002：柯克·杜普莱西斯——如何在期权交易中获得优势

世界上最好的交易员最大的秘密就是，他们和普通人没什么两样。

The biggest secret of the best traders in the world is that they're just like everyone else.

但他们付出了大量努力，去学习市场，弄清楚哪些方法有效、哪些无效。

However, they've worked hard to learn the markets and discover what works and what doesn't.

那你怎么才能听到这些故事，了解他们使用的策略和技巧呢？

But how can you hear about these journeys and get in on the strategies and tactics they use?

办法就是去听交易员们的对话。

You can do it by listening to chat with traders.

接下来是您的主持人，亚伦·菲菲尔德。

Here's your host, Aaron Fifeld.

嗨。

Hey.

大家最近怎么样？

What's up, guys?

很高兴你们能来，也非常感谢你们收听《与交易员对话》第二期。

It's awesome to have you here, and a huge thank you for tuning in to the second episode of Chat With Traders.

今天我们请到了一位非常特别的嘉宾，他不仅会分享大量实用的交易洞见，还会告诉我们，他是如何在当今市场中成为一名成功的期权交易员的。

We've got a really cool guest on the show today, and he's here not only to give us plenty of valuable trade insights, but also to share some pointers about what has made him a really successful options trader in today's market.

说到这里，今天的嘉宾正是柯克·杜普莱西斯。

With that being said, today's guest is none other than Kirk Du Plessis.

柯克最初在投资银行和华尔街工作，但几年前他决定转行，开始自己交易，逐步建立属于自己的账户。

Kirk originally comes from a background of investment banking and working on Wall Street, but a few years back decided to make the switch and begin trading for himself to grow an account of his own.

相信很多听众已经知道，柯克是OptionAlpha网站的首席交易员。这个平台最初只是一个博客，但自从他独立创业后，现在已经发展成一个庞大的教学平台，向成千上万的人传授他的期权交易方法。

And as many of you may already know, Kirk is the head trader over at optionalpha.com, which originally started out as a blog, but after venturing on his own has now blown out into a platform where he teaches his method of trading options to thousands of people.

柯克无疑是期权交易领域的权威，这也是我今天特别期待和大家分享这段访谈的原因之一。

Kirk is undoubtedly an authority on the subject of options trading, and that's just one of the reasons why I'm stoked to share this interview with you today.

在正式开始之前，如果你们喜欢这次访谈，麻烦花一分钟在iTunes上给我们打个五星好评。

Just before we get into it, I would like to say, if you do enjoy this interview, please take a minute to leave a five star review on iTunes.

这会对我们帮助巨大，也能让更多人听到我们的节目。

That would be awesome and a massive help that will allow us to reach even more listeners.

我是主持人亚伦·弗莱菲尔德，今天请到的嘉宾是杜普莱西斯。

So I'm your host, Aaron Fryfield, and here is our guest for today, Du Plessis.

请享受吧。

Enjoy.

嘿，Kirk。

Hey, Kirk.

非常感谢你来参加节目。

Thanks a lot for coming on the show.

你能来真是太好了，真的很感谢你抽出时间。

It's awesome to have you here, and I really appreciate you, you know, giving up the time to come on.

是的，老兄。

Yeah, man.

很期待这次对话，Aaron。

Looking forward to it, Aaron.

太好了。

Awesome.

那我们先聊聊，你是怎么开始交易的？

So let's get started by sharing with us how you got into trading.

你当初是怎么开始接触交易的？最吸引你的是什么？

Where did it all start for you and what was the initial appeal?

是的。

Yeah.

说起来大概八到十年前吧。

I mean, it goes back a couple of years, probably about eight or ten years now.

我一直都在金融行业，对金融一直很感兴趣，对吧？

And I think I really got I've always been in finance and interested in finance, right?

我家人在金融圈里干了很多年了。

Like my family's been in the financial business for a long time.

所以这一直是我关心的方向。

So that's always been an interest of mine.

但我真正接触到交易，是在纽约工作的时候。

But I think I really got introduced to trading when I was actually working in New York.

我当时在德意志银行的并购部门工作，那是一家德国银行，但我在纽约的办公室。

So I worked on Wall Street for Deutsche Bank, which is a German bank, but I was in the mergers and acquisitions department.

那时候我主要处理企业金融方面的事务，也为了我的学位在学这些，但公司给了我一个轮岗机会，去衍生品交易台，比如高收益债、垃圾债这类产品。

And so I was dealing with that and kind of corporate finance for my degree and everything, but I had an opportunity with them to do a rotation on a derivatives trading desk, so like high yield debt and junk and stuff like that.

正是从那时起，我对交易真正产生了兴趣，之后就一路持续发展，不断学习。

And that's really where it kind of like piqued my interest in trading and just kind of from there, it's kind of taken off as far as just continuously learn.

对我来说，就像你一样，这根本是个没完没了的过程。

For me, I mean, probably like you, it's like a never ending thing.

市场总是在变。

The markets are always changing.

总有新东西等着你去学。

There's always new things to learn.

