PriceSmart：中美洲的 Costco——[商业拆解，第 244 集]

你看到的是本地产品和美国货的混合。

And you're seeing a mix of local combined with US stuff.

他们还发现，可以把哥斯达黎加和巴拿马卖得不错的东西，带到哥伦比亚来。

The other thing they're learning is they're actually taking stuff that they're finding sold, say, in Costa Rica and Panama and bringing it to Colombia.

我们总以为拉丁美洲是个整体，但每个国家的口味偏好都不一样，他们正在找到那些真正受欢迎的商品。

We think of Latin America as one entity, but if you go to each economy, there's a different taste vibe, and they're finding stuff which is working well.

这又让我想起之前说的例子——凯西他们发现，德克萨斯和美国南部对辣味食品的偏好，正逐渐被带到更靠北的寒冷地区，那里的人们也开始接受。

Which again, not to go back to our previous one, but the example Casey's are discovering is the interest in spicy foods they're learning from their Texas and Southern states and bringing it further up north closer to the colder borders where people are discovering.

真正聪明的零售商特别擅长找出能形成差异化的商品，同时把成本控制在合理范围内。

And so really smart retailers are very good at finding the SKUs that can differentiate and keep that cost within their system.

每一点这样的努力，都能提升他们的利润率。

Every little bit they're doing on that side is margin accretive.

是的。

Yeah.

你跟阿根廷人和智利人说他们差不多，他们能跟你争上半天。

Tell an Argentinian and a Chilean that they're similar, and they'll argue with you for a long time.

但没错，我觉得从跨地域的角度来看，这种做法是说得通的。

But, yes, I think it makes sense in terms of what does translate across geographical lines.

关于扩张这一点，我感受到的是，确实存在机会。

And on the point about expansion, the impression that I'm getting is that, yes, there is an opportunity.

有些市场他们未来可以进入，但关键是要谨慎规划，别在物流体系还没理顺之前就盲目扩张。

There are markets that over time they can enter into, but it is very much about them being thoughtful and calculated and not overexpanding too quickly before they have the logistical thing figured out.

我们经常提到的一个关键点是，如果他们能拥有土地和物业，这一点我们以前在物流方面也见过。

One of the key things we talk about is if they can own the land and the property, and we've seen this before going back to logistics.

如果你能掌控整个运营，虽然初期资产负担会重一点。

If you're in control of that operation, yes, it's slightly asset heavier.

但一旦做到这一点，你的零售业务就会随着时间推移，逐步优化它的布局。

But once you can do that, the fact is your retail operation will evolve over time in terms of how that's set up.

比如现在，他们还是更侧重全渠道模式，有自己的电商平台。

So example right now is they are still doing more on the omnichannel side, which they have an e commerce platform.

在海外，我们看到的成功案例大多都是这样。

Most of the time, we've seen the success outside The US.

在美国，我们早就习惯了东西直接送货上门。

Here in The US, we're used to getting a lot of stuff delivered.

其实，出了大城市，我们正看到一种有趣的现象，跟欧洲之前的情况类似：下单后，开车回家的路上顺路去取货，也就是自提模式。

Actually, if you go outside of the main city areas, we're seeing this interesting thing like we saw in Europe, which is the idea of ordering and then pick it up on your way home as you drive home, pick and collect.

中美洲那边也在做类似的事。

That's the same thing we're seeing in Central America.

他们确实有在这么做，但利用的是店铺的一部分空间——因为他们 owns 这个店，可以重新改造，单独划出一块区域当配送中心，还不影响正常营业。

They're doing some of that, but they're using part of the store, which they now can remodel because they own it and they run it as a distribution where they set that up separately without impacting.

如果你是租的店，那就得去跟房东商量。

If you're leasing that, you then have to speak to the owner.

我能这么做吗？

Can I do this?

我不能这么做吗？

Can I do not?

所以，掌控物流这个环节，未来会成为关键的竞争优势。

So that controlling of the logistic backdrop is actually a key moat going forward.

这让他们在店铺布局和管理上有更多灵活的选择，再加上有些地方停车方便、安全，还有围栏保护，顾客自然更安心。

And it gives them lots of optionality in store as to how they do layouts and control of that, coupled with the fact that you, as a customer, there are certain markets where there's parking, it's safe, there's a security perimeter around it.

有了这些保障，你更愿意带家人一起去购物。

You're more than willing to bring your family then to go shopping.

你要是带家人去，猜怎么着？

If you bring family, guess what?

孩子们肯定会想买点东西。

The kids are going to want to go buy this.

所以，提供方便、安全、整洁、空调环境，在那些很难做到这些的地方，会成为很大的吸引力。

So making it convenient, safe, tidy, clean, air conditioned environment can be a big driver in markets where a lot of that is actually harder to come by.

我们在这儿觉得这再平常不过了。

We take it from normal here.

还有选址也很关键，最好靠近主干道，方便人们回家路上顺道取货，同时也利于从港口运货进来。

And then access, the locations are important, that you tend to be near major roadways so people can go home, head off, but it also plays into your distribution that you can get that in from the port coming in.

比如哥伦比亚，你要是去过那儿就会知道，那地方山多路陡。

So a country like Colombia, if you ever travel there, is very mountainous.

那里的地理条件要困难得多。

The geography is very much harder.

所以在这方面挑得仔细一点是非常合理的。

So being particularly picky around that makes a lot of sense.

他们对产权这类问题也非常重视。

They're also very much aware of things like property rights.

因此，有些经济体目前他们正在主动回避。

So there would be certain economies that naturally right now they're stepping back from.

因为你一旦投了钱，尤其是买了实体资产，就得确保万一出法律问题，还能有办法拿回自己的权益。

Because once you invest money, particularly if you're going in ownership of hard assets, you want to make sure that if there is any legal issues, there is some sort of right to coming back again.

但我提到的一个有趣经济体是委内瑞拉。

But one interesting economy I mentioned is Venezuela.

委内瑞拉现在政局动荡，反而引起了很多人关注。

Venezuela, with all the political actions going on right now, is sparking a lot of interest.

它人口众多，如果算上那些已经离开但未来可能回来的人，过去可是跟哥伦比亚接壤、非常有活力的富裕经济体。

It's a large population country, which if you include the people who've left and would eventually maybe come back, used to be a very dynamic and rich economy right next to the border with Colombia.

这种经济环境，配上合适的政局背景，他们可能会考虑。

That would be the kind of economy with the right political backdrop that they maybe would look at.

但他们现在什么都没说，不过这种做法跟他们的整体策略很吻合，而且那里也没有仓储式超市系统。

But they're not saying anything right now, but makes a natural kind of feel with what they're doing, and there is no club store system there either.

智利他们曾经关注过一段时间。

Chile, they were looking at for a while.

他们从不透露具体细节，但我感觉过去五年他们一直在跟智利这边打交道。

They never give you the exact details, but I think they've been working with the Chile thing for the last five years.

