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与交易员的对话由Trade the Pool提供。
Chat with traders is brought to you by Trade the Pool.
你知道吗？每十年市场都会自我革新一次。
Did you know that every decade the market reinvents itself?
在线经纪商打开了大门，移动应用让交易变得无缝流畅，零佣金交易消除了障碍。
Online brokers open the doors, mobile apps made trading seamless, and commission free trading erased barriers.
现在，一个新时代已经开启。
Now a new era has begun.
欢迎来到Trade the Pool的限险交易，现在你拥有无限的时间来达成盈利目标。
Meet trade the pool limited risk trading, and now you also have unlimited time to reach the profit target.
从今以后，你的交易风险被限制，而交易机会却是无限的。
From now on, your trading risk is capped, and your trading opportunities are limitless.
Trade the Pool为居家股票交易员提供高达20万美元的交易资金。
Trade the pool funds home based stock traders with up to $200,000 in buying power.
这意味着你可以交易更大的仓位，并扩展你的策略，而无需冒险动用自己的储蓄。
That means you can trade larger positions and scale your strategies without risking your own savings.
是时候用更多资金交易了，让您的时间和努力真正值得。
It's time to trade with more capital, making it truly worth your time and effort.
准备好交易池了吗？
Ready to trade the pool?
点击描述中的链接，今天就加入股票交易革命。
Click the link in the description and join the stock trading revolution today.
您准备好认真对待交易了吗？
Are you ready to get serious about trading?
那就加入TastyTrade吧，这是Investopedia评选的2026年最佳期权交易平台。
Then join TastyTrade, Investopedia's best platform for options trading in 2026.
股票、期权、期货，还有更多。
Stocks, options, futures, and more.
TastyTrade将您交易的所有品种都整合在一个平台上。
TastyTrade has everything you trade all in one platform.
享受低佣金，包括股票零佣金，让您保留更多收益。
Get low commissions, including zero commissions on stocks so you can keep more of what you earn.
通过先进的图表工具、预设策略选择器、风险分析工具等功能，更聪明地交易。
Trade smarter with advanced charting tools, a prebuilt strategy selector, risk analysis tools, and more features.
访问 tastytrade.com/chat 了解更多信息。
Visit tastytrade.com/chat for more information.
TastyTrade 公司。
TastyTrade Inc.
是经 FINRA、NFA 和 SIPC 注册的经纪交易商。
Is a registered broker dealer and member of FINRA, NFA, and SIPC.
市场、投机与风险。
Markets, speculation, and risk.
这是由亚伦·菲费尔德主持的《与交易员聊天》播客。
This is the chat with traders podcast hosted by Aaron Fifeld.
嗯，各位，我不太确定该怎么说，但今天在《与交易员聊天》第109期节目中，我的嘉宾可是个大人物。
Well, guys, I'm not sure how to best say this, but my guest here on chat with traders episode one zero nine is kind of a big deal.
他不仅在金融市场上举足轻重，在赌博圈里也是家喻户晓的人物。
Not only in the world of financial markets, but he's also a household name amongst the gambling scene.
这位先生的名字是爱德华·索普，他先是击败了荷官，后来又击败了市场。
The gentleman's name is Edward Thorp, the man who beat the dealer and later beat the market.
让我解释一下。
Let me explain.
那是二十世纪五十年代末到六十年代初，爱德华——一位数学天才、麻省理工学院的教授——挑战自我，寻找在二十一点、轮盘赌甚至百家乐等赌博游戏中获得优势的方法。
It was the late fifties, early sixties when Ed, a math genius and professor at MIT, took on the challenge of discovering a way to get an edge playing gambling games such as blackjack, roulette, and even baccarat.
简而言之，爱德华赢了，如今他被誉为牌面计数之父。
Long story short, Ed won, and he's now considered the father of card counting.
从那里开始，爱德华下一步自然转向了金融市场，他也同样取得了巨大成功。
From there, the next obvious move for Ed was to take on financial markets, which he also did with a great degree of success.
爱德华的第一个对冲基金——普林斯顿纽波特合伙公司——在十九年期间实现了年化19.1%的回报率（扣除费用前），其中227个月实现盈利，总共230个月。
Ed's first hedge fund, Princeton Newport Partners, achieved an annualized return of 19.1% before fees over a nineteen year period with 227 out of two hundred and thirty months being profitable.
最差的单月亏损不到1%。
The worst monthly loss being less than 1%.
他的第二只基金——里奇林合伙公司——在十年间平均年回报率达21%。
And his second fund, Ridgeline Partners, averaged 21% annually over a ten year period.
我必须完全感谢杰克·施瓦格提供了这些数据，因为我从《对冲基金市场奇才》一书中摘录了它们。
Now I must say full credit to Jack Schwager for these stats as I pinch them out of hedge fund market wizards.
在整场访谈中，我们主要讨论了埃德人生中这段有趣的历程，以及他对优势和资金管理的看法。
Now throughout the interview, we mostly discussed the interesting path Ed has taken through life, but also his thoughts on having an edge and money management.
我真的很希望能有更多时间与埃德交流，因为我还有许多问题想问他，但我们确实聊了相当长一段时间，我对此机会深表感激。
I really wish I did have more time with Ed as there were so many more questions I would like to ask him, but we did speak for about now, and I'm extremely grateful for the opportunity.
最后一件事，我想提醒大家，埃德刚刚出版了一本新书，书名是《战胜所有市场的男人》。
One last thing, I would like you to make note, Ed has a new book which has just been released, and it's titled A Man For All Markets.
这本书现在在亚马逊上可以买到。
It's available now on Amazon.
所以，如果你访问 chatwithtraders.com/thorp，就会直接跳转到亚马逊上的《战胜所有市场的男人》页面。
So if you go to chat with traders.com/thorp, thorp, that will take you directly to A Man For All Markets on Amazon.
总之，我希望你觉得这期节目有趣。
Anyway, I hope you find this episode interesting.
我是亚伦·菲尔德菲尔德。
I'm Aaron Firefield.
请欢迎我的嘉宾，传奇人物爱德华·索普。
Please welcome my guest, the legendary Edward Thorp.
我几乎每天都接触它，所以对这一切如何运作相当熟悉。
I'm on it pretty much every day, so I'm quite familiar with, with how it all works.
但真的非常感谢你抽出时间与我交谈。
But, man, thank you very much for taking the time to speak with me.
这真是莫大的荣幸。
It's it's quite the honor.
哦，谢谢。
Oh, thanks.
埃德，我刚开始读你的书，听到你的第一份工作竟然和我的第一份工作一样，我感到特别有趣。
Ed, I I've begun reading your book, and, I got quite a kick out of hearing that your very first job was actually the same as my very first job.
我们俩都当过送报童。
We were both paper boys.
哦，是的。
Oh, yes.
我觉得读到这一点非常酷。
I thought that was, that was very cool to read about.
另一个某种程度上的相似之处，我也觉得很有意思，那就是你经营过一家独立的广播电台。
And one of the other similarities, to some degree, which, I also thought was quite interesting, is that you ran an independent radio station.
是的。
Yes.
你们当时播送些什么内容？
What sort of things were you broadcasting?
你们坚持了多久？
How long did you keep that up for?
我刚满13岁就拿到了业余无线电操作证，当时主要用两米波段进行语音通信，也稍微接触了一些摩尔斯电码。
Well, I got my ham radio operator license when I was just turning 13, And I was on two meters voice, and also I did a little bit of code.
所以我常和国内各地的人下棋，也跟全州各地的人聊天。
So I used to play chess with people in my part of the country and just chat with people up and down the state.
那时候，由于设备和技术的限制，两米波段的通信范围非常短。
At that time, two meters was very short range with the equipment people had and the techniques they had.
所以你只能覆盖大约100到120英里的范围。
So you could only go about maybe 100, 120 miles.
后来我获得了所有其他频段的资格，可以使用摩尔斯电码和全世界通话，但我主要还是喜欢在两米波段闲聊。
And then I was qualified to go on all the other bands and use code and talk around the world, but I mainly just had fun talking on two meters.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
所以这其实并不是我们今天所理解的那种广播电台？
So it wasn't really a radio station as such like we think about a radio station today?
那是一个业余无线电电台，有发射器和接收器，但并不是那种具有商业或公共传播性质的广播电台。
Well, was a ham radio station is what it was, a transmitter and receiver, but it wasn't a radio station in the sense of having any any commercial or public outreach.
明白了。
Got it.
明白了。
Got it.
好的。
Okay.
是什么让你对这类事情产生兴趣的？
What sparked your interest in that sort of thing?
你那时候还很小吧？
How'd you like, were very young.
我记得你在书里提到过，你可能是班上最年轻去考无线电执照的人。
I think you actually said in your book you were maybe the youngest person in the class going for your radio license.
是什么让你产生兴趣的？
What sparked your interest?
嗯，大概十岁或十一岁的时候，我对所有科学事物都着迷了，于是我就自己去探索。
Well, I got fascinated by all things science when I was about 10 or 11, and so I just explored on my own.
当时的电子技术，特别是有源双工设备，引起了我的兴趣。
And electronics, as they were in that day of active duplex caught my interest.
所以我决定去学习它。
So I decided to learn about it.
当我这么做的时候，我意识到如果我取得业余无线电执照，就能进入一个全新的交流世界，于是我就去追求了。
And when I did, I realized that there was this whole world I could potentially talk to if I got a ham radio license so that was something I pursued.
跟我们讲讲你的童年吧。
Well tell us a little bit about your childhood.
让我们了解一下这里的背景。
Know, the scene for us here.
你的童年是怎样的？
What was your childhood like?
我知道你出生于1932年，那正是大萧条刚开始的时候。
I know you're born in I think it was 1932 which was right when the Great Depression was beginning.
在那段时期，你的童年是怎样的？
What was your childhood like during that phase?
实际上，我出生于八月，而道琼斯指数在1932年7月的崩盘中跌至历史最低点。
Well, actually, was born in August, and the Dow Jones hit its all time low in the crash in July '32.
所以之后一切都在好转，但对很多人来说，要从那段低谷中爬出来却是一段漫长的过程。
So it was it was all up from there, but it was a long a long hole for people to dig themselves out of.
我记得我五六岁的时候，曾在街上向公共事业振兴署的工人卖凉饮。
And I remember when I was five or six, was selling Kool Aid to WPA workers in the street.
我会买一包五分钱的凉饮粉，冲出六杯，每杯卖一分钱。
I would buy a 5¢ pack of Kool Aid and make six glasses out of it and sell them all for a penny a glass.
他们看到我很高兴，因为他们在酷暑中工作，报酬很低，又热又累。
And they were very happy to see me because they were working out in the heat for very little pay and very hot and tired in the summer.