对我来说，这一直是最吸引人的地方，对吧？

For me, that's always the big appeal, right?

就是怎么才能一次又一次地提升自己，

It's like, how can I get better and better and better at

交易？

trading?

没错，说得太对了。

Absolutely, no, really good point.

我之前听了你的一期播客，你提到刚离开华尔街后亏了几千美元。

So I was listening to one of your podcast episodes earlier on and you talked about losing a couple thousand dollars your after first you left Wall Street.

我很想听听，你刚入行时遇到过哪些困难？

I'm keen to hear what were some of the things you struggled with early on?

是啊，确实如此。

Yeah, man.

我离开华尔街后、在做并购之前，其实有机会去一家美国地区性银行做研究工作。

So when I got home from and so in between Wall Street and doing working in M and A, I had a chance actually to work for a regional bank in The US doing research.

我当时是房地产投资信托分析师。

So I was a REIT analyst.

我们负责研究房地产投资信托，经常去见CEO和CFO，写研究报告，做全套分析，还给股票做价格预测——现在回头看，那些预测简直荒唐。

We cover like real estate investment trusts and we would go meet with the CEOs and CFOs and publish reports and do the whole thing and then give price projections on stocks which are now totally bogus.

我现在想想都觉得不可思议，居然真有人会认真看待我们那些预测，还当真了。

Like I look back on that now and I'm like, I can't believe anybody ever read our stuff and like took it seriously, these projections at the same rate, right?

所以经历这些之后，我跟老婆说：‘我回家后要开始做交易了。’

So after all that, I told my wife, I said, Look, I'm to come home and I'm going to start trading, right?

我要做那些在纽约见过的家伙们一直在做的事。

I'm going to do what I've seen these guys do before in New York.

我回家的第一周，就像个刚上场的牛仔，啥都不懂就冲进市场。

And so I got home the first week and you know, like a rodeo cowboy, new guy trading, right?

我以为自己完全懂市场是怎么运作的。

I think I know exactly how the market works.

于是我冲进去做了好几笔交易，根本不知道自己在干嘛，只是觉得看着挺酷。

And so I get in there and I make a bunch of trades that I have, you know, no idea what's happening, but it just looks kind of cool to do it.

结果亏了几千块，我老婆过来跟我说：‘如果你在家交易就是这德性，那你真得好好想想 priorities 了。’

And I end up losing a couple of grand and my wife comes to me and she's like, look, you know, if this is what it's going to be like when you're at home trading, you better rethink your priorities here.

但说实话，我觉得这反而是我遇到的最好的事之一。

So but I think that that that really actually was probably one of the best things to happen to me.

我知道很多人都经历过类似的事。

I know a lot of people go through that same thing, right?

他们回家开始交易，结果亏了钱，就灰心了。

Where they go home and they start trading and they lose, and then they get discouraged.

我想告诉你，刚开始亏点钱，其实就是在交学费。

And I'm here to tell you that probably losing some money to begin with is just your form of education, right?

这就像向市场交学费一样。

It's like paying tuition to the market.

就那几周在家起步的阶段，我学到了太多东西。

So I think what that taught me so many different lessons in that just couple of weeks that I was at home starting off.

但正是这段经历，让我真正开始思考：我到底想做什么？

But I think it really laid the foundation for allowing me to go out and say, Hey, what do I really want to do?

交易到底是什么样子的？

Like, what does trading really look like?

从那以后，我才慢慢走上正轨，学会如何把交易变成一份稳定的收入。

And then kind of from there started my trajectory of learning how to really make this a successful income producing thing.

对，没错。

Yeah, right.

你第一周就亏了几笔，还算不小。

So you took a few decent losses in your first week.

你是怎么坚持下来的，没被打垮？

How did you push on through that and not get discouraged?

是因为你看到了继续下去的机会和潜力吗？

Was it you could see the opportunities and potential if you were to continue?

对。

Yeah.

我是说，过去七八年里，我辅导过太多人了，遍布全国各地。

I mean, look, I think that when you know, I've coached so so many people over the last, like, seven, eight years, you know, across the entire country.

我辅导过澳大利亚、英国、非洲、印度，还有世界各地的人。

I mean, like, you know, across the entire country, I've coached people in Australia and The UK and Africa and India and and all over.

对吧？

Right?

我发现，人们最容易灰心的，无非就是交易本身。

And I find the same kind of things that people get discouraged about is just trading.

他们做几笔不错的交易，然后突然来一笔亏钱的，对吧？

They'll make a couple of good trades and then they'll make one bad trade, right?

结果这一笔亏钱的交易，就一直压在他们心头，对吧？

And then that one bad trade, it kind of like hangs over them, right?

就因为这一笔搞砸了，他们就觉得：这行根本行不通，对吧？

Like it's that one bad trade that went wrong and they're like, Man, this never works, right?

所以我觉得，我现在做交易的关键就在于数字。

So I think what I found and where I'm at now with my trading is that it's all about numbers.

我的意思是，必须得看数字。

I mean, it's got to be about numbers.

你得像数学家一样去对待市场。

And you have to approach the market like a mathematician.

