英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利谈人工智能风险、私人信贷和加密货币

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感谢您，州长，参与我们的对话。

And thank you, Governor, for joining us.

今天上午，我们在会议上已经听您谈了货币政策，但大家也广泛讨论了人工智能及其对经济的潜在影响，还有新AI工具带来的网络安全风险。

At this conference, we did have an opportunity to hear from you and talk to you about monetary policy this morning, but there's also been there's a lot of conversation about AI and the potential impact on the economy of AI, but also the cybersecurity risks associated with new AI tools.

最近我们一直担心的是Mythos。

And of course, recently, the one we've been hearing about worrying about is Mythos.

我想确认一下，英国的银行现在能用上Mythos了吗？

Can I just confirm have UK banks got access to Mythos now?

他们是正在试用阶段吗？

Are they getting it on that trial basis?

目前银行还无法使用Mythos，这个问题非常重要，顺便说一句，这是一项关键进展。

So they don't have access to Mythos at the moment and that's an issue that is very important and by the way this is a very important development.

但市面上还有其他模型。

But there are other models out there.

MIFAS并不是唯一可用的模型。

Mean, MIFAS isn't the only model out there.

显然，各方都在竞相推动这项技术向前发展。

There's obviously something of a race going along to move the technology on.

我非常乐观，认为它们很快就能整合到位。

And I'm very optimistic that they are just have or about together.

英国主要银行已经可以使用其他模型，这些模型能为他们带来显著提升。

The major UK banks have access to other models which will get them substantially.

不过我们还是回到Mythos上吧。事实上，我们之前有个报道，Anthropic公司负责英国和北欧业务的负责人上个月告诉彭博社，英国银行高管很快就能参与‘玻璃翼’项目。

But just came back to the mythos because we had a story in fact I think the Anthropics UK and Northern Europe's head, the company that obviously makes mythos, they told Bloomberg last month that it would be within a week that UK bank chiefs were going to be able to be part of that the glass wing project.

你知道后来怎么样了吗？

Do you know what happened?

确实，过去六周左右一直在讨论‘玻璃翼’第二阶段，但至今还没落地，我觉得这事被美国政府的流程拖住了。

Well there was a yes so there has been a glass wing phase two being talked about really for the last six weeks or so but it hasn't happened yet and I think this has been somewhat caught up in the process with the US administration.

所以抱歉，我理解你的言外之意是，Anthropic当初在彭博电视上说，再过几天或一周就能推进，但现在似乎是被美国政府那边卡住了。

So sorry just reading between the lines it sounds like Anthropic had certainly told us on Bloomberg Television that it was going to be just a matter of days or a week or so and it's the US administration that has potentially

我们并没有参与这个流程。

Well we're not party to that process.

公平地说，我认为Anthropic确实付出了很多努力。

I think to be fair to Anthropic, think they have been working very hard.

他们需要接触关键方，这非常重要。

They want access to critical parties and it's very important.

他们目前仍在积极争取这一点。

They're still I think actively seeking that.

至于为什么不同公司的流程会有差异，说实话我也解释不了。

Quite why the process is a bit different from one company to another, I'm afraid I can't explain to you.

从我们的角度来看，鉴于我们对相关风险的担忧，获得访问权限至关重要。

Obviously from our point of view given our concern about the risks involved in this, it's very important that there is access.

我真正希望看到的是，能尽快建立一个既受控又高效的评估机制，来审查这些模型。坦白说，英格兰银行的IT主管告诉我，这些模型一旦发现问题，后续就得立刻进行大量补丁修复。

And What I really want to see is there is evolve a process very quickly where we can have a sort of controlled but fast process to assess these models and frankly what my head of IT at the Bank of England told me is a ton of patching that then has to follow very quickly to fix the things that these models are finding.

我想，在这个话题里，我们也不得不考虑另一个问题：当人们提到开源公司，尤其是那些落后的公司时，我总会感到不安。

And I guess and as part of this conversation I guess we also think about one of the conversations I have when I get nervous is when they also talk about the open source, companies that are a bit behind.

他们吸引用户的方式是靠开源，这意味着一旦发现坏人用这项技术去抢劫银行之类的，你就没法像对付其他系统那样把它关掉。

The way they get users is to have open source which means if you discover that the so called bad guys are using that technology to rob banks or whatever it is, you're then not able to turn it off in the way you can with the others.

我不是这方面的专家，就不多说了。

Well, look I'm not speaking as an expert on this subject.

你必须是专家。

You have to be an expert.

嗯，我们确实在努力快速学习。

Well yeah we try to learn quickly.

从我们之前这么多讨论里，我总结出两点。

I think two things that I've taken from the many discussions we've had.

