本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
是什么让你觉得自己能做以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我根本不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
那些开拓创新的女性正在改变格局。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条
One of my
建议，就是想想你老板的老板需要什么。
favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力的形式可以多种多样。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
说到底就是相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，要成就大事，就得敢想大。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅，美国银行证券，为您带来CNBC改革者和影响力人物。
Julia BofA Securities hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新，欢迎在您收听播客的平台收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
直播来自纳斯达克市场现场，位于纽约时代广场中心。
Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square.
这里是《快钱》节目。
This is fast money.
今晚节目内容包括：
Here's what's on tap tonight.
AI板块今天火爆，CoreWeave、Nebius、Bloom Energy等公司表现强劲。
A red hot day for AI from CoreWeave to Nebius to Bloom Energy and more.
这个板块再次飙升。
The sector is riding high once again.
这次反弹是真的吗？
Is this rebound for real?
这个问题我们来辩论一下。
We'll debate that.
另外，Meta股价下跌，陪审团遴选开始，加州法院审理关于该公司社交媒体平台危害孩子心理健康的指控。
Plus, Meta shares slump as jury selection begins, and a California court case over claims the company's social media platforms are harming our kids' mental health.
Dan Nathan、Gayedami和Tim Seymour。
Dan Nathan, Gayedami and Tim Seymour.
我们从一个非常看涨的AI基础设施建设交易日说起。
We begin with a super bullish day for the AI build out trade.
看看CoreWeave、Nebius、超微和Lumentum的股价走势。
Check out the action shares of CoreWeave, Nebius, Super Micro and Lumentum.
这些股票都涨得很厉害。
All those stocks flying high.
英伟达今天也迎来买盘，收盘上涨约3%。
NVIDIA also catching a bid today, finishing the day up around 3%.
能源和存储相关的股票也纷纷跟进上涨。
And the energy and and memory names getting in on the action too.
Bloom Energy、GE Vernova、Micron、SanDisk，名单还在继续增加。
Bloom Energy, GE Vernova, Micron, SanDisk, the list goes on and on.
就在上一个小时，我们收到了思科的成绩单。
Just last hour, we did get results from Cisco.
股价最初因创纪录的营收和利润超预期而上涨，但毛利率未达预期，这可能解释了为什么盘后股价转为下跌。
Shares initially jumped on a record top and bottom line beat, but gross margins fell short of expectations, which could account for the stock turning negative after hours.
Christina Partsnello刚刚采访了CEO。
Christina Partsnello just spoke to the CEO.
她几分钟后就会加入我们。
She'll join us in just a couple of minutes.
另外，我们还要指出，Cerebras在盘后交易中也在下跌，尽管其季度业绩看起来相当强劲。
Also, we should point out Cerebras also falling in the after hour session despite what looked like a fairly strong quarter.
那么，本周从NVIDIA的融资交易到所有强劲的财报，这些是否在传递AI交易回归的信号，还是盘后我们得到的这两个数据点给这波涨势泼了冷水？
So So is this week's action from NVIDIA's financing deal to all the strong earnings sending a signal that the AI trade is back or the two data points we're getting out in the after hour session throwing some cold water on this rally guy?
我认为AI交易已经持续了一段时间了。
Think the AI trade has been intact for a while.
AI交易这个说法，嗯，我不该这么说。
The AI trade well, I shouldn't say that.
AI这个主题一直都挺稳的。
The AI theme has been intact.
但AI交易本身并没有一直都稳，你看这些股票的走势就能看出来。
The AI trade has not been intact, and you can see it in some of the moves we've seen in these stocks.
我是说，一个sandisk股票在八到十个交易日内被腰斩，你还怎么能说它稳呢。
I mean, when a sand disk gets cut in half over the course of eight to ten trading days, you can't say that it's intact.
不过，我觉得从主题上来讲，其实什么都没变。
However, I think sort of thematically, nothing has changed.
我觉得现在大家更关注估值，想弄清楚，好的，投资资本的回报到底在哪。
I think people are now focused on valuations to trying to figure out, okay, where's the return on invested capital?
这能持续多久？
How long can this last?
然后他们也在琢磨，最后谁会赢。
And they're trying to sort of figure out who are gonna be the winners.
正如大卫·所罗门周一说的，谁会成为输家呢？
As David Solomon said on Monday, who are gonna be the losers?
而且会有很多，但今天的情况表明，他们还在享受周一我们在这个演播室采访时带来的余温。
And there will be a lot of But today suggests that they're still basking in the afterglow of the Monday interview we had here on this desk.
是的。
Yeah.
我就直说了。
I'll just say this.
至于这个交易或者主题是否完好，看看我们在零部件供应商那里看到的情况就知道了。
As far as the trade or thematically being intact, I mean, just look at what we saw in the component suppliers.
对吧？
Right?
硬件那帮人，还有盖伊提到的闪迪在八九个交易日内股价腰斩的事。
The hardware guys and to Guy's Point with sandisk getting cut in half in you know nine ten trading days.
然后你再看今天Nebius涨了35%。
And you know I'll just look at what happened in Nebius today up 35%.
你知道，这要么是财报前有很多怀疑情绪，看起来确实是这样。
I mean you know that's either a lot of skepticism that was going into the print and it seemed like that was the case.
或者看看今天，你觉得这像什么？
Or if you look at today, I mean, what does that look like?
看起来是不是对这些股票整体有一种狂热？
Does it look like there's just, you know, overall euphoria as it relates to, you know, these names?
就拿CoreWeave涨了20%来说吧。
I'll just say this with CoreWeave up 20%.
你听我说，如果这些公司不行，如果这些新云厂商表现不好，那你最好小心其他所有东西，因为如果资本支出放缓、需求放缓，它们会是第一批遇到麻烦的。
You know, listen, if these guys are failing, if the neo clouds are not doing well, then you better watch out for everything else because these are the first ones that are gonna have a hard time if you do see a slowdown in CapEx, you see a slowdown in demand.
这里的客户集中度，还有英伟达特别是对CoreWeave的支持，如果这些出问题，那你就有麻烦了。
I mean, the customer concentration that you have here and you have the back stop of NVIDIA specifically in CoreWeave, I mean, then you got a problem.
所以只要看到这些股票重新有热情，那就没问题。
And so as long as you start to see enthusiasm come back into these names, that's fine.
对吧？
Know?
所以再次，我觉得它们这样表现很好，尤其是在最近几周半导体和存储芯片抛售之后。
So again, I think that it's great that these acted this way, especially on the heels of just semi and the memory sell off over the last few weeks.
但别搞错了，所有这些公司都有定价权，这确实会侵蚀那些组件买家的利润率。
But make no mistake about it, with all those companies having pricing power, that does weigh on margins of some of these buyers of those components.
所以我觉得CoreWeave确实很有意思。
So I thought CoreWeave was really interesting.
所以他们的商业模式，非常顺利，利润率也在改善。
So their business model, very much on track, improving in margins.
收入确认的时机有点小问题，但那都不算什么。
I mean, the slight timing of the revenue thing, but that was nothing.
总之，那里有很多值得喜欢的地方。
I mean, there was a lot to like there.
我没有持有CoreWeave。
I don't own CoreWeave.
我确实持有戴尔，那是我最大的仓位。
I do own Dell as my largest position.
显然，如果CoreWeave和其他公司都保持这样的速度，那对他们来说确实很好。
Clearly, that's great for them if CoreWeave is moving at the pace that it is and the others as well.
所以我觉得Guy说得对，主题还是那个主题。
So I think what Guy said, right, the theme is still there.
我们之前因为情境感知遇到了很大的干扰。
We had that huge disruption from situational awareness.
对。
Right.
不过我也觉得英伟达那件事其实挺有意思的。
But I also I thought that NVIDIA thing was actually really interesting.
我们昨天和Steve Eisen讨论过，这算不算一种新的证券？
We were talking about it yesterday with Steve Eisen about, okay, is this a new security?
是不是一种新的资产类别？
Is this new asset class?
他不喜欢这种说法，但确实算是一个新的类别。
He didn't like that that the semantics of that, but it's a it is a new category Uh-huh.
有可能。
Potentially.
而且我觉得这真的能加速发展，让事情更快成熟。
And I think that that can really extend the I think it can sort of mature things faster.
还有一件事，不知道丹和我会不会聊到，但我们之前在那边聊过折旧。
And one other thing that I don't know if Dan and I will get into it or not, but we were talking earlier outside over there about depreciation.
对。
Right.
是的。
And Yeah.
你知道，丹特别喜欢聊折旧。
You know, Dan loves talking about depreciation.
我试着让他聊起来
I try to get him talking
你知道谁不喜欢聊这个吗？
about You know who doesn't like talking you know who doesn't like talking about it?
超大规模云厂商。
The hyperscalers.
我不这么认为。
I don't agree with that.
真的吗？
Really?
我不同意，因为我觉得他们发现，虽然我们有既定的折旧时间表，但实际上这些芯片的使用寿命比预期的要长。
I don't agree because I think they're seeing, you know, we have these depreciation schedules, but in fact, we are finding that those chips are they're they're productive for longer.
对。
Right.
那我觉得最直接的疑问就是，好吧，那你为什么非要立刻马上换到下一个、再下一个呢？对吧。
Now what I would think the bare argument to that is, okay, then why do you need to switch immediately then to the next to the next, Right.
不过我觉得市场上需求挺大的，两种都有人要。
You But I think there's enough demand out there that there's demand for both.
确实如此。
Mhmm.
而且我觉得会有好几种不同的定价模式出现。
And I think you'll have, you know, several different several different pricing models to go to.
那些芯片虽然旧很多，但性能也够用。
Chips that are older, much older, but do the work for good enough.
对。
Right.
蒂姆，你怎么看？
Tim, your thoughts?
嗯，我觉得没人怀疑需求，大家都在担心利润率会变成什么样。
Well, I I I don't think anybody's questioning demand, and I think we're all questioning where margins are gonna get to.
但短期内确实是这样。
But in the short run yeah.
我们后面会多聊思科，但要变现AI，无论你是搞软件、数据中心，还是做硬件设备和基础设施，机会依然很大。
And we'll talk more about Cisco, but, you know, monetizing AI, especially if you're either on the software side, the data center side, really getting into hardware and equipment and and infrastructure, then it's it's still game on.
