Trader Joe's：给高学历但低收入者的杂货店 - [商业拆解，第76集]

这是商业拆解。

This is Business Breakdowns.

《商业拆解》是一系列与投资者和经营者深入探讨单一企业的对话。

Business Breakdowns is a series of conversations with investors and operators diving deep into a single business.

对于每个企业，我们都会探索其发展历程、商业模式、竞争优势以及驱动其运转的核心因素。

For each business, we explore its history, its business model, its competitive advantages, and what makes it tick.

我们相信每个企业都蕴含着投资者和经营者可以学习的经验与秘密，而我们的使命就是将这些内容呈现给你。

We believe every business has lessons and secrets that investors and operators can learn from, and we are here to bring them to you.

要查找更多拆解节目，请访问 joincolossus.com。

To find more episodes of breakdowns, check out joincolossus.com.

主持人和播客嘉宾表达的所有观点均为其个人意见。

All opinions expressed by hosts and podcast guests are solely their own opinions.

主持人、播客嘉宾及其雇主或关联方可能持有本播客中讨论的证券。

Hosts, podcast guests, their employers, or affiliates may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

本播客仅作信息参考之用，不应作为投资决策的依据。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.

这是来自Irenic Capital的投资者扎克·富斯，今天我们将深入剖析Trader Joe's。

This is Zack Fuss, an investor at Irenic Capital, and today, we are breaking down Trader Joe's.

Trader Joe's并不是一家典型的杂货连锁店。

Trader Joe's is not a typical grocery chain.

他们的门店商品选择更少，品牌极少，产品线不断更新，且没有线上渠道。

Their stores offer less choice, very few brands, constantly changing product lines, and no online option.

然而，他们深受顾客喜爱，并且利润丰厚。

Yet, they are adored and highly profitable.

他们的净推荐值（NPS）在业内领先，据我们所知，尽管定价更低，但其每平方英尺的销售额却高于市场上任何其他专业杂货店。

Their NPS score is industry leading, and from what we can tell, despite offering lower prices, they generate more revenue per square foot than any dedicated grocery store in the market.

为了剖析Trader Joe's，我邀请到了克里斯蒂娜·贝塔·琼斯，她是一位长期专注于电商和杂货投资的专家，目前正打造一家名为Picnic的在线超市。

To break down Trader Joe's, I'm joined by Cristina Berta Jones, a longtime e commerce and grocery investor who is now building an online supermarket business called Picnic.

我们一同拆解了这家私营杂货连锁店长期成功的关键要素。

Together, we unpack the elements that have made this private grocery chain so successful for such a long period of time.

请享受这次对Trader Joe's的商业剖析。

Please enjoy this business breakdown of Trader Joe's.

克里斯蒂娜，感谢你加入我们，一起来剖析Trader Joe's。

Cristina, thank you for joining us to break down Trader Joe's.

我们非常兴奋能讨论这个广受欢迎的企业。

We're tremendously excited to talk about this massively popular business.

我认为一个好的切入点是将Trader Joe's与传统超市进行对比。

I thought a good place to start would be to compare and contrast Trader Joe's to the conventional grocery store supermarket.

那我就请你先来谈谈这个话题。

So I'll let you kick it off there.

太好了。

Super.

非常期待能讨论这个话题。

Really excited to talk about this.

Trader Joe's是我最喜欢谈论的商业案例，原因有很多。

Trader Joe's is my favorite business to talk about for a number of reasons.

我认为它是杂货零售业中最强大的商业模式之一。

It is one of the most formidable formats, I think, in grocery retail.

如果从宏观角度来看，他们创造了一种非常难以复制的、独特且极其成功的商业模式，这在当时是如此，如今依然如此，我认为这是美国市场上的一大亮点，而且他们显然是一家私营企业。

If you start from the broad strokes, they've come up with what is and certainly was at the time, but still is today, I think a very hard to replicate unique, extremely successful formats in The US and they're obviously a private business.

因此，要确切了解其数据相当困难，但据我所知，他们的年销售额至少超过150亿美元，这使他们成为一家相当规模的杂货零售商，当然还无法与克罗格或沃尔玛相提并论。

So it's quite hard to be certain on numbers, but at least from what I know, they operate a business that's well worth north of $15,000,000,000 in sales, which makes them a fairly large grocery retailer, of course, not anything of the size of a Kroger or Walmart.

因此，从其商业模式的本质来看，他们并非大众化的超级市场。

So, in the nature of the format, I suppose they are not mass market supermarkets.

从这个意义上说，他们可能永远达不到那样的规模，但他们却极其盈利。

In that sense, they'll probably never be of that size, but they're tremendously profitable.

就每平方英尺的营业额而言，他们的业绩远超普通超市的四到五倍，达到每平方英尺1800美元以上，据我回忆，这甚至比全食超市还要高出近一倍。

So, the business itself in terms of the turnover per square foot, they're well above four or five times the average supermarket, somewhere north of $1,800 per square foot, which is at least from what I recall, even compared to a Whole Foods, something like twice as much.

他们能够实现远高于平均水平的每平方英尺销售额。

They are able to sell far more square foot.

这得益于一方面更小的实体店面规模。

That is a product of, on one hand, much smaller physical format.

他们的店面面积大约为1万平方英尺，而普通超市的平均面积则超过3万平方英尺。

So they have about 10,000 square feet, whereas a regular supermarket grocery store would have 30,000 plus on average.

但他们还有一点，我认为这可能是最重要的部分：他们销售的产品种类少得多。

But they also, and I think this is probably the most important part, they operate far fewer products.

他们大约有4000个库存单位（SKU），而普通超市平均有三万多个，尽管我认为像克罗格这样的大型连锁店SKU数量甚至超过五万个。

They have about 4,000 SKUs, stock keeping units, whereas a regular supermarket would have an average of 30 some thousand, though I think many of the large formats, Kroger's and such go well over 50,000 SKUs.

如果进一步分析其经济模式，这便成为他们如此高效的主要原因之一，因为他们只需要操心采购、营销、上架、储存和处理4000种产品，而不是普通超市所面对的那么多。

If you then drill into the economics, that then becomes one of the main reasons why they're able to be so efficient because they literally have to only worry about buying, marketing, shelving, storing, handling 4,000 products as opposed to what a regular supermarket does.

他们只销售自有品牌，你知道的，所以他们不采购其他大型快消品公司的品牌。

It is only private brands, as you know, so they don't buy other large CPG company brands.

他们只卖自己的品牌，并且直接从源头、供应商和制造商那里采购，没有任何中间商。

They only sell their own brand and they buy that directly from the source, from the vendors, from the manufacturers, so there's no middleman.

但这就是重点。

But that's the highlight.

克里斯蒂娜，我认为要更好地展开这个对话，最好先对食品零售市场做一个总体概述。

Cristina, I think a really helpful way to frame this conversation would be to provide a bit of an overview on the food retail market.

我们讨论的这个终端市场规模有多大？

How big of an end market are we talking about?

Trader Joe's在规模、体量和能力方面处于什么位置？

Where does Trader Joe's fit into the picture in terms of size and scale and capabilities?

所以也许先从这里开始，为我们听众概述一下这个行业。

So maybe just start there and frame the industry for our listeners.

这是一个非常有趣的行业，我们可以聊上很久，因为它的细节确实异常精彩。

It's a fascinating industry, we could go on for a while because it is actually amazingly beautiful in its detail.

这就是我们的宏观视角。

And that's our big picture.

如果你看一下美国的杂货市场，其销售额远超8000亿美元左右。

If you look at certainly The US grocery market, it's well over 800,000,000,000 or so in sales.

与大多数欧洲国家的标准相比，这个市场极其分散。

It is extremely fragmented, certainly relative to most European country standards.

比如，Kroger是这个行业里最大的纯零售企业。

It is, let's say, Kroger's, for example, the largest pure play in the business.

当然，沃尔玛也涉足杂货业务，但Kroger，作为最大的连锁杂货零售商，年销售额大约在1500亿美元左右。

Of course, Walmart also plays in grocery, but Kroger, let's say the largest retail grocery chain, it's about $150,000,000,000 or so.

