008：阿南德“卢奇”·桑格维——倒卖PS3、积累数百万财富与深刻的心理学启示

所以基本上，所有的杠杆都分配给了自营公司里的那些交易员。

So so basically, all that leverage was doled out to however many traders that was that was in the prop firm.

问题是，如果一个交易员遭受了重大损失或者被套牢，就会影响到其他所有人。

The problem was that if one trader took like a bad hit or bad beat or something, it would affect everybody else.

所以首席交易员们在下跌过程中买入银行股。

So the head traders were buying banks on the way down.

你知道，他们在下跌过程中买入贝尔斯登的股票。

You know, they were buying Bear Stearns on the way down.

贝尔斯登有一天开盘价是60美元，第二天开盘价就变成了10美元。

Bear Stearns opened one day at $60, and then the next day, it opened up at $10.

这些家伙在60美元时做多，你知道吗？

These guys were long at $60, you know?

所以他们被狠狠打击了。

So they got crushed.

他们没有告诉任何人这件事，而我多年后才发现，你知道吗？

They didn't tell anybody about it, and I had to figure this out years later, you know?

他们谁都没说，然后有一天我像往常一样来上班，想着大干一场赚点大钱，结果我的交易量被砍到只能做100股。

They didn't tell anybody about it, and then all of a sudden I came in one day expecting to crank it out and make some crazy money, and I'm cut down to a 100 share lot.

懂吗？

Okay?

所以自营公司里，你的首席交易员会限制你的交易手数。

So prop firms, your head trader has you down to restrictions as far as lot sizes that you can trade.

你知道吗，当时没人管我，因为我那时候在赚钱。

You know, I was nobody gave a damn about me because I was making money at the time.

所以我想怎么交易就怎么交易。

So so I could trade whatever the hell I wanted to.

结果突然有一天我来了，只允许我交易100股。

Then all of a sudden I come in and I'm only allowed to trade a 100 shares.

最多200股。

Know, 200 shares.

那意味着我最大的盈亏可能就200美元。

That means like my max p and l could be like $200.

我当时就想，哥们，这他妈是怎么回事？

And I was like, dude, what the fuck is this?

你对我做了什么？

What did you do to me?

发生什么了？

What happened?

到底怎么了？

What's going on?

然后大家都说，你知道，首席交易员们说，不，我们不会关门。

And then everybody was like, you know, the head traders were like, no, we're not shutting down.

关门。

Shutting down.

两天后，我们来上班，门锁了，一个人都没有。

Two days later, we come into work, door's locked, and nobody's there.

门锁了，一个人都没有。

Door's locked and nobody's there.

然后，你知道，整个事情就崩了。

And then, you know, the whole thing shut down.

整个场面都崩了。

The whole parade shut down.

每个交易员都撤了，而且，你知道，那时候大多数人反正也没赚到钱，所以只有我和另一个家伙在下跌时赚得离谱，就是做空一切。

Every single trader out there filed out, and, you know, most of them weren't making money at that point anyway, So it was only me and this one other guy that were making ridiculous money on the way down, just shorting everything.

然后我就想，算了，去他的。

And then I was like, all right, screw this.

我要去做波段交易。

I'm gonna go swing trade.

我要拿我手里的钱，大概也就七万美金现金吧，再加上我爸的钱，然后我就想，好了，就这样。

I'm gonna take this money that I have, which was about I don't know, like $70 in cash maybe, and I combined it with my pops' money, and I was like, alright, that's it.

我要开始做波段交易了。

I'm gonna start swing trading.

那时候，我连期权是什么都不知道。

At that point, I didn't even know anything about options.

所以我就是买低价股，然后倒手卖掉，你懂的，买5万股、10万股，几周后翻倍卖出，赚两倍、三倍的钱。

So I was just buying low priced stocks, and flipping them, you know, buying 50,000 shares, a 100,000 shares, and flipping them a couple of weeks later for double, you know, double, triple, triple the money.

那时候做股票波段交易真是个好时机。

It was it was a great time to swing equities at that time.

那大概是2009年初。

So this was like beginning 2009.

好的。

Okay.

我相信你在接下来的两年里很快就把钱翻了好几倍吧？

And I believe you sort of compounded that pretty quickly within the next two years?

对。

Yeah.

没错，兄弟。

Yeah, man.

2009年真是难以置信。

2009 was was unbelievable.

我的意思是，那时候拉斯维加斯金沙集团股价才两美元。

I mean, was a place where I mean, Las Vegas Sands was like $2.

你知道吗？

You know?

差不多一美元。

It was like a dollar.

花旗集团跌到一美元。

Citigroup hit a buck.

你知道吗？

You know?

这些股票全都跌得一文不值。

All these names just just washed out to nothing.

所以你可以交易股票，在一天或一周内，在大盘股上翻倍。

So you could trade equities and double your money in an equity in a big large cap stock in like a day or like a week.

那真是疯狂，兄弟。

So it was nuts, man.

我会囤积五万股、十万股这些股票，然后就是收钱、收钱。

I I would rack up 50,000 shares, a 100,000 shares of these things, and just collect, collect.

我记得有一个月，你知道，我终于赚了五十万，然后，你知道，然后我开始交易期权。

I remember one month, you know, I I finally I had a $500,000 month, and then, you know, and then I started trading options.

然后我开始激进地交易期权，试图搞懂期权，这花了我一段时间。

Then I started trading options aggressively, trying to figure out options, and it took me a while.

花了我一段时间。

It took me a while.

在2009年初，我花了好大一部分时间才搞明白期权到底是什么，以及怎么用。

It took me a good portion of the beginning in 2009 to figure out what the hell an option was and how to use it.

然后到了2009年夏天，你知道，我在一些银行期权上建了很大的仓位，然后大赚了一笔，几个月内赚了好几百万。

And then finally, summer two thousand nine, I I, you know, amassed a huge position in some, bank options and crushed it, know, made a good couple million in in a in a few months.

不错。

Nice.

非常不错。

Very nice.

是的，兄弟。

Yeah, man.

对。

Yeah.

所以这些天，你可能最出名的是作为Sanghvi的首席交易员。

So these days, you're probably best known as the head trader at Sanghvi.

