2026年1月经济形势报告

您正在收听《高管视角》，这是会议委员会推出的播客节目。

You are listening to C Suite Perspectives, a podcast by the conference board.

欢迎收听《高管视角》，这是会议委员会的标志性系列节目。

Welcome to C Suite Perspectives, a signature series by the conference board.

我是埃琳·麦克劳克林，经济战略与金融中心的高级经济学家，也是本期节目的特邀主持人。

I'm Erin McLaughlin, a senior economist in the Economy Strategy and Finance Center and guest host of today's episode.

今天与我一同出席的是我们的首席经济学家达娜·彼得森。

Joining me today is our chief economist, Dana Peterson.

在今天的对话中，我们将讨论最新的美国消费者信心指数以及贸易相关议题。

And in today's conversation, we'll discuss the latest US consumer confidence index as well as trade.

我们首先会与达娜探讨消费者信心指数（CCI），然后我们会调换角色。

We'll start off talking with Dana about the CCI, and then we'll turn the tables.

所以，达娜，美国消费者在一月份是更自信了还是更不自信了？

So, Dana, were US consumers more or less confident in January?

与十二月相比，一月份的消费者信心低了很多。

Consumers were a lot less confident in January than they were in December.

而十二月我们确实进行了某种程度的上修，因此这两个月之间的差距相当大。

And December, we did have somewhat of an upward revision, and so the delta was quite large from the two months.

那么这是否符合过去几个月的整体趋势？

And so does this match the larger trend over the last few months?

自七月以来，消费者信心实际上一直在下降，而那之前是在2025年4月解放日暴跌后出现过一小段回升。

Consumer confidence has actually been falling since July, and that was after a little bit of a pickup following the drop we saw on Liberation Day in April 2025.

因此，总体来看，2025年全年乃至今年首月，消费者信心一直呈下降趋势。

So on balance, over the course of 2025 and even into the first month of this year, consumer confidence has been trending downward.

好的。

Okay.

除了解放日之外，去年秋季另一个重大事件是联邦政府停摆。

Now besides Liberation Day, the other big sort of moment this past fall was the federal government shutdown.

这对信心产生了怎样的影响？

How has confidence been impacted around that?

我们在十一月明显看到了这一点，当时受访者在停摆期间更加悲观，但之后悲观情绪有所缓解。

We saw we saw it very clearly in November where the respondents were much more pessimistic in November while the shutdown was going on, but less pessimistic.

你甚至可以说，十一月下旬shutdown结束后，情绪变得稍微乐观一些，因为shutdown让十一月分成了两段。

And you could even say somewhat a little bit more optimistic in the latter half of November after the shutdown because the shutdown kind of split November.

因此，我们确实观察到了不同的行为，并在十一月的报告中提到了这一点。

So we did see different behaviors, and we did note that in the November release.

好的。

Okay.

让我们深入探讨一下报告的一些细节。

Let's dive into some of the details of the report.

不同人口群体的信心是否有显著差异？

Were there any notable differences in confidence by demographic group?

实际上，一月份时，各收入水平、年龄组、甚至政治倾向和代际之间都没有明显差异，因为很多人喜欢比较代际差异。

So actually in January, there really were no differences across incomes, age groups, even political affiliation, and even generations because a lot of people like to compare generations.

对。

Right.

所有这些指标在一月份都出现了下滑。

All of those measures dipped or fell in January.

好的。

Okay.

那么消费者对当前形势有何看法？

Now what are consumers saying about the present situation?

是的，消费者表示，与12月相比，1月的当前形势更糟。

Yes, consumers are saying that the present situation is worse in January relative to December.

事实上，他们对商业状况和当前劳动力市场都更加担忧。

Indeed, they're more concerned about business conditions as well as the current labor market.

在这两项指标中，劳动力市场差异——即认为工作机会多与难找的人数之差——出现了下降。

And between those two measures, the labor market differential, which is the difference between people saying that jobs are plentiful versus hard to get, dropped.

