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如果你投资、经营企业或分配资金，单方面的观点是不够的。
If you invest, lead a business, or allocate capital, one-sided views aren't enough.
加入我和巴克莱全球研究主管布拉德·罗戈夫，一起收听《翻转面》播客。
Join me, Brad Rogoff, the global head of research at Barclays, on the flip side podcast.
每个月，我都会与全球团队中的一位专家分析师正面交锋，就最重要的经济和市场问题进行辩论。
Each month, I go head to head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most.
从通胀和人工智能到股票和信贷趋势，每场辩论都能帮你看到头条新闻可能遗漏的内容。
From inflation and AI to equity and credit trends, each debate helps you see what headlines might miss.
无论你在哪里收听播客，都能找到《翻转面》。
Find the flip side wherever you get your podcasts.
获取关于推动科技行业迈向新前沿的人物和公司的重要新闻。
Get essential news on the people and companies pushing the tech sector to new frontiers.
你好。
Hi.
我是埃德·拉德洛。
I'm Ed Ludlow.
欢迎收听《彭博科技》，这是一档每日更新的播客，专注于科技、创新和商业的未来。
Join me for Bloomberg Tech, a daily podcast focused exclusively on technology, innovation, and the future of business.
每个工作日，我们都会为你带来硅谷顶级公司的最新见解，以及科技界最重要决策者的访谈。
Every weekday, we bring you the latest insights on Silicon Valley's top companies and conversations with tech's biggest decision makers.
在通勤回家的路上收听《彭博科技》，让你始终走在新闻前沿。
Listen to Bloomberg Tech on your commute home and stay ahead of the news cycle.
今天就在Apple、Spotify或任何你常用的播客平台订阅吧。
Subscribe today on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.
彭博音频工作室。
Bloomberg Audio Studios.
播客。
Podcasts.
电台。
Radio.
新闻。
News.
这里是彭博观察播客。
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日早上7点（东部时间）可以通过苹果CarPlay或安卓Auto上的彭博商业应用收听我们的直播。
Catch us live weekdays at 7AM eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
无论你在哪里收听播客，都可以点播，或者也可以在YouTube上观看我们的直播。
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
所以她升职了，这意味着她可以保留她的飞行常客里程，她是贝莱德的全球首席投资策略师。
So she got a promotion, which means she gets to keep her frequent flyer miles, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock.
非常高兴Gargi Chaudhuri能加入我们。
Thrilled that Gargi Chaudhuri could could join us here.
那么，当他们给你一个新头衔时，他们是怎么做的？
So when they gave you a new title, what do they do?
他们会请你吃顿饭，还是给你多一杯星巴克咖啡？
Do they, like, take out the dinner or, you know, get an extra get a guest get an extra Starbucks coffee?
早上好，朋友们。
Good morning, friends.
这
It's
很高兴来到这里。
great to be here.
嗯，当你升职的时候，他们会告诉你
Well, when you get a promotion, they tell you
你需要去几个
that you have travel to a few
不同的地方。
different places.
而且你还要同时做你的旧工作和新工作。
And you get to do your old job and your new job.
所以
So
那真是太好了。
that's wonderful.
你在旅行中是怎么跟美国以外的股票投资者讲美国例外论和美国AI股票市场的？
What are you telling in your travels, what are you telling equity investors away from America about American exceptionalism and about the American AI equity market?
我刚刚在亚洲待了几个星期。
So I was just in Asia for a couple of weeks.
那真是太棒了。
It was fantastic.
关于如何分散AI集中风险的问题被问了很多次。
And this question about how should I diversify away from the concentration of AI came up a lot.
我们告诉投资者，AI仍然是我们最看好的领域，不管是在美国、韩国还是台湾，这都是我们最坚定的信念。
And we are telling investors that AI remains our strongest conviction, whether you do that in The US, whether you do that in Korea, whether you do that in Taiwan, that remains our strongest conviction.
但是，鉴于市场的集中度越来越高，你确实需要考虑市场的其他部分。
But more and more, given the concentration in the markets, you do need to be thinking about parts of the market.
我们称之为“AI之外的交易”，在我们最新的秋季投资指引中，我们提到，看看像医疗保健这样的市场板块，历史上当半导体抛售时，这些板块表现更好。
We call it the beyond AI trade and we talk about this in our latest fall investment directions where we talk about, hey, look at parts of the market like healthcare, which historically when you've had the semiconductor sell off has held in better.
再看看像股息这样的板块，如果你关注近期现金流，显然支付股息在7月的抛售中为AI交易提供了更好的对冲。
Look at parts of the market like dividends, where again, if you're focusing on near term cash flows, obviously paying dividends that has especially in the July sell off been a better hedge for the AI trade.
所以美国以外的投资者喜欢AI交易，但他们想要分散投资的机会，他们正在寻找在广泛市场中以及像印度和日本这样的地方进行分散投资的点子，这些地方是市场中非AI动向的驱动力之一。
So investors outside of The US like the AI trade, but they want opportunities to diversify away and they're looking for ideas to do that both in broad markets, but also looking at places like India and Japan as some of the drivers of the non AI move in the markets.
顺便说一句，我很喜欢你们的投资演示文稿。
By the way, love your investment deck.
它非常用户友好。
It's so user friendly.
我喜欢贝莱德使用的格式。
I love the format that BlackRock uses.
如果我还做这行的话，我会偷学过来的。
I would steal it if I were still into
演示文稿。
the deck.
演示文稿是指PowerPoint吗？
Is a deck a PowerPoint?
现在都叫演示文稿了。
It's called deck now to
被用起来。
be used.
我是说，我职业生涯里做过上千个这样的演示文稿，我很喜欢这个格式。
I mean, having built a thousand of these over my career, I like this format here.
你说在美国以外，你更偏好新兴市场。
You say outside The US, you prefer emerging markets.
跟我们聊聊这个吧。
Talk to us about that.
对你来说，什么是新兴市场？你为什么喜欢它们？
What is an emerging market for you and why do you like them?
你知道，作为来自新兴市场的人，当我大约二十五年前开始进入这个市场时，对新兴市场的关注点很大程度上是围绕美元走势的。
You know, as being someone from the emerging markets, when I started in the market, you know, call it twenty five years ago, a huge amount of focus on EM was around, what's the dollar doing?
还有国内资产负债表的发展轨迹等等。
What is the domestic trajectory of balance sheets, etc.
而现在，今天，新的新兴市场，当你看看像IEMG这样的指数构成时——那是我们的iShares新兴市场ETF——它已经非常偏向AI相关的股票了。
Right now, today, the new emerging market, when you look at the composition of something like IEMG, which is our iShares EMTicker, it's very pivoted towards it's very much pivoted towards the AI name.
真的吗？
So Really?
其中最大的三个组成部分是中国、韩国和台湾。
The three biggest components of that are China, Korea, and Taiwan.
好的。
Okay.
你在那里得到的是大量的盈利增长和大量的AI。
And what you're getting there is a lot of earnings growth and a huge amount of AI.
所以，因为我们坚信AI主题。
So we are because we're convicted on the AI theme.
我们肯定在告诉投资者。
We're definitely telling investors.
新兴市场是另一种方式。
EM is another way.
这是一个新的新兴市场。
It's a new EM.
这已经不是过去的新兴市场了。
It's not the old EM.
它将给你带来44%的盈利增长，哇。
It is going to give you earnings growth of 44% that Wow.
这在过去是没有的。
You didn't get in the past.
美元的走势确实有影响，但在AI时代，可能影响会小一些。
The the positioning of the dollar does matter, but in an AI world, maybe a little less so.
我明白了吗？
Do I get it?
我能在新兴市场以更低的估值获得这种AI敞口，还是因为我能绝对获得？
This AI exposure in emerging markets at a lower valuation or because I can get Absolutely.
我能买到英伟达
I can get NVIDIA
基于17倍市盈率。
based 17.
我觉得这就是我们的看法。
I think that's the view.
是17倍的市盈率。
Is 17 times earnings.
是预期收益吗？
A forward earning?
