本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
是什么让你有信心去做以前没人做过的事情？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是，
One of my
想想你老板的老板需要什么。
favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有很多不同的形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，要想成就大事，就得敢想。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博森主持CNBC的“变革者”和“权力玩家”节目。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.
每周二更新新一期，无论你在哪里收听播客都能找到。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
从纽约时代广场中心的纳斯达克市场现场直播。
Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square.
这里是《快钱》节目。
This is fast money.
今晚的节目内容如下。
Here's what's on tap tonight.
支持数据中心热潮，高盛、贝莱德、黑石等华尔街巨头联手英伟达，筹集5000亿美元来资助人工智能建设。
Backing the data center boom, a group of Wall Street heavyweights from Goldman and black rock to Blackstone and more teaming up with Nvidia to raise $500,000,000,000 to finance the AI build out.
接下来是详细内容和市场影响。
The details and the market impact straight ahead.
另外，原油价格也在上涨。
Plus crude on the climb.
WTI和布伦特原油大幅上涨，因为四条海峡的关闭状态仍未解除。
WTI and Brent surging higher as the straight of four moves remains closed.
另外，有消息称战略石油储备的水平已经低到自荷兰橡树镇的疯吃者登顶排行榜以来从未见过的程度。
Also, news that the SPR is sitting at levels not seen since Mad Eater from Holland Oaks topped the charts.
你真的没听懂吗？
Did you really not get it fast?
那可不是我写的。
And I did not write that.
我们稍后会深入探讨。
Will go inside.
太不可思议了。
Incredible.
这些数字马上就来。
Numbers coming up.
稍后，我们来看看伯克希尔股价突破背后的原因。
And later, what's behind the Berkshire breakout?
评级下调影响了苹果的股价，还有我们的一位交易员为什么在爱彼迎的股票上安了家。
The downgrade, dinging shares of Apple, and why one of our traders is making himself at home in shares of Airbnb.
我是迈克·桑托利，今天替梅丽莎·李主持节目，从纳斯达克的B演播室为你直播。今晚在座的嘉宾有蒂姆·西摩、考特尼·加西亚、盖伊·亚当，还有富国证券前宏观策略主管迈克·舒马赫。
I'm Mike Santoli in for Melissa Lee today coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Guy Adame, and Mike Schumacher, a former head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo Securities.
欢迎各位。
Welcome to you all.
我们先从那个突破性的交易说起，这可是个大新闻，刚刚在CNBC上，我们的贝基·奎克进行了一次前所未有的圆桌采访。
And we begin with that groundbreaking deal, the huge news, unprecedented roundtable interview that just happened here on CNBC with our Becky Quick.
英伟达的黄仁勋、高盛的戴维·所罗门、贝莱德的拉里·芬克、黑石的约翰·格雷，还有布鲁克菲尔德、阿波罗和KKR的领导人，一起宣布了一个高达5000亿美元的AI基础设施发展融资计划。
Nvidia's Jensen Huang, Goldman's David Solomon, BlackRock's Larry Fink, John Gray, Blackstone, along with leaders of Brookfield, Apollo, and KKR, all coming together to unveil a massive $500,000,000,000 funding package for infrastructure development for AI.
现在让我们连线刚刚结束采访的贝基·奎克。
Let's now bring in our own Becky Quick, who just wrap up.
你得给她鼓掌欢迎。
You gotta clap her in.
你得给她鼓掌欢迎。
You gotta clap her in.
这真是难得
This is this a rare
又令人惊叹的访问。
and amazing visit.
谢谢。
Thank you.
嗯，我，我，我
Well, I'm I'm I'm
非常感激。
very grateful.
难得的一天。
Rare day.
令人惊叹的一天。
Amazing day.
显然，你知道，这里聚集了一群非常独特的人，来讨论一件看起来像是AI热潮中资本筹集和融资的一大步的事情。
Obviously, you know, pretty unique set of folks here to talk about something that that seems like a big step in this whole capital raising financing of the AI boom.
从大家的讨论中，你印象最深的是什么？
What jumped out to you from from the collective conversation?
你知道，从我们一开始看新闻、试图理解这件事的时候，就觉得，好吧。
You you know, I I from the moment we started looking at the news and trying to feel through it, it's like, okay.
为什么是这些公司？
Why these companies?
为什么是它们在这么做？
Why are these the ones that are doing this?
这些钱是已经承诺用于AI支出的，还是即将进来的新资金？
And is this money that's already been committed to AI spend, or is this new money that's going to be coming in?
我觉得两者都有。
And I think it's a little bit of both.
这些公司中有些已经在为这些事情投入大量资金了。
These are some of the companies that are already putting a ton of money into the financing for these things.
但我认为通过与英伟达合作，它们也能从这笔交易中得到一些好处。
But I think by partnering with Nvidia, they get something out of the deal too.
英伟达显然为它的合作伙伴获得了资金，这些资金将被投入使用。
Nvidia obviously gets funding for its partners that it's that's gonna be brought to bear.
但每家公司都能抢先看到英伟达认为有价值的合作伙伴和交易，并拥有优先机会。
But each of these companies gets kind of a first look and first opportunity at the partners that Nvidia sees as worthy and the deals that are seen as worthy.
我一开始不太明白，直到对话深入，黄仁勋指出，即使有些公司失败或倒闭，这些交易也会经受住考验。
I I I didn't quite understand it till the evolution of the conversation when when Jensen pointed out, hey, even if there are companies that fail and those that fall apart, these are deals that are going to stand the test.
如果他们不接手，别人也会接手。
If if they're not taking it, somebody else will.
这种算力是必需的，而且这些东西可以即插即用，让其他公司接手。
That this compute power is necessary, and this is stuff that can be kind of plug and play for another name to come in.
这些公司擅长的是把原本有形的东西变成可拥有、可交易的证券。
What these companies know how to do is to make securities or something ownable and tradable out of something that's otherwise tangible.
我觉得这就是为什么很多人讨论的是，这些资产、这些芯片、这个平台的使用寿命比我们想象的要长得多。
I think that was why a lot guys, the conversation was about, well, know, the life of these assets, of these chips, of this platform, is a lot longer than we thought
确实如此。
it was.
它会
It's gonna
保持其价值。
hold its value.
我们可以在这些资产上叠加一层债务，这可能会是一个有吸引力的投资。
We're gonna be able to kind of put a layer of debt on top of these things for a while, and it could be an attractive investment.
所以，这是我觉得独特的一点。
So, that was one of the things that I thought unique.
但你说得对，这并不一定会增加建设规模。我们已经知道今年会是7500亿，明年超过一万亿。
But to your point, it's not necessarily raising the amount of the build, We already knew it's going to be 750,000,000,000 this year, trillion plus next year.
对。
Yeah.
但也许融资方式会更顺畅。
But maybe it's going to be a smoother way of accessing financing for it.
没错。
Right.
而且我觉得特别是对英伟达来说，这是个大好消息，因为他们的客户将能获得这些资金，这有助于他们的项目推进。
And I think in particular, it's great news for Nvidia because their customers are going to get access to this, which helps them with their pipeline.
你知道，这是一种很聪明的整合方式，能把资金精准地投向他们认为重要的那些玩家。
You know, it's a it's a clever way of pulling this together and getting that money targeted towards the players that that they see as being the important players.
而且你看，
And look.
不得不佩服黄仁勋。
You gotta hand it to Jensen Huang.
他一直很擅长预见未来，眼光放得很长远。
He's been really good at seeing around corners for a very long time.
他对哪些玩家重要有很清楚的认识。
He has a good idea of who some of these players are.
不过，确实需要大量资金。
But, yeah, there's a lot of money that's needed.
约翰·格雷说得非常好，他说目前主要是私人资金在推动这件事，因为公共资金可能还没准备好，但之后某个时候公共资金也会跟上。
John Gray made an excellent point where he said, right now, it's the private money that is going to go to work for this because maybe the public money isn't quite ready to be there, but it it will then pick up at some point down the road.
对。
Yeah.
蒂姆，这其实是一种项目融资，这种方式已经存在很久了。
This is, project financing in a way, Tim, which has existed for a long time.
当你听到阿波罗、黑石和KKR这些名字时，你完全能感受到——我的问题是，这背后似乎有一种全新的紧迫感。
And when you when you hear Apollo and Blackstone and KKR, mean, you you totally and I guess my question is, it seems like there's almost a fresh urgency underneath this.
是的。
Yeah.
在我看来，其中一部分是受到中国的启发。
And and it seems to me some of that is inspired by China.
这真的有点像一场竞赛。
Some of this really feels like a race.
确实有这种感觉。
That's what it felt like.
这表明他们的资本市场依然活跃且健康。
Showed that their capital markets are alive and well.
对。
Yeah.
而且我觉得这真的是一个国家的优先事项。
And it feels to me like we really and this is a national priority.
这是不是也是你的一些感受？
Is is that some of the sense you
我也这么觉得。
I I think so too.
大卫·所罗门和拉里·芬克都提到了这种美国例外主义。
Both David Solomon and Larry Fink brought up this American exceptionalism.
阿波罗也提到了这一点。
The the also, Apollo brought that up too.
就是这种想法，认为这对这些公司很重要。
Just this idea that this is important for these companies.
这对美国很重要，关系到我们如何展示自己，以及能否在这场竞赛中领先。
It's important for America for how we can kind of promote ourselves and be the ones who are leading the race for all
这一切。
of this.
贝基和梅，那真是太精彩了。
Becky and May, that was incredible.
我是说，那真是必看的电视节目。
I mean, that was must watch TV.
但就像在场的很多人一样，值得注意的是，有哪些人没有被包括在内？
But as many of the people that were here, is it notable the people that weren't included in this?
我应该从中读出什么吗？
Should I read into that?
我，你看。
I I look.
我问了詹森，为什么是这些人，你有没有去找过那些拒绝的人？
I asked Jensen why this why these people, and did you go to anybody who said no?
他说的第一句话就是没有。
The first thing he said was no.
没有人拒绝。
Nobody said no.