这本来就应该这样，对吧？

And that's how it's got to be, right?

你不能带着情绪的起伏去操作市场，对吧？

You can't approach the market with emotional ups and downs, right?

我觉得某只股票会涨，或者我看了篇新闻报道。

I think a stock is going to go higher or I read this news article.

这些东西根本没用，对提升交易成功率帮助不大。

All this stuff means crap and it doesn't really help you know, become more successful.

你得靠数据和概率来操作。

So you got to approach it by the numbers and by the probabilities.

我刚开始自己交易的那几个月慢慢明白了一个道理：只要我做对了该做的事，比如能判断出这笔交易是对的，那我就相信，从长远来看，它最终会带来回报。

And I think what I learned kind of in those first months like really trading by myself and doing this was that if I'm doing the right activities, like if I know that I'm going to, you know, make the right trade, and that also leads me to believe that I know that over time, that trade is going to pay out.

可能前两次它不会赚钱，但如果这是一笔好交易，说不定后面能赚八倍、十倍。

It might not pay out the first 2x, but if I make that same trade and it's a great trade, maybe it pays out 8x10, right?

我只是不知道那些八倍、十倍的回报什么时候会来。

And I just don't know when those 8x are going to come in.

我知道前两次很可能会亏，甚至第一次做这笔交易就亏了。

I know that 2x I'm going to lose and it might be the first 2x I make that trade.

但只要我操作得当，遵循正确的流程，时间久了，概率终究会站在我这边。

But if I'm doing things right, I'm doing the mechanics right, over time, the odds are going to work out in my favor, the probabilities are going work out in my favor.

我在交易中真正体会到的是，每天都要把那些小事做对。

And that's what I've really found in my trading is that you've got to do the little things right every day.

你得像机器人一样，每次都用同样的方法操作交易，时间久了自然会有回报。

I mean, you got to be like a robot making the same types of mechanics with your trades because over time it's gonna work out.

当然。

Of course.

没错。

Yeah.

顺便问一下，你离开华尔街的工作、离开那些公司的时候，是直接全身心投入交易，没有任何其他收入来源吗？

So just on a side note there, when you left your job working on Wall Street and sort of with these other firms, were you just sort of diving straight into it without any other income?

你那时候就是靠交易来维持生计的，对吧？

You just sort of started trading and that was sort of your only form of income at the time?

是的，没错。

Yeah, man.

那段时间挺特别的。

So that was It was an interesting time.

因为我家人一直做房贷业务，那段时间我也帮着他们打点一些事情。

So because my family has been in the mortgage business, I I was kind of sort of in the mortgage business helping out with them during that time.

但现在，交易已经完全成了我的全职收入。

But now, trading is definitely a full time income for me.

我很幸运，当时还年轻，和我妻子一起开始，能承担一点风险，因为她有一份更稳定的工作。

But I was fortunate enough that I did it at a young enough age with my wife that we were able to take a little bit of risk because she did have a more steady job.

她是个老师，到现在还是老师。

She's a teacher, still a teacher this day.

所以她在那方面是我坚实的后盾，我多少能依靠她。

So she was kind of my rock in that sense because she was able to I was able to lean on her a little bit.

因此，我不太建议别人直接辞职，一头扎进交易里。

So I think that I would be hesitant to tell anyone to just quit their job and just jump right into it.

说实话，我觉得根本没必要这么做。

And frankly, I don't even think you need to do that.

做交易其实不需要花太多时间，完全不用辞职就能做。

It doesn't take that much time commitment that you need to quit your job to do it.

只有当收入超过你那份工作的时候，才值得考虑辞职，好让自己多点空闲时间，对吧？

Only when the income is more than your job, then maybe you think about quitting just so that you have extra time, right?

你根本不需要把所有精力都放在交易上，盯着市场的每一个波动。

But you don't don't need to focus all your energy on trading and watching every tick of the market.

你完全可以一边上班，一边把交易做得非常好。

You can do this and do it very, very well while still working your regular job.

好的，太好了。

Okay, great.

你觉得在华尔街工作、接触过市场，对你转做个人交易是有帮助，还是反而成了障碍？

Do you feel that having worked on Wall Street and been involved with the markets was an advantage or maybe a disadvantage for you when you made the transition to trading for yourself?

是的，说实话，每件事都有利有弊，对吧？

Yeah, mean, think the biggest advantage, I mean, I think there's there's drawbacks, you know, and benefits to each, right?

我觉得最大的优势是，我亲眼看到了那堵‘中国墙’的另一面。

I mean, I think the biggest advantage was, you know, I got I got to see the other side of the Chinese Wall, right?

当然，我说的不是真正的长城，你懂的。

I mean, that's like it's not like the actual Chinese Wall, right?

就是他们说的，私人和公开之间的那道墙，对吧？

Like it's the, you know, what they call like, you know, between private and public, right?

我在并购这边，属于私人一方。

So I was on the private side in M and A.

