011：扎克·赫维茨——利用VWAP洞察大型交易者如何与市场互动，以及如何利用交易技术

这就是我为了在其他项目上取得进展真正需要做的事情。

This is what I really must do to get ahead on the other projects.

我得先把那些小事处理掉。

I gotta get the small things off my plate.

我得专注于细节。

I gotta work on the details.

而有些日子，你得对自己说，我要去公园坐坐，看看天空，想想我希望这个事业变成什么样。

Versus other days where you have to say, I'm gonna go sit in a park and stare at the sky and dream about what, you know, I want this business to be for me.

我再说一遍，这些都是我编的。

I'm, again, making this up.

但也许你是个画家，或者你是个皮划艇爱好者，或者不管你是谁。

But maybe you're a painter or maybe you're a kayaker or whatever you may be.

你知道，做一些能让你进入那种梦想家状态的事情。

You know, do something that for you allows you to kind of dive into that dreamer mentality.

我觉得我们作为交易员很少有机会这样做，而且这是有原因的。

I think we as traders don't get to do that very often and for good reason.

我是说，大家都明白，比如用7000美元的账户在家工作就能赚到一百万美元，或者类似的梦想。

I mean, all definitely see that, you know, make a million dollars with just a $7,000 account working from home for good or, you know, something.

我们都可以做这样的梦，但我说的是那种能变成现实的梦想，而不是像之前谈话中提到的那些交易工具，它们设计出来是为了让我们感觉更好，而不是真的能让我们交易得更好。

We all can dream of that, but I'm talking about what is a dream that we can make tangible instead of a dream that kind of like those trading tools from earlier in the conversation, they were designed to make us feel better than they ever could actually make us trade.

我觉得一旦我醒悟过来，或者说觉醒，我觉得这个词更准确，那也是一个顿悟的时刻，就是我们所学的每一样东西，教给我们都是有原因的，而这个原因和我们以为的不一样。

I think once I awoke, you know, to or awakened, I think is the right word, that, that that was kind of the epiphany too that everything we were taught was taught to us for a reason that is separate from the reason we think.

我们会有那种安慰剂效应，觉得，嘿。

And we're gonna get that placebo effect of, hey.

我装备齐全，可以应对这些现代的、快速变化的市场。

I'm well equipped to go handle these modern, you know, fast moving markets.

我有我的技术工具，我的RSI，我的移动平均线。

I've got my technical tools, my RSI, my moving average.

我并不是特别针对这些工具说坏话。

And not to speak pejoratively about those in particular.

我只是想说，你在任何学科里最先学到的东西，可能并不是这个学科里最好的东西。

I just mean the first things you learn in any subject probably aren't the best things to learn in that subject.

你懂我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

我在想潜水或者跳伞。

I'm thinking of scuba diving or skydiving.

任何其他爱好或活动，可能也是一样的。

Any any other hobby or or activity, it's probably the same thing.

你知道，你刚开始学的时候，别人教你一些东西，因为你是新手，而大多数交易者都不想觉得自己在任何方面是新手。

You know, you are taught something early on because you are a beginner, and most traders don't want to feel that they are beginners in anything.

我经常开玩笑说，如果你问一百个交易者，你在交易者中处于什么水平？

I always joke that if you ask a 100 traders, you know, where are you on the spectrum of traders?

我觉得其中九十九个都会发誓他们比那个没说话的人强，但那个不说话的人会说，我不知道自己处于什么水平。

I feel like 99 of them would swear they're better than that one other guy who didn't pipe up and say anything, but that one guy who doesn't says, I don't know where I am.

我可能就在中间某个位置。

I'm probably in the middle somewhere.

我不知道。

I don't know.

他可能是最好的交易员，因为他已经变得谦逊了，你知道，他意识到自己只是市场中的一个人。

He's probably the best trader because he's he's become humbled, you know, by the awareness of I'm just a person in the markets.

我不是什么大人物。

I'm not the man.

我不是超人。

I'm not superman.

从我上周关于古驰的帖子来看，你知道，我们不是市场里的查克·诺里斯，到处耀武扬威、大杀四方。

From my post on Gucci the other week, you know, we're not Chuck Norris of the markets kicking ass and taking names.

我觉得这是一种过时的看待市场的方式。

I think it's it's an outdated way of looking at the markets in my mind.

我真的是这么想的。

I I mean, I really think about it that way.

那是八九十年代，甚至可能是两千年代初的黄金时代，那时候人们想的是：午饭前赚个一千块，下午再赚个两三千，谁在乎呢？

It's the eighties and nineties and maybe even early two thousands kind of heyday of, I'm gonna make a grand before lunch and then maybe 2 or 3 after, and who cares?

吸点可卡因，周末飞西班牙，随便怎样都行。

Do some cocaine, fly to Spain for the weekend, whatever.

这已经不是这个行业的样子了。

That's just not the business anymore.

我是说，听着，也许金融危机把那些都冲走了。

I mean, listen, maybe the the financial crisis flushed that all out.

也许我进入这个行业晚了几年，但你知道，我想说的是，当你告诉一个非交易者你是日内交易者时，他们脑海中浮现的就是那种形象。

Maybe I came into the business a couple years too late, but, you know, I'm kinda getting at that's still the that when you tell a non trader that you're a day trader, that's I think what they picture.

而且我觉得他们没有意识到，这其实是每天二十个小时安静而孤独的奋斗。

And I don't think they realize that it's twenty hours a day of quiet, lonely struggle.

你懂我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

这就是我一开始会告诉别人的交易的样子，而且这很难。

That's what I would tell people trading is at first, and it's hard.

还有一件事，Aaron，我们昨晚聊到的，如果我在这里跳来跳去，我很抱歉，但就是那种有毒的自我对话，那些在黑暗时刻我们对自己说的糟糕话。

Another thing Aaron, you and I were talking about last night, and I'm sorry if I'm jumping around a lot here, but the kind of poisonous self talk, the terrible shit we say to ourselves in those dark moments.

我总是觉得，比如，上午十一点半的时候。

I always think it's like, you know, 11:30AM.

早盘刚结束。

The morning session's just ending.

你搞砸了。

You've screwed up.

你亏了两百美元。

You're down $200.

你根本不知道自己在干什么。

You don't know what you're doing here.

你觉得自己对市场没什么把握。

You don't feel like you have a good read on the markets.

你以为会涨，结果跌了。

You thought it was going up, then it went down.

你以为会跌，结果横盘了。

You thought it was going down, then it went sideways.

你以为会横盘，结果市场直接收盘了。

You thought it was going sideways, then the market's just closed.

你知道，你对市场完全没有准确的判断，然后你对自己说，当然，我把这事搞砸了。

You know, you have no good read on the markets, and you say to yourself, of course, I screwed this up.

这就是我的常态。

This is just what I do.

看看我以前搞砸的其他事情。

Look at how I've screwed other things up.

我没能进校队足球，还做了这做了那的。

I didn't make it to, you know, varsity soccer, and I did blah blah blah.

然后你就开始把所有事情都混在一起，错误地把它们关联起来。

And you're just like, you start compounding and commingling and falsely correlating all sorts of things.

我的意思是，你会因为友谊问题、感情问题、健康问题而责怪自己。

I mean, you will blame yourself for friendship issues, relationship issues, health issues.

天哪。

Oh, man.

