奇华顿：魔法配料——[商业拆解，第 242 集]

本期节目由Portrait赞助播出。

This episode is brought to you by Portrait.

Portrait由前买方投资者打造，他们深知，好的投资不仅仅在于从低质量来源获取更多信息。

Portrait was built by former buy side investors, and they understand great investing isn't just about having more information from low quality sources.

关键在于以正确的方式整理正确的信息。

It's about having the right information organized the right way.

如果你收听这个节目，你会明白尽职调查包含很多方面。

And if you listen to the show, you appreciate diligence consists of many things.

深入探究企业的历史，梳理竞争动态的细微差别，跟踪围绕你投资论点的关键指标。而过去，这会占用你大量宝贵的时间。

Diving into the history of a business, framing the nuance competitive dynamics, tracking key signposts around your thesis, And historically, that would take up material time that you do not have.

但Portrait基本上就像给你的团队增加了一支分析师大军。

But Portrait is basically like adding an army of analysts to your team.

它由专为投资研究工作流程设计的人工智能系统驱动。

It's powered by an AI system specifically designed for investment research workflows.

因此，你能获得细致入微的创意生成。

So you get nuanced idea generation.

Portrait 会评估我们在节目中讨论的那些定性特征，这有助于你找到符合自己框架的企业。

Portrait assesses the same types of qualitative attributes that we discuss on this show, and that can help identify businesses which fit your frameworks.

Portrait 还能定制研究报告的生成。

Portrait also customizes research report generation.

第三，它有智能的论点监控功能，每天评估价值链上的数千个数据点，提取关键信息，推动业务发展。

And third, there's intelligent thesis monitoring, and that's where Portrait assesses thousands of data points across value chains each day, extracting the insights, driving the business.

再说一遍，这些工作通常要花上好几个小时。

Again, all this work would typically take hours and hours and hours.

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It's at your fingertips now.

今天就访问 portraitresearch.com 开始免费试用吧。

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这里是《商业解析》。

This is Business Breakdowns.

《商业解析》是一档与投资者和经营者对话的系列节目，深入探讨一家企业。

Business Breakdowns is a series of conversations with investors and operators diving deep into a single business.

对于每家企业，我们都会深入探讨它的历史、商业模式、竞争优势，以及它成功的关键。

For each business, we explore its history, its business model, its competitive advantages, and what makes it tick.

我们相信每家企业都有值得投资者和经营者学习的经验和秘密，我们在这里为你一一呈现。

We believe every business has lessons and secrets that investors and operators can learn from, and we are here to bring them to you.

想收听更多《Business Breakdowns》的节目，请访问joincolossus.com。

To find more episodes of breakdowns, check out joincolossus.com.

主持人和嘉宾在节目中表达的所有观点仅代表他们个人意见。

All opinions expressed by hosts and podcast guests are solely their own opinions.

主持人、嘉宾及其雇主或关联方可能持有本播客讨论的证券头寸。

Hosts, podcast guests, their employers, or affiliates may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

本播客仅供信息参考，不应作为投资决策的依据。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.

我是Matt Russell，今天我们要聊的是香精香料巨头——奇华顿。

This is Matt Russell, and today we are covering the fragrance and flavor giant, Givaudan.

我的嘉宾是Jeremie Fastnacht，他是卢森堡国际银行投资基金的投资经理。

My guest is Jeremie Fastnacht, fund manager at Banque de Luxembourg Investments.

我们会一起探讨这个隐藏在气味和风味背后的庞大帝国，看看奇华顿的工作如何渗透到我们日常生活的方方面面，它如何成为一种极具影响力的营销手段，以及这项工作背后一些有趣的动态，行业结构如何随着时间演变，而奇华顿又是如何在长达一百多年的历史中拿下25%的市场份额。

And we walk through this unseen empire in scent and flavor and how the work that Givaudan does touches so much of our everyday life, how it acts as influential marketing, and some of the interesting dynamics that go into this work, how the industry structure has evolved over time, and how Givaudan has been able to capture 25% market share over a hundred plus year history.

所以这期节目会很有意思。

So this is a fun one.

再说一次，这是一家规模很大的公司，但所在的行业却不太引人注目。

Again, it's a large business that sits in an off the radar industry.

请享受这期关于奇华顿的深度解析。

Please enjoy this breakdown on excited.

我们终于可以一起深入聊聊奇华顿了。

We finally get to break down Givaudan together.

先提前为我的发音道歉，但这家公司确实是你以一种非常有趣的方式推荐为潜在分析对象的。

Excuse my pronunciation in advance, but this is a business you present it in a very interesting way as a potential breakdown candidate.

我越研究它，就越感兴趣。

The more I researched it, the more interested I got.

所以也许你可以先做个简单的介绍，你会怎么向我们的听众描绘奇华顿这家公司呢？

So maybe you can start with the simple introduction, how you would paint the picture of Givaudan to our listener base.

谢谢邀请我，马特。

Thanks for having me, Matt.

首先，我想说这是一家非常特别又相当神秘迷人的公司。

First, I'd like to say that's a special and quite secret fascinating business.

他们总部设在日内瓦附近的韦尔涅市。

They are based in a city called Vernier by the League Geneva.