这一降幅相对于当前商业状况的降幅更大。

That was the bigger drop relative to business conditions currently.

这很合理，因为企业正在减少招聘。

And that makes sense because companies are not hiring.

这是因为过去一年左右，他们一直深受不确定性困扰。

And that's because over the last year or so, they have been very preoccupied with uncertainty.

在不确定的环境中，企业不太可能做出大规模的招聘或裁员决策。

And amid an environment of uncertainty, companies are less likely to make big moves like hiring or firing.

裁员也受到限制，因为劳动力短缺仍然存在。

And the firing has been limited as well because there's still labor shortages.

我们之前提到的低招聘、低裁员的态势。

That low hire, low fire sentiment that we've heard about.

那么，消费者对未来六个月的预期是什么？

And so what are consumers telling us they're expecting six months into the future?

六个月后，消费者仍然对商业状况、劳动力市场以及他们的收入感到非常担忧。

Six months in the future, consumers are still very concerned about business conditions as well as the labor market and also their incomes.

有趣的是，此前收入预期一直相当乐观，但现在却有所减弱。

And it's interesting because incomes had been pretty buoyant in terms of expectations, but now they've weakened.

我认为这是因为消费者越来越担心，到2026年中期，劳动力市场状况是否还会对他们有利。

And I think that's because consumers are becoming even more and more concerned about whether or not labor market conditions are gonna be beneficial for them by mid twenty twenty six.

如今，通胀仍然相当顽固。

Now inflation has been still rather sticky.

我们如何看待消费者近期的通胀预期变化？

How do we think consumers' inflation expectations have changed recently?

在一月份，消费者的通胀预期出现分化。

In January, consumer inflation expectations were split.

因此，对未来十二个月的平均通胀预期上升了，但中位数进一步下降，并持续走低。

So the average inflation expectations for the next over the twelve month twelve months from now, the average inflation expectations twelve months from now rose, but the median fell further and continues to decline.

因此，我们仍然看到一些极端值拉高了均值，但通胀预期正在下降。

And so we're still having these outliers move the mean, but inflation expectations have been coming off.

尽管如此，与2024年关税实施前相比，它们仍然处于较高水平。

Nonetheless, they're still quite elevated relative to 2024 before tariffs came into play.

好的。

Okay.

这说得通。

That makes sense.

那么，股市和利率情况如何？

Now, what about stock market and interest rates?

一月份，消费者对股市的预期略低于十二月，但总体上仍处于较高水平。

In January, consumers' expectations for the stock market were slightly lower than December, but overall they're pretty high.

因此，消费者确实相信更好的日子即将到来，尤其是在股票市场方面。

And so consumers do believe that better days are coming, especially when it comes to equity markets.

关于利率，我们不清楚具体指的是哪种利率，但他们认为利率可能会比十二月时的预期略有下降，但总体上仍预期利率会保持高位。

With respect to interest rates, we don't know what rates are particularly referring to, but they do think that interest rates may decline a bit relative to what they thought in December, but they still overall expect interest rates to be high.

考虑到经济中出现了使价格维持高位的结构性变化，这一点也合乎情理。

And that's that also makes sense given the fact that there have been structural changes in the economy that are keeping prices elevated.

因此，美联储必须将利率维持在高于金融危机和疫情期间的水平。

And hence, the Federal Reserve Board must keep rates higher than what we saw during the great financial crisis and the pandemic.

因此，将高利率视为新常态实际上是合理的，我认为消费者也意识到了这一点。

And so higher interest rates as the new norm actually makes sense, and I think consumers are picking up on that.

那么，在价格高企的情况下，消费者是否仍认为通胀、政治和关税影响着经济？

And so with elevated prices, are consumers still citing inflation, politics, and tariffs as affecting the economy?

是的，他们确实这么认为。

Yes, they are.