这正是我们在投资方向中要指出的，考虑到夏季的回调，以及我们都知道的夏季大规模去杠杆。
That is one of the things that we're pointing out in investment directions given the pullback in the summer, given the massive leverage unwind that we all know that took place in the summer.
回到韩国和台湾这样的国家，尽管盈利增长，但市盈率比年初低得多。
You're going back to countries like Korea and Taiwan, given the earnings growth at a much lower PE than you were in the beginning of the year.
所以，是的。
So Yep.
鉴于一些波动，估值更好了。
Better valuations given some of the volatility.
但我想明确一点。
But I do wanna be clear of one thing.
我觉得市场接下来还会有波动。
I think there is volatility ahead in the markets.
我们是持建设性态度的，但建设性不代表风平浪静。
We're constructive, but constructive doesn't mean calm.
亨利·比格前几天来了一趟，在彭博财经节目上和KKR一起，他提到一个制度转变，说60/40已经过时了，你得加入另类投资。
Henry big face stopped by the other day, Bloomberg money with KKR, and he's talking about a regime change where 6040 is dead, and you gotta plug in alternatives.
你同意贝莱德的观点吗，另类投资应该是每个人长期投资组合的一部分？
Do you agree at BlackRock that alternatives is part of everyone's long term portfolio?
我不会说60/40彻底死了。
I won't go as so far as to say that sixtyforty is ultimately dead.
我想说的是，你的投资组合需要不同类型的分散化，而且这些分散化需要从股票和固定收益部分同时来筹集资金。
What I would say is that you need different sorts of diversification in your portfolio and you need to fund that from both the equity as well as the fixed income portion of your portfolio.
所以当然，我们告诉投资者在组合里加入像流动性另类投资这样的东西，这能给你分散化，同时不带来方向性风险。
So absolutely, we're telling investors add things like liquid alts in your portfolio, which is giving you diversification without directionality.
流动性另类投资，也就是说，要有能保持市场中性策略的选项。
Liquid alternatives, again, having strategies that can be market neutral.
所以你不会和整个市场朝着同一个方向、带着同样的贝塔值上涨。
So you're not going up in the same direction with the same beta as the broad
黄金算流动性另类资产吗？
Is gold a liquid alt?
黄金不算。
Gold is not.
但iShares的代码，I-A-L-T，我们喜欢叫它IAlt，它是一种流动性另类资产。
But the iShares sticker, I a l t, I alt as we love to call it, is a liquid alternative.
再说一遍，想象一下传统的对冲基金策略，现在装进了ETF的壳子里，这对大家来说方便多了。
Again, think of traditional hedge fund strategies available in an ETF wrapper, which is much more useful to everyone.
关键点在于，你不跟着市场方向走，还能获得回报，而且是多元化的回报来源。所以，不用承担市场方向的风险。
Main thing here is you're not taking the market direction, and you're still getting returns, diversified sources of returns So what without taking
方向。
the direction.
流动性另类资产现在可以投资了吗？
Are liquid alts in?
它涵盖了很多种资产。
It's in a whole host of assets.
它也在固定收益市场里。
It's in the fixed income market.
它还在……
It's in the
我不……
I don't
知道。
know.
我是说，你知道的，
Mean, you know,
别这样。
come on.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
公开市场，固定收益里有。
Public markets, it's in fixed income.
股票里有。
It's in equities.
外汇里也有。
It's in FX.
但同时，你在做多空双向持仓。
But at the same time, you're taking long short positions.
这种操作太多了，尤其是考虑到AI带来的颠覆，你既在做空市场，也在做多AI受益股和非AI股票。
There's so much of that you're, you know, especially given the AI disruption, taking advantage of the short side of the market as well as the AI beneficiaries and non AI.
汤姆，你的iShares系统化另类投资，听听你说的。
Tom, your iShares systematic alternative Listen to you.
那个ETF什么的，iAlt，今年涨了18%。
ETF thing majiggy, iAlt, it's up 18% this year.
所以就直接涨到现在。
So just straight up until
它跟英伟达不相关。
It is non correlated
跟英伟达不相关。
with NVIDIA.
跟大盘相关。
Correlated to broad markets.
而且我还想说，在这个世界里，股票和债券都有AI风险，考虑到你们刚才提到的投资级债券发行，拥有这种不相关的风险，而没有贝塔，真的很重要。
And I would also say that in this world where you're getting that AI risk in both stocks and bonds, given the IG issuance that you guys were just talking about, having that non correlated risk without the beta is really important.
所以iAlt是增加不相关多元化风险的一种方式，而不承担方向性风险。
So I Alt as one way of adding non correlated diversified risk without taking the directionality.
所以我不会说60/40已经过时了。
So won't go as far as to say $60.40 is dead.
固定收益领域肯定有很多收益机会。
There's definitely a lot of income and fixed income to be found.
所以一定要通过像贝莱德收益这样的产品来获取这些收益。
So definitely be clipping that with stickers like BlackRock income.
话虽如此，考虑给你的投资组合增加一些另类投资，对吧。
Having said that, think about adding alternatives to your portfolio Right.
这些另类投资可以来自固定收益和股票。
Sourced from both fixed income and equities.
我能问你一个问题吗？
Can I ask you a question?
问吧。
Do it.
不按剧本来。
Off script.
当然可以。
Sure.
当然。
Absolutely.
你在哈德逊河里参加过铁人三项吗？
Do you do the triathlon in the Hudson River?
我参加过。
I have done it.
是不是有那种水流？
Is it one like a current?
就是，你一进去，突然就被冲走了。
Like, you go in and all of a sudden you're waving I'm back.
冲到自由女神像那儿？
The Statue Of Liberty?
没那么远，但确实有一点。
Not that far, but there is a little bit.
有时候会有一些水流。
There can be some current.
还可能有水母。
There can also be jellyfish.
游泳的时候会遇到水母吗？
Do you swim to there can be jellyfish?
有可能。
That can.
你是游到新泽西吗？
Do you swim do you swim to Jersey?
是往下游。
You swim down.
顺流往下游。
You swim downstream.
所以纽约市铁人三项赛，每年夏天举办，你从大约七十街或八十街往下游，一直游到……
So the New York City Triathlon, which happens every summer, you swim down from sort of the seventies or eighties down down to the
我觉得她不用Peloton。
I'm thinking she doesn't use a Peloton.
不是。
No.
我觉得她戴着浮漂，就那样顺流漂下去了。
I think with the floaties, she's kinda cruising down on the on
转弯的时候。
the turn.
我要是参加的话也会这么干。
That's how I would do it.
那些参加铁人三项的人，就是……
The triathlon people, there's just
他们太疯狂了。
They're nuts.
他们肯定有点问题。
Something going on there.
我采访过那个拿了很多次冠军的人。
I interviewed the guy who did it, like, won a lot.
我相信你认识那位先生。
I'm sure you know the gentleman.
他说他犯的最大错误就是训练过度。
And he said this biggest mistake he made made was to overtrain.
而当他开始在工作间隙休息时，他变得更好了。
And the moment he started resting between workouts, he got better.
好的。
Okay.
我永远不会忘记那一点。
I'll never forget that.
我休息了。
I'm off for the rest.
所以我在休息。
So I'm resting.
我可以坐在沙发上，和最好的那些人一样。
I can sit on the sofa with the best of them.
你知道吗？
You know?
Gargi，我是说，我不知道你们在BlackRock那边是怎么做的。
Gargi, I mean, I don't know what you guys do over there, BlackRock.
这个演示文稿做得很好。
This is good good deck.
我已经准备好开始了。
I'm all ready to go here.
你知道，这要特别感谢
You know, this is a shout
你们的
out to your
初级分析师，他们把这个整理出来的。
junior analysts who put this together.
我很喜欢听这个。
I love hearing this.
问个问题。
Quick question.
就二十秒。
Got twenty seconds.
你在亚洲看到的最大的洞察是什么？
What was the greatest insight in Asia that you saw?
好问题。
Good question.
抛开日常工作，你在亚洲看到了什么洞察？
Away from the grind, what was the Asian insight you saw?
