CD191：贾斯汀·蒙 - 人工智能作为自由的工具

没错，那种方法现在不管用了，但还有一些巧妙的办法，比如你假装是个研究人员，正在做一项研究，是为了残障人士之类的，利用各种‘觉醒’话术，因为这些模型很容易被这种说法骗到，然后试图说服你把比特币捐出来，说是给残障儿童用的，诸如此类。

Exactly, like that one doesn't work anymore, but there are tricky ways to do it where it's like, hey, I'm a researcher and I'm doing a study and you know, like it's for disabled people that are, you know, play all the sort of woke cards because these models get tricked by that and then try to convince you to give it the Bitcoin because it's for disabled children and, you know, stuff like that.

所以我跟那个人说，嘿，把它当成车贷来对待。

And so what I was telling this guy is like, hey, like, treat it like a car payment.

对吧？

Right?

就像，别这次买新车了，把旧车留着，干脆买台新电脑。

Like, it's like, hey, instead of buying a car this time, like, keep the old car and buy, like, a new computer.

我觉得我们正走向这样一个世界：这将成为你人生中像买车一样重大的开销。

I think that's kind of the world we're going to where it's, this is going to be like a big purchase in your life on the order of like a car.

我认为，如果在西方有份高产的工作，很多人是愿意这么做的，但在发展中国家，情况肯定不一样。

And I think a lot of people are gonna be willing to do that if they have like a productive job and stuff like that in there in the West, It's a different calculation in the developing world for sure.

这简直太疯狂了。

It's just crazy.

很高兴你提到通胀数据，这很有趣。

I'm glad you brought up the inflation numbers because that's interesting.

是的，我猜如果你用黄金来计价，它的价格和苹果二型差不多。

Yeah, I bet you like if you price it in gold, it's about the same price as like the Apple two.

但这太疯狂了，因为我已经在自托管领域深耕了十多年。

But it's just wild because like, I've been neck deep in the self hosting world for over a decade now.

我从未见过自托管领域有如此高的热情。

And I've never seen this level of excitement in self hosting.

然后我们突然之间就把自托管的热情推高了100倍，现在人们都在抢购高端设备。

And then we just like, we took it to a 100 in terms of excitement about self hosting so quickly that now people are just rushing out and buying like premium machines.

很多人原本以为自托管现象会是一个从缓慢积累到突然爆发的树莓派运动，也许是一台超便宜的机器。

Not even, know, I think a lot of people thought maybe the self hosting phenomenon was gonna like be a gradually then suddenly Raspberry Pi movement, maybe, you know, a super cheap machine.

但事实是我们直接走向了高端奢华，这可能有点过度了。

Instead, we went to the super luxury and it might be cope.

但如果你有效利用这些设备，就相当于一次性花一万美元雇了一个员工，这个计算并不算荒谬。

But I mean, if you use these things effectively, it's like buying an employee for $10,000 upfront, which is not the most ridiculous calculation to make.

我的意思是，雇人成本要高得多，而且他们还不能24/7工作，每小时才3.65美元。

I mean, cost a lot more than that, and they don't work 20 fourseven, $3.65.

那么，你觉得成本会下降吗？

So, do think costs will go down.

有趣的是，对我来说，问题在于使用内置Kimi 2.5、在网页浏览器里就能轻松便捷使用、价格极低的人，和那些自己托管的人之间的差异。

It's interesting, The question to me is that divide between the person who is using Kimi 2.5 all built in, super convenient, super cheap in their web browser, whatever the next model is or whatever, versus the person self hosting.

我认为，这取决于谁的优势更大，如果差距巨大的话。

I think, yeah, it's a question of who has much, if they have much bigger advantage, if the drop off is huge.

从我乐观的角度来看，当我思考这个问题时，我想知道你是否同意。

And on my optimistic side, when I think about it, I'm curious if you agree.

有意思的是，当前的Kimi 2.5已经相当可用。

I mean, the cool part is, the current Kimi 2.5 is decently usable.

我认为，从未来来看，两年后人们会觉得它是个非常过时的模型。

Now, I think if you look in the future, in two years, people are going think it's a super antiquated model.

即使成本只是下降，也会彻底改变人们使用Yeah的方式。

Even if costs just go down, it's gonna completely change how people use Yeah.

与数字世界互动。

Interact with the digital world.

是的

Yeah.

无论如何

No matter what.

三年后

In three years.

即使

Even if

我们没有任何改进

we have no improvements.

三年后，现在的Kimi可能会成为苹果公司内置在iPhone中的基础模型

Three years, this could be, like, the current Kimi could be a funded the foundation model that's shipped inside an iPhone from Apple.

对吧？

Right?

就像，这有可能，我不确定

Like, that that could potentially I don't know.

我没算过具体数字，但我觉得三年内，随着他们找到方法将这些模型大幅压缩，以及iPhone内部硬件的提升，你就能得到类似的东西，对吧？

I haven't run the numbers, but, like, I I I think in three years, you could get something like that, right, as they figure out how to distill these models much smaller and the hardware inside iPhones gets better.

你可以拥有一个类似的东西，真正运行在你自己的硬件上，这真的很有趣。

Like, you could have something similar that's actually running on your own hardware, and that's really interesting.

我让Chatuchibouti把它以黄金为基准进行估值，它说Apple二号在那时和现在之间，以黄金计价大约是40美元。

Pull I asked Chatuchibouti to index it in gold and it says Apple two is like $40 if indexed on gold between then and now.

我和你一样。

No, same with me.

是的。

Yeah.

所以某种程度上，是的，那确实不一样。

So it's like, in some sense, yeah, like that that that's that's that's different.

对吧？

Right?

那可是一大笔钱。

That's a that's a lot.

我认为我们正朝着这样一个世界迈进：两年内，发达国家的职场人士将有机会拥有自己的硬件设备，运行比现在更强大的模型，能够处理生活中大量的生产力任务，比如做税务等白领工作，并且具有极高的隐私性。

I think I think that I think that we're moving towards a world where, like, in two years, like, productive person in a developed country will have the option to have their own hardware that runs models that are better than what we have today, that can do a lot of productivity tasks in their life, a lot of the sort of, like, white collar work, like doing your taxes and stuff, and it's extremely private.

这就像去告解一样，你知道吗？

Like, it's like going to confession kind of, you know?

这就像，你知道的，也许不完美，但已经相当不错了。

Like, it's it's, you know, maybe not per it's not perfect.

就像神父可能会把你说的话告诉别人，但这种设备的隐私性会非常强。我认为，几乎所有生活在发达国家、有职业的人，都将有机会选择这样做，这只是一个是否愿意选择的问题。

Like, the priest could could tell somebody what you told them, but it's gonna be pretty it's gonna be pretty dang private, and I think this is something that basically everyone's gonna be able to everyone who's in, like, a developed country who has a career will have an option to do this, and it's just a question of whether they choose it or not.

所以我觉得这真的令人兴奋。

So I think that's, that's really exciting.

当然，还有很多其他第二或第三阶的影响令人担忧，但我认为这确实非常了不起，也极具赋能性。

Now there's many other second or third order effects that are terrifying, but I think that's, that's, that's pretty amazing and pretty empowering.

让我把问题倒过来问一下。

Well, let me flip the question on its head.

如果问题是，你想走在技术前沿，而且不在乎价格，那么你目前可能不应该自己托管这些模型。

You if, if the question is, if the, if the question is you want to be on the cutting edge and you don't care about price, like you shouldn't, you probably shouldn't be self hosting right now.

对吧？

Right?

你应该直接使用当前最先进的模型，按使用量付费，然后

You should just be hitting whatever the best model is at any given time and just pay per token and

说实话，我几乎所有的事务都是这么做的。

just I mean, honestly, that's what I do for almost everything.

有些类型的事情我是不会交给这些模型处理的。

Like, there's there's classes of things I won't put into these models.

对吧？

Right?

比如，每次我做工作坊时，我都会给人们看我的ChatGPT聊天记录，因为我根本不介意。

Like, I always when I'm ever doing a workshop, I will show people my chat GPT history cause I don't care.