但我感觉这未必是最终结果，也许以后还会有更多进展，他们会引入其他合作伙伴来参与部分融资，因为资金需求实在太大了。
But I get the feeling that this is not necessarily an end all be all, that maybe you'll hear more developments down the road, other partners that they would bring in to do some of this financing because the need for money is just so great.
迈克，这在整个大局中是怎么一回事？
Mike, how does this fit into the whole thing?
我觉得，在很多方面，AI投资周期的发展已经超出了我们之前的预期。
I mean, it feels in many ways like everything about the AI investment cycle is outgrowing what we had before.
对吧？
Right?
它已经超出了我们提供电力的能力，你知道，如何快速建设，而且显然也对资本市场提出了巨大的需求。
It's outgrowing our ability to provide power, you know, how to build fast, and then obviously making huge demands on the capital markets markets as well.
这真的很了不起。
It's really amazing.
想想年初时人们对今年资本支出的预期，大约是4800亿美元。
When you think about the capex total people expected when the year began for this calendar year, it was something like 480,000,000,000.
就这些吗？
It's Is that it?
是的。
Yeah.
7500亿，再加上这5000亿中的一部分。
$7.50, 800 plus some chunk of this 500.
对。
Yeah.
这对债券市场有什么影响？
What's the impact on the bond market?
是负面的。
It's negative.
我们可以谈谈项目融资。
We could talk about project finance.
我们可以谈谈有多少是私人的，多少是公共的，等等。
We could talk about how much is private, public, what have you.
但典型的债券投资者会说，这是大量的额外供应。
But typical bond investor is going to say that's a lot of additional supply.
不管那是500中的多少比例。
Whatever that fraction is of 500.
在长期
At the long
端。
end.
长期久期的资产。
Long duration stuff.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得没错。
I think that's right.
这就是为什么今天十年期国债被重挫，在我看来，蒂姆。
That's why the ten year got whacked today in my opinion, Tim.
我觉得其中一部分原因是，我们说的可能是大量私人资本，对吧。
And part of it, it seems to me because we're talking about maybe a lot of private capital Mhmm.
而不是公共资本。
As opposed to public capital.
这也是长期波动的一部分，在透明度方面，以及在时间线的不确定性方面，过去私人资本愿意忽视一些公共资本不会忽视的事情。
That's part of what also long duration choppiness in terms of transparency, choppiness really in terms of timeline unknowns, and this is where private capital in the past has has been willing to overlook things that public capital will not.
而且，我觉得这正好发生在私人资本市场从未如此受关注的时候，无论是我们的观众还是CNBC，也就是散户和专业投资者都在关注。
And and and again, to me, this is coming at a time when the private capital markets have never been more foremost in terms of what both our audience and CNBC, I mean, retail and professional investors are looking at.
你知道，大卫·所罗门曾提到，货币市场基金里有九万亿美元，好像这就是一种交换，你知道吗？
You know, David Solomon at one point throughout, there's $9,000,000,000,000 in money market funds as if this is like a swap, you know?
哦，我本来打算就坐在那儿，靠我的现金赚点利息，但现在我实际上，你知道……但我知道他的意思。
Oh, I was gonna just sit there and clip coupons on my cash, but now I'm gonna actually, you know But I I know what he's saying.
换句话说，我们有广阔而深厚的资本市场。
In other words, we have vast and deep capital markets.
顺便说一句，这些货币市场基金越来越庞大，人们都在好奇这些现金什么时候、会在哪里被部署。
And by the way, those money markets keep getting deeper and deeper, and people are wondering when and where that cash is going to be deployed.
很多是企业的，很多就是人们有缓冲垫。
A lot of it's corporate, a lot of it is just, you know, people have the cushion.
你知道，Courtney，你怎么看这个？如果我们得警惕市场什么时候会有点紧张，或者过于激进，而实际上市场会说，对不起，我们不会这么做。
You know, Courtney, how are you thinking about this in terms of if we're going to be on alert for, you know, when things get a little bit stretched, or over ambitious, and when in fact the market says, I'm sorry, we're not going to do that.
我们经历了几个月，市场说，我们不喜欢这些大公司，世界上最好的公司把所有的自由现金流都花在这上面，然后我们就克服了。
We went through a couple of months where the market said, we don't like these huge companies, the best companies in the world spending all their free cash flow on this stuff, and then we got over it.
对，但后来我们有了财报季，对吧？
Yeah, but then we had earnings season, right?
我觉得大多数这些公司，嗯，那些财报后表现好的，都能证明为什么他们在资本支出上花这么多。
I think most of these companies, well, the ones that did well post earnings, were able to justify why they were spending so much on CapEx.
这就是你看到的这种分化，如果你能展示某种盈利路径，以及什么时候能真正获得投资回报，投资者就会奖励你。
And that is what you're seeing is this bifurcation here, where if you can show some sort of path to profitability and when you're gonna have real ROI on that money, investors are rewarding that.
我看到今天的讨论，真的很重要，资本支出会继续。
And I see I think seeing this discussion today, it's really important that that that the CapEx is gonna continue.
只要有需求支撑，这正是我们看到的，长期来看这是合理的。
And as long as there is demand to back it, and that's exactly what we're seeing, it can be justified in the longer run.
投资者还是会质疑，但我认为需求仍然存在，这就是我们看到的。
Investors are still gonna question it, but I think that demand is still there, and that's what we're seeing.
我想把这个问题抛给大家，因为我自己也没有答案。
Let me just throw this out to the table because this is a question that I don't have an answer to.
我觉得这个问题，即使是小组讨论或者我们和这些人的全体会议，也没有真正回答清楚。
I don't feel like the question was answered necessarily by the panel even, or the town hall that we have with all of these guys.
我我我看这个问题，时不时地，市场会出现一些震动。
I I I look at it, and every once in a while, there are these quakes in the market.
对吧？
Right?
你可以回顾去年一月，也就是25年一月的DeepSeek事件，当时大家都觉得，天哪。
You can go back to deep sea in January of last year in '25 where it's like, oh my gosh.
我们会被中国人打败。
We're gonna get beat by the Chinese.
他们能做得更便宜、更快。
They're gonna be able to do it cheaper and faster.
你可以有利奥波德·奥尔申布伦纳，还有那种情境意识，却不知道幕后真正发生了什么。
You can have Leopold Allschenbrenner and, you know, situational awareness and not know what was really happening beneath the scenes.
这些事件到底有多重要？首先，那些小波动有多关键？
How much of those things, like, first of all, how important are any of those blips?
其次，你觉得还会有其他类似的时刻吗？
Second of all, do you anticipate that there are gonna be other moments like that?
而且，你觉得市场在那种时刻会挺过去，还是会有那么一次，来了之后很难克服？
And and do you think the market kinda pushes through on a moment like that, or do you think that there's a that one that comes and and that it's much harder to overcome?
嗯，我的想法是，这发生在一个特殊的时点，而且，你知道，迈克也可以谈谈这个，我们离十年期国债收益率十九年高点只差15到25个基点。
Well, my my thought is this is coming at a time, and, you know, Mike can talk about this too, but we're within 15 basis point 25 basis points of nineteen year highs on the tenure.
对。
Yeah.
这一切都发生在全球信用最好的公司的CDS自一月份以来翻倍的时期。
This is all coming at a time when CDS for the most credit worthy companies in the world have doubled since January.
所以，我认为债务市场肯定会对信用市场有所表态。
So I I I think the debt markets are gonna have something to say about this credit markets for sure.
而且最终，这种情况就是，你知道，未知的投资回报被无限期地融资下去。
And and ultimately, a case where, you know, unknown ROIs are being financed into perpetuity.
我觉得市场已经这样好几个月了，最近几周感觉还行，但如果利率超过5%，我就不确定了。
I think the market's been doing that for months and, you know, the last couple weeks, it felt like they were okay, but I'm not sure if if rates go above 5%, I'm not sure.
你知道，迈克，黑石的约翰·格雷提到了Coraweave。
You know, Mike, John Gray from Blackstone said invoked Coraweave.
对吧？
Right?
他说，有一段时间他们几乎是勉强维持生计。
And said, there was a time when they were kind of hand to mouth.
他们不一定能自己融资。
They weren't able to necessarily finance themselves.
现在他们是一家上市公司，融资成本已经下降了。
Now they're a public company, and their cost of funding has come down.
这似乎是英伟达一些客户的思维模式，这些客户自己不一定能获得有吸引力的融资。
That seems to be the mental model for, like, some of these customers of Nvidia who on the on their own are not gonna necessarily have attractive financing.
这可以通过私人信贷的方式来实现。
This can do it in a private credit way.
对吧？
Right?
这就是私人信贷所发生的情况。
This is what happened with private credit.
你不需要在当下进行市场推广。
You don't have to market in in the moment.
所以，你知道，资金是有的，但它在幕后进行。
And so, you know, the money's there, but, you know, it's going on behind
幕后。
the scenes.
对，这是个很好的观点，对吧？
Yeah, it's a great point, right?
我的意思是，私人信贷的一大好处就是没有市场标记。
I mean, the big benefit of private is there's no mark.
所以，是的，它就停在面值，面值，面值。
So, yeah, it sits there at par, par, par.
一些坏消息出来，突然就变成72了。
Some bad news comes out, and all of a sudden it's 72.
它不会从面值跌到95。
It doesn't go from par to 95.
不是那样运作的。
It doesn't work that way.
所以，很难去深入查看内部情况。
So, it's tough to look under the hood.
所以，我觉得这对于为下一代珊瑚杂草提供资金来说，是一件很好的事情。
I So, think it's a great thing as far as facilitating funding for a lot of the the next generation of coral weeds.
我同意这一点。
I agree with that.
但当你考虑到更多资金在外面却没有被标记的广泛影响时，如果你是监管者，或者你对自己的个人账户某些方面感到不安，你会怎么看？
But when you think about the broader implications of a lot more funding out there that's simply not marked, if you're a regulator or if you're someone who's a little bit uneasy about certain aspects of your personal account, how do you look at that?
你可能会有点紧张。
You probably get a little bit nervous.
我觉得我们也得谈谈利益冲突的问题。
I think we have to talk about conflict too.
