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是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我一点也不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓创新的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是，
One of my
想想你老板的老板需要什么。
favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有很多很多不同的形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信你自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，
Life is short, and
要想成就大事，就得敢想大的。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布尔斯汀主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力玩家》节目。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新一期，无论你在哪里收听播客都能找到。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
这里是纽约时代广场心脏地带的纳斯达克市场现场。
Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square.
这里是《快钱》节目。
This is fast money.
今晚的节目内容如下。
Here's what's on tap tonight.
来得容易，去得也快。
Easy go, easy come.
在昨天国债干预之后，长期收益率再次上升。
Long term yields back on the rise after yesterday's treasury intervention.
为什么市场的宽慰感没能持续太久，这对你的钱意味着什么，以及触及瓶颈的问题，Mart。
Why the market sense of relief didn't last long and what it means for your money and hitting a wall, Mart.
这家大型零售商的股价在最新财报发布后大幅下跌。
Shares of the big box retailer sinking after its latest earnings report.
是什么吓到了投资者，这又说明了消费者的现状如何？
What spooked investors and what it says about the state of the consumer?
另外，原油价格触及本月最高水平。
Plus, crude oil prices hit their highest levels this month.
迪尔公司在财报后股价大涨，相信这些炒作。
Deere digs up some big gains after earnings and believe the hype.
Hyper Liquid的首席执行官加入我们，讨论可能进入美国市场以及永续合约如何改变交易格局。
The CEO of Hyper Liquid joins us to talk about the potential entry into The United States and how perpetual futures could change the trading landscape.
我是梅丽莎·李，今晚在纳斯达克的P演播室为您直播。
I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio P at the Nasdaq on the desk tonight.
凯伦·费纳曼、丹·内森、蒂姆·西摩和朱莉·比尔。
Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Tim Seymour and Julie Beal.
我们先从国债收益率的急剧反弹说起，这几乎完全抵消了昨天干预措施的影响。
And we start off with a sharp rebound in Treasury yields that all but erased the impact of yesterday's intervention.
三十年期国债收益率在高点突破了5.25%，十年期则重新回到4.7%以上。
Thirty year topping five and a quarter percent at the highs, the ten year back above 4.7%.
尽管财政部长斯科特·贝森今早在CNBC上试图安抚投资者对近期利率上升的担忧，但市场还是出现了这些波动。
The moves coming even as treasury secretary Scott Besson this morning on CNBC tried to reassure investors about the recent rise in rates.
我们认为收益率并没有反映基本面的真实情况。
We believe that the yields don't reflect the underlying fundamentals.
这次伊朗冲突，我们最终会挺过去的。
This Iran conflict, we will get on the other side of this.
我们不知道具体什么时候，但稍后我们可以谈谈我们准备对伊朗采取的经济措施。
We we don't know when, and we can talk about the economic measures we're gonna be talk taking against Iran in a minute.
你知道，我们认为流动性，尤其是在三十年期这个点上，非常差。
You know, we we believe that the the liquidity, especially in the thirty year point, is very poor.
他的话也没能让股市平静下来。
His words did little to calm the stock markets either.
主要股指全线下跌，道指创下本月最低收盘点位。
Major averages down across the board with the Dow posting its lowest close of the month.
那么，债券市场是不是在告诉我们，后面还有更多痛苦？
So is the bond market telling us there's more pain to come here?
他提到基本面，但我觉得，如果基本面是见仁见智的话，那现在很多人可能会说，基本面恰恰是利率应该走高的原因。
He mentioned underlying fundamentals not being I mean, I guess if underlying fundamentals is in the eye of the beholder, at this point, because a lot of people could say the case is that the under underlying fundamentals is why and and is the reason why rates should go higher.
对，如果你从股市和标普盈利增长的角度来看，基本面似乎相当稳健，对吧？
Yeah, if you're looking through the lens of the stock market and S and P earnings growth, I mean, fundamentals seem pretty sound, right?
现在想想，我知道我们要谈沃尔玛，但当你看到像这样的股票，它反映了我们经济中很多不同的事情，一天之内下跌9%，交易在十个月低点。
If you think about it now, I know we're gonna talk about Walmart, but when you see a stock like that, which is so reflective of so many different things going on in our economy here and down 9% in a day trading at ten month lows.
你可能会在这里稍微停顿一下，但当你想到那个反弹，顺便说一句，涨得容易，跌得也容易。
You maybe take a little pause here, but when you think about that move back, by the way, easy down, easy go.
你刚才说的那个东西是什么？
What what was that thing you just said?
你把那个东西调高调低。
You turn that thing up and down.
那说得挺好的。
That was pretty good.
我是说
I mean
这我可不敢居功。
I I can't take credit.
对，不过确实不错。
Yeah, well, it was good.
我是说，我们这么快就反弹了，对吧，在三十年期国债上，你基本上是在说，我们对这次干预没什么信心。
I mean, the fact that we bounced back so quickly, right, in the thirty year, you're basically saying, well, we don't have a lot of confidence in this intervention.
我想我们昨晚在交易台上就聊过这个。
I think we talked about it last night at the desk.
你想想他们瞄准的是什么，用什么来打。
You think about what they are shooting at, what they're shooting it with.
那不过是个四舍五入的误差罢了。
It just is a rounding error.
对吧？
Right?
所以如果你的经济表现还不错，事实也确实如此，这点我们都同意。
So if your economy is doing okay, which it is, we can all agree on that.
但油价已经到88了。
But you have oil that's trading at 88.
而且到了九月份美联储会议之前，通胀数据很可能会走高。
You have inflation prints that are likely to go higher when we get into September in front of that Fed meeting.
你只能对自己说，现在的情况几乎没有其他可能。
And you just say to yourself, there's very little on the other side of what's going on.
在杰克逊霍尔会议之外，没有任何迹象表明通胀会回落，从而让美联储暂停加息。
Other side of this Jackson Hole thing that is suggesting that inflation is gonna come in and it's gonna give the Fed pause.
他们最终不得不加息，而这确实与政府想要做的、以及财政部长所说的背道而驰。
They're gonna eventually have to raise interest rates, and that really is going against what the administration wants to do, what the Treasury Secretary is talking about.
你知道吗？
And you know what?
我得跟你说实话。
I gotta tell you.
你提到了股市的表现。
You talked about what the stock market did.
在他讲话之后，股市基本上就往下走了。
The stock market basically took a leg lower after he was talking.
我觉得他并没有展现出多少信心，不管怎么说。
I don't think he exudes confidence one way or another.
而且当他谈到，我不知道我们什么时候能摆脱这场伊朗战争，我觉得没人知道。
And when he talks about, I don't know when we're gonna be on the other side of this Iranian war, I don't think anyone knows.
而且我觉得现在，即使我们得到一些好消息，而且我们很可能得到，我也不认为这会让我们的盟友感到有信心。
And I think at this point, even if we get a taco and we're likely to get that, I don't think that is gonna instill confidence as far as our allies are concerned.
但很明显，我觉得我们的对手觉得他们在经济上让我们陷入了他们想要的境地。
But clearly, I think our adversaries feel like they have us where they want us from an economic standpoint.
我觉得这就是让我们可能放缓美国经济增长的因素。
I think that's the thing that keeps us maybe slows down growth here in The U.
S，这最终才是影响股市的关键，因为我们现在离历史高点只跌了2%。
S, which is ultimately the thing that's gonna hit the stock market because we're only down 2% for those recent all time highs.
其实我觉得整件事有点奇怪。
I found the whole thing a little bit bizarre, actually.
我觉得他只是在服从命令。
I mean, it seemed to me like he was just being a good soldier.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Uh-huh.
为了让我们需要降低利率。
To get the we need to get rates lower.
我们必须在中期选举前做到这一点。
We need to do that in front of the midterms.
我们需要讨论如何度过伊朗战争。
We need to talk about how we're gonna get past the Iran war.
我觉得所有这些点他都想提到，但我不觉得市场会按他的意思走，市场还是会按自己的节奏来。
All of those things, I think you tried to hit those points, but I don't I don't think that the the market will do what the market wants to do regardless.
对。
Right.
所以我不太确定这到底解决了什么问题。
So I I I didn't really I don't know that it solved anything.
对吧？
Right?
它几乎完全回到了原来的位置，几乎一模一样。
It's gone back almost exactly to where it was Almost exactly.
确实。
Precisely.
所以我不知道，下次他想出来说点有帮助的话，可能市场的反应会小一点，至少第一天是这样。
And so I don't know, next time he wants to come out and say something that will help a little bit, maybe there'll be a little bit less response, right, for the first day anyway.
对。
Right.
所以这并没有让我觉得……我确实同意。
So I didn't it it didn't make me sort of I I do agree.
我发现自己中午通话时一直在同意丹的观点，你知道，我知道这挺让人意外的。
I found myself just agreeing with Dan on our midday call, you know, which is I know it's a surprising thing.
但你说特朗普不会对现在的油价感到满意。
But when you said, you know, Trump is not gonna be comfortable with oil where it is here.
对。
Right.
我们知道他在乎这个。
We know that he cares about that.
他在乎中期选举。
He cares about going into the midterms.
我其实做空了XLE和OIH的虚值期权，因为我觉得最近一周油价涨了很多，他不会对此感到满意。
I actually covered I mean, I actually shorted some out of the money XLE and OIH because I do think oil has moved up a lot in the very recent week and that he's not gonna be comfortable with that.
他会再说点什么，再次把油价压下去。
He will say something that once again will get oil down.
我也不知道怎么回事，但确实是这样。
I don't know what it is, but Yeah.
然后也许市场会稍微缓和一点，我也不确定。
And may and then maybe the market will, I don't know, soften up a little bit.
我的意思是，我指的是更稳固的基础。
I mean, some firmer footing is what I meant.
我是说，财政部长也说了很多其他话，似乎想缓解一些担忧。
I mean, the treasury secretary also said a lot of other things that that would appear to want to allay some concerns.