关键是派人下去，实地了解情况。

And really, it's getting to know they'll send people down, learn.

得熟悉当地的监管机构。

They'll get to know the regulator.

他们想找的是一个监管透明、能直接沟通、规则清晰的环境，能选到合适的地点，先开五到十家店，建个配送中心，等站稳脚跟，再招聘并培训本地管理团队。

And what they're looking for is a regulatory environment where there's someone they can actually speak to and understand the rules, that it is a rules based economy, the ability to find the right locations, and then do work on get me to the first five, ten stores, put a DC in, and once I'm there, hire and teach local management.

这其实回到了索尔·普赖斯最初的思路。

This comes back to Sol Price original.

他特别推崇的一点，就是大量保留并培养员工，让他们逐步成长为管理者。

One of the things he was a big fan of is this idea of retaining and training a lot of employees and bringing them up through management as well.

这些会员制商店里，员工和老板之间的关系特别紧密。

And it's very strong at these club stores in terms of the relationship between the employees and the ownership is extremely strong.

别忘了，在这些市场里，这些工作待遇好、很稳定，还附带很多福利，比如养老金、医疗保险等等，而且公司也特别注重从内部提拔管理层。

Keep in mind, in these markets, these are good jobs, very stable, and bring many benefits with them, including things like pensions, healthcare coverage, and so forth, and driving that to bring management up and through.

还有一个良性循环：员工的家人也成了顾客，因为这种忠诚度是相互的。

And then there is a symbiotic effect, which is the families of all the employees become customers because there is this loyalty factor as well.

所以这套模式非常有效。

So it works very well.

在中美洲，他们做得相当不错。

In Central America, they've done very well.

还有一点，回到之前说的差异，就是外汇方面的问题。

The only other thing, you go back to the difference as well, is dealing on the FX side.

在一些他们进入的经济体里，他们实际上很难把现金拿出去。

There are some economies they're in where they actually have some inability to get their cash.

他们做得太好了，所以总想把赚的钱以美元形式汇回总部。

They're doing so well, they like to bring the cash back in dollars back to the headquarters.

像特立尼达这样的地方，外汇管制挺严的，根本换不到足够的美元。

So a place like Trinidad has some FX gates in the sense that you can't find enough dollars to convert the local currency.

所以这里头得有点讲究：该留的留着，就在当地运营，别往里头塞太多美元，但生意本身利润很高，势头也特别好。

So again, bit of savviness here, which is keep what you need to there, run it from there, and then try not to put too many dollars in, but your business is very profitable and doing very well.

对这么一家公司来说，运营起来确实复杂得多。

So for the company of its size, it does seem a lot complex.

能在这种充满波动的环境下做到这一步，反而让我更确信，随着规模扩大，这会是一个越来越成功的案例。

The fact that they're being able to do this in this type of environment with that added volatility and be successful does give me even more confidence that this is gonna be a good success story going over time as they get larger.

没错。

Absolutely.

说到收入和利润的波动，当你面对那些宏观环境更不稳定的国家，跟单纯在美国运营不一样，这种波动过去是怎样的趋势？

In terms of the revenue earnings volatility, as you deal with countries that there's just more underlying macro volatility sometimes and different dynamics than just pure US exposure, How has that trended historically?

周期里有没有大的起伏？宏观因素的影响有多大？

Are there major swings in cycles and how much macro sensitivity exists?

当然，从区域分布的角度来看，确实有一定的分散性。

Obviously, taking into account there's some diversification just in terms of regional exposure.

没错。

Exactly.

对。

Yeah.

你说到点子上了。

I think you're hitting the nail on the head there.

现在这家公司规模不小，在这十几个市场运营，年收入五百亿美元，就算其中一个市场出现点波动，其他市场也完全能扛得住。

Right now, the scale of the company, given that it's in these 12 odd markets, 5,000,000,000 of revenues, most of it, if you have one market go through a bit of volatility, is more than managed by all the others.

哥伦比亚挺有意思，它是单个市场中规模最大的。

Colombia is interesting because it is the largest in terms of single footprint.

就像我之前说的，根据我对GDP、中产和高消费群体规模的分析，这个市场完全有能力支撑起25家门店。

Like I mentioned, this is a market where I think based on the analysis I've done of GDP, the addressable market in terms of middle class and upper spending, and the ability to broaden across a large economy could easily be by itself 25 stores.

这还可能再翻一倍。

So that can more than double.

而在集团内部，规模还会更大。

Then within the group, it gets bigger.

那个市场实际上可能会更不稳定一些。

That one actually then could be a bit more volatile.

但在智利这样的地方，相对没那么波动，反而能起到对冲作用，我觉得他们就是这么考虑的。

But in a place like Chile, which actually is less volatile relative, could offset that, which I think is how they're thinking about it.

到目前为止，他们通常能应对得不错，偶尔可能有一两个季度会出现小幅波动。

So far, they've generally managed that there'll be maybe one or two quarters where you see a bit of a wobble.

但整年来看，整体增长其实相当稳定。

But over the course of the year, the actual compounding is pretty relatively stable.

我觉得部分原因在于，他们瞄准的是消费群体中相对更稳定的一部分，这些人本来就有足够的财富，不管怎样都会去购物。

Part of that, I think, is that they are targeting a less volatile part of the consumer complex who generally has a wealth that is going to go and shop anyway.

别忘了，这并不是他们唯一购物的地方。

Remember, we're talking about this isn't the only place they'll shop.

其他很多东西，他们还是会去别的超市买，但这里会是他们最主要的购物选择。

For a lot of other things, they're going to go to other supermarkets, but this is going to be their core go to.

而这种模式最妙的地方在于，目前他们运营利润的最大来源，差不多占了四成，就是会员的预付费用。

And then the beauty of this is the single biggest driver of operating earnings right now, about 40% of their operating earnings, come from the upfront payment of the membership.

所以到了年初，只要你一办会员，就已经锁定了将近四成的收入。

So already at the beginning of the year, as you subscribe, you already have locked in about 40% of your earnings.

这样在谈全年的其他业务时，心里就有底多了。

That's a great visibility to have as you're negotiating the rest of the year.

我认为，利润真正的驱动力，不只是新会员在稳步增长，更重要的是让现有会员升级到更高档的套餐。

The real driver, I think, of the earnings continues to be this idea of not just recruiting new members, which is growing quite nicely, but getting members to move up to the higher tier.

目前，他们的会员里，差不多有不到两成是年费90美元的白金卡用户，其余的都是45美元的。

Right now, to give you a mix, just under 20% of their membership base is the higher paying $90 what they call the platinum card, and then the rest is the 45.

但这个比例已经从五年前的12%上升了不少。

But that has grown from 12% just like five years ago.

他们现在更多是在讲清楚这个升级的好处，而现金返还本身就能让这个升级回本。

And what they're doing there is more and more explaining the benefits of this, and it self pays for itself with the cashback.

