Stripe 2025年年度信函

今天我们中断一下平时轻松活泼的编程内容，为您完整呈现Stripe公司2025年年度信件，由我亲自朗读。

We're interrupting your usual cheeky pine programming today to bring you Stripe's '20 twenty five annual letter read in full by me.

不是AI版的我。

Not AI me.

完整版。

Full.

真正的我。

Proper me.

正常节目将在周四恢复，届时我将邀请AI芯片公司MatEx的创始人Rainer Pope来到直播间。

Normal service will come back on Thursday when I'll be welcoming Rainer Pope, founder of AI chip company, MatEx, to the booth.

现在回到这封信。

But on to the letter.

去年，通过Stripe运营的企业总交易额达到1.9万亿美元，较2024年增长了34%，相当于全球GDP的约1.6%。

Last year, businesses running on Stripe generated 1,900,000,000,000.0 in total volume, up 34% from 2024, an equivalent to roughly 1.6% of global GDP.

我们的可编程金融服务现已直接或通过平台支持超过500万家企业的运营，涵盖所有顶尖的AI公司、众多最大的蓝筹企业、90%的道琼斯工业平均指数成分股、大多数大型科技公司、80%的纳斯达克100指数成分股，以及大量新创初创企业。

Our programmable financial services now power more than 5,000,000 businesses directly or via platforms, including all the top AI companies, many of the largest blue chip companies, 90% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, most of the biggest tech companies, 80% of the Nasdaq 100, and a significant fraction of freshly minted startups.

现在有25%的特拉华州公司都是通过Stripe Atlas创建的。

25% of all Delaware corporations are now created with Stripe Atlas.

除了支付服务，这些企业还在使用Stripe通过账单和订阅管理、税务合规、欺诈预防、嵌入式金融、全球资金管理等功能加速增长。

Beyond payments, these businesses are using Stripe to accelerate their growth with billing and subscription management, tax compliance, fraud prevention, embedded finance, global treasury management, and much besides.

Link，最便捷的在线支付方式，如今已被超过2亿人使用。

Link, the easiest way to pay online, is now used by more than 200,000,000 people.

Stripe在2025年继续保持强劲盈利，使我们能够持续大力投资产品开发，过去一年推出了超过350项产品更新，并完成了多项收购。

Stripe remained robustly profitable in 2025, allowing us to continue investing heavily in product development with over 350 product updates over the last year as well as acquisitions.

自我们上一次更新以来，我们收购了Privy，它为超过1.1亿个可编程钱包提供支持；还收购了Metronome，它为OpenAI、Anthropic、Confluent和NVIDIA等公司使用的复杂按使用量计费模型提供支持。

Since our last update, we acquired Privy, which powers more than a 110,000,000 programmable wallets, and Metronome, which powers the complex usage based billing models used by companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Confluent, and Nvidia.

Metronome已加入我们的收入产品套件，该套件包括Stripe账单、发票、税务等服务，今年有望实现十亿美元的年化收入。

Metronome joins our revenue suite, comprising Stripe Billing, invoicing, tax, and more, which is on track to hit an annual run rate of a billion dollars this year.

总的来说，2025年是互联网经济强劲的一年，我们很高兴看到众多Stripe客户表现优异。

All in all, 2025 was a strong year for the Internet economy, and we're delighted to see so many of Stripe's customers doing well.

让我们谈谈我们称之为‘筛选机器’的东西。

Let's talk about what we've been dubbing the sorting machine.

从根本上说，竞争性市场就像一台筛选机器。

So at their heart, competitive markets are a sorting machine.

它根据顾客用钱包投票所决定的最具影响力的地方，引导利润、资本和人才流向那里。

They direct profits, capital, and talent to the places of greatest impact as discerned by customers voting with their wallets.

历史上，这种筛选是循序渐进的。

Historically, this sorting happened methodically.

通常需要数十年时间，一个家喻户晓的品牌才会被取代，或者一个新进入者才能达到有意义的规模。

It typically took decades for a household name to be unseated or for a new entrant to reach meaningful scale.

但如今，这台筛选机器运转得更快了。

But the sorting machine is now whirring faster.

赢家和输家被更快、更剧烈地确定下来。

Winners and losers are being anointed more quickly and more intensely.

如今，美国上市公司中利润最高的三分之一占据了总市值的三分之二，这是自1963年有数据以来的最高水平。

Today, the most profitable third of publicly listed companies in The United States accounts for two thirds of the total market capitalization, the highest chair since data began in 1963.

而这很大程度上是利润集中化的结果，而不仅仅是估值的提升。

And much of this is a story of profit concentration, not just valuations.

标普500指数中市值排名前10%的公司，如今贡献了指数总利润的约59%，这一比例高于近期历史水平。

The top 10% of the S and P 500 by market cap now accounts for roughly 59% of the index's total profits, which is elevated relative to recent history.

这在很大程度上是由行业内部的两极分化所驱动的。

Much of this is driven by bifurcation within industries.

例如，在零售业，过去三年美国实体零售销售额仅增长了5%，而同一时期电子商务销售额增长了30%，两者均为经通胀调整后的数据。

In retail, for example, US brick and mortar sales grew just 5% over the past three years, whereas e commerce sales grew 30% over the same period, both of those in inflation adjusted terms.

在航空业，美国航空、达美航空和联合航空在过去十年中均提升了其在行业收入和利润中的份额。

In air travel, the big three of American, Delta, and United all increased their share of industry revenues and profits over the past decade.

它们本来就已经规模庞大。

They're big to start with.

而到2025年，达美航空和联合航空几乎包揽了美国航空业的所有利润。

And now Delta and United accounted for nearly all US airline profits in 2025.

在医疗保健领域，医院保险公司的利润份额自2019年以来显著收缩，但医疗科技公司预计到2029年将实现超过1100亿美元的EBITDA。

In health care, hospital insurer profit shares have contracted significantly since 2019, but health tech is on track to exceed a 110,000,000,000 in EBITDA by 2029.

每个行业都有其独特的动态，但趋势是清晰的。

Each sector has its own particular dynamics, but the pattern is clear.

一批公司正在拉开差距。

A cohort of companies is pulling away.

在整个经济中，对软件、计算机和数据中心投资的需求推动了2025年近一半的美国GDP增长，并可能很快成为美国增长的主体。

Economy wide, demand for software, computers, and data center investment drove nearly half of all US GDP growth in 2025 and will likely soon be a majority of all US growth.

