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7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest，带来关于体育与娱乐未来走向的前瞻洞察与创新构想。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
立即前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
现场直播来自纽约时代广场核心地带的纳斯达克交易所。
Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square.
这里是快钱频道。
This is fast money.
今晚有哪些重磅内容，我们马上为您揭晓。
Here's what's on tap tonight.
倒计时即将开始，这将是迄今为止规模最大的外国公司在美上市。
Counting down to what is expected to be the biggest ever US listing of a foreign company.
明天SK海力士开始交易，你会看到什么？这对整个半导体行业又意味着什么？
What to expect when SK Hynix starts trading tomorrow, and what it could mean for the broader semi trade.
日元持续走弱，目前已跌至近四十年来的最低水平，而我们的某位交易员指出，这一走势背后还隐藏着更深层的忧虑。
And the yen and retreat, the Japanese currency near its lowest levels in four decades, while one of our traders is flagging a deeper concern amid the move.
另外，百事公司警告原材料成本上升，住宅建筑商获得急需的提振，星巴克加大了对人工智能的投入——这家咖啡巨头正在改变其运营方式，而一些公司可能因此被甩在身后。
Plus Pepsi's warning on input costs, homebuilders get a much needed bid, and Starbucks ups its bet on AI, how the coffee maker is changing the way it does business, and the companies that could get left in the dust as a result.
我是梅丽莎·李，现在从纳斯达克演播室为您现场直播。
I'm Melissa Lee, coming to you live from the studio via the Nasdaq.
今晚的演播室嘉宾有：考特尼·加西亚、凯伦·芬内曼、丹·纳撒恩和盖伊·阿达米。
On the desk tonight, Courtney Garcia, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami.
我们先来看来自韩国的SK海力士可能成为里程碑式的上市事件的最新进展。
We start off with the latest details on what could be a landmark listing from South Korea's SK Hynix.
这家芯片制造商的股票预计定价为149美元。
Stock in the chip manufacturer expected to price at $149.
在此次发行前，韩国KOSPI市场的股价已承压，较六月下旬高点下跌超过25%。
KOSPI traded shares have been under pressure ahead of the offering, down more than 25% from the late June high.
克里斯蒂娜·帕克斯和Evolus现在加入我们，谈谈明天在纳斯达克上市时可能会出现的情况。
Christina Parks and Evolus joins us now on what to expect when it starts trading here at the Nasdaq tomorrow.
就在这里。
Right here.
就在这儿。
Right here.
这将是自上个月SpaceX创下纪录的IPO以来规模最大的一次股票发售。
And it's gonna be the biggest share sale since SpaceX's record IPO last month.
这次发行的认购倍数超过了七倍。
The offering is more than seven times oversubscribed.
作为参考，SpaceX的认购倍数在三到四倍之间。
For context, SpaceX was anywhere between three and four times.
公司正在出售近1.78亿份美国存托凭证。
The company is selling nearly a 178,000,000 ADRs, so American depository receipts.
每一份美国存托凭证对应十分之一的韩国普通股，市场预计这些美国股票的交易价格将高于首尔本地的同款股票。
Each one of those US shares result in a tenth of a common share in South Korea, and they're expecting The US shares to trade at a premium to the same stock stock in Seoul.
巴克莱银行预测溢价幅度可能在10%到15%之间。
Barclays bets anywhere between 1015% higher.
但既然是一家公司，为什么还要多花钱呢？
But why pay more for the exact same company?
稀缺性。
Scarcity.
SK海力士是HBM（高带宽内存）领域最纯粹的投资标的，而HBM正是英伟达AI芯片的核心组件。
SK Hynix is the purest bet on HBM, the high bandwidth memory powering NVIDIA's AI chips.
根据他们的文件显示，SK海力士在这一市场占据了大约56%的份额。
SK controls roughly 56% of that market according to their filing.
对于那些难以直接购买韩国股票的美国投资者来说，这算是首次真正便捷的入场机会。
For US investors who couldn't easily buy Korean stocks, this is the first clean way in.
通常情况下，对冲基金都会通过套利来消除这种价差。
Normally, hedge funds would arbitrage that premium way.
买入便宜的韩国本地股票，同时做空美国的存托凭证，等价格趋同后再平仓，但这次可能没那么简单。
Buy the cheap Korean shares, short the US ones, wait for the prices to converge, but it may not be so simple this time.
一位公司发言人告诉我，把美国的存托凭证转换成韩国本地股票，‘可以自由操作’。
A company spokesperson tells me converting ADRs, so The US ones, into Korean shares, quote, can be executed freely.
但反过来操作——从韩国股票转成存托凭证——则需要走一套独立的申报流程，耗时又繁琐，会带来不少摩擦。正因如此，台积电的存托凭证几十年来一直维持着两位数的溢价。
But going the other way requires, quote, a separate reporting procedure, time, and paperwork, which would create friction, and that kept the TSMC's ADR at a double digit premium for decades.
所以如果这个溢价持续存在，就意味着美国投资者愿意为同样的AI内存敞口支付比韩国投资者更高的价格。
So if that premium holds, it means US investors are willing to pay more than their Korean counterparts for the same AI memory exposure.
明天上午十点，东部时间，我在CNBC专访SK集团董事长，这家大型企业集团的掌舵人。
First on CNBC with the chairman of SK Group, the conglomerate, tomorrow at 10AM eastern.
这应该会非常精彩。
That should be fascinating.
我很好奇，他们和英伟达的关系是不是也更紧密。
I'm wonder they also have a much closer relationship to NVIDIA.
确实如此。
They're right.
他们是英伟达最大的内存供应商。
NVIDIA's number one supplier for memory.
至于差异，很多人肯定会拿它和美光来做对比。
So, I mean, in terms of the the differences, a lot of people are gonna be comparing and contrasting it versus a Micron, of course.
但这次的规模更大。
But this is bigger.
对吧？
Right?
现在价格更低，而且和英伟达的关系更紧密。
It's cheaper right now, and it has a closer relationship with NVIDIA.
我觉得是这样。
Is, I think
我上次查的时候是5.8倍，而美光今天快到7倍了。
it was 5.8 times the last I checked, and, Micron is close to seven today.
所以你是说，这个估值还会继续上升，还是美光会被压下来？
So you can say that will the valuation increase or will Micron get compressed?
没错。
Yes.
它是英伟达最主要的内存供应商，关系非常稳固。
It is the primary supplier to NVIDIA, has that strong relationship.
詹森·黄刚在韩国说过，这种合作关系短期内不会改变。
Jensen Huang was just, in Korea and said that that relationship's not changing anytime soon.
但问题是，市场上会不会有新的资金流入呢？
The question is, though, will is there gonna be net new money coming to the market?
因为他们打算筹集超过两千八百亿美元。
Because they're looking to raise over, like, $28,000,000,000.
这些是全新的资金吗？
So is that brand new cash?
这笔钱会从哪儿来？
Where is that cash coming from?
还是说会来自美光，或者其他芯片公司，甚至整个市场的资金？
Or is it gonna come from a source like Micron or a source like the other chips or the rest of the market for that matter?
没错。
Right.
克里斯蒂娜，谢谢。
Christina, thank you.
克里斯蒂娜·帕克斯，内维尔阿斯。
Christina Parks, Nevilleas.
今天高盛的股价，按未来收益算应该是九倍左右。
On Goldman Sachs Lane today, it should be traded at nine times forward.
没错。
Right.
你知道吗？
And you know what?
那我们就选高盛吧。
I'm gonna so we'd go with Goldman Sachs.
顺便说一句，克里斯蒂娜做得太棒了，也祝贺纳斯达克。
By the way, great job by Christina, and congratulations to the Nasdaq.
咱们走着瞧吧。
So we'll see.
我的意思是，这笔新增投资到底会带来什么影响？谁受益，谁受损？
I mean, what in terms of what does it create here, who wins and who loses in terms of the incremental investment dollar.
但我也不确定能不能在这上面做文章。
And I'm not certain you can play that game.
我觉得这事儿早就被琢磨透了。
I mean, think that's probably been gamed out for a while.
这毫无疑问对整个领域是件好事。
I think it's an incremental positive for the space without question.
现在形式更多样了，但我觉得以后没必要非得挑出输赢来。
You have more diversity now in the form of this, but I don't think you're gonna have to sort of pick winners and losers going forward.
我觉得这个时间点其实比三周前出来要好得多。
I think this timing is actually way better than had it come three weeks ago.
对吧？
Right?
我们已经看到过几例了。
We saw we've seen a few.
最近的一例是Cerberus。
Most recently, Cerberus
是的。
Mhmm.
我老是说成Cerberus。
Which I always Cerberus.
Cerberus。
Cerberus.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Right.
我老是把顺序搞反。
Which I always get backwards.
记得那个一度疯狂飙升。
Remember that just went berserk.
它从1.85美元涨到2.20美元，接着冲到2.80美元，但很快我就觉得，现在这种降温反而对上市更有利。
It went $1.85, and then it opened at $2.20, it went to $2.80, and then very shortly it was I actually think this is better for listing that some of it has cooled.
还是非常火热，但跟三周前比，确实冷静了不少。
It's still pretty white hot, but it's definitely cool from where it was three weeks ago.
是的。
Yeah.
而且这还是在美光和三星发布财报之后，所以呢。
It's also after Micron reported, after Samsung reported, so it's
白帽基金真的很有趣。
White Hat is really interesting.
你知道吗，认购倍数达到了七到九倍。
You know, seven, eight, nine times oversubscribed.
我觉得你该知道，该有的你都有了。
I'm like, you know, like, you got all you need.
你明白我的意思吧。
You know what I mean?
去买那个DRAMETF吧，或者干脆重仓美光，它一年内已经涨了十倍。
Go buy that DRAM ETF or, you know, get loaded up on Micron, which is up a thousand percent in a year or so.
我回想起2014年，也许情况类似，也许不是，当时阿里巴巴在美国上市，定价就是那样。
I I go back to 2014, and and maybe this is similar, maybe it's not, when Alibaba listed here in The US, and that was priced.
那可是个大事件。
That was a big deal.
估值两千五百亿美元，你算算这数字意味着什么？
It was $25,000,000,000, and just think that's like what what's the math here?
十二年前的事了。
Twelve years ago, that sort of thing.