于是我意识到，只要付出一定的劳动，就能反复把五分钱变成六分钱。
So I realized I could turn 5¢ into 6¢ over and over with a fair amount of work.
你当时是什么动力促使你开始工作、试图赚钱的呢？
What was the drive to start working and start trying to earn some money like?
你小时候真的很特别。
You were very interesting, you know, as as a young child.
你很有实验精神，某种程度上甚至是个爱恶作剧的孩子。
You were very kind of experimental, even quite the prankster in some ways.
这种特质是从哪里来的呢？
Like, where did this sort of come from?
你那时候和大多数孩子很不一样。
You were quite different from most kids at that age.
你知道，我不太确定。
You know, I'm not sure.
我觉得很大一部分原因是我很早就开始阅读，经常看书。
I think that a lot of it was I was an early, very early reader, and I got into books a lot.
我发现我学到了很多东西，除了下午出去玩玩游戏之类的，我和其他孩子几乎没有共同话题。
And I found out that I learned so much stuff that there wasn't a whole lot of commonality I had with other kids except except playing, going out and playing games in the afternoon and that sort of thing.
但我想要思考和谈论的事情，似乎只有成年人才会去想和谈。
But the things I wanted to think about and talk about, nobody else seemed to be thinking and talking about except adults.
那么，这种对知识的渴望是从哪里来的呢？
So where did that did that thirst for knowledge come from?
我想部分原因来自我父亲。
Well, I think partly it was my father.
我快三岁的时候，还不会说话。
When I was not quite three, I hadn't talked yet.
然后有一天，我突然开始说完整的句子，这让所有人都感到惊讶。
And then one day I started talking in basically complete sentences, which seemed to amaze everybody.
于是我的父亲说：‘我不知道他能学到多少东西。’
So my father then said, I wonder how much he can learn.
于是他开始教我各种知识，我对此非常开心。
So he started to teach me things and I was very happy about that.
我学会了阅读，学会了数数，学会了进行算术运算，比如加减乘除，这些对我来说都很轻松，之后我开始阅读越来越深奥的书籍。
So I learned to read, I learned to count, I learned to do arithmetic operations, you know, add, subtract, multiply, divide and that seemed to come very easily and then I began to read more and more advanced books.
到我七岁的时候，我已经能很轻松地阅读高中水平的书籍了。
So by the time I was seven, I was reading these high school level books very comfortably.
你觉得数学和科学中，特别吸引你的地方是什么？
And what do you think it was about particularly math and science that was so interesting to you?
数学和科学，我其实不太喜欢数学。
Math and science, I I didn't I didn't math I liked.
我只是喜欢数字。
I just enjoyed numbers.
它们看起来非常有趣，而且有规律。
They seemed very interesting and they had rules.
学习这些规律很有趣。
It was fun to learn what those rules were.
科学则是后来才接触的。
Science came a little bit later.
我想我大约十岁时开始玩矿物套装，然后学会了莫氏硬度等级。
I think I started with a mineral set when I was about 10, and then learned the Mohs scaled hardness.
它们包含了许多样本。
They had a number of examples.
当然，它们没有最顶级的钻石（硬度为10），但包含了从1到9的所有等级。
Of course, they didn't have a top one diamond, which has a hardness of 10, but they had everything up to nine in there.
这对我来说相当有趣。
And so that was pretty interesting to me.
过了一段时间，我开始摆弄化学药品。
And then a little time went by and I began to poke around with chemicals.
从百科全书中学会了如何制作火药，这引起了我的兴趣。
Learned how to make gunpowder out of an encyclopedia and that's kind of caught my interest.
我做过炸弹和火箭之类的玩意儿。
I made bombs and rockets and so forth.
从那里开始，一件事引出了另一件事。
And from there just one thing led to another.
所以当我11岁得到一份送报工作时，我就开始把部分收入花在科学器材上。
So when I got a paper route at age 11, I started putting part of my money into science equipment.
好的，那么作为一个十到十一岁、玩火药的孩子，你有没有因此惹上麻烦？
Okay, now as a 10, 11 year old playing around with gunpowder, did that land you in any sorts of trouble?
嗯，那时候的情况跟现在不一样。
Well, things were different in those days.
你知道，那时候没有任何监管。
You know, there wasn't any kind of regulation.
街角的药剂师很乐意卖给我很多现在会让父母吓坏的东西，而且还加了不错的利润。
And the corner druggist was very happy to sell me lots of things that would terrify parents now at a nice markup.
像浓硫酸、浓硝酸、乙醚这样的东西。
Things like concentrated sulfuric acid and concentrated nitric acid, ether.
我确实想过用乙醚把自己弄晕，看看是什么感觉，但我觉得这主意不好，因为我不知道自己是不是已经过头了。
I actually thought about knocking myself out with ether to see what it was like, but I decided it wasn't a good idea because I wouldn't be able to tell whether I had gone too far or not.
所以我决定放弃这个
So I decided to forget about the
这很可能是个明智的决定。
That, that was probably a smart move.
听起来相当危险。
That sounds, quite dangerous.
那么，埃德，你毕业后做了什么？
So, Ed, what did you do after finishing school?
从那以后，你接下来做了什么？
What was the next move for you from that point?
你是说高中毕业后？
You mean after finishing high school?
是的。
Yes.
那时候大家都穷，经历了大萧条和第二次世界大战，但我通过送报纸和做其他零工，省下了钱来支付部分教育费用。
Well, everybody was poor in those days, and we went through the Depression and World War Two, but I managed to save money for an education, at least for part of an education, by delivering newspapers and doing other odd jobs.
于是我去了加州大学学习化学。
So I went off to the University of California to study chemistry.
随着时间推移，我发现自己对物理更感兴趣，于是转到了物理专业。
And as time passed, I realized I was more interested in physics, so I changed to physics.
当我攻读物理学博士学位到一半时，我已经完成了所有工作，只差论文的最后一部分，这时我意识到要完成它，我必须学习更多数学。
And then finally, when I got halfway through my doctorate in physics, I'd done all the work except the last part of my thesis, I realized I had to learn a lot more mathematics to finish.
于是我去了数学系选课，结果发现，我拿到数学博士学位的时间，可能会比完成物理学博士更快。
So I went to the math department to take the courses and when I got there I found out that I would be able to get a math PhD sooner than finishing my physics PhD.
当时加州大学洛杉矶分校以让研究生滞留十年才毕业而臭名昭著。
UCLA was notorious then for keeping people around for ten years in graduate school before they got out.
所以我只用了两年半就拿到了数学学位，这是一个明智的决定。
So I, in two and a half years, I was out in math and it was a good decision.
好的，从那时起你就成为了一名教授，开始教数学，对吗？
Okay, and from that point you went on to become a professor actually teaching math, is that correct?
是的。
Yeah.
我在麻省理工学院获得了CLA Moore讲师的职位。
Got a position as a CLA Moore instructor at MIT.
那是我的第一份工作。
That was my first position.
这是一个备受追捧的荣誉职位。
That's kind of an honorary sought after position.
全美都有很多人竞争这个职位，每年根据空缺和经费情况，他们会任命一到六人不等。
They have competition all over the country to get that job and they appoint anywhere from one or two to six depending on the year and how much space and money they have.
那是一段很棒的经历。
So that was a great experience.
于是在剑桥的两年里，我在麻省理工学院教书，后来我妻子说：‘不行，我们再也受不了这些顶尖人才了。’
So I spent two years in Cambridge teaching at MIT and then my wife said, No, we can't stand these winners anymore.
至少她做不到，尽管当时还带着个小婴儿。
At least she couldn't, tiny baby and all.
所以我们顺利调到了新墨西哥州立大学，那里刚刚获得了一大笔国家科学基金会的资金。
So we got a really good relocation to New Mexico State, who had just gotten a whole lot of National Science Foundation money.
于是我去了那里，每周可以自由选择六小时的研究生课程，还能挑选他们花钱聘请来的顶尖研究生。
So I went there and I had my pick of graduate courses six hours a week, pick of top graduate students who they were paying to come in.
在那儿待了四年之后，我学到了很多数学知识，后来当加州大学尔湾分校在南加州成立时，我就去了那里。
And so after four years of that, I learned a lot of math and went on to UC Irvine when it opened up out in Southern California.
实际上，我现在住的地方离那儿不远。
And actually, I live not far from there now.
为了让我们更好地理解，你在数学领域的造诣处于什么水平？
And just to put this in perspective for us, where do you kind of sit on the spectrum?
你的数学理解和这个领域的知识非常深厚。
Like, your understanding of math and that field is very advanced.
我记得你年轻时参加过很多竞赛，你当时在这些比赛中表现如何？
I believe you competed in like numerous competitions, maybe more so in your earlier days, but like where did you stack up in those competitions?
当我上高中时，我需要参加比赛来获得奖学金和赚钱。
Well, when I was in high school, I needed to enter competitions to get scholarships and earn money.
所以我参加了南加州化学竞赛，每个高中有一两名顶尖学生参加，我获得了第四名。
So I took All Southern California chemistry contest, which had one or two top students from each high school, and I came in fourth in that.
第二年我参加了物理竞赛，并获得了第一名。
And then I took the physics contest the next year, and I came in first in that.
然后我成为了全国科学人才搜索的决赛选手。
And then I was a finalist for the National Science Talent Search.
全国共有11,000名参赛者，最终有40名获奖者。
There were 40 winners out of 11,000 contestants all over the country.
所以我去了华盛顿特区，并因参加比赛获得了一些奖金。
So I went to Washington DC and got some money for going there.
然后我获得了加州大学伯克利分校的奖学金，当我转到加州大学洛杉矶分校时，这个奖学金继续有效。
And then I got a from UC Berkeley, which continued as a scholarship when I went to UCLA.
把这些奖学金和机会结合起来，大大帮助我完成了原本负担不起的大学教育。
So piecing all these together went a long way toward helping me get through a college that I couldn't otherwise afford.
现在跳过几年，一位数学教授是怎么对二十一点产生兴趣的呢？
Just skipping forward a few years now, how did a mathematics professor become curious about blackjack?
嗯，当我还在上高中的时候，我经常一个人待着。
Well, when I was a kid growing up in high school, I was left on my own a lot.
我父母都在国防工业工作，或者说当时是战争工业。
My parents were working in defense or in that case, war industries.
我母亲上的是下午四点到午夜的轮班，我父亲则在另一家工厂上午夜到早上八点的夜班。
And they had my mother had the swing shift 4PM to midnight, my father had the graveyard shift midnight to 8AM at another industry.
所以我和我哥哥基本上自己照顾自己，成长过程中几乎没有受到什么监督。
And so I and my brother kind of took care of ourselves and grew up without any particular supervision.
