324 · 彼得·罗宾斯：50 年交易生涯的残酷真相

流程必须比你的冲动更强大。

Processes need to be stronger than your impulses.

所以关键在于理解你的冲动是什么，感受背后的情绪，以及为什么会出现这种冲动。

So this is where understanding your impulse, what that is, understanding the emotion you're feeling and why you're having that impulse.

首先，随着时间推移，你可以慢慢培养出抗压能力。

One, you can build up resilience over time.

这不是要消灭情绪，而是要觉察自己的情绪，觉察自己的反应，然后主动调整，久而久之，你就更能应对，也更懂自己。

So it's not about eliminating your emotions, about being aware of your emotions and being aware of your response and countering that, and then slowly over time you build up a resilience to it and a better understanding.

这就是觉察的意义——真正观察你当下的感受、行为，以及背后的原因，然后去触及那些深层问题，并试着解决它们。

That's where the awareness piece comes in, Like really observing what you're feeling, what you're doing, why you're doing what you're doing, and then try to get to those underlying issues and try to deal with them.

很多人过去经历过创伤，带着各种旧有的信念，这些都会触发他们的反应，进而引发特定行为。

A lot of people, they have trauma from the past, they have all sorts of beliefs from the past, those are going to trigger them and they're going to trigger behavior.

如果不正视和理解这些根源，他们就会不断重复同样的错误。

And until they actually deal with them and understand them, they're going to continue to make those mistakes.

这太关键了。

That's huge.

觉察。

Awareness.

我是说，太棒了。

I mean, love it.

觉察。

Awareness.

在交易中，你必须极度了解自己。

You gotta just be so self aware in trading.

因为说到底，交易就像一面镜子，反映的是你本人。

Because again, traders, trading is a mirror, is a reflection.

所以你得时刻清楚自己当下的心态。

So you have to be so fully aware of really your mindset in the moment.

我想接下来聊一聊这个话题。

And that's something I wanna transition to here in a second.

你刚才提到导师能帮你发现盲点。

But you had mentioned mentorship and how mentors can help you with your blind spots.

我看到你提到过一位导师，叫比尔·威廉斯，他总跟你说：彼得，你得想要市场想要的东西。

Now, I read that you had a mentor, his name was Bill Williams, and who kept telling you, Look, Peter, you gotta want what the market wants.

别总想着你想要什么。

Don't want what you want.

要想要市场想要的东西。

Want what the market wants.

市场只是在客观地呈现信息，别跟它较劲。

It's just printing objective information and never try to pick a fight with it.

所以我想问问，这些建议是怎么影响你的交易的？你觉得有个导师到底有多重要？

So I wanna ask you how that advice kinda shaped your trading and also how important do you think it is to have a mentor?

对。

Yeah.

再说一遍，关于自我觉察这件事，对吧？

So again, that whole thing about self awareness, right?

知道你是在跟市场交易，还是在跟自己的情绪较劲，对吧？

Knowing when you're trading the market versus when you're trading your mood, right?

比尔说的，就像我常说的，要跟着市场的需求走。

And Bill's saying, like I say, want what the market wants.

这道理再清楚不过了，对吧？

It just makes so much sense, right?

人们总想交易自己想买的，可市场只会做它想做的事。

People trade what they want, and the market is going to do what it wants.

如果你不跟市场保持一致，不跟着它的节奏走，迟早会亏钱。

And then unless you get aligned with it and dance with the market, you're going to lose money.

关于导师这件事，我这些年其实遇过不少导师。

So the idea of mentorship, and I've had a number of mentors over the years.

不光是比尔，我在大学时，街角有个经纪人，我常去找他聊天，他也会给我上课。

It wasn't just Bill, when I was in university, there was a broker down the street I would go to and chat with and he would give me lessons.

但比尔是第一个真正对我影响深远的，因为他传授了自己的一整套方法论，很多人容易陷在这些方法里，对吧？

But Bill was the first one that was a big one in the sense of he taught us his methodology, which again, a lot will get caught up in that, right?

但他不止讲方法，还花很多时间谈心理层面的问题，对吧？

But it wasn't also but he also talked a lot about psychology, right?

还有怎么应对这些情况。

And how to deal with these things.

对我来说，这真的特别有帮助。

So it was it was great to me.

现在我看市场的方式，和以前认识他之前完全不一样了。

I look at the market now through a certain way of looking at it that I didn't see before him.

我学得很快，这种转变对我影响特别大。

And I learned it quickly and made a huge difference on on me that way.

对吧？

Right?

所以，现在的问题是，找到真正合适的导师很难。

So again, find and the problem right now these days is finding the right mentor.

对吧？

Right?

因为现在到处都是自称导师的人，其实根本算不上导师。

Because there's so many mentors that are not really mentors.

他们管这叫什么来着？

They're what do they call them?

是那种虚假的导师吧？

Fruits, right?

就像那些假大师一样。

Like the false gurus.

他们吹嘘的一些数据，根本不可能实现，你仔细一算就明白了。

And they're just claiming certain stats that are just literally impossible if you looked at it, right?

希望人们能找得到真正靠谱的导师。

And Hopefully people are So being able to find a mentor, one that's good.

再说一遍，我主要看两类人：一类是导师，一类是教练。

Again, I look at two things, one is a mentor and one is a coach.

这是两个完全不同的角色。

So there's two different things.

导师呢，通常是那些用自己交易方法的人，他们会把自己的方法教给你，这很好。

Mentors are used to people that are trading their methodology and teach you their methodology, which is great.

但教练不一样，他们会看你交易中的各种因素，帮你调整策略，让它更贴合你个人的特点。

But a coach is more someone that would look at all the different variables of trading, help you adapt to fit you more personally.

所以说，找个教练可能更重要。

So again, it's probably having a coach.

你想想，还有哪个行业或领域，人们在学新东西的时候，身边没有经理、教练或者导师呢？

And when you think about it, what other profession or anything out there where people are learning something new, where they don't have a manager, a coach, mentor, right?