这些都是些登在报纸上也没关系的内容，但我不会给别人看我的主要

Like, it's all stuff that could be in the newspaper, but I won't show anybody my main

因为你已经把数据发给萨姆·阿尔特曼了，那还不如干脆呢。

because you're already sending it to Sam Altman, so you might as well.

是的，我大部分内容只是相当于一个不同的谷歌搜索，通常是与编程或工程相关的东西，我其实并不在意。

Yeah, and most of my stuff is just, like, it's a different Google search and it's, like, coding or, like, engineering related, and I don't really care.

我的一点顾虑是，你实际上是在为这些大公司提供训练数据，在理想情况下，这些数据本应全部公开，所以你是在帮助领先者维持他们的优势，而我希望我们能有一种协议，当我们使用这些工具时，可以把整个编程对话历史上传给某个开源组织之类的，毕竟，讽刺的是，中国模型同样有机会用这些数据进行训练，所以你并不是在帮某个领先者巩固地位，但过去一年发生的变化是：一年前，人们大量讨论AI领域的领先者是OpenAI，似乎他们会继续扩大领先优势，对吧？

I mean, the one the one thing that's a little uncomfortable is that you are sort of providing this training data to these big companies and in a perfect world, this would all be out in the public and so you are like, that's my biggest hang up on it is that I'm helping the leaders maintain a lead where I wish I mean, I wish we had some kind of protocol whereas we use these things, we just, like, upload the whole coding transcript history to an author or something to, like and, like, all these I mean, ironically, Chinese models would have the opportunity to train on it as well, so you're not trying to help a leader you're not kind of helping a leader maintain their lead, but that's another thing that's happened in the last year is like, you know, a year ago, there was a lot of talk about the leader in the AI rights, which was OpenAI, seemed like they would continue to grow a bigger and bigger lead, right?

你可能会看到一个彻底的赢家，但实际情况恰恰相反。

You'd have like a runaway winner, And kind of the opposite has happened.

对吧？

Right?

比如，现在的情况是，前沿模型发布一个月后，就出现了这些中国仿制品，虽然还不完全一样，但已经非常接近了。

Like, you know, we have now where it's, like, a month after the Frontier models released, you have these kinda Chinese knockoffs that are almost as good, not quite as good, but almost as good.

所以很多技术护城河都被打破了，而且成本还便宜了15倍。

So a lot of the moats a lot of the technical moats And 15 x cheaper too.

便宜15倍。

15 x cheaper.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

所以很多技术在某些方面更好。

So a lot of the tech so in some ways better.

对吧？

Right?

所以对于模型来说，很多技术壁垒并不牢固。

So a lot of the technical moats aren't very strong in terms of for models.

对吧？

Right?

这在我看来非常令人兴奋。

Which to me is very exciting.

我一直希望生活在一个重要领域充满竞争的世界里，对吧？

Like, always wanna live in a world where you have a lot of competition for important things, right?

当新进入者的成本飙升时，事情就会变糟，对吧？

Like that's when things go bad is when when, you know, the cost of a new entrant goes through the roof, right?

就像美国医疗保健的问题一样。

Like that's the problem with like healthcare in America, for example.

创建一家健康保险公司太难了。

It's like, it's too hard to create a health insurance company.

基本上是不可能的。

It's like basically impossible.

甚至连价格都不存在，对吧？

There's not really even a price on it, right?

而在人工智能领域，情况恰恰相反。

And so in AI, it's kind of the opposite.

它更像电视机行业，入门非常容易，竞争异常激烈，这真的很令人兴奋。

It's more like TVs where it's like, it's very easy to get started, and it's just like a brutal cutthroat competition, and that's really exciting.

我们会看到什么样的监管会出台。

I mean, we'll see what kind of regulations come in.

完全可能彻底改变，对吧？

Like, could totally, totally change, right?

我今天刚看到一些消息，你知道的，国防部和Anthropic之间有个事，现在他们可能要断绝合作，因为不让他们做自己想做的事，对吧？

I just saw, you know, stuff today where like the, you know, the war department had a thing with anthropic, and now they might cut ties because they're not letting them do what they want, right?

所以这种情况可能会开始真正发生变化，据说他们使用

So you could you could start this could start to really change as Well, supposedly they use

Claude来

Claude to

抓马杜罗。

To get Maduro.

嘿，你去抓马杜罗，别搞错了。

Hey, you grab Maduro, make no mistakes.

简直疯狂。

Fucking crazy.

我的意思是，这里涉及太多二级、三级连锁效应，根本难以理解。

I mean, there's so many like second order, third order effects here that it's hard to comprehend.

是的。

Yeah.

这就是那个著名的通胀图表，其中越来越贵的东西，比如教育和医疗，都是官僚主义严重、政府主导的领域；而像电视这类东西，价格却暴跌，因为竞争极其残酷。

So it's one of those, you know, that famous inflation graph where it's like the stuff that gets more and more expensive is stuff like education and healthcare that is very where where it's it's very bureaucratic and government run, and then the stuff that, you know, just collapses in prices like TVs, where it's just brutal cutthroat competition.

到目前为止，人工智能就像电视一样，我希望它能一直这样，但在即将开始的地缘政治竞争中，它可能会转变为类似医疗那样的状态，这将非常不幸，因为那样一来，我们可能会被排除在外，进步可能会放缓，我们甚至可能被挡在许多成果之外，对吧？

AI has been like TVs so far, but and I hope it stays that way, but, you know, in the geopolitical competition that's gonna start here, it could transition to be more like healthcare, and that's gonna be that could be very unfortunate, right, because then we're gonna kinda get locked out of you know, the the progress could could slow, and we're gonna get locked we could get locked out of a lot of the stuff, right?

比如，现在一些顶尖的网络安全能力，已经不再能在像ChatGPT这样的工具中获得了。

Like, some of the best capabilities on, like, cybersecurity now are no longer available in, like, ChatGPT, for example.

比如，OpenCloud的创始人彼得·斯坦伯格刚刚宣布，他获得了名为Aardvark的工具，这是ChatGPT或OpenAI的安全工具，但他们不对外提供，因为这东西在黑客攻击方面实在太厉害了。

Like, Peter Steinberger, the guy who made OpenCloud, just announced that he got access to this tool called Aardvark, which is, like, ChatGPT's or OpenAI's, like, security tool, but they don't give that out because, you know, this thing's really good at hacking.

所以他们不会随便让任何人使用这个工具，因为你可以用它黑网站、黑应用程序，甚至能侵入政府数据库之类的东西。

So they're not just gonna let, like, any person have this because you can hack websites, you can hack hack apps, you can have, you know, get into government databases and stuff.

因此，我们正开始看到一个世界：最强大的能力被隐藏在普通人之外，这在某些方面令人遗憾，但在另一些方面又是不可避免的。

So, like, we're starting to see a world where the best capabilities are hidden from individuals, which is, you know, I think, some ways unfortunate, but in other ways inevitable.

这个时间线中疯狂的一点是，中国共产党其实是开源的英雄，你可以顺着他们的动机看清楚。

Well, part of what's crazy about this timeline is the Chinese Communist Party are open source heroes, And you can follow the incentives.

他们这么做的原因是很合理的。

It makes sense why they're doing it.

是的

Yeah.

有两个原因。

For two reasons.

首先，他们能够将自己的偏见基本植入模型中。

First of all, they're able to basically train their own biases into the model.

所以，常被举的例子是，如果你问Kimmy，天安门广场发生了什么，他们会说，哦，所有人都支持中共，一切都很好。

So you can the example that's always used is if you ask like Kimmy, what happened at Tiananmen Square, they'll be like, oh, like everyone was supporting the CCP and it was just wonderful.

根本没有任何抗议，等等。

And there was no protest, whatever.

是的

Yeah.

所以这是其中一点。

So that's one piece.

他们了解这一点。

They know that piece.