除了额外的服务，你还能额外拿到2%到3%的现金返还。

There's about a 2% or 3% cashback you get on top of the added benefits you get.

不过，真正让他们大受欢迎的是，他们现在成了中小企业的首选供应商，比如小餐馆、小型连锁酒店，这些客户都在寻找高品质的产品，专门针对美国游客或喜欢西方标准的人群。

Where this is really resonating, though, is they're becoming a go to supplier for small and medium enterprises, think little restaurants, small hotel chains, who are looking for that quality, really targeting American tourists or people who like a Western style standard.

他们从欧洲引进商品，但主要还是美国风格的零食和食品，作为他们产品组合的一部分。

They're bringing stuff from Europe, but mostly American type snacks or food products as part of that offer they're getting.

这也在推动他们进一步拓展的另一个领域。

And that's driving another area where they're leaning into more as well.

目前他们的营收达到50亿美元，我认为在如此多元的客户基础上，这完全在可控范围内。

So right now, 5,000,000,000 revenues, I think it's very manageable across the diverse base.

希望五年后我们再聊这个话题时，他们的营收已经突破100亿美元了。

Hopefully, we're having this conversation five years from now, there'll be 10,000,000,015 billion plus.

等他们达到这个规模，我觉得就真的可以了。

Then I think once we get to that scale, it could be.

但现阶段，营收水平完全可控，他们已经做得非常出色了。

But right now, it is manageable, they've done very well in this.

唯一的问题就是这笔被锁定的资金。

The only thing has been this trapped cash issue.

这确实是个成本很高的问题。

It's a high cost problem to have.

你们在市场上产生了太多现金，想把它抽出来，但他们处理得挺妥当的。

You're producing way too much cash in the market you wanna get out, but they're managing it in a good fashion.

在毛利率的稳定性和整体策略或对毛利的敏感度上，情况也类似吗？

Is it a similar story in terms of the gross margin stability and general approach or sensitivity on margins?

你提到过一些汇兑因素和他们的应对方式，但跟美国的会员制仓储超市相比，你觉得怎么样？

You mentioned some of the FX dynamics and how they approach these things, but how would you compare it to just The US price clubs?

所以他们在尽量把这个数字做到最好。

So they're trying to put in as best they can at that number.

他们想把物流全盘掌控起来——从配送中心一直到送到各家门店。控制得越多，就越能发挥大宗采购的优势，再加上他们逐渐成了很多供应商的重要本地客户，而这些供应商本来主要服务中小企业，这也能帮他们拿到更好的价格。

So the idea of owning the logistics in terms of distribution center all the way down to delivering to your local actual store, The more they control of that, the more they can, A, as a bulk buyer, get the benefits of that, coupled with the fact that they start to become a sizable local customer for a lot of their suppliers who generally are dealing with a lot of SMEs, which probably gives them some price.

他们明确表示，并不是一味追求最低价。

I mean, they do emphasize they're not out there to get the lowest price possible.

他们真正想做的，是和本地农户合作。

They really want to work with the local farmers.

他们想和本地渔民合作，帮助他们扩大规模。

They want to work with the local fishermen, get you to scale.

所以这家公司，如果你是个纯粹的资本主义者，可能会觉得它赚得太少——但它故意控制利润，为的是让供应链长期稳定，能和公司一起成长，提供高品质的产品，不是追求最高利润率，而是给顾客物有所值的体验，这和市场上的其他做法很不一样。

And so this is a company which I think actually, if you were to be a full on capitalist, probably under earns specifically to ensure that its supply chain is a sustainable long term that can grow with them over time, to bring a good quality product where they're not looking to get the best margin possible, just to deliver a product for good value for money for their customer, relative to what they see, obviously, in terms of the market out there.

这种思路更注重长远可持续发展，而不是短视的捞一笔就走，拼命赚钱。

But understanding that is a more long term sustainable as opposed to just going for a hit and run, let's make as much money as we can.

而这，又回到了它的核心基因。

And that, again, comes back to this DNA.

如果你有机会读那本书，或者看看书评，就会发现索尔·普赖斯非常重视成为社区的好成员。

If you get the chance to read the book or the reviews of the book, Sol Price is also very much driven by being a good member of the community.

这和他们对外的慈善活动一脉相承，不只是捐钱给慈善机构，更包括推动本地社区建设。

And that ties in with the philanthropy they do outside of this, but not just in dealing with charities, but developing local areas.

住在圣地亚哥的人可能更了解他，因为他实实在在参与了圣地亚哥市中心的重建，那里曾经因军工产业起落而衰败，他帮助把它改造成更适合居住、更开放、更有活力的社区空间。

So those people who live in San Diego probably know him better because he actually has been instrumental in redeveloping the downtown area of San Diego, which had been up and down through industrial and the spending or all of the Department of Defense, to make that a nicer place to live, but also open to the community and the social side.

他们还特别关注儿童群体。

And they do a lot with kids.

这真是个令人心酸的故事。

It's a very sad story.

他的孙子英年早逝。

His grandson died young.

这件事让他意识到，社会上有一部分人根本得不到应有的医疗保障。

It affected him in the sense that he felt that there was a part of society which didn't have access to the right kind of health care.

更重要的是，你善待社区，社区也会反过来支持你。

But on top of that, just embracing if you do well for your community, community will do well for you as well.

这些故事，其实我们常常都忘了。

And again, these are the stories which I think we often forget about.

我在宾夕法尼亚州的赫尔希认识一个人，听说还有一部电影要拍他的故事。

I've got a guy down in Hershey, Pennsylvania, I think there's a movie coming out actually, who talks about that story.

这些是有社会责任感的商人，他们明白，在危机时刻或困难时期，只有扎根本地社区，才能赢得长久的支持。

These are the do good capitalists who realize in times of crisis or when times are tough, invest with your local community, and they'll stick with you through thick and thin.

这又回到了现代社会发展背后的本质问题。

And again, this comes back to the kind of nature of what's going on in a more modern society.

是的。

Yeah.

成为社区里不可或缺的一部分，代表社区的某种精神。

Become staples of that community and represent something inside of it.

你提到了一些关于房地产和资本支出的决策，还有更高层面上的资本配置考量。

You've touched on some of the decision making around real estate and CapEx and just high level what would factor into capital allocation decisions.

但他们在股息和股票回购、再投资业务方面，历史上表现如何？

But what has been their historical track record of doing anything as it relates to dividends and buybacks, reinvesting in the business?

当然，他们手头可能有些资金被锁在某些地方，但如你所说，这是个好问题。

Obviously, they have some cash that might be trapped in certain spots, but a good problem, as you mentioned.

他们在资本配置上的历史表现怎么样？

What's been the historical track record around capital allocation?

当他们在某个市场扩大规模时，初期的资本回报率通常处于较低水平。

When they go into scale in a market, they initially the returns on capital tend to be at the lower end of the range.