比如搞商业，你想当医生，就得进住院医师培训，跟着有经验的医生边干边学，对吧？

Like in business, if you want to become a doctor, you're in residence and you're in residence with other experienced doctors teaching you how to do things, right?

如果你打高尔夫，也会花时间向职业选手请教。

If you're a golfer, you spend time with the pros.

所以说，交易的人偏偏觉得必须自己单干，这其实挺奇怪的，对吧？

If you're, again, not to why trading people think they need to do it on their own is very strange, right?

是因为自由。

It's the freedom.

对吧？

Right?

我知道马克·道格拉斯也经常提到这一点，从小我们就被灌输，你得这么做，你得那么做。

And I know and Mark Douglas talked about that a lot, how we you're always told from a young age onward, you know, you gotta you gotta do this.

你得这么做。

You gotta do that.

结果现在突然有了无限的自由和灵活性，好像可以随心所欲做自己了。

And now, oh, I have unlimited freedom and flexibility to be who I wanna be kind of thing.

很多人就这样掉进了这个陷阱。

And people fall prey to that trap, right?

结果被吞进去，搅得七零八落，再吐出来。

And then they they get sucked in, chewed up, and spit out.

所以这就自然引出了下一点——把交易当成一门生意。

So in your this transitions right into the next piece here, which is trading as a business.

你一直强调这一点。

You know, that's what you emphasize.

交易者应该专注于打造一门生意。

Traders should focus on building a business.

所以，咱们得放下那种‘我想做谁就做谁’的自由心态，转而专心打造这个商业计划。

So let's get rid of that freedom mindset where I can be who I want to be and focus more on building this business plan.

然后你说，钱只是这个过程的副产品。

And then you say the money is a byproduct of that.

所以你要先把重心放在做生意上，赚钱是次要的。

So you're focused first on business, secondary money.

你觉得为什么交易者会把顺序搞反呢？

Why do you think traders get that backwards?

说到底，大多数人是因为想赚钱才入行的，他们根本没意识到，真正需要付出的是什么。

Well, again, most of them are attracted to trading for the money, and they don't want they're surrounded by all these unrealistic expectations about, what does it take.

所以我一直强调，交易是一门正经的事业。

So my whole point is that trading is a serious endeavor.

它是一份严肃的职业，你必须认真对待。

It's a serious career, and you need to take it seriously.

这可不是简单地按个按钮买，再按个按钮卖那么简单。

And it's not just pressing a button to buy and pressing a button to sell.

这就像经营一家小公司一样。

It's just like running a small business.

里面涉及行政管理、市场营销，还有各种采购事务。

There's administration involved, there's marketing involved, there's all these, you're buying something.

需要了解和处理的事情太多了。

So there's so many things to know and do.

要写交易日志、跟踪每笔交易，还要处理税务问题。

There's journaling, there's tracking your trades, there's doing your tax rate.

如果你把它当成生意来看待，意识到这些环节的重要性，就更可能认真对待，而不是盲目冲进去——很多人就是这么一头扎进去，结果亏得一塌糊涂。

If you come at it thinking of it as a business and recognizing all these components, then hopefully you'll take it more seriously and not just dive in because that's where people just dive in and they lose.

做生意有规矩，有风险控制，有固定流程，还要定期复盘，那种自由的幻想。

So business has rules, they have risk limits, they have routines, they review and that part about freedom.

每当我看到有人在海滩上交易，我就觉得特别荒唐。

It always kills me when I see people trading on the beach.

这到底是什么意思？

Like what does that even mean?

他们还在工作。

They're still working.

他们坐在那儿，盯着电脑，认真思考。

They're sitting there with their computer and they're thinking.

可不是在那儿空想沙滩度假的事儿。

It's not like they're just dreaming about the beach.

他们其实是在做交易。

They're like trading.

所以这种所谓的自由，根本不是那么回事。

So it's this whole idea of freedom.

实际上，这跟自由恰恰相反。

And in fact, it's the opposite of freedom.

对吧？

Right?

你需要掌控的东西太多了。

There's lots of things you need to control.

还有很多事情需要你去处理。

There's lots of things you need to manage.

所谓的自由，你知道的。

And freedom, you know?

是啊。

Yeah.

你说到点子上了。

You said it.

所谓的优势，不只是拥有那种积极的预期，更重要的是能坚持执行下去的自律。

It's the edge, which is not just having that positive expectancy to it, but also having just the discipline to execute it.

为什么这个自律的部分偏偏最难呢？

Why why is that discipline component just the the harder part?

因为听起来好像，你有优势，哦，我有优势。

Because it it seems like, you know, the edge, Oh, I have an edge.

我有优势。

I have an edge.

这里有个正期望值。

There's a positive EV here.

但你觉得，为什么执行起来的自律反而是最难的部分？

But why do you think that the discipline to execute on it is that hard part?

我觉得，问题出在情绪这一块。

Well, I think that is that emotional side of things.

对吧？

Right?

执行的能力。

The ability to execute.

大多数失败都不是因为不够聪明，或者策略不对，而是因为缺乏情绪上的韧性，没法持续有效地交易。

You know, most failures are execution failures, not lack of intelligence or lack of a a strategy, because they just don't have that emotional resilience to be able to trade it consistently and effectively.

所以，关键还是要慢慢建立起认知和觉察，搞清楚自己为什么这么做，这样自律才能一点一点培养起来，对吧？

So that's where, again, building up understanding, awareness, understanding why you're doing what you're doing, And then discipline can be built over time, right?

这不是一句话就能解决的事，比如‘你现在就开始自律吧’——哪有这么简单。

It's not something where you can just say, are you going to be disciplined now?

首先，你得有个策略，写下来，把每条规则都搞清楚。

First of all, you need a strategy, you need to document it, you need to understand the rules exactly.