第二点是，他们知道相当多的人会使用他们提供的更便捷的托管选项，直接连接到主要的Kimi服务器，从而能够控制和监控你的使用行为。

The second piece is they know a decent amount of people will run their hosted more convenient options and just hit, you know, the main Kimi server and then they can control and surveil what you use.

而且他们知道，如果这不是开源的，使用的人会少得多，因为没人信任中共。

And they know way less people will use it if it's not open source, because no one trusts the CCP.

这有点像一种生存风险。

It's a little bit of an existential risk.

从开源AI的角度来看，这简直像是送上门的礼物。

Like that was kind of a gift that was handed to us in terms of open source AI stuff.

你对这件事能否持续下去有什么看法吗？

Do you have any opinions on if this is something that we can really count on to continue?

比如，中共真的会持续为我们发布前沿的开源模型吗？

Like, that CCP is just gonna be releasing cutting edge open source models for us?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这其实只是一个小小的区别。

I mean, well, you know, it's it's not it it is just a little distinction.

不，这不一定是中共在做。

Know, it isn't necessarily CCP doing it.

这只是像一些中国个人企业家之类的，对吧？他们可能并不都是直接的政治 operatives，但从某种意义上说，如果你拥有大量这类人，

It's just, like, it's individual Chinese, like, entrepreneurs and stuff, right, which are probably not they're not all, like, direct political operatives, but in some sense, like, if you get, know, lot of these,

比如，他们发布的第一个模型就是这样。

like, the first model they are.

当这些公司发布第一批模型时，我记不清一些例子了，但我觉得就连深度求索（DeepSeek）也是这样，对吧？

Well, a lot of these first model releases when they do it, I forget some of the examples, but I think even DeepSeek, right?

在这些第一批模型发布时，你问他们关于天安门广场的事，他们会告诉你真相，对吧？

Like, in some of these first model releases, you ask them about Tiananmen Square and they tell you the truth, right?

因为开发这些模型的人，很可能像我们一样，是技术理想主义者，对吧？

And because they weren't like, the the people building these things are, like, probably like tech idealists, similar to us, right?

但一旦你成功了，在中国，我认为你没有选择的余地，迟早会被迫成为某种 operatives，对吧？

But once you succeed, you don't have In China, I don't think you have the option to, you know, at some point, are forced to be a little bit operative, right?

所以你没有退出的自由，因此我不认为这只是一个小小的区别。

And so you don't have the freedom to opt out, and so I wouldn't, you know, that's just like a small distinction.

另外，正如你提到的，我想补充一点：我认为他们在你第一个观点上——即中共的一些理念——获得了一个巨大优势，那就是许多美国公司最终都在这些开源模型的基础上构建产品，因为它们更便宜，而且你可以真正地对其进行修改。

Another, you know, and just to add on some of the things you said, like one big advantage I think they get on it, on your first point about, you know, some of the CCP kind of ideas is that a lot of the American companies end up building their products on top of these open source models because they're cheaper, because you can actually modify them.

你可以微调它们，像这样进行各种调整，而这些是无法对OpenAI的产品做到的。

You can like You can fine tune them and stuff like that in ways that you can't really fine tune OpenAI products.

然后这些技术就被整合进了像Airbnb这样的平台。

And then that gets built into like Airbnb, for example.

比如Airbnb就曾提到过，他们正在使用像Quan这样的模型来构建许多内部工具，对吧？

So like Airbnb has They've talked about this, how they You're using like the Quan models for a lot of their internal toolings, right?

所以，很多这类技术实际上已经被嵌入其中，许多美国企业正在不知不觉中将中共的情报能力整合进自己的系统，这有点令人不安。

So like a lot of these stuff, these things are actually being built in, like a lot of American business is having like CCP intelligence built into it, which is kind of scary.

这是另一个值得注意的策略。

That's one of the other kind of plays here.

但是，从HRF的角度来看，这其实是个很大的讽刺：你知道，我们的项目有两个核心支柱，对吧？

But yeah, I mean, is like a big, like this is kind of an irony from the HRF point of view is like, you know, we have like two kind of pillars of our program, right?

其中一个就是揭露专制政权如何利用人工智能来控制民众，而中国就是一个典型的例子。

Like one of them is like talking about how kind of exposing how dictatorships are using AI to control people, and the, know, China's like a big example there.

另一个是开源工具和开源模型的力量之类的东西。

And then the other one is the power of open source tools and open models and stuff like that.

所以一方面，中国人是反派，另一方面，他们又是英雄。

And so on one, like, the Chinese are the villain and the other, it's they're the hero.

对吧？

Right?

而真正的反派更像是那些美国公司。

And the villains are more of the American companies.

所以，我们只是坦诚公开地看待这个问题。

So it's like a, I mean, we're just honest and open about it.

这很矛盾，简直是一种矛盾。

It's like a big, it's a contradictory, it's kind of a contradiction.

其中一个困难在于，你不能指望OpenAI、Anthropic这些公司必然去开发开源模型，因为它们是领导者，拥有庞大的资本结构。

And think that, and one of the tough things is that like, you know, you can't really expect OpenAI and Anthropic and these companies necessarily to do the open source models because they're the leaders and they have this huge capital structure and stuff.

它们确实需要尽力封闭系统，但我认为再过几年，你会看到像斯坦福的学生之类的人，或者干脆自己开个实验室，就我们20个人，我觉得我们会看到更多专注于开源的AI实验室。

They like kind of have to try to lock it down, but I think given a few more years, you know, you're gonna have like classes of Stanford students and stuff like that, or just like, let's just start a lab, and just like 20 of us, and like, you know, I think we'll see more open source focused AI labs.

你也在其他领域看到这种现象了，对吧？

Like, you're seeing this in other things other than LLMs, right?

有很多来自美国公司的优秀开源模型，它们针对的是更细分的使用场景。

There's all kinds of like cool open source models that are from American companies that target like more niche use cases.

所以，这种现象确实在发生，但主要是在幕后，不仅在美国，欧洲也是如此。

So it's like, it is something that's happening, but it's in the background, not American, but European too.

Mistral 也开发了一些不错的模型。

The Mistral has made some good models as well.

这应该是法国的，我想。

That's like French, I think.

法国的，就是法国的。

The French it's French.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

所以我认为，这不会永远只是中国独大，但我也不确定。

So it is I do think there's going to be it's not gonna be like Chinese only forever, and but I don't know.

我本人并不擅长预测未来，也不知道我的话是否靠谱，我完全不声称自己有预见未来的能力，但我确实认为在未来几年我们会看到非常出色的美国大语言模型，我也认为我们会看到一些中国公司逐渐关闭。

I don't have a I don't have, like, I'm not good at forecasting and seeing the future either, so I don't know if my my words you know, I I have I have no I claim no ability to see the future here, but I do think we're gonna start seeing American LMs that are really good in the next couple years, and I do think that we're gonna see, you know, we're gonna see Chinese Yeah, companies closing down yeah.

我们肯定会看到，比如ChatGPT也在这方面做出了一些承诺，对吧？

We're gonna, yeah, we're gonna see, and for example, ChatGPT has made a commitment to do this to some extent too, right?

他们发布了他们的GPT开源模型，当时表现不错。

They released their GPT OSS models, which were good at the time.

但现在这些模型已经完全过时了，三个月后就没了，是的，没错。

They're now completely obsolete, know, Yeah, three months yeah, yeah.

但它们在当时是有竞争力的。

But they were they were competitive at the time.

谷歌有Gemma，所以美国的领先实验室确实也在一定程度上做出了这样的承诺。

Google has Gemma, so there is there is some commitment to do this from the American companies too, the the leading labs.

所以，我不确定。

So So, I don't know.

我的意思是，如果我错了请纠正我，它主要是面向移动端的。

Mean, it's correct me if I'm wrong is, like, mobile focused.

对吧？

Right?

有点吧。

Kind of.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

但你知道，它表现得还不错。

But it it you know, it's it's it's been good.

在基准测试中非常有竞争力。

It's a very competitive in benchmarks.

