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本集由Portrait赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Portrait.
这是我用来准备今天这一集以及所有商业拆解节目的AI研究系统。
It's the AI research system that I used to prepare for today's episode and for all business breakdowns episodes.
Portrait由前买方投资者打造,他们深知优秀的投资不在于从低质量渠道获取更多信息。
Portrait was built by former buy side investors, and they understand great investing isn't just about having more information from low quality sources.
而在于拥有正确组织起来的正确信息。
It's about having the right information organized the right way.
如果你常听这个节目,就会明白尽职调查包含很多方面。
And if you listen to the show, you appreciate diligence consists of many things.
比如深入研究一家公司的历史,分析竞争格局中的微妙变化,追踪围绕你投资逻辑的关键信号。
Diving into the history of a business, framing the nuance competitive dynamics, tracking key signposts around your thesis.
过去,这些工作会占用大量你本就不多的时间。
And historically, that would take up material time that you do not have.
但Portrait就像是为你的团队增添了一支分析师军团。
But Portrait is basically like adding an army of analysts to your team.
它背后是一个专为投资研究流程设计的AI系统。
It's powered by an AI system specifically designed for investment research workflows.
所以你能获得更深入的创意生成。
So you get nuanced idea generation.
Portrait会分析我们在这档节目中讨论的那些定性因素,帮你找出符合你分析框架的企业。
Portrait assesses the same types of qualitative attributes that we discuss on this show, and that can help identify businesses which fit your frameworks.
Portrait还能自动生成研究报告。
Portrait also customizes research report generation.
我用Portrait提前生成了背景资料,梳理了看空的核心论点,为今天的讨论做好了铺垫。
And I used Portrait to generate a primer and lay out bold bear cases ahead of today's episode to help frame the conversation.
第三,它有智能的策略监控功能,每天会分析成千上万个产业链数据点,提炼出关键洞察,推动业务决策。
And third, there's intelligent thesis monitoring, and that's where Portrait assesses thousands of data points across value chains each day, extracting the insights, driving the business.
这些工作过去通常要花上好几个小时。
Again, all this work would typically take hours and hours and hours.
现在,一切就在你指尖上。
It's at your fingertips now.
立即访问 portraitresearch.com 开始您的免费试用。
Visit portraitresearch.com to start your free trial today.
这里是《商业拆解》。
This is Business Breakdowns.
《商业拆解》是一档深入剖析单一企业的访谈节目,邀请投资者和经营者分享他们的洞察。
Business Breakdowns is a series of conversations with investors and operators diving deep into a single business.
每期节目,我们都会探讨企业的历史、商业模式、竞争优势,以及它成功的关键所在。
For each business, we explore its history, its business model, its competitive advantages, and what makes it tick.
我们相信,每个企业都藏着值得投资者和经营者学习的经验与秘密,而我们的任务就是把这些发现带给你。
We believe every business has lessons and secrets that investors and operators can learn from, and we are here to bring them to you.
想收听更多《商业拆解》的节目,请访问 joincolossus.com。
To find more episodes of breakdowns, check out joincolossus.com.
节目中主持人和嘉宾表达的所有观点,仅代表他们个人的意见。
All opinions expressed by hosts and podcast guests are solely their own opinions.
主持人、嘉宾及其所属机构或关联方,可能持有本节目讨论的证券头寸。
Hosts, podcast guests, their employers, or affiliates may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
本播客内容仅作信息参考,不应作为投资决策的依据。
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
我是马特·拉塞尔,今天我们要深入剖析Auto1这家公司。
This is Matt Russell, and today we are breaking down Auto1.
表面上看,Auto1听起来很像欧洲版的Carvana。
On the surface, Auto1 will sound very much like a European Carvana.
但今天我的嘉宾穆特——Sandstone的联合创始人兼首席投资官——会详细说明Auto1究竟和美国同类公司,甚至欧洲竞争对手有哪些关键区别。
But my guest today, Moot, cofounder and CIO of Sandstone, will get into what exactly differentiates Auto1 from any of The US analogs and even its European competition.
我们会聊到欧洲二手车市场的现状、跨国运营的动态,以及这些如何为Auto1创造机会;还会探讨他们的融资模式,看看他们如何处理我们通常在Carvana身上看到的次级贷款风险,以及更多内容。
So we get into the European used car market, the cross country dynamics, and how that's an opportunity for Auto1, and how they approach financing so that subprime risk that we often associate with Carvana, what's different there at Auto1, and much, much more.
接下来,一起来深入了解Auto1这家公司。
So please enjoy this breakdown of Auto1.
哈里森,很高兴今天能邀请你来聊聊Auto1。
Harrison, I am excited to have you here to talk Auto1 today.
我相信我们的美国听众可能对这个名字不太熟悉,但我觉得它和美国投资者非常熟悉的一家公司很像。
I don't think this is going to be a name that our US listener base is too familiar with, but I think it resembles a name that our US investor base is very familiar with.
你能先做个正式的介绍,说说 Auto1 是做什么的吗?简单概述一下,我们再深入展开。
So you can give the formal introduction to what Auto1 is as a business, some brief overview to get us started, and we can dive in from there.
嗨,Matt。
Hi, Matt.
很高兴能来参加这个节目。
Great to be on the show.
我很期待能深入聊聊 Auto1 这个独特却常被低估的生意。
Looking forward to going deep on a very unique and we think underappreciated business of Auto1.
人们有时把 Auto1 称为欧洲版的 Carvana,它是欧洲最大的垂直整合型在线二手车交易平台。
So sometimes referred to as the Carvana of Europe, Auto1 is Europe's largest vertically integrated online marketplace for the buying and selling of used vehicles.
简单来说,它把想卖车的人和想买车的经销商或消费者连接起来。
At the simplest level, it connects people who wanna sell a car with dealers and consumers who are looking to buy one.
但这种说法其实远远没体现出它实际的运作方式,也完全没突出它和你熟悉的普通二手车分类平台有多不一样。
But that simplicity significantly undersells how the business actually operates and how differentiated it is from a traditional marketplace like your Auto Classified that you'd be familiar with.
它的商业模式很特别,因为它会直接从想卖车的个人手里把车买下来。
The business model is unique in that it actually buys the cars itself from those consumers who are looking to sell.
它会把这些车记入自己的资产负债表。
It takes that car onto its own balance sheet.
接着,车辆会经过它自有的物流和整备网络处理,然后卖给经销商——这一点和Carvana不同——或者直接卖回给消费者。
It then moves the car through its fully owned and operated logistics and refurbishment network, then sells that car to either dealers, which is unique from the Carvana business model, or back to consumers.
最后,它还会为最终买家提供贷款服务。
And ultimately, it also provides financing to the end buyer as well.
这种全产业链整合是理解Auto1的关键,因为它让公司对价格、效率和用户体验拥有远超普通交易平台或分类广告模式的控制力。
The vertical integration of the business is is key to understand because it gives Auto1 much tighter control over price, speed, and customer experience that a pure marketplace or classifieds model could just never match.
要了解Auto1的规模,去年他们通过平台交易了大约84万辆车,平均每天超过2300辆。
To give you a sense of the massive scale of Auto1, last year, they traded about 840,000 vehicles through the platform, which is more than 2,300 vehicles a day.
业务覆盖欧洲大陆30个国家,而且目前在欧洲,几乎没有其他公司能以如此规模运作这种模式。
They did this across 30 countries in Continental Europe, and really they're the only company operating this model at any meaningful scale in Europe.
对美国听众来说,最自然的对比对象当然是Carvana,这种类比在大方向上是成立的。
The obvious comparison particularly for US listeners is obviously Carvana, and this is directionally correct in many ways.
但我想先强调两个关键的不同点。
But there's two key differences that I'd highlight off the bat.
首先,从市场背景来看。
Firstly, it's just from a market backdrop perspective.
欧洲相比美国要分散得多,运营难度也大得多,而美国则是一个更统一、全国性的市场。
Europe as compared to The US is far more fragmented and operationally difficult than The US, which is a much more homogenous and national market.
这当然给Auto1带来了挑战,但也有不少优势,值得深入探讨。
This obviously has challenges to Auto1, but also a number of benefits which are worth diving into.
其次,Auto1并不依赖次级贷款业务获得显著利润,而你知道也好,不知道也罢,次级贷款正是Carvana的重要利润来源,同时也引发了大量关于信贷风险和敞口的争议。
And then the second is Auto1 doesn't derive any material profitability from subprime financing, which as you may or may not know is a significant profit driver for Carvana, but also the source of a lot of debate around credit risk and exposure.
最后我想强调的一点,对我们Sandstone来说非常重要,那就是Auto1至今仍由联合创始人克里斯蒂安·博德曼亲自掌管。
Probably the last thing that I'd highlight, which is very important to how we think about investments at Sandstone, is that Auto1 is still run by its co founder Christian Boerderman.
他有着非常宏大的长期规划。
He's got very ambitious long term plans.
他年纪还轻,目前仍持有公司超过10%的股份。
He's a relatively young guy and he still owns over 10% of the business.
所以,一个由创始人领导、在巨大市场中占据主导地位、且前景广阔的增长机会——这正是我们非常看好的组合。
So that combination of a founder led company, dominant position in a very large market, and a long growth opportunity ahead of it is an exciting setup for us.
你喜欢用这么委婉的方式谈论次贷争议,这点我很欣赏,而且我们也不用深究,这一开始就挺清楚的。
I like how you frame that subprime debate in very politically correct terms, and we won't have to dive too deep into that, which is good to know right off the bat.
你之前提到欧洲市场,让我特别感兴趣的是,居然有家公司能在欧洲30个市场同时运营。
Your prior point on the European market, it's very interesting to me that you have a player that is operating in 30 markets in Europe.
美国的玩家,比如Carvana和CarMax,明显只专注于美国或北美市场。
You have The US players, Carvana, CarMax, who seem US or North American based very specifically.
这说明地理因素在其中起了关键作用。
So that tells me there's something about geography which looks different.
你能再详细说说欧洲的二手车市场吗?
Can you get into a bit more about the European used car market?
当然可以。
Absolutely.
要理解Auto1为什么能成功,先得说清楚普通人卖二手车的传统体验是怎样的。
I think to understand why Auto1 works, it helps to level set and frame what the traditional consumer experience is of selling a used car.
这种体验在全球大多数市场都差不多。
This is the same across most markets globally.
如果你卖过车,就会知道,这几乎在全球各地都是一段糟糕的经历。
And if you've ever sold one, you'd know that also almost universally, it's a pretty terrible experience.
从这点出发,我们可以具体聊聊欧洲市场,以及Auto1是怎么不一样的。
I think from there, we can go into the specifics of Europe and how Auto1 is different.
在全球范围内,这都是一段糟糕的经历。
Globally, it's a terrible experience.
我觉得每个市场都是这样。
That's something that's the case in every market, I think so.
我们在渠道调研中听到的反馈非常一致,个人经历也是如此。
Very consistent feedback during our channel checks and also personal experience.
作为消费者,过去你只有两种选择来卖车。
So as a consumer, you had historically two options to sell a car.
第一种是私下交易,也就是个人对个人,通常通过在线分类广告完成,但过程非常痛苦。
The first was to sell the car privately, consumer to consumer, which was typically done through online classifieds, and that's a painful experience.
你得发布车况信息,还要跟陌生人讨价还价,安排检测和试驾,还得应付那些靠不住的买家。
You've got to list the car, you have to deal and negotiate with strangers, organize inspections and test drives, negotiate with flaky buyers.
作为卖家,你根本无法确定车子能卖多少钱,什么时候能卖出去。
And as a seller, don't really have any certainty on either price or timing of selling that vehicle.
第二个选择是把车卖给经销商做置换。
The second option you had was to trade in the car to a dealer.
