供给冲击影响你的钱包，投资者与消费者情绪分化，郊区房价高昂

而且我也不用跟彼得·奥尔萨格一起慢跑。

And I didn't have to jog with Peter Orszag.

你就不用跑那五英里了。

No five miles for you.

太好了。

Success.

好的。

Alright.

接下来，高收入者反其道而行之，不一定把401(k)存满。

Coming up, high earners are bucking the trend and not been necessarily maxing out their four zero one k's.

我们来了解一下他们为什么拒绝这条经典理财建议。

We're learn why they're rejecting this classic money advice.

另外，阿纳斯塔西娅·阿莫罗索也会加入我们。

Plus, Anastasia Amoroso joins us as well.

这里是彭博财经。

This is Bloomberg Money.

你正在收听的是彭博财经。

You're listening to Bloomberg Money.

请继续收听，稍后还有更多精彩内容。

Stay with us with more to come after this.

彭博财经是我们个人理财的专属频道，本周引起听众关注的一个话题是，是否要最大化你的401(k)缴款，因为一些高收入者现在开始质疑这一策略。

Bloomberg Money is our destination for personal finance and one of the stories that caught our audience's attention this week is whether to maximize your contributions to four zero one ks's because some high earners are now questioning that strategy.

彭博观察的Foster一直在报道这个故事，现在她加入我们进行讨论。你采访了一位40岁的女士，她决定将缴款比例从20%降到5%，这样她仍然可以获得雇主的全额匹配，但她不再想把那部分额外的钱放进她的401(k)。

Bloomberg Surveillance Foster has been reporting on this story and she joins us now to discuss and you talked to a 40 year old who decided to cut her contribution down to 5% from 20% so she can still capture her full employer match, but she no longer wants to put that other amount into her four zero one ks.

她把这部分钱转投到了其他地方。

She's redirecting it elsewhere.

我觉得，我写关于“最大化缴款者”的故事已经有好几个月了。

It it it's been months, I think, of writing stories about Maxers.

我想现在是时候写一篇关于“反最大化缴款者”的故事了。

I guess it's time that we write a story about anti Maxxers.

我和其中一位储蓄者聊过，她告诉我她仍然在为未来储蓄和投资。

I spoke with one of these savers who told me that she's still saving and investing for her future.

她只是不把钱放进401k里。

She's just not putting it in the four zero one ks.

她在考虑罗斯IRA和券商账户。

She's looking at the Roth IRA brokerages.

她想更早动用资金，并且对自己的投资有更多控制权。

She wants access to the funds earlier and she wants more control over her investments.

如果她把钱放进401k，提前取出来是要受罚的。

And if she were to put it in her four zero one ks, she would be penalized if she took her money out early.

所以这适合那些想努力工作、努力存钱、提前退休的人。

So this is for people who want to work hard, save hard and retire early.

这又是一个让人觉得财务规划得围绕个人目标来调整的故事。

It's it's one of those stories where I think, you know, finance has to kind of fit around your personal goals.

所以如果你是想承担更多风险，或者想比传统401k的规定更早退休，那可能不把401k存满才是合理的。

And so if you're someone who maybe wants to take on a little more risk or maybe retire early before those typical rules with the traditional four zero one ks, that's when it probably makes sense to max out or not to not max out.

但我觉得，现在最大的问题是很多退休规划师对此有点担忧。

But I think, you know, the big question now is a lot of retirement planners are a little bit worried about it.

我挺担心的。

I'm worried about it.

和多年前彼得·奥尔萨格在布鲁金斯学会提出的那个标志性观点相比，现在的情况变了，我觉得我们都活得更长了。

The thing that's changed from Peter Orszag and his landmark worker at Brookings years ago is I believe we're all living longer.

这是不是意味着，一个39岁的人真的能明白，如果是一对夫妻，按精算概率活到90岁是很现实的事？

Is that part of this equation that some 39 year old actually understands that if there's a couple say, the actuarial ability to get to 90 is pretty tangible?

这确实是很多我采访过的退休专家非常担心的一点。

That's actually a big concern for a lot of the retirement experts I spoke with.

你知道，401k之所以能成为积累财富的好工具，不仅仅是因为它设好就忘、自动扣款，还因为人们没法轻易动用这笔钱，所以存退休金也很有效。

You know, it's not just the fact that the four zero one ks was so successful as a wealth building tool because it was a set it and forget it method, but it was also successful for saving for retirement because people were unable to access the money.

就算你一时冲动想花，也花不了。

You know, even if you were tempted to spend it, you couldn't.

现在的问题是，如果这笔钱能更早拿到手，那就有风险了。

And now this this is a concern here if it is something that you have more access to sooner.

那这个39岁的人，她打算把钱转到哪里去？

So this 39 year old, she's redirecting her money to where?

转到健康储蓄账户，转到券商账户，

To a health savings account, to a brokerage account,

券商账户和罗斯个人退休账户。

a brokerage account and a Roth IRA.

实际上，她今年已经存满了罗斯个人退休账户，但明年她不打算再存满，而是把大部分投资资金放到券商账户里，因为她就是那种想提前退休的人。

And actually, she maxed out the Roth IRA this year, but now she plans to not max out that next year and instead fund most of the investments to the brokerage account because she is one of those people who wants to retire.

退休规划里是不是有个假设，认为退休后你的税率会降低？

Is there assumption within retirement that you still that you go to a lower tax bracket?

