004：尼克·拉德格——如何克服交易亏损并持续执行

在金融市场交易存在亏损的风险。

Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss.

《与交易员对话》播客及其他内容仅供信息和教育参考，不构成任何交易或投资建议。

Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice.

世界上顶尖交易员最大的秘密就是，他们和普通人没什么不同。

The biggest secret of the best traders in the world is that they're just like everyone else.

但他们付出了大量努力，去学习市场，找出哪些方法有效、哪些无效。

However, they've worked hard to learn the markets and discover what works and what doesn't.

那你怎么才能了解这些经历，掌握他们使用的策略和技巧呢？

But how can you hear about these journeys and get in on the strategies and tactics they use?

方法就是收听《与交易员对话》。

You can do it by listening to Chat With Traders.

接下来是您的主持人亚伦·菲费尔德。

Here's your host, Aaron Fifeld.

你好。

Hey.

各位交易员，最近怎么样？

What's going on, traders?

感谢收听《Chat With Traders》第四期节目。

Thanks for listening to the fourth episode of Chat With Traders.

希望你们已经喜欢了前三期，最好还能从之前的嘉宾那里学到一些东西。

I really hope you've enjoyed the first three episodes and ideally learned a few things from the guests that have been on so far.

如果还没听过，那今天正好是个转折点。

If you haven't, then I think that's all about to change.

今天的嘉宾从1985年第一次下单交易以来，已经在金融市场里经历了无数起伏。

Today's guest has ridden many waves at the financial markets since placing his first trade in 1985.

近三十年的实战经验，让尼克·拉奇能分享那些让他不仅活下来、还能持续盈利的关键心得。

With almost thirty years of skin in the game, Nick Radge is here to share some of the crucial lessons that have allowed him to not only survive, but consistently profit along the way.

除了三十年的交易经历，尼克还运营着一家非常成功的股市咨询服务——《The Chartist》。

In addition to thirty years of trading, Nick also runs a highly successful stock market advisory service, The Chartist.

他曾经登上迈克尔·科弗尔的趋势跟踪播客，每月在天空商业频道做一次嘉宾，还写了三本书。

He's also been featured on Michael Coverle's trend following podcast, appears on Sky Business Channel once a month, and is the author of not one, not two, but three books.

这次访谈我特别喜欢的一点，是尼克深入探讨了许多很少被人谈起的交易细节。

One of the things I really enjoyed about this interview was how Nick went into great detail about many aspects of trading that are not often discussed.

我觉得不管你是新手还是老手，都能从这次对话里有所收获。

I feel as though there is something in this for traders of all levels.

在开始访谈之前，别忘了去 iTunes 搜索《Chat With Traders》，如果你喜欢我们的内容，麻烦给个五星评价和评论。

Before we roll into the interview, please remember to visit Chat With Traders on iTunes and leave a five star rating and review if you like what you hear.

你的支持不仅能帮我们触达更多听众，也真的特别鼓舞人心。

By doing this, you will help us to reach even more listeners, and the support is really encouraging.

好了，我是主持人亚伦·菲尔德。

With that being said, I'm your host, Aaron Firefield.

欢迎收听《Chat With Traders》，今天嘉宾是从阳光海岸来的尼克·拉奇。

This is Chat With Traders, and here is today's guest from the Sunshine Coast, Nick Radge.

嗨，尼克。

Hey, Nick.

很高兴你来参加节目。

Awesome to have you here.

谢谢你能来参加节目。

Thanks for coming on the show.

谢谢，亚伦。

Thanks, Aaron.

能跟我们说说，1985年你刚开始的时候是什么情况吗？

So take us back to where it all started in 1985 for you.

你是怎么第一次接触到市场的？当时是什么吸引到了你？

How did you first discover the markets, and what was it that really appealed to you?

我当时在学校就是个普通学生，没上大学，毕业时根本不知道自己想干什么。后来一个朋友的朋友在一家大型证券公司工作，介绍我去那儿当文员，就是干些整理文件的活儿。

Well I was an average student in school, I didn't go to university, I really had no idea what I wanted to do when I left school and a friend of a friend worked at a big stockbroking firm and offered me a job as a clerk there just pushing paper.

那时候我对股市一点兴趣都没有，但那是在城里上班，我就去了，结果还挺喜欢的。

I had no interest in stock market or anything like that at the time but it was a job in the city so I went along and quite enjoyed it.

我说了，那会儿就是跑跑腿、整理文件，跟市场本身没关系。不过有一天我路过公司私人客户部，看到一位先生正拿着图表纸，画着红蓝两条线，我一下就被吸引了，就问他这是干嘛的。他给我演示了一下，原来是个基于股指期货价格的五日和十日均线交叉策略。

As I said it was pushing paper it wasn't anything to do with the markets but I had a stroll through the private client desk or private client area of that stockbroking firm and came across a gentleman who had some chart paper and was drawing some red and blue lines on that chart paper and it just kind of intrigued me and I asked him what he was doing and he showed me and basically it was a five and ten day moving average crossover strategy on the share price index futures.

我当时就一眼看出了趋势所在。

And I could just see the trends right there.

他说，当一条线穿过另一条时就买入，穿回去就卖出。1985年那会儿市场正处于强劲牛市，趋势特别明显。

He was saying when one crosses over you buy and when it crosses back you sell and back in 1985 it was a pretty strong bull market so there was some nice trends showing there.

所以到了下班时，我去文具店买了自己的图表纸和红笔、蓝笔、黑笔，从那以后就开始自己画图了。

So by the end of the day I kind of had gone down to the stationery shop and bought my own chart paper and red pen, blue pen, black pen and from that point I just started plotting it.

说不上来为什么，但就是突然开窍了，一切都变得清晰了。

And I don't know what it was but something just clicked and it made sense.

几周后，我去老威利公司的办公室经理那儿，问他能不能给我开个期货交易账户。现在回头看挺傻的，那时候标普指数期货每跳动一点要100美元，我年收入才一万二左右。他皱了皱眉，说行吧，但每笔交易都得我签字同意。就这样，我开始了交易。

And then a few weeks later I went into the old Wiley office manager and asked him if I could set up a trading account to trade futures which was quite stupid in hindsight because back then the SPY was a $100 a tick and I was only earning about $12,000 a year so he kind of frowned a little bit and said okay well so long as I sign off on each ticket and that's how I started trading.

