贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder讨论就业报告与美联储主席

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就在不到一小时前发布了最新的就业数据，从中传递出一些矛盾的信息。

After the latest jobs numbers, came out just under an hour ago, some mixed messaging coming from it.

你关注的是哪些方面？

Where do you concentrate on?

让我们邀请黑石全球固定收益首席投资官里克·雷德加入讨论。

Let's bring in BlackRock's chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income, Rick Reeder.

里克，早上好，很高兴见到你。

And, Rick, great to see you this morning.

感谢你加入我们。

Thanks for joining us.

你肯定已经仔细研究过这些数据了。

Sure you've been pouring over the numbers.

重点在哪里？

What is the concentration?

是增长低于预期吗？

Is it growth that comes in less than expected?

是十月、十一月的修正数据，还是失业率现在仅处于4.4%？

Is it the revisions for October, November, or is an unemployment rate now just at 4.4%?

所以我认为迈克·麦基萨说得对，美联储确实谈到了失业率。

So I think Mike McKeesa was right in that, you know, the the the Fed talked about the unemployment rate.

我得告诉你，我对这个问题有不同的看法。

I have to tell you, I have a different take on it.

我认为我们讨论的是5万个工作岗位，而此前的修正数据下调了超过7万个岗位。

I think there is a we're talking about 50,000 jobs and then there was a revision down over 70,000 jobs.

如果我们现在来看增长情况。

If you take we're growing now.

如果看过去六个月的移动平均值，并剔除医疗保健岗位，过去六个月除医疗保健外的就业岗位实际上是负增长，而医疗保健属于非周期性、对利率不敏感的行业。

If you go to last six months moving average, if you take out health care jobs, we're actually running negative jobs for, for the last six months away from health care, which is noncyclical, not interest rate sensitive.

实际上，如果回溯八个月，剔除医疗保健后的净就业岗位为负21.3万个。

Actually, if you go back eight months, the total net jobs is negative 213,000 jobs net of health care.

我认为正在发生的是，我们经历了一场规模空前的生产率革命，经济正在以相当强劲的势头增长，但我们就是不需要那么多人。

What I think is is going on is we have a productivity revolution of extraordinary proportion, that we have an economy that's growing at a quite robust rate, but we just don't need the people.

我知道当人们说，嗯，他们关注的是这可能是6万、7万还是8万个就业岗位时。

And I and I know I know when people say, well, you know, they were they were focused on could this be 60,000 jobs, 70,000 jobs, 80,000 jobs.

如果你回溯到2021年，那时是疫情之后。

If you go back to 2021, now that was post COVID.

我们当时每月新增60万个就业岗位。

We're running 600,000 jobs.

从2020年之后出现了大幅回落。

Now big pullback from '20.

但在2022年，每月新增38万个就业岗位。

But then in '22, 380,000 jobs a month.

2022年，

2022,

你现在每月新增21.7万个就业岗位。

you're running 217,000 jobs.

2023年，抱歉，你当时是。

2323, you were running sorry.

2024年，你每月新增17万个工作岗位。

'24, you're running a 170,000

工作岗位。

jobs.

我们说的是去年，仅新增了5万个岗位。

We're talking about last year, ran 50,000 jobs.

扣除医疗行业后，零新增岗位。

Net of health care, no jobs.

今年，你的情况是，我们刚刚看到5万个岗位，其中3.9万个来自医疗行业。

This year, you're running at at a number where we just saw 50,000, 39,000 was in health care.

重点是，这也是为什么我认为利率工具对医疗行业影响不大。

Point being, and part of why that I, you know, I think the interest rate tool doesn't really affect health care.

对教育行业也影响不大，而教育是就业市场的另一个部分。

And doesn't really affect education, which was another part of the job market.

意思是，我们认为我们只是正在经历一场生产力革命。

Meaning, think we're just seeing a productivity revolution.

我的意思是，分解这些数据，仔细看看，这相当非凡。

I mean, break down the numbers, really look at it, it's pretty extraordinary.

我认为，在这背后，劳动力动态非常显著。

And I think the labor dynamic is quite significant on the backside of that.

你在哪儿看到这一点，里克？

Where do you see that, Rick?

因为我刚刚听了《Odd Lots》播客，那是Joe和Tracy与高盛的Jan Hatsias做的节目。

Because I was just listening to Odd Lots, the Odd Lots podcast that Joe and Tracy do with Jan Hatsias from Goldman Sachs.

他说，人工智能为增长带来了大约20个基点的生产力提升，而他们的新任首席股票策略师本·斯奈德表示，在全部500家标普公司中，只有六家能够量化出人工智能带来的生产力提升。

He says that AI has added about 20 basis points of productivity to growth and their new chief incoming chief equity strategist Ben Snyder said out of all 500 S and P companies, only six have been able to quantify added productivity from AI.

