312 · 文森特·布鲁泽塞——与非理性市场的较量——以及内心的斗争

嗯。

Mhmm.

如果你卖出看跌期权，规则是权利金很可观，但你不能对被行权感到不满。

If you sell a put, the rule is the premium is great, but you cannot be unhappy with being assigned.

你还必须愿意持有那只股票。

You have to also wanna own that stock.

这需要一点基本面分析。

There's a little bit of fundamentals with it.

我觉得...我从来没这么做过，因为我更像是个交易员，做日内或波段交易。

I feel like I mean, I I never do that because I'm more of a trader, a day trader or swing trader.

我可以试试，但感觉那样会变得更像是...呃...

And I I can try that, but I just feel like that becomes more like like a Yeah.

长期持有，这对我没什么吸引力。

Longer And it doesn't really appeal to me.

不过在这种高波动性环境下，这确实值得考虑。

But but that's something to consider in this high volatility environment.

这不失为增加被动收入的一种方式。

It's not a bad way to just put some passive income in there.

要知道，特别是在当前市场环境下，如果有人持有长期股票投资组合并打算保持，

You know, particularly, I recommend if any in this market right now, if anyone also has their long term stock portfolio, you know, that they keep.

很多交易者都会单独开设一个账户。

A lot of traders have a separate account.

他们会专门用一个账户存放长期持有的股票，作为长期投资账户。

They have an account that they just keep some stocks in, and that's their long term account.

如果你打算在当前市场以任何长期形式增持股票，我强烈建议不要直接买入股票。

If you're going to add stocks in any type of long term fashion in this market, I would recommend certainly, don't buy the stock outright.

直接卖出看跌期权即可。

Just sell the puts.

只需卖出期权权利金。

Just sell the premium.

持续操作直到被行权，这样你就能获得该股票的所有权。

Then just keep doing it until you get assigned, and then you'll own that stock.

这比直接买股票要好得多。

It's a much better way than just outright buying the stock right now.

如果你想长期持有特斯拉股票的话。

So if you're like, oh, I wanna add Tesla to my long term.

别直接买特斯拉股票。

Don't buy Tesla.

你可以卖出4美元的430美元看跌期权。

You know, just sell the $4.30 puts for $4.

对。

Yeah.

如果成功买入，那就太好了。

And then if you get it, great.

反正你本来就是要买的。

Get it, you would have bought it anyway.

现在你以更优惠的价格买入，还赚取了权利金。

And now you get it at a better price, and you collected the premium.

所以，你知道的，这方法还不错。

So it's just, you know, not a bad way to do that.

假设，你知道的，交易者有

Assuming, you know, the trader has a

大量债务。

lot of debt.

假设你有大量债务。

Assuming you have a lot of debt.

我是说，这不适合所有人。

I mean, it's not for for everyone.

这很有趣。

It's funny.

我20岁的儿子，他是伯克利大学大三学生。

My son who is 20, he's a junior in Berkeley.

今年夏天，他从学校回来了。

And this summer, he came home from the summer.

你知道，我在洛杉矶，他想找份兼职工作，随时有点零花钱。

You know, I'm in LA, and he wanted to get a part time job just to have spending money whenever.

所以我建议他不如去做交易。

And so I suggested to him that he should do trading instead.

他有个账户，里面大概有，我不确定，56000美元左右。

And he had an account, you know, it's about, I don't know, $56,000 in his account.

你知道，这只是个小账户。

That's, you know, a small account.

每次他有钱就存进去，买了英伟达和其他股票，慢慢攒到了这个大学生所需的56000美元。

Every time he got money or whatever, he just put it in and he bought Nvidia and he bought stocks, and he built up the needed $56,000 college student.

于是整个夏天他都在做交易。

And so he traded it over the summer.

我把他的每一笔交易都发到了聊天室里。

And I posted every one of his trades in the in the chat room.

他连续13笔交易都成功了，用6000美元赚了大约3000美元。

He had 13 straight successful trades, and he made, around $3,000 off of his $6,000.

所以他在夏天获得了大约50%的回报。

So he made, like, a 50% return over the summer.

就这样他把暑期打工变成了每天花一两个小时

So he turned his summer job into spending one or two hours a day Yeah.

做交易。

Trading.

我没有告诉他该交易什么。

I didn't tell him what to trade.

他发短信给我说：'嘿，我要做多谷歌'。

He texted me and said, hey, I'm gonna go long Google.

问我是否看到任何危险信号？

Do I see any red flags?

你就是个例子。

You are as an example.

但他确实获得了50%的回报。

But he did a 50% return.

对我来说，这是一个很好的验证，即使是小账户也能做到，因为3000美元，这差不多就是你在星巴克当咖啡师一个夏天能赚到的钱。

And to me, it was a great validation of even with a small account, can manage to you know, because $3,000, that's pretty much what you would have gotten making, you know, being a barista at Starbucks over the summer.

是什么，是期权吗？

What was the, was it options?

还是说...

Or Yeah.

期权。

Options.

信用价差？

Credit spreads?

借方价差？

Debit spreads?

做了几个借方价差，或者直接买入实值看涨期权或实值看跌期权。

A couple of debit spreads or straight call in the money calls or in the money puts.

对。

Yeah.

你知道，他每次只买一两份合约。

You know, he'd buy one or two contracts at a time.

明白吗？

You know?

所以如果他想做多苹果股票，他会买入delta值0.7-0.8的看涨期权，可能一两份合约，因为每份大概800美元。

So if he'd wanted to go long Apple, he'd buy, you know, delta point 7.8 call on delta, maybe one or two contracts because they're, like, $800 each.

而且，他连续13笔交易都盈利了。

And, he had 13 straight winning trades.

他用了Option Stalker上的扫描工具，还有TC2000的图表分析功能，表现非常出色。

He used, the some of the scanners here on Option Stalker, and he used some of the charting on TC 2,000 and did great.

我是说...确实。

I mean Yeah.

他每天上午11点才起床，不过无所谓。

He woke up at 11AM every damn day, but fine.

所以你是说，他最近才开始交易，算是兼职性质？

So just recently, he started trading, you're saying, like, as a part time kind of thing.