明白了。

Okay.

太好了。

Excellent.

你这就正式入行了。

So you're right into it.

那你早期遇到过哪些挫折？

What was some of the early setbacks you encountered?

所以你一开始就是用自己的账户在交易。

So you were trading your personal account straight away.

你从来没在公司里当过交易员，对吧？

You weren't you weren't at the firm as a trader at any point were you?

没有，完全没做过。

No, absolutely not.

我根本没做过任何交易，虽然楼上货币市场部确实有交易员，我那时只是帮他们处理 paperwork，但我在的交易大厅里全是经纪人——有零售经纪，也有机构经纪，我从来没想过往那条路走，一切只是自然而然发生，我觉得挺有意思的。

Didn't have any trade, well they did have some traders upstairs on the money market desk and that's the paperwork I was pushing there to kind of trading activity but on the floor that I was working on it was just all brokers so they had retail brokers and they had institutional brokers and I never really had any inspiration to go that way, it was just all kind of happening around me and it was just interesting.

明白，好的。

Sure, okay.

那你开始用自己的账户交易后，情况怎么样？

So once you did start trading with your own personal account, how did you go with that?

是运气好开局顺利，还是一开始也遇到不少挫折和昂贵的教训？你是怎么过来的？

Were you sort of bit of beginners luck or was there you know some early setbacks and expensive learning lessons in there or how'd you go?

是啊，1985年的时候，跟现在完全不一样。

Yeah, well back in 1985 you know it was very different to what we have today.

那时候当然没有互联网。

I mean obviously we didn't have the internet back then.

也没有现在这么多课程、讲座、书籍、交易杂志、数据和软件这些东西。

We didn't have the myriads of courses and seminars and books and trading magazines and data and software and all the stuff that you have today.

我记得很清楚，那时候想买一本真正的交易书，只能寄信去美国要目录，等三周才收到，那目录还是黑白的，寄出去后得等六到八周，书才会慢慢寄到，那时候基本就靠这个。

Back then I remember vividly the only way you could get a real trading book was request a catalog from The US which would take three weeks to get to you then you know it was a little black and white catalog for books and then you'd send one off and six weeks later or eight weeks later a book would turn up in the mail and that was predominantly it back then.

所以我根本不懂自己在做什么。

So I had no idea what I was doing.

没有资金管理，什么都没有。

I had no money management, no nothing.

我只懂用五日和十日均线交叉，再加上一个牛市，靠的全是运气。

All I had was a five and ten day moving average crossover and a bull market and that's where the luck came from.

我最早的失误，大概就是有点贪心了。

I guess my early setback was just when a little bit of greed set in.

那时候买股票，结算要两周，你买了股票，两周内都不用付钱，而那时候股市在两周内能涨跌得特别厉害。

Back in those days you had a two week settlement period if you bought a share you didn't have to give anybody any money for two weeks And of course the share market back then moved a long way in two weeks.

所以我们发现了一个小漏洞，差不多就是趁那两周不用付钱的空档做交易。赚了点小钱，感觉像是白拿的，就越做越大。结果呢，1987年股市崩盘了。

So we found a little bit of a loophole if you like and started trading in and around this loophole where you didn't have to pay for your shares for two weeks and you know after you make a little bit of money and you've seem to be making this free money then you just get bigger and bigger and bigger and of course you know then the 1987 stock market hit.

我很快就付出了极其昂贵的代价，学到了一课。

So I learned a very very expensive lesson very very quickly.

那时候年轻无知，什么都不懂，这种事迟早都会发生。

But young and stupid and not knowing what I was doing, that's what was to be expected at some stage.

那之后，我好多年都没再碰过交易。

After that I didn't do any trading for quite a number of years.

明白了。

Okay, sure.

那后来是什么让你重新回到市场里的？

So what sort of led you back into it?

那几年之后，你有去系统学习过吗？

You know, after that those few years, did you get an education?

你是怎么慢慢重新上手的？

You know, how'd you sort of ease back into it?

到那时候，我已经在公司里上班了，一开始在后台，我说过，后来去了悉尼期货交易所的交易大厅，那里有各种类型的交易员。

Well by that stage I was actually working in the business so I started off in the back office as I said but then went down to the trading Floor of the Sydney futures exchange and down there there was different kinds of traders.

当然有短线客和日内交易者，还有很多机构交易员，主要是银行的人过来做对冲之类的操作。

You obviously had the scalpers and the day traders and then you also had a lot of institutional traders, bank traders coming in mainly putting hedges on and that kind of stuff.

还有大型基金，那时候对冲基金行业或者当时叫的CTA行业，都还处于非常早期的阶段。

And then you also had the big funds and back then really it was early days for the hedge fund industry or the CTA industry as it was back then.

我们经常看到他们的交易进入场内，我特别感兴趣，因为他们完全是靠系统操作的，我以前从没接触过这种东西。

And we used to see their business come into the pit and I was quite intrigued because they were a 100% systematic in what they were doing and I'd never been exposed to that before.

这让我特别着迷，因为他们用的是计算机模型，从那时起，我开始投入更多时间和精力做研究。

And that really interested me because they were obviously running computer models and that's where I started doing a lot more work and a lot more research.

我们办公室有个叫戈登·曼宁的人，他有一台可以做历史回测的电脑。

We had a gentleman, Gordon Manning in our office who had a computer that you were able to back test on.

我记得每天下班后都会去那个房间，把数据输进电脑，那时候一按按钮，关上门，就得等第二天再来，因为机器只会吐出一摞纸，然后我得一张张翻看回测结果。

And I remember going in after work each day and sitting in this room and plugging stuff into this computer and back then you'd push the button and close the door and have to come back in the morning sort out all the paper because it would just spit out paper and then go through all the back test results.