所以我经常听到这些说法，也看到相关股票飙升。

So I hear about it all the time, and I see the stocks soaring.

但没错。

But Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我们有什么证据表明这些工具真正提高了生产力？

What's the evidence that we have actually increased productivity with these tools?

顺便说一下，简说得对，一如既往。

So by the way, Jan's right as normal.

和往常一样。

The as usual.

我要说一件事。

The the I I will say one thing.

人们喜欢把生产力归结为一个两个字母的词：AI。

People like to take take productivity and say, oh, it must be a two letter word AI.

AI正在到来。

AI is coming.

顺便说一下，机器人技术、自动化以及其他形式的生产力也在到来。

By the way, so is robotics, is automation, so are those forms of productivity.

但如果你回看过去两年，我在一次通话中做过分析，涉及物流、库存管理、客户采购、货运——你如何使用货运，管理库存的效率，以及管理应收账款的效率。

But if you go back the last two years, and I broke it down on a call we did, logistics, inventory management, the customer procurement, freight freight, how you use freight, efficiency of how you manage your inventory, efficiency of how you manage your receivables.

如今每家公司都在运行，为什么收入增长是个不错的地方？

Every company today is running why why is revenue growth a decent place?

但真正发生的是，利润增长极为显著。

But what's really happening is earnings growth is spectacular.

利润增长之所以如此显著，是因为你降低了成本结构。

Earnings growth is spectacular because you're reducing your cost infrastructure.

销售成本、销售和管理费用正在下降，因为你找到了更好的方式来运营你的业务，你正在使用软件、云服务、库存管理工具等。

Cost of goods sold, s g and a are coming down because you've come up with a better way to actually run your business, and you're using software, cloud, inventory management tools, etcetera.

所以我认为人工智能正在到来，而且它加速了这场生产力繁荣。

So I think AI is coming, and I think it accelerates what is a productivity boom.

但我同意你的观点。

But I agree with you.

我同意简所说的话。

I agree with what Jan said.

今天，这并不是AI。

Today, it's not AI.

顺便说一下，你知道，你看一下并购日程表，我认为至少它将继续保持强劲。

And by the way, you know you know, you look at the m and a calendar, and which I think will continue to be robust to say the least.

为什么你会看到这么多并购？

Why will you see so much m and a?

其中一些是出于切实的业务激励。

Some of it, you have business incentives that are real.

还有一些是企业试图构建护城河、积累更多数据等。

Some of it is you have businesses trying to build a moat, create more data, etcetera.

其中很大一部分是协同效应，也就是说，我可以扩大公司规模，实现规模效应，并降低我的成本体系。

A lot of it is synergistic, I e, I can grow my company, I can build scale, and I can reduce my cost ecosystem.

这意味着就业机会会减少。

And that, know, what that means is is fewer jobs.

我认为我们正在见证这一切。

And I think we're watching it.

我认为这个故事并不模糊。

And I I don't think the story is ambiguous.

我认为这个故事非常清晰。

I think the story is is quite clear.

我们面临着一个劳动力动态问题

We have a labor dynamic

对。

Right.

这个问题很棘手。

That is tricky.

顺便说一下，这是一个低技能的问题。

And by the way, it's a lower skilled problem.

这是一个城市问题。

It's an urban problem.

我认为这是原因之一，因此我一直坚持认为，利率需要再低一些，因为我认为这涉及的是低技能群体。

It's a that I that I think is, you know, part of why I think you know, I've been pretty adamant that I think the funds rate needs to be I think interest rates need to be a bit lower because I think it's lower skilled.

我觉得这是低收入群体。

I think it's low low income.

我觉得是那些处于当前艰难局面边缘的小企业。

I think it's small business that are on the backside of what is a tough dynamic today.

我想谈谈这一点，我知道丹尼也想讨论利率问题。

I I wanna get to that, and I know Danny does too in terms of rates.

但我想谈谈你认为我们需要做什么来增加就业，因为我们目前零移民，人口正接近下降。

But I wanna get to what you think we need in terms of adding jobs because we have, you know, zero immigration and we're close to a population declining.

这个国家的孩子越来越少了。

We're not having kids in this country.

所以，是的。

So Yeah.

在我看来，4.4%的失业率，尤其是在3.8%的工资增长背景下，看起来还不错。

To me, 4.4% unemployment, you know, in that picture, especially with 3.8% wage growth, that looks good.

顺便说一下，4.4%的失业率相比我们过去的情况显著上升了。

So so by the way, it's 4.4 trending significantly higher from where we where we used to be.

