Altius Minerals：版税核查 - [商业解析，第 243 集]

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Portrait was built by former buy side investors, and they understand great investing isn't just about having more information from low quality sources.

关键在于以正确的方式整理正确的信息。

It's about having the right information organized the right way.

如果你收听这个节目，你会明白尽职调查包含很多方面。

And if you listen to the show, you appreciate diligence consists of many things.

深入探究企业的历史，梳理微妙的竞争动态，跟踪围绕你投资论点的关键指标。

Diving into the history of a business, framing the nuance competitive dynamics, tracking key signposts around your thesis.

而以往，这些工作会占用你大量宝贵的时间。

And historically, that would take up material time that you do not have.

但Portrait就像是为你的团队增添了一支分析师大军。

But Portrait is basically like adding an army of analysts to your team.

它由专为投资研究工作流程设计的AI系统驱动。

It's powered by an AI system specifically designed for investment research workflows.

所以你能获得更细致的投资想法。

So you get nuanced idea generation.

Portrait 会评估我们在节目中讨论的同类定性特征，这有助于识别符合你投资框架的企业。

Portrait assesses the same types of qualitative attributes that we discuss on this show, and that can help identify businesses which fit your frameworks.

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Portrait also customizes research report generation.

第三，它有智能的论点监控功能，每天评估价值链上的数千个数据点，提取关键信息，推动业务发展。

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再说一遍，这些工作通常要花上好几个小时。

Again, all this work would typically take hours and hours and hours.

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It's at your fingertips now.

今天就访问 portraitresearch.com 开始你的免费试用吧。

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这里是《商业解析》。

This is Business Breakdowns.

《商业拆解》是一系列与投资者和运营者的对话，深入探讨单一业务。

Business Breakdowns is a series of conversations with investors and operators diving deep into a single business.

对于每个业务，我们都会探索它的历史、商业模式、竞争优势，以及它运转的奥秘。

For each business, we explore its history, its business model, its competitive advantages, and what makes it tick.

我们相信每个业务都有投资者和运营者可以学习的教训和秘密，我们在这里为你呈现这些内容。

We believe every business has lessons and secrets that investors and operators can learn from, and we are here to bring them to you.

要找到更多《商业拆解》的剧集，请访问joincolossus.com。

To find more episodes of breakdowns, check out joincolossus.com.

主持人和播客嘉宾所表达的所有观点仅代表他们个人意见。

All opinions expressed by hosts and podcast guests are solely their own opinions.

主持人、播客嘉宾、他们的雇主或关联方可能持有本播客中讨论的证券头寸。

Hosts, podcast guests, their employers, or affiliates may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

本播客仅供参考，不应作为投资决策的依据。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.

我是马特·拉塞尔，今天我们来拆解阿尔蒂乌斯矿业。

This is Matt Russell, and today we are breaking down Altius Minerals.

我很喜欢研究特许权使用费业务，因为说到底，特许权使用费的核心就是承保和构建风险与期限，并且思考学术金融的概念。

I love learning about royalty businesses because, ultimately, royalties are all about underwriting and structuring risk and duration and thinking about the concepts of academic finance.

而且说实话，这比纯粹的运营更贴近投资的感觉。

And really, it feels much more relatable to investing than pure operating.

我这是在简化，但这是另一个独特的特许权使用费业务的绝佳例子。

I'm oversimplifying, but this is another great example of a unique royalty business.

我的嘉宾是Hosking Partners的投资组合经理Luke Bridgeman。

And my guest is Luke Bridgeman, portfolio manager at Hosking Partners.

你可能还记得Luke，我们之前有一期节目是关于三I的。

And you may remember Luke from our episode on three I.

他今天回来聊Altius。

He's back to talk about Altius today.

我们从头讲起特许权使用费，特别是Altius如何随着时间演变，他们在金属领域对不同大宗商品的敞口，以及他们如何进军可再生能源领域，还有这个业务涉及的所有资本配置考量。

We go through royalties one zero one and in particular as it relates to Altius and how they've evolved over time with their exposure to different commodities within metals and how they've made a push into the renewable sector and all of the capital allocation considerations that come into play with this business.

所以从我的声音里你也能听出来，这期节目很有趣。

So as you can hear from my voice, this was a fun one.

这是一个非常有趣的企业，可能不太为人所知，但了解起来很有意思。

It's a fascinating business that is probably off the radar, but very interesting to learn about.

所以请尽情享受我们关于Altius Minerals的对话。

So please enjoy our conversation on Altius Minerals.

好的，Luke。

Alright, Luke.

很高兴你能再次来到Business Breakdowns节目。

It is great to have you back on business breakdowns.

今天我们聊的是Altius Minerals，在我们第一次对话和做了一些研究之前，我对这个名字并不熟悉。

Today, we are talking Altius Minerals, which is a name I was unfamiliar with prior to our initial conversation and doing some research about it.

这是那种对投资者来说有点小众但非常有趣的企业，我今天很期待深入探讨。

It's one of these fascinating names that is kind of in the niche category, I think, for investors, but really, really interesting business, and I'm excited to get into it today.

也许我们可以从你如何向那些不熟悉它的人描述它开始，就像我自己一样，这样也能为我们的对话开个头。

Maybe we could just kick off with how you would describe it to those that aren't familiar with it, similar to myself, and that can give us a kickoff to the conversation.

谢谢，Matt。

Thanks, Matt.

Altius Minerals是一家特许权使用费公司，专注于基本金属，这使它与其他通常专注于贵金属或石油天然气的特许权使用费公司有所不同，同时也涉及基本金属。

Altius Minerals is a royalty company, and it's a royalty company which is focused on base metals, which makes it a little different from other royalty companies which tend to focus on precious metals or oil and gas, as well as doing base metals.

它还涉足了可再生能源的特许权使用费，这使它与其他特许权使用费公司截然不同。

It also has ventured into doing royalties on renewables, which makes it extremely different from other royalty companies.

你会把哪些东西归入基本金属的范畴？

What would you put into the category of base metals?