第一，如果你的网络安全防护做得好、准备得充分，那你在面对这个过程时就会比没准备的人占优势。

One is that I think if you have kept your cyber defences up and better prepared, you will go into this process in a better place than if you haven't.

多年来我们一直和英国的银行紧密合作，以后也会继续这么做。

And we've worked very hard with UK banks over many years and we'll go on doing so.

第二，你说得对，开源这个问题确实关键。

Secondly, I think you're right on the open source point.

现在Anthropic明确表示，开源反而比闭源更危险，这确实是他们从大量工作中得出的结论。

Now I think Anthropic is certainly saying is, look, open source is more of a vulnerability than closed and that's certainly a conclusion they've drawn from all the work they've done.

但我想强调两点：第一，市面上的开源项目其实非常多。

Mean there are two things I think however, one is there's a lot of open source out there.

第二，我本人并不是这方面的专家，但确实存在很多关于开源和闭源的近乎教条式的争论，而这一点正在挑战那些固有观念。

Two, again I'm not an expert in this field, there's a lot of almost theological doctrine about open source and not open source which this is somewhat pushing against.

是的，我们过去总觉得开源更有优势，但这次情况似乎不一样了。

Yes, think because we've tended to say there's been a sort of inclination towards open source but in this case it feels like it's more

这个观点已经受到了质疑。

It's been questioned.

这是否也凸显了一个更大的风险？就是回到Anthropic提到的问题——美国公司在这片领域占据绝对主导，而英国银行却不得不低头去求美国人，才能获得技术访问权限？

Does it highlight sort of overall the risks of I mean going back to the anthropic thing of having US owned companies being absolutely dominant in this space and actually UK banks you being in the position of kind of going begging to the Americans to get access to it?

说实话，我对这些公司总部设在哪里并不持特定立场，因为这项技术的发展规模实在太大了，意义也非常重大，未来会带来很多积极影响。

Well look I don't take a particular position on where the sort of in the sense that the companies are based that are developing these things because this a very very big development and it's actually very important and there are many good things that will come out of this.

我想说的是，由此引发的网络安全风险影响范围太广，我们不能只靠某个国家单独应对和缓解这些后果。

What I would say is that the spillovers from this sort of written out some cyber risk are so big that we can't just have a single sort of national approach towards dealing with the consequences and mitigating it.

这件事必须采取国际合作的方式。

There's got to be an international approach to this.

必须建立一个合理且扎实的国际机制，因为我觉得，任何人如果以为只要管好自己的银行就没事了，那可就错了——这些机构之间联系得太紧密了。

It's got to be in a sensible sort of firmly based international process because I think anybody who thought well I've dealt with my banks, that's okay, I'm afraid that won't work because they're all so heavily interconnected.

我们有庞大的支付系统和通信系统，那种单打独斗的做法行不通。

We've got big payment systems, big messaging systems so that approach won't work.

作为金融稳定委员会主席，您显然参与了大量关于全球金融稳定和风险防范的讨论，而眼下大家特别担忧的是美国。

Now as Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, you're obviously involved in lots of discussions around sort of global efforts on financial stability and looking for risks and one area again where people are looking nervously at The U.

美国。

S.

尤其是私人信贷的快速增长，是否应该对私人信贷施加更严格的监管，比如增加信息披露等要求。

In particular is the run up of private credit and whether there should be a more of a sort of a tougher approach to at least having more reporting requirements or other things on private credit.

您多次指出，许多传统银行和金融机构如今已与私人信贷深度绑定。

You've highlighted that a lot of traditional banks and institutions are now very much intertwined with private credit.

那么，您在向美国方面提出这些风险时，有没有得到重视？

Is that I mean are you getting a hearing on that from The US in terms of the risks of that?

是的，我认为首先私人信贷正在发挥重要作用。

Yes, I think, look first of all private credit is playing an important role.

我觉得这是好事。

I think it's a good thing.

我们先回头聊聊人工智能。

Let's come back to AI for a moment.

目前对人工智能和更广泛科技领域的创新有巨大的投资需求，而私人信贷在满足这一需求方面至关重要，这确实是好事。

We've got a very big investment demand going on for it to support the innovation in AI and in the tech sector more broadly and private credit is an important part of meeting that demand and that's a good thing.

但我们需要仔细审视‘私人’这个词，因为它在某些方面容易让人产生误解，私人信贷并不是孤立存在的。

What I think we have to look very carefully at is the word private can be misleading in some ways because it is not an island on its own.

它与整个金融体系紧密相连。

It is connected into the system, into the broader system.

许多底层的流动性都来自银行体系。

A lot of the underpinning liquidity will come from banking system.