这当然更省事、更快捷,但价格通常会低不少,因为经销商知道你愿意为方便而让步。
It's obviously an easier and faster experience, but that typically comes with a meaningfully worse price as the dealer knows that you'll trade off that convenience for a lower price.
所以过去消费者只能在省事和高价之间二选一,从来没法两全。
So the trade off a consumer had historically was really between convenience or price, but never both.
Auto1、Carvana 等一些公司在全球推出了一种新模式,正在改变这种消费体验,叫做消费者对企业(C2B)。
What Auto1, Carvana, a number of other players introduced globally was a third model which is disrupting this consumer experience, is known as consumer to business or C2B.
这些公司不像传统方式那样匹配个人买家,而是直接从消费者手里收购车辆,比如 Auto1 就是这样。
And so instead of trying to match the seller of a car with another individual buyer, these players, Auto1, buys the car directly from the consumer.
这一点很关键,因为作为买家,Auto1 能根据车辆信息快速给出一个接近实时的报价。
That's important because Auto1 as the buyer can give the consumer a near instant price based on the vehicle data.
整个流程很简单:送车、检测,然后消费者几乎立刻就能拿到钱。
There's a simple drop off and inspection process and then the consumer gets paid almost immediately.
从消费者的角度来看,这种方式比我们之前说的那两种选择都更快、更透明,也方便得多。
So from a consumer experience it's faster, it's more transparent and far more convenient than the two alternatives that we talked about.
而且,这种模式在全球范围内已经证明了它的效果,它正在彻底改变本地经销商和汽车分类广告平台,因为它提供了好得多的用户体验,也因此在全球范围内迅速抢占了市场份额。
And then I think in doing so, and we've seen this model play out globally, they are ultimately disrupting both the local dealerships as well as the auto classifieds by offering a vastly better consumer experience, and we've seen the business models gain market share globally as a result.
回到欧洲市场的具体情况,你知道,这个模式在美国通过Carvana已经成功了,但我们的研究和实践表明,它在欧洲可能更有优势,因为欧洲的市场结构更加分散,效率也低得多。
Back to the European market dynamics specifically, as you'd know, the model has worked in The US through Carvana, but our perspective and our work has shown that it's arguably even more compelling in Europe because the underlying market is so much more fragmented and far less efficient.
欧洲的二手车市场规模确实很大,但它不像美国那样是一个统一的市场,可以跨州自由流通。
The absolute scale of the European used car market is large but it's not the same as The US in that it's a single unified market moving from one state to another.
在欧洲,做二手车生意意味着要应对不同的语言、税收制度、注册流程、运输路线,还有高度本地化的经销商需求。
In Europe, scaling a used car business means dealing with different languages, tax regimes, registration, transport routes, as well as very localized dealer demand.
所以,这不仅是个运营上更复杂的难题,市场也更碎片化,而Auto1正是在解决这个问题。
And so it's a much more operationally complex problem and much more fragmented market, and Auto1 is ultimately solving this problem.
他们已经搭建起了一套基础设施,可以在一个国家收购车辆,再在另一个国家销售出去。
They've built the infrastructure to source vehicles in one market and then sell them in another.
数据显示,Auto1收购的车辆中,超过60%都是跨国销售的。
And the stat is that more than 60% of Auto1's vehicles that they source are then sold cross border.
你说的‘市场’,其实指的是不同的国家。
It's different country when you say market.
不同的国家。
Different country.
没错。
That's right.
所以实际上,他们可能从北欧地区收购柴油车,那里的二手车残值不高,因为大家更想买电动车。
So in effect, they might be buying a diesel vehicle from The Nordics where the resale value is relatively limited because they're looking to buy EVs.
然后他们可以把这些车运到西班牙、德国、波兰、意大利这些欧洲国家,卖给当地的经销商。
They could then be transporting and selling that to a dealer in Spain, Germany, Poland, Italy, any of these markets across Europe.
这个市场的规模也相当庞大。
The scale of the market is also huge.
每年欧洲的二手车交易量大约在三八到四千万笔左右。
So each year in Europe, there's roughly 38, 40,000,000 used car transactions.
相比之下,新车交易量只有大约一千万笔。
And this actually compares, if you look at new car transactions, to only about 10,000,000.
这些车的价格差异很明显,但整个市场的规模确实非常大。
Obviously, price differential is pretty material between these vehicles, but the absolute scale of the market is huge.
从交易总额来看,每年大约有6000亿欧元。
On a value basis, this is worth about €600,000,000,000 a year in transaction volume.
欧洲的汽车平均车龄比美国老得多。
The average car in Europe is a lot more aged than it is in The US.
差不多有13年了。
It's about 13 years old.
从消费者角度看,在大多数国家,绝大多数人一辈子买的都是二手车,而不是新车。
And from a consumer perspective, in most countries, the vast majority of consumers will actually only ever buy a used vehicle rather than a new one.
这在欧洲是相当核心的消费习惯。
So this is a key fundamental consumer experience for a lot of Europe.
另外值得注意的是,经销商非常分散,远没有美国那样集中或机构化。
Also worth highlighting is the dealer base is very fragmented with nothing close to the level of consolidation or institutionalization that you've seen in The US.
数据显示,欧洲前20大二手车经销商的市场份额加起来还不到10%,而美国则接近20%。
So the stat is the top 20 used car dealers have less than 10% market share in Europe, which compares to about 20% in The US.
如今,Auto1每年的交易量接近一百万笔。
And Auto1 today is doing just under a million in terms of transactions per year.
去年也是这个数字吗?
Is that what it was last year?
没错。
That's right.
去年大约是八十五万,今年或明年应该就能突破一百万辆。
About 850,000 and this year or next, they should cross the million car mark.
明白了。
Got it.
市场占有率大概在百分之二到三,我这数字可能有点不准。
So two to 3% market share, my math might be off on the top
不,你的计算是对的。
No, of my that's right.
算得很准。
That's good math.
目前市场份额大约是3%。
It's about 3% market share today.
所以从市场渗透率来看,还处于非常早期的阶段。
So still very early days in terms of market penetration.
跨境交易涉及这么多不同国家的注册和监管问题,光是想想就让人头疼。
The logistical dynamics of that cross border transactions dealing with all the different regulatory dynamics in terms of registrations pains me to even think about.
我想聊聊创始人的故事。
So I wanna get into the founder story here.
肯定有谁是冲着解决一个问题去的,而且不只是本地市场,是整个区域的问题。
There must be somebody associated with this who was out to solve a problem, not just in their local market, in the broader region.
能说说创始人的故事吗?公司最初在哪个国家起步的?又是怎么快速扩展到国外的?
Tell me a little bit about the founder story, where the business began country wise, and how quickly they scaled outside of that.
我对这个品牌的背景特别感兴趣。
I'd be curious to understand the history around this one.
Auto1是2012年在柏林由克里斯蒂安·布德曼和哈坎·科赫共同创立的。
Auto1 was founded in Berlin in 2012 by Christian Boerdemann and Hakan Koch.
我觉得你说得对,他们的背景确实很关键,因为他们并不是来自传统的汽车行业。
And I think you're exactly right that their background is important because they didn't come from the traditional car industry.
他们是从柏林的消费互联网生态里走出来的。
They came out of the Berlin consumer Internet ecosystem.
现任CEO克里斯蒂安曾在City Deal担任产品工作,这家公司后来被Groupon收购;哈坎则在Home24和Rocket Internet都担任过运营职务。
So Christian, who's still the CEO today, had product experience at City Deal, which was a business later acquired by Groupon, and Harkin had operating roles at both Home twenty four and Rocket Internet.
我觉得这段经历深刻影响了他们的做事方式。
So I think this background informed their approach.
他们不是像传统二手车商那样解决问题,而是以互联网运营者的视角,来看待这个庞大又高度分散的线下市场,想办法把它系统化,最终实现规模化。
They were trying to solve the problem not as used car dealers had historically, but as Internet operators looking at this very large, very fragmented offline market and figuring out how to solve this problem and and ultimately systematize it at scale.
所以他们一步步构建业务的顺序非常重要。
And so the sequencing of how they built the business over time is important.
2012年刚起步时,他们先打造了面向消费者的B端车源获取系统,通过一个品牌来实现——抱歉对德语听众重复一遍,这个品牌叫‘Wir kaufen dein Auto’,意思是‘我们买你的车’。
So when they started in 2012, they built the consumer to business sourcing engine, and this is through a brand, and apologies to the German listeners, called, which means we buy your car.
在欧洲每个市场,他们都在当地语言中使用同一个品牌名称,作为车源获取的核心品牌和渠道。
When you look across each of the markets in Europe, they own the same name in each local language across each of these markets, which is their sourcing brand and their sourcing engine.
所以2012年的时候,他们解决了第一个环节的问题:如何大规模直接从消费者手里收购车辆。
And so this was back in 2012, how they solved the first leg of the problem, which was how to acquire vehicle supply directly from consumers at scale.
一年后,也就是2013年,他们推出了Auto1.com。这个名称可能会让人混淆,因为Auto1既是他们面向商家的业务板块,也是集团的官方名称,所以我后面会交替使用这两个说法。
A year later in 2013, they launched auto1.com, and this can get confusing as we go through it, but auto1 is also the name that they give to the merchant side of the business as well as obviously the group's operating name, and so I'll use the two interchangeably.
2013年,他们推出了Auto1经销商交易平台,这为他们带来了另一端的流动性。
But in 2013, they launched Auto1, the dealer marketplace, and what this did was give them liquidity on the other side.
通过这个平台,他们能把‘我们收车’这个独特渠道积累的车源,和欧洲各地经销商的需求匹配起来。
It allowed them to match this unique supply that they were building through we buy your cars with dealer demand across Europe.
同时,这也帮助他们积累了定价和交易数据,这些正是他们商业模式的核心。
It also enabled them to build the pricing and transaction data that really sits at the core of their model.
有了这些基础,他们迅速扩展到欧洲其他地区,十二年后,业务已经覆盖了三十个国家。
This then enabled them to rapidly expand across the rest of the continent and sort of twelve years later, we're at 30 countries.
实际上,直到他们创业八年后,也就是2020年,他们才推出了Auto Hero——这是面向终端消费者的零售业务。
It was actually only much later, eight years after they started the business in 2020, that they launched Auto Hero, which is the consumer retail side of the business.
这部分业务更接近Carvana的模式。
This is the part of the business which is more analogous to Carvana.
这种先后顺序很重要。
That sequencing is important.
他们先建立了货源。
They first build the supply.
接着才打通了批发端的流动性,直到很久之后才推出面向消费者的零售业务。
They then build the wholesale liquidity and only much later launched the consumer retail portion of the business.
这让他们在投入更重资产、更耗运营的Auto Hero业务之前,先搭建好了核心的运营、交易和网络基础设施。
And so it enabled them to build the foundational operating, trading, and network infrastructure before they then invested in the more capital and operationally intensive part of the business, which was Auto Hero.
还有一些值得留意的公司里程碑。
A few other company milestones worth noting.
公司在2021年2月上市,当时的股价大约是38欧元。
The company went public in February 21 at about a €38 share price.
上市首日股价就冲到了50欧元以上。
It traded above €50 on the first day.
我们录制这段内容时,股价已经跌到20欧元左右,这说明自2021年那段狂热时期以来,整个行业的情绪已经大不相同了。
As we're recording this, the stock is closer to €20, and so I think it says a lot about how much enthusiasm has come out of the sector since that sort of bubbleicious period of 2021.
另一个关键的竞争节点发生在2024年,他们的唯一竞争对手Cazoo在筹集了超过20亿欧元后倒闭了。
The other key competitive milestone for the business was in 2024, really their only competitor called Cazoo collapsed after they'd raised more than €2,000,000,000.