贵金属我大概知道，但如果你能描述一下基本金属，或者告诉我你会把哪些东西归入这个类别，那会很有帮助。

I can kinda fill in the blanks on precious metals, but if there's a description that you would give to it or things that you would bucket into that category, that would be helpful as well.

比如铜，这在能源转型中显然很受欢迎，还有电池材料如镍和锂。

It's things like copper, which is obviously in demand in the energy transition, battery materials like nickel and lithium.

然后还有用于农业的矿物，比如钾盐。

And then it has minerals used for agriculture like potash.

它还有铁矿石，也有一些黄金。

It has iron ore, and it has some gold as well.

你提到它是一家涉及石油天然气和矿物的特许权使用费公司。

You mentioned it's a royalty business with oil and gas, with the minerals.

你会看到这些行业里的这些企业。

You see these businesses in these industries.

但你能谈谈它们实际上是如何融入资本市场动态的吗？

But can you talk about how they actually fit in to the capital markets dynamics?

它们为什么存在，它们代表什么。

Why they exist, what they represent.

稍微讲讲商业模式，我觉得这很独特，而且它确实触及了真正的金融角度，以及人们从那个角度怎么看待它。

Just a little bit about the business model, which, again, I think is unique, and it it speaks to kinda the true finance angle of things and how people think about it from that side of the equation.

当我们想到特许权使用费时，我们常常会想到像音乐版税这样的东西。

When we think about royalties, we often think about things like music royalties.

所以它就像对一个收入流的永久权益。

So it's like a perpetual interest in a revenue stream.

更正式的定义可能是对未来采掘作业产生的未来现金流的一种被动权益。

A more formal definition might be a passive interest on future cash flows from what will be an extractive operation in the future.

我觉得关键是我们谈论的是真正来自收入顶端而不是底端的东西。

I think what's key here is we're talking about something which really comes off the top line rather than the bottom line.

所以我们拿的是收入分成，而不是利润分成。

So we're getting a share of revenue rather than a share of profits.

这样一来，别人就更难插手干预了。

And that makes it more difficult to interfere with.

所以当我们谈论那些非常长期的项目或资产时，特许权使用费的提供方可以相当放心，不管市场怎么变，生意怎么变，需要什么样的融资，他们依然会有一项在未来具有价值的权益。

So when we're talking about very long dated assets or projects, the provider of the royalty can be fairly confident that whatever happens to markets, whatever happens to businesses, whatever financing is required, nevertheless, they will continue to have a claim which will have some value in the future.

矿山通常是相对长期的资产，因此拥有这样简单的结构，更难被干预，这一点很重要。

Mines tend to be relatively long lived assets, and therefore having a simple structure like that, which is more difficult to interfere with, is important.

所以，通过收取收入分成，它补偿了矿工所承担的地质风险。

And so it compensates for the geological risk which a miner is undertaking by taking that revenue share.

但每项特许权使用费都不一样。

But every royalty is different.

有些特许权使用费会扣除保险、运输或冶炼成本，有些则不会。

Some royalties have costs taken out in terms of insurance or transport or the cost of smelting before and some don't.

有些特许权使用费实际上是流式协议，更像是一种合同融资安排，而不是对土地的实际权益，那种权益是可以注册的。

Some royalties are in fact stream, it's more of a sort of contractual financing arrangement rather than an actual interest in land which could be registered.

这些权益金形式多样，我认为Altius的一个关键特点就是他们在设计和组合这些权益金方面经验丰富，能够最大化未来的价值。

They come in all shapes and sizes and I think one of the key features of Altius that has a huge amount of experience in terms of structuring and putting together these royalties so that you can maximize value into the future.

另一种理解权益金的方式，就是看看它们是怎么来的。

Another way of approaching what a royalty is really to think about how they came about.

想想加拿大的铁路，它们其实是靠加拿大政府出售铁路沿线土地上的矿产权益金来筹资的，这些铁路连接东西部，而那些权益金至今仍然存在。

When you think about the Canadian railways, they were actually funded by the sale by the Canadian government of mineral royalty interests on the land which the railways would go through to connect east and west, and those royalties still exist.

有趣的是，这些权益金是永久的。

Funnily enough, they are perpetual.

它们大多属于一家叫PrairieSky Royalty的公司。

They're mostly to be found in a company called PrairieSky Royalty.

Altius的权益金主要通过两种方式获得。

Altius royalties have come about through two ways.

一种是从矿山所有者或矿业公司那里直接购买，这些公司需要筹集资金来开发项目。

One, Altius has simply acquired them from owners of mines or mining companies which have needed to raise capital in order to fund development.

但Altius做的另一件事，也是它几乎独一无二的地方，就是它有一个项目生成业务。

But the other thing which Altius has done and which makes it almost unique is it has a project generation business.

所以它走出去，有一支地质学家团队，这真的是白手起家。

So it goes out, has a team of geologists, and it's real bootstrapping.

他们做地质工作，申请矿权，然后在这个矿权上设立特许权使用费，之后随着时间的推移，他们可能会把这个矿权卖给另一家公司，或者把它上市。

They do the geological work, stake a claim, structure a royalty into that claim, and then over time they might sell that claim to another company or they might list it.

所以他们最终会得到特许权使用费，并且可能持有开采该矿产权益的公司的股权。

So they end up with a royalty and potentially an ownership interest in a company which is exploiting that mineral interest.

随着时间的推移，他们可以持有或出售这些股权，也就是所有权权益，但他们往往会更长时间地持有特许权使用费。

And over time, they can hold on to or sell that equity interest, that ownership interest, but it will tend to hold on to the royalty for much longer.

所以在上一轮矿业周期中，Altius投资了，这是到2011年为止的时期。

So in the last mining cycle, Altius invested this is the period up to 2011.

Altius在项目生成交易上投资了大约3000万美元。

Altius invested about $30,000,000 in project generation deals.