然后得养成好习惯，这才是真正的自律。

Need to have Then you need to build good habits, which is the discipline.

比如说，每天早上我做什么，有什么检查清单。

It's like, okay, in the morning, I'm going to do this and this is my checklist.

一天结束之后，我怎么复盘我的交易。

After the day's over, this is how I'm going to review my trades.

这些事我都得按部就班地做。

This is what I'm to do this.

但这些事，没人愿意提。

And that's work that people don't talk about.

这又是其中一个不太舒服的真相，对吧？

Again, that's one of those hard truths, right?

没人愿意告诉你，你这其实是在经营一门生意。

No one wants to tell you you're running a business here, right?

我当时以为，只要买进就行，比特币会直冲云霄，我就能一夜暴富，对吧？

It's like, I thought I just had to buy and you guys are the Bitcoin was going to go to the moon and I was going be rich, right?

确实是这样。

It's yeah.

说起来还挺可笑的。

And it's it's like, funny.

对吧？

Right?

就连那些大家熟知的最成功的交易员，他们谈到自己的收益时，真正的专业交易者一年能有两位数的回报就已经算很成功了。

Because even when you when you hear about the most successful traders out there that people are aware of, and they talk about their returns, like the the true traders, you know, they have double digit returns in a year.

对吧？

Right?

他们自己都觉得这已经很了不起了。

And there's and they consider themselves successful.

那你凭什么觉得，没经验、没知识、没纪律，就能赚一千 percent？这简直太荒唐了。

And why you think you can make a thousand percent return and without any experience or or knowledge or discipline, then it's it's just funny.

对吧？

Right?

但是

But

期望值太高了。

Unrealistic expectations.

没错。

Yeah.

确实如此。

Yeah.

你之前提到，导师和教练不一样，导师主要是向你展示他们的交易体系和策略。

So I mean, you you had you said that having a mentor versus a coach, a mentor is there to kind of show you their system and strategy.

比如，一个交易者如果还没搞清楚自己的系统，那你得考虑自己的性格是否和所选策略匹配。

So if, let's say a trader, they just don't, they don't know their system yet, you talk about how your personality really needs to be congruent with the strategy you're trading.

那如果性格和策略不匹配，会怎么样？

So what happens when there's a mismatch?

也许你正在向一位导师学习，但他的策略根本不适合你。

Maybe you're learning from a mentor and that their strategy just doesn't work for you.

那一个人该怎么找到属于自己的交易系统和优势呢？

So how can someone go about finding their system and edge?

是的，我觉得首先非常重要的是去研究不同的交易者和不同的方法，对吧？

Yeah, well, I think first of all, it's really important to study different traders and different methodologies, right?

就我自己来说，当我读比尔·威廉姆斯的书时，立刻就觉得：对，这说得通，而且让我很兴奋。

I know for myself, when I read Bill Williams' book, it automatically It was like, Okay, this makes sense to me and this is exciting.

同样，有些人读了坎·斯利姆的书，或者研究价值投资，也会觉得特别有共鸣。

Like, likewise, some people are gonna read about can slim or they're gonna read about value investing or they're gonna And that resonates with them.

比如说，如果你是个会计师，特别喜欢分析资产负债表和损益表，那你可能更适合价值型或基本面交易；而如果一个人逻辑性强，是视觉型学习者，喜欢技术分析，那方向就完全不同。

Let's say you're an accountant and you really love analyzing balance sheets and P and Ls, you might be more geared towards value fundamental trading or fundamental investing as opposed to someone that's really analytical and loves as a visual learner and they love the technical side of things.

但很多人一上来就直接进入某种交易风格，却从没想过这到底适不适合自己。

But a lot of people, they jump into trading into a style without ever considering whether or not it's right for them.

对吧？

Right?

而且必须符合你的性格。

And it must fit your temperament.

还得适合你的日程安排。

It must fit your schedule.

很多人想做日内交易，可他们都有全职工作。

Like a lot of people want a day trade and they have full time jobs.

这根本就是不现实的。

Like it's just literally impossible.

对吧？

Right?

还有压力和资金管理的问题，对吧？

And then the whole thing about stress and money management, right?

你能承受多大的压力？

Like, much stress can you take?

有些人喜欢全力押注，愿意承担高风险，也能扛得住亏损。

There's some people that love going all in and they're willing to take big risks and they can take it handle a drawdown.

还有些人，只要一亏到10%，情绪就彻底崩溃了。

And there's other people that can't even handle a 10% drawdown without, having an emotional breakdown.

所以总的来说，我第一步总是先研究一堆交易方法，然后找一个让你觉得对胃口的。

So anyway, so that's the first thing I always do is like study a bunch of trading methodologies, and then find something that resonates with you.

也不用完全照搬，举个例子，就像艺术家一样，对吧？

And it doesn't have to be exact, Like I I would say an example would be like an artist, right?

很多人会研究大师的作品，比如莫奈、高更，或者别的谁。

So a lot of people study the masters, right?

他们模仿这些风格，不断练习，直到慢慢融合出一套真正适合自己的独特方式。

They look at Monet, they look at Gauguin, they look at whoever, and they practice their styles until they sort of figure out they blend something together that really works for them and it's their own style.

交易也是一样的道理。

And it's the same thing with trading.

多看看不同的交易方法，试一试，你就会发现：不对，这个让我感觉特别别扭。

Review a bunch of training methodologies, try some and you'll see like, no, this isn't making me feel good.

我见过太多人明明性格不适合，却非要去做日内交易。

But I've seen so many people that are day traders that they shouldn't be day trading because of their personality and their stuff.

如果你的交易风格和你的性格不匹配，那就会犯下各种错误，对吧？

And if you have a mismatch, like why it's important, if not aligned with your strategy, then you're going to make all those mistakes, right?