所以，一方面是看到这些大型系统化趋势跟踪者进场操作，另一方面是办公室里能用电脑做回测，这两样东西让我重新对这个领域产生了兴趣。

So it was the combination of seeing these big systematic trend followers come into the market and what they were doing and also having access in the office to a computer that you could do some back testing with and that's how it really got started for me again.

所以这么说，很大程度上你是自学的？

Okay so it sounds like a lot of it was sort of self taught to a certain extent?

完全是自学的。

Absolutely 100% self taught.

没错，我没有任何正规学历，就像我说的，我没上过大学，也没参加过任何技术分析或交易课程。

Yeah I have no formal qualifications in any way shape or form as I said I didn't go to university, I've never done any kind of technical analysis courses or any trading courses or anything like that.

完全是自学的，这一切都源于我亲身参与这个行业，无论是个人还是职业层面，而且是带着热情。

100% self taught and it's all from being involved in the business both personally and professionally and with a passion.

我认为这正是关键的区别。

I think that's the key difference right there.

你得有热情，因为只要你真心热爱一件事，就一定能找到办法把它做成。

Think you've got to have the passion because if you have the passion for something you will find a way to make it work.

没错，我完全同意这一点。

Absolutely, yeah, no, I agree with that one.

你这个观点说得真好。

That's really good point you make.

那我们来聊聊你的交易风格吧。

So let's sort of talk a little bit about your trading style.

你把自己定义为趋势跟踪交易者。

You define yourself as a trend following trader.

那你是怎么理解这个概念的呢？

So how how do you describe that?

跟其他那些交易方式相比，它有什么优势？

And what are some of the benefits of it versus sort of the other sort of trading styles out there?

当然可以。

Sure.

说到趋势跟踪，我最容易想到的比喻就是搭便车。

The easiest analogy I can come up with for trend following is like being a hitchhiker.

我们不是在预测市场，不分析个股，也不用任何基本面信息。

And we're not predicting the market, we're not analyzing shares, we're not using any fundamentals in any way shape or form.

归根结底，不管你是基本面投资者、价值投资者，还是别的什么类型，赚钱的本质都是价格变动——价格必须从A点移动到B点，才能产生利润。

At the end of the day any kind of trading whether you're a fundamental investor, value investor or whatever the profit is made from price movement, price has to move from A to B in order to generate a profit.

归根结底，怎么达到并不重要，驱动因素是什么也不重要，关键是要赚钱，价格就必须从A点移动到B点。

That is the bottom line, it doesn't matter how it gets there, what drives it but in order to turn a profit price has to move from A to B.

作为趋势交易者，我们只关心价格从A到B、或者B到C这样的趋势走向，不管它具体去哪儿。

So as a trend follower that's all we're actually interested in following the trend from prices moving from A to B or B to C wherever it may be.

如果用搭便车来打比方，假设你人在布里斯班，要搭车去北边的凯恩斯。

And if we use the analogy I guess of a hitchhiker, let's say you're in Brisbane and we need to hitchhike to Cairns which is in the North.

那我们第一件事就是站在布鲁斯高速的北行车道旁，因为开往凯恩斯的车，更可能走北行线，而不是南行线。

So the first thing we're going to do is stand on the northbound lanes of the Bruce Highway for the simple reason that a car that is going to Cairns is more likely to be traveling in the northbound lane than in the southbound lane.

在股票市场里，我们也是一样，直接站在价格运动的正确方向上，就等着机会来。

So with the stock market, what we do is we position ourselves in the right direction of the price movement right there.

搭便车的下一个要点是，我们不知道哪辆车会停下来。

The next thing with the hitchhiking analogy is that we don't know what car is going to stop.

但只要在路边等得够久，我们知道总会有车停下来的，股票市场也是一样。

But if we stand on the side of the road for long enough, we do know a car will eventually stop and same with the stock market.

我们不知道哪只股票会涨，但我们清楚，总会有某只股票在某个时候上涨。

We don't know what stock is actually going to go up but we do know somewhere sometime a stock will be going up.

一旦我们上了这趟车，就不知道它会在哪儿停下。

And then once we jump on board that ride, we don't know where it's going to stop.

比如，我们在布里斯班上车，不知道车会不会在努萨停下，会不会继续开到罗克汉普顿、汤斯维尔，或者运气好的话，直接开到凯恩斯。

So for example, if we hop on a ride in Brisbane, we don't know if it's gonna stop here in Noosa, we don't know if it's gonna keep going to Rockhampton, Townsville or maybe if we're lucky it'll go all the way to Cairns.

股市也是一样，我们不知道股价能涨多远，但只要趋势还在继续，我们就一直跟着，一旦方向反转，立刻下车。

And same with the stock market, we don't know how far the share price is going to go but we will stay on that ride so long as it keeps going in the right direction and as soon as it turns around we will hop off.

所以我们赚钱的基本逻辑是：赶上一趟长时间的行情，就能赚大钱；赶上不好的行情，损失也有限。

The basic premise of how we make money therefore is that when we get on a ride that lasts a long time we make a lot of money and when we get on a ride that doesn't do well we only lose a small amount of money.

我们可能只有50%的准确率，对普通人来说，这听起来不算成功，但数学上我们赚得多亏得少——对的时候赚三块，错的时候只亏一块，就这么靠数学优势赚钱。

So look we may only get it right 50% of the time and to the average person that probably doesn't represent a great deal of success but mathematically we make a lot more money on those 50% that we're right, we might make you know $3 on each one and when we're wrong we only lose one dollar So mathematically that's how we make money.

在我看来，这是最简单易懂的思路，也是在市场里赚钱最直接的方式。

And in my view that's the easiest concept to understand, it's the easiest way to actually generate money in the markets.

心理上有点难熬，因为这样的机会不是天天都有。

Psychologically it's a little bit difficult because these rides don't come along every day.

尤其是股市，往往会出现高度联动的情况：有时候一大波股票都涨得不错，赚得盆满钵满；但也有时候市场横盘震荡，机会全无，那种感觉特别煎熬。

The stock market especially offers quite high correlation So you will have periods of time where lots of stocks are moving very very well and you make a lot of money but then there will also be periods of times when the stock markets kind of moving sideways and some of those rides aren't available and that can be very very frustrating.