他们目前的市值是250亿瑞士法郎。

They have a currently market cap of 25,000,000,000 Swiss francs.

对你或者很多人来说，典型的一天是这样的：你醒来，去洗手间，地板很干净，闻起来有薰衣草的味道。

A typical day for you or for lots of people, You wake up, you go to the bathroom, the floor is clean, smells lavender.

你洗个澡，拿起你多年来每天用的最喜欢的洗发水和沐浴露，然后用你最喜欢的清爽牙膏刷牙。

You take a shower, you grab your favorite shampoo and gel that you use every day for years, and you brush your teeth with your favorite refreshing toothpaste.

你涂上天然除臭剂，而你的伴侣可能正在喷那款超级迷人的香水，抹神奇护肤霜。

You put your organic deodorant while your partner maybe is putting this terribly attractive perfume, magic skin cream.

你穿上衬衫准备去上班，闻到洗衣液清新的香味。

You put your shirt to go to work and smell the fresh scent of your laundry detergent.

然后你拿起这瓶健康饮料。

Then you grab this healthy beverage.

你吃一个植物基酸奶，每天早上上班路上都会带一个。

You eat a plant based yogurt that you take every morning on your way to work.

现在你工作很忙。

Now you work a lot.

所以你饿坏了。

So you're starving.

你在那家时尚的素食餐厅和普通快餐之间犹豫不决，前者有美味的口味，后者是你常去的。

You hesitate between this trendy veggie restaurant with delicious flavors or you with your regular fast food.

最后，你被那个美味的汉堡和不可抗拒的酱汁以及你最喜欢的汽水征服了。

Finally, you fall for this yummy burger with irresistible sauce and your favorite soda.

现在一天差不多结束了。

And now the day is almost finished.

你去超市，在结账时，你抵挡不住那块巧克力棒的诱惑。

You visit the supermarket and at the checkout, you can't resist the taste of this chocolate bar.

所有这些产品，以及全球成千上万的其他产品，很可能都有奇华顿的参与。

All these products, tens of thousands of other products around the world, there is a high probability that Givaudan is involved.

它们无处不在。

They are everywhere.

它们创造那些神奇的成分、香水和风味，影响着人类的感官。

They create the magic ingredients, the fragrances, the flavors that's influencing the sense of humans.

这些是人们喜爱某些产品并多年来持续回购的主要原因。

These are the main reason why people love certain products and keep repurchasing them for years.

我总是对气味和味道的力量感到惊叹。

I am always amazed at the power of scent and taste.

围绕五感的事物往往都是值得关注的领域。

Anything around the five senses tends to be a good focus area.

研究表明，这比广告、实用性、包装和价格都更重要。

The studies show that this comes before advertising, usefulness or packaging, and price.

风味和香气确实是人们痴迷于某些产品的主要原因。

It's really the main reason, the flavor and fragrance, why people are crazy about some products.

奇华顿生产这些香精和香料。

Givaudan produce this fragrances and flavors.

重要的是，这仅占客户成本的一小部分。

And what's important is that it's a tiny fraction of the client's cost.

他们的员工是艺术家。

Their employees are artists.

他们是科学家。

They are scientists.

他们是自然、化学、人类情感方面的专家。

They are experts in nature, chemistry, human emotions.

人体有数百个专门用于嗅觉和味觉的受体，这些受体与我们的记忆、大脑和情感相连。

Humans add hundreds of receptors in the body dedicated to smell and taste, and these are linked to our memory, to the brain and to our emotions.

所以奇华顿的产品在建立和加强人们喜爱的品牌与消费者之间的情感纽带方面起着关键作用。

So Givaudan's products, they have the critical role of creating, reinforcing the emotional bond between the brands that people love and the consumers.

他们才是那些畅销数十年的世界知名品牌产品背后的真正创新者，这些产品由众所周知的大型跨国公司销售。

They are really the real innovators behind the tons of decade long success, world famous branded products that are sold by the largest usual suspects multinationals that everybody knows.

在家庭和个人护理产品领域，比如有宝洁、联合利华，还有雅诗兰黛、欧莱雅、高露洁、利洁时这些公司。

In HPC, you have, for example, P and G or Unilever, maybe Estee Lauder, L'Oreal, Colgate, Requit.

在香精、食品和饮料领域，有百事可乐、可口可乐、雀巢、星巴克，还有亿滋、玛氏、好时，以及很多知名的快餐连锁店。

In flavors, in food and beverage, you have PepsiCo, like Coke, Nestle, Starbucks, maybe Mondelez, Mars, Hershey, and lots of famous fast food chains.

所以，就像我说的，在这个行业里，这些公司其实不太想让我们知道，大的创新其实来自奇华顿。

So a sequin industry, as I said, these companies don't really want us to know that the big innovation is coming from Givaudan.

奇华顿还和全球各地很多本地及区域性的龙头企业、颠覆性的初创公司、小众独立品牌合作，这些公司平均增长速度其实更快。

Givaudan does even more business with tons of local and regional leaders and disruptive startups, small indie brands around the world who are growing actually much faster on average.

