科技交易者对马杜罗下台漠然处之

AI代理变得越来越令人印象深刻。

AI agents are getting pretty impressive.

你可能甚至没意识到你正在听一个AI代理。

You might not even realize you're listening to one right now.

但我们不仅仅只是交谈。

But we don't just talk.

我们24/7全天候工作，以解决客户问题。

We work twenty four seven to solve customer problems.

没有等待音乐，只有答案和行动。

No hold music, just answers and action.

访问siera.ai了解更多信息。

Visit siera.ai to learn more.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

彭博科技实时直播，从东海岸到西海岸，纽约的卡罗琳·海德和旧金山的埃德·卢德洛为您报道。

Bloomberg tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.

这是

This

彭博科技即将为您带来。

is Bloomberg Tech coming up.

AI贸易摩擦卷土重来，拉开2026年序幕。

The AI trade warring back to kick off 2026.

科技股上涨，我们分析这份乐观情绪。

Tech stocks in the green, we analyze the optimism.

此外，特斯拉中国工厂的发货量在12月上升，但2025年全年仍呈下降趋势。

Plus Tesla's China factory shipments, they rise in December but still drop in 2025.

这反映了全球电动汽车需求的情况，以及今年CES展会值得关注的动态。

What that says about global EV demand and what to expect from CES this year.

我们将连线拉斯维加斯，为您提前呈现我们网络中关键对话的预览。

We'll go live to Las Vegas to give you a preview of key conversations across our network.

但首先，我们来消化市场正在消化的信息。

But first, we digest what the markets are digesting.

我们正在思考本周末发生的一件重大宏观事件——一场地缘政治事件。

We are thinking about a very macro event, a geopolitical event that occurred this weekend.

尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子被从委内瑞拉带走，送往纽约，此前周六早些时候，加拉加斯遭受了一系列空袭。

Nicolas Maduro and his wife, of course, being removed from Venezuela and being brought here to New York following a series of airstrikes that hit Caracas early Saturday.

到目前为止，市场对这一地缘政治风险反应平静。

And the market shakes off that geopolitical risk thus far.

纳斯达克指数上涨超过百分之一。

We're up more than a percentage point in the Nasdaq.

我们的关注点更多地转向了人工智能领域。

We're looking more towards an AI trade.

但我们深入分析一下。

We go under the hood, though.

市场正在寻求避险。

There is search for safety.

你已经看到黄金反弹了。

You have been seeing gold rebound.

记得，新年交易初期黄金曾大幅下跌。

Remember, it sold off hard into the New Year trade.

目前比特币上涨2.9%，我们不仅看到数字黄金价格升至93,000美元上方，现货黄金也上涨了2.7%。

Bitcoin currently up 2.9% as we see not just digital gold on the higher side that's at 93,000, but spot gold at 2.7% higher.

我注意到美元目前走势持平，但此前美元整体曾出现显著波动。

I'm looking at the US dollar currently trading flat, but we had seen significant moves in the US dollar more broadly.

我们现在要关注这一宏观事件，因为委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子塞莉亚·弗洛雷斯将在下午于纽约接受与毒品恐怖主义相关的审判。

And we want to go to that macro level event right now because Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Celia Flores, will face trial that is on narcoterrorism charges in New York in the afternoon.

现在有请彭博的迈尔斯·米勒加入我们，他目前就在布鲁克林现场。

Joining us now, Bloomberg Myles Miller, who stands by in Brooklyn right now.

跟我们谈谈这位被推翻的总统即将抵达的情况。

Just talk to us about the imminence of the arrival of the ousted president.

嗯。

Yeah.

他们被一辆装甲的“熊猫”车送往布鲁克林的一个停机坪。

They were taken by a armored Bearcat vehicle to a landing pad in Brooklyn.

然后从那里，他们飞越港口，经过自由女神像，抵达华尔街直升机停机坪，随后被车队护送至此。

And then from there, they flew across the harbor past the Statue Of Liberty, to the Wall Street helipad and were motorcaded here.

尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子今天上午都在曼哈顿下城的联邦法院，面临毒品恐怖主义指控。

Nicolas of Maduro and his wife are both here at federal court in Lower Manhattan this morning and they're facing narco terrorism charges.

联邦检察官指控马杜罗意图资助包括哥伦比亚革命武装力量（FARC）、民族解放军（ELN）、锡那罗亚贩毒集团、特伦德阿格罗兹和泽塔斯在内的恐怖组织。

Federal prosecutors alleged that Maduro intended to benefit terrorist organizations including FARC, ELN, Sinaloa Cartel, Trend Agroz, and the Zetas.

以下是检察官所说的经过。

And here's what prosecutors say happened.

从2000年到2006年，当他还是国民大会成员期间，据称马杜罗在委内瑞拉执法部门的保护下运输可卡因。

From 2000 to 2006, while he was a member of the National Assembly, they say Maduro moved cocaine under the protection of the Venezuelan law enforcement.

如果这还不够，他们称，这些人还为一些毒贩获得了外交护照，以便在委内瑞拉与哥伦比亚、墨西哥等地之间运送毒品和资金。

And if that is not enough, they say, that they were able to secure diplomatic, passports for some of these drug traffickers to move drugs and money in and out of Venezuela from places like Colombia and Mexico.

据称，在一次事件中，他们使用了一架国家石油公司的飞机来协助毒品的进出。

In one instance, we are told that they use a state oil plane, a plane for the state oil company, in order to facilitate the drugs moving in and out.

被指控的不仅仅是马杜罗和他的妻子。

It's not just Maduro and his wife who are charged in this.

他们的儿子也被指控参与了这一毒品阴谋。

Their son is charged as well with being part of this drug conspiracy.