一般来说，门店的回本周期很短，两三年内就能实现盈利。

Generally, the store paybacks are pretty quick, so the store can become profitable within two or three years.

举个例子，如果你想想现在去的传统好市多，他们现在的店大概只有那些大店的五分之一大小。

So to give you an idea of the size of the store, if you think about a traditional Costco you go into today, they're about one fifth the size, the larger ones.

店面小多了，但在当地已经算挺大的了。

So a lot smaller box, but big for where they are locally.

如果这些店旁边再建个配送中心，通常得再花个两三年才能回本。

Those stores, if they add in a distribution center around it, very often will take maybe an extra couple of years to bring back the returns.

但一旦开到五家店，当地市场就会出现规模聚集效应。

But once they get to five stores, there's a densification effect in the local market.

这时候，运营效率就开始明显提升了。

You then start to see operating leverage improvement.

他们设计配送中心时，就预留了快速扩建的空间。

And they design the distribution center with the ability to expand it fairly quickly.

这种模式我见过不少，比如凯西超市，还有沃尔玛和好市多都是这样。

Again, I've seen this playbook with whether it be Casey's or certainly Walmart or Costco as well.

关键在于他们拥有门店土地或建筑本身，这样就能预留足够的弹性空间，方便后续调整。

This is where the key ownership of the store land or the actual store box is important because they build in redundant flexibility, which can allow them.

这就是为什么他们已经确认正在筹备智利市场，对你们的观众来说，如果未来几年想关注这个动态，智利会是个很值得关注的地方。

This is why they've confirmed they're working on Chile, but Chile will be interesting for your viewers if they want to follow this going in the next couple of years.

一旦他们公布了选址，接下来头两年的焦点会放在配送中心能多快建成这些问题上。

Once they announce the location at the start of that, the discussion in the first two years will be how quickly they get the DC open and so forth.

不过总的来说，这家公司在这一段受控扩张期内，年均新增三到四家门店，带动整体营收增长。

Generally, you're looking at a business, though, where the top line growth through this controlled period of time, and on average, they're adding between three to four stores per annum across the network.

如果门店开在密度更高的区域，盈利速度通常会快得多。

If that store is in a more densified area, it probably kicks in a lot quicker.

但平均来看，他们还是会把门店分散布局，一个市场开一家，另一个市场再开一家。

But on average, they're spreading these around, so there'll be one store in one market, one store in another.

这个数字是基于现有的61家门店算出来的。

This is off a base of 61.

所以这已经带来了相当可观的底层增长。

So that gives you some underlying growth.

除此之外，他们的核心门店客流量也在以中个位数的年增长率稳步提升。

Then on top of that, they're growing the core same store customer as a mid single digit growth rate coming in.

现在，这五分之一的顾客正在转向更高的白金消费级别。

That customer, one in five of them is converting right now to the increased platinum spending.

所以，一方面客户结构在优化，业务规模在扩大，单店的面积也在增加。

So you've got these drivers in terms of the mix is improving while it's growing, and the actual store size is growing as well.

另外，当他们在每个市场中的配送中心达到一定规模后，运营效率就会显著提升。

And then the operating leverage once they get above a certain level in each market from the DC side.

目前这家公司的预计营收是55亿美元，EBITDA约3.5亿美元，EBIT大约2.5亿美元。

This So is a business right now which is doing $5,500,000,000 of revenues forecast, about $350,000,000 of EBITDA, and about $250,000,000 of EBIT.

数据相当稳定。

Pretty consistent.

就像我之前说的，EBIT部分中将近四成是会员费的预付款。

And like I mentioned, close to 40% of that on the EBIT side is money paid upfront in terms of the membership.

收入前景清晰，转化能力也很强。

So good visibility, the ability to turn it.

现金流表现相当不错。

Cash flow generation is fairly decent.

现金转化率已经接近百分之九十以上。

Cash conversion is running at close to 90 plus percent.

别忘了，这主要是食品。

Keep in mind, this is mostly food.

没错，是日用品，但周转特别快。

Yes, it's general merchandise, but it's pretty quick turnover merchandise.

所以这个现金转化率非常可观，任何零售商都会羡慕。

So the cash conversion rate is very attractive like any retailer would want to be.

而且随着规模扩大，他们的供应商账期也越来越好。

And again, their supplier terms tend to be very good as well as they get bigger.

但他们并不滥用这个优势。

They don't lean into that.

这点我很欣赏。

I like that.

就像我说的，他们要是想多赚钱，简直轻而易举。

Like I said, these guys could print more money if they want to do.

他们故意选择不这么做，因为他们看重的是与供应商共同长期发展的长远利益。

They deliberately decide not to because they see the long term benefit of growing their business with their suppliers.

要想做大做强，就得有个靠得住的供应商，大家一起成长。

To get bigger, you need a supplier that you can rely on, and they grow together.

这种协同关系非常紧密，我们之前跟一些供应商聊过，他们都对这家公司评价极高。

The alignment here is very And we've done some work speaking to some suppliers, speak extremely highly of this.

这种模式非常强大。

It's very powerful.

这就是为什么增长空间这么大——如果我们看人口基数，刚才提到的核心付费用户大约有250万。

And this is why the runway, if we look at both the population So population areas, so right now I mentioned about 2,500,000 core paying subscribers.

而我们的潜在市场人口大约是7000万。

This is our common population area, which is about 70,000,000.

如果想想这些市场里中产和高收入群体的实际规模，特别是像智利这样的市场一旦加入，未来他们的潜在客户数量将是现在的数倍，而且这些客户更可能愿意支付更高的费用。

So if you think about the tangible size of the middle and upper class in those markets, particularly if we get a place like Chile coming on board, the number of customers they could get to is a multiple of that over time, coupled with the fact that's more likely a higher paying one as well.

这种客户结构的组合。

So that mix of that customer.

如果我们从二百五十万增长到五百万、六百万，十年内其中一半可能会成为高付费用户。

If we go from 2,500,000 to 5,000,000, 6,000,000, half of those could be the higher end paying within a decade or so.

这样长期来看，你的盈利增长会非常可观。

And that's going give you a very nice earnings growth over time.

目前我们的增长率已经是两位数了，大概在百分之十一到十二左右。

We're looking at double digit here right now, about 11%, 12%.

股息现在还比较低。

Dividend is a bit smaller right now.

收益率不高，大概就百分之一出头。

The yield is not big, it's about one one something percent.

资产负债表非常健康。

The balance sheet is pretty much undelivered.

他们几乎没什么负债，或者根本就没有。

They virtually carry little, if any, debt.

更重要的是，未来要继续投入业务发展。

And it's really more about investing in the business going forward.

所以我觉得这家公司有着非常稳健的可持续增长路径，前提是主要大国不会出现大的宏观动荡，正因如此，他们在拓展大市场时格外谨慎。

And this is why I think this is a company, again, you have a very nice path to sustainable growth, assuming none of the bigger countries hit any sort of large macro dislocation, which is why I think they're being very careful in terms of the larger markets they're going to.