你看。
Look.
我觉得在美国，大多数投资者的投资组合对新兴市场，尤其是亚洲市场，配置严重不足。
I think here in The US, most investor portfolios have had a big underweight to EM markets, to Asian markets in particular.
是
Are
不是。
not.
看到亚洲投资者关注中期选举，并且对美国不同行业的配置有自己的看法，这真是太棒了，他们的投资组合非常多元化。
It is fantastic to see the diversification portfolio sitting down with Asian investors that care about the midterms, that have views around how to be allocated in different US sectors.
所以真正令人印象深刻的是投资组合的多元化。
So it's the diversification in the portfolios that was really impressive.
得走了。
Gotta go.
Gargi Chaudhuri，恭喜你在贝莱德担任新职务。
Gargi Chaudhuri, congratulations on new duties at BlackRock.
我们很高兴她能加入我们。
We're thrilled that she could join us.
请继续关注我们。
Stay with us.
稍后，彭博监控节目将继续为您带来更多内容。
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
如果你投资、经营企业或分配资金，单方面的观点是不够的。
If you invest, lead a business, or allocate capital, one-sided views aren't enough.
和我一起，巴克莱全球研究主管布拉德·罗戈夫，在《另一面》播客中。
Join me, Brad Rogoff, the global head of research at Barclays, on the flip side podcast.
每个月，我都会和全球团队中的一位专家分析师正面交锋，就最重要的经济和市场问题进行辩论。
Each month, I go head to head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most.
从通胀和人工智能到股票和信贷趋势，每场辩论都能帮你看到头条新闻可能遗漏的内容。
From inflation and AI to equity and credit trends, each debate helps you see what headlines might miss.
无论你在哪里收听播客，都能找到《另一面》。
Find the flip side wherever you get your podcasts.
你好。
Hi.
我是大卫·韦斯顿。
I'm David Weston.
每周和我一起收听《华尔街周报》播客，了解世界各地的资本主义故事。
Join me every week for the Wall Street week podcast to hear stories of capitalism from around the world.
从地缘政治紧张局势和央行决策，到人工智能、能源和基础设施，我们会与那些正在塑造全球市场的CEO、经济学家、政策制定者和思想领袖坐下来聊聊，无论他们在哪里。
From geopolitical tensions and central bank decisions to artificial intelligence, energy, and infrastructure, we sit down with the CEOs, economists, policymakers, and thought leaders whose decisions are shaping markets everywhere we find them.
在Apple、Spotify或任何你收听播客的地方订阅《华尔街周报》播客。
Subscribe to The Wall Street Week Podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.
你正在收听的是彭博市场观察播客。
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日午后东部时间早上7点到10点，欢迎收看我们的直播。
Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.
通过彭博商业应用，在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听。
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
或者也可以在YouTube上观看我们的直播。
Or watch us live on YouTube.
这确实在很多层面上都令人愉快。
This is indeed a joy on many levels.
首先，他确实在指数中提到了波士顿红袜队。
First of all, he actually in the index mentions the Boston Red Sox.
是吗？
Does he?
好的。
Okay.
有一处引用，在第61页。
One citation, page 61.
那纯属巧合。
It was a fluke.
现在有请大卫·鲁宾斯坦。
David Rubenstein joins us now.
他的新书《老板的视角：体育界的权力与领导力对话》。
The new book Inside the Owner's Box Conversations on Power and Leadership in Sports.
大卫，我得花点时间说说这个。
David, I've gotta take a moment here.
你把这本书献给了了不起的罗伯特·巴内特。
You dedicate this book to the wonderful Robert Barnett.
他代表我和我的家人。
He represents me and my family.
他也代表你。
He represents you.
失去鲍勃·巴尼特真的很令人痛心。
It was tragic to lose Bob Barnett.
鲍勃·巴尼特对华盛顿和巴尔的摩来说意味着什么？
What did Bob Barnett mean to Washington and to Baltimore?
嗯，鲍勃·巴尼特是我法学院的朋友。
Well, Bob Barnett was a friend of mine from law school.
我认识他大约有五十年了。
I've known him knew him for about fifty years.
鲍勃发展了一项业务，专门代理美国前总统、参议员、国务卿处理出书或媒体合作的事务。
And Bob developed a practice where he represented former presidents of The United States, senators, secretaries of state in getting book deals or media deals.
所以，他多年来一直代理我，我写的每一本书都是他负责的，还有很多比我更出名的人也是他的客户。
And therefore, he represented me for many years in every book that I ever wrote, and many other people much more prominent than me.
所以大约一年前他去世的时候，是的。
So when he died about a year ago Yeah.
因为一场悲惨的癌症，对华盛顿特区的人来说真的是一个巨大的损失。
From a tragic cancer, it really was a real loss for people in Washington DC.
太好了。
Wonderful.
在老板包厢里，我们这边的团队，斯蒂尔。
Inside the Owner's Box, our team right here steal.
保罗，我们队里有金莺队的球迷。
We have Orioles fans on our team, Paul.
我知道。
I know that.
当然。
Absolutely.
斯蒂尔。
Steel.
完全正确。
Exactly right.
那么，大卫，在你的书里，你采访了美国职业体育联盟各支球队的老板。
So, David, in your book, you interview owners of Major League sports teams across the sports spectrum.
包括爱国者队的罗伯特·克拉夫特，华盛顿首都队和奇才队的泰德·莱昂西斯，还有我的劳伦斯维尔同学，布鲁克林篮网队的蔡崇信。
Robert Craft of the Patriots, Ted Leonsis of the Washington Capitals, and the Wizards, and my Lawrenceville classmate, Joe Tsai, the Brooklyn Nets.
大卫，你在和这些老板的交谈中，发现他们有什么共同点吗？
What's some of the commonalities, David, that you found in your discussions with some of these these owners here?
其实，很少有老板小时候就想着要当老板。
Well, very few owners actually, as children, expected to be owners.
我从来没想过自己会当老板。
I never expected to be an owner.
年轻人可能更想当运动员，而不是老板。
Young young people probably wanna be athletes, not owners.
但随着年龄增长，他们会意识到自己的运动天赋并没有当初想象的那么出色。
But eventually, when they get older, they realize their athletic skills are not as great as they once wanted them to be.
而那些真正成为老板的人，其实更在意赢球，而不是赚钱。
And then the owners that actually become owners, the people that become owners, they're really more obsessed with winning than they are with making money.
我采访了很多老板，写这本书的部分原因是我自己成为老板的时候，想找一些关于当老板是什么体验的书，但能找到的很少。
I interviewed owners and I'd wrote a book in part because when I was becoming an owner, I was looking for books on what it was like to be an owner, and there were relatively few owner books that I could find.
所以我想，如果我能采访其他老板，了解他们为什么成为老板，同时也能分享我自己为什么成为巴尔的摩金莺队——我家乡的棒球队——老板的故事。
And so I thought if I could interview other owners, would get a sense of why they became owners, I and would give my own story about why I became an owner of the Baltimore Orioles, my hometown baseball team.
大卫，你知道，曾经拥有一支主要体育球队是百万富翁的游戏。
David, you know, there once was a time when owning a a a major sports franchise was the the game for millionaires.
后来变成了亿万富翁的游戏。
And then it's became the game for billionaires.
现在机构资金也开始进入球队所有权了。
And now we've got institutional money coming into the ownership.
比如洛杉矶道奇队。
I think about the Los Angeles Dodgers.
还有NFL允许私募基金持有少数股权，当然，英超球队也有企业所有权。
I think about the NFL allowing private equity to own minority stakes, and, of course, corporate ownership of the English Premier League teams.
你觉得这接下来会怎么发展？
Where does this go from here, do you think?
嗯，这之所以会发生，部分是因为球队的价值涨得太高了，以至于很少有人能买得起一支球队。
Well, the reason this is happening is in part because the values of franchise have gone up so much that very few individuals can buy a team.