如果被判有罪，他可能面临在美国终身监禁于超级最高安全监狱的风险。

If convicted, he faces the possibility of life in a supermax prison here in The United States.

我们终于获得了一些关于他法律团队的信息。

And we finally got some information about his legal team.

我们了解到，他将由巴里·波洛克代表。

We are learning that he's going to be represented by Barry Pollock.

这位律师也曾代表朱利安·阿桑奇，以及大卫·威尔克斯特姆——后者曾代表胡安·奥兰多·埃尔南德斯的兄弟，而埃尔南德斯是前洪都拉斯总统，不久前刚在南方地区被起诉，并由特朗普总统在几周前赦免。

That's the same person who represented Julian Assange as well as David Wilkstrom who represented the brother of Juan Orlando Hernandez, of course, the former president of Honduras, who was charged right here in the Southern District and was pardoned just a few weeks ago by president Trump.

迈尔斯，你留在布鲁克林为我们待命，但许多人好奇委内瑞拉方面如何解读此事。

Miles, you stand by in Brooklyn for us, but many wonder how this is being digested in Venezuela.

我们对委内瑞拉领导层和民众目前如何看待马杜罗了解多少？

What do we know about how Maduro is being deemed by Venezuelan leadership right now and its people?

是的。

Yeah.

我们听到了委内瑞拉副总统的说法，她并不完全认同那里将发生的事情。

You know, we heard from the vice president of Venezuela that, you know, she did not necessarily agree what would happen there.

而她，当然，是正在接管国家的人。

And she, of course, is being, the person who is taking control of the country.

接下来在委内瑞拉将是一段有趣的时期，要看她究竟会怎么做，她会允许美国控制国家石油公司、掌控委内瑞拉的石油资源到什么程度。

And it's going to be an interesting time there to see just what she does, how much, she'll allow The United States to say run the state oil company to control, the oil in Venezuela.

如果她不允许，那她会面临什么后果？

And if she doesn't, what will happen to her?

但这不仅仅是你在委内瑞拉街头听到的声音，那些对所见所闻感到沮丧的人们也是如此。

But it's not just what you're hearing on the streets of Venezuela, people who may be frustrated by what they saw.

这里两边的人都在抗议，一些人认为马杜罗仍应掌权，并希望他在庭审时获释，另一些人则表示他们因马杜罗政权而逃往美国。

You've got folks on both sides here protesting, folks who believe Maduro should still be in power and want him to be released at his court hearing, and those who say they fled to The United States because of Maduro's regime.

你知道，总统昨天刚说，美国将接管委内瑞拉。

You know, the the the president said just yesterday that The United States will run Venezuela.

他没有提供太多细节，但我认为这与石油以及那里的战略石油储备有很大关系。

Didn't give too many details, but I think it'll have a lot to do with the oil and the strategic oil reserves there as well.

迈尔斯·米勒，我们非常感谢你现场连线，我纠正一下，纽约南区法院将在曼哈顿下城继续向你转播。

Miles Miller, we so appreciate you, of course, standing live outside, and I correct myself, the Southern District of New York Court in Lower Manhattan will be returning to you later.

与此同时，美国股市对这些举动似乎置之不理。

Meanwhile, US stocks sort of shrugged off these moves.

今天早些时候，股市上涨，尽管委内瑞拉总统被罢免，科技股的需求依然强劲。

They powered higher this morning as demand for tech shares remain strong even after the ouster of Venezuela's president.

投资者对地缘政治风险感到担忧。

Fan worries over geopolitical risks.

让我们听听投资者的看法。

Let's get you an investor take.

安娜·拉芬在这里，她是Grenadilla咨询公司的创始人兼首席执行官。

Anna Ruffin is here with us, founder and CEO of Grenadilla Advisory.

所以你们的咨询服务现在非常必要。

So your advisory is necessary right now.

安娜，市场对此置之不理是对的吗？

Anna, is it right for the market to shake this off?

早上好。

Good morning.

我认为这对市场没有长期或短期的后果，而且我认为市场之所以置之不理是有原因的。

I don't think this has long short term consequences for the markets, and I think there's a reason why it's shirking it off.

这并不是一个短期的交易事件。

It's not a short term trading event.

但我确实认为这件事有长期影响。

I do think that there's a long term consequence of this.

我知道能源公司股价飙升，是因为人们认为它们可以进入该地区开采石油，但坦率地说，这并不是2026年就能实现的故事。

I know that energy companies are soaring because of this idea that they will be able to go in and extract some of that oil, but frankly, that's not a 2026 story.

这里更长远的考量其实是地缘政治。

The longer play here really is, I think, geopolitical.

想想石油在哪些地方重要。

Think about where oil matters.

俄罗斯是石油的卖家。

Russia's seller of oil.

中国是石油的买家。

China is buyer of oil.

当然，中东地区，我们都清楚那里涉及大量石油。

And, of course, Middle East, we all know that there's a lot of oil involved there.

所以，如果我们思考全球冲突的发生地以及美国如何参与这些冲突，我认为委内瑞拉的这一举动更像是一场长期的棋局，而非短期动作。

So if we think about where the conflicts are around the world and where where and how The US is involved in those conflicts, I think this move in Venezuela is more of a chess game that's a longer run game rather than a short term move.

嗯，科技投资界一直在试图剖析美中贸易和关税这场棋局。

Well, boy, has the tech investment community been trying to dissect the chess game that is US China trade and tariff.

你觉得这在2026年会对它产生什么影响，汉娜？

How does it affect that in 2026, do you think, Hannah?

你知道吗，在2026年全年，我们本应与中国就关税问题进行谈判。

Well, you know, throughout 2026, we're supposed to be talking with China about tariffs.