我想把话题拉回市场，因为我真的没法预测最终会怎样，尤其是超大规模企业的投资和资本支出，可能会被世界其他地方更便宜的开源模型所压制，等等。
And I would just bring it back to the markets because I I I can't predict where we will end up, especially when it comes to hyperscaler investment and CapEx that might be trumped by lower cost open models in the rest of the world, etcetera.
我们说过很多次了，但市场告诉你，EWY，韩国ETF，今天上涨了4.5%，累计上涨了近20%。
We you know, we've had this conversation so many times, but the market is telling you, EWY, Korean ETF, South Korean ETF up four and a half percent today, up almost 20.
我们知道半导体相对于标准普尔的表现。
We know what semiconductors have done relative to the S and P.
换句话说，这项交易自7月29日从100日均线的重要反弹以来又回来了。
In other words, this is this is this trade has been back on certainly since that important bounce on the July 29 off a 100 day.
回到技术层面，半导体又回到50日均线，而且我认为英伟达很关键，这一周很有意思，既要看英伟达，也要看那份措辞谨慎但汇集了全球最顶级私人贷款机构的谅解备忘录，至少讨论这将区别于公开发行和以往的形式。
We're back to again, if you want some technical levels, you you know, we're back to the 50 on semis, and I do think you need NVIDIA, and and and it's it's a fascinating week to watch both NVIDIA and the MOU that didn't say a whole lot, but brought together the most sophisticated private lenders in the world to at least talk about it in the context of this will be different than public, you know, public both issuance and and at least what we've known.
英伟达当然是我们必须关注的股票，而且过去几天我们并没有学到什么新东西。
NVIDIA is the stock that, of course, we have to be watching, and I don't think we learned anything in the last couple days.
就整个交易来说，对。
In in terms of this whole deal Mhmm.
你担心的是贷款背后的资产，我们无法评估它们还能撑多久。
Your concern is that the assets that are backing the loans, we we can't estimate how long they will last.
对。
Yeah.
但这份文件的措辞给人的感觉是，比如英伟达，它算是利益相关方里最重的那一个。如果把那个财团看作整体，他们基本上就是这场交易的‘阿拉莫’（最后防线），对吧？
But the way the thing reads is like, so if if NVIDIA that has the most, I guess, at stake, if you think of that consortium for all intents and purposes, if they are basically the Alamo for all of this, right?
如果情况开始恶化，需要他们的参与来提供最终兜底支持，你觉得这种说法在考虑如何为购买你产品的客户提供融资时，听起来像是个利好信号吗？
If things start to go bad and you need their participation to backstop the term backstop, do you think that sounds like a bullish term as you're thinking about financing your customers buying your products?
这笔交易确实需要有人来兜底。
It needs to be backstopped.
所以再说一次，我觉得你把这么多人都召集到一起，让他们坐到这张谈判桌上，这件事本身就很有意思。
So again, I just think it was really interesting that you put all those folks together, you put them on this table.
正如蒂姆刚才所说，他们确实是金融圈里那些非常聪明的人。
They are literally, as Tim just said, some of those brilliant people that exist in finance, that sort of thing.
要是像我这样普通人都开始质疑这类事情，那才叫傻呢。
And you'd have to be a moron if you're just a guy like me starting to question, you know, this sort of thing.
这可是五千亿美元的大项目，他们打算加速推进支出计划。
It's a $500,000,000,000, and they're gonna kind of accept, you know, accelerate the sort of spend.
不过，你知道的，我们之前还有星门计划。
But, you know, we had Stargate.
还记得一年半前吗？
Remember that a year and a half ago?
我不知道那个项目拿到了多少资金。
I don't know how much that got funded.
当时英伟达投了OpenAI一千亿美元。
We had NVIDIA investing in open AI, a $100,000,000,000.
我也不知道那个最后落实了多少。
I don't know how much that got funded.
软银其实都在拿他们OpenAI的股份去抵押贷款。
SoftBank is actually having to take loans out against their open A.
对。
I.
就是为了能再买更多的OpenAI股份。
Stake so they can buy more open A.
没错。
I.
我是说，怎么说呢，就是那个的抵押品，你知道吧。
I mean, was kind of, you know, or it's the collateral for that, you know.
所以现在情况有点不对劲了。
So things are getting a little funky here.
我觉得越往下深入，很大程度上跟英伟达的竞争有关。
And I think that the further we go into this and I think a lot of it has to do with the fact I'm talking about competition for NVIDIA.
我们有 Radeon，有 Tranium，还有 TPU。
We got Radeon, we got Tranium, we got TPUs.
我是说，这个名单一直列不完，还有 CPU 集群，我想这就是现在发生这种情况的原因。
I mean, list keeps going on and on, CPU clusters, and I think that's why this is happening right now.
我们再来看看AI生态圈里那些盘后异动的股票。
Let's get more into the after hours movers that are in the AI ecosystem trade.
思科和Cerberus，这两只股票都在下跌。
Cisco as well as Cerberus, both stocks trading lower.
两个电话会议都在整点开始。
Both conference calls start at the top of the hour.
克里斯蒂娜，你跟思科的经理聊过了。
Christina, you talked to Cisco manager.
我知道。
I know.
太疯狂了。
Crazy.
但我确实跟两位CEO都聊过。
But I I did speak to both CEOs.
所以这就是为什么我能提供一些有价值的信息。
So that's why that's why I can add some value here.
但思科在发布财报前表现强劲，今年迄今上涨了60%，今天又涨了超过2%。
But Cisco went into this print on a tear up 60% year to date and up more than 2% just today.
公司以创纪录的成绩结束了财年，并将2027财年的人工智能收入目标提高到75亿美元。
The company closed out its fiscal year with a record, raised its fiscal twenty twenty seven AI revenue target to 7,500,000,000.
我说的是收入，因为CEO查克在我提到订单时纠正了我。
I say revenue because Chuck, the CEO, correct me when I said orders.
所以收入是75亿，之前是60亿。
So revenue, 7,500,000,000 up from 6,000,000,000.
但盘后股价却出现了反转。
But after hours, you're seeing shares reverse course.
问题可能出在毛利率上。
The sticking point could be gross margin.
思科给出的指引是65%到66%，略低于市场预期的66.1%。
Cisco guided 65 to 66%, just short of the 66.1% the street wanted.
财报刚出，我就立刻电话联系了CEO查克·罗宾斯，问他内存成本是否在压缩这些利润率。
I got CEO Chuck Robbins on the phone right after the print and asked about memory costs squeezing those margins.
他的原话是：“我不认为内存的情况跟上一季度相比有什么实质性的变化。”
His answer, quote, was, I don't think that anything changed meaningfully from last quarter relative to the memory situation.
相反，他让我关注营业利润率，达到了创纪录的35.9%。
Instead, he actually pointed me to operating margins, a record of 35.9.
就说36%吧，他说这很可能是历史最高水平。
Let's just call it 36%, which he, said probably is an all time high.
毛利率可能会低一些，但量上去了完全能补回来，这基本就是我跟他的沟通中得到的重点。
Gross margins may be lower, but sheer volume more than makes up for it was pretty much the point I got from him.
明天早上九点，当地时间早上六点，我们还会在Squawk on the Street上听到思科CEO查克·罗宾斯聊更多。
And we also hear more from Cisco CEO, Chuck Robbins on Squawk on the street tomorrow morning at 9AM, 6AM his time.
另外，Cerebras公布的核心营收达到2.1亿美元，比去年翻了一倍还多。
Also, reporting Cerebras beat on the top line core revenue of 210,000,000 more than double a year ago.
公司上调了业绩指引，所以起初市场反应比较强，但第三季度毛利率会环比下降。
The company raised its guide, so you initially saw a stronger reaction in the market, but margins will drop sequentially in q three.
我还采访了CEO安德鲁·费尔德曼，他说公司正在“卖力干”。
CEO Andrew Feldman spoke to him too, and he told me the company is, quote, hustling.
他们从客户那里短期租回产能，比如从G42那儿，同时与客户签署长期合同。
It's renting back capacity from customers, from a customer that would be the g 42 on short term deals while signing customers to long term contracts.
所以当我特别问到OpenAI和客户集中度时，费尔德曼说，前沿实验室现在是任何芯片制造商的大头，连英伟达也不例外。
And so when I asked specifically about OpenAI and customer concentration, Feldman said a Frontier Lab is gonna be a big chunk of any chipmaker's business right now, even NVIDIA.
所以市场对客户集中度有些担忧，而且那个季度的硬件销售同比也下降了23%。
So there are some concerns about customer concentration, hardware sales falling 23%, from a year earlier in the quarter too.
所以这是导致下跌的一个主要因素，然后你看到了思科的利润率。
So that was a big driver into the drop, and then, you saw margins for Cisco.
信息量很大。
It's a lot.
我喘口气。
I'm taking breaths.
克里斯蒂娜，谢谢你。
Christina, thank you.
克里斯蒂娜·帕克斯和内比乌斯。
Christina Parks and Nebius.
分析得很到位。
Broke it down well.
对。
Yeah.
如果你只盯着毛利率，那确实可以这么说，但我觉得，就像克里斯蒂娜说的，你得更关注营业利润率，那个数字比市场预期的要好得多，这是好事，对他们来说是好消息。
If you're focused on gross margins, okay, you could say, but you gotta focus, I think, I think, to Christina's point, you have to focus on operating margins, which were, I would say, much better than the Street was looking for, which is a good thing, good for them.
这是最高的生产力水平。
It's the best productivity.
我刚才还在你们之前的节目里聊过这个话题。
I just talked on your prior show.
他们把这叫做
They call that the
首席业务官（CBO）长期来看的表现。
CBO over time.
CBOT。
The CBOT.
我们之前还聊过思科这三十年来生产力表现最好的一次。
And we talked about the best productivity for Cisco in thirty years.
Tim现在好像去了个没人知道的地方，他一直说思科是这波AI交易的核心，他说得没错。
And Tim, who is in parts unknown right now, has been talking about Cisco being sort of the epicenter of this whole AI trade, and he's right.