比如说，现在NFL球队价值超过100亿美元，很少有人能开出一张100亿美元的支票来买下一支球队。
So for example, NFL franchises, which are now worth $10,000,000,000 plus, very few individuals can write a check that can buy a team for $10,000,000,000.
所以，你需要引入外部资金。
Therefore, you need to get outside money.
现在NFL允许球队购买某些私募股权公司最多10%的股份。
The NFL now allows teams to buy certain private equity firms by up to 10%.
其他联盟允许主权财富基金投资，但都是少数股权。
Other leagues allow sovereign wealth funds to invest, all in minority stakes.
我们还没到私募股权公司或主权财富基金能拥有美国主要球队并控制它的地步，对吧。
We haven't gone to the point yet where where a private equity firm or sovereign wealth fund can own a major American franchise Right.
但这种情况未来可能会发生。
And control, but that could happen down the road.
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
大卫·鲁宾斯坦，《老板席内幕》。
David Rubenstein, Inside the Owner's Box.
各位，这是今年最棒的体育书籍。
Folks, this is the sports book of the year.
它真的非常深刻。
It is absolutely piercing.
我给你们举个例子。
Let me give you one example.
我有一位很棒的爸爸，他是个有信仰的人。
I had a great dad who was a man of spirituality.
他经济上并不宽裕。
He was of limited financial means.
他经营着一家小干货店，但他实际上是个精神领袖。
He had a small dry goods business, but he was really a person who was a spiritual leader.
他担任马萨诸塞州所有犹太会堂的负责人长达十二年。
He was head of all synagogues of Massachusetts for twelve years.
他从不看电视。
He never watched TV.
然后他的儿子罗伯特·克拉夫特，后来赢了六次超级碗。
And then his kid, Robert Kraft, went on to win six Super Bowls.
我是说，像克拉夫特这样的人，他做的那些事，我觉得是波士顿爱国者队。
I mean, a guy like Kraft, I mean, what he did to pick up the I think it was the Boston Patriots
那时候。
then.
对。
Yep.
大卫，给我们讲讲罗伯特·克拉夫特的故事吧，你从他身上学到了什么。
Not even give us a vignette into Robert Kraft, David, and what you learned from him.
嗯，罗伯特·克拉夫特出生在波士顿。
Well, Robert Kraft was born in Boston.
他大学是在哥伦比亚大学读的。
He went to college at Columbia.
他其实在哥伦比亚大学打过橄榄球，后来一直热爱橄榄球，但他做的是包装行业的生意，基本上那就是他的一生。
He actually played football at Columbia University and later retained his love of football, but he built a business in the packaging business and and basically that was his life.
后来有个机会，他买下了那支橄榄球队比赛的体育场，再后来他直接把球队也买了下来。
And then an opportunity came along to buy a stadium, that football team was played in, and later he bought the team itself.
然后他赢了六次超级碗。
And then he won six Super Bowls.
现在他已经参加了十一次超级碗，我觉得在最近这个时代，没有人参加过这么多超级碗，也没有人赢过这么多超级碗。
He's now been to 11 Super Bowls, and I think in the recent era, nobody's been to as many Super Bowls, and nobody's won as many Super Bowls.
鲍勃·克拉夫特热爱橄榄球，现在他还拥有革命队，那是波士顿的男子足球队。
And Bob Kraft loves the game of football, and now he also owns the Revolution, which is the men's soccer team in Boston.
所以他对职业体育界贡献非常大。
So he's given a great deal to this professional sports world.
当然，他有一位非常著名的四分卫，汤姆·布雷迪。
And obviously, he had a very famous quarterback numb Tom Brady
他在第六轮选中的，但后来成了，我觉得，史上最伟大的四分卫。
Who he drafted in the sixth round, but later became, I guess, the greatest quarterback of all time.
第57页。
Page 57.
大卫·鲁宾斯坦把皮特·阿隆索带到了金莺队吗？
Did David Rubenstein bring Pete Alonso to the Orioles?
嗯，你知道，我买下金莺队部分原因是为了帮助我的家乡巴尔的摩。
Well, you know, I bought the Orioles in part because I wanted to help my hometown of Baltimore.
我小时候的巴尔的摩，城市更大，更有活力。
Baltimore, when I was growing up, was a much bigger city, more vibrant.
它经历了一些挑战，我觉得我在慈善方面为巴尔的摩做的，相比其他地方还不够。
It's had some challenges, and I thought that I hadn't philanthropically done enough for Baltimore compared to other places.
我想如果我能买下这支球队，让它稍微复兴一下，那会对巴尔的摩市中心有帮助，对整个巴尔的摩也有好处。
And I thought if I could buy the team and revive it a bit, it would help Downtown Baltimore and help Baltimore generally.
到目前为止，球场上的成绩还没达到我的期望，但我很享受这个过程。
So far, haven't been as successful in the field as I would like, but I've enjoyed the experience.
我只是想提醒大家，我只是个老板，当有人来找我要签名或自拍时，我会试着提醒他们我不是球员。
It's just that I try to remind people that I'm just an owner, and I when people come up to me for autographs or selfies, I try to remind them that I'm not a player.
但有时候，当八岁的小男孩走过来时，他该说什么呢？
But sometimes when eight year old boys come up, what he's supposed to say?
我没那么重要。
I'm not that significant.
别要我的签名。
Don't get my autograph.
所以我还是签了名，但我觉得这些签名在eBay上卖不出几分钱。
So I signed the the autograph, but I don't really think that they're gonna sell on eBay for more than a a penny or 2.
鲁宾斯坦跟别人不一样，如果你看完美的卡姆登球场，他不在豪华包厢里。
The Rubenstein different folks, if you gaze at the perfect Camden Yards, he's not up in the fancy box.
鲁宾斯坦坐在不是第一排。
Rubenstein is in row not row one.
大概第二三排吧，你知道，靠近球员休息区。
Row, like, two or three ish, you know, the dugout.
好的。
Alright.
他戴着帽子。
He's got a hat on.
他在低调行事。
He's going incognito.
但是，你
But, you
知道的。
know so.
大卫，作为巴尔的摩金莺队的老板，你觉得明年美国职业棒球大联盟会停摆吗？
David, as owner of the Baltimore Orioles, do you believe there'll be a work stoppage in Major League Baseball next year?
我不确定会发生什么。
I don't think I know what will happen.
我认为专员已经说服了所有老板，最好的做法就是让专员和他的团队去尝试谈判达成协议。
I think the commissioner has convinced all owners that the best thing we can do is let the commissioner and his team try to negotiate a deal.
所以我觉得，与其给自己惹麻烦、被棒球界禁赛，我还是说，就看谈判的人能谈出什么结果吧。
So I think rather than get myself in trouble and get banned from baseball, I'm gonna say, we'll just see what the negotiators come up with.
我真的不知道会发生什么，但显然，我希望我们能有一个完整的赛季。
I just honestly don't know what will happen, but clearly, I hope that we have a full season.
大卫，我得在这里岔开一下，就我们剩下的几个问题。
David, I have to digress here just in the final questions that we have.
我们有一个机构。
We have an institution.
我大概十五年前在看一部电视剧，叫《美国谍梦》，特别棒。
I was watching this TV show, The Americans, from, like, fifteen years ago Awesome.
关于大卫·鲁宾斯坦在华盛顿特区的那些镜头，他们在拍那些漂亮的画面。
Of wash of David Rubenstein's Washington DC, and they're doing the beauty shots.
而且很多时候，远景是那种水平的、漂亮的六十年代建筑，就是肯尼迪中心。
And often the distance is a beauty shot of a horizontal gorgeous sixties architecture, the Kennedy Center.
对。
Yep.
现在这成了辩论的焦点。
It's front and center now in debate.
大卫，不好意思，打断一下。
David, what is the excuse me.
特朗普总统之后，肯尼迪中心最好的结果是什么？
What is the best outcome for the Kennedy Center after president Trump?
嗯，我担任肯尼迪中心董事会主席十四年，而且在董事会待了二十年。
Well, I chaired the Kennedy Center board for fourteen years, and I was on the board for twenty years.