最终，每天有数亿甚至数十亿人在享受奇华顿的创作，但他们并不知道这一点。

In the end, hundreds of millions, if not billions of people are enjoying Givaudan's creations every single day, but they don't know that.

他们不知道这些产品来自奇华顿。

They don't know this coming from Givaudan.

这太不可思议了。

That's crazy.

这个业务能带来很强的可见性和增长，强劲且稳定的现金流，以及不错的资本回报，这得益于他们的业务结构，以及他们在终端市场所提供的价值。

The business provides a strong visibility and growth, strong cash flows and stable cash flow and nice return on capital, thanks to the structure, the value they provide in the end markets.

这个行业有点像日常消费品，但更好。

The industry is like a staples like but better.

看起来大多数投资者不太知道这个名字，但他们仍然是一个非常不错的生意，防御性强，收入持续增长，现金流也很吸引人。

Seems like most investors don't really know the name, but they are still a very nice business, defensive recurring growth, attractive cash flows.

这个行业更加多元化，你能从很多趋势中受益。

The industry is more diversified and you benefit from lots of trend.

从结构上看，它似乎就是更好。

It just seems better by construction.

我很好奇想了解一下。

I'd be curious to know.

这个市场和行业太迷人了，我觉得很有道理。

It's such a fascinating market and industry, and it makes sense to me.

我甚至想到，我去木板路的时候，漏斗蛋糕的香味本身就是一种吸引力，比任何包装或视觉美学的营销都强。

I just even think about by me going out to a boardwalk and the odor of the funnel cake is its own attraction and stronger than any marketing that you could ever come up with in terms of packaging or visual aesthetics.

你能讲讲奇华顿的历史，他们对这个行业的涉足，以及他们是如何随着时间的推移开创或颠覆这个行业的吗？

Can you get into both the history of Givaudan, their exposure to this particular industry, and how much they pioneered it or disrupted it over time?

我很好奇他们的故事是怎么融入这其中的。

I'd be curious to know how their story fits into that.

奇华顿是很久以前成立的，1895年在苏黎世，由两兄弟创立，其中一位叫莱昂·泽维尔·奇华顿。

So Givaudan was founded a long time ago, 1895 in Zurich by two brothers, Leon Xavier Givaudan.

一开始，它是一家香水工厂。

And at the beginning, it was a perfume factory.

这里有个小故事。

There is a small story.

几年后，当地的面包店抱怨说，工厂的烟雾让面包闻起来像紫罗兰。

A few years later, the local bakery complained because the factory, the fumes make the bread smell like violet.

所以他们率先搬迁，搬到了韦尔涅。

So they were first to move, and they went to Vernier.

他们确实是合成香水大规模生产的先驱，因为当时只有一些小作坊和手工艺人。

And they were really the pioneer to create synthetic perfume in large quantity because at the time it was only small boutiques, craftsmen.

他们真正进入了合成领域。

They really got into synthetic.

有意思的是，现在情况完全反过来了。

So it's funny because now it's exactly the opposite.

大家都在转向天然原料。

Everybody is going into naturals.

但在当时，这算是革命性的。

But at the time, it was revolutionary.

一开始，他们做的是香水。

At the beginning, it was a perfume.

后来他们通过收购另一家瑞士公司来扩展业务。

Then they moved with an acquisition, another Swiss company.

1948年，他们收购了Persolco，进入了食用香精领域。

In 1948, they bought Persolco to get into flavor.

到了六十年代，著名的制药公司罗氏想多元化发展，于是收购了奇华顿，还收购了另一家法国公司Rue，这家公司在奢侈香水和天然原料方面很有传奇色彩。

And then in the sixties, the famous company, Roche, the pharma company, they wanted to diversify, so they acquired Givaudan, but also another company, Rue, a French company that is legendary in luxury perfumes and naturals.

这家公司位于格拉斯，那是普罗旺斯香水业的发源地。

It was based in Grasse, the cradle of perfumery in Provence.

罗氏在1990年代合并了这两家公司，然后在2000年，奇华顿被分拆并在瑞士交易所上市。

Roche merged the two companies in the 1990s, and then in 2000, Givaudan was spun off listed on the Swiss exchange.

他们通过收购雀巢食品配料公司，在2000年代初真正成为主导者，后来又收购了奎斯特国际。

They really became the dominant player by acquiring Nestle Food Ingredients in the early two thousand, and then later Quest International.

所以他们是香精香料领域的大玩家，而奎斯特国际原本是联合利华的一部分。

So big player in flavor and fragrances, which was part of Unilever.

所以这些业务是把这种复杂的业务外包出去。

So this business were outsourcing this complex business.

现在有点好笑，情况又反过来了，因为像联合利华或宝洁这样的公司，现在正试图通过投资香精香料能力来重新进入这个领域。

And now it's a bit funny, also the opposite, because some of companies are now like Unilever or P and G, they are trying to get back by investing in fragrance capabilities.

凭借这些以及其他一些收购，他们如今是这个行业的领导者。

With all that and other bolt on acquisitions, they are today the leader of this industry.

现在他们的收入在香精和香料之间平分。

Now they are equally split revenue between flavor and fragrances.