所以每年大约200万到300万美元，金额不大，但它通过出售这些项目的股权收益，实现了2亿美元的变现，同时保留了相关的特许权使用费。

So rate of 2 or $3,000,000 a year, small amounts of money, but it monetized $200,000,000 from selling the equity proceeds from those while holding on to the associated royalties.

所以这就是特许权使用费如何产生的：对于矿山所有者来说，是为了筹集资金；对于像Altius这样的项目生成公司来说，是为了首先创造这个东西；或者对于政府来说，是为了出售他们拥有的土地上的矿产权益，以便完成其他项目。

So that's how royalties come into being for owners of mines to raise capital, for a project generation company like Altius to actually create the thing in the first place, or for governments to sell the mineral interests which they have in land in order for other projects to be accomplished.

这个概念我觉得真的触及到了金融学的学术理论，以及思考这些长期现金流的问题。

It's a concept that I think really gets to, like, the academic theory of finance and thinking about these extended periods of cash flows.

你说得对，你提到了很多有趣的动态，比如它是体现在收入端还是利润端，以及为什么你会在这里考虑不同的东西。

To your point, you mentioned a lot of the interesting dynamics about it being at the top line versus at the bottom line and why you would consider different things here.

我觉得你在回答的最后一部分已经回答了这个问题。

I think you answered this in the last part of that answer.

但就Altius购买这些特许权使用费或签订这些合同而言，通常是在矿山建设阶段，那时仍然存在很多风险吗？

But in terms of where Altius is buying these royalties or entering into these contracts, is it usually in the build out stage of a mine where there's still a lot of risk that exists?

我只是想知道，在矿山及其生产的整个过程中，特许权使用费通常会在哪个阶段被出售。

I'm just wondering where in the spectrum of a mine and its production that royalties will typically be sold.

你可以想象，特许权使用费的价格会根据矿山风险降低的程度而有所不同。

You can imagine the price of that royalty will differ based on how much the mine is derisked.

一旦矿山投入运营，矿主就不太愿意出售该项目的任何股权。

Once the mine is up and running, then the owner of the mine is gonna be reluctant to sell any sort of equity interest in that project.

所以通常会更早，而Altius拥有地质学专业知识，这意味着它很擅长在非常早期的阶段进行交易和构建交易，比如通常在矿山开发之前。

So it tends to be a lot earlier and Altius has that geological expertise, which means it's comfortable transacting and structuring deals at very early stage, often before mine development, for example.

这些权利金的形式多种多样，Altius 也从其他所有者那里收购过现有的权利金。

They come in all shapes and sizes and Altius has acquired existing royalties off other owners as well.

Altius 的一个很大特点就是逆周期操作。

A very big theme of Altius is just counter cyclicality.

所以当资金紧张的时候，就有机会参与进来，构建一些非常有意思的交易结构。

So when capital is scarce, there's the opportunity to get involved and structure something which is really interesting.

你能讲讲 Altius 的起源故事吗？

Can you tell me the origin story of Altius?

我觉得现在还有其他矿业公司，或者说，矿业权利金公司存在。

I think there's other mineral companies that exist or, excuse me, mineral royalty companies that exist.

你在各个行业都能找到它们。

You could find them across industries.

Altius 背后有什么故事呢？

What is the backstory with Altius?

尽管如今 Altius 已经是一家相当国际化的公司，在加拿大、巴西、阿根廷，甚至非洲的马里都有矿业权益，而且还在其他国家拥有更多处于开发前阶段的项目。

Despite being quite an international company today, and it's got interest in mines in Canada and Brazil, Argentina, even Mali in Africa, as well as even more pre production projects in other countries.

阿尔蒂斯的故事真正开始于二十九年前的一间大学宿舍里，当时一个叫布莱恩·道尔顿的地质学学生和几个同学为了赚学费，靠寻找和转卖项目来挣钱。

Altius' story really begins twenty nine years ago in a university dormitory room where a geology student called Brian Dalton and a few fellow students earned some money for themselves to fund their way through college, stalking and then reselling projects.

几年后，也就是1997年，公司上市了，筹集的资金不到一百万美元。

It IPO ed a few years later in 1997, raising less than a million dollars.

从那以后的故事就是逆周期地部署资本，现在它已经是一家价值二十亿美元的公司了。

The story since then is deploying capital countercyclically, and it's now a $2,000,000,000 company.

你这么说，听起来他们好像做得很简单。

You make it sound awfully simple in terms of the way that they approached it.

我知道其实不是这样。

I know it's not the case.

说到他们如何让自己与众不同，听起来他们是有地质学家的。

In terms of what they did to differentiate themselves, it sounds like they have geologists.

我不知道这到底算不算一个真正的差异化优势，感觉这可能是也可能不是深思熟虑的资本配置，而这在这个行业里似乎极其重要。

I don't know how much of a differentiator that actually is that feels like it could or couldn't be the thoughtful capital allocation, which seems incredibly important in this business.

但他们到底做了什么，让自己从现有的同行或者任何可能竞争这些交易的人中脱颖而出呢？

But what did they do to stand out from a peer group that existed or from anyone who might be competing over these same deals?

关键在于逆周期操作。

The key is to be countercyclical.

矿业本质上是个周期性行业，我觉得Altius的成功就在于在周期到来之前部署资金，然后在周期达到顶峰时收获资本。

Mining is inherently a cyclical business, and I think Altius' success has been to deploy capital ahead of cycles and to harvest capital as those cycles peak.

所以早在本世纪头十年的铀矿周期中，Altius就抓住了机会，并在2008、2009年左右成功卖出了铀矿资产，顺利退出。

So way back, the uranium cycle in the first decade of this century was a key part of Altius' development, which it successfully exited selling its uranium exposure in around 'eight and 'nine.

