斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒谈市场

新闻在周末也不会停止。

The news doesn't stop on the weekends.

背景

Context

不断变化，而现在彭博社是掌握所有动态的最佳去处。

changes constantly, and now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.

你好。

Hi.

我是大卫·古拉。

I'm David Gura.

每周六和周日，请收听全新的《彭博周末新闻》。

Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg this weekend.

我是克里斯蒂娜·拉菲尼。

I'm Christina Raffini.

我们将为您带来最新头条、深度分析和重磅访谈。

We'll bring you the latest headlines, in-depth analysis, and big interviews.

所有在你休息日触动你的故事。

All the stories that hit home on your days off.

我是丽莎·马泰奥。

And I'm Lisa Mateo.

请观看并收听本周末的彭博节目，深入了解商业、生活方式、人物与文化方面的深刻对话。

Watch and listen to Bloomberg this weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people, and culture.

在周六早晨，我们会回顾过去一周的事件，分析市场和世界发生了什么。

On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world.

而在周日，我们会采访记者、专栏作家和重要的政治人物，为你迎接新的一周做好准备。

Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists, and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead.

一醒来就加入我们，无论你的周末计划带您去往何处，都带着我们同行。

Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you.

在彭博电视上观看我们。

Watch us on Bloomberg Television.

在彭博电台收听，通过彭博商业应用实时流媒体观看，或收听播客。

Listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to the podcast.

这就是本周末的彭博资讯，周六和周日早上7点（东部时间）开始。

That's Bloomberg this weekend, Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7AM eastern.

将我们融入您的周末日常，通过彭博电视、广播以及您收听播客的任何平台。

Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television, radio, and wherever you get your podcasts.

彭博投资大会今天拉开帷幕，来自金融界最具影响力的一批领袖齐聚纽约，就人工智能、加密货币以及全球财富管理趋势等广泛议题展开对话。

The Bloomberg Invest Conference kicked off today with some of the most influential leaders in finance gathering in New York for conversations on a wide range of topics, including artificial intelligence, cryptocurrencies, and global trends in wealth management.

在大会上，彭博的索纳莉·巴斯克与杜克尼恩家族办公室的董事长兼首席执行官斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒就全球金融前景进行了对话。

At the conference, Bloomberg's Sonali Basak spoke with Stanley Druckenmiller, the chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Office for his outlook on the global financial landscape.

实际上，我想先从您开始，而不是从总统大选谈起。

Now I actually wanna start with you not with the presidential elections.

我们稍后再谈这个。

We'll get there.

但我确实想先和您聊聊美国债务上限问题。

But I do wanna start with you on The US debt limit.

因为这件事表面上看似明朗，但您一直非常明确。

Because this is something where we're out of the clear on the surface, but you have been very, very clear.

你最近重新展示了十年前在南加州大学给学生做的演讲。

You recently revived a presentation you did ten years ago with students at USC.

你告诉他们，美国支出所酝酿的经济风暴比你当初想象的还要严重。

And you've told them that the economic storm that's brewing from US spending is worse than you had imagined.

我也想在屏幕上展示一些你当时给他们看的图表，大致反映美国福利支出的增长速度。

I also wanna bring up on the screen some of the charts that you showed them, kind of the pace of entitlement spending in The United States.

我想问你，既然我们已经度过了华盛顿初期的阵痛，现在会有什么后果？

I wanna ask you, what are the consequence now that we're kind of past the initial pains in Washington?

这个国家、经济和投资者，现在都在忽视什么？

What is the country and the economy and investors, what are they ignoring?

谢谢，索娜莉。

Thanks Sonali.

很高兴来到这里。

Nice to be here.

我认为福利问题在接下来三到六个月里并不值得作为交易依据。

I don't think the entitlement situation is something you should be trading on in the next three to six months.

事实上，十多年来我一直专注于研究长期形势及其长远影响。

What I've been focused on actually for over a decade is the long term picture and the long term implications.

所以你绝对不该在听完我聊福利相关的内容后，就急着离开这场会议，觉得能靠这个找到什么交易机会。

So the last thing you should do is run out of this conference after I say something about entitlements and think there's a trade to be made on it.

现在的情况根本不是这样。

That's not that's not the situation.

听着，我得先往前回溯一点，早在九十年代的时候，有人发给我一篇论文，里面分析了五十年代生育率极高，后来生育率持续下滑，而我们会在二月份迎来一场人口风暴。

Look, need to go back a little bit, but way back in the nineties, somebody sent me a paper outlining how the birth rate in the fifties was so high and it had shrunk and that we're gonna have this demographic storm hit sometime in the February.

而且我们完全可以预判这个趋势，因为相关人口统计数据都是公开信息。

And you could pretty much map it because the demographics are public information.

除此之外，自从联邦医疗保险和联邦医疗补助计划在60年代与社会保障一同成为权益福利项目后，政府支出中用于老年人的占比就已经大幅攀升——那段时间里，这类支出占总支出的比例从30%涨到了58%。

This was on top of the fact that since Medicare and Medicaid joined Social Security as entitlements in the sixties, the senior share of, government spending had had already grown dramatically, say from 30 to 58% of outlays during that time.