我的意思是，这就是AI基础设施里硬件部分的情况。
I mean, that's the hardware component of the AI infrastructure component of what's going on.
现在你可能会说，估值不合理，而且从历史上看它很贵，好吧，这个我能接受。
Now, you want to say, you know what, valuation makes no sense, and historically it's rich, okay, I can buy that.
但如果你认为这是AI交易中的成长股，那它实际上算是便宜的。
But if you think this is the growth stock in this AI trade, then it's it's actually sort of cheap.
我是说，Tim一直看好思科，Tim。
I mean, Tim's been on the Cisco train for a while, Tim.
是的。
Yeah.
我确实一直看好。
I have.
对我来说，这曾经是一次软件转型，现在又回到了他们传统的核心业务，变成了AI转型。
And and to me, it was a software transition, and now it's an AI trans back to their old core business.
而且令人惊讶的是，他们现在像一家AI公司一样在增长。
And and it's amazing that they are growing like an AI company.
所以我认为这是运营杠杆，因此，我会提到36%的营业利润率。
And so I I think it is operational leverage, and therefore, I'll talk about a 36% op margin.
我会说AI业务收入从去年的40亿美元增长到27财年7月的大约70亿美元。
And I'll go from 4,000,000,000 last year to 7,000,000,000 in AI revenue in in essentially fiscal twenty seven, July.
我们大概知道会得到什么结果。
We kinda knew what we're gonna get.
对吧？
Right?
我们从DCI、Anet那边已经听到了消息。
We we heard from, you know, DCI, from Anet.
从诺基亚那边也听到了。
We heard it from from Nokia.
我是说，超大规模数据中心的资本支出已经说明了情况，所以我觉得市场也差不多有预期，这也是为什么反应会不一样。
I mean, we we the hyperscalers CapEx tells you what's going on here, and therefore, I think the street kind of expect I think I think that's why there's a different reaction also.
我觉得人们已经预料到了这些数据，而且这只股票最近也涨得不错。
I think people expected these numbers, and I think it the stock's been on a pretty good run.
我会说这是大型科技股里最有价值的一些股票了，而且突然之间，这是一家五千亿美元的公司。
I I would characterize this as some of the best value in mega cap tech, And and suddenly, this is a $500,000,000,000 company.
我们等了好久，才等到他们重新回到过去那种高速增长的日子。
We were waiting for a long time for these guys to kinda get back to the the old go go days.
但我想说的是，还是要回到他们的核心业务上来。
But I I would just bring it back to their core businesses.
他们在数据中心、DCI方面确实很有优势，而且软件业务也在推动利润率上升。
They really are well positioned when it when it comes to data center, DCI, but also the the software side of their business, which is pushing up that margin.
这是一家非常大的公司，也非常重要，我觉得我们不需要担心毛利率的小幅波动。
It's such a big company, such an important company, and I think we I don't think we need to worry about, you know, gross margin ticking.
这不是英伟达那种毛利率的故事。
It's not the story of NVIDIA on gross margin.
嗯，我觉得有趣的一点是，虽然不知道Christine有没有提到，但他们谈到了未来毛利率会略有失望，对吧，不是这个季度。
Well, one thing I think is interesting, but I don't I don't know if Christine was able to touch on it, was they talk about a slight disappointment for what for the for the margins, right, going forward, not for this quarter.
我没听到的是，这是不是一种故意压低预期的做法，还是说实际情况就是这样？
And I didn't hear around was that does is there a sense that's sandbagging or that is actually what it's going to be?
对吧？
Right?
对。
Right.
这差别可大了。
Which makes a big difference.
很多时候，感觉财报只是故事的一半，得听完电话会才行。
A lot of times, feel like earnings are only half the story until you get the call.
不过我不知道他们有没有进入问答环节，但那是我真的很想关注的点。
But maybe I don't know if they're through the q and a or not, but that'll be something I really wanna look at.
但我觉得这挺有意思的。
But I I think it's an interesting story.
我也觉得是这样。
I think it Girl.
你说吧。
Go ahead.
抱歉。
Sorry.
不。
No.
不。
No.
请讲。
Go ahead.
请讲。
Go ahead.
我觉得现在股价的走势更多反映的是市场情绪，大家还是围绕这个交易，同时也在寻找其他方式来表达这种看法。
I think the the way the stock's trading right now speaks more about sentiment in and around again the trade and and folks looking to broaden it out and find some other ways to express this.
如果你想想那个66%的毛利率，回到两个季度前，我们昨晚还在讨论这个。
If you think about that 66 gross margin, if you go back two quarters, we were talking about it last night.
我的意思是，当时股价在90美元，二月初发布第二财季财报时直接跌到80美元。
I mean, stock was trading at 90, went straight to 80 when they released their fiscal Q2 in early February.
它被抛售，因为他们基本上下调了毛利率预期。
It got killed because they basically guided down that gross margin.
我觉得大家原本预期会高一个百分点左右。
I think it was expected to be maybe a point higher.
然后，当他们上个季度报告时，回到五月初，股价在100美元，然后跳空高开15美元，但基本上没有超过那个被下调的毛利率预期。
Well, then when they reported in the last quarter, going back to early May, the stock was trading at a 100 and it gaps up, you know, $15, and they basically didn't beat that lowered expectation as far as gross margins.
他们只是符合预期。
They came in line.
那你知道他们刚刚给出的毛利率指引是多少吗？
Well, here, do you know what they just guided to for their gross margin?
66%。
66 percent.
我的意思是，所以，我的观点是，这在一定程度上反映了投资者在寻找什么。
I I mean, so, like, my point is is, like, this speaks, I think, a little bit towards what investors are looking for.
他们对其他一些交易已经有点厌倦了。
They're kind of full up on some of these other trades.
他们看到了很多存储芯片和半导体股票的交易方式，而这只股票看起来相当安全，尤其是考虑到他们在AI业务上每年都能获得的那种增长。
They see the way that a lot of these memories and semis have traded, and this seems pretty safe, especially when you get the sort of growth that they're getting year over year on that AI business.
而且他们的传统网络业务显然做得非常好。
And their traditional networking business is obviously doing really well.
他们在拿订单方面有了突破。
They're breaking out where they're getting the orders.
超大规模云厂商都在大笔投入，这非常合情合理。
The hyperscalers are spending a lot, and that makes a whole heck of a lot of sense.
所以我现在是比较认同他们这边。
So I'm kind of with these guys.
我觉得这个票现在不会让你吃亏，但要是需求一转弱，他们也会受打击。
I think you don't get hurt in this name right here, but they're also going to get hit if you do see a pullback in demand.
我觉得那些后进场的人就是挨打的对象，你现在在内存市场就能看到。
I think some of the Johnny come lately is the ones and you're seeing that actually in memory right now.
还有那些比较靠后、进得晚的交易，在下跌时被砸得最狠，至少市场对这个行业的兴奋情绪一降温，它们就首当其冲。
Some of these later trades, these later stage things, they got hit the hardest when the market sold off or at least when there was some sort of abatement in the excitement about the trade.
所以思科现在的情况让我挺不解的：同样的增长速度、同样的利润率，但股价在过去一年左右却差不多翻了一倍。
So Cisco right now, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that you're seeing some of the same sort of growth rates and the same margins, but the stock has basically doubled in the last year or so.
贵不贵啊，Guy？
Expensive or not expensive, Guy?
从历史估值来看确实偏贵，不过咱们先别管那些疯狂增长的阶段了。但如果你把它放在整个增长周期里看，不管他们是处于核心位置还是边缘位置，我觉得这价格还算合理。
Expensive historic well, I mean forget about the go go days, but it's expensive historically, but if you think it's part of this whole growth cycle, and if, again, if they're sort of, whether they're in the epicenter or tangentially there, I mean, it's not.
他们的增长和运营利润率都很不错，就像Tim说的那样，生产力也在提升。而且你看，市场上有人愿意给比Cisco差的公司付25倍以上的溢价，所以Cisco现在的估值算是公道的。
The growth, operating margins are great, to Tim's point, productivity is there, and I think their growth suggests, listen, people paying a lot more than 25 times for companies that are not as good as Cisco, so I think it is fair.
接下来，Meta将出庭受审。
Coming up, Meta heads to trial.
儿童社交媒体成瘾案今日冲击股价，以及这会对Instagram母公司未来意味着什么。
The children's social media addiction case hitting shares today and what it could mean for the future of Instagram parent.
此外，麦当劳的势头强劲，一家机构看好其看涨格局并上调了金色拱门的目标价，这只股票是否已准备好开启下一轮大幅上涨？
Plus, McDonald's momentum, the bullish set up one firm season shares of the golden arches, and whether the stock is ready for its next supersize run.
别走开，马上回来，两分钟后见。
Do not go anywhere fast when he's back in two.
这里是CNBC的《快钱》节目，我是Melissa Lee。
This is fast money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我一点也不怕
I have no fear of
失败。
failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你老板的老板需要什么。
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力的表现形式可以非常多样。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，想要成就大事，就得敢想大目标。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博森主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力玩家》节目。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新集，无论你在哪里收听播客。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目，金融板块正在攀升，有望连续第十一周上涨，这一涨势部分得益于资产管理公司的反弹，如Blue Owl、KKR、黑石和Ares。
Welcome back to fast money financials climbing the sector on pace for its eleventh straight week of gains, a rally fueled in part by the rebound in asset management firms like Blue Owl, KKR, Blackstone, and Ares.
这些股票在过去一个月内都上涨了两位数。
All those stocks up double digits in just the past month.
银行股也在上涨，摩根大通和美国银行今天创下历史新高。
Banks also rising with JPMorgan, Bank of America hitting fresh record highs today.
哇。
Wow.
你怎么看这波行情？
What do you make of this run?
不错。
Fine.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
我对此感到高兴。
I'm happy about that.
我觉得我明白为什么，你知道，我们认为经济在好转。
I think that I understand why, you know, we think the economy is doing better.
那太好了。
That's great.
贷款，那太好了。
Loan, that's great.
回想起来，你知道，关于这个证券化的事情，至少对高盛来说，嗯。
I think back, you know, with this securitization thing, at least for Goldman Sachs Mhmm.