因为这算是个起点——很多人可能很有纪律，也能坚持执行，但如果和自己的策略不匹配，还是会引发一些他们根本控制不了的问题。

Because that's sort of a starting point, that if a lot of people, they might even have discipline and be able to do things, but if they're not aligned to their strategy, it still can then trigger different things that they're just not able to manage it.

真正最好的策略，是在你感到不安、日子艰难的时候也能坚持下去的那个。

Again, the best strategy is one that you can follow when you're uncomfortable and when times are tough.

这句话太棒了。

I love that.

这句话太棒了。

I love that.

确实如此。

Yeah.

明确这个时间周期特别重要。

It's it's so important to define that time frame.

你在这次访谈里也提到，你现在更偏向于长期周期，而不是短期交易。

And you said even in this interview that right now you're working on a longer term time frame versus short term.

但我读你那本书的时候笑得不行。

But I cracked up when I was reading your book.

你说有些人以为自己是在做短线交易。

You said, some people think they're on a short timeframe.

他们本来想赚个快钱，结果最后变成了长期投资者。

They'll take a scalp, but then they end up turning into the long term investor.

现在他们转而关注长期策略了。

Now they're working a long timeframe.

所以这真的特别关键，对吧？

So, but that's why it's so important, right?

在开仓之前就得先把时间框架定清楚。

To define that prior to ever taking the trade.

是的。

Yeah.

而且还得坚持住，对吧？

And sticking to it, right?

所以这就是交易者的一个问题，人性就是我们总想证明自己是对的。

So that's, and again, one the problems with traders, our human nature is that we want to be right.

对吧？

Right?

很多人刚开始交易时，因为网上信息混乱，总觉得每笔交易都该赢，理由还特别奇怪，对吧？

So the idea is, so a lot of people, they start trading and again, with all the misinformation out there that they think every trade works for some bizarre reason, right?

其实我们都清楚，一个优秀的交易员胜率可能也就55%。

Again, we all know that, a good trader might have a 55% win rate.

也就是说，有45%的交易是亏的，但希望这些亏损都尽量小。

So that means 45% of their trades are going to be losses and hopefully small losses.

总想证明自己对、想掌控一切，可市场本来就是不可控的，这导致很多人贸然开仓。

Having that need for it to be right, and need to have control where it s an uncontrollable environment causes a lot of people to put on a trade.

只要不平仓，就觉得自己没输，还没错，对吧？

And then as long as they don't close a trade, consider it still, I haven't lost, I'm not wrong yet, right?

迟早会回本的，到时候就能赚钱了。

It'll come back and I'll make money eventually.

他们就这么一直拿着一堆股票，一拿就是二十年。

And they're sitting there with a bunch of stocks they've held for twenty years.

根本就没涨回来。

Never came back.

对吧？

Right?

没平仓就不算亏。

Only a loss if it's realized.

对吧？

Right?

他们就是这么想的。

That's what they're thinking.

我们回头再聊策略和执行策略之间的区别。

So we'll get back to the the strategy versus the discipline to follow it.

你提到过，交易中最大的风险其实是交易者的情绪状态。

You've said one of the biggest risks in trading is just the trader's emotional state.

交易者可以养成哪些日常习惯，来更好地管理自己的情绪状态？

What are routines or habits that traders can take to help really manage the emotional state?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得第一点，就是我们之前说的觉察，对吧？

So I think the first thing, and that's what we talked about awareness, right?

首先要清楚自己当下到底在经历什么，对吧？

The first thing is to be aware of what is actually happening to you, right?

很多人整天疯狂交易，结果一天下来亏了钱。

So a lot of people just like, they'll trade like crazy during the day and they'll end up losing money on the day.

如果你问他们：你干了什么？

If you ask them like, What did you do?

他们会说：天啊，我完全被情绪牵着走，做了些莫名其妙的事。等到晚上复盘交易时，才惊觉：我干嘛要开这个仓？

It's like, Oh my God, I was just caught up in the emotional side and just doing things that And then if they review their trades at the end of the day and see, Okay, Oh my God, why did I even enter there?

根本说不通，对吧？

It doesn't even make sense, right?

理解，但你

Understanding But you

你说的不只是记录交易，还要记录交易时的情绪状态，对吧？

say don't just journal the trades, but you say journal your emotional awareness during the trades as well, right?

这是凯文。

This is Kevin.

希望到目前为止你享受了这期节目。

We hope you're enjoying this episode so far.

如果喜欢，花几秒钟留下一条评论吧。

If you are, take a second to leave a comment.

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We read them all and truly care about what you think.

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好了，我们继续回到与嘉宾的对话。

Now, back to the chat with our guest.

对。

Right.

而且当你开始有这种觉察时，未必非得写日记，甚至只是跟自己说说话也行，对吧？

And that's and and again, as you start to become aware, then it may not even be journaling, but even talking to yourself, right?

比如，天哪，我知道这是错失恐惧驱动的交易，对吧？

Like, oh my god, I know this is a FOMO trade, right?

我知道我不该这么做。

And I know I shouldn't be doing that.

这样你就能开始命名自己的情绪，明白自己真正想要的是什么。

So you can start to name the emotions you're having and understand where you're wanting to go.

当你逐渐积累这些认知，了解自己的行为模式和触发点后，时间久了就能识别出来，并做出相应调整。

And as you build up that knowledge and understand those behaviors that you have and the triggers that you have, then over time, can start to recognize them and adjust accordingly.

同时，建立一些有助于减轻这些触发因素和情绪影响的固定流程，对吧？

Again, having also routines that help you reduce the impact of those triggers and the emotions you're having, right?

所以，这就是为什么有些人需要写日记，而另一些人则可能需要去接受心理咨询。

So that's where, again, the journaling and some people need to actually go to therapy, right?

有些东西，比如你从小被灌输的信念，或者你经历过的创伤，如果不正视它们，你根本不可能成为成功的交易员，明白吗？

Like the best thing, some things, Some beliefs, the way you were brought up or traumas you might have, like literally, you will never be a successful trader unless you address those things, right?