而这仅仅是因为我们在一个，姑且称之为，非理性或者有点不太——我不想说不理性，因为那意味着完全是胡说八道，但就是不太符合我们能赋予它的那种理性。

And it's only because we're struggling in a, let's call it, nonrational or kind of un I don't wanna say irrational because that implies that it's total nonsense, but just not quite the rationality we can ascribe to it.

我想说的是，我们很难给这个环境找到合理的解释。

We're having a hard time putting some logic to this environment is what I'm trying to say.

当我们遇到困难时，你知道，我们会尽量把能关联的东西都联系起来，好让自己理解。

And when we do struggle, you know, our we try and correlate whatever we can to make sense of it.

而且当没有其他原因时，我们可以怪做市商。

And when no one else, you know, there we can blame the market makers.

我们可以怪其他参与者。

We can blame the other participants.

我们可以怪新闻。

We can blame the news.

我们还可以怪伯南克。

We can We miss blaming Bernanke.

那很容易，因为他太招人恨了。

That was easy because he was so easily hated.

你懂我的意思吧？

You know what I mean?

我们只是把责任推到自己身上。

We we just push push the blame off on ourselves.

我觉得这是最简单的办法。

I think that's the easiest approach.

而且这不公平，显然也对我们交易有影响。

And it's unfair, and it obviously has, you know, trading impact on us.

但作为交易员，你既是自己的老板，又是自己的员工，还是清洁工。

But when you're you're a trader, you are your own boss, you are your own employee, and you're you're the you're the janitor.

对吧？

Right?

整个操作里你什么都得管。

You're everything about that operation.

所以你会是那个急得直跳脚、大喊你怎么可能不设止损的人。

And so you're gonna be the guy frothing at the mouth, screaming, how could you possibly not put a stop in?

同时你也会是那个吓得缩成一团、担心因为没设止损而被炒鱿鱼的人。

And you'll also be the guy cowering in fear, worried you're gonna get fired because you didn't put a stop in.

同时经历这两种情绪，我觉得真的会让很多人感到困惑。

And experiencing both of those emotions simultaneously, I think really confuses a lot of people.

然后这就回到了戏剧性信号的问题上，当我意识到，你知道，有些时候我能看出自己很荒唐。

And then that comes back to where the signaling, from from drama comes in, where once I realize, you know, there are certain times when I can tell I'm being ridiculous.

学会识别这一点，并告诉自己，嘿，兄弟，你并没有因为是个糟糕的交易员而和女朋友分手。

And learning to identify that and tell myself, hey, man, you know, you you didn't break up with your girlfriend because you're a bad trader.

你分手是因为那段关系本身就不合适。

You broke up there because it wasn't a good relationship.

把这两件事分开，虽然看起来可能很荒谬，对吧，爱情和市场有什么关系？

Separating those two things, while it may seem ridiculous, right, what what does love have to do with the markets?

它们的共同点是，你知道，在这两件事里，你都是关键人物，对吧？

Their common point is that, you know, you're where the rubber meets the road in both of those, right?

你是它们之间的共同点，你的大脑会把任何能关联的东西联系起来，即使这不公平，即使这很粗鲁、很糟糕。

You're the kind of common point between them and your brain will correlate whatever it can, even when it's not fair and even when it's rude and awful.

你知道，我们是我们自己最大的敌人。

You know, we are we are our own worst enemies.

我觉得每个交易员肯定都经历过这种情况，就是可能生活中被其他事情分心，比如在另一个领域。

And I think every trader has certainly experienced that where they've, you know, maybe being distracted in life on, you know, another farm.

也许就是他们现在的日常工作。

Maybe it's their current day job.

我知道很多兼职做交易的人都有这种经历。

I know a lot of traders who are part time traders who experience this.

他们会说，我要是得全职工作，每周四十个小时，那怎么学做交易呢？

Say, you know, how can I learn how to be a trader if I have to devote full time, you know, forty hours a week to my profession?

我就说，那你得自己问问自己。

And I say, well, I think that you have to ask yourself that.

就是说，这件事值不值得你花时间去投入？

I mean, is this something that you can afford to give up the time for?

他们只是希望时间久了，自然而然就学会了。

They just hope that it will kind of osmose into them over the years.

我想说对大多数人来说确实会这样，但也会有一个无声的挣扎，就是到底学这个是为了什么。

And I'd say that it will for most people, but e, there's there's gonna be that also silent struggle of what am I even learning this for?

你明白吗？

You know?

而且大多数人，回到信任过程这个话题，大多数人都没有一个清晰的例子来说明信任过程会给他们带来什么好处。

And most people, kind of going back to trusting the process, most people don't have a clear example of where trusting the process would benefit them.

那为什么有人要相信这种信念或心态呢？

So why should anyone buy into this belief or mentality?

我想说的是，我不怪很多交易者感到幻灭，这不是他们的错。

I don't blame the disillusionment of many traders on them is what I'm trying to say.

你有没有看过一只股票暴涨，然后想，如果我有真金白银，我肯定能抓住这个机会？

Ever watch a stock rip and think, I could have nailed that if I had real capital?

事实是，很多有能力的交易者永远无法发挥出自己的潜力，不是因为缺乏技巧，而是因为缺乏资金规模。

The truth is many capable traders never reach their potential, not due to lack of skill, but lack of scale.

Trade the Pool 就是为了解决这个问题而成立的。

Trade the Pool was built to solve exactly that.

这是一家为认真的人设计的公司，让他们能够进入美国股票市场，获得高达20万美元的购买力，而无需投入自己的资金。

A firm designed for serious individuals who want access to The US equity markets with meaningful buying power up to $200,000 without committing their own capital.

几乎所有的股票和ETF都能交易。

Get access to virtually every stock and ETF.

可以自由做多或做空，灵活性正是专业交易员所期待的。

Go long or short freely with the flexibility professional traders expect.

评估你的标准只有一个，那就是你管理风险和稳定执行的能力。

You're evaluated on one thing, your ability to manage risk and execute with consistency.

达到标准，你就能大规模交易。

Meet the standard and you trade at scale.

没有订阅费，也没有长期承诺。

No subscriptions, no ongoing commitments.

无论你是在完善策略，还是有经验但尚未突破的交易员，或是经验丰富、只想要更多资金的职业人士，Trade the Pool 都能根据你的情况，帮你更进一步。

Whether you're still refining your strategy, a trader with experience who hasn't yet broken through, or a seasoned professional simply looking for more capital, Trade the Pull is built to meet you where you are and take you that next step further.

市场在进化，交易渠道在进化，现在交易员的运作方式也在进化。

The markets have evolved, access has evolved, now so has the way traders operate within them.

Trade the Pool。

Trade the pool.

是的。

Yes.

那你觉得，交易中的心理层面是不是你早期最难克服的部分？

So would you say that the psychology side of trading was probably the biggest part you struggled with early on?

你知道吗，我总觉得像风险管理、仓位大小、指标是什么、怎么编码这些技术性的东西，都是很具体的。

You know, I always think mechanics, like risk management, position sizing, what an indicator is, how to code it, any of this stuff, it's all very tangible.

真正难的是那些摸不着边的东西。

It's the amorphous stuff that is impossible.

对吧？

Right?

这时候就又回到了魔方的那种思路，我觉得这也是很多人追求的那种挑战。

That's where the the Rubik's cube approach comes back in and kind of the challenge I think many of us are seeking.

对吧？

Right?

不管你信不信，交易带给我们的满足感，其实就来自于那种挫败感。

The fulfillment that we get from trading, believe it or not, is in the frustration.

