Motorola Solutions: From Zero to Hero - [Business Breakdowns, EP.171]

这里是《商业拆解》。

This is Business Breakdowns.

《商业拆解》是一档系列访谈，邀请投资者和经营者深入剖析某一家企业的运营细节。

Business Breakdowns is a series of conversations with investors and operators diving deep into a single business.

每期节目，我们都会梳理这家企业的来龙去脉、商业模式、竞争优势，以及它成功的关键所在。

For each business, we explore its history, its business model, its competitive advantages, and what makes it tick.

我们相信，每一家企业背后都有值得学习的经验和不为人知的秘诀，而我们的任务就是把这些东西带给你。

We believe every business has lessons and secrets that investors and operators can learn from, and we are here to bring them to you.

想收听更多《商业拆解》的节目，请访问 joincolossus.com。

To find more episodes of breakdowns, check out joincolossus.com.

节目中主持人和嘉宾表达的所有观点，仅代表他们个人的看法。

All opinions expressed by hosts and podcast guests are solely their own opinions.

主持人、嘉宾，以及他们的雇主或关联方，可能持有节目中讨论的证券。

Hosts, podcast guests, their employers, or affiliates may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

本节目仅供信息参考，不应作为投资决策的依据。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.

欢迎回到《Business Breakdowns》。

Welcome back to Business Breakdowns.

今天我们要讲一个品牌与业务之间差异的精彩故事，主角是摩托罗拉。

Today, we have a fascinating story of brand versus business as we cover Motorola.

在2000年代的大部分时间里，摩托罗拉都稳居Interbrand全球百大品牌榜单。

Motorola was a mainstay on Interbrands top 100 brand list for most of the two thousands.

一想到那些老式翻盖手机和Razer型号，我就忍不住怀旧，但后来苹果和三星拿走了这个市场。

I get nostalgia thinking about those old flip phones and the Razer model, but Apple and Samsung took over that market.

不过，摩托罗拉并没有就此落幕，而是找到了自己的生存之道。

It was not the end for Motorola, and they found their own way to thrive.

本期节目，我邀请了投资组合经理约瑟夫·沙波什尼克，一起探讨摩托罗拉在过去十五年里如何悄然取得成功。

For this episode, I'm joined by portfolio manager Joseph Shaposhnik, and we get into how Motorola achieved this stealth success over the past fifteen years.

我们会聊到CEO格雷格·布朗如何与两位，甚至可以说是三位激进投资者合作，聚焦于关键通信领域，锁定特定客户群体，并打造软硬件融合的新模式。

We get into how CEO Greg Brown worked with two and arguably three activist investors to focus on mission critical communications, a very specific customer segment, and a more blended hardware software model.

这真是一个企业精准找到细分市场并完美执行的绝佳案例。

It's a truly great example of a business finding a niche and executing to a t.

希望大家喜欢这期关于摩托罗拉的节目。

Please enjoy this episode on Motorola.

好的，约瑟夫。

Alright, Joseph.

很高兴你再次做客《商业拆解》，也很期待和你一起聊聊摩托罗拉。

It is great to have you back on Business Breakdowns and excited to get into Motorola with you.

一想到两千年初的摩托罗拉、翻盖手机，还有那个年代，我就挺怀念的。

I have nostalgia thinking about Motorola in the early two thousands, flip phones, and that era.

说实话，那之后我就没怎么再想过摩托罗拉了。

And I'll be honest, I haven't thought about Motorola too much since then.

但听你这么一说，我再看这个名字，感觉就不一样了。

Yet I look at this name as you talk to me about it.

它现在的市值有六百亿美元。

It's got a $60,000,000,000 market cap.

显然，这里头藏着一个特别有意思的故事。

So, clearly, there's a very interesting story here.

我想先问一下，你能给我们简单介绍一下摩托罗拉现在在做什么吗？

And I just wanna kick it off with, can you give us a snapshot of what Motorola is doing today?

马特，要了解他们现在的状况，得回过头看看你记忆中那些美好的时光，比如他们推出Razer翻盖手机、大家为之疯狂的那些年。

Well, Matt, I think to have a snapshot of what they're doing today, it's important to go back to the days that you remember so fondly, the days when they were producing the Razer flip phone, and people were so excited about that.

那些日子在2006年、2007年、2008年就结束了。

Those days came to an end, 2006, 2007, 2008.

手机市场开始发生转折。

The handset market began to roll over.

iPhone开始抢占市场份额。

The iPhone began to take market share.

那时候，摩托罗拉主要经营三大业务：手机业务，占公司整体业务的很大一部分；网络业务，生产有线电视机顶盒；还有第三个业务，也就是他们今天还在做的陆地移动无线电业务，这三个业务的销售额大致各占三分之一。

And at the time, Motorola was really involved in three businesses, the cell phone business, which was a big part of their overall business, a networks business where they made cable set top boxes, and a third business, which is the business that they're in today, the Land Mobile Radio business, all of which are about a third of sales.

随着手机业务受到冲击，公司整体开始下滑，卡尔·伊坎在2007年介入，推动公司拆分，并力主把手机业务独立出去。

As the business began to deteriorate because the razor in their cell phone business was under pressure, Carl Icahn came in in 2007 and pushed for a breakup of the company and was pushing for a split off of the cell phone business.

他心里早有合适的人选，最后也成功实现了这个目标。

He had a CEO in mind, and he succeeded in accomplishing that.

2011年1月，摩托罗拉移动业务被拆分出来，摩托罗拉解决方案公司就此成立，格雷格·布朗被任命为首席执行官。

So in January 2011, Motorola Mobility, the cell phone business, was separated, and for all intents and purposes, Motorola Solutions was born, and Greg Brown was made CEO.

这就是今天所说的摩托罗拉解决方案公司。

And that's really the Motorola Solutions of today.

我们能不能具体看看，格雷格·布朗接手这个新公司后，他具体做了什么规划？在最初的几年里，他如何为公司未来十年的发展打下基础？

Can we just zoom in on what Greg Brown does as he takes over this newly split business, what he lays out, and basically paved the path over the next ten years, what happened in those early days to set the business up into what it is today.

格雷格在摩托罗拉工作了二十多年，之前曾负责过三大业务中的两个——网络业务和陆地移动无线电业务，后来才升任这家新公司的首席运营官兼首席执行官。

Greg has been at Motorola for twenty plus years and had run, I believe, two out of the three major divisions, the networks in the Land Mobile Radio business prior to becoming chief operating officer and CEO of this new Motorola or what they call now Motorola Solutions.

他成功的关键，在于发现了这个被埋没的宝藏——一个藏在业务细分中的无人关注的亮点。

One of the keys to his success was focusing this business on this undiscovered crown jewel that most couldn't see because it was buried within a segment of a segment.

就在卡尔·艾坎逐渐减少对公司施压的同时，又一位新 activist 出现了，格雷格不得不应对第二位激进投资者。

Just as Carl Icahn was ramping down his pressure on the company, interestingly, a new activist emerged, and Greg had a grapple with a second activist.

这位新 activist 出现在2011年或2012年左右，主要关注如何优化摩托罗拉充裕的现金资产负债表。

The new activist, which came into the story in, I think, 2011 or 2012, they were focused on optimizing Motorola's cash rich balance sheet.