它们在杂货市场中的份额不到20%，其他所有企业都比这小得多。

They have less than 20% of that grocery market, then everybody else is far smaller than that.

Trader Joe's以及一般来说，我们称这些为更专业的零售业态，我还包括Aldi和Lidl这样的折扣店，它们的规模甚至更小。

Trader Joe's and in general, let's call them these more specialty retail formats, and I'd include the discounters like Aldi and Lidl, they're still even smaller.

Aldi，我认为这些公司都是私营的，确切数据很难确认，但Aldi的销售额估计超过400亿美元。

So Aldi, and I think these are all private companies, it's bit hard to know for sure, but Aldi is estimated to sell well over 40,000,000,000.

所以它们仍然算是相当可观的规模。

So they're still, let's say, sizable.

但Trader Joe's的销售额大约是150亿美元。

But Trader Joe's, it's about 15,000,000,000.

从整个市场的总量来看，它是一个非常小的业务。

It's a tiny business in the greater scheme of things as far as the total market goes.

但它却极其盈利。

But it is tremendously profitable.

如果我要做个比较，这些都是基于我多年来拼凑的各种数据点得出的。

If I try to compare, it's all a bit based on various data points that I've cobbled together over the years.

但在一项关于硬折扣模式与超市模式的研究中，数据显示，传统超市与硬折扣店之间的EBIT利润率存在约1.5到2个百分点的显著差距。

But in a study that was done on, let's say, the hard discounter model versus the grocery model, the research points to a good gap of, say, one and a half, two points of difference in EBIT margin between a traditional grocer and a hard discounter.

此外，我认为，如果以克罗格的EBIT利润率大约在3.3%到3.5%为基准，那么像奥乐齐和利德尔这样的硬折扣店，其EBIT利润率可能达到5%左右。

On top of that, I'd say, and that would mean, for example, if you take Kroger's EBIT margin around 3.3, 3.5 at best, that basically means that if that's right, a hard discounter like Aldi and Little are probably able to make 5% or so in EBIT margin.

而Trader Joe's因为销售的是高端商品，我稍后会详细说明，这确实是他们商业模式中非常有趣的一部分——他们极度注重每立方米的高价值产出。

Trader Joe's, because they sell higher end merchandise, I'll get into that in a second because it is a fascinating part about certainly how they've built the business, really focusing on high value per cubic meter, if you will.

我只能想象，他们的利润率还能更高。

I can only imagine that they can do even better than that.

所以，如果他们的利润率能达到6%或7%，而不是我之前假设的奥乐齐或利德尔的5%，那么Trader Joe's每年的利润就能达到或超过10亿美元。

So let's say that if that number is more like six or 7% versus the 5% that I'm assuming for an Aldi or Lidl, that would basically make Trader Joe's a business that generates about or over 1,000,000,000 in profit every year.

这是一个非常有吸引力的业务。

It's a very attractive business.

当然，所有人都关注超市行业的利润率，都知道它们极其微薄。

Of course, everybody focuses on a percent margins in grocery and they all know they're super thin.

但正如你所知，这是一个基于巨大营收规模的年金式业务。

But as you know, it's an annuity business on large revenue numbers.

现金流和利润非常可观，这大概就是为什么进入这个行业很有趣，尤其是作为Trader Joe's参与其中。

The cash flows and the profits are very attractive, which is, I guess, why it's interesting to be in the business and certainly interested to be a Trader Joe's in this business.

它们每平方米产生的利润和销售额远超世界上绝大多数零售商，或许只有某些日本零售商在每平方米的效率上能与之媲美。

They generate far more profit and far more sales per square meter than I think pretty much anybody else in the world, say for maybe some Japanese retailers that maybe take the cake on efficiency per square meter.

我相信我们接下来会详细讨论所有具体的细节、领域和差异，但为了让我们听众对门店有更直观的感受，大多数门店的布局都颇为相似，你能谈谈门店的不同区域、布局，以及顾客应该如何感受在Trader Joe's购物的体验吗？

I'm sure we're going to talk about all the specific nuances and areas and differences, but to just bring a store to life for our audience, most of the stores are organized in fairly comparable ways, but can you talk about the different sections of the store and the layout and how people should perceive what shopping at Trader Joe's is like?

我来试着描述一下，虽然用语言来描述确实很难，但我想可以从你走进店内的第一感觉说起——你根本不会觉得自己身处一家普通超市。

I'll give it a shot and I think it's obviously quite hard to describe in words, but maybe where I'll start is that you walk in and you don't feel like you're in a grocery store.

你不会看到刺眼的荧光灯，也不会看到一排排冗长的过道和密密麻麻的价签与标识。

So you don't have the neon lighting and the big long aisles with lots of different numbers and signage.

你会感觉像是走进了一家更小、更独立的杂货店。

You feel like you're entering a far more small, independent grocery store.

它的布局并不遵循标准模式。

The layout is not really standard.

我认为我所去过的大多数Trader Joe's门店都完美适配了它们所在的建筑空间。

I think most Trader Joe's that I've walked into fits the building that they're in.

我以前常去的那家波士顿店，布局和我记忆中布鲁克林的那家完全不同。

The one in Boston that I used to shop at, a very different store layout than the one in Brooklyn that I recall.

它们通常不会开在城市中心以外或太偏僻的商业区。

They're typically not out of the city center or somewhere too far off in a commercial space.

所以它们在选址时确实会精心挑选不同的店面。

So they do pick different stores to start with.

它们对店面的选择非常谨慎。

They're actually very careful about store selection.

这当然与这些门店的盈利能力密切相关，因为它们会尽力选择人口密度最高的区域，也就是他们所说的‘受过良好教育、出行频繁但收入不高’的白领人群。

Certainly, that has a lot to do with how profitable these stores are because they try their best to pick the biggest density for their demographic, which is what they call the well traveled, but not well paid, educated professional.

因此，它们在大学校园周边等地表现突出，这些地方的大型建筑能带来更多的客流量。

So they thrive around university campuses, etcetera, In these big buildings that have a lot more sold to them.

你走进去时，不会觉得自己身处一家杂货店。

You walk in and you don't feel like you're in a grocery store.

很多标识都是用黑板手写，配上可爱的简笔画。

A lot of the signage is on sort of chalkboards with cute little drawings.

正如他们所说，他们迎合顾客的词汇，逗乐他们的思维。

As they say, they flatter the customers vocabulary and tickle their minds.

他们确实努力玩文字游戏，既在产品命名上，也在店内标识的布置上展现机智。

They do try to make puns, be witty, both in the way they name their products, but also in the way that they put up the signage in the store.

店里的助手们都穿着著名的夏威夷衬衫，态度轻松、健谈、乐于助人。

The assistants in the store, they all have their famous Hawaiian shirts, very laid back, conversational, talkative, helpful.

某种程度上，他们已经把超市变成了这样。

In a way, they've made it into the supermarket, if you will.

他们把我们大多数人不喜欢的大型超市的方方面面都改变了。

They've taken everything that I think most of us don't enjoy about large grocery stores and they've changed it.

他们只是让购物变得有趣。

They've just made it fun.

是的。

Yeah.

让我印象最深的两件事是员工穿的夏威夷衬衫，以及如果你不喜欢某样东西，他们鼓励你退换。

Two of the things that jump out to me are the Hawaiian shirts on their staff members and also the fact that if you don't like something, want you to return it.

他们真正鼓励顾客试吃。

They literally encourage their shoppers to sample.

他们在各种方面都以创新、独特、差异化的零食和产品而闻名。

They're known in many ways for all the innovative, unique, differentiated snacks and offerings they have.

这无疑是一次独特的购物体验。

So it's definitely a unique shopping experience.

他们有多少家门店？与其他大型食品零售商相比如何？

How many stores are there and how does that compare to some of the other large scale food retailers?

Trader Joe's 的门店数量大约为500家，远少于像克罗格这样接近3000家的连锁店。

Trader Joe's has a far smaller footprint of about 500 stores relative to, say, a Kroger that's close to 3,000.