因为你总会被触发，留下那些痕迹——不一定是极端表现，但很多交易员，当你静下来不和他们说话时，你想想，他们到底想证明什么？

Because you're always going to be triggered and have those sort of mark, not necessarily extremes, a lot of traders when you sit down and not talk to them, what are they trying to prove?

他们只是想让父母感到骄傲。

They're trying to make their parents feel good.

过去发生的很多细微小事，都在暗中驱动着他们的行为，所以必须花时间去面对、去理解这些根源。

There's all these subtle things that happened in their past that are driving their behavior, And really spending the time to address those and understand them.

慢慢地，你就会进入一种状态，建立起心理韧性。

And then over time you start to, you're in a position where you build resilience.

就像我之前说的，我知道我现在感受到什么，也清楚为什么会有这种感觉，所以我不会让情绪左右我的决定。

And like I said before, you know, okay, I'm feeling this, and I know why I'm feeling this, and I'm not going to let this drive my behavior.

这真的很重要——我们来谈一谈这个。

That's really- Let's

转到这个话题上。

segue into that.

信念，还有那种内心的对话，真的特别深刻，就像你在书里说的，我们其实不是在交易市场。

Beliefs and just that internal dialogue is really profound, what you said in the book, where you say, We're not trading the market.

我们是在交易自己对市场的看法。

We're trading our beliefs about the market.

你能给我们举几个交易者常有的限制性信念的例子吗？

So can you give us some examples of some limiting beliefs that traders commonly have?

是的。

Yeah.

这不仅仅是交易你对市场的看法。

And it's not just trading your beliefs about the market.

更是交易你对自己的看法，对吧？

It's trading your beliefs that you have yourself, right?

比如，一些常见的限制性信念是，你必须拼命工作才能赚到钱，对吧？

So for example, some common limiting ones might be you have to work hard in order to make money, right?

很多人就是被这种想法困在了日内交易里。

That's where a lot of people get caught up in day trading.

他们觉得必须每天盯着屏幕八个小时，不断做决策，这儿那事儿都得管。

They feel like they need to be at their screen eight hours a day, and they need to be making decisions, they need to do this and that.

他们认为这才是赚钱的唯一方式，可要是他们能退一步，回头看看自己的交易，就会发现：如果当初只是拿着那个单子持有一周，收益能是现在短线交易的五倍。

And they think that's the only way I'm going to make lots of money, as opposed to if they just step back and look at their trades and say, if I had to just held on to that trade for a week, I would have made five times that I did on that scalp or that short term day trade.

这就是一个典型的限制性信念，对吧？

And so that's an example of a limiting belief, right?

另一个常见的问题是，有些人觉得机会无穷无尽，也有人觉得机会非常有限，对吧？

Another one common is that, lot of people have feel there's some people feel there's unlimited opportunities and some people feel there's limited opportunities, right?

如果你带着机会有限的心态进场，就会错失很多机会。

So if you come to the market with limited that limitation mindset, then you're gonna miss opportunities.

你不敢出手，总在等那个完美的交易，或者别的什么理想时机。

You're not gonna and you're gonna be scared to take things or you're waiting for the right to perfect trade or whatever.

对吧？

Right?

但如果你的心态是富足的、相信机会很多的，那对市场的应对方式就会完全不同。

But, you know, again, a mindset of abundance and opportunity gives you a better approach to the market.

对吧？

Right?

交易者该怎么把这种限制性信念转变成你刚才说的那种积极信念呢？

How do traders take that limiting belief then and say, look, let's turn this into an empowering belief that you discussed?

他们具体该怎么做呢？

How do they go about doing that?

这可不只是关于交易的事。

And this isn't just about trading.

这其实是关于整个人生的，对吧？

This is just about life, right?

很多人一生都带着很消极的自我认知。

And that there's so many people that go through life with a very negative mindset, right, about themselves.

你想想，人是有感情、有情绪、有感知的。

You listened, like humans, they have feelings, they have emotions, they have perceptions.

如果你真的在倾听，人也是有想法的，对吧？

And if you're listening, and they have thoughts, right?

这些想法其实是你跟自己对话时冒出来的，对吧？

And these thoughts come to you through dialogue with yourself, right?

所以如果你留意自己内心的对话——不管是生活中还是交易中，比如在交易时你可能会想：‘又是笔蠢交易，我干嘛这么做？我真是个傻瓜，根本不会交易，干脆别干这行了’之类的。

So if you listen to your self talk, and you listen to the dialogues you're having, And again, whether that's just generally in life or with regard to trading, like in trading, you might be saying, Oh, this is another stupid trade.

我怎么会干这种事？

Why'd you do this?

你真是个笨蛋。

You're an idiot.

你根本不懂怎么交易。

You don't know how to trade.

你该退出这行了，诸如此类。

You got to get out of this business, whatever.

很多人对自己说话的语气，比对别人刻薄一百倍，总是消极又贬低自己。

So a if lot of people talk to themselves, like they would never talk to anyone else, but they just very negative and self deprecating.

所以关键还是要回到这种觉察上来，对吧？

So thing is to start to, again, comes back to this awareness, right?

这时候，冥想和正念就派上用场了。

And this is where you get into stuff like meditation and mindfulness.

有些交易员可能会想去了解这些方法，往这个方向探索。

And some traders might want to investigate that and go down those routes.

但关键是，你要开始留意自己什么时候在进行消极的自我对话，然后把它换成积极的自我对话。

But the idea is that, yeah, start to recognize when you're having negative self talk and replace it with positive self talk.

而且很多这些方法都跟你的交易规则有关，对吧？

And a lot of these are also about your rules, right?

比如，要想成为成功的交易员，我必须做到这些、这些和这些，然后时不时提醒自己这一点，对吧？

Like in order to be a successful trader, I need to do this, this, this and this, and remind yourself of that, right?