是的。

Yeah.

他以前从没交易过。

He he never traded before.

哦。

Oh.

所以我

So I

我是说，我事先教过他交易方法，但他从没实际操作过。

mean, I taught him how to trade leading up to it, but he's never active.

有你教他确实很有帮助。

Well, it helps to have you teaching him.

他很幸运。

That's he's lucky.

要是他亏了钱，我早跟他断绝关系了。

Well, if he lost, I would have disowned his ass.

所以，你知道的，换了手拖把。

So, you know, changed hand mops.

所以他还没亏过。

So so he hasn't lost.

所以我是说，每个交易者都会经历那个阶段。

So that's I mean, you know, every trader at some point will go through that.

所以他还没经历过那个阶段。

And so he hasn't gone through that though yet.

没有。

No.

但他也是个堕落的赌徒。

But he is also a degenerate gambler.

他是伯克利大学扑克队的，扑克打得很好。

And he's on the Berkeley poker team, and he's really good at poker.

但我觉得他也有过几次相当惨重的赌博损失。

But he's he's had some pretty bad gambling losses, I'd say.

嗯

Mhmm.

不过，不，他还没在股票交易上亏过钱

But, no, he hasn't lost, trading stocks yet.

但你说得对，大多数

But most you're right.

我是说，大多数交易员，你看

Most traders I mean, look.

我刚入行时，上次应该告诉过你

When I started, I think I told you last time.

我刚开始交易时，两次亏掉了六位数的账户

When I was started, I lost 6 figure account twice.

被市场狠狠教训了

Got my ass beat.

是啊

Yeah.

然后你...你从那种境况中重新爬出来了？

And you you you crawled back out of that?

是的。

Yes.

我确实做到了。

I I did.

交易员们最不想听这个，但现实就是如此。

And traders hate to hear that if you want look.

在当前的经济形势下，成为交易员是个非常诱人的前景，因为其他工作的保障性很低。

In this economy right now, it's a very appealing prospect to be a trader because there's very not much job security.

人们正在被裁员。

People are getting laid off.

交易能给你财务自由和一套赚钱的技能，让你自己做老板，拥有人们向往的一切。

Trading gives you the financial independence and a skill set that allows you to make money, be your own boss, all the things that people want.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是个非常诱人的想法。

So it's a very attractive idea.

嗯。

Mhmm.

不吸引人的地方在于，要掌握这玩意儿至少需要两年时间。

What's not attractive is the idea that it takes it two years minimum to master this shit.

而且我说的两年，不是指两年都在亏损。

And and I'm talking two years where you're not spending two years losing.

而是两年都在模拟交易，每次只交易一股，还不断被市场教训。

You're spending two years paper trading and trading one share and getting your ass kicked.

我的意思是，你能想象有哪种工作能像交易这样，既给你职业安全感、自由等等，又不需要你花多年时间读书，或者多年伏案工作，在官僚体系中慢慢爬升才能达到目标吗？

And, I mean, if you can imagine, any type of job that gives you, you know, this job security, the freedom, all of that that trading does, that doesn't require you to put in either years of schooling or years of sitting at a desk working, grinding your way up through the bureaucracy to get to where you want.

任何工作都需要时间、努力和奉献才能得到你想要的回报。

Any job takes time, effort, dedication to to get what you want out of it.

交易也不例外。

Trading is no different.

问题在于，因为这些规则他妈太简单了——开户、买入、卖出、完事——每个人都以为自己能直接上手操作。

The problem is is that because the rules are so fucking easy, go in, get an account, buy, sell, done, Everyone thinks they can just go in and do it.

这有点像玩扑克或下象棋。

It's kinda like playing poker or playing chess.

学会规则只需一分钟，但进去就会输，因为这大部分内容不只是关于规则。

It takes a minute to learn, and then you go in and lose because most of it isn't just about the rules.

关键在于心态。

It's about the mindset.

在于识别模式，所有这些门道。

About recognizing the patterns, all of that shit.

所以，如果交易者能意识到他们需要真正投入时间去学习，这确实是个很棒的工作。

So, it it's a great job if only traders would realize they need to actually put in the time to learn it.

确实如此。

Exactly.

考虑到你的统计学背景——不能说统计学背景——你过去对人类行为建模时建立的人类行为模型。

Given your statistical background, you have a can't say statistical background in human behavior model you model human behavior in the past.

是的。

Yes.

这对你的交易有影响吗？

Did that impact your trading at all?

这给你带来优势了吗？

Did that give you an edge?

这对你有帮助吗？

Did that help you?

一开始这反而让我吃亏，因为我当时是个傲慢的混蛋，自以为能搞定一切。

It it kinda hurt in the beginning because I was an arrogant motherfucker and thought, I can do this.

我以为自己能看透这些规律。

I could read the patterns.

要知道，我从小就对预测人类行为极度痴迷，而股市正是这种行为的终极体现。所以我特别痛恨市场非理性的时候，因为预测非理性行为本身就是不理性的。

You know, for me, ever since I was a kid, it was always being about obsessed with predicting human behavior, and the stock market is the ultimate representation for that, which is why I hate when shit is so irrational because predicting irrationality is irrational.

所以刚开始时我总是想：'我应该能预测这个的'。

So in the beginning, it was, oh, I should be able to predict this.

起初我陷入了这个陷阱，认为价格行为是一回事，但我总能给股票涨跌找出合理化的解释。

And I fell into that trap in the beginning that a price action is one thing, but I could rationalize why a stock would go up or down.

对吧？

Right?

比如，我现在要做多奈飞，因为我刚发现有一百万人失业了。

Like, oh, I'm gonna go long Netflix right now because I just found out how many people, a million people were laid off.

嗯，他们现在都待在家里。

Well, they're home.

他们没钱了。

They don't have money.

他们根本负担不起去电影院或其他娱乐活动的开销。

They they can't afford really to go out to the movies or any other entertainment.

所以奈飞的订阅量会因此上升。

So they're gonna they're gonna you know, Netflix subscriptions are gonna go up because of that.