所以我看到了幕后，真正了解了公司在准备上市、拆分、被收购、成为目标时都在想些什么。

I got to see behind the scenes you know, really what companies are thinking as they start to go public and as they start to split themselves up and become acquired and make themselves targets.

这挺有意思的。

So that was interesting.

后来我去了那家地区性银行工作，那时我就站在了公开一方。

And then when I worked for, the regional bank that I worked for, I was on the public side.

所以我反过来要问CFO和CEO这些问题，比如你们预期的业绩会怎么样？

So I was on the other side where I was, you know, now I was asking questions to the CFO and to the CEO like, you know, what do you think projections are going to be?

你觉得这个业务会怎么增长？

How do you see this business growing?

所以关于公司是怎么运营的，以及背后的逻辑，我算是有了比较全面的了解。

So as far as an understanding of how, you know, companies and most companies run their business and then how that works, I got a pretty good understanding of it.

这些经历跟交易有什么关系？说实话，对大多数人来说可能根本没用，因为我现在做交易根本用不上当年学的那些东西。

How any of that relates to trading is again, probably useless to most people because I I don't use much of what I learned in that space now in trading.

我甚至觉得，现在市面上大多数分析师根本不懂交易成功需要什么，他们太盯着盈利、收入增长这些事了，当然，这些东西在市场里也不是没用。

And I and I would even say that most analysts that are out there now have no idea what it takes to be successful trading because they are too focused on, you know, earnings and revenue growth and all this stuff, which of course, you know, has its place in the market.

但就我本人做期权交易来说，这些东西根本无关紧要。

But when it comes to trading options in my particular case, you know, because I'm an options trader, none of that stuff really means anything.

跟真正该关注的东西完全背道而驰。

It couldn't be further from, you know, what you should be focusing on.

明白了。

Okay, sure.

这真有意思，柯克。

Now that's really interesting Kirk.

如果这些都不是你该关注的，能不能简单说说，你现在是怎么做交易的？

So if that's not what you should be focused on, would you mind sort of taking us through a little bit on how you describe your trading style these days?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

所以，从一个宏观的角度来看，这就是我的交易方式。

So so here's kind of the the maybe the 10,000 foot view on my trading.

我非常支持多做、多做很多小单交易。

I'm a big proponent of of making lots and lots of small trades.

但我一开始并不是这样的。

And I didn't always start that way.

以前我觉得，该激进的时候就得激进，对吧？

You know, I was more of a proponent of you know, be aggressive in the areas that you need to be aggressive, right?

但现在我知道，时间一长，概率终究会对我不利。

But now I know that, know, over time the probabilities are going to work themselves out of my favor.

所以我得像个赌场那样操作。

So I need to act more like a casino, right?

我得限制每一笔交易的资金投入，还得到处下很多小注。

I need to limit my investment in every single trade, and I need to make lots and lots of bets all over the place.

有些人看了可能会说，基克，你为啥要这么做呢？

Now some people would look at that and say, well, Kirk, you know, why do you do that, right?

这么多小交易，你不是没那么大账户吗？

That's a lot of little trades, you know, or I don't have the account size to do that.

但我总跟人说，你想一想赌场吧。

But I always talk to people and I say, well, think about a casino, right?

你进赌场说，我想把一百万全押在一注上。

You go into a casino and you say, I want to drop a million dollars on one bet.

没有哪家赌场会允许你这么干。

No casino is ever going to let you do that, right?

全世界没有一家赌场会让你把一百万押在单注上。

Not one casino in the world is going to make let you drop a million dollars on one bet.

但如果你进赌场说，我想用一百万，分成一百万笔一美元的注来玩，他们肯定会说，没问题，随时奉陪。

But if you go into that same casino and say, I want to take a million dollars and I want to spread it out over a million bets of $1 They'd say sure all day long, right?

因为他们知道，时间一长，你的钱总会落到他们手里。

Because they know that over time they're going to get some of your money.

但要是只赌一次，风险就太大了，对吧？

But on a one time roll of the dice, it's too risky, right?

所以我们得学着像他们那样做事。

And so we need to act more like that.

我们要做很多小赌注，都是高概率的交易，这样时间久了，整体上就能站在有利的一边。

We need to make lots of little bets that are really high probability trades so that over time they all work out in our favor.

这就是我交易的基本思路，从宏观层面来看，大概就是这样。

So that's kind of the basis of of how I trade as far as, you know, kind of the 10,000 foot view.

再往深了说，我主要是卖期权，赚取权利金。

And then as we start digging down deeper, you know, I'm definitely an option seller of, you know, premium.

我觉得我们在市场里的优势就在于隐含波动率。

I think that our edge in the market is implied volatility.

无数次证明了，隐含波动率总是高估了价格的变动幅度。

It's been proven time and time again that implied volatility always overstates a move.

所以如果隐含波动率一次次预期股票会涨跌20%，我们实际看到的往往只有18%或者16%。

So if implied volatility is, you know, expecting a 20% move in a stock time and time again, we'll see that maybe that move is 18% or 16%.

也就是说，隐含波动率总是高估了实际的波动幅度。

So implied volatility always overstates that move.