当时公司手握大量现金，债务却很少，他们认为公司的成本结构需要优化，明显比行业合理水平高出大约十个基点。

They had a ton of cash and very little debt at the time, improving the company's cost structure, so it was clear that they were probably a thousand basis points or so bloated relative to where they should be.

于是，格雷格把第二项业务——有线机顶盒网络业务——卖掉了，这事发生在2012年初左右，成功让摩托罗拉聚焦在唯一一项业务上：陆地移动无线电业务，这是当时他们所有资产中最吸引人的部分。

And so what Greg did was sell off the second business, which was the cable set top box networks business that took place early on in the 2012 time frame or so, and managed to get Motorola focused in on this single business, the Land Mobile Radio business, which is the most attractive of all of the assets that they had back then.

在头五年里，他们回购了公司大约三分之一的市值，价格非常低，因为分拆之后，市场对这家公司的理解很混乱，股价的市盈率大概只有十几倍。

And they repurchased about a third of the company's market cap over the first five year period at a multiple that was very low because after the split, the story was pretty misunderstood, and I think the stock traded at kind of a low teens earnings multiple.

当时他们回购股票的价格极具吸引力。

They were buying back stock at very, very attractive valuations at the time.

他们还专注于优化公司的地产布局，把业务规模精简下来。

And they focused on optimizing the real estate footprint of the company and getting this business slimmed down.

无论是他自己的想法，还是投资者提的建议，他都执行得相当成功。

He was pretty successful in executing on either his ideas or the ideas that the investors brought to him.

我觉得这让他赢得了投资者极大的信任。

And I think that that really helped him gain a lot of confidence with investors.

最终，来自投资人的压力慢慢平息了，那些激进投资者在2016年退出，卖掉了手里的股份。

And, eventually, the challenges from the investor base quieted down, and the activists left the story in 2016 and sold their shares.

之后他就专心继续打造这家公司，而故事的下一阶段，是银湖资本在2016到2017年进场，帮助他们拓展到相关领域。

And he was left to continue to build this business, and then the next leg of the story was the entrance of Silver Lake who came in in 2016, 2017, and helped them grow into adjacent areas.

这些延伸领域包括视频监控和指挥中心软件。

And those adjacent areas were video surveillance and command center software.

要说接连面对两轮激进投资者的施压，还有一连串重量级投资方，比如银湖资本，作为第三股关键力量，这确实非同寻常。

I must say to have the back to back activist campaigns and just the amount of high profile investors that you are dealing with, including Silver Lake, you know, as kind of the third leg in that stool, is remarkable in many ways.

我不清楚还有多少管理团队能撑这么久，经历这么多关键节点。

And I don't know how many management teams have survived that long to go through that many moments in time.

所以特别值得细说一下最初的分拆，以及第二轮激进投资者进场时的情况。你说市场可能误解了摩托罗拉，我想象中，大家觉得它增长缓慢，但业务稳定，回购计划也只是想稳住局面。

So it is quite interesting just to zero in a bit on that initial spin and the second activist coming in, when you say the market maybe misunderstood Motorola, I'm picturing something where it was expected to have low growth, but maybe kind of a steady, stable business, and that's what they were going for with the recapitalization.

你可以适当加点杠杆，但并不指望未来会有大幅增长。

You can add some leverage to this, but you're not expecting major growth in the future.

当时市场真是这么看的吗？还是说你当时也难以判断实际情况？

Was that the perception at the time, or to the extent that you couldn't opine on what was happening in the moment?

我觉得投资者对这个故事的理解确实如此，但大多数人都找不到能和摩托罗拉直接对比的公司——一边是硬件网络业务，属于一次性销售；另一边是剃须刀式对讲机业务，虽然带点软件，但硬件占比很高，而且绑定的是市政市场，需求非常稳定，可这个硬件业务的利润率却高得异常。

I think that's a good way to explain the way investors had understood the story, but I think that most investors couldn't find a comparable business to compare Motorola to because you have this hardware networks business, which is a one time sale, and then you have this razor blade radio business, which has got some software but a lot of hardware associated with it, but also tied to municipal markets which tend to be very predictable, yet the margins on this hardware business were unusually high.

所以投资者都在琢磨：这到底是个什么生意？

So investors were grappling with, what do we have here?

这质量真有看起来那么高吗？

Is this as high quality as it looks?

这家公司是臃肿了，还是现在的成本结构刚刚好？

Is this business bloated, or is this the right kind of cost base for this company?

我们不太清楚这公司到底是什么情况，也不清楚这个没什么名气的管理团队能把它带向何方。

It isn't quite clear what we have here and what this management team, which wasn't really known, what they could do with it.

Icon大张旗鼓地行动，接着又一个激进投资者进场闹腾，搞得满城风雨，大家对这公司到底在做什么都糊涂了。

You have Icon making a lot of noise, and then another activist coming in making a lot of noise, which kind of put a lot of dust in the air and created a lot of uncertainty as to what this business was all about.

你能大概给我们讲讲这家公司的财务数据吗？怎么安排都行，收入按业务板块分，只要能帮我们把数字和摩托罗拉的实际业务联系起来就行。

Can you just give us the sketch of the numbers of this business, however you would lay it out, revenue, by segment, whatever you think is the best way to connect numbers into what Motorola is doing.

摩托罗拉每年营收大约一百亿美元，自由现金流二十亿美元，资本回报率高达百分之三十。

So Motorola generates about $10,000,000,000 of annual sales, $2,000,000,000 of free cash flow, and generates a 30% return on capital employed.

这真是个规模不小、利润丰厚的生意。

So really a profitable business at scale here.

大约四分之三的收入来自陆地移动无线电业务，剩下的则来自快速增长的视频监控和指挥中心软件业务。

About three quarters of total sales come from the Land Mobile Radio business, and the remainder come from their fast growing video surveillance and command center software businesses.

无线电业务规模相当大。

The radio business is pretty sizable.

全美、欧洲和澳大利亚已经部署了大约一万三千个摩托罗拉网络。

So about 13,000 Motorola networks have been deployed across The US, Europe, and Australia.

我们估计他们在这些部署中占据了约80%的市场份额，而在后续的无线电销售中，占比可能更高。

We think they have about 80% market share of those deployments and perhaps an even higher percentage of the radio sales that come after that.

他们花了数十年时间，才建立起这么庞大的市场地位。

So a huge market position that they've developed over many, many decades.

举个例子，通常客户会同意安装一套陆地移动无线电网络，并与摩托罗拉签订长期供货协议，由摩托罗拉在多年内为其应急人员或商业客户提供无线电设备。

Just to give you a sense as to how the transaction works for a typical customer, typically, a customer agrees to have a LMR network installed, It agrees to a long term supply agreement with Motorola to have Motorola supply it radios for its first responders or commercial customers for a number of years.

这个业务模式很经典，就像剃须刀和刀片——一开始卖网络（剃须刀），之后长期持续地向客户销售无线电设备（刀片）。

The business operates in that classic razor razor blade business model where they sell the razor, which is the network at the start, and then they sell radios really perpetually for a long period of time to the customer.

摩托罗拉大约每五到六年就会推出一款新型号的无线电设备，通常价格更高，功能也更先进。

And Motorola tends to come out with a new radio model every five or six years, typically at a higher price point with new features.