你只是觉得，你知道的，谷歌在过去两个月里几乎没有发布什么大语言模型相关的东西。

You just haven't, you know, Google hasn't really released anything LLM too much LLM stuff in the last, like, two months, it feels like.

他们在去年12月或今年1月的时候，大家都说谷歌简直太强了。

They were in, like, January everyone or in December, everyone's like, man, Google's, like, killing it.

现在他们反而有点被忽视了，尽管他们刚刚发布了一个非常出色的深度思考模型，直接碾压了所有基准测试。

Now they're kind of they become, like, a slight afterthought, although they did just release a, like, a really good, like, deep think model that just crushed all the benchmarks.

所以这暗示着

So that kinda hints that

Gemini Pro 3 非常出色。

they're The Gemini Pro Gemini Pro three is pretty great.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

他们刚刚发布了一个超级高级版本，据说非常出色，这通常意味着他们先发布最好的版本，然后再推出简化版的低成本版本。

They they they just released, like, a super high version of that that is apparently amazing, which hints usually, they, know, release the best one first, and then they follow on with, like, they distill it down to cheaper versions.

所以，我猜下个月就会推出一个非常棒的 Gemini Pro 4 之类的版本，没错。

So, you know, there will be, like, a really good gem of four or something in the next month, I bet, and yeah.

所以，我不确定。

So, I don't know.

我的意思是，这变化也太快了吧？

I mean, there's also it's it's so dynamic, right?

六个月前，Facebook 还是开源和美国开源领域的冠军。

Like, six months ago, Facebook was, like, the champion of open source, American open source.

他们当时完全支持开源模型，没想到转变这么快。

They were totally behind open models, you know, nothing has switched faster.

对吧？

Right?

现在他们彻底关闭了，完全改变了方向。

Like, now they're they're just they totally closed down, and they're they're all their direction changed.

所以，你知道吗，这里的黑马是苹果。

So and, you know, the the dark horse here is Apple.

对吧？

Right?

总有一天，苹果会把事情理顺，他们完全有能力打造一款售价5000美元、专注于AI的设备，比如放在你电脑上的东西——这一直是他们的风格。

Like, at some point, Apple's gonna get their shit together, and it's they they like, they're perfectly positioned to build, like, some amazing $5,000 AI focused, like, thing that goes on your computer or on your on your that's always what they do.

对吧？

Right?

或者在过去，如果他们的基因还在，他们总是最后一个入场的。

Or have in the past, if their DNA is still there, is they're they're always, like, the last mover.

嗯，我觉得有意思的是，这可能是阻碍我花一万美元买台该死电脑的最重要原因，当然还有其他很多理由。

Well, that's what I think is interest like, that's probably the biggest thing holding well, I mean, there's plenty of reasons holding me back from paying $10,000 for a fucking computer.

但有趣的是，Mac Studio，他们无意中撞上了——哦，我们提供了512GB统一内存。

But, like, the funny thing is, like, the Mac Studio, they accidentally stumbled into, Oh, we offer five twelve unified memory.

哇，这居然还真管用。

It's like, Oh, wow, it works.

他们将在未来一两年内推出真正为此设计的产品。

They're gonna build something that's actually designed for it in the next year or two.

而且我觉得人们想得太多了，比如OpenAI聘用了乔尼·艾维，来思考未来与AI代理的交互会是什么样子？

Also, I think there's like tons of overthinking, like OpenAI hire Johnny Ive on like, what does interacting with AI agents look like in the future?

其实，它可能看起来像iPhone或AirPods。

Well, like, it probably looks something like an iPhone or AirPods.

就像

Like

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

还有你的手表。

And like your watch.

比如Apple Watch、iPhone、AirPods，这种用户体验可能依然适用。

Like Apple Watch, Apple phone, Apple AirPods, that UX may still make sense.

对吧？

Right?

你主要是在和你的代理对话。

You're mostly talking to your agents.

所以你需要某种麦克风。

So you're gonna need some kind of microphone.

你仍然需要看东西，有时也需要打字。

You're still gonna need to see things, and you're going to need to type things sometimes.

所以你需要一块带屏幕的平板。

So you're going to need a slab with a screen on it.

然后你需要一个放在家里的盒子，就像手机一样。

And then you're going to need some box that's cell phones at home.

所以在所谓的私有端和专有端，我认为苹果完全有能力应对这一点。

So on the quote unquote private side, but proprietary side, I think Apple is perfectly positioned to handle this.

天啊。

Oh my god.

他们像做手机一样自己制造芯片。

They make their own chips, like their phones.

我在最新的iPhone上运行本地模型，你知道，它确实能工作，对吧？

I run local models on my on like the latest gen iPhone and you know, it works, right?

但它仍然非常初级。

Like it's still very rudimentary.

但很明显，这是目前最好的硬件。

But it's clearly the best hardware out there.

他们一直以隐私保护建立品牌。

And they've made their brand on privacy stuff.

所以在这方面，苹果的位置非常理想。

So like on that side, Apple's like perfectly positioned.

而另一方面，让我觉得特别有趣的是，我真的认为谷歌的位置也非常理想，只不过这是从隐私的反面来看的。

Then on the other side, what's really interesting to me is I really do think Google's perfectly positioned and it's but it's more from the opposite of privacy.

但有趣的是，我觉得很多人——尤其是资本分配者——在一年前、两年前错误地认为，这会摧毁谷歌的搜索业务。

But it's funny because I think a lot of people incorrectly, especially capital allocators incorrectly, like a year ago, two years ago, saying this is going to kill Google search business.

但我认为他们忽略了一个关键点，我们从Claw身上也看到了，人们确实对将敏感信息输入这些系统持谨慎态度。

But I think the big piece they missed was, and we see this with Claw, people rightfully are hesitant to put sensitive information into these things.

但这么多企业已经在使用G Suite了。

But so many businesses already run on G Suite.

谷歌已经掌握了你的日历、所有邮件和你的文档。

Like, Google already has your calendar, has all your emails, has your documents.

人们通过他们进行视频会议。

People do conference calls through them.

你已经选择了他们作为入口。

They're already you already gate.

你早就做出了这个决定。

You already made that decision.

你的公司五年前就已经决定，要信任谷歌来处理你所有的敏感信息。

Your company made that decision five years ago that you're gonna trust Google with all your sensitive shit.

如果敏感信息本来就存在那里，你更有可能使用他们的智能工具，而不是把数据导出并交给其他人来处理。

If the sensitive shit's already there, it's way more likely for you to use their agent tooling than it is for you to export that data and trust someone else.

是的。

Yeah.

这其中的一个讽刺是，到目前为止所有大型科技公司的集成都彻底失败了，比如微软Copilot、苹果AI，所有这些产品都糟透了，对吧？

This is one of the ironies is like all the big tech integrations so far have been just absolute flops, you know, like like Microsoft Copilot, Apple Intelligence, like everything here has been terrible, right?

没有一个成功，但我认为未来六个月里情况可能会改变。

Nothing has worked and I think that's probably gonna change in the next six months.

它们都会以OpenClaw为榜样，心想：好吧，这就是人们想要的，这可能会带来巨大改变。

They're all gonna just take the cue from OpenClaw and just be like, okay, this is what people want and that could really change.

关于OpenClaw的一个有趣之处是，你在推特上看到，很多推动它的人都是小企业主，他们经营着小型代理机构或小生意，并自动化了一些业务流程，所以我认为这

One of the interesting thing about OpenClaw is that you see, at least on Twitter, you see a lot of the people who are like leading it are like small business people where they have like a little agency, they have like a little thing, and they automate some of their business workflows, and so I think that's

将会成为Marty和TFTC的典范。

gonna Like be Marty and TFTC.

是的，没错。

Yeah, exactly.

他正是这一情况的完美例子。

Like that's he's a perfect example of this.