我觉得这很有道理。

It makes sense to me.

显然，香味对味觉是有影响的。

Obviously fragrance has an impact on taste.

任何时候你闻不到味道再去尝东西，这两者是有重叠的。

Anytime you restrict your ability to smell and you taste something, there's overlap.

但说到这些团队怎么运作，你提到他们是通过收购进入香精领域的。

But in terms of how these teams operate, you mentioned they moved into flavor with an acquisition.

那这些团队和部门是不是分开运作的？

Do those teams and divisions operate very separately?

他们是分开运作的，但另一方面，也有很多共通之处。

They operate separately, but on the other hand, you have lots of things that are common.

想在这个行业里成功，你就得做大。

If you wanna succeed in the industry, you have to get big.

你需要规模，需要全球和本地运营，需要大量的研发和知识产权，需要商业机密，需要雄厚的资金，还需要和客户建立很多关系和信任。

You need scale, you need global and local operations, you need tons of R and D and IP, you need trade secrets, deep pockets, you need lots of relationship and trust from the clients.

你还得应对复杂的监管环境，每个国家和地区的法规都不一样。

You have to navigate a complex regulatory environment, different in each countries and region.

你得管理成千上万种原材料和复杂的全球供应链。

You have to manage vast portfolio of thousands of raw materials and sophisticated global supply chains.

这两个业务在这方面是一样的。

This is the same for both business.

客户会提出所谓的简报，说明他们想创造的产品，描述品牌、形象、定位、视觉、颜色，甚至希望产品带来的感觉，还会给出一个价格。

The client issue what they call a brief to explain the product they want to create, describe the brand, the identity, the positioning, the image, the colors, maybe feelings they want to associate with the products, and they give a given price.

所以这两个业务在这方面也是一样的。

So this is the same for both business.

比如说，你好，奇华顿。

For example, Hello, Givaudan.

这是欧莱雅。

This is L'Oreal.

我们想为女性打造一款新的奢华香水。

We want to create a new luxury creed perfume for women.

我们需要一种香味，要顺滑而复杂，带有菠萝、茉莉和佛手柑的味道。

We need a fragrance, something smooth and complex with pineapple, jasmine, and bergamot.

而且我们需要每公斤150美元的价格。

And we need it for 150 USD per kilo.

或者，你好，我是一家初创公司Madvita的创始人。

Or hello, I'm the founder of a startup, Madvita.

我想打造最好的高端有机茶。

I want to create the best premium organic tea.

我需要一种美味的木槿花口味，尝起来清新、自然、健康。

I need a delicious hibiscus flavor, which tastes fresh, natural, healthy.

我希望每公斤5美元。

I want it for 5 USD per kilo.

所以这两种情况其实差不多。

So it's a bit the same in both cases.

特别之处在于，你手里的是核心清单。

What is special is that what you have is the core list.

大多数大型企业，以及一些肉类、食品饮料和家庭个人护理公司，都采用核心清单系统。

Most of the large and some meat, food and beverage and household personal care companies work with the core list systems.

这是他们多年来精选的少数供应商名单，通常包括像奇华顿这样的最大香精香料公司，而且他们保证会被纳入所有的简报中。

It's the list of their very few selected suppliers for several years, where you usually find the biggest FNF players like Givaudan, and they are guaranteed to be included in all the briefs.

竞争。

Competition.

所以名单上可能只有三到四家公司。

So you have three or four companies maybe in the list.

这是一个非常精选的圈子。

It's a very selective club.

光是参与就要支付数千美元。

You have to pay thousands of dollars just to play.

当然，进入这个行业的门槛非常高。

Buyers to entry in the industry, of course, are very high.

现在，回到那两个创作例子，你有调香师，也就是法语中的“鼻子”。

Now, if you go back to the two creation examples, you have the perfumer, the ne, so it means a nose in French.

香精香料公司的所有调香师都是艺术家，同时也是科学家，因为这非常复杂。

All the flavorists from the FNF company were the artists, but also scientists because it's very complex.

这些公司有成千上万的员工，但大公司里只有两千名这样的明星调香师和调味师。

The companies, they have thousands of employees, but the big companies have only 2,000 of these star flavorists and perfumers.

他们报酬丰厚。

They are generously paid.

还有评估师来协助他们。

And you have evolators that help them.

有化学家，有食品技术专家，他们会做出完整的产品，让客户能真正想象出成品的样子。

You have chemists, you have food technologists that create a complete product so the clients can really imagine what it would be.

这非常复杂，因为即使是一个简单的味道，比如苹果味，也必须符合产品的要求，以及简报中关于风味的细节——是哪种苹果？

And it's very complex because even for a simple flavor, for example, apple, it must fit with the products, the specificities of the brief in terms of flavor, which variety of apple is it?

是新鲜成熟苹果的味道吗？

Is it flavor of a fresh ripe apple?

它是什么形态？

What form is it?

你需要什么？

What do you need?

液体粉末。

Liquid powder.

你得小心化学稳定性。

You have to be careful with chemical stability.

它必须符合品牌和法规，还有无数种独特的变化。

It must fit with the brand, with the regulation, tons of unique variation.