从客户结构来看，约四分之三的业务来自政府领域，主要是公共安全相关，其余部分则是商业客户和重工业客户。

Just to give you a sense on the customer base, about three quarters of the business is tied to the government sector, typically tied to public safety, with the remainder being commercial customers and heavy industries.

市政部门和市政预算对陆地移动无线电业务，甚至在一定程度上对软件业务，都是关键推动力。

Municipalities and municipal budgets are really a key driver for the LMR business and to some extent, the software business as well.

明白了。

Understood.

如果我看看他们现在主要做什么，是那两个不属于蜂窝业务的业务还在保留吗？还是格雷格之后对业务做了哪些调整？

So if I think about what they're working with today, is it those two businesses that they had that weren't part of the, basically, cellular business that remain, or what did Greg do with the business since then?

简单说说目前摩托罗拉的业务构成和主要板块有哪些。

Just a snapshot of what it looks like and what segments are included in Motorola.

涉及的方面太多了，我觉得这正是这个故事的关键所在。

So many things, and I think that's one of the keys to the story.

格雷格成功的关键之一，就是聚焦在一个没人看得出来的宝藏上——它藏在一个细分领域的更细分板块里。

Greg, one of the keys to his success was focusing this business on this undiscovered crown jewel that most couldn't see because it was buried within a segment of a segment.

所以格雷格把第二块业务，也就是有线机顶盒网络业务，给卖掉了。

And so what Greg did was sell off the second business, which was the cable set top box networks business.

这件事发生在2012年左右，算是比较早的时候。

That took place early on in, I think, 2012 timeframe or so.

接着他还有第三个业务，就是陆地移动无线电业务，同时还附带了一些其他相关业务。

And then he had the third business, which is the Land Mobile Radio business, but with some other businesses associated with that as well.

他随后把与扫描技术相关的其他业务都卖掉了，让摩托罗拉集中精力做这一个业务——陆地移动无线电，这是当时所有资产中最具吸引力的。

He proceeded to sell off the other businesses associated with scanning technology and managed to get Motorola focused in on this single business, the Land Mobile Radio business, which is the most attractive of all of the assets that they had back then.

你能解释一下，为什么说它是块瑰宝吗？

Can you explain some of that in terms of it being a crown jewel?

我想到的无非是对讲机、陆地移动无线电，但背后的商业模式到底是什么？

I can think of walkie talkies, Land Mobile Radio, but what is the business behind what's going on there?

我知道这跟安全有关，但能不能再具体说说，到底发生了什么？

I know there's some security element, but can you capture it a little bit more just in terms of what's actually happening?

如今，陆地移动无线电业务占了公司总销售额的四分之三，这个业务的吸引力在于，全美现在有大约一万两千个陆地移动无线电网络，主要由地方政府用于应急服务。

The land mobile radio business is about three quarters of the company's total sales today, and the attractive part of this business is that you have 12,000 land mobile radio networks today that are predominantly used by municipalities for emergency service applications.

它的商业模式主要是：先为地方政府部署网络，这本身利润就很可观；然后长期为客户提供网络运维服务；更重要的是，还能持续获得无线电设备的销售收益——因为应急人员、安保人员这些用户，每五到六年就会更新一次设备。

The business model is essentially selling the network implementation, which is a profitable business, managing that network for the municipality, for the customer, but then gaining this perpetual stream of radio sales that tend to upgrade every five or six years for your first responders, for your security professionals, etcetera, etcetera.

所以摩托罗拉现在的工作，就是维护现有客户网络，同时不断研发更先进、更可靠的新型无线电设备，这些设备通常每五到六年就会被替换一次。

And so Motorola's business is maintaining the existing networks for their customers and investing in the creation of more innovative, more reliable radios for their customers, which tend to be sold every five or six years.

说到无线电销售，从硬件角度来看确实很合理。

And on that point, the radio sales make a lot of sense just in terms of being some type of hardware.

你提到网络部署和运维，具体是怎么运作的？

When you talk about that network implementation and managing the network, what's going on there?

这里面有软件成分吗？

Is there a software element?

摩托罗拉会派人现场安装调试吗？

Are there boots on the ground for Motorola setting things up?

能不能描述一下具体场景，让我更直观地理解？

If you could paint a picture just to bring that to life.

核心是保障整个网络的安全性和稳定性。

It's a focus on maintaining the overall security and reliability of the network.

他们提供网络安全服务、软件支持，还有备用电源，一旦发生自然灾害导致网络中断，也能快速响应恢复。

So they provide cybersecurity services, software services to maintain the network, backup power services, emergency response for the customer in the event a natural disaster has occurred and they're having an issue maintaining the viability of that network.

这类服务业务利润不错，但并不是增长主力，利润率也还行，就是不如卖无线电设备那么高。

And so that service element is a nice business, but it's not really the growth part of their business, and the margins there are okay, but not quite as attractive as selling radios, which tend to be higher margin.

这确实说得通，我能理解，正是这种整体服务让这个生意如此难以被取代。

Makes a lot of sense, and I can understand the overall offering is probably what makes it such a sticky business.

只要涉及到政府或市政机构，这类关系在长期来看都特别有价值。

And anytime you're dealing with governments or municipalities, anything in that area, that relationship can be so valuable over the long term.

再深入聊聊陆地移动无线电网络吧，拿Verizon或者AT&T来做个对比，我们通常会关心网络质量，而这往往取决于当地有没有光纤、有没有基站。

Just to harp a little bit more on the idea of the Land Mobile Radio Networks, if I just use the comparison of a Verizon or an AT and T, I can think about the quality of my network, and that's usually related to whether they have fiber optic cable in in the area, cell phone towers.

摩托罗拉的网络有没有埋在地下的基础设施，还是说完全靠无线电设备本身来运作？

Are there assets in the ground that Motorola owns, or is this just happening through the hardware itself of the radios?

摩托罗拉的陆地移动无线电网络相比传统蜂窝网络有几个关键优势。

The Motorola network or the Land Mobile Radio Networks have several key advantages over the traditional cellular network.

我觉得最重要的优势之一，就是网络的稳定性和所有权方对网络的完全掌控。

I think the first really important advantage is overall reliability and control of the network by the network owner.

比如警察部门，他们的通信能力至关重要。

So if you think about a police department, their communications abilities are critical.

一旦发生断电，LMR网络通常能靠备用电源支撑整整一周，而商用蜂窝网络一般只能撑几个小时。

In the event of an outage, a power outage, the LMR network typically has backup power that will last for a week versus a few hours for the commercial cellular network.

陆地移动无线电网络内置了多层冗余机制。

The Land Mobile Radio Network has multiple levels of redundancy built into it.

以美国使用的P25标准为例，即使核心系统瘫痪，网络仍能以站点为单位继续运行。

So as you think about the p 25 standard, which is the standard that is used in The United States, if the core or the equivalent of it were to fail, the network would continue to operate on a site by site basis.

如果多个站点同时出问题，用户之间仍可通过设备直连保持通信。

If multiple sites fail for whatever reason, users could continue to communicate between each other on a device to device basis.

传统运营商网络一旦核心系统崩溃，所有用户都会完全失去连接。

With a traditional carrier network, if the core part of the network fails, the users on the network will lose connectivity completely.