我早在当年就忧心忡忡：大概会在某个二月，就像猪挤入巨蟒慢慢消化的那个过程一样，婴儿潮一代会步入老年，届时政府支出中已经有很高比例用在老年人身上，而老年人口还会激增。而且在我研究这个问题的时候，当代人的生育率已经降到了2以下。

And I was concerned way back then when that sometime in the February, sort of the like the pig and the python when when the baby boomers became seniors, already with with them a high percentage of government spending, your growth of seniors would be dramatic and by the time I was looking at it, the the birth rate for the current generation was below two.

所以未来我们会面临老年人口大幅增长，同时劳动人口却在缩减的局面。

So you're going to have this huge increase in seniors at the same time that you had a reduction in workers.

我们的系统运作方式是，用当前工人的税收来支付老年人的开支。

And the way our system works, you take the taxes of current workers to pay for seniors.

在2011年或2012年左右，情况看起来非常糟糕，以至于我决定走出去，看看能否推动这个问题的改变。

It really looked bad to me in around 2011 or 2012, so much so that I thought I'd go out and see if I could move the needle on this issue.

我确实取得了很大的成功。

I was really successful.

唐纳德·特朗普和希拉里·克林顿唯一达成共识的就是不要动福利项目。

The only thing Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton agreed on was that you shouldn't touch entitlements.

换句话说，没人听我的。

In other words, nobody listened to me.

那时的情况已经很严峻了，而展望未来，更是令人恐惧。

It was a tough situation then, and looking out, was really scary.

但当你只是说‘比我想象的还要糟’时，我并不知道接下来的十年，政府债务会远远超出福利项目本身而急剧增长。

But when you just use the term worse than I ever imagined, what I didn't know is the next ten years, we were just going to have a proliferation of government debt even outside of outside of entitlements.

然后当新冠疫情来袭时，这简直就是雪上加霜。

And then when COVID hit, it was just sort of the cherry on top.

回望那十年，利率接近零，你经历了两次大的经济繁荣，一次是在2018年特朗普执政期间，他名义上是共和党人，而共和党本应非常重视财政支出。

It's it's hard to believe, looking back during those ten years, with interest rates near zero, you had two big economic booms, one going into '18 under Donald Trump, supposedly a Republican, supposedly with a party that cared a lot about spending.

在失业率仅为3.5%的情况下，我们却出现了前所未有的情况。

And with three and a half percent unemployment, we had something unprecedented.

我们出现了万亿美元的财政赤字。

We had a trillion dollar deficit.

通常，当经济强劲时，税收收入会增加，赤字会缩小。

Usually, when the economy is roaring, tax revenues go up and the deficit shrinks.

随后在2021年新冠疫情后出现了经济复苏，同时也伴随着科技和科技股价的疯狂上涨，以至于资本利得比常年平均水平高出6000亿美元。

We then had a post COVID boom in 2021, which was also accompanied by wild, increases in in tech and in tech stock prices, so much so that we had capital gains $600,000,000,000 above the average capital gains for a year.

我们通过频谱拍卖获得了1000亿美元的收入。

We sold $100,000,000,000 in spectrum sales.

由于通货膨胀，我们的名义增长率达到了10%。

We had 10% nominal growth because of inflation.

所以你可能会问自己，上一次科技繁荣发生在1999年民主党执政时期，顺便说一句，那时我们是有财政盈余的。

So you might ask yourself, since the last tech boom in 'ninety nine under a democratic administration, by the way, we had a surplus.

在2021年这些异常情况下，盈余有多大？

How big was the surplus with all these anomalies in 'twenty one?

我又自问自答了。

Again, led my own question.

我们出现了超过一万亿美元的赤字。

We had over a trillion dollar deficit.

我们甚至没能让赤字低于GDP的5%。

We didn't even get to less than 5% of GDP.

所以十年前我担心的问题，现在又叠加了巨额债务。

So what I was worried about ten years ago, you now have an enormous amount of debt on top of it.

零利率在一定程度上抑制了我对这个问题的担忧。

The zero interest rates kind of suppressed what I would say is the concern about this.

显然，债务这么多的时候，你根本不用支付利息。

Obviously, with a lot of debt, you're not paying any interest on it.

谁会在意呢？

Who cares?

但现在一旦通胀来袭，利率就会上升。

But now once the inflation hit, interest rates are going to go up.

所以，我在这里啰嗦了这么多，其实想说的重点是。

So the punch line I'm rambling on here more than I wanted to.

重点是，如果你看看当前的情况，然后问自己，其实我应该换种说法。

The punch line is if you take the current situation, and you ask yourself, well, I should actually say something else.

这段时期内，债务从大约20万亿美元增加到了30万亿——抱歉，是从15万亿美元增加到了31万亿美元。

The current the debt went from, say, 20,000,000,000,000 to 30 I'm sorry, 15,000,000,000,000 to 31,000,000,000,000 over that time.

这笔债务非常重要，因为大多数人并不理解：它假设未来不会再有任何医疗保险或社会保障支付。

That debt, and this is important because most people don't understand it, assumes there'll never be another Medicare or Social Security payment made.

正如你为学生们计算的那样，200万亿美元是当前的现值。

200,000,000,000,000 is the present value as you've calculated for the students.

不是我，是可信的人，比如拉里·科特利科夫和其他人。

Not me, credible people, Larry Kotlikoff and others.

所以，如果你假设我们今后永远不会再有任何社会保障或医疗保险支出，那么债务就是31万亿美元。

So if you assume we're never gonna have another Social Security or Medicare payment, the the debt is 31,000,000,000,000.