就好像机构投资者没想到这点似的，就好像这还没被市场消化似的——刚开始交易时，我总坐在那儿觉得自己比所有人都聪明。

As if institutions haven't thought of that shit, as if that's not already priced in, I would sit there when I'm in the beginning thinking I was smarter than all of them.

要知道，他们的研究部门可是坐拥数亿美元资金，但不行不行，我偏偏知道些他们没想到的东西。

You know, they have hundreds of millions of dollars in their research departments, but no, no, I knew something that they didn't think of.

对吧？

Right?

就像，他们会打电话来，不不，哦等等。

Like, they're gonna call up, no, no, oh, wait.

洛杉矶的文尼有个主意。

Vinny from LA has an idea.

但他们他妈早就知道了，对吧？

But they fucking knew that, right?

你几乎不可能想出什么他们还没考虑过的合理解释。

You very rarely will come up with something, a rationalization, that they haven't thought of already.

这就是所谓'已定价'的概念。

That's what the idea of being priced in is.

所以价格走势才如此重要，因为真正重要的是机构们在做什么。

And that's why price action is so important, because all that matters is what are institutions doing.

是的，散户投资者如今对市场的影响力比五到十年前更大了。

Yes, retail traders have a bigger impact in the market today than they did five, ten years ago.

但真正推动市场的仍是机构。

But institutions still move the market.

而你要站在机构这一边。

And you want to be on the side of the institution.

所以当我最终想明白后——当我开始学习，特别是当我结识皮特并开始了解他运用真实相对强度的交易方法，后来我又在Reddit上发现了真实日内交易板块，那时我才恍然大悟。

So when I finally figured out, right, and and when I started learning and the the when I hooked up with Pete and and and started seeing what he was doing with real relative strength, and then I found the real day trading on Reddit because I realized, okay.

我懂了。

I got it.

自那之后我持续盈利——不管具体是从什么时候开始的，已经连续盈利超过两年或一年半了。

I've now been consistently profitable for whatever it was when I started it over two year or year and a half straight.

而其他所有人都在不断亏钱。

And everyone else out there is losing all their money.

那些其他论坛和YouTube频道，全都在向人们兜售根本行不通的垃圾策略。

And all these other subs and all the other YouTube channels, they're all trying to sell people the shit that doesn't work.

所以如果你没问题，我不需要他们的钱。

So if you're alright, I don't need their money.

我想从有钱人那里赚钱。

I wanna take money from people who have money.

对吧？

Right?

大多数正在交易或试图学习交易的人，他们花钱买那些愚蠢的三棒方法、学习如何炒作低流通股——这些人往往是最需要钱的。

Most people who are trading or who are trying to learn how to trade or paying money for a stupid, you know, three bar method, how to scalp low floaters, those are the people that need money the most.

我不想赚他们的钱。

I don't wanna take their money.

我想赚那些钱多得没处花的混蛋富豪的钱，他们整天坐在那里玩市场。

I wanna I wanna take, you know, the rich fuckers' money who has way too much money and is sitting around playing on on the market.

所以我创建了real day trading这个社区，或许能教会人们：你们的方法错了。

So I that's why I started the the sub real day trading to help maybe teach people, look, you're doing it wrong.

这才是你们应该采取的正确方式。

This is how you should be doing it.

别再他妈做短线交易了。

Stop the fucking scalping.

别再买那些虚值看涨期权和虚值看跌期权了。

Stop the out of the money calls and the out of the money puts.

还不如去买张刮刮乐或者去拉斯维加斯赌一把。

Go buy a fucking scratch off ticket or go to Vegas.

那样至少更有趣。

You'll have more fun.

千万别干这种蠢事。

Don't don't do that shit.

这才是能持续赚钱的交易方式。

This is how you should trade if you wanna consistently make money.

到底是什么让你的交易从亏损转向盈利的？

So what really turned your trading around from losing to becoming profitable?

是策略更重要，还是心态更重要，或者单纯是市场经验积累？

Was it more the strategy or more the mindset or just the time in the market experience?

什么，到底是什么

What what really

我会说大约90%是心态问题。

I'd say about 90% mindset.

我认为关键在于意识到什么时候是在赌博。

I think it was one, realizing when gambling was gambling.

嗯。

Mhmm.

对吧？

Right?

很多时候，只要大声说出来：我就是在赌博。

And a lot of times it was simply saying it out loud like, I'm gambling.

比如，不要为明显是赌博的交易找借口。

Like, not trying to justify a trade that's clearly a gamble.

直接承认就好。

Just admit it.

你这是在赌博。

You're gambling here.

对吧？

Right?

就是说，这就是赌博。

Like, this is a gamble.

要知道，如果你能彻底清除交易中那些毫无正当理由的愚蠢操作。

You know, if if you just eliminate all the stupid shit from your trading that has no real justification.

我说的就是虚值看涨和看跌期权。

I'm talking out of the money calls and puts.

我指的是逆势交易。

I'm talking counter trend trading.

每次你做空当天上涨的标的，每次你做多当天下跌的标的，仅仅因为你感觉它已经跌太多了。

Every time you short something that is up on the day, every time you go long something that is down on the day because you feel like it's gonna it's already dropped too much.

它肯定会反弹的。

It's certain to bounce.

每次你做了所有这些蠢事，都是在逆市而行。

Every time you you you did all of that shit, you went against the market.

这可能覆盖了你约70%的亏损。

That would probably cover about 70% of your losses.

所有这些愚蠢的操作。

All that stupid shit.

而如果你剩下的都是可辩护的交易——我做这笔交易是因为日线图上它没有过度延伸。

And if what you're left with are defensible trades, I took this trade because on the daily chart, it's not extended.

它位于所有简单移动平均线之上。

It's above all of its SMAs.

它高于其技术指标。

It's above its technical indicators.

相对于大盘它表现强势。

It's strong relatively strong against the market.

你知道，我说的‘大盘’指的是SPY指数。

You know, there's the market when I say market, I'll speak of SPY.

SPY是市场的代表指标。

SPY is the proxy for the market.

它相对于SPY表现强势。

It's strong relative to SPY.