我聊过的很多人说这纯属虚构。

So many people I've talked to say it's fiction.

你知道，退休了，好像就欢呼，税率低了。

Know, you retire and it's like, yay, lower tax bracket.

不，哎呀，错了。

No, oops.

税务方面的考虑也是其中一部分。

The tax consideration is part of it too.

想想看，即使有了罗斯401k，它也没有真正帮助人们思考这个问题，尤其是如果401k最初的激励是为了享受税收优惠，降低你的应税收入，然后在退休时，希望你的税率更低的时候再缴税。

Think, know, even with the advent of Roth four zero one ks, it's not really kind of helping people think about it, especially if you were the original incentive of the four zero one ks was to take the tax break, lower your taxable income, you know, pay it in retirement when hopefully you're in a lower tax bracket then.

但我觉得，正如我们所见，税率处于历史低位，上升的空间比下降的空间大得多。

But I think as we've seen that tax rates are historically low, there is a lot more room to go up than down.

这是一个

That's a

很好的观点。

really good point.

好的，莎拉，非常感谢你。

Alright, Sarah, thank you so much.

莎拉·福斯特。

Sarah Foster.

她为我们的彭博财经撰稿。

She writes for our Bloomberg Money.

她每周都来吗？

Is she on every week?

我觉得我们确实经常请她来。

I think we do have her on back.

挺好的。

It's good.

那是因为她的报道实在太出色了。

That's because the reporting is so damn good.

莎拉，非常感谢你。

Sarah, thank you so much.

现在加入我们的是阿纳斯塔西娅·阿莫罗索，她是合众集团的首席投资策略师，这对所有错过牛市的朋友来说非常重要。

Joining us now, and this is really important for all of you who've missed the bull market, Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist Partners Group.

她一路走来，鼓励大家鼓起勇气、坚持留在市场，这本身就是一个标志性的贡献。

Her ability along the way to say find courage and stay in the market has been a landmark as well.

你现在还是看涨吗？

Are you still a bull?

我依然看涨。

I'm still a bull.

汤姆，我仍然看涨。

I'm still a bull, Tom.

我也考虑到市场可能会在某个时候下跌。

I do allow for possibility that the market will go down at some point.

当然，我确实考虑到了这一点。

I do allow for that, of course.

但你看，在股市里待着真是一段非凡的旅程，我刚刚刷新了长期数据。

But look, it's been a phenomenal ride to be in the equity markets, and I just sort of refreshed the longer term data set.

你看，过去十五年里，标普指数平均涨幅大约在11%到12%。

And look, over the last fifteen years, the S and P averaged something like 11, 12%.

所以，这确实是积累个人财富的好时机。

So it's been a phenomenal time to accumulate that personal wealth.

这就是货币市场……

That's what the money market...

现在的货币市场收益率。

The money MMR right now.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

这位是阿纳斯塔西娅·阿莫罗索。

This this is Anastasia Amoroso.

这应该会继续。

This should continue.

标准普尔的预期。

Standard and Poor's expected.

巨大的季度。

Ginormous quarter.

下周从摩根大通开始关注这个。

Look for that next week starting with JPMorgan.

标准普尔493点。

Standard and Poor's four ninety three.

其余的公司仍然预期实现18%的增长。

The rest of them still expect to deliver 18% growth.

今天下午埃德·亚德尼提到，增长率大约12%。

Ed Yardeni this afternoon, some 12% growth.

盈利预期一直在上调。

Earnings revisions consistently positive.

阿纳斯塔西娅，关键点来了。

And here's the money, Anastasia, line.

这种情况应该会持续下去。

This should continue.

这是我们的希望和期盼。

That's the hope and prayer.

加油吧。

Come on.

但总有一天会结束的。

At some point, it ends.

是的，如果美联储大幅收紧政策，导致经济放缓，那就会结束。

Well, it ends if the Fed tightens the policy so much that it does slow the economy.

如果我们现在都抱有的科技希望，因为某种原因，泡沫破裂了，那就会结束。

It ends if the technology hope that we now all have, for some reason, that bubble burst.

但汤姆，我看不到这两件事中的任何一件在近期发生。

But I don't see either one of those things on the horizon, Tom.

而且我认为，我之所以继续看涨到年底，是因为我觉得我们之前对市场的很多担忧正在被解决的过程中。

And I think the reason why I certainly continue to be a bull into your end is I do think a lot of the fears that we had for the market are in the process of being resolved.

这些担忧正在被吸收、消化，然后我们就可以继续向前看。

We're in the process of being absorbed, digested, and then we can move on to the next thing.

我说的比如是油价。

And what I'm talking about is, let's say, the price of oil.

是的，我们仍然徘徊在每桶100美元左右，但事实是，中东的很大一部分产量实际上正在通过改道和该地区的重新调整而离开中东。

And, yes, we're still hovering around a $100 a barrel, but the fact of the matter is a big chunk of the Middle East production is actually making its way out of the Middle East because of the rerouting and just reshaping of that region.

这是第一点。

So that's the first point.

第二点是，是的，收益率确实大幅上升，但这是在非常坚实的经济增长的背景下发生的。

The second point is, yes, yields have risen quite significantly, but it's against the backdrop of really solid economic growth.

而且，它们已经涨到了对投资者有吸引力的水平。

And, also, they have risen to the point where it's attractive for investors.