顺便说一下，我认为如果你退一步看，4.4%根本不是危机，这绝对不是危机。

And by the way, I would argue if you took a step back and said, gosh, 4.4 is not a crisis, unequivocal that that's not a crisis.

首先，这个趋势并不是一个好故事。

The trend isn't isn't a good story, number one.

其次，我们正面临一种动态变化，我认为当人们说这是供给问题、是移民问题时，其实并非如此。

Number number two, we have a dynamic, and I, you know, I think when people say it's a supply, that it's an immigration dynamic.

如果你看一下需求端，尤其是本周关于职位空缺的JOLTS数据以及其趋势，就会明白。

If you look at the demand function, and it's all you'd look at the jolt state of this week around job openings and you look at the trend there.

而且，我并不是说我们现在正处于就业危机中。

And, again, I'm not saying we're we're in a jobs crisis today.

但如果你退一步，想看看大局，回溯2022年、2023年、2024年创造了多少就业岗位，然后剔除疫情的影响，

But if you took a step back and said, gosh, I wanna look at the big picture and I go back to where we were in terms of what jobs are created in '22, '23, '24, we could strip out the COVID dynamic.

然后你就会问：我们未来将走向何方？

And then you say, where are we going?

从劳动力的角度来看，我们正在走向一个让我感到有些担忧的境地。

Where we're going is a place from a labor perspective that I think is a is a bit is a bit concerning.

我认为，你知道的，作为一个人的观点，你必须有点前瞻性。

And I think, you know, one woman's opinion, I think you have to be a bit anticipatory.

我们已经谈论这个问题九个月了，你知道，利率曾经是4.25%到4.5%。

We've been talking about this, you know, for nine months where where you know, the funds rate was at four and three a's.

顺便说一句，我不认为我们需要走到那一步。

And by the way, don't I don't you know, I just think I don't think we need to go that far.

我认为我们需要把利率降到3%左右。

I think we gotta get the funds rate down a bit to 3%.

我们每个月在这个节目里都在谈论这一点。

We've been talking about that on every month on this show.

我只是觉得我们必须达到这个水平，因为我认为这就是今天的均衡利率。

And I just think you gotta get there because I think that's the equilibrium rate today.

里克，我只是想知道，即使你达到了这个水平，这如何改变你所说的这些宏观趋势呢？

Rick, I I just wonder though, even if you get there, how does that change these these very macro trends you're talking about?

我的意思是，这并不会改变这种向生产力提升的推动。

I mean, that doesn't change this push to productivity.

这并不能限制人工智能及其取代工人的能力。

That doesn't put a cap on AI and maybe its ability to replace workers.

所以，如果你降低利率，这次对劳动力市场的影响并不会那么大。

So if you lower rates, doesn't really have as big of an impact on the labor market this time around.

所以，答案是你对的。

So the the answer is you're right.

而且，美联储创造就业，美联储只有一个工具来创造吗？

And it and it's like, the Fed create jobs and the Fed have one tool to create?

而且，这个说法是美联储只有一个工具。

And, you know, this argument the Fed has one tool.

顺便说一下，这不仅仅是美联储的问题。

And by the way, it's not just the Fed.

实际上，我认为你所描述的大部分内容需要通过财政举措来实现。

I actually think most of what you're describing needs to be accomplished through fiscal initiatives.

顺便说一下，最近关于房地产市场有很多新闻。

And so by the way, you know, obviously a lot of news recently about the housing market.

我认为房地产市场是一个非常深远的动态。

Well, I think the housing market is such a profound dynamic.

这就是为什么我认为这种影响如此重要，顺便说一下，我其实并不认为联邦基金利率那么关键。

And part of why I think that influence is so significant and by the way, I actually don't think the FUD Fed funds rate is that critical.

我认为你需要控制的是长期利率，因为你必须降低抵押贷款利率。

I think it's longer term interest rates you gotta keep down because you gotta get the mortgage rate down.

如果我们让房地产市场活跃起来，会发生什么？

What happens if we get housing moving?

如果你让房地产市场活跃起来，就能增强劳动力的流动性。

If you get housing moving, you create more labor mobility.

你看到另一个州、另一个城市的工作机会，就可以搬过去。

You you see a job, I mean, in another state, another city, you can move.

这很重要。

That's important.

我们每建造一栋新房，就会创造3.1个工作岗位，这些岗位来自建房的工人。

We create every every house built in this country creates 3.1 jobs from people building houses.

这会创造就业，顺便说一下，如今用人工智能来建房是很困难的。

That creates and it's, by the way, it's hard to AI building a house today.

这会带来就业的改善。

That creates an an improvement in employment.