会很好。
Will be great.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我不确定为什么摩根大通没有参与，或者他们是否会参与。
I'm not sure why JPMorgan's not in it or if they would be.
我不知道。
I don't know.
但机会很多。
But there's lots of light.
信贷质量仍然很好。
Credit quality is still good.
而且如果他们有大额债务市场、资本市场、IPO之类的业务。
And then they if they have big debt markets, capital markets, IPOs, those kind of things.
不错。
Nice.
但我不会说他们现在被低估了。
But I wouldn't say they're a value right here.
对。
Right.
继续做多，考虑卖一些上行期权。
Staying long, look to sell some upside costs.
凯伦一直坚持做多是对的，而且它很长时间都不是价值股了。
Karen's been right to stay long, and it hasn't been a value in a long time.
这是杰米·戴蒙的话，不是我的。
Jamie Diamond's words, not mine.
我的意思是，他过去几年一直在谈这个，而且你知道，周一他们明显缺席了，但贝基·奎克提到了这一点。
I mean, he's talked about this for the last couple of years, and, you know, they were noticeable by their absence clearly on Monday, but Becky Quick addressed that.
可能以后还会有更多。
It's probably more to come down the road.
我一直在关注花旗银行，它自发布财报以来表现不佳，我想说，如果你在寻找真正能提供价值的东西，那就是花旗银行，股价大概在138美元左右。
I continue to look at Citibank, which has not traded well since their earnings release, and say if you're looking for something that actually provides value, it comes in the form of letter c at what, one thirty eight or something like that.
对。
Yeah.
蒂姆，花旗还是你的首选吗？
Tim, is is Citi still your top?
是的。
Yeah.
我喜欢它的估值，也喜欢它的盈利势头和利润率势头。
I'd I'd I'd like the valuation, but I'd like the earnings momentum, the margin momentum.
我觉得这个公司的核心业务都在稳步推进。
I think it's a story where their core businesses are executing.
它不像投行业务或者销售交易那样吸引眼球，但公司治理改进、利润率提升，再加上这个估值，在市场对金融股有些担忧的时候，反而很有吸引力。
It's not as sexy of an investment banking or even a sales and trading play, but I I think the corporate governance improvements and the margin improvements and the valuation at a time when people are a little worried about financials.
所以我很看好它。
So I like it.
我也看好美国银行和摩根大通。
I like Bank of America along that and JPMorgan.
那你是不是很意外摩根大通没参加那次圆桌讨论？
Are you so you are surprised that JPMorgan was not part of that roundtable?
对。
Mhmm.
因为詹森说他去找了这些公司，他们都答应了。
Because Jensen said that he approached these firms and all of them said yes.
他找的每一家公司都答应了，也就是说，那些没参与的公司根本就没被找过。
Every firm that he approached said yes, which means that firms the that are not part of it were not approached at all.
也不一定。
Not necessarily.
等等。
Wait.
确实，他们答应了。
It does they said yes.
是说他们愿意参加节目，还是只是说好？
We'll do the show or yes?
哦，
Oh,
不。
no.
不。
No.
我们会做设施。
We'll do facility.
这个设施。
This facility.
看吧。
See.
好的。
Okay.
那也许现在他们不是。
Then maybe at the moment, they're not.
他们也许，我不知道。
They were maybe I don't know.
我对此完全没有什么特别的见解。
I have no particular insight into this at all.
我只是觉得这很值得注意。
I just found it notable.
还有一点也值得注意。
Also notable.
只有英伟达。
It was only NVIDIA.
对。
Right.
正是如此。
Exactly.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
非常值得注意。
Very notable.
对。
Mhmm.
接下来还会有更多快钱涌入。
A lot more fast money to come.
接下来有什么内容呢。
Here's what's coming up next.
Meta面临关键时刻。
Meta's moment of reckoning.
这场关于社交媒体成瘾的标志性审判今天波及股价，而且后续影响可能威胁到它在人工智能领域的雄心。
The landmark trial over social media addiction hitting shares today, and whether the fallout could threaten its AI ambitions.
另外，今年还有三次加息。
Plus, three rate hikes.
通胀数据依然顽固，一家公司对美联储收紧政策的基准预期进行了加倍押注。
This year, one firm doubling down on its base case for Fed tightening as inflation data remains stubborn.
您现在收看的是在时代广场纳斯达克市场现场直播的《Fast Money》节目。
You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square.
广告之后，我们马上回来。
We're back back right after this.
是什么让你有信心去做一件从未有人做成过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我一点都不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
敢于破局的女性先锋们。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中
One of
我最喜欢的一条建议是，想想你老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有很多种不同的体现方式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
展开剩余字幕（还有 468 条）
归根结底，就是得相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，你得有远大的目标才能做成大事。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Julia BofA Welcome
这里是美银 Julia BofA Welcome
back to Fast Money.
Meta股价今日下跌超过3%，因为陪审团遴选已在加州一家联邦法院开始，该公司正被起诉涉嫌损害儿童心理健康。
Shares of Meta down over 3% today as jury selection began in a California federal court where the company is being sued for allegedly harming the mental health of children.
朱莉娅·博森带来了详细报道。
Julia Borson's got the details here.
朱莉娅。
Julia.
梅丽莎，没错。
Melissa, that's right.
这次联邦审判是对Meta青少年安全指控的最大考验。
This federal trial is the biggest test yet of youth safety allegations against Meta.
加州、科罗拉多州、肯塔基州和新泽西州指控Meta设计其平台以使用户上瘾。
California, Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey alleged that Meta designed its platform to addict users.
此外，29个州声称Meta违反了《儿童在线隐私保护法》，收集和使用儿童数据。
Plus, 29 states claimed that Meta violated the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act by collecting and using children's data.
Meta在文件中表示，损害赔偿可能高达1.4万亿美元，接近其市值。
Now Meta said in a filing that the damages could be as high as $1,400,000,000,000, which is close to its market cap.
此外，各州还要求对Meta的算法进行重大改革，包括取消无限滚动和通知，让Meta优先关注健康内容而非参与度，并对年轻用户实施年龄限制和时间限制。
Plus, the states are asking for big changes to Meta's algorithm, including eliminating infinite scroll and notifications, making Meta prioritize content focused on well-being instead of focused on engagement, implementing age restrictions and time limits for young users.
Meta表示，我们强烈反对这些指控，并相信证据将显示我们长期以来对支持年轻人的承诺。
Now Meta saying, quote, we strongly disagree with these allegations and are confident the evidence will show our longstanding commitment to supporting young people.
他们还说，我们为取得的进展感到自豪，并一直在努力做得更好。
Going on to say we're proud of the progress we've made and we're always working to do better.
Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格和Instagram负责人亚当·莫塞里预计都将在此次审判中作证，审判预计将持续约七周。
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Instagram head Adam Mosseri are both expected to testify in this trial, which is set to launch around to set to last around seven weeks.
梅丽莎？
Melissa?
朱莉娅，事情发展到这个地步，而且Meta没有设法通过某种和解来避免马克·扎克伯格或莫塞里出庭作证，你感到惊讶吗？
Julia, are you surprised that it's gone this far and that Meta hasn't somehow engaged in some sort of settlement in order to avoid Mark Zuckerberg or Mosseri from actually testifying in court?
他们以前也作过证，梅丽莎。
They've testified before, Melissa.
这不是他们第一次作证了。
This wouldn't be the first time they've testified.
Meta认为他们有很强的辩护理由。
Meta thinks it has a strong defense.
他们认为这些州提出的论点相当狭隘。
It thinks that the arguments are quite narrow that we're seeing from these states.
我也觉得各州的总检察长希望这个案子能上法庭。
I also think that the state AGs would like this to go to court.
我想他们希望能有机会陈述他们的观点。
I think they'd like to be able to make their case.
而且记住，梅丽莎，不只是这个案子。
And remember, Melissa, it's not just this case.
这是今年和明年我们看到的一系列诉讼之一，这些诉讼被拿来和几十年前针对大烟草公司的所有诉讼相比。
This is one of a series of lawsuits that we're seeing this year and next year, which are being compared to the big tobacco moment where all of those lawsuits came up against big tobacco, decades ago.
问题是这些诉讼如何协同作用。
The question is how these all these lawsuits work together.
还有一些学区提起的诉讼。
There are also some lawsuits filed by school districts.
所以不只是这一个案子，也许有很多机会让马克·扎克伯格出庭作证。
So it's not just this one case, but perhaps many opportunities to get Mark Zuckerberg on the stand.
朱莉娅，我是凯伦。
Julia, it's Karen.
谢谢你上节目。
Thanks for being on.
那么对于这个案子，时间安排是怎样的？
So for this case, what's the timing of this
这个案子？
case?
七个星期。
Seven weeks.
所以今天选陪审团。
So jury selection is today.
开庭陈述在周二，据说要持续大约七个星期。
The opening statements are on Tuesday, and it's said to last about seven weeks.
我说我们预计马克·扎克伯格和亚当·奥西里会作证，但我们不确定。
And I say we're expecting Mark Zuckerberg and Adam Ossieri to testify, but we don't know for sure.
会有直播。
It will be livestreamed.
我之前报道过新墨西哥州的一个案子。
I was reporting on a case that was in New Mexico.
那个案子有直播。
That one, there was a live stream.
还有另一个案子在洛杉矶，扎克伯格出庭作证了，但那里没有直播。
There was another case in Los Angeles where Zuckerberg testified, and there was no live stream there.
但因为这次有直播，而且这么多州的检察长都参与其中，这个案子预计会吸引最多的关注。
But because there is a live stream, because there are all of these state AGs involved, this one is expected to draw the most attention.
我觉得这是风险最高的，无论是从财务影响还是算法可能的变化来看。
I would say it's the highest stakes in terms of both the financial implications as well as potential changes to the algorithm.
所以我们就看看接下来这七周会怎么发展吧。
So we'll see how these next seven weeks go.
朱莉。
Julie.
潜在的财务影响是什么？
What are the potential financial implications?