你知道，这对投资者有吸引力，所以你不会看到美国国债拍卖中的终端用户需求退缩。

You know, it's attractive for investors, so you don't see the end user demand step back at the US treasury auctions.

实际上你会看到它增强。

You actually see it strengthen.

所以我认为十年期国债收益率达到5.25%会激发投资者的兴趣，这本身就能限制未来收益率的上升空间。

So I think 5.25 on a ten year will generate investor appetite, which in and by itself can cap the level of yields from here on out.

好的。

Okay.

所以这次债券的大抛售重新让债券变得有吸引力了。

So this great bond sell off has revived the case for bonds.

这对股票估值意味着什么呢？

What does it mean for the valuations of equities?

你看，当然，在

Look, of course, on the

利润率会压低股票的估值，我觉得我们已经在一定程度上看到了这种情况。

margin is going to dent the valuations of equities, and I would say we've actually seen that to some extent.

首先，如果你看今年年初的标普指数，当时是23倍的市盈率。

So first of all, if you looked at the S and P beginning of this year, you were looking at a 23 times multiple.

现在呢，是19倍，我觉得部分原因是我们不得不消化地缘政治的不确定性，还有选举的不确定性。

Today, it's a 19 times multiple, and I think part of the reason is we had to absorb the geopolitical uncertainty and also the race uncertainty.

所以这个估值已经重新调整了。

So that has reset.

我们也看到这种调整在私募市场也发生了。

We've also seen that reset play out in private markets as well.

但如果这是在强劲经济增长的背景下发生的，那么盈利增长，汤姆，就是我之前说的那个，

But if that is happening against the backdrop of strong economic growth, that earnings growth, Tom, that I

那确实会……

That does...

我之前提到的那个盈利增长，正在加速。

That I discussed, that is accelerating.

所以这让公司有了自由和途径去消化那些更高的成本。

So that allows companies the freedom, the route to absorb those higher

这是一场很好的对话，适合在彭博财经节目上讨论。

This is a great conversation for the has.

在彭博财经节目上，我想让你谈谈个人理财。

On Bloomberg Money, I want you to talk about the personal finance.

我看着你，阿纳斯塔西娅，你从东欧来到美国，你来到这里，你在新墨西哥州，你不在纽约市或某个大城市的什么名校，你在新墨西哥州。

I look at you, Anastasia, you come to America from Eastern Europe, and you come over here, you're in New Mexico, you're not in some fancy school in New York City or name the city, you're in New Mexico.

美国有很大一部分人没有参与我们在这里讨论的关于盈利和未来盈利、市盈率以及各种复杂比率的对话。

There's a huge body of America that's not participating in the conversation we're having here about earnings and future earnings, PEs, and fancy ratios.

几小时前公布的消费者信心指数。

Consumer sentiment out hours ago.

非常糟糕。

It's terrible.

我们如何把投资者的繁荣与一个感觉被压垮的美国结合起来？

How do we dovetail our investor prosperity into an America that feels flat on their back?

我不明白这两者怎么协调。

I don't understand how those two meet.

我的意思是，现在这两者之间的差距太大了。

I I mean, it's such a huge disconnect right now.

你看，不管往哪儿看，消费者确实对自己的个人财务状况感到沮丧，我能理解为什么。

And look, you know, everywhere you look, consumers do feel depressed about their personal finances, and I can understand why.

因为，不管你去哪儿，平均售价都在上涨，而我这一周、这一年旅行下来，慢慢意识到我们正处于一个消费者需求其实相当强劲的环境里。

Because, you know, everywhere you go, the average selling prices are moving higher, and what I've sort of realized just traveling, you know, this week and just this year is that we're in an environment where consumer demand is actually quite strong.

我们作为消费者感觉像是在勉强维持收支平衡，但整体上还算过得去。

We feel like we're breaking even as consumers, but we're still doing okay.

所以需求端是没问题的。

So the demand side of the equation is fine.

但同时也发生了另一个情况，就是我们产能受限，不管是旅游业、休闲酒店业，还是工业。

But what's happened also is that we are capacity constrained, whether it's the travel industry, whether it's the leisure hospitality, whether it's the industrials industry.

所以结果就是，企业有了定价权。

So as a result, corporations have pricing power.

他们正在利用这种定价权，这就是为什么我们看到创纪录的盈利。

They're using that pricing power, which is why we're seeing those record earnings.

所以，汤姆，说到底，现在对消费者来说并不是一个特别好的时期。

So the bottom line, Tom, it is not a phenomenal time to be a consumer.

对消费者来说，现在算是还行，甚至可能有点糟糕，但对投资者来说，实际上是一个非常棒的时期，非常稳健的时期。

It's sort of an okay or maybe a bad time to be a consumer, but it's actually phenomenal time, a very solid time to be an investor.

因为如果你能投资那些正在解决产能瓶颈问题的公司，对吧。

Because if you can invest in the companies that are solving those capacity bottlenecks Right.

而且他们同时还在创造创纪录的盈利，我认为这是拉平竞争环境、让那些消费者变成投资者的方法。

And they're delivering record earnings, in the meantime, that's the way to, I think, even out the playing field and to have those consumers become investors.

阿纳斯塔西娅，在彭博财经节目中，我们喜欢问嘉宾，考虑到现在发生的一切，你是如何投资的，你又是如何改变你的投资策略的。

Anastasia, on Bloomberg Money, we like to ask our guests how you are investing, how you've changed your approach to investing given everything that's happening right now.