我当然非常关心肯尼迪中心。
And I obviously care a lot about the Kennedy Center.
我想我给了肯尼迪中心超过一亿美元的慈善捐款。
I think I gave the Kennedy Center more than a $100,000,000 in philanthropic contributions.
我希望肯尼迪中心能蓬勃发展。
And I want the Kennedy Center to thrive.
它最初是作为两党、无党派的表演艺术中心，作为对肯尼迪总统的活纪念而设立的，而且它就应该这样。
It was set up as a bipartisan, nonpartisan performing arts center as a living memorial to president Kennedy, and that's what it should be.
而且我非常希望，总有一天我们能把它重新变成一个不分党派、两党合作的表演艺术中心，让每个人都想去那里观看和演出。
And I'm very hopeful that at some point we can return it to a nonpartisan bipartisan performing arts center that everybody wants to go to and perform at.
你和我都很喜欢查理·库克。
You and I adore Charlie Cook.
艾米在《库克政治报告》里做得非常出色。
Amy's he's do Amy was doing such a beautiful job at the Cook political report.
查理·库克昨天为《库克政治报告》写了一篇文章。
Charlie Cook wrote an essay yesterday for the Cook political report.
那篇文章对民主党在中期选举中无法组织起来，或者说在特朗普总统之后依然如此，进行了非常严厉的批评。
It was absolutely scathing about how the Democratic Party can't get organized to take on this midterm or frankly after president Trump.
民主党需要怎么做，才能重新凝聚在大卫·鲁宾斯坦和罗伯特·巴内特所代表的那个时代和地方的价值观周围？
What does the Democratic Party need to do to coalesce around the values of David Rubenstein and Robert Barnett of another time and place?
嗯，我们看看选举结果会怎样吧。
Well, we'll see what happens in the elections.
按照传统，中期选举中，总统所在的政党通常会失去大约25个众议院席位和两到三个参议院席位。
The midterm elections traditionally, a president loses about a 25 house seats and about two or three senate seats.
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我们不知道会发生什么。
We don't know what will happen.
我们以前只经历过一次类似的情况，那就是一位总统在非连续的第二任期。
We've only had one experience like this before, which was a president was in a second term that was nonconsecutive.
那是十九世纪末的格罗弗·克利夫兰。
That was Grover Cleveland in the late eighteen hundreds.
而那次对他的政党来说结果并不好。
And that was not a great outcome for his party.
他在众议院失去了133个席位，这是有史以来最大的损失。
He lost a 133 seats in the house, the greatest loss ever.
现在我不知道是否还会发生类似的事情。
Now I don't know whether anything like that could happen again.
我觉得不会。
I don't think so.
但根据我从库克报告和其他地方看到的民调数据，我怀疑共和党在这次中期选举中要保住两院会很困难。
But I suspect that it will be difficult for the Republicans to hold on to both houses, in this midterm election based on the polling data that I've seen from the Cook report and other places.
但时间会证明一切，你永远不知道人们最后一刻会怎么投票。
But time will tell, and you you never know how people are gonna vote in the last minute.
你今晚是去看金莺队对洋基队的比赛吗，在洋基体育场？
You're to Orioles, Yankees tonight, Yankee Stadium?
你懂我的意思吧？
You know I mean?
比赛快到了。
It's coming up.
不不不，不是的。
It it it no.
今晚我们在卡姆登球场有一场比赛，是对多伦多的补赛。
Tonight, we have a game in in in Camden Yards, a rain out game we have to play against Toronto.
洋基队是在巴尔的摩的系列赛结束之后才会来。
The Yankees are coming up in the future after the series is over in Baltimore.
是的。
Yes.
打败他们。
Defeat them.
大卫·鲁宾斯坦，谢谢你。
David Rubenstein, thank you.
非常感谢。
Thank you so much.
各位，我对这件事真是说不尽的好话。
I can't say enough about this, folks.
请继续收听。
Stay with us.
接下来还有更多彭博观察的内容。
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
你正在收听彭博观察播客。
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日东部时间早上七点到十点，欢迎收听我们的直播。
Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.
可以通过Bloomberg商业应用在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听。
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
或者也可以在YouTube上观看我们的直播。
Or watch us live on YouTube.
现在我们请来一位嘉宾，聊聊经济方面的内容，很高兴能请到她，她在波士顿的ITR工作。
Joining us now for an economic break, love having her on with ITR up in Boston.
Saidel-Baker现在加入我们。
Saidel-Baker joins us right now.
Lauren，不好意思，我们还在疫情中呢，各位。
Lauren, excuse me, we still have the plague folks.
Lauren，展望未来，名义GDP会持续增长吗？
Lauren, is nominal GDP just gonna sustain as you look out?
名义GDP会跌破5%，还是永远保持这个水平？
Does top line GDP come under 5%, or is it forever like?
我永远不会说永远，但在一段时间内，我们确实还有空间。
I I would never say forever, but for a while, we do have a runway here.
我觉得2027年增长会稍微放缓，但还是相当稳健。
I think 2027 will see moderately slower growth, but still quite solid.
今年很多决策，特别是资本支出和企业开支，很多都提前到了2026年。
A lot of this year's, especially CapEx and business spending decisions, a lot of that's been pulled into 2026.
所以我预计这些宏观因素在2027年会稍微歇一歇。
So I would expect some of these, kind of macro factors to take a breather in 2027.
我个人非常关注消费者的情况。
The consumer is the one that I'm personally watching very closely.
我们现在看到实际个人收入在下降。
We are seeing real personal incomes declining now.
所以面对这么多通胀，我们的收入确实有点跟不上。
So with all of this inflation, our income is just not quite able to keep pace.
这会对明年造成一些下行压力，但我肯定不认为会有衰退，而且我确实看到这些相当高的增长率。
That's gonna be a bit of a downside for next year, but I I don't see any recession certainly, and I do see these rather elevated growth rates.
利率。
Rates.
还有保罗，尼尔·达德在《商业内幕》上周末写的文章，他主要聚焦于他对消费放缓的预测。
And Paul, Neil Dudder writing in Business Insider over the weekend, that's where he focused on his prediction of a slowing consumer.
他写的东西我全都看。
I read everything he writes.
那是肯定的。
That's for sure.
劳伦，我刚看了下WTI原油，现在每桶不到90美元，但你知道，这价格波动挺大的。
Lauren, I'm just looking at WTI crude oil now just below $90 a barrel, but, you know, it's all over the place here.
我觉得很多人，甚至美联储，都在试图弄清楚，核心潜在通胀到底是多少。
I think what a lot of folks are trying to, maybe even the Federal Reserve is trying to figure out, what's kind of the core underlying inflation?
你怎么看
How do
这个问题呢？
you kind of think about that?
所以美联储，我们听到了关于核心通胀的新指标。
So the Federal Reserve, we've heard new metrics for core inflation.
现在已经不只是核心PCE了。
It's not just that core PCE anymore.
我们是要转向截尾均值还是其他这些指标呢？
Are we going to a trimmed mean or some of these other measures?
总的来说，我们在ITR Economics的做法是全面来看，不只是看CPI、核心PCE或者那些头条数字。
Overall, what we do here at ITR Economics is we look at this holistically, not just the, say, CPI or core PCE or any of those headline numbers.
我们真正想了解的是人们实际感受到的是什么。
We really wanna see what are folks actually feeling.
现在不同消费群体的情况会有所不同。
That's going to be different for different consumer segments right now.
所以，再次把它和收入对比，看看实际购买力怎么样。
So, again, comping that to incomes to see where are we on a real basis.
如果我们想更深入了解消费者，目前我们看到贷款条件正在放宽。
If we do wanna go deeper into the consumer, we currently see that lending conditions are are loosening.
所以如果需要的话，可能更容易获得信贷。
So maybe it's easier to get that credit if you need it.
我们发现个人储蓄余额并没有那么坚挺。
We don't see our personal savings balances really hanging in as strongly.
所以我觉得消费者的支柱，他们怎么应对这种通胀呢？
So I think of the consumer's legs of a stool, how do they combat this inflation?