他说，是的，我们认为赤字已经达到顶峰了。
He said, we you know, yes, we think we've hit peak deficit.
我们可以通过增长来摆脱困境。
We can grow our way out of this.
我们的经济状况不错，蒂姆。
Our economy is good here, Tim.
但他并没有真正解决那些根本性的长期问题，比如全球利率在上升，而且通胀在伊朗战争之前就已经持续存在了。
And and but it didn't really address some of those underlying issues as the sort of secular issues, like global rates around the world are rising, for instance, that inflation has been persisting even prior to the Iran war.
说得完全对。
That that's exactly right.
首先，我们得指出，全球的利率都在上升。
I mean, first of all, let's just point out that rates are going up around the world.
这不仅仅是美国的问题，所以我们不必为美国辩护。
This isn't just a US thing, so we don't have to be defensive about The US.
看看日本。
Look at Japan.
看看欧洲。
Look at Europe.
看看全世界正在发生什么。
Look at what's going on around the world.
你会发现，这个世界正在要求更高的期限溢价，所以长期利率在上升。
And you can see it's a world that is demanding more term premiums, so the long end is rising.
赤字问题确实受到质疑。
There are deficits that are definitely being held in question.
而且你要记得，欧洲曾经有过主权债务危机，那时候真的看不到头。
And and remember, you know, Europe at one point was a sovereign debt crisis that that really saw no end.
所以你可以说这是个全球现象。
And and so you can make an argument this is a global phenomenon.
斯科特·贝森，我觉得他并没有感到需要辩护。
Scott Besson, I don't think he felt defensive.
顺便说一句，他今天早上花了很多时间，这挺好的，而且莎拉·艾斯纳的采访也很棒。
By the way, he was he was you know, good for him for putting in a lot of time this morning, and Sarah Eisner is a great interview.
但那种认为你需要进入市场，因为八月长期债券市场流动性差，而30年期国债也不是很流动的品种，这种想法对我来说太疯狂了。
But the presumption that you need to get into the market because in August, markets are illiquid in the long end, and the 30 is not a very liquid issue is crazy to me.
我的意思是，说到底，长期利率在动，它就在做它该做的事。
I mean, you know, the bottom line is the long end is moving, and it's doing what it's doing.
它之所以这样，是因为我们有赤字，你知道，你看。
And it's doing it because we've got a a deficit, know, and it look.
在40万亿美元的未偿债务下，人们有很多理由担心这个赤字，尤其是在美国财政状况看起来还行的时候，但我觉得华盛顿并没有任何紧缩的意识。
At 40 at 40,000,000,000,000 outstanding in debt, there's a lot of reasons why people would be concerned about that deficit at a time when, you know, the fiscal dynamic in The US looks okay, but I don't think that there's a a sense in Washington Washington that there's any, you know, austerity.
而且我想说，你知道，关于高等级超大规模企业的资本支出故事，我是说，博通又和一堆贷款机构敲定了600到700亿美元的交易，这和之前提到的英伟达那笔交易很相似。
And I would say, you know, the CapEx story around high grade hyperscaler, I mean, Broadcom closing on another 60 to $70,000,000,000 deal with a bunch of lenders that's similar to what was talked about with NVIDIA.
我是说，这一切都在发生。
I mean, it's all happening.
美元在走弱，而且我觉得这是通胀的表现。
Dollar is weakening, and and I think it's a case of inflation.
哦，顺便说一句，这也是其中的一部分。
Oh, by the way, it's also there.
对。
Yeah.
朱莉，你怎么看？
Julie, your take?
对。
Yeah.
完全同意。
Absolutely.
我觉得这就是那种情况，你知道，在股市里，我们看到的是人们回购自己的股票。
I I think it's one of those cases where, you know, when equity markets, what we see is people buying back their own shares.
这有助于股价，但你知道，真正推动股价的是基本面。
It helps the stock, but it it you know, what really drives the stock is the underlying fundamentals.
对吧？
Right?
这里也是同样的情况。
And that's the same case here.
你可以回购一些自己的债务。
You can buy back some of your own debt.
问题是，人们真正期待的是成熟的行为，来控制赤字。
The thing is is that what people are really looking for is grown up behavior to get deficits under control.
我认为这不是巧合，这种压力正好发生在我们达到40万亿美元的时候。
I don't think it's a coincidence that this pressure is happening right when we hit 40,000,000,000,000.
我真的认为，如果他们真的在乎利率，就需要有所认识。
I really think that there needs to be some recognition if they really do care about rates.
我觉得大家需要认识到，很多不同项目的支出已经到了不可持续的地步。
I think there needs to be some recognition that the spending on a lot of different programs has really gotten to a point that's unsustainable.
而且我觉得，如果在这方面有更成熟的做法，那对利率的影响会比单纯回购一些债务更有意义。
And I think if there were a more grown up effort to that, that would actually be much more meaningful to rates than going out and just trying to buy back some of the debt.
我觉得这就是为什么市场不把这事当回事。
I I think that's why the market doesn't take this seriously.
对。
Yeah.
嗯，最近利率的上涨让我们在想，美国是不是有信用降级的风险。
Well, the recent rate rally had us wondering if maybe The U.
美国
S.
可能面临信用降级的风险。
Could be at risk for a credit downgrade.
为了了解更多，我们请来了战略与国际研究中心经济项目主任菲尔·勒克。
For more, let's bring in Phil Luck, director of the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
他还担任过副经济学家、首席副经济学家，这职位几乎算是降职了，是在拜登总统时期的美国国务院。
He was also deputy economist, deputy chief economist, almost gave you a demotion, for the U.
美国
S.
国务院，在拜登总统任内。
Department of State under president Biden.
菲利普，很高兴你能来和我们聊聊。
Philip, great to have you with us.
很高兴
Good to
听到您的声音。
hear.
在讨论信用评级下调之前，我想知道您认为，如果财政部现在进行干预，这一举措会如何改变全球市场参与者对美国和我国信用状况的看法？哪怕只是一点点变化也好。
Before we get into the credit downgrade, mean, I'm wondering how you think this action, you know, makes market participants around the world think differently, if at all, about The United States and about our credit if the treasury is intervening right now.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，就像前面几位嘉宾提到的，财政部确实能让利率低个一天或一天半，但很明显，市场对基本面的看法和部长不一致，而这次我倾向于同意市场的看法。
I mean, I I to to the point that earlier panelists discussed, you know, treasury can clearly buy lower rates for a day or a day and a half, but clearly, the fundamentals, the market disagrees with the secretary about what the fundamentals are, and I would happen to agree with the market here.
另外，关于你提到的另一点，这显然是一种模式。
I would also say that to your other point, this is clearly a pattern.
现在这已经不是孤立事件了。
This is not an insulated incident now.
我们已经看到了一种模式，不管是日元购买还是这次，还是去年早些时候。
We've seen sort of a pattern, whether it be the yen purchases or this or earlier last year.
你知道，这里明显有一个干预市场的财政部。
You know, there's a clearly interventionist treasury here.
而问题的一部分在于，他们认为自己需要干预的方式。
And and part of the issue here is the way they think they need to be interventionist.
对吧？
Right?
所以我觉得，这真的可能会让更多的参与者停下来思考。
So I think I think this really could create pause for more participants.
你觉得这会不会让凯文·沃什的处境更难？
How do you think this, will make it more difficult perhaps for Kevin Worsch?
我的意思是，凯文·沃什之前明确说过，他希望美联储不要插手，让市场自己发出纯粹的信号。
I mean, Kevin Worsch had clearly said that he wanted to see he wanted he wanted the Fed to step out of it and to let the market sort of, you know, have a pure message from the markets.
但现在财政部却在干预，买入长期债券，发行短期债券，把整条收益率曲线都扭曲了。
And here we have an interventionist Treasury who's buying on the long and issuing on the short end and really distorting the whole curve.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
而且，你知道，我觉得这其实是两党都在转向更干预主义的财政部。
And this is, you know, I mean, I think this is a bit of a bipartisan shift away and towards a more interventionist treasury.
但这正是贝森特在批评耶伦财长时所指责的那种做法。
But this is exactly the type of activity that was criticized by Bessent when Secretary Yellen spit on.
我觉得这真的是一个转变。
I think this is really it's a shift away.
而且我觉得这显然让沃什的情况变得更加复杂了。
And I think this makes it obviously much more complicated for a wharsh.
再说，市场确实在寻找明确的信号，部分原因就是刚才提到的，如果这种情况继续下去，账就算不过来了。
Again, markets are really looking for clear signals here, in part because of what was just said, which is if this keeps going, the math just doesn't add up.
过去十年左右，我们的债务翻了一番，而在这段时间里，几乎每个季度我们的经济都在增长。
We've doubled our debt over the last ten years or so, that almost every single quarter over that period, we've been growing as an economy.
你知道，如果看看这届政府的移民政策，那也会对美国经济的长期增长造成阻碍。
You know, if you look at the immigration policy of this administration, that puts a break on the long term growth of The US economy as well.
所以你看，三十年国债实际上是对美国经济长期增长和繁荣的一种押注。
So, look, thirty year bonds are a bet on the growth and prosperity of The US economy in the long term.
我们做了很多事情，结果反而给这种增长添了不少麻烦。
We're doing a lot to sort of, you know, have barnacles on the side of that growth.
嘿，菲尔。
Hey, Phil.
这不是什么新鲜事，但你知道，这种情况总是时不时冒出来。
This is not a new occurrence, but it's something that, you know, keeps popping up a little bit.
你想想看，财政部长贝塞特，他显然是个市场参与者，现在他工具箱里的工具可能比他在对冲基金时多得多。
When you think of, you know, Treasury Secretary Bessette, he's obviously a market participant, and now he has a lot of tools in his toolbox that maybe he didn't have when he was at a hedge fund.