但如果你像任何一家公司那样做会计，并假设这些支付将会发生，那么现值可能大约是200万亿美元。

But if you did your accounting like any corporation and you assume those payments are gonna be made, yeah, the present value is probably around $200,000,000,000,000.

所以，我也应该说，这次演讲的主标题是‘美国例外论是否面临风险’。

So, you know, I should also say that the the big title of this presentation was is US exceptionalism at risk.

是吗？

Is it?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为是的。

I think it is.

美国是一个拥有卓越制度的了不起的国家。

America is an amazing country with an amazing system.

如果你看看这个国家的创新，只需看看自1980年以来发生了什么。

And if you look at the innovation in this country, just look at what's happened since 1980.

我们在个人电脑革命中处于领先地位。

We led in the in the PC revolution.

我们在互联网的发展上处于领先地位。

We led the development of the Internet.

我们在云计算的发展上处于领先地位。

We led the development of cloud.

我们在移动技术的发展上处于领先地位。

We led the development of mobile.

也许我们在加密货币上领先并不是好事。

Maybe it's not good that we led in crypto.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

我们显然在生成式人工智能领域处于领先地位。

And we're obviously leading in generative AI.

因此，我们一直以来都是领导者，同时我们也是储备货币。

So we've been the leader throughout, but we've also been the reserve currency.

而我们目前消耗了太多未来发展的根基，这让我对未来感到担忧。

And we've been eating so much seed corn presently that I worry about the future.

只有经济学家才能想出这么个词。

If if you were to take economists have this only economists could come up with this term.

这叫财政缺口。

It's called fiscal gap.

什么是财政缺口？

What is fiscal gap?

这就是今天必须提高多少税收，才能保证未来许诺给老年人的福利。

That's how much you would have to raise taxes today to guarantee the benefits you promised seniors in the future.

占GDP的7.7%。

It's 7.7% of GDP.

GDP的7.7%意味着什么？

What does 7.7% of GDP mean?

要真正支付未来承诺的福利，今天就必须永久性地将所有税收提高40%，或者永久性地削减所有支出36%。

To actually pay for the entitlements we promised in the future, you'd have to raise all taxes 40% today forever or cut all spending 36% today forever.

所以我在这里看到的是，这些做法都是在向未来借钱。

So what what I'm looking at here is this stuff is borrowing from the future.

你会挤出私人投资。

You're gonna crowd out private investments.

你会挤出那些让我们在这些领域成为领导者的投资类型。

You're gonna crowd out the kind of investment that made us a leader on all those kind of things.

但再说一遍，这是一个长期的担忧。

But again, this is a long term worry.

但两党都声称福利项目不在讨论范围内，而它们占联邦预算的70%以上且还在上升。

But but the statement by both parties that entitlements were off the table, it's like 70% of the federal budget and rising.

现在利率上升了，这简直是个幻想。

And now that interest rates have come up, it's a fantasy.

事实上，这是个谎言。

In fact, it's a lie.

我们肯定会削减福利项目。

We are definitely going to cut entitlements.

这只是一个时间问题：我们是现在削减，还是将来削减。

It's just a matter of we're gonna cut them today or in the future.

我们拖延得越久，问题就积累得越多。

And the longer we wait, the more it piles up.

一两年前，或者现在，利息支出约占GDP的1%到2%。

A year or two ago, or right now, the interest expense is about 1% or 2% of GDP.

这约占支出的6%。

It's about 6% of outlays.

国会预算办公室的估算，不是我的，到2050年利息支出将占支出的27%。

The CBO's estimate, not mine, interest expense is 27% of outlays by 2050.

仅 entitlements 和利息支出这两项，不包括国防、政府运转或对弱势群体的拨款，到2050年就将达到税收的117%，并在2040年超过全部税收。

And just entitlements and interest expense, just those two things alone, no defense, no running the government, no money for the disadvantaged, will be a 117% of taxes by 2050, and it'll be more than all taxes by 2040.

但同样，对于在场的投资者来说，这些只是长期需要担忧的问题。

But again, for investors in the room, this is just stuff to worry about in the long term.

我喜欢从长远角度思考，但就交易而言，这并不会影响你最初的问题。

I like to think in the long term, but for trading, it doesn't impact your your original question.

你对学生们说的这种方式，就像是地平线上十英尺高的海啸。

The way you put it to the students, it's the tsunami that is 10 foot out on the horizon.

但这里另一点是，我认为可以说你对财政和货币政策一直持相当批评的态度。

But the other the other thing here is it's, I think it's pretty safe to say you've been pretty critical of fiscal and monetary policy.

这里的问题是，我想再展示一张你给学生们看过的关于泡沫历史的图表。

The question here, and I wanna pull up one more chart on the history of bubbles that you showed the students as well.

因为我想问你的是，随着央行保持紧缩政策，你是否认为还有许多潜在问题尚未爆发？

Because the question I have for you there is, do you believe that there are still many shoes to drop as the central bank stays tight?

这正是我的核心观点。

That's my central case.

我关注的是风险与回报的权衡。

I deal in the world of risk reward.

关于资产泡沫，有着五百年的历史记录，这些在你曾有些异议的《时间的价格》一书中都有详细记载。

There's a five hundred year history of asset bubbles well documented in a book that you had some issues with, The Price of Time.