至于具体数字是多少，我们可以争论一整天，但关键是他们在感受到通胀。
As for what that exact number is, we could argue about it all day, but the point is they're feeling it.
我是说，你在韦尔斯利的时候，当然，这是在伟大的卡尔·凯斯之下，我们每天都在想念他。
I mean, when you were at Wellesley, and of course, this is under the giant Karl case that we miss every day.
劳伦·赛德尔-贝克，任何一本入门经济学教科书的第23章都会把股市和经济联系起来。
Lauren Saidel-Baker, chapter 23 of any given intro economics book links the stock market into economics.
你会这样做吗？
Do you do that?
你会把现在看到的股市表现和你对未来的经济看法联系起来吗？
Do you link equity performance that we see now into your view of the economy forward?
我要把它纹在额头上。
I'm gonna get it tattooed on my forehead.
股市并不等于经济。
The stock market is not the economy.
没错。
There we go.
我们确实要关注股市。
We do we wanna watch the stock market.
那里确实有些情况，但现在它并不能反映经济的关键故事。
There's something happening there, but right now, that is not telling us the key economic story.
我认为，它代表的是哪些行业可能在推动增长，比如我们谈到的AI、数据中心，还有正如你之前的嘉宾所说，这些如何传导到电气化，也就是我们需要的新发电能力，以及其他相关领域。
It is, I think, representative of what sectors might be driving some of this growth as we talk AI, data centers, and I I mean, as your previous guest said, where that trickles down to the electrification, right, to this new power generation that we're needing and all of those other capabilities.
归根结底，这正在推动很多经济活动，尤其是在B2B领域，而且确实推高了一些关键零部件的价格。
At the end of the day, that is driving a lot of the activity across, especially the b to b space right now, and that is in fact driving higher pricing in some of these key components.
这不像疫情期间和之后那段时期的黄金螺丝问题那么严重，但确实存在需求因素在推高某些行业的价格，而且影响范围远不止数据中心领域。
It's not quite the golden screw problem that we had back during COVID and the immediate aftermath, but there are certainly demand factors that are pulling up pricing in certain sectors that are being felt much more widespread than just in the data center space.
所以，我把它看作一个不错的参考指标，值得关注，但我绝不会从资产价格中得出我的经济结论。
So I'm looking at it as a nice kind of benchmark, something to pay attention to, but I would never put my economic takeaways from the asset prices.
那么，劳伦，关于AI支出，它一直是美国股市故事的重要组成部分。
So Lauren, just as it relates to AI spending, it's been such a major part of The US equity market story.
现在固定收益市场也是如此。
Now the fixed income market as well.
它也是GDP和经济增长方面的一个大话题。
It's also been a big story of just kind of GDP in general, economic growth.
你有多担心，如果AI支出回落，会对这里的经济产生更广泛的影响？
How concerned are you that to the extent AI spending pulls back that would have broader economic impacts here?
再说一次，这当然有可能，因为增长一直集中在那里。
Again, it certainly could as that has been where the growth is concentrated.
但尽管增长如此迅速，而且这些百分比看起来令人瞠目结舌，它仍然不是我们经济的主体。
But that growth as rapid as it has been and, you know, as just eye popping as these percentages are, it still is not the vast majority of our economy.
如果我看GDP，其中三分之二由消费者驱动。
If I'm looking at GDP, two thirds of that is driven by the consumer.
剩下的三分之一，大致在商业投资和政府支出之间平分。
The remaining third, it's roughly evenly divided between business investment and government spending.
所以我们现在占的比例其实很小。
So we're already at a rather small wedge.
就算AI明天突然消失，显然会有影响，但不会占到GDP增长的一半。
Even if AI were to dry up tomorrow, clearly, would be an impact, but it's not going to be, you know, half of all GDP growth.
经济里还有很多其他因素在起作用。
There there certainly is a lot else going on here in the economy.
美国是个非常大的经济体，按GDP算全球最大，而且有很多其他因素在支撑它。
We are a very large economy here in The United States, the largest in the world on a GDP basis, and that is being supported by so many other factors.
AI只是目前增长最快的那一块。
AI is just the one with the high growth right now.
你把美联储的预期和试图管理经济放缓联系起来了吗？
Do you link your Fed expectation to trying to manage a slowdown in the economy?
美联储的预期。
Fed expectations.
我的意思是，我一直说通胀是关键驱动因素，不知道说了多少年了，我们预期利率会在某个时候开始上升。
I mean, I have been saying that inflation is the key driver for I don't know how many years now, that we were expecting rates to start moving higher at some point.
这个月我们就到了那个节点。
We we reached that point, here this month.
所以我还在关注通胀。
So I'm still watching for inflation.
说到底，劳动力市场表现还是相当不错的。
Again, at the end of the day, the labor market is holding in quite well.
我觉得经济放缓的那一面其实不需要特别去管理。
I don't think that side of the slowdown really needs to be managed.
显然，这些人关注的因素非常多。
Obviously, these folks are paying attention to so many different factors.
但如果只看那个严格的双重使命，通胀才是他们需要担心的，而我认为AI会带来这方面的压力。
But if we're just going by that strict dual mandate, inflation is the thing they need to worry about, and I see that being a pressure for from AI.
这也是推动价格上涨的关键因素之一。
That that is one of the key drivers here behind higher pricing.
所以我觉得这才是更紧迫的焦点。
So I think that is the more immediate focus.
长期来看，什么都有可能发生。
Longer term, anything can happen.
你下载了Meta的Muse了吗？
Have you downloaded Muse yet from Meta?
还没有。
I have not.
这是个热门推荐。
That's a hot tip.
我今天得去下载一下。
I'm gonna have to go do that today.
Paul Sweeney比我们领先多了。
Paul Sweeney is way out front of us.
对。
Yep.
就算我下载了，也不知道该怎么用。
I I have no idea what to do with it even if I download it.
先玩玩看。
Playing with it.
我也不知道。
I don't know.
我会搞明白的。
I'll figure it out.
那挺好的。
Well, good for you.
我是说真的。
I mean, seriously.
Lauren Saidel-Baker，非常感谢你。
Lauren Saidel-Baker, thank you so much.
ITR Economics的经济学家。
Economist ITR Economics.
请继续收听。
Stay with us.
稍后，彭博观察节目还有更多内容。
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
全球增长正在书写新篇章，而其中很大一部分正在非洲发生。
A new chapter in global growth is being written, and much of it is happening in Africa.
非洲人需要投资。
Africans need to invest.
这里有交易可做，有生意可赢。
There are deals to be done and business to be won.
我是詹妮弗·扎巴萨贾。
I'm Jennifer Zabasaja.
每周在《下一站非洲》播客中，我们追踪塑造非洲未来的资本流动和政治变化。
Every week on the Next Africa podcast, we track capital flows and political shifts shaping the continent's future.
非洲的
The
数字化将推动其增长。
digitalization of Africa is gonna power its growth.
彻底消灭像HIV这样的疾病是有可能的。
Riding the world of something like HIV is possible.
非洲的人口增长非常迅猛。
Population growth is so enormous in Africa.
在Apple、Spotify或任何你收听播客的平台上，收听Next Africa。
Listen to Next Africa on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
你正在收听的是彭博观察播客。
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
工作日东部时间早上7点到10点，我们直播，欢迎收听。
Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to 10AM eastern.
通过彭博商业应用，在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听。
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
或者也可以在YouTube上观看我们的直播。
Or watch us live on YouTube.
我们直接进入正题吧。
Let's get right to it.
我在美联储日见到了马特·卢泽蒂。
I see Matt Luzzetti on Fed Day.
我才问了一个问题，他就心不在焉的，因为他得去跟德意志银行的客户谈。
And I get, like, one question in, and he's really not focused because he's gotta go talk to Deutsche Bank clients
对。
Yep.
全球范围。
Worldwide.
太棒了。
Love it.
马特·卢泽蒂现在就在演播室。
Matt Luzzetti in studio right now.