那是因为我们知道，它不仅在推动我们走在交易的道路上，也在推动我们走在人生的道路上。

And that's because we know that it's forcing us along the path of life as much as it's forcing us along the path of trading.

所以，是的，简单回答你的问题。

And so, yes, simple answer to your question.

当然，没错。

Hell, yeah.

我的意思是，心理层面才是真正把我们所有人区分开来的东西。

I mean, psychology is what separates, I think, all of us.

我要借用丹·夏皮罗的一句话。

I'm gonna steal a Dan Shapiro quote.

他是另一个和古奇团队合作的人，他肯定能讲得更深入。

He's another guy who's working with the with Gucci's group, and he could certainly speak more about it.

但他提到过在一家公司工作时，一个月里，有两个家伙坐在一起。

But he was talking about working at a firm where in one month, there's two guys sitting next to each other.

他们用的是同样的软件和同样的系统。

They're using the same software and the same system.

一个人十二月份赚了一百五十万，而他旁边那个人却在亏钱。

One guy makes a million and 0.5 in December, and the guy next to him loses money.

差别在哪里？

What's the difference?

那一定就是心理因素了。

And it has to be psychology.

你看，他们面对市场的界面是一样的。

I mean, when you look at it, they've got the same interface with the markets.

他们几乎是紧挨着坐的，距离近得不能再近了。

They're literally they're as colocated as you can get relative to each other.

对吧？

Right?

除了他们处理手头信息的方式不同，其他没有任何区别。

There's there's nothing to separate them other than the way they process the information at their disposal.

所以，我们能追求的就是变得更诚实、更有自我意识。

And so what we can aspire to is becoming more honest and self aware.

这是第一步。

That's step one.

然后第二步就是真正的精通、掌控或控制。

And then secondly is like the actual mastery or command or control.

我觉得每个人来找我，作为交易教练，都是想知道怎么管住自己。

I think everybody comes to me as a trading coach looking for how do I get myself, you know, reined in.

对吧？

Right?

我知道自己是个好交易员，但就是老是亏大钱。

I know I'm a good trader, but I just seem to keep taking these big losses.

那我会说，那你算多好的交易员呢？

And I would say, well then how good of a trader are you?

他们会说，你干嘛这样啊，兄弟？

And they say, well, why are you doing this, man?

你应该给我加油打气才对。

You should be my cheerleader.

我说，不。

And I say, no.

我应该是你的教练。

I should be your your coach.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，我们前几天还开玩笑说这个，对吧？

I mean, we we joked about this the other day, right?

反正我穿啦啦队服也不好看。

I don't look very good in a cheerleading outfit anyway.

而且，你知道，我板着脸对你吼可能比光跟你说你能行更赚钱。

And, you know, being gruff and screaming at you is probably a little more profitable than me just telling you that you're gonna make it.

你能行。

You're gonna make it.

我们有朋友、同事和配偶来干这个，对吧？

We've got friends and colleagues and spouses, right, for for that.

我在这里是为了帮你赚更多的钱，推动你沿着这条路走下去。

I'm here to make you more money, and I'm here to to push you along that path.

我觉得交易心理这块，我也不怪大家做得不好。

I think with the trading psychology, it's also something that I don't blame people for being bad at.

我们有多少次被要求对自己诚实？

How often are we tasked with being honest with ourselves?

我觉得在很多不同的方面，很多不同的哲学层面上，我们其实都在负责欺骗自己。

I think in many different ways and at many different kind of philosophical levels, we are in charge of deceiving ourselves.

不管是想着我不想，你知道，把这个扯到政治或者宗教什么的。

Whether it's thinking that I don't want to, you know, break this out to, like, politics or or, like, religion or something.

但我想我大致的意思是，我们都在努力让自己感觉更好，而不是变得更好。

But I guess I'm I'm broadly getting at we are all trying to just feel better, not be better in our lives.

我指的是每一个层面、规模和范围。

And I mean that at every single, you know, level and scale and scope.

是时候开始照照镜子，诚实地面对要提升自己需要付出什么，不管是财务上的，还是，我觉得，职业上的，也就是对现在的工作感到更满足。

It's about time that we started looking in the mirror and and being honest about what it's gonna take to advance ourselves, whether that's financially or or just, I think, you know, professionally, meaning feeling more fulfilled with the job that we have.

再说一次，认识我的人都知道，早年那些日子真的很难熬。因为，你知道，那些没有被高盛淘汰的朋友，那些依然拥有光鲜亮丽、令人羡慕的职业的朋友，我真的很敬佩他们，也很仰慕他们。

That's something, again, anybody who knows me knows that those early years were such a struggle, because I had you know, the the friends who didn't get bounced out of Goldman, let's say, but the the friends who still had exciting, high profile careers, I really admired them, and I looked up to them.

而我却没有得到同样的成就感，因为我从事的是一个孤独的独立职业。我常常会想，比如，我最糟糕的一年，只赚了3.5万或4万美元。

And and I wasn't receiving the same kind of fulfillment because I was in a lonely independent profession where I always think about like, you know, one of my worst years, I made $35,000 or $40,000.

而我的朋友们赚的是我的两三倍。

I had friends who were making two or three times that.

当你想到你交易10万美元，赚了40%的时候。

And when you think about you're trading a $100,000, you make 40%.

从百分比来看，这简直太疯狂了。

That's insane percentage wise.

但说真的，这又怎样呢？

But like, really?

最后到手只有，你知道，在我看来中等偏上的收入？

To walk away with only, you know, a kind of medium income in my mind?

这可不是我当初上顶尖25所学校的目的。

That's that's not really what I went to a top 25 school for.

这可不是我每天花二十个小时、一周六天拼命工作的目的。

That's not what I'm spending twenty hours a day, six days a week working on?

这太荒谬了。

It's ridiculous.

我在牺牲我的时间、健康和心理健康。

I'm sacrificing my time, my health, my psychological well-being.

那段时间真的非常艰难。

It was really pretty brutal there.

而且，你知道，我总想起——我不想开始讲我的圣杯，成交量加权平均价格，VWAP，我知道我们一会儿会聊到它，但我真的对它充满敬意，因为我真心崇拜它。

And, you know, I always think back to, like I don't wanna start speaking about, my holy grail, volume weighted average price, VWAP, which I know we're gonna get to in a little bit, but I really do I speak about it with reverence because it's something I truly revere.

如果我没有找到那个让我产生共鸣、让我觉得有意义的东西，我在2011年就会放弃这个行业了。

If had I not found something that resonated with me, that made sense to me, I would have given up this business in 2011.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

我不知道我能不能再多撑一年，因为当时我同样感到非常幻灭。

I don't know if I would have made it another year, because I was so similarly disillusioned.

我不相信我能靠花钱买到教育。

I didn't believe that the things that I was I I, you I could pay for education.

我可以继续到处找点零碎的知识。

I could continue to try and scrape tidbits here or there.

我可以试着在Skype上联系一些人。

I could try and reach out to people on Skype.

还有几位早期的导师，他们看到我在投入时间，觉得我值得给个机会。

And it was a few other early mentors who recognized that I was putting in the time and I was I was worth kinda giving a shot to.

倒不是说，我希望自己是史蒂夫·科恩的实习生之类的。

Not so much that I, you know, I I wish I had a you know, I was, oh, I was Stevie Cohen's intern or something like that.

没有。

No.

我从来没跟什么大人物合作过，比如行业巨头那种。

I've never worked with anyone gigantic, you know, a titan of industry like that.