因此，与美国大多数杂货连锁店相比，它的零售规模要小得多。

So it's a far smaller retail footprint than most grocery chains in The US.

我想我记得他们每年只开一两家店，这个速度甚至比美国的Aldi还要慢得多。

I think if I recall correctly, they open one or two stores a year, which is a very slow pace even compared to, for example, Aldi in The US.

他们采取的是小而稳的扩张策略。

They go very small and steady.

他们致力于让所有门店都实现盈利。

They are looking to make all of their stores profitable.

在很多情况下，如果门店位置不当或经营不善，他们会毫不留情地关闭那些不盈利的店铺。

They're very ruthless about, in many cases, if they happen to be in the wrong location or the store is just not working out in not keeping a store that isn't profitable.

我真想看看他们的任何数据，但我推测这一定是一家现金流极其出色的业务，因为他们对现金使用极为谨慎，扩张也十分克制。

I would love to see any of their figures, but I'd assume that this is a tremendously well run cash generative business because they're extremely careful with their cash and they're extremely careful in how they expand.

我认为，考虑到他们运营的SKU数量以及对供应链的掌控力，他们的现金流管理必然是业内最出色的之一。

I think their cash flow management, certainly given the number of SKUs they operate and given the control they have on the supply chain, has to be one of the best in the industry.

我真想了解更多。

I would love to know more.

截至目前，Trader Joe's 已经是一家有五十五年历史的企业，起初是草根起步，如今已发展成为食品零售行业的重要参与者。

Trader Joe's at this point is a fifty five year old business, which had pretty grassroots beginnings and has expanded into a major player in the food retail industry.

Trader Joe's 历史上有哪些最有趣的部分？

What are some of the most interesting parts of the history of Trader Joe's?

我会尽量回忆并梳理一下我印象中的关键亮点。

I'll try to go through the highlights that at least stick in my mind.

乔·科隆布是Trader Joe's的创始人，早在创立Trader Joe's之前，他就经营过一家名为Pronto Markets的便利店连锁店。

Joe Coulomb, who is the founder of Trader Joe's, actually was in the retail business before Trader Joe's with a convenience store chain called Pronto Markets.

当时他只有二十多岁，大约26岁左右，便开始管理由Rexall公司发起的这项业务——当时Rexall是一家药店连锁企业，正试图进入20世纪50年代末迅速兴起的便利店市场。

He was only, I think, in his mid-20s, 26 or so, when he basically got to run this venture started by Rexall, which was then a drugstore chain looking to get into the then booming market for convenience stores in the late 1950s.

于是他开始经营这家企业，并将其发展成橙县规模相当大的连锁店。

So he starts running this business and builds it into a fairly large chain in Orange County.

到了六十年代中期，随着市场竞争加剧，尤其是7-Eleven这样的连锁店迅速扩张，给Pronto Markets带来了巨大压力。

And it's sometimes the mid sixties where, of course, the competitive pressure in the business and certainly seven eleven as a chain grows and puts pressure on frontal markets.

因此，Rexall决定放弃这项业务，表示他们已经对这个生意感到厌倦。

So Rexall decides to throw in the towel and says we've had it with this business.

快消品公司显然要求高额利润，并对所有这些零售商拥有强大的议价能力。

CPG companies are obviously exacting big margins and have high leverage over all these retailers.

所以，这并不是一个理想的行业。

So it's not a great business to be in.

他们决定退出这个市场。

They decide to exit.

那时，他需要做出一个决定。

And at that time, has a decision to make.

有趣的是，幸运的是，这最终与著名的夏威夷衬衫联系在一起，但据称他进行了一次漫长的加勒比海度假，几乎是在思考：我是否应该继续经营这家业务，想办法买下它并留任CEO？

And interestingly enough and fortuitously enough, it obviously comes back in the famous Hawaiian shirts, but apparently he takes an extensive Caribbean holiday and he essentially tries to decide, do I stick with this business somehow find a way to buy it out, stay on as a CEO?

如果我拥有这家公司，我会知道该怎么做不同。

I kind of know what I would do different if I own this.

但与此同时，显然还有一个选择：彻底退出，去做完全不同的事情。

But at the same time, obviously the choice is there to just bail and do something completely new.

对我们所有人来说，幸运的是，他决定留下来。

Lucky for, I guess, all of us, he decides to stick with it.

他从我认为是美国银行的地方获得了贷款，以资助这次收购。

He gets a bank loan from, I believe, Bank of America to fund him in this buyout.

我们对这家业务了解很多。

We know a lot about the business.

这是一个了不起的故事。

It's an incredible story.

看起来他学到了很多东西。

It seems like he's learned a lot.

他是如何将这些经验应用到Trader Joe's的呢？

How did he apply those lessons to Trader Joe's?

他几乎全面接手了Pronto Markets，并开始彻底改变他认为所有不奏效的地方。

He essentially takes on pronto markets and starts basically changing everything about it that he thought didn't work.

这一切始于他对知识和经验的领悟：如果你必须依赖大型消费品品牌，又不得不与竞争对手陷入价格战，时刻关注对手动向，你永远无法在这行赚到足够的利润，更谈不上经营一家有趣的企业。

And it started with certainly the knowledge and the experience that if you're going to be beholden to the large consumer product goods brands, and you're going to be in a price war with the next guy, always watching competition, you're never going to be able to make enough money in this for it to be a good business and certainly a fun business to run.

于是他回到起点，开始思考：什么样的商业模式能避开所有这些显而易见的问题呢？他想逃离这些困境。

He So goes back to the drawing board and starts thinking about, hey, what would be a business that wouldn't be subject to all of those, let's say, very obvious issues that he was looking to run away from.

同时，我认为他翻阅了几本杂志来了解相关信息。

At the same time, I think he picks up a couple of magazines to read up on this.

我想其中一本是《科学美国人》，里面谈到退伍军人法案如何催生了一波受过教育的人群，突然之间造成了美国当时巨大的人口结构变化。

I think one of them was the Scientific American in which they talk about how certainly the GI Bill has created this boom and educated people that were all of a sudden, let's say, causing a big demographic shift in The US at that time.

与此同时，波音747的出现则让海外旅行变得大众化。

While at the same time, the Boeing seven forty seven basically democratized overseas travel.

因此，你总会遇到这样一个群体：受过良好教育、见多识广，但收入未必丰厚，而且这个群体正在不断壮大。

So you always end up with this well educated, well traveled, but not always well paid class that's growing.

于是，他聚焦于这一人口结构变化，并深入研究各种可能让他占据优势的品类。

So he zeroes in on this demographic shift and then digs into, let's say, finding all of these categories in which he could get an advantage.

我认为他最初并没有打算打造我们今天所熟知的Trader Joe's。

So I don't think he necessarily sets out to build what we know today as Trader Joe's.

但他最初，我相信是从葡萄酒这一品类入手，通过研究葡萄酒的采购渠道，发现可以通过利用监管的复杂性、进口葡萄酒、定价等方式获得优势，毕竟葡萄酒仍属于单位体积价格很高的品类。

But he starts out, I believe, with wine as one category where he finds just by studying the sourcing of wine that you could certainly get an advantage by playing the intricacies of regulation by importing wine, by pricing it and getting an advantage in basically selling what is still a very high price per cubic meter category.

因此，他先从葡萄酒开始，随后有了一个明显的顿悟：归根结底，所有商品都可以像葡萄酒一样处理。

So he kind of starts with wine and then he has the obvious epiphany that at the end of the day, everything can be like wine.

没有任何东西是真正的大宗商品。

Nothing is a true commodity.

于是他开始涉足维生素、保健品、咖啡等领域，逐个品类构建业务，深入研究这些商品的供应链和来源，直达源头，寻找最佳产品，有时甚至会采购一些我称之为‘零散批次’的商品——当然，大型超市对这种零散订单毫无兴趣，因为它们会导致货品断货，还得费心补货。

So vitamins, supplements, coffee, and basically starts building a business category by category by really looking into the supply and the sources of these goods and going all the way to the source and finding ways to find best product and sometimes what I think he called odd lots, where, of course, again, the large grocery stores had no interest in arranging something that was an odd lot, would run out of assortment and then you'd have to deal with replacing it.