关于你个人对投资的思考方式，有什么会让人们感到惊讶的吗？

What would surprise people about the way that you think about investing personally?

嗯，我不确定这算不算令人惊讶，但我确实投资于各种不同的资产类别。

Well, I don't know if that's surprising necessarily, but but I do invest across all the various asset classes.

你知道，当然，你知道，投资组合的核心支柱仍然必须是标普500指数、纳斯达克指数，还有AI交易，这些也绝对应该成为私人资产的一部分，对吧？

You know, of course, you know, the core pillar of the portfolio still has to be that S and P exposure, the Nasdaq exposure, the AI trade that absolutely has to be a part of private assets too?

哦，当然。

Oh, of course.

私人资产。

Private assets.

但我觉得……

But I think...

我觉得这不会让人意外，因为我在私人市场公司工作，但我确实把投资范围从公开市场扩展到私人市场，我认为这是一个连续体。

I don't think that would be surprising given that I do work for a private markets company, but I do extend the universe from public to private, and I think of it as a continuum.

所以如果你要投资股票，就投公开股票，但也要投私人股票。

So if you're going to invest in equities, make it public equities, but also make it private.

如果你要投资固定收益，看，债券很好，高等级债券很好，你知道，国债也越来越好，但与此同时，我非常被私人信贷吸引，事实是你可以获得那种收益。

If you're going to invest in fixed income, look, bonds are great, high grade is great, you know, treasuries are becoming greater, but at the same time, I'm quite, you know, attracted to private credit, and the fact is that you have that yield that you can earn

在那里。

there.

我想提一下这张图表。

I want to bring up this chart.

这是我的比尔·格罗斯图表。

It is my Bill Gross chart.

很多很多年前，我第一次和威廉·格罗斯一起使用它。

I used it first with William Gross many, many years ago.

这是十年期收益率，在座的各位除了我之外都还没出生呢。

It is a ten year yield back before anybody in this room besides me was born.

这是从沃尔克时代以来的大缓和，你可以看到这里通胀和收益率的飙升，真是非同寻常。

It's the great moderation from the Volker years down, and you see the surge up here in inflation and yield that's been extraordinary.

对于那些沉迷于过去五六七年里价格上涨和低收益率的人，你想说什么？

What do you say to the crew addicted to price up and the low yields that we had for five sixty seven years?

嗯，那不是未来。

Well, that's not the future.

这就是我要说的。

That's what I would say to that.

而且你看，低收益率和被打压的期限溢价的时代已经过去了。

And look, bygone is the era of those lower yields and the term premium that has been suppressed.

你知道，如果你分析十年期国债收益率上涨的原因，一部分跟通胀粘性有关。

You know, you dissect the move higher in the ten year treasury yield, some of it has to do with sticky inflation.

一部分

Some of

跟强劲的增长有关，这很好，还有一部分是因为债券市场对预算赤字轨迹和全球增长的不确定性增加了。

it has to do with robust growth, which is great, and some of it has to do with the fact that the bond market has more uncertainty about the trajectory of the budget deficit and just growth globally.

所以我觉得我们得接受这个事实，汤姆，期限溢价会回归历史常态，这意味着十年期国债收益率不会停留在2%。

So I think we have to get used to the fact, Tom, that the term premium is going to revert to the historical norms, and that means that the ten year treasury is not going to be at 2%.

它很可能在5%左右徘徊。

It is likely to hover around 5%.

这太棒了。

This has been wonderful.

阿纳斯塔西娅·阿莫罗索，谢谢你，也恭喜你一路以来对牛市判断的精准。

Anastasia Amoroso, thank you, and congratulations on the quality of her bull market calls along the way.

她一直很感兴趣。

She's been interested.

是的，我有点担心。

Yeah, I'm afraid.

我有点担心。

I'm afraid.

不，坚持住

No, hold

坚持住。

tight.

坚持住。

Hold tight.

接下来的财报和收入都会有的。

Next earnings revenues will be there.

盈利也会有的。

Earnings will be there.

非常感谢你。

Thank you so much.

非常感谢

Thanks so much

今天能来。

for coming in today.

我觉得这会非常有意思。

I this is going to be fascinating.

斯科特，我很喜欢你今天要讲的内容，

I love what you're going to talk about here, Scott,

因为接下来要讲的是离开纽约市搬到郊区，比如新泽西、康涅狄格州，这种趋势。

Because coming up this discount of leaving New York City for the suburbs like New Jersey, Connecticut.

嗯，现在已经不是以前那样了。

Well, it's not what it used to be.

我们对此有详细报道，因为如果你搬到新泽西，你可能会对现在的花费感到惊讶，尤其是送孩子去参加体育活动和夏令营的时候。

We've got the details on that because you might be surprised if you decamped for New Jersey what you're paying for now, especially when you're sending kids to sports and summer camps and

等等这些。

all of that.

这里是彭博财经。

This is Bloomberg Money.

你正在收听的是彭博财经。

You're listening to Bloomberg Money.

请继续收听，稍后还有更多内容。

Stay with us with more to come after this.

彭博财经是你个人理财的新去处。

Bloomberg Money is your new destination for personal finance.