我也觉得,2024年Auto1首次实现EBITDA盈利,这绝非偶然。
I also don't think it's a coincidence that in 2024, Auto1 reached its first year of EBITDA profitability.
在此之前,他们已经连续亏损了十二年,才终于迎来了第一个盈利期。
And so it's worth calling out that it was twelve years of loss making operations before they generated that first period of profitability.
这证明了这种商业模式在大规模运营下是可行的,但也凸显了达到这一步有多艰难、成本有多高。
It proved the economics can work at scale, but it also just showed how difficult and how expensive it is to get to that point.
Cazoo也做批发业务吗?
And did Cazoo also do the wholesale model?
他们也是把批发和零售分开做的吗?
Did they do a split of wholesale and consumer?
这一点和美国的玩家相比,挺有意思的。
That's an interesting difference relative to The US players.
确实如此。
It is.
说得太准了,这一点非常值得强调。
That's exactly spot on and worth calling out.
Cazoo的做法是想立刻复制Carvana的模式,直接从源头采购车辆,翻新后再卖给消费者。
What Cazoo did was try to immediately replicate or call it the Carvana model of sourcing refurbishment and sales back to consumers.
但和Auto1不同的是,他们没建立起这种经销商业务。虽然这个业务利润率低一些,以后我们再细说,但它能帮助公司积累运营数据和定价系统,正是这些让Auto1后来能够逐步扩大消费者业务。
And unlike Auto1, they hadn't built that merchant business, which although it is lower margin, and we'll come back to the detail over time, it really enables them to build the operating data and pricing engine, which has then enabled Auto1 to scale the consumer business over time.
所以如果没有这样的先后顺序,到了2022年、2023年资本市场变得紧缩时,Cazoo就根本撑不下去了。
And so without that sequencing, as capital markets became more difficult and more subdued in 2022, 2023, it just became too hard for Cazoo to continue to operate.
最后我想提一下Christian,他在2025年启动了一项新的长期激励计划。
Just the last thing that I would call out on Christian is that he had a new long term incentive plan that was implemented in 2025.
这个计划里有两个关键指标特别值得关注。
And there's two key metrics there that are worth focusing on as part of it.
一个是他的长期激励报酬,只有当股价涨到75欧元以上才会触发,相当于从现在的20欧元上涨了3.5倍。
One is his remuneration for the LTIP will kick in above a €75 share price, which is about a 3.5 x increase from today's €20 price.
另一个条件是实现7亿欧元的EBITDA。
And then the other condition is achieving €700,000,000 of EBITDA.
这两个条件都要到2030年才满足,到时候克里斯蒂安会赚得盆满钵满,他那750万个期权也会全部兑现。
Both of these conditions are by 2030, in which case Christian will do very well and his sort of 7,500,000 options will vest.
这笔价值接近四亿欧元。
That's worth close to €400,000,000.
这显然是股东们的理想结果,但也反映出克里斯蒂安对业务的雄心,以及实现目标所需的执行力。
This would obviously be a great outcome for shareholders, but I think shows the ambition that Christian has for the business and also the execution that they need to do to get there.
你刚才对交易中涉及的各方做了很清晰的概括。
You gave a pretty good snapshot of the various counterparties or stakeholders that could be within a transaction.
我们能不能具体走一遍一个交易案例?比如资金怎么流动,融资方面是怎么安排的?
Can we actually walk through a transaction example and maybe even how dollars and cents might move, anything around financing?
能不能用一个实际例子,把整个价值主张讲得更生动一点?
Just value proposition, walk through a sample transaction to really bring it to life?
我来详细讲讲这个交易流程,之后我们再回头谈数字,因为中间涉及好几个不同部分,容易混淆。
I'll walk through the transaction, and then let's come back to numbers just given there's a few different segments there which can make it difficult.
要理解Auto1,关键得弄清楚三个核心板块。
So to understand Auto1, there's really three core groups that you need to understand.
首先是卖车的消费者。
Firstly is the consumers who are selling the car.
其次是购买这些车的经销商。
Secondly are the dealers who are buying those cars.
第三是同样也在购买这些车的消费者。
And thirdly are the consumers who are also buying those cars.
先说卖车的消费者,也就是我们之前提到的业务货源渠道,比如Carvana或者We Buy Your Cars这种模式。
So starting with consumers who are selling the cars and the sourcing engine of the business, which we talked about before via Carvana in Auto or We Buy Your Cars.
作为消费者,你可能是通过广告宣传,或者看到Auto1在欧洲各地大约七百五十个线下收车点,才了解到这家公司的。
So as a consumer, you might become aware of Auto1 through marketing, brand advertising, or by seeing one of the company's roughly seven fifty drop off branches across Europe.
你可以在线上输入车辆的关键信息,上传照片,然后很快就能收到Auto1给出的报价。
As a consumer, you can go online, enter the key details of your vehicle, upload photos, and then receive an offer and price from Auto1.
这里很重要的一点是,Auto1以极快的报价速度著称——不到90秒就能出价,而这些价格几乎都是由他们过去十四年积累的AI定价系统自动生成的。
And I think what's important here is the speed Auto1 prides itself on in under ninety seconds being able to generate a price, almost all of which is AI generated from that historical pricing engine which they've developed over the last fourteen years now.
如果卖家接受报价,就可以预约到附近的门店,车辆完成最终检测,当场完成交易。
If the seller accepts that offer, they can book an appointment at a local branch, the car goes through a final inspection, and the transaction is completed on the spot.
由于Auto1是直接买家,所以整个流程能又快又简单,还很有保障。
And because Auto1 is the principal buyer, they can make that process fast, simple and certain.
这对消费者来说体验非常好。
So it's a great experience for consumers.
一旦Auto1买下了这辆车,下一步就是决定该怎么处理它。
Once Auto1 then owns that vehicle, the next step is routing or what they decide to do with it.
这时候,公司的定价和决策系统会判断这辆车最适合哪个渠道。
At that point, the company's pricing and decision engine determines the best channel for the car.
总的来说,就像我们之前说的,主要有两个渠道。
Broadly speaking, as we've talked about, there's two possible channels.
第一个是auto1.com,这是一个批发平台,把车卖给全欧洲的经销商。
The first is auto1.com, which is the wholesale marketplace where cars are sold to dealers across Europe.
第二个是零售渠道Auto Hero,部分车辆经过翻新后直接卖回给消费者。
And the second is the retail channel called Auto Hero where selected vehicles are refurbished and then sold directly back to consumers.
先说经销商渠道,这仍然是业务的核心。
Starting with the dealer channel, which is still the core of the business.
目前大约有90%的车辆还是卖给了经销商。
So about 90 of the vehicles today are still sold to dealers.
这个渠道的周转速度要快得多。
This is a much faster moving channel.
库存周转周期不到一个月,最近大概是28天,这样既能降低库存风险,又能让资金使用更高效。
Inventory turnover is less than a month, so about twenty eight days most recently, which keeps the inventory risk low and the working capital efficient.
对经销商来说,和Auto1合作的优势非常明确。
From a dealer's perspective, the value proposition of working with with Auto1 is pretty straightforward.
首先是车型选择丰富。
First is the selection.
Auto1提供全欧洲最大的库存池。
Auto1 offers the largest pan European inventory pool.
在这样一个分散的市场里,这一点特别重要。
This obviously matters a lot in a fragmented market.
比如你是意大利的经销商,客户想买奔驰,但本地很难找到,通过Auto1就能轻松解决。
If you're an Italian dealer who might have a customer base that wants Mercedes, that might be difficult for you to source locally but will be something that you can do through Auto1.
第二是价格。
Second is price.
由于Auto1在欧洲范围内采购和调配库存,通常能给经销商提供比本地渠道更优惠的价格。
Because Auto1 sources and distributes inventory across Europe, it can often offer dealers much more attractive prices than what they can get in local channels.
它实际上是在套利这些地区性和国家间的价差。
It's really arbitraging these these regional, these country price differences.
第三是便利性。
The third is convenience.
经销商可以在线完成购车。
Dealers can buy the car online effectively.
这就像一次电商体验,他们在线下单后,车辆会通过Auto1的物流网络直接送达。
It's an ecommerce experience, so they can buy the car online and have that car delivered through Auto1's logistics network.
第四点,也越来越重要的是融资服务。
And then the fourth, and this is increasingly important, is financing.
Auto1提供了整车融资方案,这消除了许多独立经销商的一大障碍。
Auto1 has integrated floor plan financing, and this removes a major friction point for a lot of independent dealers.
这项服务已经融入了他们的交易流程,所以和Auto1交易起来顺畅多了。
It's embedded within the transaction flow for them, and so it's a much more seamless experience to transact with Auto1.
在这些经销商交易中,有时候会不会只是单独卖一辆奔驰给意大利的经销商?
With those dealer transactions, is it truly one off sometimes in terms of a single Mercedes being sold into an Italian dealer?
并不是每次都一次性买好几辆车吧?
It's not always multiple cars at the same time?
没错。
That's right.
普通经销商的采购量是这样,当然,这个平均数背后差异非常大。
The average dealer and, obviously, this hides a huge distribution within the average.
如果你去问公司,他们有时会说,一个经销商每个月买一辆车。
If you speak to the company, they'll sometimes say that a dealer will purchase one car a month.
有些经销商每个月采购量超过两百辆。
Some dealerships purchase north of 200 cars a month.
但平均来看,他们每个季度合作的约三万三千家经销商,每家大约买五到六辆车。
But on average, the roughly 33,000 dealers they work with a quarter will buy about five to six cars each.
所以他们想交易多少,完全由自己决定,取决于作为经销商的具体需求。
And so it's really at their discretion how much they wanna transact and depending on the needs that they have as a as a dealer.
在零售渠道方面,Auto Hero 这块业务看起来更像 Carvana,你们美国的听众应该更熟悉这种模式。
On the retail channel, Auto Hero, and so this is the part of the business that looks a lot more like Carvana that some of your US listeners would be more familiar with.
当他们做出分发决策,Auto1 认为某辆车通过零售能获得更高利润时,就会把车送到其中一个大型标准化翻新中心。
So when they make that routing decision and Auto1 believes a car will earn better margin through retail, it sends that vehicle through one of its large industrialized refurbishment centers.
这一点很重要,尤其是当我们讨论竞争格局时,这是商业模式里的关键环节。
This is important, particularly when we come to competitive dynamics, an important step of the model.
过去,这种翻新工作都是由本地经销商各自完成的,一辆车一辆车地处理。
Historically, this refurbishment process was done in a much more fragmented car by car way by local dealers.
他们买下一辆二手车之后,
They would buy a used car.
会做一些简单的修补和翻新,但从来不是系统化、规模化地操作。
They would then do some light touch ups, do some light refurbishment, but it wasn't done in any really industrialized way.
Auto1 的做法是建立了这些大型集中式翻新中心。
What Auto1 has done is they have these large centralized facilities.
他们能以更低的成本大规模采购车辆。
They can drive better and cheaper procurement at scale.
而且他们越来越多地使用自动化检测工具,比如一种叫汽车审计技术(CAT)的科技。
And increasingly, they're using automated inspection tools like a bit of technology, which they call car audit technology or CAT.
这套系统通过声音和图像识别出大部分问题,帮助他们更准确地估算车辆翻新所需的费用。
And this picks up through audio and visual a large portion of the issues, which means that they can more accurately price how much it'll cost to refurb that vehicle.
车辆经过Auto1的翻新中心处理后,会重新整备、拍照、上线销售,并直接卖给消费者,还附带配送、金融方案和极具吸引力的退换政策,这是许多本地经销商无法提供的。
Once the vehicle goes through one of Auto1's refurbishment centers, it's reconditioned, it's photographed, it's listed online and sold directly back to the consumer, also bundled with delivery, financing and an attractive return policy that a lot of local dealers can't match.