另一个关键优势是，陆地移动无线电网络拥有专属的频谱和带宽，不与普通民用蜂窝网络共享。

I think the other key aspect to it is the Land Mobile Radio Network has dedicated spectrum and capacity that isn't shared with the traditional consumer cellular networks.

发生灾难时，你肯定不希望应急人员的通信被普通用户打电话挤占而降速。

So during a disaster, you don't wanna have an emergency worker having his communications throttled down because consumers are trying to make calls between each other.

你绝不能让突发的通信高峰阻碍应急人员的联络。

So you don't want event overload preventing your emergency responders from being able to communicate.

最后，关于可靠性和控制力，尤其在紧急情况下，你必须能根据灾情地点动态分配网络资源。

And lastly, on the point of reliability and control, you wanna be able, particularly in an emergency, to prioritize the capacity of that network based on where the emergency is.

所以在紧急情况下，关键的应急通信可以优先于网络上的其他通信，这对警察队伍来说至关重要且非常实用。

So certain first responder communication can be prioritized over other communication that's taking place on that network during an emergency, and that can be very, very important and very useful to that police force.

我认为LMR网络与传统蜂窝网络的第二个关键区别在于硬件的可靠性和耐用性。

I think the second key differentiator of the LMR network versus the traditional cellular network is just the reliability and the ruggedization of the hardware.

想象一下消防员冲进着火的大楼，他们手中的通信设备必须能承受极高温度、大量水渍、粉尘环境，音量足够大，让他们能听清来回的指令，还要足够坚固，应对极其恶劣的环境。

So if you think about a firefighter storming into a burning building, the firefighter needs a communications device in hand that can withstand very high temperatures, lots of water, dusty conditions, and be loud enough for him or her to hear the communication that is going back and forth and be rugged enough to withstand what can be a very, very difficult environment.

由于网络架构的特殊性，这些设备通常比普通消费级设备耗电更多。

Typically, these devices require a lot more power than the traditional consumer devices because of the configuration of the network.

因此，这些设备必须支持连续十到十二小时的续航，普通消费设备根本做不到。

And so these devices need to have ten to twelve hours of continuous operating capabilities, which wouldn't be able to be supported by a consumer device.

所以设备本身完全不同，它的要求也截然不同。

So the device itself is very, very different, and its requirements are very, very different.

当然，用户希望在所有方面持续改进——音质、电池寿命、产品耐用性，以及在各种恶劣条件下稳定运行的能力，这些都极其重要。

Of course, customers are looking for continuous improvement across all of these vectors, the acoustics, the battery life, the ruggedness of the product, and its ability to hold up across multiple types of difficult conditions is very, very important.

不出所料，由于设备复杂，这类设备售价高达数千美元，远高于面向普通消费者的廉价设备。

And not surprisingly, because of the complexity of the devices, these devices are several thousand dollars as opposed to much less expensive devices that are sold to consumers.

所以完全不同。

So very, very different.

你能再详细说说视频安防吗？除了那些显而易见的方面，它具体包含哪些内容？

And could you get into a little bit more detail about video security, what that actually entails beyond some obvious things.

再具体讲讲摩托罗拉为客户提供哪些方案，以及他们在现场是如何使用的。

Just detail a little bit more about what Motorola is offering those customers and how they use it in the field.

简单说一下背景，摩托罗拉是通过收购Avigilon进入视频市场的，Avigilon为公司提供了如今所依赖的整套产品。

Just for some context, Motorola entered the video market through its acquisition of Avigilon, and Avigilon gave the company the product suite that it essentially operates today.

这套产品涵盖了从摄像头、智能分析、视频管理到视频存储的全流程解决方案，能满足客户对完整安防系统的所有需求。

And that product suite is an end to end portfolio of cameras, analytics, video management, video storage, everything you might need to be able to deliver a complete offering to the customer.

如今，视频监控在社会中的重要性已经大幅提升。

As you think about it, video surveillance has become much, much more important to our society.

比如，现在的监控系统能在有人携带武器进入学校或设施时，自动识别身份或物品，实时通知安保人员和警方，并精确定位威胁位置。

As an example, surveillance today can identify an individual or a weapon as they're walking into a school or a facility, notify security, notify the police, and indicate where that threat is in real time.

这种技术变得越来越先进，也愈发关键。

And that's become more sophisticated and certainly much more important.

视频监控正在发生重大变化，而且随着人工智能不断进化。

Video surveillance is, I think, changing significantly and evolving with AI.

最近我们收购了一家公司，它的唯一目标就是让企业不再需要派人整天盯着监控屏幕来观察设施安全。

Recently, acquired a company whose sole purpose is to eliminate the need for organizations to have teams of people sitting around looking at video monitors to monitor a facility.

如今，软件和人工智能已经足够先进，能够识别大多数威胁，并将信息实时传递给相关部门，比过去高效多了。

Today, software and AI is good enough to be able to identify most threats and relay that information to the authorities, which has made it much more efficient than what we had in the past.

那指挥中心的情况又是怎样的呢？

And then for Command Centers, what does that look like?

具体包括哪些内容？

What does that entail?

除了明显是在指挥中心内运作之外，它和其他领域有什么不同？

How's that different from the other segments besides the obvious of it's happening inside of Command Center?

摩托罗拉在那里提供了什么？

What is Motorola providing there?

长期以来，指挥中心都是靠多个系统拼凑起来的，还得靠笔和纸来记录。

Command Centers for the longest time were stitched together using multiple systems and pen and paper.

摩托罗拉在收购、开发和整合一套解决方案方面做得非常出色，让指挥中心的运作更加高效和顺畅。

Motorola has done a great job of acquiring, developing, and integrating a suite of solutions that allows for a much more efficient, effective command center operation.

他们把指挥中心的工作分成三个阶段：发现、响应和解决。

They break down the command center into three separate phases: detection, response, and resolution.

他们提供的软件能识别潜在的危险情况，也让用户可以上传图片或视频，报告可疑行为到指挥中心。

And so they provide software that allows for the detection of harmful situations, that allows for consumers to send or upload pictures or video which appear to show some suspicious behavior to a command center.

他们还提供响应软件，帮助指挥中心协调现场行动，以及解决软件，用于分类和集中存储事件相关记录。

They provide response software that allows for a coordinated response from the command center into the field, and resolution software which allows for the categorization and centralization of records from the incident to be recorded and to be stored.

这正是他们所提供的核心内容。

That's really what they're providing.

有趣的是，这和陆地移动无线电系统的客户群体非常接近。

Interestingly, this is very close to LMR, similar customers.

某种程度上，他们把一些陆地移动无线电技术引入了指挥中心，与现有业务高度协同。

In some ways, they're providing some LMR technology into the command center, so very synergistic with the existing business.

如果我们再往上看看，我觉得你之前已经提到过他们在不同市场中的定位。

And if we just go up a level, I think you gave some context for them in terms of the various markets.

听起来他们的业务遍布全球。

Sounds like they're very much global.

但这个市场有多大呢？

But how big is this market?

你知道摩托罗拉在这个市场的份额是多少吗？

Do you have any sense of what Motorola's market share is?

他们在这一细分市场中的渗透率有多高？

How penetrated are they in this unique market segment?