但是，你知道，甚至有人说，嘿，来印第安纳波利斯，来研讨会上讲讲。

But, you know, even people who said, hey, come come to Indianapolis and and speak, you know, at at the seminar.

这个月我们需要一个演讲者，你看起来挺懂行的。

We need a speaker this month, and and you seem like you know your stuff.

我们很希望你能来。

We'd love to have you.

哪怕只是站在一个有一百个人认真听我讲话的房间里，也让我意识到我确实在做一件有意义的事。

And even just standing in a room with a 100 people listening intently to what I was talking about, it made me realize that I'm onto something.

你知道，这不只是我自我安慰。

You know, this isn't this isn't just me convincing myself to feel better.

还有那些聪明、挑剔、认真评估的人，他们说，对，你说得对。

This is other people who are sharp and scrutinizing and evaluating this and saying, yo, you're right.

我不在乎你才24岁或25岁。

I don't care that you're 24 or 25 years old.

你看起来像我孙子，但我想多听听这个。

You know, you you look like my grandson, but I I wanna I wanna hear more about this.

无论是直觉上、数学上，还是从日常图表上的轶事证据来看，它都让我产生了共鸣。

It intuitively, it mathematically, and it anecdotally, you know, kind of evidence on the charts day in, day out, resonated with me.

从那以后，我就再也没回头过。

And I've never looked back.

我从来没有，从来没有找到过其他东西能这么强烈地打动我。

I've I've never, never found anything else that has so strongly struck me.

好，那我们现在就聊聊VWAP这个话题吧。

Yeah, let's get on to that VWAP topic now.

那你最初是怎么发现VWAP的？

So how did you first discover VWAP?

你是偶然碰到的，还是说这其实填补了你一直在寻找的某个空白？

Did you accidentally stumble across it or was this something that actually filled a void and something that you were actually looking for?

说实话，要回想那么多年以前的事，还真有点难。

So I I it's tough to think back, that many years.

天哪，我听起来好老啊。

God, I sound so old.

我今年28，快29了，说清楚一下。

I'm 28 for the record, almost 29.

Aaron，你多大来着？

Aaron, you're what?

24岁？

24?

24岁。

24.

对。

Yeah.

24岁，我想说。

24, wanna say.

这太有意思了。

So it's so funny.

我们在这儿聊变老，就像两个二十多岁的人在播客里聊变老一样。

We're talking about getting old, like a couple of 20 year olds on a podcast talking about getting old.

现在的年轻人啊。

Kids these days.

所以我觉得这是零对冲和几个因素加在一起的结果。

So I think it was a combination of zero hedge.

我一时想不起这个人的名字。

Struggling to remember this guy's name.

给我一点时间。

Give me a second.

AlphaTrends的Brian Shannon，还有在thinkorswim基础平台上，他们平台里内置的一个入门级研究指标，就是成交量加权平均价格。

Brian Shannon of AlphaTrends, and also on the thinkorswim basic platform, one of their beginner studies that they they just had included in the platform was volume weighted average price.

所以，加上听别人聊过这个指标，我自己也去多了解了一下，再加上发现我可以自己把它加到图表上。

And so a combination of hearing a few other people talk about it, learning more about the metric on my own, as well as realizing I could put it on my own charts.

我可以自己去探索。

I could explore it myself.

我觉得这种动手实践的方式正是大家需要的。

That's the kind of hands on thing that I think people need.

这也是为什么我总提醒大家，每当有机会说‘嘿，我直接跟着这个人做就行了’的时候，要小心。

It's it's it's why I always caution people whenever there's an opportunity to, hey, I could just follow this guy.

我是说，他确实有一些很棒的选股。

I mean, he's got some great picks.

但问题是，是的，但你并没有真正学到什么。

It's like, yeah, but you're not really learning anything.

而且，光看好的交易，却没有被告知如何找到好的交易，你成为更好交易者的概率其实非常低。

And like the odds of you becoming a better trader from seeing good trades, but not being instructed as to how to find the good trades, I mean, it's just very low probability.

所以，这其实是三者的结合。

So so it's a mix of of all three.

就像我说的，它之所以流行起来，一部分是因为当时人们都在讨论Nanex和高频交易，还有那种对市场微观结构的非常细致的观察。

Like I said, a little bit of it was popularized because I think people were talking about Nanex and HFT and kind of like really granular view into market microstructure at the time.

所以当时就有讨论，比如说，某个东西被报价的频率和被交易的频率。

And so there was discussion of how often something would be quoted versus traded, let's say.

那时候他们用VWAP作为基准。

And at the time they would use VWAP as a benchmark.

现在VWAP已经存在了几乎和我在地球上的时间一样长了。

Now VWAP has been around like almost as long as I've been on this earth.

我觉得它最晚在八十年代或九十年代就已经有了。

I think it's been around since the eighties or nineties at at absolute latest.

这是一种机构用来衡量交易成交质量的基准方式。

And it's an institutional way of benchmarking how a trade is filled.

所以，如果你们有人不熟悉VWAP，我就用三十秒简单介绍一下，然后我就闭嘴，让大家能跟上节奏。

So for all of you who aren't familiar with VWAP, I'll give, like, the thirty second, and then I'll muzzle myself primer on VWAP here just so people can get up to speed.

我们大概都见过简单移动平均线。

We've all probably seen a simple moving average before.

这其实就是对价格进行定期评估，比如，你知道的，20根K线。

So this is just taking some periodic assessment of price where, like, you know, 20 bars.

当我们看过去20根K线，把所有价格加起来，再除以20。

When we look 20 bars in the past, add up all the prices, and divide by 20.

我们就得到了一个简单的平均价格。

We arrive at a simple average price.

我们也可以用指数平均，意思是在计算平均值时，对最近的价格行为赋予更大的权重。

We could also do an exponential average, meaning we apply exponentially more weight in that average calculation to more recent price action.

所以我们是想让它对近期的活动更敏感一些，而不是对更久远、更老的活动。

So we're kind of trying to make it more responsive to more recent activity versus the longer dated, the older activity.

这有点像金发姑娘原则。

So it's kind of like a Goldilocks.

不知道你有没有听过那个金发姑娘的故事。

I don't know if you've heard the, you know, Goldilocks story.

你知道的，这个太烫了。

You know, this is too hot.

这个太凉了。

This is too cold.

而这碗粥刚刚好。

Well, this porridge is just right.

同样，VWAP就像是那种刚刚好的移动平均线。

Similarly, VWAP was kind of the moving average that was just right.

它在需要灵活的时候灵活，不需要反应的时候就不反应。

It was dynamic when it needed to be, you know, not responsive when it should be not responsive.

简单来说，这取决于某个K线图的成交量占全天总成交量的比例。

And that simply, you know, comes down to how much volume is being traded for a given candle as a function of the total cumulative volume for the entire day.

换个角度想，艾伦，我们俩可能在成绩上都有过这种体验。

So another way to think about this is, you know, we've probably experienced this with our grades before, Aaron, you and I.

当你上一门重要的课时，它在你的加权平均分里占的比重就很高，而像在美国这边叫选修课的那种，算是边缘课程，占的比重就低。

When you're taking an important class, it factors into your weighted grade point average very highly versus when you're taking, you know, an elective class as they're called here in The United States, kind of a peripheral class.

比如戏剧课可能就算这种。

Maybe drama might be considered this.