跟我们说说你在那边做什么吧。

So tell us a little bit about what you're doing over there.

比如，这个想法是从哪里来的，一切是怎么开始的？

Like, where did the idea come from, and how did it all get started?

对。

Yeah.

是的，兄弟。

Yeah, man.

我的意思是，所以我会说2009年之后，你知道，你处于一个高潮。

I mean, so I would say after 2009, you know, you're you're on a high.

记得吗，我当时才26岁。

Remember, like, I was only 26.

对吧？

Right?

而且我，你知道，我赚了一大笔钱，所以那时候谁的话我都听不进去。

And I I, you know, I made a boatload of money, so you couldn't tell me anything.

我的自尊心膨胀到了极点，你懂我意思吗？

My ego was like at an all time high, you know what I mean?

所以就在那个时候，我觉得我遭受了一次巨大的亏损。

So so at that point, like, I think I I took a like a big loss.

我亏了一大笔钱。

I took a big loss.

大概40万美元，那是我经历过最惨的一次亏损。你知道，我就坐在那儿，盯着电脑屏幕，看着我的盈亏表，亏了40万。

It was like $400, and this was like the worst loss that I've ever You know, and I'm just sitting there, like looking at my computer screen, I'm looking at my P and L down 400,000.

我心想，哥们，你就是地球上最大的废物。

I'm like, dude, you are the biggest piece of shit, you know, on the planet.

你现在根本就没理由还活着。

There's no reason that you should even be alive right now.

所以，你知道，我有点崩溃了，就暂时放弃了。

So, you know, I kinda just kind of just buckled and I and I just gave it up for a little bit.

我就想，你知道吗？

Was like, you know what?

我赚了不少钱。

I made a bunch of money.

就这样吧。

You know, that's it.

我爸基本上就退休了。

My I you know, my father retired basically.

他不用再工作了，就这样，兄弟。

He didn't have to work anymore and and that was it, man.

所以，兄弟，我就是拿着钱到处旅行，享受生活，然后投资了一堆烂生意，做了各种蠢决定。不用说，我看了银行账户和生活方式后，又醒悟了，心想：好吧，你打算这辈子都这么过吗？

So so dude, I just had a bunch of money and traveled and enjoyed myself and everything and I invested in all these stupid businesses and made all kinds of stupid decisions with my money and know, needless to say, I came to an epiphany again after looking at my bank account and looking at my life style and being like alright, how are you gonna do this for the rest of your life?

你需要更多的钱。

You need more money.

所以我就想，好吧，就这样了。

So then I was like alright, that's it.

我得回去工作了。

I gotta go back to work.

所以我创建了sanglucci.com，而且我一直很喜欢写作，兄弟。

So I created sanglucci.com and I always enjoyed writing dude.

我的意思是，我一直喜欢的一件事就是写作。

I mean one thing that I always enjoyed was writing.

而且我一直有这个天赋，而且我总有一种，我的风格总是幽默，总是那种讽刺的幽默。

And I always had a knack for it, and I always had a sort of, mine was always humor, it was always sarcastic humor kind of thing.

那一直是我的特色。

That was always my thing.

我会看所有的财经新闻，你记得，这大概是2011年，甚至2010年的时候。

And I would look at all the financial news, and you remember, this is this is like back in 2011, or 2010 even.

你知道，大多数人用雅虎财经，还有像MarketWise、Minionville这样的网站。

And you know, most people used Yahoo Finance, and you know, maybe MarketWise, or Minionville, or places like this.

而且你读到的很多文章，关于金融的，都写得特别糟糕。

And most of the articles that you read was it was just horrible to read anything that was going on in finance.

而且我一直觉得，市场上发布的消息和实际发生的情况之间，有很多操纵。

And then and then I I always felt there was so much manipulation from what was being put out there and what was actually happening in the markets.

所以我就想，这太荒谬了。

So I was like, alright, this is this is ridiculous.

我得在这里发表一些评论。

I gotta make some comments here.

我得用我的方式展示金融。

I gotta show finance the way that I see it.

就像我在交易圈每天看到的那样。

And the way that I see it in trading world every day.

所以我就这么做了。

So that's what I did.

我就开始写，大家还挺喜欢的。

I just started writing and people enjoyed it.

大家都很喜欢。

People enjoyed it.

不过呢，建网站、做营销这些事儿，我都是边做边学的。

And you know, but building a website and marketing and all that kind of stuff, know, I was picking that up on a fly.

我记得坐在图书馆里，就翻那些HTML和CSS的书，琢磨着怎么把网站搭起来。

I remember sitting in the library just reading like HTML books and CSS books and figuring out how to put a website together, you know.

所以sayingluxury.com最早的版本简直惨不忍睹。

So the first versions of sayingluxury.com were absolutely miserable.

现在啊，你连个烂网站都不能有。

You know, nowadays, like, you can't even have a bullshit website.

就是说，你连个破网站都不行。

Like, you can't even have a whack website.

现在你要是网站做得烂，人家点进来就直接走了。

If you have a whack website now, like, people just click right off of it, you know.

2010年、2008年的时候，你还能用博客或者那种看起来很烂的网站混过去。

2,010, 2008, you could still get away with having a blog spot, you know, of of of of a of a website or just some blogger type website that looked like shit.

人们还是会去看。

People would still go to it.

现在不行了，你不能有这样的网站。

Now, like, you can't have websites like that.

如果网站不华丽、不好用、不快，人们根本不想待在上面。

If it's not glitz and glam or it's not functional and it's not so quick, then people don't even wanna be on it.

而且如果不支持手机，没人会花时间在上面。

And if it's not mobile friendly, like nobody's nobody's even gonna spend any time on it.

所以，这就是它怎么开始的。

So anyways, that's how it started.

我就是随便开始写，积累了不少粉丝，然后意识到基本上可以像2008年做副业那样，用网站做同样的事情。

I I just started writing randomly and built a good following and then realized that I could basically, just like the side hustle that I was doing back in 2008, I could do the same thing with the website.