根据我们从2025年在Stripe上启动的商业实体中已掌握的信息，这是一群非凡的企业。

And based on what we can already tell from the set of businesses started on Stripe in 2025, a remarkable cohort.

目前没有任何迹象表明这种筛选机制会很快放缓。

There are no signs of the sorting machine slowing down anytime soon.

2025年，加入Stripe的新公司数量创历史新高，其中超过一半（57%）位于美国以外。

In 2025, many more new companies joined Stripe than ever before, with more than half of them, 57%, based outside The US.

这一新群体是我们见过的绩效最高、发展最快的，平均增速比2024年群体快约50%。

This new cohort is by far the highest performing and fastest moving we've ever seen, growing around 50% faster than the 2024 cohort on average.

在上线三个月内达到1000万美元年经常性收入（ARR）的公司数量是2024年群体的两倍。

The number of companies reaching 10,000,000 in ARR within three months of launch was double that of the 2024 cohort.

这似乎是本行业更大范围扩张与加速的一部分。

This seems to be part of a larger expansion and acceleration in our industry.

经过多年的相对平静，2025年12月发布的iOS应用数量同比增长了60%。

After years of relative calm, the number of iOS apps released in December 2025 jumped by 60% year over year.

有人该去查查App Store审核团队的睡眠评分了。

Someone should check on the App Store review team's sleep scores.

就连代码生产也在加速。

Even code production is accelerating.

之前几年GitHub推送量年均增长约10%到12%，但在2024年第三季度到2025年第三季度之间，这一数字跃升了41%。

Pushes to GitHub, which grew roughly 10 to 12% in prior years, jumped 41% between q three twenty four and q three twenty five.

随着开发变得越来越容易，我们正在努力让Stripe的集成更加简单，包括为AI代理提供支持。

As building gets easier, we're working on making Stripe even simpler to integrate, including for the agents.

我们最近推出了可领取的Stripe沙盒，让你可以直接从Manus、Base 44、Replit和Vercel等AI编码工具中开始使用Stripe。

We recently introduced claimable Stripe sandboxes, which let you start using Stripe directly from your AI coding tools like Manus, Base 44, Replit, and Vercel.

当你完成v1版本、产品准备上线时，这个沙盒会自动转换为一个保留所有配置的正式Stripe账户。

And when you're done with v one and your product is ready to launch, that sandbox converts into a live Stripe account with its configuration intact.

已有超过十万个多沙盒通过这种方式创建。

More than a 100,000 sandboxes have already been created this way.

我们还在改进Stripe Atlas，这是全球最简便的企业注册方式，去年企业注册数量增长了41%。

We're also improving Stripe Atlas, the world's easiest way to incorporate a business, which saw a 41% increase in company formations last year.

Atlas旗下的公司更快实现了盈利。

Atlas companies are monetizing sooner.

2025年，20%的Atlas初创企业在30天内就找到了第一位客户，而2020年同期这一比例仅为8%。

In 2025, 20% of Atlas startups charted their first customer within thirty days, up from 8% for that same number in 2020.

当我们审视这些数据时，一个显而易见的问题是：2025年是偶然现象，还是新时代的开端？

As we look at these figures, there's an obvious question, is 2025 an anomaly or the beginning of a new regime?

时间会给出答案，但我们最合理的判断是，2025年的加速趋势标志着由大型语言模型进步所推动的创业与创造力的更大转折点的开始。

And time will tell, but our best guess is that the 2025 acceleration is the start of a larger inflection in entrepreneurship and creativity facilitated by advances in large language models.

我们已规划了雄心勃勃的改进路线图。

We have an ambitious road map of improvements planned.

Stripe将成为AI时代构建企业的最佳方式。

Stripe will be the best way to build a business in the era of AI.

现在，让我们谈谈企业如何日益默认走向全球化。

Now let's talk about how businesses are increasingly global by default.

对于有志于走向全球的企业来说，传统的做法曾是稳步的顺序推进。

For those with aspirations to go global, the conventional playbook used to be a steady sequential progression.

你先在国内取得成功，然后再拓展到海外。

You win at home, and then you push abroad.

可口可乐花了二十年才在古巴首次装瓶销售汽水，而麦当劳和星巴克则分别等待了二十七年和十六年，才在加拿大迎来他们的首批顾客。

It took Coca Cola twenty years to bottle its first soda in Cuba, while McDonald's and Starbucks waited twenty seven and sixteen years respectively to serve their first customers in Canada.

万维网出现后，免费服务往往一开始就全球发布，但它们的盈利机制仍需一段时间才能跟上。

After the arrival of the World Wide Web, free services tended to launch globally, but then their monetization machinery still operated on a time delay to catch up.

因此，当Facebook在2006年从仅限大学生的网络转变为公开平台时，任何有浏览器的人都可以注册账户，但有资金的人却不一定能投放广告。

So when Facebook changed from a college only network to a public platform in 2006, anyone with a browser could create an account, but anyone with money couldn't necessarily advertise.

直到2009年，也就是公司成立五年后，才支持国际货币。

Support for international currencies didn't arrive until 2009, five years after the company was founded.

至于谷歌，它在全球推出搜索产品后，直到次年二月才首次接受来自英国广告商的英镑付款——实际上那是一家经营活龙虾邮购业务的公司，不是玩笑。

For its part, Google only accepted its first payment in British pounds from an advertiser in The UK, which is actually a live lobster mail order firm, no joke, in February after launching its search product globally.

在过去几年里，这种逐国扩张的模式已经彻底瓦解。

Over the last few years, the country by country expansion model has just melted away.

新一代互联网企业的国内市场就是互联网本身。

The domestic market for a new generation of Internet businesses is the Internet itself.

你听说过的几乎所有AI产品，都在你听说过的每个国家里大受欢迎。

Nearly every AI product you've heard of is all the rage in every country you've heard of.

ChatGPT、Claude、Replit、Lovable、Base 44、Vercel、Cursor、Midjourney 等许多产品默认就是全球发布。

ChatGPT, Claude, Replit, Lovable, Base 44, Vercel, Cursor, Midjourney, and many more launched globally by default.

这不仅仅关乎来自国际用户长尾市场的增量收入。

And this isn't merely about incremental revenue from a long tail of international users.

在许多情况下，长尾部分才是主要的组成部分。

In many cases, the long tail is much of the dog.