这本书基本上记录了——虽然我早已了解过去一百年的情况，但事实上这种现象已持续了五百年——每当出现重大的资产泡沫，经济困境总会紧随其后。

And basically, it documents, and I had already known this about the last hundred years, but it's going on for five hundred years, every time you've had a significant asset bubble, economic trouble lay ahead.

但确实，当你们经历了十一年的廉价资金，人们就会做出愚蠢的事。

But yeah, when you had eleven years of free money, people do stupid things.

你只要去查一下就知道了。

All you have to do is look it up there.

但最荒谬的是，有人花了800亿美元购买狗狗币，而它本来只是一个笑话。

But how the stupidest is somebody paid $80,000,000,000 for Dogecoin, which was invented as a joke.

我的意思是，这种情况只有在免费货币的世界里才会发生。

I mean, that can only happen in the world of free money.

它还让人们忽视了我刚才两到三分钟前谈到的那些问题，因为你把利率维持在零水平。

It also suppressed people worrying about the kind of stuff I just talked about two or three minutes ago because you keep rates at zero.

但事实上，这可能是自19世纪末以来最具破坏性的经济时期，却没有任何企业破产。

But the fact that this was arguably the most disruptive economic period we've had since the late eighteen hundreds and there were no bankruptcies.

但显然，最近几周已经开始出现了。

Apparently, they've started in the last few weeks.

这告诉我，当你从这种环境——有史以来最大、最广泛的资产泡沫——突然在一年内将利率提高500个基点时，表层之下一定积压了大量问题。我认为，硅谷银行和Bed Bath & Beyond很可能只是冰山一角。

It tells me there's a lot of stuff under the hood when you go from this kind of environment, the biggest, broadest asset bubble ever, and then you jack rates up 500 basis points in a year, I think the probabilities would suggest that Silicon Valley Bank's Bed Bath and Beyond, they're probably the tip of the iceberg.

没有任何事情是绝对有保障的。

Nothing's a guarantee.

我经常出错。

I've been wrong a lot.

我也偶尔对过几次。

I've been right a few times.

但没错，我们的核心预测是，还有更多问题即将浮现，尤其是在资产市场之外的经济领域。

But yeah, our central case is there's more shoes to drop, particularly in addition to the asset markets economically.

你最担心的是什么？

What are you most worried about?

我们肯定会谈到你看到的未来机会和绝佳投资点，但在那之前，什么最先开始崩盘？

We'll definitely get to the opportunities and the fat pitches that you see on the horizon, but before we even get there, what starts to sink?

我预计企业利润会下降20%到30%。

I could see corporate profits down 20 to 30%.

在严重衰退中，通常会是40%到50%。

Normally, would say 40 or 50 in a hard landing.

但这次衰退早已被广泛预期。

But this recession is so anticipated.

我不认为很多企业会措手不及，通常情况下，正是由于没有为突发事件做好准备，才会损失大量资金。

I don't think a lot of corporations are going to be caught with their pants down, which is how normally you lose a lot of money as you're not prepared for something that happens.

商业地产方面，我知道在座的各位都清楚这一点，但办公空间确实是个问题。

Commercial real estate, you know, I'm not informing anybody in this room of something I don't know, but office is a problem.

即使没有其他因素，这本来就已经是个问题，而生活方式的改变和新冠疫情让这个问题更加严重。

It would have been a problem anyway, but change of lifestyle and COVID makes it even bigger problem.

融资成本上升也让这个问题雪上加霜。

Financing rates going up make it a problem.

我担心未来六到九个月信贷会收紧。

I'm worried about credit tightening the next six to nine months.

显然，银行即将进入一个经济周期，如果我们真的陷入衰退，它们的资产负债表已经受损——但这种受损并非源于通常的贷款损失，而是因为美联储曾让它们相信利率会一直维持在零直到2024年。

Obviously, the banks are going into an economic period that if in fact we get a recession, their balance sheets are already impaired, not from where they usually lose money, which is loans, from the fact that the Fed convinced them that they're going to keep rates to zero until 'twenty four.

所以它们买入了大量收益率仅为1%或2%的国债，而现在这些国债的市场价值却跌到了5%。

So they bought a bunch of treasuries yielding 1% or 2%, and now they're carrying them at 5%.

因此，它们的资产负债表已经受损。

So their balance sheets are impaired.

但如果我们陷入衰退，真正的损失才会显现，比如信用卡、商业地产这类东西。

But if we get in a recession, then the real losses comes, which is stuff like credit cards, commercial real estate, that kind of stuff.

所以这些才是我担心的问题。

So those would be my worries.

你问我担心什么，这和我的预测是不一样的。

You asked me my worries, that's different than my predictions.

嗯，关于预测，你刚才谈到

I Well, the predictions, you've been talking

我厌倦了总是被当成看空者，被贴上看空者的标签。

about I am so tired of being a bear and being labeled a bear.

但从看空的角度来看，我们还没看到。

But to the bearish point of view, we haven't seen it.

我们还没看到所谓的硬着陆，今天之后会有很多人预测软着陆。

We have not seen that hard landing yet, and there's going to be many people after you today that are predicting a soft landing.

因此，如果你仍然相信硬着陆即将到来，那它什么时候会发生？

And so to the extent you still believe that a hard landing is ahead of us, when does it come?

那会是什么样子？

What does it look like?

我们还能看到它吗？

Do we see it anymore?

是的。

Yeah.