但你再想想，像微软这样的投资级信贷，它的信用评级比美国还高。
But when you think about, like, Microsoft as a credit investment grade, it's got a higher credit rating than The United States Of America.
那这会给购买国债带来什么样的压力呢？
What sort of pressure does that put on the buying of treasuries?
当然，长期信贷，当你有能力投资那些从各方面来看都处于有利地位的东西，比如在经济方面，在它们与人工智能等相关的足迹方面。
And certainly, you know, long term credit when you have the ability to invest in things like that that, you know, for all intents and purposes are well situated, you know, as far as the economy, far as, you know, their their kind of footprint as it relates to, you know, AI and such.
对。
Yeah.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
另外我想说的是，你看。
And then the other point I would say is, look.
如果美国……
If The U.
美国。
S.
经济如果只是一家公司，有自己的资产负债表，我觉得它的信用评级会差很多。
Economy was just a company and had its balance sheet, I think its credit rating would be quite a bit worse.
对吧？
Right?
所以，即使从这个角度看。
So it's, you know, even in that sense.
我会说，你看。
I I would say, look.
这是另一个方面，不仅国债有这么大的需求，而且会发行大量债券让市场吸收，私人市场也是如此。
That that's another aspect of this is not only does the treasury sort of have this really huge demand, it's going to be publishing a lot of paper that the market's going to have to soak up, so are private markets.
我们也看到私营部门发行量大幅增加。
We're seeing this huge increase in issuance from the private sector as well.
所以这确实也会给国债市场带来压力。
So that really also is going to put pressure on the treasury market.
而且，你知道的，这说得通。
And and, you know, that's that makes sense.
我们看。
We're look.
如果美国政府和美联储真的认为这是政府债务，并且财政部也这么想，那么资金就应该被用到最高效的地方，因为这笔债终究得有人来买单。
I we should be getting capital to its most effective use if if US really if the US government and the Federal Reserve really thinks and the treasury thinks that's that's a government debt, it's gonna have to pay for it.
好，那我回到我们这次采访一开始提出的问题。
Do you so I'll get back to the question we started this interview.
我是说，你觉得美国现在会不会因为财政压力越来越大，而被三大评级机构之一下调信用评级？
I mean, do you think that The US is now in jeopardy of of a credit rating downgrade from one of the major three agencies because of the mounting fiscal pressures?
你知道的，目前在美国任何地方都很难看到两党合作了。
You know, obviously, there's not much bipartisanship anywhere in the country at this point.
对。
Yeah.
我现在更担心的是市场的反应，而不是评级机构会怎么做。
I'm much more worried about sort of just the the market reaction than any rating agency right now.
我是说，我觉得，我觉得肯定，你看。
I mean, I think I think for sure look.
我们财政纪律的基本面不太好。
The fundamentals of of our fiscal depth are are discipline are not good.
所以，当然，你知道，我不会，我不会反对这种评价。
And so that certainly, you know, wouldn't I wouldn't I wouldn't begrudge that sort of assessment.
但是，再说，我认为这里更大的问题，而且从外交政策和国家安全的视角来看，你看。
But, again, I think the broader issue here, and and taking this from sort of a foreign policy and and national security standpoint, you know, look.
我们是国家安全，经济安全，现在有很多关于供应链韧性的讨论，所有这些。
We are the national security, economic security is a big discussion these days about supply chain resilience, all these things.
而且通常我们做的是，我们会借很多钱来支付这些。
And often what we're doing is we're going to pay for those things by borrowing a lot of money.
我想指出的是，负债累累，处于那种如果看到降级，可能会有很多问题的位置，这带来了很多缺乏韧性和脆弱性，而再次，降级可能确实是有道理的。
And what I want to point out here is that there's a lot of lack of resilience and fragility coming in from being that indebted and being in a position where you really could have a lot of issues if we see a downgrade, which again, may very well be warranted.
菲尔，很高兴和你交谈。
Phil, great to speak with you.
谢谢。
Thanks.
非常感谢。
Thanks a lot.
菲尔·勒克，战略与国际研究中心。
Phil Luck, CSIS.
通常，你知道，遇到麻烦时赤字会增加。
And usually, you know, deficits grow when there's trouble.
对吧？
Right?
你花很多钱来摆脱困境。
You're spending a lot of money to get out of the situation.
而现在我们就是这样。
And here we are.
这，这，我不知道。
It's it's I don't know.
蒂姆，现在如果我们要以这么高的利率发债，手头的储备其实不多了。
There's not much reserve here at this point if we have to issue at these high rates, Tim.
我觉得菲尔说得有道理，这里面的风险比单纯看收益率能涨多高要大得多。
And and I guess that is a good point by Phil, and that is there's a greater vulnerability here than just looking at how high yields will go.
嗯，再说，看看疫情前的数据，债务占GDP的比例，我们当时还不到100%。
Well, again, if you look at where we were pre COVID, debt to GDP, we were sub a 100.
大概在95%左右吧。
We were probably in the in the mid nineties.
现在呢，已经超过120%了。
Now we're in the in the upper one twenties.
这是全球性的现象，而且产业回流是有代价的。
It's a global phenomenon, and there's a cost to reshoring.
把很多新行业当作战略行业来发展，也是要花钱的，这些都得建设起来。
There's a cost to looking at a bunch of new sectors as strategic sectors and that we'd have to build out.
而且这一切都发生在这个国家本来就有大量基础设施要建设的时候。
And this is all coming at a time when also there was just a lot of infrastructure in this country to build out.
让人担心的是，菲尔指出的，美国经济一直在增长，但赤字也在扩大。
It it what's what's troubling is that Phil pointed out The US economy has been growing and the deficit's been growing.
这就说明了一切。
So that says it all.
而且，利息支出的绝对规模也很大，尤其是在长期利率已经上升了100到120个基点的情况下，至少在过去大约十五个月里是这样。
It's also though the absolute size of the interest expense coming at a time when interest rates on the long end have moved up a 100 and a 120 basis points, at least over the last kind of, you know, fifteen months.
你不能告诉我我们不在利率上升的趋势中。
You you can't tell me we're not in an upward trend in interest rates.
我觉得两周前，或者说实际上十天前，我们上周收盘的时候，那就是关键时刻。
And I think two weeks ago or really ten days ago when we closed last week, that was the moment.
现在利率更高了，而且在可预见的未来都会保持高位。
Rates are now higher, and they're they're now higher for the foreseeable.
所以我认为这会对美元产生影响。
So I think there's gonna be an impact on the dollar.
花旗今天下调了美元评级，我觉得这是一个投资机会，不仅可能投资国际市场，还可以投资一些与美元走弱负相关的行业。
Citi downgraded the dollar today, and I think that's an opportunity to be investing not only possibly internationally, but also in some of the sectors that are inverse correlated to weaker dollar.
我们提出这个问题是因为美国债务的两次降级都发生在八月，对吧。
We raised the question because two of the downgrades that have happened to US debt happened in the month of August Right.
很奇怪。
Oddly.
当时交易量非常清淡。
It was, like, very light trading volume.
好像有一次是在周五。
Was, like, one was a Friday.
我记得那时候我们还在做期权交易。
I think we were in options action back then.
是的。
Were.
而且美国……
And the and The U.
……
S.
被降级了。
Gets downgraded.
我的意思是，这有点让人想起那个时期。
I mean, just sort of reminiscent of of that time period.
我只是想知道我们是不是——我是说我们。
Just wonder if we're and I say we.
我的意思是，整个媒体、整个金融界，你知道，有点像，太关注现在发生的事情了，因为很多方面看起来就像小题大做，因为实际上这一切早就已经存在了。
I I mean, just the entire media, the entire financial, you know, kinda complex, like like placing too much emphasis on what's going on right now because in many ways it just seems like a mountain out of a molehill because it's actually all of this has been out there.
就像，这些都已经存在了。
Like, it's all been out there.
那为什么偏偏是现在，这个时刻发生这种事？
So why is this happening, like, right now, this moment?
所以对我来说，如果十年期收益率到5%，2023年1月的时候它就在5%，而当时股市要低得多。
And and so to me, if the ten year goes to 5%, 01/23 it was at 5% and we had a stock market that was much, much lower.
大概4200点，然后我们就一路走高，联邦基金利率最高到了5.5%。
It's like 4200 and we just kind of marched higher with the Fed funds that got as high as five and a half percent.
你懂我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
我觉得股市差不多就在那附近见底了。
And I think the stock market bottomed in and around there.
所以我很好奇，可能还有更有意思的话题，比如经济、股市之类的。我不是想学那些，你知道，像史蒂夫·艾斯曼上节目那样。
And so I'm just curious, like there might be more interesting things to talk about as it relates to the economy as it relates to the stock market and such like that because and I'm not trying to be one of these people who are like, say, you know, Steve Eisman comes on.
他就说，谁在乎呢？
So we he's like, who cares?
你懂我的意思吧？
You know what mean?
就像我们根本不在乎债务。
Like we don't care about the debt.
我们不在乎债务。
We don't care about the debt.
它从来就没真正重要过。
It's never really mattered.
也许情况就是这样，感觉现在事情有点夸张了。
And maybe that's the case, and that it feels like things are getting a bit hyperbolic right now.
这完全合理。
That's totally fair.
对。
Yeah.
完全合理。
Totally fair.
嗯，蒂姆说他不确定。
Well, is it is Tim said it's not sure.
我是说，其他人都更糟。
I mean, everyone else is worse.
不是其他所有公司
Not every other company
国家，但很多国家。
country, but many.
对。
Right.
我们是烂街区里最不烂的那栋房子。
We're the least bad house in a bad neighborhood.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Right.
在房地产行业不景气的时候，对。
At a time where real estate Right.
住房市场已经死了。
Is housing is dead.
蒂姆，你最后说一句。
Tim, last word.
好。
Yeah.