我的意思是，如果你觉得存在这么多交叉持股或交叉利益，无论是出资方可能持有股权，还是至少在股权方面有触发条件，你知道，这种循环融资，最终，英伟达不仅是最先进的半导体公司，也是一家AI基础设施公司。
I mean, if if you think there's so much cross ownership or cross interest both in the people that are funding that also have may have an equity stake, may have at least triggers on the equity side to you know, look, the the circular financing, ultimately, Nvidia is is an AI infrastructure company in addition to being the most sophisticated semiconductor company in the world.
但他们与客户之间的这种相互依赖，就是我们一直在讨论的。
But they you know, the the inter alliance on their customers back to them, I mean, that's what we've been talking about.
所以我还是觉得，私募市场似乎不太需要那种公开披露。
So I I just think, again, private markets seem to have less need to make those in your face disclosures.
这并不意味着它们不好。
Doesn't mean they're bad.
也不意味着它们是邪恶的。
Doesn't mean it's evil.
也不意味着它们在耍花招。
Doesn't mean it's sneaky.
对。
Right.
只是说，但这可能意味着它有耐心。
It just means that But could mean it's patient.
嗯，它确实非常有耐心。
Well, it it's it's very patient.
而且
And
当事情顺利时，有耐心是好事。
and when things are working, patience is great.
当事情不顺利时，你知道吗？
When things are not working, you know?
但所有这些公司都有在市场不景气时保持耐心，同时遭受打击的经历。
But all of those companies have some experience with being patient when the market is not and getting kinda pummeled in the meantime.
而且通过这种方式赚了很多钱
And making a lot of money by
他们靠坚持赚了很多钱，对吧？
And they're making a lot of money by sticking it Right?
是的。
Yeah.
毫无疑问。
No doubt about it.
好的，我们接下来会和吉恩·芒斯特继续聊这些。
Well, we're gonna have some more on all this with Gene Munster.
他现在和我们在一起，来自深水资产管理公司。
He's with us at Deepwater Asset Management joining us now.
吉恩，你一直在听这些。
Gene, you've been hearing it all.
希望你有整整一个小时来消化一下。
Hopefully, you had the full hour to to kinda digest some of it.
那么，这对投资有什么影响呢？
So where does this bring you in terms of investment implications?
这是不是一种催化剂？
Is this an accelerant?
还是说这只是还行？
Is this just sort of okay.
那么，现在我们是不是已经覆盖了原本以为要从现在开始投入的那部分成本？
Well, now we have part of the nut covered in terms of what we thought we were gonna have to spend from here?
我觉得从大局来看，这确实是一种催化剂。
I mean, the big picture is that it is an accelerant.
这说明了我们还处在非常早期的阶段，而且有一个动态让我有点担忧，就是这次发展的重要性，这反而让我觉得我们还在基础设施建设的第二或第三局，那个5000亿美元的强力背书就说明了这一点。
It is an indication of how early we are, and there's a dynamic that is a little bit concerning in terms of the significance of this development, which I think just reinforces that we are in the second or third inning of the infrastructure build out, that just overwhelming endorsement that this $500,000,000,000 suggests to that piece.
然后市场对这些消息的反应。
And then the market reaction to a lot of these.
英伟达股价下跌了几个百分点。
Nvidia trading off a couple percent.
我们持有不少这类小型AI基础设施公司。
We own a lot of these smaller AI infrastructure companies.
Coherent今天跌了15%。
Coherent down 15% today.
你看到的基本上就是市场在说，要么我不信，要么就算真发生了，也只是在继续堆大数定律。
What you have seen is basically the market saying either I don't believe it, or if it does happen, it just keeps building this law of large numbers.
所以我觉得，这两种想法是最先冒出来的。
So I mean, those are the two kind of orbits that kind of jump to top of mind.
但如果你只看这件事的本质，结合你刚才的对话，再加上我的看法，那就是我们真的还太早了。
But if you just look at the substance of this and taking the conversation that you've just had and kind of putting my perspective on it, is that we're just still so early.
这不是英伟达想在未来多卖点货。
This is not about Nvidia trying to juice their sales in the future.
这是英伟达听到客户说，他们就是想要更多，但没钱买那些芯片。
This is about Nvidia hearing from their customers that they just simply want more and don't have access to capital to buy those chips.
我觉得这一切都归结为一个简单的主题：尽管我们这些科技投资者对AI的现状很痴迷，但我们并没有完全意识到我们有多早，以及这种支出能持续多久的重要性。
And I think it all plays into this simple theme is even though we obsess, we being tech investors about where AI is at, I don't think we fully appreciate how early we are and the significance of how long that this kind of spending can go on.
有意思的是，有时候你说我们早，或者Alphabet的桑达尔·皮查伊说我们早，市场就会说太好了。
It's interesting because there have been times when when you say we're early or when Sundar Pichai says we're early from Alphabet and the market says great.
我们还有很大的发展空间。
We have a lot of runway.
但有时候市场会说，哦不。
But the the other there there are other times when the market says, oh, no.
这意味着账单会继续增加。
That means the bill is gonna keep growing.
然后那些花钱的人就得花更多的钱。
And then the spenders are gonna have to spend more heavily.
而且我真的很关心最终的结果，不管它在哪里，不管它有多远，吉恩。
And I really am interested in the destination here, wherever it is, however far it is in the future, Gene.
我的意思是，詹森说，嘿，这就是新的电力。
And by that, I mean, Jensen talks about, hey, this is the new electricity.
我为什么对此感到兴奋？
Why am I excited about that?
电力是一种商品。
Electricity is a commodity thing.
这是基础负荷的东西。
It's a baseload thing.
这有点像受监管的市场。
It's kind of a regulated market.
你的电和别人的电是一样的。
Your electricity is the same as anybody else's.
长期来看，做这个的房东和供应商，有什么令人兴奋的？
Why is it exciting long term to be the landlord, the provider of that?
嗯，我觉得电力的类比有点像，它是未来的石油。
Well, I think the electricity analogy is similar to the kind of it's the petroleum of the future.
它是未来的石油。
It's the it's the oil of the future.
我一直不太同意这种看法。
And I have long kind of disagreed with that view.
我认为，说到智能，确实有一部分像电力。
I think what we see when it comes to intelligence is, yes, some of it is like electricity.
有些智能确实被商品化了。
Some of this intelligence is commoditized.
但这里面有一个高端，就是知识的前10%，那些我认为极其有价值的AI模型。
But there is a top end of this, a 10% end of knowledge, these AI models that I think are extremely valuable.
而且有些定价，即使已经降下来了，我们看到杰文斯效应开始起作用，使用量呈指数级增长。
And some of those pricing, even though they've come down, we see the Jevons effect kick in and the usage goes up exponentially.
所以我的回应是，我不认为这是电力。
And so my response to that is I don't think it's electricity.
首先，不是所有的AI推理都是一样的。
Not all AI inference is created equal, number one.
其次，整个概念，随着价格下降，还会有更高的层级，我认为你会看到这些工具的使用量爆发式增长。
And number two, this whole concept, as price does go down and there'll still be higher tiers, I think you're just gonna see an explosion in in the use of these tools.
要记住的是，当我们，再说一遍，科技投资界看AI的用例时，仍然相对有限，很多还在测试阶段。
Keep in mind is that when we, again, the tech investing community looks at the use cases around AI, there's still relatively limited, a lot of testing.
但很难指出一些非常明确的，除了谷歌搜索、云增长，或者可能是Meta的广告业务。
But it's very hard to point to some very definitive beyond Google search or cloud growth or maybe Meta's advertising business.
这之所以如此重要，归根结底是因为，如果我们还处于这么早的阶段，或者如果这些是仅有的应用案例，我认为这恰恰说明了我们有多早期，以及我认为这些代币的价值将会出现分化。
And why that's so important is that ultimately is that if we are that early, I think it speaks to or if those are the only the cases, I think it speaks to how early we are and that what I think is going to be a spread in terms of value of these tokens.
Gene，当Becky和她的团队召集这样一群人时，这真是历史性的，太了不起了。
Gene, when Becky and her team convenes a group like that, which is historic in a word, that's Amazing.
Making a Tim称之为军备竞赛。
Making a Tim called it an arms race.
没错。
That's right.
中国有人关注这个。
There are people in China that watch that.
那么，你对这种全球性的你来我往有什么看法？
So what are your thoughts in terms of what it means for this sort of global back and forth?
我的意思是，别想得太复杂。
I mean, don't overthink it.
我明白，私募市场，私募债务市场确实带有负面标签。
I understand that the private markets, the private debt markets do have a negative stigma associated with it.
但大局是这样的。
But the big picture is this.
这些都是非常成熟的投资者。
These are very sophisticated investors.
我们就是和这类投资者合作的。
And we work with these type of investors.
我向你保证，他们这么做不是为了赶时髦，或者参与一个他们认为昙花一现的热潮。
And I promise you, they're not doing this to try to play along in a hype theme and something that they think is short lived.
他们是为了更大的目标。
They're doing it for something bigger.
贝基提到的那些关于民族主义、中美之间的局势、AI的应用，所有这些，
Some of the stuff that Becky talked about around kind of nationalism, what's going on between The US and China, the use of AI, I think all of this.
我依然坚持我的看法。
I still stand by.
我们还是会早一步。
We're going be early.
我来做个预测。
I'll put a prediction out there.
过去三周，市场对超大规模资本支出增长的预期已经从2027年的24%上调到了36%。
Over the last three weeks, the expectations for hyperscaler CapEx growth for has gone from 24% for calendar twenty seven to 36%.
我打赌会超过50%。
I bet it's going be above 50.
而对于2028年，目前的预期是15%。
And for calendar twenty eight, it's at 15% now.
应该超过25了。
It's probably above 25.
正如你刚才提到的那些原因，我们确实还处在早期阶段。
We're just still early for all the reasons you talked about, Kai.
好的。
All right.
那我们就看看市场是否买账吧，Gene，毕竟我们的观点是现在还处于早期。
Well, we'll see, Gene, if if in fact the market likes that message that we are still early.
我不知道如果我不再过度思考，我会做什么，但我很感激这种想法，
I don't know what I'm going do if I'm not overthinking it, but I appreciate that sentiment that
你确实会这样。
you do.