然后我认为，在技术等方面还有一系列其他因素，我认为大部分都属于财政层面。

And then I think there's a whole series of other things around technology, etcetera, that I think most of it on the fiscal side.

但我同意你的观点。

But I agree with you.

我认为这就是趋势。

I think that is the trend.

那么我们再回过头说，好吧。

So then you go back and say, okay.

那么，相对于这种情况，均衡利率是多少？

So then what is the equilibrium rate of interest relative to that?

如果通胀盈亏平衡点是2.3%，而新预测的通胀率显然得到了有效控制。

If inflation breakevens are 2.3% and inflation projections by new mesh are certainly well contained.

我觉得我不知道。

And I think I don't know.

我的意思是，是的，我们正经历一场生产力革命。

My point being is, yes, we have a productivity revolution.

利率工具很难解决这个问题，但我认为有一系列措施可以缓解当前的问题以及更大的问题。

It's hard for the interest rate tool to solve it, but I think there's a whole series of things that can ameliorate some of what is a problem today and a bigger bigger problem.

我是里克·雷德。

Rick Reeder here.

黑石全球固定收益首席投资官，这非常有趣。

BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income, and this is so interesting.

我的意思是，特朗普总统不仅本周表示不希望史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼这样的个人再购买房屋，也不希望任何机构买家购买房屋。

I mean, president Trump not only has he this week said he doesn't want like Steve Schwartzman buying homes anymore or any institutional buyers of of homes.

同时，我认为中国国家主席习近平提醒我们，住房是用来住的，不是用来炒的。

At the same time, I think president Xi of China reminds us that homes are for living not investments.

而你现在看到特朗普总统正在实施椭圆办公室量化宽松政策，命令他在房利美和房地美的手下购买2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。

And and you've got president Trump now doing Oval Office QE, like telling his guys at Fannie and Freddie to buy $200,000,000,000 of mortgage backed securities.

这有帮助吗，里克？

Does this help, Rick?

你认为你刚才提到的住房危机吗？

You think the the housing crisis that you were talking about?

我的意思是，我不会对具体举措发表评论。

So I mean, I don't wanna I won't comment on a specific initiative.

我唯一想说的是，我认为我们有一些东西。

The only thing I will I will say is there's something I think we have.

我认为住房是关键的。

I think housing is pivotal.

顺便说一下，我通常认为人们低估了这个国家三分之二的财富集中在居民住房这一事实。

By the way, I normally think people underestimate how important three quarters of the wealth in this country by people is in their home.

顺便说一下，年轻人是通过住房来积累财富的。

By the way, young people build wealth is through their home.

顺便说一下，我本来应该被翻译的。

The way the normal by the way, I I would have been translated.

我本应提到我展示过关于生育率、婚姻水平等的图表。

I would have been related to I've shown a chart on fertility rates, marriage levels, etcetera.

我认为，如果今天的住房市场更加充裕，其影响远比人们想象的要强烈得多。

I think housing, if you have what is today, what is a more abundant housing market, I think the impact is is significantly more intense than people think.

因此，我认为任何推动这一进程的举措——财政方面，显然降低抵押贷款利率——都是有帮助的。

So any of the initiatives, I think, to move it, I think fiscal, I think, obviously, moving the mortgage rate, I think, is helpful.

顺便说一句，你不需要把利率调得那么低。

And by the way, don't think you have to move it that far.

你知道，我们非常密切地跟踪抵押贷款的提前还款数据，正如你所见。

You know, we see we track prepayments reads on mortgages, as you saw, very, very closely.

如果你把抵押贷款利率降到5.5%到6%，你会发现，随着利率下降，住房市场的活跃度显著提升。

If you get the mortgage rate to 5 and a half to six, you've seen it by the way as the mortgage rate has come down, you create more velocity in in in terms of housing moving.

你可以在现有房屋销售量的回升中看到这一点。

You see it in existing home sales picking up.

所以，无论如何，我认为情况就是这样。

So anyway, I think that's the case.

我认为，如果能把抵押贷款利率再降低一点，顺便说一下，我觉得只需要将十年期国债利率下调25到40个基点就够了。

And I think if you get the mortgage rate down a bit, and, and by the way, I only think you need to get ten year treasuries down 25, thirty, forty base points.

所以就保持在那个水平。

So just keep them there.

保持利率波动性处于低位。

Keep vol keep rate volatility down.

在财政方面，我认为可以做一些非常积极的举措，我同意，这可能是我们今天能做的最重要事情之一。

And then with fiscal, I think you do some pretty positive things, and I agree that it's arguably one of the most important things we could do today.

嘿，里克。

Hey, Rick.

有没有人讨论过如何提高生育率？

Does anybody ever talk about getting their fertility rate up?