在Stripe上，那些大部分收入来自国际市场的公司中，有30%的收入来自既非其本土市场、也非全球十大经济体的国家。

Of businesses on Stripe that earn most of their revenue internationally, 30% of that revenue comes from countries that are neither their home market nor one of the top 10 global economies.

而这主要得益于如今的基础设施，已不再让海外需求显得陌生。

And this is possible largely due to infrastructure that no longer makes foreign demand feel foreign.

去年，我们让企业能够同时在一百多个国家推出本地化的结账页面，包含本地化定价以最大化转化率、支持120多种支付方式，并内置本地税务合规功能。

Last year, we enabled businesses to launch a localized checkout in more than a 100 countries simultaneously complete with localized pricing to maximize conversion, more than a 120 payment methods, and local tax compliance supported out of the box.

有时，基础设施的改进要经过数十年才能感受到，但另一些时候，被压抑的需求却会在一夜之间显现。

Sometimes improved infrastructure is only felt after decades, but other times, pent up demand reveals itself overnight.

Gamma 是一家位于加利福尼亚的 AI 平台，已有七千万人用它来制作演示文稿。

Gamma is a California based AI platform used by 70,000,000 people to create presentations.

当他们成为首批接受印度UPI支付的Stripe用户时，他们在当月的印度收入就跃升了22%。

When they joined the first cohort of Stripe users to accept UPI payments in India, their Indian revenue jumped 22% in that very same month.

讽刺的是，受金融地理壁垒限制最严重的科技公司，往往是金融科技公司本身。

Ironically, the tech companies most constrained by barriers of financial geography have tended to be fintechs themselves.

在Chime推出十二年后，你仍然只能在美国境内开设新的Chime账户。

Twelve years after launching Chime, you can only open a new Chime account from inside The United States.

Newbank成立于2013年，在最初的六年里只服务巴西，过去六年才新增了两个国家。

Newbank, founded in 2013, served only Brazil for its first six years and added only two other countries in the last six.

而这些正是目前最成功的金融科技公司之一。

And these are some of the most successful fintechs out there.

即使在Stripe，我们的发卡产品在推出七年后的今天，也仅在22个国家可用。

Even at Stripe, our issuing product is available in only 22 countries some seven years after launch.

这比大多数情况都快，但还没达到我们理想的速度。

That's faster than most, but not as fast as we would like.

这种情况也在改变。

This is also changing.

最新的金融科技公司群体，比如Sling Money、Dollar App、Felix和Cast，从一开始就致力于打造全球化的金融应用。

The latest cohort of fintech companies, Sling Money, Dollar App, Felix, and Cast, to name just a few, are building global financial apps right out of the gate.

同样，去年我们推出了首个原生全球化产品——金融账户，企业可以用它来存储、发送和接收资金，上线第一天就覆盖了100多个国家的企业。

Similarly, last year, we launched our first globally native product, financial accounts, which business can use to hold, send, and receive funds, and we made it available to businesses in more than a 100 countries on day one.

这一进展在很大程度上得益于稳定币，因为其无国界特性使金融科技公司能够建立全球通用的基础设施。

And this progress is in large part due to stablecoins, where borderlessness allows fintechs to set up infrastructure that works everywhere.

默认全球化的金融服务，首次成为现实可能。

Global by default financial services are for the first time a real possibility.

现在我们来谈谈稳定币。

Now let's talk about stablecoins.

虽然现在是加密货币的寒冬，但却是稳定币的夏天。

It may be a crypto winter, but it's a stablecoin summer.

在稳定币交易量跟随加密资产价格波动了十年之后，去年出现了明显的分化。

After a decade of stablecoin volumes tracking the undulations of the crypto asset prices, last year saw a clear divergence.

2025年，比特币价格急剧下跌，目前较10月水平下跌了50%，但稳定币支付交易量翻了一番，达到约4000亿美元，其中约60%被估算为企业对企业（B2B）支付。

In 2025, the price of Bitcoin dropped precipitously and is now 50 percent down from October, but stablecoin payments volume doubled to around 400,000,000,000, 60% of which is estimated to represent b two b payments.

我们收购的稳定币协调平台Bridge，其交易量增长了四倍以上。

Bridge, the stablecoin orchestration platform we acquired, saw volume more than quadruple.

随着现实世界采用率持续加速，稳定币支付正悄然且不可阻挡地向前推进。

Stablecoin payments are marching quietly and inexorably forward as real world uptake continues apace.

这一增长得益于一系列新功能的推动。

This growth has been catalyzed by a raft of new capabilities.

如今，Y Combinator的创始人可以接收稳定币形式的投资，将它们存入Stripe金融账户，并用这些稳定币支付全球任何地方的首批工程师。

A Y Combinator founder can now receive funding in Stablecoins, hold them in a Stripe financial account, and use them to pay their first engineers who could be anywhere in the world.

正在利用稳定币拓展国际业务的企业，如今拥有了更好的工具，可将数字钱包直接嵌入其核心产品中。

Enterprises leaning on Stablecoins to expand internationally now have better tools to embed digital wallets directly into their core products.

通过Privy，Ramp和Deep等公司可以通过单一API，为托管和非托管模式提供易于使用的钱包，从而从第一天起就能构建完全全球化的产品。

With Privy, companies like Ramp and Deep have a single API to provision easy to use wallets in both custodial and noncustodial models, which allows fully global products to be built from day one.

加密货币与法币之间的互操作性也在迅速改善。

The interoperability between crypto and fiat is also rapidly improving.

今年四月，Bridge与Visa合作，推出了允许企业和消费者像使用其他卡片一样消费稳定币的卡片。

In April, Bridge partnered with Visa to introduce cards that allow businesses and consumers to spend their stablecoins just like any other card.

付款从稳定币余额中扣除，并自动转换为当地货币。

The payment's deducted from a stablecoin balance and automatically converted into the local currency.

商家收到的资金与其他任何支付方式无异，完全 unaware 稳定币的来源。

The business receives funds just like any other payment, blissfully unaware of the stablecoin origins.

Fantom是拥有两千五百万月活跃用户的最受欢迎的加密钱包之一，它正使用Bridge为其客户推出稳定币借记卡。

Fantom, one of the most popular crypto wallets with 20,000,000 monthly active users, is using Bridge to roll out stablecoin back cards to their customers.