保持一些现金流，比如聊天室、教育之类的，同时我试着再次在市场上大赚一笔。

Keep some cash flow coming in as far as chat rooms, as far as education, as far as things like that while I try to go hit it again, you know, in the markets.

再次在市场上大赚一笔。

Hit it big again in the markets.

所以我从100美元重新开始。

So I started back with a $100.

那真的很难，兄弟。

It was really tough, man.

回归交易的第一年非常艰难。

That first year coming back trading was tough.

太难了。

It was so tough.

因为，老兄，当你离开交易一段时间再回来，你自然会期望自己像以前一样赢。

Because dude, when you take a break from trading and you come back, you already expect yourself to be winning just like you were before.

但事情并不是那样的。

And it doesn't happen like that.

你需要重新理解市场，重新理解如何操作，重新理解情绪。

Like you gotta understand the markets again, you gotta understand how to move again, you gotta understand the emotions again.

所以，要花一段时间才能重新回到状态，兄弟。

So it takes a while to get back in the game, man.

所以，基本上就是这样发生的。

So that's what that's basically how it happened.

sanglucha.com就是这样开始的。

That's how sanglucha.com started.

而且那只是我一个人。

And that was just me.

那只是我一个人，你知道吗？

That was just me, you know?

所以现在，它已经发展得更多了。

So now, it's evolved to so much more.

它已经发展得更多了。

It's evolved to so much more.

我有合作伙伴，你知道，我们之前在纽约。

I have partners, you know, we were out in New York.

我们搬到了纽约，我相信我们很快就会讲到那段故事的。

We moved out to New York and I'm sure we'll get into that story soon enough.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

好，那我们现在就深入聊聊吧。

Well, let's dive into it now, man.

因为你已经和海姆·博达克合作了。

Because I mean, you've partnered with Haim Bodak.

他基本上就是高频交易和自动化领域的权威人物。

I mean, who was pretty much like the authority figure on high frequency trading and automation.

跟我们说说这是怎么发生的吧。

So tell us about how that came about.

比如，你们在做什么？

Like, what are you guys working on?

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

所以，你知道，快进到现在。

So I mean, you know, fast forward here.

你知道，我有一个网站，做得还不错。

You know, I had a website, was doing pretty well.

你知道，我换过几个商业伙伴，因为，你知道，有商业伙伴也挺难的。

You know, I went through a couple of different business partners because, you know, having business partners is difficult too.

最后我遇到了两个家伙，是在Tim Sykes的交易大会上认识的，那大概是2011年，或者2010年底左右。

Finally linked up with these two guys that I met at a Tim Sykes trading conference, and this was like back in 2011 maybe, or maybe to end of two thousand ten or something like that.

其中有个叫Peter Zhang的。

And there was a guy named there, his name was Peter Zhang.

他之前和Bulls On Wall Street团队一起工作。

He worked with the Bulls On Wall Street crew.

然后，你知道，我们就在那儿喝清酒炸弹，各种胡闹。

And, you know, we're just taking sake bombs and and and nonsense.

我在威尼斯人酒店订了个超棒的房间，在拉斯维加斯挥霍，尽干些蠢事。

I like I have this dope room at the Venetian, you know, so I'm balling out over there in Vegas just doing dumb shit.

然后，我们坐在那儿喝清酒炸弹，彼得突然说，嘿，我们应该搞个对冲基金。

And, you know, we're we're sitting there, we're having Sake bombs, and Peter's like, yo, we should start a hedge fund.

我就说，行啊，没问题。

I'm like, yeah, alright.

随便啦，兄弟。

Whatever, buddy.

然后他把我介绍给他的朋友查理，查理和他一起住在洛杉矶，我们通了电话，这两个人真的非常聪明。

And so he linked me up with a friend of his, Charlie, who lived out in LA with him, and, you know, we got on the phone, and these two these two these two were really sharp individuals.

我就说，听着，如果你们能把这个搞起来，并且凭借我们现有的业绩记录，把它展示给足够多的人，那我们就干吧。

And I was like, listen, if you can put this together, and you can put this in front of enough people here with this track record that we have, let's do it.

管他呢。

Screw it.

我跟你一起干。

I'll do it with you.

然后他们真的做成了。

And they did it.

他们做了很多幕后工作，比如法律方面的事，把对冲基金建立起来，还有那些乱七八糟的事情。

They put in the back end work on, you know, the the the the legal work on setting up the hedge fund and all that kind of stuff.

他们展现出了很大的潜力，能为网站提供很多东西。

You know, they showed a lot of promise as far as what they could offer for the website, you know, and all that kind of stuff.

所以我们决定搬到纽约，因为在纽约设立对冲基金的限制没有波士顿或者全国其他很多城市那么多。

So so we decided to move to New York because to set up in New York, you know, there wasn't as many hedge funds sort of restrictions, you know, that you find in Boston or a lot of other cities across the nation.

所以纽约是我们最好的选择。

So New York was like the best place for us to go.

我们就想，管他呢。

So we were like, screw it.

就这样。

That's it.

我们全都收拾好行李，离开了原来的地方，在曼哈顿市中心租了个超棒的阁楼，一个月大概九千到一万美元吧。

We all packed up, left where we were, and rented out this dope loft Downtown Manhattan, which which cost like $9, $10 a month kind of thing.

我们大家就把它分摊了。

We all just split it up.

而且那真是个特别棒的地方。

And all it was a really dope place.

我们办了好多疯狂的派对。

We threw a ton of crazy parties.

这个我们待会儿再说。

We'll get into that.

然后我们就在那儿开始交易了。

And then we just started trading there.

我们就在那儿开始交易了。

We just started trading there.

我就在那儿交易。

I was just trading there.

我们开始一起运营网站，一起写文章，把纽约交易圈的新人带进那个阁楼，各种事情都做。

We started running the site together, writing articles together, bringing new people into the loft from New York, from the New York trading scene and everything.

然后哈伊姆出现了，因为我们刚读完那本《暗池》。

And then Haim came around because we had just finished reading that book Dark Pools.

我不知道你们有没有读过，有一本书叫《暗池》，作者是斯科特·帕特森，讲的是向电子市场转变的过程。

And I don't know if any of you guys have read it, but there's a book called Dark Pools by Scott Patterson, and it's all about the move and the shift towards electronic markets.