他们在多元化布局方面做得非常好。

They've been very good in terms of the diversification.

谁都不想经历艰难时期。

You never want to go through a tough time.

但好消息是，如果应对得当，反而能强化这个模式。

The good news is if you navigate it well, it reinforces the model.

飓风对加勒比地区影响很大。

Hurricanes impact a lot of The Caribbean.

他们设计的门店都是抗飓风的。

They've designed their stores to be hurricane proofed.

每次飓风过后，他们的市场份额反而上升，因为大家发现，这家店居然还开着，24小时营业。

Each time, it gives them actually more share because people come to recognize, That guy's still open 20 fourseven.

我可以去那儿。

I can go there.

他们还协助应对当地突发状况，因此赢得了大量好感。

They help out with the local emergencies, but they really garner a lot of goodwill.

同样的情况，我觉得在南美一些地方也会出现，他们会通过会员制模式推广这种天天低价的经营理念。

The same, I think, we'll see in places in South America where they will start to deliver this idea of a great everyday low price type offer through this idea of the club membership.

当你在一个经济体里跟人说45美元，这可不是小数目。

And when you go into an economy and saying to someone, dollars 45, that's a lot of money.

但你想想，你用这笔钱能换来什么。

Look what you get for it, by way.

你不仅能获得基本医疗，还能为孩子和家人做健康检查，全包含在这笔费用里。

You get healthcare, basic healthcare, but healthcare checks for your kids and family in that price.

其实你本来就要花这笔钱。

You would pay that already.

而且别忘了，你还能以折扣价进去购物。

And by the way, you also get to come in and shop at a discount.

这非常有吸引力，而传播这种理念也相当顺利。

That's pretty powerful, and getting the word out there is pretty good.

我想补充一点，有人问过电子商务会带来什么影响。

One thing I would add, people have asked about what about the impact from e commerce.

这些市场里其实有不少非常精明的电商玩家。

There are some very smart e commerce operators in the markets they are.

亚马逊已经在其中几个市场站稳了脚跟。

Amazon is in a couple of these markets.

你们的听众可能不知道，南美有个叫MercadoLibre的电商平台，做得相当不错。

Your listeners don't know the Amazon of South America called MercadoLibre doing a very good job.

要注意的是，它们主要卖的还是日用商品，尤其是电子产品和快消品。

Keep in mind that they're predominantly geared towards merchandise, very much around electronics and fast moving stuff.

所以它们确实是竞争对手，但要是看食品这一块，差别就很大了。

So they are a competitor, but again, very different in terms of if we look at the food side of things.

再想想那些大件的东西，比如户外家具之类的，网购起来还是没那么方便。

And then think about the heavier, bigger stuff that you're going to pick up like garden furniture and stuff, that's still harder to do.

不过它们也清楚这一点。

But they're aware of this.

他们正在考虑未来通过门店作为线上购物的自提点，发展电商业务。

They are looking at the idea of some sort of e commerce down the road, using their stores as the pickup side of things.

但这仍然是一个值得深入探讨的领域，我稍后再回过头来谈。

But that still is an area where And I'll come back to you mentioned.

过去两年里，公司管理层发生了变动。

So there was a change in management in the last two years.

这挺有意思的。

It was interesting.

那位一直从基层一步步成长起来的曾孙，正式接任了首席执行官。

The grand grandson who'd been working his way through took over officially as CEO.

他们还聘请了一位新的首席财务官，这位高管在南美有着出色的管理履历，进一步印证了他们正把南美作为重点拓展市场，比如智利。

And they brought in a new CFO who comes with a strong track record of management in South America, which again, adds to this understanding that South America is where we may see them lean into places like Chile as new markets.

他本人对这一区域很熟悉，尤其是在电商发展相对成熟的智利。

And he has some experience on that side, particularly a place like Chile where e commerce is a bit more developed.

所以我觉得再过两三年，我们会看到他们在这一块有更多资本投入。

So I think two, three years from now, we'll hear a bit more of that CapEx going into that side of things.

但目前来看，资本支出主要还是用于多开几家门店，同步完善配送中心，逐步释放运营效率的潜力。

But right now, CapEx really is just as building more of these stores, bring the DC along, and just leaning into this operating leverage over time.

是的。

Yeah.

当你在美国看到类似的情况时，确实挺有意思的。

It's interesting when you have a proxy in The US.

我可能说得有点啰嗦，但好市多在电商浪潮中依然能持续增长，这个案例也特别值得参考。

I'm gonna beat it to death, but the Costco and their ability to thrive throughout the e commerce revolution is an interesting case study too relative to this.

你刚才提到的这些点，放在美国的实际情况里看，都更有说服力。

Everything you mentioned there has some added credibility when you look at how things have managed here.

谈到未来展望和潜在风险，你已经提到了不少理论上存在的挑战，但对你来说，最关键的是哪一点？也就是哪些事必须做对，才能实现未来的可能性？

In terms of looking forward and the risks that do exist, you've referenced many risks that theoretically exist, but what would stand out if anything the most to you in terms of what's most important to get right to fulfill what's possible in the future?

对。

Yeah.

就是继续坚持他们现在在做的事。

Really keep doing what they're doing.

他们并没有急于改变任何东西，也没有做剧烈调整。

They're not rushing anything, changing anything dramatically.

我认为，自有品牌依然是一个重要的方向。

I think, certainly, private label continues to be an area.

如果看美国最顶尖的案例，比如好市多，自有品牌占比大约是三分之一。

If you look at so best in class US, Costco, about 33.

山姆会员店，根据我看到的披露数据，刚刚超过百分之三十。

Sam's Clubs, I think, is just above 30% from the disclosure I saw.

他们目前是百分之十九。

They're right now at 19%.

未来如果能进一步扩大这一块，尤其是在生鲜品类上，比如他们最近在电话会议中提到的，正在开发自有品牌的鸡肉产品。

The ability to maybe do more of that going forward, that tends to be more, if we think on the fresh side, the ability So one area right now they'll talk about on the call is developing private label chicken offer.

他们正在寻找本地的大规模养殖户合作。

And this is going out and finding some large farmers they can deal with locally.

很多原料都是本地采购，这样也能和当地供应商建立良好的关系。

A lot of that is sourced, so it's building goodwill with the local guys.

但关键是把品质稳定下来，不是只在一家店能做到，而是要推广到十家店。

But getting the type of quality which is consistent, rather than just being one little store where you can come in, getting this across 10 stores.

所以在大市场，我觉得这完全做得到。

So in the bigger markets, I think that's feasible.

以后我们会看到更多这样的做法。

We'll see more of that.

这能提升利润率，因为做自有品牌通常就是为了用同样的产品赚更多钱。

That's margin improvement because generally you enter a private label transaction because it's margin improvement for the same type of thing you're offering.

同时还能提升品牌信誉。

It also builds your reputation.