在我们为大规模稳定币采用的世界做准备时，我们会花时间思考区块链。

As we prepare for a world of massive stablecoin adoption, we spend time thinking about blockchains.

当今的区块链是为交易和去中心化金融设计的，而对支付而言至关重要的属性，包括吞吐量、可靠性、成本、可预测性和隐私性，并未得到足够重视。

Today's blockchains have been designed for trading and DeFi, and the attributes that matter for payments, including throughput, reliability, cost, predictability, and privacy, have not been a significant focus.

比特币每秒处理的交易数不到10笔。

Bitcoin processes fewer than 10 transactions a second.

去年，一条主流区块链上的一个模因币交易热潮导致某桥接用户的付款延迟了十二小时，并使每笔交易费用飙升了35倍。

Last year, a meme coin trading frenzy on one of the major blockchains delayed payouts for one bridge user by twelve hours and spiked per transaction prices 35 times.

尽管这类运营问题已经相当严重，但随着我们预期交易量大幅增长，这些问题只会更加加剧。

While such operational issues are already significant, they only intensify for we expect the upside for transactions to grow a great deal.

在我们看来，代理程序很快将负责大多数互联网交易，并可能需要支持每秒超过一百万甚至十亿笔交易的区块链。

In our view, agents will most likely soon be responsible for most Internet transactions and will likely need blockchains that support more than a million or maybe even more than a billion transactions a second.

因此，在九月，我们推出了Tempo——这是一款与Paradigm共同孵化、专为支付设计的区块链。

So in September, we unveiled Tempo, a blockchain purpose built for payments incubated together with Paradigm.

使用Tempo，企业可以获得专用支付通道、亚秒级最终性、可选隐私性，以及与合规和会计系统的互操作性。

With Tempo, businesses get dedicated payment lanes, sub second finality, opt in privacy, and interoperability with compliance and accounting systems.

这些功能听起来可能很平凡，但它们对于支持现实经济活动的基础设施至关重要。

These features might sound prosaic, but they matter a great deal for infrastructure that supports real world economic activity.

Visa、NewBank和Shopify等公司已经在多个应用场景中测试Tempo，包括全球支付、嵌入式金融和汇款。

Companies like Visa, NewBank, and Shopify are already testing Tempo for a number of use cases, including global payouts, embedded finance, and remittances.

Klarna的首席执行官曾自称是加密货币的怀疑者，如今它成为首家在Tempo测试网上推出稳定币Klarna USD的银行，利用Bridges的开放发行功能实现更快、更便宜的跨境结算。

Klarna, whose CEO was once a self proclaimed crypto skeptic, became the first bank to launch a stablecoin, Klarna USD, on the Tempo test net using Bridges' open issuance to facilitate faster and cheaper cross border settlement.

Tempo的架构也非常适合代理支付和微交易。

Tempo's architecture is also particularly well suited to agentic payments and micro transactions.

Tempo的主网即将上线，我们期待看到有雄心的企业用它构建什么应用。

Tempo's main net will be launching soon, and we look forward to seeing what ambitious businesses decide to build with it.

现在我们来谈谈资本的可获得性。

Now let's talk about the availability of capital.

自2008年以来，经合组织国家的人均GDP增长率仅为1%，远低于此前46年平均每年2.8%的水平。

Since 2008, GDP per capita growth has been a sluggish 1% in OECD countries, down from 2.8% a year on average for the forty six prior years when data begins.

人们总是倾向于寻找本地化的解释，比如日本的老龄化劳动力、英国脱欧、欧洲的能源结构，诸如此类的原因。

And it's always tempting to reach for local explanations, you know, Japan's aging workforce or Brexit or Europe's energy mix or all these kind of things.

但有充分证据表明，一个重要的原因是全球资本可获得性急剧下降。

But there's good evidence that a significant culprit is the sharp global drop in the availability of capital.

事实上，在大多数经合组织国家，全球金融危机后，银行的资本要求上升，而小企业的资本获取渠道却减少了。

Indeed, in most OECD countries, capital requirements for banks went up and capital access for small businesses went down following the global financial crisis.

巴塞尔III改革提高了全球大型银行的资本标准。

Basel III reforms raised capital standards for large banks around the world.

在爱尔兰，2011年至2019年间，银行对小微企业的贷款减少了66%以上。

In Ireland, bank lending to small businesses dropped by more than 66% between 2011 and 2019.

在英国，2012年小微企业贷款出现收缩，此后一直疲软。

In The UK, small business lending contracted in 2012 and remained weak thereafter.

美国的情况略好一些，非银行贷款机构提供了更便捷的资本渠道，过去十五年的人均GDP增长率为1.7%。

The US fared slightly better with easier access to capital from nonbank lenders and 1.7% per capita GDP growth over the last fifteen years.

但《多德-弗兰克法案》之后的总体趋势是一致的：银行监管收紧，小微企业获得资本的渠道减少。

But the broad trends post Dodd Frank are the same, tightening of bank rules and reduced access to capital for small businesses.

去年美国仅有41%的小企业贷款申请获得批准，低于2015年的50%。

Only 41% of small business loan applications were approved in The US last year, down from 50% in 2015.

我们创立了Stripe Capital，旨在解决全球资本获取渠道匮乏的问题，尤其是针对小微企业。

We created Stripe Capital to help solve the global paucity of access to capital, especially for small businesses.

对于使用Stripe收款的企业，其实时收入数据可作为贷款决策的简单依据。

For businesses that use Stripe to accept payments, their real time revenue data makes for a simple input to a lending decision.

企业以未来销售额的一定比例偿还贷款，实质上是将自身增长带来的现金流提前转化为营运资金。

Businesses pay back loans as a small percentage of their subsequent sales, effectively drawing working capital forward from their own growth.

去年，Stripe Capital 分配的资金比2024年增加了45%，惠及超过81,000家企业。

Last year, Stripe Capital distributed 45% more funds compared to 2024 to more than 81,000 businesses.

其中许多企业通过它们所使用的垂直SaaS平台直接获得了Stripe Capital的资金，例如GlossGenius服务于美容沙龙，Techmetric服务于汽车维修店，PixieSet服务于摄影师等等。

Many of these businesses had access to Stripe Capital funds directly through the vertical SaaS platforms on which they run, GlossGenius for beauty salons, Techmetric for auto shops, PixieSet for photographers, and so on.