作为交易者，我们就得利用好这个小小的优势。

And so as traders, we need to take advantage of that little edge.

所以我们应该更多时候做期权的卖方，而不是买方，对吧？

So we need to be net sellers of options more often than we're buyers, right?

期权买方一直在亏钱，而且以后还会继续亏下去。

Buyers of options are just getting crushed and they're going to continue to get crushed in the market.

但每个人都是从买期权开始的，对吧？

But that's where everyone starts, right?

因为买期权很简单，容易理解。

Because it's easy to buy options, it's simple to understand.

没人一上来就做期权卖方，而实际上这才是该从一开始就做的事。

Nobody starts with option selling, which is what they need to start with.

好的。

Okay.

你刚才提到，有些人觉得账户资金有限，没法做太多小单交易。

You mentioned in there some people might think their account size can be a little limiting to take lots of small trades.

真有这么回事吗？

Is that really the case?

你觉得新手交易者真的可以这么做吗？

And would you suggest this is actually something new traders could do?

是的，完全没问题。

Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

其实有个挺有意思的例子。

So here's actually a cool thing.

在我们做的第六期播客里，我们分析了Tasty Trade团队做的一个案例研究。

So in one of the podcasts that we did, which is show number six for our show, we looked at one of the case studies that actually the guys over at Tasty Trade did.

他们在这类研究上做得特别出色，资金也远比我充裕得多，毕竟他们有机构支持，资金充足。

And they're doing awesome stuff with a lot of studies and they've got so much more money than I could ever have to do all this, know, because they're backed and funded and all that stuff.

他们做了很多研究。

So they're doing a bunch of studies.

但我觉得他们做过的最出色的研究之一就是这个。

But here's the study that I think is is absolutely one of the best ones they've done.

他们找了两位账户里有1万美元的交易者，对吧？

And they took two traders with a $10,000 account, right?

这其实代表了普通交易者的水平。

And that sets the average trader, right?

他们手头大概有1万美元可以操作。

They got about $10,000 to trade.

这正是普通交易者典型的资金规模。

That's statistically what the average trader has.

第一位交易者，也就是交易者A，每次交易只投入账户资金的5%。

The first trader, trader A, only invested 5% of his account in every single trade.

他做了一笔高胜率的交易，卖出了一个铁鹰价差，但每个月只用5%的资金，明白吗？

So he made a high probability trade, he sold an iron condor but he only invested 5 percent every month, okay?

所以不管账户余额是多少，他每次都投5%。

So whatever his account balance was, he invested 5%.

如果账户涨了，他就继续投5%，以此类推，对吧？

If his account balance grew, he invested 5% etcetera, right?

剩下的95%都放在现金里，根本不动它，明白吗？

Left 95% of the money in cash, didn't even touch it, right?

所以他每次其实就投500美元左右，对吧？

So he's investing, you know, dollars 500 basically, right?

从他那1万美元的账户里。

Of his $10,000 account.

另一个交易员，交易员B，每次交易都投50%的资金。

Trader B, so the other trader, he invested 50% of his money in every trade.

不管账户是涨了还是跌了，他每次都拿50%的资金去交易。

So no matter what his account size grew to or dropped to, he invested 50% of his money in every single trade.

到年底的时候，或者说实际上这是一项为期五年的研究。

Now at the end of the year, or I think it was actually a five year study.

对，实际上这个研究持续了五年。

Yeah, think it was actually a five year study.

他们连续五年重复进行同一种高胜率交易——铁鹰价差。

So they did five years of trading the same high probability trade iron condor.

五年结束后，两位交易员的胜率都是75%。

Now at the end of the five years, both traders had won 75% of the time.

他们的盈利交易占比都是75%。

They had made winning trades 75% of the time.

所以人们自然会想，既然他们赢的次数一样多，B交易员每次投的钱更多，那他的收益岂不是远超A交易员？

So naturally people would say, well, hey, if they made winning trades 75% of the time, trader B has to be light years ahead of trader A because he was trading more money, right?

他每四次交易里赢三次。

He won three out of four times.

他的交易都是赚钱的。

He was making profitable trades.

但实际结果是，B交易员虽然胜率相同，资金投入更大，最终却亏掉了一半本金，而A交易员赚了10%。

And what they actually found out is that trader B with the bigger allocation, even though he won the same amount of time, lost half of his money, trader A made 10%.

这项研究太惊人了，它证明了一个道理：你既不需要投入大量资金，也不必一开始就有很多钱。

So it's just phenomenal research that just proves the point that you don't need to either A, invest a lot of your money or B, you don't even need to start with a lot of your money.

你完全可以从500美元开始，就这么交易，对吧？

You can start with $500 and start trading that way, right?

只要你保持谨慎，控制仓位，不冒太大风险，500美元也能慢慢增长起来。

And that's as long as you're diligent about, you know, staying small and not risking too much, you can take $500 and grow that.

我想对那些刚开始的小交易者来说，最重要的就是别害怕从500美元起步，你真的可以从这里开始。

And I think that's the key takeaway for small traders that are out there is don't be scared to start with $500 You can start there.