事实上，价格以及对通货膨胀、石油和天然气、食品和能源、杂货的提及仍然非常高，是人们来信中提到的首要话题。

In fact, prices and references to inflation and oil and gas and food and energy and groceries, all of those still remain very elevated and are the number one topics that people are writing in about.

是的。

Yes.

他们仍然在谈论关税、贸易和政治，但我们也注意到，关于劳动力市场的评论增加了，而且这些评论的语境实际上是负面的。

They're still writing about tariffs and trade and politics, but also we noticed that there were more comments about labor markets, and the context of these were actually negative.

我们还观察到，关于健康和保险的提及有所增加，因此我们推测这涉及医疗保健和战争。

And we also did see an uptick in reference to health and insurance, so we're assuming that's health care and also war.

这两项提及在1月份有所上升。

Those two mentions rose a little bit over the course of January.

好的。

Okay.

那么，在这项调查中，消费者是否预计未来十二个月内会出现经济衰退？

Now are consumers anticipating a recession within the next twelve months in the survey?

我们需要四个指标来衡量这一点。

We gotta have four measures for that.

认为未来十二个月内某个时候会发生衰退的人比例略有下降，认为不太可能的人比例也下降了。

Those who are saying that a recession at some point over the next twelve months is somewhat likely edged downward, as did the share who said not likely.

然而，认为衰退非常可能发生的人比例回升了，而那些已经处于衰退中的人所占的微小比例也略有上升。

However, the share who said recession is very likely tick back up and a small percent the small percentage you say that were already in recession already crept higher.

因此，尽管大多数受访者认为‘ somewhat likely’，但变化趋势表明，一些原本认为‘不太可能’和‘somewhat likely’的人转向了‘非常可能’，或者已经处于衰退中。

So it seems while the bulk of the respondents say somewhat likely, the deltas suggest that some of those people who said not likely and somewhat likely fell into very likely and also were already in a recession.

那么在购买计划方面，商品方面有什么显著趋势吗？

Now in terms of buying plans, are there any notable trends for goods?

消费者在未来六个月购买大件商品的意愿更加谨慎。

Consumers are more cautious about buying big ticket items over the next six months.

因此，表示愿意购买大件商品的人在1月份相比12月有所减少，而表示‘可能’的人比例上升了。

And so those who are saying yes to buying big ticket items declined in January relative to December, and the percentage you said maybe rose.

表示‘不愿意’的人比例仅略微上升，真正变化的是人们从‘愿意’转向了‘可能’。

Those who said no was only slightly higher, so it's really people moving from yes to maybe.

因此，他们正在质疑自己的潜在购买行为。

So they're questioning their potential purchases.

再来看看具体细节，人们对购买新车或一般汽车的预期保持平稳。

And just looking at the details here, expectations for purchasing new cars or just autos in general were flat.

但当我们将新车和二手车分开来看时，人们仍然更倾向于购买二手车。

But when you split between new and used cars, people still prefer to buy used cars.

关于购买二手车的意愿持续逐月上升，而计划购买新车的人数则持续下降。

And that's that thought about buying used cars continues to climb month after month, whereas plans to buy a new car just continues to dip.

在购房方面，我们继续看到计划购房的人数在减少。

When it comes to home buying, we continue to see our retreat in those planning to purchase a home.

至于家中的物品，如白色家电，计划购买冰箱、洗碗机、家具和电视的人数有所下降。

And for things inside of the home, like white goods, plans to purchase refrigerators, dishwashers, furniture, and TVs decreased.

与此同时，购买电子产品的需求也有所下降，这有点令人惊讶，因为人们此前对购买这些产品表现出更高的兴趣。

Meanwhile, plans for buying electronics dipped, which is a little bit surprising because people have been more affine towards buying these things.

但消费者真正愿意购买的只有电子产品。

But the only thing that consumers are really willing to buy are electronics.

在电子产品中，智能手机是其中之一。

Among electronics are smartphones.

因此，消费者对智能手机的购买意愿持续上升。

So the smartphone confidence continues to rise in terms of their desire.