对大型连锁超市来说，这根本毫无吸引力。

For the larger grocery chains, this was not interesting.

但当然，以当时Trader Joe's的规模，以极低的价格采购这些批次变得非常有利可图。

But of course, at the scale that Trader Joe's was at the time, it became very interesting to buy these lots at often very, very low prices.

我记得当时有一批明显偏大或超大的鸡蛋，价格比普通大小的鸡蛋便宜很多。

So I remember at some point there was a lot of apparently large or extra large sized eggs that were much cheaper than the regular sized eggs.

但没有任何连锁超市愿意进货，因为它们属于非标准批次。

But none of the grocery chains wanted them because they were sort of an odd lot.

他们无法稳定地采购到这种规格的产品。

They couldn't source regular supply of that kind.

于是他开始专注于寻找这些所谓的非标准批次，充分利用监管漏洞以及他所定义的定价和采购优势，逐个品类地构建业务。我认为，他不仅能够获得可观的利润，还避免了竞争和价格战，当然，他选择的品类都是单位体积价格非常高的产品。

So he kind of makes a business into finding these, let's call them odd lots, and really capitalizing on regulations and on basically pricing and sourcing advantages that he defined, building basically category by category of business in which I think he was able to not only make good margin and not be subject to competition and sort of having to price match, but of course, he picks categories that are all very high priced per cubic meter.

当然，通过小型门店实现高周转率是可行的，这一点至今仍是Trader Joe's商业模式的核心。

Of course, you can use small footprint stores to have a very large turnover, which lasts to this day in the economics of Trader Joe's.

当时这又是一个非常反直觉的举措，因为其他所有超市零售商，包括他之前的雇主Pronto Markets，都在试图削减人力成本，以在这样一个压力巨大的行业中生存——一方面，品牌方给的利润微薄，不断施压；另一方面，人力成本也在不断上升。

It was again a very counterintuitive move at the time, where all the other grocery retailers, including his former employer, Pronto Markets, were looking to squeeze labor costs in order to basically survive in what was a very high pressure business on one side, obviously not getting much from the brands and getting squeezed by the brands and on the other, of course, by labor costs.

所以其他人全都致力于降低人力成本。

So everybody else was in the business of reducing that labor cost.

当然，这会导致大量人员流动和其他一些间接成本，而他则试图从根本上改变这一切。

And of course, that causes a lot of turnover and a lot of other, let's call them indirect costs, he sets out to basically do that all different.

他支付的工资远高于竞争对手，这让他能够吸引并留住最优秀的员工，从而提供更高水平的服务。

And he starts paying very high wages relative to competition that allows him to get the best employees to keep them to basically be able to run a much higher service business.

于是，他将寻找高利润品类作为自己的挑战，以此来让整体财务模型得以运转。

And he made it a bit his challenge then to find, let's say, high margin categories that he could sell to basically make the numbers work.

这与当时市场上几乎所有其他企业的做法都截然不同。

So it's a very different approach from basically everybody else in the market at the time.

我不确定他们如今每天的具体做法与过去有何不同，也不知道最初的企业精神还保留了多少。

And I do think I don't know what it is that they do day to day versus the others, and I don't know how much of this original ethos survives.

你可以想象，如果你一开始就专注于高利润品类，并能获得可以高溢价销售的产品，那么整个商业模式的运作方式显然与被迫参与价格战、受制于全国性品牌和快消品品牌采购权动态的情况大不相同。

You can imagine that if you start with looking at getting into high margin categories and being able to get product that you can price with a good margin, then the ability to play a very different game in the entire business model is obviously very different than when you're having to be subject to price matching and the buying power dynamics that happen with national brands and CPG brands.

最终，这也是一个非常引人入胜的创始人故事：他并非从一开始就构想出这个点子，而是在一家企业工作期间，洞察了行业运作的逻辑，理解了为何原有模式行不通，随后通过收购一家企业，创立了这家始终保持私有、利润丰厚的公司，直到多年后将其出售给奥乐齐。

In the end, it's also a super fascinating founder story where you don't deal with someone who came up with this idea from the start, but rather worked in a business, understood the dynamics, understood why it didn't work, and essentially founded this business through a buyout and a business that he was able to keep private and make very profitable until he sold the business to Aldi much later in time.

每当我查看美国超市的损益表时，总会惊讶于它们的利润率竟然如此之低。

It always strikes me when you look at the P and L of a supermarket in The US, the margins are incredibly thin.

这些企业每在杂货店消费100美元，平均只能赚取3到4美元。

They're businesses that for every $100 you spend at a grocery store, they probably keep 3 to $4 on average.

杂货店提高资本回报率有两种方式。

There's two ways for grocery stores to drive the returns on capital.

要么提高库存周转率，要么提高利润率。

It's either to have more turnover on their inventory or to have higher margins.

因此，Trader Joe's似乎采取了一种非常明确的策略：减少SKU数量，提高周转率。

And so Trader Joe's, it seems, has had this very intentional strategy to have less SKUs and more turnover.

我们能谈谈私有品牌的发展吗？为什么他们能成功实施这一策略？其关键驱动因素是什么？

Can we talk about the evolution of private label and why they've been so successful in implementing that strategy and what were the key drivers of it?

如果从更宏观的角度来看，如今美国任何一家大型杂货零售商都拥有大量的促销预算，这些预算主要来自大型品牌方，远超其EBITDA利润率。

If you put it in perspective, any large grocery retailer you'd look at in The US today has trade marketing budgets, which they essentially receive from the large brands that far exceed their EBITDA margins.

他们极度依赖促销资金来维持其商业模式。

They are very, very dependent on trade marketing money to make their business model work.

回溯到私有品牌这一创新的起源，有趣的是，当Joe在那个时代——我认为是六十年代末到七十年代初——开始构想后来成为Trader Joe's的理念时，他回到了零售业的本源，这个词源自法语，意思是‘从大块中切下一小部分’。

To step back indeed at the innovation that was private brand, interestingly enough, when Joe was at the time, and I think the time was late sixties, early seventies, thinking about the concept of what then became Trader Joe's, he went back to the origin of the world retail, which came from the French word, basically means to cut a small piece from a larger one.

本质上是批量采购产品，然后进行包装，直接销售给终端消费者。

Essentially to buy wholesale and buy the product and then package it, sell it to end consumers.

这显然与大批量采购已经包装好的品牌产品大不相同。

Obviously very different than buying wholesale a whole bunch of already packaged branded products.

当时，另一个幸运的契机也让他不仅对推动Trader Joe's的商业模式产生兴趣，也让他明确了目标客户群——波音747飞机，我认为是在70年代初推出的，使得前往欧洲旅行变得非常便宜和便捷。

And at that time, I guess the other fortuitous circumstance, which certainly turned him on to not only the business model that would power Trader Joe's, but also to the target market, was that the Boeing seven forty seven, which I think was launched also in the early 70s, made it really cheap and easy to travel to Europe.

这意味着消费者去欧洲度假、开阔眼界对中产阶级来说变得更加容易。

So that meant both for consumers to go and have vacations and be well traveled was a lot more accessible to middle class.

但在那之前，情况并非如此。

That certainly wasn't the case before.

同时，采购人员直接前往欧洲，与莫扎里拉奶酪生产商或法国葡萄酒供应商接洽采购，也变得切实可行。

But also then to have buyers going directly to Europe to meet with the makers of the mozzarella cheese that are looking to buy or the French wine that they're looking to source became much more of a feasible option.

于是，他真正采纳了这样一个理念：我要成为一名真正的零售商。

So he really took that idea of, hey, I'm going to become a genuine retailer.

我要亲自去世界各地，采购最优质的产品。

I'm going to just go and buy the best stuff from wherever it's made.