在陆地移动无线电领域，我们认为他们的市场份额大约是80%。

Within the land mobile radio business, we think they have about 80% market share.

目前真正还能称得上对手的，大概就两家：哈里斯公司和空客公司。

They have, I would say, one and a half real competitors that remain, and that's Harris who's in this business, and Airbus is also in this business.

剩下的竞争者就这些了，他们基本主导了这个市场的西方地区。

That's really the remainder of the competitive base, and they basically dominate the western part of this business.

既然他们已经占了80%的份额，那增长就得主要靠整个市场的扩张了。

In terms of the growth of that market, if they have that 80% market share, you are very much reliant on some type of market expansion.

这种情况正在发生吗？

Is that occurring?

有哪些因素会推动这个市场在未来继续扩大？

Are there drivers that would make this market expand more and more in the future?

在一定程度上是的。

To an extent.

这个行业过去一直与地方政府税收收入的增长密切相关，也就是说，它的增长跟GDP增速差不多。

So the business has historically been driven or been related to the growth in municipal tax receipts, and so that's a GDP like growth rate.

所以，如果他们想比这个速度更快地增长，就必须看到政府安全预算的增长超过地方财政预算的增长，而这种情况确实已经发生了。

And so for them to grow more quickly than that, they have to see government safety budgets grow faster than municipal budgets, and that certainly has happened.

他们还成功掌握了定价权，至少能跟上通胀步伐。

They also have been able to take pricing power to at least keep up with inflation.

过去几年，他们确实从各自市场中的通胀中获益不少。

So the last couple of years, they've certainly benefited from the inflation that's occurred in their markets.

所以，我觉得这个行业长期来看年均增速在中等个位数左右，但大概不会超过这个水平。

And so it's a business that grows, I think, on a secular basis at a mid single digit rate, but probably not more quickly than that.

我们之前聊了聊这里的收入情况。

And we've talked a bit about the top line story here.

我想再深入看看这个业务的财务模型是怎样的。

I wanna get a bit more into what the financial model looks like.

你提到有潜力把利润率提升整整十个百分点，这简直让人震惊。

You mentioned the opportunity to expand margins a thousand basis points, which is jaw dropping.

过去的利润率是什么样的？

What did the margin profile look like?

现在呢？现在的状况如何？

How does it look today?

这业务的运营杠杆高吗？

And is it a business with a ton of operating leverage?

你觉得这个数字会保持稳定吗？

Is it something where you see kind of that number stay steady?

你要是能帮我们理清一下这个点，会很有帮助。

Any framing you have for that is useful.

简单说一下，当初分拆完成后，这家公司的EBITDA利润率大概在百分之十几的水平。

Just to give you a sense, when they came out of the split, you had a business that was operating at kind of a mid teens EBITDA margin at the time.

后来通过一系列举措，比如彻底调整了房地产布局、大幅裁员、优化整体成本结构，才有了现在的变化。

And through various activities, which included dramatically refashioning the real estate footprint, reducing the number of employees, optimizing the cost structure of the business.

我记得在这期间，格雷格换了三任CFO。

I can't help but remember Greg went through, I think, three CFOs in this process.

所以对他们来说，这绝对不是一段轻松的旅程。

So I think it was not an easy process for them.

利润率从原来的百分之十几，提升到了现在的近百分之三十。

Margins have improved from mid teens to now high twenties.

他们在提升公司盈利能力方面做得非常出色。

So they've done an incredible job improving the profitability of the business.

在这段时间里，他们回购了大约一半的流通股，平均成本价只有现在股价的三分之一左右。

Through that period of time, they repurchased about 50% of the shares outstanding at an average price that's about a third relative to where the stock is trading today.

他们在资本配置上非常精明，这一点对一家增长相对缓慢的公司来说，甚至更重要。

So they had a keen keen eye on capital allocation, which is, I would argue, even more important for a business that is a relatively modest growth company.

所以他们必须在恰当的时机，精准地调动各种手段，才让这个转型成功。

And so they had to pull a lot of different levers at the right time to make this story work out.

但多年来，他们也极大地提升了业务的增长潜力。

But they've also enhanced the growth profile of the business dramatically over the years.

正如我们之前提到的，他们几年前通过收购进入了视频监控领域，这步棋简直太妙了。如今，视频监控业务由一家美国公司掌控变得越来越重要，我认为这给他们带来了巨大优势。

As we've talked about, they entered the video surveillance business, which turned out to be a master stroke through an acquisition some years ago, and it's become increasingly important for video surveillance to be owned by an American company, and that I believe has helped them significantly.

他们还进一步扩展了视频业务，现在这部分收入占公司总收入的15%左右，而且增速保持在两位数。

They've also added on to that video business, and today that's about 15% of revenue, but growing at a double digit rate.

这个业务利润很高，所以他们并没有为了追求更快增长而牺牲公司的利润率。

It's quite profitable, so they aren't sacrificing the margins of the company to enter a faster growing space.

而且它和现有客户群高度协同，我认为这是公司做出的另一项非常明智的决策。

And it's also so synergistic with the current customer base, which I think is one of the other very intelligent decisions that the company made.

他们进入了两个新领域，但都和现有业务紧密相关——毕竟他们的核心客户是应急响应人员和安防相关机构。

They entered two new spaces, but they're very adjacent to the existing business, which is obviously selling to first responders and security related entities.

所以视频监控的客户群体和他们原来的客户几乎完全重合。

And so video surveillance, the customer base is very very similar.

他们用差不多的渠道同时做直销和间接销售。

They've used very similar channels to sell both indirect and direct.

所以他们充分利用了原有的客户关系来推动业务增长。

So they've really leveraged the relationships they've had to grow that business.

我认为这大大提升了公司的增长前景。

And I think that has helped to enhance the growth profile of the business.

当然，他们还进入了软件领域，现在软件业务约占公司收入的10%左右，主要销售给指挥中心和911应急系统用的控制软件。

And certainly entering the software space, which they did as well, software is about 10% or so of the business today where they sell software, control software to command centers and nine one one facilities.

同样是借助相同的渠道，软件业务利润率高，增长速度也快过原有的LMR业务。

Again, leveraging the exact same channel, high margin business grows more quickly than the existing LMR business.

这些资产的组合，加上稳定可预期的增长和执行力，极大地提升了这家公司的估值水平。

And that combination of assets, I think along with very predictable growth and execution, has been very enhancing to the multiple of this business.

我2012年开始关注这家公司的时候，它的自由现金流收益率大概在8%到10%之间。

So when I started following the business in 2012, this was a eight, nine, 10% free cash flow yielding business.

现在自由现金流收益率已经降到3.25%了，我觉得这很大程度上得益于上述所有因素的综合作用。

Today, the free cash flow yields at three and a quarter percent, and I think a lot of that has to do with the combination of all of those factors.

是的。

Yeah.

这种转变和他们实际达成的成果，确实非常惊人。

That's pretty incredible in terms of how the perception has changed and what they've been able to execute on.

听起来早期主要是成本优化，现在则可能是成本优化带来的运营杠杆，再加上你提到的定价能力，两者结合的结果。

It sounds like the early days is very much cost optimization, and now you're likely getting some combination of whether it's operating leverage through having optimized costs, but also the pricing power that you mentioned.