然后，我觉得这要归功于Altius非常强大的管理层、他们的长期眼光和逆周期思维，他们真的按兵不动，直到2013、2014年左右才开始寻找有现金流的特许权使用费，并在2015、2016年那几年做成了几笔大交易，当时超级周期已经结束，他们几乎是唯一能向矿业项目提供资金的人。

And then I think, and this is testament to the very strong management to Altius, its long term approach and its countercyclical mindset, it really sat on its hands until around 2013, 2014, when it started looking for cash flowing royalties and deployed into a few big deals in the middle of that decade, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, when they were really the only game in town when it came to providing capital to mining projects after the super cycle had come to an end.

你提到了他们后来卖掉的铀矿资产。

You touched on uranium exposure that they then sold.

那他们在矿产多元化方面是怎么做的呢？

How have they approached just the diversification of mineral exposure?

你在对话开头列了一长串。

And you went through a long list at the beginning of this conversation.

但总的来说，他们是怎么考虑的？是不是根据他们的资产配置，对某些周期做出判断？

But what is the general thought process in terms of are they making a call on these cycles in some way or another based on their exposure?

他们首先是一群地质学家，是特许权使用费方面的专家，但对矿种持中立态度。

They are first and foremost geologists, royalty experts, but mineral agnostic.

他们的目标是在周期低谷时投资，那时价格低，资本对项目开发商和运营商来说过于昂贵。

The aim is to invest at cyclical lows when prices are low and capital is therefore too expensive for the developers of these projects and the operators.

然后随着周期转变，当资本变得可用时，项目往往会被开发，那时价格也更高。

And then as the cycle turns, the projects tend to get developed when capital becomes available, and that's when prices are higher.

从特许权使用费的角度来看，这意味着Altius不仅受益于更高的价格，而且更有可能看到项目规模扩大、棕地机会增加，各种令人兴奋的事情发生。

From a royalty point of view, that means that Altius is benefiting not only from higher prices, but also it's more likely that that's going to see an expansion in the project size, brownfield opportunities, all sorts of exciting things happen.

而实现这些事情的资本是由其他人提供的。

And the capital to make those things happen is provided by somebody else.

所以Altius在那里收取特许权使用费，而矿山运营商或类似的人则是写支票来资助资本支出，以扩大项目规模或应对其他情况。

So Altius sits there earning the royalty and the operator of the mine or someone like that is the one writing the check to fund the CapEx to see the project scope enlarge or whatever happens.

所以在矿种方面，它早期参与了加拿大Voisey's Bay项目的镍矿。

So in terms of minerals, it's been involved, you know, in the early days in nickel in the Voisey's Bay project in Canada.

我提到了铀。

I mentioned uranium.

它还涉足了加拿大的动力煤和钾肥。

It's got into thermal coal in Canada and potash.

它对加拿大大部分营养物和Mosaic公司的钾肥资产拥有特许权使用费，这些资产占全球钾肥产量的25%。

It has royalties over most of nutrients and mosaics Canadian potash assets, which represent 25% of global potash production.

这些矿山供应了美国使用的90%的钾肥。

And these mines supply 90% of the potash used in The US.

这些特许权使用费是他们在2014年收购的，剩余寿命至少还有五十年。

Those were royalties they acquired in 2014, and they have a remaining life of at least fifty years.

在过去几十年里，产量每年增长约2.5%。

And production has grown about two and a half percent annually over the last few decades.

这就是钾肥，支撑着世界日益增长的农业需求。

That's potash supporting the world's growing need for agriculture.

还有黄金、锂，以及可再生能源，这些我们稍后可以聊。

There's gold, there's lithium, and then there's also renewable energy, which we can come on to talk to you.

关于地域多元化，还有一个问题。

One more question on the diversification geographies.

它们到处都是。

They're everywhere.

这也正好和这些矿物的开采地点有关。

That also just happens to do with where these minerals can be mined.

当你考虑他们在海外的扩张时，这是否是自然而然的事情，因为他们通常与那些位于他们熟悉地区的公司合作？

When you think about their expansion abroad, is that a natural thing in terms of their working with companies that are generally based in regions that they're familiar with?

你显然可以描绘出这样的画面：一旦你进入某些发展中国家、新兴市场国家，风险就会增加，以及那里的运营可能会如何运作。

You can obviously paint the picture of there being more risk once you move out into certain developing countries, emerging market countries, and just how the operations might work there.

但实际情况如何，这是否和他们考虑矿物风险的方式非常相似？

But how has that gone, and is it very similar story to how they think about the mineral exposure?

因为版税所有者比矿业运营商更被动一些。

Because a royalty owner is a little more passive than a mining operator.

我认为他们更关注政治风险，以及他们执行这种合同权益或土地权益的能力。

I think they are more alert to political risk, for example, and their ability to enforce this contractual interest or this interest in land.

所以这确实使得他们的版税更可能出现在发达国家的司法管辖区，从加拿大开始，然后向南延伸。

So it does make it more likely that their royalties are gonna be found in developed world jurisdictions starting in Canada and then going south from there.

他们在马里确实有一个锂矿特许权使用费，这是非常令人兴奋的，是通过他们最近收购的一家公司获得的，但他们大部分的特许权使用费往往集中在发达国家的司法管辖区。

They do have a lithium royalty in Mali, which is hugely exciting through a company which they've recently acquired, but most of their royalties would tend to be in developed world jurisdictions.

然后，在LTS投资组合中，不同司法管辖区之间显然也有分散投资，同时也在交易对手和矿产本身方面进行了分散。

And then there's obviously diversification between jurisdictions within the LTS portfolio and diversification also in terms of counterparties and minerals themselves.

所以，分散投资是Altius的一个关键特点，使其成为对想要简单接触矿业和矿业公司但不知从何开始的投资者来说，相对有吸引力的一站式选择。

So diversification is a key feature of Altius and makes it a relatively attractive one stop shop for investors who want some simple exposure to mining and mining companies, but they really know where to begin.

接下来谈谈可再生能源业务，我了解到这还附带一个融资部门。你能讲讲他们在可再生能源方面的战略是什么，以及这与他们以往的做法有何不同吗？

To get to the renewable business, which I also understand there's a financing arm that's attached to this, Can you walk through what the strategy there is in renewables and how it may differ from what they've historically done?