这有好处也有坏处。
That was good and bad.
坏处是我没有那些家境更好、上更好高中孩子的那些机会。
It was bad because I didn't have the opportunities that kids with more money and who went to a better high school would have.
但这也教会了我独立思考问题。
But it also taught me to think on my own about things.
因此，当我在后来的生活中遇到各种情况时，我常常会以全新的视角来看待它们。
And so when I came across situations later in life, I often looked at them from a fresh viewpoint.
例如，当我正在加州大学洛杉矶分校完成我的博士学业时，我打算在圣诞节假期和妻子一起去拉斯维加斯好好放松一下。
For example, when I was finishing my PhD at UCLA, I was going to go to Las Vegas to have a nice vacation with my wife over the Christmas holidays.
在出发前，我了解到有一篇发表在统计学期刊上的文章，介绍了一种玩二十一点的方法，虽然不能确保绝对优势，但能让你非常接近优势。
And I learned before I went that there was a way to play blackjack published in a statistics journal that would give you not quite an edge, but you come pretty close.
你的劣势甚至不到1%。
Your disadvantage only was less than 1%.
于是我说：好吧，我对赌博一无所知，但我要冒个险，拿10美元试试看会发生什么。
So I said, well, I don't know anything about gambling, but I'll risk $10 and see what happens.
我还有第二个想去那里的原因，那就是在物理研究过程中，我推测轮盘赌的结果可能是可以预测的，并且我有充分的理由相信它们几乎确实可以预测。
And I was also interested in going there for a second reason, which was that I had figured out in the physics part of my career that roulette wheels might be predictable and I had good reason to think that they almost truly were predictable.
如果你能测量旋转转子和旋转外壁的位置与速度，就能以足够的精度进行预测——虽然不是完美精确，但足以在赌场中获得优势。
If you could measure the position and velocity of the spinning rotor and the position and velocity of the spinning wall, you could predict with enough accuracy, not perfect accuracy, but enough accuracy to actually get an edge in the casino.
因此，我之所以想去拉斯维加斯，除了想以低廉的代价度假、体验一下玩二十一点的乐趣之外，还想亲自观察轮盘赌的转盘，看看它们是否真如我根据图片、传闻和推理所设想的那样。
So one of the reasons I wanted to go to Vegas, besides a cheap vacation have fun playing blackjack just as an experience, was to look at roulette wheels and see whether they were like I thought they were from just pictures and hearsay and so on and reasoning.
果然，它们就是这样。
And sure enough, they were.
于是我开始设计一个隐藏的计算机，一个可以穿戴在身上的设备，来击败轮盘赌。
And I set out to beat roulette by building a hidden computer, a wearable computer on a person's body.
但当我玩二十一点时，我也发现玩的人根本不懂自己在做什么，而庄家也不懂他们自己在做什么。
But when I played blackjack, I also stumbled across the knowledge that the people playing didn't know what they were doing and the people running the game didn't know what they were doing.
他们遗漏了一些非常明显的东西，于是我心想，我也可以赢这个游戏。
And there were certain obvious things that they were missing, and I said, I can beat this game too.
所以那时我决定同时击败这两种游戏。
So I set out to basically beat both of them at that point.
这确实分散了我从事学术事业和数学研究的精力，但还不足以让我完全脱离学术界，只是足够让我感到振奋，给了我另一件了不起的事情去做。
And that was a distraction from an academic career and from mathematics, but not enough of a distraction to take me out of the academic world, just enough to be stimulating and give me something, one more great thing to do.
你第一次去拉斯维加斯时，是怎么玩二十一点和轮盘赌的？
Now that first trip to Las Vegas, how did you go playing blackjack and roulette?
你的意思是，我去哪里观察它们吗？
Well, you mean where did I go to observe them or?
你赢了吗？
Did you do well?
也就是说，你第一次去的时候赚到钱了吗？
Like did you make money that were on that first trip?
哦，这是个好问题。
Oh, that's a good question.
是的。
Yes.
我当时只有10枚银元可以用来赌，就这么多。
Well, I had 10 silver dollars that I was willing to risk and that was it.
所以我玩了大约四十分钟，输掉了10枚银元中的8.5枚，但桌上的其他人都输惨了。
So I played for about forty minutes and I lost eight and a half of my 10 silver dollars, but everybody else at the table was smashed.
起初他们以为我是个怪人，带着一张小策略卡，我确实一直在核对，而且我玩得也很慢，因为我对这一切还不熟悉。
And at first they thought I was some sort of screwball with my little strategy card, which I checked and I was also playing rather slowly because I wasn't used to all this.
一切都是新的。
It was all new.
大约二十分钟后，我抽到了一手非常出色的牌。
And then after about twenty minutes, there was a remarkable hand that I drew.
我按照卡片上的指示抽到了一张七张牌的21点，而我根本没打算抽到七张牌的21点。
I drew a seven card 21 following the instructions on the card, which I had no intention of drawing a seven card 21.
只是因为那些指示引导我放弃了一手不错的牌，继续抽牌，直到最终拿到一副无法击败的牌。
Was just that the instructions led to this, led to me sacrificing a pretty good hand and continuing to draw cards until I ended up with an unbeatable hand.
那一刻，围观的人们对发生的事情感到非常震惊。
And so at that point, the people watching me were kind of electrified at what had happened.
他们以为我是故意这么做的，但其实并不是。
And they thought that I did this on purpose, which is not true.
从他们的反应中，我意识到他们完全摸不着头脑。
And so I realized from their reactions that they didn't have a clue.
这让我回去重新思考这个游戏。
That led me to go back and think about the game.
我很快就在原则上推导出了如何赢得这个游戏的方法。
I very quickly reasoned out in principle how to beat it.
然后，工作就开始了。
And then and then the work began.
好的。
Okay.
所以给我们详细讲讲这个过程吧。
So walk us through that process.
你花了多长时间来研究并找出一套击败赌场二十一点的方法？
How long did you spend trying to work out and come up with a formula for beating the casinos at blackjack?
在1959年期间，我花了相当多的时间试图手动完成这项工作。
Well, I spent a substantial amount of time during the 1959 trying to do it by hand.
当我发现进展甚微时，我意识到竞争太过激烈，我这一生甚至一百生都未必能完成。
And I realized as I made relatively little progress that the competition was so enormous that I was never going to finish in my lifetime, or actually a 100 lifetimes.
那时我得知麻省理工学院有一台IBM 704计算机，作为工作人员，我可以使用它。
At that point, I learned that MIT had an IBM seven zero four computer and as a staff member, I could use it.
于是，我自学了一种叫Fortran II的编程语言，每隔两三天就把一叠打孔卡片放进指定的投递箱，检查我正在编写的程序片段和子程序，这些卡片有时会带着错误返回，我得修正它们，有时则能完美运行。
So I taught myself a programming, something called Fortran II, and entered, left groups of punch cards at a bin every two or three days to check parts of the program that I was writing, subroutines, and they would come back sometimes with errors, which I had to fix, and sometimes they would run perfectly.
当我最终构建完所有子程序并把它们整合在一起时，那大概是1960年初。
When I finally built all my subroutines and put them together, this was probably early nineteen sixty.
因此，在1960年的大部分时间里，我持续让计算机输出结果。
So I continued to turn stuff out from the computer through a large part of 1960.
然后，我获得了所有需要的信息，并意识到自己能够赢这个游戏。
And then I got all the information I needed and I saw I could beat the game.
我还发现了多种实现方法。
And I saw how to do it in multiple ways.
所以我会说，总体上我花了大约一年半时间的一半到三分之二来完成这件事。
So I would say that I spent overall about, oh maybe half or two thirds time for a year and a half.
一旦你制定了这套或这些击败赌场二十一点的公式，我理解得对吗？你实际上把这套公式或策略公之于众了。
And once you'd come up with this formula or these various formulas for beating the casino at blackjack, Correct me if I'm wrong, but you actually went public with that formula or your strategy.
你当时决定公之于众的思考过程是怎样的？
What was your thought process in actually going public with that?
你对这样做有任何疑虑吗？
Did you have any doubts about doing that?
对我来说，这就是一道数学题。
Well, to me, was a math problem.
当时大家都觉得赌场的游戏是不可能赢的。
And people thought that you could not beat casino games.
而且还有很多佐证都支持这个说法。
And there was a lot of evidence to that effect.
事实上，在过去几个世纪里概率论逐步发展的过程中，已经有相关定理被证明了。
There were theorems, in fact, that had been proven as probability developed over several previous centuries.
他们证明了一些定理，指出大多数主流赌博游戏都无法被攻破。
They proved theorems which said that most of the standard gambling games could not be beaten.
无论你如何调整赌注，都会以一个可预测的速率持续亏损。
No matter how you varied your bets, you would lose at a rate that was predictable.
但二十一点并不完全符合他们推导这一结论时所用的前提假设——后来当我开始深入学习概率论本身，以及研究人们试图攻破各类赌博游戏的相关历史时，我察觉到了这一点。
But blackjack didn't quite fit the assumptions that they'd used to draw that conclusion, which I observed later when I began to learn more about probability itself and the history of the attempts to beat gambling games.
二十一点的特殊之处在于，发牌过程中，荷官不会在每一手牌结束后都重新洗牌。
And what was different about blackjack was that as you deal through the cards, they don't reshuffle after every hand.
因此，随着游戏的进行，牌组的组成会不断变化。
So the composition of the deck tends to change as play continues.
随着牌组组成的改变，庄家对玩家不利的赔率以及玩家应如何出牌的策略，也会随之变化。
And with the changing composition of the deck, the odds falling against the player and the way he should play his hands, those things shift also.
因此，当我刚开始思考这个游戏时，很快就意识到这些变化幅度足够大，足以让我在大部分游戏时间内获得显著的优势。
And so what I saw very early when I thought about the game was that the shifts would undoubtedly be large enough to give me a substantial edge during a fairly large part of the time that I was playing.
于是，下一步就显而易见了：如果你能判断出何时拥有优势，就该在有优势时下大注，没有优势时则下小注或离开。
And so then the next step was obvious, if you can tell when you have an edge, you bet big when you have the edge, and you bet little or leave when you don't have an edge.
因此，你会赢得大多数大注手牌，而输掉大多数小注手牌。
So you win most you win a majority of the big hands and you lose the majority of the little hands.
总体而言，你会取得明显的盈利。
And overall, you come out, pretty well ahead.
我可以计算出自己总体上能以多快的速度积累财富。
I could compute how rapidly I could make my banker overall.
那么，在你公开了这种击败赌场二十一点的方法之后，发生了什么？
So what happened after you went public with this formula, this way of beating the casinos at blackjack?
这引起了相当多人的关注吗？
Did that attract the attention of quite a few people?