当这些条件都满足时，这就构成了你交易的主体部分，之后你就会开始看到显著的转变。

It's got all these things ticked off, and that becomes the bulk of your trading, then you'll start seeing a dramatic shift.

如果你在没有确认信号的情况下入场，太多人试图在确认前抢先做多，因为大家都害怕错过行情。

If you start going into things without confirmation, too many people try to front run shit going long before it's confirmed because everyone's afraid of missing the move.

是啊，你会他妈错过这波行情的。

Yeah, you're gonna miss the fucking move.

大部分行情都会错过。

A lot of it.

你盯着的都是些残羹剩饭。

What you're looking for is the scrap.

机构才能抓住大行情。

The institution gets the move.

抱歉，他们确实如此。

Sorry, they do.

摩根大通会抓住那波行情的90%。

JPMorgan will get 90% of that move.

但你知道吗？

But guess what?

剩下的那10%行情，足够让你过上相当滋润的生活。

That 10% of the move, you can make a damn good living off of.

所以如果你看到某股突破SMA均线时心想'现在该做多了'，务必确认它收盘站稳SMA上方。

So if you see something break through the SMA and you're like, oh, now I wanna go long, make sure it closes above the SMA.

实际上如果你想更保守些，就等第二天开盘价站稳均线再进场做多。

In fact, if you wanna be real conservative, make sure it opens above it the next day, then go long.

这样会错过大部分行情吗？

Did you miss a lot of that move?

当然会。

Sure.

但你也错过了90%会被市场教训的时机。

But you also miss around 90% of the time you're gonna get your ass kicked.

所以如果90%是心理障碍，你是怎么克服的？

So if it's 90% for you of the mindset, how I mean, how did you overcome it?

我是说，这花了你多长时间？

I mean, how long did it take?

因为我现在正在经历这个阶段。

And because I'm going through that right now.

有些日子我会觉得，嗯，是的。

And I there are days when I'm like, oh, yeah.

我做得越来越好了。

I've I'm doing much better.

但就像今天早些时候和你说的，我完全没遵守自己的规则。

And then like today, like I told you earlier, I just completely, like, didn't follow my rules.

每个人的规则可能不同，但我明知不该不设止损。

Everyone's rules might be different, but I knew better not to not have a stop for me.

可我还是这么做了。

And I did it anyway.

我也不知道，我为什么要这样？

And I don't know, like, why am I doing this?

就像，为什么？

It's like, why?

我知道这是不对的。

I know it's wrong.

所以这对我来说有时真是个挑战。

So it's such a challenge for me sometimes.

你是怎么克服这一点的？

How did you overcome that part?

你知道，就像我之前说的，傲慢有时伤人，有时也有帮助。

You know, sometimes, as I said earlier, arrogance hurts and sometimes it helps.

最初它确实伤人，因为我自以为无所不知、无所不能。

In the beginning it hurt, right, because I went in thinking I knew everything and I could do it.

但它的帮助在于，当你环顾四周时会发现，无论尝试做什么事情，首先要问自己的是：这真的可行吗？

But where it helped was when you look around and see whenever you try to do something, anything, the first thing you got to ask yourself is, is it actually possible, right?

交易能否持续盈利，还是说这只是一个骗局？

Is it possible to be consistently profitable trading or is it just a scam?

因此当我四处探寻时，发现某些交易者不仅声称这是可能的，而且我还能证实其可行性。

And so when I looked around and set out and found out and looked in certain traders and found not only, yes, they're saying it's possible, but I was able to confirm that it's possible.

我亲眼看到了那些交易记录。

I saw the trades.

我发现，自己能够回溯查看一整年的交易是否存在。

I saw that, you know, I was able to go back and look over a year if there are trades.

这就是为什么我公开所有记录——为了让人们看到这是可能的，我所做之事是可验证的，你们也能做到。

That's why I post everything so people could see that it is possible, that what I'm doing is provable and you can do it.

当我确认这件事确实可行后，那份傲慢反而成了助力。

Once I found out that, yes, this can be done, then the arrogance helped.

因为既然有人能做到，就没人能对我说‘你做不到’。

Because if it can be done, no one's gonna tell me I can't do it.

显然存在可行的方法。

There's obviously a way to do it.

所以对我来说，第一步就是意识到，如果你想以打扑克为生，你首先要问的是：真的有人能以打扑克为生吗？

So for me, that was the first step was realizing, like, if you wanted to play poker for a living, the first thing you would do is say, there people that can actually play poker for a living?

还是说如果这纯粹是赌博，那就根本不可能？

Or is it if it's just pure gambling, there would be no way.

对吧？

Right?

如果纯粹靠运气，没有人能幸运到可以持续盈利并以此为生。

No one is lucky enough if it's pure gambling to be consistently profitable to make a living off of something.

对吧？

Right?

从统计学上讲根本不可能实现。

There's just no way statistically to do it.

但显然，确实有职业扑克玩家以此为生。

But obviously, there are poker players who do make a living.

所以这是可能的。

So it's possible.

如果我想成为一名职业扑克玩家，我会采用同样的思维方式。

If I were to say become a wanna become a professional poker player, I would take that same mindset.

我会想，他们一定做对了什么。

I would be like, they're doing something right.

而我没有。

I'm not.

他们做了什么而我却没做？

What are they doing that I'm not doing?

很多时候，这在于加注赢牌。

And a lot of the times, it's adding to winners.

很多时候，如果你看他们赢牌和输牌之间的不平衡，会发现赢牌的收益远大于输牌的损失。

A lot of the times, it's if you look at the imbalance between their winners and their losers, their winners are much bigger than their losers are.

对吧？

Right?

并不存在恐惧。

There's not a fear.

我们怀有的是错误的恐惧类型，因为当交易对我们不利时，我们突然变得他妈的一厢情愿地希望它们会反转。

There's we we have the wrong type of fear because when our trades go against us, we suddenly become super fucking hopeful they're gonna turn around.

但当交易顺利时，我们又突然变得他妈的极度悲观，担心行情会逆转。

But when our trades work, we suddenly become super fucking pessimistic that they're gonna reverse on us.