因此,Auto Hero这一端的消费者价值主张也围绕四个方面展开。
And so the consumer value prop on the Auto Hero side is also built around four things.
首先是车型选择,简单来说,他们提供的车源比大多数本地经销商丰富得多。
So selection, pretty simply, they offer a border inventory than most local dealers can offer.
在价格方面,明码标价,透明公开,再也不用跟本地经销商讨价还价。
On price, clear and transparent pricing, there's no haggling again with your local dealer.
第三是便利性。
Third is convenience.
所以这又是一个电商式的体验。
So again, it's an e commerce style experience.
你可以在线浏览,安排送货,而且因为品牌在背后背书,买起来很放心。
You can browse online, you can arrange delivery, and you can buy with confidence because the brand is sitting behind it.
第四是金融支持。
And fourth is financing.
在消费者端,就像他们对商家做的那样,他们在销售时直接提供整合的金融服务。
So on the consumer side, as they do on the merchant, they provide integrated financing at the point of sale.
在欧洲和美国之间,有一个非常重要的区别:这并不是次级贷款的故事。
One very important distinction to understand in Europe versus The US that this isn't a subprime financing story.
在欧洲,汽车贷款总体上更偏向优质和准优质客户,这主要是因为监管更严格,利率限制更严,使得次级市场吸引力很低。
In Europe, auto lending is generally much more skewed towards prime and near prime, and that's largely because they have much stricter regulation and usury laws, which make the subprime segment much less attractive.
实际上,这个市场根本不存在。
And in reality, it really doesn't exist.
所以总结一下,这是一个非常优雅的模式。
So stepping back and summarizing that, it's an elegant model.
Auto1直接从消费者手中收购车辆。
Auto1 acquires these cars directly from consumers.
它利用数据和物流体系,将车辆调配到收益最高的渠道,再通过批发交易或利润更高的零售销售实现盈利。
It uses its data and logistics to route them into the highest channel and then monetizes through either that wholesale transaction or the higher margin retail sale.
关于零售销售,我记得你提到批发这边的库存周转周期大约是三十天。
And on the retail sale, I think for wholesale, you mentioned it's about a thirty day turnover in terms of inventory in and out.
那零售这边的情况是怎样的?
What does that look like on the retail side of things?
两者之间差距大吗?
How much of a difference is there?
在零售端,这个周期大约是120天,等下我们讲到业务的盈利模式时还会提到。
So on the retail side, and this will flow through to when we talk about the economics of the business, it's about a hundred and twenty days.
目前这个数字被人为拉高了,因为Auto1的零售业务增长非常快,他们正在提前囤积库存以应对增长,但零售端的周转周期大约是四个月,而批发端只有一个月。
Now that number is artificially inflated at the moment because the retail business for Auto1 is growing very quickly, and so they're investing in that inventory ahead of the growth curve, but it's about four months versus one month for the merchant side.
在融资方面,这些业务都是记在公司账上的吗?
On the financing side of things, is that all kept on the books?
他们是不是用自己的资本来承担这些贷款,把它们记在资产负债表上?
Do they use their own capital presumably to be tied up and holding these loans in the balance sheet?
再详细说说这个机制,我知道这些贷款的质量比美国的要高,主要是因为信用等级的差异。
Just a little bit more about the mechanics of how that works, understanding that the quality of the loans is higher than what you would see in The US based on just prime subprime differences.
我先说说消费者融资这部分,然后再回头讲,因为融资对理解整个交易流程至关重要,它贯穿了每一个环节。
I'll go first on the consumer financing portion and then step back because financing is key to understanding really that whole transaction flow because it plays a role in in every step.
在消费者融资方面,过去Auto1本质上只是为其他信贷机构提供客户线索。
On the consumer financing side, historically, Auto1 had effectively been a lead engine for other credit providers.
它提供了一种嵌入式的融资体验,但收入来源只是靠转介绍赚取佣金。
So it would provide an embedded finance experience, but it was just making a margin on the lead.
最近,公司的重点转向了全面垂直整合,直接掌控消费者端融资的全部收益。
A more recent focus for the business has been fully vertically integrating into taking effectively the full economics of that integrated financing on the consumer side.
他们越来越多地自行发放贷款,然后自己进行证券化。
It's increasingly originating the loans and then securitizing them themselves.
就在去年,他们完成了第二笔消费者资产支持证券的定价。
They recently, as of last year, priced their second consumer ABS loan.
这笔资产支持证券规模约为2.5亿欧元,市场需求非常旺盛。
This was about a €250,000,000 ABS, and there was a huge amount of demand for it.
认购倍数达到了将近3.5倍。
It was sort of three and a half times oversubscribed.
对于关注信用的听众来说,定价只比欧元银行同业拆借利率高出87个基点。
And then for the credit listeners on the call, it was priced at only 87 points over Eurobor.
这实际上是一笔非常有吸引力的信贷产品,而且定价相当紧凑。
So it's actually a very attractive piece of credit and a fairly tightly priced piece of credit.
我猜他们通过打包这些贷款出售,能确认一笔收益。
I assume they can book a gain on that sale by bundling those loans together.
把风险打包在一起,确实能带来一些净收益。
There's some type of net benefit associated with packaging the risk together.
确实如此。
There is.
我觉得更多是在成本端体现。
I think it's more on the cost side.
这对他们来说是一种成本更低的融资渠道,也能让他们在长期内保留更多的经济收益。
It's a cheaper source of funding for them and enables them to retain more of the economics over time.
我们来聊聊具体的经济差异。
Let's get into some of the economic differences.
我觉得我们之前稍微提到过一点,主要是关于利润率结构,比如商户、汽车金融这些方面。
I think we've alluded to it a little bit just in terms of the margin profile, merchant, auto hero.
不管你怎么拆解,请详细讲讲这些区别,如果能给出具体的数据就更好了。
However you wanna break that down, walk through the differences, and if you can put some numbers around it, that'd be really helpful.
我知道我们之前一直在绕开这些话题。
I know we've been dancing around these topics lot.
Auto1把业务分成两个板块,一直细分到毛利这一行。
So Auto1 reports the business in two segments down to the gross profit line.
一个是自营或Auto1零售业务,另一个是Auto Hero。
This is merchant or Auto1 or retail and Auto Hero.
这个划分很重要,因为两边的经济模型,我想大家应该也看出来了,差别非常大。
And that split is important because the economics, as you've probably already gathered, are very different.
从宏观上看,商户业务是平台里周转快、资本效率高的核心清货引擎。
At a high level, merchant is the fast turn, capital efficient clearing engine, I'll call it, of the marketplace.
Auto Hero 则是周转慢但利润率更高的零售业务。
Auto Hero is slower turning but higher margin retail business.
我们先说商户业务,因为从交易量来看,它依然是整个业务的核心。
Starting off with with merchant because it really still is the core of the business by volume.
2025年,商户业务在平台上的车辆销量占比约90%,总量接近75万辆。
In 2025, merchant accounted for about 90% of unit sales through the network, which was just under 750,000 vehicles.
作为参考,这些车辆的平均售价约为8600欧元。
To give you a sense of price, these vehicles sold for an average of about €8,600.
每辆车,Auto1能赚取大约700欧元的毛利润,也就是公司常说的每单位毛利,毛利率在11.5%到12%之间。
On each of these vehicles, Auto1 generated about €700 of gross profit per unit or GPU in the company's parlance, which is a gross margin of roughly 11.5%, 12% on each vehicle.
乍一看,这个利润率和单笔利润似乎不算高,但理解这个模式的关键,在于系统能实现的交易速度。
That may not sound like a particularly high margin or large GPU at first glance, But the key to understanding the model is the velocity that they can transact at through the system.
正如我们之前提到的,商户库存的平均周转周期大约是30天。
So as we said previously, merchant inventory turns quickly roughly thirty days on average.
所以他们每辆车赚的利润不多,但靠着大量车辆交易,每年用同样的资本循环大约12次,整体利润还是相当可观的。
So they don't earn a large profit on any one car, but they earn a modest profit on a very large number of cars with that capital recycling roughly 12 times a year through the system.
如果我们假设——这也是我们的估算——每辆车的EBITDA利润率大约是5%,并且每年库存周转12次的话,
And so if we assume, and this is our estimate, that they make roughly a 5% EBITDA margin on each vehicle and they turn that inventory about 12 times a year.
那么在扣除运营费用之前,资本回报率大约能达到60%,这可是个非常吸引人的生意模式。
The implied return on capital is about 60% before overheads, which is an attractive business to be in.
另外从商业模式来看,他们在商户业务中正越来越多地捆绑融资服务,也就是库存融资,这未来会进一步提升每辆车的利润和EBITDA,超过当前的水平。
Also worth noting out from an economics perspective on the merchant side is that they're increasingly attaching that financing to the merchant transactions, the floor plan financing, and this should live both GPU and EBITDA profitability over time above the current economics today.
至于零售业务,也就是Auto Hero板块,2025年只占总销量的10%,虽然增长更快,但全年销量大约是10万辆。
On the retail or the auto hero segment, so in 2025, that was only about 10% of unit sales growing much faster, but this was about a 100,000 vehicles.
这些车的平均售价是17,400欧元,差不多是商户端价格的两倍。
The average price for these vehicles was €17,400, which is roughly double that of the merchant side.
而每辆车的毛利润大约是2,100欧元。
And then the gross profit per unit was about €2,100.
也就是说,单位毛利是商户端的三倍。
So three x the merchant GPU.
零售端的毛利率也略高一些,大约在15%左右。
Gross margin slightly higher as well on the retail side, roughly 15%.
所以这两者之间的差异其实很好理解。
And so the difference between the two is is fairly intuitive.
在Auto Hero模式下,公司拿的是更多零售端的利润,而不是只赚批发价差,把车卖给经销商。
In Auto Hero, the company's capturing more of that retail margin rather than just the wholesale margin selling through to those dealers.
但要想拿到这部分价差,运营上的投入显然要大得多。
But in order to capture more of that spread, it's obviously a lot more operationally intense.
包括车辆翻新、拍照、质检、交付、客户服务,还有面向消费者的金融方案。
There's the refurbishment, photography, quality control, delivery, customer support, and consumer financing.
所以,想吃下这部分利润,可不是白拿的。
So there's no free lunch in in capturing that margin.
我觉得从现在开始,对消费者端来说,一个重要的新增驱动因素就是金融服务,我们之前也提到过。
I think a major incremental driver from here, on the consumer side as we touched on was the financing.
随着消费者金融渗透率提升,这不仅能推高单车毛利,更会显著提升整体盈利能力。
As the consumer financing penetration rises, that should support both a higher GPU, but particularly profitability.
管理层设定了零售业务每辆车3000欧元的毛利目标,比当前水平高出约30%。
Management has guided to a GPU target on retail of €3,000 per vehicle, which is about a 30% uplift from today's level.
所以简单来说,商家模式毛利低但周转快,而Auto Hero模式毛利高但运营更复杂。
So I would just wrap that up and say the simplest way to think about it is really that the merchant is the lower margin but higher velocity business, and Auto Hero is the higher margin but more operationally intensive one.
是的。
Yeah.
这确实很有意思,光看毛利可能会觉得一个比另一个好,但别忘了,周转慢意味着需要更多资金投入。
It is very interesting just in terms of you could look at the margins and say, oh, this looks better than the other, but it's capital intensive when you think about slower velocity.
我觉得这点很重要,你讲得非常到位。
I think that's important, and I think you're hammering it home well.
说到两个业务板块之间的协同效应,为什么不能只选一种模式?这些协同主要体现在哪里?
When you think about the synergies between the two divisions, why you wouldn't just go one route versus the other route, where do those show up the most?
我随便想想,说说我的看法。
I'm just gonna think out loud a little bit.
最明显的应该是定价机制。
It's gonna be the price discovery.
你可以拿到更多的货源。
It's gonna be you can source more.