一般来说，特许权使用费是对土地的一种权益，而可再生能源显然与太阳和风有关，这些很难主张所有权。

Generally, a royalty is an interest in land, and renewables are obviously to do with the sun and the wind, which are difficult to claim ownership of.

Altius一直相当创新，设计出知识产权，使其能够获得某种合同权益，而不是土地权益。

Altius has been fairly innovative devising the intellectual property to allow it to take some sort of contractual interest, which is not an interest in land.

这大约是在十年前就开始做了。

It did this almost ten years ago now.

他们所做的实际上是把自己变成了或创造了一种融资产品，有点像夹层产品，为可再生能源开发商提供资金，以资助他们在整合土地权利、许可证和合同以组建项目的那一阶段，之后他们再去筹集融资。

And what it's done is it's effectively turned itself into or has created a financing product, which is a little like a mezzanine product, which provides capital to renewable developers to fund that stage in their life cycle where they are assembling the land rights and the permits and contracts to put together a project which they then go out and raise financing for.

但那种早期阶段，几乎没什么可展示的，融资也更困难。

But that sort of earlier stage is something where there's very little to show and more difficult to finance.

不过，因为Altius能够在项目后续开发中保留权益，所以它可以在这些投产前的项目中获得特许权使用费权益。

But because Altius is able to retain an interest in the project which is subsequently developed, it's able to take a royalty interest in these pre production projects.

所以现在，它在美国的发电项目上拥有特许权使用费，总计2.9吉瓦，还有1.7吉瓦在建，以及14吉瓦处于开发阶段。

So now it has royalties over power generation projects in The US totaling 2.9 gigawatts with a further 1.7 gigawatts under construction and 14 gigawatts in development stage projects.

它这样做的方式是，最初上市了一家名为Altius Renewable Royalties的公司，以引入更多资本来分散风险，并确保自己不会过于集中地暴露在风险中。

And it's done this in a way where it initially listed a business called Altius Renewable Royalties to bring in a little more capital to diversify its risk and to make sure it didn't have too concentrated an exposure.

但与最终会枯竭的矿山不同，可再生能源项目理论上可以永远持续下去。

But unlike mines, which eventually deplete, a renewable project theoretically lasts forever.

这只是这种逆向思维和创造性应用特许权使用费方法的又一个例子，也反映了Altius在资本稀缺时利用资本需求的能力。

It's just another example of this sort of contrarian and creative application of the royalty approach and reflecting Altius' ability to exploit the need for capital when capital is scarce.

你提到他们为可再生能源融资创建了另一个载体。

You mentioned they created another vehicle for the renewable financing.

那是一个上市载体，比如一个独立的证券吗？

Was that a listed vehicle, like a separate security?

对。

Yeah.

他们上市了一家公司，叫Altius Renewable Royalties。

They floated a business called Altius Renewable Royalties.

Altius保留了那家上市公司的大部分股权。

Altius retained a majority stake in that listed company.

然后那家公司跟一家私募股权公司合资，各占50%的股份。

And then that company had a 50% stake in a joint venture with a private equity firm.

最终提供版税的就是那个合资公司。

It was that vehicle which was ultimately providing the royalty.

为了理解这个业务，我猜是不是跟之前类似，资金是提前提供的。

To frame this business, I assume it's similar where the the financing is provided upfront.

那笔初始融资在某个阶段，当资金筹集起来用于建设时会被偿还，但他们保留版税。

That initial financing would be taken out at some stage when the capital is gathered to build out construction, but they maintain the royalties.

这跟你之前描述的股权加版税的例子类似，只不过这次基本上是夹层融资加版税的形式，对吗？

Is it similar to one of the earlier examples you described about the equity plus royalty, except in this case, it's in the form of essentially mezzanine plus royalty?

差不多。

It's similar.

他们实际上并不会在发电项目里持有股权。

They don't actually end up with an equity interest in the generation project.

他们只拥有特许权使用费本身。

They only have the royalty itself.

但中间有个阶段，他们已经提供了资金，而项目还不存在。

But there is an intermediate stage where they've provided the capital, the project doesn't yet exist.

所以实际上他们会对一系列不同的项目拥有债权。

And so they will actually have a claim over a range of different projects.

然后特许权使用费会一直设置在那里，直到他们达到某个最低IRR门槛。

And then royalties are put in place until they've achieved some minimum IRR hurdle.

这就是让事情确定下来的关键。

And that's what crystallizes things.

从投资者的角度来看，你觉得这个可再生能源业务和剩下的那些，我称之为传统矿产业务，有本质上的不同吗？

From an investor's perspective, do you view that renewables business drastically different from the remainder of the, what I would call, legacy traditional minerals business?

它的多元化程度更低。

It's less diversified.

你依赖的是单一结构，但自成立以来一直非常成功。

You are relying there on a single structure, but it has been hugely successful since establishment.

那个上市实体实际上已经被私有化了。

The listed vehicle has actually been taken private.

Altius找到了合作伙伴来将公司退市，而Altius自己保留了股份，以确保有足够的资金来支持面前不断增长的机会管道。

Altius has found a partner to delist the company while Altius has held on to its own stake in order to make sure that there is sufficient capital available to fund the growing pipeline of opportunities which are in front of it.

所以我认为这反映了它取得的成功。

So I think that's a measure of the success it's had.

我在想，当我们谈到那个之前上市的实体时。

I was wondering when we were talking about that previously listed vehicle.

感觉那里还有别的东西，但我想那可能已经结束了我的故事。

Felt like there was something else there, but I think that may have finished the story for me there.

接下来谈谈商业模式，我觉得在我脑子里挺简单的，但我想的是，一旦我们开始生产并拿到那笔版税。

Just to transition into the business model, I think it's fairly straightforward in my mind, but I think of this once we're producing and we're getting that royalty.

这基本上就是一个量乘以价的公式。

It is essentially a volume times price equation.

这两个因素都可能波动。

Both of those things can swing.

但这样理解这个业务对吗？

But is that the right way to think about the business?