它最后算总成绩的时候，可能只算半个学分。

It would only be weighted half of a credit into your, ultimate calculation.

这其实就是对成绩单里更重要的部分赋予更大的权重。

This is applying more significance to more significant, accordingly, parts of your grade point average.

所以我们在日常生活中都经历过这种计算，但从来没想过，嘿。

So we've all experienced this math in our daily lives, but we've never really thought, hey.

我觉得这样更合理。

I guess that makes more sense.

当交易量更大的时候，那根K线就比只有300股交易的时候更重要。

When when there's more shares traded, that's a more important candle than when there were 300 shares traded.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

比如在午餐时间。

During lunchtime.

这真的让我很有共鸣。

And that really strongly resonated.

我知道这是我在这个播客里用得最多的词——共鸣，但确实如此。

I know I've that's the word I'm using the most during this podcast resonate, but it it really did.

它真的触动了我，因为我见过大额交易发生。

It it, it struck a chord in me that I've seen large trades happen.

我很容易就能推测出为什么那些大额交易比盘后那些小小的300股交易更重要。

I can very easily hypothesize why those might be more important than the tiny little 300 share trades in the after hours or something.

我希望我的工具也能反映出同样的直觉判断。

I wanted my tools to reflect that same intuitive thesis.

我想理解的，不只是某个周期内的平均价格。

I wanted to understand, not just what some periodic measure of the average price.

你知道，这是个玩笑。

You know, this is a joke.

艾伦，你和我之间已经来回说过很多次了。

Aaron, you and I have made many times back and forth to each other.

就像，你不会在生活里周期性地问其他问题。

Like, you know, you don't periodically ask any other question in your life.

你不会问你的，你知道，你的另一半。

You don't ask your, you know, your spouse.

嗨，亲爱的。

Hi, honey.

你最近二十个小时过得怎么样？

How have you been for the last twenty hours?

你知道，我们寻找的是，像是一个主题性的问题。

You know, we're we're looking for, like, a thematic question.

比如，自从上次见面以来你过得怎么样？

Like, how have you been since I last saw you?

或者那次旅行怎么样？

Or how was that trip?

或者，你懂我的意思吗？

Or or you know what I mean?

我们问的是主题性的问题，累积性的问题。

We're asking thematic questions, cumulative questions.

所以，你知道，再总结一下这些，这远远超过三十秒。

And so, you know, trying to summarize all this again, this is way more than thirty seconds.

请原谅我。

Forgive me.

你知道，我们试图把数学应用到交易体验上。

You know, we're trying to put we're trying to put math around the the trading experience.

我们试图建立一个简单的模型，但这很难做到。

We're trying to to build some sort of simple model that and it's very hard to do.

做过系统化交易的人都知道这一点。

Anyone who's done systematic trading knows this.

你不可能用一个模型去适应所有市场类型。

You can't really build one model to fit all market types.

但是，通过让市场随着时间推移来决定模型，这有点像对市场说，嘿。

But by letting the market, as it goes on, determine the model, there's some benefit to kinda saying to the market, hey.

你比我聪明。

You're smarter than I am.

对吧？

Right?

我只是一个试图拟合曲线来理解市场真实平均价格的人。

I'm just a guy trying to trying to fit, you know, some curve for understanding a true average price about the market.

市场先生，你能告诉我该怎么设置这个模型吗？

Could you tell me, mister Market, how I should set up this model?

然后市场说，哦，当然可以。

And the market says, oh, sure.

你就跟着我的成交量走，按当前成交量来，就是当前K线的成交量跟总累计量的关系。

Just, you know, go ahead and follow my volume as a function of the current volume, you know, the current candles volume versus the total cumulative.

要是真这么简单就好了，但我其实想说，就是这么简单。

I mean, if only it were that easy, but I'm I'm kind of saying that it is.

很多时候，市场会告诉你该怎么去理解或者感知它的行为。

The market many times will tell you how we should interpret or intuit, the way it's acting.

这种看法其实挺反直觉的。

And that's a very counterintuitive way of looking at it.

通常我们习惯的是，这里有个指标。

I mean, typically, we're used to, here's an indicator.

它比价格滞后几根K线。

It lags price by a few bars.

所以呢，我就得一直比市场慢几分钟。

So therefore, I should, you know, expect to always be a few minutes behind the market.

我从来没见过哪个指标对市场的反应，能比市场对这个指标的反应还大。

I've never seen anything where the market reacts to this indicator as much as this indicator reacts to the market.

所以这就回到了VWAP的历史背景。

And so that ties back in with kind of history of VWAP.

它是为大交易商设计的，用来衡量他们的执行质量。

It was built for large traders to benchmark their execution quality.

我交给那个经纪商的订单，他是不是等到收盘才在高点买入？

Did the broker that I gave this order to wait until the end of the day and then buy at the very highs?

他是不是坑了我？

You know, did he kinda screw me?

还是他利用自己的投资眼光和人脉帮我拿到了好价格？

Or did he use his investment acumen and his connections to get me a good price?

他是不是按真实平均价格给我成交的？

Is he filling me at the true average price?

我们这么想吧。

Let's think about it that way.

虽然这说法有点不准确，但这样理解VWAP比较容易。

I mean, it was kind of a misnomer, but, an easy way of thinking about VWAP.

这是当天更准确、更真实的平均价格。

It's the more accurate, the more honest average price for the day.

所以很酷的是，我们终于有了工具来回答那些一直存在但从未有工具回答的问题。

So it's neat that we finally got the tools to answer questions, that we've always had but never had the tools to answer.

你知道，当交易员问，自从中午或一天中某个时间点消息出来后，这只股票是怎么交易的？

You know, when traders ask, how has this stock traded since that news came out at noon or whatever time in the middle of the day?

我们不会设置一个周期移动平均线，其长度取决于我们离那个时间点有多远，因为那是不可能的。

We're not gonna set up a periodic moving average that is x number of bars long depending on how far away we are from that point in time Because that's impossible.

我们得从一根K线开始，然后下一根K线，比如一分钟后，我们得把它设为两根K线的移动平均线。

We'd have to start it at one bar and then the next bar, you know, a minute later, we'd have to set it to two bars moving average.

再下一根K线，三根。

Next bar, three bars.

我们得不断回去修改它。

We constantly have to go back and keep changing it.

从纯粹的工作流程角度来看，那是不现实的。

That is unrealistic as far as what we're gonna do in just a pure workflow perspective.

我是说，老是得去改技术指标，那真的很烦。

I mean, that's just annoying to have to go in and edit your technical indicators all the time.

但问题还是那个：这只股票自某个重要事件以来表现如何？

But that question remains, how has this stock traded since some important event?

或者这只股票当天表现如何？

Or how has the stock traded for the day?

谁在乎20周期、50周期还是200周期？

Who cares about 20 periods or 50 periods or 200 periods?

那些都是入门时教你的随意基准，就像婴儿食品一样，是当时你能消化的东西。

Those are arbitrary benchmarks taught to you when you're a beginner because like baby food, it's what you can handle at that time.

如果你在听这个播客，我是认真的。

And if you're listening to this podcast, I mean it.

你不是吃婴儿食品的人。

You are not a baby food consumer.

你至少是个中级交易者。

You are at the very least an intermediate trader.

我这么说是因为，如果你愿意花时间，花一个小时听交易员聊交易这门手艺，那你肯定不是交易心态上的新手了。

And I mean that because if you're putting in the time, you're spending an hour to listen to traders talk about the craft, then, you know, you're you're certainly not an an, you know, an infant in trading mentality.