一旦顾客第一次买你家的生鲜产品，觉得品质特别好，他们就更愿意试试你家的其他东西。

Once someone is buying something for you on the fresh side for the first time and is really good quality, you're more likely to go and try their other stuff.

大家都知道，好市多的虾可是出了名的好吃。

And as we know, Costco is renowned for its famous shrimps.

接下来自然就会推鸡肉、热狗，还有这些其他产品。

Obviously, then you do the things like the chickens, the hot dogs, and all this stuff.

大多数时候，一涉及到生鲜产品，我们一开始其实很看重品牌。

Most of the time when it goes to something fresh, we really wanted a brand at first.

我们会去试试本地的，但品质一定要过硬的产品。

We're gonna go try something which is local but of really good quality.

我觉得他们在这方面还能做得更多。

So I think there's more they can do there.

另外，我觉得他们还能提供一些其他服务。

The other part, I think, is some of the other services they can do.

现在的情况还挺简单的。

So right now, it's pretty straightforward.

你提到过，你会开车去换轮胎。

You talked about how you're going to the auto to get your tires.

他们现在还不提供这项服务。

They don't do that right now.

考虑到他们的门店位置，汽车相关服务其实是个挺有潜力的方向。

That is an area where auto is an interesting one given how they're located.

他们有停车场。

They have the parking area.

在一些规模较大的经济体里，他们也可能做类似的事。

Might be something they might do in some of these larger economies as well.

这是一种增值服务。

It's an added service.

大多数情况下，他们关注的是那些竞争分散的领域，但回到便利性这个点上——如果你能一站式把所有事情都办了，记住，我们之前聊过，我们卖的是时间。

And most of the times, what they're looking at is areas where there is fragmented competition, but where, coming back to this idea of convenience, If you can go and get all this done and say, Remember, we talked about cases, we sell you time.

最宝贵的资源，你怎么都嫌不够，得让他们做得更好。

The most valuable commodity you just cannot get enough of, make sure they're even better.

这非常有力量。

And that's very powerful.

还有，像轮胎或汽车配件这类东西，也可以考虑批量采购。

Also getting the benefit of, then these are the kind of things where you can think about bulk supply, whether it's tires or auto parts.

这可能是将来的事。

That could be something down the road.

他们还没提到这一点，但挺有意思的。

They haven't talked about that, but it's interesting.

从成本角度、提供折扣的能力，以及目标客户群体来看，这完全说得通。

That's an area where from both a dollar point of view, the ability to offer discounts and the type of customer they're going for, that would make a lot of sense.

这些依然是增长的机会。

These are still avenues of growth.

我觉得这得等到我们达到一定规模之后才行。

So I think this is more once we get to a certain scale.

关键是把这种优质、稳定、信誉良好的服务带到本地市场，效果非常好。

But really, it's bringing this great, consistent, good quality, solid reputation to these local markets, and it's working very well.

然后他们进一步深化了这一点。

And then it's really leaning into this.

长期来看，越来越多的美国公民搬到这些地方生活，有的是工作，有的是定居；同时，也有很多来自这些国家的人去美国工作后又回去了，他们的经验立刻就派上了用场。

There is this long term structural growth of US citizens moving to these markets to live, sometimes for work and then staying there, but also people from a lot of these countries who come to The US worked and gone back, and that experience immediately kicks in.

他们在那边的沟通越多，效果就越明显。

And the more and more communication they're doing on that side is working very well.

但最后一点，关键在于提升了会员数量。

But the final part was really this ability to lift up the membership number.

一开始，人们以为他们只是从普通水平提升了。

People at first thought that maybe they moved from the average.

刚开始的时候，价格从30美元涨到60美元，现在是从45美元涨到90美元，这个涨幅在当地可是相当可观。

When they started, it was like 30 going to $60 it's now $45 to 90 It's a big number going locally.

效果非常好，因为他们强调的不只是价格高，而是你算一算，能拿到的回报有多划算。

It's working very well because I think they're emphasizing, yes, that's big number, but look at all the benefits you're getting when you do the math.

这完全说得通。

It makes a lot of sense.

所以我们的会员流失率特别低。

And this is why we're seeing very low churn.

续约率几乎达到了91%。

You've almost got like a 91% renewal rate.

在高端用户那边，比例还要更高。

It's higher at the higher end.

差不多快到百分之百了，不过得说清楚，这个基数比较小。

It's almost close to 100, but granted that's a smaller base.

但这说明真正参与的人确实看到了好处，而且这本来就是日常开销，所以效果自然好。

But that's telling you that those who are doing it really are seeing the benefits and it's working because this is just general spending anyway.

人们或许还有别的选择，但这个方案真正把他们吸引过来了。

People do maybe have another option, but this is really bringing them in.

太有意思了。

Fascinating.

我很好奇。

I'm curious.

你们对这个业务有估值模型吗？

Do you have a valuation framework for this business?

市场有多大？

What is the market?

他们是怎么操作的？我的意思是，这背后有个明显的增长故事。

How do they approach this where I mean, there's a growth story.

范围挺广的。

It's broad.

不过，我真的很想听听你聊聊这个。

But, yeah, I would just love to hear you talk on that.

估值这事儿确实挺难的。

Tougher in the sense of valuation is always a tough one.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Absolutely.

以前这东西便宜多了。

This used to be a lot cheaper.

以前股价还在十几美元的时候。

This used to trade in the teens.

现在呢，按未来预期算，股价已经到二十出头了。

It's now trading I'm looking at forward numbers like in the low twenties.

美国的同行，虽然在商业模式上只算部分可比，但估值倍数高得多。

The US peers, which are peers to a certain extent in terms of the business model, are trading at much higher multiples.

有人会说，他们的估值已经充分反映了前景。

One would argue maybe fuller multiples.

不过说实话，我跟踪美国零售市场很久了，市场确实愿意为持续稳定的增长买单。

Now to be fair, having followed The US retail market for a while, the market pays for sustained, consistent growth.

甚至有点过头了。

Maybe a bit too much.

一旦增长稍微放缓，市场就会狠狠打压你。

It tends to pan you very harsh when your growth hits a speed bump.

看看百货公司和沃尔玛、好市多这些企业的区别就知道了。

So look at the differentiation between some of the department store companies versus the Walmarts and the Costcos of the world.

这其中也带点科技的成分。

There's a bit of tech in there as well.

确实如此。

That's true.

这家不该和美国同行一样估值这么高，因为有三个根本性的不同。

This shouldn't trade up there with The US peers because there are three fundamental differences.

首先，美国那家公司面对的是一个高度统一的市场。

One is, with The US player, you're looking at one homogenous market.

规模效应很明显。

There's benefits of scale.

体量也大得多。

There's deep size.

业务规模要大上很多。

There are much larger things.

而这家公司所处的市场环境确实更不稳定，波动性是存在的。

This one does have some added volatile of the markets it operates in, where there is there will be some volatility.