但更深层次的是，它讲述了所有这些ATS系统是如何诞生的。

But deeper, even deeper than that, it's how you know the creation of all these ATS systems came about.

你知道那些暗池、ECN，它真的展示了交易世界的幕后，那是没人谈论的。

You know all these dark pools, all these ECNs and it's just kinda it just kinda really showed the back end of the trading world which nobody ever talks about.

这些都是许多交易员，包括我自己，一直在寻找的答案。

And these were all the answers that so many traders were looking for, myself included.

书里有个家伙，大部分篇幅都在讲哈伊姆·博达克，我就觉得，这家伙太厉害了。

And there was this guy in there, about, Lion's portion of the book was about Haim Bodak, and I'm like dude this guy is awesome.

这家伙真棒，老兄。

This guy is great, man.

是查理先读的那本书，然后我们都说，咱们联系他吧。

Charlie was the one who read it and all of us were like, let's hit him up.

然后我们在推特上找到了他。

And we found him on Twitter.

彼得开始给他发邮件、打电话。

Peter started emailing him, calling him.

我们说，嘿，听着，直接来家里坐坐吧。

We said, hey, listen, just come by the house, come by the crib.

他来了之后，就一直跟我们聊个不停。

And he came by and he just talked his, talked our ears off.

后来，你知道，他当时也在寻找一些机会，而我们也想和他合作。

And eventually, you know, he was at that time where he was looking for something, and we were also looking to partner up with him as well.

所以，哥们，事情就是这样开始的。

So that's, dude, that's how it started, man.

就只是因为推特。

Just from Twitter.

就是从推特开始的，兄弟。

Just from Twitter, man.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

那太棒了，兄弟。

That's awesome, man.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，我第一次发现海姆·博达克是在那部纪录片《华尔街密码》里。

I mean, I first discovered Haim Bodak in that documentary, the Wall Street Code.

《华尔街密码》。

Wall Street Code.

对。

Yeah.

而且那其实是

And that's actually So

那是后来的事。

that came after.

你知道吗？

You know?

那是后来的事，你知道吗？

That came after, You know?

而且我们当时有，你知道吗？

And and we had you know?

而且查理有那些交易和一切，才让那件事成为可能。

And and Charlie had the deals and everything to make that to make that happen.

你知道吗？

You know?

对海姆来说，那是一部非常重要的纪录片。

For for Haim, that was a huge documentary.

那部纪录片影响很大。

Huge documentary that went down.

它确实向很多人解释了很多东西，关于市场、高频交易、它是如何运作的，还有那些欺骗性的做法等等。

Really explained a lot to to a lot of people about the markets, about high frequency trading, about how it worked, about the deceptive practices and all that kind of stuff.

所以Haim来了之后，真的彻底颠覆了我们的认知，让我们看到了市场的另一面，那是我们一直想了解和弄明白的。

Know, so Haim came in and really just blew our blew our whole world up and showed us showed us the other side of the market which we've been wanting to know about and understand for the longest time.

对。

Yeah.

那真是一部了不起的纪录片。

That's an incredible documentary.

我其实会在节目说明里放一个链接。

I'll I'll put a link to that in the show notes actually.

当然。

Definitely.

当然。

Definitely.

对。

Yeah.

其实我就是通过那部纪录片第一次听说你，还有你们在Sanghvi做的事情。

I mean, that's actually how I first sort of heard about yourself and what you guys are doing over there at Sanghvi.

对。

Yeah.

因为你在里面出现了大概五到十分钟吧。

In that documentary because you featured in it for like, I don't know, five, ten minutes at one point.

对。

Yeah.

我们确实在里面。

We're in there.

我们确实在里面。

We're in there.

我们参与了其中，你知道的。

We're in the mix, you know.

而我们就像是另一边的，你知道吧。

And we're like the other side, you know.

我们是游戏的另一边。

We're the other side of the game.

我们是游戏的那一边，知道它存在的那一边。

We're the we're the side of the game that that knows that it's there.

我们明白高频交易正在利用我们的订单流来创造机会和套利机会，哪怕只是几分钱的一小部分，我经常看到他们对我发出去的很多订单这么做。

We understand that high frequency trading is using our order flow to create opportunities and arbitrage opportunities for fractions of pennies and I see them doing it to me all the time with a lot of the orders that I send out.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以这就像我们现在终于明白了，这也是像我这样的人、其他交易者、甚至那些不一定了解市场或没有太多经验的散户投资者现在变得精明了。

So this is like us now finally understanding and this is now the sophistication of people like myself, of other traders, of even retail guys who don't necessarily know or have that much experience in the markets.

你知道，每个人都在慢慢变得更精明，因为现在获取这些信息的渠道非常多，比如暗池，还有迈克尔·刘易斯的《华尔街代码》，你知道，他刚出的那本《闪击者》书。

You know, everybody is slowly becoming more sophisticated because the access to this information is huge now with dark pools and with the Wall Street code, Michael Lewis, you know, the the The Flash Boys book that, you know, he just came out with.

所以现在这一切都在发生。

So all this is going on right now.

现在大家都了解市场的真实结构了，以前从来没人知道。

Everybody now is in tune with the actual structure of the markets, which nobody ever was.

从来没人知道。

Nobody ever was.

不过还是有很多散户完全不懂。

And still you find a lot of retail guys that are clueless completely.

但现在，大家都在变得更懂市场运作，这挺好的，我们在这里。

But now, like, everybody is getting more sophisticated in their knowledge of how the market works, is which is great that we're here.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

真是疯狂。

It's crazy stuff.

比如，那个纪录片我看了好几遍，可能还会再看几遍。

Like, I've I've watched that documentary, like, a couple times, and I'll probably watch it a few more yet.

我还是在努力理解它。

Like, I'm I'm still trying to get my head around it.

对。

Yeah.

确实。

Definitely.

真的很有意思。

It's it's really interesting.

所以，现在可能是时候稍微深入了解一下你实际的交易方法了。

So I mean now it's probably a good point to sort of zoom in a little bit on your actual approach to trading.