这就是你的风格。
That's what you do.
我们很快再聊。
We'll talk to you again soon.
吉恩。
Gene.
非常感谢你，吉恩·芒斯特。
Thank you very much, Gene Munster.
蒂姆？
Tim?
嗯，不幸的是，我们一开始就提到了那个参考……
Well, we unfortunately started the refer
我们节目一开始提到了Hall Knows的《Man Eater》。
the show with the reference to Man Eater by Hall Knows.
确实挺遗憾的，而且……
And I've it is unfortunate, and
所有在家看节目的观众，可能也包括Hall Knows本人，都很喜欢看这个节目。
and everybody at home is, and that includes probably Hall Knows who love watching this show.
对。
Yeah.
但我觉得，嗯，我也担心资本的问题。
But I I think it's Well I'm I'm worried about capital either.
我是说，真的，我担心低成本模型和高成本模型的对比。
That that's I mean, really, I I am worried about low cost models versus high cost models.
我还担心扎克伯格的宣言，他说要资助小镇，给老师发支票，这想法很好，但里面也有很多政治因素。
I'm worried about a Zuckerberg manifesto where he's talking about funding small towns and handing out checks to school teachers, which is a great concept, and it's also there's a lot of politics in that.
所以，我们真的还早着呢。
So I I we're totally early.
我们绝对还处于早期阶段。
We're absolutely early.
这很令人兴奋。
This is exciting.
真正的问题是，谁在投资正确的渠道。
The question really is who is investing in in the right channel.
我会跟着阿波罗、黑石、贝莱德和布鲁克菲尔德走。
I would follow Apollo and Blackstone and BlackRock and and Brookfield.
我会跟着这些人走到天涯海角，因为他们足够聪明，会自己做尽职调查，但关键还是资本。
I would follow these guys to the end of the earth in terms of being smart enough to do their own diligence, but it's all about capital.
这里需要多少资本，又有多少被浪费了？
How much capital is necessary here and how much is being wasted?
因为我们知道有资本在被浪费。
Because we know there's capital being wasted.
对。
Yeah.
我是说，贝基，这跟几年前我们想的完全反过来了，那时候大家都在想，微软能拿它所有的成功做什么呢？
I mean, Becky, it's it's a whole flip of the world from what we were thinking about, let's say, a few years ago when it was all about, look, what what what could Microsoft
它还能怎么利用这些成功呢？
possibly do with all of its success?
而且不用非得是那个要掏钱的人，对吧。
And not having to be the one who was putting out that Yeah.
资本支出。
CapEx spending.
现在变成了资本支出的问题，你们能不能撑过这一关？
Now it's about CapEx spending, and are you going to be the ones that survive through this?
而且我要指出，大卫·所罗门和黄仁勋都很快说了，嘿。
And I will point out, both David Solomon and Jensen Huang were very quick to say, hey.
肯定会有一些输家。
There are going to be some losers.
大卫·所罗门说会有大公司在这上面栽跟头。
David Solomon said there are going to be big companies that lose out on this.
最终会有其他大公司胜出。
There will be other big companies that that that win at the end of the day.
但这并不是每个人都能赢，每个人都能带着奖牌回家。
But it is this is not a everybody wins and everybody gets to go home with a medal.
奖杯。
Trophy.
对。
Yeah.
在
On the
好的一面是，到最后，你确实建了更多的产能。
bright side, at the end of it, you do have that much more capacity built.
不管有人是否盈利，社会都能利用它。
Whether somebody's doing it profitably or not, society can can make use of it.
所以走着瞧吧。
So we'll see.
我们就到这里吧。
We'll end on that.
贝基，非常感谢。
Becky, thanks so much.
谢谢大家。
Thank you, guys.
谢谢你们留下来。
Thanks sticking around.
大家再见。
See everybody.
谢谢。
Thanks.
给她鼓掌。
Clap her out.
给她鼓掌。
Clap her out.
你。
You.
我以后会常来这里。
I'm gonna come here more often.
我会
I'll be
非常友好。
very nice.
起来，小苹果
Up, Apple under little
这有点太激进了。
that's that's aggressive.
东西。
Thing.
趁着休息时间，我们想带你看一看芝加哥的街头，敲响芝加哥期权交易所的收盘钟，结束常规交易日。
As we got to break, we wanna show you, beat the streets Chicago, ringing the closing bell at Cboe, out there ending the regular trading day for office.
展开剩余字幕（还有 411 条）
快速赚钱回来了。
Fast money back.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事情？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓创新的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中一条
One of
我最喜欢的建议是，想想你老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有很多不同的形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，要想成就大事，就得敢想大目标。
Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力玩家》节目。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新，在各大播客平台都可以收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
今天苹果被降级了，从持有降到跑输大盘。
Apple getting a downgrade today from hold to underperform.
这基本上就是建议卖出的意思。
That's basically a sell call.
杰富瑞的分析师表示，苹果明年可能不会推出全玻璃设计的iPhone，这让人怀疑他们还能不能继续向消费者收取高价，卖高端产品。
Jefferies analysts saying the company may no longer debut its all glass iPhone next year, and that is casting doubts on their ability to command more cash from its consumers for premium products.
今天苹果股价下跌。
Apple shares in the red today.
这是该股五天来首次下跌。
It is the stock's first down day in five.
跌幅达到了百分之一点五。
It was off a percent and a half.
Courtney，你看，它已经达到了溢价估值。
Courtney, look, it got to a premium valuation.
当其他科技股都在抛售时，它是个避风港，但我们该怎么看待这次降级呢？
It was a port in the storm when the rest of tech was was for sale, but how do we think about this call?
我觉得估值确实是这里最重要的问题，因为它的交易价格超过预期收益的33倍，当你支付这样的溢价时，我认为你需要一些理由来解释你为什么要付这么多钱。
I think valuation really is the biggest thing here because this is trading over 33 times forward earnings, and when you're paying that premium to evaluation, I think you want some justification as to what you're paying for.
我认为他们没有像其他竞争对手那样有AI故事和变现路径。
I think they don't have the kind of AI story and monetization path that some of the other competitors do.
但你也看到，他们还有内存芯片成本的问题，这对他们来说将是一个真正的麻烦，而这次降级很大程度上是因为他们原本要推出全玻璃iPhone，但问题是，这到底是不是真的？
But you're also looking here and they have the memory chip costs, and this is gonna be a real problem for them, where a lot of this call had to do with the fact that they were gonna have some all glass iPhone, which I think the question is, was that the case or not?
对。
Yeah.
但说到底，他们有没有足够好的产品来提价，客户真的愿意买单吗？
But the bottom line is, like, do they have a good enough product to raise prices, and are customers actually gonna be willing to pay that?
我觉得这才是关键。
I think that's the question here.
我觉得更大的问题还是估值。
I I think the bigger question is just the valuation.
现在你买的是什么？
What are you paying for at this point?
这就是我觉得你应该关注的。
That's what I think where you want
地方。
to be.
值得一提的是，公司从未说过要做全玻璃iPhone，这完全是渠道和供应商那边的消息。
Worth mentioning the company's never kind of said we intend to make an Apple This Glass is all a kind of channel check and checking with suppliers.
哥们，我觉得有时候分析师就是能感觉到股票会怎么走。
Guy, I feel like there's sometimes you have an analyst that just has a feel for how the stock might be leaning.
另外我还想说，杰富瑞已经好几年没有给这只股票买入评级了。
Now, I should also say Jefferies has not had a buy on the stock for a couple of years.
他们一直给的是持有或跑输大盘的评级。
They've been a hold or an underperformer.
关键是，这个人并不是一路上都看涨的，我只是好奇你怎么退出。
The point is, it's not somebody who is all bullish on the way up and just I wonder how you take out
一路到底。
all the way.
他们是在玩一点股市游戏，就像你说的。
They're playing a little stock market to your point.
我觉得这里的希望是，它能达到一个水平，然后他们可以转身转向，这说得通。
I think what the hope here is, it gets to a level where they can then turn and pivot, which makes sense.
考特尼提到了估值。
Courtney mentions valuation.
她还提到苹果在和长鑫存储谈，那是一家中国的存储芯片制造商，这和我们讨论的所有事情都有关。
She also mentions Apple's talking to CXMT, which is a Chinese memory chip maker, in terms of all the things we're talking about.
他们的成本在上升。
Their costs are going higher.
他们在想办法缓解这些担忧。
They're looking for a way to assuage some of those concerns.
你好奇美光在这其中会怎么样。
You wonder what happens with Micron in this.
刚才你走过的时候，我有幸不在台上，你说美光应该因为刚才那些消息涨得更高。
Now, I was fortunate enough to be off stage when you walked by, and you said Micron should be higher on all the news we just
听到了，是的。
heard Yeah.
4500万美元。
$45,000,000
但考虑到今天它跌了那么多，涨幅并没有你想象的那么大。
But not as much as you would think, given the sell off it had today.
所以这确实值得关注。
So there's just something to watch there for sure.
是的，而且我觉得市场也没有很快地去消化英伟达这个融资协议带来的任何新资金方面的消息。
Yeah, and I guess that also is the market is not moving fast to sort of price in anything fresh in terms of new money from this Nvidia financing type agreement.
蒂姆·库克，你知道，有趣的是，苹果在必要的时候确实能起到防御作用，而且，如果你把它和微软比一下，过去十天里它们完全走向了相反的方向。
Tim Apple, you know, it's funny because it does act as defense when necessary, and, you know, if you just look at it versus, like, Microsoft, they've just gone in opposite directions in, the last ten days.
那么，问题是，这算是一种市场判断吗？
Well, the the question is, is this kind of a market call?
我是说，我还没去看这个板块里的其他股票，但如果你对苹果变得不那么乐观了，顺便说一句，正如你所说，现在市场上任何表现不佳都等同于卖出，而这实际上并不是在敷衍了事。
I mean, I haven't looked to see the other names in this sector, but but if you're if you're getting, let's just say, less optimistic on on Apple by the way, any as you said, any any underperform is equivalent to a sell in in the markets these days, and that's actually not, mailing it in.