理论上,你的采购能力和议价能力会随时间增强。
So in theory, you're buying power, buying leverage gets better over time.
但当你思考这两个业务板块如何协同时,它们相互补充最明显的地方在哪里?
But when you think about how these two segments work together, what stands out the most in terms of them complementing one another?
我的看法是,这其实关系到Auto1的竞争优势。
The way that I would answer this is that it really goes to the competitive advantage of Auto1.
就像很多优秀公司一样,护城河并不是由单一因素构成的。
And so like a lot of great companies, the moat is not just driven by one thing.
而是多种因素共同作用的结果。
It's a combination of a number.
我特别想提到的是网络效应、规模经济、他们所掌握的专有数据集,以及越来越重要的机构融资渠道。
The things that I would call out, the network effects, the scale economies, the proprietary dataset that they sit on, and then increasingly the access to institutional funding.
这两点都源于同一个核心问题:在需求端同时拥有经销商和消费者,能带来什么优势。
Both of these are driven by really that question around the benefit of having both dealers and consumers on the demand side of that network.
具体来说,Auto1本质上是一个双边市场。
Drilling into the network effects more specifically, Auto1 is fundamentally a two sided marketplace.
随着越来越多的经销商加入平台,流动性就会提升,而更好的流动性意味着更精准的定价和更快的车辆成交速度。
As more dealers join the platform, the liquidity improves, and better liquidity means better price discovering, faster clearing for each of these vehicles.
这反过来让Auto1能对消费者端的车源出更具竞争力的报价,而更优质的车源又进一步丰富了Auto1平台经销商和通过Auto Hero购车的消费者们的库存选择。
That in turn allows Auto1 to bid more competitively for that consumer supply, and then that better supply improves the inventory breadth for both dealers on the Auto1 side and then consumers buying through Auto Hero.
所以这个正向循环其实很清晰:买家越多,定价越好;定价越好,吸引更多卖家;卖家多了,平台整体买家的库存选择也就更丰富。
So the flywheel is fairly straightforward in that respect in that more buyers improves pricing, better pricing attracts more sellers, and more improves the inventory for overall buyers on the platform.
回到我们之前讨论的话题,这一点在欧洲这种高度分散的二手车市场尤其关键,因为各地的供需常常严重不匹配。
Back to the discussion that we had earlier, we'd say that's especially important in a really fragmented market like Europe where local supply and demand for used vehicles are often very mismatched.
所以Auto1不只是在单个国家层面汇集车源。
And so Auto1 isn't just aggregating inventory at a country level.
它实际上构建了一个覆盖全欧洲的二手车交易平台。
It's providing a pan European clearing mechanism or clearing house of sorts of used vehicles.
第二个护城河是规模经济。
The second moat is scale economies.
Auto1在欧洲建立了实实在在的实体基础设施。
Auto1 has built real physical infrastructure across Europe.
到2025年底,它已经拥有超过725个交车点、153个取车点、150多个物流中心,还连接了300多家物流合作伙伴。
By the end of 2025, it had more than 725 drop off locations, a 153 pickup locations, 150 plus logistics centers, and they also had a network of 300 plus logistics partners.
在零售端,他们建了12个大型Auto Hero整备中心,目前这套体系满负荷运转时每年可处理约25万辆车。
Specifically on the retail side, they've built 12 large Auto Hero refurbishment centers, and this footprint today is for about 250,000 cars annually at full utilization.
我们稍后再回过头来聊人工智能的话题。
We'll come back to the discussion around AI.
这一点很重要,因为它不只是一个线上交易平台。
It's important because it's not just a digital marketplace.
Auto1自己搭建了从货源获取、运输、检测、整备到交付的完整网络。
Auto1 has really built the sourcing, transportation, inspection, refurbishment, and delivery network itself.
有了这套规模化运营的体系,他们能加快流程、降低单辆车的成本,大幅减少整个系统的摩擦。
And having done this at scale, they can improve the speed, they can lower unit costs, and just really reduce overall friction across the system.
随着规模效应扩大,网络越做越大,小竞争者就越难在价格或服务上跟上。
As we scale economies, the larger that network gets, the harder it is for smaller competitors to match the price or service level.
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在资本市场的规模优势方面,还有一件值得留意的事。
There's also an interesting thing worth calling out on the capital markets dimension to the scale advantage.
随着公司规模扩大,他们在融资上的成本更低、也更容易获得资金。
As they get larger, this improves the price and ease with which they can access financing.
归根结底,还是因为他们能以更低的成本和更便捷的方式提供服务。
Again, it just comes down to their ability to provide this at a lower cost and more convenient basis.
第三个需要理解的要素是数据。
The third element to understand is data.
Auto1的定价引擎基于自成立以来近六百万笔二手车交易数据。
Auto1's pricing engine is built on almost 6,000,000 used car transactions since inception.
这是一个独家的数据集。
This is a proprietary dataset.
它不只是来自分类广告上的挂牌信息。
It's built not just on listings data that you might see from a classified.
而是整合了欧洲三十个国家、多种渠道和车型的实际成交价格数据。
It's actually built on the transaction and ultimate sale price data across the 30 European countries, different channels and vehicle types.
所以这些数据的实际价值非常实在。
And so the practical value of that data is really concrete.
它帮助Auto1在定价时,不只是看品牌、型号、车龄和里程,还能结合不同市场、跨境区域的实际成交价和需求,以及季节性趋势,从而更准确地评估残值风险。
It helps Auto1 price a specific car based not just on make, model, age, mileage, but on the actual realized price and demand in the different markets, the different cross border sections that they operate in, seasonal trends, and helps them better understand the residual value risk.
最终,Auto1处理的交易越多,这些决策就会随着时间推移变得越精准,优势也越明显。
Ultimately, the more transactions that Auto1 processes, the better those decisions should become over time and the more advantage it has.
这听起来都很合理。
That all makes sense.
我觉得从最大化需求来源的角度来看,这个框架很清晰。
And I think the framing just in terms of maximizing sources of demand.
在成本方面,我认为最重要的是每辆车的毛利。
On the cost side of things, I think what's most important is the gross profit margin per vehicle.
大部分因素最终都会归到这一项里。
Most things are going to get bucketed into that.
不过说到间接成本,因为这个模式有规模效应,长期来看会体现出来,那哪些成本会被归入管理费用或其它间接支出呢?
But just on the overhead costs, because there is operating leverage in this model and you see that over time, what would be bucketed into the G and A or anything that would be in the overhead side of things?
那这个业务里到底有多少运营杠杆呢?
And how much operating leverage really exists in the business?
我只是好奇,这些影响会怎么一路传导到利润表的各个费用项目上。
I'm just curious as you see it come all the way down the income statement and through the the various lines of expenses.
这是个好问题,也是现在业内最热门的讨论话题之一,就是这个业务的利润率和运营杠杆未来会怎么发展。
It's a good question, and it's probably the most topical debate about the business today on what that margin potential and operating leverage of the business looks like over time.
在很长一段时间里,Auto1 一直都是亏损的。
For most of its history, Auto1 was loss making.
直到2024年,他们才第一次实现EBITDA盈利。
It was only in 2024 that they turned their first year of EBITDA profitability.
在那之前,EBITDA利润率基本都在负3%到负1%之间徘徊。
For most of that period up until that point, EBITDA margin sat at about negative three to negative 1%.
那段时间,公司大力投入建设业务网络、打造品牌,后来又搭建了零售和翻新体系,这些都算在运营成本里。
And this was as the company invested heavily in building out the network infrastructure of the business, the brand, and then later the retail and refurbishment infrastructure, which all sits in the the overheads of the business.
2024年,他们的EBITDA利润率达到了1.5%,到了2025年,已经接近2.5%。
In 2024, they did about one and a half percent EBITDA margins, and by 2025, this was closer to 2.5%.
所以这家公司显然已经跨过了盈利和增量运营杠杆的门槛。
So the business has clearly crossed that threshold of profitability and incremental operating leverage.
我认为现在投资者真正关心的问题,曾经一度是讨论的焦点,不是公司能不能盈利,而是最终的利润率会达到什么水平。
I think the real debate for investors now, which for a period of time was a discussion, was not whether the company can be profitable, but really what that ultimate margin profile looks like.
公司在2021年上市时,管理层曾提出长期目标是实现5%到9%的EBITDA利润率。
When the company IPO ed in 2021, management spoke to a long term margin target of five to 9% EBITDA margin.
我们认为,公司要达到这个目标,主要有四个关键驱动因素。
We see that there's really four main levers for the company to getting there.
第一个是营销效率。
The first is marketing efficiency.
Auto1目前在市场中的份额还不到3%,远未达到我们和公司都认为未来可以实现的渗透水平。
Auto one being less than 3% of the market today is still very underpenetrated of of where we think they can get to and where the company thinks they can get to over time.
因此,他们在营销上投入很大,尤其是在零售端,旨在提升品牌认知度并推动网络扩张。
So they're spending heavily on marketing, particularly on the retail side to build brand awareness and drive growth of the network.
公司表示,去年第四季度的营销支出达到了峰值。
The company indicated that that marketing spend peaked in the fourth quarter of last year.
所以我们觉得,从现在开始,还有很大的空间可以进一步提升效率。
So we think there should be increased scope for improving efficiency from here.
而且Carvana有一些很有意思的过往数据,显示随着品牌知名度提升,消费者体验越来越好,他们的营销成本曲线和效率也持续改善。
And there's some really interesting read through and historical data from Carvana where they looked at how those marketing cost curves and marketing efficiency improved over time as the brand becomes more well known and consumers have this great experience with the company.
We Buy Your Car 这个名字起得真不错,消费者一听就明白他们是做什么的。
We Buy Your Car is a pretty good branding name in terms of understanding what they do for consumers.
我特别喜欢这种直白有力的品牌表达方式。
It's always my favorite when you have a very direct branding mechanism like that.
在这方面,他们的营销效率确实值得称赞。
So I tip my cap to them, at least on that marketing efficiency.
没错。
It is.
另外在营销方面,值得一提的是,这家公司实际上运营着三个不同的品牌。
The other interesting thing on the marketing side worth calling out is the company effectively operates three different brands.
We Buy Your Car、面向商家的Auto1,还有面向零售端的Auto Hero。
We buy your car, Auto1 on the merchant side, and then Auto Hero on the retail side.
我们觉得很可能,公司也提到过,随着时间推移,他们会把这三个品牌整合成一个,而且大概率会是Auto Hero。
We think it's likely and the company has indicated that over time they'll consolidate those into a single brand and that that's likely to be auto hero.
消费者其实已经很清楚,这背后是同一家公司,无论你是卖车还是买车,都能通过不同的入口找到网络的另一端,而统一品牌之后,效率还会进一步提升。
There is a fair degree of consumer awareness that it's ultimately the same company, and there's various touch points for consumers who are either selling or buying their car to find their way to the other side of the network, but that should also drive increased efficiency over time having a single unified brand.
第二个效率提升的领域是车辆翻新和运营效率。
The second area of incremental efficiencies is refurbishment and operating efficiency.
自2021年以来,他们大力投入建设了工业化翻新中心,目前这个网络里还存在相当大的闲置产能。
So they've invested heavily since 2021 to build out these industrialized refurbishment centers, and there's currently fairly significant unused capacity in that network.
根据我们的数据,他们的利用率大概只有45%到50%。
On our numbers, they're only driving at about 45, 50% utilization.
随着业务量在这些中心逐步增长,我们预计会看到明显的规模效应——利用率提高、采购成本下降,还有人工效率的提升。
So as volumes scale through these centers, we should see meaningful operating leverage through high utilization, better procurement at scale, and then labor productivity.
从现在开始看利润率,第三个关键点是金融服务。
The third thing for understanding margins from here is also financing.