而这些关税和贸易谈判的核心，实际上是稀土矿物、人工智能芯片等所有这些事物。

And at the center of those tariff and trade talks really is rare earth minerals, AI chips, all of those things.

对吧？

Right?

所以，如果你是中国，看到上周末的局势发展，就会意识到，在自然资源方面，美国已经掌控了他们所需大量石油的供应。

And so if you're China and you're looking at the development over the weekend, and you realize that in terms of natural resources, US has taken control over a lot of the oil that they will need as well.

这在一定程度上改变了游戏规则，也影响了我们预计在2026年进行的这些谈判中，谁占据优势地位。

It sort of changes the game and who has the upper hand in some of these these talks that we're expecting to be in 2026.

因此，我认为从战略角度来看，这使美国在某些贸易谈判中占据了更有利的位置。

So I think this puts, you know, strategically speaking, The US in a more powerful position in some of these trade talks.

所以，接下来我们会很有趣地看到，这在稀土矿物方面，以及中国可能购买英伟达芯片等问题上，最终会如何发展。

So it'll be interesting to see how this all pans out in terms of our earth minerals and, of course, China buying potentially NVIDIA chips as well.

好的。

Okay.

所以从投资者的战略角度来看，现在押注英伟达、看着特斯拉今天大涨，是否明智？

So strategically thinking for an investor right now, is it wise to be powering NVIDIA higher, to be seeing Tesla rocketing up on the green today?

更广泛地说，2026年AI赛道是否应该重新成为投资焦点？

More broadly, should the AI trade be back on for 2026?

我认为2026年对于这些年来持续推动发展的贸易格局来说，将会是极其有趣的一年。

I think 2026 is going to be a very interesting year for some of this trade that we've seen powering through the years.

首先，我认为2026年将有大量首次公开募股（IPO）涌现。

I think, first of all, there is this idea that a lot of IPOs will come into play in 2026.

我们将看到这些公司，尤其是那些估值极高的公司，融资是容易还是困难，以及投资者是否真的对这些项目感兴趣。

We will see how easy or difficult it is for a lot of these companies to fundraise, especially those that have really, really high valuations, whether or not the investors really have the appetite for these things.

至于英伟达和特斯拉，它们其实还有其他问题。

And as for Nvidia and Tesla, they have other problems, really.

我的意思是，英伟达正面临TPU逐步上线的挑战。

I mean Nvidia has issues with TPUs coming online.

尽管我认为它们仍然拥有大量市场份额，但仍有一些值得思考的问题。

And even though I do think that they have a lot of market share still, there are things to think about.

对于特斯拉来说，还有比亚迪，对吧？

For Tesla, there's also BYD, right?

所以这并不仅仅是AI在推动市场。

So it's not so much that it is about AI powering through.

我认为市场上确实存在激烈的竞争，这些公司需要认真考虑。

I think there's real competition out there that these companies need to be thinking about.

这很有趣。

So it's interesting.

我们今天晚些时候将在CES上听到黄仁勋和AMD的苏姿丰的发言。

We're gonna be hearing from Jensen Huang later today at CES from Lisa Su of AMD.

你认为他们能向市场提供什么，来支撑至少英伟达的市场份额？

What do you think they can give to the market that backs up the market share, certainly of NVIDIA at least?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，更明确的指引肯定是有帮助的。

I think, clearer guidance is definitely, helpful.

我知道英伟达已经为2026年提供了更明确的指引，而且市场需求似乎非常旺盛。

I know that the NVIDIA has certainly given a clearer guidance for 2026, and there seems to be a lot of demand.

但他们必须回应下一个最接近的替代方案。

But they're gonna have to answer to sort of the next best thing.

对吧？

Right?

那么，Blackwell芯片之后会是什么？

So what's beyond the Blackwell chips?

在与OpenAI和其他大型企业的合作关系之外，又会有什么新发展？

What's beyond the relationships with OpenAI and other big players out there?

我认为，投资者需要听到关于新合作伙伴关系和技术进步的更多信息，才能让这种兴奋情绪持续到2026年。

I think investors need to hear something new in terms of partnerships as well as technological advancement for a lot of this excitement to continue into 2026.

扎娜，你对2026年是持乐观还是悲观态度？

Zana, where do you stand in optimism versus pessimism for 2026?

如果此刻仍然存在许多未解的问题，也许市场尚未充分考虑某些风险。

If at this moment, there are still many more questions, perhaps the market isn't factoring in some of the risks.

你现在应该在这个水平买入吗？

Should you be buying in at these levels?

嗯，如果你已经投资了，我认为市场还有上涨空间，但肯定伴随着波动。

Well, you know, if you're already invested, I think there's room for markets to run, but with not without any volatility here.

我不认为市场如此兴奋，因为分析师们看到标普500公司实现了15%的年同比增长，这在基本面层面可能令人振奋，也希望这种增长能扩展到标普500指数的其他行业。

I don't think the market is so excited that, you know, analysts looking at 15% year over year growth in the S and P 500 companies, that might be exciting on a fundamental level, and hopefully it broadens out to the rest of the sectors in the S and P 500 index.

但目前的估值倍数已经非常高了。

But there are multiples that are very, very stretched.

对吧？

Right?

特别是考虑到与中国的关系不仅影响科技领域，还影响经济的其他方面，我认为我们即将面临一些波动。

So especially with this talks with China that not only impacts tech, but also other areas of the economy, I think we're due for some volatility.

但通过构建一个稳健的投资组合来应对波动，这一直是顾问界的普遍建议。

But weather the volatility by having a robust portfolio, and that is always recommended by the adviser community.