我是说，你知道，我希望看到更多这样的表现。
I mean, that's you know, the I'd like to see a lot more of that.
我几乎觉得这是一种市场判断，因为正如你所说，它是暴风雨中的灯塔，那种感觉。
I almost feel that this is a market call though because as you said, port of port of, you know, lighthouse in the storm, that kind of thing.
如果头条新闻是那个玻璃没有及时准备好，那理由就错了。
If the headline is the all glass is not is not ready in time, that's the wrong reason.
问题在于平均售价。
It's the ASPs.
但记住，苹果在过去六周里有三次显著的下跌，都是因为平均售价的公告。
But remember, Apple's had three down days of significance in the last six weeks, and they have been the ASP announcement.
所以，抱歉。
So the sorry.
那个，嗯，价格上涨是基于内存成本上涨。
The the well, the price increase based upon a memory cost increase.
那是一个不错的财报数字，但还不够好，而且还有一两次降级。
It was an earnings number that was fine, but wasn't good enough, and it's and it's a downgrade or two.
我不会因为这个消息就卖出。
I I I wouldn't be selling on this news.
对。
Yeah.
而且，当然，还要考虑到整个新升级模式，以及其他所有因素。
And going into, of course, the whole fresh upgrade model, all the rest of it.
我们看看那怎么融入进来。
We'll see how that fits in.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股价创下新高，这是格雷格从沃伦·巴菲特手中接任以来的最高水平。
Up next, shares of Berkshire Hathaway hitting their highest level since Greg able to go over from Warren Buffett.
这位新任CEO是如何利用公司的现金来推动增长的？
How's the new CEO putting the company's cash to work and driving gains?
您正在收看的是《快钱》节目，我们在时代广场的纳斯达克市场现场直播。
You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square.
广告之后，马上回来。
We are back right after this.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不害怕
I have no fear of
失败。
failure.
开创性的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是，想想你老板的老板需要什么。
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有很多很多不同的形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，要想成就大事，就得敢想。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博森主持CNBC的“变革者”和“权力玩家”节目。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新一期，无论你在哪里收听播客。
New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to fast money.
伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股价今天收盘上涨了1%，此前周六公布了财报。
Berkshire Hathaway shares closing out today up 1% after reporting earnings on Saturday.
新任CEO格雷格·阿贝尔开始动用公司的现金储备，净买入近200亿美元的美国股票。
Newlymated CEO Greg Abel starting to put the company's cash stockpile to work, buying nearly $20,000,000,000 in US equities on a net basis.
伯克希尔第二季度的营业利润升至近130亿美元，其中伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司在持仓中领涨。
Operating earnings for Berkshire rose to nearly $13,000,000,000 in the second quarter with Berkshire Hathaway Energy leading the gains in their holdings.
蒂姆，你知道，考虑到现金储备的规模和市场总值，这不算什么大动作，但也许这是一种新模式，因为市场上并没有出现什么混乱，阿贝尔也不是作为救火队员进来的。
Tim, you know, it's not a huge move in the scheme of things in terms of how big the cash pile is, how big the market cap is, but also, you know, maybe it's a new mode because it wasn't as if there was some dislocation in the market and Abel came in there as a No.
实际上，这也许有点——我不会称之为风格漂移，但我会说，感觉有点不一样。
In fact, this may be a slight I wouldn't call this style drift, but I would would call it, you know, feels a little different.
而且，当你买入伯克希尔时，这也就是金融板块XLF里的那个伯克希尔，你实际上是在买银行股和能源股。
And meanwhile, when you're buying Berkshire, and this is the same Berkshire that's in the financials XLF, I mean, you're buying banks and you're buying energy.
我认为这个市场在过去十二个月里显然已经回报了这两个板块，但根据我们现有的趋势，我认为这种回报还会继续。
And I think this is a market that obviously has rewarded those two sectors over the last twelve months, but I think will continue to based upon the trends we have.
公司还回购了45亿美元的股票。
Company also bought back 4,500,000,000 in stock.
你知道，那一直是投资者希望他们做得更多的一个大方面。
You know, that's been a big element there of some investors want them to do a lot more of that.
股票并不是特别便宜，但我想已经便宜到大家愿意买了。
It's not as if the stock's super cheap, but I guess cheap enough that people are happy to.
现金储备增加了，迈克尔，你面前应该有数据吧。
The cash hoard got, you probably have it in front of you, Michael.
我想它已经涨到了三千八百亿美元，三点六零。
Think it got up to $380,000,000,000 $3.60.
三点六零，相对于一家万亿美元的公司来说，显然很重要。
$3.60, which against a trillion dollar company is obviously significant.
你们在节目早些时候用的词是“耐心”，我觉得这是伯克希尔·哈撒韦在这之前……
The word you all used earlier in the show was patience, which is something I think that Berkshire Hathaway pre this
有点像枪炮与玫瑰的那首歌，其实不是。
sort of song by Guns N' Roses, by the Not really.
我是说，他们不得不发布那个。
I mean, was, know, they had to put that one out.
他们确实需要出一张专辑。
They needed to get one out.
那是《Use Your Illusion》里的歌吗？
What was that off of Use Your Illusion?
不是。
No.
是在《Appetite for Destruction》和《Use Your Illusion》之间出的。
It was in between Apposite for Destruction and Use Your Illusion.
抱歉，迈克尔。
I'm sorry, Michael.
没事，这个更重要。
No, this is much more important.
确实是的。
It is actually.
我刚才想说的是，现在他们开始把钱投出去了。
What I was going say was, so now they're putting money to work.
他们现在做这件事，时机对吗？
Are they doing it at the right time?
对。
Yeah.
他们现在做这件事，从历史来看，巴菲特指标已经到了我们可能从未见过的水平，他们是不是选错了时机？
Are they doing it historically with that Buffett indicator at levels we haven't seen maybe ever, they're doing it the wrong time?
今天市场给了他们回报。
The market is rewarding them today.
我想说，就连沃伦·巴菲特自己也说过，那个巴菲特指标只是某个时间点的观察。
I would say even Warren Buffett has said, Listen, that Buffett indicator thing was an observation in time.
他并不觉得这个指标能决定股市是否处于泡沫。
It's not as if he feels like it's determinative of whether stocks are in a bubble or not.
但是Courtney，如果你看看伯克希尔·哈撒韦，它有很多跟房地产相关的业务。
But Courtney, if you look at at Berkshire Hathaway, it's got a lot of housing related.
它还有能源业务。
It's got the energy.
保险业务有点下滑，主要是因为行业内的承保利润在减少。
Insurance is on a little bit of a down swing just because of underwriting profits in the industry.
像Progressive和Allstate这样的公司表现不太好，但整体来看，如果经济好的话，伯克希尔应该能从中获益不少。
You see things like Progressive and Allstate not doing that well, but it is this collection of, look, if the economy's good, Berkshire should capture a lot of that.
完全同意，而且我觉得有很多讨论说，你仍然想持有AI相关的股票，但市场正在出现更广泛的上涨。
Absolutely, and I think there's been a lot of talk about that of of you still want to own the AI trade, but there's this broadening that's happening.
我认为伯克希尔是一个很好的选择，而且你看它的股价，实际上一直跑输标普500。
I think Berkshire is a really good way of doing that, and if you look at the stock, it actually has been underperforming the S and 500.
今天它跑赢了标普，我觉得投资者喜欢看到的是，他们在股价表现不佳时买入，而且终于开始动用部分现金了。
Today, it outperformed the S and P, and I think what investors are liking to see is them buying on on that underperformance, and they're finally starting to deploy some of that cash.
所以我觉得投资者会继续看好他们。
So I think investors are gonna continue to reward them.
对。
Yeah.
他们手里那么多现金，市场其实一直没给他们应有的认可。
They never did get credit in the market really for all that cash.
我们看看吧。
We'll see
如果这确实代表了策略上的变化的话。
if it, you know, it does represent a change in in strategy.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，我们来预测一下美联储的下一步动作，以及最近国债收益率上升所传递的信号。
Coming up, gaming out the Fed's next move, what the latest uptick in treasury yields is signaling.
还有，我们的一位交易员认为，市场可能完全误解了美联储主席凯文·沃什。
And when one of our traders says markets could be getting Fed chairman Kevin Warsh all wrong.
稍后继续，快钱节目马上回来。
Fast money back after this.
欢迎回到快钱节目，本周开盘市场表现平淡。
Welcome back to fast money stocks with a muted session to kick off the week.
道琼斯指数仅下跌60点。
The Dow losing just 60 points.
标普指数基本持平，纳斯达克下跌了大约0.3%。
The S and P ending virtually unchanged and the Nasdaq off by about a third of a percent.
Trade Desk股价下跌3%，连续第四个交易日走低。
Trade desk dropping 3% for a fourth straight down day.
该股今年已经累计下跌了三分之二。
Shares have now lost two thirds of their value this year.
与此同时，Airbnb上涨近4%，延续了上周五17%的涨幅。
Airbnb meanwhile jumping almost 4% building on Friday 17% gain.
该公司上周轻松超出预期，并给出了强劲的业绩展望。
The company handily beating estimates and giving a strong forecast last week.
股价上涨了3.7%。
Stock up 3.7%.
SpaceX今天也上涨了超过4%。
The SpaceX also rising over 4% on the day.
今天的上涨使股价重新回到每股135美元的IPO发行价之上。
Today's move, bringing the stock back above its IPO price of $135 a share.
蒂姆，我们来看看爱彼迎吧，它有点回升了。
Tim, let's hit Airbnb here A little bit of a perk up.
感觉它就像是那些不是软件公司却变成了软件公司的典型代表，现在软件在卖，而那些交易其实一直都很惊人，尤其是它们本不该相关，但和微软的财报有点关联。
It just feels like the poster child for all that were not software companies that became software companies when software is being sold and all those trades that actually have been extraordinary, especially they shouldn't be related, but kind of correlated to the Microsoft earnings print.