我觉得，艾伦，你和我一直在找的就是这样的人。

And those are the guys that I feel like, you know, you and I, Aaron, we're looking for.

我们想和更多这样的交易者建立联系。

We're looking to connect with more traders like that.

我总觉得有点不好意思。

I always feel kind of bad.

让我稍微跑个题。

Let me go off on a little tangent here.

当绝对的新手来找我指导时，我总觉得有点过意不去。

I always feel kind of bad when an absolute beginner comes to me for coaching.

他们非常积极。

They're very eager.

他们说，是我朋友推荐我来的，说你最厉害。

They say, you know, you my buddy referred me to you and say you're the best.

我会说，那很好，但也许我不是最适合你的人。

I say, that's great, but maybe I'm not the best for you.

比如，也许你最好先自己下点功夫，把那些免费的资源都利用起来。

Like, maybe it's better for you to do the kind of legwork of getting what's available for free out there.

实际上，最近几周我多次推荐人们去听《Chat With Traders》，我说这可是个超棒的资源，能让你听到交易员们的分享，了解他们怎么说——‘我的人生手册是什么？’

I actually many times have referred in the last couple weeks people to Chat With Traders saying this is this is a killer resource for talking to traders and hearing what they have to say about, what is my life manual?

你怎么能从我的经验中学到东西，今天就能更进一步，而不用像我那样在市场上跌跌撞撞七年？

How can you learn from my experience and get further ahead today without spending seven years stuttering through the markets as I have?

我想我其实应该说两年半，真的，就是一路摸索过来的。

I guess I should only say two and a half years really, you know, stumbling through.

最近几年我做得稍微好一点了，所以我可以笑着说这话。

I've I've done I've done a little bit better in the last couple years, so I I can say that was a smile.

对。

Yeah.

我也不太清楚。

I I don't know.

我在想，新手交易者往往是最渴望学习的人，但同时也是最不适合学习的人。

I I think about how how often beginning traders are the ones most eager for education, but also the ones least suited for it.

所以这有点反直觉，要是我们能跟那些觉得自己陷入困境的人聊聊，那些正在琢磨下一个策略、但想比上次做得更好的人，就好了。

And so it's that kind of counterintuitive where if only we could talk to the people who feel like they're in a rut, the people who are, you know, crafting their their next strategy, but wanna go about this one better than the last one.

这些人是我最喜欢的。

This is the people that I love.

我喜欢和他们交流，而且说实话，我也从他们身上学到了不少。

I love connecting with and I I honestly, I learned quite a bit from them too.

我们之前聊过这个。

We were talking about this.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

我总是忍不住提起我们之前聊过的话题，Aaron，但我觉得任何听众都会想听这个。

I keep pulling back to our conversations from other days, Aaron, but I feel like the, you any listener would wanna hear this.

我们之前聊到，比如看勒布朗·詹姆斯打球，和看大学运动员或者奥运选手的区别。

We were talking about watching LeBron James, let's say, versus watching a collegiate athlete or or an Olympian even.

有些业余水平的，你知道，不是勒布朗·詹姆斯那个级别的。

Some some amateur level, you know, non let's say, LeBron James level.

从正在成长的运动员身上学习要容易得多。

It's a lot easier to learn from the developing athlete.

你看的时候，能看出他们脚步哪里不对。

When, you know, you're watching, you can see when their foot work is off.

你能看出他们的平衡或姿势哪里有点偏差。

You can you can see when their balance or posture is slightly off.

对于正在成长的交易者来说，情况也差不多。

For a developing trader, it's much the same thing.

最优秀的交易者让一切看起来都那么简单。

The best traders make it look so easy.

我觉得，对于处于这个旅程、这个光谱的初期和中期阶段是什么样子，需要有一种谦逊和尊重，要明白那仍然是一个艰难挣扎的过程，并且理解为什么它仍然是一个艰难挣扎的过程。

And I think there's a certain humility and respect for what it's like to be at the beginning and intermediate stage of that that kind of that journey, that spectrum, understanding that it is still a grind and a struggle and and why it is still a grind and a struggle.

如果非要简单回答一下那个小问题的话，我会说，交易者没有很好地利用他们面前的技术。

And if I had to kind of answer that own little question in in a nutshell, I'd say it's traders don't do a good job of using the technology in front of them.

所以这一直是我的一个理念上的使命。

And so that's been my kind of philosophical mandate.

我该怎么说服别人，不管是在编程方面，还是如果他们仍然打算手动交易，我怎样才能让他们的工作流程变得更好？

How do I convince people whether it's on coding, or or just if they're still gonna be a hand trader, how can I make their workflow better?

那样的话，不仅会让你感觉更好，也会让你的交易表现更好。

That's where it will not only make you feel better, it'll make you trade better too.

不管是独立于VWAP还是与VWAP相关，这是我在过去两年、两年半、三年里真正引以为傲的事情。

And VWAP independent or related to VWAP, that's something that I'm really proud of doing over the last two, two and a half, three years.

不，你说得很好。

No, that's really good if you put that well.

那我们就让听众更容易理解，让他们能想象出VWAP线是如何在图表上画出来的。

So let's just make it really straightforward for the listeners so they can sort of picture how a VWAP line is actually plotted on a chart.

好的。

Sure.

那么，到底是什么在推动那条线并在图表上绘制它呢？

So what is it that pretty much moves that line and plots it on the chart?

没问题。

No problem.

它看起来就像一条移动平均线。

So it looks just like a moving average.

它的作用就像枢轴点一样。

It acts just like a pivot.

所以我总是告诉人们，如果你学过支撑和阻力，做过枢轴点，学过移动平均线，见过移动平均线，那这就是一个正向的迁移。

So I always tell people this is a positive transference of if you've learned support and resistance, you've done pivots, you've learned moving averages, you've seen moving averages.

恭喜你。

Congratulations.

你已经具备了学习成交量加权平均价所需的技能，所以你已经提前合格了。

You are preapproved for learning volume weighted average price because you've already got the requisite skills.

它比人们通常习惯的移动平均线要慢一些。

It is a slower moving average than people are typically used to.

所以很多人第一次在日内图表上加上成交量加权平均价时，会说，哎呀，这东西是不是坏了。

So a lot of people when they first put a volume weighted average price on an intraday chart, they say, ah, this thing is broken.

它并没有真正跟随价格。

It's not really following price.

我说，但这正是它的好处。

And I say, but that's the benefit.

它告诉你的是当天平均价格的一个真实基准。

It is telling you an honest benchmark of average price throughout the day.

价格与它的关系，以及这条线本身的一些特征，才是我们作为VWAP交易者关注的重点。

Now price's relationship to that and the, you know, some characteristics of the line itself are what we try and pay attention to as VWAP traders.

但最简单的理解方式是，早上的时候，它反应非常灵敏。

But the simplest way to picture it is early in the morning, it's very responsive.

到了中午，它开始变得迟缓。

In the middle of the day, it starts slowing down.

临近收盘时，它又会稍微加快速度。

Towards the end of the day, it'll slightly pick back up speed.

这是因为当天成交量分布的特性决定的。

And that's because of the nature of a volume profile of the day.

大家都能想象到这一点。

You can all kind of picture this.

我相信我们都交易过很多图表，见过并想象过这种情况。

I'm sure we've we've all traded enough charts to see this and visualize this.