我曾在美国数学学会做了一次演讲，认为这会是非常有趣的数学内容。
Well, I gave a talk at the American Math Society thinking this would be really interesting mathematics.
所以当我演讲时，摘要委员会以为我又是个送来一堆垃圾的怪人。
And so when I said in my talk, the abstract committee thought this is another crank who is sending in more garbage.
他声称自己能做些我们已经证明不可能做到的事情。
He's claiming he can do something that we've already proven is impossible.
负责筛选会议摘要的数学委员会经常收到这类东西。
And the mathematics committees that screen abstracts for meetings get a lot of this stuff.
数学中有不少著名的问题，或者说著名的结果，最终被证明是无法实现的。
There are quite a few famous math problems that well, are quite a few famous things in mathematics where it was eventually proven that you couldn't do it.
其中之一就是仅用圆规和直尺三等分任意角。
One of them is trisecting an arbitrary angle with compass and straight edge alone.
从古希腊人尝试却未能做到开始，直到有人最终给出数学证明，说明确实存在无法三等分的角，这花了将近两千年。
It took, from the time the Greeks tried to do it and couldn't, it took almost two thousand years before somebody came up with a mathematical proof showing in fact that it was not possible, there were some angles that were not trisectable.
因此，在十七、十八和十九世纪，赌博游戏发展出了一套严密的证明，表明几乎所有的赌博游戏都是无法战胜的。
And so with the gambling games, over the seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries, they developed a rat of tight proof that nearly all of them were not beatable.
所以，我说，这将是一门有趣的数学。
So anyhow, I said, This is going be interesting mathematics.
摘要委员会说，这又是哪个疯子在往这儿寄这种东西。
The abstract committee said, This is some other wing nut who's sending him this stuff.
巧合的是，委员会中有一位来自加州大学洛杉矶分校的人，他认识我当年在那里的时候，他是一位杰出的数论学家，他说：不，不，如果这家伙说他能做到，那他很可能真的能做到。
And just by chance, one of the members of the committee was somebody from UCLA who knew me when I was there and he was an eminent number theorist and he said, No, no, if this guy says he can do it, he probably can.
所以，这个摘要得以保留，并刊登在会议前的简报上，随后媒体也得知了这件事。
So the abstract survived and was published in the little notices that they had before the meeting and then the papers got wind of it.
之后，这件事在印刷媒体上迅速走红。
And after that, it went kind of viral on the print media.
然后，我收到了大量来人，他们要么想了解这个秘密以便发财，要么因为陷入困境急需用钱而想了解秘密，要么想资助我，和我一起去赢钱并分账。
And then I got a flood of people who wanted to either know the secret so they could get rich, know the secret because they were in dire straits and needed the money, or who wanted to bankroll me and go out and share the money.
那就是你如何认识了那个臭名昭著的曼尼·基梅尔。
And that's how you met, the infamous Manny Kimmel.
我真想听听你究竟是怎么认识他的故事。
I'd love to hear the story about how you actually met him.
对于那些不了解的人，请稍微介绍一下这个人物。
And, for those who don't know, describe a little bit about this character.
他到底是谁？
Like, who was he?
很多人来听我的演讲，之后印刷媒体和电视上都出现了大量报道。
Well, many people came to my talk, and afterwards there was a lot of publicity in both print and on television.
然后，开始有人主动提出要为我提供资金支持。
And then I began to get people offering to bankroll me.
有一个非常执着的人一直给我打电话，最后我说：你知道吗，赌场的人根本瞧不起我。
And one very persistent guy kept calling, and finally I said, know, the casinos are scoffing at me.
他们说这全是胡说八道。
They're saying this is all garbage.
他们说会派辆出租车来接我，如果我什么也做不出来，人们就会说，这家伙不过是个吹牛大王，声称自己能做点什么，却根本无法兑现。
They're saying they'll send a cab for me, and if I don't do anything, people are gonna say, well, this guy is just a blowhard who claimed to do something but couldn't back it up.
我觉得我有责任证明我所做的事情确实是正确的，并且是有效的。
And I felt it was obligatory for me to show that what I'd done was actually correct and worked.
所以我最终决定听从曼尼·金布尔的建议，他从纽约开车过来了。
So I finally decided to listen to Manny Kimball, who drove up from New York.
于是我们聊了一阵子，他变得非常兴奋。
And so we talked for a while and he got very excited.
当时我并不知道的是，他不仅是一位富有的商人，拥有纽约市的64个停车场以及其他产业，而且多年后，我从康妮·布鲁克所写的关于斯蒂芬·罗斯的传记《游戏大师》中得知，曼尼·金布尔曾与黑帮二号人物朗吉·祖尔曼有过关联。
It turned out, all I didn't know all is at the time, that not only was he a wealthy businessman who owned 64 parking lots in New York City among other things, but many years later, I discovered from Connie Bruck, who wrote a biography of Stephen Ross called Master of the Game, I discovered that Manny Kimmel had been associated with mobster number two, a guy named Longhi Zuilman.
他是20世纪30年代新泽西州的黑帮之王。
He was the mobster king of New Jersey in the '30s.
所以他最初的财富很可能来自私酒贩卖、卖淫等非法活动。
So he probably made his original money from bootlegging, prostitution and so on.
不管怎样，他当时确实是一位重要的商人，同时也是一位懂行的赌徒。
Be that as it may, he actually was an important businessman at that time as well as a knowledgeable gambler.
他并不是一个受过良好教育的人。
He wasn't an educated man.
他可能连七年级或八年级都没读完。
He probably never got past seventh or eighth grade.
但他经常出入赌场。
But he'd been around the casinos.
在1959年和1960年古巴赌场关闭之前，他已经是那里的老牌人物了。
He'd been a big veteran in Cuba before it got shut down in 'fifty nine and 'sixty.
所以，我向他展示了我能做什么，我们在纽约进行了一些练习，他确认我能够稳定地赢过他的发牌。
So anyhow, I showed him what I could do and we had some practice sessions in New York where he verified that I won pretty steadily against his dealing.
于是，我们去了拉斯维加斯，带了1万美元的赌资。
So anyhow, we went out to Las Vegas and we brought a 10,000 bankroll.
他想带更多钱，但我认为，为了以防万一，还是用对他来说算少一点的金额比较好。
He wanted to bring a lot more, but I figured that I wanted to play with something that was small for him in case things went wrong.
在大约二十小时的认真赌博和二十小时的适应过程中，我们的赌资多赚了一倍多。
And we did a little better than double our bankroll in the, well, twenty hours of serious play and about twenty hours of getting used to it play.
在1万美元本金上赢了1万1千美元，听起来不算多，但其实比你想象的要多，因为当时的钱按通货膨胀调整后，价值大约是现在的八倍。
So $11,000 win on a $10,000 bankroll doesn't sound like a whole lot, but it's a little more than you think because money in that day adjusted for inflation was about eight times what it is now.
所以把它想象成80美元的本金，赢了9万美元。
So think of it as an $80 bankroll and maybe a $90,000 win.
是的，我的意思是，这是一笔相当可观的金额，尤其是在这么短的时间内。
Yeah, I mean that's a significant amount, especially in such a short timeframe.
对。
Yeah.
非常令人印象深刻。
It's very impressive.
你和曼尼的关系维持了多久？
And how long did your relationship last with Manny for?
嗯，我本人更想当个学者而不是赌徒，所以我决定不会花太多时间做这件事。
Well, I wasn't I was more interested in being an academic than a gambler, so what I decided was I wasn't going to spend a lot of time doing this.
如果需要钱，我偶尔会去玩一玩，但这更像是个爱好。
I might go occasionally if I needed money for something, but it was kind of an avocation.
但赌场依然嗤之以鼻，于是我决定写一本书，看看当成千上万的玩家涌进赌场开始算牌时，他们会怎么样。
But casinos continue to scoff, and I decided to write a book about it and see how they fared when thousands or tens of thousands of players came out to the casinos and started counting cards.
当然，这本书成为了《纽约时报》畅销书，成千上万的玩家真的涌入赌场，其中一些人是优秀的算牌手。
And of course, the book became a New York Times bestseller and tens of thousands of players did show up and some of them were good card counters.
于是赌场最终慌了，在1964年4月1日，内华达赌场度假协会发布声明，宣布要更改二十一点的规则。
So the casinos eventually panicked and they, on April Fool's Day nineteen sixty four, they announced from the Nevada Casino Resort Association, there came an announcement that they were changing the rules of blackjack.
他们取消了玩家在加倍下注、分牌等方面的某些选择权。
They were taking away some of the choices people had involving doubling down, para splitting and so forth.
有人问我会发生什么，我说：会发生的是，那些为赌场带来主要收入的普通玩家会对此非常不满，赌场将失去大量生意。
And I was asked what was going to happen and I said, well, what's going to happen is the ordinary players for whom they make all their money are going to be very irritated by this and they're going to lose a lot of business.
所以他们最终不得不让步，恢复原规则，事实也正是如此。
So they're going to have to give in and change back, which is what happened.
因此，当时的策略是采取多种手段混合应对。
And so the tactic then was to do a mixture of things.
那时候，作弊现象非常普遍。
In those days, there was a lot of cheating.
我认为现在这种现象已经不多了。
I don't think there's much now.
至少在那些由大公司运营的赌场里不会这样。
And at least not in the casinos that are run by the big corporations.
他们还会洗牌、禁止玩家入场，并且在识别出这些人后建立黑名单等等。
And they also would shuffle up, they'd bar players, they had a blacklist of people when they identified them and so forth.
因此，玩家与赌场之间的这场较量愈演愈烈，优秀的玩家变得非常擅长伪装自己，并发明了更多新的赢钱技巧等等。
So this kind of battle between players and casinos really heated up and the good players got very clever at disguising themselves, at inventing extra new techniques for winning more money and so forth.
这场较量一直持续至今。
So this battle goes on.
现在仍然有一些优秀的玩家靠这个谋生。
There are good players out there now who still make their living.
他们每年一月都会聚在一起参加黑杰克舞会，庆祝黑杰克生活。
They get together every January at the blackjack ball and kind of celebrate the blackjack life.
这非常有趣。
So this is very interesting.
在那段时间里，你已经找到了一种方法——不是‘差不多’，而是确实找到了一种方法，来击败赌场的套路，但你并不想太过深入地去追求它。
So during this time, you'd kind of worked out a way to well, not kind of, you had worked out a way to beat the casinos at their own game, yet you didn't want to really pursue it too much.
你真的希望继续从事学术工作。
You really wanted to stay doing your academic work.
为什么会这样？
Why was that?
因为我从未专注于赚大钱。
Well, I never had a focus on trying to make a lot of money.
这对我来说并不重要。
It wasn't important to me.