由于经济衰退尚未开始，许多人将预测从硬着陆改为软着陆，还有许多人从软着陆改成了无着陆。

A lot of people, because we haven't had an economic decline start yet, have changed their forecast from a hard landing to a soft landing, and a lot of others have changed it from soft landing to no landing.

我完全没有改变我的预测。

I haven't changed mine at all.

它尚未发生这一事实，并不会改变如果发生时其严重程度的概率。

The fact that it hasn't happened yet doesn't change the probability, if it does happen, of the depth of it.

我的意思是，疫情期间投入了10万亿美元的货币刺激和5万亿美元的财政刺激。

I mean, basically, $10,000,000,000,000.5000000000000 monetary, 5,000,000,000,000 fiscal was put in during COVID.

结果就是，这创造了一个巨大的流动性存量。

What has happened is that created this giant, giant stock of liquidity.

我认为吉米·戴蒙几年前说过，有2.5万亿美元的超额活期存款。

I think Jamie Dimon said a couple years ago there were 2 and a half trillion excess demand deposits.

我们一直在缓慢地消化这些流动性。

We've been working that liquidity off slowly.

当日本央行调整YCC时，这种流动性收缩被中断了。

That liquidity interruption liquidity shrink was interrupted when Bank of Japan changed YCC.

他们进场购买了4000亿美元的债券，以保护其债券市场。

They went in and they bought $400,000,000,000 worth of bonds to defend their bond market.

这是一种非常奇特的情况。

Very odd situation.

他们提高了利率，但随后流动性却急剧增加。

They raised rates, but then liquidity exploded on it.

然后显然是债务上限问题。

And then obviously the debt ceiling.

耶伦部长上周将TGA（财政部一般账户，本质上是财政部的储蓄账户）从7000亿美元削减到了几乎为零。

Secretary Yellen drew down the TGA, that's basically the Treasury savings account, from $700,000,000,000 to practically nothing last week.

这也导致了政府债务的发行减少，从而成为流动性的一大提振。

That also ended up in non issuance of government debt, so that was a big boost of liquidity.

现在这一切都即将改变。

All that is set to change now.

实际上，TGA即将走向相反的方向。

Actually, the TJ is going go the other way.

她已经表示希望将其恢复到正常水平。

She's already stated she wants to build it back up to normal levels.

因此，从现在到年底，你可能会看到大约8000亿美元的国债发行。

So you're going to have probably about $800,000,000,000 in treasuries issued between now and year end.

美联储将继续推进量化紧缩（QT）。

The Fed will be continuing on with QT.

你还有学生贷款的问题，我认为这一直支撑着消费。

You've got the student loan thing, which I think has kept consumption up.

这一切将在九月发生变化。

That's all changing in September.

他们实际上不得不——愿上帝保佑——美国真的有人开始为贷款支付利息了。

They're gonna have to actually, God forbid, The United States somebody actually pays interest on a loan.

所以对我来说，概率并没有改变。

So to me, the probabilities haven't changed.

只是预期被推迟了，但这件事尚未开始这一事实，并不能改变它将是硬着陆还是软着陆的概率。

It's been pushed out relative expectations, But in no way does the fact that it hasn't started yet change the probability of whether it's gonna be hard or soft.

我反而认为，由于拖延了这么久，美联储最终不得不接受更高的终端利率。

I would actually argue since it's taken so long, the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate.

事实上，通胀在系统中停留的时间越长，就越顽固，这反而增加了硬着陆的可能性，而不是降低。

And in fact, inflation gets stickier the long it stays in the system that it increases, not decreases, probably of a hard landing.

顺便说一句，1987年崩盘后，我坚信我们会陷入大萧条。

By the way, after the eighty seven crash, I was convinced we're gonna have depression.

所以我以前也错过判断，如果这次我错了，我会调整。

So I've been wrong before and if I'm wrong on this, I'll I'll adjust.

但我必须权衡各种概率，按照我的方法行事，而目前情况就是这样。

But I have to weigh the probabilities and do what I do with my process and right now that's where we are.

什么时候？

And when?

我认为，九月是我第一次有点担心经济过热和通胀的时期。

I have been I think September is the first time when I was sort of a boom afraid of booming economy inflation guy too.

我更担心的是增长，而不是通胀。

I'm more worried about growth than I am about inflation.

最初，我以为是2023年。

And originally, was '23.

我可能暂时脑子短路了，或者当硅谷事件发生时，我听了一些轶事，这些传统上会像卡车和零售业那样推高预期，现在被推迟了。

I temporarily maybe lost my mind or maybe I was ripe when the Silicon Valley thing happened and got anecdotals and stuff that has traditionally led like trucks and retail, move that up to now.

我觉得我可能错了，我会回到2023年的判断。

I think I'm probably wrong and I'm gonna go back to the '23.

但真正答案是，我不知道。

But the real answer is I don't know.

所以，无论是否衰退，有一件事很有趣，你提到很多人对市场的某些领域非常乐观，尤其是人工智能热潮。

So recession or no recession, though, one thing that's interesting, and you included, a lot of people are very encouraged by certain areas of the market, particularly the AI boom.

总有一些事情要做。

There's always stuff to do.

1974年和1975年化学和石油行业经历了硬着陆，但这些东西表现得很好。

We had a hard landing in '74, '75 in chemicals and oils and that stuff did great.

抱歉，你先说吧。

I'm sorry, go ahead and answer

你的问题。

your question.