交易时段的前三十分钟和后三十分钟通常是成交量最高的时段。

The first thirty minutes and the last thirty minutes, of the trading session are typically the highest volume periods.

因为这是成交量加权平均价格，所以有两件事会影响它。

And so because it's a volume weighted average price, you know, two things can impact this.

对吧？

Right?

我们可以把VWAP拆成VW，也就是成交量加权。

We can separate VWAP into VW, volume weighted.

这是通过成交量影响它的一个方式。

That's one way to impact it through the volume.

然后平均价格是通过价格来影响的。

And then average price through price.

这是影响VWAP的第二种方式。

That's the second way to impact the VWAP.

所以，如果价格偏离成交量加权平均价格很多个标准差，它就会开始带动VWAP一起移动。

So if price moves exceptionally far away, many, many standard deviations from the volume weighted average price, it will begin pulling the VWAP with it.

同样，价格不需要偏离很远，但如果成交量很大，那么成交量加权平均价格就会上升，以反映这个新信息。

Similarly, it doesn't have to be very far away at all, but if there's heavy volume being traded, then the volume weighted average price will, you know, rise to meet that that new information.

所以我总是告诉人们，如果你曾经好奇那些大机构用什么指标，因为他们交易的是数百万股。

So I always tell people, if you've ever dreamed of what are the big boys using because, I mean, they're trading millions of shares.

他们可能用什么指标呢？

What could they possibly be using?

他们用RSI吗？

Are they using an RSI?

他们用别的什么吗？

Are they using something?

他们可能关注的就是类似这样的东西。

What they're probably watching is something similar to this.

他们是在试图了解其他大额交易者是如何与这个平均价格互动的。

They're they're trying to understand how other large traders are interacting with this average price.

他们是在积极地把价格越推越高，越来越急切地想投入资金，即使价格还没有回撤到一个安全的入场点？

Are they aggressively trading higher and higher away from it, more and more eager to put their money to work even though we haven't pulled back to a safe point to launch the trade from?

可以说这是一种激进的市场。

Kind of an aggressive market, let's call it.

还是他们更犹豫不决？

Or are they more hesitant?

想想沃伦·巴菲特这样的人，当然我假设巴菲特是做日内交易的。

Think of the Warren Buffets on an even you know, I'm kind of assuming Warren Buffet is an intraday trader.

但如果他是的话，他会试图买入，我不想说图表底部，但可以说是一个相对合理的价位。

But if he were, he'd be trying to buy I don't wanna call it the bottom of the chart, but, you know, a fairly valued, let's just say.

我们就说得笼统一点吧。

We'll leave it very general and vague.

对吧？

Right?

估值合理的投资。

Fairly valued investments.

他在寻找更安全的回调点，这样他可以把资金投入进去，而不会觉得自己在追高。

He's looking for safer pullbacks where he can put his capital to work and not feel like he's chasing something.

围绕这个指标有很多交易策略，而且我喜欢的是，即使你不是基于VWAP的策略交易者，比如你有其他喜欢的交易系统，它也是一个很好的解读指标，用来判断今天应该持有什么样的偏向。

There are many strategies that you can trade around this, and and I like that even if you weren't a strategy trader based on VWAP, let's say you had some other system that you like to trade, it's a great interpretive metric for how should I be biased about this day.

所以这是另一件我觉得很多交易者没有做到的事情。

And so that's another thing that I don't see enough traders doing.

你知道，这有点像，我今天该穿什么？

You know, it's sort of like, what do I need to wear today?

嗯，天气怎么样？

Well, what's the weather?

你甚至都没问是白天还是晚上。

Well, you're you're not even asking if it's day or night.

你懂吧？

You know?

你应该先问一个大的方向，比如，这个市场我到底该不该交易？

You should ask that broad delineation of, like, is this something I should be trading or not?

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I'm kinda saying?

很多交易者其实没有做这种基础层面的判断。

Like, traders don't do enough low level assessment.

他们就想直接跳到，那我在哪里进场？

They wanna jump right into, well, where should I enter?

止损放在哪里？

Where do I put my stop?

该交易多少股？

How many shares should I trade?

但问题是，这个市场本身是不是我想交易的？

It's like, what about like, is this a market I wanna trade?

它是否符合那些能让我进入正确状态的大前提？

Does this meet broad criteria that even would put me into the right space?

那我就先把这个抛出来，大家随便聊，跑题也没关系。

So I'll I'll throw this out there and free me for the meandering of the tangentials and stuff.

但这个策略会引导人们走向更好的交易原则，比如交易高流动性的股票，像那些超大盘的证券。

But this strategy directs people, you know, to better trading principles, like trading high liquidity names, you know, mega cap securities.

我不是说那些能在小盘股或中盘股赚钱的人不好，我真的是这么想的。

Not to dish on anybody who can make money in small caps or mid caps, and I and I mean that.

我自己水平不够，交易不了小盘和中盘股，所以我才不碰它们。

I am not good enough of a trader to be trading small and mid caps, so that's why I'm not trading them.

但这个策略本身就会引导你去交易流动性很强的证券。

But the strategy inherently leads you towards trading very liquid securities.

我就喜欢交易那些别人都觉得无聊的股票。

I love trading the boring names that everybody else says.

你今天怎么交易摩根大通？

How are you trading JPMorgan today?

那个股票几乎没怎么动。

That thing barely moved.

对，是的。

Say, yeah.

嗯，它在图表的一部分时间里涨了45美分。

Well, it moved 45¢, you know, during this one part of the chart.

我只需要这些。

That's really all I need.

我需要的是那种平淡、可预测的股票，而不是混乱、受新闻驱动的。

I need something that is boring and predictable, not chaotic, news driven.

请原谅我。

I was forgive me.

当人们说他们交易的是热门股票时，我真想扇他们一巴掌，然后说，你们为什么要跟着别人走呢？明明还有成千上万的其他机会。

When people say I trade stocks that are in play, I wanna slap them in the face and be like, why are you, you know, following along with where everyone else is when there are a million other opportunities?

如果这是一个非常干涸的市场，只有那些有新闻的股票才会动，那好吧。

If this were a really dried up market where the only things that moved were things that had, you know, news on them, okay.

我理解。

I understand.

对吧？

Right?

你就像个猎人。

You're going you know, you're a hunter.

你去猎物所在的地方，可以这么说。

You're going where the prey is, so to speak.

我们手头有成千上万只股票。

We have thousands of equities at our disposal.

每天出现的模式多到我都来不及用程序去识别、捕捉和交易。

There are patterns happening more than I can programmatically identify and capture and trade every day.

我真不明白，我们怎么不去多交易那些更合理的标的。

I don't know how we we aren't trying to trade more of the reasonable stuff.

我觉得这归根结底是因为，它设计出来是为了让我们感觉良好，而不是为了让我们真正交易得好。

And I think that goes back to, like, it's designed to make us feel better than it could ever make us trade.

我觉得这完全是胡说八道，是时候让像你和我这样的人开始理性地讨论这个问题了。

I think that's bullshit, and it is high time that people like you and I started talking reasonably about it.

这是我们大家都经历过的。

Something we've all experienced.

所以我一直提倡这个概念，因为我们都知道这是真的。

That's why I keep promoting this this concept is we all know this to be true.