如果你做了不符合规则的事，别苛责自己，别消极地想‘我又犯错了’。

And if you're doing something that's not, it's like, okay, don't beat yourself up about it and be negative to say, okay, I made that mistake.

而是承认：我知道这次是因为这样才出错的，下次我不会再让它发生，对吧？

I acknowledge that, you know, this is something that is because of this and I'm not gonna let it happen again, right?

对，你说得对，交易员确实经常对自己特别苛刻。

Yeah, yeah, you emphasize that where traders, they beat themselves.

他们需要战胜的是自己，而不是市场。

They gotta beat themselves, not necessarily the market.

即使交易者已经拥有优势，他们还是会毁掉自己。

But traders, they sabotage themselves even if they have an edge.

他们之所以毁掉自己，是因为总想着打败市场，而不是向内看，战胜自己的心魔，专注于那些积极的信念。

They sabotage themselves because they're trying to beat the market rather than, look, you got to look inwardly and you got to beat yourself and focus on those empowering beliefs.

你提到的一个关键点，就是如何处理你的盈利单，尽量让盈利最大化。

And one of those that you mentioned is really with your winners trying to maximize those.

最近我也在努力改进一件事：当你有盈利单且走势对你有利时，与其过早止盈，不如考虑加仓。

So one thing that I've been trying to work on improve on here recently too, is that you just, when you have winners and they're trending in your favor, you suggest, hey, maybe add to the winner instead of cutting it, instead of taking profits early.

从长期成功来看，你觉得真正学会加仓盈利单、最大化收益有多重要？

How important do you think it is for the long term success to really start, you know, adding to your winners and trying to maximize those?

是的，但这不是必须的。

Yeah, well, it's not necessary.

再说一遍，你采用哪种交易风格，要看市场环境如何。

Again, the style of trading that you do depends on what the market environment is, right?

在趋势强劲的市场里，该加仓的时候就加仓；该及时止盈的时候就止盈。

So there's a time to add to winners when we're in a strongly trending market and there's a time to take your profits sooner.

不过，如果我们退一步看，问题往往出在不该止损的时候舍不得割，该止盈的时候又太早跑掉。

If we step back for a sec, though, the idea of taking not taking losses soon enough, and taking profits too soon.

这两种行为，是毁掉账户最常见的原因。

Those are two common behaviors that destroy accounts.

而它们背后，都是同一个心理在作祟——非得证明自己是对的。

And both of them are driven by needing to be right.

对吧？

Right?

这一点我们之前聊过，对吧？

So that we talked about, right?

你死扛亏损单，是因为不愿承认自己错了。

So you're holding on to the losers because you don't want to admit that you're wrong.

而一有盈利就急着平仓，是因为觉得‘我必须赢’，对吧？

And you're getting out of profits early because, oh, I've got to win, right?

赢了交易就别忘了夸自己一句。

Are pat yourself on the back, you got a winning trade.

多拿一会儿的想法。

The idea of holding longer.

回头复盘交易的时候，可以看看两周前的那笔单子，想想要是多持有一段时间，结果会怎么样。

And again, this can come out when you analyze your trades, look at your trades, then two weeks later, at that same trade and see how it would have panned out if you had held it longer.

这些想法听起来挺有道理，因为你得说服自己，这么做才是对的。

And these are things that were okay, because you need to convince yourself that that's the right behavior.

但多拿或者加仓这个思路。

But that idea of holding longer or adding.

你看过去四五个月的市场，波动很大，根本没趋势。

So again, like if you look at the markets for the last, you know, whatever, four or five months, they've been just volatile, not trending.

明白吧？

Alright?

在这种行情里加仓，很可能让你亏不少钱。

So adding to winners probably would have cost you a lot of money.

对吧？

Right?

因为今天涨，明天就跌。

Because it's one day it's up, next day it's down.

今天涨，明天就跌。

One day it's up, one next day it's down.

所以加仓赢家反而会是完全相反的做法，而过早止盈才是正确的选择。

So adding to a winner would have been the complete opposite approach and not taking profit sooner would have also been the wrong approach.

这就是要退一步看，不仅要符合自己的交易策略，更要让策略适应市场，对吧？

So this is that idea of stepping back and not only being aligned with your strategy, but having a strategy that's aligned with the market, right?

而这一点需要很长时间才能培养出来，新手往往根本没这个意识，对吧？

And that's where, again, that takes a long time to develop and a mindset that people coming into trading don't necessarily have, right?

他们总觉得：‘这策略我得一辈子照着用，肯定能赚钱。’

They're like, Oh, this this is a strategy I gotta follow forever, and it's gonna make me money.

其实不是这样的。

It's like, no.

总会有那么一天，策略不灵了，因为市场环境变了，那时候你最好赶紧调整，或者先退出，等市场恢复再回来。

There's gonna come a time when it's not working because the environment doesn't allow it, and you better change or step aside until the market is far.

对。

Yeah.

放下你的自尊心。

Get rid of that ego.

放下自尊心，还有偏见。

Get rid of that ego, you say, and the bias.

别自己拖自己后腿。

And don't self sabotage.

交易者常常在亏钱时抱有幻想，赚钱时又变得害怕，结果就像你说的，自己把自己搞砸了。

Yeah, traders oftentimes will get They get hopeful when we're in the red and then get fearful when we're in the green and then end up, you know, self sabotaging it, as you say, where we gotta beat ourselves.

就像彼得·罗宾斯说的，交易者要战胜的不是市场，而是自己。

As Peter Robbins says, Traders, gotta beat ourselves not necessarily think about, Oh, we gotta beat the market.

你提到的那份热情，确实是交易中不可或缺的，它就像是这场交易之旅的血液——也就是你的那本书《交易者的旅程》。

So that passion that you've talked about, the passion being essential in trading, seems like it's the bloodstream really of the sustainability of this journey, The Trader's Journey, which is your book.

那里头有太多东西值得学了。

There's so much to learn there.