说实话，那真不是小事。
I mean, it was a really big deal.
我觉得这可能是有史以来最大的交易之一。
I think it was one of the biggest deals ever.
那股票在接下来的一两个月里就翻了一倍。
And, you know, that stock doubled in the next month or two.
我记得发行价大概是68美元。
I think it was priced at, like, $68.
两个月内涨到120美元，但接下来的一年左右又跌回了一半。
Hit $1.20 in two months, and then it got cut in half, you know, over the next year or so.
所以我觉得，叙事会变，稀缺性也会跟着变。
And so I I guess narratives change, scarcity, you know, changes.
我觉得这些相对于本地市场的溢价，很多投资者都会关注，但情况也会比较复杂。
I I think that some of these premiums relative to the local are things that a lot of investors are gonna keep track of, but it's also gonna be a bit complicated.
在我看来，等六个月后再回头看，这种热潮在记忆里应该已经退烧了。
So to me, I think by the time we're thinking about this in six months from now, I think the fever will have been broken in the memory names.
所以我觉得这事儿就像赶晚集一样。
And so I I think this is like a Johnny come lately sort of thing.
你觉得在接下来的几个月里，靠这个能赚点钱吗？
Might you be able to make some money in this thing over the next, you know, few months or so?
当然可以。
Sure.
如果这个叙事继续发酵，确实有可能赚钱，但我并不觉得多加几个参与方式，就能轻松看到股价大涨。
Especially if this narrative continues to play out, but I don't think more ways to play this is actually a layup that we're gonna see good price performance in this name.
对。
Yeah.
不过，你看到这种超额认购，恰恰说明市场对人工智能基础设施的需求依然非常强劲。
I think the fact that you're seeing this oversubscribed, though, really just shows that there is still significant demand towards the AI infrastructure play.
之前受益于人工智能的公司大家已经看得很清楚了，现在人人都在找下一个机会，而这种纯粹的内存芯片就是大家关注的目标之一。
Like, you you've already had the obvious beneficiaries of AI and now everybody's looking to the next source, and this is one of those kind of pure play memory chips that people are gonna look to.
所以，关键不在于这是否是个好机会，而是需求确实还很旺盛。
So I think the bigger thing of whether this is a good opportunity or not means the demand is absolutely still there.
人们都在问，这场行情是不是已经结束了？
People are asking, is this trade over or not?
我觉得还没完。
I don't think so.
看到这样的需求，怎么可能说结束就结束呢？
Not when you see this kind of demand.
SpaceX当初就是这样的情况。
You saw this with SpaceX.
现在你又看到了同样的景象。
You're seeing this now.
现在愿意投进来的钱远多于实际能投进去的，这意味着大家现在手头都有钱可以出手。
There's a lot more money willing to go in here than is actually gonna be capable to go in, and that means people have the dollars to put down right now.
我的意思是，一旦资金流入半导体行业，
I mean, when money goes into the semi trade,
就会涌向内存股。
it goes into the memory stocks.
这种现象我们已经见过太多次了。
That's what we have seen time and time again.
美光股价回调时，很多人觉得这是个买入的好机会。
The pullback in Micron, that was an opportunity in some view people's view to buy the stock.
现在，我们又看到了同样的情况。
And here we are once again.
那今天这一轮行情，我们看到了什么？
I mean, what do we see in today's session?
SMH指数跑赢了大盘，除了英伟达。
The SMH outperformed the broader markets, except for NVIDIA.
没错。
Right.
除了英伟达。
Except for NVIDIA.
昨晚我们还专门聊过英伟达的估值问题。
And we had a whole valuation conversation about NVIDIA last night.
当时我们说它便宜，但便宜到底是好是坏，还真不好说。
And, you know, we said it's cheap, and that's either a good thing or a bad thing.
不过这个我们回头再细说。
But we'll we'll sort of come back to that.
你提到美光股价回调是个买入机会，对吧？
In terms of this, you mentioned the pullback in Micron being a buying opportunity.
你还记得吧？大概三月份他们公布财报时，股价一路暴跌。
If you recall, it was clearly, I think back in March when they reported earnings, the stock cascaded lower.
记得当时跌了将近百分之四十，就在短短几周内，又反弹回来了。
Think it was down some 40%, and that was within the course of a couple weeks, the bounce.
这次的情况不太一样。
This is something different going on.
我的意思是，从五月下旬开始，美光的股价每天都在上下波动，差不多有八到十次了。
I mean, there have been eight to 10 moves seemingly on a daily basis, both up and down in Micron, I want to say since late May.
我不确定这代表什么，但历史上，如果这种日内剧烈波动持续很久，通常意味着见底，而这次可能恰恰是见顶。
I don't know what that signifies, but historically when you see intraday volatility like that over a prolonged period of time, it signifies a bottom and in this case, potentially a top.
所以英伟达的财报出来后，真的值得期待。
So NVIDIA, it'll be really interesting to see earnings.
假设英伟达的增长放缓了。
Let's say NVIDIA slows.
对吧？
Right?
或者业绩一出来，增速明显下滑，市场就慌了。
Or comes in nuts the rate of change slows, and people get freaked out by that.
你觉得那时候，像美光这样的公司会不会受到更大的冲击？
Do you think then, I would think, that the m u's of the world would have a outsized reaction to that?
对吧？
Right?
如果这真是
If this is the
所有东西的核心所在，而且所有东西都远远高于这个水平。
center of where everything is and everything is, you know, exponentially above that.
对吧？
Right?
如果这放缓了，那些东西怎么可能不放缓得更厉害？
If that slows, how could those not slow more?
我是说股价。
The stock rather.
你觉得股价怎么可能不比英伟达表现得更差？
How could the stock not underperform form more than NVIDIA?
你觉得英伟达的增长率会以同样的速度放缓吗？
Do you think that the rate of growth for NVIDIA would slow, this at the same rate potentially?
你认为这种增长放缓的趋势也会体现在美光身上吗？我们只是拿美光当个例子，还是说其他领域对内存的需求也很强，不只来自英伟达？
Would you project that slowing rate of growth onto an MU and or for instance, we're just using MU as an example, or is there demand for in other places for that memory and not just directly from NVIDIA?
不只是这样。
Not just yes.
但英伟达是个风向标。
But NVIDIA is sort of the bellwether.
它就是一个代表。
It's the proxy.
还记得以前思科几乎是互联网基础设施的晴雨表吗？
Remember when Cisco used to be the absolute proxy for whatever the, you know, Internet infrastructure Mhmm.
没错。
Was.
我觉得在人工智能领域，现在也是同样的情况。
I think this is the same thing in the AI space.
对。
Mhmm.
你同意吗？
Would you agree?
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Sure.
我
I
我的意思是，我完全同意。
mean, I I I I I'm resounding.
对。
Yes.
但好吧。
But okay.
我觉得我关注的是这里的价格。
I guess what I focus on is price right here.
这跟估值没关系。
It's not about valuation.
昨晚我们聊了英伟达。
Last night, we talked about NVIDIA.
英伟达曾经被炒到那么高的倍数，现在却像周期股一样交易了。
NVIDIA had grown into that multiple, and now it trades like a cyclical stock.
对吧？
Right?
这种现象会在很多其他地方看到。
And we're gonna see that in a whole host of other places.
已经在发生了。
It's happening.
这些内存股也会这样。
It's gonna happen to these memory names.
CPU厂商也逃不掉。
It's gonna happen to the CPU guys.
这种压力还会波及到整个技术栈的其他部分，最近云服务商表现疲软，我们已经能看到苗头了。
It's gonna happen to, you know, a whole other parts of the stack, and we're already starting to see that pressure if you think about the weakness in the hyperscalers just of late.
我不太相信现在需求真的远远超过了供应。
I'm just not convinced that there's so much, you know, that demand is way outstripping supply right now.
昨晚我们其实也聊过这个话题。
And I think we talked about this again last night.
短短时间内，从疯狂扩产转向严格控产，这说明当前这类算力的预算可能根本撑不起我们看到的这些估值。
You know, this whole notion of token maxing going to token minimizing in such a short period of time tells you that the budgets for this sort of compute right now may not be there to justify, okay, some of these valuations we're seeing.
所以当你想到像SK海力士这样的公司，认购倍数高达九倍的时候。
And so when you think of an issue like this with SK Hynix, nine times oversubscribed.
如果你是这些公司的客户，你到底下了多少次订单？
If you're a customer of these companies, how many times are you putting an order in?
你明白我的意思吧？
You know what mean?
当你想想自己真正需要的算力，和市场预期之间的差距时
When you think about what you need relative to what the world is expecting for the sort of compute
这些订单背后都有合同约束。
by contracts behind these orders.
明白了。
Okay.
行。
Fine.
早在二十七年前就签过相关合同了。
There was contracts with the, you know, going back twenty seven years ago.
那时候签了一大堆光纤和其他设备的合同，但后来都作废了，因为有些公司迟早会退出市场，所以像RPO、长期协议这些事，现在说起来都没问题。
There was contract for all this fiber and all this sort of stuff, and they all went away because some of these companies are gonna go away, and that's why some of these issue you know, the RPOs and this, that, whatever, these long term LTAs and everything like that, it's fine.
现在这些说法听着挺吸引人，但等事情过去之后，情况就不一样了。
That's great narratives right now, but it's gonna be on the other side of this thing.
如果大型云服务商最终出现产能过剩，那影响会一路传导到整个产业链。
If the hyperscalers don't get I mean, if they get to a point where there's just excess capacity, then that goes down the whole stack.
有意思的是，你一直都在提出这些观点。
Well, I think it's interesting that you have that you raised these points, and you've been raising these points.
这已经不是第一次了，很明显。
This is not the first time, obviously.
可以说，我每天晚上都在这儿。
Can say, I'm here every night.
玩得挺开心。
Have a ball.
我们现在到了一个节点，超大规模云厂商的估值让大家都开始重新审视它们了。
We are at a point now where the valuation of the hyperscalers are getting people to say, we are now taking a look at the hyperscalers.
它们现在太便宜了，我们应该把资金调过去。
They are too cheap, and we should rotate into them.