我觉得这么说挺合理的。

I think that's fair.

从那个角度看，事情就简单多了。

It's pretty simple from that point.

然后，当然，如果风力发电机被替换，或者太阳能板被更新、更高效的技术取代，Altius 仍然会对那些新设施收取特许权使用费。

And then, of course, if the wind turbine is replaced or the solar panels are succeeded by some new, more efficient technology, then Altius would continue to have a royalty over those new facilities.

这可能是永久的。

It is potentially forever.

从宏观层面看，如果现在整体审视 Altius，你如何看待它在商品、收入来源等方面的多元化？

At a high level today, if you look at Altius broadly, how do you think about the diversification across commodities, revenue streams, whatever it might be?

你有所有这些不同的版税收入流，价格乘以数量。

You have all of these different royalty streams, price times volume.

你会不会觉得在某个类别上的风险特别大，而其他类别则相对较小？

Do you think about very extreme exposure in one category versus the other?

你会怎么简化一下Altius的收入风险呢？

How would you just simplify that in terms of the revenue exposure for Altius?

公司很清楚需要多元化。

The company is conscious of the need for diversification.

所以我们会引入外部资本，以避免过度集中，因为它面前有特别有吸引力的机会。

So we'll bring in external capital in order to avoid excessive concentration simply because it has particularly attractive opportunities in front of it.

所以它在保持矿产多元化方面做得很好，最近收购了一家公司，这家公司在2017、2018年作为早期战略投资者就已经获得了种子资金。

So it's been very good at maintaining the mineral diversification, most recently with the acquisition of a company which had actually seed funded back in 2017, 2018 as a very early strategic investor.

这家公司叫Lithium Royalty Corporation。

This business called Lithium Royalty Corporation.

去年年底，它收购了那家公司的剩余股份，并在锂价大涨的时候将其退市，现在的锂价是当时的两倍。

At the end of last year, it acquired the rest of that company and delisted it at a great time in terms of the lithium price, which is now double what it was then.

所以再次强调，这是很好的逆周期投资。

So again, great countercyclical investing.

但在多元化方面，大宗商品是周期性的，而且波动很大。

But in terms of diversification, commodities are cyclical and volatile.

所以如果你想做逆周期投资，至少应该分散投资，避免过度集中在某些大宗商品、地区或交易对手上。

So if you're trying to be countercyclical, you should at least be diversifying away against commodities or jurisdictions or or counterparties or whatever.

他们有没有对冲大宗商品价格风险？

Do they ever hedge commodity price exposure?

据我所知没有。

Not as far as I'm aware.

投资者想要的就是大宗商品价格的敞口。

Investors want the exposure to the commodity price.

有道理。

That makes sense.

这类业务的好处在于，你不需要承担矿山本身带来的高昂运营费用。

The beauty of these businesses is that you don't have the heavy operating expenses associated with the mine itself.

那么，到底有哪些管理费用，或者说从收入到利润或最终收益之间，都扣掉了些什么？

What does go into any overhead expenses, or what gets between revenue and profit or earnings at the end of the day?

Altius实际存在的主要开支有哪些？

What are the major expenses that actually exist in Altius?

这个问题问得好，因为在矿山层面，资本支出和运营支出都是别人在开支票。

That's a great point because at the mine level is somebody else writing the checks both for CapEx but also OpEx.

所以基本上就是免费搭车，你剩下的只是这些已经付过费的版税所附带的内在期权价值。

So there really is a free ride, and all you're left with is the embedded optionality from these royalties which you've paid for.

这些矿山的寿命很长，所以那个期权的价值非常高。

These mine lives are very long, so the value of that optionality is very high.

就Altius本身而言，它只有17名员工。

In terms of Altius itself, it has a headcount of just 17 people.

其中一半是财务行政人员，一半是技术人员，这包括五人的项目开发团队。

Half of those are finance administration and half of them are technical, And that would include the five man project generation team.

这是一个相当精简的运营。

It's a pretty lean operation.

我们不用付太多工资。

We're not paying for too many salaries.

这确实是一个很漂亮的商业模式，尤其是当你有一定规模之后，能做的事情就更多了。

It is truly a beautiful business model, particularly once you have some scale to it in terms of what can be done.

虽然不容易，但确实是个很漂亮的商业模式。

It does not make it easy, but it is a beautiful business model.

关于资本配置和现金流，你提到过，他们似乎对收购什么、什么时候收购，以及变现什么、什么时候变现，都考虑得非常周到。

On capital allocation and cash flow, you've referenced, it seems like they're very thoughtful about not just what they acquire and when they acquire it, but what they monetize and when they monetize it.

对于股东，他们会不会通过回购股票、分红等方式来回报？

In terms of shareholders, do they step in with buybacks, dividends, anything along those lines?

比如，在资本配置方面，这也是考虑的一部分吗？

Like, is that a piece of the equation as well when it comes to capital allocation?

在考虑收购新资产和回购股票之间，他们的决策框架是怎样的？历史上有什么做法？

And what is the history there in terms of their framework for thinking about acquiring new assets versus buying back shares at moments in time?

也许值得简单介绍一下创始人。

It might be worth just saying a few words about the founder.

我提到过布莱恩·道尔顿二十九年前在大学宿舍里创立了这家公司。

So I mentioned Brian Dalton founding the business twenty nine years ago in his college dormitory.

他现在仍然是首席执行官。

He remains the chief executive.

他今年53岁，刚签了一份新的五年合同。

He's 53 years old today, just signed a new five year contract.

他对公司至关重要，至少持有2%的股权。

He is key to the business, owns 2% of the equity at least.

他住在纽芬兰，那里离多伦多和伦敦的距离差不多。

Based in Newfoundland, is as far from Toronto as it is close to London, give or take.

这真的体现了布莱恩带来的独立思考，也正是阿尔蒂乌斯的特色。

So really a sign of the independent thinking which Brian brings with him and which defines Altius.