我也可能需要买一部新手机，因为我刚弄丢了我的手机。

I also may need to buy a smartphone because I just lost mine.

天哪。

Oh, goodness.

但这不是升级。

But it's not an upgrade.

我只是没有手机了。

It's just I don't have one.

是 replacements。

A replacement.

是 replacements。

A replacement.

但总体而言，尽管月度波动不断，消费者仍然在考虑购买二手车、家具、电视和智能手机。

But overall, in general, consumers, despite the gyrations from month to month, they are still thinking about buying used cars, furniture, televisions, and smartphones.

好的。

Okay.

在某种程度上都是必需品。

All necessities to an extent.

是的。

Yes.

现在是的。

Now yes.

服务方面有什么显著趋势吗？

Are there notable trends for services?

是的。

Yes.

关于服务，我们询问了他们未来六个月是否计划增加在服务上的支出？

For services, we asked, are they planning on spending more on services over the next six months?

这与商品略有不同。

So it's a little different from goods.

但即便如此，一月份的正面回答比例相比十二月有所下降，而‘可能’的回答比例上升了。

So but still, that was a little bit weaker in January relative to December, where those who said yes fell and those who said maybe increased.

但持否定态度的人数基本保持不变。

But those who said no is roughly unchanged.

因此，对于服务类消费，‘是’的回答也像商品一样转向了‘可能’。

So the yeses similar to goods went to maybe for services also.

但我们仍然看到同样的趋势：消费者更倾向于购买他们真正需要的商品和服务。

But we're still seeing the same trends where consumers are leaning more towards buying goods and services that they need.

如果他们打算做一些娱乐活动，他们会选择廉价的消遣方式。

And if they're going to do anything fun, they're exploring cheap thrills.

比如，我每个月都会说，与其去电影院，他们仍然选择在线观看。

So for example, instead of going to the movies, I say this every month, but instead of going to the movies, they are still streaming.

在线流媒体服务在他们计划增加支出的服务中排名第二。

Streaming is number two in terms of the list of services they plan to buy more of.

餐饮服务仍然是排名第一的。

Restaurant still is number one.

但排序上出现了一些相当有趣的变化。

But there were some pretty interesting changes in the order, the ranking.

通常我会关注前五名。

And usually, I look at the top five.

在前五名中，餐厅、酒吧和外卖依然位居第一。

And in the top five, they continue to have restaurants and bars and takeout as number one.

之后是流媒体和互联网，这两项也依然保持在前五名。

After that, streaming and Internet And also, those two things remained in the top five.

消费者还表示，他们计划在汽车旅馆、个人旅行和机动车服务，以及家庭维护、机票和火车票（用于个人旅行）上增加支出。

Consumers also said that they plan to spend more on motels and personal travel and motor vehicle services, as well as household maintenance, airfare, trains for personal travel.

但表示将重点关注医疗保健的人数大幅增加。

But there was a pretty big jump in those saying that they were gonna focus on health care.

因此，医疗保健的排名一直在上升。

So health care has been moving up the ranks.

比如，我们有一张图表，大致列出了约20种不同的服务，而医疗保健原本在第二页。

Like, we have a chart splitting up roughly, I don't know, 20 different types of services, and health care was on page two.

现在它跃升到了第一页，之前排第三。

It's now jumped to page one, and it was third.

它在一月份排名第三。

It ranked third in January.

因此，人们更加关注医疗保健，这很有趣，考虑到医疗成本持续上涨，以及公共医疗政策的变化，这也完全可以理解。

So that's fascinating that there's this bigger focus on health care, and that's also understandable given questions around the high rising cost of health care and also in in terms of public health care changes in policies.

此外，有更多人表示想要旅行，这很有趣，因为当我们询问人们的度假计划时，这些计划仍在持续减少。

There was also an increase in those wanting to travel, which is interesting because when we ask people about vacation plans, those plans continue to dwindle.