我觉得这次，首先，我不是说利率会一飞冲天，所有东西都超卖了，但你不能否认资本支出占GDP的比例，以及高等级债券发行与美联储竞争的情况。
I I think this time first of all, I'm not saying we're going to the moon in rates and everything's oversold, but you can't tell me CapEx to GDP, what's going on with high grade issuance competing with the Fed.
就像你刚才说的，如果真被逼到那份上，优质信用会把美国政府拉上来。
As you just said, better credits are gonna pull up the US government if they're actually forced.
英伟达的信用违约互换自六月以来已经上涨了50%。
NVIDIA CDS has gone up 50% since June.
与此同时，油价走高，因为特朗普总统声称要对与伊朗做生意的国家施加巨大的经济后果。
Meanwhile, oil moving higher after president Trump claimed he would level tremendous economic consequences on countries that did business with Iran.
油价的每日波动变得如此引人注目，以至于那些原本只有专业市场观察者才用的术语，现在都进入了普通人的日常对话。
The daily moves in oil have become so top of mind that terms long long reserved for dedicated market watchers are now entering mainstream conversations.
昨天，《纽约时报》发了一条推送通知，是关于一篇评论文章，标题是“裂解价差会让你的生活变得不愉快”。
Yesterday, The New York Times sent out a push notification for an opinion piece titled, the crack spread is going to make your life unpleasant.
所以现在美国人都熟悉裂解价差了。
So now America is familiar with the crack spread.
朱莉·比尔。
Julie Beal.
但影响当然就是，你知道，加州柴油价格超高，这会影响到所有运输的东西，你知道，你怎么用柴油来开拖拉机？
But the impact, of course, is, you know, diesel, super high prices in California, and that's gonna impact everything that's being transported everywhere around, you know, how do you feel tractors with diesel?
对，完全同意。
Yeah, absolutely.
我觉得当人们开始对金融术语变得懂行时，总是很神奇。
I think it's always amazing when people decide to get wise to financial terms.
这总是让我很紧张，比如，你知道，我幼儿园老师开始谈论价差的时候。
It always makes me very nervous when, you know, for example, my preschool teacher starts talking about spreads.
那可不是什么好兆头。
That's not a good sign at all.
但我确实觉得这反映了，虽然美国经济对油价变化的敏感度远不如七十年代，但也不是完全没影响。
But I I do think it is kind of this reflection that while The US economy is much, much, much less sensitive to changes in oil prices than it was in the nineteen seventies, it's not right.
这其实不是恰当的类比。
It's not really the proper corollary.
它并不是完全无感，而且这是一个非常重要的心理因素，尤其是在我们进入中期选举的时候。
It's not insensitive entirely, and it is a very important psychological factor, especially as we're going into the midterm.
所以我觉得总统非常关注这个问题，想压低价格，这对我来说是合理的，但他也陷入了一场似乎无法脱身的战争。
So it makes sense to me that the president is very focused on it in terms of trying to drive prices down, but he's also stuck in a war that he can't seem to get himself out of.
所以这里有很多紧张局势。
And so there's a lot of tension there.
但我确实认为我们会看到，当运输成本持续上涨时，价格真的很难降下来。
But I do think that we will see it it just makes it so hard for prices to come down when transport costs just continue to go up.
对。
Yeah.
而且这几乎——我的意思是，你怎么让价格降下来？
And it's almost I mean, how do you make prices come down?
你不可能在那里建一个炼油厂。
It's you can't put a refinery out there.
你也不可能让它运转得更多。
You can't make it operate more.
我的意思是，如果它们已经满负荷运转了，皮帕·史蒂文斯上周说，他们现在推迟维护，以便继续以高价提炼产品，蒂姆。
I mean, if they're already going a 100%, Pippa Stevens is saying last week, they're putting off maintenance in order to continue to refine product right now at these high prices, Tim.
而且我们还听沙特阿美和世界上最大的那些石油公司说，他们最近的财报显示库存有多低，可以说他们以前从没见过这种情况。
Well and and we've also heard from Saudi Aramco and the biggest, you know, exons of the world in their earnings recently just how how understocked and where we are, and and arguably, they've never seen this before.
所以我觉得布伦特原油价格到110美元是有可能的。
So I I think I think we've got a date for $1.10 on Brent.
你看那张图表，我看不出有什么能阻止我们，特别是考虑到现在的库存水平。
If you look at that chart, I I don't see what holds us back, especially given where we are in terms of inventories.
我就是觉得这是我们不得不面对的事情。
I I I I just feel as if this is something that we're gonna have to deal with.
而且我们最近也讨论过石油期货曲线的情况。
And and also, again, we've we've talked about this in terms of the futures curve on oil recently too.
那条曲线现在告诉你，油价上涨的势头会更持久。
That curve now tells you that this is a much more sustainable up move in oil price.
这就是为什么会出现突破，而在我看来，综合石油公司比炼油厂和油服公司更有吸引力。
That's why you're getting that breakout, and the integrated to me look a lot more interesting than the refiners and and also the the oil services.
哦，我认为H是买入的。
Oh, I h is a buy.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，拖拉机开始受到关注。
Coming up, tractors gaining traction.
迪尔最新季度的数据让今天股价大涨。
The numbers out of Deere's latest quarter that sent the stocks surging today.
另外，SpaceX股价下滑，火箭制造商跌回IPO价格以下。
Plus, SpaceX slides the rocket maker back below its IPO price.
今天是什么在影响股价？
What is rounding shares today?
别走开，马上回来。
Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in
你确信自己能做成以前没人做过的事吗？
confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开创性的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是，想想你老板的老板需要什么。
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有很多不同的形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，而且
Life is short, and
你必须想得大才能成就大事。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布尔斯廷主持CNBC的“变革者”和“权力玩家”节目。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新，无论你在哪里收听播客。
New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to fast money.
拖拉机制造商迪尔公司股价大涨7%，创下六个月来最大单日涨幅。
Tractor maker, Deere, surging 7% for its best day in six months.
公司盈利超出预期，净利润近三年来首次实现增长。
The company topping earnings expectations with net income rising for the first time in almost three years.
其中一个重要推动因素，当然就是AI数据中心的建设热潮。
One of the big drivers, the AI data center build out, of course.
西玛·莫迪现在加入我们，带来详细报道。
Seema Modi joins us here with the details.
西玛。
Seema.
那是财报电话会议中一个很有意思的部分。
That was an interesting part of the earnings call.
迪尔公司开始从基础设施建设中受益，高管在电话会议上表示，大型基础设施项目和数据中心建设继续支撑强劲的客户需求。
Melissa Deere is starting to benefit from that infrastructure build out executive sharing on the call that large scale infrastructure projects and data center construction continue to support robust customer demand.
展开剩余字幕（还有 404 条）
迪尔的土方设备订单已经排满到2026年了。
Deere's order book for earthmoving equipment is now full for 2026.
现在，公司上调了年度展望的下限，农业市场开始出现好转的迹象。
Now the company upping the lower end of its yearly outlook with the agriculture market starting to show signs of a turnaround.
别忘了，农民们一直受到恶劣天气和油价上涨的困扰。
Remember, farmers have been challenged by bad weather and rising gas prices.
这反过来也给迪尔近几个季度的前景带来了压力。
That in turn has pressured Deere's outlook in recent quarters.
但据首席财务官布伦特·诺伍德说，2026年将是农业设备周期的底部。
But according to the chief financial officer, Brent Norwood, 2026 represents the bottom of the ag equipment cycle.
一个对农民有利的因素是，由于最近的热浪，小麦价格飙升了。
One factor aiding farmers, wheat prices have skyrocketed due to the recent heat wave.
这增强了他们的购买力。
That's boosting spending power.
迪尔用于喷洒肥料的设备，现在2027年的订单也出现了增长。
Deer equipment used to spray fertilizer now seeing a boost in 2027 orders.
迪尔公司的业绩好于预期，竞争对手CF工业今天也上涨了大约6%，梅丽莎。
With Deere's better than expected report, competitor CF Industries also moving higher by around 6% on the day, Melissa.
西玛，我很好奇他们提到了更高的利率，那会不会影响农民借钱买这些设备的能力？
Seema, I'm curious that they mentioned higher rates, and does that impact a farmer's ability to to borrow in order to buy this equipment?
绝对会，而且过去也一直是这样。
It absolutely will and has in the past.
更高的利率确实和农民愿意花多少钱有关，因为他们确实依赖贷款。
Higher rates certainly have a correlation with how much farmers feel comfortable spending given that they do rely on debt.
这次电话会议里没怎么提，但前几个季度都提过。
Didn't come up as much on the call, but it has in previous quarters.
好的。
Alright.
西玛，谢谢。
Seema, thanks.
西玛·莫迪。
Seema Modi.
蒂姆，我觉得，嗯，我知道你有一台迪尔。
Tim, I feel like well, I know you own a Deere.
不知道你是不是真的持有迪尔的股票。
Don't know if you own Deere.
是的，我持有。
I do.
谢谢，我理解你的意思。
Thank I appreciate you understanding that.
我是我们街上唯一一个自己割草的人，我为此感到自豪。
I'm the only guy on my street that actually cuts his own grass, and I'm proud of that.
但关于迪尔，我想说的是，那是一次有趣的电话会议。
But what I will say about Deere is it's an those were that was an interesting call.
那是一个有趣的季度。
That was an interesting quarter.
确实如此。
Was there.
数字很扎实。
The numbers were solid.
但如果把关税退税剔除的话，就没那么好了。
They weren't as great when you back out some tariff refunds.
其实我的意思是，他们下调了欧洲和南美的农业前景预期。
I actually I mean, they they lowered the ag outlook for Europe and for South America.
不过，是的，他们也暗示我们正处于周期底部。
But, yes, if we they've also insinuated we're at the bottom of the cycle.
如果真是这样，那就该买迪尔。
If if that's the case, then it's a buy the deer.