所以，如果你说这趟列车已经来了，大家突然觉得现在该买超大规模云厂商的股票了，因为它们的估值很便宜，那这就有点糟糕了。
And so when you marry if if you're saying that this train is coming and people are all of sudden saying, oh, now it's time to get into hyperscalers because their valuations are cheap, that's that's sort of a bad combination.
时机不对。
It's bad timing.
对。
Yeah.
但话说回来，关于超大规模云服务商的资本支出规模，这个问题依然存在。
But I mean, think the question still remains with the hyperscalers and the amount of spending that's going into the CapEx.
我觉得这仍然是一个亟待解答的疑问。
I mean, I think that is still an active question.
等财报季一到，投资者肯定急着想看到明确的答案。
I think once earning season comes here, I think investors are really gonna wanna see answers there.
而且现在的问题不只是该不该进场投资超大规模云服务商，还是转向其他科技股。
And I think the fact that you are seeing, it's not just do we go into hyperscalers or do we go into other technology?
其他市场整体表现都很强劲。
The rest of the markets are really performing.
今天小盘股其实撑起了整个市场。
You saw small caps are actually really holding up the market today.
今年它们表现一直很好，而眼下这种涨势蔓延到全市场，比纠结于要不要进出超大规模云服务商，要积极得多。
They've been doing really well this year and I think the fact that you're seeing this broaden out to the whole markets is a much more positive sign than do we go in or back out of the hypers hyperscalers.
凯伦提到的这一点，我之前真没想清楚，因为她想到了，而她的水平远在我之上。
Karen's point, I hadn't thought about that clearly because Karen thought of it and she's way above That's my my pay point.
思科的关联性很有道理，这可不是随便估算一下就能了事的。
The Cisco correlation makes a lot of sense, and it's not just going to be sort of the back of the envelope math.
如果你看到视频业务出现放缓，我觉得八月底的报告会体现出来，我们还有时间，但人们迟早会开始问这些问题。
If you see a slowdown in video, which I think reports at the end of August, we have some time, people are gonna self first ask questions later.
我并不是说这一定会发生。
And I'm not suggesting it's gonna happen.
但迟早会发生的。
It's gonna happen at some point.
会不会是本季度还不确定，但整个逻辑其实都建立在一个前提上——就是那个抽木条的游戏叫什么来着？
Whether it's this quarter or not remains to be seen, but the whole thing is sort of predicated to that what is that game where you pull the logs out?
是叠叠乐吧？
Jenga or something?
对。
Yeah.
然后你像傻子一样大喊‘叠叠乐’。
And then you yell like Jenga, like a jerk.
你是喊出来还是
Do you yell that or
我只是
just I
我不喊
I don't yell
那样做。
do that.
但你明白我的意思吧。
But you understand what I'm saying.
是的。
Yeah.
明白了。
Got it.
我们的下一位嘉宾警告说，人工智能回报大幅放缓可能会将经济推入衰退。
Our next guest warns that a significant slowdown in the payoff of AI could tip the economy into recession.
阿波罗的首席经济学家兼合伙人托尔斯滕·肖洛克加入了我们，带来更多信息。
Apollo chief economist and partner, Torsten Schlock, joins us with more.
托尔斯滕，很高兴你今天能来。
Thorsten, great to have you with us.
你其实是在问，如果这种回报迟迟无法实现，或者根本不会到来，会怎么样？
So you're basically asking the question, what if it takes longer for this payoff to actually materialize, or what if it doesn't happen?
没错。
Yep.
这种可能性有多大？
What are the odds?
你怎么评估这里面的风险和收益？
How do you how do you assess the risk and the reward here?
首先，我们都同意，人工智能正在对各个领域产生巨大影响，它无疑是一项革命性技术。
Well, let's first agree that AI is making a huge difference on all So our it will be a revolutionary technology.
而且它的影响还在持续扩大。
It continues to have a dramatic impact.
但从股市的角度来看，关键问题是任何股价本质上都是未来现金流的净现值。
But the key issue from a stock market perspective, any stock price is essentially the net present value of the future cash flows.
所以，未来现金流的折现净现值突然变得至关重要。
So the discounted net present value of future cash flows then suddenly becomes important.
那些未来流入的现金流，其增长斜率到底是怎样的？
What is the slope of those cash flows that are coming in the future?
现在的问题是，当前市场定价所依据的假设是什么？也就是这些大型云服务商在投入巨资后，收入会以多快的速度增长？
And the question now, of course, is what are the assumptions in market pricing today about how quickly revenues will come to the hyperscalers on the back of the investments that they have made?
其实很简单，现在大家都在大量投资，而市场却在定价时认为，收入增长要么太慢，要么太快，或者正好合适。
It's really this simple observation that a lot of investments are being made and our market is now pricing in that revenues are coming too slowly, too quickly at the right pace.
这正是当前市场中讨论的核心议题——收入增长是否足够快。
This is essentially a discussion that we're having in markets and the debate, namely whether revenues come quick enough.
对。
Yeah.
另一个争论点来自《大空头》的迈克尔·伯里，他提到一个类似叠叠乐的比喻。
So another debate in in Michael Burry of Big Short fame, there's a little Jenga thing in there.
你还记得那部电影吗？
You remember that movie there?
那个场景特别精彩。
It was a great scene.
然后所有人都是一脸震惊。
And then everyone's like this.
我看过那部电影。
I saw that movie.
我记得那个叠积木的场景。
I remember Jenga.
对。
Yeah.
想想看。
Remember.
整个这个观点，他之前写过，就是我们昨晚聊的那个话题——这些高端显卡的折旧问题，对吧？
This whole notion and he was writing about this, this whole notion that you and we were talking about it last night, this the depreciation of these high end GPUs, right?
而且还有一些特定的会计处理方式。
And there's certain marks.
过去一年里，我们看到像亚马逊这样的公司延长了折旧周期，而像Meta这样的公司则相反，把折旧期收得更紧了。
And, you know, over the last year, we've seen, you know, some companies like Amazon stretch out that depreciation, and we've seen Meta, for instance, kinda narrow that sort of thing.
所以到最后，这些会计调整会显得有点奇怪，但它们要么掩盖了我们看到的实际表现，要么反过来放大了某些性能数据，你懂我的意思吧。
So we're gonna get to a point where the marks are kinda funky, but they are masking some of this performance that we're seeing or they're augmenting, you know what mean, some of the performance.
你觉得这种事总该有个了断了吧？
At some point, don't you think the rubber has to hit the road on this sort of thing?
最终还得看那些超大规模云服务商怎么处理。
And it's gonna be by the hyperscalers.
也许这就是为什么它们的股价表现不佳——因为到了2026年下半年，我们才能更清楚地看到这些GPU折旧的真实情况。
And maybe that's why they trade so poorly because maybe 2026 of the back half is gonna be the period in which we get more clarity on the marks of these GPUs.
是的。
Yeah.
当然，反对的观点是，对算力的需求几乎是无限的。
The counter argument, of course, is that the demand for compute is basically unlimited.
咱们得承认，未来消费者、家庭，还有企业，对算力的需求会以各种各样的方式爆发出来。
Let's agree that there'll be so many different ways that compute will be needed for consumers, for households and broadly speaking of course for companies also.
既然这样，问题就变成了：超大规模云服务商能定出什么价格，又能从这些算力中赚到多少收入。
So if that's the case, the question becomes what is the price that the hyperscalers can get and what is the revenue they can from that compute.
这时候讨论就特别关键了，尤其是中国大模型的崛起，还有你刚才提到的令牌上限问题。
And that's where the conversation becomes so important, particularly with the Chinese models coming in, also the token maxing that you just talked about.
这一切都变得至关重要，因为它又把我们拉回到这个话题：如果收入来得比预期快得多，会怎么样？
All this becomes incredibly important because it again brings back this discussion around, well, what if the revenues arrive much faster?
那这样的话，超大规模云服务商其实现在就挺便宜的。
Well, then the hyperscalers are actually cheap.
但如果收入来得慢，AI落地也慢，那收入自然就会弱得多。
Well, if the revenues arrive much slower and the implementation of AI is going to be slower, well, then the revenues of course are going to be a lot weaker.
所以，我们真正该讨论的是：当前市场上到底是什么定价？这个定价背后隐含了市场怎样的普遍预期？目前的共识是，未来三四年里，超大规模云服务商的收入和自由现金流能翻一倍。
So that's why the implicit discussion we should be having is, well, what is the pricing that is in the market today and what does that assume in terms of consensus expectations and consensus expectations at the moment are assuming that we basically will have a doubling of the revenue and ultimately of the free cash flow for the hyperscalers in a matter of three, four years.
这当然是一种非常非常乐观的假设，它假定了需求会极其旺盛，也假设了云服务商能为这些需求定出极高的价格。
So that's of course a very, very optimistic assumption around how much demand there will be and ultimately what price the hyperscale will be able to charge for that demand.
谢谢你能亲自到场。
So thanks for being here in person.
很高兴你来到演播台。
Nice to have you here on the desk.
所以，从需求的另一面来看，我认为需求是无限的，但供应端的反应呢？你怎么看这对需求曲线和价格曲线的影响？
The so the other side of this demand, which I believe insatiable is the right quantity of demand, but the supply side response, how do you think about that and what that does to that demand curve and price to that price curve?
这一点非常关键，因为风险在于，虽然需求几乎是无限的，但供应的释放可能会慢得多。
This is very important because the risk, of course, is to this the demand is essentially unlimited is that namely that supply may be a lot slower in rolling out.
这样一来，价格自然就不会跌到零了。
So that of course could imply that the price would ultimately not go down to zero.
相反，由于有太多人需要算力，竞争会非常激烈。
Instead, there would be a lot of competition because there's so many people who need that compute.
你说得对，如果需求确实无限，而供应却受限，因为部署全部产能会遇到一些挑战，需要时间，那算力的价格可能就不会大幅下降，甚至在某些阶段还会上涨。
So you're right, maybe we have very unlimited demand and we have much more limited supply because there's going to be some challenges and it's going to take some time to roll out all the capacity, then that would ultimately indeed be a situation where the price of compute would not necessarily be going down that much and it might even begin in episodes to go higher.
我喜欢你的热情。
I dig your energy.
我很欣赏你的工作。
I dig your work.
这正好能接上我们刚才的讨论。
And this sort of gonna dovetail into this conversation.