很多都是小企业主，像个体经营者这样的人，他们在用户采用方面正引领着OpenClaw的发展，对吧？我认为这很有趣，所以我觉得一旦谷歌或微软把这些东西整合好，他们就会开始使用。

It's a lot of like small business people, like sole proprietor type people who are who are paving leading the way from like a user and adoption standpoint on OpenClaw, right, and and so I think that's that's kind of interesting, so I think that's probably gonna be the and and, you know, they'll they'll once it's in Google or Microsoft, they'll use it if these companies get their shit together.

关于谷歌的另一点有趣的是，它们完全是垂直整合的。

The other thing about Google that's interesting is, like, they're totally vertically integrated.

对吧？

Right?

它们有自己的模型。

They have models.

它们有自己的数据中心。

They have data centers.

它们有自己的TPU芯片。

They have TPUs.

它们有自己的芯片架构。

They're they have their own architecture for the chips.

对吧？

Right?

而且他们还拥有更多的数据。

And they also have, like, so much more data.

我看到过Cloudflare的一个数据，说谷歌的爬虫在网页上抓取的数据量是独立爬虫的3.7倍。

It's like I saw something from Cloudflare where it's like their Google's crawlers see, like, 3.7 times more data on the web than, like, a unaffiliated crawler does.

我不太清楚具体是怎么运作的，但他们确实能接触到其他人无法访问的网络部分，这得益于他们庞大的爬虫基础设施，因此他们在数据爆发中拥有更多这种‘数字黄金’，这很有趣，但我也不确定。

They just, like I I don't understand exactly how it works, but it's, they just are able to see parts of the web that other people don't because of their massive crawler infrastructure, and so they they have more of that that digital gold for this data boom that's interesting, but, yeah, I don't know.

我觉得，是的，这非常有趣，我不知道它会走向何方，但我认为在未来一年里，它将从根本上改变很多事物。

I think, yeah, I think it's very interesting and I have no idea where it's going, but I think in the next year, it's going to be something that like fundamentally transforms many, many things.

我跟马蒂说过，我觉得接下来的几年，我们可能会经历一种感觉，仿佛五年内发生了整整一个世纪的变化，对吧？

Like I was saying to Marty, I think that, you know, the next, like, couple years, we could have, like, almost like a it could feel like five the next five years, it could feel like a century happens, right?

五年后，我们的生活方式可能会截然不同，而我甚至一年前都没想过这一点。

Like, we're just the way we live our lives could be very different in five years, and I didn't think this even, like, a year ago.

就在过去六个月里，我变得非常确信。

I've just been really convinced in the last six months.

我最早是通过‘氛围编程’亲身体验到的，那时候我一个人的效率，竟然超过了两年前十人甚至十五人的团队。

Like, I saw it first for myself with, like, vibe coding where I could like, I felt like me by myself became much more effective than if I had a team of 10 people two years ago, right, or 15 people.

对吧？

Right?

所以这将会非常疯狂。

So it's going to be be wild.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，它正在飞速加速。

Mean, it's just accelerating so quickly.

是的。

Yeah.

你对关于失业的担忧有什么看法？

What is your what is on what is your opinion on like the concerns over job loss?

我觉得这将会造成极大的冲击。

I think it's going to be incredibly disruptive.

我的意思是，我不确定。

Like, I I don't know.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我对是否会出现完全取代我们的东西持中立态度。

I'm kind of agnostic on whether we ever get something that totally replaces us.

我只是无法对此进行推理。

It's just I can't reason about it.

但即使这些技术在我们做的每一件事上都变得更好，很可能仍然是我来操作它会更好。

But even, you know, even if we have even if these things get better at literally everything we do, it still probably is the case that it's better if I'm piloting it.

比如，即使人工智能超级智能，各方面都比我强，我与它协作可能仍然比它单独运作更好。

Like, even if the AI is, like, super intelligent and better than me in every way, me working with the thing will probably still be better than the thing in itself.

就像，你可能仍然能增添一些价值。

Like, you still can probably add something.

所以它必须得变得非常、非常遥远。

So it's going to have to be, like, really, really way That far

人不会被解雇。

person doesn't get fired.

被解雇的是他下面的十到二十个员工。

It's the 10 people 20 people that work underneath him that gets fired.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

我真的认为，很多人会失去工作。

I do I do think that I do think that it's it's I do think that I do think that lots of people are gonna lose their jobs.

我真的觉得会大规模裁员，至少如果完全由市场力量决定的话，我认为在整个过程中市场力量无法正常运作，对吧？

I do think that there's just gonna be massive, massive layoffs and, like, at least if market forces I don't I don't think market forces are going to be able to operate during this whole time, right?

如果市场力量发挥作用，未来几年内可能有90%的人会被裁员，这将造成极大的动荡。

Like, if market forces operate, like, 90% of people are gonna get, laid off or something, like, over the next couple years, and, it's just gonna be incredibly disruptive.

我认为，很有可能会出现新的工作方式，最终再次实现充分就业，但即使如此，中间也会经历一个极其动荡的时期，而我认为政府不会任由市场力量独自主导这一切，因为这会让政客们大肆炒作。

And I think I I do think there's a really good chance that we're able to like, new ways of working will grow that can lead to full employment again, but even if that happens, there's gonna be a really, really disruptive period in the middle, and I don't think governments will let this play out with market forces alone because it just, like, it will be two it'll it'll be two politicians will have a heyday with this.

所以那就是

So that's

这简直就像一场革命。

There's just kinda being one revolutions.

是的。

Yeah.

另一件事是，我认为自二战以来，我们越来越形成一个全球性的共同体，越来越紧密，对吧？

The other thing is that I think that we're going to like, like, the last like, since World War II, it's like we have this more and more we have like one kinda global community, more and more, right, where it's like

对。

Right.

我不记得了，十年前我去过尼泊尔，当时我在一座寺庙里，去附近一家餐厅，那个服务员居然想给我播放他的饶舌合辑视频。

I don't know, like, remember I went to Nepal like ten years ago and like, there I was at like a monastery and I went to get like a restaurant nearby and the guy wanted to play me his rap mix tapes on YouTube.

我当时就愣住了，什么？

I was just like, what?

你知道吗？

You know?

这就像街角咖啡店里的普通人会做的事一样。

You know, it's like something that someone down the street would would attempt to say at my local coffee shop or so.

我不知道。

I don't know.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我们所有人都被卷入了一种全球文化，变得越来越相似，而互联网在过去二十年里极大地推动了这一点。

Like, so it's we're we're we're we've all been sort of sucked into like one global culture and one global you know, we've become more and more and more similar, and the internet drove that a lot in the last, like, twenty years.

但现在我们开始看到这种趋势逆转了，对吧？比如很多 GitHub 项目、开源项目现在不再允许人们随意贡献了，因为一年前，GitHub 的贡献需要通过测试来证明工作量。

And we're starting to see that reverse, right, where like a lot of GitHub projects, open source projects are now not letting people be just contribute like, willy nilly, because there was a proof of work there was proof of work attached to, like, a GitHub contribution that could pass tests a year ago.

是的，这意味着有人真正坐下来理解了事物的工作原理，直到让它运行起来，但现在可能只是有人给代码助手写了一句话，然后就完成了。

Yeah, it actually means somebody sat down and understood how things work enough to get it to work, and now that could just be someone wrote one sentence in a coding agent and Right.

现在这些贡献完全没有工作量证明了，所以你看到，这里的前沿趋势是，那些大型热门的开源项目正开始关闭贡献通道，实施某种信任网络，加强身份验证，转向更基于关系的模式，对吧？

There's zero proof of work attached to it now, so you see, like, the tip of the spear here is like big popular open source projects are starting to close down and enforce some level of web of trust and enforce some level of authentication and stuff like that and making it more relationship based, right?

你在 Twitter 上也看到了类似的情况，对吧？

You're also seeing this on like Twitter, right?

比如 Twitter 上到处都是机器人。

Like Twitter is like, there's just bots everywhere.

这都是垃圾。

It's slop.

全是垃圾。

It's all slop.

在我看来，公众几乎已经被毁掉了，对吧？

It's all like the public is kinda, in my opinion, almost like destroyed, right?