如果我们能彻底扭转心态，在正确时保持乐观而在错误时保持悲观，仅这一思维转变就能彻底改变你的交易格局。

If we actually became a flip bat and became hopeful when we're right and pessimistic when we're wrong, that mind shift alone could could change your entire trading game.

因为仔细想想，当你做了一笔交易并且它正在盈利，说明你是对的。

Because if you think about it, when you make a trade and it's working, you were right.

你分析后认为会上涨，于是买入看涨期权或股票，而它确实开始上涨。

You're looked at it, said this is going to go up, I'm taking a call or buying the stock, and it actually starts going up.

你的判断是正确的。

You were correct in your assessment.

那为什么大多数交易者反而会变得最害怕呢？

So why is it then that most traders become most afraid?

你刚刚被证明是正确的，现在却最害怕情况会逆转。

You were actually just proven right, and now you're most afraid that it's going to turn against you.

这是交易者面临的关键问题之一，还有'糟了，我错了'，却还坚信'它会反弹回来'。

That's part of the key issue that traders have, as well as, oh shit, I was wrong, but yet believing, oh, it's going to come back.

它会反转的。

It's going to reverse.

我继续持有。

I'm holding it.

把心态反转过来。

Flip that.

直接来个180度转变。

Just flip it around.

是啊。

Yeah.

那么写交易日志有帮助你看清这些情况吗？就是那个，对。

So did journaling did you journal to kinda help you see these things in the Yeah.

我确实记过。

I did.

我以前记，现在仍然在记。

I used I still do.

我用的是Trader's Inc。

I used Trader's Inc.

作为交易日志。

As a journal.

市面上有很多日志工具。

I mean, there are plenty of journals out there.

我就是...我就是喜欢它。

I just I I I like it.

用起来很顺手。

It it's I'm comfortable with it.

我还独创了'离场分析'方法。

I came away I came up with the walkaway analysis.

我开发了'撤离分析'方法，核心思想是：当你回顾所有交易时，假设如果持仓时间延长五分钟、一小时、直至收盘、甚至两天会怎样？

I developed the walkaway analysis, which is the, idea that if you take a look at all your trades and you say, okay, what would happen if I held this five minutes longer, one hour longer, held it to the end of the day, held it for two days, right?

你只需输入数据，或者系统会自动记录平仓后五分钟、一小时的对应价格。

And you just entered in, or the system will enter in what the price was five minutes after you closed it, an hour after you closed it.

你可以自由设置任何时间间隔。

You could set any intervals you want.

嗯。

Mhmm.

数据显示，多数盈利交易若延长持仓时间——很多人向我反馈，平均多持有一个半小时，利润就能提升40%。

Chances are you will see that on most of your winners, if you held them longer, right, and most of the a lot of people come out to me, held my winners like an hour and a half on average longer, my profit would have gone up 40%.

实施撤离分析能帮助交易者建立这种思维模式，因为它直观证明：让盈利单多跑一小时甚至一个半小时，而非刚盈利就平仓，仅此一项就能显著提升整体收益。

And doing the walkway analysis is one thing that helps people with that mindset because it's it shows them that ride those if you ride those winners longer and just hold them sometimes even for an hour, an hour and a half longer instead of jumping out the moment you hit a profit, that alone will will boost your your p and l.

请为听众们回顾一下您的核心交易策略和交易方法？

So for the listeners, can you remind us of your, like, your bread and butter, trading trading strategy, trading approach?

好的。

Yeah.

确实如此。

It is.

首先，市场是第一位的。

And one, the market comes first.

对吧？

Right?

所以一切都围绕市场运行。

So everything revolves around the market.

75%的股票——无论是否在指数中——都会跟随SPY走势。

75% of all stocks, whether they're in the index or not, will go with SPY.

如果SPY上涨，75%的股票总体会上涨；如果下跌，75%的股票也会随之下跌。

If SPY is up, 75% of stocks in general will be up, and 75% will be down if it's down.

明白吗？

Right?

因此你要寻找那些不符合我们聊天室所说的'低概率交易环境'(LPTE)的日子。

So you're looking for days that aren't what we call in the in the chat room low probability trading environments, LPTE.

我们寻找的是市场有明确趋势方向的日子。

We're looking for days that are trend days that have actual direction in the market.

所以市场是第一位的。

So the market comes first.

其次是相对于市场而言，个股表现是相对强势还是弱势？

Then second is is a stop relatively strong or relatively weak to the market?

换句话说，如果你今天看谷歌，现在谷歌仍上涨29美分，但市场今天下跌了近1%。

In other words, if you look today at Google, right now Google's still up 29¢, but the market is down almost 1% today.

这就像绑在谷歌腿上的锚，把它往下拽。

That's like an anchor around Google's legs, pulling it down.

谷歌想要下跌，因为指数正在下跌。

It wants Google wants to drop because the indexes are dropping.

但它仍然是绿色的。

But it's still green.

要让这种情况发生——这就是相对强势，意味着它相对于市场表现更强。

In order for that to happen, and that's relative strength, that means it's relatively strong to the market.

要让这种情况发生，机构投资者必须进场支撑谷歌股价。

In order for that to happen, institutions have to be in there supporting Google.

他们必须——散户交易者无法提供那种级别的交易量。

They have to retail traders can't give that type of volume.

所以机构正在买入这只股票，尽管他们在抛售指数和其他股票。

So institutions are buying that stock even though they're selling the index and selling other stocks.

我想站在机构这一边。

I wanna be on the side of the institution.

现在我已经确认，谷歌和苹果是今天如果我想做多的话相对强势的两只股票。

So now I've now identified, okay, Google, Apple, two stocks that if I wanted to go long today are relatively strong.

接下来我要做的是查看日线图。

So the next thing I would do is look at the daily chart.

这是第三步。

That's the third step.

我现在查看日线图，看到谷歌股价位于所有简单移动平均线之上。

I now look at the daily chart and see, okay, Google's in is above all the SMAs.

它没有过度偏离EMA 15均线。

It's not overextended from the EMA 15.

它已经公布了财报，因财报跳空高开，且尚未回补那个缺口。

It's already had earnings, gapped up on earnings, and has not yet gone back into that gap.