该卖卡特彼勒。
It's a sell the caterpillar.
对于那个看起来这么明显的配对交易，我会小心一点。
I'd be careful about that that pair trade that seems so obvious at this point.
我觉得这些数字不错，但接下来可能会有一些波动。
I think those are good numbers, but I think there's some choppiness ahead.
对。
Mhmm.
我喜欢那个精准农业技术，就是那个“看到就喷”的功能，能帮农民尽可能提高效率。
I like the part precision technology, see and spray that helps farmers, you know, be as efficient as possible.
我觉得那可能是个利润率更高的业务。
I think that's probably a higher margin business.
但是，丹，他们确实有金融服务业务，提供融资服务。
But, Dan, they do have a financial service business for services to help finance.
你会把这看作是循环融资吗？
Would you look at that as circular funding?
也许吧。
Maybe.
我的意思是，你知道，我们就是来回给来给去。
I mean, like, you know, one thing I just you know, you know, we take it and we give away and back and forth.
我们看看。
Let's see.
我做了那个，就是稍微反过来一点的操作。
I did the thing, like, where you reverse it a little bit.
我是说，听着，农业低迷的时候他们有这么大的推动力，现在又有AI这块，这确实很好，但还有更多连锁反应，比如如果我们真的看到回调的话。
I mean, like, listen, it's great that they have this great push, you know, when agriculture was weak, and now they have the AI thing, but there's more reverberations, like if we do see a pullback.
我们聊过很多数据中心，以及它们现在在地方上遇到的一些阻力，比如有些州在暂停它们，还有各种其他问题。
We've talked about a lot of these data centers and some of the headwinds that they have right now in local, you know, sort of states are putting moratoriums on them and, you know, a whole host of different things.
所以，如果你看到因为那些原因而上涨，那你就得准备好，如果事情真的回调，它也会跟着回调。
And so, you know, if you're seeing this uptick because of that, you better be ready for it to pull back if things do pull back.
看看卡特彼勒。
Look at cat.
我是说，蒂姆刚提到这可能看起来很明显，但卡特彼勒从最近的历史高点下跌了25%，而且它之前交易得像超大规模数据中心一样，现在真的没什么买盘了。
I mean, Tim just mentioned this is like maybe that looks obvious, but cats down 25% from those recent all time highs and it was trading like a hyperscaler and it's really kind of, you know, it doesn't have much of a bid right now.
我知道它现在还在那个位置，但如果经济数据不好，它也会跟着跌。
I mean, I know it's hanging out where it is right now, but if the deer was bad, this thing was gonna go down also.
好了，接下来从SpaceX的股价下跌，到昨天最热门股票的大反转。
Alright, coming up from the SpaceX slide to a big reversal in yesterday's hottest stock.
今天我们来看看交易员雷达上的所有快速变动的股票。
We're digging into all the fast movers on on our traders Raiders today.
另外，沃尔玛的财报引发了人们对消费者健康状况的担忧。
Plus Walmart on rollback is earnings stoke concern over the health of the consumer.
这家零售巨头是不是在为经济敲响警钟？
Is a retail giant ringing up a warning for the economy?
我们稍后会讨论这个问题。你现在收看的是《快钱》，在时代广场的纳斯达克市场现场，广告之后马上回来。
We'll debate that you're watching fast money locked in the Nasdaq market site in Times Square back right after this.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中之一
One of
我最喜欢的一条建议是，想想你老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力的表现形式可以有很多很多种。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，还是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，而且
Life is short, and
你必须敢想，才能成就大事。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布尔斯廷主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力玩家》节目。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新，无论你在哪里收听播客。
New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回到《快钱》，今天股市回落。
Welcome back to fast money stocks pulling back today.
道指下跌了700点，标普500跌了近1%，纳斯达克也跌了1%。
The Dow dropping 700 points, S and P falling nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq also down by a percent.
SpaceX股价下跌4%，因为它的第二个锁定期到期，连续第三个交易日收跌。
SpaceX shedding 4% as its second lockup period expires its third straight session in the red.
股价又跌回了135美元的IPO发行价以下。
The stock back below its $135 IPO price.
阿里巴巴在盘中一度下跌超过5%后，现在勉强翻红了。
Alibaba clawing its way into the green after being down more than 5% at lows.
这家中国科技巨头一年前利润下降了75%，因为它大力投资人工智能，而Moderna在昨天暴涨177%后今天有所回落。
Profits fell by 75% a year ago as the China tech giant pours money into its AI push, and Moderna taking a breather after yesterday's 177% gain.
该股今天回调了近24%，创下了单日最大跌幅纪录。
The stock pulling back almost 24%, its biggest one day drop on record.
不过，今年它的价值还是翻了四倍多。
Still, it's more than quadrupled in value this year.
Julie Beal，你想交易什么？
Julie Beal, what would you like to trade?
可能吧，我还是对Moderna感兴趣。
Probably, I think I'm still interested in Moderna.
这里所有东西背后都有很多技术支撑，我觉得大家都有这种感觉：天哪，当你知道FDA对这些技术一直很犹豫的时候，真的很难参与进来。
There is so much technology that underlies everything that's here, and I think everyone has felt, God, it's really hard to get involved here when you just know that the FDA has been really, let's say, hesitant with some of this technology.
而我认为这证明了科学就是科学。
And I think what this is demonstrating at that the science is science.
归根结底，你无法对抗科学。
You really can't fight the science at the end of the day.
而且从这里开始，未来确实有很多机会。
And there really is a lot of opportunity going forward from here.
Tim，我想问问你关于阿里巴巴的事，因为前几天我们刚聊了百度，市场对它们的财报也是用同样的眼光来看，就是你们在加大投入，那在AI方面我们能得到什么回报呢？
Tim, I wanna ask you about BABA because we got Baidu just the other day and and sort of the same lens is being put on these earnings and that is you're spending more and what are we getting out of in terms of AI?
嗯，百度的指引非常糟糕，所以他们确实把那只股票给毁了。
Well, the the the guide on Baidu was terrible and and so they really destroyed that stock.
我觉得，你知道，对阿里巴巴来说，关键是，是的，他们必须花钱。
I think that, you know, the the idea for Alibaba is that, yes, they have to spend.
不是。
No.
他们不会像Meta、亚马逊和美国同行那样大规模投入。
They're not gonna be spending on the kind of scale relative to what we've seen with Meta and Amazon and U.
美国。
S.
同行。
Peers.
而且，是的，我们知道阿里巴巴，我认为这是对阿里巴巴的奖励，不仅因为他们在AI方面的雄心，还因为他们是一个重要的参与者。
And and, yes, we know that BABA I I think this is to reward BABA for their not only their AI ambitions, but that they're a player.
我的意思是，苹果现在正在与阿里巴巴合作他们的模型，而且我只是觉得阿里巴巴的故事是一个我可以接受的估值。
I mean, Apple is now working with BABA in terms of their models, and and I just think the story in BABA is one of valuation I can deal with.
我把它定在大约14.5倍，而且我仍然认为他们的资产负债表上有现金。
I have it around 14 and a half times, and I still think they have cash in the balance sheet.
所以我喜欢这个故事。
So I like this story.
我看好它很久了。我觉得你可以把它当作短线交易的标的，但我自己也是长期持有者。
I've liked it for a long time, and I I think you can be a trader in this name, but I'm also a long term investor here.
接下来要聊的是沃尔玛的困境。前美国业务CEO即将加入我们的节目。
Coming up, Walmart Woes, a former CEO of its U.
他
S.
会接着深入分析最新季度的情况，并谈谈为什么如果资金快速回流，当前的抛售是合理的。
Business, joins us next to dig into the latest quarter and why he says today's sell off is justified if fast money returns.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。沃尔玛股价暴跌9%，创下自2022年5月以来的最差单日表现。
Welcome back to fast money shares of Walmart plunging 9% its worst day since May 2022.
尽管这家零售巨头上调了全年的销售和盈利预期，但其营收增速却创下了六年多来的最低水平。
While the retail giant lifted its sales and earnings guidance for the year, it posted the slowest revenue growth in more than six years.
首席财务官约翰·戴维·雷尼告诉CNBC，尽管通胀正在削弱消费者的购买欲望，但业务依然强劲。
CFO John David Rainey telling CNBC business is strong despite inflation eating into consumer appetites.
我们继续看到消费者端存在压力。以第二季度为例，逐月来看，六月份汽油价格每加仑突破了4美元，我认为这在心理上产生了一定的影响。
We continue to see some stress on the consumer, and if you you just take the second quarter as an example and you go month by month in June, we saw gas prices tick up above $4 a gallon, and I think there's some psychological perhaps, impact to that.
我们确实看到，在那段时间里，我们的顾客和会员在选择上更加挑剔了。
And we certainly saw among our customers and members that they were more choiceful during that period of time.
那你现在怎么看，凯伦？
So what do you do here, Karen?
你觉得这个季度怎么样，股价的反应呢？
What do you think of the quarter, the stock reaction?
股价的反应并不是没有道理的。
Not unwarranted, the stock reaction.
我觉得最明显的一点是，它之前的价格太高了。
I think the clear thing to me was it was way too expensive going in.
对吧？
Right?
这个季度不算灾难性的。
It wasn't a disastrous quarter.
当然也不算好，尤其是跟塔吉特的季度相比，就更不行了。
It wasn't great for sure, and it certainly wasn't great when you look at Target's quarter.
对吧？
Right?
跟塔吉特比确实不太好看。
The comparison wasn't great there.
但就算跌了这么多，我还是觉得这个估值倍数太高了。
But even down this much, I'm still stuck on the the multiple here.
它还是贵。
It's still expensive.
而且让我觉得最有趣的是，哇，亚马逊的业务看起来好多了，才20倍，20倍，而且是包括AWS在内的20倍。
And I was making me the thing that seemed most interesting to me was, wow, Amazon's business seems so much better at 20 times, 20 times, which is 20 times including AWS.