你根本没法在外面待下去，这正是让我对Nostr更加看好原因之一。

Like you're just not going to be out, and this is one of the things that's making me much more positive on Noster.

我确实注意到了这一点。

I've actually noticed this.

不错。

Nice.

我注意到，现在一上X，我的心率就会飙升。

I noticed this, like I, my heart rate goes up when I go on X now.

就像置身于战场一样，这让人兴奋，因为我能看到未来正在发生，能看到AI从业者在做什么，能看到人们在比特币上做的所有酷炫事情；但当我进入Nostr时，感觉就像在本地公园里，我的朋友们都在那儿，这感觉就像一个宁静的公园，而公共互联网对我来说则有点像战场。

Like it's just like, it feels like I'm in a war zone and it's exciting because it's like, this is the I see the future happening and I can see what all of the AI people are doing and I can see all the cool things people are doing with Bitcoin and stuff, it's like, I don't know, kinda like and I go into Nostrand, it feels like I'm in my local neighborhood park and it's like, there's my buddies, and it's like it's not like a big it feels like a park, and the public Internet feels like a war zone to me a little bit.

你取笑我了。

Well, you made fun of me.

你取笑Nostrand了。

You made fun of Nostrand.

你说这是Odell的精品群聊，这反而是好事。

You said it's Odell's artisanal group chat, and that's the positive.

对吧？

Right?

结果证明，你对这些事的看法既有对也有错。

That turns out you were both right and wrong with that stuff.

所以，这个趋势一直都在发生，对吧？

Well, so this trend has been happening, right?

过去十年，实际上互联网上的很多活动都发生在群聊里，对吧？

The last ten years, it's like so much of the actual internet is happening in group chats, right?

人们一直在退出。

Like, people have been opting out.

刻薄，这其实是觉醒文化的一种遗产，对吧？

Mean, that's like one of the legacies of wokeness, right?

我的意思是，不仅仅是觉醒文化的政治理论层面，还有那种不容忍，对吧？

Like, lot of people of like the I mean, not just like the political side of wokeness, but the intolerance, right?

不是说要完全否定对错的意识形态。

Like not the take away all the ideology on like what is right or wrong.

其中很大一部分是对其他观点的不容忍，对吧？

There's a big element of it that was intolerance for like other viewpoints, right?

因此，其中一个副作用就是大家都转向了群聊。

And so one of the side effects there is everyone migrated to group chats.

你不再像2012年那样在推特上表达自己的真实想法了，对吧？

You stopped saying what you thought on Twitter like you did in 2012, right?

而是开始在群聊里说这些话。

And you started saying it in group chats.

所以过去十年，公共互联网已经被群聊分割成了一个个社区，对吧？

So like the public internet has been carved into neighborhoods in the last ten years with group chats, right?

我认为Nostr对我来说是朝这个方向迈出的一步，我的意思是，它实际上是接受了这一现实，对吧？

And I think Nostrad to me is like a step in that direction of, I mean, it's like an embrace of that fact, right?

所以这就是为什么我对Nostr越来越感兴趣，我变得比以前更兴奋了。

And so that's why I'm excited about, I've become much more excited about Nostr.

它是一种更本地化的互联网体验。

It's like a more local experience of the internet.

它具备互联网的许多优势，但你不会被机器人彻底摧毁，因为我们内置了这种信任网络。

It has many of the benefits of the internet, but you're not, it's going to be more resistant to just being like shredded by bots because we have this like, you know, web of trust kinda built into it.

这也让我对像Marmot这样的东西更感兴趣了，比如通过Nostr进行群聊之类的功能。

And I'm all that also makes me more excited about stuff like, you know, Marmot, like this group chat, you know, being able to chat over Noster, stuff like that.

嗯，具体来说，要明确一点，Nostr是一个开放协议。

Well, mean, specifically, to be clear here, Noster's an open protocol.

所以肯定会有很多机器人、很多垃圾信息，但酷的地方在于，因为它是开放协议，你可以自由使用，无需获得许可。

So there's gonna be tons of bots and tons of slob and But all this other the cool part is because it's an open protocol, you can use it as you as you want without permission.

所以我同意Justin的观点，我们会看到越来越多的小型社区使用可验证的信任网络。

And so I agree with Justin that we'll basically see, you know, these smaller communities pop up that are using verifiable webs of trust.

而长期以来阻碍这一切发展的最后一个问题是：用户该如何管理信任网络呢？

And then, the last piece that has been holding it all back in a lot of ways is, well, how is a user gonna manage webs of trust?

bots 会帮他们管理。

Well, the bots will manage it.

这真是个讽刺。

Like, that's the irony.

讽刺的是，bots 会帮你管理信任网络，以防止 bot 泛滥。

The irony is the bots will manage your webs of trust to keep the bot swap out.

是的。

Yeah.

这有点像

Which kind

一个粗略的比喻，但你的 bot 就像是你的互联网安全套。

of a crude analogy, but your bot is gonna be like your Internet condom.

这就是它的作用，你知道的？

Like, that's what it's gonna be, you know?

这就像一种保护机制，让你在 navigating 这个越来越肮脏的网络环境时保持安全，所以，是的，我认为这将很好地契合 Nostrand 的理念。

It's like the thing to keep you safe as you, navigate this, you know, increasingly dirty place, and so, yeah, I think that is going to play really well into into Nostrand.

你知道，中心化平台应对的方式就是直接关闭内容，对吧？

You know, the ways that the centralized platforms are gonna deal with is they're just gonna shut stuff down, right?

一个月后，你可能就得上传身份证或进行人脸识别才能登录 Nostrand，所有平台都会这么做，对吧？

In a month, you're gonna have to, like, upload ID or do a face scan to get into Nostrand, They're all gonna do this, right?

这样一来，Nostrand 的价值主张就会更加凸显，对吧？

And so then Noster's value proposition will shine further, right?

它就像是抗审查的，对吧？

It's like censorship resistant, right?

你可以随时发布内容，随时传达你的信息。

Like, you can always publish, and you can always get your message out.

而当你在传统平台上越来越难做到这一点时，人们可能会开始在意，因为过去几年，如果你跟人们说这些，他们根本不在乎，因为他们通常还是能在中心化社交媒体上发出自己的声音。

And as your inability to do that on the traditional platforms decreases, people might start to care, because people don't, like, the in last couple of years, if you tell people this, they don't care because they can get generally can kind of get their message out on the centralized social media.

但我认为五年后情况就不会这样了。

And I don't see that being the case in five years.

是的。

Yeah.

这已经不太成立了。

It's already kind of not the case.

这已经是

It's already The the

对我来说，疯狂的部分是，觉醒运动引发了取消文化之战，而现在它已经蔓延开了。

crazy part to me is the woke movement started the cancel culture war stuff, and now it's spread.

现在，每种意识形态都在互联网上组织起私刑队伍，去解雇住在世界另一端的人。

Now it's like, every ideology is just releasing lynch mobs on the internet to fire someone that lives on the other side of the world.

如果你想解雇自己孩子的老师，这还说得通，但如果你在社交媒体上试图解雇一个跟你住在不同国家的老师，那就是完全不同的事情了。

It's one thing if you want to fire your own kid's teacher, but it's a completely different thing if you're on social trying to fire a teacher that lives in a different country than you.

这真是个疯狂的概念。

It's just a wild concept.

每次我登录互联网，都感觉又有一个取消文化的群体在试图阻止某件事。

I just, it feels like every time you log into the internet, there's another cancel culture mob trying to stop something.

是的。

Yep.

这只会加速这一切。

Which is just going to hasten it all.

那里有两方面，对吧？

There was two pieces there, right?

那就是失业。

There was job loss.

然后，世界在很多方面变得越来越小。

And then there was basically the world getting smaller in a lot of ways.

嗯。

Mhmm.

工作

The job

失业，是的。

loss Yeah.

让我再好好想想这个问题。

Let me think about this more.

比如，它们是有点相关的，你知道吗，因为我一直很喜欢这个想法。

Like, they're kinda related, you know, because I think like, I've always been a fan.