你不可能靠500美元就辞职不干了。

You're not gonna quit your job with $500.

对吧？

Right?

你也不可能靠500美元交易就买下保时捷或法拉利，但你确实能做到稳步成长。

And then you're not gonna you're not gonna buy a Porsche or Ferrari with $500 trading, but you can do it.

这才是真正该记住的关键。

And that's that's the that's the takeaway.

好的。

Okay.

不错。

Cool.

当你提到做很多小单交易时，你是说这些交易分布在不同的市场，还是集中在某个细分领域？

So when you talk about taking a lot of smaller trades, are you suggesting these are spread out across a range of markets or within a niche?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个很好的观点。

So that's a good point.

我觉得，可以从几个不同的角度来看这个问题，对吧？

So I think that, you know, there's a couple of different ways you can look at it, right?

有些人会说，你必须在市场中分散投资。

Some people would say that you have to be diversified in market.

我觉得，基本上确实如此，对吧？

And I think more or less that's true, right?

你不想只交易石油股或者所有金属类股票吧。

You don't want to trade all oil stocks or all metals.

也不该只盯着黄金和白银。

You don't want to trade all gold and silver.

所以得在不同市场之间分散风险。

So there's got to be some diversification across market.

这说到底就是基本常识。

And that's just common sense.

你可以从这个角度来观察市场。

You can do that kind of looking at things.

但我更支持在两个不同维度上分散：一个是时间，另一个是标的。

But I'm more of a proponent of diversification across two different time across two different things.

比如时间上的分布。

One time.

我希望我的交易能覆盖不同的时间段。

So I want trades that are spread out across, you know, different times.

所以我有些交易是近月期权，有些是远月期权，也可能有两个月后或三个月后的交易。

So that means that I might have some trades that are front month options, some trades that are back month options, maybe some trades that are two months out or three months out.

这样我的交易就在不同时间段里同时进行。

So I've got trades that are working in different times.

另外，我还希望在交易策略上也做到分散。

And then also, I want to be diversified across strategy.

我不想只靠一种方法吃饭。

So I don't want to be a one trick pony.

我想既能卖跨式组合，也能卖勒式组合，还能做日历价差和蝶式价差，对吧？

I want to be able to sell strangles and sell straddles and also do calendars and butterflies, right?

所以我非常支持这种做法。

So I'm a big proponent.

如果你现在看我的投资组合，会发现我的交易在策略和时间上都分布得挺均匀的。

If you could look at my portfolio right now, I've got a pretty even mix of where my trades are strategy wise and then also time.

所以我在时间维度上也做到了分散。

So I'm also diversified over time.

我觉得这比市场本身更重要，因为你做高概率的交易时，市场最终会自我平衡。

I think that's more important than actually market because market will end up kind of neutralizing itself if you trade high probability trades.

好的，明白。

Okay, sure.

再回到你的播客，你有一期内容讲的是图表对你来说重要性逐渐降低，这个观点挺有意思的。

So just again, referring back to your own podcast, you've got an interesting episode about how charts becoming less of an importance to you.

对。

So Yeah.

你能说说你是怎么结合技术面、基本面来影响交易决策的吗？

Would you mind shining some light on how you use a mix of technicals, fundamentals and use to influence your trading decisions?

是的，没错。

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

以前技术分析对我特别重要，现在我依然会参考。

So technicals used to be a lot more important to me and I still reference them.

我觉得技术分析还是有它的价值，毕竟它能帮人找到参与市场的切入点。

So I think there's a place in technicals just because they're a way for people to get engaged, right?

人本来就是靠视觉学习的，对吧？

I mean, we're visual learners as humans, right?

所以我们看到图上指标交叉，就知道：哦，这可能是买入信号，对吧？

So we visually see something and we see an indicator cross and now we know, Hey, that might be, that's a buy signal, right?

我们心里能靠这种视觉感受来给自己找理由。

We can justify that in our head with the visualness.

技术分析倒也不是不行，但我那期播客里想说的——应该是第三或第四期——是我们刚推出的播客里提到的：你根本不需要懂股价历史或者技术指标，就能判断一笔交易是高概率还是低概率的。

So technicals are okay, but what I'm getting to with that podcast, I think it was show number three or show number four, in our podcast that we just launched was that you don't need to know anything about the stock like price history, technicals to know if a trade is a high probability trader or low prob excuse me, low probability trade.

我记得那个例子举的是雅虎和另一只股票。

And I think in that example, was using Yahoo and another stock.

好像是潘多拉之类的吧。

I believe it was maybe Pandora or something.

但本质上，这两只股票的情况几乎一模一样。

But basically, the stocks were virtually the same.

一笔交易你有80%的成功率，能赚50块；另一笔也是80%的成功率，但只能赚20块，对吧？

And one trade, you had 80% chance of success and you were making, let's say $50 In the other trade, you had an 80% chance of success, but you were making $20 right?

其实你根本不需要，我们现在说的就是这个。

And you don't need, I mean, you know, we talk about that right now.