它和银行体系是连在一起的。

It is connected into the banking system.

这没什么奇怪的，本来就是不可避免的。

That's not bad, that's inevitable.

所以我们必须清楚这些关联是怎么运作的，哪里可能存在脆弱点。

So it's very important that we understand those interconnections, how they work, are there points of sort of fragility in there.

正因如此，英格兰银行正在开展第二轮全面压力测试，继几年前我们针对对冲基金活动和主要国债市场那次之后。

That's why at the Bank of England we're doing a second system wide exploratory scenario to follow on the one we did on hedge fund activity and major government bond markets a couple of years ago.

这是第一点。

So that's the first thing.

第二点我认为很重要，尤其是在零售投资领域不断扩展的情况下：投资者是否真正理解他们所持资产的性质？因为目前市场已经出现了一些压力迹象。

The second thing I think is important is and I think this is particularly true with the spread into sort of so called retail investment is do the investors understand the assets they've got and the characteristics of those assets because there are clearly there are some signs of strains in the market.

这些情况常被说成是孤立的、个案性的。

I think they're often described as idiosyncratic.

每个事件确实都有不同的背景，但我们确实看到赎回请求大幅增加，流动性正在被大量抽走。

Okay every incident will have a different story attached to it but we are seeing some increase in requests, quite a big increase in requests for outflows to take liquidity out.

而最终结果如何，将取决于投资者当初以为自己拥有什么，和现在实际发现拥有的东西之间有多大差距。

And I think how that plays out will depend on what investors think or thought they had relative to what they sort of now think they've got.

我们再来看看另一个领域，现在英国和美国在这方面的差异相当明显，至少在你们之前提出的方案里是这样：关于稳定币，你们原本打算限制个人和企业持有的稳定币数量，但现在似乎打算放弃这个想法？

Just to run through another area where you've got quite a big distinction now between The UK and The US, or at least there has been in the proposals you had put forward, was for stablecoins and the basic approach Are you'd had towards you now scrapping the idea of capping the amount of stablecoin that individuals and businesses can?

我们确实需要尽快解决这个问题，夏季之前我们会推出新的提案。

Well, we've got to get at that for and the we'll be coming up with proposals shortly before the summer.

所以还是推迟了？原本不是说六月就公布吗？

So it's still because it was supposed to be in June.

在暑假开始前，我们会把这份方案发布出来。

Before the summer holiday season takes off for us we'll get that out.

你们现在是在考虑对总发行量设限吗？如果是这样，那确实会是另一种方式。

Are you looking at total issuance limits instead of That would certainly be

这是一种可能。

an option.

我们先看看最终会走到哪一步。

Let's see where we get to.

我还想强调一点，关于稳定币，我们得重新从全球视角来看：跨境使用稳定币，必须建立一套大家都遵守的规则。

I think the other thing that I would emphasize with stablecoins is just to put the global hat back on again is that we are going to have to have sort of what I call sort of rules of the game as it were for the use of stablecoins cross border.

我们很快就要认真着手处理这方面的问题了，因为这非常重要。

We are going to be approaching the point when we really do need to sort of get seriously to work on that side of things because that's going to be important.

毕竟，我一直说，我们想要享受的是数字技术带来的好处，尤其是在支付系统中。

Because again, I always say what we want to get the benefit of is digital technology and all the benefits that will bring with it in the payment system.

实现这一点有多种方式，无论是央行数字货币、代币化存款，还是稳定币，都可以做到。

Now you can do that in all sorts of ways, you can do it for your central bank digital currency, can do it for your tokenized deposits, do it for your stablecoins.

我认为我们在对待这些问题时，不应该有任何偏向。

I don't think we should be in any sense sort of biased in our approach to that.

但确实需要有一套明确的规则来规范。

But there are going to have to be sort of rules of the road as it were.

你之前就以不同方式说过类似的话了。

But you've been saying something similar to that in various ways for a while.

对。

Yes.

但另一边的大西洋对岸，似乎根本不想设立任何规则，也完全不打算对这个市场设限。

And yeah it doesn't seem like there's any appetite on the other side of The Atlantic to have rules of the road or really very many limits on this part of the market at all.

他们认为这对美国来说是一个巨大的竞争优势。

They see it as a big competitive advantage for The US.

对。

Yes.

我是说，不过我觉得你看。

I mean but I think look.

我觉得世界其他地方对此会有不同的看法。

I think the rest of the world is gonna take a different view on that.

至于数字货币，也就是央行数字货币，美国这次又特意在《GENIUS法案》中禁止美联储发行数字美元。

And on the digital current the central bank digital currency, again, The US has now gone out of its way to ban in the genius act to ban The US from the Federal Reserve from producing a digital dollar.