我基本上只是想学习新东西，和我喜欢的人在一起，尤其是那些博学的聪明人。
I basically just wanted to learn things, be around people that I liked, especially smart people who knew a lot.
我觉得学术界正是获得这种体验的地方。
And I figured the academic world was the place to be for that kind of experience.
但我也有不愿随大流、尝试新事物的倾向，还带点冒险精神，这大概源于我的童年经历，比如制造硝化甘油、发射火箭等等。
But I also had this element of not doing things the way everybody else does and trying new things and having a certain amount of adventurousness as well, probably from my childhood, way I grew up, making nitroglycerin, shooting off rockets, and so forth.
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展开剩余字幕（还有 290 条）
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所以给我们讲讲，您还曾击败过哪些其他赌场游戏？
So tell us a little bit about the other games that you were able to beat the casinos at.
我们之前已经对二十一点进行了非常详细的讨论。
So we we spoke about blackjack there quite extensively.
你之前也提到过轮盘赌，还有其他引起你兴趣的东西。
You also mentioned roulette earlier as well as something that had piqued your interest.
那你玩轮盘赌的情况怎么样？
How did you go with roulette?
实际上，轮盘赌是我一生中第一个觉得可以赢的赌场游戏。
Well, roulette actually is the first thing I thought about in my life that was a beatable casino game.
那还是我上高中、学习物理的时候的事了。
It was way back when I was in high school and studying physics.
我意识到，轮盘赌的球就像行星一样绕圈运动，而旋转的转盘其实并没有太大影响。
And what I realized was that the roulette ball orbited kind of like a planet and the spinning rotor didn't really make any difference.
它只是改变了球围绕最终落点区域的相对旋转速率。
It just changed the relative rate in which the ball orbited around whatever pocket it was going to end up in.
所以我主要把它看作一个像行星绕太阳运动那样高度可预测的系统。
So I thought of it mainly as a lot like a system that is so predictable, the motion of the planets around the sun.
我知道存在摩擦，还有许多其他因素，比如定子侧面故意设置的小挡板，球在下落过程中会撞到它们来制造随机性。
And I know there's friction and there are a lot of other elements like little deliberate vein deflectors that are set in the side of the stator, which the ball hits on the way down to make randomness.
所以有一些细微的因素制造了随机性，但整体仍然可以预测。
So there are little things that make randomness in it that still seem predictable.
后来时间过去了，当我获得物理学硕士学位后，有一天下午和人们聊天时，他们声称没有任何赌场游戏是可以赢的。
And then time passed and then when I was after I got my Master's in Physics, was having a chat with people about one afternoon and they were claiming that you couldn't beat any casino game.
我说，我认为 roulette 是可以赢的。
And I said, well I think you can beat roulette.
我坚持认为 roulette 是可以赢的，争论变得相当激烈，于是我决定要证明这一点。
I argued that you could beat roulette and the argument was fairly heated, so I decided that I would prove it.
于是我和另外几个人开始尝试，但其他人很快就放弃了。
So I and a couple of other people set out to do it and the other people dropped away very quickly.
我继续坚持了下去。
I continued.
当我还在麻省理工学院时，我研究了二十一点的策略，我想尽快发表它们，因为在赌博界，有时在数学界，人们会窃取你的想法并声称那是他们的。
And then when I was at MIT and I had worked on my blackjack ideas, I wanted to publish them quickly because one of the things that happens, especially in the gambling world and sometimes in mathematics, People steal your ideas and claim that those ideas are theirs.
为了快速发表，最好的途径是《美国国家科学院院刊》。
So in order to get quick publication, the place to go was the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
他们接受短篇论文，因此你无法在论文中放入大部分你所知道的内容，但至少可以宣布你做了一些工作，并简要描述它。
They took short papers so you couldn't put most of what you knew in the paper, but you could at least make an announcement that you've done something and describe it briefly.
但你必须有一位国家科学院的成员为你提交论文并基本上为你担保。
But you had to have a member of the National Academy send the paper in for you and basically sponsor you.
当时在麻省理工学院数学系的唯一一位是名叫克劳德·香农的人。
And the only one in mathematics at MIT was a fellow named Claude Shannon.
他因发明了所谓的信息论而闻名，信息论是现代计算和现代通信的基础。
He was famous because he invented something called information theory, which is the basis of modern computing and modern communications.
如果没有他，我们今天很可能无法在这里交谈。
We wouldn't be talking here probably if it hadn't been for him.
所以，香农，我找到了他。
So Shklauch Shannon, I looked him up.
他们告诉我，如果运气好的话，我可能只有五分钟时间。
They told me that I would maybe get five minutes if I was lucky.
除非他真的感兴趣，否则他通常不会花时间与人相处。
And he didn't really spend time with people unless he got really interested.
于是我们审阅了我提交给国家科学院的论文草稿，他很喜欢，说：‘看来你已经解决了这个领域所有主要问题，并且提出了所有关键想法，我会帮你提交这篇论文。’
So we went through my proposed paper for the National Academy and he liked it and said, looks like you solved all the main problems in this area and have all the big ideas, so I'll send the paper in.
他们问：‘那你还在研究什么别的东西吗？’
They said, well what else are you working on?
于是我告诉他，我正试图制造一台可穿戴计算机，用来赢取轮盘赌。
So I told him about attempting to build a computer, a wearable computer to beat roulette.
他听了非常兴奋，因为事实上，他本身就是历史上最著名的发明家之一。
And so he got very excited because as it turns out, he was one of the most famous gadgeteers of all time.
他制造过各种各样的装置，比如娱乐机器、迷宫破解机器人，我还能说上好一阵子。
Built lots of different devices, just playing machines, maze solving robots, and I could go on for quite a while here.
于是他变得很兴奋，也想参与进来一起做。
So he got excited and wanted to work on this too.
所以我们决定合作。
So we decided to team up.
接下来的九个月里，我们买了一台标准尺寸的轮盘赌转盘，把它安放在他家地下室，并利用麻省理工学院实验室的一些设备进行精确测量。
We spent the next nine months, we bought a full size roulette wheel, set it up in his basement and used some equipment from the MIT labs to make really accurate measurements.
然后我们设计出了一个小型计算机，这个计算机现在恰好陈列在麻省理工学院博物馆，你可以把它藏在身上，一个人通过大脚趾敲击开关来输入数据，当 roulette 球和中间旋转的转盘转动时，计算机就会接收信号。
And then we figured out how to build a small computer, which is now at the MIT Museum incidentally, that you could hide on your body and one person would see him with a computer and use the big toes to tap switches for inputs as the roulette ball and the spinning rotor in the middle went around.
然后计算机就会告诉你该在轮盘的哪个位置下注。
And then the computer would tell you where to bet on the wheel.
而另一个人——也就是我——坐在轮盘赌桌旁，故意被安排在远离球的地方，根本看不到球的运动。
And the other person, which was me, was sitting at the roulette table, not even able to see the ball sitting at the far end on purpose.
当我听到计算机传来的指令后，就在几个相邻的格子下注。
And when I heard the instructions from the computer then I put money down on a few neighboring pockets.
例如，零、十三、二十三、三十六这几个数字在轮盘上是连在一起的。
For example, zero, thirteen, 23, 36 is the group that hangs together on the wheel.
所以我们下注四到五个相邻的数字，一摞一角硬币很快就会变成一大堆，因为我们竟然拥有44%的优势，这实在是太惊人了。
So we bet on four or five numbers that were neighboring and a pile of dimes would blow up into a whole lot of dimes very quickly because we had, it turned out, a 44% edge, which is really huge.
我的意思是，你几乎从没见过这样的机会。
I mean you almost never come across anything like that.
但当时的设备相当简陋。
But the equipment was fairly crude.
我们有细小的导线从藏在我身上的无线电接收器延伸到耳道内，那里有一个微型扬声器，我就是通过它听到下注指令的。
We had little wires that ran up from the radio receiver hidden on my body up into my ear canal where there was a tiny loud speaker and that's where I heard the instruction as to where to bet.
这些导线非常脆弱，细如人类耳道，很容易断裂。
And those wires were very fragile, the size of a human ear, they would break quite easily.
铜线在这么细的情况下几乎一碰就碎。
Copper just almost falls apart when it's that size.
我们试过钢丝，但依然太脆弱。
We had steel wires and they were still too fragile.
所以我不得不定期回去重新布线。
So I'd have to go back and get rewired periodically.
后来我开始思考这个问题。
And then I thought about it.
我想，如果他们在球转动后禁止下注，那我们就无法预测了。
I said, You know, if they forbid us to bet after the ball is spun, then we can't predict.
我们需要利用球的运动来做出预测。
We need to use the motion of the ball to make the prediction.
而且，通常他们会允许你下注到几乎最后一刻，因为他们希望给人们尽可能多的时间，同时也希望在一小时内增加更多的旋转次数。
And characteristically, they let you bet until almost the end because they want to give people as much time as possible and they want also to have more spins in a given hour.
总之，我仔细想了想。
Anyhow, so I thought about it.
我说，如果我们不够聪明，这事儿根本行不通。
I said, this is not going to go unless we're really clever.
我们花了大量时间伪装自己，我想，也花了大量时间误导赌场。
We spend a lot of time disguising ourselves and a lot of time, I guess, misdirecting the casino.
所以他们以为我们根本不是真正的我们。
So they think we're other than the kind of people we really are.
二十一点玩家在这方面很在行。
Blackjack players got good at this.
会有一个大玩家带着巨额资金在各个赌桌间游荡，身边还有一位美丽的伴侣挽着他的手臂，这在一段时间内是个相当不错的伪装和误导手段。
There'd be a big player that had huge amounts of money wandering around from table to table with a beautiful companion his or her arm and that was a pretty good disguise for a while, a pretty good misdirection.
总之，我不想一辈子都做这种事。
Anyhow, didn't want to spend my life doing that sort of thing.
所以我说，你知道，这挺有意思的。
So I said, you know, this is fun.
它成功了。
It worked.
这是个好主意。
It's a good idea.
顺便说一下，其他人拿去做了，赚了很多钱。
Other people, by the way, took it and made lots of money.
但我更愿意继续我的学术生涯。
But I'd rather continue with my academic life.
所以我决定这么做，直到有一天我又一次被拉回了真实金钱和真实行动的世界。
So I decided to do that until I got deflected one more time into the world of real money and real action.
所以在我们进入你的交易事业之前，我得问一下，你之前提到过，你知道有些人被赌场列入黑名单之类的事情。
So just before we get into your trading your trading venture, I've gotta ask, like, you mentioned a little earlier that, you know, you knew of people who had been blacklisted from casinos and that sort of thing.
那你当时有没有和赌场老板或安保人员发生过冲突？
Did you have any run ins with casino owners and security during that time?