这在消费者体验上和主营业务很不一样,但对Auto1来说,利润率却非常高。
That's something which is very differentiated from a consumer experience for the business, but it's also very high margin for Auto1.
随着融资渗透率提升,长期来看将推动更高的毛利率和更强的EBITDA利润率。
And as financing attach increases, it should support high GPU and stronger EBITDA margins over time.
第四点是关于管理费用,Auto1采用高度集中的模式,几乎所有技术和管理团队都集中在柏林。
And then the fourth just on overhead costs is Auto1 runs a very centralized model with almost all of the tech capability and management sitting in Berlin.
因此,随着整体业务和网络持续扩张,这些集中成本将产生显著的规模效应。
And so as the overall business and the network continues to scale, they should see operating leverage on those centralized costs.
这听起来都挺合理。
That all makes sense.
我觉得目前两边的毛利润都已经转正了。
And I think at this point, you have gross profit margin net positive on both sides.
你们已经达到了覆盖管理费用的节点,接下来的运营杠杆效应值得重点关注。
You've hit the mark where you're covering your overhead costs, so the operating leverage from here is an interesting one to monitor.
还有资产负债表方面的因素,比如资本密集度和库存周转率。
And then you have the balance sheet dynamics of capital intensity, inventory turnover.
他们对库存周转率有目标吗?
Do they have a target for inventory turnover?
我知道你提到他们在消费者端做了大量前期投入,但能不能具体讲讲相关的资产负债表动态?因为这对整个故事至关重要。
I know you mentioned they're doing a lot of upfront investing on the consumer side of things, but just walk through some of the balance sheet dynamics and what's relevant in in that case because I think it's very important to this story.
公司没有明确设定一个具体的周转天数目标,但随着网络流动性提升,他们在商家端和零售端都在持续缩短这个周期。
The company hasn't guided to a specific turnover days that they're targeting, but that's a number which they're bringing down over time on both the merchant and the retail side as the liquidity of the network improves.
正如你指出的,资产负债表和资本结构对理解这个业务非常关键。
The overall balance sheet and capital consideration is, as you've called out, really important to understanding the business.
因为Auto1会把车买进自己的账上,并在车辆流转过程中为其提供资金支持。
Because Auto1 buys those cars onto its balance sheet, it funds that inventory as it moves through the system.
无论是通过Auto Hero渠道进行翻新,还是像我们之前说的,在最终销售时提供融资,都是如此。
If it goes through the Auto Hero channel as they refurbishment, and then obviously as we've touched on when they finance that ultimate end sale as well.
所以最贴切的理解方式,也是公司自己的说法,就是这本质上是一个庞大的营运资本周转问题。
And so the best way to think about it and the way that the company would articulate it is that it's effectively a large working capital dynamic for the inventory.
因此,随着Auto1规模扩大,它需要更多资本来支持平台上车辆的采购和流转。
And so as Auto1 grows, it needs more capital to fund the vehicles, to fund the inventory moving through the platform.
但因为这些车辆属于短期资产,周转速度较快,公司会用以车辆本身为抵押的无追索权债务来融资。
But because these vehicles are short duration assets and they turn relatively quickly, the company funds that with nonrecourse debt secured against the car.
所以本质上,这是通过库存融资来支持的,这种方式让他们以更少的资本推动业务增长。
And so really, it's inventory financing which funds that, and so it's a capital efficient way for them to grow the business.
这会影响你如何理解和分析公司的现金流量表。
This does impact how you should think about and look at the cash flow statement of the company.
由于Auto1增长迅速,报告的经营性现金流看起来疲软甚至为负,只是因为随着业务扩张,更多现金被占用在库存里。
Because Auto1 is growing quickly, the reported operating cash flow can look weak or negative simply because more of that cash is getting tied up in inventory as they grow.
这并不意味着公司的盈利能力差。
That doesn't mean that the economics are poor.
这只是说明公司正处于快速扩张阶段。
It just means that the company is growing rapidly.
他们需要为营运资金提供融资,等到业务成熟后,这种营运资金的压力会逐渐缓解,经营性现金流也会随之改善。
They need to finance that working capital, and then we should see as the business matures that that working capital drag will normalize out and the operating cash flow will come through.
这很有道理。
That makes a lot of sense.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得运营杠杆和现金转化、库存周转这两点特别相关,尤其是现在消费者端有这么大的推动力。
I think those two things in terms of operating leverage and that cash conversion inventory turnover feel very relevant, particularly with that big push on the consumer side of things.
我们在讨论Auto1如何通过技术长期构建护城河和竞争优势方面,已经谈得挺全面了。
I think we covered a lot on the the moat and competitive advantage that Auto1 has been able to build with the technology over time.
关于公司未来的增长潜力,你能不能聊聊整个市场的情况?Auto1是怎么在这个市场里成长的?未来几年会影响增长前景的那些关键因素又有哪些?
When you think about what growth can actually look like from here, Just talk a little bit about the market, how Auto1 grows relative to that market, the different dynamics that will impact the growth outlook in the coming years.
对我们来说,这是这个业务最有趣的地方之一。
This is one of the most interesting things about the business for us.
一个业务已经做到如此主导的地位,却还只占这么大的一个市场的3%,这种情况非常罕见。
It's very rare to have what we see as an incredibly dominant business still at only 3% market share of a very large market.
管理层提到过,他们有希望把市场份额提升到10%,而且他们对此很坦诚,我们认为这个目标未来还有很大的上调空间。
Management has spoken about a path towards 10% market share, and they're pretty open about it and we think it's very fair that there could be meaningful upside to that target over time.
所以关键不在于最终的数字到底是10%还是12%,而在于Auto1在这样一个庞大且分散的市场里,才刚刚起步,却已经占据了主导地位。
And so I think the important point is not whether that terminal number is exactly 10% or 12%, It's that Auto1 is still very early innings in what's a very large fragmented market with a dominant position.
从市场渗透率的角度来看,这类商业模式未来有可能达到的高度,其实是有先例可循的。
There are some interesting precedents for where these business models can get to over time from a penetration perspective.
我们在南非的‘We Buy Cars’业务,面向的消费者和企业模式与之非常相似,目前市场份额已经接近两位数高段,未来几年目标是达到25%。
We Buy Cars in South Africa, which is a broadly similar consumer to business model, already has market share in the high teens and is targeting 25% over the next few years.
日本的USS业务更偏向批发拍卖市场,市场份额已接近40%。
USS in Japan, which operates more of a wholesale auction market, has close to 40% market share.
这些模式虽然不完全一样,但对我们判断Auto1未来在市场整合和渗透率上能走到什么程度,提供了很有价值的参考。
And so none of these models are exactly identical, but we think they're useful reference points for the potential consolidation and penetration that Auto1 can get to over time.
公司未来的增长路径其实相当清晰。
The growth levers for the company are relatively straightforward.
首先,也是最重要的一点,是扩大车源供应。
I think first and most importantly is expanding the supply.
公司一直在大力拓展欧洲各地的门店网络。
The company has been investing heavily in expanding that branch network across Europe.
到2025年底,他们的取车网点已经达到了750个。
So by the end of twenty twenty five, they had about seven fifty drop off branches.
这个数字每年都在以大约40%的速度增长。
That number was growing about 40% year on year.
这说明管理层仍在大力押注车辆采购的机会。
So that gives you a sense of how aggressively management is still leaning into the sourcing opportunity.
第二是拓展经销商网络。
Second is growing the dealer side of the network.
公司不仅在增加平台上采购的经销商数量,还在逐步提升这些经销商的采购份额。
The company is increasing both the number of dealers that are buying on the platform, but also the wallet share of those dealers over time.
过去十二个月,经销商的增长实际上加快了,经销商数量仍保持每年23%到25%的增长。
Dealer growth has actually accelerated over the last twelve months with the number of dealers still growing about 23%, 25% year on year.
目前,他们在欧洲近二十万家经销商中的渗透率才刚到15%左右。
They're only about 15% penetrated of the 200,000 odd dealers across Europe.
这说明经销商这边还有很大的增长空间。
So it gives you a sense of the runway still left on the dealer side.
第三是Auto Hero和零售业务。
Third, on Auto Hero and retail.
正如我之前提到的,目前只有大约10%的车辆通过零售渠道销售。
So as I called out, only about 10% of the vehicles today are routed through the retail channel.
这一块的增长速度远超商家,因为他们正在大力投入扩张。
That side is growing much faster than the merchant as they invest in scaling it.
我们预计这一比例会随着时间推移继续上升。
And we would expect that mix to rise over time.
第四点,也是对盈利和绝对增长最关键的,是深化金融业务的渗透和变现能力。
Fourth and probably most importantly for profitability as well as absolute growth is deepening the finance attachment and monetization.
随着商家和消费者两端的融资渗透率提升,Auto1每辆车的收入也会增加,从而推动单车利润和利润转化率的提高。
As that financing penetration rises on both the merchant and the consumer side, Auto1 obviously earns more per vehicle and this supports higher GPU and better profit conversion.
所以关键在于,他们其实拥有多个增长引擎。
So I think the key point is that they really have multiple levers to grow.
货源还在增加。
There's more supply.
经销商数量也在增加。
There's more dealers.
他们不仅能提升单个经销商的消费占比,还能逐步提高Auto Hero业务的占比。
They can increase that dealer wallet share and they can drive a higher auto hero mix over time.
最终,即使只占3%的市场份额,前方仍有很大的增长空间。
And ultimately at 3% market share, there's a long runway ahead.
关于市场竞争情况,听说他们最大的竞争对手已经退出市场,这点挺有意思的。
On the competitive set or just competition in the market, it's interesting to hear that their previous biggest competitor exited the market.
不过从经销商的角度来看,有个有趣的现象:他们既是客户,未来也可能成为某种意义上的竞争对手。
But one of the dynamics just in terms of dealers, it's interesting because they're customers and now they will also be competitors in some way.
这会不会改变现有的格局?
Does that change the dynamic at all?
这会构成风险吗?
Like, is that a risk?
我很难想象单个经销商能对Auto1构成多大威胁,但我还是想了解一下:第一,整体竞争态势如何;第二,这种情况会不会影响他们的业务模式。
I have a hard time seeing the leverage that an individual dealer would have over Auto1, but I'm just curious about, one, competition more broadly, and two, if that changes any of the dynamics.
我们和不少欧洲本地经销商聊过,想搞清楚这个动态,我觉得主要有两点值得注意。
We've had a number of conversations with local European dealers to understand this dynamic, and there's probably two key things that I would call out.
第一,Auto Hero目前的年成交量只有十万台左右,还不到整个市场总量的1%,对整体销量影响微乎其微。
First is the Auto Hero business is only up a 100,000 vehicles today, so it's less than 1% of overall market share and not really impacting volumes.
经销商们当然知道这一点,但远没到威胁他们生存的地步。
So it's something that dealers are aware of, but really it's not anywhere near an existential threat to their business.
至于经销商能从接入我们之前提到的全欧洲库存中获得的价值,他们可以直接把这些车送到自己的门店。
And then I would say the value proposition that the dealers get from being able to access as we talked about before this pan European inventory, they can deliver it to the dealership.
但相比之下,这种价值远不如Auto1未来逐步蚕食市场份额所带来的潜在风险。
That value is far outweighed by the potential risk from Auto1 eventually taking that share over time.
再回到竞争格局,我们可以大致分为三类。
Going back to the competitive set, we would really bucket it into three groups.
第一类是本地经销商,这个我们刚才已经讨论过了。
Firstly are the local dealers, which we just talked about.
第二类是汽车分类广告平台。
Second are the auto classifieds.
第三类是像Auto1这样的整合型运营商。
And then third are the integrated operators like Auto1.
它们各自以不同方式与Auto1竞争,但从我们的角度看,都算得上是完整的模式。
Each competes with Auto1 in a slightly different way, but from our perspective, really matches the full model.