但你得同时看到问题的两面。

But you've got to take both sides of the equation.

你知道，世界本来就是这样。

Know, that's just the way the world works.

没错。

Absolutely.

对，你刚才说得特别到位。

Yeah, you described that really well.

我稍微回退一下说清楚。

I might just backtrack a little bit there.

你提到交易的时候，亏的都很少。

You mentioned when you trade you only lose a small amount.

你怎么保证亏的真的就只是一点点呢？

How do you ensure that is only a small amount?

进场之前，你是不是早就设好了止损？

Have you got your stop losses in order before you even enter the market?

我的意思是，你怎么确定自己只会亏这么一点呢？

I mean, how do you determine that you're only going to lose that small amount?

当然。

Sure.

我们所有操作都是提前规划好的。

Well, everything we do is planned in advance.

这种规划通常体现为某种公式或数学模型。

And that planning comes in the format of some kind of a formula or mathematical equation.

比如我们会简单地决定：买下这只股票，就叫它XYZ吧。

So we might say something very simple that we're going to buy this stock, let's call it stock XYZ.

只要股价上涨，我们就持有；但如果股价下跌超过10%，我们就立刻退出。

We will follow the ride so long as it moves up but if it moves down against us by let's call it 10% then we will exit that position.

单看一只股票，亏10%听起来不少，但正因如此，我们才会持有一整组股票。

So 10% loss sounds like a lot on an individual stock but that's why we buy a portfolio of stocks.

所以实际上，每次亏损只占我们交易本金的0.5%左右，甚至可能只有0.8%。

So in reality each time we have a loss it only represents half a percent or maybe even 0.8 of 1% of loss of our trading capital.

所以我们的亏损都非常小，但如果那只股票继续上涨，我们有时能赚到10%、20%、30%甚至50%、60%。最近我们就刚退出了一笔澳洲联邦银行的交易，最终赚了87%。

So all our losses are very very small but if that stock keeps moving higher we might make 102030405060% sometimes just recently we exited a trade in the Commonwealth Bank where we finished up with an 87% profit.

我们盈利的金额，有时候能达到风险的四到五倍，甚至十倍。

So from the amount we win can sometimes be four or five, ten times as much as the risk on the trade.

只要长期坚持这样做，我们最终一定会赢。

And so long as we keep doing that over the longer term, we'll always be ahead.

当然，关键就在于赚的要比亏的多。

Of course, yeah, it's all about winning more than you lose.

没错。

That's right.

止损也不需要搞得那么复杂。

And the stop loss doesn't have to be anything complex.

很多人喜欢把事情弄得很复杂，但其实没必要。核心在于：市场上涨时保持持仓，市场下跌时就转成现金。

I think people like making things complex, but it doesn't have to be that the key trait here is one to remain invested when the market is going up and revert to cash when it's going down.

这才是关键。

That's a key component.

其次，确保长期来看，你的盈利远远超过亏损。

And second of all, making sure your profits far outweigh your losses over the longer term.

这就是核心要点。

And that's the bottom line.

其实没必要搞得那么复杂。

It doesn't have to really be any more complex than that.

是的，我听过你好几次在不同场合说过，交易其实很简单。

Yeah, I've heard you say that trading is really simple a few times in sort of different talks you've had and that kind of thing.

你觉得为什么有些人会把它想得那么复杂呢？

Why do you think people, do you think that people sometimes overcomplicate it?

确实，我觉得人们并不是故意把事情搞复杂了。

Definitely, think people believe that well it's not necessarily that they overcomplicate it.

我认为人们没意识到，这条路不是线性的，不可能每天、每周、每月、每年都能赚钱。

I think that people don't understand that it's not a linear journey, it's not something that's going to make you money every day, every week, every month, every year.

这世上没有什么事情是能一直稳定赚钱的。

Nothing is like that in the world, know.

不管你投资房产，还是做基本面投资或价值投资，都没关系。

It doesn't matter if you invest in property, it doesn't matter if you're a fundamental or value investor.

沃伦·巴菲特并不是每天、每周、每月都能赚钱。

Warren Buffett does not make money every day, every week, every month.

事实上，沃伦·巴菲特也有亏钱的年份，有时候亏得还相当多。

In fact Warren Buffett does have losing years and sometimes he has significantly large losing years.

这本来就是现实，但很多人误以为职业交易员必须每天、每周、每月、每年都能赚钱。

It's a fact of life but I think what happens with a lot of people is they have some kind of vision of a professional trader makes money every day, every week, every month and every year.

当然，世界上确实有人能做到这一点，但同样，你完全可以在不这么做的情况下依然非常成功，赚大钱，变得极其富有。

Look, I'm sure there are people out there that do that But by the same token, you can be very successful and you can make a lot of money and become very, very wealthy without that.

这根本不是必须的。

It's just not necessary.

第八大奇迹就是复利。

Know, the eighth wonder of the world is compounding.

沃伦·巴菲特之所以变得如此富有，不是因为他每年都能赚100%的回报。

And that's how Warren Buffett has become so wealthy not because he makes a 100% returns every year.

你知道吗，过去十五年他的年化收益率其实只有百分之八到九左右。

You know, his annualized return well over the last fifteen years has only been about eight or 9%.

但过去四十年到五十年，平均下来大概是百分之十九。

But over the last forty, fifty years it's been about 19%.

对于普通老百姓来说，我觉得大概分两种人。

Now for the average man in the street I guess there's two kinds.

一种人觉得要想成功，每年必须赚百分之百，这根本不对。

You've got the people that think to be successful you've got to be making a 100% a year and that's just not true.

这类人通常更没耐心，总想快点发财，结果往往失败。

But they tend to be a lot more impatient and want things quicker and they tend to be the ones that fail.

还有一种人比较成熟，阅历丰富，大多是中年人，他们明白成功的秘诀在于长期坚持，而不是急着赚快钱。

And then you've got the more mature, been around the block, middle aged kind of people that realise that the secret to success is being there for the long term not necessarily making a lot of money very very quickly.

所以，耐心对很多人来说真的很难做到。

So patience is very very difficult for a lot of people to come to.

对。

Right.