我们看到国内旅行有所减弱，这很不寻常，因为通常国内旅行一直很强劲，人们并不打算出国。

And we saw weakening in domestic travel, which is unusual because typically domestic travel has been pretty robust and people have not been looking to go abroad.

所以这里存在一点矛盾，但我们六个月后再看吧。

So there's a little bit of a dichotomy here, but we'll see in six months.

当然。

Absolutely.

接下来，我们将短暂休息一下，稍后继续我们的对话。

With that, we're going to take a short break and be right back with more of our conversation.

未来工作对您的员工意味着什么？

What does the future of work mean for your employees?

您的公司如何应对人工智能的未来？

How will your company navigate the future of AI?

会爆发全球性经济衰退吗？

Will there be a global recession?

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At the conference board, our experts translate the latest research and economic analysis into insights and real time problem solving for your organization.

成为商业委员会的会员，您的团队将获得来自经济学、市场营销与传播、治理与可持续发展、公共政策以及人力资源等领域的丰富知识。

Membership at the conference board provides your team with an assortment of knowledge from economics, marketing and communications, governance and sustainability, public policy, and human capital.

作为会员，您将能够接触我们的专家中心、会员专属活动、数据与基准工具，以及有助于您理解当下并塑造未来的同行交流资源。

As a member, you'll have access to our center experts, member exclusive events, data and benchmarking tools, and peer sharing that will help you understand the present and shape the future.

立即访问 www.conference-board.org，考虑成为商业委员会会员。

Consider becoming a conference board member today by visiting www.conference-board.org.

欢迎回到高管视角。

Welcome back to c suite perspectives.

我是埃琳·麦克劳克林，经济战略与金融中心的高级经济学家。

I'm Erin McLaughlin, senior economist of the Economy Strategy and Finance Center at the conference board.

我身边的是我们的首席经济学家达娜·彼得森。

I'm joined by our Chief Economist, Dana Peterson.

我们今天要换个角度，达娜会问我一些关于近期美国贸易趋势的问题。

We're gonna turn the tables a bit and Dana is going to ask me some questions about recent trends in US trade.

是的，埃琳，你是我们的贸易事务主管，所以我将向你提问过去六个月美国与主要贸易伙伴之间的动态。

Yes, Erin, you are our trade czar, and so I'm going to pepper you on what's been happening over the last six months between The US and its major trading partners.

那么，在关税和其他贸易壁垒的影响下，过去十二个月的贸易情况如何？

So how has trade been impacted over the last twelve months given tariffs and other trade barriers?

这很有趣，因为我们刚刚讨论了电子产品和消费者感受。

It's very interesting since we were just talking about electronics and products and how consumers are feeling.

令人惊讶的是，尽管过去一年经历了新的关税体系，但美国的进口和出口总量总体上还是上升了。

So surprisingly, overall, even though this past year has been filled with a new tariff regime, we've seen US imports and exports go up overall.

因此，当我们考察美国所有商品进出口情况时，进口增长了6.5%，出口增长了6%。

So US imports are up 6.5%, and exports are up 6% when we look at all US trade of goods going in and out of our country.

但真正有趣的是，我们所看到的变化主要集中在几个特定的贸易伙伴身上。

But what's been really interesting is the changes that we have seen are pretty specific to a couple of our trading partners.

我们的最大贸易伙伴是墨西哥，但与他们的贸易并没有出现太大变化。

And so our largest trading partner is Mexico, and we haven't seen that much difference in trade with them.

然而，我们与中国——我们的第二大贸易伙伴，以及加拿大——我们的第三大贸易伙伴，的贸易却出现了显著变化。

But we've seen substantial changes in our trade with China, which is our second largest trading partner, and Canada, our third largest trading partner.

这基本上是从解放日以来的情况。

And so that's pretty much since Liberation Day.

你能给我们大致讲讲美国与加拿大、中国之间的净贸易额，或者进出口额的变化幅度吗？

Can you give us a sense of how much of a delta we've seen between net trade or just exports and imports between Canada, The US, and China and The US?