布莱恩是地质学家，想问题非常长远，真正投入其中，而且他在资本运作上展现了创新思维，还有很强的逆周期意识。

Brian is a geologist, very long term thinker, real skin in the game, and has demonstrated an innovative approach to deploying capital and a real countercyclical mindset.

在公司历史上，他们确实发行过股票来为某些收购融资。

So over the history of the company, it has issued equity to fund certain acquisitions.

它也会在股价便宜的时候回购股票。

It's also bought back shares when they're cheap.

它在某些时候负债相当高，而在其他时候负债较少。

It's had quite a lot of debt at certain moments and less debt at other moments.

目前它是净现金状态，因为出售了几个从项目生成业务中产生的大型股权。

It's currently net cash, having sold a couple of very large equity interests which rose out of the project generation business.

没有固定的资本配置框架。

There isn't a rigid capital allocation framework.

这确实是一个管理团队，他们已经赢得了做出这些决策的权利，并且以明智和逆周期的方式行事。

This is really a management team which has earned the right to take those decisions and to do the in an intelligent and countercyclical way.

关于回购，有没有提到他们做出决定的原因？

In terms of the buybacks, was there any reference to what made them decide?

显然，相对于市场上可用的机会，存在某种估值或机会，以及为什么它可能具有增值性。

Obviously, there's some valuation or opportunity relative to what's available in the market and why it might be accretive.

但他们有没有提到任何价格与账面价值比或任何类型的估值指标，使他们考虑回购机会相对于市场上其他投资？

But did they reference anything price to book or any type of valuation metric that would make them consider the buyback opportunity relative to other investments in the marketplace?

他们进行回购时，提到过相对于净资产价值的折价。

When they've done buybacks, they've talked about being a discount to net asset value.

我觉得他们心里真正想的是投资组合中蕴含的潜在选择权，这些会在未来显现出来。

I think really what's in their head is knowledge of the embedded optionality in the portfolio, which will materialize in the future.

你提到债务这一点，我觉得版税收入流对于筹集债务资本非常有利，因为其可见性，以及为什么信用投资者会喜欢以这些作为贷款抵押。

And your point on debt, I mean, royalty streams are very advantageous for raising debt capital because of the visibility and why a a credit investor would love to lend against those.

你提到目前是净现金状态。

You mentioned it's net cash today.

当他们看到债务水平上升时，通常是与收购有关，还是他们用债务做其他事情？

When they're seeing those debt levels rise, is it typically associated with acquisitions or anything else they use debt for?

我觉得有时候，当债权人愿意提供杠杆时，企业很容易被吸引去引入杠杆。

I think sometimes it can be really tempting to bring in leverage to a business where creditors are happy to provide that leverage.

这是为了抓住机会进行收购融资。

It's been opportunistic to fund acquisitions.

债务不仅仅是为了降低回报。

Debt is not a way simply to reduce returns.

鉴于Altius作为寻求筹集权利金资本的首选地位，他们必须保持机会主义，以便在机会出现时抓住这些绝佳机遇。

Given the position Altius has as the first port of call for anyone who's looking to raise royalty capital, They need to be opportunistic to be able to take advantage of these incredible opportunities as they arise.

那么，可再生能源融资业务，我猜，你提到过在一段时间内拥有公开上市实体，但你知道，利用那个载体来吸引资本以资助融资业务。

And does the renewable financing business, I guess, the way you described having the publicly listed entity for a period of time, but, you know, having that vehicle in terms of attracting capital to finance the financing business.

除了在资产负债表或现金流方面，是否有其他独特之处，比如因为处于早期阶段而占用大量现金，或者类似的情况，从而在实质上改变业务状况？

Is there anything else that it does to the balance sheet or cash flows that are unique in terms of tying up a lot of cash, maybe because it's earlier stage or anything along those lines which change the profile of the business in any material way?

有趣的是，在过去几年里，Altius已经将其在内华达州一个金矿项目中的股权权益变现。

What's quite interesting is over the last couple of years, Altius has monetized its equity interest in a gold project in Nevada.

该项目处于开发前阶段，但由AngloGold所有。

It's predevelopment, but it's owned by AngloGold.

这个权益最初是在其项目生成业务中以40万美元获得的，最近以2.5亿美元将其部分敞口出售给了Franco Nevada，同时保留了重要的权利金权益。

This is an interest which it originally acquired in its project generation business for $400,000 and it's recently sold part of its exposure to that to Franco Nevada for $250,000,000 while retaining a significant royalty interest for itself.

它还向另一家贵金属权利金公司Triple Flag出售了单独的权利金，约2亿美元，相对于原始投资而言，回报惊人，同时保留了持续敞口，并真正加强了其资产负债表。

And it's also sold a separate royalty to Triple Flag, which is another precious metals royalty company for about $200,000,000 A phenomenal return on the original investment while retaining continuing exposure to it and really strengthening its balance sheet.

未来因其他资本部署机会而稀释的风险降低了。

The risk of future dilution from other opportunities to deploy capital is reduced.

所以这真的是项目生成业务运作的一个很好的例子，而且这些版税甚至还没有开始支付。

So a really good example of the project generation business working, and the royalties have not yet even started paying out.

所以这非常令人兴奋。

So that's very exciting.

他们在以那些价格变现后还保留了权益，这让我有点心疼，但我相信作为投资者，这非常有趣，而且确实体现了那个机会背后的投资逻辑。

The fact that they retained an interest after realizing those sales at those prices makes it hurt a little bit more for me, but I'm sure as an investor, it's quite interesting and really speaks to the thesis behind that opportunity.

真的很有意思。

Really interesting.

我们聊完之后，我需要再读一些相关资料。

Something I need to read a bit more about after our conversation.

当你考虑这个业务的风险时，会有商品价格的周期性，我们之前已经讨论过。

When you think about risks with this business, you're gonna have cyclicality and commodity prices, which we've talked about.

资本配置感觉是最重要的事情。

Capital allocation feels like the most important thing.

作为投资者，你还会指出其他什么风险吗？

Is there anything else you would point to just in terms of risks that you think about as an investor?