是的，这很有道理。

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

我以前也听你多次提到过，你把交易分成定量和定性两种方式来看。

Something else I've heard you talk about a few times also is your way of viewing trades as quantitative versus qualitative.

你能不能稍微解释一下？我觉得这个观点特别有意思，而且可能被讨论得还不够多。

Do you want to maybe shed a little bit of light on that because I thought it was really interesting and probably something that isn't talked about as much as maybe it probably should be.

当然可以。

Sure, absolutely.

说实话，我认识的人里几乎没人谈这个。

Look, I don't know too many people that talk about it at all.

我早在2009年的一场墨尔本会议上就讲过这个观点。

I presented this back in 2009 at a conference in Melbourne.

在我看来，这是整个交易体系中非常关键的一部分。

And to me it's a significant part of the whole equation.

交易其实有两个方面。

So we've got two sides to trading.

第一种我们可以叫量化交易，这些都是你在任何书本、任何研讨会里都能看到的明确规则。

The first side we can call quantitative and these are hard and fast rules that you will read about in any book, in any seminar that you attend or anything like that.

而这类内容大概占了市面上所有交易资料的95%。

And it's it probably represents 95% of all material on trading out there.

举个例子，比如别冒超过账户2%的风险。

So as an example, let's use something like don't risk more than 2% of your account.

这是个很常见的规则，叫固定比例仓位管理，技术上就这么叫，人人都在谈。

Okay, it's a common rule, fixed fractional position sizing, it's technically known as everybody talks about it.

所有书里都有提到。

It's in all the books.

这种规则是可以被复制的。

It's something that you can actually replicate.

比如移动平均线交叉，这也是个量化策略。

A moving average crossover for example, be another quantitative trait.

它能被复制，能被清楚看到，谁都能做，谁都能接触到。

It's something that you can replicate, you can physically see, anybody can do it, anybody has access to it.

所以，你在交易书籍里看到的那些可以照着做的东西，都叫量化特征。

So anything you come across in a trading book that you can do would be called a quantitative trait.

大多数人觉得，交易就只是这些而已。

And most people believe that's all there is to trading.

比如止损、让利润奔跑、突破时买入、顺势交易——这些方法听起来都能成功。

So if we cut losses, let profits run, buy breakouts, trade a trend will all be successful.

从量化角度来看，确实没错。

Well that is the case from a quantitative perspective, yes.

但还有一种叫作定性视角的方法，我认为这才是专业交易员和业余交易员的关键区别。

But then we have what's called the qualitative perspective and this I believe is the difference between professional traders and amateur traders.

说到定性，我们可以用开车来打个比方，比如教青少年开车。

Qualitative is let's use the analogy of driving or teaching a teenager how to drive a car.

这个我最近刚经历过。

Okay, which is something that I've recently been through.

教青少年开车的量化部分，就是踩刹车停下，踩油门前进，向左打方向盘左转，向右打方向盘右转。

So the quantitative sides of teaching a teenager how to drive a car would be put your foot on the brake to stop, put your foot on the accelerator to go forward, turn the wheel to the left to go left, turn the wheel to the right to go right.

那些青少年实际能动手做出来的操作。

Things that your teenager can physically actually replicate and do.

这就是量化部分。

So that's the quantitative.

而定性方面，比如你怎么教青少年识别路上的危险情况？

With the qualitative it's things like how do you teach a teenager to understand a dangerous situation on the road?

我们有经验，就能感觉到什么时候情况危险。

Okay, as we have experience we can feel when a situation is dangerous.

能感觉到车流变快、距离变近，诸如此类。

We can feel that the traffic is getting faster and closer and whatever.

但如果没有经验、没有那种直觉，该怎么教青少年呢？

But how do you teach a teenager that when they don't have the experience, don't have the feel?

你怎么教他们，在雨天路面会很滑，必须减速，能感觉到车子打滑，能察觉到局面正在失控？

How do you teach a teenager that during wet conditions it's going to be very slippery, you've got to slow down, you can feel the car sliding if you like, you can feel that situation getting out of control.

这些都是定性的部分。说到交易，我们谈的是怎么让人明白，你得连续亏十次。

These are qualitative things and when we talk about trading, we're talking about how do you teach someone that you've got to have 10 losses in a row.

你可以告诉别人你会连续输十次，但真正经历十连败后，又收到一个信号，心里犹豫要不要跟单——因为对这个策略已经没信心了，这种感觉完全是另一回事，这没法教。

You can tell someone you will have 10 losses in a row, but the feeling of having 10 losses a row then getting another signal and thinking, gee, do I take this signal or not because I'm not feeling very good about this strategy is a very, different thing and you cannot teach that.

那些无法传授的素质，正是大多数人卡住的地方。

So the qualitative traits are things that you can't really teach and these represent the hurdles that most people get stuck on.

比如，很多人以为交易是线性的。

So for example, most people think trading is linear I.

嗯。

E.

他们觉得每周、每月、每年都能赚钱，但现实根本不是这样。

They make money every week, every month, every year but that's not the case in reality.

就算你有最赚钱的交易系统，也照样可能亏上一整年。

So even if you have the most profitable trading system, you may still have a losing year.

每天、每周、每月都坚持交易，整整一年却亏钱，而且没拿到任何回报，这种心理压力真的很难承受。

Now, it's very difficult to place trades every single day, every single week, every single month for a whole year and have a losing year because you haven't been paid for your effort.

但这就是人们必须明白的事实。

And but this is what people need to understand will be the case.

所以我克服这些困难的方式，是去研究在我之前，很多交易员是怎么走过来的。

So the way I get over these kinds of things is that I research how the journey is traveled by many traders before me.

你可以查到许多优秀交易员过去二三十年、甚至四十年的交易记录和业绩报告。

So you can access the track records and performance reports of many great traders going back for twenty, thirty, forty years.

然后你就可以仔细看看这些数据。

And you can have a look at them.

美国有一位叫大卫·德鲁斯的先生。

There's a gentleman in The US, David Drews.

他从1981年就开始交易了。

He has been trading since 1981.

扣除绩效费用后，他的年化收益率超过了17%，我觉得是这样。

He has an annualized return of in excess of I think 17% after performance fees have come out.