它守住了缺口，目前接近历史高点2.91美元左右。

It's held the gap, and it's near its all time high at $2.91 90 something.

我喜欢那些接近历史高点的股票。

I like stocks that are by their all time high.

为什么？

Why?

因为那个价位上方没有套牢盘。

Because there's no bag holders above that number.

你看，当股价达到2.92美元时，不会有人说'我要卖出，因为我以这个价格被套了两年终于解套了'。

You know, there's nobody who, once it hits you know, if it gets to $2.92, it's gonna be like, I'm selling because I've been holding this damn thing for two years at this price and I'm finally breaking even.

几乎所有买入谷歌的人现在都处于盈利状态。

Every almost anyone who bought Google is in profit right now.

所以除非有获利了结的理由，否则谷歌会继续上涨。

So unless there's a a reason to take profit, Google will just continue to go up.

因此现在我确定了一个不错的日线图，相对强势。

And so now I've identified a good daily chart, relative strength.

市场对我来说唯一不利的因素就是大盘走势。

The only thing I don't have in my favor is the market.

这就是当前市场与我们上次交谈时不同的地方。

And this is where this market is different than the last time we spoke.

因为通常我会建议，你需要等待并确认市场不会延续这种下跌趋势。

Because normally I would say, you need to wait and make sure that the market isn't going to continue this downward trend.

但近九个月来我们看到的景象是，即便是核战争在这种市场环境下都可能被解读为利好。

But what we've seen now for almost nine months straight is this market I mean, nuclear fucking war could be seen as bullish for this market right now.

所以这个市场十有八九会反弹，会继续上涨。

So this market, nine times out of 10, is going to bounce back, is going to continue up.

我现在愿意做多苹果或谷歌，而两年前我会建议观望，确保今天市场的下跌不会持续。

I would be willing now to take along or Apple or Google, where two years ago I'd say I'd recommend wait, make sure that today's drop in the market doesn't continue.

但现在我把SPY的50日简单移动平均线作为我的参考线。

But now I'm looking at the SMA 50 on SPY as my line.

对于正在收听的各位，这条线目前在SPY上是664.73。

And that line right now, for anyone listening, is at 664.73 on SPY.

除非SPY指数跌破那条线，否则我会继续保持看涨立场。

Spy needs to break that line for me to no longer want to take bullish links.

所以这算是你的心理止损点吗？

So that's kind of your mental stop?

是的。

Yeah.

那就是说，我不用硬性止损，除非我要出去抽根烟。

That would be I don't get you know, I don't use hard stops unless I'm gonna go out and smoke a cigarette.

我在炒短线时。

I'm scalping something.

所以我用心理止损位。

So I use mental stops.

你是一次交易一只股票，还是作为一个投资组合来交易？

Do you trade one stock at a time, or do you trade as a portfolio?

你有一组股票吗？

Do you have, like, a group of stocks?

我有一组。

I have a group.

我是说，我现在做多黄金。

I mean, I'm long gold right now.

我做多苹果，做多Oscar。

I am long Apple, long Oscar.

我做空特斯拉。

I am short Tesla.

重申一下，我已经做空了它。

Again, I've shorted it.

我在TTD上有一个时间价差。

I have a a time spread on TTD.

我目前持有SPY的长期看跌期权，同时在Meta上有一个看涨期权价差的一边，预计明天会反弹。

I have a leap puts on SPY at the moment, And I have the, one side of a call debit spread on meta for a bounce back tomorrow.

所以我现在持有一、二、三、四、五、六、七，共七个仓位。

So I have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven positions on.

好的。

Okay.

所以你像管理投资组合一样管理它们。

So you manage it like a portfolio.

这管理起来挺多的。

That's a lot to manage.

所以我明白为什么，当你以组合方式交易时——虽然我不确定它们是否足够分散——但可以理解为什么有些人不用止损会感觉更自在。嗯。

So I can see why, like, when you trade, like, portfolio style, and they're I don't know if they're diversified enough, but, like, I can see why some people can be more comfortable, like, not having stops, you know, and and Mhmm.

因为里面包含了许多不同的股票。

Because it's there's a bunch of different stocks in there.

你是直接使用股票交易，还是对所有这些都使用期权？

Is it are you using straight out shares, or are you using options on all all of them?

都有。

Both.

都有。

Both.

比如我在Oscar持有股票，但在Apple持有期权。

You know, I have shares on Oscar, for example, but options on Apple.

我会两者兼顾。

I'll go both.

我今天做空了1000股特斯拉。

I'll you know, I had I short a thousand shares on Tesla today.

我会根据情况灵活调整。

So I'll go back and forth on it.

而且从2023到2024年期间，我发布的交易规模非常夸张，比如1万股特斯拉之类的，当然有人提醒过我。

And, also, in from 2023 to 2024, I was posting, just insane sizes, you know, 10,000 shares of Tesla or and what people obviously told me, you know, hey.

是啊。

Yeah.

学习经验固然很好，但如果你在亚马逊上接了500个看涨期权的电话，而且是深度实值期权，这就不太有共鸣了。

It's great learning, but it's not very relatable if you're taking 500 calls on on Amazon, deep in the money calls.

我理解。

I get it.

好的。

Okay.

所以现在我基本上在运作两个不同的账户——一个账户里我会说'好，我空了1000股特斯拉'，或者'我买了25份苹果合约'，规模大到足以让你在销售时核查并确认我的交易记录。

So now I'm kinda running two different I'm running an account where I'm saying, Okay, I'm short 1,000 shares on Tesla, or I took 25 contracts on Apple, large enough that you can go in time to sales and still confirm my trade and see that it's there.

但如果是更大的交易，比如我那么做时，有时我会说'好，我还要再做250份苹果合约'。

But the larger trade, like, if I do that, sometimes I'll be like, okay, and I'm also gonna do two fifty contracts on Apple.

我只是用另一个账户操作，不公开那个账户的交易。

I'm just doing a separate account, not posting that one.

但这只是个比例问题。

But it's just a matter of proportion.