几天前，能源冲击已经过去了。
Few days ago, the energy shock is over.
利率冲击还没结束。
The rate shock is not over.
没错。
Exactly.
如果利率冲击还没结束，我们现在的局面会怎样？
What happens if the rate shock isn't over in this we're having?
真正重要的是，长期以来，利率的波动基本跟油价挂钩。
Well, what's really, really important is that for a long time, rates are basically moving up and down with oil prices.
所以每当油价上涨，因为供应紧缩，利率自然也会跟着上升。
So whenever oil prices went up because the straight up was closed, well then of course rates also went up.
但几周前发生了一件非常重要的事：利率持续维持在高位，而油价却大幅下跌。
But a few weeks ago, something very, very important happened, meaning that rates kept on hanging out at higher levels and oil prices really came down a lot.
这正好印证了你的观点。
So it's exactly to your point.
现在的风险在于，利率将在高位维持更长时间。
The risks now is that interest rates will be higher for longer.
我们看到利率市场已经发生转变，不再紧盯整体通胀，而是转向关注核心通胀。
And this shift that we've seen in rates markets away from focusing on headline inflation to instead now focusing on core inflation.
所以今天凯文·沃尔什宣布成立特别工作组时，这件事就显得尤为重要——因为美联储现在必须面对一个现实：市场对整体通胀的关注在减弱，而对核心通胀的关注在增强。这正像你所说的，导致利率将在更长时间内保持高位，进而让无论是短期还是长期投资者的融资成本都居高不下。
That's why on the day today when Kevin Walsh announced his task force heads, well, this is of course very important because the Fed now needs to deal with that there is less focus on headline inflation, and now there's much more focus on core inflation, which raises this risk exactly to your point, That rates will be higher for longer, and therefore, the cost of financing will also be higher for longer for anyone who is investing both short term and long term.
那你认为美联储接下来最可能采取什么行动？
So how do you think about what the Fed would do most likely next?
我是说，经济疲软之下，降息的可能性会不会比加息更大？
I mean, do you think that a cut is more likely than a hike because of economic weakness?
目前市场预期美联储会加息两次。
So as we speak, markets are pricing that the Fed will hike twice.
没错。
Right.
一次在九月，一次在明年三月。
Once in September and once in March next year.
这明显反映出市场关注点的转变——不再那么看重整体通胀的回落，而是开始担忧核心通胀会维持在较高水平。
I mean, that's a very, very strong statement from the market saying that there is a shift in attention away from headline inflation maybe coming down, but now we're beginning to worry about core inflation hanging out at higher levels.
对市场来说，这意味着所有高度依赖利率的资产，尤其是科技、软件以及那些现金流周期很长的领域，现在会更加敏感，因为利率将在更长时间内保持高位。
And for markets that indeed means that all assets that depend a lot on interest rates and that is of course in particular tech, software, anything that has long duration cash flows are going to be more sensitive now that rates are going to stay higher for longer.
托尔斯坦，非常感谢您加入我们。
Torsten, great to have you with us.
谢谢。
Thank you.
托尔斯坦·斯拉赫，来自阿波罗。
Torsten Slach of Apollo.
我们有个新闻快讯要跟大家说一下，据说奈飞正在探索直播电视业务。
We've got a news alert we wanna get to on Netflix reportedly exploring live TV options.
我们来听听皮帕·史蒂文斯的具体情况。
Let's get to Pippa Stevens for the details.
皮帕？
Pippa?
据称Netflix正在探索直播电视和套餐服务，盘后交易中其股价下跌了约2%。
Shares are down about 2% here in extended trading as Netflix does explore live TV and bundles.
这是《华尔街日报》的报道，目的是提升用户参与度。
That's according to the Wall Street Journal as it looks to increase its subscriber engagement.
这发生在公司今年四月公布第二季度业绩指引不佳之后。
This comes after the company back in April reported disappointing guidance for q two.
Netflix预计下周公布财报，届时我们会得到最新的业绩数据和用户参与情况。
The Netflix is expected to report earnings next week, so we will get an update on that as well as its latest engagement numbers.
今年至今，该股已经下跌了约20%，目前在盘后交易中又跌了2%，据称是因为在考虑直播电视业务。
Now the stock is down here about 20% on the year and down 2% in extended trading as it explores live TV reportedly.
梅丽莎？
Melissa?
好的，Pippa。
Alright, Pippa.
谢谢。
Thank you.
Pippa Stevens。
Pippa Stevens.
看来Netflix又在尝试寻找增长点，但市场可能不会买账。
Sounds like another effort for Netflix to find growth, which may not be interpreted well by the markets.
我们给Dan很多支持，我就不说那些行话了，但我觉得家里的观众都懂我想说的那个词——难。
We give Dan a lot of I'll I'll save the vernacular, but I think the folks at home know the word that I would use Hard
有时候确实很难。
time sometimes.
确实很难。
Hard time.
我以为
I thought
你会说‘爱’。
you would say love.
不会。
No.
对。
Yeah.
我打算
I gonna
这么说。
say that.
不过，如果你记得的话，在交易完成、奈飞股价涨到大约111到115美元的时候，他认为这波涨势必须大幅回调。
However, if you recall, after the deal was consummated and Netflix rallied, I think, to like one eleven, one fifteen, he thought you had to fade that in a material way.
我没这么想。
I did not.
我觉得股价还会继续上涨。
I thought it would continue higher.
你看看现在怎么样。
Look at it now.
实际上，我觉得现在跌到了当初那笔交易传闻期间最低的水平了，丹这下可赚到了。
It's actually, I think, as low as we saw in the midst of that sell off during that proposed deal, so good for Dan.
这正好印证了你刚才说的，他们一直在寻找内生增长，但似乎一直很难找到。
This speaks to what you just said, their continued hunt for organic growth, which seemingly they're having a difficult time finding.
我觉得，就我看到的情况来看，他们接下来肯定会竞标世界杯，那可是个巨大的机会。
I think that well, just from what I see that they're gonna be bidding on World Cup, which obviously has been enormous.
确实。
Love
没错。
it.
不过，人人都会去竞标世界杯。
Everybody's gonna be bidding on World Cup, though.
那他们怎么还会跌呢？
So why they're down?
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我也不太清楚。
I don't really know.
这是下跌了吗？
Is that down?
是因为他们可能拿到手？
Because they might get it?
还是说他们拿不到？
Because they might not?
我本来想说，花这么多钱。
Was gonna say spend that much money.
对。
Right.
还有就是，他们第二季度的指引从来都不准。
The other thing, q two guide they're never good at guidance.
如果第二季度的实际数据更差，那就是另一个问题了。
If q two actually comes in weaker, that's something else.
我持有多头。
I'm long.
这地方真不是个好去处。
It really has not been the place to be.
但我还是看好这个逻辑。
I still like the story.
如果我没负债，我现在就买了。
If I owed none, I'd buy it here.
对。
Mhmm.
没错。
Of Yeah.
我觉得，当他们不再为订阅用户提供明确指导时，确实让人担心会不会出问题。
I do think though when they stopped, like, actually guiding for their subscribers, I do think that was a question of is that gonna be concerning?
现在你说他们想吸引更多关注，所以开始进军现场体育赛事了。
Now you're saying they are trying to grab more attention here, so they are trying to get into live sports.
很明显，他们那儿的内容还不够多。
Clearly, they don't have enough content there.
我觉得这里确实值得琢磨一下，如果他们真花了这笔钱，对未来的增长会是什么影响。
I do think it's something to question here, what the what that looks like for their growth going forward if they happen to pay for that.
他们加了广告，对吧？
They added advertising, right?
他们推出了不同档次的定价，还在尝试做些直播内容，我觉得他们主要在做那种没脚本的直播。
They added different tiers of their pricing and they're trying to do some live stuff, which I think is well, they're doing live unscripted stuff.
成本低多了。
It's much cheaper.
现在他们想进军体育赛事这类领域。
Now they want to move into sports and the like here.
就是太贵了。
It's just expensive.
确实。
It is.
但说到底，我们一个月前就听到这家公司的CEO说过，他们以后要减少数量，提升质量。
But, you know, at the end of the day, we heard the CEO, the company say, I I wanna say this about a month ago or so, that they're gonna actually do less quantity and more quality.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得大家都会同意，他们在甄选优质内容方面确实很在行，而且也很擅长把这些内容推给用户。
And I think we can all agree that they're probably pretty good at identifying quality and they're really good at serving it.
所以我觉得，他们应该搞个更清晰的分类菜单，现在呢，就只有原创剧集、其他平台的片库，还有大量纪录片。
So I think some sort of, like, sort of menu that you are gonna have, you know, right now, it's just the original programming and it's the catalogs of other things, and it's a lot of documentaries.
我觉得内容选择再多一点，用户才会在平台上待得更久。
And so I just think more choice is gonna keep people on the platform a lot longer.
我记得几年前里德·哈斯廷斯说过，他们不是在和其他流媒体平台竞争。
And I remember when Reed Hastings said, I wanna say a few years ago or so, he's like, they're not competing with other streaming networks.
他们是在和你每晚想睡多久竞争。
There's competing with how much you wanna sleep every night.
是的。
Yeah.
还有你可能花时间在其他所有事情上。
With everything else that you might spend your time on.
填补空白。
Fill in the blanks.
接下来，百事可乐销量下滑，公司在今天的财报电话会上说了什么，让投资者感到不安？这反映了通胀和消费者行为的哪些趋势？此外，我们还将分析今日建筑股反弹背后的房地产市场基础，以及房地产市场的最新动向。
Coming up, Pepsi fizzling out what the company said on today's earnings call that spooked investors, what it says about inflation and the consumer plus laying the foundation for housing stocks inside the bounce in homebuilders today, and the latest read on the real estate market.
别走开。
Don't go anywhere.
《快钱》两分钟后回来。
Fast Money is back in two.
这里是CNBC的《快钱》，主持人梅丽莎·李。
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.
条款适用。
And conditions apply.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
百事公司警告下半年原材料成本上升，股价因此下跌超过3%。
Pepsi shares down more than 3% after warning about rising input costs in the second half of the year.
这家碳酸饮料和零食制造商表示，第二季度消费者因油价上涨而承受压力。
The soda and snack maker also saying consumers were pressured by higher gas prices in the second quarter.