Meta在法庭文件中表示，可能被迫支付高达1.4万亿美元的罚款。这当然是个巨大的数字。
So Meta said in a court filing that it could be forced to pay fines of as high as $1,400,000,000,000 Now that is, of course, a massive, massive number.
而且值得注意的是，各州的检察长并没有给出这些数字。
And it's worth noting that the state AGs have not given those numbers.
有可能所有不同潜在违规的罚款加起来会达到那个数字。
It's possible that all of the fines for all of the different potential violations would add up to that.
但我认为Meta是想强调这个数字有多么巨大，以显示它可能与其应用和算法的影响不相称。
But I think Meta is trying to highlight how massive that number is to show maybe it's out of sync with the impact of its apps and its algorithms.
所以我认为对Meta来说，可能比它可能要支付的罚款更危险的是算法的改变，因为到目前为止它已经支付过罚款，他们在最近的财报中也提到了这一点。
So I think perhaps even more dangerous for Meta than the fee it might pay, because so far it's had to pay fees, they talked about that in their most recent earnings, are the changes to the algorithm.
因为那会对公司产生长期影响，而不仅仅是一次性费用。
Because that would have long lasting implications for the company beyond a one time fee.
对。
Yeah.
朱莉娅，谢谢你。
Julia, thank you.
朱莉娅·沃斯顿。
Julia Worston.
蒂姆，这对你来说有多大的压力？
Tim, how much of an overhang to you is this?
我觉得这比过去更严重了，而且我明白我们已经习惯了Meta面临各种不利因素，尤其是在公众舆论的法庭上。
I think it's more than it has been in the past, and and I I I realize we've gotten very comfortable with Meta having all kinds of dynamics against it, certainly in the in the courtroom of public opinion.
但我觉得这里有几件事。
But I I I there's a couple things here.
首先，苹果和橘子，看看年龄限制和障碍，以及它摧毁了那个股票。
First of all, apples and oranges, look at age restrictions and roadblocks and what it's destroyed that that stock.
它摧毁了那家公司。
It's destroyed that company.
我明白我们这里的情况不同。
I understand we have a different dynamic here.
我也想到了那天听到的扎克伯格的宣言。
I I do also just think about the the manifesto that I heard from Zuckerberg the other day.
他说的除了试图开放和试图在他们的模型以及一些关于AI的担忧上获得更大的灵活性之外，没有别的。
There's nothing in what he said other than trying to be open and trying to necessarily have greater flexibility in their model and and some of the the concerns around AI.
但我也听到了很多支出，我仍然认为那是一个动态因素。
But I also heard a lot of spending, and I still think that's a dynamic.
我看了一下那张图表。
I look at that chart.
对于一家大公司来说，这图表真是够奇怪的。
It's one of the weirdest charts for a major, major company.
趋势一直在往下走，而且还没有反转的迹象。
The trend is down, and it and it hasn't reversed that.
很难相信它曾经创下历史新高。
Hard to believe it made its all time high.
我记得差不多一年前，就是这周或下周，股价在800美元左右。
I want to say almost a year ago, either this week or next week, dollars 800 or thereabouts.
现在看看我们在哪里，Tim说得对。
You see where we are now, and Tim is right.
我的意思是，它一直是一系列的高点更低、低点更低，但除了这里，你还能在哪里找到，Karen可以证实，以他们那样的增长率，明年市盈率只有17倍的公司。
I mean, it's been a series of lower highs and lower lows, but where else are you going to find, Karen can speak to this, 17 times next year's numbers with the kind of growth rate they have.
我明白这里的情况，但尽管如此，你得承认，大部分，如果不是全部，现在应该已经反映在股价里了。
I understand what's going on here, but notwithstanding, you have to say most of this, if not in the entirety, should be priced in at this point.
是的，不过增长预计会放缓。
Yeah, well growth is expected to slow.
我们预计今年每股收益增长12%，明年降到9%。
We're going from 12% expected this year of EPS to 9% next year.
所以当你考虑这些不利因素时，我也不知道。
So when you think about these overhangs, mean, I don't know.
他们不会被罚一万亿美元，但你知道谁在作证时表现特别差吗？
They're not going be charged a trillion dollars, but you know who's really bad at testifying?
马克·扎克伯格在作证时表现特别差。
Mark Zuckerberg is really bad at testifying.
我们一次又一次地看到这一点，而且有趣的是，艺术在模仿生活。
We've seen that again and again, and it's really interesting that we have art imitating life.
艾伦·索金正在写或者已经编写并导演了这部电影，叫《社交清算》，杰瑞米·斯特朗饰演扎克伯格，内容正是关于这个问题。
Aaron Sorkin is writing this or wrote and directed this movie called The Social Reckoning, and Jeremy Strong is playing Zuckerberg, and it is exactly about this issue.
电影将在十月份上映。
It's coming out in October.
所以我觉得这真的挺搞笑的。
So I just think it's really funny.
他们的产品覆盖了全球三分之一的人。
We got third of the planet on their products.
他们把我们所有人的脑子都搞坏了，全都一样。
They broke our brains, all of them.
这不只是关于孩子的问题。
It's not just about kids.
所以归根结底，我觉得应该有个了结。
And so at the end of the day, I think there should be some sort of reckoning.
我不是说这一定要反映在股价上，尤其是考虑到他们确实有的财务表现。
I'm not saying it has to be in the stock, especially when you consider the financial performance that they do have.
另外，别搞错了，他们在AI方面正在落后。
Make no mistake about it also, they're losing in AI.
他们就是做得不太好，而且他们在这个项目上有很好的分发渠道，但他们一直反复无常。
They're just not doing particularly well, and they have amazing distribution for this project, they keep going back and forth.
我跟你说个事儿。
Let me tell you something.
当你写一份6500页或者6500字的宣言，还得把它登在《华尔街日报》上，那你肯定不是赢家。
When you're writing a 6,500 page or a 6,500 word manifesto and you have to put it in the Wall Street Journal, you're you're not winning.
我的意思是，咱们得说清楚。
I mean, like, that's let's just be clear.
所以，这只股票交易这么差，很可能是有充分理由的。
So there's probably pretty good reasons why the stock trades this poorly.
他们以前也经历过这种情况。
So they've been there before.
当然，确实如此。
It's Sure.
对吧？
Right?
还记得剑桥分析公司的隐私丑闻吧，那件事闹得很大，花了一段时间才平息，但最终还是解决了。
So remember we had the Cambridge Analytica privacy scandal, and that was a big to do, and took a while to clear up, but it did.
这个我不会感到意外。
This I wouldn't be surprised.
不管这次审判结果如何，我觉得我们可能还是会处于这种状况。
This regardless of what happens in this trial, I think we could still be in this situation.
谁知道呢？
We're who knows?
好几年吧。
Several years.
与此同时，元宇宙又重演了一遍，投入巨大，但回报未知。
At the same time, you have the metaverse happening all over again with the spend of un you know, just enormous spend with unknown return.
所以我觉得这些因素拖累了股价，从高点跌了122美元，哦抱歉，是222美元，嗯。
So those that I think weighs on the stock, I guess, the $122 since or I'm sorry, $222 Mhmm.
从高点跌了那么多，确实不少。
Since the peak, which is a lot.
一直以来，基础业务其实表现很好。
All along, the underlying business is really performing.
这是一家非常出色的公司。
It's an extraordinary business.
不幸的是，现在它被资本支出和诉讼问题层层包裹，就像裹了一层巧克力，但吃起来味道并不好。
Unfortunately, now, you know, in a chocolate covered cap ex, you know, litigation crust that it doesn't really taste so good.
所以，我也不太确定。
So I I don't know.
我仍然持有它的股票。
I'm still long.
当然，我持有的比之前少了。
I'm long less than I was for sure.
对。
Mhmm.
但我确实认为现在的估值很有吸引力。
But I do think the valuation here is compelling.
接下来，我们来聊聊通胀的等待游戏。
Coming up, the inflation waiting game.
最新的CPI数据表明，物价还没有高到让人恐慌，但也没有低到可以宣布胜利。
The latest CPI print suggesting prices aren't hot enough to panic about, but not cool enough to declare victory.
这对市场下一步走势意味着什么？快钱节目马上回来。
What it means for the next move in markets when fast money returns.
错过了快钱节目的精彩瞬间？
Missed a moment of fast?
随时随地收听我们的节目。
Catch us anytime on the go.
关注快钱播客。
Follow the fast money podcast.
广告之后马上回来。
We're back right after this.
欢迎回到快钱节目，周三股市大多走高。
Welcome back to Fast Money stocks mostly higher in Wednesday trade.
道指仅下跌20点，连续第三个交易日收跌，而标普500指数上涨了0.25%。
The Dow off by just 20 points for a third straight session in the red, while the S and P rose by a quarter percent.
纳斯达克上涨了0.5%。
Nasdaq added half a percent.
黄金收涨0.5%，目前交易价格创下两个多月来的新高。
Gold settling half a percent higher, now trading at more than two month highs.
金价正逼近每盎司4500美元。
Prices now closing in on $4,500 an ounce.
盖璞股价下跌超过3%，此前杰富瑞将该股评级下调至持有，目标价为23美元。
Gap falling over 3% after Jefferies downgraded the stock to a hold with a $23 price target.
分析师越来越担心Old Navy的需求趋势疲软，该品牌占公司销售额的50%以上。
Analysts growing concerned about softer demand trends at Old Navy with that brand making it more than 50% of the company's sales.
还有一条财报消息要告诉你，StubHub因财报不及预期而股价下跌。
And another earnings alert to bring you, StubHub sinking after earnings fell short of estimates.
营收超出预期。
The revenues beat expectations.
公司还上调了全年商品交易总额的预期。
The company also raised its full year outlook for gross merchandise sales.
得问问你，盖伊，关于黄金的事。
Gotta go to you, Guy, on gold.
这里创下两个月新高。
Two month highs here.
我们一直在说，首先，我从没想过它会跌到那么低。
What we've been saying first of all, I never thought it'd get as low as it did.
但它确实跌了。
It did.
不过过去一个月左右，我们又回到了这里。
But here we are over the last month or so.
它交易得很好。
It's traded well.
看看黄金矿业股。
Look at the gold mining stocks.