所以如果我公开说'做了25份看涨期权'。

So if I'm posting, did 25 calls.

有时候我也会做250手看涨期权，但我只公布那25手，这样你们可以查证到。

There are times I'll also do 250 calls, but I'm posting the 25 that and it's confirmable when you could see it.

你的投资组合平均持仓时间是多久？

What's the average, duration of, you know, your portfolio?

哦，大约一天。

Oh, about a day.

一天？

Day?

哦。

Oh.

一天半。

A day and a half.

所以你是个日内交易者？

So so you are a day trader?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，明天你问我，这些持仓都会变。

I mean, I'll tomorrow, if you ask me tomorrow, mean, all these positions will be different.

哦，那你是怎么准备的？

Oh, so then how do you do how do you prepare for this?

这些都是在盘前做的吗？

Is this all in the pre market?

你是在收盘后为第二天做准备吗？

Are you doing this end of day for the next day?

比如，你的流程是怎样的？

Like, how do you what's your your process?

我早上6:20起床，距离开市还有十分钟，挣扎着爬起来，快速抽根烟，喝杯咖啡，赶在开盘铃响前跑到显示器前，看看图表，然后开始一天。

I wake up at 06:20 in the morning, ten minutes before the market starts, drag myself out of the bed, quickly grab a cigarette, drink coffee, run to my, monitors here before the bell rings, look up at at the charts, and start the day.

这就是我现在准备的方式。

That's how that's how I prep now.

然后我会回复X平台或聊天室里收到的所有消息和短信。

And then I answer any any messages and texts I get off of X or in the chat room.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，以前我会很早起床做所有的盘前准备工作，看看盘前哪些股票在涨哪些在跌。

I mean, it used to be I would wake up way early and do all the premarket prep and see what was up premarket and down premarket.

你知道吗？

And you know what?

但这根本没用。

It just it didn't it didn't help.

不过话说回来，那是我还在教书的时候，当我还是教授的时候，在电影行业工作的时候，需要做演讲。

But, again, that's when I was in the, whenever I taught, when I was a I was a professor, when I was in the movie industry, and I had to give presentations.

有时候，比如我的团队会做很长的PPT演示文件——那时候我们还用PowerPoint做演示。

And sometimes, for example, my my staff would make this, like, long power back then when we used PowerPoint presentations or whatever.

甚至在拉斯维加斯的CinemaCon上，我会站在台上面对两三千人进行演讲。

And I some even at I like, CinemaCon in Las Vegas, I would get up in a room and there'd be two, three thousand people in there and I'd stand up on stage and give it.

我一直坚持事先不看演示文稿。

I always insisted on not seeing the presentation beforehand.

一个字都不看。

Not a word of it.

我希望在演示时即兴发挥，保持新鲜感。

I wanted to read it fresh off the cuff as I was presenting it.

我从来都不是那种擅长提前准备的人。

I was never someone who did well with prepping anything.

所以我基本上在开盘前一分钟才坐在这把椅子上，这可能不是人们应该效仿的做法。

So the fact that I basically sit in this chair a minute before the opening bell is probably not something that people should look at and go, oh, I should do that.

我的风格就是从不做准备，我从来不为任何事情做准备。

Just my style was to never prep, and I never ever prep for anything.

我不做准备。

I don't prep.

所以你只是等待市场动向然后做出反应？

So you just wait to see what the market does and then you react.

是的。

Yeah.

你进场时并没有交易计划。

You don't have a trading plan going in.

我是说，不像那种结构化的计划。

I mean, not like a structured one.

没有。

No.

我会在开盘瞬间快速查看这边的Option Stalker，看看哪些相对弱势，哪些相对强势。

I'll look at I'll quickly the moment it opens, I'll look at Option Stalker over here, and I'll see what is relatively weak, relatively strong.

我会查看这边的TC2000，观察SPY的走势图，并检查我的持仓情况。

I'll look at TC thousand over here, take a look at the charts in SPY, and I'll look at my positions.

应该说，先查看我的隔夜持仓。

I should say, look at my overnight positions first.

我该平掉部分还是全部保留？

Should I close any or not close any?

鉴于当前市场状况，我倾向于更快地平掉盈利的空头仓位，而非多头仓位。

And I'm more likely to close a short in profit faster than I will close a long because of the way this market is right now.

然后我会开始寻找是否有任何明显的好交易机会。

And then I will start searching to see if there's anything that's really popping out at me in terms of this is a good trade.

我还会检查持仓情况，比如如果多头仓位过多，可能会考虑是否应该开个不错的空头仓位。

I'll also check to see, for example, if I have too many longs, I might look to see is there a good short I should put on.

如果空头仓位过多，就会想着需要平衡一下，或许找个像样的多头标的。

If I have too many shorts, it might go, alright, I need to balance this and maybe put on a rough something that's a decent long.

这些就是我会进行的检查。

So I'll do that to check.

比如我很喜欢做特斯拉的短线交易。

I love scalping Tesla, for example.

今天我就做了三四次特斯拉的短线。

I scalped it three, four times today.

这支股票很容易做短线。

It's an easy stock to scalp.

而且这支股票很容易操作。

And it's an easy stock.

举个例子，我一周前做空特斯拉时搞砸了。

For example, I fucked up when I short Tesla a week ago.

大概是在八九天前。

It was around eight, nine days ago.

我在436、437美元的价位做空。

And I shorted at $4.36, $4.37.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

我一路持有这个空头仓位直到特斯拉涨到470美元，整整1000股，因为我知道特斯拉最大的优点就是这该死的股价会在一个区间内震荡。

And I held that short all the way up to Tesla being at $4.70, 1,000 shares of it, because I knew the great thing about Tesla is that freaking stop is gonna stay in a range.

比如现在，特斯拉从九月份以来一直在404.70美元上下波动。

Like, right now, Tesla has gone between $404.70 since September.

你只需要耐心等待这支该死的股票回调。

You just have to wait that damn stock out.

它会回来的。

It's going to come back.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是我喜欢做短线的一只股票，因为我喜欢那些即使走势不如预期也能持有的股票。

So that's one I like to scalp because I I like stocks that I can hold on to if it's not going in my direction.