这是一个跨平台的节目，不仅限于电视屏幕，还包括我们在 bloomberg.com/money 的新数字平台。

It's a cross platform effort that extends beyond your television screen, including our new digital hub at bloomberg.com/money.

汤姆，这周我们看到了关于新泽西对纽约和费城的折扣已经消失的报道，现在郊区的居住成本开始超过这些城市。

And Tom, this week we saw the story about how the New Jersey discount to New York and Philadelphia, it's gone with the cost of living in the suburbs now starting to outpace that.

我甚至可以说，全国范围内都是这样。

I would even say nationwide.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

保利娜·卡恰罗报道了这个故事，现在她加入了我们。

Paulina Cacciaro reported on the story, and she joins us now.

保利娜，新泽西的情况怎么样？那里的成本上涨速度甚至比纽约市还快得多。

And, Paulina, what's happening in New Jersey where costs are rising so much faster than even New York City?

我觉得，从2022年开始……

So I think, like, from 2022...

自2021年以来，疫情期间，我们看到住房成本上涨了。

Since 2021, during the pandemic, we saw housing costs increase.

人们突然可以在任何地方工作。

People could suddenly work from anywhere.

他们想搬到郊区，在新冠疫情封锁期间拥有更多空间，我们看到房价不断上涨。

They wanted to move to the suburbs, have a little bit more space under COVID nineteen lockdowns, and we saw housing prices just expand.

然后，显然，所有人都回来了。

Then, obviously, everyone came back.

老板们把员工叫回办公室，大家就开始沿着哈德逊河往近处搬，这样通勤回城里方便。

Bosses were calling workers back to the office, and everyone started moving, you know, closer along the Hudson River so they could commute back into the city.

而且，从那以后，整体通货膨胀也上来了。

And, you know, since then, overall inflation has risen.

纽约市的生活成本高了很多，那些原本可能不会搬到郊区的人，现在大部分都搬了，而且现在在新泽西养孩子的成本，主要是被托儿费用推高的。

New York City has gotten a lot more expensive, and people that might not have moved to the suburbs started to, in large part, and now, childcare costs are what's driving up, the cost of raising a family in New Jersey.

以前郊区的房子便宜，花同样的钱能买到更多。

It used to be housing was cheaper in the suburbs, and you got more bang for your buck there.

但现在这个差距也在慢慢缩小。

But now that's starting to equalize a little bit too.

特别是现在的利率水平，在新泽西，你很可能找到租金和房贷差不多的房子。

Especially with interest rates where they're at, if you could probably find a rental that's comparable to the cost of your mortgage in New Jersey.

而且你可能会得到更大的空间，但省下的钱可能又花在回城通勤上了，对吧。

And you might be getting more space, but the cost you might be saving, you're spending on commuting back into the city Right.

还有更高的托儿费用。

And in the higher cost of childcare as well.

这张图看起来挺复杂的，但你只需要知道，

This chart, which looks complicated, but all you

新泽西郊区的房价增长速度比其他地方快得多。

need to know is that the New Jersey suburbs are seeing much faster growth in prices than other places.

我的意思是，大部分增长都集中在新泽西的蒙茅斯县、哈德逊县和帕塞伊克县。

I mean, most of that is New Jersey Monmouth County, Hudson County, Passaic County.

你不会去那些地方的。

You don't go there.

我看不到。

I can't see it.

你看不到。

You can't see it.

但你一直是个坚定的曼哈顿派。

But you you've been a Manhattan diehard this whole time.

我一直是曼哈顿的忠实粉丝，但我有这个条件。

I've been a Manhattan diehard the whole time, but I have the luxury.

我觉得这在全国范围内都引发了巨大的情绪波动。

I I I think this is hugely emotional nationwide.

接下来我想聊聊你在南加州大学的时光。

I'm gonna go to your time at the University of South Southern California.

核心问题是，洛杉矶有什么不同吗？

And the basic idea of is LA any different?

我觉得没什么不同。

I don't think so.

我认为这是全国性的现象。

I think this is nationwide.

我觉得我们确实在全国范围内看到了这种情况。

I think we're definitely seeing it on a national level.

我觉得家庭通常都会搬到远郊或郊区，以获得更多空间并节省一些开支。

I think families always kind of move to the exurbs or the suburbs to get more space and save a little bit.

但因为这样做的人太多了，所以那里不再便宜了。

But because there's so many people doing that, it's not cheaper anymore.

便宜的选择是公立学校。

The bargain was public schools.

你是说，你报道说公立学校的这个便宜优势已经不存在了？

Are you saying that you're reporting that the public school bargain is broken?

我不确定是不是公立学校的优势没了，但你知道，在像纽约这样的大城市，我们正在扩大普及托儿服务，这确实能帮助减轻早期托儿费用的负担。

I don't know if it's the public school bargain, but you know, in major cities like New York City, we are expanding our universal childcare program that really helps with those early costs of childcare.

实际上，纽约市的托儿费用比新泽西便宜大约5000美元。

Actually, childcare in New NYC is about like $5,000 cheaper than it is in New Jersey.

这个我完全不了解。

This is something I'm blind on.

我对当今个人理财中托儿费用的巨大挑战一无所知。

I am blind to the immense challenge today in personal finance of child care.

已经

It's been

很久了。

a long time.

那时候是有优惠的。

Had a gift.

便宜多了。

It was way cheaper.

但当时我做的时候，

But when when I was doing it,

是啊，那已经是很久很久以前的事了。

well, it's been a long, long time.