它们告诉你这是真的，因为它们表现更好。
They're telling you this is real because they've out performed.
但我要说的是，我们曾认为当债券市场恶化时，历史上是个逆风，会变成顺风，我觉得现在正在发生。
But I'll say this, we thought at a point when the bond market deteriorates historically a headwind, that was gonna become a tailwind, and I think that's what's happening now.
我是说，我们在金属领域到处都能看到这种情况，Tim。
I mean, we're seeing it across the board with metals, Tim.
我知道你在关注铜。
I know you're watching copper.
你在关注铝。
You're watching aluminum.
这些都在飙升。
All those surging.
它们是一起波动的。
They are trading together.
我还认为，在工业金属和非贵金属方面，有全球需求。
I I also think, on the industrial metals and and nonprecious, you have global demand.
你肯定看到进口到中国的数据，但你也看到力拓和一些综合矿商的数据，这些数据支持价格走高。
You are definitely seeing imports, into China, but you're also seeing some numbers out of Rio Tinto and some of the integrated miners that support prices going higher.
铜价接近历史高点，我认为会保持在那里。
Copper prices near all time highs, I think they stay there.
在黄金方面，各国央行已经回归了。
On the gold side, central banks have returned.
他们从四月份开始回归，但真正改变GDX走势的是ETF资金流入，抱歉，是24吨的ETF需求在过去三周内被加入，这才是推动底层资产变动的因素。
They started returning in April, but what really has changed the move for the GDX is that the ETF flows 24,000,000,000 tons, excuse me, 24 tons of essentially ETF demand were added in the last three weeks, and that's what's moved the underlying.
所以，我不想看到黄金变得过于狂热，因为我认为那会使其更像一种交易而非投资。
So, I I don't wanna see gold get euphoric because I I think that turns it more into a trade than an investment.
好的。
Alright.
与此同时，今天公布了新的通胀数据。
Meanwhile, new inflation data out today.
七月份消费者价格指数上涨了0.1%，年化率为3.4%。
Consumer prices in July rising a tenth of a percent to an annual rate of 3.4%.
这份报告与华尔街的预期一致。
The report coming in line with Wall Street estimates.
美国银行证券在给客户的报告中坚持其三次加息的预测，但附带了一个条件。
BofA Securities sticking with its three rate hike forecast following the print in a note to clients, but it comes with a caveat.
阿迪蒂·巴夫是这一预测的负责人。
Aditi Bhave is behind the call.
他是该公司美国经济部门的负责人。
He is the firm's head of US economics.
阿迪蒂，很高兴你能来我们节目。
Aditi, great to have you with us.
所以，你仍然预测三次加息。
So still, you're calling for three.
情况没有变化。
Nothing has changed.
为什么？
Why?
好的。
Sure.
所以我们现在对美联储的看法，跟一年前相比，简单多了。
So the way we think about the Fed is pretty simple compared to a year ago.
失业率下降了。
The unemployment rate is down.
通胀上升了，离目标更远了，但政策利率却比之前低了75个基点。
Inflation is up and further away from target, and yet the policy rate is 75 basis points lower than it was.
所以这在我们看来不合理。
So that doesn't make sense to us.
我们认为他们需要收回那75个基点的降息。
We think they need to take back those 75 basis points of cuts.
他们当时是在对冲劳动力下行风险，但那个风险并没有真正出现。
They were hedging hedging against downside risk to labor that didn't really materialize.
而且我们认为，鉴于股市目前的情况，没有迹象表明金融状况特别紧张。
And we think given where stocks are, there's no sign that financial provisions are particularly tight.
嗯。
Mhmm.
感觉政策利率应该更高。
Feels like policy rates should be higher.
那么我们就假设这是既定事实。
So let's say that's that's a given.
情况就是这样。
That's the case.
政策利率应该更高。
Policy rates should be higher.
你觉得这会发生吗？
Do you think that will happen?
我们认为会的，因为如果他们不加息，那么几个月后我们可能会面临相当棘手的局面。
We think it will because if they don't hike, then I think we'll be facing a fairly challenging situation a few months down the line.
我们知道数据存在季节性。
We know there's seasonality in the data.
每年到了这个时候，情况看起来都会稍微偏向鸽派。
Every time we come around to this time of the year, things look a little more dovish.
年初的时候，就业增长强劲，通胀较高，情况看起来更偏鹰派。
At the start of the year, job growth is stronger, inflation is higher, things look more hawkish.
这次不同的是，三十年期国债收益率已经达到5.25%，十年期是4.70%。
The difference this time is that the thirty year is already at five twenty five, the ten year is at four seventy.
如果他们现在不加息，而明年初数据再次转鹰，他们将面临长期收益率脱锚的严重风险。
If they don't hike now and the data turn hawkish again early next year, they're facing a very serious risk that the long end could get unanchored.
好的。
Okay.
我同意你的看法。
I'm with you.
在这个数据点之前，就业数据简直是一场灾难。
Until this data point, the jobs number was a disaster.
现在你可以说那是一次性的，一切都很好。
Now you could say it was a one off and everything's fine.
失业率略有下降，但在表面之下，还有其他情况在发生。
Unemployment rate ticked lower, but under the surface, something else is happening here.
所以在这种情况下加息可能会有问题。
So hiking into that could be problematic.
我还是要反驳一下。
I'm gonna push back again.
请讲。
Please.
我不认为就业数据是灾难性的。
I don't think the jobs number was a disaster.
美联储已经告诉我们，而且我完全同意，目前平衡就业增长几乎接近于零。
The Fed has told us, and I absolutely agree, that breakeven job growth right now is pretty close to zero.
劳动力几乎不增长。
The labor force is barely growing.
在这种情况下，出现这样的月份是正常的。
In that situation, you're going to get months like this.
还有季节性因素，我们知道每年这个时候的数据都会稍微疲软一些。
Then there's the seasonality issue where we know that the data are a little bit softer on this time of the year.
如果看全年平均，我们每个月仍然增加大约五万个工作岗位，我觉得这完全没问题，而且失业率在下降。
If you average over the full year, we're still growing around 50,000 jobs per month, which I think is absolutely fine, and the unemployment rate's falling.
那你觉得市场现在会试探美联储吗？
So you think the market's gonna test the Fed at this point?
我是说，美联储已经给自己批准了。
I mean, the the Fed has approved itself.
对。
Yep.
我，我，我觉得会。
I I I think so.
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Exactly.
那假设下次会议他们不加息呢？
So let's say at the next meeting, they don't hike.
对。
Yep.
我的意思是，你预测的三次加息，什么时候会发生？
I mean, when do the your forecast of three hikes, when do they happen?
你觉得它们应该什么时候发生？
When do you think they should happen?
我们预计在九月、十月和十二月。
We have them happening in September, October, and December.
当然，时间上存在不确定性。
Admittedly, there's uncertainty around the timing.
有很多种可能的情况。
There's there's many permutations.
当然，如果未来几个月的通胀数据疲软。
Certainly, inflation data are soft over the next couple months.
他们就不会在九月加息，可能会推迟。
They won't go in September, and they might start later.
所以我们对此持开放态度。
So we're open minded to that.
那我们再回到美联储和沃什面临的压力上来。
So just coming back to this pressure on the Fed again and on Worsh.
对。
Yep.
你觉得是不是因为中期选举，他们面临的政治压力太大，以至于不敢加息？
I mean, do you think because of the midterms that there's just so much political pressure for them not to hike?
没错。
Right.
所以我觉得他们不会在十月份开始加息。
So I don't think they'll start in October.
那离中期选举太近了。
That's too close to the midterms.
如果他们已经开始了，十月份可能会继续，但我觉得他们不会在中期选举前六天把自己卷入这个话题。
If they've already started, they might continue in October, but I don't think they would insert themselves into the conversation six days before the midterms.
对。
Yeah.
他们要么九月开始，要么十二月开始。
They either start in September or start in December.
嗯。
Mhmm.
那你怎么看这个观点：通胀的主要推手，比如油价、能源价格，会回落，这些因素会消散，关税的影响也会逐渐消退，所以我们不会有那么大的上行压力。
Well, how about the argument that a a big driver of inflation, oil prices, energy prices, they will fall off, that those would dissipate, that the impact of the tariffs will roll off as well, and so therefore, we won't have as much upward pressure.
对。
Right.
好问题。
Great question.
所以我们关注的不是整体通胀。
So we're not focused on headline inflation.
我们知道整体通胀会先上升，然后很快下降。
We knew headline was gonna go up and then come down pretty fast.
关键是核心通胀。
It's about the core.
关于关税，实际上，过去十二个月关税的影响可能比去年同期要低一些。
On tariffs, actually, the twelve month impact of tariffs is probably a little bit lower than it was at this time last year.
所以关税已经在逐渐消退。
So tariffs are already rolling off.
啊，那我们面临的问题比想象中更严重。
Ah, so we have a bigger problem than we think then.
我们面临的问题确实比想象中更严重。
We have a bigger problem than we think.
这里有一个思考方式。
So here's one way to think about it.
六月份核心个人消费支出通胀率为3.3%。
3.3% core PC inflation as of June.
我们估计其中大约40个基点来自关税，20个基点来自伊朗，还有大约20个基点会在九月份被修正掉。
We think about 40 basis points of that was tariffs, 20 basis points was Iran, and about 20 basis points will get revised away in September.
对。
Mhmm.
所以，如果美联储一切顺利，没有出任何差错——当然生活不是这样——但如果一切顺利，你还是会看到2.5%的通胀。
So if everything goes right for the Fed and nothing goes wrong, and that's not how life works, but if everything goes right, you're still at two five.
在劳动力市场基本处于平衡状态的情况下，这可是相当大的超调。
That's a pretty big overshoot when the labor market is looking basically in equilibrium.
对吧？
Right?
所以政策应该稍微收紧一些。
So policy should be a little restrictive.
但我们认为现在并没有。
We don't think it is.
这就是为什么我们认为他们会加息。
That's why we think they hike.
在什么情况下你会担心美联储不会采取行动，从而改变你的预测？
At what point do you get concerned that the Fed will not act and therefore you will change your forecasts?
对。
Right.
所以想想看？
So think about that?