这真是非常了不起的业绩记录。

Now that is an exceptional track record.

但你可以回溯他从1981年至今每年的月度收益，这样就能真正理解，他是经历了多少起伏才拿到这么好的回报的。

But you can go back and have a look at his monthly returns every single year through to 1981 and that gives you a good understanding of what he has had to go through in order to achieve that very good return.

我觉得大多数人并不会这么做。

And I don't think that's what people, most people will not do.

他们无法接受，即使你是世界上最好的交易员，也可能有一年亏钱。

They don't accept that you can be one of the world's best traders and have a losing year.

就拿大卫·德鲁斯来说，依我记忆，他职业生涯中至少有五六年是亏钱的。

In fact someone like David Drews from memory I think he's had five or six losing years in his career.

但人们总觉得，亏钱年份跟成功的交易员扯不上关系。

But people don't view a losing year as a trait of a successful trader.

所以，一旦你真正明白这其实就是现实，面对这些挫折时，你就能从容多了。

So as soon as you come to understand that that is actually the reality of it all, then you're in a much better position to be able to deal with those hurdles when they come along.

这些挫折迟早都会来，每个人都会遇到。

And they will come along, they come along for everybody.

我觉得人们对这个世界有误解。

So I think people have the wrong view of the world.

当然，很多人被灌输了错误的信息，但你其实可以去查这些顶尖交易员的业绩记录。

Obviously many people have been fed incorrect information but you can go and access the track records of these great traders.

就连沃伦·巴菲特，你也可以回过头去看看他的收益记录，看看他经历过什么。

Even Warren Buffett, you can go back and take a look at his returns, see what he's been through.

我们不妨回想一下沃伦·巴菲特，他在90年代末拒绝投资科技股，那是个很好的例子。

Let's have a think back to Warren Buffett, the great example in the late 90s when he rejected investing in tech stocks.

那时候人人都说他跟不上时代了，巅峰期已经过去，完了。

Back then everybody said that he'd lost the plot, he's had his day in the sun, it's all over.

但归根结底，这根本无关紧要。

But at the end of the day it didn't matter.

这并没有影响他的长期回报。

It didn't affect his long term return.

所以我觉得，那些无法传授的素质才是关键——比如经历亏损周期，或者连续下两百单都没赚到钱，这种事确实会发生。

So I think the qualitative traits, things that you can't teach, having a losing streak is one thing, having a losing period of time, placing 200 orders and not making any money, well that happens you know.

我们可以试着找找这些交易员的业绩记录，放到节目笔记里，我觉得挺有意思的。

We might try and find some of those track records and put them in the show notes because I think they're quite interesting.

我看过一些案例，当你把时间拉近到某一年，确实能看到那一年是亏损的，但拉长来看，整体趋势还是稳步向上的。

I've seen like when you actually sort of zoom into a certain section as you mentioned like one year, you can sort of see in the shorter term how it was a losing year but in overall as the years go by it's you know a nice up curve.

所以我觉得把这些放进去节目笔记里挺好的，真的挺有意思。

So I think we'll put those in the show notes because they're really interesting.

是的，最近我就在看一个很好的例子，也把它加进去了，Campbell and Co 是美国一家大型基金，管理着超过20亿美元的资产，可不是小角色。

Yeah, mean, a good example recently I was looking at and certainly added in there, Campbell and Co is a big fund in The US and they manage over $2,000,000,000 So it's not small cheese.

这可是巨资了。

I mean, it's big money.

他们经历过好几年的盘整，但这家公司从1971年就开始运营了。

They have had a number of years of going sideways but they've been in business since 1971.

他们从不改变自己的策略。

They don't change what they do.

他们只是接受，这是必经之路。

They just accept that that's part of the journey.

如果我们把这放到交易之外的现实生活中来看，比如航空公司。

I guess if we look at that in real life outside of trading, let's think of something like airlines.

就拿澳洲航空来说吧。

Let's think of something like Qantas.

我现在敢肯定，你走在街上，大多数人会说，他们最不想拥有的就是航空公司的股票。

I mean at the moment I'm pretty sure you can walk down the street and most people would tell you the last thing they want to own is an airline stock.

但我们没看到澳洲航空去搞铁矿石开采，也没见它去碰科技或者银行业这些别的行当。

But we don't see Qantas getting into iron ore mining or we don't see them getting into any kind of technology or into banking or anything different.

他们就是一家航空公司，专注做航空业务，但也明白这个行业有好时候，也有差时候。

They are an airline that's what they do but they understand that sometimes the airline business goes through good periods and bad periods.

他们不会因为市场波动就改变自己的做法。

They don't change what they're doing.

再比如杰里·哈维的哈维·诺曼，零售业也有起有落，但他从不因为一时的行情就改掉自己的商业模式。

Let's know, Jerry Harvey with Harvey Norman, retailing goes through good periods and bad periods but he doesn't change his business model just because of that.

我们可以回想起全球金融危机那会儿，那时候你最不想做的就是当个银行家。

We can look back to the GFC and the last thing you wanted to be was a bank.

但他们挺过来了，大多数都熬过来了。

But they endured, they got through that, most of them did anyway.

现在，它们全都依然是非常非常成功的企业。

And now they're all still very, very successful companies.

他们没有改变自己的商业模式。

They didn't change their business model.

我觉得很多人一进交易市场，带着那种主观想法，一旦遇到点困难就彻底换方向，去追别的东西，这种兜圈子似的做法，说白了就是一直在找什么终极秘诀，最终反而把自己拖垮了。

So I think what happens when most people come to the trading arena with the qualitative traits when things get a little bit tough they change direction completely and they go for something else and that roundabout if you like just going around and around in circles looking for the holy grail is what actually undoes them in the long term.

是的，他们困在了你所说的初学者循环里。

Yeah they get stuck on what you've called the beginner's cycle.

说得太对了。

Exactly right.

所以当你谈到坚持度过亏损期的时候，是不是有个临界点？

So there must be a point when you talk about riding out these losing streaks.