我要成为顾客的采购代理，而不是从品牌那里赚钱。

And I'm going to become a buying agent for customers as opposed to make money from brands.

所以我要从顾客身上赚钱。

So I'm going to make money from customers.

我不会从品牌那里拿钱，因为我已经看透了这套把戏。

I'm not going to take money from brands because I've seen that game.

这很难搞。

It's a tough one.

你会被夹在中间，对这些品牌产生依赖。

You get squeezed in the middle, you become dependent on these brands.

所以他决心去寻找物美价廉的最好商品。

So he really sets out to say, I'm going to go find the best for the best price.

我会不计利润地进行测试。

I'm going to test it irrespective of margin.

我只会挑选我认为最畅销的产品。

I'm just going to pick what I think will sell the best.

这将使我比任何经过漫长价值链的商品更具竞争力，因为当这些商品最终到达消费者手中时，不仅增加了大量成本，而且我认为也严重偏离了这种高度手工化、注重采购的思维方式。

And that will make me much more competitive than anything that goes through a long value chain that by the time it gets to the consumer, not only adds a whole bunch of costs, but I think gets quite divorced from this focus, a very artisanal way of thinking about buying.

因此，拥有对品类了如指掌、痴迷于寻找最佳产品来源的采购人员。

So having buyers that were experts in the category and obsessed with finding the best source for the product.

我认为现在或许是个好时机，来谈谈美国杂货市场与欧洲市场的差异，因为它们的发展路径截然不同。

I think it's maybe a good opportunity to talk about the difference in The US grocery market versus Europe because they have evolved quite differently.

在美国，杂货市场主要由克罗格、沃尔玛主导，部分由好市多，以及正在努力进入市场的亚马逊占据。

In The US, it's kind of dominated by Kroger, by Walmart, to an extent Costco, and Amazon trying to have a presence.

我知道在欧洲，低价折扣店的概念非常普遍。

I know the concept of hard discounters is prolific in Europe.

你能解释一下什么是低价折扣店吗？帮助我们的美国观众更好地理解全球杂货销售的方式。

Can you explain what a hard discounter is and help our American audience to better appreciate how groceries are sold throughout the world?

这段历史确实很重要，我认为地理因素在这里也起到了作用。

The history here is certainly important, and I do think that geography probably plays a role here.

正如你所知，在欧洲，你面对的是人口密度高得多的地区。

So as you know, in Europe, you're dealing with much more dense populations.

在欧洲，零售商要触达一个市场或全国市场，显然比在美国更容易。

The ability to reach a market or a national market is certainly something much easier for a retailer to do than what you have in The US.

在美国，由于地理距离的因素，从东海岸向西海岸供货，随着时间推移，使得在全国各地设立配送中心成为可能，相应的零售杂货连锁店也围绕这些配送点发展起来。

In The US, just by the nature of physical distance, being able to supply from the East Coast to the West Coast, certainly over time made it more feasible to have distribution centers that are all over the country, respective retail grocery chains that grow up around those distribution points.

在欧洲，由于距离较短，我认为零售商要实现全国范围覆盖，在大多数国家显然要容易得多。

In Europe, because the distances are smaller, and I think the ability for a retailer then to have nationwide coverage is obviously much easier in most countries.

在大多数这些国家，零售环境变得更加集中。

In most of these countries, these retail environments became a lot more consolidated.

在欧洲，你面对的是一个指数——我记不清具体名称了，但它本质上衡量了这些杂货市场的零售集中度。

So in Europe, you're dealing with, and there's an index, I forget specifically the name of it, but essentially measures the concentration of retail in these grocery markets.

在欧洲，我认为瑞士是集中度最高的国家之一，前两大零售商几乎占据了90%的市场份额。

In Europe, I think Switzerland is one of the most concentrated and essentially the top one, two players have something like 90% of the markets.

在大多数欧洲市场，集中度大约在50%到60%之间。

In most European markets, that is more 50%, 60%.

但通常会有一家、两家或三家主要企业共同分享市场。

But you do have one, two, three players that essentially share the market.

它们规模庞大，能够大规模生产自己的自有品牌。

They're very large and they have the scale to then produce their own private label at scale.

我认为，在美国，这种格局非常不同，而且至今依然如此，因为美国市场更加分散，品牌相对于零售商来说要大得多。

I think that dynamic was very different and still is very different in The US, where the market is far more fragmented and where the brands themselves relative to the grocers are far larger.

这可能与此有关。

That may well have had something to do with it.

欧洲杂货零售中自有品牌的占比要高得多。

The percentage of private brand in European grocery retail is far higher.

在大多数零售商中，这一比例远超40%，而我认为在美国，这一比例最多也就只有十几到二十出头。

It's well over 40% in most retailers where I think in The States, it's still in the teens or in the 20s at best.

在这种环境下，奥乐齐和利德尔当时观察到，如果我们只需围绕最少数量的SKU优化门店，并且不投入大量资金用于门店的实际零售设施，比如家具、照明以及所有那些所谓的‘展示性’部分。

In that environment, Aldi and Lidl at the time making this observation that, hey, if we just optimize the store around a minimum number of SKUs and we don't deal with the whole investment in the actual retail of the store, meaning furniture and lighting and all of the, let's say, the show part of it.

他们最初的做法几乎类似于好市多的仓库模式。

And they essentially started with what looked like almost like Costco warehouses.

美国观众对这种模式会很熟悉。

The American audience would be familiar with that.

这实际上正是Costco在自己的模式中所做的事情，他们本质上是在说：我不愿意在那些不为顾客增加价值的东西上花太多钱。

And it's actually essentially what Costco is doing themselves with their concept, essentially saying, hey, I'm not going to spend much money on the stuff that doesn't add value to customers.

我会挑选少数几款产品，专注于以最优价格提供最好的产品。

I'm going to pick just a few products that I'm going to focus on getting the best product for the best price.

我会把所有节省下来的成本都投入到产品的定价中。

And I'm going to put all those savings into the cost, into the price of the product.

这样就能以更低的价格提供更优质的产品，卖给消费者。

And that's going to make for a much better quality at a lower price that I can sell to consumers.

当然，这种模式的权衡是选择更少，通常每种产品只有一两种选择，而不是几十种；在美国的超市里，你甚至会看到一整面墙的各种酸奶选择。

And then the trade off, of course, is that you have fewer choices, typically only one or two choices of the product as opposed to dozens or sometimes in US supermarkets, you'd see a full wall of different yogurt choices.

我认为，在硬折扣店中，这种情况当然大大减少，这确实节省了人力和处理更少产品所带来的成本。

I think that of course is much reduced in a hard discounter that definitely saves on labor and on handling what is a far smaller set of products.

此外，甚至直接以产品进店时的原包装出售，省去了将产品取下并摆上货架的人工成本。

Also, even selling them out of the actual box that they come into the store without then the labor of taking it and arranging it on the shelf.

因此，这种模式通过大幅减少产品种类，直接与制造商合作，中间没有品牌商介入，也没有为争夺货架空间而投入营销费用，从而实现了多项成本节约。

So quite a few savings in a model that operates a much more reduced set of products that are made directly with the manufacturers, so with no brand sitting in the middle and also no marketing money competing for shelf space.

你之前提到过促销支出，我认为对于像你这样的行业参与者来说，这个概念显然是显而易见的。

You made reference earlier to trade spend, and I think that that's a concept that, for industry participants like yourself, is obviously readily apparent.

但对于那些在商店里逛的消费者来说，他们未必理解促销支出是如何运作的，以及它如何影响实体杂货店的盈利能力。

But for people that walk the stores, they don't necessarily understand how that works and how it contributes to the profitability of a brick and mortar grocery store.

你能再多谈谈关于这些上架费或促销支出的不同策略吗？

Can you talk a little bit more about the differing strategies on those slotting fees or trade spend as they're referred to?

简而言之，任何大型消费品公司都会与其产品挂钩，通过协议约定以特定销量销售某条产品线，并为此预留一定比例的资金用于该产品的推广。

In a nutshell, any large consumer product goods company would associate and accompany their products in terms of a deal that they make to sell a certain product line in a certain volume with a certain percentage of money that will just be earmarked towards promotion of that product.