今年至今，百事股价下跌了4%，而竞争对手可口可乐则上涨了18%以上。
The stock now down 4% this year, while rival Coke is up more than 18%.
我们想说的是，零食业务的差异，确实让两家公司的表现拉开了差距。
We're making that point, you know, the snacks having snacks is a big difference between the two in terms of performance.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得关键问题是，该把原因归咎于消费者压力，还是他们根本不想买这些产品？
And I think that's the question is, do you wanna blame it on the consumer because the consumer is pressured, or are they just not wanting to buy these certain products?
这确实是目前最核心的问题。
And I think that's the big question here.
因为你看消费者行为，明显比竞争对手更有活力。
I Because think when you look at the consumer, like, clearly compared to their competitors, they are going places.
总的来说，他们的表现还算稳定。
And generally speaking, they have been holding up well.
消费者的支出一直保持得不错。
Consumer spending has been holding up well.
如果你看看债务与收入的比例，其实仍然处于较低水平。
If you look at debt to income ratios, they're actually still relatively low.
大概只占收入的8%，说明消费者整体财务状况还是不错的。
It's like 8% of income, which means the consumer's generally been on good footing.
他们只是不愿意把钱花在这上面而已。
They're just not wanting to put their money here.
尽管他们在海外表现不错，但没做好的是北美市场。
Even though they've been doing good abroad, it was the the North American sector that hasn't been doing well.
我觉得问题更多出在产品本身，而不是消费者。
I think it's more a question of the products than it is the consumer.
这人还是特别喜欢菲多利。
Guy loves Fritos still.
对吧？
Right?
不对。
No.
说实话，我确实挺爱吃零食的。
You know, first of all, I I do love snacks.
Fritos？算了吧。
Fritos, no.
从来没觉得Fritos是啥好零食，一上手就满手油，特别烦。
Was The never a Frito munchie nugget, they would Once you get them on your hands, it's like you get all greasy and stuff.
我更喜欢烧烤味的薯片。
I like barbecue potato chips.
昨晚我还喝了百事可乐。
I also like Pepsi last night.
我说过我能为这事儿讲出道理来，结果现在亏了四块。
Said I could make a cogent argument for it, and here we are down $4.
所以我觉得这个季度的表现已经在估值里体现得差不多了。
So I thought the valuation was sort of baked in in terms of the quarter.
我觉得这个季度不算差，但他们一再提到投入成本上升和需求放缓，这就让人担心了。
I didn't think the quarter was bad, but when they talk about, again, input costs and slowing demand, it's problematic.
而且考虑到它相对于可口可乐的折价，我觉得值得一看。
And, you know, given the discounted trades to Coke, I thought it was worth a look.
我到现在还是这么想，不过我也明白为什么有人会说，别在这儿找机会。
I still do, but I understand why people would say, don't look here.
你怎么把这里的结论推广到其他零售商，比如沃尔玛？
How do you extrapolate the results onto other retailers or go to Walmart?
是的。
Yeah.
先说沃尔玛，今天沃尔玛股价微跌，但整体市场表现还行。
Of Walmart first, and Walmart was down a little bit today in an okay tape.
所以你得想想，这俩之间的关联性应该挺强的。
So you gotta think that's a pretty that correlates highly, you would think.
对吧？
Right?
沃尔玛显然规模巨大。
Walmart is is obviously, they're so huge.
他们比大多数供应商，或者超市之类的机构都有更强的议价能力。
They do have more power than most vendors do, but or than, you know, most supermarkets or whomever do.
但你还是得想，消费者现在压力挺大的。
But you still have to think, alright, the the consumer is stretched here.
不过我也觉得，这种情况反而会把一些原本不去的人吸引到沃尔玛去。
But I do also think that tends to tend send people to Walmart Right.
那些本来不会去那里的人。
Who might not go there otherwise.
对。
Mhmm.
没错。
Exactly.
你最喜欢的薯片是哪一种，就是那种
What would be your chip of like, you're on a It's all
咸醋味的薯片。
some salt and vinegar potato chip.
毫无疑问。
Hands down.
很简单。
Easy.
好吧。
Okay.
现在你知道怎么赢得她的心了。
You know how to win her heart now.
等等，你说什么？
Well, wait, what?
你这是先入为主了。
You assume prior to.
我们真要绕着这个问题打转吗？
We're not gonna go around the horn on that one?
咱们没多少时间了。
We don't have a lot of time here.
你意思是，我这种人啊
What do you I'm like
我是喜欢酷辣玉米片那种类型。
a Cool Ranch Dorito guy.
我可以
I can
看得出来。
see that.
那科特尼呢？
That's also What about Courtney?
现在去问科特尼吧。
Ask Courtney now.
科特尼？
Courtney?
你平时喜欢什么？
What are you into?
你最爱的零食是什么？
Your favorite snack?
哎呀，我不吃薯片的，各位。
Oh, I don't eat chips, guys.
我本人更喜欢巧克力。
I'm a chocolate person myself.
这倒挺有意思的。
Well, that's good to know.
我不喜欢牛油果。
Don't Like an avocado.
巧克力裹脆饼可能挺配你的口味的
Chocolate pretzel could be thin with your
洗澡。
bath.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Alright.
巧克力。
Chocolate.
这里有实用资讯。
News you can use here.
还有更多快钱即将到账。
Lots more fast money to come.
接下来有什么内容
Here's what's coming up
市场。
market.
一位专家表示，这可能正在向市场发出重大预警信号？
One expert says it could be flashing a major warning for the market?
您正在收看来自时代广场纳斯达克交易现场的《快钱》直播。
You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square.
广告后我们马上回来。
We're back right after this.
逢低买入，享受CNBC Pro优惠。
Buy the dip and save on CNBC Pro.
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Twenty four seven access to market moving news and interviews across three global livestreams for $59.99 at CNBC dot com slash join CNBC Pro.
条款细则适用。
Terms and conditions apply.
欢迎继续收看《快钱》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
六月份，现有房屋销量出人意料地下跌，较五月下降了近百分之二点五。
Sales of existing homes unexpectedly fell in June, down almost two and a half percent from May.
这是根据全国房地产经纪人协会最新公布的数据。
That's according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors.
与此同时，这些房屋的中位数价格创下了超过44万美元的历史新高。
The median cost of those homes, meanwhile, hit a record high of more than $440,000.
尽管如此，住宅建筑商的股票却在上涨，托尔兄弟股价上涨了近2%。
Still, homebuilder stocks gaining ground, Toll Brothers rising almost 2%.
伦纳尔，
Lennar, D.
D.
R.
霍顿、KB住宅、PulteGroup今天也都走高，尽管利率依然坚挺，离之前的高点也没差多少。
Horton, KB Home, PulteGroup also higher today, even though rates are pretty firm, and not too far off from conflict level highs.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得这并不意外，因为虽然房价在涨，但更重要的是利率——如果你打算卖掉现有房子，利率这么高，你又能去哪儿买房呢？
And I I don't think this is surprising because even though home prices are going up, it's the interest rate that's more important because if anybody's gonna sell their existing home, where are you gonna go if your rate is gonna be higher?
你买新房子实际上要花更多钱，所以现在没人愿意把房子挂牌出售。
You're actually paying more in that new house, so nobody's putting their homes on the market right now.
这就是为什么房产开发商能从中受益，因为眼下只有他们手里才有足够的房源。
And this is why the home builders are benefiting from that because that's really where you can find the inventory right now.
尤其是像托尔兄弟这样的公司，表现一直相当不错。
But I think especially you're looking at Toll Brothers, one of your better performers.
我们经常提到的‘预算紧张型’消费者，现在最受打击的是低收入群体。
And because we talk a lot about the stretch consumer, it's particularly your lower income consumer who's hurting.
高收入群体受到的影响就没那么大。
Your higher income consumer is less hurting.
托尔兄弟主打的正是高收入人群的新房购买需求。
Toll Brothers is that higher rate of new home purchase.
所以我觉得，分析房产开发商时，关键要看这种分化趋势很可能还会持续下去。
So I think that's what you want look out with your home builders is that bifurcation probably will continue.
对普通消费者来说，开发商还在持续帮他们压低利率，这才是他们能拿到更低贷款利率的原因。
And for consumers, I mean, that's where they're getting lower rates because their home builders continue to buy down those rates.
没错。
Right.
不管他们愿不愿意，这种趋势大概都会继续下去。
They're gonna probably continue regardless of whether or they want to.
柯特尼提了一个很好的观点，尤其是在托尔兄弟这家公司上。
And Courtney brings up a great point, obviously, in Toll Brothers.
他们直到八月底才公布财报，不过我们EC团队的同事已经盯得很紧了，待会儿节目里我们会特别提到他们。
They don't report till the end of August as well, but our crack staff in EC, by the way, we're gonna single one out later in the show.
这是个悬念。
That's a Tease.
悬念。
Tease.
托尔兄弟出现了明显的双顶形态。
Major double top in Toll Brothers.
回头看看2024年，你会发现股价曾跌到65水平，之后又反弹回去测试了这个位置。
Go back to 2024 and you will see that one 65 level traded off, traded back up to it.
如果你和我一样认为利率还会继续上升，而且就业形势并没有失业率显示的那么乐观，那我觉得现在根本不该买家居建筑类股票。
If you're of the belief, which I am, that rates are going higher and that the employment picture is not as rosy as the unemployment rate suggests, I don't think you can own Home Builders here.
这对家得宝和劳氏也不利，这两只股票我都有持有。
Also, it's not great for Home Depot and Lowe's, which I own both of.
再看劳氏的走势图，从疫情后期开始，随着利率上调，五年六年下来，股价根本没什么起色。
And if I'm looking at the chart at Lowe's, going back to the downside of COVID, when we started to come out of COVID, raise rates, I mean, it's, in, you know, five years, six years, it's really done nothing.
表现太让人失望了。
Disappointing.
但至少还没跌破关键支撑。
But still holding in
你的这套分析体系。
your system.
是的。
Yeah.
可这根本说不通。
For no good reason, apparently.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得还得再等等。
I think Still waiting.
是的。
Yeah.
回头再看这个。
Revisit that.
接下来，日元还能跌到什么地步？
Coming up, how low can the Yen go?