我的意思是，你觉得这种热情最终会形成一个完整的循环吗？

I mean, do you agree that you think passion ultimately will go full circle here?

它是不是推动人们迈向下一个阶段、让你能持续走五十年的关键？

Is what's gonna drive people to that next level and keep you in a sustainable journey for fifty years?

是什么让你一直保持兴趣，直到今天还在不断学习？

What's kept you engaged and still learning even to this day?

是的，绝对是热情。

Yeah, definitely passion.

你得真心喜欢做生意。

You got to have a love for business.

而且，很多人都是被这一点驱动的。

And, know, again, a lot of people are driven to that.

他们把热情和赚钱的欲望搞混了。

They confuse passion with the need to make money.

所以要把这些分开来看。

So separate things.

你得真正喜欢交易，对吧？

So you you got to like trading, right?

你得喜欢分析股票、看图表，如果你不喜欢这些，根本坚持不下去。

You got to like analyzing stocks, you got to like looking at charts, got to like, if you don't like it, you're not going to do it.

我觉得很多人其实有个误解，你知道的。

I think a lot of people are, know, again, there's a misconception, right?

很多人一直在找所谓的终极秘诀。

Like a lot of people are looking for, say, the Holy Grail.

当你真正去寻找那个终极秘诀时，迟早会明白，根本不存在什么终极秘诀。

So if you look at the Holy Grail, at some point, you're going to realize there is no Holy Grail.

你要么放弃，要么真正爱上交易本身，而不是执着于寻找什么终极秘诀，或者幻想能挖到彩虹尽头的宝藏，对吧？

And either you give up or you start to, you you are passionate about trading as a trader, not as a trying to find this Holy Grail or trying to find the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, right?

很多人是被贪婪驱动的，但这种动力根本撑不了多久，你知道的。

And that's where a lot of people are driven by that greed, and that's, you know, it's not going to sustain you, right?

有些人就是不停地往账户里砸钱，砸了又砸，一直亏、一直亏，不管怎样都不停手。他们不是因为热爱交易而学，也不从错误中吸取教训，反而一遍遍重复同样的错。

Because you're going to keep, like I've known traders that just keep pouring money into their accounts, and pouring money into their accounts, and keep losing, losing, losing, and no matter what, it's like, and they're driven not by the passion to learn to trade, and they're not learning lessons and repeating the same mistakes over and over again.

他们就等着那一笔单子能让他们翻身，对吧？

They're just waiting for that one trade that's going to make them the money, right?

如果他们能冷静下来想想，这种想法有多不现实——取决于你交易的东西，根本不可能实现。

And if they actually step back and looked at how realistic that is, depending on what you trade, impossible to happen, right?

你永远补不回之前亏掉的那些钱。

You'll never make up all those losses.

还有些人干脆越亏越敢赌，风险越加越大，指望哪天运气好赢一把，但结果往往是亏得更多。

Or what they end up doing is they keep on taking more and more risk, more and more risk, and until maybe they'll luck out and have a good trade, but chances are they've lost more.

马克的加仓策略。

Mark's Gale approach.

马克的加仓。

Mark's Gale.

不断加倍下注，就是这样。

Keep doubling the size and that, yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

所以归根结底，关键是你得真正热爱这件事，把钱看作副产品，这正是我从你这里听到的。

So again, it's beating yourself really, and having a love for the game and money being a byproduct of that's what I'm hearing from you.

你的书叫《交易者的旅程》，那你觉得这个旅程真的有终点吗？还是说我们永远都在路上？

So your book called The Trader's Journey, I mean, do you believe that the journey ever truly ends or we're always on a trader's journey?

是的，任何行业都一样，对吧？

Yeah, well, think same thing with any other profession, right?

时代在变，就像你说的，从70年代到现在，想想发生了多少变化。

As time changes, and look at me, like you said, from the 70s to now, think about all of those changes that are happening.

就连过去六个月，从人工智能的角度来看，交易领域也发生了翻天覆地的变化。

And even in the last six months, from an AI perspective, what's happening from a trading perspective, right?

如果你不持续学习，就会被甩在后面。

So if you're not learning, you're falling behind.

如果你不适应，就会落后。

And if you're not adapting, you're falling behind.

而且，这正是它让人兴奋的地方。

And plus, that's what makes it exciting.

就是能接触到新的工具。

This is seeing a new tool.

现在有很多年轻人在开发新工具，充分利用这些新技术。

There's a lot of young guys out there that are developing new tools that are taking advantage of these new technologies.

很刺激，对吧？

Exciting, right?

看到他们做什么、怎么调整，真的很有趣。

It's neat to see what they're doing and adapting.

所以，没错，这正是乐趣和热情的一部分。

So yeah, that's part of the fun and part of the passion.

但你确实得跟上变化。

But yeah, you need to adapt to it.

你可以把它想象成一条鲨鱼。

Think of it like a shark.

如果它们不游动，就会死，对吧？

If they don't swim, they die, right?

所以你必须不断前进，持续学习，不断适应，还要热爱。

So you got you gotta keep moving and keep learning and keep adapting and Love

热爱它，真心热爱。

it, love it.

彼得，如果你能给交易者一个最真实的道理，一个你花了数十年才彻底明白的真相，那会是什么？

So Peter, if you could give traders one truth, one hard truth that you took decades to fully understand, what would it be?

再说一遍，我觉得我们刚才聊的这些，其实没有哪一条是唯一关键的，但如果你想找一个切实可行的交易框架，对吧？

Again, I think all the things we've talked about, like, there's no one thing per se, but I think anyone listening who wants sort of a realistic framework for trading, right?

这些其实就是所有经验的总结。

And this is, you know, all of the lessons, right?

比如怎么把交易当生意来做，怎么选一个适合你性格的交易风格，建立能坚持的规则，培养自我认知，并在压力下果断执行。

It's like how to treat trading as a business, how to choose a style that fits your personality, building rules you can follow, and developing that self awareness and execute under pressure.