无论是直接给予产品折扣，还是由商店自身进行各种营销推广来突出该产品，这些措施本质上都是为了促进销售。

Whether that goes into actual discounts on the product or that goes into highlighting that product in various marketing that the store itself does, That all is basically there to promote the product.

这是任何杂货零售商与品牌方达成财务协议时的一部分内容。

It comes as part of the financial arrangements that any grocery retailer makes with a brand.

这可能是与品牌方谈判中最重要、最有趣的部分之一。

And it's probably one of the largest and most interesting parts of the negotiation with the brand.

但它也要求零售商必须将该产品摆放在货架的特定位置，并在一年中的某些周进行促销，具体执行程度如何。

But it does oblige the retailer to indeed put that product in a certain position on the shelf, to have it on promotion in certain weeks of the year, the degree to which it does so.

所有这些都由这笔营销支出覆盖。

And all of that is all covered by this marketing spend.

换句话说，简而言之，你可以认为在这种商业关系中，快消品公司实际上是把零售商当作自己产品的分销渠道。

In a way, in a nutshell, you could argue that in this business relationship, the consumer product goods companies are using retailers as distributors of their product.

他们本质上是为曝光付费，而不是单纯依赖其他方式。

And essentially, they pay for play as opposed to necessarily.

我认为这正是Trader Joe's的模式，以及你看Aldi和Lidl的做法时有趣的地方，因为他们根本不会这么做。

I think that's maybe where the Trader Joe's model, and indeed, if you look at what Aldi and Lidl do, is interesting because they basically say, well, we're going to do none of that.

我们不会成为别人产品的分销商。

We're not going to be a distributor of other people's products.

你本质上是在拍卖货架空间，向消费者提供远超他们实际能有效选择的数量。

You're basically auctioning off shelf space and you're presenting the consumer with far more choices than I think they can even usefully make.

我认为有一项著名研究证明，当产品选择超过六种时，消费者做出决定的难度会大大增加。

I think there's a famous study that essentially proves that anything more than six choices in a product makes it far harder to choose.

我认为，硬折扣零售商和Trader Joe's正是意识到这一点，于是决定为消费者着想：我们不会用过多的选择让他们感到困扰，而是只挑选性价比最高、价格最低的产品，或许提供一到两个品质层级、口味或选择。

I think that's where the hard discounters and the Trader Joe's basically said, hey, we're going to make this good for the consumer, meaning we're not going to overwhelm them with choice, we're just going to pick best quality for the lowest price, perhaps give one or two quality tiers or flavors or choices in that sense.

但我们不会把营销预算叠加到产品和价格上。

But we're not going to overload the product and the price with essentially what is marketing budget.

你看到的是，这些自有品牌产品，尤其是Lidl、Aldi和Trader Joe's能够做到的是，提供与高端品牌相同质量标准的产品，但价格却低得多，因为他们完全跳过了整个营销环节。

What you see is that these private brand products and certainly what Lidl and Aldi and Trader Joe's have been able to do is to supply products of the same quality benchmark that is coming in at a far lower price because they're essentially skipping that whole marketing element of it.

当然，他们的门店运营模式也高效得多，所需人力更少，因为他们上架的SKU更少，零售环境本身也更少依赖人力。

Of course, also their store model is far more efficient to operate, so it requires far less labor to operate because they put fewer SKUs on the shelf and the retail environment itself is far less labor intensive.

你提到的运营成本问题很有趣，我们之前没有花太多时间讨论他们如何节省运营开支。

The point you make around operating costs is interesting, and we haven't spent a lot of time talking about how they're able to save on their operations.

我们谈到了可以直接将托盘运到卖场、劳动力模式以及处理易腐品这些方面。

We talked about the idea that you can bring pallets onto the store floor, labor model, dealing with perishables.

但Trader Joe's在门店运营方式上是否有某种独特之处，使他们能将节省的成本重新投入，为顾客提供更低的价格？

But is there anything inherently different about the way that Trader Joe's operates their stores that allows them to reinvest those savings back into lower prices for their customers?

人力成本无疑是最大的一项。

Labor is certainly the big one.

另一项关键因素是营销。

The other big one is marketing.

Trader Joe's 令人钦佩地打造了一个可能是零售业中最强大的品牌，而且从未进行过广告宣传。

Trader Joe's admirably have built a brand that is probably one of the strongest brands in retail without any advertising.

他们从未做过电视广告。

So they've not done TV advertising.

他们最接近传统广告的做法是他们的‘无畏传单’，通过邮寄直接发送给顾客。

The closest they've come to do traditional advertising is their fearless flyer, direct marketing that is just sent by mail to customers.

我想他们做过一些广播广告。

I think they've done a little bit of radio ads.

但他们本质上认为，品牌体验发生在店内。

But they've essentially said the brand experience happens in the store.

我们要把所有想传达给消费者、让他们对我们的品牌产生的感受，都体现在店内。

We're going to transmit everything we want to say and consumers to feel about our brand in the store.

我们要省去整个营销开支，因为我们只是要做出如此出色的产品，而且他们对什么是好产品设定了极高的标准。

And we're going to skip the whole expense of marketing because we're just going to make such good products and they put a really high hurdle on what is a good product.

他们始终坚持，自己的产品在该品类中价格最低、口味更优，并且有鲜明的立场。

They always insist that it is the lowest price by far in that category, that it has a superior flavor, that it has a point of view.

实际上，像好市多一样，他们对产品的要求标准也非常高。

Actually, like Costco, they do have a very high bench for what the product should be.

商店本身在概念设计上也比大多数其他商店更随意、更有趣。

The store itself is also in concept designed to be a lot less formal and a lot more fun than most other stores are.

对他们来说，这本质上就是营销。

And essentially, that for them is marketing.

因此，他们跳过了这一大笔开支，而这对大多数杂货店来说，除了人工成本外是非常大的一笔开销。

So they skip that entire cost line, which is of course a very big one in addition to labor for most grocery stores.

如果你考虑一下他们的购物篮组合，消费者在购买方式上与传统杂货店有何不同？

If you think about the mix of basket, does it compare differently to a traditional grocer in the way that their consumers shop it?

我认为，这正是我今天所称的大众市场超市或杂货零售商与Trader Joe's之间的区别。

I think that is the difference between certainly what I'd call today a mass market supermarket or grocery retailer and Trader Joe's.

归根结底，Trader Joe's 仍然是一个利基零售模式。

At the end of the day, Trader Joe's is still a niche retail format.

我认为有些人或许可以只靠Trader Joe's，或者主要以Trader Joe's作为他们唯一的杂货店来生活。

I think there are people that perhaps can live off of just Trader Joe's or mainly Trader Joe's as their only grocery store.

但我认为对大多数人来说，Trader Joe's 是他们额外使用的第二或第三家杂货店，用于购买那些精致食品、奶酪、特殊风味以及只有 Trader Joe's 擅长制作的产品，这些产品甚至能很好地与传统杂货店的商品竞争。

But I think for most people, Trader Joe's is an additional second or third grocery store that they use for getting the delicacies, the cheeses, the special flavors, the products that only Trader Joe's makes so well and that actually competes so well with what they could alternatively find in grocery stores.

我认为大多数消费者不会在 Trader Joe's 进行所谓的‘完整购物篮’采购，比如日常所需的乳制品和肉类等所有商品。

I think most consumers wouldn't do what is called a full basket shop at Trader Joe's, everything from their daily consumption of dairy and meats, etc.

我认为相对于普通杂货店来说，它仍然是一个细分概念。

I do think that it is still a niche concept relative to a general grocery store.

也许这是一个很好的契机，来谈谈疫情对消费者购物方式的影响。

Maybe this is a good segue to talk about the impact of the pandemic on the way that consumers shop grocery.

我们看到，所有上市的杂货企业都出现了利润率上升、每平方英尺销售额增长，以及顾客购物方式发生了一些变化。

What we've seen across publicly traded grocery businesses is that margins have expanded, sales per square foot have increased, and the way that customers shop have changed a bit.