对。
Right.
所以我们目前的想法是，最直接的风险是推迟到12月，然后我们得看数据怎么走。
So the way we're thinking about that for now is that the proximate risk is a delay to December, and then we'll have to see how the data play out.
好的。
Okay.
对吧？
Right?
然后我们再考虑他们明年会不会加息，或者根本不加。
And then we'll think about whether they go next year or they don't go at all.
但如果他们加息，我觉得75个基点完全合理，因为你需要的不只是象征性的加息，才能真正收紧金融条件。
But if they go, I think 75 is totally reasonable because you need to do more than just a symbolic hike to truly tighten financial conditions.
好的。
Okay.
阿迪蒂亚，谢谢你来。
Aditya, thanks for coming by.
我们真的很感激。
We do appreciate it.
谢谢。
Thank you.
阿迪蒂亚，美银的。
Aditya BofA.
蒂姆，你怎么看？
Tim, what do you think?
美联储应该采取行动吗？还是冒着失去对长期利率控制的风险？
Should the Fed do something or or risk losing control of the of the long end?
嗯，我觉得我很喜欢阿迪蒂亚反驳盖伊的方式。
Well, I think I I love how Aditya pushed back on Guy.
我是说，他态度很强硬，直接说了句‘够了’。
I mean, he he pretty stiff armed and said said enough.
而且我不是经济学家，但我认为劳动力市场的另一个动态是，自一月份以来，每月有23万人因移民而退出劳动力市场。
And and I'm not the economist, but I I think another dynamic with the with the the labor market is that 230,000 a month since January are falling out of the labor force because of immigration.
这给失业率带来了上行压力，或者说增加了压力，当然也压低了失业率。
And that's putting upward pressure on or or more strain and certainly pushing down the unemployment rate.
所以我仍然认为这是好事。
So I I continue to think that's good.
我认为全球PMI数据出乎意料地好。
I think global PMIs are surprising to the upside.
欧洲一直非常有韧性。
Europe has been very resilient.
我认为中国会带来惊喜。
I think China's gonna surprise.
我只想补充一点，全球GDP大约在2.8%到2.9%之间。
I just would add that we have global GDP around 2.8, 2.9%.
我很喜欢阿迪提亚说的，他承认了股市流动性处于历史高位。
And and what I loved about what Aditya said around is he he acknowledged liquidity conditions in the stock market at all time highs.
所以我觉得他们可能会降三次息。
So I think they could go three.
我不知道他们会不会真的这么做，但去年那三次降息应该被超越。
I I I don't know if they're going to, but those three from last year should be taken out.
对。
Yeah.
这挺有意思的。
It's interesting.
你知道，CME的Fed Watch追踪器显示九月份降息概率有40%。
You know, the CME Fed watch tracker is up 40% for September.
他们九月份不会降息的。
They're not going in September.
我是说，就像上周《华尔街日报》那篇关于特朗普的文章，我知道我一直在说这个，但对我来说这真的很明显。
I mean, like, that article in the Wall Street Journal last week about Trump, and I know I keep saying this, but it just seems really obvious to me.
特朗普一直在给沃什打电话。
Trump keeps calling warsh.
对吧？
Right?
那这意味着什么呢？
And, you know, what does that mean?
他在谈论经济，还有这个那个的。
He's talking about the economy, this and whatever.
我只是觉得，压力明显是让他不要在选举前采取任何行动。
I I just think the pressure on him is clearly not to do anything prior to the election.
我们说的是距离中期选举还有六周。
We're talking about six weeks to the midterms.
所以，你知道，你就等着吧。
So it just you know, you have a ball.
你觉得他们会加息75个基点吗？
You think they're gonna do, you know, 75 basis points?
你最好再等等。
You better wait a little bit.
我劝你别抱太大希望。
I wouldn't hold your breath.
我非常尊敬他。
I I respect him immensely.
我向嘉宾道别了，所以他不在。
I goodbye you goodbye to the guest, so he's not here.
但我要告诉你，那份就业报告之上的修正，我认为还有123。
But I will tell you the revisions on top of that job report, I think another 123.
情况不太好。
Were not good.
所以我们可以争论。
So we can we can argue.
我的意思是，我认为我们正朝着错误的方向发展。
I mean, I think we're trending the wrong way.
接下来，把温迪从菜单上撤下来，这家快餐连锁店被报道的私有化推动背后是什么，以及这可能说明餐饮业的健康状况。
Coming up, taking Wendy's off the menu, what's behind a reported take private push at the fast food chain and what it could be saying about the health of the restaurant trade.
《快钱》马上回来。
Fast Money is back right after this.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
温迪的股价飙升了近15%。
Shares of Wendy's surging almost 15%.
《金融时报》报道，纳尔逊·佩尔茨的Tryon公司正考虑将温迪私有化。
The Financial Times reporting Nelson Peltz's Tryon is looking to take Wendy's private.
温迪发布声明称，温迪公司将根据其信托责任，彻底审查Tryon提出的任何提案。
Wendy's issuing a statement saying the Wendy's company would thoroughly review any proposal submitted by Tryon consistent with its fiduciary duties.
我们正在迅速行动，在新任CEO鲍勃·赖特的领导下，我们有核心战略重点领域，以改善业绩并扭转业务。
We are moving with urgency and under Bob Wright's leadership as our new CEO, we have core strategic areas of focus to improve performance and turn around the business.
在快餐方面，麦当劳在股市上得到了一些“麦乐”般的喜爱。
And saying in fast food, McDonald's getting a little McLovin from the street.
Wolf Research指出图表上出现了一个看涨的转折点。
Wolf Research highlighting a bullish inflection point in the charts.
Wolf认为动能将推动麦当劳股价达到每股300美元。
Wolf sees momentum carrying McDonald's at $300 a share.
这比今天的收盘价上涨了9%。
That's a 9% gain from today's close.
这两家公司的盈利都不太好。
Both of them had not good earnings.
温蒂的情况可能更糟。
Wendy's probably worse.
它撤回了业绩指引。
It pulled its guidance.
它换了新的CEO和CFO。
It has a new CEO, CFO.
我的意思是，这可能并不完全出乎意料。
I mean, it may be not as entire surprise.
这简直是所有坏消息都堆在一起了，但我们现在
It is a complete kitchen sink, but here we
就在这里。
are.
从历史上看，尼尔森·佩尔茨一介入，好事就会发生，凯伦可以作证。
Historically, Nelson Peltz gets involved, Karen can speak to this, that good things happen.
我是说，可能得花点时间，但好事总会来。
I mean, might take a little while, but good things happen.
我不知道空头持仓是多少。
I don't know what the short interest is.
凯伦可以查一下，但我觉得这就是你接下来会看到的上涨，温迪。
Karen can look it up, but I think that's what you're about to see on the upside, Wendy.
所以如果你让我玩那个“你选哪个”的游戏，鉴于我们听到的消息，温迪和麦当劳，短期内，温迪是更好的选择。
So if you're asking me to play the would you rather game, given the news that we heard, Wendy's McDonald's, in the short term, it's Wendy's Mel's.
37%。
37%.
那可真不小。
That's big.
哇。
Wow.
那确实很大。
That is big.
那真的很大。
That is really big.
我不知道。
I don't know.
这有点意思。
It's sort of interesting.
我是说，纳尔逊·佩尔茨，他以前拥有阿比斯。
I mean, Nelson Peltz, we he used to own Arby's.
对。
Mhmm.
最后卖给了Rourke。
Ultimately, sold it to Rourke.
你会以为，Rourke，那个很多餐饮私募股权交易的公司，如果Wendy's要卖的话，他们会感兴趣。
You would think Rourke, which is the a lot of restaurant private equity deals would if if if Wendy's were for sale.
对。
Right.
当然，他们会说我们会考虑一下。
I get of course, they're gonna say we would look at it.
必须的。
You have to.
你必须得考虑。
You have to look at it.
是的。
Yeah.
任何报价，即使你不接受，也不能直接拒绝。
Any any bid that can it doesn't mean you reject it out of hand.
可以的。
You can.
所以我不太清楚。
So I don't know.
我目前不太明白他为什么现在要买，但考虑到它的走势，也许他觉得现在正是买入的时候。
I'm I'm not I'm not quite seeing at the moment why he would wanna buy it right now, but given the trajectory that it's had, and maybe he feels like that's when you have to buy things.
不过我不长期持有。
I'm not long, though.
不打算参与。
Not playing it.
蒂姆，说到麦当劳，那也是一个艰难的季度。
Tim, when you think of McDonald's here, that was a difficult quarter too.
听起来像是执行不力的情况。
It sounded like a a case of not executing well.
他们的加盟商没有提供超值菜单，所以人们没有享受到麦当劳以之著称的实惠。
Their franchisees weren't offering the value menu, so people weren't getting the value that McDonald's is known for.
对。
Yeah.
执行不力并不是我们经常从麦当劳听到的，而且那个狼的提示实际上是一个技术性的提示。
Not executing well is not what we hear from McDonald's most of the time, and and the the wolf note was really it's a technical note.
对吧？
Right?
所以这是一个在关键支撑位上的超卖状态。
So it's an oversold condition at a key support level.
而且在过去几次中，你实际上看到麦当劳有大约20%的涨幅，然后它没能守住那个涨幅。
And and over the last couple, you've actually seen about a 20% move in McDonald's, and then it's it's failed to hold that.
基本面情况是，我会把它带回图表来看。
The fundamental story is and I would bring it back to the chart.
大约在2.50美元左右，这会以大约18倍的市盈率交易，那会使其非常便宜。
Around $2.50, this would be trading at around 18 times, and that would make it wildly cheap.
而且我认为汉堡王的口号是，要两只手才能拿得住一个皇堡。
And and I think that the Burger King slogan was it takes two hands to handle a Whopper.
我会双手买进麦当劳，在2.50美元的价格，而且我觉得麦当劳比其他任何快餐连锁店都要好得多。
I would be buying McDonald's with two hands at $2.50, and I think McDonald's is far superior to any other fast food chain out there.
所以我觉得你可以开始在这里买一些，而且我认为你是麦当劳的投资者。
So I think you could start to buy some here, and I think you're an investor in McDonald's.