零售

Retail

美元。

dollar.

英格兰银行会推出数字英镑吗？

Bank of England will be a digital pound?

我们还在继续推进这件事。

We're continuing to work on it.

这非常重要，因为能帮我们更好地理解背后的技术。

It's very important we do because it helps us to understand the underlying technology.

我个人可能算是比较怀疑的一方，关于分布式账本，我觉得核心问题是：我们真有必要创造一种新的央行货币形式，来满足支付系统数字化的需求吗？

For me, I know I'm probably at the sort of noted sceptical end on this distribution is, I think that for me the question is this: do we need to create a new form of central bank money to satisfy this need to have digital technology in the payment system.

这一点我们跟英国的银行也讨论过，他们说，你看，大部分货币其实都存在客户的账户里。

And look this is a point we discussed with The UK banks, said look most of the stock of money is in your accounts.

如果想想商业银行的钱，大部分资金其实都在银行体系里，央行只是持有其中一部分。

If you think about commercial bank money they've got most of the money, there's a stock of it in the central bank.

所以我觉得，最自然的起点应该是探索代币化的存款。

So I would say the natural starting point here is to explore the tokenized deposits.

现在国内外都在做这方面的尝试。

That is what is going on both domestically and internationally.

英国的银行正在研究这个，因为我们二十年前在快速支付系统上就领先了。

UK banks are looking at it because we got ahead in The UK twenty years ago with faster payments.

技术已经进步了，我们也得跟上。另外，国际上你可能前几天看到了新闻，国际清算银行正在推进一个叫Agora的项目，我们也参与其中，我觉得这非常好，因为它触及了另一个关键问题——如何改善跨境支付。我一向觉得，跨境支付简直就是被时间遗忘的角落。

The technology has moved on, we've got to move on and then internationally you may have seen the other day there was news of a test of the so called Project Agora which the BIS are running, which we're involved in, which I think is a very good thing because that gets to the other big issue, which is how can we improve cross border payments because I'm afraid I always described that as somewhat of the land that time forgot.

我逼你问这个问题，是因为我想再问最后一个。

I'm pushing you because I want this one last question.

我们注意到，不少央行官员在这里炫耀他们电脑里装了多少AI工具，怎么用的。

We've had some quite a lot of the central bankers here have been somewhat bragging about the number of AI tools they have on their own computers and how they're using it.

我们当然也在用AI。

We're obviously using AI.

我们的经济团队用AI分析英国央行的表态，判断它的政策走向。

Our economist team are using AI on what the Bank of England says and we're judging whether or not it's direction of travel.

你们是怎么用的？

How are you using

我们确实在用。

it We do.

我们对AI的应用正在不断加深。

So we're growing in our use of it.

我们当然用它来处理数据。

We use it obviously for data.

我们还用它来写代码，加快工作进度。

We use it for coding, speeding things up.

不过我们确实在货币政策委员会里也在用。

We But do use it in the MPC.

我们已经让员工尝试用它做建模。

We've experimented with the staff with modeling.

另外，我们也开始用语言模型来测试，比如如果货币政策委员会的纪要这样写，外界会怎么解读。

And also we do start to use it to use things like language models to say, well if you write the MPC minutes like this, how might it be received?

这可不太妙。

This is terrible.

我们现在正陷入一种恶性循环，因为大家都在用它。

We're now going to a sort of spiral because we are using it.

我们的经济学家已经自己开发了相关工具。

Have developed our own economists.

是的，我们已经做了。

Yes we've we've

我们注意到了。

noted that.

所以我们已经完成了我们的部分。

So we've done ours.

你们也做了你们的。

You've done yours.

整个事情正朝着人工智能的方向发展。

The whole thing is going into AI's kind

这跟你们的模型有点相悖。

of way against your model.

世界本来就是这样。

Well, that's the way the world.

但它对我们有帮助，因为它偶尔会提出一些新观点，比如：如果你这样写 MPC 会议纪要，可能会产生什么效果？这跟投票无关，纯粹是文字层面的。

But it's helpful to us because it does occasionally throw things up and it says, look, if you do this if you I mean, this is words, not this is not about voting or anything.

这说的是文字本身。

This is about words.

大家会怎么理解这个说法。

This is how it will be received.

对。

Yeah.

贝利州长这个人很有意思。

Governor Bailey is fascinating.

好的。

Alright.

谢谢。

Thank you.

非常感谢。

You very much.

获取关于推动科技行业迈向新前沿的人物与公司的核心资讯。

Get essential news on the people and companies pushing the tech sector to new frontiers.

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我是卡罗琳·海德。

I'm Caroline Hyde.

我是

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