是的。

Yes.

对于中国，我们将去年与前年相比，发现进口下降了26%，出口下降了23%。

So with China, our year over year difference when we compare last year to the year before, we've seen a 26% decrease in imports and a 23% decrease in exports.

这非常有趣，因为这恰好反映了我们与中国贸易的商品种类出现了明显下滑。

And so it's been very interesting because that sort of mirrors the kinds of goods that we trade with China as have really declined.

这些商品主要是原油、取暖油和其他石油产品、大豆，去年大豆在新闻中频繁出现。

So those goods are in large part crude oil, heating oil, and other petroleum products, soybeans, which were in the news quite a bit last year.

去年我们的大豆出口比前一年减少了15%，还有工业机械、家电和其他一些产品。

We ended up exporting 15% less soybeans last year than the year before, as well as sort of industrial machinery, appliances, and other things.

这种贸易已经大幅下滑。

That trade has been off.

现在有趣的是，与中国相比，加拿大对美国贸易的依赖程度要高得多。

Now what's interesting with China is that they're actually not very dependent upon US trade for their overall economy compared to Canada.

所以加拿大，好吧，他们是我们的邻国。

So Canada, okay, we they're our next door neighbors.

他们是我们的邻国。

They're our next door neighbor.

正如你所说，两国之间的进出口出现了显著变化。

And as you said, there's been big deltas in terms of exports and imports between the two economies.

这些数据是多少？主要涉及哪些产品？

What do those numbers look like, and what have been the products?

对于加拿大，我们的进口下降了5%，出口减少了3%。

So for Canada, our imports have gone down 5%, and our exports have decreased 3%.

在我们的十大贸易伙伴中，只有中国和加拿大是负增长的。

So among our top 10 trading partners, only China and Canada are we negative with.

对于加拿大来说，情况其实很相似，我们与他们交易的商品（除大豆外）也差不多。

Now for Canada, it's actually very similar, some of the goods, excluding soybeans, that we trade with them.

因此，能源产品（包括石油）、机械以及汽车之间的差异很大。

So that's a lot of differential between energy products, including oil, as well as machinery, and also automobiles.

我们的汽车进出口总体下降了约10%，这是与加拿大贸易的重要商品。

So the our import and export of automobiles is off about 10% overall, and that is a big product that we trade with Canada.

现在我觉得真正有趣的是，显然，随着解放日以及过去一年我们看到的关税，我们对中国征收的关税非常高。

Now what I think is really interesting is that, obviously, with Liberation Day and with sort of the tariffs that we've seen over the last year, we have pretty high tariffs with China.

它们的范围实际上在10%到45%之间。

They really range anywhere between 1045%.

但对加拿大，我们仅对与之贸易的约13%的商品征收关税。

But with Canada, we only have tariffs on about 13% of our goods that we're trading with them.

我们超过80%的商品都受美墨加协定覆盖。

More than 80% of our goods are covered under USMCA.

因此，我们出现下滑的现象，更多反映的不是关税的影响，而是两国之间行为、政策的变化以及关系的整体降温。

So the fact that we're in a decline really speaks to not so much the tariffs having an impact as much as maybe behavior, policy, and just a general cooling in the relationship between the two countries.

令人着迷又令人震惊。

Fascinating and shocking.

是的。

Yeah.

请提醒我们，目前我们与中国在贸易方面的停火协议是什么，以及它会持续多久。

So remind us of what our current truce is with China and how long it will last regarding trade.

我知道在过去一年里，正如我们在讨论消费者信心时所看到的，消费者和企业仍然面临极大的不确定性。

So I know over the last year, and obviously we just saw this in our discussion around consumer confidence, uncertainty is still really paramount for consumers, for businesses.

我认为在2026年，我们仍会看到不确定性保持在高位，因为我们之间的贸易和关税问题尚未解决。

And I think in 2026, we're gonna continue to see uncertainty be really high because our sort of trade and tariff is not settled.