这些都是我亲身学到的经验，也是《交易者之路》想要传达的核心内容。

That's lessons I've learned, and that's what The Trader's Journey is designed to deliver.

再说一遍，交易本身并不简单，对吧？

So that idea of it's not And again, trading isn't It's hard, right?

它涉及很多方面，你得全身心投入，从中不断学习。

And there's lots of pieces that are involved, and commit to it, learn from it.

我想其中一个关键教训是，当我谈到交易者的优势时，很多人会问：我的优势到底是什么？

And I guess one of the key lessons is the importance of when I talk about a Trader's Edge, A lot of people think, Oh, what's my Edge?

我的优势是什么？

What's my Edge?

他们觉得：好吧，我只要抓住这个交易形态，那就是我的优势。

It's like, Okay, I'm going to buy this setup.

其实那个形态本身并不是优势，对吧？

The setup is my Edge, right?

真正的优势就像一枚硬币的两面，缺一不可。

But the setup is two pieces or the edge is two sides to the coin, right?

一个是具有正期望值的交易策略。

One is a strategy that has a positive expectation.

另一个是很多人忽视、从不花时间去打磨的：你执行交易的能力。

And the other one that a lot of people ignore and don't spend time on is your ability to trade it, right?

而这种执行能力，关键在于你的觉察力，以及调整你的心理状态、信念——所有这些因素都会让你更容易适应市场，稳定盈利。

And that ability to trade it really comes down to that awareness and making changes to you, your psychology and your beliefs and all of those things that are making make it easier for you to adapt and trade profitably and consistently, right?

彼得，这场对话真是受益匪浅。

Well, Peter, this has been an incredible conversation.

过去五十年里积累的智慧，全都浓缩在刚才的谈话中了。

There's so much wisdom here over the last fifty years.

感谢你抽出时间，把这段交易旅程中的领悟分享给我们每一位交易者。

I appreciate you taking the time to share the journey lessons perspective with all of us traders.

如果喜欢他的书，也喜欢今天的对话，别忘了点赞和留言。

Like the video, leave us a comment if you've enjoyed his book and enjoyed the conversation.

对了，彼得，听众们想了解你，该去哪里找到你？

Now, for those listening, where can they find you, Peter?

另外，他们在哪里能买到这本书呢？

And also, where can they find the book?

对。

Right.

这本书嘛，最明显的渠道当然是亚马逊，不过其他几家大型书商应该也都有售。

So the book is, I guess, obvious place would be Amazon, but I think a lot of the other big booksellers also have it available.

至于我本人，我在X上，那个叫什么来着？

And then for myself, I'm on X, and my my what do they call it?

关注账号是 prrobbins。

Your handler, whatever is prrobbins.

就像我说的，X上确实有不少负面的东西，社交媒体嘛，都这样。

And like I say, one of the things about X, there's a lot of negative things about social media.

但说到交易圈，如果你把那些骗子和假大师剔除掉，其实有一个非常紧密、特别棒的社群，就像这个《与交易员对话》节目，我听过很多优质的播客，认识很多了不起的人。

But the one interesting thing about the trading community, if you take away sort of the scammers and the fake gurus or whatever, There's a really tight, great community, just like this Chat With Traders, I've got tons of great podcasts, tons of great people.

其实交易这行，根本没必要一个人单打独斗。

And that thing about trading doesn't need to be a solitary business.

外面有很多人愿意帮忙，也愿意跟你交流。

There's lots of people out there willing to help and willing to communicate with you.

这正是我最喜欢做的事。

And that's what I love doing.

我喜欢帮助新手交易者，甚至是有经验的交易者。

I like to help new traders or even experienced traders.

我在X平台上随时在线。

I'm available on X.

我的私信一直开着。

My DM is always open.

我也对这件事充满热情。

And I have a real passion for that as well.

这也是我写这本书的原因之一。

And that's part of the motivation for writing the book.

我只是看不下去，新手或者有经验的交易者还在不断亏钱，还抱着不切实际的期望。

Because I'm just I hate seeing new traders, or experienced traders continue to lose money and not and have all these unrealistic expectations.

所以我只想提供一些真正有用的东西，帮他们打下扎实的基础，早点走上正轨，别光听社交媒体上那些人瞎说，最后亏得一塌糊涂。

So I want to just provide something out there that gives them a solid foundation, and hopefully get them started quicker and on better footing than just listening to someone on social media and losing money.

你知道吗？我见过不少年轻人，从高中开始攒钱，打过好多份工，辛辛苦苦攒下的钱，结果第一笔交易就全亏光了。

You know, people have saved, I've seen young people where they saved up all their money from high school, all the jobs they've had, and literally lose it all on their first trade.

要是当时有人在旁边稍微带他们一把，这些事本来是可以避免的。

It's like, if they just had someone holding their hand a little bit, they might have avoided that.

对吧？

Right?

所以……

So

彼得，非常感谢你分享这些坦诚的真相，交易员们，如果你们还想听更多这样的真话，就去关注他在X上的动态吧。

Peter, thank you so much for sharing these hard truths, and follow them, Traders, if you wanna hear some more hard truths on X.

感谢你做客《与交易员聊天》。

Thank you for coming on Chat With Traders.

今天能请到你，真的非常开心。

It's been a real pleasure having you on.

谢谢，彼得。

Thank you, Peter.

谢谢你，凯文。

Thank you, Kevin.

本期《与交易员对话》就到这里了，但别担心，更多真正有市场洞察、毫无炒作的节目马上就会上线。

You've reached the end of this episode of Chat With Traders, but rest assured, there are more episodes loaded with real market insight and zero hype on the way soon.

想及时收到新节目更新，记得订阅播客，也欢迎给我们打分和写评价，我们非常感激。

So to stay updated with great new release, subscribe to the podcast, and we'd love it if you'd leave a rating and review.

下次《与交易员对话》再见。

We'll catch you next time on Chat With Traders.