我宁愿不做交易者。
I'd rather not be a trader.
蒂姆，你刚才是不是编的？
Did make did Tim, did you just make that up?
是的。
It did.
两只手才能拿住一个皇堡。
Takes two cans to hold a while.
我以前从没听说过这个。
I've never heard of that before.
百分之百。
A 100%.
你看。
Look.
你看。
Look.
我有很多擅长的事，也有很多不擅长的。
There's a lot of things that I'm good at and a lot of things I'm not.
记性
Remembering
电视节目方面。
TV shows ever.
好吧，我跟你说，虽然我没亲眼见过，但我听说过Tim Ed的内裤，上面写着“巨无霸之家”。
Well, I will tell you, not that I ever saw this, but I've heard the Tim Ed underwear that said home of the whopper.
好的。
Alright.
好的。
Alright.
你知道吗？
You know what?
好吧。
Alright.
我是说，你看。
I mean, look.
我不想让其他人难堪，但我只想告诉你这个。
I don't wanna embarrass other people out there, but I I I'll just tell you this.
这种情况就是，我对七八十年代的电视广告语记得特别清楚，就像它们
This is a case of I remember seventies and eighties TV slogans like they
是，
are Have it
随心所欲。
your way.
是“随心所欲”吗？
Was it have it your way?
按你的方式来。
Have it your way.
对。
Yeah.
说起来有点过时了。
Saying it's getting old.
谢谢你，桑迪。
Thank you, Sandy.
我
I
我向你保证，如果你在家上网查一下，在互联网上，需要
I promise you if you at home go out and look up on the Internet, on the interweb, it takes
两只手才能处理很多。
two hands to handle lot.
好的。
Okay.
遗憾的是，在接下来的几周里，我们会反复听到这个消息。
Sadly, we're gonna hear this over and over again in the coming weeks.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，Pixel，完美。
Coming up, Pixel, perfect.
来看看谷歌今天发布的最新智能手机系列，在竞争中，更强大的AI就在你的口袋里。
A look at the newest smartphone lineup announced by Google today in the race, but more powerful AI in your pocket.
更多《快钱》节目，两分钟后回来。
More Fast Money in two.
欢迎回到《快钱》，Outfit的股价今天收盘略低于平盘线。
Welcome back to Fast Money Shares of Outfit, closing just below the flat line today.
即使谷歌母公司发布了新的Pixel 11系列，将其最具代理性的Gemini版本置于智能手机的核心，这正好赶在苹果预期中的Siri AI升级之前，而Siri AI也是由谷歌提供支持的。
Even after the Google parent unveiled its new Pixel 11 lineup, putting its most agentic version of Gemini at the center of its smartphones is coming just ahead of Apple's expected reboot of Siri AI, which is also powered by Google.
更多详情，Mackenzie Sicalis将加入我们，在这里
For more, Mackenzie Sicalis joins us here on
好了。
set.
Mac在这里。
Mac is here.
很高兴
Great to
见到你。
see You
你今天刚参加了那个活动。
were just at the event today.
是的，我花了一整天时间体验谷歌新发布的Pixel 11系列，包括他们最新的折叠屏手机，这个市场竞争越来越激烈了。
I was, and I have spent the entire day demoing Google's new Pixel 11 lineup, including that latest foldable from them, which is competing in an increasingly crowded market.
从设计上看，它确实很突出，保持了更修长的外形，而三星则转向更短更宽的设备，苹果今年预计也会采用类似的设计。
Now design wise, it stands out, sticking with a taller shape as Samsung moves toward a shorter, wider device, similar to what we're expecting from Apple this year.
现在有一些实质性的升级，包括更快的Tensor芯片和新的相机功能，但今天的重点是Gemini智能助手。
Now there are some meaningful upgrades including a faster Tensor chip and new camera features, but the headline today is Gemini Intelligence.
谷歌正在把Gemini变成一个贯穿整个手机的智能助手，它能理解你在做什么，跨应用整合信息，然后替你执行操作。
Google is turning Gemini into a gentic assistant across the phone, understanding what you are doing, connecting information across apps, and then taking actions for you.
而谷歌在苹果即将对Siri进行重大AI升级的几周前，就提出了他们的方案，当然，那个升级也是由Gemini驱动的。
And Google gets to make their case for this just weeks before Apple's big Siri AI relaunch, which of course is also powered by Gemini.
所以谷歌实际上是在用自己的技术跟自己竞争，用Gemini智能来让Pixel与众不同，同时也在为重建后的苹果智能提供模型支持。
So Google is effectively competing against its own technology using Gemini intelligence to differentiate the Pixel while also supplying the models behind the rebuilt Apple intelligence.
有没有想过，这会不会在某种程度上是Siri AI的预览？
Is there any thought that this is any in any way a preview of Siri AI?
百分之百是。
100.
而且我昨天跟谷歌设备部门的负责人Rick Osterlow聊过，他提到了一些真正只会在Pixel或安卓生态系统中出现的定制功能。
And I talked to Rick Osterlow, the Google devices chief yesterday, and he pointed to some of the bespoke features that would come truly, like, solely through the Pixel or the Android ecosystem.
这里有很多相似之处。
There are a lot of similarities here.
比如屏幕上的上下文，还有利用你内部已有的数据飞轮，你知道的。
The on screen context, a lot of the, you know, capitalizing on the data within the flywheel that you have in house.
而且我要说的是，就外形设计而言，折叠手机有趣的地方在于——我这儿就有一台。
And and I will say in terms of form factor, what's interesting about the fold the foldable phone, and I've got it got it here.
举起来看看。
Hold it up.
他们这是在押注不同的方向，而且这种手机在中国非常受欢迎。
Is that they're making this different bet, and that's hugely popular in China.
对吧？
Right?
华为有他们的三折叠手机。
You've got Huawei with their trifold.
三星也有，哦，好的。
You've got Sam oh, okay.
行吧。
Alright.
对。
Yeah.
有人让我一直举着它。
I'm I'm told to keep holding it up.
三星也推出了新款Ultra，和之前关于苹果外观的报道很相似。
You've got you've got Samsung out with, like, a new Ultra that's very similar to the reporting that we've seen around what Apple's is going to look like.
Mac，那里的氛围怎么样？
Mac, what was the vibe there?
你知道，今天有个头条说Gemini刚突破了十亿月活用户。
You know, there was a headline today that Gemini just passed, what, a billion monthly active users.
然后你想想，就像你刚才说的，它会出现在iPhone上。
And then when you think about, like you just said, that it's gonna be on iPhone.
那会是一款焕然一新的手机。
It's gonna be a revamped, you know, new phone.
从分发角度来看，Gemini似乎处于非常有利的位置。
It seems like from a distribution standpoint, like, Gemini is in a great spot.
确实，但同一天又有报道说谢尔盖·布林在说不行。
They are, but then it's on the same day that you've got reports that Sergey Brin is saying, no.
我们得达到
We need to be at
那个
the
AI模型竞赛的最前沿阵地
frontier of of the AI model fight.
对吧？
Right?
最近从Gemini和DeepMind实验室流失了不少人才，大家也在猜测这背后意味着什么。
And there's been this exodus of talent lately from the Gemini DeepMind lab lab, and there's been this question of what that means.
而谷歌方面的说法是，你并不需要拥有最顶尖的模型。
And what Google would say is that you don't have to have the most cutting edge model.
你不必在前沿领域跟云服务和OpenAI硬碰硬，也能赢得消费者市场。
You don't have to compete with Cloud and OpenAI at the frontier to win with the consumer.
你可以靠这个做到，也就是Gemini Nano。
You can do that with I mean, this is Gemini Nano.
这是一个能在设备上运行的模型。
This is a model that's able to run on device.
你不需要去云端，这非常有吸引力。
You don't have to go to the cloud, which is a very compelling case.
你还有Flash，它在谷歌云的企业客户中非常受欢迎，因为它的token价格比Anthropic便宜很多。
You've got Flash, which is very compelling among Google Cloud enterprise customers that can run it for, like, undercut on the token prices that you're paying Anthropic.
对。
Mhmm.
马特，很高兴见到你。
Matt, great to see you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
再见，梅尔。
See you, Mel.
麦肯齐·西加洛斯。
McKenzie Seagalos.
接下来是最后的交易。
Up next, Final Trades.
我只想说，蒂姆说得对。
I just wanted to say that Tim was right.
这确实是个口号。
It is really a slogan.
要两只手才能拿得住一个巨无霸。
It takes two hands to handle a whopper.
凯伦，最后的交易时间到了。
Karen, final trade time.
是的。
Yes.
谷歌。
Google.
丹。
Dan.
对。
Yes.
思科，按这个交易来。
Cisco, by the deal.
我常说，我们这里就像一家人。
As I've said many times, we are family here.
我们的一位家人要离开，去迎接一个绝佳的机会。
One of our family members is leaving for an incredible opportunity.
Natalie Zhang，我们非常喜欢她。
Natalie Zhang, who we adore.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
我们会非常想念她，但也为她感到高兴。
And we will miss her dearly, but we're very happy for her.
所以Natalie，我们所有人祝你一切顺利，好运。
So Natalie, from all of us, best wishes and good luck.
星巴克，Melms。
Starbucks, Melms.
好的。
Alright.
感谢收看Fast Money。
Thank you for watching Fast Money.
Natalie，感谢你一直以来在团队中的辛勤付出。
Natalie, thanks for all your hard work on our team all this time.
Madden八，Jim Kramer现在开始。
Madden eight, Jim Kramer starts right now.
Fast Money参与者的所有观点仅代表他们个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能此前已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体发布过。
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium.
你不应将本播客中表达的任何观点视为对特定投资或特定策略的具体诱导，而应仅将其视为一种观点表达。
You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of an opinion.
这些观点基于Fast Money参与者认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性或准确性，也不应依赖这些观点。
Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
要查看完整的Fast Money免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer。
To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事情？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是，
One of
想想你老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有很多不同的形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
这真的归结为相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，要想成就大事，就得有远大的想法。
Life is short, you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC的“变革者”和“权力玩家”节目。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新集，无论你在哪里收听播客。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。