为什么我们不提供一些激励措施来鼓励多生孩子呢？

Like, why don't we put some carrots out there to create more kids?

所以，我不确定。

So the I don't know.

我不知道你知不知道这件事。

I don't know if you know this.

实际上，今天我成了你的祖父，所以这是

I'm actually becoming your grandfather today, So that's

恭喜你，里克。

Congratulations, Rick.

不。

No.

所以我想顺便说一下，马特，我不知道你知不知道，我多年前在你节目上时曾庆祝过纪念日。

So I think by the way, Matt, I don't if you know this, but I I had my anniversary once when I was on your show many years ago.

所以我觉得，我所有重要的时刻都是在和你们谈话时发生的。

So I think all my big events come when I'm when I'm talking to y'all.

所以和你们在一起，本，确实有些美好的事情。

So I I there's something good there, Ben, being with y'all.

所以不管怎样，我我

So anyway, I I

对我们来说是好事，但我猜你在家里遇到麻烦了。

Good for us, but you're in trouble at home, I imagine.

是的。

Yeah.

没错，我差不多快了。

That's that is well, I'm close.

我觉得有几件事正在发生。

The I think there's a couple of things that are that are play.

我的意思是，我觉得这是对的。

I mean, I do think it's right.

我觉得如果年轻人看看学生贷款的话。

I do think if you have young people look at the student loan.

如今有30%的学生贷款正在偿还中。

30% of student loans are in repayment today.

这简直难以置信。

That is unbelievable.

这个数据令人难以置信。

That stat is unbelievable.

年轻人过得很难。

Young people having a hard time.

顺便说一下，你看看现在的青年失业率，我认为已经上升到8.5%，甚至可能更高。

By the way, you look at the youth unemployment rates now up, I think it's eight and a half percent, maybe a little bit higher than that.

年轻人毕业时，你看到密歇根大学或其他一些调查显示，大学毕业正经历着整整一代人中最艰难的时期。

Young people graduating, you saw it was at UMich or one of the surveys that showed people graduating college, it's the toughest time in in literally a generation.

所以听好了。

So listen.

我觉得有些事情。

I think there's some things.

我觉得这些事情有很大关联，而且我认为，很多问题都与我们制造的困境有关，就像丹尼之前提出的问题，那真是切中要害。

I think a lot of this is related, and I think a lot of this is, you know, if we create an issue, think to Danny's question before that, that was dead right.

确实有一些事情，你知道，就是很难对抗的。

There is something that, you know, that that are just hard to to to fight against.

但我认为有一系列我们可以做的事情，这些事将改善很多方面。

But I think there's a series of things that I think that that that can be done, that will improve a bunch of things.

顺便说一下，关键在于名义GDP必须保持高位，因为我国的债务负担很重。

And by the way, the thing that is critical, nominal GDP has to be high because we have a debt burden in this country that is large.

如果我们保持名义GDP高位，继续创造更多就业，提升名义GDP数值，就能缓解债务负担。

And if we keep nominal GDP high, we keep employing more people, you bring that nominal GDP number up, which diffuses the debt burden.

里克，如果我们聊聊你的另一个孩子，我知道它不如你的孙子重要，但对这些市场来说仍然很重要。

Rick, if we could talk about your other child, which I realize is less important than your grandchild, but still important for these markets.

那就是银行。

It is bank.

马特已经指出，增长最快的活跃型ETF。

Matt has pointed this out, the fastest growing active ETF.

你谈的是一段历史性的规模。

You're talking about some size of history.

历史性的变化和

Changes in history and

这个世界。

the world.

非常庞大。

Is huge.

它存在

It's there's

所以更多

so more

ETF的数量比股票还多。

ETFs than stocks.

而且一个

And a

也有很多主动型ETF。

lot of active ETFs too.

这是一件大事。

So that is a big deal.

而且我假设你需要为重大变化做好准备，比如利率下降，或者抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的变化，我知道这正是其中的一部分。

And you're I'm assuming you're gonna have to position this for big changes, lower rates, maybe changes with MBSs, which or mortgage backed securities, which I know is part of this.

也可能涉及关税裁定，这同样可能影响债券市场的走向。

Maybe a tariff ruling, which could also change what this bond market does.

这让我想到一个观众提出的问题，有人写信问了。

And and this brings me to a viewer question that someone wrote in.

2026年，曲线的哪个部分是获得总回报的最佳投资位置？

What is the best part of the curve that is the best place to invest for total return in 2026?

里克，你是如何将这个想法融入2026年的银行业策略中的？

How are you thinking incorporating that idea into bank in 2026, Rick?

顺便说一句，每当看到显示银行股价上涨的图表时，总是很有趣，因为那张图根本没显示股息收益率。

By the way, it's always funny when the the the chart that goes up that shows the price of bank, it doesn't show the dividend yield.