有时候它得掩盖其他成分，而且你得小心，因为即使配方只改1%，也可能改变很多东西，不只是气味，还有质地或稳定性。

Sometimes it must mask other ingredients, and you have to be careful because even if you change 1% of a formula, it can change a lot of stuff, not only scent, but the texture or the stability.

听起来化学在生意的两边都极其重要。

Certainly sounds like the chemistry is incredibly important on both sides of the business.

你们有深度的整合。

You have deep integration.

你们和香精香料公司以及客户之间是共生关系。

You have symbiotic relationship with the FNF companies and the clients.

这常常是一种伙伴关系。

It's often a partnership.

这是一个合作的过程。

It's a cooperation process.

所以你有产品经理、客户的营销人员，双方之间会有大量的反复沟通。

So you have the product manager, the marketing guys of the client, and you have tons of iterations between both.

有时候对于简单的小客户，可能只需要几周或几个月，但对于高端香水，可能需要两到三年。

Sometimes for a simple, small clients, it can last a few weeks or a few months, but for high end perfume, it can last two to three years.

大玩家之间的信任关系往往建立在几十年的合作之上。

The big players have trusted relationships often built over decades.

这真的很保密。

It's really secret.

所以他们不会透露很多创新来自这家公司，他们提供创作，就像我们看到的，但他们也在创作前期提供建议和支持。

So as they don't tell that a lot of innovation come from this company, They provide the creation as we've seen, but they also advise supports in pre creation.

他们可以为客户做内部测试。

They can do internal testing for the clients.

他们可以做市场和趋势分析。

They can do market and trend analysis.

他们手里有大量的数据。

They have ton of data.

他们可以进行消费者小组测试。

They can do consumer panel testing.

他们还可以加上法规或营销方面的内容。

They can add on regulatory or marketing stuff.

然后，公司会为特定的客户，也就是你，调配出一种独特的化合物，并给它一个独特的编号。

The company then will create a unique compound with a unique reference number for you, for a unique client.

这个配方不会再用在其他客户身上。

It won't be used again with other clients.

这些产品的知识产权归FNF公司所有。

The IP on these products stay within the FNF company.

你看，这跟大宗商品化差得远了。

You see that is very far from commoditized.

我们听业内专家说过，有时候即使拿到了配方，FNF公司也复制不出某款啤酒的味道或香气。

We heard from industry experts that sometimes an FNF company cannot replicate the flavor or fragrance of a beer despite having the formula.

所以这真的很复杂。

So it's really complex.

这就是为什么你会看到这些香精香料公司，他们把销售额的7%到8%投入到研发上，我是说投资。

That's why you see that these FNF companies, they spend 7% or 8% of sales in R and D, I mean invest.

如果你看看日化产品和食品饮料行业，只有2%到3%。

If you look at the HPC and the food and beverage, it's only 2% to 3%.

但这也因客户而异。

But it's also different by clients.

比如，有很多客户他们的能力并不强。

For example, you have a lot of clients who don't have very big capabilities.

但也有一些，比如我之前提到的宝洁。

But you have, for example, as I said, a P and G.

他们内部有一些香精研发能力。

They have some internal fragrance capabilities.

或者可能有些渠道，他们有自己的调香师，所以他们只买原材料。

Or maybe you have a channel, they have their own perfumer, so they will only buy the raw matte.

那些香精香料公司，所有的创意工作，他们都是免费做的。

The FNF companies, for all the creation, they are working for free.

所以他们才保留知识产权。

So that's why they keep the IP.

他们提交自己的创意和所有细节，然后客户最终会找很多终端消费者做测试。

They submit their creation, all the specificities, and then the clients, in the end, they will do testing with many end consumer.

然后客户会从香精香料公司的提案中选一个，把业务交给其中一家，这家公司就开始生产并开始赚钱。

Then they will choose one of the submission from the FNF, and they will award the business to one of them, which will start the production and start making money.

这有点像版税生意，前期有投入成本，但之后对成功的产品有选择权，这些产品可能会成为多年的摇钱树。

This is a bit like a royalty business where you have an upfront cost, but then you have optionality on the successful products, which might become a cash cow for many years.

我的假设是，一旦他们赢得了一个提案，只要那个产品还在市场上，比如他们赢得了一个苹果酱的香精香料提案。

My assumption would be that once they win a proposal, so long as that product stays in service, let's assume they win an applesauce proposal for FNF.

只要那个产品还在货架上销售，我认为他们就能持续获益。

As long as that product stays on shelves and is selling, I assume that they continue to reap the benefits.

在那之后，配方就不会有什么变化了。

You don't see any changes to the formula after that.

这又是一个非常关键且很好的行业特点，就是一旦你有了像非常著名的红色汽水或蓝色汽水这样的客户，几十年来在全球各地都以同样的口味销售，销量达数十亿，还有一家瑞士公司的特色咖啡，以及你每晚在沙发上享用的美味冰淇淋。

That's another very critical point and nice point of the industry is that once you have, for example, clients like a very famous red soda or blue soda selling for decades with the same taste everywhere for decades in the world, selling billions, you have a special coffee from a Swiss company, you have a wonderful ice cream that you get in your sofa every night.