我猜，你肯定在某种程度上成了别人的目标。
I imagine, you know, you probably had a target on your back to some extent.
就像我在电影《赌城风云》里看到的那样，他们对付算牌者可一点都不温柔。
Like, I've I've seen what they do to card counters in the movie Casino, and it's not pretty.
电影《赌城风云》是我在玩牌之后的十月才拍的，那本书和那部电影都是如此。
Well, the movie Casino was written about October after I played, and the book and the movie.
我玩牌的时候，情况比电影里展现的还要糟糕得多。
And things were worse when I played than they were in the movie Casino to give you the way things were going.
所以五十年代简直糟透了。
So the fifties were terrible.
像芒西·西格尔这样的人被枪杀了。
People like Muncie Siegel got shot up.
埃尔兰乔赌场在一场争斗中被烧毁了，诸如此类的事情时有发生。
El Rancho Vegas got burned down in a dispute and so forth.
到了六十年代，人们开始被殴打。
In the 60s, people were getting beat up.
据我所知，有一个人差点被谋杀，另一个人被杀了；到了70年代，情况就像电影《赌场》那样；而到了80年代，情况好转了，因为大公司开始进入，人们也开始合法经营。
One person was almost murdered that I know about, another person was murdered, and then in the 70s it was like the movie Casino, and in the 80s it was better because the corporations were coming in and people were going legit.
他们意识到朝这个方向发展有一些好处。
They realized there were certain benefits to going in that direction.
在某些方面，这种生活比黑帮生活更好。
Life in some ways was better than mob life.
所以，是的，当时风险很大，我最初并没有意识到，但随着时间推移，我逐渐明白了。
So yes, there was a lot of risk and I didn't realize that initially, but as time passed, it began to become clear to me.
书中有一个情节讲的是我发现的另一件事：如何在玩百家乐时利用旁注获利——这种游戏正是詹姆斯·邦德在《皇家赌场》第一部电影中玩的游戏。
One of the episodes in the book is about another thing that I discovered, how to beat the side bets when they were there in a game called baccarat, the game that James Bond originally plays in Casino Royale, the first version of the movie.
这是世界上赌注最高或最高的游戏之一。
And it's one of the highest or the highest stake game in the world.
人们通常每手都下注两千到一万美元。
People were betting just routinely 2 to $10,000 a hand.
而旁注，我们可以下注五到一百美元。
And the side bets, we could bet five to a hundred.
我找到了一种系统性地赢他们的方法。
And I figured out a way to beat them systematically.
于是我们夜复一夜地去玩，直到他们终于在我的饮料里下药，并禁止我们再继续赌博。
And so we came and did that night after night after night until finally they drug my drinks and barred us from playing anymore.
在回家的路上，我开的车发生了一件奇怪的事。
And on the way home, a strange thing happened to the car I was driving.
当我在亚利桑那州下坡时，油门卡在了全开位置，无论我怎么踩刹车都停不下来，最后车速达到了每小时80英里。
The accelerator locked to the floor when I was coming downhill in Arizona and nothing I could do with the brake seemed to be able to stop it, so I finally got to 80 miles an hour.
我拉了手刹、踩了脚刹，挂入低挡，关掉引擎，还利用发动机的阻力来减速。
I put on the hand brake, the foot brake, put it in a low gear, turned the engine off and used the drag of the motor also.
最终我成功把车停了下来，随后有人过来检查车子，说他从没见过像这样的油门踏板连接故障。
Was finally able to bring it to a stop and then somebody came by and looked at the car and said I've never seen anything like what's going on here with the connection to the accelerator pedal.
那个人修好了车，但他的看法是，这辆车被人故意动过手脚。
So the person was able to fix it but their opinion was that it had been tampered with us.
有人懂机械，而我却不懂。
Somebody who knew mechanics and I did not.
然后我们继续踏上回家的路，气氛有些紧张。
And then we resumed our trip home somewhat adjacent.
于是他们认真起来了。
So they got serious.
是的。
Yeah.
这真的挺严重的。
That's really heavy.
在你为杰克·施瓦格的《对冲基金市场奇才》一书所做的采访中，你提到后来发现一些赌场老板实际上在密谋除掉你。
And in your interview with Jack Schwager for his book Hedge Fund Market Wizards, you mentioned that you later discovered that some of the casino owners were actually plotting to take you out.
这背后有什么故事？
What's the story there?
当他们改变二十一点的规则时，曾有过一场激烈的讨论，但直到三十年后，其中一位在场人士写下来并发表在一家拉斯维加斯的报纸上，这件事才公之于众。
When they changed the rules in blackjack, there was a big discussion, which only came out publicly about thirty years later when one of the one of the people there wrote it up and published it in one of the Las Vegas newspapers.
当时大家激烈讨论该如何应对我和那些计牌者。
There was a big discussion about how to deal with me and the cow counters.
于是，其中一个提议是打断膝盖或耳朵。
And so one of the proposals was to break knees or auris.
人们解释说，这并不是个好主意。
People explained that that wouldn't be a good idea.
他们需要降低暴力程度，采取其他方式，于是改了规则。
They needed to tone it down and do something else, so they changed the rules instead.
但这次会议出席的人背景相当复杂。
But there was quite a mix of people at this meeting.
这是内华达州赌场、内华达州度假酒店协会的会议，正是在那里他们决定修改规则。
This was the Nevada Casino, the Nevada Resort Hotel Association meeting where they decided to change the rules.
所以，修改规则对他们来说是个明智的决定。
So that was a good changing the rules was a good decision on their part.
虽然效果并不显著，但比他们可能想到的其他办法要好。
It wasn't effective, but it was better than what they might have come up with.
跟我们说说你是怎么进入金融市场的吧。
So tell us about how you got into financial markets.
这又是怎么发生的呢？
How did that come about?
嗯，我靠赌博和卖书赚了一些钱，然后开始投资。
Well, I'd made some money gambling and from book sales, and I started to invest it.
但我做得并不好。
And I didn't do very well.
当我表现不佳时，我会坐下来思考：我是不是根本不该做这件事，还是应该改变方式，把它做到极致。
And when I don't do very well, I sit down and decide whether I should be doing whatever it is at all or whether I'm going to change and do it very well.
于是我决定学习我能学到的关于投资的一切。
So I decided that I would learn what I could about investing.
1964年整个夏天，我都在阅读投资类书籍。
I spent the 1964, all summer just reading books on investment.
然后我在1965年又决定再做一次同样的事情。
And then I decided to do the same thing again in the 1965.
就在那个夏天刚开始的时候，我偶然发现了一份小册子，讲的是一种叫认股权证的东西，它类似于看涨期权，是由公司发行的。
And at the very beginning of the summer, I happened to come across a little pamphlet on something called a warrant, which is like a call option, telling me it's issued by a company.
那时候，这些工具不在交易所交易。
And in those days, it wasn't on an exchange.
它们是在场外交易的。
It was traded over the counter.
因此，买卖这些东西非常麻烦，因为你得跟那些非常贪婪、买卖价差巨大的人打交道。
And so it was a real pain to try to trade these things because you had to deal with people that were really greedy and had huge bid ask spreads.
无论如何，我很快就意识到，大多数认股权证行为的不确定性是可以用数学方法建模的。
In any case, I saw almost immediately that you could mathematicize most of the uncertainty in how a warrant behaves.
影响它的主要因素是底层股票的价格。
The main thing that affected it was the price of the underlying stock.
于是，我发现如果我卖出认股权证的同时买入股票，或者反过来操作，就能消除股票风险。
So then I saw an x that if I were to hedge shorter warrant and buy the stock or the other way around, I could get rid of the stock risk.
那还剩下什么？
So what did that leave?
剩下的就是定价偏差风险。
That left mispricing risk.
如果我能判断权证是相对高估还是相对低估，那它就不再是风险了。
Well, it's no longer risk if I can tell whether the warrant is relatively overpriced or relatively underpriced.
如果权证相对高估，我可以做空它并买入股票，因为权证和股票往往同步变动，从而消除股票风险。
If it's relatively overpriced, I can sell it short and buy the stock, get rid of the stock risk because the warrant and the stock tend to move together.
如果权证相对低估，也就是价格便宜，我可以买入权证，同时卖空对应的股票，从而消除大部分风险。
If the warrant is relatively underpriced, if it's cheap, I can buy the warrant, short the stock against it and get rid of most of the risk.
如果股票价格波动，我可以调整权证与股票之间的比例。
And if the stock moves around and changes its price, I can change the mix of the warrant against the stock.
于是我意识到，这几乎肯定可以通过数学方法解决。
So I realized that this was something that I could almost certainly solve mathematically.
于是我开始着手解决这个问题。
And so I set out to do that.
当时我正好在1965年新成立的加州大学尔湾分校搬迁。
And I happened to be moving to the new UC Irvine campus when it opened in the 1965.
我在那里向某人讲述了这个想法。
And I was telling somebody there about this idea.
我说，等等，我们这边还有别人也在做同样的事情。
And I said, wait a minute, we've got somebody else coming in who is doing the same thing.
结果发现是一位名叫谢恩·霍苏夫的经济学家。
And it turned to be an economist named Sheen Khosuf.
于是我们意识到，我们做的其实是类似的事情，只是他已经用真金白银做了两三年，并写了一篇关于权证定价的论文。
So we realized that we were doing the same sort of thing, only he had been doing it for real, with real money, for two or three years and he'd written a thesis about trying to price warrants.
于是我便说，如果我们把两个人的智慧结合起来，一定能做得更好。
So I said, well, if we put our two heads together, we can do better yet.
于是我们开始定期会面，我带来了大量的数学工具，我们一起完善了对权证和权证对冲的分析，并合著了一本书，名为《战胜市场》。
So we started meeting and I brought a lot of math to the table and we evolved our analysis of warrants and warrant hedging and we wrote a book called Beat the Market.
这本书激励了很多人。
That book inspired quite a few people.
就在一周前，我和诺贝尔奖得主哈里·马科维茨共进午餐，他告诉我，他因为读了《战胜市场》，花了三年时间共同管理一家纽约的投资业务。
I was having lunch with Nobel Prize winner Harry Markowitz a week or so ago and he was telling me that he spent three years co managing an operation, an investment operation in New York because he read Beat the Market.
他想深入研究这些想法，并付诸实践。
He wanted to follow-up on those same ideas and do that sort of thing.
然后他决定更愿意成为一名学者，而不是被卷入市场、金融和交易等领域。
And then he decided that he'd rather be an academic than get deflected off into the marketplace and financials and trading and so on.
接着，两位学者费舍尔·布莱克和迈伦·斯科尔斯，正是在这一领域取得了突破。
And then two academics, Fisher Black and Myron Scholes, were where it beat the market.