再快速回过头说说本地经销商,他们确实有一些优势。
Back on the local dealers quickly, local dealers do have some advantages.
他们有本地的信任基础,有实体门店,而且在以旧换新方面往往扮演着自然的角色,但他们也有结构性的局限。
They have the local trust, they have the physical presence and they often play a natural role in trade ins, but they do have structural limitations.
他们没有那种泛欧洲的流动性池。
They don't have that pan European liquidity pool.
他们也没有全欧洲范围的价格数据。
They don't have the continent wide pricing data.
他们没有双向网络,也没有跨境物流体系。
They don't have the two sided network or cross border logistics stack.
所以他们在某些本地市场确实能竞争,但根本没法大规模复制Auto1的模式。
And so they do compete in some local catchments, but they can't really replicate the Auto1 model at scale.
至于汽车分类广告平台,他们是另一种类型的竞争对手。
On auto classifieds, they're a different kind of competitor.
他们主要是在获客环节上与我们竞争。
They primarily compete for discovery.
所以,它们显然为消费者和经销商提供了一个上架车辆、获取潜在客户,并在个人对个人市场直接完成交易的平台。
So they obviously give consumers and dealers a place to list inventory, generate leads, and then transact directly in the consumer to consumer market.
但这也正是它们的局限所在。
But that's also the limitation.
这些分类广告平台都是轻资产的市场。
These classifieds are asset light marketplaces.
它们不解决检测、定价、运输或翻新这些问题。
They don't solve the inspection, price, transport or refurbishment problem.
而正是在这一点上,Auto1 的模式从根本上不同。
And really that's where Auto1 is fundamentally different.
它们相信,单靠流量曝光远远不够,只有全程垂直整合整个交易流程,才能为网络两端的用户带来更好的体验。
Their bet is that discovery alone isn't enough and that by fully vertically integrating through that transaction process, they can provide a far better experience to both sides of the network.
我还想指出,这里存在一个重要的战略不对称性——对那些推崇汉密尔顿·赫尔默观点的人来说,这是一个反向立场;理论上,分类广告平台也可以尝试转向直接收车业务。
I'd also highlight there's a important strategic asymmetry here, a counter position for the fans of Hamilton Helmer on the call, but a classifieds operator could in theory try to move into more direct car buying.
有些平台确实试过,但这么做意味着要彻底转变商业模式:从高利润、轻资本的线索生成,转向 Auto1 那种运营复杂、重资产、利润率低得多的业务。
Some of them had tried, but doing so requires a complete change in the business model from high margin capital light lead generation to Auto1, which is obviously an operationally difficult balance sheet intensive and much lower margin business.
所以从经济角度来说,这种转型很难说得通。
And so that's a very hard transition to justify economically.
我还想指出,分类广告平台通常是一国一地的。
And I'd also call out that classifieds are typically country by country.
因此,它们也缺乏Auto1那种跨国调配库存的能力。
And so they also lack Auto1's ability to arbitrage that inventory across borders.
最后,看看Cazoo在2024年退出市场后,那些直接整合型的竞争对手。
Lastly, on the direct integrated competitors after Cazoo exited the market in 2024.
目前真正能做到规模的几乎没有。
There really aren't any at scale.
有一个法国上市公司叫Aramis。
There's a French listed business, Aramis.
它并不完全能和Auto1直接对比,因为它嵌在Stellantis的生态里。
It's not a perfect like for like comp because it sits within the Stellantis ecosystem.
这确实让它能优先获得货源,但问题在于,它不是一个独立的交易平台模式。
This does give it some advantages in that it gets preferred supply through that, but it also has the issue that it's not an independent marketplace model.
从规模和业绩来看,他们的业务小得多,最近一个季度的收入甚至还在下滑。
And from a scale and performance perspective, it's a far smaller business and revenue is actually growing backwards in their most recent quarter.
所以,我们独特的看法是,整个欧洲市场上,Auto1实际上没有任何有效的竞争对手。
So uniquely, our perspective is that there's really no effective competition to Auto1 across Europe.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得本地经销商和二手车销售员之所以被贴上标签,是有原因的。
I think local dealers, used car salesman are a stereotype for a reason.
在分类广告平台上,我买二手车,五成概率捡到便宜,五成概率被坑,提车时钱包都可能被偷。
Classifieds, there's a fifty fifty chance of me either getting a great deal or getting beat up and getting my wallet stolen at the pickup spot.
这明显是个消费者需求强烈的领域,体验也更好。我觉得你已经把各方面优势都讲得很清楚了。
It's just a very obvious consumer opportunity and better consumer experience, And I think you outlined why it's better on a lot of different sides of things.
执行起来不容易,但至少从价值主张来看,它解决的痛点非常明确。
Execution is not easy, but at least from the value proposition, it's very clear the pain that this solves.
我得谈谈一些风险了,我同意别夸大其词,但就连我这边,也会尽量保持客观。
I guess getting into some of the risks because I would tend to agree that not to overstate it, but even from my side of things, I'd try to be unbiased about this.
竞争并不像是个大风险。
Competition does not feel like a huge risk.
你觉得对这家公司来说,最大的风险是什么?
What would you say stands out as the biggest risks for the business?
投资者通常会关注四类风险,或者说是四个关键议题。
There's typically four buckets of risks or four key debates that you'll hear amongst investors.
第一个是利润率潜力,这个我们已经讨论过了。
The first is the margin potential, which we've already talked about.
第二个是融资和资产负债表问题,这个我们也提到过。
The second is funding and balance sheet, which we've also touched on.
另外两个是库存风险,以及人工智能可能带来的颠覆性风险。
The two other ones are inventory risk and then potential disruption risk from AI.
我先说库存风险,眼下这个问题特别热门,因为伊朗局势紧张,可能影响传统燃油车的残值,同时电动车和电池车的市场份额正在上升。
And so I'll start with inventory risk, is particularly topical at the moment with the conflict in Iran and the potential impact that that will have on residual values of ICE vehicles, the growing market share of EVs and battery vehicles generally.
说到底,库存风险的核心在于,Auto1是拥有这些车辆的。
And so really what the inventory risk comes down to is Auto1 owns the car.
这意味着,如果二手车价格下跌的速度快过公司消化库存的速度,最终利润就会受到挤压。
And so that means if used car prices fall faster than the company can turn that inventory, ultimately, margins can come under pressure.
这种情况真的发生过吗?有没有过类似周期,让你看到它对业务构成多大的威胁?
Has that happened like, have there been cycles where that has played out and you have, like, some glimpse of how much it really threatens the business?
确实有过一些时期,尤其是疫情期间,价格波动非常剧烈,但关键在于,公司大部分时间里,库存周转都在三十天内完成。
There have been periods, particularly during COVID of significant price volatility, but I think the key thing to think about and frame the risk is for most of the company's life, that inventory turns within thirty days.
所以我们讨论的价格变动幅度,都是发生在三十天这个窗口期内的。
And so the percentage change that we're talking about is within that thirty day period.
历史上,这种变动还没达到足以对公司的定价造成重大影响的程度。
Historically that hasn't been at a level where that has significantly impacted pricing for the company.
我觉得在利润表里,这种风险主要体现在每辆车的毛利下降上。
I think in the P and L we've talked about that risk shows up through a lower gross profit per unit.
如果价格变动足够剧烈——虽然历史上还没出现过——也可能导致库存减值。
And if price moves are sharp enough which we haven't seen historically but there can be potential inventory write down effects as well.
有几个缓解因素,我们之前提到过,就是库存周转很快,尤其是在平台业务这边。
There are a few mitigants, something we touch on, the inventory turns are quick, especially on the merchant side of the business.
公司始终有能力将更多车辆转入批发渠道,以便快速清理库存。
And the company always has the ability to push more cars into that wholesale channel if it needs to clear stock quickly.
我们认为,Auto1 在应对这些波动时,相比同行更有优势。
Our perspective is as well that Auto1 should be better positioned than peers to manage through these periods.
他们掌握的数据更多。
They have more data.
他们拥有更广泛的分销网络来周转库存,还能利用跨境价格差异套利。
They have a larger distribution network to move this inventory, but also the ability to arbitrage these cross border price differences.
如果某个地区或国家的库存卖不动,他们可以把车调到网络内的其他地方,从而降低风险。
And so if the inventory isn't moving in a particular region or country, they can then move that elsewhere within the network to mitigate from that risk.
我们还要指出,从销量来看,二手车的销量和价格在经济下行时通常比新车更稳定。
We'd also call out that from a volume perspective, used car volumes and prices historically have held up much better in an economic downturn.
它们的周期性波动和对经济变化的敏感度,远低于新车销售。
They're not as cyclical or economically sensitive as new car sales.
还有一点值得注意,那就是电动车可能受到的影响。
It's also worth calling out the potential impact on EVs.
这确实是投资者们经常讨论的一个话题。
This is a real source of discussion amongst investors.
我们认为,Auto1的核心优势在于它在欧洲范围内对车辆的定价和交易能力。
Our view would be that Auto1's capability is really in pricing and trading these vehicles across Europe.
不管是燃油车还是电动车,它们依然拥有最全面的数据和网络,能够在这片大陆上高效地买卖车辆。
Whether those are ICE or EV, they will still have the best data and network in order to buy and sell these across the continent.
随着电动车占比上升,系统内可能会出现一些波动,但我们认为这不会长期显著影响其商业模式和盈利能力。
There will potentially be some volatility as the increasing share of EVs goes through the system but we don't see it significantly impacting the value proposition or economics of the business over time.
我想第二个争议点是关于人工智能的。
I think the second point is the debate around AI.
克里斯蒂安在2025年致股东的信中直接谈到了这个问题,我建议你们的听众去读一读,我们也认同他看待这个问题的角度。
This was actually a topic which Christian addressed directly in his 2025 shareholder letter which I'd encourage your listeners to read and we agree with the way that he framed the debate.
他的第一个观点是关于实体运营的。
So his first point is physical operations.
人工智能无法复制Auto1的实体运营体系——包括门店网络、物流体系和翻新中心。
AI can't find code Auto1's physical operating system, the branch network, the logistics, or the refurb centers.
而如今,Auto1已经掌握了这套基础设施,哪怕新进入者有充足资金,也不可能一夜之间复制出来。
And Auto1 now owns that infrastructure in a way that a new entrant can't replicate overnight even if they did have the capital.
Auto1在过去十四年里积累了这套专有数据,交易记录接近六百万笔。
Auto1 has built this proprietary dataset over fourteen years now, almost 6,000,000 transactions.
这很关键,因为二手车定价根本不是个通用的软件问题。
And that matters because the pricing of used cars isn't just a generic software problem.
你必须真正掌握实际的交易历史、本地市场的流动性、运输路线的决策,以及残值判断,才能跟他们竞争。
You really have to have that realized transaction history, the local market liquidity, the routing decisions and the residual value judgment in order to compete with what they're doing.
第三点是流动性。
The third point is liquidity.
这显然是个双边网络。
Obviously it's a two sided network.
Auto1拥有最大规模的买家和卖家群体。
Auto1 has the largest pool of both buyers and sellers.
所以,就算你我明天就能写出一个跟Auto1一模一样的网站,经典的平台效应依然会让他们保持明显优势,别人很难抢走市场份额。
So even if you and I vibe coded a Auto1 website tomorrow, the classic exchange or marketplace dynamics would obviously provide a competitive advantage against that taking share.
第四点是资产负债表和融资渠道。
And then the fourth is just the balance sheet and funding access.
这类业务要想实现盈利,需要巨额资金投入。
These businesses just require a huge amount of funding to reach a point of profitability.
realistically,想和Auto1竞争,竞争对手光是股权资本就得准备几十亿欧元。
And realistically, a competitor would need multiple billion euros of equity capital alone to try and get to a point where they could compete with Auto1.