在过去两年里，我们开展了一项随机对照研究，以了解资本的实际影响。

Over the last two years, we ran a randomized study to understand the causal impact of capital.

当我们帮助企业疏通运营瓶颈时，它们能增长得多快？

When we help businesses grease their wheels, how fast can they grow?

结果表明，速度快得多。

Turns out a lot faster.

获得并接受资本支持的企业，在接下来的一年里平均增长速度比未获得支持的同类企业快了27个百分点。

Businesses that received and accepted capital offers grew on average 27 percentage points faster over the following year than the otherwise equivalent businesses who didn't.

而平均值掩盖了普遍存在的巨大差异。

And the averages conceal a widespread.

增长最快的金融企业十分位群体，其增长速度是同类企业的三倍以上。

The fastest growing decile of finance businesses grew more than three times faster than comparable peers.

下一个十分位的企业增长速度快了近100个百分点。

The next decile grew nearly a 100 points faster.

一个典型的例子是总部位于加利福尼亚的服务器托管公司Zirsys，它利用Stripe Capital的融资在中国、印度和日本增设了服务器，随后实现了收入翻倍。

A representative example, Zirsys, a server hosting business based in California, used financing from Stripe Capital to set up additional servers in China, India, and Japan, subsequently doubling its revenue.

值得注意的是，即使信用评分较低的企业，在获得融资后增长速度也提高了11到18个百分点。

Notably, even businesses with low credit scores grew 11 to 18 percentage points faster after receiving financing.

这虽然尚属推测，但我们不禁思考：随着人工智能的进步提升投资回报率，未来几年资本获取能力是否会成为影响经济成果的更重要的因素。

It's speculative, but we wonder whether access to capital will become a more important factor in economic outcomes over the coming years as advanced in artificial intelligence increase the returns on investment.

现在，让我们谈谈我们称之为低收入模式的情况。

Now let's talk about what we've taken to calling low revenue mode.

对于成熟企业而言，显而易见的增长杠杆寥寥无几，而最具吸引力的那些并不总能奏效。

For mature businesses, there's notably few guaranteed growth levers hiding in plain sight, and the most enticing ones don't always work out.

以广告为例。

Take advertising.

2019年，吉列凭借其广告《男人所能达到的最佳状态》在戛纳赢得了银狮奖。

In 2019, Gillette won a silver lion at Cannes for their ad, the best men can be.

同年晚些时候，宝洁公司对该业务计提了80亿美元的减值，因为这个获奖广告并未带动增长。

Later that year, P and G took an $8,000,000,000 write down on the business as the award winning campaign failed to ignite growth.

更近一些，2025年，印度铁路的一项活动在戛纳斩获了Grand Prix和六座金狮奖，该活动采用‘金票’式每日抽奖，每天都会公布一个可赢取10000卢比的火车票号码。

More recently, a campaign for Indian Railways won a Grand Prix and six Gold Lions at Cannes in 2025 for its golden ticket style daily lottery where each day, you know, they'd have a train ticket number that was eligible to win 10,000 rupees.

但该活动在八周后被叫停，因为车票销量并未出现明显增长。

But the campaign was shut down after eight weeks with no discernible increase in ticket sales.

这就是为什么十五年后的今天，我们对支付业务充满热忱。

This is why fifteen years in, we are evangelically animated about payments.

与更具投机性的增长路径不同，优化你的支付设置几乎必然能带来额外收入，并且是你能开展的回报率最高的增长举措之一。

Unlike more speculative paths to growth, optimizing your payment setup is almost guaranteed to yield extra revenue and to be among the highest ROI growth activities that you could undertake.

例如，微软每月都会评估其每个支付服务提供商的精确表现。

Microsoft, for example, evaluates the precise performance of each of their payment service providers on a monthly basis.

在六月至十月期间，Stripe通过结合自适应接受、卡账户更新、网络令牌等技术，显著提升了微软的授权成功率。

Between June and October, Stripe delivered a meaningful increase in authorization rates for Microsoft using combination of adaptive acceptance, card account update, or network tokens, and more.

因此，微软现在将更大比例的支付交易路由至Stripe。

As a result, Microsoft is now routing a larger share of its payment volume through Stripe.

盖特威克机场在之前的支付服务商旗下，一直面临一系列支付失败、争议和客户投诉。

Gatwick Airport had been dealing with a string of failed payments, disputes, and customer complaints under its previous payment provider.

切换到Stripe后，支付接受率提升了2.5个百分点。

After switching to Stripe, payment acceptance rate rose by 2.5 percentage points.

在与前支付服务商进行A/B测试后，FICO采用Stripe，使授权率提升了1个百分点。

Following a b test against a former payment provider, FICO implemented Stripe and saw a one percentage point increase in auth rates.

远程医疗公司Ro在过去十二个月使用Stripe后，授权率提升了两个百分点，争议活动减少了3%，每年因此节省了数千万美元。

Telehealth company, Ro, saw a two percentage point increase in auth rates and a 3% decrease in dispute activity over the last twelve months with Stripe, resulting in tens of millions of dollars annually.

如今，大多数企业都处于我们所说的低收入模式，依赖老旧且未优化的支付基础设施，因转化率、授权率和反欺诈率远低于应有水平而持续流失资金。

Most businesses are today operating in what we call low revenue mode, running on old, unoptimized payments infrastructure that's leaking dollars left, right, and center through conversion, auth, and fraud prevention rates that should be so much better.

高收入模式的表现是，结账流程能根据不同客户进行个性化调整。

High revenue mode looks like a checkout that adapts differently to each customer.

你应该以本地货币定价，并提供最相关的数百种本地支付方式。

You should be pricing your products in local currency and offering the right set of the hundreds of local payment methods that are most relevant.

在波兰向客户展示BLIC，可使结账转化率平均提升46%。

Presenting BLIC to your customers in Poland drives an average 46% increase in checker conversion.

在巴西，提供精选支付方式也能带来平均31%的转化率提升。

Offering picks does the same in Brazil with a 31% average conversion uplift.

这一切都得益于数十年来在人工智能领域的投入，包括我们的支付基础模型以及Stripe Radar、优化结账套件和授权增强等AI驱动服务，这些服务每天都在默默优化数十亿美元的交易量。

This is all powered by a decades long investment in AI, including our payments foundation model and AI powered services like Stripe Radar, optimized checkout suite, and authorization boost that quietly optimize billions of dollars of transaction volume every day.