当然，我更倾向于长期持有任何股票，但特斯拉你可以一直拿着。

Granted, I prefer holding it long, any stock long, but you can hold on to a Tesla.

是啊。

Yeah.

它有自己的个性。

It has a personality.

我是说，每只股票听起来都像是有个性的。

I I mean, every stock sounds like yeah.

了解你经常交易的股票个性非常有用。

It it's very helpful to know the personality of of the stocks that you trade often.

是啊。

Yeah.

就像，这股票性格就是个混蛋。

Like, personality is is an asshole.

这支股票真是让人头疼。

It's a pain in the ass stock.

哪支股票啊？

Which which stock is that?

OSCR。

OSCR.

这支股票特别难搞。

It's tall, pain in the ass stock.

这支股票早上能涨1块5，收盘前就能跌4毛。

The stock will be up a dollar 50 in the morning and down 40¢ before you close.

每次都是这样，该死的。

It it every damn time.

对吧？

Right?

所以这股票很烦人，但从基本面来看我还是喜欢的。

So that sucks a pain in the ass, but I do like the stock fundamentally.

所以为什么

So Why

为什么不直接交易呢？

not just trade?

我感觉...我是说我以前也想那样做，你知道的，就是寻找相对于SPY的相对强势股，然后深入研究股票并进行扫描。

I feel like I mean, I I used to wanna do that, like, you know, look for relative strength to the spy and and, you know, drill down in stocks and scan.

我只是觉得这工作量太大了。

I just feel like it's so much work.

所以最后我就只交易SPY或QQQ了。

And so I ended up just trading, you know, either SPY or QQQ.

我觉得这样更简单，不过我也不确定。

I just think it's simpler, but I don't know.

你对此有什么看法？

What are your thoughts on that?

交易个股可以赚更多的钱。

You can make a lot more money trading the stocks.

简单来说原因就是，假设我做多一只相对强势的股票。

And the simple reason for that is, let's say, I go long a stock that is relatively strong.

对吧？

Right?

假设我做多，比如说SPY。

Let's say I go long Let's say here on SPY.

SPY今天早些时候在673点。

SPY is at you know, earlier today, SPY is at six seventy three.

同一时间谷歌在286点。

And at the same point in time, Google is at two eighty six.

然后SPY跌到了671点左右，671点，670点。

SPY then drops down to six seventy one ish, six seventy one, six seventy.

由于谷歌具有相对强势，它只跌到了285美元。

Because Google has relative strength, it drops down to two eighty five.

所以我获得的缓冲空间是——如果我在6.73美元做多SPY，那么我在ETF上每股会亏损3美元。

So the buffer I got there, if I just went long SPY at $6.73, I'd be I'd be down $3 a share on an ETF.

嗯。

Yeah.

在谷歌286美元时做多，因为它相对强势，当SPY下跌时，谷歌的跌幅比例没有SPY那么大。

Going on Google at $2.86, because it's relatively strong, when SPY dropped, Google did not drop proportionally as much as SPY did.

所以我在谷歌上每股只亏损1美元。

So I'm only down a dollar a share on Google.

从百分比来看，我的亏损比做空SPY要少。

And percentage wise, I'm down less than I would be on Spy.

这就是它提供的缓冲空间。

So it gives you that buffer.

SPY后来上涨了。

Spy had gone up.

谷歌的涨幅会按比例大于Spy的涨幅。

Google would have gone up proportionally more than Spy would have gone up.

对。

Yeah.

所以再次说明，我在谷歌上赚得更多。

So again, I'm making more on Google.

我完全明白了。

I totally get that.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是相对强度的美妙之处，就像你

And that's the beauty of relative strength like you

没错。

Right.

相对强度分析。

Relative strength analysis.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我并不是在预测，你知道，标普500指数显然对新闻非常敏感。

And I'm not predicting you know, SPY is obviously very news sensitive.

它可能波动得非常快。

It can move very quickly.

所以拥有这种缓冲，知道有独立因素驱动个股走势，确实能给你带来优势。

So having that buffer, having the idea that something is separately driving the stock is certainly gives you an advantage.

因为像标普500指数及其期货这类产品，你基本上只是在预测指数方向，这始终是个挑战。

Because with SPY and, like, SPY futures, you're just kinda predicting the direction on SPY, which is always always a challenge.

那你在交易分析过程中会使用人工智能吗？比如作为分析工具之类的？

Now do you use AI at all on a you know, as part of your trading process in your analysis or anything like that?

不会。

No.

并不算。

Not really.

我是说，我偶尔会使用ChatGPT。

I mean, will if I'll use ChatGPT every now and then.

你看，我有Trade Exchange这个新服务。

I mean, look, I have trade exchange up, right, which is just a new service.

它会推送所有即将发布的新闻。

It gives you all the news coming.

但当我看到某只股票大幅波动时，比如谷歌突然涨了67美元，而Trade Exchange上没有任何相关新闻，我可能会去Twitter X上搜索并输入关键词看看有没有相关信息。

But I will if I see a big move on a stock, you know, let's say Google jumps up $67, whatever, and I'm looking at trade exchange and I see no news on that thing, I can maybe search Twitter X and just type in goat and see if anything's there.

不过我也可以直接问ChatGPT：'这股票今天为什么涨这么多？'

But I could also just go watch that GPT and say, hey, why the hell is the stock up so much today?

把你找到的信息告诉我。

Give me your give me tell me what you find.

我用这个的频率和用Twitter搜索或Trade Exchange差不多。

I'll just as soon as use that as I'll use searching on on Twitter or using trade exchange.

但我会把它用于新的搜索，而不会用来问'嘿'

But I'll use it for, like, a new search, but I won't use it for, hey.

我该做多还是做空？

What should I go long or short?

或者你怎么看，或者贴张图表进去

Or what do you think or pasting in a chart.

它现在还没达到那个水平

It's just not there yet.

现在还不够好

It's not good enough yet.

是啊

Yeah.

我是说，我现在每天早上越来越多地用它来

I mean, I use it more and more now every morning for

你觉得它怎么样？

How do you find it?