对。
Right.
所以它有AI的加成，是的。
So it has the AI kicker Yes.
在零售业务之上。
On top of retail.
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yeah.
所以我买了一些亚马逊的股票。
So I bought some Amazon.
我已经持有不少亚马逊的股票了，但我想买更多。
I already own a fair amount of Amazon, but I wanna buy more Amazon.
这就是我的结论。
That that was my takeaway.
对。
Yeah.
就像我之前说的，从那份报告里你想提炼出的要点，我觉得那可能更重要。
As I said before, I mean, takeaways from that report that you wanna extrapolate, I think that's probably more important.
而且可能不只是报告本身，还有股价的走势。
And maybe it's not just the report, it's the price action in the stock.
再看看TJX，你可能会把它归入类似的，比如，价值类股票。
And look at TJ, TJX, which you might put in a similar sort of, like, value category.
我们经常讨论这个低收入群体，以及他们有多受限。
And we talk a lot about this lower k and how constrained they are.
你会以为需求可能会更多一些。
You'd think that you'd see maybe more demand.
但是，你知道，TJX昨天表现很糟糕，今天继续下跌，我觉得沃尔玛把很多零售股都带下去了。
But, you know, TJX, which had a horrible day yesterday, followed through to the downside, and I think Walmart took a lot of names in retail down with it.
我能补充一点关于TJX的吗？TJX谈到了很多自身造成的问题，你很少听到其他公司这样说，也希望你不会听到TJX谈自身造成的问题，因为他们很少犯这种错误，但这次他们确实犯了。
Can I just add one thing on TJX TJX talked about a lot of self inflicted wounds, which you don't hear others that you'd hope you don't hear TJX talk about self inflicted wounds because they don't do them often, but they did here?
所以他们承认了。
So they owned up to it.
他们承认了。
They owned up to it.
对。
Yeah.
不过它还是贵。
It's still expensive though.
你知道，在
You know, in
2024、2025年，我们还在夸沃尔玛，蒂姆，对。
2024, 2025, we were extolling Walmart, Tim Yeah.
夸它执行力强，能吸引高收入消费者，你知道，那些降级消费的人进店购物，还夸它是AI概念股，因为他们在AI上投入巨大。
For its execution, for its ability to get the higher income consumer to trade, you know, who trading down to come into the stores and buy, how it's an AI play because they're investing so heavily into AI.
而且我们当时很乐意给它一个高于市场平均的估值，也高于它自己的历史水平。
And and and we were we were happy to give it a premium valuation to itself as well as to the market.
现在呢。
And here we are.
那在你看来，什么变了？
So what changed in your view?
不可能只是因为估值吧。
It can't just be the valuation.
是不是执行方面也有问题？
Is it execution as well?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我觉得估值问题占很大一部分。
I think the valuation could speak to a lot of it.
记住，沃尔玛已经重新定价了。
Remember, you know, Walmart has rerated.
如果你觉得它太贵了，我不知道它应该稳定在什么水平，但肯定不应该是17倍或18倍。
I don't know where we think it should settle in if you think it's too expensive, but it shouldn't be settling in at 17 or 18 times.
而且他们的投资已经证明了，今天这些数字也证明了，利润的增长比收入的增长更快。
And and what their investments have proven, and they proved them in these numbers today, is that the growth on the on the bottom line is is higher than the growth on the top line.
他们现在比以往任何时候都更赚钱，而且以后也会继续这样。
They are more profitable today than they've ever been, and they will continue to be.
这些投资不只是AI方面的。
Those investments in it's not just AI.
我的意思是，这涉及技术。
I mean, it it's technology.
这涉及资本支出。
It's it's CapEx.
这涉及物流配送。
It's fulfillment.
而且，你知道，他们谈到了他们的门店，以及在新世界秩序中，他们的基础设施实际上也是他们利润率的一部分。
And, you know, they talked about their stores and where in the new world order, actually, their infrastructure is is something that's also part of their margin profile.
广告、会员动态，这些都是大事。
The advertising, the membership dynamics, these are a big deal.
所以我不是说大家这周就赶紧去买。
So I'm not here to say go rush in and buy this week.
事实上，我可能也不会买。
This, in fact, I'm probably not going to.
但我认为，如果有的话，现在是把它列入观察名单的好时机，因为我认为今天在执行方面没有什么问题。
But I think if anything, this is an exciting time to be putting that on your watch list because I don't think there was anything on the execution side today.
如果说有什么担心的，那就是消费者，但你一直都担心这个。
If anything, you're worried about the consumer, but, you know, you always are.
让我们请来前沃尔玛美国首席执行官比尔·西蒙。
Let's bring in former Walmart US CEO, Bill Simon.
他现在是达登餐厅的董事会成员。
He's now on the Darden Restaurants Board.
比尔，很高兴见到你。
Bill, great to see you.
能听到你的见解总是很好。
It's always great to get your take.
那么，沃尔玛是执行有问题吗？
So does Walmart have an execution problem?
是业务有问题吗？
Does it have a business problem?
还是估值有问题？
Or does it have a valuation problem?
我觉得关于他们过去几年经历的重新估值，现在大概就是40倍市盈率这个水平。
Well, I think the discussion about, you know, the rerating that they went through over the last few years is probably where they're at, at 40 times.
这个数字确实很高。
I mean, that's a huge number.
十年前一个好的零售商大概也就是，我觉得沃尔玛很长时间都是13倍。
A good retailer ten years ago would be at, I think Walmart for a long time was 13 times.
我觉得Doug在领导的时候做得很好，他创造并推销了沃尔玛应该获得更高估值的这个故事，包括转板到纳斯达克，还有随之而来的一切，以及你们提到的那些投资，都让他处于那个位置。
I think Doug, when he was in leadership there, did a really good job you know, kind of creating and selling the story that Walmart deserved a higher valuation, you know, the move to NASDAQ, everything that went along with it, the investments that you guys talked about, put him in that position.
我觉得今天可能有点反应过度了。
You know, I think, you know, maybe an overreaction today.
如果你昨天认为沃尔玛值40倍，那今天大概也值。
If you think Walmart's worth 40 yesterday, they probably are today.
如果你不这么认为，那他们现在确实不值这个价。
If you don't, then they really aren't worth, you know, what they're trading at right now.
他们现在正面临三个重大的转型。
They have three really big transitions going on right now.
领导层交接，你知道，约翰·弗纳刚接手。
Leadership transition, you know, John Furner just took over.
业务也在转型中，一只脚在数字化，另一只脚还在实体店。
Either businesses in transition, you know, that one foot in digital and and and one foot in the physical footprint.
最后，还有文化上的变革。
Finally, you know, a cultural change.
他们搬进了全新的、耗资数十亿美元的总部，而且文化也在变，但这家公司一直以来的重点还是控制成本。
They made a move to a big brand new, you know, multibillion dollar headquarters and a cultural change that, you know, focus on costs that that company always delivered.
这真的很难做到。
That's that's hard to do.
所以这三件事同时进行，难度很大。
So those are three hard things at the same time.
听起来你也觉得他们在实体店方面有问题，如果去掉电商，他们的问题会更明显。
It also sounds like you think they have a store's problem, that if you took out e commerce that their problems would actually become more apparent.
所以他们需要重点解决这个问题吗？
So do they need to focus on that?
我是说，公司一直把重点放在电商业务上，而电商看起来确实做得不错。
I mean, there's been so much emphasis on the e commerce side of the business, which does seem to be humming.
但电商的增长根本不足以抵消实体店带来的资本支出和营业收入的规模。
You can't really grow e commerce enough to offset the size and scale of the CapEx and the operating income that's generated from the stores.
如果你算一下他们今天公布的数据，我记得同店销售额增长了2.5%到2.6%。
And if you do the math on what they reported today, I think they were up 2.5%, 2.6% same store sales.
他们说其中5到10个基点是电商贡献的。
And they said that five ten basis points of that was e commerce.
所以稍微算一下，他们的实体店同店销售额其实是负2.5%。
So just do a little math and their store business was negative 2.5% same store sales.
所以你会看到费用在去杠杆化。
And so you saw deleveraging in the expenses.
他们的费用比应该的要高。
Their expenses were higher than they should have been.
他们的库存也比应该的要高。
Their inventory was higher than they should have been.
我觉得他们的门店确实有点问题。
I think they've got a little bit of a problem at the stores.
好消息是，如果他们按说的做，把关税退税和价格上的那部分钱都让利出去。
The good news is if they do what they said and give back all that money they got in tariff rebates and price.
你看，他们在收关税的时候，利润可一点没受影响。
Now, look, they didn't miss a beat in profit when they were collecting the tariffs.
所以他们和其他大多数零售商一样，一直在提价。
So they raised prices along the way, along with most other retailers.
如果他们拿到了退税，就应该把这部分让利给消费者。我相信沃尔玛会这么做，而且我觉得他们可以通过在价格上投资，用几个季度的时间解决这个问题。
If they got that rebate, they need to pass it through and I believe Walmart will and I think they can solve that problem in a couple of quarters by investing in price.
比尔，我是凯伦。
Bill, it's Karen.
非常感谢你来做节目。
Thanks so much for being on.
我一直很感激你能在这个日子来参加。
I always appreciate you being on this day.
你能比较一下现在的亚马逊、塔吉特和沃尔玛吗？
Can you compare Amazon, Target, and Walmart right now?
你怎么看这三家公司？
How would you think about the three of them?
嗯，我基本同意你对亚马逊的看法，它是一家很棒的公司，但20倍的市盈率，再看看沃尔玛40倍的市盈率，我也觉得有点摸不着头脑。
Well, I sort of agree with your comments on Amazon, a great company, you know, for the price at 20 times, you kind of look at Walmart at 40 times, I scratch my head on that one too.