那么，你认为人工智能在此次衰退中都能挺过去吗？还是说，人工智能领域的某些部分开始看起来像泡沫？

Well, do you think that all of AI makes it through this recession or do you think that some areas of the market, particularly in AI, start to look like they're in bubble territory?

无论是否出现衰退，不是所有人工智能公司都能挺过去，因为它们还没能分清哪些是真正的价值。

Well, all of AI is not going to make it through whether we have a recession or not because they haven't separated the wheat from the yet.

但我相信，与加密货币不同，人工智能是真实的。

But I do believe, unlike crypto, I think AI is real.

它可能像互联网一样具有变革性。

It's probably it could be as transformative as the Internet.

这是一件巨大的事。

It's it's a huge thing.

我认为我曾在公开场合论证过，如果史泰博在经济衰退期间价格还能上涨，那为什么像英伟达这样的公司不能呢？如果它们的订单和盈利在经济硬着陆时增长70%——这正是我预计可能发生的情况——那么即便估值很高，我也看不出英伟达为何会下跌。

And I think I've argued publicly that if Staples can go up in price in a recession, why can't a company like NVIDIA, if they go up if they go up, if their orders and earnings go up 70% in a hard landing, which is what I think would probably happening, it's not clear to me that NVIDIA goes down despite the lofty valuation level.

历史证明，如果你在经济衰退期间拥有非常强劲且可持续的盈利，而如果并非如此，市场最终会看清楚，这些股票的表现依然会很好。

History has proved if you do if you have very good earnings in a recession and they're sustainable, if they're not, the market somehow figures it out, those stocks will do just fine.

所以我们持有一些多头和空头头寸，过去五六个月，人工智能股票在我们的多头组合中占据了主导地位。

So we have some longs, we have some shorts, and the AIs have sort of dominated the long portfolio for five or six months.

你如何看待在这个市场中做空？

How do you think about going short in this market?

今年我们的空头头寸表现不错，唯独指数空头表现惨淡。

Our shorts have been fine this year, except by index shorts, which have been a disaster.

但我们做空的方式始终如一。

But we always short the same way.

我只是试图分析当前的情况，然后根据我的预测，设想十二到十八个月后可能出现的局面。

I just try and look at the current situation, and then I try and think of a situation twelve to eighteen months from now based on my forecast.

如果我认为证券价格会下跌，我就会做空它们。

And I think if I think the security prices are going to be less, then I short them.

说实话，我不确定我是否真的赚过钱。

Frankly, I'm not sure I've ever made money.

如果让我重来过去的四十年，我都不敢去看。

If I took back the last forty years, I'm afraid to look.

我从未有过亏损的年份，但我也不确定在做空上是否赚过钱。

I've never had a down year, but I'm not sure I've made money in shorts.

我喜欢这样。

I like it.

这很有趣，但你可能会输得惨不忍睹。

It's fun, but you can get your head handed to you.

这是一场只有专业人士才玩得起的游戏，而且数学上对你不利。

And it's a game that really only professionals and the math's against you.

如果你在做多时完全判断错误，可能会亏掉100%。

If you're if you're dead wrong on a long, you can lose a 100%.

如果你在做空时完全判断错误，可能会损失十倍的资金。

If you're dead wrong on a short, you can lose 10 times your money.

当我还在索罗斯基金时，我在1999年3月做空了价值两亿美元的互联网股票，三周内平仓时亏损了六亿美元。

And in when I was at Soros, I shorted $200,000,000 worth of Internet stocks in March '99, and in three weeks covered them at a $600,000,000 loss.

我在三周内，用两亿美元的投资亏损了六亿美元。

I lost $600,000,000 on a $200,000,000 investment in three weeks.

我做空了十二只股票。

I was short 12 stocks.

它们全部破产了，每一只都是。

They all went bankrupt, Every one of them.

别在家尝试这种操作。

Don't try that at home.

那么，说到这一点，当你观察当前人工智能的热潮时，从互联网泡沫中能学到什么教训吗？

So Well, I mean, to that to that point, when you look at the AI kind of boom here, are there lessons to be learned from the .com bubble?

是的。

Yeah.

这里确实有值得吸取的教训。

There are lessons there are definitely lessons to be learned.

不要情绪化。

Don't get emotional.

不要疯狂行事。

Don't get crazy.

但关于人工智能，我想说一点。

But I will I will say this about the AI.

英伟达在十月份触底，股价在一百多美元低位。

NVIDIA bottomed in October in the low 1 hundreds.

确实，它在3.80美元或390美元左右。

It's true it's $3.80 or three ninety.

现在已进入天价区间。

It's in nosebleed territory.

如果这是长期趋势，如果这真的属实，你就不可能有十个月的涨幅。

If this is a secular move, if this is if this thing is real, you just don't have ten month moves.

事情不是这样的。

That's not how it works.

即使是互联网泡沫也持续了两年到两年半。

Even the .com bubble lasted two, two and a half years.

对于互联网的核心公司，比如思科和太阳微系统，它持续了四年。

For many of the for many of the guts of the Internet, it lasted four years, the Ciscos, the Sun Micros.

那么，英伟达在短期内会不会从任何一点大幅下跌呢？

So could NVIDIA go down materially in the short term from any point?

会。

Yes.

但如果我对人工智能及其影响的判断是正确的，我会感到惊讶。

But I would be I would be surprised if I'm right on AI and the impact on it.