我的工作就是尽可能创造更多的股息收益和收入。

We're you know, my job is to create as much dividend yield and as much as much income as possible.

听我说，我觉得，顺便说一句，人们总有个有趣的问题，比如：为什么他说利率应该下调？

Listen, I think, you know, there's something by by the way, there's always an interesting thing about, like and people say, like, why is he saying that the funds rate should come down?

他一定另有企图。

He must have an ulterior motive.

我实际上并不希望利率下调。

I actually don't want the funds rate.

事实上，我不希望利率下降，因为从商业角度看，这些收益率非常可观。

In fact, I don't want interest rates to come down because, commercially, these yields are phenomenal.

我的意思是，这些收益率能为投资组合创造收入，我们通过保持高质量并坚持，比如，我认为保持低单A评级，就能在不到四年久期的情况下实现6.25%到6.5%的收益率，这相当惊人。

I mean, these yields to create income in a portfolio, and we can create six six and a quarter, six and a half percent yield by being and and staying high quality and staying, you know, I think I think think is running a a low single a rating, which is pretty amazing with a with a less than four year duration.

无论如何，如果我们能保持这个收益率，那该怎么做呢？

Anyway, if we can just keep that yield up, you know, what so what do you do to do that?

你得稍微减少一些。

You reduce a little bit.

我们已经减少了一点高收益债券。

We've reduced a little bit of high yield.

我们略微增加了新兴市场的配置。

We've increased a bit of emerging markets.

我们认为美元的走势是受控的。

We think the dollar the dollar is contained.

我们曾在节目中提到过，我们很喜欢抵押贷款，今天它们有相当大的变动。

We did we have talked about on the show, we like mortgages Quite a move today.

我不知道。

I don't know.

在这些水平上，我不确定。

I don't know at these levels.

但你知道，提高质量，你仍然可以在投资组合中获得相当可观的收益，并且实现全球化配置。

But but, you know, increase your quality, and you could still run yield that is that is pretty significant in the portfolio and and be global.

看看全球的利率，尤其是欧洲，作为美元投资者，这非常有吸引力。

Like, look at an interest rates around the world, particularly Europe, where you're gonna as a dollar investor is quite attractive.

顺便问一下，随着你这么快地增长，我们刚刚看了埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯的推文，我觉得他无疑是全球最受尊敬的ETF分析师。

Is it by the way, as you grow this quickly, we were just looking at the Eric Balchunas tweet there, and I have to think he's the foremost ETF analyst most respected ETF analyst in the world.

随着规模扩大，管理起来会更困难吗？还是这个市场太大了，根本不可能变得那么大？

Is it more difficult as it grows to manage, or is it just such a huge space that you can't get that that big?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，顺便说一下，你得考虑规模问题。

I mean, so by the way, you know, it does you think about in size.

我的意思是，这是个非常好的问题。

It's I mean, it's a fantastic question.

这涉及几个方面。

This is a couple of things.

首先，抵押贷款之所以变得更有趣，是因为它们流动性很强，而且这个市场的规模非常庞大。

First of all, part of why mortgages become more interesting is because they because they're so liquid and the size of that market is is is so expansive.

不过，当你规模变大时，也会想到投资组合中其他可以做的事情，比如我们可以做一些更定制化的操作。

You do think about other things, though, as you get larger that you can do in your portfolio where we can you know, we do a little bit more bespoke.

你知道，我们通常保持高度流动性，但由于规模大，我们也能做一些更定制化的内容。

You know, we tend to keep this very liquid, but we can do a little bit more bespoke because of the size of it.

因此，这为我们提供了更多的灵活性。

So that gives us gives us a little bit more flexibility.

但有些市场是很明确的，比如CLO市场或其他市场，你会思考在某些市场上想做到多大。

But there are some markets that are that are clear, like the CLO market or others that you think about, you know, how big do you wanna be in certain markets.

所以随着规模扩大，确实会有一些演变。

So you do it does evolve a little bit at scale.

我认为有很多因素让这件事变得更容易做。

I think there's a lot of things that make it make it easier, to do it.

总的来说，规模大一点确实更容易一些，但你确实会根据管理方式做一些调整。

I'd say on balance, it's a little bit easier at scale, But but you do you do evolve it a bit in terms of how you're managing it for sure.

里克，如果今天最高法院对IEPA做出裁决，而我们的收入没有预期那么多，且该计划被裁定为非法，你如何看待当前的定位？你会看到哪些变化？

Rick, how are you thinking about positioning heading into what might be a decision today on IEPA from the Supreme Court if we don't have as much revenue coming in and if it is ruled illegal, what kind of changes could you see to this curve?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个很好的问题。

It's a it's a great question.