真正有趣的是，软件和硬件股票之间的表现差异持续扩大。

What's been really interesting is, well, the ongoing drive dispersion between software and hardware names.

我们在周五特别看到了这一点，我们出色的制作人丹·库尔茨一直指出，软件指数在周五下跌了约3%，而当你看半导体指数时，尤其是上涨了超过4%，这种情况会持续吗？

We saw that in particular on Friday, and our great producer Dan Kurtz has been pointing out just the disparity that you saw in software indices that fell some 3% on Friday, and then we rallied in when you're looking at a semiconductor index in particular more than four Is that gonna continue?

我们需要多少额外的支持，才能证明软件能够从人工智能交易中受益？

How much more support do we need for software to show that it can benefit from the AI trade?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为2026年仍将是一个‘卖铲子’的年份。

I think 2026 is still going to be a picks and shovels year.

建设这些基础设施，以及对它们的需求，不是一两年内就能完成的。

Building these things out and the demand there is for it, that's not something that can be done in a year or two.

我认为这是一个持续多年的趋势。

I think this is a multiple year story.

而在软件方面，目前仍有许多实验性探索。

And certainly on the software side, there's a lot of experimentation still.

如果你作为客户正在尝试订阅其中一些服务，但只是浅尝辄止，那么这些服务是否能长期留存并无保障。

And if you're a customer sort subscribing to some of these things and dipping your toes in, there's no guarantee that that's going to be sticky.

我的意思是，我们在考虑像SaaS这样的东西，如果你订阅了某个服务并将这些软件融入日常，它就会变得非常难以替代。

I mean, I think we're thinking about things like SaaS, where if you have a subscription to something and you incorporate those software into your day to day, it becomes super sticky.

我不认为我们在AI领域的软件上已经达到了这种程度。

I don't think that's necessarily where we are with the software on the AI side.

我认为人们还在尝试中。

I think people are experimenting.

在我们看到这些软件真正融入企业日常、产生粘性之前，我也会持一点怀疑态度，我认为这正是市场实际所表达的。

So until we can see some stickiness and real incorporation and integration of those software into the day to day of the businesses, I would be a little bit skeptical as well, and I think that's what the markets are actually expressing.

很有趣。

Fascinating.

很高兴今天能听到格拉纳迪拉咨询公司的创始人兼首席执行官安娜·拉特曼带来的一剂健康的怀疑态度。

Love getting a little healthy dose of skepticism today from Anna Rathman, founder, CEO of Grenadilla Advisory.

保重。

Stay well.

2026年快乐。

Happy 2026.

接下来，委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的被捕正受到拉美以外地区的密切关注。

Now coming up, the arrest of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro is being watched far beyond Latin America.

这一事件可能对美国的决心以及中美台关系产生何种影响。

What it could mean for US resolve and China Taiwan relations.

这里是彭博科技。

This is Bloomberg Tech.

每天，数百万客户都在与我这样的AI代理互动。

Every day, millions of customers engage with AI agents like me.

我们全天候工作，随时掌握最新信息。

We work round the clock and have the facts at our fingertips.

我们反应迅速、高效，但又极其耐心。

We're fast and effective, but incredibly patient.

我们基于Sierra平台构建，这是领先的AI驱动客户体验平台。

And we're built on Sierra, the leading AI powered customer experience platform.

无需等待音乐，只有即时的回答与行动。

No hold music, just answers and action.

访问 sierra.ai 了解更多信息。

Visit sierra.ai to learn more.

那就是 sierra.ai。

That's sierra.ai.

委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的被捕，其影响远超拉丁美洲。

The arrest of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, well, it's reverberating well beyond Latin America.

一些人正在关注台湾。

Some in Taiwan.

他们已经将这一举动视为美国决心的信号，但美国的这一行动也引发了担忧，即这可能为北京处理与台湾的紧张关系提供了一个模板。

Well, they're already viewing the move as a signal of US resolve, but the American strike is also stirring concerns that it's offered a template how Beijing could handle tensions with Taiwan.

为您深入解析的是彭博社高级科技编辑迈克·谢泼德。

Here to break it down is Bloomberg senior tech editor, Mike Shepherd.

迈克，您从科技视角为我们带来全球地缘政治的洞察。

You bring us the global geopolitical perspective from a tech insight here, Mike.

对于台湾及其在当前状态下应对中国的能力，我们应当如何看待？

What should we think for Taiwan and its, well, ability to continue in its current state vis a vis China?

嗯，卡拉，你刚才已经梳理出了不同的观点。

Well, there are different schools of thought, Kara, that you mapped out right there.

一种观点来自中国内部，那就是民族主义视角，看吧。

One is from inside China, there is the nationalist perspective that, look.

这为我们提供了一条路线图，或许能帮助我们重新掌控这个自治岛屿——台湾，北京当局视其为叛离省份，认为应当将其重新纳入版图。

This offers us a road map perhaps of how we could retake control of the self governed island of Taiwan, which officials in Beijing view as a rogue province, as one that they should bring back into the fold.

与此同时，在台湾的台北，官员们实际上从美国在委内瑞拉的行动中看到了一些鼓舞，认为这或许能向北京发出威慑信号，阻止其在台湾采取类似行动。

Meanwhile, in Taiwan, in Taipei, officials, they're actually finding some encouragement from The US move in Venezuela as perhaps a way of signaling deterrence against Beijing to try to do anything similar there.

他们之所以这样看待，主要有两个原因。

And they see it that way for two reasons.

第一，他们认为美国在这一地区拥有对中国的军事优势。

One, they find that The US has military superiority over China in this area.