我得问问你，这也是德意志银行经济学的传统，就是看一个火热经济中的名义GDP，如果我们试图让经济降温，会有不同的结果，对吧？
I just gotta ask you, and and this is the heritage of Deutsche Bank economics, to take nominal GDP in a roaring economy, and there's different sets of outcomes if we try to bring ourselves down from a roaring economy?
你猜会是哪种结果：实际增长放缓，还是通胀放缓？
Which outcome do you guess between dampened real growth and dampened inflation?
那我们现在处于这个繁荣经济的第三年，情况怎么样？
What's where are we at three years on this boom economy?
所以我的意思是，你
So I mean, you're
你指出这一点完全正确。
absolutely right to highlight it.
我们的名义GDP增长率是6.5%。
We're at 6.5% nominal GDP growth
而且同比
And year over
所以我觉得上周我们聊天的时候，很多人可能对美联储在供应冲击下加息提出了质疑。
so I think last week when we were chatting, there's been a lot of maybe pushback on the Fed for hiking into a supply shock.
确实，供应冲击还在持续。
And and it is true that there are supply shocks ongoing.
但我们一直认为，需求背景也非常强劲，对吧。
But I think we've been arguing that there's also a pretty robust demand backdrop Mhmm.
推动名义GDP增长走高。
Driving nominal GDP growth higher.
你知道，我们的基线预期是通胀会随着时间推移而下降，但我们也一直认为，要实现这一点，美联储需要收紧货币政策。
You know, our baseline is that we will see inflation come down over time, but it's been our baseline that the Fed needs to tighten monetary policy to get there.
所以，你可能看到实际增长在一段时间内有所放缓，但通胀最终也会随着时间推移而下降。
So you probably have some slowing, over time in in in real growth, but also inflation coming down, ultimately over time.
我想，主席鲍威尔概述的观点，希望主要是通胀问题，而实体经济能够继续稳步前进。
I think, you know, chair washes outlining a view hopefully where it's mostly an inflation story and the real economy can continue to chug along.
是的。
Yep.
我想你听到美联储官员开始更多地讨论，要降低通胀可能需要付出多少代价。
I think you're hearing Fed officials beginning debate a little bit more, how much pain might be required to get inflation down.
比如，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比，这周也重新提到了这一点。
Think, Goolsby, Chicago Fed President, this week also brought that back.
所以，从美联储的角度来看，我们还没有到全面辩论的阶段，但明年有可能达到那一步。
And so we're not there yet, I think, from a full debate from a Fed perspective, but it's possible that we get there next year.
马特，很多聪明人跟我说，别抱怨十年期国债收益率在5%了。
Matt, a lot of smart folks are telling me, stop whining about interest rates being higher at 5% for the ten year.
我们的名义GDP增长是6%或者更高。
We get a nominal GDP of six or whatever percentage higher.
在这种经济增长下，利率就应该在这个水平。
This is where rates kind of should be given that kind of economic growth.
你怎么看待当前经济背景下的利率环境？
How do you think about the interest rate environment with the economic backdrop here?
我觉得，考虑到经济背景，尤其是财政状况，利率水平没什么不正常的。
Think that there's probably nothing unusual about where interest rates are given the economic backdrop and certainly given the fiscal picture.
我觉得不正常的，是拿现在和金融危机到疫情之间那段时期比，那时候的零利率环境才叫特殊。
I think the unusual nature of it is when we compare it to what we saw between the GFC and the pandemic, that very unusual zero interest rate environment.
疫情之后，大家就在争论，到底是有什么根本性的变化，让我们彻底告别了那个环境，回到了正常状态，还是说我们还会回到那种状态？
And there was a debate, I think after the pandemic about what has fundamentally changed that has either it pushed us more fully away from that environment and returned us to normal or would we get back there?
我们认为，2010年代到金融危机之间的零利率环境，其实是个异常现象。
It's our view that it was anomalous, zero interest rate environment between the 2010s and the GFC.
那是由于去杠杆化、紧缩的财政政策，以及我们在全球看到的非常规货币政策所驱动的。
That was driven by deleveraging that you'd seen, fiscal policy that was contractive, unusual monetary policy that we saw across the globe.
这些都已经成为过去。
Those are all behind us.
我们现在正处于投资热潮中，财政政策非常支持，债务与GDP的比率也在上升。
We have an investment boom ongoing, you have fiscal policy which is very supportive, Debt to GDP ratios that are rising.
今天没有低利率的必要。
There's no need for low interest rates today.
马特·卢泽蒂和我们在一起。
Matt Luzzetti with us.
达米安说他们正准备参加全球华尔街节目。
Damian says are on deck for Global Wall Street.
卢泽蒂先生正在时代华纳中心与德意志银行合作，不过他们把它改名了。
Mister Luzzetti is with Deutsche Bank at the Time Warner Center, except they renamed it
卢泽蒂中心。
The Luzzetti Center.
是的。
Yep.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
就在中央公园的那个角落。
Over there in the corner of Central Park.
另外，我记得我采访过福克斯·兰道，他主导了你所有的工作，我想是在普京进入乌克兰的那天或者第二天，他非常准确地预测了即将到来的财政刺激。
As as well, I interviewed focused Landau driving all of your work, I think the day Putin walked into Ukraine or the day after, and he absolutely nailed the fiscal impetus to come.
我们现在是靠持续的疫情刺激过活，还是处于一个新的刺激阶段？
Are we living off continued COVID stimulus, or is this a new stimulus that we're in right now?
我觉得现在这已经跟疫情刺激没什么关系了。
I don't think this is really about COVID stimulus at this point.
那个。
That.
我们已经超越了那个阶段。
We are beyond that.
在美国，去年我们通过了那个大而美的法案，提供了减税，给经济带来了助力。
In The US, we had the one big beautiful bill last year, which would provide a tax cuts and a tailwind to the economy.
然后还有人工智能相关的投资，这你知道，是推动经济的关键来源。
And then you just have AI related investment, which is driving you know, it's a it's critical source of Okay.
那么接下来会发生什么
So what happens
在那之后呢？
after that?
嗯，问题是“在那之后”是什么时候，我觉得
Well, the question is when is after that, I think
好的。
Okay.
大多数。
Most.
抱歉。
I Sorry.
我觉得那之后不是未来六到十二个月的事。
Think after that is not over the next six to twelve months.
那之后可能是在那个时间窗口之外。
After that might be beyond that that window.
不过，消费者这边也在强劲增长。
You do have a consumer, however, that is also growing pretty strongly.
如果你看
If you if you look
亚特兰大联储的数据，他们追踪到第三季度实际消费支出年化增长4%。
at the Atlanta Fed, they're tracking 4% annualized growth for real consumer spending in Q3.
简直难以置信。
Unbelievable.
这是我们在那里多年来看到的最强劲的增长。
That's the strongest growth that we've seen there in several years.
这跟劳动收入有关。
That is about labor income.
劳动力市场其实正在好转。
You have a labor market that is actually turning around.
消费者名义收入增长有4.3%，而且还有巨大的财富效应，这跟AI交易有关。
Have 4.3% nominal income growth coming for the consumer, but also big wealth effects and that is tied into the AI trade.
看看你的德意志银行股票，汤姆，我之前真没注意到这个。
Looking at your stock Deutsche Bank, I did not see this Tom.
德意志银行过去五年的复合年增长率是28%。
Deutsche Bank over the last five years compounded annual growth of 28%.
他们表现太出色了。
They're killing it.
这太厉害了。
That is amazing.
我真没想到会这样。
I'd not see that coming.
确实是个亮点。
A weak moment.
彼得·胡珀雇了马特·卢泽蒂，然后，你知道，股价就直接涨上去了。
Peter Hooper hired Matt Luzzetti, and, you know, stock went straight up.
嗯，他们比，他们比
Well, they more than they more than
准备好发货了，确实。
ready to ship true.
那么，马特，我们这边在劳动力方面要谈些什么呢？
So, Matt, what are we talking about here on the labor side here?
现在还是那种招聘慢、解雇也慢的情况吗？
Is it still kind of a slow to no hire, slow to no fire kind of world out there?