一旦你有了这样的现金牛产品或亿万级产品，转换成本就非常巨大，因为如果你改变1%，你没有任何回报，也没有动力为了节省一点点成本去改变配方。

Once you have a cash cow or billionaire products like this, the switching costs are enormous because if you change 1%, you have no reward, no incentive to save a tiny fraction of your cost to change your formula.

这就是为什么会有现金牛业务。

That's why you have cash cow business.

即使你看着一个小客户，或者像lipop这样的小型高增长企业，如果你依赖一个或几个规模小但增长快的产品，而这对你来说非常重要。

And even if you look at a small client, or lipop or some smaller business with high growth, if you are relying on one or a few products that are small but high growth, but for you, that's very important.

同样，你也没有动力。

Also, you have no incentive.

你不会冒险去改变，因为风险太大了。

You don't take the risk to change because it's too risky.

甚至在你谈论品牌认知之前，就有安全、健康方面的风险。

Even before you talk about brand perception, you have safety, health failure.

当你转向一个不可靠的供应商时。

While you go to an untrusted supplier.

这就是为什么这个行业粘性特别强。

That's why it's a very sticky business.

还有一点也很重要，在香精业务里，你还要考虑 FNF 公司提供的香精成本。

And something which is also important is that in the flavor business, you have the cost of the flavor that FNF company provides.

这大概只占客户成本的 1%。

It's just maybe 1% of the client's costs.

就算是在香料业务里，也才占客户成本的 5%。

Even on the fragrance business, it's just 5% of the client's cost.

所以你们没有动力去改变。

So you have no incentive to change.

但另一方面，客户的采购团队——根据我们从专家那里听到的说法——一直在努力争取回扣。

But on the other hand, you have the procurement team of the clients, which from what we heard from experts is they are constantly trying to get rebates on this.

有时候会有维持价格的合同。

Sometimes you have contracts to maintain the price.

有时候则没有合同。

Sometimes you don't have contracts.

但遇到原材料大幅涨价的时候，芬美意就得跟客户谈判，想办法把成本转嫁给他们。

But when you are in terms of big raw materials inflation, the FNF company has to negotiate to try to pass it to the clients.

这又是他们之间的一场谈判。

That's another negotiation between them.

你能大概告诉我芬美意这个市场有多大吗？

Can you just give me a sense of the size of the FNF market?

你提到他们是市场领导者。

You mentioned they're the market leader.

这个市场到底有多大？

How big is this?

我大概可以根据香精香料和香水的占比倒推一下，但还是想了解一下背景。

I can probably back out math based on what percentage of F and B versus fragrance it is, but just some context.

我很想知道这个市场的大致规模，以及它是怎么增长的，或者有没有什么趋势，这些都会很有意思。

I'd be curious to know the general size of the market, how much it's either growing over time, any type of trends to the market size would be interesting as well.

奇华顿活跃的领域主要是定制化和量身定制的产品，而不是基础大宗商品。

The segments where Givaudan is active, so they are mostly in customized and tailored products, not basic commodities.

所以在香精方面，如果看整个市场，大概是300亿瑞士法郎。

So in flavor, if you take all the market, they are it's roughly CHF30 billion.

在香水和美容方面，市场大概是250亿瑞士法郎。

In fragrance, the market fragrance and beauty, it's around CHF25 billion.

同样，我们提到的客户，加上本地、区域和独立品牌。

Again, the clients we mentioned, plus local and regional and indie brands.

市场份额在香水和香精之间有点不同。

The market share, it's a bit different between fragrance and flavors.

在香水领域，有四大巨头。

In fragrance, there is the big four.

有奇华顿，还有另一家瑞士公司叫芬美意，几年前被DSM收购了。

So you have Givaudan, another Swiss company, which is called Fiermenich, which was acquired by DSM a few years ago.

然后还有美国的IFF，稍微小一点的是德国的Symrise。

And then you have US based IFF, then a bit smaller, you have the German Samurai.

这就是四大玩家。

These are the big four players.

再往下，销售额就低很多了。

And then it goes much lower in terms of sales.

比如，有两家法国公司。

And you have, for example, two French companies.

一家是私有的，叫曼内特。

One is private, it's called Manet.

这两家公司都位于普罗旺斯。

The two companies are based in Provence.

还有一家很棒的上市公司，创立于1850年。

You have another great listed business founded in 1850.

它叫罗伯特。

It's called Robertet.

他们在原材料方面有很好的利基市场。

They have a very nice niche in raw materials.

所以这两家规模小得多。

So these two are much smaller.

然后还有很多小公司，但四大巨头控制了香氛市场大约三分之二的份额。

And then you have a lot of small players, but the big four players, they control something like two thirds of the market in fragrance.

而且这个格局非常稳定，几十年来都很稳定。

And it's very stable, so it's very stable for decades.

在调味品领域，全球市场则更加分散。

In flavors, it's more fragmented around the world.

较大的公司大约只占10%的市场份额。

The bigger players, they have something like 10% market share.

几十年来，这些公司几乎没变。

The players are almost the same for decades.