不过目前还没体现出来，但他们的执行一直很稳。

However, that hasn't shown up just yet, but they continue to execute.

这还是一家中型市值的公司。

This is a mid cap name as well.

咱们得说清楚一点。

Let's be clear.

理论上，中盘股的波动性通常更高。

Mid caps tend to, in theory, trade more volatile.

这家公司财报公布前后，中盘股往往能涨跌7%，然后又回到稳定增长的轨道，接着又容易引发市场关注。

This one around earnings, you notice with mid caps, can trade up or down 7%, and then goes back to its, like, normal consistent growth, and then it tends to make news flow.

不过我觉得这只股票现在还在被市场发现的过程中。

I think this is still being discovered as a stock, though.

这公司挺特别的，虽然是家美国企业，但所有业务都做在国外。

And this is a weird one because it's a US company which sells all its business outside of The US.

所以我们旗下新兴市场基金持有它，等它规模再大一点，也可以放进其他基金里。

So this is one where we have an our emerging market fund, but we're also able to, as it gets bigger, put in some of the other funds.

它的流动性还不错。

There's a liquidity.

我之前提到过，这家公司大约25%到30%的股份是被控制的。

I mentioned about 25%, 30% of the company pretty much is controlled.

所以这五十亿美元的交易空间其实没那么大了。

So that $5,000,000,000 becomes less in terms of where you can trade.

这更像一个长期的故事。

So this is really much more of a longer term story.

跟我们刚聊Casey的时候差不多，不过一旦你理解了，看到它表现良好，就会觉得真是个好故事。

Not too different to Casey's, by the way, when we first started talking about it, but a great story once you get it and see it perform and do well.

所以从估值角度看，你不该觉得它中期能涨到像好市多那样的倍数。

Therefore, from a valuation perspective, this is not something you should be saying could get to a Costco type multiple in the midterm.

但这家公司在波动性更强的地区有业务，却能保持收入的稳定增长，还能在动荡时期照样实现盈利，这种可见性和执行力非常出色。

However, the nature of the visibility of the sustainable top line growth, combined through the ability to manage through volatile times and still execute on earnings, is very strong for a company which has exposure to a more volatile region.

作为新兴市场基金经理，从零售板块来看，这算是我最想放进组合里的有活力的标的之一。

So as an EM manager, this actually looks as one of the more interesting dynamic names I'd want to have in the portfolio on the retail side.

而且，这家公司的管理团队确实配得上一个溢价。

And then finally, there's definitely worthiness for a premium here of the DNA of the management.

遇到这种已经证明过自己、真正懂行的团队，再好不过了。

It doesn't get better when you have these guys who've proven it, know it.

这是一家家族企业。

It's a family business.

通常来说，那些能长远发展的家族企业，都是着眼于长期目标的。

Generally, you find some great long run family businesses taking the long term approach and view to where they're going to be.

因为在市场波动的时候，它们不太受情绪左右，反而常常抓住波动带来的机会，提升业务和未来的布局。

Because those tend to be the ones that also, through the volatile times, are less driven by the ups and downs of sentiment and really actually, more often than not, take advantage of the opportunities of the volatility to improve the business and their exposure going forward.

所以我觉得它的股价有潜力涨到二十多倍，目前仍然估值合理。

So that gives me a feel that this can trade up to the mid-20s, and it's still fairly valued.

当然，我们还得看执行能不能持续跟上。

Then we have to see, obviously, the execution keep coming through.

但就像我之前说的，无论是门店数量、收入潜力，还是盈利空间，这些指标都在稳步上升。

But like I mentioned, if I'm looking at store count, revenue potential, earnings upside, all of these things are moving up and to the right.

在零售行业，这本来就是个很难做的行当。

And in retail, retail generally is a tough business.

我们总在谈成功案例，但你去问问这里任何人。

I know we talk about the success stories, but speak to anyone here.

这就是为什么我总说，山姆·沃尔顿说得太准了：你能掌控的，就是物流这一块。

This why I always come back to Sam Walton hit it on the head when he said, The more you can control within your margin, that logistics.

说到底，物流才是零售竞争的胜负手。

Coming back to general purging, logistics is what wins retail wars.

这一点至关重要。

It's very important.

总有不少顾问跑来劝他们：要轻资产运营。

They get a lot of consultants coming in saying, go asset light.

但这种做法一到困难时期就会反噬你。

They can generate comes back to bite you in the tough times.

你必须保持这种稳定性。

You've gotta have that consistency.

所以我觉得他们在这方面做得非常到位。

So I think they're right up there.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

我也很喜欢这种对估值方法的全面分析。

And I like the very holistic breakdown of that valuation approach too.

听你这么讲，真的很有帮助。

That was extremely helpful to hear.

这次对话特别有意思。

This has been very interesting.

你又在给我们很多人上了一课，关于一个可能很多人并不熟悉的行业。

You're, I think, instructing a lot of us again on a business that probably many weren't familiar with.

我们通常会在最后总结一下，能从中吸取哪些经验，或许能用在别处。

We close these out with the lessons that you can take away, potentially apply elsewhere.

从这次讨论里，显然有很多东西可以借鉴，但你觉得最值得记住的是哪一点？

Seems like there's a lot that could be applicable elsewhere from this one, but what would you say stands out the most?

首先，我特别喜欢历史。

First and foremost, I love history.

我算是个历史爱好者。

I'm a bit of a history buff.

我儿子现在19岁，马上要去上大学，我给他推荐了几本书来读。

My son who's 19 now, he's heading off to college recommending some books to read.

首先，山姆·沃尔顿的那本特别不错。

Firstly, the Sam Walton is a great one.

我想让他了解零售业的起起落落、商业模式，还有他是怎么做到的。

I just wanna read about the ups and downs of retail, the business model, how he got there.

还有索尔·普赖斯的那本书。

Sol Price's book.

如果找不到原书，网上也能找到一些书评。

If you can't get it, you can find some online reviews.

这本书绝对值得一读，因为它能唤起老一辈人的回忆，问问他们对Fed Mart的印象。

It's definitely one worth reading because it and speaks to anyone from an older generation and asks them about Fed Mart.

你上网看看，那些老会员还留着当年的会员卡，说起这事都忍不住笑。

And if you go online, you see the older club members who have the original card and they talk about and laugh about it.

不过，这种俱乐部模式背后的运作方式，真的很有趣。

But it is very interesting, this idea of the dynamic of a club.

如果当初有人告诉你，刚来这儿得花钱才能购物，你什么都不知道，

If someone had told you, starting out fresh, you didn't know anything, you have to pay to shop here.

你肯定想：那我干脆去隔壁店买好了。

You're like, I'll just go shop next door.

但你要是明白，你付的钱换来了什么，就会觉得值了。

But you do understand if you pay what you're getting on the other side.

这个模式挺有意思的，背后的运作方式尤其独特。

The whole concept is an interesting one, but a very interesting dynamic.