现在，爱彼迎基于他们的财报，不仅连续两个季度实现了两位数的夜间增长，同比增长了25%，收入增长了近30%，而且他们还谈到了他们产品的AI功能，以及这些功能如何让人们能在爱彼迎上做以前做不到的事情。
Now, Airbnb was based upon their print, and their print were not only did they show double digit back to back night gains and kind of, you know, up, you know, 25 year over year, up almost 30% in revenues, but they talked about the AI features of their offering, and how that's allowing people to do things on Airbnb they never could have done.
顺便说一句，你还能去哪儿呢？
By the way, where else are you going to go?
确实感觉
It does feel
他们就是那种地方。
like they're one of those places.
显然，有句话说所有预订服务和任何封闭花园都会被AI渗透或竞争掉，但现在还没发生。
Obviously, was a line that said all the booking services and anything that was a walled garden is going to get penetrated or competed away from AI, but it's not happening just yet.
与此同时，我们来看看能源板块。
Meantime, let's get to some energy.
美国战略石油储备中的石油储量跌破3亿桶，创下自1983年以来的最低水平，因为伊朗战争持续给全球库存带来压力。
Oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling below 300,000,000 barrels at its lowest level since 1983 as the Iran war continues to put pressure on global inventories.
今天能源股和商品价格一起上涨。
Energy stocks pushing higher today along with the commodity price.
Courtney，一方面，这显然正在接近临界水平。
Courtney, on the one hand, it's obviously getting toward critical levels.
另一方面，这正是总统授权释放多达1.75亿桶石油时的情况。
On the other, this is what was authorized when the president said we're going to use up to 175,000,000 barrels get released.
对。
Yeah.
我认为关键问题是能源价格会走向何方，因为这是通胀故事的一部分。
And I think the big question is where the energy prices go because this is part of the inflation story.
这也是今年早些时候市场下跌的部分原因，因为如果油价高企，可能导致通胀上升，利率上升。
This was part of the reason the markets came down earlier this year because if oil is high, that can lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates.
我认为在这个水平上不一定令人担忧。
I don't think at these levels is necessarily concerning.
我觉得能源公司会表现不错。
I think that the energy companies can do well.
我觉得这不会对通胀造成太大问题，但这个问题还会继续存在。
I don't think this is gonna be too problematic for inflation here, but it's gonna continue to be a question.
而且现在，我们仍然远低于地缘政治担忧高峰时的水平。
And even now, we're still much below the levels we were at the peak of the geopolitical concerns.
我觉得我们还在等待解决方案，在真正解决之前，事情会保持在一定水平。
I think we're just still waiting for a resolution there, and I think you're gonna see things stay at a certain level until you actually get that.
几乎就要达成了，但就是没通过。
Keep almost having one and then it's not going through.
我们可能会维持现状，但最终，我觉得这不会成为未来的问题。
We'll probably stay here, but ultimately, I don't think it's gonna be an issue moving forward.
盖伊，从2月27日伊朗冲突开始以来，每一步，油价的反应都低于人们的预期，对吧？
Guy, at every step along the way since February 27, since the Iran conflict began, oil arguably has undershot what people thought might be a likely reaction, right?
无论是霍尔木兹海峡关闭的风险，还是库存被消耗，都没有缓冲余地了。
Whether it was the risk of the closing of the straight, inventories getting worked down, there's no more cushion.
我想，那可能是什么原因呢？
I mean, I guess one, why might that be?
市场是在自欺欺人，还是我们在想办法绕过供应紧张？
Is the market just kind of whistling past the graveyard, or are we finding ways around the tightness?
我来回答问题的第一部分。
I'll answer the first part of the question.
从历史上看，正如你所知，做多原油以应对地缘政治事件，长期来看总是亏钱的。
Historically, being long crude on geopolitical stuff, as you know, has always proven to be a loser in the long run.
我觉得大宗商品交易员已经明白了这一点，一旦有任何解决的迹象，你就会看到人们多么迅速地抛售大宗商品，但硬币的另一面才是关键。
I think commodity traders have figured that out, and any semblance of resolution, you see how quickly people sell the commodity, but the flip side of the coin is where you're going.
我认为人们低估了这里正在发生的事情，我同意这一点，不仅是在大宗商品方面，在股票方面也是如此，随便你怎么说，但XLE（能源板块ETF）尽管原油被大幅抛售，却表现得像个冠军。
I think people are underestimating what's going on here, and I agree with that, not only in terms of the commodity, but in terms of the stocks, and say what you want, but XLE is held in like a champ despite crude oil being sold off in a material way.
OIH（石油服务ETF）继续在200日均线附近强劲反弹，这些炼油厂继续创出历史新高。
OIH continues to bounce off the two hundred day moving average really well, and these refiners continue to make all time highs.
我觉得人们没有意识到这些能源股正在发生什么。
People are not realizing, I don't think, what's going on with these energy stocks.
我还是觉得他们在这里有偏见。
I still think they're biased here.
原油处于一个舒适的水平，而且炼油利润目前非常丰厚。
It's comfortable level for crude and then refining margins are fat as can be at this point.
我想这些公司应该能表现不错。
I guess the companies can do fine.
好了，现在来看市场和美联储，美联储主席凯文·沃什和市场之间可能存在重大脱节。
Well, now to the markets and the Fed, there may be a major disconnect between Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the market.
所以迈克尔，你在我们之前的通话中说过，你认为市场误解了新的美联储主席。
So Michael, you said earlier on our call, you think the street's misreading the new Fed chair.
而且，你知道，我觉得上次新闻发布会上有很多相互矛盾的解读。
And, you know, I guess there was a lot of kind of conflicting kind of takeaways from the last press conference.
你觉得市场忽略了什么？
What do you what do you think the market's missing?
我认为市场实际上是在把一些沃什并没有真正说过的话安在他头上。
I think the markets are actually applying things to Warsh that he hasn't really said.
他自己的观点其实没怎么说过。
He hasn't said a heck of a lot in terms of his own views.
说实话，几乎什么都没说。
Next to nothing, frankly.
他谈过委员会、工作组之类的。
He's talked about the committees, the task forces, etcetera.
但说到凯文·沃什自己对货币政策的看法，我老听他说，听着，我们的通胀目标就一个。
But as far as Kevin Warsh's own views about monetary policy, the thing that I keep hearing is he says, look, we've got one target on inflation.
就是2%，没别的。
It's 2%, period.
没有什么隐藏目标。
There's not a shadow target.
也没有假目标。
There's not a fake target.
我们不会搞什么披萨聚会，然后聊什么2.5%的目标。
We don't have a pizza and talk about two and a half percent.
我们不会那么做。
We don't do that.
所以在我看来，他是个相当鹰派的人。
So that to me sounds like a fairly hawkish guy.
只是他还没准备好马上行动。
Now he's just not ready to move quite yet.
而市场认为，上个月七月没有动作，所以就觉得这是鸽派。
And the market said, no move last month in July, therefore, somehow it's dovish.
我觉得这想法反了。
I think that's backward.
嗯，他确实说过2%是目标。
Well, he certainly has said 2% is the target.
绝对没错。
Absolutely.
然后他还说，是的，个人消费支出仍然是我们的目标，但也许它不是衡量通胀情况的最佳基准。
And then he also said, yeah, PC is still our target, but maybe it's not the best benchmark of what inflation is doing.
然后当他说，是的，我们必须调整政策以确保价格稳定，接着他在新闻发布会上质疑，也许政策利率并不是我们真正需要调整的东西，你知道的。所以你能理解为什么市场基本上可以解读出它想看到的任何东西。
Then when he said, yes, we have to move policy to make sure we get price stability, he then questions in the press conference, maybe the policy rate's not really the thing we have to go to for You know, so you understand why the market can basically see whatever it wants.
对。
Yeah.
是吧？
Right?
你是在透过一扇窄窗看东西。
You're looking through a narrow window.
外面有点昏暗。
It's kind of dim out there.
灰尘可能被误认为是黎明，反之亦然。
Dust can be mistaken for dawn, and vice versa.
没错。
That's right.
所以市场说，我们想看到一个不像我们想象的那么鹰派的人。
So the market said, we wanna see somebody who's not really as hawkish as we thought.
所以，我们就转向鸽派了。
Consequently, we're going dovish.
而且我觉得你说得很有道理，迈克。
And I think you make a great point, Mike.
当你考虑联邦基金利率和资产负债表之间的权衡时，沃什对资产负债表的看法是很明确的。
When you think about the trade off between Fed funds and balance sheet, Warsh's balance sheet views are pretty clear.
但他多次表示，我们并没有很好的办法来权衡这两种工具。
But he said several times, we don't really have a good way of trading off those two tools.
如果我们改变资产负债表的规模，那相当于联邦基金利率的多少个基点呢？
If we change our balance sheet size, how many basis points is that in Fed funds?
我们不知道。
We don't know.
对。
Yeah.
美联储也不知道。
The Fed doesn't know.
我不知道。
I don't know.
你也不知道。
You don't know.
就是不清楚。
It's just not clear.
而且我觉得，在采取大动作之前，他希望能有一个更明确、更有依据的判断。
And he'd like to have a much better idea with some rigor behind it what that might be, I think, before taking a big move.
所以我觉得市场对沃什的表态有些过度解读了。
So I think the market is left ahead of what Warsh has actually said.
所以如果你觉得现在市场应该预期更多加息的话，嗯。
So if you think there should be maybe more hikes in the market at this point Mhmm.
这对长端收益率意味着什么？
What does that mean for longer end?
因为上次我们预期更多加息时，长端收益率反而小幅下降了。
Because last time we put more hikes in, long end yields came down a little bit.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这次不会发生这种情况。
I think that's not going to happen this time.
你想想现在的市场价格，比如说到明年年中，大概有40多个基点的加息幅度，差不多这样。
You think about what the market price is now, let's say to the midpoint of next year, 40 odd basis points of rate hikes, give or take.
我觉得可能应该是75个基点左右，上下浮动。
I think it probably should be 75 plus or minus.
你可以用各种数学工具来看，比如说两年期可能加息25个基点。
You can look at various mathematical tools and say, oh, it might be 25 basis points in the two year.
但你说到十年期，可能15个基点，也可能20个基点。
But to your point about the ten year, maybe it's 15, maybe it's 20.