至于塔吉特，我现在其实有点看好它，但如果他们再像过去几年那样发展下去，就有被边缘化的风险。
Target, I think I kind of like right now, really they're if they have a couple more years like they had the last few years, they run the risk of becoming irrelevant.
不过我觉得这种情况不会发生。
I don't think that's going to happen.
我认为他们现在专注于自己的核心业务。
I think they're focused on their core business right now.
而且他们刚刚经历了很长时间以来最好的一个季度，同时也在进行转型。
And they had their best quarter in quite a long while, and they're going through a transition as well.
我觉得他们现在更有紧迫感，也会更加专注于他们的大卖场业务。
And I think they're hungrier and going to be more focused on their big box store business.
所以我看好Target在未来二十四个月内会有所动作，并继续增长。
And so I look in the in the next twenty four months for Target to make some moves and to continue to grow.
我觉得他们的股价今年到目前为止已经上涨了55%，至少在过去十二个月里是这样。
Think they're up 55% share price, I think, so far this year, so at least in the last twelve months.
所以他们正在向前发展。
So they're moving forward.
比尔，很高兴和你交流。
Bill, great to speak with you.
谢谢。
Thanks.
不客气。
You bet.
比尔·西蒙。
Bill Simon.
还有，简单问一下，朱莉·比尔，亚马逊、Target还是沃尔玛？
And just quickly, Julie Beal, Amazon, Target, or Walmart?
哦，那肯定是亚马逊。
Oh, Amazon, for sure.
我觉得他们确实能抓住那些客户。
I I think they are able to really capture that customer.
我觉得他们在价格和价值方面做得很好。
I think they've delivered on price value.
而且我觉得在那些超大规模公司里，你知道，他们以前就做过这种事，他们的股东也习惯了在资本支出上花大钱。
And I think that probably of the hyperscalers, you know, they've done this before, and their shareholder base is used to spending a lot on CapEx.
所以我觉得他们是最有优势的。
So I think they're the best positioned.
接下来，Hyperliquid要进军美国了，特朗普总统暗示这家加密货币交易所可能很快就能进入美国市场。
Coming up, hyper liquid heading stateside, President Trump hinting the crypto exchange could soon get a path into The US.
这对市场意味着什么，以及永续合约市场的增长，接下来在《快钱》节目里继续聊，稍后见。
What it would mean for markets and the growth of the perpetual futures market next for fast money right after this.
欢迎回来。
Welcome back.
比特币触及自6月1日以来的最高水平，此前特朗普总统昨天呼吁国会通过《清晰法案》。
Bitcoin touching its highest level since June 1 after president Trump yesterday called on congress to pass the clarity act.
他还承诺支持将永续合约交易所Hyperliquid引入美国，这使得Hyperliquid的股票和其HYPE代币双双上涨。
He also pledged support to bring perpetual futures exchange hyperliquid to The US, sending both hyperliquid shares and its hype token higher.
CFTC在给CNBC的声明中表示，对话正在进行中，CFTC继续与市场参与者和交易所合作，探索创新提案。
The CFTC telling CNBC in a statement conversations are ongoing, and the CFTC continues to work with market participants and exchanges to explore innovative proposals.
现在，我们邀请到了Hyperliquid战略CEO David Seamus，来为我们做更多解读。
Joining us now for more is hyperliquid strategy CEO David Seamus.
David，很高兴再次见到你。
David, great to see you again.
嗨，Melissa。
Hey, Melissa.
你好吗？
How are you?
我很好。
Good.
谢谢。
Thanks.
特朗普总统特别提到，我了解到CFTC的委员兼主席Mike Selig也在努力把Hyper Liquid引入美国。
President Trump specifically said, I understand that Mike Selig, the CFTC, commissioner chairman, is also working to bring Hyper Liquid into The United States.
你和Selig先生有过交流吗？
Have you been in discussions with mister Selig?
是的，我想说这个。
Yeah, I would say this.
其实Hyperliquid一直在想办法进入美国市场，这已经不是秘密了。
So it has been no secret that Hyperliquid is trying to figure out how to get into The United States.
目前，除了美国和其他几个地方，它在全球几乎都可以使用。
And right now, it's available pretty much anywhere in the world other than The U.
嗯，还有几个地方。
S, couple other places.
但这已经不是什么秘密了。
But it's been no secret.
而且CFTC对此反应相当积极，也很重视。
And the CFTC has been quite responsive and focused on it.
这一点毫无疑问。
There's no question about it.
但我觉得昨天总统在新闻发布会上提到这件事，就等于向全世界表明了这届政府在优先事项上的态度。
But I think yesterday, when the president mentioned it in his press conference, that just, you know, told the world where this is as far as priorities for the administration goes.
所以再说一遍，昨天我们听到的其实没什么新消息，除了他提到了这件事，并且明显把它放在了比大家原本以为的更高的优先级上。
So again, there was nothing we heard yesterday that was news other than the fact that he mentioned it and made it obviously much more of a priority than when than people might have thought it was.
对。
Right.
那你觉得时间上大概是什么情况？
What what's your what how do you think about the time frame?
我是说，会在一年之内吗？
I mean, within the next year?
你知道，这总是——每个经济学家都能预测一切，但就是预测不了时机。
You know, it's always a you know, every economist can predict everything but timing.
这个问题不好回答，但我觉得一年内实现是很合理的，甚至可能更快。
I think that's a tricky question, but I think within the next year seems very reasonable to me, but probably less.
你怎么看待你的竞争对手？
How do you think about your competitors?
不只是永续期货，你怎么看这类所有产品？
How do you think about and not just in perpetual future specifically, but in all sorts of of products like this.
因为我们听到那个评论后，你看CME的股价、CBO的股价，立刻就跌了。
Because when when we heard that comment, you look at CME shares, you look at CBO shares and they went down immediately on the back of it.
你也是这样看待你的市场吗？
Is that how you think about your market?
是的，毫无疑问。
I mean, yes, there's no doubt.
确实有重叠。
I mean, there's overlap.
不久前，CME和石油还是同义词。
It wasn't long ago when CME and oil were synonymous.
在美国，想在别的地方大规模交易石油，简直难以想象。
And the idea of trading oil in real volume anywhere else seemed hard to imagine in The United States.
但这种情况显然在改变。
And that's clearly changing.
而且变化很明显。
And it's obvious it's changing.
我觉得市场已经注意到了这一点。
I think the market has picked that up.
我觉得随着
I think that as
我们
long
谈到CME，六个月前、八个月前，没人听说过Hyperliquid。
as we're talking about CME, six months ago, eight months ago, no one's ever heard of hyperliquid.
二月份，中东爆发了一场战争，那是在纽约时间周五深夜开始的，当时所有传统石油交易所都关闭了四十八小时。
In February, we had a war start in The Middle East, and it started late on a Friday, New York time, where all the traditional oil exchanges were closed for forty eight hours.
但在Hyperliquid上交易石油，我们看到了真实的交易量，而石油在Hyperliquid上才交易了几周，突然就变得非常重要，在地缘政治上占据了重要位置。
But oil trade on hyperliquid, and we saw real volume and hyperliquid where oil had only been trading for a few weeks leading up to that, all of a sudden had some seriously, you know, important geopolitical, position.
大卫，是的。
David, Yeah.
抱歉，刚才有点走神。
Know Sorry about that.
我们说的是受监管的业务，比如Hyperliquid正在挑战CME，但他们也在不断创新，提供全天候的期货交易。
So we're talking about, like, regulated businesses that, you know, hyperliquid is coming after CME, for instance, but they keep, you know, innovating also twenty four seven, you know, futures.
他们还有迷你合约之类的产品。
They have minis, that that sort of thing.
那你觉得他们面对这些老牌企业会怎么样？我是说，我知道你的商业模式。
And how do you think about coming up against their and when I say you, I I know your business model.
你买的是HYPE代币，押注的是它的采用率之类的。
You buy the hype token, and you're a play on, you know, the adoption, that sort of thing.
但你觉得Hyperliquid如何应对那些根深蒂固、存在已久的商业模式？
But how do you think about hyper liquid coming up against very entrenched business models that have been around for a long time?
他们看重监管，显然这也是你们非常关注的事情。
They appreciate regulation, and obviously that's something that you guys are pretty interested in also.
但客户群体就不一样了，要进入机构市场完全是另一回事，而Hyperliquid目前确实没有流动性。
But the customer bases, it's, you know, like to get into institutional, that that's a whole different thing, and Hyperliquid doesn't really have liquidity right now.
对。
Yeah.
嗯，我会这么说。
Well, I I would I would put it this way.
首先，Hyperliquid成立并开始运营时，并不是进入了一个没有竞争对手的市场。
First of all, when Hyperliquid was founded and started its business, it's not like it entered a business that didn't have any competitors.
对吧？
Right?
Hyperliquid起步的时候，币安已经非常庞大了。
Binance was massive when Hyperliquid started.
还有很多其他大型平台。
There were plenty of other massive people.
我觉得Hyperliquid提供了非常好的交易体验，投资者和客户都很喜欢。
I think Hyperliquid provides a really good trading experience that the investors and the customers appreciate.
而且它的手续费非常低。
And it does it at a very low fee level.
这就像老巴菲特的理念，对吧？
And, know, that's like the old Warren Buffett thing, right?
以最低的价格提供最好的服务，人们自然会来找你。
Provide the best service at the lowest price and people are gonna find you.
这些年确实就是这样发展的。
And that that's really what's happened here over the years.
没有理由认为在美国就不会这样，不过在美国监管方面更复杂，需要拼凑起来，但这就是现在正在发生的事情。
And there's no reason to think that it shouldn't happen in The US, bearing in mind that it's a more complicated regulatory, puzzle to put together in The US, but that's what that's going on right now.
大卫，我是凯伦。
David, it's Karen.
谢谢你参加节目。
Thanks for being on.