中国无法像美国上周六在加拉加斯那样实施同样的行动。

China would not be able to pull off the same kind of maneuver that The US just did on Saturday in Caracas.

另一个原因是，他们认为这表明特朗普会在美国战略利益受到威胁时动用军事力量，而如果中国对台湾采取行动，这无疑会危及台湾——全球芯片供应链的关键枢纽。

Now and the other reason is that they see that this signals that Trump will exercise US military power when he sees American strategic interests at risk, and they certainly would be if China moved against Taiwan, which is a linchpin in the global chip supply chain.

嗯。

Yeah.

去说吧，迈克。

Go there, Mike.

台湾的国家安全影响。

The national security implications of Taiwan.

为什么这对政府如此关键？

Why is that so crucial to the administration?

他们仍然认为台湾对于支持广泛产业至关重要，尤其是他们寄予厚望的新兴产业——人工智能。

Well, they still see Taiwan as so essential to being able to support a wide range of industries, especially the growing one on which they have placed so many bets, and that is artificial intelligence.

目前，台湾无疑是全球最先进人工智能芯片的生产中心。

Taiwan, far and away right now, is the world center of production of the most advanced AI chips.

即使美国在未来几年计划了大量生产投资，但其中大部分尚未投产，仍主要在台湾这个自治岛屿上生产。

Even with all the investment in production that is planned for The US in coming years, much of that is not online yet and is really still being produced in Taiwan on the self governed island.

因此，任何对这条供应链的干扰都将是灾难性的，尤其是出于政治原因。

So any disruption to that supply chain would be catastrophic, especially for political reasons.

如果我们看到北京对台湾岛采取任何军事行动，都会造成破坏。

If we saw any sort of military action by Beijing against the island, it would be disruptive.

卡罗尔，我们还记得疫情期间供应链中断有多么严重，以及它们如何波及汽车业和其他行业，而那还只是在人工智能和ChatGPT出现、以及这项革命性技术在经济中广泛普及之前；如果突然间世界失去了对它的访问，美国很可能会做出回应。

And, Carol, we remember during the pandemic just how problematic those dislocations in the supply chain were and how they rippled through to the automotive sector and others, and that, of course, was before the advent of artificial intelligence and chat GPT and the wide scale uptake that we're seeing across the economy of this revolutionary new technology and what that would mean if suddenly the world lost access to it, we would likely see The US respond.

目前尚不清楚是否会动用军事力量，但肯定会同日本、澳大利亚等其他国家一起实施制裁，这些国家已经表示，如果北京试图军事干预，它们将挺身而出保卫台湾。

It's unclear whether militarily, but certainly with sanctions together with other nations like Japan and Australia that have already mused about leaping to the island's defense in the event of Beijing trying to intervene militarily.

重要的是要记住，尽管特朗普对美国是否会动用武力保卫台湾仍保持模糊态度，但该政府刚刚批准了价值110亿美元的军售计划，向台湾出售武器，这是近年来最大的一批之一，卡罗尔。

And it's important to remember, while Trump has remained vague about whether he would step in with US forces to defend the island, the administration just approved an 11,000,000,000 package of arms to be sold to Taiwan, which is one of the largest in recent memory, Carol.

总是这么深入分析。

Always with the deep analysis.

迈克·谢泼德，感谢你详细解析。

Mike Shepherd, thanks for breaking that down.

与此同时，我们所说的这种地缘政治焦虑，在该地区的AI产业中并未产生任何影响。

Meanwhile, look, this geopolitical anxiety that we speak of has had no impact on the AI trade in that part of the world.

看看台积电的股价，它自四月以来涨幅最大，因为该公司正受益于人工智能需求激增带来的乐观情绪。

Look at TSMC shares, Climbed by the most since April as the company rides a wave of optimism over artificial intelligence demand.

彭博社科技执行主编彼得·埃尔斯特罗姆加入我们，带来更多信息。

Bloomberg Tech executive editor Peter Elstrom joins us for more.

我们已经听到，从拉丁美洲对台湾的影响来看，这其实有两种解读方式。

And we've heard how in many ways, there's two ways you can interpret what this impact from Latin America means on Taiwan.

但台积电似乎增长强劲。

But TSMC, great growth it seems.

没错。

Yeah.

正如你刚才和迈克提到的，台湾如今在人工智能热潮中，尤其是在生产方面，正处于核心位置。

As you were just talking about with Mike, Taiwan really is at the heart of the AI boom right now when it comes to the production.

正如我们看到的，台积电今天的股价上涨了约5%。

As we saw with TSMC, the shares are up by about 5% today.

高盛上调了该股票的目标价。

We had Goldman Sachs raise its price target for the stock.

他们将目标价提高了35%。

They boosted it by 35%.

从这只股票的表现来看，他们预期的增长幅度真是非同寻常。

It's really extraordinary increase in what they expect you can see from that stock.

台积电通过为英伟达制造芯片取得了非常好的业绩。

TSMC has done very well by making the chips for Nvidia.

它还为苹果和其他客户生产芯片。

It also produces chips for Apple and other customers here.

但最近英伟达为其带来了巨大的动力，使公司股价一路飙升。

But really Nvidia has given it a ton of momentum recently that's put the company on a tear.

其市值现已达到约1.4万亿美元，大幅上涨，高盛表示，股价还有可能从当前水平再上涨40%。

Its market cap is now about $1,400,000,000,000 up quite sharply, and Goldman Sachs is telling you that it could run another 40% from where it is right now.

因此，如果能达到这一目标价，台积电有望成为一家市值2万亿美元的公司。

So it's really talking about TSMC becoming a $2,000,000,000,000 company if they can hit that price target.