首先，有几点要说明。

And so so first of all, a couple of things.

你知道，这个问题已经存在一段时间了。

You know, this has been out there for a while.

我的意思是，无论今天还是它公布的时候。

I mean, whether it's today or or when it comes out.

你知道，我想说一件事。

You know, I will say I will say one thing.

我的意思是，我们买入了——包括最近——大量股市的波动率，因为坦率地说，股市的波动率很便宜，而我认为利率市场的波动率很高。

I mean, we buy you know, I and including recently, we buy a lot of volatility in the equity market because, well, quite frankly, volatility is cheap in the equity market, whereas I think it's high in the rates market.

但我们买入了大量波动率。

But we buy a lot of volatility.

最近，随着波动率下降，正如你们所有人提到的那样。

We have been recently as volatility has come down as you all have talked about.

股价上涨，波动率下降。

You've had stocks go up, volatility comes down.

因此，我们已经建立了相当多的保护头寸，正如人们所理解的那样。

So we have built a a decent amount of protection in as people interpret it.

你知道吗，我以前在你的节目中提到过，我倾向于关注收益率曲线的前端到中段，尤其是在这种数据公布之后，它们会稍微变得便宜一些。

You know, I've talked about on your show before, I tend to like the front to the belly of the yield curve, particularly after a number like this, and they cheapen it up a little bit.

你知道，收益率曲线的长期端并不太吸引人，因为它带来的波动性太大。

You know, the long end of the yield curve, not that interesting because of the volatility it gives you.

所以，围绕边缘有几件事，天啊，你能再多持有一些收益率曲线的前端到中段吗？

So so a few things around the edges around, gosh, can you keep can you hold a bit more front to belly of the yield curve?

你能多买一些波动性，来对冲一些下行风险吗？

Can you buy a bit more volatility, protect some downside?

在固定收益领域，人们可能会说，暂时先转向更高品质的资产，等局势明朗一些再说。

And and people talk about in fixed income, maybe you go a little bit higher quality for the time being and wait for things to play through.

你知道，我们之前请过斯蒂芬·迈伦做客。

I've you know, we had Stephen Myron on.

他昨天还在接受监控，他认为美联储的政策仍然过于紧缩了150个基点。

He was on surveillance yesterday, and he thinks that the Fed is still a 150 basis points too restrictive about.

你正在关注哪些数据，能证明这一点？

What are you watching in the data that could prove that out?

或者，你需要在接下来的数据中看到什么，才能证明美联储确实落后于曲线？

Or what do you need to see in the next prints to show that the Fed is really behind the curve here?

我的观点非常坚定。

I mean, I'm I'm I'm pretty resolute in my opinion.

几个月来我一直认为，3%是一个显而易见的水平，这是我认为的均衡利率，你知道，通胀保值债券的盈亏平衡点波动不大。

I've been for many, many months that I think I think 3% is an I mean, it's a no brainer in my mind, and that that is an equilibrium rate of you know, and, you know, inflation breakevens don't trade a lot.

我不确定它们是很好的基准，但目前是2.3%。

I'm not sure they're a great benchmark, but they're 2.3%.

你仍然高于通胀保值债券的盈亏平衡点。

You're still above inflation breakevens.

如果你说，考虑到今天劳动力市场传递的信息，以及当前通胀中大部分是非周期性的服务业因素。

If you said, you know, given what the labor market is telling you today, given that inflation most of what is in inflation today is noncyclical in services.

我们谈到了住房成本，实际上，如果你降息，就能压低住房成本。

We talked about shelter, and you can actually if you drop rates, you bring shelter down.

你可以降低住房通胀。

You build shelter inflation down.

但像医疗、教育、保险、垃圾处理等这些领域对利率并不敏感。

But things like health care, education, insurance, trash, and, etcetera, like, these things are not interest rate sensitive.

所以我认为，仅靠降低联邦基金利率并不能有效抑制通胀，因为通胀中有很大一部分是非周期性的。

So I don't think inflation is, we're gonna hurt inflation by getting that funds rate any any lower because of so much of it is noncyclical in inflation.

所以我认为3%是一个合适的位置，确实是一个可以停歇的水平。

So I think three is a, is an aqueous is certainly a place you can rest.

你知道，我们是否需要进一步降息，这取决于丹尼的问题，比如，什么是过度的？如果你的经济名义增速不是5%，而随着财政顺风转为逆风，经济开始放缓，那么中性利率是否需要更接近2%？

You know, whether we have to go lower, I guess, to Danny's question about, like, what is over you know, if you have an economy that's not running 5% nominal and we start slowing because the fiscal tailwind becomes a headwind, you know, does the does the neutral rate have to be closer to two?