这让他们意识到，如果以极小的幅度不断调整，理论上可以使对冲完全无风险。
And that got them to thinking about the fact that you could make the hedge riskless in principle if you adjusted it like in very small increments.
如果能做到这一点，就能算出股票和认股权证在不确定收益情况下的合理折现率。
So if you could do that, then you could figure out what the right discount was for the stock and for the warrant to uncertain payoffs.
从而也能确定认股权证的合理价格。
And you could figure out what the right price was for the warrant.
于是他们就此展开了研究并完成了这项工作。
So they went ahead and did that.
巧合的是，在他们之前，我就曾推测过，由于认股权证对冲本质上是无风险的，我们不妨从风险中立者的角度来分析。
I had coincidentally, sometime before they did that, guessed that because the warrant hedge is essentially riskless that we might as well look at it from the standpoint of a person who is risk neutral.
如果我们这么做，就能得到布莱克-斯科尔斯公式。
If we did that, then we get the Black Scholes formula.
所以当我1973年拿到他们的论文时，那篇论文说：是的，我们的部分灵感来自你的想法，并且击败了市场。
So when I got their paper in 1973, a paper which said, Yes, we were inspired in part by your idea and beat the market.
当我拿到那篇论文时，我已经有了这个公式。
When I got that paper, I already had the formula.
我早已使用它四年了，因为我通过合理的推理已经推导出这个公式应该是什么样子。
I'd already been using it for four years because I had figured out with plausible reasoning what the formula must be.
果然，当我用不同的符号核对我的结果和他们的结果时，发现两者完全一致。
And sure enough, when I checked what I had with different notation against what they had, they were the same.
所以他们的论文发表时间恰好与芝加哥期权交易所开张时间相近，而该交易所开张的原因之一，正是因为他们证明了可以为认股权证定价，这个公式使得期权（我该说期权）比以往那种仅限特定人士参与的交易显得更加合法。
So their paper came about the same time as the Chicago Board Options Exchange opened and it was one of the reasons that exchange opened is because they had shown that you could price warrants, the formula for it, and so that made warrants somehow, well options I should say, more legitimate than this by appointment only kind of trading that existed before.
你知道，你从赌场博弈起步，现在进入了金融市场。
You know, you've come from playing the games in the casinos, you've come into financial markets now.
对你来说，像你刚才描述的那样找到优势更容易了吗？
Was it easier for you to find an edge like you've just described here?
在金融市场中找到这种优势，比在赌场玩游戏时更容易吗？
Was it easier for you to find that edge in financial markets than it was to find an edge playing games at the casino?
我不知道是更容易还是更难。
I don't know if it was easier or harder.
大概差不多。
Probably about the same.
对。
Right.
当我提到优势时，这是我非常想问你的一个问题，我在播客里问过几次，但我特别想听听你如何描述这一点。
And as I bring up edge, this is a question I'm really keen to ask you and I've asked it a few times on the podcast but I'm particularly interested to hear how you describe this.
你会如何描述优势？
How would you describe an edge?
当我们谈论优势时，这到底意味着什么？
Like when we talk about an edge, what exactly does that mean?
依我看来，如果你在玩赌博游戏，那赌博游戏是最简单的。
Well, the way I see it, if you're playing a gambling game, that's the ease the gambling game is the easiest.
顺便说一句，理解像二十一点这样的赌博游戏，是进入投资领域最好的训练方式之一。
And by the way, understanding gambling games like blackjack and some of the others is one of the best possible training grounds for getting into the investment world.
你学会如何管理资金，如何计算赔率，以及如何在拥有优势时做出决策。
You learn how to manage money, you learn how to compute odds, you learn how to reason what what to do when you have an advantage.
那么，我所说的优势或边缘指的是什么？
So what do I mean by an advantage or an edge?
在赌博游戏中，它指的是你对对手的优势，意味着如果你长期与对手玩这个游戏，最终你会以某种相当可预测的速率赢钱。
In a gambling game, it's an advantage or edge over your opponent, meaning that if you were to continue to play the game for a long period of time against your opponent, you would in the end win money at what might be a fairly predictable rate.
例如，在玩二十一点时，如果我有一半时间拥有2%的优势，而赌场在另一半时间拥有2%的优势，看起来我并没有任何优势。
For instance, playing blackjack, if I have a 2% edge half the time and the casino has a 2% edge half the time, it looks like I don't have any advantage.
但如果我在拥有2%优势时下更大的注，而在对方拥有2%优势时下更小的注，那么长期来看，我会赢下大约2%的大注金额。
But if I bet considerably more while I have the 2% edge and considerably less when they have the 2% edge, then in the long run, I'll tend to win 2% of my big bets.
我会赚取大注金额的2%，同时输掉小注金额的2%。
I'll tend to make 2% of the amount of my big bets and I'll tend to lose 2% of the amount of my little bets.
所以我的优势或边缘就是这两个数字之间的差值。
So my edge or my advantage is the difference between those two numbers.
在赌博游戏中，你通常（但并非总是）能够计算出自己的优势或边缘。
In a gambling game, you can often but not always calculate what your advantage or edge is.
数学家将这种优势称为数学期望，通常是指在长期或特定情况下，如果你重复多次该情境，你预期赢得的金额除以你投入的金额。
Mathematicians call this edge the mathematical expectation, and it's typically what you would win in the long run or in a specific situation either if that situation were repeated many times, what you would win divided by how much you put up.
我把你们投入的总金额称为注码量。
I call what you put the total that you put up the action.
如果我下了一千笔一百美元的赌注，那就是十万美金的注码量。
So if I make a thousand $100 bets, that's a $100,000 worth of action.
如果我有2%的优势，我预期能赚取十万美金的2%左右。
If I have a 2% edge, I expect to make 2% of a $100,000 plus or minus.
这些是赌博游戏。
Those are gambling games.
在证券市场中，情况更复杂，因为你无法精确计算出收益和概率。
In the securities markets, it's harder because you don't you're not able to calculate precisely what the payoffs are and what their probabilities are.
你或许知道收益是多少，但可能不知道概率。
You might know what the payoffs are, but you may not know the probabilities.
你几乎不可能同时知道这两者。
You're unlikely to know both.
例如，如果我购买一个便宜的期权，比如一个便宜的看涨期权，我知道股票未来会在某个区间内波动，并且会遵循某种我能够假设的、与实际情况较为接近的概率分布。
For instance, if I were to buy a cheap option, cheap call option, I know the stock is going to be somewhere or other in the future and it'll follow some likely distribution that I can hypothesize that's fairly close to what's going to happen.
但我并不确切知道会发生什么。
But I don't know exactly what's going to happen.
这种分布只是基于过去经验的一种估算。
This distribution is just an estimate based on past experience.
如果我多次进行这样的预测，实际分布可能会与我的预测略有不同。
And the distribution might turn out to be somewhat different than what I forecast if I do it many times.
我在证券市场中的做法是，尝试思考某些情况可能有多好或有多糟，与我最可能的预测相比。
What I do in the securities markets is I try to think through how good or how bad some something might be compared with my most probable estimate.
如果即使最糟糕的情况看起来也不错，那我就知道这值得参与。
And if it looks if even the bad situation looks good, then I know I've got something worth playing on.
现在你提到了资金管理，也就是理财。
And now you brought up managing your bankroll, you know, money management.
而这一点正是赌博作为一位严师的地方。
Well, that is the thing where gambling is a master teacher.
因为当赔率可以计算时，比如在二十一点中，就存在一个数学解，可以确定在任何特定情况下下注多少。
Because when the odds are computable, like in blackjack, there's a solution, a mathematical solution to how much to bet on any given situation.
如果你只在有利的情况下下注，那么解决方案是：下注金额大致等于你的预期优势除以下注结果的不确定性，也就是其标准差。
And if you're only betting in favorable situations, then the solution is that you bet an amount, roughly speaking, equal to your expected edge or advantage divided by the amount of uncertainty there is in the bat, the standard deviation of it.
这只是一个对你下注金额的粗略估计。
That's a rough estimate of what you bet.
还有一种精确的计算方法，可以利用对数和概率论等工具，为所有这些情况得出准确的下注金额。
There's an exact estimate which you can compute using logarithms and probability theory and so on for all these situations.
我和另外两个人共同编辑并撰写了一本名为《凯利准则》的书。
I and two other guys have co edited and written part of a book called The Kelly Criterion.
这是一本关于如何在几乎任何你能想到的情境中应用凯利准则的专著。
So it's a treatise on how to apply this Kelly Criterion in almost any situation you could think of.
凯利准则的作用是，如果你应用它，就能最大化你资金的增长期望值。
And what the Kelly Criterion does is if you apply it, it maximizes the expected growth you're going to get in your bankroll.
因此，使用这种方法的人在一段时间后，很可能比那些采用明显不同策略的人拥有更多的资金。
So a guy using this is likely after a period of time to have more money than somebody who just does something significantly different.
所以无论如何，二十一点是绝佳的训练场，因为你能进行大量下注，很快就能进入长期视角。
So anyhow, blackjack's a perfect training ground for that because you get a lot of bets and so you get into the long one very quickly.
我的意思是，你每小时玩一百手，一百个小时下来，你就玩了十万手。
I mean, you're playing a 100 hands an hour, in a hundred hours you're playing, you've played 10,000 hands.
所以我会在节目笔记中附上你提到的那本你合著的《凯利准则》书籍。
So what I'll do is I'll link to the Kelly Criterion book that you mentioned there which you co authored.
如果听众想了解更多相关内容，可以去查看这本书。
I'll link to that in the show notes, if anyone listening wants to find out more about that.
但既然你提到了这个，你能不能简单解释一下什么是凯利准则？
But just while we're we're just while as you bring this up, would you mind just explaining what is Kelly Criterion just a little more?
最好用简单易懂的方式说明一下。
Just probably in simple terms, if possible.
当然可以。
Sure.
好的。
Okay.
假设我有一个无限富有的对手，比如科赫兄弟中的一个。
Suppose that I have an infinitely rich adversary, and one of the Koch brothers maybe.
他们说：来吧，带上你的资金。
And they say, look, bring your bankroll.
我们来抛硬币。
We're gonna flip a coin.
这枚硬币对你有利，优势为2%。
This coin is in your favor by 2%.
你可以下注任意多或任意少的金额。
That is much or little as you want.
如果你输光了钱，你就出局了。
You lose your money, you're gone.
我该下注多少？
How much do I bet?
根据凯利准则，如果你进行计算，会发现对于抛硬币这种情况（其他情况则不同），你应该下注你资金的2%。
Well, the Kelly criterion, if you go through the calculation says, with a coin toss, it's different for other things, bet 2% of your bankroll.