我想再深入聊聊这一点。

And I wanna get into that a little bit more.

如果他们去跟一些地方政府谈，下一轮续约时把价格上调4%到5%，而不是2%到3%，会不会有现成的替代方案让他们丢掉业务？

If they were to go to some of these municipalities and say, we're gonna push price 4%, 5% on the next renewal rather than a two or 3%, Is there a natural substitute that they could lose business to?

考虑到他们占据了80%的市场份额，定价权应该相当强才对。

It just seems like with 80% market share, the pricing power would be pretty significant here.

你怎么看这个问题？

What is your sense of that?

我先退一步，给你补充一点背景信息。

I'll just step back for a second and just give you a little bit of context.

当他们把网络系统卖给客户时，客户通常能在很长一段时间内享受无线电设备的优惠价格。

When they sell a network to a customer, the customer typically gets preferential pricing on radios for an extended period of time.

差不多五年到六年，他们都能以低于摩托罗拉标价的折扣购买设备。

Think about it as five to six years, they get a discount off of the list price for Motorola.

所以在头五六年里，客户一般挺满意，毕竟价格很划算。

So for the first five or six years, they are probably relatively happy because they're getting an attractive price.

但从长远来看，我认为摩托罗拉拥有非常强的定价能力。虽然无线电设备确实需要符合通用标准，但根据我们和客户的交流，客户非常不愿意在自己的网络里混用不同品牌的设备。

Longer term, I believe that Motorola has very, very strong pricing power because while it's true that radios need to be interoperable with the standard, the customer is very reluctant, based on our discussions with customers, to mix and match different radios across their network.

他们担心系统太复杂，怕出现兼容问题，同时也清楚摩托罗拉在研发更优质、更可靠的设备上投入了大量资源，远超竞争对手。

I think they fear complexity, they fear interoperability issues, and I think they're also very keenly aware of the amount of investment that Motorola puts into generating better, more reliable radios relative to the competitors.

摩托罗拉的品牌影响力非常强，所以他们的定价能力是实打实的。过去几年，他们的价格表现稳健，至少跟通胀持平，甚至更好。

I think Motorola's brand is very, very powerful, so they certainly have pricing power, and I think that has shown itself in the last couple of years where the business has generated solid pricing, at least at the rate of inflation, if not better.

而且我觉得摩托罗拉也很清楚，他们真正想的是和这些客户在其他领域扩大合作。

I think also Motorola is likely to be sensitive to the fact that they're very intent on growing in other areas with those customers.

所以他们特别重视和这些客户在软件业务上的共同发展。

So they're very intent on growing their software business with the same customers.

他们也非常致力于与这些客户拓展整体视频监控业务。

They're very intent on growing their overall video surveillance business with those customers.

所以这中间需要平衡：既要获得合理的定价，又要满足客户需求，同时寻找其他方式与客户共同成长。

So it's a balance between getting appropriate price on the business, but also satisfying the customer needs and finding other ways of growing with those customers.

这确实是个平衡问题，但毫无疑问，他们的市场地位非常强势，定价本可以成为更强有力的工具，但过去几年里，似乎并没有把这作为主要的增长策略。

So it is a balance, but I think unquestionably they have a very very strong position and pricing could be used as a stronger lever, but it is not evident that that has been one of their growth strategies over the last several years.

你之前提到过摩托罗拉销售团队的规模和实力。

You mentioned earlier in the conversation a bit about the breadth, power of that sales force that sits inside Motorola.

你能分享一下他们在销售策略或销售团队运作上有什么独特之处吗？

Can you share anything that's unique about go to market or what they're doing about that sales function?

我认为销售团队最独特的地方，就是它的规模之大。

I think the most unique aspect of the sales function is just the sheer size of their sales force.

目前，大约百分之七十的销售都是直接进行的。

Today, about 70% of sales take place on a direct basis.

显然，剩下的部分是通过渠道完成的。

Obviously, the remainder are indirect.

根据我们的估算，有成千上万的人专注于从陆地移动无线电到视频再到指挥中心软件这样相对细分的市场。

So by our estimates, that's thousands and thousands of people focused on what's a relatively niche market from LMR to video to command center software.

所以他们的市场定位非常集中。

So pretty focused markets.

摩托罗拉只专注几个渠道，但从我们的角度看，凭借其规模、专注度和覆盖面，他们完全主导了市场话语、沟通方式和销售节奏。

Motorola is focused on just a couple of channels, and from our vantage point, dominates the narrative, the communication, and the sales motion because of its size, its focus, and its breadth.

从销售角度看，把内部销售团队和渠道销售团队加在一起，视频业务如今是公司规模最大的销售部门。

From a sales perspective, when you combine the internal sales force with the indirect sales force, video today is the largest sales organization for the company.

这说明摩托罗拉正全力押注在增长最快的地方——视频和软件，而且他们在销售团队上的投入显然已经收到了回报。

So it goes to show you that Motorola is focused on growing where the growth is, which is in video and in software, and I think that the investment in the sales force is certainly paying dividends.

没错。

Absolutely.

对。

Yeah.

团队规模是一个很好的指标，能反映出公司增长重点在哪里。

A good indicator in terms of the team size and where that growth focus might be.

在增长方面，你提到他们通过多种方式在内部做了不少努力。

On the growth spectrum, you mentioned what they have been doing in house through a variety of different ways.

收购在其中能占多大比重呢？

How much could acquisitions play into this?

你提到资本配置框架时，感觉大部分资金都回流到股票回购了。

When you talked about capital allocation framework, it seems like a lot of the dollars are going back towards buybacks.

随着他们不断深耕客户市场，收购或并购会不会成为未来更常见的选择？

Are acquisitions or is M and A something that you could see happening more here as they think about saturating that customer more and more?

资本配置一直是摩托罗拉解决方案公司故事中非常关键且有趣的一环。

Capital allocation has been a very powerful and interesting part of the Motorola Solutions story.

如果我们回溯到2011到2012年分拆的时候，正如我们之前说的，当时股价估值很低，自由现金流收益率却非常高。

If we go back to the time of the split, twenty eleven, twenty twelve, as we talked about, the stock came out trading at a very, very low multiple, very high free cash flow yield.

那时候公司产生大量现金，但市场并没有真正认识到它的价值。

They were generating a ton of cash back then, and as we talked about, the business was not appreciated.

管理层非常敏锐，开始积极回购股票。

And management was sharp enough to begin aggressively repurchasing shares.

从2012年到2015年，大约80%的现金流都用于在公开市场回购股票。

So from 2012 to 2015, about 80% of cash flow was used towards the repurchase of shares in the open market.

随着股价上涨，以及公司开始关注相关领域，这一策略发生了变化。

And as the share price rose and as they began to look at adjacencies, that shifted.

从2016年到现在，大约一半的自由现金流被分配给了并购，而不是回购。

So from 2016 to today, about 50% of free cash flow was allocated towards m and a and away from repurchase.

过去几年，股票回购在现金流分配中的比例从约80%下降到了约40%。

And so share repurchase over the last several years has gone down from about 80% of cash flow allocation to about 40% of cash flow allocation.

我认为他们看到了进入视频和指挥中心软件这些相关领域的机会。

So I think that they saw the opportunity to enter these adjacencies, video and command center software.