日元持续走弱，日本政策制定者面临压力，市场都在关注日本央行何时出手干预，以及这会对当前市场带来什么影响。
The currency extending its slide as pressure builds on Japan's policymakers when the BOJ might step in and what it means for markets right now.
我们两分钟后回来。
We're back in two.
你错过什么精彩瞬间了吗？
Missed a moment of fast?
随时在移动端收听我们。
Catch us anytime on the go.
关注《快钱》播客。
Follow the Fast Money Podcast.
广告后马上回来。
We're back right after this.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
今天的股市整体走强。
Stocks gaining ground in today's session.
道指上涨了140点。
The Dow adding 140 points.
标普500几乎上涨了1%。
The S and P up nearly a percent.
纳斯达克领涨，涨幅达1.3%。
The Nasdaq leading the charge up 1.3%.
与此同时，阿斯利康股价下跌近6%，因其治疗神经疾病的药物Weinuya在一项关键的晚期心脏病试验中未能达到预期效果。
AstraZeneca meanwhile, sinking almost 6% after its nerve disease drug, Weinuya, failed in a pivotal late stage heart disease trial.
这款与Ionis Pharma联合开发的药物，未能实现降低心血管死亡和反复心脏事件的主要终点目标。
The drug jointly developed with Ionis Pharma missing its primary endpoint of reducing cardiovascular death and recurrent heart events.
而Meta今天上涨了近5%。
And meta rising nearly 5% today.
据报道称，该公司计划从九月开始生产一款新的AI芯片，以期明年将算力规模提升至14吉瓦。
According to reports, the company is planning to start production of a new AI chip in September as it looks to scale 14 gigawatts of compute next year.
它将与博通合作设计，并由台积电负责制造。
It will work with Broadcom on the design and Taiwan Semi on manufacturing.
Karen，你对这个消息怎么看？
How did you take this news, Karen?
其实有几件事在同时发生。
Well, there's a few things going on.
其中一件事还挺有意思的。
It's sort of interesting for one.
但另一方面，我在看Meta，很明显马克·扎克伯格在传递一个信息：事情没完全按计划走，但我们一定会应对，会重新思考收入来源该怎么搞。
But also, I'm just looking at Meta, you know, clearly Mark Zuckerberg seems to be he's he's messaging that, okay, things aren't going exactly as planned, but, you know, we're gonna address this and we're gonna think about revenue streams and how to do that.
这真让我搞不清楚他们到底会花多少资本支出。
It does really make me confused about how much capex they will spend.
一方面他看起来非常激进，另一方面他又好像听进去了意见——这么大的资本投入，最终回报到底值不值，心里没底，股价也因此受了影响。
On the one hand, he seems to be very aggressive, and on the other hand, I think he's getting the you know, he hears the message that capex spend, it's it's questionable what the ultimate return on it is going to be, and the stock has suffered for it.
最近几个月股价倒是反弹了一些，但接下来会怎么走，真的很有看点。
It's rallied some in the last couple of months, but that's gonna be a really interesting tell.
我今天看了Meta财报前的跨式期权，行权价在12美元左右，波动率大概也是12%。
I looked at the straddle today for Meta for earnings at 12 it looks about 12%, which is a 12%.
这波波动可不小。
Very big move.
我觉得，这一家可能是所有超大规模云服务商里最值得盯的。
So, mean, this one I think will be probably the most interesting of all the hyperscalers.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得Meta在AI上的故事太混乱了，反而可能最后会不错。
I think Meta's story on AI is so confusing that it might end up being good.
我是认真的。
I mean that, seriously.
没错。
Think So
混乱，但不错。
confusing, good.
这事儿吧。
It's
是的。
Yeah.
不是。
No.
我只是觉得投资者很难把这一切理清楚。
I just think investors are really having a hard time putting this all together.
但再说回英伟达，他们可是英伟达的大客户啊。
But again, you know, going back to NVIDIA, I mean, that is a huge customer of NVIDIA.
我们都在想，为什么这事一点进展都没有？毕竟他们所有的大客户现在都转向别处，或者自己研发芯片了。
We're wondering why is this thing not going anywhere because all of their huge customers are going other places or designing their own chips right now.
与此同时，日元兑美元汇率跌到了近四十年来的最低点。
Meantime, the Japanese Yen trading around four decade lows against the dollar.
我们的下一位嘉宾认为，这一动向是市场的重要预警信号，可能会迫使日本央行出手干预。
Our next guest sees the move as a major warning sign for the market, which could push the Bank of Japan to intervene.
凯西·李是BK资产管理公司的外汇策略主管。
Kathy Lien is managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management.
凯西，很高兴你能加入我们。
Kathy, great to have you with us.
我总觉得，每天早上醒来，你都会想——可能不是我，而是你。
I feel like every morning, you wake up and you wonder probably you, maybe not me.
今天日本央行会不会真的出手干预呢？
Wondering if the Bank of Japan will actually intervene that day.
你认为到目前为止为什么还没行动呢？
Why do you think it hasn't so far?
我觉得日本方面对日元疲软的容忍度明显提高了，毕竟这有利于出口商和旅游业。
I think it's become clear that the Japanese tolerance for a weekend, you know, in support of exporters as well as tourism has increased significantly.
他们也清楚，如果没有美国配合协调干预，单靠自己是没用的。
They also know that without the support of The US coming in and coordinating intervention, their efforts will be futile.
所以目前没看到任何干预迹象，要么是因为还在争取美国支持，要么就是日本已经更愿意接受日元走弱了。
So that is why we haven't seen any evidence of intervention because either trying to convince The US or they're actually tolerating more yen weakness.
很可能两种情况同时存在。
It's probably a combination of both.
好的，Kathy。
Alright, Kathy.
今年七月左右，情况差不多就是这样。
Was July of it's around this time of year, actually.
2024年，美元兑日元汇率是161。
2024, dollar yen $1.61.
CPI数据是在周四公布的。
CPI print came out on a Thursday.
数据偏弱。
It was soft.
美元兑日元在五分钟内就跌到了1.57。
Dollar yen in five minutes went to $1.57.
到那年8月2日，也就是一个月后，VIX指数已经涨到了60左右。
By August 2 of that year, a month later, the VIX was trading like 60.
美国股市承受了巨大压力。
The US equity market was under considerable pressure.
情况已经大不相同了，因为他们的债券市场恶化得非常厉害。
The circumstances have changed considerably because their bond market has deteriorated exceedingly.
从那以后，情况简直天差地别。
I mean, just an extraordinary amount since that time.
债务占GDP的比例已经达到了250%。
Debt to GDP, 250%.
他们现在没什么办法可用了。
There are no levers they can pull.
那我们到底该担心什么呢？
So what should we be worried about here?
从日本的角度来看，值得担心的地方确实不少。
Well, from the perspective of Japan, there's probably a lot to be worried about.
我们说的是日本的市场情况。
We're talking about, you know, Japan's markets.
现在还谈不上危机信号，但绝对是个预警——债务占GDP比重太高，日元疲软又推高了民众的生活成本，虽然对出口商有利，但对普通消费者来说太糟糕了。
We don't necessarily have a crisis signal right now, but it's definitely a warning sign because the problem that we're having with the debt to GDP level, the problem they're having with the weak yen impacting the cost of living for consumers, yes, it's helping exporters, but this is very bad for consumers.
这些因素最终都会拖累日经指数。
All of that is going to translate into weakness for the Nikkei.
还没明显表现出来，但日本的家庭消费整体一直很疲软。
We haven't seen it yet, but household spending in general has been very weak in Japan.
而且他们还得面对食品价格可能继续上涨的问题。
And they're dealing with, you know, the possibility of food costs rising as well.
而且，他们和中国的紧张关系也严重打击了出口需求。
And, of course, you know, their strife with China is hurting a lot of, you know, export demand.
所以现在有很多让人担心的迹象，让我对日经指数的走势很不安。
So there's a lot of trouble spots that make me worried about the the Nikkei level right now.
几周前好像有过一些说法，提到日本和美国财政部之间保持着畅通的沟通渠道。
I think that there was some guidance a few weeks back that there's open lines of communication between the Japan and and treasury here.
我想知道，你觉得财政部是不想插手，还是有什么理由暂时不帮日本稳定汇率？
And I'm wondering if you think treasury is is just doesn't want to take part of the in this or what the reasoning might be for not stepping in helping Japan yet.
我觉得目前各方介入外汇干预的意愿仍然有限。
I think the motivation to get involved in the intervention of the currency is still limited at this point.
说到底，美国更关注的是自己国内的情况。
I think, you know, at the end of the day, you know, The US, they're focused on, you know, what's happening in, you know, within its own borders.
他们并不太想直接进入市场干预。
I think they don't want to necessarily intervene in the markets.
他们现在更想看看，光靠口头表态能不能起到效果。
And they're trying to see if verbal intervention will be effective enough.
说到底，我们都明白，光靠干预是解决不了问题的。
At the end of the day, I think every all of us realize that it's going to it's not just gonna be intervention that's going to be effective.
还得看美国收益率大幅下降，再加上一些避险情绪的推动。
It needs to come from substantial fall in US yields as well as, you know, some sort of risk aversion events.
这些都得靠美国那边，也就是美国的利率走势和经济数据来驱动。
And so that comes from The US side, The US interest rate story, The US data story.
过去也好，将来也罢，汇市干预很少能持久生效。
Intervention in the past, you know, probably in the future is rarely lasting.
日元会跌破四十年低点吗？
So do we break forty year lows on the Yen?
你觉得会走到哪一步？
Where do we go?
我觉得可能会跌到1.65附近。
I think we get to, you know, right under $1.65.
1.6475这个位置，甚至可能摸到1.65。
You know, $1.64 75, we will even hit $1.65.
这将是我的下一个目标，因为美联储的立场现在非常强势。
That's my next target because the reason here is that the Fed story is very strong.
我觉得今年利率继续上升的理由还有很多。
And I think, you know, there are many reasons to believe that rates will continue to rise this year.
只要利率持续走高，尤其是相对于日本和欧元区的利率，资金就会继续流向美元。
And as long as rates continue to rise, especially in relation to some of the other rates abroad in Japan and the Eurozone, demand will continue to flow into the greenback.
只要美元需求不减，日元就会持续承压。
And as long as the greenback remains in demand, that's going to keep the yen under pressure.