就像你看过那些优秀的喜剧演员，比如米奇·赫德伯格、乔治·卡林，虽然他们都去世了，但他们的喜剧风格就是那种“你知道吗，你有没有遇到过这种情况？”

It's like if you've ever seen, you know, good comedians, Mitch Hedberg Mitch Hedberg, George Carlin, both of whom have passed away, but, you know, their style of of comedy is, you know, don't you know it when or haven't you ever experienced it when?

人们通常会跟着笑，因为他们会说：“对。”

And people typically laugh along because they say, yeah.

你说得对。

You're right.

你知道吗？

You know?

我和我女朋友确实遇到过。

It does happen to me and my girlfriend.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

前几天我在工作中就遇到了这种情况。

It happened to me at work the other day.

我确实，我也不知道。

I definitely I don't know.

我非常尊重制定一个现实的计划，而不是一个理想化的计划。

I I I have great respect for building a realistic plan rather than an idealistic plan.

那就是你必须从鹰的模式降下来，把另外三分之二的时间花在老鼠和驴的模式上，可以这么说。

That's where you gotta come down out of eagle mode and spend the other two thirds of your time in mouse and donkey mode, so to speak.

再说一遍，把自己称为驴并不是一个很光彩的比喻，但我想我们都明白我们在说什么。

Again, not a not a really a glorified analogy to call yourself a donkey some days, but I think we all know what we're talking about.

亚伦，你这样做的一个好例子是，你花时间浏览数百甚至数千张日线图，以了解事情的发展，尤其是那些在你更精选的观察名单上的，什么时候进入对你来说重要的区域。

Aaron, a good example of how you do that, you put in the time going through hundreds, if not thousands of daily level charts to stay abreast of when things, you know, especially those on your more selective watch list, are coming into an important zone for you.

我的意思是，那真是令人钦佩。

I mean, that's admirable.

大多数人从来没有进入过驴的模式。

Most people don't ever get to donkey mode.

他们就像老鹰一样飞来飞去，当一分钟老鼠，然后永远到不了驴子那一步。

They kind of fly around as an eagle, spend a minute as a mouse, and then never get to the donkey.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

我是说，这根本就是白费力气。

It's a fool's errand, is what I'm saying.

说得好，说得好。

Will put, will put.

谢谢。

Thanks.

那你觉得谁从这个指标中受益最大？

So who would you say benefits most from this indicator?

比如，它对日内交易者最有效吗？

Like, is it most effective for intraday traders?

那波段交易者呢？

Or what about swing traders?

他们也能利用VWAP吗？

Can they also take advantage of VWAP?

那你觉得它最适合谁用？

So who would you say it's best suited to?

嗯，还行吧。

Well, it's okay.

你刚才说到了一个很好的点。

You're hearing a good point there.

它确实最适合日内交易者和股票交易者。

It's definitely best suited for intraday and equities traders.

我用它做过大宗商品和债券期货。

I've done commodities and bond futures with it.

实际上我还用它做过外汇期货。

I've done forex futures actually with it.

我们通常不能交易货币的原因，是因为缺乏集中的成交量。

The reason we can't trade currencies typically is the lack of centralized volume.

所以，要创建一个成交量加权平均价格会非常困难。

So a volume weighted average price would be very difficult to create.

当然，在期货市场上，我们有可以评估并创建VWAP的成交量，令人惊讶的是，这些市场与您预期的正常VWAP交易有多么接近。

On the futures markets, of course, where we have a volume that we can assess and create a VWAP for, it's amazing how closely those markets proxy the, you know, normal kind of VWAP trading you'd expect.

所以，再次更直接地回答您的问题，如果您是中小盘、大盘或超大盘股票交易者，如果您是日内交易者，并且您首先是一个技术交易者，我想我应该先澄清一下。

So again, to answer your question more directly, if you are a mid cap, large cap, mega cap equities trader, if you're an intraday trader and you are a technical trader, first and foremost, I guess I should I should really clarify.

它确实对波段交易有一些应用，但我必须承认，那不是我开发或实践过的策略，我更多是一个日内交易者。

It does have some applications to swing trading, but I gotta be sensitive to that that's not a strategy that I've developed or put in, you know, put in practice nearly as much as I am an intraday trader.

所以我想让大家认识到，我们学到的原则，无论是RSI、VWAP、农历日历还是其他系统，我想说的是这些原则。

So I want people to recognize that the principles we learn, whether it's RSI or VWAP or lunar calendar or whatever, you know, some other systems is what I'm trying to say.

市场是分形的。

The markets are fractal.

所以我们在日内水平上学到的东西，也会适用于多日或一周的水平。

So what we learn on an intraday level will apply to a multi day or a week long, let's say, level.

它会适用于日线或周线水平，甚至更宏观的视角。

It will apply to a daily level or a weekly level, even bigger zoomed out.

所以这当然可以适用于各种交易风格，但主要还是集中在日内交易上。

So it's something that can certainly apply to kind of, you know, all styles of trading, but definitely focused in on the intraday.

它就是在日内交易中发展起来的。

That's where it was developed.

在那里我们会看到上百个机会。

That's where we're gonna see hundreds.

我是说，上百个，多的我应付不过来。

And I'm I'm I mean that hundreds, plural, more than I can handle.

所以这就是为什么我在找其他交易员来帮我盯着这些。

So So that's why I'm trying to find other traders, you know, to to keep tabs on this.

我觉得有这么多机会真的很令人着迷。

I think it's it's fascinating that there are so many opportunities.

你知道，通常当你找到一个交易系统时，你会很沮丧，因为挑战在于我怎么才能找到那个特定的形态？

You know, usually when you find a trading system, it's frustrating because, you know, the challenge is how am gonna find this very particular setup?

对我来说，就像我想变成一只章鱼，每只章鱼手臂的末端还需要一只小章鱼，来处理所有我需要关注的事情。

For me, it's like I I'm trying to be an octopus and each of my octopus arms needs a little octopus at the end of it to manipulate all the things that I would need to be watching.

这显然也说明了我怎么逐渐变成了一个更系统化的交易者。

And this speaks to obviously how I I grew into more of a systematic trader.

我意识到我的脑子永远不够用，处理不了这么多东西。

I realized that my brain was never gonna be good enough to deal with all this.

你知道，我对自己评价很高，但我还是太笨，管不过来这一切。

You know, I think very highly of myself and I and I'm still too stupid to manage all of this.

所以，是的，主要是日内交易者。

So, yeah, intraday traders mostly.

我确实在波段交易方面指导过，用成交量加权平均价格，它当然也可以应用到更长的时间框架上。

I've definitely coached on the swing trading side with volume weighted average price, and it can certainly be applied to longer dated time frames.

我觉得挑战在于，而且那些熟悉成交量加权平均价格的人，刚才Aaron问怎么在图表上可视化，那正是我希望在讲的时候能提供大量例子的地方。

I think the challenge is that and and certainly people who are familiar with a volume weighted average price, and when Aaron was asking just a minute ago about visualizing it on a chart, that's something that I I hope to have ample examples of ample examples while I'm rhyming.

很多例子，就这样，在Sang Lucci的网站上，这样我们可以多聊聊，并且加上视觉方面的东西。

Tons of examples, there we go, on Sang Lucci's site so that we can talk more about it and kind of add a visual, you know, aspect to it.

但你知道，人们会理解VWAP在一天中慢慢变慢，直到最后三十分钟左右，大多数人都不明白为什么它没有更紧密地跟随价格。

But, you know, people will understand that a VWAP moving slow slower and slower throughout the day up until the very last thirty minutes or so, it's unfamiliar to most people why, you know, why isn't it following price more closely?