他们发现了估值相对有吸引力的资产，于是通过并购进入了这些市场。

They saw assets which traded at relatively attractive multiples, and they entered that market using M and A.

是的。

Yeah.

你刚才提到的这些历史表现清楚表明，他们在资本运作上非常审慎且善于抓住机会，几乎把股价波动当作一种工具，用来转向更多并购。

The track record and what you laid out there certainly suggests they're very thoughtful and opportunistic with whatever they're doing with the capital and using the share price or devaluation almost as a currency to pivot to more M and A.

这一切的核心是客户群体吗？

Is the core in all of this the customer base?

我在想怎么总结摩托罗拉的策略。

I'm thinking about summarizing Motorola and what the strategy is.

我反复想到的都是，客户群体似乎是所有决策的出发点。

And what I keep coming back to is the customer base seems to be what everything is built around.

所以他们是针对这群特定客户在销售。

So it's selling into that specific customer.

任何周边业务或增长领域，都必须先考虑现有客户，而不是直接把现有产品推给完全不同的新客户群。

So any adjacencies or growth areas would really be taking the customer into consideration first before thinking about taking that product that they have existing and expanding to a new market with a totally different customer base.

我觉得你说得对。

I think that's right.

这其实回到了摩托罗拉的使命：为关键行业提供支持，尤其是安全和安保领域。

I think it goes back to Motorola's mission, which is to support customers in critical industries, particularly in safety and security industries.

他们在视频监控和911调度软件这些领域拓展，始终紧扣着这个核心使命。

They have entered their areas very much tied to that existing core mission with regard to video surveillance and nine one one center software.

正如你提到的，他们的渠道策略非常强势。

And as you referenced, it's a very strong channel strategy.

他们决定利用现有的销售团队，向现有客户推广更多产品，提供来自业内最可靠供应商之一的更可靠的产品。

They have decided to use their existing sales force to feed the existing customer base more products, more reliable products from one of the most reliable providers of critical products in the industry.

这似乎确实奏效了。

And that seems to have worked.

关于竞争或者替代产品进入市场的风险，目前情况如何？你觉得会不会有新的创新产品推出，或者出现某种变化，对摩托罗拉构成威胁？

On competition or the risk of substitute products coming into the market, Where does that stand, and how do you think about that risk of some either new innovative product being released or some switch happening that would be a threat to Motorola?

我可以把业务分成两块：陆地移动无线电业务，以及软件和视频业务。

I'll segment the business into the Land mobile radio business, and then we'll talk about software and video.

我们先从陆地移动无线电说起。

So we'll start with land mobile radio.

几年前，人们普遍认为蜂窝网络会对陆地移动无线电业务构成重大威胁。

Some years ago, there was a perception that the cellular networks would present a significant threat to the LMR business.

当时股市对此做出了反应。

The stock reacted to that.

公司刻意保持中立，不偏向任何一种结果，当时确实有不少担忧。

The company positions itself to try to be agnostic to that outcome, and there was a lot of concern.

但这个风险根本没真正出现过。

And that risk never really played out.

我觉得，至少在中期来看，LMR网络所面临的风险已经经受住了考验，实际上并没有显现出来。

The risk, I think, to the LMR network, at least for the intermediate term, was tested and didn't really show itself.

如果你想想其他可能提供解决方案的网络，比如卫星或者其他类型的网络，我根本看不到它们对LMR网络构成实质性的威胁。

If you think about other networks that could provide solutions, if you think of satellite or other types of networks, I just don't see them presenting a meaningful challenge to the LMR network.

所以从这个角度看，占业务七成的部分，我不认为存在重大的技术风险。

So from that perspective on three quarters of the business, I don't see a significant technology risk.

从竞争格局来说，没有任何迹象表明对手在这一领域加大投入，反而有充分理由相信，他们正想方设法退出这个相对较小的市场。

From a competitive position, there's no reason to believe that the competition is doubling down in this area, and there's every reason to believe they're looking for ways of exiting their relatively small positions in that business.

因此，在我看来，LMR业务并没有什么重大的风险。

So the LMR business doesn't have, in my mind, very significant risks to it.

关于LMR的技术问题，你的意思是，这主要是因为摩托罗拉提供的技术质量更高，还是说蜂窝网络根本对这个市场不感兴趣，也没怎么发力？

On the LMR point on technology, is your sense that this is just the quality of the technology related to what Motorola can offer using the lens of cellular networks, or is it that the cellular networks don't care as much about the opportunity and aren't making as much of a push?

能区分这两种情况吗？

Is there a way to differentiate those two dynamics?

当然可以。

Yeah.

完全可以。

There definitely is.

关键在于，摩托罗拉的客户非常看重对通信网络的自主控制权。

The differentiation is the Motorola customer really cares about having control over their communications network.

他们不希望因为别人在用网络，就得限制警察的通信。

They don't wanna have to throttle communications to police officers because somebody else is on the network.

他们需要完全掌握网络状态，确保网络高度可靠且具备冗余备份。

They wanna be able to have 100% visibility into their network and tremendous reliability and redundancy in the network.

顺便说一下，如果LMR网络中断，系统设计允许对讲机之间在15英里范围内直接通信。

Just to give you a sense, by the way, in the event that the LMR network goes down, the system is enabled in such a way to where the radios can communicate with other radios up to 15 miles away.

LMR网络内置了大量冗余技术，这些在蜂窝网络里是完全没有的。

So there's a lot of technology built into creating redundancy associated with the LMR network that just isn't there in the cellular network.

从移动网络的角度来看，LMR网络的用户数量太少了，还不足以值得投入大量资源去挑战这个市场。

I think from a cellular perspective, the number of users in an LMR network is just not significant enough to warrant the type of investment you might need to create a threat to that market.

你还需要开发新的硬件和终端设备来满足客户需求。

You also need to develop new hardware, new handsets to address the customer.

所以这个市场本身吸引力不大，而且进入成本很高。

So it's just not a particularly attractive place to enter, and it would be expensive.

因此，我觉得这根本算不上什么问题。

So I just don't particularly see that as being an issue.

在其他领域，我刚才打断了你，那竞争或潜在竞争的情况怎么样？

On the other segments, interrupted you there, what does the competition or threat of competition look like?

在软件业务这块，虽然占他们业务的比例不大，但正在增长，确实存在竞争。

In the software business, which is a small but growing part of their business, there certainly is competition.

我觉得他们在利用渠道和收购来的资源进入并拓展这个市场方面做得非常好。

I think that they've done a very good job of leveraging the channel, leveraging the assets that they've acquired to enter and grow in that market.

不过顺便说一下，据我了解，他们目前已经渗透了大约一半的911指挥中心。

But just to give you a sense, by the way, they've penetrated, I believe, about 50% of nine one one command centers today.

他们在进入市场并取得进展方面做得不错。

So they've done a good job of entering and gaining traction.

他们发现，这些指挥中心的技术投入相对较低，设备也十分陈旧，因此认为这里长期来看有不小的机会。

What they found is that the technology investment in these command centers is relatively low and the technology there is very dated, so they believe there's a long term opportunity there.

但这个领域确实还有其他竞争者，毫无疑问，这是一个竞争激烈的行业。

But there are definitely others that are in that space, and so without a doubt, it's a competitive industry.