然而，仍有巨大的改进空间。

And yet, there's still so much more room for improvement.

去年，我们开始测试让消费者用手机轻触卡片进行身份验证的功能，该功能通过NFC芯片验证卡片，几乎能确保持卡人确实持有实体卡片。

Last year, we started testing the ability for consumers to tap their card on their own phone for authentication, which validates the card through the NFC chip and all but guarantees the card holder actually has possession of the physical card.

作为该试点项目的合作伙伴，DoorDash发现，与之前的欺诈检测相比，其转化率显著提升，同时退单率也有所下降。

DoorDash, a partner in this trial, has seen a meaningful increase in conversion versus their previous fraud checks while reducing chargeback rates.

我们还为Radar构建了新的模型，以应对人工智能热潮带来的各种新兴欺诈手段，特别是利用免费试用或其他类似机制窃取AI推理的常见尝试。

We also built new models for radar to handle a wider range of fraud vectors emerging in response to the AI boom, in particular, the very common attempts to steal AI inference through abusing free trials or similar mechanism.

因此，各位CEO，炫目的广告活动固然有趣，但不要忽视就在你眼前的增长机会。

So CEOs, splashy ad campaigns are good fun, but don't overlook the revenue growth right under your nose.

你们负责支付的负责人几乎肯定值得获得更多的认可。

Your heads of payments almost definitely deserve more recognition.

所以，也许我们可以为支付优化团队在法国南部举办一场颁奖典礼。

So let's maybe throw them an award ceremony in the South Of France for payments optimizations.

或者，如果你想要一个更模糊一点的版本，我们很期待今年四月在旧金山的Stripe活动上见到你们。

Or if you want a foggier version of that, we'd love to see them in San Francisco this April for Stripe sessions.

现在，让我们谈谈代理式商业以及代理式商业的不同层次。

Now let's talk about agentic commerce and the different levels of agentic commerce.

目前，AI领域的大部分热潮都围绕着某种工具使用模型，这些模型不仅能对预训练语料库中的数据进行思考，还能上网搜索、使用浏览器、部署代码，或类似地在更广泛的互联网上采取行动。

So most of the recent excitement AI has been around some form of tool use models able not only to cogitate on data within the pretraining corpus, but to go out and search the web or use a browser or deploy code or similarly take some action on the wider Internet.

对我们而言，最相关的工具使用形式是代理式商业，即你的AI即将代表你购买商品。

The form of tool use most relevant to our world is agentic commerce, the idea that your AIs will soon be buying stuff on your behalf.

和AI领域的大多数事物一样，代理式商业也因过早被过度炒作而受到困扰。

Now, like most in AI, agentic commerce suffers from having been a bit overhyped too early.

人们描绘出一幅乌托邦式的图景：自主代理四处奔走，为你规划整个人生，无需与你沟通就能完成交易。

People paint this utopian picture of autonomous agents running around planning your whole life, executing commerce without, you know, even talking to you.

我们认为，逐步构建一个更广阔的代理式商业愿景会更有帮助。

We find it helpful to build up a broader vision of agented commerce in small chunks.

所以，第一级就是消除网页表单。

So, level one is just eliminating web forms.

你会先研究想买的东西，但填写网页表单绝对不是任何人的乐趣。

You research what you want to buy, but filling out web forms is no one's idea of fun.

如果你能把网址发给你的代理，让它帮你填写表单、支付和配送信息，然后回来给你确认，那就太方便了。

It'll be really handy if you would just send the URL to your agent and have is fill out the form, the payment and shipping details, and come back to you with the confirmation.

所以这个系统并没有替你做任何决定。

So the system isn't making any decisions for you.

它只是代表你打字并点击购买。

It's just typing and clicking buy on your behalf.

然后是第二级：描述性搜索。

Then level two is descriptive search.

你不再搜索产品、特定属性或关键词，而是开始描述具体情境。

So you stop searching for products or specific attributes or keywords and start describing the situation.

你可能会说：我需要为芝加哥一个三年级学生准备返校用品，包括衣服，不要太痒或太紧，还有铅笔、笔记本、午餐盒。

So you might say, I need back to school supplies for a third grader in Chicago, including clothes, nothing too itchy or tight, pencils, notebooks, a lunchbox.

我儿子喜欢K-pop、恶魔猎手和网球，学校八月底开学。

My son likes K pop demon hunters and tennis, and school starts in late August.

系统能够综合考虑天气、材质、尺寸、耐用性、价格、口味、评价和配送时间等各种因素进行推理。

And the system can reason across weather and materials and size and durability and price and taste and reviews and delivery timelines and everything.

小众和长尾产品也更容易被找到。

And specialized and long tail products, they become easier to find.

烦人的关键词搜索将成为过去。

Annoyingly blunt keyword searches become a thing of the past.

第三层是加入持久性，这样你就不用每次重新介绍自己。

Then level three is about layering in persistence so you can stop reintroducing yourself every single time.

每次搜索都不是全新的情境。

Each search is not a brand new scenario.

你可以说：帮我找找Bobby的开学服装选项。

You can say instead, find me options for my back to school clothes for Bobby.

系统已经了解你的偏好，记得所有要求，并能从你之前的对话和购买记录中推断信息。

And the system already knows your preferences and remembers any requirements and, you know, infers from your previous conversations and purchases.

你还在决定买什么。

You're still deciding what to buy.

你虽然点击确认每个购买，但你是在从一组反映你、你的品味、预算和历史的选项中做选择。

You're clicking confirm on every purchase, but you're choosing from a set of options that reflects you and your taste and budget and history.

然后第四阶段是关于委托。

Then level four is where you get into delegation.

因此，你就不用再做所有选择了。

And so you stop having to make all the choices.

你可以说：帮我完成鲍比的开学购物，且总花费控制在400美元以内。

You could say, get the back to school shopping done and keep it under $400.

系统会代表你处理搜索、评估和购买流程。

And the system handles the search and the evaluation process and the purchases on your behalf.

你会信任它，就像信任你的伴侣一样，让它权衡利弊，选择你儿子会喜欢的东西。

And you trust it like you might your partner that it'll weigh the trade offs and it'll choose things that your son would like.

你只需要确定预算。

All you do is determine the budget.

而今天，当人们谈论代理式商业时，大多数人都指的是这种四级委托。

And this is what most people mean today when they talk about agentic commerce is this level four level of delegation.