你不用看图表就知道，一个是80%胜率能赚50块，另一个是80%胜率只赚20块，那我每天肯定选第一个。

You don't need to see the charts to know if I've got an 80% chance and I can make $50 versus 80% chance and I can make $20 Well, I'm going take that first trade every day.

所以我觉得，如果大家能重新回到起点，回归数据，把这套方法变成机械化的流程，真正搞懂概率和统计，你才会真正受益。

And so I think the more that people actually get, again, back into the beginning, get back into the numbers and make this mechanical and really learn the probabilities and statistics, the better off you're going to be.

说实话，这并不容易。

And believe me, it's tough.

挺难的，对吧？

It's hard, right?

谁都希望这事能简单点，对吧？

I mean, everyone wants this to be easy, right?

但事实就是没那么简单。

And it's just not easy.

所以才不是谁都能做到。

That's why everybody can't do it.

但如果你掌握了这些基础知识，起步时就能远远领先于大多数交易者。

But if you learn some of the basics, I think you'll be light years ahead of where most traders are when they get started.

说得真好，柯克。

Okay, that's really good Kirk.

在下单之前，除了概率，你还会看哪些因素？

Before taking a trade, what are you looking for besides the probabilities?

是什么让你有底气去执行一笔交易？

What gives you the confidence needed to execute on a trade?

没错，我觉得最重要的是流动性。

Right, so I think the biggest thing is liquidity.

我现在就算交易量小，也一定要选流动性好的标的。

So, I'm at the point now where even though I trade small, I want to trade liquid.

流动性这个点很多人忽略了，根本没认真看。

So I think liquidity is an overlooked thing, that that people just kind of glance over.

他们一输代码，看到期权有交易就下手了，但根本没留意流动性。其实很多时候，流动性差会把你从波动性里赚到的优势给抹掉。

They they type in a ticker symbol and they see the options are traded, But they don't really look at liquidity because more often than not, liquidity is kind of where you can lose that edge that you gain in volatility.

如果市场不够活跃，买卖价差达到三四十，有时候甚至接近一百美元，那你早就把优势丢光了。

So if there's not a tight market, so the bid ask spread and the options is 30 or 40 or sometimes I've seen them almost $100 wide, you're losing a huge edge.

不管你选的交易概率多高，或者行权价多合适，都没用。

And it doesn't matter how high probability trade you make or strike you select.

一旦市场缺乏流动性，你根本很难进场。

If you're in a market that's illiquid, you're going to have a tough time getting in.

进出的时候光是价差就能让你亏一大笔，而且想退出也特别困难。

You're going to lose just on the bid ask spread in and out, and you're going to have a tough time getting out.

就算你的交易本来有利可图，走势也对你有利，你可能还是得等三四天才能脱身。

So even if you have a profitable trade and it's working, you might not even be able to exit that trade for three or four days.

等你终于能平仓的时候，市场早就反转了。

And by that time the market's turned around.

所以在这方面，流动性真的特别关键。

So I think liquidity is a big thing, when it comes to that.

另外，我总会问自己一个问题：这个类型的交易，真的有必要放进我的投资组合里吗？

And then the other question I always ask myself is, do I need this type of a trade in my portfolio?

昨晚我刚和一起做指导的那个人聊了，他说想在富国银行做一笔交易。

And I was just talking last night to a guy that I do coaching with and he was saying, well, hey, you know, I want to make this trade in Wells Fargo.

我们一看他的投资组合，我就说：你对富国银行是看空的吧？

And we're looking at his portfolio and I'm like, okay, well you're bearish in Wells Fargo.

你这儿已经有十五笔看空交易了，对吧？

You got 15 bearish trades here, right?

你不需要再加一笔看空的了。

You don't need another bearish trade.

他说：可是这笔交易形态真的特别好。

He's like, yeah, but it's setting up really good.

我跟他说：管它形态多好，都没用。

I'm like, I don't care how great it's setting up.

你真的不需要再加一笔看空交易。

You don't need another bearish trade.

你应该考虑平掉几笔看空的，或者加点看多的，让整个组合和希腊字母Delta平衡一下。

You need to maybe take off a couple of bearish trades or maybe get some bullish trades, neutralize, you know, kind of your portfolio and your deltas.

我觉得很多人根本不会问这个问题，对吧？

And I think that's a question that people don't ask, right?

他们一看一个交易，就觉得：哇，这形态太棒了，太棒了。

They look at a trade and they're like, man, this is a great setup, great setup.

但它符合整体策略吗？

But does it fit in the overall picture?

对吧？

Right?

我到底需不需要这笔交易？

Do I need this trade or do I don't need this trade?

这只会让我更加偏向一边。

It's just going to, you know, cause me to be more lopsided.

所以我更看重这两点，而不是概率高低。

So those are the two things I look for, you know, more than the probabilities.

嗯，这很有道理。

Okay, that's really good.

所以一旦你进入一笔交易，能跟我们说说你是怎么管理它的吗？

So once you're into a trade, can you give us a bit of an idea on how you might go about managing it?