因为，天哪，4.2%的失业率对我来说真的算是充分就业了。
Because, boy, 4.2 or whatever the unemployment rate is really seems full employment to me.
所以我觉得我们正在经历几个阶段。
So I I think we're we're going through kind of phases.
去年出现了明显的放缓，这促使美联储又进行了一轮降息。
You have this the clear slowdown that took place last year that had motivated the Fed to go through another cycle of rate cuts.
但自那以后，我认为劳动力市场已经明显触底，出现了稳定，我们可能正在进入一个劳动力市场更明显收紧的阶段。
But since then, think there's been a clear bottoming, there's been a stabilization that's happened in the labor market, and we are potentially entering a phase where the labor market is tightening more meaningfully.
我们的就业增长高于维持失业率所需的平衡水平。昨天ADP的周度数据与每月8万个私营部门就业岗位相符。
We have job gains that are above the breakeven rate that is needed to keep We the unemployment rate saw yesterday's ADP weekly data is consistent with 80,000 private sector jobs per month.
这远高于我们认为所需的水平。
That's well above levels that we think are needed.
与此同时，失业率下降，更广泛的劳动力市场闲置指标也在下降，工资增长开始出现早期回升迹象。
And with that, you've seen the unemployment rate decline, broader measures of labor market slack decline as well, early stages of wage growth beginning to pick up.
所以现在我认为问题是，我们只是在这里稳定下来，还是会出现重新加速？
So now I think the question is, are we simply stabilizing here where we are or is there a reacceleration that could take
有很多人在寻找消费放缓的迹象。
place in the There's a lot of people out there looking for a slower consumer.
明确地说，在核心国内最终销售中，你是在寻找重新加速。
You're looking for, to be clear here, within core, you know, domestic final sales, say, you're looking for a a reacceleration.
看。
Look.
我觉得目前劳动力市场的趋势就是这样。
I think in the labor market, those are the trends at the moment.
消费者方面有明显的交叉影响。
There are clear cross currents for the consumer.
有道理。
Fair.
劳动力市场正在转变。
The labor market is is is turning.
工资增长显示出一点上升的迹象。
You have wage growth that is showing a little bit of an uptick.
同时，能源价格显然对此构成阻力。
At the same time, energy prices are are are clear headwind for that.
你提到了利率和房贷利率，这些也是阻力。
You mentioned interest rates and mortgage rates, so those are also also headwind.
总的来说，我认为消费者会保持在当前水平附近。
I think on balance, you keep a consumer kinda closer to where it is.
好的。
Okay.
但如果没有能源市场这些事，我觉得消费者的信心会更强。
But in the absence of what's happening in the energy market, I think you would see stronger consumers back.
好的。
Okay.
马特，我们不在乎。
Matt, we don't care.
好的。
Okay.
我这边的情况是这样的。
Here's what I got.
我这边是加州大学洛杉矶分校对阵加州大学。
I got UCLA playing California.
我这边是加州大学洛杉矶分校对阵圣地亚哥。
I got UCLA playing San Diego.
然后上周，UCLA以三比零赢了普渡。
And then last week, three and o UCLA did it to Purdue.
普渡？
Purdue?
那是一场联盟内的比赛。
In an in league game.
现在他们好像要跟威斯康星打一场联盟内的比赛。
Now they're gonna play an in league game against Wisconsin, I think.
俄勒冈，好吧，我就选这个。
Oregon, okay, I'll go with that.
那应该是西海岸的。
That's West Coast, I think.
然后是马里兰。
And then Maryland.
你是怎么……你以前在UCLA踢过足球吗？
How do you how do you did you did you play football at UCLA?
我记不清了。
I can't remember.
所以我在
So I
高中
played football
踢过足球。
in high school.
不是在UCLA。
Not not not at UCLA.
不是。
No.
UCLA现在是十大联盟的一部分。
UCLA is part of the big 10.
感觉世界都颠倒了。
It's like the world turned upside down.
这确实很难完全理解。
It's it's difficult to to to kind of fully comprehend.
我周末看了南加州大学对阵罗格斯大学的比赛。是的。
Was watching USC play Rutgers Yes.
就在周末。
Over the weekend.
那是一场联盟内的比赛，这真是……
And that was an in in conference game, which was
玫瑰碗是不是失去了它的辉煌？我觉得没有，我……
Is the Rose Bowl like is the is the Rose Bowl lost its magnificent I don't think it on I any
我觉得它不会失去。
don't think it can.
我的意思是，那是一个美丽的地方，适合去看足球比赛，在一个……
I mean, that's a beautiful place to go watch watch football on a on a
你有没有在那种十万四千人的场合去过那里？
Have you been there with, like, a 104,000 people?
我读研究生的时候去看过UCLA和USC的比赛。
Went went to saw UCLA, USC while I was at grad
研究生的时候。
school.
德意志银行的票。
The Deutsche Bank tickets.
我知道。
I know.
那是在研究生的时候。
That was in grad school.
我看到，比如，某个学校的女子曲棍球队，比如UCLA，在机场准备飞到新泽西的皮斯卡塔韦去跟罗格斯比赛。
I see, like, the women's field hockey team from pick any school, UCLA, in an airport coming to Piscataway, New Jersey to pick Rutgers.
我就想，这怎么说得通呢？
I'm like, how does that make sense?
就像
It's like
这个行程安排肯定
The travel schedule has to
特别疯狂。
be insane.
我真不知道那些孩子是怎么做到的。
I don't know how the kids do it.
你觉得这里的股票市场怎么样？
What's think of the equity markets here?
你看。
Look.
Binky，我们的美国股票策略师，一直坚持他对标普500指数8000点的预测。
Binky's, who's who's our US equity strategist, has has stayed with his call for 8,000 on the S and
标普550
P 550
他完全抓住了这波牛市。
He's absolutely nailed this bull market.
他确实坚持了这个观点。
He has, and and he's he's stuck with the view.
你知道，我觉得这和我对实体经济的看法是一致的，就是劳动力市场在扩大，消费者方面也在扩大。
You know, I I think kind of consistent with what I'm outlining for the real economy, which I think is this broadening out that you see in a labor market, you actually see some broadening out within the consumer.
我想他也注意到了盈利增长方面的这种扩大。
Think he's noted that you see that within earnings growth as well.
这不再仅仅是关于人工智能了，盈利增长已经扩展到各个公司和行业。
Is not simply about AI anymore, that you've had a broadening out across companies and sectors in terms of earnings growth.
所以他坚持了他对年底8000点的预测。
And so he he stuck with his view of 8,000 for the end
年底。
of the year.
Matt Luzzetti，非常感谢你，来自UCLA，当然也是德意志银行的首席美国经济学家。
Matt Luzzetti, thank you so much from UCLA and, of course, always chief US economist at Deutsche Bank as well.
这是彭博观察播客，可在Apple、Spotify以及任何你获取播客的地方收听。
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
每个工作日早上七点到十点，东部时间，在bloomberg.com、iHeartRadio应用、TuneIn和Bloomberg Business应用上收听直播。
Listen live each weekday, seven to 10AM eastern on bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app.
你也可以每个工作日通过YouTube观看我们的直播，并且随时可以在Bloomberg终端上观看。
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
每个工作日，充分利用彭博智库的力量。
Harness the power of Bloomberg Intelligence every business day.
嗨。
Hi.
我是Scarlet Fu。
I'm Scarlet Fu.
我是Paul Sweeney，邀请您加入彭博智库播客。
And I'm Paul Sweeney inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast.
我们为您带来影响市场的公司深度分析，从苹果、英伟达、微软和Alphabet等股票，
We bring you deep dives into the company's moving markets from stocks like Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Alphabet
到像OpenAI和Anthropic这样的新闻中的私营公司。
To private companies in the news like OpenAI and Anthropic.
下班路上收听，赶上那些让你领先对手的分析。
Listen on your way home from work to catch up on the analysis that keeps you ahead of the competition.
今天就订阅彭博智库播客，在苹果播客、声田或任何你收听的地方都可以。
Subscribe to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast today on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.
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