而五级则是预测。

And then level five is anticipation.

也许你根本不需要发出任何指令。

Maybe you don't do any prompting.

系统已经掌握了学校的日历、你儿子的偏好以及你通常的预算。

The system already knows the school calendar, your son's preferences, your typical budget.

你只需要接收一条通知。

All you do is receive a notification.

这是已经购买好的所有开学用品清单。

Here's the back to school list of everything that we've already bought.

这是最前沿的愿景：在你需要之前，东西就已经自动出现，而你无需主动要求。

And this is the most futuristic vision where things are showing up right before you need them without you having to ask.

但如今，整个行业还徘徊在一两级的边缘。

But today, the industry is hovering right on the edge of levels maybe one and two.

在代理式商业中，我们被提醒起上世纪九十年代中期的那几年，当时我们今天所使用的互联网架构正是在那时成型的。

With agentic commerce, we're reminded of those few years in the mid nineteen nineties when the structure of the Internet we use today was hashed out.

网景公司开发了图形化网页浏览器、HTTP、HTML、URL、DNS，这些技术都获得了广泛重视。

Netscape developed graphical web browsers, HTTP, HTML, URLs, DNS, all gained prominence.

当时，没有人确切知道哪些协议或参与者最终会胜出。

At the time, no one knew exactly which protocols or players would have been out.

那时，每一个Google都有一个Altavista与之对应。

There was an Alta Vista for every Google.

而如今，我们正处在代理式商业这样一个同样罕见的时刻，它有可能产生代际级的影响。

And we're in a similarly rare moment now with agented commerce, which has the potential to be generationally impactful.

但与早期互联网一样，代理式商业未来的成功取决于普遍的互操作性。

But as with the early Internet, the future success of Agenda Commerce is contingent on universal interoperability.

我们对前述五个层级的攀升，依赖于我们能否协同合作。

Our ascent through those five levels we discussed depends on our ability to all work together.

为此，我们一直忙个不停。

And to that end, we've been busy.

我们去年的一些亮点包括：与OpenAI合作开发了Agenta商业协议，为AI平台和企业建立了一种共享的技术语言。

A few highlights from our last year include, with OpenAI, we developed the AgenTA Commerce Protocol to establish a shared technical language between AI platforms and businesses.

该协议从设计上就是开放的，能够在不同的支付提供商和AI平台之间协同工作。

It's open by design, working across payment providers and across AI platforms.

我们推出了共享支付令牌，这是一种新型支付基础单元，允许代理在不暴露凭证的情况下发起支付。

We introduced shared payment tokens, a new payment primitive that lets agents initiate payments without exposing credentials.

你不必把信用卡到处乱发。

You don't be flinging your credit cards all around the web.

即使那些不通过Stripe处理支付的企业，也可以将这些令牌转发到自己的安全存储库或其他处理器作为安全凭证。

Even businesses that don't process payments with Stripe can forward these tokens to their own vaults or other processors as secure credentials.

我们推出了Agenta商业套件，为企业提供工具，使其能够通过多个AI接口和协议进行销售，包括我们自己的ACP协议，以及谷歌上个月发布的通用商业协议，只需一次集成即可。

We launched Agenta Commerce Suite, which provides tooling for businesses to sell across multiple AI interfaces and protocols, including our own ACP and the universal commerce protocol that Google unveiled last month with a single integration.

结账、支付和欺诈防护等功能在后台依然稳定可靠。

Checkout, payments, fraud protection continue to work predictably underneath the hood.

目前已接入ACS的品牌包括Anthropologie、Urban Outfitters、Etsy、Coach、Kate Spade，还有更多。

Brands already onboarding to ACS include Anthropologie, Urban Outfitters, Etsy, Coach, Kate Spade, and a bunch more.

我们推出了机器支付，允许开发者通过稳定币微交易直接向代理收取API调用、MCP使用和HTTP请求的费用。

We launched machine payments, a way for developers to charge agents directly for API calls, MCP usage, and HTTP requests using stablecoin microtransactions.

自主代理本身正成为互联网企业面向Celta的新客户类型。

Autonomous agents themselves are emerging as a new customer type for Internet businesses to Celta.

我们与OpenAI合作，在ChatGPT内打造了首个购物体验。

And we partnered with OpenAI to power the first shopping experience inside ChatGPT.

这意义重大。

This is huge.

我们还与微软合作，将类似功能引入Copilot，并与其他伙伴展开合作。

We're also collaborating with Microsoft to bring similar capabilities to Copilot and with others.

虽然无法准确预测到2026年代理商业会发展到什么程度，但很明显，我们已经远远超越了纯粹的炒作阶段，进入了实际构建与现实世界实验的阶段，变革的步伐很可能只会从这里加速。

There's no forecasting exactly where agentic commerce will be by the 2026, but it's clear we've already moved well beyond pure hype into a phase of building and real world experimentation, and the pace of change will likely only accelerate from here.

如果一切顺利，这些小家伙们将不再被禁锢在围墙花园里，而是会飞驰在开放的协议高速公路上。

If If all goes well, the little critters are not gonna be cooped up in walled gardens, but they'll be zooming down the wide open protocol highways.

最后，让我们更广泛地谈谈创业。

Lastly, let's talk about entrepreneurship more generally.

今天的创业者和创新者所拥有的工具和影响力，是前几代工业家无法想象的。

Today's entrepreneurs and innovators have tools and reach the prior generations of industrialists could not have fathomed.

我们有望很快看到人类智慧的组合效应，以生产力提升和全球生活水平提高的形式显现出来。

We'll hopefully soon witness the combinatorial effect of human ingenuity playing out in the form of productivity gains and improved living standards everywhere.

去年，乔尔·莫基尔获得了诺贝尔经济学奖。

Last year, Joel Mokier was awarded the Nobel Prize in economic sciences.

莫基尔以强调文化相对于资本、劳动力和技术等传统经济要素的重要性而广为人知。

Mokier is widely known for emphasizing the importance of culture relative to the traditional economic inputs of capital, labor, and technology.

18世纪的工业家们不仅仅依靠煤炭或地理优势。

Eighteenth century industrialists didn't just have coal or geography on their side.

他们拥有一种全新的文化，一种将现状视为不完美且可改进的进取心态。

They had a new culture, an improvement mindset that saw the status quo as imperfect and correctable.