就像Cazoo的情况所示,即使有这么多钱,也不一定能成功。
And as we saw with Cazoo, even in that case, it doesn't guarantee success.
我觉得刚才说得挺清楚的。
I think that was laid out well there.
结合我们刚才讨论的这些因素,你是怎么看待Auto1的股价的?在估值上你有什么框架吗?
In terms of how you approach the stock itself with all of this throughout the discussion involved, what are your thoughts in terms of a framework for valuation?
整个市场一般是怎么做估值的?
How would you say the market as a whole uses valuation framework?
随便聊聊你的看法吧。
Just any general commentary.
你不用给出具体股价目标之类的。
You don't have to give a stock price target or anything like that.
我只是想知道通常是怎么估值的。
Just I'm curious how it's typically valued.
我们在评估估值和回报时,主要看Auto1在五到十年后能有多强的盈利能力,以及那时候市场会给它什么样的估值倍数。
We approach the valuation and returns question asking what kind of earnings power Auto1 will have in five to ten years and what sort of multiple do we think the business will trade on then.
所以在这个框架里,我们主要关注三个变量:增长、利润率和估值倍数。
So really the three variables that we think about are growth, margin, and multiple in in that framework.
先说增长,我们提到过,目前Auto1在欧洲二手车市场的渗透率还不到3%。
And so starting with growth, we called out that the company's less than 3% penetrated of of the European used car market.
我们预计今年收入能增长30%左右,未来至少五年都能保持20%以上的营收增速,而且如果经销商渠道拓展和Auto Hero业务占比提升,还有可能更快。
We think it can grow revenue about 30% this year and probably sustain top line of well north of 20% for at least the next five years with a credible case that it can grow faster with the sourcing dealer penetration and auto hero mix driving upside from there.
关于利润率,Auto1在2025年底的EBITDA利润率大约是2.5%。
On the margin debate, Auto1 exited 2025 at about two and a half percent EBITDA margins.
如果未来五年公司能实现管理层设定的最低目标,也就是5%到9%的EBITDA利润率,那么利润的增长速度就会远超收入增长。
If the business can reach the low end of management's margin framework over the next five years which was that 5% to 9% EBITDA margin target then obviously earnings are going to compound materially faster than revenue growth.
所以简单算一下,如果他们达到这个利润率区间的下限,利润复合增长率就能超过35%。
And so on simple maths, if they hit the bottom end of that margin guidance, you're talking about earnings compounding at north of 35% over that period.
如果你相信他们能达成区间上限,那未来五年利润复合增长率可能接近50%。
If you believe they can hit the top end of that range, then you're talking about earnings compounding closer to 50% over the next five years.
接下来就回到估值问题了:在这种情况下,一个规模更大、更盈利、更成熟的公司,到底该值多少倍?
The question then goes to valuation and really what multiple should in that scenario, a much larger, profitable and mature business deserve?
我们觉得这个问题可以从三个角度来分析。
We really think there's three ways to frame this debate.
第一个角度是经销商视角。
So the first is the dealer lens.
按照这个观点,Auto1其实就是一家有漂亮网站的大型汽车经销商。
Under this perspective and this argument, Auto1 is really just a big car dealer with a slick website.
这种看法——显然我们并不认同——会让市场继续关注库存风险、资金依赖和商业模式的周期性。
And on that framing, which you can tell we obviously don't agree with, the market will continue to focus on inventory risk, funding dependence and cyclicality of the business model.
在这种情形下,公司的估值倍数自然会比较保守。
And under that scenario, it would deserve a more conservative multiple.
这个领域里有不少类似的公司,比如美国的Penske、Lithia、Group One、AutoNation和CarMax。
There's a pretty broad set of peers within this space, Penske, Lithia, Group one, AutoNation, CarMax in The US.
我知道这些公司的商业模式差异挺大,但一般来说,这类企业估值都在低十几倍的市盈率左右,收入增速却只有个位数中段。
I know there's a lot of underlying dispersion in business models, generally speaking, and these sorts of businesses trades around the low teens earnings multiple, but only growing revenue mid single digit.
第二种视角,也更贴近我们对这家公司的看法,就是把它当成一个营销基础设施或者平台。
The second lens, which is more in line with how we think about the company is as marketing infrastructure or a platform.
在这种视角下,它的价值不只在于周转库存,更在于这个双边网络、定价系统、物流密度、数据优势,还有多年来积累起来的资金能力。
And so under this view, the value isn't just turning inventory but it's in the two sided network, it's the pricing engine, the logistics density, the data advantage and then also the funding capability that they've built up over time.
有了这些平台特性,我们认为Auto1的价值应该远超传统经销商,哪怕它永远达不到纯软件或互联网平台那样的估值水平。
And so with those platform characteristics, we think Auto1 should be worth materially more than a traditional value, a traditional dealer, even if it never deserves a sort of a pure software on internet platform multiple.
其实有一些有意思的对标公司,虽然这么说可能会引发不少争议,但像Copart、日本的USS或者Ritchie Brothers,都可以作为参考来评估它的估值。
There's some interesting comps and there'll probably be a fair bit of debate from calling this out but businesses like Copart, USS in Japan or Ritchie Brothers as potentially useful reference points for framing that valuation.
在这种情况下,如果公司能保持中个位数的增长,我们觉得它的估值倍数可能会达到二十倍左右。
And so a multiple we could see under that scenario probably has a two handle on it for a mid teens level of growth.
我们的观点是,Auto1的价值应该高于一家传统经销商。
Our view is that Auto1 should be worth more than a dealer.
它具备网络效应。
It has the network effects.
它有数据优势,但考虑到我们之前谈过的资本运作特点,它的价值可能还是低于纯粹的互联网平台。
It has that data advantage, but probably worth less than a pure internet platform just given the capital dynamics that we've talked about.
目前,这家公司的企业价值倍数(EBITDA减去资本开支)略高于20倍。
Today the business trades at a little over 20 times EBITDA less CapEx.
未来五年,其盈利增速预计在35%到50%之间。
Earnings growth in that 35 to 50% range over the next five years.
根据你对估值倍数的判断,就可以推算出相应的回报预期。
Depending on your view of multiple, you can then back out sort of the return expectations that you can have.
是的。
Yeah.
在美国,如果真能实现这样的数字,那差距就太大了,对股东来说是好事。
Those numbers in The US, I mean, that would be a big mismatch if it played out and nice for shareholders.
接下来会很值得观察。
And it'll be interesting to see.
这是一个非常特定的时刻,但与互联网和SaaS公司相比,资本密集度的讨论正在发生变化。
It's a very specific moment in time, but the capital intensity relative to the Internet, the SaaS players, we're seeing a shift in that debate.
也许五年后,估值倍数也会反映出这一点。
So maybe in five years' time, the multiples will reflect that as well.
到时候就知道了。
We'll see.
看看会发生什么吧。
We'll see what happens.
这真让人受益匪浅。
This has been fascinating.
非常感谢你提供这个分析框架和详细拆解。
I I really appreciate that framework and the breakdown.
你把这一切都讲得很清楚,尤其是对像我这样的美国听众来说,特别有参考价值。
And you've explained all of this, especially relative to what US listener like myself would be familiar with.
我们最后来总结一下几点启示。
We close these out with just lessons.
从Auto1身上,你觉得最值得借鉴的经验是什么?作为投资者,这些经验还能应用到其他地方吗?
What would you point to just in terms of the lessons that you can take away from Auto1 and maybe apply elsewhere as an investor?
Auto1确实给了我们不少启发,我特别想提两点。
Auto1 had a number of really interesting lessons that we took from it, two that I would call out.
第一,真正成功的平台模式,往往不是那种轻资产的模式。
First is that the winning marketplace model often isn't the asset light version.
这些年,我们在多个行业里都看到过类似的情况。
And so I think we've seen this happen a number of times across multiple industries over the years.
一个有趣的例子是,eBay当初是轻资产的分类广告模式,利润率很高,但最终被亚马逊取代了。
An interesting analog might be that eBay was the asset light classified business with great margins, and that was ultimately superseded by Amazon.
亚马逊显然运营更复杂、利润率更低、资产更重,但规模却大得多。
Again, obviously a much more operationally complex, low margin, asset intensive business, but ultimately a much larger one.
我们在外卖行业也看到了同样的趋势:价值逐渐从只提供列表或分类信息的平台,转向了像DoorDash这样完全自己掌控配送环节的公司。
I think we also saw in food delivery, the value shifted away from platforms that just provided the listings layer or the classified like experience and moved towards the DoorDashes of the world which fully vertically integrated into the delivery experience themselves.
它们自己管理骑手,结果反而把业务做得更好了。
They dealt with drivers and ultimately became much better businesses in the process.
我觉得这其实反过来说明,对于这些轻资产的模式来说,始终面临一个风险:总有竞争对手愿意接手那些复杂、低利润率、资本密集的活儿。
I think it really goes back in a way to invert it to say for these asset light businesses, they're always at a degree of risk from a competitor coming in and willing to do the difficult operational, low marginal capital intensive thing.
这就印证了亚马逊那句话:你的低利润,就是我的机会。
And it goes to the Amazon call out of your margin is my opportunity.
我觉得在Auto1身上,我们正看到这种情况在上演。
And I think we're seeing that play out here with Auto1.
对我们来说,第二个教训是资本周期和融资周期如何影响行业的回报。
The second lesson for us is capital cycles and funding cycles and how they impact industry returns.
过去十年我们尤其看到,长期充裕的资本——尤其是来自风投的——对消费者是好事,但对投资者通常不利。
I think we've seen particularly over the last decade that long periods of abundant capital, particularly from VC investors, are great for consumers but typically bad for investors.
它们能支撑起海量的竞争者,但最终却推迟甚至掩盖了行业的理性整合,也掩盖了最终胜出者的真实盈利能力。
They can fund an incredible amount of competition, but ultimately, they delay or hide industry rationalization and hide the underlying economics of the eventual winner.
2021年之前,互联网和物流密集型的各个领域都经历过这种情况。
That was true across a whole range of internet and logistics heavy categories through 2021.
比如外卖大战、电商,当时都投入了巨额资金。
There was the food delivery wars, e commerce, there was huge amount of investment.
但我们发现,一旦资本周期转向,局面就完全不同了:弱的竞争者退出,而那些在资金宽松时期真正搭建起基础设施、网络密度和规模的企业,反而能变得更强大——这往往就是投资者的机会所在,也是事情变得有意思的时候。
But what we've found is that when that capital cycle turns, the picture changes, the weaker competitors fall away and the businesses that use that easy money period to build the real infrastructure, the network density and the scale can emerge much stronger and that's often the opportunity and when things become interesting for investors.
最后我想说的是,那些在起步阶段看起来运营混乱、资本密集的企业,一旦市场格局稳定下来,规模优势开始显现,反而会变得很有吸引力。
The final takeaway I think is that businesses that look too operationally messy or capital intensive during the build phase can become attractive once that market structure settles and the scale advantages start to show through.
这场讨论真是让人受益匪浅。
It's been fascinating discussion.
我特别感兴趣,想深入了解这个业务,尤其是其中的细节。
Again, I I was very interested in understanding this business, particularly the nuances.
这些总结真是点睛之笔。
Those were some great lessons to cap it off.
非常感谢你分享这些洞见,哈里森。
Thank you very much, Harrison, for sharing the knowledge here.
谢谢你邀请我,马特。
Thanks for having me, Matt.
想收听更多从好市多、维萨到莫德纳的深度解析,或者订阅我们的每周简报,请访问 joincolossus.com。
To find more episodes of breakdowns ranging from Costco to Visa to Moderna or to sign up for our weekly summary, check out joincolossus.com.
就是 joincolossus.com。
That's joincolossus.com.
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