是的，我觉得管理交易其实主要有两种情况，对吧？

Yeah, I think there's obviously, well, two trades you can manage, right?

一种是自带保护的交易，比如价差期权、蝶式价差，还有债务价差，这些交易本身就有内置的保护机制。

There's trades that are kind of self managed meaning, the credit spreads, the butterflies, things like that, the debit spreads, they're self managed because you already have protection for them.

你一开仓，就已经买了认沽期权或者认购期权作为防护。

That as soon as you enter the trade, you've bought in a put or bought in a call as protection.

在我看来，最好的管理方式是在下单那一刻就做好规划。

To me, I firmly believe that you do best by managing those when you place the order.

也就是说，进场时要确保仓位别太大，产品要有足够的流动性，并且符合整个投资组合的布局。

So when you actually get into the trade, you make sure that you're not trading it too large and make sure that's a liquid product, that it fits in the overall portfolio.

这才是最有效的管理方式。

That's the best management you can do.

到了这一步，就该让概率发挥作用了。

At that point, you need to let the probabilities work themselves out.

所以我才跟人说，这行当不需要你两天内进出交易。

And that's why I tell people, this is not a business that you need to be, you know, in a trade and out of a trade in two days.

对吧？

Right?

你可以开仓后一直持有，等到到期日。

You can place trades and let them go all the way to expiration.

如果你一开始就把所有事情都做对了，那又怎样呢？

If you do everything right in the beginning, so what?

就算这笔交易亏了，你也知道，如果做十次，八次都会赚钱。

If it becomes a loser, you know that if you make that trade 10 times, eight times it's going be a winner.

对吧？

Right?

所以整个关键就在于耐心等待，让结果自然发生。

So that's the whole game is is being able to be patient and let it ride.

而另一种交易类型是风险不确定的，对吧？

Now the other types of trades that you have are the undefined risk trades, right?

比如你的跨式期权和勒式期权。

Like your strangles and straddles.

做这类交易时，你得稍微主动一点——也不一定是 aggressive，但确实得更勤快地盯着，对吧？

When it comes to those trades, you have to be a little bit more aggressive or not maybe aggressive, but you just have to babysit them a little bit more, right?

这类交易风险不确定，保证金风险也高。

They're undefined, they carry a lot of margin risk.

所以做这类交易，你得更快地锁定利润。

So with those types of trades, you either need to be a little bit quicker to take profit.

一旦有了不错的盈利，就该买回价差，别拖着。

So you need to, you know, buy back the spread when it's, you know, has a nice decent profit already.

别等到最大利润才出手，那样容易出问题。

Don't wait for that full max profit because you might get yourself in trouble.

但如果交易方向错了，你还是有多种应对方法的。

But if a trade goes wrong, then there's a bunch of things you can do.

不过总的来说，我特别主张对出问题的交易做两件事。

But generally, I'm a big proponent of doing two things with trades that go wrong.

一是延长我的交易周期。

One is extending my trading timeline.

如果我能把这笔交易展期到下个月，保持同样的行权价，还不用付展期费用，那对我来说就是一笔成功的交易，因为原本这笔交易只有三十天时间。

So if I can roll that trade to the next month and keep the same strikes and not pay to roll, well then that's a winning trade to me because now I've taken a trade that let's say is in thirty days.

现在我把它延到了六十天，因为展期到了下一个合约月。

And now I've given it sixty days because I've rolled it to the next contract month.

这样我就有了完全一样的交易，风险参数也没变，对吧？

Now I've got the exact same trade with the exact same risk parameter, right?

我没有花一分钱去展期，甚至可能还收到了一点展期收益。

I didn't pay any money to roll it or I didn't, you know, got a credit to roll it.

风险没变，但现在我有六十天的时间来等待正确，而不是只有三十天。

I've got the exact same risk, but now I've got sixty days to be right instead of thirty days.

我觉得现在市场上对展期的运用其实还不够充分。

So I think rolling is actually underutilized right now in the market.

很多人没有足够频繁地展期他们的合约。

People don't roll their contracts enough.

而且他们很可能滚错了，其实应该滚得更聪明才对。

And then they probably roll them wrong, but they need to roll them right.

另外一点是，如果我能收到权利金，那显然更有利，对吧？

And then the other thing is if I can take in a credit, that obviously will help, right?

在这些交易中收到权利金，能帮你扩大盈亏平衡点，尤其是做跨式或宽跨式的时候。

Taking in a credit on some of these trades will help widen out my breakeven points especially with your strangles and straddles.

收到的权利金越多，你的收益就越有保障，因为你直接锁定了巨额权利金，这会让你的盈亏平衡点在图表上大幅外移。

The more you can take in in a credit, the better off you're gonna become because you just bank this huge, huge credit and that widens out your breakeven points on your chart.

好的，这很有帮助。

Okay, that's great.

我想稍微退一步，整体看一下。

So I'd like to just take a bit of a step back.

你是做期权的，天天交易期权。

I mean, you're an options guy, you trade options.

你觉得期权相比其他金融产品，最吸引你的地方是什么？

What would you say attracts you to options over other types of products?