那么，你如何定义你在市场交易中的风格？

So how would you define your style as far as trading the markets?

就像你之前提到的，你倾向于波段交易。

Like you mentioned earlier you sort of were leaning towards swing trading.

现在还是这样吗？

Is that still the case like today?

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

不是的，兄弟。

No, man.

但话说回来，我还是总想回到那种状态。

And and but but again, like I always try to go back there.

我一直想回到那种状态。

I'm always trying to get back there.

交易这事儿挺奇怪的。

And it's weird in trading.

你会经历不同的进化阶段，无论是自身能力还是心态。

Like you go through these different evolutionary patterns within yourself, within your abilities, within your mindset.

交易和你的生活方式紧密相连。

Just trading is a very it's it's very connected towards your lifestyle as well.

你知道，那时候你的生活方式是什么样的。

You know, how you're living at that current time.

比如我在纽约的时候，整个人都充满了自负，兄弟。

Like me out in New York was pumped up with ego, man.

充满了自负。

Pumped up with ego.

你知道，我们有个超大的阁楼。

You know, we had this giant loft.

所有人都来找我们获取信息。

Everybody was coming to us for information.

所有人都在推特上找我们。

Everybody was coming to us on Twitter.

所有人都来找我们，就为了成为这场运动的一部分。

Everybody was coming to us just to be a part of the movement.

你知道，所以我纯粹是被自负驱使着。

You know, so I was driven purely on ego.

哥们，我每天晚上都出去，凌晨四点半、五点才回家，然后睡两个小时就起来交易，你懂我意思吗？

Dude, I was going out every single night, coming home at like 04:30, 05:00 in the morning and waking up two fucking hours later to trade, you know what I mean?

而且我一点都不觉得累。

And it didn't faze me.

真的不觉得累。

It didn't faze me.

完全没影响。

It didn't faze me at all.

那时候就觉得这是理所当然的。

It was just what you did.

所以那就是我在纽约的生活。

So that was me in New York City.

至于我的交易，事情是这样的，2010年的时候，周度期权出来了。

As far as me trading, what happened was in 2010, they came up with weekly options.

这对我来说改变了很多，尤其是对股票价格走势的影响。

And this really changed a lot for me especially and for price movements on actual equities.

这为更多的操纵打开了大门，尤其是在期权上的情绪和认知操纵，比如在哪里买、在哪里卖。

It opened the door for a lot more manipulation as far as sentiment and perception manipulation on options, where to buy it, where to sell it.

你知道，所以每周期权一出来，就有很多我没见过的把戏在玩。

You know, so there was a lot of games that were being played that I wasn't used to as soon as the weekly options came out.

然后他们提供了这种在极短时间内赚大钱的诱惑。

And then they provided this sort of lure of crazy money within very short timeframes.

所以我回去做日内交易了，不用说，这不算是最好的决定，因为做波段交易时，我只盯着一两只或三只股票，坐在那里等大行情，可能等几个月，两个月、三个月，随便。

So I went back to day trading and Needless to say, wouldn't say it was the best decision here because swing trading and when I'm looking at just one or two or three names and I'm sitting there just waiting for that big picture move to happen, It might be a couple of months, it might be two months, three months, whatever.

你知道，那才是我状态最好的时候，我觉得。

You know, that's when I'm at my best, I would say.

但就交易和我的风格而言，一切都看盘口。

But as far as trading and my style, it's all tape.

一切都看盘口。

Everything is tape.

跟图表没关系，跟基本面也没关系，你知道，跟价格水平什么的有点关系，很多人想买或卖某只股票，但一切都取决于盘口。

It has nothing to do with charts, it has nothing to do with fundamentals, you know, has a little bit to do with price levels and things like that, where a lot of people are trying to buy a stock or sell a stock or whatever, but everything is about the tape.

我说的盘口，是指目前这只股票里买卖双方的互动情况，以及这种互动能持续多久。

And what I mean with the tape is, what are, what is the interaction between the buyers and sellers currently within this stock, and then how long can it last.

比如说，如果我看到某只股票有很多买盘，我就要评估需求有多大，以及这种需求能持续多久。

So for example like if I see a lot of buying taking place on a particular name, it's assessing how much demand there is, and how long that's gonna last.

然后还要结合市场的情况，经济形势，全球经济，所有这些乱七八糟的东西。

And then also combining it with what's going on in the market, what's going on as far as the economy, global economy, you know, all that kind of nonsense.

把这些综合起来，给自己一个大概的时间框架，决定持有多久。

You combine that all together to give yourself sort of a time frame on how long you wanna hold something.

所以对我来说，一切都是买卖双方。

So everything is to me is buyers and sellers.

对我来说就是简单的供需关系。

It's all simple supply and demand for me.

我不用那些花哨的东西，不用移动平均线，不用技术指标，那些乱七八糟的都不用，因为现在，就像我之前说的，掌控这个市场的玩家们，也就是做市商、聪明钱、对冲基金，这些真正操纵市场的人，他们的水平已经很高了。

I don't use anything snazzy, no moving averages, no technical indicators, none of that mumbo jumbo because now, like I said before, the sophistication of the players that own this market, meaning the market makers, smart money hedge funds, all these guys that literally run the markets.

这些人用的都是散户喜欢用的那些东西，比如蜡烛图、技术指标之类的。

These guys are using all those things that the retail mindset goes to trade, you know, like candlesticks, technical indicators, all that kind of stuff.

所以他们现在用那些东西来对付你。

So so they use all that stuff against you now.

他们就是这么精明，你知道吗？

They're that sophisticated, You know?

他们就是这么精明。

They are that sophisticated.

他们的程序就是这么精明。

Their programs are that sophisticated.

就是为了彻底碾压那些不懂行的散户。

You know, to literally crush the retail investor who doesn't know what he's doing.

明白吗？

Know?

所以现在玩的就是这个游戏。

So that's the game that's being played now.

所以这就是为什么我总是回归本质。

So that's why I always come back to what's true.

而真实的就是价格、盘口、买卖报价。

And what's true is price, is tape, is bid and ask.

就这些。

That's it.