所以说，这提醒我们，总有人能以全新的视角切入行业，为后来者打下基础。

So again, it's a reminder there are people who are able to come in and change industries in the way they look at it and set something up for others going forward.

就像我说的，索尔·普赖斯的影响力，可以说延伸到了家得宝这些我们熟知的大企业。

And like I said, Sol Price arguably influenced the likes of Home Depot and these other giants we know.

所以他的理念，或者他们这一类想法，影响范围非常广泛。

So his impact or the impact of their ideas are very prevalent across the board.

这还牵扯到一个观点——欧洲人叫它ESG，但很多顶尖企业早就意识到，除了品牌形象，还得为社区创造价值。

It ties in also with this idea, I think, of the Europeans call it ESG, but very often, of the greatest companies have also thought about their customer base in terms of their image, but also what they're bringing and adding to the community.

这在就业和本地供应链方面都是积极的影响。

And that's in a good way in terms of jobs, local jobs in terms of supply chains coming in.

我觉得越来越多的年轻消费者，我知道总说他们喜欢有故事的品牌，但这些故事真的特别值得追随。

I think more and more, if you look at the younger generation customer base, I know we keep saying they love their stories and stuff, but these are fantastic stories to follow.

很多时候，资本主义总被说得一无是处。

And very often, capitalism gets a bad name.

这才是良性 capitalism。

This is good capitalism.

我觉得在当下这个年代，虽然我不是在谈政治，但‘好’与‘坏’这些词被乱用得很厉害。

And I think that's important in an era where, I'm not being political here, but it gets thrown around good or bad.

归根结底，美国是个资本主义社会。

America is a capitalist society at the end of day.

理解这些元素如何协同作用、发挥出良好效果，非常重要。

This is important to understand how these things can combine and work very well.

最后一点，聊这些话题其实特别有意思。

The final part is, it's fun when you talk about these things.

我有一群朋友来自南美洲。

I have a bunch of friends who are from South America.

还有你提到的加勒比地区的人，也是一样。

And actually, anyone you mentioned from The Caribbean.

你知道吧，纽约有非常多这样的人。

You know anyone from endless a lot people in New York.

我提过PriceSmart这家店。

I mentioned PriceSmart.

大家一听都笑得特别开心。

Big smiles.

我妈妈就在那儿买东西。

I own my mother shops there.

我特别喜欢研究中的那些真实小故事。

One thing I love about research is the anecdotal side.

在零售行业，这种故事特别有意思。

And with retail, it's great to do.

我提到过，第一次去凯西家的时候，我亲自去看了看，还带上了我女婿。

I mentioned how when I first went to Casey's, I went out, checked it out, took my son-in-law.

其实他就是我的试吃员。

Actually, he's my test bed.

他老跟一帮打冰球的朋友出去打冰球。

He's out there playing hockey with his hockey buddies.

你去试试他们的披萨。

Try the pizza.

告诉我你觉得怎么样。

Tell me what you think.

他特别喜欢。

Loved it.

所以就有了反馈。

So feedback.

对。

Yeah.

不错。

Good.

现在他们开始卖鸡翅了。

Now they're doing chicken wings.

他老提起这个。

He talks about it.

你要明白，像零售这种直接面对消费者的行业，口碑传播往往比产品本身还要关键。

You understand that particularly with something like retail, which is consumer touching, that core mouth of word, word-of-mouth marketing can be the most important thing above and beyond actually the product.

这一点依然非常重要。

And that still is very important.

在机器人替我们买菜之前，尽管有了电商，但说到底，大多数人还是喜欢去超市逛一逛。

This is an area which, until we have robots going and doing the shopping for us, know we have e commerce, at the end of the day, most of us still like to go shopping to the supermarket.

这可是全家一起参与的事儿。

It's an event we do with families.

这方面，产品和优质的价值感依然很关键。

This continues to be a key area where product, good quality of value.

而且，没错，超市在未来很长一段时间内还是会存在的。

And, yeah, look, supermarkets will still be around for a long time.

会员制商店真是太棒了。

Club stores are amazing.

这些其实都能和我们的日常生活联系起来。

These are the kind things I think you can tie in with just your daily life as well.

所以这个人是谁来着？我忘了富达那位先生的名字。

So this is who's the I forget the name of the guy at Fidelity.

彼得·林奇。

Peter Lynch.

对。

Yes.

彼得·林奇。

Peter Lynch.

这招不是对所有东西都管用，但这一类商品，你亲自体验过、理解了，就能慢慢看出它的门道。

It doesn't always work with everything, but this is one where you can experience the product, understand it, and start to see how it works.

我觉得这正好属于这一类。

I think this falls in that remit.

就像我之前说的，这确实是个值得关注的问题，因为我特别喜欢了解各个国家的情况。

And like I said, this is an issue because I love learning about new countries, all the countries they're in.

我们很多人其实都知道这些国家的名字。

There's a lot we know the names.

我觉得经过我们这次聊天之后，很多人可能会去了解一下哥伦比亚。

I think a lot of people, for instance, after our conversation, will maybe go and check out Colombia.

哥伦比亚的经济非常有活力，发展得相当不错。

Colombia is a very dynamic economy, come a long way.

阿根廷以前可是比委内瑞拉还厉害的经济体。

Argentina used to be the big guy in Venezuela.

这些国家现在都在快速成长。

These guys are really developing.

真的挺了不起的。

It's pretty amazing.

了解这些之后，如果你去旅游，就会亲眼看到这些情况。

And so learning that, and if you go as a tourist, you'll see these things.

看到世界上还有另一片天地，真的很有趣。

It is interesting to see there is another part of the world.

所以我们非常支持全球投资、国际投资，寻找那些与美国优秀企业相似的绝佳机会。

So we're big fans of global investing, international investing, looking for great opportunities that are similar to the great US peers.

美国市场确实很棒。

The US market's great.

但其他地方也有类似美国的机会。

But there's other opportunities out there which mimic what we see in The US.

有时候，这些机会的估值还更吸引人。

And sometimes you can find them at valuations which are even more appealing.

把它们加入你的多元化投资组合，长期来看也能带来不错的复利增长。

So adding that to your diversified portfolio is a great long term compounder as well.

我太喜欢了。

I love it.

再次和你聊天真是太愉快了，马库斯。

This has been a pleasure again, Markus.

我很感谢，也很享受这些对话。

I appreciate it and enjoy these conversations quite a bit.

非常感谢你抽出时间来参加这次交流。

So thank you very much for your time and coming on.

谢谢你邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

每次都很开心。

It's always great.

谢谢你，马特。

Thank you, Matt.

想了解更多关于好市多、维萨、莫德纳等公司的深度分析，或者订阅我们的每周简报，请访问 joincolossus.com。

To find more episodes of breakdowns ranging from Costco to Visa to Moderna or to sign up for our weekly summary, check out joincolossus.com.

网址是 joincolossus.com。

That's joincolossus.com.