有些人说，如果你连续亏了三四笔，就得停下来，退一步，重新评估自己的策略，比如回测一段时间，或者用模拟盘练练，反正就是先别真金白银地操作。

Some people say you you take three or four, if you take three or four losing trades you need to stop, step back, reassess what you're doing and you know, maybe back test for a while, paper trade, just whatever that might be.

你的意思好像是，不管怎样都得继续坚持，该下单就下单，别停。

You're sort of saying that you just sort of got to push on through it, just keep pushing that button and executing.

机会出现的时候，难道就没有一个时候，你得停下来想想：这招不管用？

As the opportunities come up, is there a point when you sort of got to step back and say this isn't working?

没错，你一开始交易之前，最重要的是得搞清楚你的策略为什么能赚钱。

Yes, you've got to firstly and foremost before you even start trading is understand why your strategy will make money.

这一点是关键。

Okay that's the key right there.

如果你不明白你的策略凭什么赚钱，等到真遇到困难时，就很难坚持下去了。

If you don't know why your strategy is making money then you're going to find it very difficult to keep pushing forward when the time comes.

比如，我们拿一个简单的趋势跟踪策略来说，它只做多股票。

So for example let's take a basic trend following strategy that trades long only in equities.

我们知道，它的盈利靠的是让利润奔跑，同时快速止损。

So we know that our mathematical expectancy is creating by riding trains and cutting them, cutting the losses short.

这就是我们赚钱的方式。

So that's how we make money.

但我们也清楚，股市有时候会经历下跌期，那时我们可能空仓；或者进入盘整，反复震荡，吃点小亏。

But we can also know intuitively know that sometimes the stock market will go through periods where it's either going down and we may stay in cash or it's trendless and go sideways and we have a little bit of a whipsaw.

这几年澳大利亚的小盘股指数就经历过这样的阶段。

Now that's something that's happened in the small ordinaries here in Australia over the last couple of years.

澳大利亚的小盘指数现在基本和四五年前持平，一直在横盘整理。

The small ordinaries is basically the same level as it was four or five years ago so it has been trading sideways.

所以中间会有一些短暂的窗口期。

So there are small windows of time in there.

我记得2010年最后一个季度，趋势跟踪策略在三个月里赚了24%，而那一年剩下的八九个月几乎一无所获。

I remember the last quarter of twenty ten as an example where in a three month period of time the trend following model made about 24% return and for the other eight, nine months of the year did absolutely nothing.

我接触过的大多数人，对24%的回报都会很满意。

So most people I've come across would be pretty happy for a 24% return.

这点毫无疑问。

No doubt about that.

但大多数人也很难忍受连续八个月干等着，只为等那短短三个月的好机会。

But most people also come across are not happy sitting there for eight months waiting for that great three month period to come along.

所以回到你刚才的问题，你必须清楚你的策略为什么能赚钱。

So to get back to your question, you have to know why your strategy makes money.

这才是关键。

That's the key.

如果你同时做十件事，却完全不明白为什么能赚钱，那你就得改了。

If you're doing 10 different things and you have no idea why that is making money then you've got to change that.

你必须搞清楚背后的原因。

You've got to understand why.

一旦你明白了为什么你的系统能赚钱，就能回答为什么在某些时期表现不佳了。

And once you understand why your system will make money then you can start to answer questions as to why it's not doing so well during those periods of time.

我知道为什么趋势跟踪策略在资源股上现在表现不好，因为资源板块整体低迷，还在下跌。

So again, I know why a trend following model in the resource stocks wouldn't be doing particularly well at the moment because the resource sector is underwater and going down.

这不代表策略本身出了问题。

It doesn't mean the model is broken.

只是它暂时和市场不同步，总有一天会重新对上节奏。

It just means that it's out of sync with the market and one day it will come back into sync.

很多新手会试图避开这些阶段，但专业人士不会躲，他们知道这是必经之路。

So what a lot of amateurs try and do is avoid those periods of time whereas a professional doesn't avoid them, they accept that that's part of the journey.

与其逃避这些阶段，不如再搭配一两个其他策略，让不同策略在不同市场环境下各自赚钱。

And rather than avoid those periods of time, what you should do is add a secondary or a third system or strategy to the mix so you have different strategies doing different things that make money in different environments.

我觉得很多人都想完全避开痛苦。

I think a lot of people want to avoid the pain completely.

我猜避开痛苦是人之常情，但与其逃避，不如坚持下去，多加几种策略来分散风险。

I mean I guess that's natural human tendency to avoid the pain but rather than avoid the pain what you should do is keep pushing through and add more strategies to the mix to diversify.

好的，你说到策略，具体是指什么？

Okay, so when you say strategies, what do you mean by that?

比如学习更多的买入信号，或者寻找不同的模式和形态。

Like learning sort of extra buying signals or looking for different patterns and setups.

你能再详细解释一下吗？

Do you want to just elaborate on that a little bit?

当然可以。

Sure, yeah.

就我个人而言，在澳大利亚股市，我的核心策略是趋势跟踪模型。

So personally for example, my core strategy in the Australian share market is the trend following model.

这构成了我参与澳大利亚市场的主力部分。

That is my core exposure to the Australian market.

这是一个突破型策略，意思是涨了就买，跌了就卖。

It's a breakout model which means we buy strength, sell weakness.

平均持仓时间是六到八个月，我们主要交易ASX 100之外的小盘股。

It has an average holding period of six to eight months and we tend to trade small cap stocks outside of the ASX 100.

这就是这个策略的基本逻辑。

So that's the basic premise of that model.

在美国市场，我还用一种短期均值回归策略。

Then in The US market, I also run a short term mean reversion strategy.

这两者在很多方面都截然不同。

So very different in many aspects.

第一，它只交易美国市场，具体来说是标普500的股票，完全是另一个市场。

One, it's trading The US market specifically the S and P 500 stocks, so completely different market.

第二，交易风格也完全不一样，不是追突破，而是逢低买入。

Second of all, it's trading a completely different style rather than buying breakouts, it's actually buying dips.

它是趁弱买入，而不是等突破。

It's buying into weakness rather than breakouts.

它的交易频率高得多。

It is doing a lot more frequent trading.