在技术变革的政治经济学中，莫基尔还观察到，过去许多在经济上更具优势的新技术之所以失败，是因为技术决策不仅涉及供应商和客户，还牵涉到一系列广泛的非市场参与者，如监管机构、委员会和法院，它们影响着技术的采纳。

In the political economy of technological change, Moker also observed that new technologies have in the past often failed despite their economic superiority because technological decision making implicates not only suppliers and customers, but also a broad variety of nonmarket aggregators, regulators, committees, courts that influence what is adopted.

随着人工智能和互联网拓展了可能性的边界，阻碍采用和适应的人为障碍将变得越来越昂贵。

As AI and the Internet expand the scope of what's possible, synthetic impediments to adoption and adaptation will become increasingly costly.

我们日益分化的经济表明，增长依赖于有用知识的应用，而非其抽象存在所带来的预设结果。

Our bifurcating economy shows that growth is contingent on the application of useful knowledge and not some preordained result as a result of its abstract availability.

人工智能有望极大推动药物发现，但只有当我们让监管流程（包括临床试验）变得更快速、更便宜时，这一潜力才能实现。

AI harbors the promise of enormously improving drug discovery, but the potential will only be realized if we make the regulatory processes, including clinical trials, faster and cheaper.

欧洲的创业者可以利用新工具提振疲软的经济，但前提是必须削减那些初衷良好却适得其反的负担，比如《欧盟人工智能法案》。

Entrepreneurs in Europe can boost tepid economies with new tools, but only if well intentioned yet counterproductive burdens such as the EU AI act are curtailed.

下一代核能技术有可能带来能源富足，但前提是必须彻底改革由否决型机构主导的监管体系。

Next generation approaches to nuclear energy could usher in energy abundance, but only if we overhaul vetocratic regulatory regimes.

从长途卡车运输到无人机的自动驾驶运输与物流，若不任由繁杂的地方条例和寻租行为固化为阻碍，将大幅降低实物商品的成本。

Autonomous transport and logistics from long haul trucking to drones could dramatically reduce the cost of physical goods, provided we don't let a slurry of local ordinances and rent seeking harden into a blockade.

莫克尔曾论述过‘文人共和国’在推动工业革命中的重要作用。

Moker wrote about the importance of the republic of letters in catalyzing the industrial revolution.

但今天，我们生活在一个‘许可共和国’中，一个由非市场聚合者构成的过滤筛网。

But today, we inhabit a republic of permissions, a filtering sieve of nonmarket aggregators.

尽管我们的许多制度初衷合理，但如今比以往任何时候都更需要确保它们在实现的收益与被扼杀的可能性之间取得审慎平衡。

While many of our structures are sensibly motivated, it's more important than ever to ensure that they carefully balance the benefits achieved with the possibilities foreclosed.

我们很荣幸能支持许多具有韧性的企业，展现可能性的边界。

We're privileged to support many businesses with the tenacity to show what's possible.

Mistral AI 和 Bending Spoons 证明了世界级的欧洲人才能够突破监管的冻土层。

Mistral AI and Bending Spoons are proving that world class European talent can puncture the regulatory permafrost.

Zipline 和 VARTA 一点一点地赢得复杂新硬件的许可，而 Spring Health 和 Maven Clinic 则正在为现代医疗构建全新的软件层。

Zipline and VARTA are earning permissions for complex new hardware inch by inch, while Spring Health and Maven Clinic are stitching together a new software layer for modern healthcare.

我们依然相信理念对经济进步的重要性，并认为许多最佳理念尚未得到应有的重视。

We continue to believe in the importance of ideas fueling economic progress and believe that many of the best are undervalued.

Stripe Press 的书目收录了我们认为能够推动下一波进步的众多人物、故事和模式。

The Stripe Press catalog is home to many of the people, stories, and models we think can contribute to the next set of improvements.

团队最近庆祝了售出一百万册图书。

The team recently celebrated 1,000,000 books sold.

我们的杂志《进行中》——聚焦被低估的改善世界的理念——最近也推出了印刷版订阅，您可以在 worksinprogress.co/print 订阅。

Works in progress, our magazine of underrated ideas to improve the world, has also recently branched out into print subscriptions, and you can get yours over at worksinprogress.co/print.

我们强烈推荐。

We highly recommend it.

因此，总结一下，这封信的大部分内容都致力于探讨人工智能的进展，而这些进展有时让人难以跟上。

So to wrap up, much of this letter has been dedicated to advances in AI, which can seem hard to keep up with at times.

你知道，刚刚发布的产品与去年最先进技术之间的质的差异是巨大的。

You know, the qualitative difference between the just released products and last year's state of the art is huge.

我们想起了掉入巨大黑洞的现象。

We're reminded of the phenomenon of falling into a large black hole.

我希望你永远不会经历这种情况，但如果你真的遭遇了这种不幸，当你穿过事件视界时，实际上并不会感受到任何异常。

Now, I hope this never happens to you, but if you do ever experience that particular misfortune, you don't actually feel anything at the special moment when you cross the event horizon.

路径在局部是平滑的，尽管一旦跨越这个阈值，可能的未来图景就会发生剧变。

The path is locally smooth, even though the space of possible futures changes dramatically upon the point of crossing the threshold.

我们在这封信中分享的内容，或许正是另一种、希望也更友善的奇点到来的时刻。

And we're sharing this letter on what might well turn out to be the advent of a different and hopefully much more beneficent singularity.

虽然2026年我们周围的一切看起来与往年相似——局部仍是平滑的——但很明显，下一个十年将与过去十年大不相同。

While much around us in 2026 feels similar to prior years, it's locally smooth, it's also clear that the next decade will look very different to those just gone by.

我们依然对充满活力的创业精神和明智的文化如何促进更成功的未来社会充满热情，也希望Stripe能为此贡献一份微小的力量。

We're as enthusiastic as ever about how vibrant entrepreneurship and wise cultures can contribute to more successful future societies, and we hope that Stripe can play a small role in that.

如果你正在推动经济增长，无论是作为企业家、企业领导者还是金融基础设施建设者，我们希望在四月的Stripe活动中欢迎你。

And if you're propelling economic growth yourself, whether as an entrepreneur, a business leader, or financial infrastructure builder, we hope to welcome you at Stripe sessions in April.

和往常一样，还有很多话题值得探讨。

As always, there's so much to discuss.