我的意思是，它已经让顶尖程序员的生产力比五个月前提高了七到八倍。

I mean, it's already making the top coders seven to eight times, seven to eight times more productive than they were five months ago.

如果它真像我想的那么大，英伟达就是我们至少要持有两三年、而不是十个月的股票。

If it's as big as I think it is, NVIDIA is something we're gonna wanna own for at least two or three years, not for ten months.

而且可能更久。

And maybe longer.

当然是当下的热门话题。

Certainly the topic du jour.

还有另一件事，许多投资者都在讨论。

There's another thing that a lot of investors are talking about.

那就是中国的前景。

It's the promise of China.

这个观点，现在该听听你的全球视角了，因为这么多人依赖你提供宏观见解。

This idea, and I it's time to get your global view here because so many people rely on you for for the macro perspective.

这里的观点是，中国的GDP增速将超过美国。

The view here is that the GDP in China will expand faster than The United States.

许多投资者基于这一理论，正在淡化地缘政治紧张局势。

And a lot of investors are kind of shaking off geopolitical tensions on the back of that theory.

你是否也看到中国看涨者所看到的同样前景？

Do you see the same promise that the China bulls are seeing?

我不这么认为。

I do not.

我曾经对中国非常着迷，直到大约六七年前。

I was in love with China until about six or seven years ago.

你去那里，上海的能量就像纽约打了兴奋剂一样。

You go over there and the energy in Shanghai was like New York on crack.

我的意思是，那种能量简直太棒了。

I mean just it's just fantastic energy.

那里的企业家令人振奋。

The entrepreneurs were exciting.

他们全情投入。

They were into it.

然后习近平做了他的事。

And then Xi Jinping did his thing.

如果你看看中国和中国的崛起，我认为这一切都发生了。

And if you look at China and the rise of China, I think it all sort of happened.

你曾经有一个内部的资本主义体系，里面有一群人像疯狂的纽约人一样，在充满活力的经济中创办新企业。

You had this internal capitalist system where there are a bunch of people that act like crazy New Yorkers building new businesses in a dynamic economy.

但他已经证明自己不是资本主义者。

But he has proved he's not a capitalist.

他绝对不是垄断者。

He's definitely not a monopolist.

在他看来，中国只容得下一个垄断者，那就是他自己。

There's only room for one monopolist in China in his mind, that's him.

任何人的脑袋要是敢冒出来。

Anybody that gets their heads stuck up.

我真心认为，他要么根本不理解中国为何能如此成功地崛起，要么干脆不在乎，因为就维持权力而言，但我如果放眼十年或十五年，我真的看不到前景。

And I honestly think he other either doesn't understand why China grew and succeeded the way they did, or frankly, doesn't care because in terms of staying in power, but I would be looking out ten or fifteen years, I just don't see it.

除非顶层权力发生变革，否则我认为中国经济将变得非常缺乏活力。

I unless there's a change in power there at the top, I think that's gonna be a very undynamic economy.

问题不在于地缘政治的担忧。

It's not so much the geopolitical concerns.

我要说，如果我是对的，这让我更担心军事行动，因为当独裁者需要转移对眼前问题的注意力时，他们会变得更加危险。

I will say this, that if I'm right, it makes me more fearful of military action because that's when dictators become more dangerous is when they've got to divert attention from the immediate problem.

所以他们现在所做的非常具有刺激性。

So what they're doing now is very stimulative.

我们预计会有一段糖分激增，可能在未来六到九个月内出现强劲增长。

We're expecting a sugar high and some kind of robust growth there maybe for six to nine months.

但放眼未来，我不认为他们在经济实力和增长方面对美国构成重大挑战。

But looking out, I'm I don't I do not look at them as as a big challenge in The United States in terms of economic power and growth.

同样地，也有很多投资者对日本的未来提出了疑问。

There's equally been a lot of investor questions about the future of Japan as well.

你如何看待日本的投资机会以及如何布局？

How do you think about the opportunity set and how to invest?

当我去日本时，就像被火箭助推一样，我在日经指数见顶时做了空。

When I went to Sauros, Japan like set me off like a rocket ship because I shorted the Nikkei at the top.

我当时什么都有，但后来五年内，我每笔在日本的交易都亏了钱。

I I had everything and then I think every trade I made like five years later on I've lost money in Japan.

这是历史上最大的价值陷阱，但我要说，目前我还没核实过，但今年它无疑经历了最深的调整，也迎来了最好的市场表现。

It's been the biggest value trap in history, but I will say right now I I haven't checked this, but it's it's by far been the the deepest breath and the best market this year.

是的。

Yeah.

我们的市场上涨了，我想你说的是12%，但其实只是七只股票在涨，其他几乎都没涨。

Our market's up, I think you said 12%, but it's like seven socks and everything else is not even up.

在日本可不是这样。

That's not the case in Japan.

那里市场的广度非常可观。

The breadth is tremendous there.

你正在看到几件事情同时发生。

You have a couple of things going on.

他们看起来正在解决通缩问题，因此实现了名义增长。

They look like they're solving deflation plus, so you're getting nominal growth.

而且，这不仅仅是说说而已。

They've also, it's more than just talk.

他们非常注重股东价值。

They're really into the whole shareholder value thing.

然后你有一个负责货币政策的人，他说话的样子就像两年前的杰罗姆·鲍威尔。

And then you've got a guy running monetary policy, and he sounds like Jerome Powell two years ago.