这个策略一年要做八百到一千笔交易，比趋势跟踪模型每年二十多笔要稳定不少。

So we do 800 to a thousand trades a year in that strategy, which gives us a little bit more consistency rather than the 25 odd trades in the trend following model.

平均持仓时间只有三天。

And lastly, the average hold time is only three days.

你这样在不同市场、不同周期、不同风格之间做了分散，回报特征和趋势跟踪模型完全不同。

So you're diversifying across different markets, timeframes, different styles, all sorts of different things and you're getting a completely different return profile than you would with a trend following model.

去年就是个很好的例子。

So rather than, and last year is a very good example.

去年我用在澳大利亚的趋势跟踪模型，收益率大概是负12%，这是自金融危机以来少有的亏损年份。

So last year I think the trend following model that I use in Australia I think had a minus 12% year, one of the first losing years we've had since the GFC.

很多人可能会觉得，这样不行，得换别的策略。

Now a lot of people would say well that's not good enough, I'll go on to something else.

但对我们来说，这本来就是交易的一部分，而我们的美国模型去年回报率却达到了22%到45%。

Whereas that's part and parcel of the journey we're trading but The US model or our US models made anywhere between 2245% return last year.

所以一个模型在某个市场表现不太好，但从长远来看，完全没问题。

So one model in one market didn't do particularly well but over the longer term it will be perfectly fine.

而另一个模型的表现却非常出色。

Whereas the other model did exceptionally well.

我说的就是这个意思。

And that's what I'm talking about.

我并没有回避回撤。

I haven't avoided the drawdown.

我也没说趋势跟踪策略失效了，以后就不做了。

I haven't said trend following doesn't work anymore and I'm not going to do that.

它迟早会奏效的，必须得奏效。

So it will always work, it has to work.

股票总得有趋势，不可能一直没趋势。

Stocks have to trend, they can't not trend.

但它们确实会经历一段时期横盘震荡。

But they can go through these periods of time where we go sideways.

所以与其回避那12%的负面预期，或者断定明年不会好，我会坚持原有策略，同时加入其他模型来分散风险。

So rather than avoid that 12% negative view or take an opinion that the next year won't be any good, I stick with it but I add other models to the mix that will help diversify.

好的，明白了。

Okay, cool.

我觉得我们可能已经稍微提过这一点了，但为了说清楚，你平时接触不少新手交易者，你觉得他们最容易在哪个环节出问题？

I think we may have already covered this a little bit, but just so we're really clear, I mean, you're in the business of dealing with quite a few novice traders, where would be one of the key areas you see them slipping up?

你有什么建议能帮他们克服这些挫折？

And what would your advice be to overcome these setbacks?

这是个很好的问题。

Yeah, it's a great question.

人们容易出错的地方其实有不少。

There's probably a few areas where people slip up on.

我想重点说两个平时很少被提到的。

Let me talk about two in particular that don't get spoken about a great deal.

首先是佣金损耗。

First of all commission drag.

我觉得这是一个非常关键的原因，导致很多人失败。

I think it's a very key reason why a lot of people fail.

很多人进入股市，即使资金充足，也会说：我以前没做过。

A lot of people come into the stock market even when they're well capitalized they come into the stock market and say, well I've never done it before.

我就拿三千或四千美元开始试试水。

I'll just start with $3,000 or $4,000 and see how I go.

但如果你每次买卖都要付给券商二十美元佣金，其实不需要太多交易，就能把你的账户资金消耗掉一大块。

Now when you're paying a broker $20 to buy and $20 to sell, it doesn't actually take a huge amount of transactions to chew up your account or a significant amount of your account.

最近有位老先生来我办公室，他是我一位朋友的父亲，他想买那种市面上吹得神乎其神的交易系统。

I had a gentleman in the office recently and he was the father of a friend of mine and he wanted to buy this whiz bang trading system that was being sold.

我告诉他，他每年得赚22%才能勉强打平。

And I showed him that he needs to make 22% per annum just to break even.

原因很简单，就是这个策略的交易频率、必须使用的券商，以及由此产生的佣金损耗，让他每年光覆盖成本就得赚22%。

And the simple reason for that was the quantity of trades that this strategy was doing, the broker that he had to use and the commission drag that the strategy created, he had to make 22 per annum just to cover those costs.

说实话，不管你的交易水平有多高，每年22%的目标都高得离谱，要是你以前从来没交易过，那简直是不可能完成的任务。

Now I don't care how good you are, 22% per annum is a big big ask and if you've never traded before it's an impossible task.

所以他不得不回去好好想想，到底是换经纪商——但他其实没得选，还是多投点资金进去，让成本占比降下来。

So he had to go away and have a good think about whether he changed broker which he really didn't have an option or he included more capital into there so that drag went down.

我觉得很多人进入这个行业时，并没意识到这些附加成本会严重侵蚀账户，让成功变得几乎不可能，从数学上讲根本做不到。

So I think a lot of people come into the business not understand that these peripheral costs can actually chew up the account significantly and make it almost impossible, mathematically impossible to be successful.

我觉得人们失败的另一个关键原因是，他们根本没搞清楚交易这条路到底意味着什么，我们之前已经提到过一些了。

I think the other core trait that people fail at is they simply don't understand what the journey entails and we've discussed this already to some degree.

交易这条路必然包含亏损的交易，必然有持续亏损的时期，甚至可能经历一整年的亏损。

Know the journey of trading does entail losing trades, it does entail periods of time of losing and it may entail having a losing year.

对普通人来说，要接受‘一整年都在做交易，结果还是亏钱’这件事，实在太难了。

It's very very difficult for the average person to accept that they can place trades for a whole year and have a losing trade or have a losing year.

除非他们真正接受这一点，否则几乎不可能在这行取得成功。

And until they accept that they're going to find it very very difficult to be successful in it.

当然，谁都想要一个每天、每周、每月、每年都能赚钱的策略，我当然也希望如此，但这种策略根本不存在。

Yeah sure, I would like a strategy that makes money every day, every week, every month, every year as anybody would, but it doesn't exist.

我是个现实的人，我明白这一点。

I'm a realist, I understand that.