而且别忘了，移民政策的收紧也让托儿的选择少了很多，大幅减少了。

And not to mention the immigration crackdown means that the options for childcare have gone down, have slimmed down considerably, too.

对，这影响可大了。

Yeah, it's a huge thing.

除了这个，你还在忙些什么？

What else are you working on besides?

我是说，你这里讲的主题挺大的。

Mean, this is a huge theme you've got going here.

下一个故事是什么？

What's the next story?

提前把它报道出来。

Get out in front of it.

下一个故事？

The next story?

我觉得就是想想，如果人们想养家糊口，他们会去哪里？

I mean, I think it's just thinking about, like, where do people go if they wanna raise a family?

看起来好像没有哪里能躲得掉。

It seems like there's not really anywhere to hide.

没有。

There's no.

我不是想打断你，因为我们得继续，但这很关键，因为这周我已经看到两三篇、四篇文章了，对。

And and I don't mean to interrupt because we gotta move on, but this is critical because I've seen two, three, four articles this week Uh-huh.

关于出生率和儿童数量惊人下降的报道。

On the staggering decline in birth rate in children.

我是说，这……

I mean, it's...

我们正在变得像意大利一样。

We're becoming like Italy.

人们养宠物而不是生孩子。

People have pets rather than kids.

宠物更便宜。

Pets are cheaper.

我们对此一笑置之。

We make light of that.

这确实是个笑话。

It's a joke.

但从社会角度来看，这可不是闹着玩的。

But come on from a societal standpoint.

有意思的是，我采访过的父母中，很多人原本想要一两个孩子，但因为经济原因，他们直到年纪大了才敢要孩子，然后他们又得拼命为孩子打拼。

It's interesting because, from the parents that I talked to, a lot of, you know, people wanted to have, like, one or two kids, but because they're not able to afford having kids until later in their life, and then they're just trying to get their kids

结果就全被推迟了。

It gets all pushed out.

就被推迟了。

It gets pushed out.

然后等你准备好了，

And then by the time you're ready to

他们的人生第二篇章就开始了。

have their second story of my life.

音乐。

Music.

我们继续吧。

Let's move on.

好的。

Alright.

我们继续吧。

Let's move on.

我们之前聊过住在郊区的事。

We talked about living in the suburbs.

住在郊区就意味着要当体育家长。

To live in the suburbs is to be a sports parent.

而在体育家长当中，冰球家长确实是个出了名的独特群体。

And among sports parents, yes, hockey parents are legendarily a unique breed.

你可以想象一下，每周六早上六点的比赛，来回搬运装备，开车去马萨诸塞州参加周末锦标赛，结果发现手套忘在家里了。

You could talk it up to 6AM games every Saturday, hauling the equipment back and forth from the rink, driving to weekend tournaments in Massachusetts, only to realize that you left the gloves at home.

所以这周我在读的书是里奇·科恩写的《小联盟：一个冰球家长的忏悔录》。

So my book of the week that I'm reading is Pee Wee's Confessions of a Hockey Parent by Rich Cohen.

这是他的回忆录，记录了康涅狄格州青少年竞技冰球那漫长的赛季，从九月一直持续到三月。

It's it's his memoir that follows, the interminable season of competitive youth hockey in Connecticut, which starts in September, goes through March.

然后还有选拔赛，四月份还得另外交钱参加。

Then you've got tryouts, which you have to pay separately for in April.

里奇·科恩讲述了他如何通过孩子在冰场上的表现来实现自己的梦想。

Rich Cohen recounts how he lived vicariously through his kids on ice performance.

他每次单刀突破都兴奋不已，每次被判罚都感到屈辱。

He rode the high of every breakaway, suffered the indignity of every penalty.

我现在就想做这件事。

I wanna do this right now.

就在刚才，彭博新闻社报道了里奇·科恩，我们很幸运，因为他写了一本关于芝加哥熊队的权威著作。

Just in the last hour, Bloomberg News has reported Rich Cohen, we are fortunate because he wrote one of the definitive books on the Chicago bears.

是的。

Yes.

他确实写了。

He did.

我们失去了一位巨人。

And we've lost a giant here.

迈克·迪特卡，我相信他86岁了，我手头没有确切数字，但他为整整一代人定义了什么叫强硬。

Mike Ditka, I believe at 86 years old, I don't have that in front of me, but he formed what tough was for an entire generation.

刚才有人说他看起来……

Someone was just remarking that he looked...

他看起来总是很生气，但我觉得那只是他的风格。

He always looked angry, but I think that's just kind of his persona.

他是

He was

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

你知道，我对我的工作是很认真的。

You know, I'm serious about what I do.

嗯，你知道，我们只是在彭博财经节目里顺便聊聊这个。

Well, you know, we just do this as a side on Bloomberg Money.

很多人受到迈克·迪特卡的影响，而且是好的、积极的影响。

So many people affected by Mike Ditka in a good and wonderful way.

当然，你知道，他在《周六夜现场》里被纪念为“钻石”。

And, of course, you know, memorialized in SNL as De Beers.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

你知道，我今天这本书，如果我们能聊聊这个，关于郊区的，讲的是一个早已消失的郊区。

You know, my book here today, if we can jump onto this, on the suburbs as well, is a suburb that is long and gone.