所以，当你本金还很小时，如果你下注本金的2%，而你的优势是2%，那么平均每次下注你的本金大约会增长四个基点，增长幅度并不大。
And so at first when your bankroll is small, if you bet 2% of your bankroll and your edge is 2% of that, you're basically expanding your bankroll by four basis points on average per bet, not much.
但随着本金的增长，增长速度会变得越来越快。
But as your bankroll grows, the expansion gets faster and faster and faster.
那么，为什么这在直觉上是合理的呢？
Okay, so why is this intuitively sensible?
假设你不是下注本金的2%，而是选择下注最少的金额，比如一美元。
Well, suppose instead of betting 2% of your bankroll, you decided to bet as little as you could, a dollar let's say.
整天只下注一美元，即使有2%的优势，你也赚不了多少钱。
Well, betting a dollar all day long with a 2% edge, you're not going to make a whole lot of money.
假设你选择追求数学家所说的‘最大期望回报’。
Suppose instead you decided to go for what mathematicians call maximum expected return.
那你就会押上全部本金，单次翻转的期望收益是本金的2%，远高于本金的2%的2%。
Well, you bet the whole bankroll, your expected win is 2% of your bankroll on that one flip, way more than 2% of 2% of your bankroll.
然而，如果你每次都押上全部本金，你不可能每次都赢。
However, you're not going to win all the time if you keep that in your whole bankroll.
最终你会输光，然后一无所有。
Eventually you're going to lose and then you'll end up with nothing.
所以，如果有很多人这么做，总会有一个人最终赢得巨额资金，而其他所有人都会输得精光。
So the guy who gets this whole bankroll, if you have a whole lot of people doing that, one guy may end up with a gigantic amount of money, and all the other guys will be wiped out.
但如果他继续下去，这个幸运儿最终也会输光。
And the one guy will be wiped out too if he keeps going.
因此，结论是，即使很多人同时这样操作，整体上能赚更多钱，但押上全部本金仍然风险过高。
So the upshot is that it's too risky to bet your whole bankroll even though if many, many people were all doing it at once, the group would win more money that way.
所以，凯利准则是在过于保守（赚得很少）和过于激进（几乎肯定会被清零）之间的一种折中方案。
So anyhow, the Kelly Criterion is a compromise between timid betting where you make very little and way over aggressive betting where you're almost sure to be wiped out.
事实证明，从数学上可以证明，对于打算长期投注的人来说，这是最优的折中方案。
And it turns out you can show mathematically that it's the optimal compromise for somebody who's going to play for a long time.
现在批评者会说，是的，但并不是每个人都想长期投注。
Now critics say, yeah, but you know, not everybody wants to play for a long time.
答案是，那你就可能不想使用凯利准则，而选择其他方法。
The answer is well, then you may not want to use a Kelly Criterion, use something else.
使用你觉得最适合你情况的任何方法。
Use whatever it is that you think is optimal for your situation.
这只是一种为那些一生中会进行大量投注的人设计的策略。
It's just a recipe for people who are going to make a lot of bets over a lifetime.
早期我的情况就是这样，所以我一直这么做的。
Early on that was my situation so that's what I've done.
是的。
Yeah.
是的，正如我所说，我会在节目笔记中链接到你提到的关于凯利准则的那本书，我可能还会找一些。
Yeah, like I said, what I'll do is I'll link to the book you mentioned about Kelly Criterion in the show notes, and I might also dig up.
我知道有几篇文章详细阐述了这种资金管理方式的实际公式。
I know there's a couple articles that flesh out the actual formula for, this way of of managing money.
所以我会在 chatwithtraders.com 的节目笔记中提供这些链接。
So I'll include links to those in the show notes at chatwithtraders.com.
既然我们正好谈到优势这个话题，我想这些建议对一些新手交易者来说是通用的。
While we are sort of on the subject of edge here, I guess this is sort of just general advice and suggestions for some newer traders.
你会如何鼓励新手交易者思考如何获得超越市场的优势，让赔率站在自己这边？
How would you encourage newer traders to think about gaining an edge over the market, like putting the odds in their favor?
在我看来，赚钱有两个部分。
Well, there are two parts to making money as far as I can see it.
一个是找到一个你有优势的好局面，另一个是管理你的资金。
One is finding a good situation where you have an edge and the other is managing your money.
凯利准则及其类似方法，主要解决资金管理的问题。
Kelly criteria and things like it, take care of managing your money.
但比使用凯利准则并计算下注金额更难的，是首先找到具有优势的交易机会。
But harder, harder than using the Kelly Criterion and figuring out how much to bet is finding the advantage situation in the first place.
而这种优势会随着时间变化，也因人而异。
And that changes from time to time and from ability to ability.
每个人都有自己擅长的领域。
Have different knacks for doing things.
像沃伦·巴菲特这样的人，一生都在选股、跟踪公司、熟记资产负债表，并在偶尔出现低价机会时抓住它。
Are guys like Warren Buffett who spend their whole life picking stocks and keeping track of companies and knowing balance sheets in their head and looking for bargains when they occasionally come by.
有些人则是高频交易员。
There are people who, at the other end, were high frequency traders.
他们使用计算机算法，直接连接到交易所，能够比其他人更早看到订单。
They had computer algorithms, and they're wired into the exchanges and they have they get to look at orders before other people.
这完全是另一种游戏。
That's a different game entirely.
所以有这么多不同的游戏。
So there's so many different games.
因此，你必须找到一种适合自己的、有效的方法。
So what you have to do is go find one that works and that suits you.
但我真的无法告诉你哪些游戏适合你，甚至无法告诉你市场上很多游戏的具体情况。
But I can't really tell you which games would work for you or even very many of the games that are out there.
是的。
Yeah.
这确实是一个非常公正的评论。
Now that's a that's a really fair comment.
抛开交易和赌博不说，我想最后问你一个问题。
Putting, you know, trading and gambling aside, I'd like to ask you just this one last question.
你知道，一个已经赚到巨额财富、人生非常成功的人，你会如何鼓励别人思考金钱、财富和成功呢？
You know, someone who has made a great fortune and done very well in life, how do you encourage others to think about money, wealth and success?
我认为，如果你追求的是金钱或成功，那你看待事物的方式就错了。
I think that if your pursuit is money or your pursuit is success, you're looking at things the wrong way.
我认为人们应该去做他们喜欢、热爱的事情，最好是他们擅长的事情。
I think people should be doing what they enjoy and what they love and hopefully things that something they're good at.
如果他们这么做，我认为他们很可能会在过程中获得金钱和成功。
And if they do that, I think they're very likely to get money and success along the way.
我认识一位女士写了一本书，叫《做你热爱的事，财富自然会来》。
A lady I know wrote a book called Do What You Love and the Money Will Follow.
我觉得这个观点差不多是对的。
I think that's, not far off.
说到书籍，你刚刚推出了你的最新著作《一个面向所有市场的男人》。
And speaking of books, you've just released your latest book, A Man For All Markets.
正如我们之前提到的，你过去写过不少书。
You know, as we've mentioned, you've written a number of books in the past.
这本书有什么不同之处？读者阅读这本书又能期待得到什么？
How is this one different, and what can readers expect from also reading this?
《对所有市场的男人》这本书实际上将于1月24日在美国上市，英国的时间也差不多，而在中国、韩国、日本和德国则会稍晚一些。
Well, A Man For All Markets, which will be coming out January 24 actually in The US and probably about the same time in The UK, a little bit later in China, Korea, Japan, and Germany too.
这是一本回忆录。
It is a memoir.
它也讲述了我是如何开始人生旅程，如何涉足二十一点、轮盘赌和股票市场的。
It's also the story of how I got started in life, how I got into things like blackjack, roulette, and the stock market.
以及我在过程中学到的东西，我发现的不同盈利方式，比如对冲基金、统计套利，还有给投资者的建议，如果你一无所知该怎么做。
And then what I learned along the way, different profit centers that I found, hedge fund, statistical arbitrage, advice to people about investing, what to do if you don't know anything.
即使你什么都不做，也依然有可能击败90%的投资者。
You can still beat 90% of investors without doing any work.
如果你想做得更好，又需要付出什么代价。
What to do if you want to try to do better than that and what it's going to take.
然后是一些关于生活中真正重要事物的总体思考。
And then some general thoughts about what is really important in life.
我发现很多人并不明白这一点。
And I find that a lot of people don't get it.
我认识一位亿万富翁，他正在离婚，因为他就是停不下来工作。
One person I know who's a billionaire is getting divorced because he just won't stop working.
他有一位非常好的妻子，两人已经相伴了几十年，但我想她最终说：天啊，我正在变老，是时候享受我们赚来的所有财富了，但人们就是会上瘾，停不下来。
He's got a wonderful wife, they've got along for several decades, but I think she finally said, gee, I'm growing old and it's it's time to enjoy all this money we've made, but people just get hooked and it won't stop.
如果你们永远觉得不够，那我也没法给你们任何建议，因为你们只会被驱使着不断积累、积累、再积累。
And I would say if you can never have enough, then I can't can't give you any advice because you're just gonna be driven to pile up more and more and more.
到最后，你们只会问：这一切到底是为了什么？
And at the end, you'll end up saying, what was it all for?
你们将无法回答。
You won't have an answer.
我说，去享受你所爱的人，去陪伴那些值得陪伴的人，别把所有时间都花在拼命积累财富上。
I say enjoy the people that you love and the people that are worth being with and don't spend all your time just trying to pile up wealth.
明智的建议。
Sound advice.
非常明智的建议。
Very sound advice.
各位听众，如果你们想购买埃德的书并仔细阅读，可以访问 chat.withtraders.com/thorp，它会直接带你到亚马逊上的《通向一切市场的男人》。
And guys listening, if you want to grab a copy of Ed's book and just take a closer look at it, chat with traders.com/thorp,thorp, will take you directly to A Man For All Markets on Amazon.
所以，埃德，我只想说，这真是一次莫大的荣幸。
So, Ed, I just wanna say what an honor this has been.
非常感谢你抽出时间。
I'm very grateful for your time.
谢谢。
Thank you.
很高兴认识你并与你交谈。
Pleasure meeting you and talking with you.
你已听完本期《与交易员对话》的全部内容，但请放心，更多充满真实市场洞察、毫无炒作的节目即将上线。
You've reached the end of this episode of chat with traders, but rest assured, there are more episodes loaded with real market insight and zero hype on the way soon.
为了及时获取每期精彩新内容，请订阅该播客并在 iTunes 上关注，我们非常希望您能留下评分和评论。
So to stay updated with each great new release, subscribe to the podcast and iTunes, and we'd love it if you'd leave a rating and review.
下次再见，欢迎收听《与交易员对话》。
We'll catch you next time on chat with traders.
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