因此，一个值得探讨的有趣话题是，杂货配送对 Trader Joe's、Aldi、Lidl、Kroger 等企业的影响，以及像 Ocado 这类公司的冲击。

And so maybe one of the things that would be interesting to talk about is just the way that grocery delivery impacts potentially Trader Joe's, Aldi, Lidl, Kroger, the impact of a business like Ocado.

杂货行业目前尤其是一个充满活力的领域。

Grocery in particular is a very dynamic space right now.

因此，我很想听听那些影响 Trader Joe's 进入壁垒和核心竞争力的趋势。

And so I'd kinda love to hear some of the themes that are impacting Trader Joe's barriers to entry and their core competencies.

我觉得这是一个非常有趣的讨论。

I think that's a really fun discussion.

实际上，你可能还记得，虽然我不太记得具体是什么时候，但不久前特易购曾明确表示：我们就不做线上业务了。

Actually, you may recall, and I forget exactly when this was, but it was a little while back that I think Trader Joe's essentially declared, hey, we're just not going to do online.

如果你想买特易购的产品，就必须亲自来我们的门店。

If you want Trader Joe's, you have to come to our store.

线上购物这种形式，我们甚至不会尝试，哪怕与其他第三方平台合作，就像许多其他杂货店那样。

And online is not something that we'll even try to do even in partnership with a third party like many other grocery stores do.

如果你看看他们的商业模式，一般来说，如果你拥有实体零售业务，想要拓展线上业务，你就必须建立一个几乎平行的业务体系，因为线上和从仓库直接配送的一切——从货物接收方式到按订单拣货的方式——都与服务实体门店网络截然不同。在实体门店中，货物以托盘形式送达，再以托盘运送到门店，然后上架、拆箱、摆放到货架上，但显然不会被拆分成单个订单。

If you look at their business model and actually in general, if you have physical retail, in order to build an online component of that, you essentially have to build almost a parallel business because everything about online and about direct delivery from the warehouse, everything from the way you receive goods to the way you pick them into orders like you do for an online store is very different than what you have to do in order to serve a network of physical stores where you receive things on pallets, they get sent to the store in pallets, They get, of course, shelved and broken down and put into shelves, but obviously not baked into individual orders.

所以，线上业务的方方面面都完全不同。

So everything about online is different.

如果你是一家实体门店，想自己开展线上业务，本质上就必须建立一套并行的运营体系。

If you are a physical store and you want to do your own online operation, you essentially have to build a parallel operation to do so.

当然，也可以选择与第三方合作等方式。

There are, of course, options to partner with third parties and such.

但撇开这一点不谈，我认为对于任何拥有实体门店的杂货店来说，要同时成功运营线上业务并实现双线盈利，是极其困难的。

But leaving that aside, I think it's actually very difficult for any grocery store that has a physical footprint to do their own online business and be able to operate the two profitably side by side.

对于Trader Joe's来说尤其如此，尤其是考虑到他们对门店体验的重视——他们所做的一切都紧密围绕着你所体验、所见、所感，以及你在收银台与店员之间的交流或不交流。

Certainly for Trader Joe's, especially given not only the value and the emphasis they put on the store experience, everything that they do is so tied into, let's say, what you experience, see, feel, the conversations you have or don't with the folks at the checkout counter.

他们的差异化优势就在于门店体验。

Their differentiation sits in the store experience.

因此，如果他们试图并行支持线上模式，这不仅违背了其商业优势的核心，而且实际上极其难以实现，还会彻底破坏他们现有的运营效率。

So I think for them to then concede to essentially try to support an online model in parallel to that not only goes counter to the core of their advantage as a business, but it's actually super difficult to do and would completely destroy their operational efficiency that they have.

所以我认为这非常合理。

So I think it makes a lot of sense.

而且我认为，我不应指望他们，也不应指望其他硬折扣零售商去自建线上业务，因为从运营角度来看，根本不可能通过建立一个并行的独立运营模式来维持同样的低价。

And I think I wouldn't expect them or in fact, of the hard discounters to build their own online capability because from an operational perspective, there's just no way to be able to provide the same low price and to do that online by building essentially a separate operational model in parallel.

如果你必须预测未来五到十年这里的发展趋势，你会看到这些传统杂货系统拥有庞大的门店网络、惊人的平方英尺面积和海量库存。

If you had to opine on how things evolve over the next five to ten years here, You have these legacy grocery systems which have massive store footprints, incredible amounts of square footage, incredible amounts of inventory.

因此，假设你如果不让顾客亲自逛货架，或许能更高效地运营门店，但你又不得不承担额外的成本，比如人力、损耗——这一点我们之前还没讨论过——以及运营这些业务所涉及的所有其他成本。

And so presumably, you can run a more efficient store if you don't open it up to your consumers to walk the shelves, but then you have to introduce the incremental costs associated with staffing, with shrinkage, which is something that we haven't really spoken about, all the costs associated with running these businesses.

对于像Trader Joe's这样的公司来说，似乎我们正处在一个非常有趣的转折点，它们可以继续专注于价格优势。

It seems like we're at a pretty interesting pivot point for someone like Trader Joe's, which can continue to lean into price.

消费者会如何选择他们购物的地点和方式呢？

How do consumers stray towards where and how they're going to shop?

我认为这里存在一个分岔路口，要么让购物体验真正独特而愉快。

I do see that there's a fork in the road of sorts where you either make that shopping experience truly unique and enjoyable.

你甚至可以更进一步，为消费者提供晚餐解决方案，比如Wegmans所做的那样。

You may even go far more into providing a solution for dinner for your consumers, like for example, Wegmans does.

我认为，在美国杂货市场中，Wegmans是我仅次于Trader Joe's的最爱企业。

I think second to Trader Joe's is probably my next favorite business, certainly in The US grocery landscape.

Wegmans基本上已经采纳了这个理念。

Wegmans has basically taken that idea.

他们显然是一个提供自有品牌和知名品牌商品的全方位超市。

They are obviously a full service supermarket grocery store with A brands and their own private label brands.

但重要的是，他们进行了大量投入，我认为他们拥有一个非常可持续的独特优势，即为消费者提供即食餐食解决方案。

But importantly, they've invested and I think they have a unique differentiation, which I think is very sustainable in essentially providing prepared meal solutions for their consumers.

你走进任何一家Wegmans，商店的前三分之一区域都是各种你所能想到的菜系的丰富选择，随时可以买回去当晚餐。

So you walk into any Wegmans and the first third of the store is just an amazing array of all kinds of choices of any cuisine you can think of that you can pick up for dinner.

看看他们的鱼类和寿司，新鲜程度堪比你家附近任何一家寿司店。

You look at their fish and their sushi and it's as fresh as it would be from your sushi store around the corner.

从这个角度来看，我认为超市零售业的未来在于成为提供即食餐食的便捷一站式购物场所，顾客可以随手买走并立即享用。

From that perspective, I do think there's a future for grocery retail in becoming indeed a quick stop of a ready meal that you could pick up and essentially serve right away.

如果你在这一点上投入，并注重顾客在店内的感官体验和愉悦感，那么比如走进Wegmans的蔬果区，就会是一种享受，因为那里有太多值得学习的东西。

And let's say if you invest in that and in the sensorial experience of being in the store and being delighted, certainly, for example, if you go into Wegmans, being in their produce section is a joy just because there's just so much even to learn.

他们设有展板，向你解释西葫芦椒和哈拉佩纽辣椒的区别，或者各种香草的种类。

They have boards in which they explain to you the difference between a serrano and a jalapeno pepper or the different kinds of herbs there are.

他们让这一切变得有趣，就像Trader Joe's那样。

They just make it all fun the same way that Trader Joe's does.

我认为这种体验将始终具有吸引力，因为归根结底，在线上购物、尤其是大众市场和盈利层面，很难复制那种走进Wegmans或Trader Joe's这样的商店、随手拿走一份即食餐食的即时感。

And I think that will always be appealing because at the end of the day, online, certainly when it comes to mass market and when it comes to profitability, I think it's very hard to replicate that kind of immediacy that you can have by just walking into a store like a Wegmans or a Trader Joe's and picking up a prepared meal.