它讲的是上午十点喝一杯苦艾酒，没有人像约翰·契弗那样写过。

It was about a glass of vermouth at 10AM and no one wrote about it like John Cheever.

对年轻人来说，这是1954年，两辈子以前的事了，没有人写过那种焦虑。

For those younger, this is 1954, two lifetimes ago, and no one wrote about the angst.

如果你喜欢《广告狂人》，那种《广告狂人》的精神，是的。

If you loved madmen, the ethos of madmen Yes.

百分之百来自约翰·契弗的杰出作品。

Came a 100% from the magnificent work of John Chee.

抑郁的人。

Depressed people.

美丽的抑郁的人，住在郊区的家里。

Beautiful depressed people living in their homes in the suburbs.

嗯，你这是在说我。

Well, you're describing me.

这里要小心。

Be careful here.

答案是，那种紧张感确实存在，也许那是抑郁，但主要还是二战后在1956年国际地球物理年期间的挣扎。

The answer is there was an element of that tension, and maybe it was depression, but it was mostly the post World War two struggle in the IGY 1956.

我查了一下，约翰·契弗住在哈德逊河畔的斯卡伯勒，那是在布里亚克利夫庄园和奥西宁之间，而奥西宁正是虚构的贝蒂和唐·德雷珀的家。对。

Looking this up, and John Sheaver lived in Scarborough On Hudson, which is between Briarcliffe Manor and Austining, and Austining was the home of the fictional Betty and Don Creeper Yeah.

在《广告狂人》里。

In Mad Men.

而且有一次，他租了一栋房子，之前是理查德·耶茨住的，他当然写了《革命之路》，那本书本身就是关于吞噬灵魂的郊区的大话题，你知道的。

And at one point, he rented a house that was previously occupied by Richard Yates, who, of course, wrote Revolutionary Road, which itself was a big, you know, thing about soul sucking suburbs that

这又回到了彭博金钱和个人理财的话题，这真的很神奇。

got And kind what's magical about this is it falls right back to Bloomberg Money and personal finance.

我们现在觉得，而且我也同意，那时候要当个普通人或者稍微好一点的人，似乎更容易。

We perceive now, and I would go with this, it just was easier than to be average or be above average.

现在有了预算和账单

Now with the budgets and the bills

对，真的很难。

Yeah, it's crazy hard.

这和约翰·希弗那时候的情况大不相同了。

It's way different than the time at John Jeever.

竞争性已经完全消失了。

The competitiveness have just has gone out the window.

好了，宝琳娜，非常感谢你加入我们。

Alright, Paulina, thank you so for joining us.

宝琳娜·卡切罗，彭博金钱栏目的记者。

Paulina Cachero, Bloomberg Money reporter.

想获取彭博最新的评论和推荐，请订阅《On Books》新闻简报。

And for the latest reviews and recommendations from Bloomberg, subscribe to the On Books newsletter.

彭博金钱。

Bloomberg Money.

我的意思是，就这么简单。

I mean, it's as simple as this.

我有一部新iPhone。

I have a new iPhone.

挺无聊的。

It's boring.

它的手机壳也很普通。

It's got a boring case.

兰德尔可帅了。

Randall is rocking.

那个……

The...

那就像杰伦·布伦森的风格。

That's like a Jalen Brunson look.

我很喜欢。

I love it.

就是说，真的很酷。

I mean, it's just rocking

就是去年的那款手机，不过还是谢谢夸奖我的手机壳。

the the phone from last year, but I I appreciate the compliment on my case.

兰德尔总是能给我们带来惊喜。

Randall always comes in and surprises us.

我们想跟你聊聊杰伦·布伦森和尼克斯队。

We wanna talk to you about, Jalen Brunson and the Knicks.

但在聊这个之前，先说说腰旗橄榄球，因为大卫·古拉提到他13岁的女儿在打腰旗橄榄球，而且我们看到这项运动发展很快，NFL也在大力推动。

But before we get to that flag football because David Gura was saying his 13 year old daughter plays flag football, and that is something that we've seen a lot of, this growth in flag football that the NFL is very much behind.

NFL已经投入了1.92亿美元，联合众多合作伙伴，目标是创建一个男子……

The the NFL has invested a $192,000,000 alongside a multitude of partners with their creation with the with the goal of creating a men...

一个职业男女腰旗橄榄球联赛。

A pro men and women's flag football league.

其中很多资金也投入到了基层。

And a lot of that has gone to the grassroots level as well.

所以难怪我觉得一些年轻女性会选择腰旗橄榄球，而不是足球、垒球甚至排球，因为入门门槛低得多。

And so it's no surprise that I think some younger women are choosing flag football over a sport like soccer or softball or even volleyball because the gateway to entry is a lot lower.

而且它并不便宜。

And it It's doesn't cheaper.

它也更便宜。

It's cheaper too.

我的意思是，想想看。

I mean, think about it.

在常规橄榄球中，你需要护具、头盔，什么都需要。

In regular football, you need the pads, you need the helmet, you need everything.

在腰旗橄榄球中，你需要旗子，可能还需要手套

In flag football, you need flags, you need maybe gloves

和钉鞋。

and cleats.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

当然，你还需要左手拿一杯三块钱的啤酒。

You need a glass, of course, three two beer in your left hand.

不是你的活儿。

Not your play.

至少我们那时候是这么干的。

At least that's what it was when we were doing it.