那你提到的那些指标和其他不同的东西，是你以前用过的，现在你只是把它缩减到只看盘口了吗？

So are those sort of indicators and those sort of other different, you know, things you mentioned there, are they things you previously used to use and now you've just sort of cut it right down to the tape?

说实话，说实话，我其实从来没用过它们。

You Is that what you know, to be honest to be honest, I never I never actually used them.

你知道吗？

You know?

但我确实看过很多图表之类的，但我从没用过它们。

But I I did I did look at a lot of charts and things like that, but I never actually used them.

我一直反对它们。

I I was always against them.

我从来无法理解那种从众心理。

I I never could understand like the crowd mentality.

你知道吗？

Know?

对我来说，那总是跟风心理。

It was always to me the herd mentality.

但曾经有一段时间，它确实有效。

And but there was a great period in time where it worked.

确实有效。

It worked.

你知道吗？

You know?

在八十年代和九十年代，技术分析是有效的。

Back in the eighties and back in the nineties, technical analysis worked.

那些东西是有效的。

That stuff worked.

你知道吗？

You know?

因为大家都跟着它走，而且当时操纵市场的情况没那么多。

Because everybody was behind it and there wasn't that much manipulation.

那时候游戏里没那么多电脑和算法。

There wasn't that many computers, you know, algorithms in the game at that time.

现在，你交易的时候，大部分时间是在跟电脑交易。

Now, most of the time that you're trading, you're trading with a computer.

你知道吗？

You know?

你不是在跟别的人交易。

You're not trading somebody else.

你是在跟电脑交易，不管是电脑化的做市系统，还是聪明的对冲基金，或者其他什么，你就是在跟这些交易。

You're trading with a computer, whether it's a computerized market making system, you know, a smart money hedge fund or whoever it is, you know, that's who you're trading against.

你不是在跟某个该死的人交易，你知道吗。

You're not trading against some other freaking human, you know.

你是在跟一个复杂的系统交易。

You're trading against a sophisticated system.

它是在接你的对手盘。

It's taking the other side of your trade.

你得想想这一点。

And you gotta think about that.

所以2007年，NMS条例出台，整个市场结构彻底改变，电脑就接管了一切。

So 2007, that's when regulation NMS came in, and the whole structure of the markets changed completely, and that's when the computers took over.

就像一夜之间，兄弟。

It it was like overnight, man.

电脑接管了，你在行情里都能看出来，兄弟。

The computers took over, and you could see it in the tape, man.

一切都变了。

Everything changed.

对。

Yeah.

那真是太疯狂了。

That's that's that's nuts.

那么，你实际上从盘口获取哪些信息，这些信息又如何影响你决定是否下单交易呢？

So, I mean, what's the sort of info that you're actually pulling from the from the tape that's actually influencing your decision on to place a trade?

对。

Yeah.

这个问题有点难回答。

This one's a tough one.

这需要你亲眼去看。

This one's the it's something that you have to see.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

你得看别人怎么操作。

You have to see it being done.

这就像看盘口一样。

It's it's like that same thing, you know, with with tape.

大家都说看盘口是一门失传的科学或艺术，因为关于它的信息太少了。

Everybody says tape is like a lost science or a lost art simply because like there's no information about it.

市面上真的没有书可以让你坐下来好好读一读关于盘口的东西。

There's no there's no books out there that you can really sit there and read about the tape.

这更像是一种实战经验。

It's more of a field thing.

更重要的是理解买方和卖方，以及他们之间如何互动。

It's more about understanding buyers and sellers, how they interact with one another.

当有一个大玩家在吸筹，比如说，买入大宗股票，或者一百万股，或者两百万股，他们会留下足迹。

And when you have a large player that is accumulating, let's say, blocks of shares or a million shares or 2,000,000 shares, they have footprints.

你知道，他们会留下足迹。

You know, they have footprints.

他们买入这些股票的方式很独特。

They have a distinct way that they're going about buying those shares.

你明白吗？

You know?

这就是我在观察的东西。

And that's kinda what I'm watching for.

我在观察那些大玩家建仓，然后最后他们放手了，这时候你就会看到股票要么一飞冲天，要么跌入谷底，你懂的。

I'm watching for the bigger players building into a position, and then finally, they went ahead, they let it go, and that's when you see stock either going to the moon or going down to the depths, you know.

这就是那些大的突破和大的崩溃可能发生的地方，短时间内可能出现非常剧烈的价格波动。

It's where these big, big breakouts and big breakdowns can happen where really sharp price movements can happen within a short period of time.

我找的就是那些机器人。

I'm looking for those bots.

这就是我在找的。

That's what I'm looking for.

你明白吗？

You know?

我在评估买卖双方，再说一次，谁参与其中？

And I'm trying to assess buyers and sellers, and again, who's involved?

谁在操纵那个盘面？

Who's manipulating that tape?

然后试图弄清楚，好吧，谁在背后？

And trying to figure out, okay, who's behind it?

他们为什么这么做？

Why are they behind it?

他们想干什么？

And what are they doing?

基本上就是这样。

That's basically it.

好的。

Okay.

不错。

Cool.

那么，像新闻发布和传闻这类东西，对你的交易有什么影响吗？

So what sort of influence does things like news releases and rumors have on your trading, if any?

还是说你只是专注于看盘？

Or do you just sort of stay focused on reading the tape?

比如，这些都已经反映在盘面上了。

Like, it's all factored into the tape already.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

现在有点不一样了。

It's a little different now.

比如十年前，你可以根据新闻发布来交易。

Like before ten years ago, like you could trade a news release.

你知道吗？

Know?

真的可以。

You you really could.

那时候你有足够的时间去操作。

There was enough time for you to be able to do it.

现在，只要有新闻发布，新闻算法会立刻捕捉到，并在几分之一秒内推动行情变动，所以任何时候你想参与进去，你都是最后一个到场的。

Now, anytime there's a news release, like the news algorithms pick it up so quickly and make these moves happen within fractions of a second, that anytime you try to get involved in this, you're the last one to the party.

你是最后一个到场的，根本赚不到钱。

You're the last one to the party and there's no way you're making any money here.

所以我总是在新闻发布之后交易。

So I always trade after the news release.