你刚才说的那些风险里，可能还得加上国有化征收这一条，不过我觉得这个风险不大，因为公司主要业务都在发达国家。

You might add expropriation to that list you just gave, but I think that's mitigated by being mainly in developed world jurisdictions.

所以这方面的风险比一些矿业公司要小。

So less of a risk there than we've seen with some mining companies.

对我来说，最大的风险之一就是它可能会被贵金属版税公司收购。

I think for me, one of the biggest risks is that it gets bid for by a precious metal royalty company.

Altius的股价大概是其资产净值的1.4倍。

Altius trades at around 1.4 times net asset value.

这个溢价是合理的，因为那些已经能看到但还没投产的项目，本身就带有潜在的选择权价值。

And you can justify that premium because of the embedded optionality in projects which are visible but are not yet producing.

贵金属版税公司的股价通常是其资产净值的两倍以上，所以它们的资金成本要低得多。

Precious metal royalty companies trade over two times net asset value, so they have much lower cost capital.

它们可能会利用这个优势来收购Altius。

They might take advantage of that to potentially acquire Altius.

别忘了，Altius其实也有一些黄金相关的业务。

Remember Altius has some sort of gold exposure.

如果他们能收购Altius，并把自己的估值倍数套用到Altius上，那对他们来说就是个机会。

If they could acquire Altius and apply that their own multiple to Altius, then that would be an opportunity for them.

而在我看来，那会是个风险，因为如果这个逆周期价值创造者被一个只是玩着定投游戏的人收购，那真是太可惜了。

And that would be a risk as far as I'm concerned because it would be a real pity to see, you know, this countercyclical value creator required by someone who's just playing at dollar cost averaging game.

贵金属业务为什么能享有两倍于资产净值的溢价？

What explains the premium for the precious metals businesses in terms of the two times NAV?

这确实有点让人摸不着头脑。

It's a bit of a head scratcher.

我觉得如果你去问他们，他们会辩解说，这些资产最终的生命周期和规模总是比资产净值所反映的要长得多、大得多。

I think if you were to ask them, they would justify it by saying that all always end up having a much longer life and a greater scope than is reflected in the net asset value.

它们也是投资者获得贵金属敞口的一种方式。

They are also a means for investors to get exposure to the underlying precious metal.

那也有道理。

That also makes sense.

真有意思。

Fascinating.

这是一家非常有意思的公司，我觉得不管从哪个角度聊，我们都能聊上很久很久。

A very interesting business and one that I think any which angle that we took it at, we could talk for extremely extended periods of time.

不过我觉得你已经把方方面面都讲得很好了。

But I think you've done a great job covering everything.

每次我们结束这类对话时，总喜欢聊聊那些你可能会带走并应用到其他地方的经验。

When we close-up these conversations, we always like to hit on the lessons that you could potentially take away and apply elsewhere.

你觉得Altius身上有哪些特别突出的经验，是你在别的地方也能用上的？

What would you say about Altius that stands out in terms of applicable lessons that you might be able to use elsewhere?

像Brian Dalton这样优秀的管理者真的很难遇到，几乎是独一无二的。

Strong managers like Brian Dalton are difficult to come across, almost unique.

第二点，像他们那样采取长期视角，这一点非常重要。

Number two, taking a long term approach as they have and do is really important.

而且我觉得这能发现别人发现不了的机会。

And I think that surfaces opportunities which other people wouldn't be able to surface.

我觉得项目生成业务就是最好的例子。

And I think the project generation business exemplifies that.

逆周期性贯穿了Altius的整个策略。

Countercyclicality is written throughout Altius' playbook.

而这正是它的核心所在。

And that's really what it's all about.

内嵌的期权性。

Embedded optionality.

当你接触到寿命极长的矿业项目时，未来有太多可能发生的事情。

When you have exposure to very long lived mining projects, there is so much which can happen in the future.

公司提到，基于已经掌握的项目，到2030年将其特许权使用费收入从去年的约60美元增加到2亿美元。

And the company talks about tripling its royalty revenue from about 60 last year to $200,000,000 by 2030 on the basis of projects which are already in hand.

而在这之后，还有更大的项目。

And then beyond that, there are even bigger projects.

所以那里有很大的上升空间。

So there is a lot of upside there.

Altius也是跨领域、跨资产类别中存在阿尔法的一个例子。

Altius is also an example of the alpha that exists between silos, between asset classes.

它既不是矿业公司，也不是企业集团。

It's neither a mining company nor a conglomerate.

它是独一无二的，因此被很多投资者忽视，可能也不太被理解。

It's one of a kind and therefore overlooked by a lot of investors, maybe not so well understood.

这对任何愿意下功夫的人来说，都是一个真正的机会。

And that's a real opportunity for anyone who can do the work.

这些就是要点。

Those would be the key points to hit on.

我很喜欢。

I love it.

特别是最后一点，它并不明确属于某个类别，而是结合了很多不同的方面。

Particularly that last lesson where this doesn't fit clearly into a specific bucket, it combines a lot of different aspects.

但归根结底，我还是回到学术的投资方法，从版税代表什么、内含期权性以及很多你能在这家公司身上清晰看到的概念来思考。

But at the end of the day, I go back to the academic approach to investing and thinking about this very clearly in terms of what a royalty represents and embedded optionality and a lot of these concepts that you see pretty cleanly in this one.

谢谢你，Luke。

So thank you, Luke.

这真是一次非常精彩的对话。

It has been a fascinating conversation again.

非常感谢你加入我们。

Really appreciate you joining us.

我也很享受。

It's been a treat.

谢谢，马特。

Thanks, Matt.

想收听更多关于从Costco到Visa再到Moderna的深度分析节目，或者订阅我们的每周摘要，请访问joincolossus.com。

To find more episodes of breakdowns ranging from Costco to Visa to Moderna or to sign up for our weekly summary, check out joincolossus.com.

网址是joincolossus.com。

That's joincolossus.com.