现在想扭转这个局面，难度非常大。
It's gonna be very difficult scenario for to change at this point.
政治因素会起作用吗？
Do politics come into play at all?
日本央行虽然是央行，但你也提到了生活成本问题，尤其是油价这么高，对日本人来说确实是实实在在的负担。
I mean, the Bank of Japan, of course, is central bank, but at the same time, you mentioned cost of living, and that is a real problem, especially as oil prices are so high, particularly for the Japanese.
这成了首相所在政党的一个大问题。
This becomes a real problem for the political party of the prime minister.
你觉得这些因素会在什么时候开始产生影响呢？
At what point do you think that factors in if at all?
我觉得现在这个问题已经变得非常紧迫了，这可能也是最近加息的部分原因——他们想遏制日元的下跌，但也意识到光靠这一招效果有限。
I think that's becoming a very pressing issue right now, and that's probably part of the motivation for the latest interest rate hike because maybe they want to stem the slide in the Yen, and they realize that that alone isn't ineffective.
我觉得接下来会引发很多政治上的矛盾，因为日元跌到四十年低点，而且持续这么长时间，后果会很严重，尤其是旅游业本来就已经受创了。
So I think it's gonna be a lot of political strife that starts becoming out of this because forty year lows, you know, for a prolonged period of time is going to be very damaging, especially when you're hurting already from the tourism, factor.
所以我认为，这股影响会波及经济、政治和社会各个层面。
So I think, you know, it's going to have reverberations all around the economy politically, economically, socially as well.
凯西，很高兴见到你。
Kathy, great to see you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
总是这么愉快。
Always a pleasure.
凯西·李恩，BK资产管理公司。
Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management.
你觉得会发生什么？
What do you think happens?
他们是全球最大的美国国债外国持有者，持有1.2万亿美元。
They own they're the largest foreign holder of US treasuries in the world, $1,200,000,000,000.
我觉得会发生什么？
What do I think happens?
他们不得不采取行动，我认为只能通过抛售国债来支撑日元，但历史上这种做法从来不管用。
They're gonna have to do something there, and I think it requires them to sell treasuries, try to defend the currency, which is a mooks game historically.
根本没用。
It doesn't work.
那他们什么时候得转向债券市场呢？
So when they gonna have to turn to their bond market?
这个问题毫无疑问是存在的。
I mean, there are problems there without questions.
他们没有任何有效的手段能解决这个问题，迟早会影响到这里。
There are no levers they're gonna pull that are gonna fix this, and at some point it makes its way here.
我只是不知道临界点会在哪儿，但我知道，他们的债券市场每天都在下跌，货币每天也在贬值，就像SoFi的丽兹·托马斯说的，这本质上是个需要解决的关系问题。
I just don't know what the breaking point is, but I will tell you, each day their bond market sells off, each day their currency sells off, as Liz Thomas of SoFi says, that's a relationship problem that needs to be reconciled somehow.
与此同时，股市倒是受益了，凯西之前也提到过这一点，所以你是不是觉得，股市还能继续涨？
At the same time, good for the stock market, which Kathy had suggested, and so therefore, I mean, would you think, oh, the knee can't more room to run.
凯西说经济会走弱，那为什么股市不能涨得更高呢？
Mean, Kathy says that it's gonna get weaker, why wouldn't the stock market go higher?
我手里有DXJ，也就是日元对冲基金。
Well, I have the the DXJ, which is the yen of Adjusted.
对冲过的。
Adjusted.
没错。
Right.
这样你就不用承担汇率风险了，我打算继续持有它。
So you're not taking the currency risk, and I wanna continue to hold that.
不过，你说得对。
But, I mean, you're right.
我刚入行的时候，英镑还在硬撑，结果大家都知道，那根本没成功。
They we you know, I came into the business when the pound was being defended, and we all know that that didn't really work out.
从那以后，我记不清哪次货币保卫战真能奏效的。
So since then, I can't remember a currency really being defended that really
确实有效。
That works.
那样做纯粹是白费劲。
Pushed out that way.
根本没用。
It doesn't work.
短期可能管用。
Short term works
纯粹是浪费钱。
a right waste of money.
赌徒圈里有句话，我不是赌徒啊，但你别想着用好钱去追回坏钱。
There's a saying in gambling, not that I gamble, but you don't wanna chase bad money with good money.
是的
Yeah.
我觉得这正是问题所在。
And I think that's what this is.
没错。
Right.
接下来，俄亥俄州在今年最具商业吸引力的州中跃居榜首，但最大的惊喜可能不是谁排到了第一，而是那些排名大幅提升的州。
Coming up, Ohio taking the top spot in this year's top states for business, but the biggest surprise might not be who ended at number one, the states that have made the biggest leaps in the rankings.
马上为您揭晓。
That's next.
广告后，《快钱》继续为您带来。
Fast Money's back right after this.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
今天世界杯四分之一决赛开赛，法国队目前以2比0领先摩洛哥队，比赛在波士顿进行。
The World Cup quarterfinals kicking off today with France currently leading Morocco two to zero in Boston.
波士顿。
Boston.
法国队的比赛，世界杯的经济影响已经开始显现。
France The economic impacts of the tournament are already being seen.
美国银行发现，所有11个美国世界杯主办城市的信用卡和借记卡消费都有所增长。
Bank of America finding all 11 US FIFA World Cup host cities have seen an increase in credit and debit point of sale spending.
堪萨斯城、洛杉矶和迈阿密的增幅最大，6月10日到7月5日期间的消费同比上涨超过6%。
Kansas City, Los Angeles, and Miami seeing the biggest increases, spending between June 10 and July 5 up more than 6% year over year.
不过，看起来耐克似乎没从世界杯中受益，但按以往经验，也许他们其实有。
Although, it seemed like Nike didn't have any boost from the World Cup and traditionally Maybe they did.
哦，有意思。
Oh, interesting.
是的。
Yes.
本该更糟的。
Should be worse.
对。
Yes.
哦。
Oh.
哦，是啊。
Oh, yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我倒没想过这一点。
I hadn't thought about that.
所以。
So
你刚签了字。
you just signed it.
没错。
Right.
好吧。
Alright.
咱们走着瞧吧。
We'll see.
与此同时，俄亥俄州今年可能登顶CNBC年度全美最佳营商州榜首，但2026年哪个州的排名跃升最猛呢？
Our meantime, Ohio may be number one on CNBC's annual top states for business this year, but which one saw the biggest moves in 2026?
斯科特·科恩在哥伦布市带来最新情况。
Scott Cohen is in Columbus with more.
斯科特。
Scott.
你好，梅丽莎。
Hi, Melissa.
俄亥俄州的发展算是慢慢爬升的。
It's been a kinda slow climb for Ohio.
我们2007年第一次做这个排名时，它还排在第三十名。
They were thirtieth the first year that we did this in 2007.
其他州的排名上升得甚至比这还快。
Other states are moving up the ranks even a little bit faster than that.
我们来看看今年进步最大的州。
Let's check out this year's most improved state.
阿肯色州——自然之州，今年跃升了13位，排到第28名。
Arkansas, the natural state jumps 13 places to twenty eighth place this year.
珍妮和凯文·西根今年三月从犹他州搬到了本顿维尔地区。
Janine and Kevin Segan moved to the Bentonville area from Utah in March.
这里很宁静。
It's peace.
早上醒来听见鸟叫和鹿群，晚上睡觉还是听着鸟叫和鹿群。
We wake up to the birds and the deer and we go to bed and sleep to the birds and the deer.
但要是得去个地方，开车二十分钟就到了。
But if we need to get someplace, it's a matter of twenty minutes.
他们是犹他州Intermountain Health公司的远程员工，本来可以选任何地方，考察了一圈，最后选了这里。
Remote workers for Utah based Intermountain Health, they could have moved anywhere and they looked, but they landed here.
他们喜欢这里的学校，适合他们的青春期女儿，还有这里热情友好的氛围。
They like the schools here for their teenage daughter and the welcoming atmosphere.
这一切其实都归结为生活质量。
It's kind of all encapsulated in quality of life.
他们的房产中介安东尼·莫斯利说，还有更多人正陆续搬来。
Their realtor, Anthony Mosley, says there's more where they came from.
我接待过从美国各地、加拿大、墨西哥搬来的人。
I have people that have come from all over The United States, Canada, Mexico.
也有不少人从欧洲过来。
Have people come from, Europe.
这帮助阿肯色州在就业领域提升了23位，在经济方面提升了10位，成为全美就业增长最快的状态之一。
Helping Arkansas rise 23 spots in our workforce category and 10 spots in economy, a top state for job growth.
但阿肯色州在生活质量上仍排在第41位，医疗水平更是垫底。
But Arkansas still has problems finishing forty first for quality of life near the bottom for health care.
他们的医疗体系必须做出改变。
Their health care system needs to change.
更别说，就算能挂上专科医生，他们的号也排到明年快年底了。
On top of that, even if we did get into a specialty doctor, they're booked out there until almost next year.
确实如此。
Yeah.
过去二十年里最大的变化是密歇根州，当年排在第41位。
Biggest move over twenty years has been Michigan, which started at number 41.
今年已经跃升到第六名了。
This year, it's number six.
第二大跃升就发生在这里，俄亥俄州。
Second biggest move is here in Ohio.
这里有一群非常出色的人，每年都有不少人参与评选全美最佳营商州。
There is a great group of people, lots of them that work on top states for business every year.
真想好好感谢他们所有人，但特别要提一下今年的《最佳营商州》制作团队——李恩·米勒和莫莉·伦纳德，这是他们第一次参与这个项目。
I wish I could thank all of them, but a special shout out to our top states producers this year, Lien Miller and Mallory Leonard, their first top states for business.
他们忍着我的各种要求，最终做得特别出色。
They put up with me, and they nailed it.
访问 topstates.cnbc.com。
Go to topstates.cnbc.com.
看看你的州排在第几名。
See where your state ranks.
梅丽莎？
Melissa?
表现非常出色。
Just been tremendous.
顺便说一下，Lien 是《快钱》节目的老成员。
And Lien, by the way, is a Fast Money alum.
她以前就在这个团队，也给她点个赞。
She was on this team, so, shout out to her too.