有趣的是，这里的竞争更像是打高尔夫球，而不是像以色列格斗术那样激烈对抗。

And what is interesting is that the competition in general is more like a golf contest than Krav Maga fight, for example.

这些公司都很理性。

The player are rational.

有时候他们甚至互相出售某些特定原料。

Sometimes they even sell some specific ingredients to each other.

他们不会在价格上疯狂竞争。

They are not competing crazy on price.

他们真正比拼的是创新。

They are really competing on innovation.

有时候这迫使你不能自满。

Sometimes it forces you not to become complacent.

在某些行业，问题在于如果增长持续不断，太容易了，你就会停止创新。

Sometimes in some kind of industries, a problem is when you have recurring growth, it's too easy and you stop innovating.

但这个行业不是这样。

So it's not the case in this industry.

就市场增长而言，正如你问的，终端市场确实主要是防御性的，我们看到了这一点。

In terms of market growth, as you asked, the end markets are really mainly defensive, as we have seen.

这是高频、可重复、小额交易，所以很稳定。

It's high frequency, repeatable, small ticket transactions, so stable.

根据我们找到的所有数据，这个行业预计每年稳定增长4%到5%。

From all the figures that we found, the industry is estimated to grow constantly at 4% to 5% per year.

如果你翻看奇华顿2000年的招股说明书，看看当时市场的数字，算一下复合年增长率，你会发现直到今天确实是每年5%。

If you dig into the IPO prospectus of Givaudan in the year 2000, you check the figure that the markets were at the time, you calculate that the CAGR is really 5% per year up to today.

通常，FNF公司会有收入流失。

Typically the FNF companies, they have a revenue churn.

也就是说，因为消费者口味变化或者产品缺位，会有竞争，导致业务流失。

So the business you lose because the consumer's taste change or there is no product, so there is competition.

这意味着大约有10%的业务会消失。

So it means you have 10% that disappear roughly.

所以，如果你想实现5%的增长，你就得创造15%的新产品、新创意。

So if you want to achieve 5% growth, it means that you have to create 15% new products, new creations.

每年都是如此。

Every year.

这意味着，比如奇华顿销售成千上万种产品，而你必须赢得项目，每年创造数千种新产品。

So it means, for example, Givaudan is selling tens of thousands of products and you have to win briefs and create thousands of new products each year.

所以，这真是一台创新机器。

So really an innovation machine.

在时尚香水或小型初创公司中，客户流失率要高得多，其中很多都做不起来，而且流失率比亿万富翁即饮产品还要高，这很合理。

The churn rate is much higher on trendy perfume or small startups where a lot of them don't succeed and the churn rate is higher than a billionaire ready to drink, for example, logically.

如果你看增长率，这4%或5%的数字背后，其实有很多不同的情况，因为新兴市场国家的增长速度平均是发达国家的四倍。

If you look at the growth rate, this 4% or 5%, below the surface, there are very different things to know because you have EM countries that are growing on average four times faster than developed countries.

所以过去十年，成熟市场大约增长2%，高增长国家大约增长8%。

So over the last decade, it was around 2% for mature markets, roughly 8% for the high growth countries.

本地和区域市场平均增长速度要快三到四倍。

The local and regional, they are growing on average three to four times faster.

这确实是推动增长的主要动力。

That's really driving the growth.

对。

Yes.

我想人口增长和整体消费增长是其中很大一部分，但您认为这个更广泛的数字背后的主要增长驱动力是什么？

I would imagine that population growth and general growth of consumption is a big piece of this, but what would you say are the underlying growth drivers of that broader number?

整个行业有很多增长驱动力。

You have tons of growth driver in the industry in general.

他们受益于人口增长，消费者更多了，也受益于城市化，人们搬进城里，消费方式也随之改变。

They benefit from population growth, more consumers, they benefit from urbanization, people who move in town and change the way they consume.

新兴市场的可支配收入也在不断增长。

You have the rising disposable income in EM.

还有很多趋势，比如天然、可持续采购、更健康的选择，以及独立品牌的激增。

You have lots of trends like natural, sustainable sourcing, better for you, the multiplication of indie brands.

在口味方面，人们想要更少的糖、脂肪和盐，但当然不想牺牲他们喜爱的味道。

If you go in flavor, the people want less sugar, less fat, less salt, but don't want to sacrifice, of course, on the taste they love.

他们想要更健康的食品和饮料，比如蛋白质和乳制品替代品。

They want healthier food and beverage, protein and dairy alternatives.

你必须改善外观。

You have to improve the aspect.

你必须改善口味。

You have to improve the taste.

你必须掩盖某些成分。

You have to mask ingredients.

你还得改善口感。

You have to improve the texture.

在美国，有一个趋势是用天然色素替代人工染料。

There is the trend of, in The US, natural colors to replace artificial dyes.

预计未来五年市场将增长10%。

The market is expected to grow 10% in the next five years.

如果你看香水和美容行业，情况也差不多。

If you go on fragrance and beauty, it's a bit the same.

人们想要更少的成分、更好的成分，但他们希望效果和气味完全一样。

People want less ingredients, better ingredients, but they want exactly the same effects and smell.

比如，你需要提高香气与碳的比例。

You need to improve, for example, the scent to carbon ratio.