你知道，时间会给出答案。

You know, I think time will tell.

但我认为我们今天不需要降得那么低。

But I I don't think we have to go that much lower today.

但如果是我，我会把利率降到3%。

But I I don't If it was me, I would get the rate to three.

我会更关注收益率曲线，因为真正的经济活力体现在那里。

I would be focused on longer on the yield curve because that's where real velocity in the system works.

我们在这里为抵押贷款和信贷提供资金。

That's where we finance mortgages, credit.

系统中的几乎所有事物都是在五年到十年左右的期限内融资的。

Virtually everything in the system finances out the curve in the fives to tens roughly.

嘿，里克，如果可以的话，我得问一下，因为很多人听你的，非常欣赏你的观点，想知道你是否会参与这一决策。

Hey, Rick, if I may, you know, and I've got to ask because a lot of people listen to you, really appreciate your opinion, and wanna know if it will be you, if it will be you part of making that decision.

财政部长昨天说，你是尚未接受面谈的唯一候选人之一。

The treasury secretary yesterday said that you were one of the sole candidates who haven't yet had your interview.

你最近会去华盛顿特区吗？

Might you be headed down to Washington DC anytime soon?

是的。

Yeah.

不会。

No.

你猜中了我的回答。

You anticipated my answer.

呃，你知道的，我很好，我目前专注于家庭事务，就像我们之前聊过的那样，而且你知道，这真是我见过的最忙的时期，关于我们正在做的事情。

I I you know, I'm I'm well, I am focused on my family situation as we talked about in terms of and then, you know, b, you know, this is the busiest time, quite frankly, I've ever seen in terms of what we're doing.

你知道，我们有很多年末要处理的事情。

You know, we got a lot of year end stuff we do.

你知道，市场、基金都在不断变化，等等。

You know, markets, funds were evolving, etcetera.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

我的意思是，我知道这答案不太好，但确实如此，我从没这么忙过，这就是我目前正在做的事。

I mean, I know it's a bad answer, but I that's that's where I'm, I'm I've never been more busy, so that's that's what I'm doing.

好吧，里克，我想我可以代表整个OpenInterest团队向你表示祝贺。

Well, Rick, I think I can speak for the entirety of the OpenInterest family and wish you a congratulations to you.

谢谢。

Thanks.

是的，恭喜你。

Yes, congratulations.

里克，非常感谢你加入我们，这是贝莱德的里克·雷德。

Rick, thank you so This much for joining us is BlackRock's Rick Reeder.

今天的节目由先锋公司赞助。

Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard.

致所有聆听的财务顾问，我们来聊聊债券。

To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute.

在固定收益市场中捕捉价值并不容易。

Capturing value in fixed income is not easy.

债券市场庞大、复杂，实话实说，许多公司只是扔给你几个花哨的基金就完事了。

Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real, lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day.

但先锋公司不是这样。

But not Vanguard.

在先锋，机构级品质不是一句口号。

At Vanguard, institutional quality isn't a tagline.

而是对您客户的承诺。

It's a commitment to your clients.

我们提供全方位的优质产品，涵盖80多种债券基金，由一支200人的全球专家团队——包括行业专家、分析师和交易员——主动管理。

We're talking top grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200 person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders.

这些人全身心投入于固定收益领域。

These folks live and breathe fixed income.

因此，如果您希望为客户提供年复一年的稳定回报，请亲自前往 vanguard.com/audio 查看业绩记录。

So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio.

网址是 vanguard.com/audio。

That's vanguard.com/audio.

所有投资均存在风险，Vanguard Marketing Corporation 为分销商。

All investing is subject to risk, Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor.

Bloomberg Daybreak 是您每天早晨在播客频道中第一时间获取资讯的最佳方式。

Bloomberg Daybreak is your best way to get informed first thing in the morning right in your podcast feed.

嗨。

Hi.

我是凯伦·莫斯科。

I'm Karen Moscow.

我是内森·哈格。

And I'm Nathan Hager.

每天早上，我们早早起床，制作《彭博早间新闻》美国版的最新一期节目。

Each morning, we're up early putting together the latest episode of Bloomberg Daybreak US edition.

这是您每日十五分钟的播客，为您带来全球新闻、政治和国际关系的最新动态。

It's your daily fifteen minute podcast on the latest in global news, politics, and international relations.

每天早上收听《彭博早间新闻》美国版播客，获取您需要背景信息的重要新闻。

Listen to the Bloomberg Daybreak US edition podcast each morning for the stories that matter with the context you need.

您可以在苹果、Spotify 或您收听播客的任何平台找到我们。

Find us on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.