我觉得这挺有意思的。

I mean, it's it's interesting.

大家对腰旗橄榄球的看法已经变了。

The the perception of flag football has changed.

我打球那会儿，我会说，哦，我们不玩腰旗。

When I was playing, I'd be like, oh, we're not playing flag.

那是给弱一点的人玩的，我会这么说。

It's it's for it's for lesser men, I'd say.

但现在我觉得NFL开始重视它了，因为你想，其他联赛像NWSL、WNBA，这些运动都在蓬勃发展。

But now I think the NFL is leaning into it because if you think about the other leagues that exist, the NWSL, the WNBA, those sports are booming.

估值也在不断上升。

The valuations are growing.

所以我们要看看的是，NFL能不能建立起一个基础设施，不一定非得是他们自己的联赛。

And so what we're gonna find out is can the NFL build an infrastructure, not necessarily with their own league

而是在基层，比如高中，最后到大学，让这个变成一个蓬勃发展的生意。

But at the grassroots level, high school, and eventually college for this to be a booming business.

好的。

Okay.

我们来聊聊NBA和杰伦·布伦森吧。

Let's talk about the NBA and Jalen Brunson.

基恩太太管他叫我的杰伦。

Missus Keene calls him my Jalen.

不是吧。

No.

大家对新赛季的第一场比赛都很兴奋，尼克斯要对阵76人，汤姆一直在查票价。

People are getting excited about the first game of the season, where the Knicks will play the 76ers, and Tom's been scanning the prices.

靠近场边的座位要32000美元。

32,000 down close.

什么？

What?

两张票。

Two tickets.

你说三万二？

You said 32,000?

三万二，靠近底线。

32,000 down close.

三万三。

33,000.

76人队或者

76 or

我一点也不惊讶。

It doesn't surprise me.

这简直是天堂。

This is nirvana.

这个开场接下来是76...

This opening next 76...

我的意思是，现在体育界就是讲究这种体验。

I mean, it's this experience thing in sports now.

戴尔·布伦森对阵勒布朗·詹姆斯。

Dale Brunson versus LeBron James.

还有其他人。

And everyone else.

但这并不让我意外。

But it doesn't surprise me.

你看。

Look.

几周前，季票持有者那边闹了点风波，很多人说这些票价太高了。

There there was some drama behind the tickets in in a couple weeks ago with season ticket holders, and a lot of people saying, like, these prices are too high.

尼克斯重新调整了流程。

The Knicks redid the process.

他们是……

They are...

我的意思是，三万二可不是小数目，所以你可能得再往上加点。

I mean, 32,000 is a lot of money, so you might need to go a little higher.

但总的来说，我们说的可是麦迪逊广场花园，而且是世界冠军尼克斯队。

But generally speaking, this is Madison Square Garden we're talking about, and this is a world champion Knicks.

詹姆斯·多兰可不会给你、我或者斯卡任何折扣，在这方面一点都不会。

James Dolan is not gonna give you, myself, or Scar any sort of discount in that experience.

我还有八个问题要问。

I got eight other questions.

我们可以跟他聊整整

We could go with him for a whole

一个小时。

another hour.

我很庆幸去年在尼克斯夺冠之前去看了比赛，那时候我还能买得起票。

I'm just grateful that I went to see the Knicks last year before they won, and I could actually buy the tickets back then.

没错。

Exactly.

他们是不是被自己的成功分心了？

Are they distracted with their success?

如果你在做《周六夜现场》之类的节目，还有其他的事情……

If you're doing SNL and all the rest of

其实我觉得球员们没有分心，但我确实认为，如果詹姆斯·多兰想让每个人都接受杰伦·布伦森那样的降薪，却不给一些球员应得的报酬，那最终会导致球队自我毁灭。

this I actually don't think the players are, but I do think that James Dolan not paying some of these players is going to inevitably self destruct the team if he's trying to make everyone take the Jalen Brunson pay cut.

哦。

Oh.

我觉得那可能会……

I think that could

今年的关注度。

attention for this year.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

我是说，尼克斯今天刚发声明说暂停合同谈判了。

I mean, the Knicks just put out a statement today that said they're calling off contract negotiations.

十秒。

Ten seconds.

克利夫兰还是白袜队？

Cleveland or White Sox?

哦，我选白袜队，因为

Oh, I'll go White Sox because

我有

I got

一个附带条件，好吧。

a spot side of Okay.

我不看了，因为洋基队出局了。

I stopped watching because the Yankees are out.

兰德尔·威廉姆斯，非常感谢你。

Randall Williams, thank you so much.

我们的资深体育商业记者。

Our senior business of sports reporter.

本周的《彭博财经》就到这里。

That does it for Bloomberg Money this week.

汤姆和我一起主持。

Come Tom and me.

祝大家周末愉快。

Have a great weekend.

周末。

Weekend.

这里是《彭博财经》播客，带您深入了解影响您财务生活的各种力量。

This is the Bloomberg Money podcast bringing you a smart look at the forces shaping your financial life.

我是汤姆·基恩，和斯卡利特·傅一起。

I'm Tom Keene with Scarlet Fu.

您可以在每周五华尔街时间中午12点，通过彭博电视观看我们的直播节目。

You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV every Friday at noon Wall Street time.

在Apple、Spotify或任何你收听的地方订阅播客，而且它始终在彭博终端和彭博商业应用上可用。

Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen, and is always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.