但让我担心的是后端，因为这是一系列事件的叠加。
But the thing that concerns me about the back end is it's a compounding series of events.
现在有大规模的资本支出激增。
You've got this massive capex surge.
这个话题我们之前详细讨论过。
We talked about that at length.
上一个小组讨论非常精彩。
The last panel was amazing.
这个趋势不会消失。
That's not going away.
今年不会，明年不会，后年也不会。
It's not going away this year, next year, the year after that.
这个因素依然存在。
That's out there.
国防开支，今天还没提到。
Defense spending, that has not come up today.
但这也是一个不可忽视的因素。
And yet, that's out there too.
同样，这个也不会消失。
That's not going away either.
政府赤字增长得相当厉害。
You've got government deficits growing pretty substantially.
我没看到多少节制。
I don't see a lot of restraint.
而且除此之外，我们还有通胀这个问题。
And on top of that, we've got this issue of inflation.
上个月美国的通胀率很低。
It was low last month in The US.
周三会不会也这么低呢？
Is it going to be low Wednesday?
希望如此。
I hope so.
那当然好，但我不会指望
That would be nice, but I wouldn't count
这个。
on it.
不过，数据倒是高得离谱。
Eyes through the roof though.
我是说，再说一次，从相对角度来看。
I mean, again, on a relative basis.
而且，而且，所以……
And and and So
这只是一次好的数据吗？
is it just one good print?
在我看来，这算不上趋势。
That's not a trend in my opinion.
我也觉得我们忽略了，你
I I also think we're forgetting you
知道，我们一直在谈美联储的双重使命。
know, we talk about the two sides of the Fed mandate.
那造成通胀的两方面原因呢？
How about the two sides of what causes inflation?
我是说，嗯。
I mean Mhmm.
全球经济已经很久没有这么强劲且同步增长了。
The global economy hasn't been this strong and unison a long time.
你刚看到欧洲的GDP数据出来了。
You just saw GDP numbers coming out of Europe.
我觉得下半年中国会更好。
I think second half China is better.
我的意思是，我们这个世界不仅能承受更高的利率，除了那些失控的信贷，我们还能把它拉回正轨。
I mean, we have a world that can not only take higher rates, except for credit that's gone wild, and we could bring it back to the a block.
但我觉得我们现在处于这样一个阶段，你必须明白，在流动性条件之上，经济、市场都处于历史高位，而美联储已经落后于形势了。
But but I think we're in a place here where you have to understand that that the economy on top of liquidity conditions, markets are all time highs, the Fed's behind the curve.
确实如此。
There's they are.
我同意这一点。
I agree with that.
十年期国债，长期利率，你问的那个，我觉得很快应该会超过5%。
10 treasury, long rates, you asked about that, should be north of 5% pretty quickly, in my opinion.
好的。
Alright.
那听起来大家都觉得我们应该按过热模式来应对。
Then we're it sounds like everyone thinks we're we should behave as if we're in overheat mode.
我可不能那样做。
I can't go for that.
没有双关的意思。
No puns
确实。
do.
你干得不错。
Nice job by you.
是的。
Yeah.
继续。
Move.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
还是那些。
Still with all of those.
好的。
Alright.
插播一条快讯。
A quick news alert.
新市长佐兰·马姆达尼的广场税已被史泰登岛的一名州法院法官暂时叫停。
New mayor Zoran Mamdani's Piazza tear tax has been temporarily halted by a state court judge in Staten Island.
真扫兴。
Bummer.
法官韦恩·奥齐批准了一项临时限制令，给了一群房主，他们声称市政厅公布可能受该税影响的房屋名单，造成了广泛的混乱。
Judge Wayne Ozzie granted a temporary restraining order to a group of homeowners who argued that city hall's publication of a list of homes that could be affected by the tax caused mass confusion.
市政府现在被禁止采取进一步行动，直到8月31日的听证会。
City is now blocked from taking further actions until the August 31, or in August 31 court date.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，Hims & Hers的股价在第二季度业绩公布后出现波动。
Coming up, shares of him's and hers on the move after second quarter results.
我们将深入分析这些数据，以及这家远程医疗巨头的最新状况，敬请关注《Fast Money》的后续报道。
We'll dig into the numbers and the state of play for the telehealth giant with Fast Money Returns.
欢迎回到《Fast Money》。
Welcome back to fast money.
我们有一条关于特朗普媒体的财报快讯。
We have an earnings alert on Trump media.
伊蒙·贾伯斯将带来详细报道。
Eamon Jabbers has the details.
嘿，迈克。
Hey there, Mike.
没错。
That's right.
今天是特朗普媒体科技集团上市以来的首次财报电话会议。
First ever earnings call for Trump media and technology group here today.
公司第二季度净亏损超过2.38亿美元，营收不到200万美元。记住，这家公司拥有总统的Truth Social社交媒体平台，公司高管在电话会议上回答了一些关于新API产品的问题。
The company reporting net loss of more than $238,000,000 in the second quarter on revenues of less than $2,000,000 Remember, this is the company that owns the President's Truth Social social media platform and officials from the company there on the call answering some questions they said they had received about this new API product.
我们在CNBC上已经聊过很多次了。
We have talked about it a lot on CNBC.
那是一种高速交易产品，客户可以购买高速访问Truth Social帖子的权限，包括总统的帖子。
That is the high speed trading product that allows customers to buy high speed access to true social posts including the President's post.
他们说现在已经有超过10个客户使用这个产品，而且他们以每月6万到10万美元的价格出售这项服务。
They said that they've got, more than 10 clients now, for that product and they are selling, that service at between 60,000 and $100,000 a month.
所以，迈克，他们为自己辩护，说很多关于这个产品的信息都是误解。
So they defended themselves from criticism, Mike, about this saying that a lot of the information out there is misinformation about it.
他们说这是一种成熟的商业做法，实际上他们就是在这么做。
They said this is an established business practice and said effectively this is what they are doing.
这和该领域其他公司的做法是一样的，而且他们会继续这么做。
It is the same as what other companies in the space are doing and they are going to continue to do it.
好的。
Alright.
对。
Yeah.
就算只有10个客户，按照他们目前的业绩来看，这也是一笔可观的收入。
Guess even with just 10 customers that is a material revenue number based on what they have been producing here.
特朗普媒体公司的市值仍然有25亿美元。
Still a $2,500,000,000 market cap at Trump media.
伊蒙，非常感谢你。
Eamon, thank you very much.
不客气。
You bet.
我们来看另一条财报快讯，关于Hims and Hers的。
Let's get to another earnings alert on Hims and Hers.
尽管公司营收超出预期，订阅用户数也增长了近290万，同比上升19%，但股价还是下跌了。
Shares falling despite the company beating on revenue as well as subscriber count growing by nearly 2,900,000, up 19% year over year.
CNBC的布兰登·吉尔穆思带来详细报道。
CNBC's Brandon Gilmuth has more.
布兰登？
Brandon?
嘿，是的，订阅用户数特别引人关注，尤其是在复合减肥药被下架后，出现了一些明显的流失。
Hey there, Yeah, the Beyond subs was particularly interesting, especially since there was some concerted melt off with the removal of compounded weight loss drugs.
这是订阅用户增长最大的季度之一，但部分原因是收购了国际远程医疗平台Eucalyptus后，其用户被合并进来了。
This was one of the biggest subscriber growth quarters, but that was in part because subscribers from Eucalyptus, an international telehealth platform, are rolled in after that acquisition.
现在拖累股价的可能是每股亏损0.37美元，这个亏损幅度相当大。我向公司首席财务官询问了这个问题。
Now it's likely weighing on the stock a significantly wide loss of $0.37 I asked the company's CFO about that.
他提到了几项一次性成本，包括完成Eucalyptus收购的费用、业务重组支出，以及为应对联邦贸易委员会新诉讼而预留的法律费用，该诉讼涉及公司对用户数据的使用和取消订阅的做法，公司计划积极为自己辩护。
He mentioned several one time costs, the close of that eucalyptus acquisition, restructuring business expenses, legal parameters set aside for a new FTC litigation, looking into the company's use of member data and cancellation practices, the company planning to defend itself vigorously.
然后还有一笔三千万美元的投资，用于了解多肽的生产。
And then you also have a $30,000,000 investment to learn about Pept manufacturing.
CEO安德鲁·达顿在电话会议上表示，他们正在等待关于多肽的临床指导，但会提供已经获批的多肽产品，这是公司下一个对冲的重磅产品，同时大幅上调了第三季度的营收指引，进而将整个财年的指引上调至超过30亿美元，迈克。
CEO Andrew Duttom on the call saying they are awaiting clinical guidance on peptides, but will offer access to already allowed peptides, the company's next hedged blockbuster, raising Q3 revenue guidance significantly and in turn fiscal year guidance to north of 3,000,000,000, Mike.
好的，布兰登。
All right, Brandon.
我的意思是，蒂姆，这只股票的贝塔值是3。
Mean, Tim, this is a stock with a beta of three.
它会根据人们对下一个大机会的预期以及他们如何规避监管审查而大幅波动。
It swings around all over the place based on what people think their next little bonanza is going to be and how they're sidestepping regulatory scrutiny.
然后当你看到一些具体数字时，情况并不那么乐观。
Then when you get some of the granularity around numbers, it's not all that great.
谈到多肽并想参与其中，这似乎是每个人都想进入的领域。
Talking about peptides and wanting to be there, this seems to be where everybody wants to be.
这确实是一个能让你感受到与GLP-1当时同样热潮的领域。
It's certainly a place that taps you into the same euphoria that was around GLP.
如果我想接触这类东西，我觉得有世界级的制药公司。
If I want exposure to this stuff, I think there are world class drug companies.
我更担心那些在GLP市场边缘的人。
I'm a little more worried about those folks that are in the fringe of the GLP market.
另一方面，Courtney，我的意思是，我们确实有一种监管方式，允许人们比以前做得更多，Hims和Hers，作为营销引擎，可能能从中获利。
On the other hand, Courtney, I mean, we do have, kind of a regulatory approach that's sort of allowing people to do a little more than they did before, Hims and Hers probably, as a marketing engine, probably can make some hay with that.