我认为现有企业确实拥有稳固的市场地位。

I think that incumbents certainly have a defensible position.

这是一个吸引人的市场，自然会引来不少竞争者。

It's an attractive market that attracts others.

在视频业务方面，他们在北美是领先的供应商，市场地位相当稳固。

In the video business, they are the leading provider in North America, and so they have a relatively strong position.

虽然有竞争，但除了我们之前提到的渠道优势，他们的另一个优势是，多年来大多数竞争对手都来自美国以外，而如今政府机构都不太愿意继续从美国以外采购技术。

There is competition, but I think that what gives them an advantage aside from the channel which we've talked about is the fact that most of the competition has come from outside The United States for a number of years, and government agencies today are loath to continue to acquire their technology from outside The United States.

我相信这一趋势会持续下去，这对摩托罗拉来说是个巨大的优势。

And I believe that trend will continue to be persistent and will be a great benefit to Motorola.

他们很幸运，在2018年和2019年完成了收购，而到了2020年，全球趋势开始向他们这边倾斜，尤其是在如何看待从美国以外采购技术这个问题上。

They're fortunate to make their acquisition, believe, in 2018 and 2019, and then, of course, the world moved in their direction in 2020 with regard to, I guess, the way people view acquiring technology from outside The United States.

我认为这个趋势会持续下去，而且他们在软件方面的创新能力，以及利用人工智能在视频领域开发新功能，都让他们在竞争中占据了优势。

And so I believe that trend will be persistent, and I think that their ability to innovate on the software side and develop new capabilities using AI to identify and innovate in the video side of their business gives them an advantage in terms of competition.

在最看好的情况下，这种增长是来自其他业务板块的突破性进展，还是说只是他们持续做好自己擅长的事，缓慢但稳定地积累增长？

And in the major bull case, is this a name where there is a growth inflection from something happening in one of those other segments, Or is the bull case that they continue to do what they've been doing well and compounding that growth slowly over time?

当你想到那些对这只股票特别看好、充满热情的人时，你觉得他们最看重的是哪一点？

Is there something that stands out when you think about people who are excited about this stock that you would bucket?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为看多的理由第一条，就是他们执行得极其出色，而且一直非常稳定，表现得特别强劲。

I think that the bull case is, number one, remarkably strong execution that has been predictable and really, really strong.

顺便说一下，虽然他们做了这么多收购，但这项业务的资本回报率依然接近30%。

By the way, just to give you a sense, despite the fact that they've done all of these acquisitions, the return on capital employed for this business is nearly 30%.

过去几年，他们投入了大量资金进入两个你原本不会觉得能有高回报的领域——视频监控和软件业务，而搭建软件平台通常需要巨额前期投入。

So they've spent a lot of money the last couple of years entering two businesses that you wouldn't think that video surveillance would be a particularly high return business, and building a software business can require a significant upfront investment.

但即便如此，他们的资本回报率还是接近30%。

Yet despite that, the return on capital employed is close to 30%.

这说明管理层的决策质量很高，善于运营公司并从收购中创造利润。

So I think that speaks to the quality of the decision making by the management team, their ability to manage and to generate profits from the company and from the acquisitions.

这家公司管理和资本配置的水平都非常出色。

So it's been a very well managed business and capital allocation strategy.

说到大家关注的点，我认为看多的理由主要有两个：一是这家公司持续稳定的执行力，二是收入结构持续向增长更快的业务倾斜，尤其是EMS软件和视频监控领域——无论是硬件还是软件，增长都保持在两位数以上，而且利润非常丰厚。

With regard to what people are thinking about, I think the bull case is focused on, one, continued execution and predictability from this business, and number two, a continued mixing upward of the revenues toward faster growing businesses with regard to EMS software and video surveillance, both on the hardware side and on the software side, where the growth remains very, very strong into the double digits, and the businesses are very, very profitable.

因此，摩托罗拉有机会持续提升整体增长速度，随着规模扩大进一步提高盈利能力，同时继续产生大量自由现金流。

So Motorola has the opportunity to continue to enhance its overall growth rate, improve its profitability as it gets bigger, and continue to generate a great deal of free cash flow.

举个例子，他们大约能把20%的营收转化为自由现金流，这相当有吸引力。

So just to give you a sense, they convert about 20% of revenue into free cash flow, and that's pretty attractive.

所以他们手头有充足的自由现金流可以继续投入。

So they have a lot of free cash flow to continue to reinvest.

看多的一个关键点在于，管理层能找到优质的新方向来再投资，推动这家已经拥有庞大护城河和稳定现金流的业务持续复利增长。

And part of the bull case is that the management team will find great new places to reinvest free cash flow and drive the continued compounding of this highly recurring large moat business that they operate today.

在你看来，摩托罗拉会是其他公司感兴趣的收购目标吗？

In your mind, would Motorola be an interesting target for another business?

他们规模不小。

They're sizable.

他们有一条非常独特的持续性收入流。

They have this really interesting recurring revenue stream.

正如你提到的，他们的现金流情况也很有看点。

As you mentioned, cash flow dynamics are interesting.

先不谈估值，毕竟最终还是看价格，但历史上有没有公司认真考虑过收购他们？

Putting the valuation aside for a moment, because ultimately it would come down to to cost, but has it historically been looked at as a potential acquisition target for any businesses?

有意思的是，2015到2016年间，曾有传言说几家买家在关注这家公司。

Interestingly, back in 2015, 2016, there were rumors that the company was being looked at by a handful of acquirers.

但问题一直在于，该拿什么来对标这个业务？

I think that the issue was always, what do we comp this business to?

长期来看，LMR的未来到底会是什么样子？

How do we determine what the future of LMR will look like over the long term?

所以对收购方来说，这个业务一直很难让人放心，因为他们根本找不到类似的公司来参照评估。

And so it was always kind of this difficult business for acquirers to get comfortable with because they just naturally couldn't find another cop to give them comfort in.

我觉得私募股权收购倒是挺合适的，但不知为什么，他们一直没出手。

So I think it always made sense for private equity to acquire, but for whatever reason, they didn't.

如今，这家公司的业务明显更加多元化了，不再那么依赖LMR，而是更多转向了视频监控和软件这些当下市场更看好的领域。

Today, certainly, it's becoming more diversified business, less focused on LMR and more focused on areas that the market finds more attractive today, video surveillance and software.

但毫无疑问，这确实是个非常有吸引力的业务。

But certainly, it's I mean, it's a very attractive business.

未来很可能会保持个位数中较高的增速。

They're gonna grow high single digits, most likely.

能产生大量的自由现金流。

Gonna generate a lot of free cash flow.

护城河非常非常深，所以对收购方来说，这确实是个好生意，但你再想想，谁会是LMR、视频监控和软件这类业务的天然买家？除了私募股权，还真想不出别的合适人选。

The moat is very, very strong, so certainly it's an attractive business for acquirers, but you go back to who is a natural acquirer for an LMR, video surveillance and software business, you don't think of somebody that would be a natural acquirer outside of private equity.

正如你提到的，现在的估值倍数确实让收购显得有点难 justify，但也不是完全没可能。

As you implied, the multiple today makes it, I think, difficult to justify, but not insurmountable.