我的意思是，那里的通胀正在飙升，但他却说，我们还没完全实现目标，尽管他已经把原本设定的目标翻了一倍。

I mean, inflation's taking off there, and he's saying, we haven't quite achieved our goal yet, even though he's like doubled his goal that is stated.

所以把这些因素综合起来，目前来看，这是一个充满活力的市场。

So you put all that together, for now you have a dynamic market.

但鉴于我过往的交易记录，日本在未来十五年应该会跟我所说的相反。

But given my record trading, Japan now the last fifteen years should do the opposite of what I say.

回到美国，我答应过你要谈政治。

Back to The United States, I promised you politics.

因为财政政策很快就会超越货币政策，尤其是当我们展望即将到来的2024年美国大选周期时。

So we're we're gonna get You know, because the fiscal will overtake the the monetary pretty soon as well, especially as we look forward to a twenty twenty four election cycle in The United States.

当你看到众多共和党潜在候选人，他们要么正在挑战唐纳德·特朗普，要么可能挑战他。

And when you look at the wide range of republican hopefuls who are either challenging or may challenge Donald Trump.

妮基·黑利、克里斯·克里斯蒂、迈克·彭斯、罗恩·德桑蒂斯、蒂姆·斯科特、格伦·杨金。

Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Glenn Youngkin.

你支持谁？你投谁一票？

Who has your money and who has your vote?

我非常喜欢蒂姆·斯科特。

I love Tim Scott.

我希望他能成为下一任总统。

I'd like him to be the next president.

不管他知名度够不够，或者他是不是太温和了，不适合这场斗争，我不确定。

Whether he has a name recognition, whether he's too nice a guy for this fight, I don't know.

但我真的不喜欢制造分裂的人。

But I'm not really into dividers.

我希望看到国家团结一致。

I'd like to see the country united.

我认为在那个政党里，他是最有可能实现这一目标的人。

And I think from that party, he's the one that could probably most accomplish that.

我对克里斯·克里斯蒂挑战唐纳德·特朗普感到相当兴奋。

I'm kind of excited about Chris Christie taking on Donald Trump.

其他人则避而不谈这个话题。

The others kind of, like, dance around the subject.

他们甚至都不提他的名字。

They don't even use his name.

我觉得需要有人用他对待别人的方式回击他，而克里斯·克里斯蒂在这方面可能非常在行。

I think somebody needs to hit him in the mouth with the way he hits people in the mouth, and Chris Christie could be very good at that.

我对他在2016年处理事情的方式感到非常失望。

I was very disappointed the way he handled the 2016 thing.

对于那些不了解的人，我曾在电视上对约翰·卡西奇说，唐纳德·特朗普对美国经济的理解就像幼儿园水平，一年后我又出来承认，我高估了他的经济能力。

For those who don't know it on national television, I said that Donald Trump had the economic understanding of a kindergarten of The US economy on national television with John Kasich, then I came out a year later and said I overestimated his economic standing.

所以只是让你知道，我不是没说过。

So just so you were not no.

但不管怎样，我不觉得克里斯·克里斯蒂能赢，但我很兴奋他参选了，因为我觉得他或许能揭露唐纳德·特朗普，而他确实需要被揭露。

But anyway, I don't think Chris Christie can win, but I'm excited that he's getting in the race because I think he can maybe expose Donald Trump and he really needs to be exposed.

那你对其他一些候选人怎么看，尤其是罗恩·德桑蒂斯？

So what do you think about some of the other candidates, especially Ron DeSantis?

你知道，他在佛罗里达州对待企业的方式，你认为这对他在参选时意味着什么？

You know, the way that he has approached corporations in Florida in particular, what do you think that means for him as he enters the race?

实际上，我认为直到最近，他在佛罗里达州的表现都非常出色。

I actually think until recently he did a great job in Florida.

如果你看看他的政绩，他非常聪明。

If you look at the record, he's very smart.

但他身边的人才范围并不广。

Not that broad in terms of the people around him.

他需要在参选前建立起这样一支团队。

He'd have to build that going in.

但尽管他聪明，他的策略似乎是要争取特朗普的选民。

But despite his intelligence, it seems like his calculus is to go after the Trump voters.

我认为特朗普的选民并不关心政策。

I don't think the Trump voters care about policy.

我认为他们不会被说服。

I don't think they can be moved.

通过争取特朗普的选民，他正在疏远另外百分之三十到四十的选民，尤其是那些非常关注社会议题的女性和其他群体。

And by going after the Trump voters, he's alienating the other 30 to 40% of the pie, particularly women and others that, care a lot about the social issues.

他不是我最欣赏的人，但坦白说，如果他和乔·拜登对决，我会热情地投他一票。

He's not my he's not my favorite, but, frankly, if he ran against Joe Biden, I'd vote for him enthusiastically.

我很好奇，你也把自己定义为独立人士吗？

I wonder you define yourself as an independent as well.

你过去投过民主党的票，那现在有谁……

Is there anybody in the and you voted for Democrats in the past.

民主党里有谁让你感到兴奋吗？

Is there anyone in the Democratic party that excites you?

如果吉娜·雷蒙多参选，我会非常高兴，但显然我们要推一个80岁、即将迈入百岁的人上台。

Well, I'd love it if Gina Raimondo would run, but apparently, we're gonna put an 80 year old who's going on a 100 up on the ticket.

我不明白民主党到底在做什么。

I I don't understand what the Democrats are doing.