我们似乎在去年11月与中国达成了所谓的停火协议，但这一停火协议仅持续到11月。

We seem to have settled things when in this past November, we have a quote, unquote truce with China, but that truce only lasts until November.

所以我们必须重新与中国就贸易问题展开对话。

And so we're gonna have to reengage with China over trade.

是2026年11月还是2027年11月？

Is that November 2027 or '26?

2026年。

'26.

明白了。

Okay.

所以这就在今年。

So that's this year.

今年。

This year.

从即将来临的11月到今年11月，这是我们与中国所谓的休战期。

From November coming up until this November is our quote unquote truce with China.

而对于加拿大和墨西哥，我们有美墨加贸易协定，该协定预计在2026年7月前进入重新谈判阶段。

And then with Canada and Mexico, we have The US Mexico Canada trade agreement, which is essentially up for renegotiation leading up to July of 2026.

所以我认为，在接下来的一年里，我们与三大贸易伙伴的关系将持续面临不确定性。

So think we're gonna continue to see persistent uncertainty with our three big trading partners all throughout the next year.

最后一个问题。

So final question.

我们的成员和听众应该关注哪些迹象，以判断我们与中国的关系是会继续维持还是有所改善？

What are some signposts that our members and listeners should pay attention to regarding whether or not we're going to continue to have or improve our relationships with China our relationship with China?

同时，当我们重新谈判美墨加协定（USMCA）时，这又意味着什么？

And also, what does it mean as we renegotiate The US renegotiates USMCA with Canada and Mexico?

我认为这些因素都是相互关联的，我们在过去几周已经明显看到了这一点。

I think they're all combined, and we've really seen that within the last couple weeks.

所以，当加拿大总理马克·卡尼最近在达沃斯发言时，他详细谈到了全球贸易格局的重组。

So when the Canadian prime minister Mark Carney spoke at Davos recently, he really talked about the reordering of global trade.

在过去几周里，加拿大一直与中国进行会谈，外界有一种感觉，认为加拿大可能正倾向于与中国达成更多自由贸易协议，略微背离美国。

And Canada had been meeting with China over the last few weeks, and there was a sense that perhaps Canada maybe sort of agreeing to more free trade with China and turning its back a little bit on The US.

而美国政府对此的反应相当强烈。

And the administration's reaction to that was pretty strong.

就在过去几天里，加拿大已明确表示，不会与中国达成一项大规模的自由贸易协定。

And so just within the last couple days, Canada has come out and said that they would not be doing a big free trade agreement with China.

我们还看到，在美国与墨西哥的关系中，中国‘介入了对话’。

And we've also seen with our US Mexico relationship that China's quote unquote enters the chat.

因此，墨西哥已经对中国商品加征了关税。

And so Mexico has put their own tariffs on Chinese goods.

所以我认为，这并不仅仅关乎北美地区。

So I think that it's not really necessarily just about North America.

中国所受到的影响，以及我们两个邻国——美国和墨西哥——与中国的双边关系所带来的影响，都将成为我们在即将到来的2026年讨论贸易问题时的重要组成部分。

The impact on China, the impact that our two big trading partners that are our neighbors have with their relationships with China are all gonna be part of the trade conversation as we work through this coming 2026 year.

今年肯定不会无聊。

This year is certainly not going to be boring.

是的。

No.

非常感谢你，埃琳。

Thanks so so much, Erin.

这次对话非常棒，你采访我，然后我又采访了你。

This was a great conversation with you interviewing me and then me interviewing you.

是的。

Yes.

谢谢你的到来。

So thanks for coming.

谢谢你邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

当然。

Absolutely.

也感谢各位收听《高管视角》。

And thanks to all of you for listening to C Suite Perspectives.

我是达娜·彼得森，本系列由会议委员会为您呈现。

I'm Dana Peterson, and this series has been brought to you by the conference board.

您正在收听的是由会议委员会制作的《高管视角》播客。

You have been listening to c suite perspectives, a podcast by the conference board.