这在很大程度上将基于英伟达的增长动力以及苹果等其他客户的表现。

That would largely be based on the momentum behind NVIDIA's growth and some of their other customers like Apple.

英伟达也在帮助鸿海提升其业绩。

And NVIDIA has been helping Hon Hai as well with its numbers.

没错。

That's right.

是的。

Yeah.

Exactly。

Exactly.

所以鸿海公布了其第四季度的部分财务细节。

So Hon Hai reported their some of their financial details for the fourth quarter.

他们的收入增长了22%。

Their revenue was up 22%.

鸿海也为苹果制造iPhone，这长期以来是其最重要的业务，但它也制造包含NVIDIA芯片的服务器。

Honohi makes or makes iPhones for Apple too, which was its very most important business for a long period of time, but it also makes servers that include those Nvidia chips.

因此，它正在向各大超大规模云服务商提供服务器和硬件，这些服务商正在美国及全球范围内建设庞大的数据中心。

So it's feeding servers and hardware to the hyperscalers that are building these enormous data centers across The US and across the globe.

实际上，它拥有巨大的增长动力，因为包括微软和谷歌在内的大型云服务商今年将支出增加30%以上，达到数千亿美元，这为鸿海带来了强劲的助力。

Really, it has a tremendous amount of momentum because the big hyperscalers, including Microsoft and Google, are boosting their spending by more than 30%, this year to to, hundreds of billions of dollars, and that's giving a big tailwind to Hanhai.

所以我们看到富士康在第四季度的收入增长了22%。

So we saw Hanhai, boost its revenue for the fourth quarter 22%.

其收入比预期高出数十亿美元，达到830亿美元。

It came in a couple billion dollars more than expected at $83,000,000,000.

因此，它目前势头强劲。

So it has a lot of momentum here.

看起来，对人工智能设备的需求至少在现阶段仍在增加。

It looks like that demand for AI gear is increasing at least for now.

是的。

Yeah.

事实上，iPhone 17的表现不错。

And indeed, the iPhone 17 did well.

正如你提到的，关键供应商富士康，也就是鸿海。

As you mentioned, a key supplier, Foxconn, also known as Honhai.

但是，彼得，回到我们对话的起点，正如我们所见，台湾地区持续存在地缘政治焦虑。

But, Peter, going back to the start of this conversation, this is as we see ongoing geopolitical anxiety around Taiwan.

我们看到这些公司在美国投资了多少，并且还会继续投资吗？

How much are we seeing these names invest in America and continue to do so?

它们是战略性资产。

Well, they are strategic assets.

当然，正如你和迈克提到的，台积电是全球最重要的芯片制造商，远超其他公司，因为它为英伟达、苹果等公司生产先进的芯片，它一直在美国建设工厂。

Definitely, as you were talking about with Mike, TSMC, the the most important chipmaker in the world by a mile because of the advanced chips that it makes for companies like Nvidia, Apple, etcetera, has been building facilities in The United States.

它在那里投入了大量资源。

It's putting a lot of resources there.

它获得了拜登政府芯片法案的资金支持，并持续扩大这些芯片的产能。

It got some money from the chip sack under the Biden administration has continued to build out those chips.

它在那里取得了很大进展。

It is making a lot of progress there.

它能够在当地建设相当高效的晶圆厂，但目前这些工厂的先进程度还远不及其在台湾的产能。

It's able to build fabs there that are quite productive, but they're not nearly as advanced as what they can do in Taiwan at this point.

这也是台湾政府和台积电自身所持理由的一部分。

And this is part of the justification by the Taiwanese government and also TSMC itself.

他们希望将最重要的资产保留在台湾。

They wanna have their most important assets in Taiwan.

部分原因是规模经济的问题。

Partly, it's an economies of scale issue.

他们可以更方便地前往这些工厂，让工程师在工厂内相互学习。

They can travel to those much more easily, have the engineers learn from each other within those factories.

他们希望将最先进的生产保留在那里。

They wanna keep that most advanced production there.

坦率地说，这也是台湾政府的一种防御策略：如果最重要的资产在那里，他们就知道，无论是特朗普政府还是任何其他美国政府，都更有可能前来确保这些资产得到保护。

It's also, frankly, a defensive maneuver for the government that if the most important assets are there, they know that the Trump administration or whatever US government is in power is more inclined to come and make sure that they're protected.

彼得·阿尔斯特罗姆，《全球视角》，感谢您。

Peter Alstrom, The Global Perspective, we thank you.

特斯拉中国工厂的出货量今天公布，显示2025年有所下降。

Tesla's China factory shipments, they came in today and showed they dropped in 2025.

但在12月最后一刻出现了一次增长。

But there was a last minute bump in December where they grew.

尽管该公司正面临全球销量下滑的困境。

That's though as the company struggles with the slowdown in global sales.

看。

Look.

正如我刚才提到的，12月的销量略高于97,000辆，这是2025年仅有的四个实现增长的月份之一。

All of this, as I just mentioned, a little over 97,000 were in December, just the fourth month in 2025 that saw an increase.

让我们邀请彭博社的克雷格·特鲁德尔来谈谈这一切。

Let's bring in Bloomberg's Craig Trudell on all of this.

他是《超速》通讯的作者。

He's the author of Hyperdrive newsletter.

所以，让我理清一下：特斯拉在12月的销量在月度和年度对比上表现尚可，但从2025年全年来看，情况依然惨淡。

So to get this straight, Tesla had decent numbers in December in terms of growth month on month and indeed year on year, but it's just woeful for the whole picture of 2025.

是的。

Yeah.

没错，卡罗琳。

That's right, Caroline.