斯科特，谢谢你。
Scott, thank you.
我感觉一年到头几乎就只能见你一次。
I it's too I feel like I only I only see you once a year, basically.
那明年见。
So see you next year.
斯科特·科恩。
Scott Cohen.
说不定哪天我就回来了，不过嘛。
Maybe, you know, sometimes I come back, but yeah.
希望如此。
I hope so.
谢谢。
Thank you.
希望在这之前还能见到你。
Hope to see you before then.
好的。
Alright.
在2027年之前。
Before 2027.
是的
Yeah.
但今年俄亥俄州无疑是商业环境最好的州。
But Ohio, of course, is, the top state for business this year.
迈克·桑托利确实值得称赞。
Mike Santoli, have to give him some credit.
我的收盘钟声加班搭档。
My closing bell overtime cohost.
他猜对了。
He guessed it.
真聪明。
Clever.
他完全猜中了。
He nailed it.
他是个聪明的‘是’。
He's a clever Yes.
当然还有乔·科南，那位了不起的乔·科南，今天早上跟你一起主持节目的人。
And of course, Joe Kernan, the great Joe Kernan, who you cohosted with this morning.
他今天早上想在《早间秀》上放些彩纸屑。
He wanted to have confetti on Squawk Box this morning.
他还弄了个那种派对拉花装置。
He got one of these party popper things.
没有，他没成功。
No, he didn't.
他怎么都拉不响。
He couldn't pop it.
根本没响。
It didn't pop.
是因为他操作不了吗？
Because he's one that was unable to?
他扭了扭。
Twisted it.
他根本扭不动。
He couldn't twist it.
是的。
Yeah.
这充分说明了乔·科南这个人。
That speaks volumes as to Joe Kernan.
还有来自俄亥俄州的莎拉·艾森。
And also, of course, Sarah Eisen from the great state of Ohio.
对。
Yes.
斯科特·科恩做得太棒了。
But Scott Cohen does it's amazing.
这工作挺有意思的，也很棒。
It's fun work, and it's great.
你说得对。
And you're right.
他应该经常上这个节目。
He should be on this show more often.
确实应该。
He should.
我们挺想Scott的，但这个真的太棒了。
We miss Scott, but this is amazing.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，我要说说星巴克的变动——准确说是 brewing 变动。
Coming up, changes at brewing changes brewing, I should say, at Starbucks.
这家咖啡连锁企业正加大使用人工智能来降低成本，这是公司最新举措，也将对挣扎中的软件行业产生影响，稍后为您详解。
The coffee chain upping its reliance on AI to cut costs inside the company's latest efforts and the impact on the struggling software sector straight ahead.
《快钱》节目两分钟后回来。
More Fast Money in two.
欢迎回到《快钱》，星巴克今天股价上涨了2.5%，原因是报道称公司正利用人工智能开发内部软件。
Welcome back to Fast Money Starbucks jumping two and a half percent today on reports the company is tapping into AI to develop in house software.
这一举措有望减少对IBM和微软等第三方供应商的依赖，也是这家咖啡连锁公司20亿美元成本削减计划的一部分。
The move could curb its reliance on third party vendors like IBM and Microsoft and is part of the coffee chain's $2,000,000,000 cost cutting push.
这挺有意思的。
This is interesting.
这说明了企业如何真正利用人工智能来节省开支并获得投资回报，科特。
This shows you how companies can actually use AI and save money and have a return on on that investment, Court.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得大家一直在等的就是这一刻——什么时候才会真正看到成效呢。
And I think that's what people have been waiting to happen is like when are you gonna yeah.
看看全国各地那些小公司，都在用AI降低运营成本、优化业务流程。
See All of these, like, small companies all across the country who are using this to lower their costs and streamline their businesses.
而且这也再次引发了一个问题：像你们这样的超大规模云服务商，他们的资本支出还站得住脚吗？既然企业能自己搞定这些，是不是还得靠你们？
And I think it also is gonna come into question again, the CapEx of your hyperscalers, like, if that's gonna take away from anybody's business because you can do this stuff in house, is that still justified?
所以我觉得我们得继续关注下去。
So I think we wanna see that.
我觉得接下来你会看到越来越多这样的案例。
So I think you're probably gonna start to see more of these stories.
我觉得这特别有意思。
I think it's fascinating.
是的。
Yeah.
还有整个‘AI吞噬软件’的说法，这个叙事确实推动了这一切的发生。
And this whole, you know, AI eats software, I mean, that narrative, I would find I would think fuel you know, this is fueled by it.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这又回到了投资回报的问题上。
I I think that this comes back to return on investment.
咱们看看这些技术实际效果如何，我们已经讨论好几年了，我觉得在中小型企业里更容易实现。
Let let's see how some of this stuff works, and we've been talking about this for a couple of years, and I think it's much more likely to happen in small, medium sized businesses.
大公司预算更充足，能从中榨出更多价值，但我觉得这仍然需要时间。
And, know, I I obviously, larger companies have a bigger budget for this and the ability to actually squeeze more out of it, but I just think it's going to continue to take time.
会有一些特殊情况让人觉得值得去做，但也有很多人会说：说实话，
We're going to have some one off situations that justify it, and there's going to be plenty where people are like, You know what?
我还没到那一步。
I'm just not there yet.
我不确定。
I don't know.
你觉得作为一个中等规模的公司，该怎么看？
What do think of them as a medium sized company?
大公司呢？
A big company?
我不确定。
I don't know.
从起步开始吧。
Start
它们规模巨大。
They're massive.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
四十。
40.
不知道。
Don't know.
看起来是四千亿美金。
$40,000,000,000, it looks like.
但他们这么做，并不意味着就一定能成功。
Well, just because they're doing it doesn't mean it's gonna succeed.
没错。
No.
确实不保证。
Doesn't.
我的意思是，他们有这个能力和资源去做。
I mean, they have the wherewithal to do it.
如果你是像Salesforce这样的公司，就不得不关注这件事。
If you are, you know, a Salesforce, you have to be concerned about this.
你怎么可能不关注呢？
How can you not?
即使现在还没发生，即使现在看不出这笔投入的必要性，但也不难想象，很快就会变得有必要。
And even if it doesn't happen now, if this cost isn't justified right now, it's not such a leap to think maybe in short order.
没错。
Right.
那样做会高效得多。
It will be much more efficient to do that.
我的意思是，具体到这件事，他们说这是微软的库存追踪系统，诸如此类的东西。
I mean, specifically for this, they're saying it's a Microsoft inventory tracker tracker and, you know, like, things like that.
感觉也没那么大阵仗。
It's like it's not massive.
这根本不是在替换成3.65美元的问题。
It's not like they're replacing $3.65 by any stretch.
但话又说回来，小钱积少成多。
But still, like, at the margins, this this adds up.
这恐怕只是开始，不会是最后一次。
First, probably not the last.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得你提这个点很到位。
I think you're right to bring it up.
那卡特沃斯在你这套说法里算什么角色？
But where would Carterworth sit in your words?
他就像帕特农神庙一样，他……
He's like the Parthenon, He
他说，是的。
said, yes.
他会去看星巴克的图表，当然我不能替他说话，因为他不在这里，但他是会看的，而我也是在看。
And he would look at the Starbucks chart, I can't speak for him obviously because he's not here, but he would look at the Starbucks chart and I say, know am looking at it.
对。
Yes.
我在看。
I am.
明白了。
Okay.
但是
But
如果你看更长周期，就会发现典型的由跌转涨的反转。
if you would do longer term, you'll see a classic bearish to bullish reversal.
星巴克悄无声息地爬了起来。
And very quietly, Starbucks has gotten itself off the mat.
估值很高，但你知道吗？
Big valuation, but you know what?
这里的图表看起来其实挺不错的。
The chart actually looks pretty good here.
是的。
Yeah.
除非你担心消费者方面的问题。
Unless you're worried about the consumer.
我的意思是，我不确定。
I mean, I don't know.
好像他们这里唯一的问题就是。
It just seems like the one thing they here.
对。
Yes.
他肯定会抱怨咖啡的价格，这点毫无疑问。
He would definitely be complaining about the price of coffee, for sure.
不过话说回来，他确实做得不错。
But, no, I mean, he's done a good job.
turnaround 不容易，他能做到这点真不错，但我已经错过了这个机会。
Not an easy turnaround, so good for him, but I've I've missed it.
法庭。
Court.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得关键问题是，消费者现在把钱花在了什么地方？
I I think the question of the consumer, is what are they spending money on?
我觉得星巴克，你看他们的会员体系，确实有一批非常忠实的顾客。
And I think Starbucks I mean, when you look at their loyalty program, like, have pretty, you know, loyal customers there.
所以我觉得这才是问题所在。
So I think that's the question.
我觉得这更多是关于他们如何用人工智能提升效率的故事，而不是消费者的问题，但我想这个问题还会持续存在。
I think this is much more of a story of them being more efficient with AI than it is the consumer, but I do think that's gonna be continue to be a question.
这个人是个忠实的消费者。
Guy's a loyal consumer.
不是为了
Not for
我自己。
myself.
没错。
Right.
为了别人。
On behalf of others.
为了别人。
On behalf of others.
我是个乐于付出的人。
I'm a giver.
星巴克里的施予者。
Starbucks giver.
今天我看到几位不错的警察，他们通常都会说不。
And I saw some nice policemen in there today, but and they typically said, no.
不行。
No.
不行。
No.
他们把那个人推到一边。
They shoved the guy out of the way.
我
I
我说了，我不关心你懂什么。
said, know, I'm not interested in what you knows.
你有为他们转过轮盘吗？你真的帮他们点了单吗？
Did you spin the wheel for them, did you actually take their
没有。
order?
不行。
No.
我问他们想要什么。
I asked them what they want.
好的。
Alright.
我其实有点好奇。
I was wondering.
接下来是终极交易。
Up next, Final Trades.
这周，Fast Money 家庭迎来了一位新成员。
The Fast Money family welcomed a new member this week.
我们的协调制片人迈克尔和妻子露易丝，上周二迎来了一个健康的女婴，取名罗斯·阿塞尼耶。
Our coordinating producer, Michael, and his wife, Louise, welcome a healthy baby girl on Tuesday, Rose Athenier.
天哪。
Wow.
真可爱。
Adorable.
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