因此，我认为这对实体零售的未来来说是一条非常有吸引力的路径。

So I do see that's a very appealing route to the future for physical retail.

我认为在线购物很难同时做好这两方面并实现盈利。

I think for online, because as I described, it's very hard to do the two side by sides very well and profitably.

我想我在这里是有偏见的。

And I guess I am biased here.

这是我要说明的。

That's the disclaimer.

但我确实认为，打造一个专注于提供最佳体验的纯线上杂货店，作为线上服务商，才是让这个业务变得良好且盈利的唯一途径。

But I do think that building then an online grocery store, a pure play that is dedicated to providing the best experience that it can, being an online provider, is the only way to actually make that business a good one and a profitable one.

我认为中间肯定会出现各种解决方案。

I think there are definitely going to be all kinds of solutions in between.

如今你看到杂货店正与Instacart、DoorDash等公司合作来完成配送部分。

You see today the grocery stores partnering with the Instacart, the DoorDashes of the world to do the delivery part.

但我并不确定这种模式在五到十年后是否可持续。

But I'm not sure that looking five, ten years out is sustainable.

所以，我认为未来将出现一个分岔路口，要么是纯线上平台，要么像克罗格这样的大型企业如今正在其线上业务上投入巨额资本，着眼于长期发展。

So, I do think that there's going to be a bit of a fork in the road and there'll be pure plays or let's say branches of large businesses like Kroger does today investing in their online businesses with a huge capital expense and a long term horizon.

我认为还有一点需要说明，虽然显而易见，但很重要：大多数消费者都会习惯性地光顾一家、两家甚至更多的杂货店，无论是在每周还是每月的购物中。

I think maybe the other thing to state, and it's obvious, but it's important to remember, most consumers shop one or two or even more grocery stores habitually, whether that's in the week or in the month.

所以我并不认为这是零和博弈。

So I don't see it as a zero sum.

我确实认为，消费者会喜欢亲自去店里挑选一些商品，他们享受这种体验，或者他们赶时间要赶紧准备晚餐，这时候在线下单根本不可行。

I do actually think that there'll be things that consumers will like to pick up in the store and they'll enjoy doing so, or they'll be in a rush to get dinner on the table and then ordering it online is not an option.

但另一方面，那些不太吸引人、比较单调的购物环节，其实更适合像我们今天在亚马逊上订购其他商品那样完成。

But then there's also the other part where the less appealing, maybe more monotone part of grocery shopping is far better done like we do today with everything else that we order on Amazon.

我们更愿意通过手机点几下就下单，而不是花时间在大型仓库里一件件挑选、装进购物车、再搬回家，因为这种过程根本没什么乐趣。

We'd rather do it by ordering in a few clicks on your phone and not spending the time essentially picking from a large warehouse and putting everything in a basket and carrying it home when that provides no particular joy to do so.

有趣的是，谈到消费零售时，亚马逊通常在对话开始的前五分钟就会被提及。

It's funny when it comes to consumer retail, typically Amazon comes up in the first five minutes of a conversation.

但尽管亚马逊收购了全食超市，Trader Joe's 依然持续增长，很可能还在扩大市场份额，尽管作为一家私营公司，我们无法确定这一点。

But despite the fact that Amazon acquired Whole Foods, Trader Joe's has continued to grow and most likely gain market share, although as a private company, we can't be certain.

是什么让 Trader Joe's 能够有效应对亚马逊进军全食超市的挑战？

What has differentiated them from the ability to fight back against Amazon's entry into Whole Foods?

这是不同的客户群体，但我认为两者之间应该有一些重叠。

It's kind of a different customer, but I presume there is some overlap.

全食超市的365品牌在自有品牌方面非常强大，但Trader Joe's似乎依然能够留住顾客并持续扩大市场份额。

The three sixty five brand at Whole Foods is incredibly strong on private label, but Trader Joe's seems to be able to continue to keep customers and gain share.

你认为他们的商业模式中有什么特别之处，让他们能享有这种优势或特权？

Is there anything about the business model you think that affords them that luxury or privilege?

我认为最值得学习和钦佩的Trader Joe's之处，在于他们的采购团队。

The most important thing that I think there is to learn and to admire about Trader Joe's is their buying organization.

从一开始，他们就决心聘请专注于特定产品或产品类别的顶尖采购人员，并赋予他们成为业内最佳的条件——飞往欧洲或任何需要的地方，寻找最好的商品，近乎痴迷地钻研产品的每一个细节，以及可能的下一个趋势或突破点，包括营养、法规、分销和包装。

From the beginning, they've set out to say, Hey, we're going to get the best buyers dedicated to a particular product or product category, and we're going to enable them to be the best in the business, fly to Europe or wherever they need to go to find the best stuff, be virtually obsessed with all the nuances of that product and what might be the next big trend or the next big thing, the nutrition, the regulation, the distribution, the packaging around it.

如果你将这种对产品的极致专注，与较少的产品种类结合起来，让采购人员能全身心投入某一款产品，我认为你就能获得远超普通采购员的卓越产品品质与价格比——那些采购员往往要同时应对几十种产品，还要与众多零售合作伙伴打交道。

If you take that product obsession and then you're able to focus a buyer when you're not dealing with so many products on really obsessing about a product, I think you get a tremendously different product quality and price ratio than you would if you're just a buyer looking across dozens of products dealing with retail partners, etc.

我这么说部分是基于我所读到的关于Trader Joe's的资料，但据称，他们经常需要花六个月以上的时间，与供应商共同打磨产品和配方，并建立合作方式。

I say this a bit based on what I've read about Trader Joe's, but for them, apparently, it's not uncommon to spend six months plus to work with a vendor and figure out the actual product and product formulation and set up a way of working together.

而价格谈判往往只需十分钟，因为他们不仅深入挖掘了最佳的合作伙伴和供应商，还建立了高度紧密的联系——这种关系与普通超市采购员那种疏远、 Arms-length的模式截然不同，对他们而言，这种关系非常亲密，因为每一个供应商都得到了极大的关注。

Whereas the price negotiation is a ten minute discussion because they're so deep into not only finding the best partners and the best vendors, but then they get so interconnected, if you will, that that relationship, which is far more arm's length and I think is far more distant for many other buyers in a typical grocery retail store, is a very intimate one because there's a lot of attention on that one particular vendor.

我不知道这个比例是多少。

I don't know what the ratio is.

我不知道一个采购员负责多少这样的供应商，但我猜肯定比其他任何商店，包括全食超市，要少得多。

I don't know how many such vendors one buyer Trader Joe handles, but I'd assume it's far less than any other store, including Whole Foods.

所以我认为，归根结底，采购——比如选品、制定产品并确保你拥有市场上最好的产品——才是Trader Joe's的与众不同之处。

So I do think that buying at the end of the day and let's say formulating, picking product and making sure that you have the best there is, is what makes Trader Joe's stand out.

我看不出其他任何商店，包括全食超市，会做出这样的努力。

I don't see any other store, including Whole Foods, making that kind of effort.

也许Wegmans接近这一点，但同样，它们的运营模式非常不同，需要提供更丰富的商品种类、更多的选择，以及比Trader Joe's多得多的采购工作量。

Think maybe Wegmans comes close, but again, they operate a very different format where they have to provide far larger assortment with far more options and far more work, I think, for a buyer, at Whole Foods or at Wegmans than what Trader Joe's does.

我认为这种专注是他们的核心优势，我看不出有谁能在这方面超越他们。

I think that focus is essentially their forte and I don't see anybody beating them at that.

我们谈过促销支出，这是杂货店特有的。

We talked about trade spend, is unique to grocery stores.

我想再花点时间思考一下另一个问题，那就是损耗，它主要涵盖易腐商品的损失和变质。

The other one I want to spend a little bit of time on thinking through is shrinkage, which essentially covers loss of perishables and death.