我总是在新闻发布之后交易。

I'll always trade after the news release.

我绝不会试图去预测新闻发布会不会对我有利，因为你永远不知道它会怎么影响市场。

I I will never try to anticipate a a, you know, some kind of a news release being in my favor or whatever, because you never know how it's going to affect the markets.

你知道，你可以看看一个简单的财报电话会议。

You know, you could you could look at a simple earnings call.

你可以看看大多数已经发布的财报电话会议。

You know, you could take out most earnings calls that that, you know, that came out.

比如，美国铝业今年拉开了财报季的序幕。

Like, you you take Alcoa, which kicked off earnings season this year.

它的财报是正面的，很漂亮，但股价却暴跌了。

You know, it was positive earnings, great earnings, and the stock absolutely tanked.

它开盘时稍微高了一点，但接下来两天跌了两个点，只是因为市场当时的位置。

It opened up, you know, a little bit higher and then tanked two points over the next two days just because of the timing of where the market was.

所以很多时候，新闻发布之类的事情并不重要。

So oftentimes, news releases and things like that, they don't matter.

它们不重要。

They don't matter.

它们更多是用来操纵人们相信某个方向的地方。

They're used more as a place to manipulate people into believing a certain direction, you know.

所以我会在了解他们对那个特定新闻发布做了什么之后，再交易。

So I'll trade that after, once I understand what they're doing with that particular news release.

所以我会尽量避开它，然后等它发布后再交易。

You know, so I'll I'll try to stay away from it and trade after.

对。

Yeah.

你得小心你听信的东西。

You gotta be gotta be careful what you listen to.

所以通过观察盘口，你基本上能尽可能接近当前的价格走势。

So by following the tape, you're pretty much getting as close as you possibly can to the current price action.

那是最接近的。

That is the closest.

那是最接近的。

That is the closest.

那是你能达到的最接近的程度。

That's the closest that you can get.

这就是为什么我总是回到它。

And that's why I always come back to it.

我的意思是，人们都在用其他那些指标。

I mean, people are using all these other indicators.

这些指标是滞后指标，天知道滞后多久。

These things are lagging indicators by God knows how long.

你理解了盘口，理解了买卖双方，那时你才从根本层面理解市场如何运作。

You understand the tape and you understand buyers and sellers, that's when you understand how the market works from a fundamental level.

买卖双方为了成交订单，尤其是大量订单，必须如何互动，你知道的。

How buyers and sellers have to interact with another, with with each other to get an order filled, you know, and and to get a significant amount of orders filled.

你知道，他们必须采取某些行动。

You know, they have to do they have their certain actions that need to be taken.

当你看到这种情况发生时，你就真正与市场同步了。

And when you can see that happen, that's when you're really in tune with the markets.

你不是在看图表上某个好看的图形，然后说，好吧，接下来会这样走。

You're not looking at some nice looking picture here on a chart formation and saying, okay, this is what's gonna happen.

要知道，那些都是胡说八道。

Know, that stuff is nonsense.

真正的信息在于解读，能够读懂买卖双方。

The real information is in reading, being able to read the buyers and sellers.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Cool.

那么确认一下，盘口和二级报价是一回事吗？

So just to be clear, the tape is the same as level two?

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yes.

盘口就是二级报价加上成交记录。

So tape is level two and time and sales.

二级报价就是买价和卖价，成交记录就是实际发生的交易和订单。

So level two being your bid and and ask and time and sales being your transactions the actual transactions and orders that take place.

盘口也可以指期权。

Tape can also refer to options as well.

所以经常你会看到期权市场有大买家和大卖家，他们的行动也会推动市场。

So oftentimes you'll see action in the options big buyers and sellers of the options that end up moving the markets too.

反过来也一样。

Vice versa.

所以，行情记录也包括所有这些价格变动。

So tape includes all of that price action as well.

好的。

Okay.

太棒了。

Awesome.

那么，当你真正进入一笔交易后，你是怎么确定你的出场点或者风险的呢？如果事情变糟了，另一方面，你又怎么决定在哪里止盈？

So once you're actually into a trade, I mean how you determine your sort of your exit point slash risk And if things go sour, and I mean, on the other hand, how are you deciding where you take profits?

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

这总是个难题。

This is this is always the tough one.

而且我擅长的事情之一就是入场。

And and one of the things that I'm great at is my entries.

我不太擅长的事情之一就是出场。

One of the things that I'm subpar at is my exits.

你想知道为什么吗？

You wanna know why?

因为出场往往有点情绪化。

Because exits often get a little emotional.

对吧？

Right?

因为假设我在一笔交易中赚了100美元之类的。

Because let's say I'm up in a trade, up a $100 or something like that.

我看着我的盈亏，赚了10万，我对自己说，也许我还能再赚1万。

I'm looking at my p and l up a 100,000, and I'm saying to myself, maybe I can scratch another 10,000.

也许我还能再赚2万。

Maybe I can scratch another 20,000.

也许我还能再赚五万。

Maybe I can scratch another 50,000.

然后你的脑子突然就卡住了，一心只想着赚到十五万。

And your mind all of a sudden gets glued or fixated on making the 150,000.

你知道，就盯着你的盈亏表看，想着十五万。

You know, on looking at your p and l at a 150,000.

而与此同时，你看着盘面，它告诉你赶紧撤，但你却什么都没做，因为你还是死盯着你的盈亏表，非要它变成那个样子。

And all the while, you're looking at your tape and it's telling you to get the hell out and you're not doing anything because you're still fixated on your p and l being a certain way.

你知道，所以当情绪掺和进来，或者你给交易加了自己的剧本，但你不能那样，退出就很容易搞砸。

You know, so exits can really get botched when emotions come into the picture, or you add your own soundtrack to the trade, which you can't.

因为交易才不在乎你怎么想。

Because the trade doesn't give a shit about what you think.

交易才不管你打算从中赚多少钱呢。

The trade doesn't give a damn about, you know, how much money you wanna make out of it.

交易就是交易。

The trade is just the trade.

所以，关于退出，我状态最好的时候是慢慢地在强势中减仓。

So exits, I'm at my best when I'm slowly slowly limiting out into strength.