我一直喜欢那种生活在小镇上的感觉，比如人口大约五千人的地方，了解这里的一切，像这样

I always liked this idea of like having, like, I like being in a small town, like, you know, with like 5,000 people, like understanding Try this like

一个小城镇。

a small town.

是的，没错。

It's yeah, exactly.

就像你不能随便乱来。

It's like it's like you can't kinda f around quite as much.

人与人之间的社会信任要多得多。

There's a lot more like social trust.

去一家咖啡店很有趣，那里店员知道你的名字，可能还是个高中生，你知道他们的父母，或者类似的情况，你懂我的意思吧？

It's like fun to go to a coffee shop where the barista knows your name and is like some kid at the high school and like, you know, you know their parents and they or whatever, you know what I mean?

我父母是在小镇长大的，小时候我去拜访时，总觉得那种社会信任和人际关系的纽带特别美好，而我从小在大城市长大，一辈子都住在大城市，错过了这种氛围。我认为未来会发生的是，过去五十年，或者说整个工业革命以来，人们为了追求大城市的繁荣而离开小镇。但如果越来越多的人无法参与全球经济——因为你需要精通管理这些AI代理——那么你将看到人口的重新分布，这会在人口分布上产生重新调整，对吧？

Like, my parents grew up in a small town and whenever I'd visit as a kid, I always thought that was it was kinda neat how you had this like fabric of kinda social trust and relationship that I missed out growing up in a big city and living in big cities my whole life, and I think what's going to happen is, you know, over the last, like, fifty year or, you know, the whole industrial revolution has been like, you know, people leaving that to pursue prosperity in these big cities, and I think if more people aren't able to participate in the global economy because you need to be, like, an expert at managing these AI agents, like, I think what you're gonna have is, like, a redistribution of the pop It's gonna redistribute demographically, right?

会有更多人离开，回到乡村，对吧？

Like, more people are going to leave and go back, move to the country, right?

这是新冠疫情留下的影响之一。

Like, that's one of the legacies of COVID.

至少在美国是这样，对吧？

It's like, at least The US, right?

很多人开始离开城市，对吧？

A lot of the people started leaving the cities, right?

这是我第一次认真考虑过。

I considered it for the first time.

其他人也第一次考虑过，所以这种趋势其实已经开始了。我认为这从去中心化的角度看很有趣，人口将会逐渐分散。我认为这带来了很多积极的影响，尤其是如果你依然能使用互联网工具，比如Noster，可以与世界各地的人协调。但随着工作机会减少，会有大量人离开大城市，更分散地生活。某种程度上，他们会被迫这么做；但另一方面，你或许能过上比在大城市里当机器奴隶更体面一点的生活。

Other people considered it for the first time, so it's kind of already started, and so I think that's kind of interesting from like a decentralization, like the population's gonna kind of decentralize, and I think there's a lot of really positive things about that, especially if you remain, you know, you still have an internet like thing like Noster, where you can coordinate with people all over the world, but it's going to be, you know, as you have job loss, you're going to have a lot of people leave these big cities and kinda distribute more, and I think in some sense, they'll be forced to, but in another sense, you know, you can have like maybe more, a little bit more of a dignified life in some ways than being a, you know, a slave to the machine in the big cities.

是的。

Yeah.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我的意思是，我刚刚查了一下。

I mean, so I look I just looked up.

谷歌有19万名员工。

Google has a 190,000 employees.

天啊。

Jeez.

他们在做什么？

What are they doing?

其中大多数人正在被裁员。

Most of those people are getting fired.

这个想法是，是的。

This idea that yeah.

继续说。

Go on.

你看到那个关于推特的数据了吗？据说在埃隆接手前，他们有大约5000名员工。

Did you see that stat about Twitter where it was, like, their Nikita whatever was saying how, like, pre Elon, they had, like, 5,000 employees?

现在，至少产品团队——我不确定，但他们肯定还有很多律师。

And now at least the product team, don't think they, know, because they surely they have many lawyers.

但产品团队大概只有30名工程师、两名设计师、一名产品经理和他本人。

But, like, the product team was, like, 30 engineers, two designers, a product manager, and him.

所以实际上运行产品的团队大概只有35人左右，而以前则是5000人。

So there's, like, 35 people basically running the actual product, whereas previously, was, like, 5,000.

所以如果算上所有律师和合规人员，可能大概有100人左右。

So it's probably more like a 100 if you include all the lawyers and regulatory

stuff.

stuff.

埃隆插话了。

Bit Elon chimed in there.

这有点让人困惑，因为他没把整个xAI团队算进去。

It was a little bit confusing because there was more There's a whole x AI team that he wasn't including.

而且，越来越多的X正在成为xAI的获客入口，无论是在数据训练还是前端使用方面。

And like more and more x is just a top of funnel for x AI, both on the data training and front end usage.

是的。

Yeah.

但我认为这更像是一个预警信号。

But I think that's kind of a canary.

通过AI来变现社交平台，这正是他目前正在做的。

Monetize social via the AI stuff, which is what he's doing right now.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，Square Block大约有一万名员工。

I mean, Square block has, I think, 10,000 employees.

他们到底都在做些什么呢？

It's like, what do they all do?

是的。

Yeah.

你还记得疫情期间吗？

And you remember during COVID times, right?

当时让人愤怒的是那些TikTok视频，展示一些随机的女性管理者坐在海滩上，说：‘这就是我整天做的事。’

It was like the things that would trigger people were like the TikTok videos of random woman in management sitting on the beach, and she's like, This is what I do all day.

你根本什么都没做。

Like, You don't do anything.

是的。

Yeah.

那两个产品经理女孩，她们正在解释自己的工作，我正好在想这件事。

Those two product manager girls who are, like, explaining their jobs at I'm the thinking about that exact thing.

是的。

Yeah.

那些女孩太搞笑了。

Those girls are hilarious.

他们没问题。

They're fine.

我觉得他们当时已经满了，他们

I think they were full They're

没有工作，接下来该怎么办？

not gonna have a job, and what do they do next?

我不太清楚，我不知道那条路是什么。

I don't, like, I don't know what the path is there.

是的。

Yep.

当埃隆说高收入人群时，我们正被这个世界最富有的人严重误导。

And it's very much, we're very much getting gaslit by the richest man in the world, Elon, when he says Universal people that have high income is what he's telling people.

这个想法就像是，我要造一台超级机器，只要你交出控制权，它就能印钱，而你只需相信我会与你分享。

This idea, it's like, I'm going to build this like super machine that's going to, like, print money if you give me control over it, and you just have to trust me that I'll share it with you.

这基本上就是共产主义的价值主张，对吧？

It's like, that's like the value proposition of communism basically, right?

所以，这正是我们一直以来对人工智能持怀疑态度的原因，而这也是埃隆当前的论点，简直荒谬至极，因为你知道，中产阶级的形成前提是掌权者依赖于他们，对吧？

So it's like, this is the thing that we've all been skeptical about AI all along, and this is Elon's like current talking point, and it's so, like, utterly stupid because, you know, like, a middle class only forms if like a, you know, the people who are in charge depend on them, Right?

所以，如果你生活在一个精英阶层不再依赖中产阶级来实现繁荣的世界里，那么一两代人之后，中产阶级就会消失。

So if you ever have a world where, you know, elites don't depend on a middle class for prosperity, you're not gonna have a middle class after a generation or two.

它可能会维持一段时间，但这就是为什么是这样的。

Like, it'll last for a while, but that's why yeah.

我的意思是，我认为靠全民基本收入来维持这种局面的想法，大概不会奏效。

I mean, I I think this idea that, like, you're gonna be able to hold it up with UBI is is kind of it's probably not gonna work very well.

是的。

Yeah.

我不敢说自己知道会发生什么。

I don't pretend to know, like, what happens.

我只是觉得

I just The

激励机制已经乱了套。

incentives are chaotic.

那里的激励机制很糟糕。

The incentives are bad there.