对，那可能是真的。
Yeah, that's probably true.
但我觉得对于这家公司来说，他们一直试图向人们保证，他们的复合GLP-1产品只是他们业务的一小部分。
But I think when it comes to this company too, mean, they keep trying to reassure people that their compounded GLP ones were just a fraction of their business.
但人们真的还在试图弄清楚他们的下一个收入来源会是什么，而不再是GLP-1的故事。
But people are really still trying to figure out what is gonna be their next revenue source, that that's not gonna be the GLP-one story anymore.
我认为除非他们能真正展示并证明这一点，否则我不知道他们是否还能像过去那样有同样的需求。
I think until they can really show that and prove that, I don't know if they're going have the same kind of demand that they have in the past.
去年这个季度他们盈利4000万美元，今年收入更高，却基本亏损了9000万美元。
$40,000,000 profit this quarter last year, they lost basically $90,000,000 this year on higher revenues.
市场在说，等一下，你的收入在增加。
The market says, wait a second, your revenue is going higher.
但你亏的钱更多，这显然不是什么好事。
You're losing more money, which is obviously never a good thing.
所以我们可以聊聊那些花哨的东西，比如和诺和诺德的关系。
So we could talk about the bells and whistles, the relationship with Novo Nordisk.
但归根结底，收入增加但利润减少，这可不是什么成功的策略。
The bottom line is more revenues, less profit is not a winning strategy.
对。
Yeah.
当然，我们也看到过去十二个月股价下跌了42%。
And of course we're showing the stock down 42% over the last twelve months.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，迪克体育用品在华尔街获得了看涨评级，今天股价上涨，我们来看看零售行业的下一步走势。
Coming up, Dick's Sporting Goods laces up the bullish call on Wall Street, giving shares a boost today, and the next leg for the retail trade.
接下来就是这个。
That's next.
两分钟后，更多《快钱》内容。
More Fast Money in two.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
今天迪克体育用品股价上涨2.5%，因为富国银行将该股评级上调至增持。
Shares of Dick's Sporting Goods rising 2.5% today after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock to an overweight.
分析师们对公司的长期发展轨迹越来越有信心，这得益于Foot Locker的复苏。
Analysts growing more confident on the company's long term trajectory driven by recovery in Foot Locker.
富国银行给出的240美元目标价意味着较今日收盘价有12%的上涨空间。
Wells' $240 price target implying 12% upside from today's close.
我还说过，这可能是押注耐克复苏的最佳方式。
I also said it's maybe the best way to play a Nike recovery.
我同意。
I agree.
首先，是的。
First of all, yes.
其次，尽管股价已经涨了不少，但考虑到他们的每股收益增长，估值还是很合理的，所以他们做得不错。
Second of all, valuation despite the run the stock has had is very reasonable given their EPS growth, so good on them.
我觉得分析师的平均目标价大约是2.55美元。
I think the average price target analyst is about $2.55.
我认为很容易就能达到那个价位。
I think it goes there very easily.
迈克，关于消费者，我觉得这又是一个见仁见智的问题，到底是纯粹的K型复苏，还是消费者还在坚持。
Mike, the consumer, I think it's another eye of the beholder situation in terms of whether it's purely K shaped, whether it's hanging in there.
显然，失业率仍然很低，但你对整体消费支出的走势以及目前所处的位置有什么看法？
Obviously, unemployment's still benign, but what's your take about the trajectory of consumer spending in general and where it sits?
相当不错，但非常集中。
Pretty good, but very concentrated.
我认为这就是风险所在。
I think that's the risk.
如果你做多资产，做多，随便挑一只过去几年表现火热的股票，或者房地产，那涨幅真是惊人。
If you're long assets, if you're long, take your pick of any of the hot stocks out there for the last few years or real estate, it's been a phenomenal run.
但我觉得风险在于，如果经济稍微有点下滑，衰退会来得很快。
But the risk, I think, is that if there's a little bit of a downturn, the economy goes pretty quickly.
所以现在集中度风险是个大问题。
So the concentration risk, I think, is a big one right now.
你知道吗，蒂姆，如果说有一个领域真的没被AI热潮裹挟，那就是传统零售。
You know, and Tim, if there's one area that really is outside the AI trade obsession, it seems to be traditional retail.
当然，零售也能用AI什么的。
Obviously, can utilize AI and all the rest of it.
但我在想，这是不是意味着它被忽视了，大家低估了那里的价值，还是说，反正它很安全，忽略它也没关系。
But I wonder if that means it's kind of being neglected and people are overlooking a little value there or is it just like, look, it's safe to ignore it.
我觉得零售里有些板块确实表现很好。
I think there have been parts of retail that have done really well.
过去一年半，我一直批评零售和可选消费里的运动休闲鞋类板块。
The part of retail and discretionary spend that I've been very critical for the last year and a half has been in the athleisure footwear part.
虽然那可能是正确的判断，但我其实觉得其中一些现在开始有点意思了。
And while that's probably been the right call, I actually think that some of them are starting to look somewhat interesting here.
这就是为什么对迪克的这个判断很有意思，因为耐克的前景动态，过去巅峰时占销售额的75%，现在稍微低了一点。
That's why this call on Dick's is interesting because the the dynamic on the outlook for Nike of which used to be at their peak was 75% sales and now it's a little bit less.
但在北美，如果耐克表现好，迪克也会好，或者可能正好相反，我觉得他们大概就是这个意思。
But in North America, if Nike outperforms, Dick's will, or maybe it's the opposite, I think is kind of what they've said.
但对很多零售来说，这其实是个利润率的故事。
But it's it's a margin story for a lot of retail.
所以回到价值投资和零售的结合。
So back to value meets meets retail.
我只是觉得你必须非常小心，看你处在哪个领域。
I I just think you have to be very careful about where what street you're on.
我的意思是，在零售里，你也不能投资一个糟糕的领域。
And I mean, you can't invest in a bad neighborhood in retail either.
我觉得它们往往高度相关。
I think that they tend to be very highly correlated.
而且尽管整体上，市场确实是一个选股者的好市场。
And and even though overall, the market has really been a great stock pickers market.
所以说了这么多，我其实觉得里面有一些价值机会，而且在经历了长时间的看空之后，在非必需消费和运动休闲领域，一些
So it's a long way of saying, I actually think there are some value opportunities in there, and I think in the discretionary spend in the athleisure space after being bearish for a long time, some of
图表也开始转好了。
those charts are also starting to turn.
Courtney，我想我们收到了关税退款，还有其他一些因素，可能会让这些公司更好地应对通胀环境。
Courtney, I guess we got, you know, tariff refunds coming through, you know, other elements that maybe are gonna allow some of these companies to deal with a more inflationary environment.
对。
Correct.
完全正确。
That's exactly right.
而且我觉得当你谈到消费者时，返校季的支出预计将达到约1500亿美元，这是创纪录的水平之一，我认为这将有利于像DICK'S这样的公司，还有像Target这样的公司。
And I think also when you talk about the consumer here, back to school spending is expected to be about $150,000,000,000 which is one of the records there, which I think will benefit something like a DICK'S as well, something like a Target.
但你问的是谁从中受益。
But you're asking who benefits here.
关于迪克体育用品，有个有意思的现象是，现在退休的人更活跃了，他们在迪克花得更多，也给孙辈们花钱。
One thing was interesting about DICK'S is you're seeing a more active retiree who's spending more at DICK'S and also spending on their grandkids.
而且这个群体其实不太受通胀或者利率变化的影响，因为他们要么有固定利率房贷，要么根本没有房贷。
And that's actually a a co a cohort which isn't as affected by inflation interest or specifically interest rates changing where they have fixed mortgages or no mortgages.
对。
Right.
所以他们表现得更好，我觉得这挺有意思的。
So they've been holding up better, and I think that's pretty interesting.
我记得疫情期间，迪克体育用品也有一波高尔夫相关的交易热潮。
I do remember during the pandemic, it was a golf trade from Dick's as well.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，我们会有你的最后一笔交易。
Up next, we'll have your final trade.
现在是最后一笔交易的时间了。
It is time for the final trade.
我们轮流来说吧。
Let's go around the horn.
迈克·舒马赫。
Mike Schumacher.
对。
Yep.
十年期国债收益率，
Ten year treasury yield,
到2030年达到5%。
5% by step 30.
好的。
Alright.
所以卖出十年期国债。
So sell the tens.
我有个CLF资源的交易，迈克尔。
I got CLF resource trade, Michael.
好的。
Alright.
Courtney。
Courtney.
伯克希尔·哈撒韦，我们今年在讨论扩大投资范围。
Berkshire Hathaway, we talk about broadening a play this year.
好的。
Alright.
还有Tim。
And Tim.
Mike，谢谢你
Mike, thanks for
加入我们。
joining us.
Mike Schumacher，感谢你的参与。
Mike Schumacher, thanks for joining us.
七十年代的长期票据，八十年代的短期票据，还有SLB。
Long haul notes of the seventies, very short haul notes of the eighties and SLB.
我是说，对那个SLB非常有信心。
I mean, totally very confident about that SLB.
富家女。
Rich girl.
她没问题。
She's got alright.
感谢收看。
Thanks for watching.
Fast Money参与者的所有观点仅代表他们个人意见，并不反映CNBC或其母公司、关联公司的观点，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体提前发布。
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them television, radio, Internet or another medium.
你不应将本播客中表达的任何观点视为对特定投资或特定策略的具体诱导，而应仅将其视为一种观点表达。
You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of an opinion.
这些观点基于Fast Money参与者认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司和子公司不保证其完整性或准确性，也不应依赖于此。
Such opinions are based upon information the fast money participants consider reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, it should not be relied upon as such.
要查看完整的《快钱》免责声明，请访问 cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer。
To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓创新的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中一条
One of
我最喜欢的建议是，想想你老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有很多很多不同的形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，要想成就大事，就得敢想大目标。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·伯斯滕主持CNBC的“变革者与权力人物”节目。
Julia Boursten hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.
每周二更新新一期，无论你在哪里收听播客都能找到。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。