然后等到行情到顶的时候，我基本上已经完全退出期权了。

And then by the time it's the top of the move, I'm pretty much out of the option completely.

如果我等到最后一刻才卖期权，那坏事就来了。

If I wait until that last moment to sell my options, that's when the bad things happen.

因为如果你等到最后一刻，你就会盯着那个盈亏数字不放，希望它保持不变。

Because if you wait until the last moment, you're fixated on that P and L staying the same.

但那个数字根本不可能保持不变。

There's no way it's gonna stay that same.

而且如果你等到最后一刻，你想卖的那个期权价格，你根本不可能用你手里的全部仓位卖到那个价。

And if you wait until the last moment, whatever price on your option that you're trying to get, you're not gonna be able to get that with the full size that you have.

我从来都做不到。

I never do.

你知道，当其他所有人也在夺路而逃的时候，那个价格很快就消失了。

You know, and that price disappears real quickly when everybody else is running for the exit too.

所以他们会疯狂压低期权的价格，让你看到不想看到的盈亏。

So they'll push the price of that option down like crazy, and have you looking at a p and l that you didn't wanna look at.

你懂吧？

You know?

所以最好的做法就是趁强势的时候卖出。

So the way that you have to do it best is is to sell out into the strength.

你懂吧？

You know?

所以如果你是做空，或者站在空头这边，就在行情对你有利的时候慢慢卖出期权。

So whether if you're short, if you're on the short side, slowly sell your options as it's working in your favor.

这样等到股价最终跌到低点或者涨到高点，不管是什么，你已经大部分仓位都出来了。

So that by the time, you know, the the stock has moved to, you know, it's it's final low or higher, whatever it is, you know, you're out of most of your position.

这很难做到。

This is a difficult thing to do.

因为再说一次，情绪一直伴随着整个过程。

Because again, emotions are there the whole way.

你怎么知道它不会继续涨呢？

How do you not know it's gonna keep going?

你怎么知道它不会回调呢？

How do you not know that you know, the thing's gonna pull back?

你明白吗？

You know?

所以有很多不同的因素你需要考虑，并且要灵活应对，但大多数人做不到这一点。

So there's so many different things that you have to be account for and be dynamic and act dynamically as a result which most people again they can't do.

对，你说得完全对，说得有道理。

Yeah man exactly valid points valid points.

那么，具备有效解读盘面的能力，是不是就是你说的在市场中占据优势的关键？

So having the skill set of being able to effectively read the tape is that what you would say gives you an edge in the market?

是的，绝对是这样。

Yeah, absolutely.

对。

Yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

百分之百。

100%.

百分之百。

100%.

这就是我的优势。

That is my edge.

而且，兄弟，你这么说真有意思。

And dude, it's funny that you say that.

就是美国股市已经非常成熟了。

Is that US equity markets are so mature.

它们成熟到，如果说有人声称自己有优势，很可能他们只是在一两个月内赚了点钱，然后就没有了。

They're so mature in the sense that there's no anybody who says I have an edge, chances are they they you know, they might have an edge for a couple of months where they're making some money, and and that's it.

市场上已经没有真正的套利或优势了，除非你从计算机的角度来看。

There's no real arbitrage or that edge left in the markets unless you're looking at it from the computer perspective.

所以如果你只是个普通人，是个散户，在这样成熟的市场里，已经没有真正的优势了。

So if you're just a regular human, you're a retail guy, there's no true edge left in a mature market like this.

但在计算机这边还有，因为计算机再次强调，它们不会被情绪左右。

There is on the computer side Because the computers again, they're not swayed by the emotions.

它们可以挑选某种特定类型的情况，考虑到所有这些其他条件，并确保它们只做那件事。

They can pick a certain type of, you know, type of situation, account for all these other conditions, and make sure that they're only doing that.

确保它们只做那件事。

Make sure that they're only doing that.

而散户，我们会被情绪左右，这可能会让你可能拥有的任何优势变得可见。

Whereas retail guys, we are swayed by our emotions which make whatever edge that you might have discernible.

知道吗？

Know?

这可能会让那个优势完全消失。

It it might make that edge completely disappear.

而盘口阅读者，我觉得仍然拥有那个优势。

Whereas the tape reader, I feel like still has that edge.

那些散户，如果还懂得看盘口，他们依然有优势，因为光靠看盘口就能知道钱会流向哪里，怎么去赚到它。

The retail guy who is still who understands how to read the tape, he still has that edge because he can still find where that money is going to be and how to get it just simply by reading tape.

所以我觉得，对于纯手工交易的散户来说，真正的优势在这个市场里还是存在的。

You know, so I I still think, you know, that's where the true edge, as far as just a human manual trader is, you know, still left in this market.

其他所有东西都已经被考虑进去了。

Everything else is accounted for.

所有你能想到的策略，不管是期权、股票还是什么乱七八糟的，都已经被研究透了，有记录，有人把它程序化了，任何优势都已经被拿走、被占用了。

Everything, every other strategy you can possibly think of, whether it's options, equities, or whatever the hell it is, that shit is accounted for, it's documented, somebody has computerized that strategy, any edge whatsoever has been taken and it's spoken for.

好的。

Okay.

不错。

Cool.

那我们就回到你的交易本身，具体聊聊。

So just sort of going back to your trading more specifically.

你基本上是每天都在交易，日复一日地做。

So you're trading pretty much every day sort of day in day out.

有没有那么些天，你觉得就不该进场，因为没什么真正对得上或者看起来像好机会的？

Are there ever days when you feel like you should not be in the markets because nothing's really lining up or looking like a good opportunity?

比如说，你是怎么避免强行交易的？

Like how do you avoid forcing trades?

对。

Right.

这种情况隔三差五就会发生。

Every other day this happens.

而且再说，这就是人性的一面。

And then again, this is the human aspect.

这就是交易中的人性弱点，你知道吧。

This is the human failure when it comes to trading, you know.

当你心里清楚，嘿，听着，这里没什么机会。

When you know in your head like, hey, listen, there's no opportunity here.

没什么可做的。

There's nothing for me to do.