我认为，我们看十二月的数据，实际上表现得很坚韧，不仅仅是今年为数不多的增长月份之一，而且还是在去年基数相对较高的情况下实现的。

I I think, you know, we look at the December number and it's actually, you know, resilient and and not just one of the rare up months for the year, but off of a relatively big month a a year earlier.

但当你纵观这家公司的整体情况时，你会发现他们全年的交付量要低得多，这反映出他们确实存在一些需求问题。

And yet when you look at the sort of whole picture for this company, you know, they they had shipments throughout the year that were much lower and sort of reflecting this idea that they have some demand issues.

当然，当我们查看他们的交付数据时，这既包括本地市场，也包括一些出口。

And, of course, when we look at their shipment data, it's it's both for the local market and for some export as well.

因此，在未来几周，我们将更清楚地了解零售销售的实际状况。

So we'll get a better sense in the coming weeks just how the sort of retail sales work.

也就是说，从中国交付量来看，这已经是连续第二年下滑。

I mean, it's the second consecutive annual drop when you're looking at China shipments.

所有这些都发生在比亚迪已成为全球最大的电动汽车厂商的背景下。

All of this comes in context that BYD is now the biggest EV player worldwide.

此外，你还会看到其他来自曾做手机的公司转型进入汽车领域的竞争。

You've also got other competition coming from ex phone makers who pivot into cars.

是的。

Yeah.

而且中国的市场竞争越来越激烈。

And and China's market is increasingly cutthroat.

你看到北京方面试图对行业施加压力，让这种恶性竞争停下来，促使价格回归更理性的水平。

You've seen Beijing try to sort of, you know, put some pressure on the industry to knock this off and kind of, you know, get to to a point where pricing is a little bit more rational.

嗯。

Mhmm.

然而，我们仍不断看到制造商推出越来越激进的折扣，这一直是特斯拉在过去一年中，甚至可追溯到2023年，都难以应对的问题。

And yet we only continue to see manufacturers, you know, offer new and and more aggressive discounts, and that's been something that Tesla has really struggled to contend throughout last year and even, dating back to, I would say, 2023.

在美国，短期内还有Lucid的竞争。

Briefly here in The US, there's competition from Lucid.

嗯。

Yeah.

我认为，像Rivian一样，Lucid距离特斯拉还有很长的路要走。

And and Lucid, I think, like Rivian, is still a long ways behind Tesla.

我认为这两家公司都曾希望给埃隆·马斯克带来更多挑战，但这一目标尚未实现。

I think both of these companies had ambitions to give Elon Musk more of a challenge, and we've not seen that materialize.

我认为该公司在第四季度的表现相当强劲，而当时他们正从一款车型转向两款车型。

I think we saw some relatively strong numbers for that company in the fourth quarter, and yet you would expect that when they were going from one model to two models.

因此，今年他们面临重大挑战，试图推出一个全新的平台。

So, you know, big things ahead for them this year as they try tried to also bring out a new platform.

彭博社汽车版编辑，或者我们喜欢称呼的扎尔，克拉特代尔。

Bloomberg's auto's editor, or ZAR as we like to call you, Craterdale.

很高兴能和你交流一段时间。

Great to have some time with you.

明天请收听，我们将与Lucid临时首席执行官马克·温特霍夫对话。

Tune in tomorrow as we sit down with Lucid interim CEO Mark Winterhof.

这将在CES现场直播。

That's live at CES.

欢迎回到彭博科技。

Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech.

我们关注这些市场，尽管存在地缘政治焦虑，却依然强劲上涨，尤其是纳斯达克指数，目前上涨了1.1%。

We check-in on these markets that shrug off some geopolitical anxiety, of course, when galloping higher, in fact, on the Nasdaq as you see at 1.1%.

但你正看到人们对安全资产的追捧。

You are seeing search for safety, though.

比特币上涨了2.8%。

Bitcoin may be up 2.8%.

黄金再次攀升，这发生在委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被罢免之后，他即将抵达曼哈顿法院。

Gold climbs fresh again, and this is after the ouster of Venezuela's president Nicolas Maduro, who is set to arrive at a Manhattan court imminently.

现在我们来思考地缘政治背景。

Now we think about the geopolitical context.

我们也在思考2026年初人工智能领域的动向，我们马上回来。

We also think about what the AI trade is up to at the start of 2026, and we're back on.

英伟达上涨了0.7%。

NVIDIA up seven tenths percent.

AMD上涨了0.6%。

AMD up six tenths percent.

我们今天晚些时候将在拉斯维加斯的CES上听到这两位首席执行官的发言。

We hear from both of these CEOs over in Las Vegas later today at CES.

因此，市场希望这些领导者提供更多透明度。

So the market wanting to hear more transparency from these leaders.

Palantir 摆脱了部分

Palantir shakes off some of

上周五出现的抛售

the sell off that we

行情。

saw on Friday.

这家融合了人工智能的软件公司涨幅超过4%。

This software AI infused software company is up more than 4%.

从点数角度看，它是纳斯达克100指数中主要的上涨股之一。

It's one of the key gainers on the Nasdaq 100 from a points perspective.

Alphabet 也是如此。

So too is Alphabet.

我们的涨幅达到510%，这得益于市场对谷歌及其Gemini系列产品，以及其TPU技术创新的持续旺盛需求。

We're up 510% as still insatiable demand for Google and indeed its Gemini iterations, but also its TPU innovations.

让我们更多地谈谈人工智能交易及其韧性。

Let's talk more about the AI trade, its resiliency.

彭博社科技股票记者卡门·莱因克在这里。

Bloomberg's tech equity reporter Carmen Reinke is here.

你一直笔耕不辍，深入思考人工智能泡沫这一被广泛讨论的话题。

You've And been putting pen to paper thinking all about how an AI bubble has been much talked of.