不知道你今天有没有看到布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗在CNBC上的采访，他重新提起了《清晰法案》还有希望，而两周前这法案基本被认为没戏了。
I don't know if you saw Brian Armstrong on CNBC earlier today, and he sort of revived the idea that the Clarity Act actually had a shot, which was sort of DOA, I don't know, two weeks ago.
你怎么看这件事？
What are your thoughts on that?
我当然希望他说的是对的。
So I certainly hope he's right.
但感觉不太乐观。
It doesn't feel great.
不过话说回来，清晰法案对我们Hyperliquid来说其实没那么重要。
On the other hand, you know, clarity specifically doesn't matter all that much to us at Hyperliquid.
也就是说，法案里没有什么特别的内容会对我们的业务产生重大影响。
In other words, it's not like there's particular things in that bill that are gonna move the needle for our business in a big way.
但我确实认为这显示出美国在正确的方向上迈出了实实在在的一步。
But I do think it shows that there's a real step in the right direction for The U.
对。
S.
资本市场正在朝着应有的方向发展。
Capital markets and this is moving the way it's supposed to move.
所以我认为这对所有相关方都非常重要。
So I think it's super important for everyone involved.
至于能不能成，谁也说不准。
Your guess is as good as mine as to whether it's gonna get done.
我最近没看Calci的赔率，但感觉不太乐观，对吧？
I haven't checked the Calci odds recently, but it doesn't feel great, right?
时间不多了，这就是问题所在。
Time is running out and that's the problem.
赔率是48%，在2028年1月之前。
There are the odds, 48% before January 2028.
是的，你看，
Yeah, look,
48%，在2028年1月之前。
48% before January 2028.
这不算太糟，对吧？
It's not terrible, right?
这就是个五五开的赌注。
That's a fiftyfifty bet.
那还不算太差。
That's not awful.
对。
Yeah.
大卫，和你聊天总是很愉快。
David, always great to to speak with you.
谢谢你的时间。
Thank you for your time.
我也是。
Likewise.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
大卫·西莫斯。
David Seamus.
接下来，美光成为焦点，但CEO今天告诉CNBC关于内存市场的火爆情况，以及公司如何扩大规模以满足需求。
Coming up, Micron under the microscope, but the CEO told CNBC today about the red hot market for memory and how the company is scaling up to meet demand.
更多快钱节目内容，两分钟后回来。
More fast money in two.
欢迎回到快钱节目。
Welcome back to fast money.
今天早上，我们的吉姆·克莱默在爱达荷州博伊西市独家采访了美光CEO桑杰·梅赫罗特拉。
Our Jim Kramer sat down exclusively with Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra in Boise, Idaho this morning.
梅赫罗特拉表示，他认为内存的繁荣与萧条周期可能已经结束。
Mehrotra saying that he thinks the boom and bust cycle for memory may be over.
内存不再只是系统中的一个组件。
Memory is no longer a component in a system.
内存是人工智能的战略基础设施。
Memory is their strategic infrastructure for AI.
它不再是商品了。
It is no longer a commodity.
它现在价值很高。
It is a high value.
这为我们的客户创造了价值。
This is enabling value for our customers.
没有内存，你就无法让AI变得更聪明。
Without memory, you cannot make AI smarter.
你无法让AI变得更快。
You cannot make AI faster.
你无法扩展AI的规模。
You cannot scale up AI.
你可以在《疯狂金钱》节目整点开始时，收看吉姆·克莱默对这位CEO的独家专访，了解更多内容。
You can catch more of him during Jim Kramer's exclusive interview at the top of the hour on Mad Money.
所以，我们再次听到了这样的观点。
So, again, we hear this case.
蒂姆，你以前对内存行业的了解全都过时了，因为它不再是周期性的了。
Everything that you knew about the memory business before, Tim, is out the window because it's no longer cyclical.
我们现在有长期合同，而且人人都需要这东西。
We've got long term contracts, and everybody needs this stuff.
这是战略性的。
It's strategic.
好吧，人人都需要这东西，而且有需求，我们也看到了这一点。
Well, everybody needs this stuff, and there's demand, and and we've seen that.
我很难说它不再是周期性的。
I it's hard for me to argue that it's not still cyclical.
是的。
Yes.
它是必需的，内存作为组件更重要了，但它和能源输入没什么两样，你知道，就像某些东西需要能源才能运行一样。
It's needed, and memory is more important as a component, but it's it's no different than, you know, an you know, an energy input in something that it it needs it to run.
所以我还是觉得我们不知道边界在哪里。
And so I I still think we don't know the boundaries.
对。
Yes.
总的来说，内存在增长，类型和灵活性也在增加，但我们不知道的是，它是否以同样的速度，也就是线性地跟随现有的GPU周期。
Overall, memory is growing and different types and flexibility, but what we don't know is is at the same rate, you know, kind of in a linear fashion to the the existing, you know, GPU cycle.
对我来说，或者CPU的周期。
I I just, to me or CPUs.
我觉得这里的情况是，即使我们知道内存需求会上升，你仍然无法判断它会走向何方，需求到底有多大。
I I think you've got a case here where you still can't tell where it's going and where memory demand is even if we know it's going higher.
这对美光来说是好事。
Good for Micron.
他们对自己的业务进行了投资。
They have invested in their business.
这也是今天吉姆采访中提到的一部分。
That was part of Jim's interview today.
他们做得非常好。
They've done a great job.
他们是一家美国公司。
They're an American company.
我们需要他们。
We need them.
我只是不确定我是否要在这里买他们的股票。
I'm just not sure I need to buy them here.
对。
Mhmm.
我不知道，我是说，这引出了供应反应的问题。
I don't know, I mean, it sort of begs the question about the supply response.
这正是让某种东西成为大宗商品的原因。
That's what makes something a commodity.
对吧？
Right?
如果你
If you
有足够的供应
have enough supply
对。
Yeah.
如果他们继续增加工厂，而且
And if they keep adding adding factories and
这取决于需求曲线
Depends on where the demand curve
怎么跟供应曲线对应。
goes to the supply curve.
知道。
Know.
你是不是假设需求曲线真的可以确定地预测？
Are you assuming the demand curve is is actually you can project it with certainty.
这是其中的一部分。
That's a part of it.
对吧？
Right?
这可能就是我不买它的原因。
That's probably why I don't own it.
朱莉·比尔，你怎么看？
Julie Beal, your thoughts.
对。
Yeah.
我是说，有哪个资本开支周期不是周期性的呢？
I mean, name a CapEx cycle that wasn't a cycle.
总会有那么一个阶段，我们建设得差不多了，就不需要再保持同样的建设规模了。
There will be a point where we have a build, and we just don't have to build quite the same level.
我们不知道那个阶段什么时候到来。
We don't know when that is.
但要说这不再是周期性的，因为内存一直是计算机不可或缺的一部分，这说不过去。
But to argue that this is no longer cyclical because it's integral memory has always been an integral part of a computer.
它一直是其中的一部分。
It's always been a part of it.
这取决于竞争对手。
It's a function of competitors.
对吧？
Right?
英伟达在内存方面与其他公司的不同之处在于，你知道，有一段时间他们确实垄断了市场，而且垄断得非常好，以至于他们的客户都开始攻击他们。
What distinguishes NVIDIA from others in memory is that, you know, for a while they really had a monopoly and they had a monopoly so good that it caused their own customers to attack it.
我觉得你不能用同样的方式来论证。
I just don't think you can argue at the same way.
对。
Yeah.
不过我觉得值得注意的一点是，比如陈世煌会告诉你，他们正在调整一些架构，以减少对内存的依赖。
I think it's worth noting though, like, for instance, Chen Shi Huang will tell you they're retooling some of their architecture to rely less on memory.
所以记住这一点。
So just keep that in the back of your mind.
接下来，最后一笔交易。
So Up next, final trade.
回到最后一笔交易，朱莉·迪尔。
Back to the final trade, Julie Diehl.
我喜欢安费诺的持久性和多元化，股票代码是APH。
I like the durability and diversification of Amphenol, aph.
蒂姆？
Tim?
这可不是你父辈时代的联合利华了。
This is not your father's Unilever.
这是一家高利润公司，涉及美容、健康和个人护理，联合利华。
This is a high margin company, beauty, wellness, personal care, Unilever.
凯尔曼，蒂姆，你在哪里？
Carewoman, Tim, where are you?
什么，什么……
What what is
我不说。
I'm not telling.
我不说。
I'm not telling.
看起来不错。
That's fine looking.
好吧。
Alright.
我选的是亚马逊。
Mine's Amazon.
在讨论了沃尔玛之后，我最终选了这个。
After a Walmart discussion, that's where I ended up.
亚马逊。
Amazon.
天哪。
Damn.
对。
Yeah.
根据那个超流动性策略，我们刚和CEO聊过。
Per that hyper liquid strategies, we just talked to the CEO.
那是一家我觉得挺有意思的财务公司。
It's a treasury company I do find interesting.
我觉得你应该在回调时买入。
I think you buy it on pullbacks.
感谢收看《快钱》。
Thanks for watching Fast.
《疯狂金钱》现在开始。
Mad money starts right now.
《快钱》参与者的所有观点仅代表他们个人意见，并不反映CNBC或其母公司或关联公司的观点，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体提前发布。
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them television, radio, Internet or another medium.
你不应将本播客中表达的任何观点视为对特定投资或特定策略的具体诱导，而应仅将其视为一种观点表达。
You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of an opinion.
这些观点基于Fast Money参与者认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性或准确性，也不应以此为依据。
Such opinions are based upon information the fast money participants consider reliable but CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.
要查看完整的Fast Money免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer。
To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事情？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你老板的老板需要什么。
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有多种不同的形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，
Life is short,
要想成就大事，就得敢想大目标。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布尔斯汀主持CNBC的“变革者与权力人物”节目。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.
每周二更新新一期，无论你在哪里收听播客都能找到。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
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