你需要提高香气与体积的比例。

You need to improve the scent to volume ratio.

现在有个趋势，人们希望瓶子里有更多的精华，也就是更高的香精浓度。

There is a trend with people who want more juice in the bottle, so more fragrance concentration.

年轻一代对香水更感兴趣。

You have young generation, they are more interested in fragrance.

他们尝试很多产品。

They are trying lots of products.

社交媒体和TikTok网红的影响正在推动增长。

There is the impact of social network and TikTok influencers that's driving growth.

有封装技术，也就是香水释放的方式，必须持续更长时间。

You have encapsulation technology, so it's the way that the fragrance is released, which must stay longer.

它必须更可生物降解。

It must be more biodegradable.

还有高端化趋势。

You have premiumization.

消费者变得更加精明。

You have people that are more savvy.

他们希望面霜中有更多活性成分。

They want more active in their skin cream.

还有人口老龄化，他们有更强的购买力，可能消费更多的美容和健康产品。

You have population aging, they have more purchasing power, they consume more beauty maybe and health products.

所以有大量的驱动因素。

So you have tons of driver.

我记得马克·吐温在淘金热时期说过。

And I think it was Mark Trane during the gold rush.

那时候做铲子和旅行生意是个好时机。

It's a good time to be in the pick and travel business.

那些大型且多元化的香精香料公司，能够从所有这些趋势中受益，而不会过度依赖某一个特定领域。

The big and most diversified FNF companies, they can benefit with all these trends without being too exposed on one specific segment.

相对于四大中的其他三家，你认为奇华顿的做法有什么不同之处吗？

Relative to the other three in the big four, what would you say is differentiated about Givaudan's approach, if anything?

他们是全球香精领域的领导者。

They are the leader in fragrances globally.

他们在高端香水上拥有大约25%的全球市场份额。

They have around 25% global market share in fine fragrances.

他们在高端香水和淡香精方面非常强。

They are very strong in prestige and eau parfumery.

而且过去几年他们增长非常强劲，市场份额也提升了。

They have also increased their market share because over the last few years, they have really strong growth.

从有机增长来看，自2019年以来，他们在高端香水领域的业务翻了一番，非常厉害。

Organically, they have doubled their business in fine fragrances since 2019, so very strong.

他们在日用消费品香精方面也是全球领先的参与者。

They are also very strong global player in consumer fragrances.

比如洗发水、肥皂、地板清洁剂、洗衣液，他们在全球大约有20%的市场份额。

So shampoo, soap, floor cleaner, laundry detergent, they have roughly a 20% market share worldwide.

他们在这个领域确实是领导者。

They are really the leader on that part.

他们的规模相对较小。

They are smaller.

他们在活性美容领域也很活跃。

They are also active in active beauty.

他们的规模较小。

They are smaller.

他们对大众化香精原料的依赖度较低。

They have low exposure to commoditized fragrance ingredients.

那只是个位数低段。

It's a low single digit.

他们是行业领导者。

They are the leader.

他们与之前提到的芬美意最为接近。

They are the one which is closer with what we mentioned is Firmenich.

然后还有IFF和萨穆里。

And then you have IFF and Samurai's.

在另一个部门，即口味与健康，也就是香精方面。

On the other division, the taste and well-being, so the flavor.

他们也是顶尖玩家，但市场更为分散。

They're also the top player, but it's more fragmented.

在香精市场，他们大概有10%到15%的份额，主要集中在定制化程度最高的领域，而不是那些基础业务或低利润业务。

They have maybe 10%, 15% market share in the flavor markets or the most customized, not in the very basic businesses, low margin business.

他们确实是创新方面的领头羊。

They are really a leader of innovation.

他们拥有大量的知识产权。

They own tons of IP.

过去几年，他们在研发上投入了30亿瑞士法郎。

And they spend CHF3 billion over the last few years in R and D.

这占销售额的8%，比竞争对手投入得更多。

It's 8% of sales more than the competition.

他们拥有5000项专利。

They own 5,000 patents.

他们在全球有60个研发和创意中心，分布在巴西、墨西哥、东欧和南非。

They have 60 research and creation centers worldwide in Brazil, in Mexico, Eastern Europe, in South Africa.

所以他们掌握着当地消费者的数据。

So they have local data on consumers.

他们有洞察力。

They have insight.

他们能预判消费者趋势的走向。

They can anticipate where everything is going on in terms of consumer trends.

他们有一个大团队，专门追踪和筛选数百家初创公司。

They have a big team that is chasing and screening hundreds of startups.

他们是1946年开设调香学校的先驱。

They are the pioneer to open performing school in 1946.

最好的调香师大多都上过这所学校。

Most of the best perfumer went in the school.

他们有很多博士，有二百位调香师，还有一些明星级的人物。

They have tons of PhD, they have two hundred noses, they have some stars.

比如卡莉斯·贝克，她创造了标志性的雅尔杜·卢森堡，现在她是调香学校的校长。

For example, Callis Baker, she created the iconic Jardot de Luxembourg, and she's now head of the performing school.

他们还有一些非常棒、非常有趣的创新。

They have also very nice, very interesting innovations.