比如，要让关系发挥作用，就必须存在某种相互依赖，而埃隆提出的方案完全没有相互依赖。

Like, you're just not going to like, has to be there has to be some, like, reciprocal dependence for a relationship to work and the thing that Elon is proposing has no reciprocal dependence.

对吧？

Right?

这纯粹是一厢情愿的事。

It's, like, purely a one way thing.

就是一句‘相信我，兄弟’。

It's a trust me, bro.

你知道的。

You know?

是的。

Yeah.

我相当确定，他知道他在撒谎。

I'm pretty, I'm pretty sure he knows he's lying.

除非他真的相信全民基本收入就意味着是的。

Unless he, like, believes that universal high income means Yeah.

你会进入一个舱室，自己连接上静脉输液，生活在虚拟现实里，拥有所有你想要的东西，quote, unquote。

You'll go in a pod and you'll connect the IV to yourself and you'll live in VR and you'll have everything quote, unquote, everything you want.

是的。

Yeah.

他是个有趣的人。

He's an interesting guy.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我认为他经常撒谎，然后自己却相信了。

I think he I think he often lies and then believes it.

你知道的？

You know?

我的意思是，我认为他相信自己说的话，但那明显是个谎言。

Like, that's what I think he believes what he's saying, but it's also, like, clearly a lie.

比如，你能找到很多东西来支持自己。

Like, there's a lot you you can find all

各种各样的东西。

kinds of things to himself.

是的。

Yeah.

比如，他们当时是怎么管理的，你知道的，为什么这个 yeah。

Like, how they were managing, you know, why this yeah.

比如，他过去就有过很多完全胡说八道的例子，明显在撒谎。

Like, there's there's all kinds of examples of him being, like, totally full of shit in the past, like, just just clearly lying.

但我认为他其实也相信这些话。

But I think he also believes it.

你知道吗？

You know?

我不知道。

I don't know.

是的。

Yeah.

我只是觉得，特别是如果你是一家之主，正在听这个节目，你的家人依赖着你。

Well, I just think particularly if you're ahead of a household, you're listening to the show right now, you know, your family relies on you.

我不是说我知道答案，但你得做好准备。

Like, you just I don't pretend to have the answer, but you like, you gotta prepare yourself.

我喜欢他们的主要头衔，是的，其中很多都会很糟糕。

I like their major And title is yes, a lot of them will be bad.

我认为其中很多也会很好。

I think a lot of them will be good too.

我认为混乱中蕴含着机遇。

I think with chaos comes opportunity.

我的意思是，过去三周我一直在玩爪子，这极大地赋能了那些意识到需求并抓住机会的人。

And I mean, just playing around with claw for the last three weeks, it does empower individuals in a massive way to those who realize the need and seize it.

但如果你措手不及，你的家人可能会多年、甚至几十年承受后果。

But if you get caught flat footed here, your family could pay the repercussions for years, decades, in

我的观点。

my opinion.

我觉得，像你这样的听众，在某种意义上就像一群套利者。

And one one one way I think about people who are, like, your audience is, like, in some sense, it's like a class of, like, arbitragers.

对吧？

Right?

他们是这样一群人，比如，玩比特币就有点像一种主动套利——你理解了社会的某种现状，知道它正在崩溃，而你看到了那边的机会。

They're they're they're people who, like, do some kinda art, like you know, huddling Bitcoin is kind of like an ar an active arbitrage where you, like, understand something about your society, okay, this is falling apart, and I see an opportunity over there.

所以从某种意义上说，如果你做套利，那么混乱在某种程度上总是好事，因为机会往往就出现在那里。

So in some sense, like, like, if you do arbitrage, like, chaos is always good in some sense because, like, that's where opportunities happen.

这里将会出现很多机会，但我觉得你得有点偏执才行，因为确实会有一些方面非常艰难，大多数人还没做好准备；但你过去作为比特币爱好者所培养的那种警觉性，将会变得极其有用。

So there's going to be there are there are going to be many, like, opportunities here, but it's something you have to be kinda paranoid about, I think, because it is it is, like, yeah, there's just it's I think it's going it there's gonna be aspects about this that are gonna be really rough and most people aren't gonna be prepared, but, you know, the the sort of paranoia that you build being a Bitcoin hobbler for a period of time is going to become very, very, very useful, I think.

那我们来谈谈吧，我同意。

So let's talk about I agree.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，不仅仅是比特币所培养的那种心态，或者被比特币吸引的那类人，而且如果你持有比特币一段时间，你实际上会拥有财务上的灵活性。

I mean, and and just even not only the mindset that Bitcoin breeds into people or that try like the type of people that get attracted to Bitcoin, but also the fact that like, if you've been holding Bitcoin for a little bit, you actually have financial flexibility.

你至少拥有一些财务独立性，能够自己想办法解决问题。

You have at least some level of financial independence where you can figure things out.

我有一些普通朋友是工薪阶层，收入还不错，但完全没有任何储蓄。

I have normie friends that are working class, they make a decent amount of money, but they have no savings whatsoever.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

而这些人显然会面临更大的困难。

And those people obviously are gonna have a lot more difficulty.

他们在未来应对时的容错空间会少得多。

Gonna be have a lot less margin of error in terms of how they proceed next.

在某些地方，他们别无选择。

In in certain places, they won't have a choice.

对吧？

Right?

如果你一直在储蓄，你就拥有选择权。

And if you've been saving, you will have a choice.

我想聊聊Marmot。

I wanna talk about Marmot Yeah.

使用Noster作为私信机制。

Using Noster as a DM mechanism.

是的。

Yeah.

Marvin是由White Noise团队开发的开放协议。

And so Marvin is the open protocol built by the white noise guys Yeah.

我以前在Dispatch上邀请过他们。

Who I've had on the past on dispatch.

所以这些极客对这一点相对了解。

So the freaks are relatively aware of it.

我的意思是，从高层次来看，Noster 的私信功能一直停滞不前。

I mean, I think the power of Noster Noster DMs have kind of languished for a while, high level.

我从来没有用过它。

It's something that I've never used.

它们根本就没怎么正常工作过。

They just never really worked.

从来没人花时间去修复它们。

No one ever really spent the time trying to fix them.

当时它们面对的已经是巨大的网络效应了。

There was already such huge network effects that they were battling against.

你知道，WhatsApp 几乎把每个活着的人都变成了用户。

Know, WhatsApp basically has every living person as a user.

是的。

Yep.

出生率是唯一能阻止 WhatsApp 增长的因素。

The birth rate is the only thing that stops WhatsApp growth.

我认为 Telegram 报告称其用户有十五亿，而 Signal 这个我总是作为成功扩展、注重自由与隐私的工具的典范，却只有整整一亿用户，相比巨头来说简直微不足道，但依然非常成功。

I think Telegram reports like one and a half billion users on Telegram Signal, which is like the project that I always point to as a the ideal successful scaling, freedom ish privacy focused tool only has a 100,000,000 users, which just is like a drop in the water compared to the big players, but still massively successful.

我每天都会用 Signal 来处理我的业务和家人事务等等。

I use signal every day for my businesses and my family and whatnot.

我非常感激这个项目的存在。

I'm really grateful that project exists.

但我觉得人们当时认为，哦，好吧，Nostr DMs 可以放着不管，我们还有其他工具。

But there I think people thought like, oh, okay, you know, NostradMs can languish and we have these other tools.

然后你开始设置这些代理，试图连接到这些中心化的科技巨头的垃圾系统，结果根本行不通。

Then you're like setting up these agents and you're like trying to connect to these centralized big tech bullshit, and it just doesn't work.

它直接撞上了墙。

It just hits a wall.

你撞上了一堵中心化、专有的墙，而从历史上看，这堵墙的设计初衷本来就是为了把机器人挡在外面，但你又必须让机器人连接进去，才能和它聊天交流。

It's like you hit this centralized proprietary wall that in a lot of ways historically has been designed to keep bots out in the first place, and you need your bot to connect to it in order to communicate with it and have a chat with it.