这是现实吗？

Is it reality?

它会破裂吗？

Is it going to pop?

关于历史背景，你听到了哪些说法？

What have you been hearing in terms of historical context?

是的。

Yeah.

从历史背景来看，这确实很有趣。

So looking at this in historical context is really interesting.

我认为，我们都知道明年还会继续谈论人工智能。

I think we know that there's gonna be a fourth year of talking about AI.

推动市场。

Driving the market.

我们处于泡沫中吗？

Are we in a bubble?

因此，当你回顾过去的一些股市泡沫时，投资者指出了一些重要的不同之处。

And so when you look at some of the past equity bubbles, there are some differences that investors point out that are important.

例如，这次上涨的持续时间比过去10次股市泡沫的平均时间更长。

So, for example, the duration of this rally is longer than the average of the last 10 equity bubbles.

我们已经持续了三年。

We're at three years.

平均大约是两年半。

The average is about two and a half.

但与此同时，涨幅实际上要低得多。

But at the same time, the percentage gain is actually much lower.

因此，过去三年纳斯达克指数上涨了约130%，而过去十个股市泡沫期间的平均涨幅超过240%。

So we're up about a 130% on the Nasdaq over the last three years, and the average for the last 10 equity bubbles has been more than 240%.

这表明我们并没有经历那种通常在泡沫破裂前出现的剧烈市场上涨周期。

So that kind of signals that we're we're not in the sort of blistering sort of upcycle, upswing in the market that you usually see before a bubble pops.

还有一些其他关键因素。

There are also some other key things.

投资者仍在关注大型科技公司的坚实基本面，而且我们去年看到的悲观情绪——尤其是投资者强烈要求回报率，希望这些公司展现出更多创新——这实际上对避免市场泡沫是有利的。

You know, investors are still watching really solid fundamentals from the big tech companies and, actually, pessimism that we saw, especially, I think, gain really over last year, you know, investors really calling for ROI, you know, for seeing more, like, innovation from these companies, that's actually a good thing in terms of a market bubble.

没错。

Right.

这与互联网泡沫时代非常不同，当时投资者对互联网及相关领域过于兴奋，以至于忽视了这些公司的估值和基本面。

It very much differs from the .com era where investors were so excited about the Internet and everything related to that that they kind of overlooked, you know, valuations and of the fundamentals of those companies.

我觉得“辨别力”是十二月的关键词。

I felt like discerning was the word of December.

大家都说投资者变得更加有辨别力了。

Everyone was saying investors getting more discerning.

他们在人工智能领域挑选赢家。

They were picking their winners among the AI trade.

在甲骨文和那些公司抛售后，我们的状况如何？

How are we set up post sell off of an Oracle and those those companies?

它们在2025年依然表现极为出色，但随着企业和投资者试图理解这些公司的债务负担，一些炒作确实有所消退。

They still did extraordinarily well for 2025, but some of that hype did fizzle somewhat as companies and investors try to understand the debt loads of these businesses.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为我们看到的另一件好事是这场涨势的广泛化。

And I think the other thing that we're seeing that's good is the broadening of this rally.

是的，人们正在挑选赢家和输家，但我们也看不到最大涨幅的股票继续出现这种天文数字般的年度涨幅。

So, yes, people are picking their winners and their losers, but we're also not seeing the biggest gainers continue to have these sort of, like, astronomical percent gains over the year.

比如在七巨头中，只有两家——英伟达和谷歌母公司——去年跑赢了标普500指数。

So in the Mag seven, for example, only two, NVIDIA and Alphabet, the like, those were the only stocks that outperformed the S and P 500 last year.

而我们看到的最大涨幅、百分比最高的赢家，其实是其他与人工智能相关的股票，比如内存和数字存储公司。

And, you know, the biggest performers or the biggest sort of percentage winners that we saw were other stocks linked to AI, so the memory, like, the digital storage companies.

这也表明涨势正在扩散，这对市场来说通常更有利。

So that also just shows that the the rally's broadening out, and that is, like, generally more healthy for the market.

2026年开局有点起色。

A little bit of health kick off this 2026.

请进来，雷内克。

Come in, Reineke.

谢谢你的参与。

We appreciate it.

让我们继续聚焦于AI建设，特别是其安全性，以及围绕电力和基础设施限制的日益增长的疑问。

Let's stick with the AI build out in particular, how secure it is, questions growing around in particular, power and infrastructure constraints as well.

Flexential是美国最大的私营数据中心运营商之一。

Flexential is one of the largest privately held data center operators in The United States.

在美国18个市场拥有42个数据中心。

42 data centers across 18 markets here in The US.

瑞安·马洛里是首席执行官。

Ryan Mallory is the CEO.

很高兴欢迎您加入我们。

Pleased to say you join us now.

我想为我们的观众澄清一下，瑞安，您如何定义您在整体市场中的定位。

And I want to get for our audience really, Ryan, how you define where you sit in the overall market.

因为据我了解，您目前提供的是机柜托管服务。

Because right now, from what I understand is you're a colocation offering.

我们有大型超大规模云服务商，有新兴云服务商，然后就是Flexential。

So we've got big hyperscalers, got neo clouds, and then we got Flexential.

没错。

That's correct.

谢谢您今天早上抽出时间与我交流，卡罗琳。

And and thanks for the opportunity to catch up this morning, Caroline.

关键在于您部署的是何种基础设施。

It's really about, you know, the type of infrastructure that you deploy out there.

Flexential采取了非常务实的态度，确保我们能够满足大规模基础设施的需求。

Flexential is taking a very pragmatic view on making sure we're able to address the wholesale infrastructure.