew，邀请您收听《权力制衡》播客节目。

I'm Joe Matthew inviting you to join me for the balance of power podcast.

我们每天都会为您带来白宫和国会山最新动态的深度解析，包括彭博社记者的突发新闻报道，以及与立法者和政府官员的独家对话，这些内容您在其他地方都听不到。

Every day, we deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including breaking news from Bloomberg's reporters and in-depth conversations with lawmakers and administration officials that you won't hear anywhere else.

特朗普政府正在推行哪些政策变革，这些变革如何影响华盛顿和华尔街，并驱动您的投资决策？

What are the policy changes the Trump administration is making that affect Washington and Wall Street and drive your investment decisions?

从关税到税收，规则在不断变化，这正是您需要每日收听的原因。

From tariffs to taxes, the rules are constantly changing, which is why you need to listen every day.

我们每个工作日都会进行实时报道，并将最精彩的对话收录进每日播客中。

We do it all live each weekday then bring you the best conversations in the daily podcast.

补上您工作时错过的头条新闻。

Catch up on the headlines you missed while you were at work.

在回家路上收听来自我国首都及全球各地当日最重要的新闻。

Listen on your way home for the top news of the day straight from our nation's capital and around the world.

这就是由我和凯莉·莱恩斯主持的《权力制衡》播客。

That's the balance of power podcast with me, Joe Matthew, and Kaylee Lines.

可在苹果、Spotify及您获取播客的所有平台收听。

Listen on Apple, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.