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本节目现场直播于纽约时代广场的纳斯达克交易市场，这里是《快钱》。
Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money.
今晚的节目安排如下。
Here's what's on tap tonight.
就业报告即将公布，数据强劲会不会反而给火热的市场带来不利影响？
Counting down to the jobs report, could a good number actually turn out to be bad news for the red hot market?
这可能会让美联储主席和美联储推迟到七月才加息。
Could have pushed the Fed chairman, and the Fed to July rate hike.
我们来深入讨论一下。
We'll debate that.
还有那些被封为股息王者的股票，连续五十多年持续提高分红。
And knighting some stock royalty, the dividend kings hiking payouts for more than five decades.
现在交易员们最看好哪几只？
Which ones are traders are crowning?
此外，Meta股价飙升，从三月低点反弹强劲，战略方向备受肯定。
Plus, Meta soaring into the clouds, affirms payment pops from its March lows and bold up on strategy.
有分析师认为，这只股票从现在起还有可能上涨近五倍。
Why one analyst sees the stock surging nearly 500 percent from here.
我是梅丽莎·李，今晚为您带来纳斯达克B演播室的现场报道。
I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq on the desk tonight.
今晚的嘉宾有蒂姆·塞缪尔、凯伦·费德曼、博诺、伊森，还有花旗美国股票交易策略主管斯图·凯泽。
Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Bono and Ison and Stu Kaiser, head of US Equity Trading Strategy at Citi.
很高兴你来参加，斯图。
Great to have you, Stu.
我们先来讨论一个问题。
And we start off with a question.
经济的好消息会不会反而让市场紧张？投资者正等着明天七月四日周末前发布的六月就业报告。
Could good news for the economy mean bad news for the markets as investors brace for tomorrow's June jobs report ahead of the fourth of July weekend?
预计新增就业人数为11.5万，失业率维持在4.3%不变。
The numbers expected to show 115,000 increase in jobs with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.3.
与此同时，私人部门薪资增长低于预期，六月仅增加了9.8万个岗位。
This as private payrolls came in lighter than expected, rising by 98,000 in June.
明天的就业数据出炉前，美联储主席沃什今天在葡萄牙的欧洲央行论坛上表示，不愿暗示七月是否会调整利率，但他强调通胀依然过高，而人工智能热潮将对美联储政策产生重大影响。
Tomorrow's jobs data will come after Fed chairman, Warsh, made comments at the ECB Forum in Portugal today declining to hint at any July rate decision, but saying inflation is too high and that the AI boom will have huge implications for Fed policy.
目前市场预计，美联储七月维持利率不变的概率超过七成，九月至少加息25个基点的概率为六成三。
Markets currently pricing in a more than 70% chance of the Fed keeping rates steady at the July meeting, a 63% chance of at least a quarter point hike at its September meeting.
但明天的就业数据，会不会彻底改变这些预期？
But could tomorrow's jobs number change those odds in a major way?
蒂姆，你怎么看？
Tim, what do you think?
他说了不少内容。
Well, he said a lot.
可他本来就不爱多说。
And for a guy that doesn't wanna say a lot.
没错。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
别忘了，美联储这边短期内不会有什么大动作，而人工智能对美联储政策的影响才是关键。
Remember, we're not gonna get a whole lot out of the Fed and and AI massively impacting Fed policy.
表面上看，这似乎有通缩的倾向。
You know, at face value, you can say it's deflationary.
但这里面还有很多复杂因素。
There's dynamics.
上星期我们还讨论过AI带来的通胀，比如内存和苹果公司的情况，但归根结底，焦点还是在就业市场。
I know we had the the AI inflation last week of memory and Apple and what they're doing, but ultimately, the question is really on the jobs market.
正因如此，我觉得美联储最关心的还是这个。
And and so because that's where I think the Fed is gonna be most directly focused.
这正是他们的专长。
That's their wheelhouse.
我喜欢他提到自己对2%的利率并不安心。
I like the fact that he's saying he's not comfortable at 2%.
这关乎美联储重新赢得公信力。
This is about winning back credibility for the Fed.
我不是说美联储没有公信力。
I'm not saying the Fed doesn't have credibility.
有些人觉得美联储之前太过宽松，2%的目标根本没那么重要。
There are some people out there that have felt that the Fed has been way too accommodative that that 2% target doesn't really matter.
听好了。
Look.
如果明天公布的就业数据突然飙升到180万，甚至 worse 到250万，再加上工资涨幅明显，我觉得市场会立刻紧张起来。
In in a short order, if we saw a one eighty or or god forbid a two fifty payroll number tomorrow with some some some higher wages element, I think the markets would get a little skittish.
但我们要说清楚。
But let's be clear.
经济并没有过热。
The economy is not overheating.
如果你得稍微调整政策来摸清现状，而你又是凯文·沃尔什，股市可能不会喜欢这种做法。
Now the if if you have to tick around with policy a little bit to establish where you are and you're Kevin Walsh, Equities probably don't like that.
我觉得今天市场对这条消息有些反应。
I think they traded a little bit on the news today.
要知道，在所有主要央行里，目前美联储的立场是最宽松的。
Remember, of all the major central banks out there, the Fed right now is the easiest.
这是我的看法。
That's my view.
换句话说，欧洲央行已经在六月降息了。
In other words, we had the ECB who cut back in June.
日本央行确实已经降息，而且也暗示未来可能加息。
We had the BOJ who actually, you know, did cut and as indicated they may see, hike.
加息。
Hike.
不好意思。
Sorry.
加息，而且可能还会再加息。
Hike and may hike.
目前来看，在三大央行中，美联储的政策应该是最宽松的。
We're at a case here where I think the Fed of the three is probably got the most accommodative policy.
如果他们真降了25个基点——虽然七月肯定不会这么做——我觉得市场也能接受。
If if they were to go 25, which they're not gonna do in July, I think it would be fine for markets.
但假设利率降幅连25个基点都不到，只是比预期稍高一点呢？
But let's say it's not even two fifty and it's somewhere south of that, but north of expectations.
我的意思是，只要就业数据表现强劲，甚至比预期稍好一点，就足以给美联储提供加息的空间。
I mean, don't we just need if we just saw the jobs market firm and maybe a little bit warmer than expected, that could give the Fed some room to deliver a hike.
没错。
That.
要实施加息，抱歉。
To to deliver I'm sorry.
加息。
A hike.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Yes.
没错。
Yes.
没错。
Yes.
加息。
Hike.
抱歉。
Sorry.
把我给岔开了。
Got me off.
是的
Yeah.
不是
No.
我今天完全搞反了。
I'm I'm on this backwards day.
对。
Yes.
是我的错。
My fault.
我们在说徒步的事。
We're talking hike.
坏消息。
Bad news.
我的意思是，确实如此。
I mean, like, it's yeah.
这全都是
It's all
我们这儿都乱成一团了。
we're all twisted around here.
但我的意思是，这或许能给他们空间说：你知道吗？
But, I mean, it could give them the leeway to say, you know what?
我们可以去徒步，因为我们想这么做。
We can hike because we want to.
我们致力于实现2%的通胀目标。
We're committed to delivering 2% inflation.
是的，我觉得对咱们来说，这双重目标中，现在有一边更关键，对吧？
Yes, I think to me, you know, it has this dual mandate, but to be one side of the dual mandate is heavier now, right?
那就是物价稳定这一块，离目标还差得远，而就业情况已经接近理想状态，相当不错了。
And that is the price stability part, which is further away from where you want it to be, where the jobs picture is much closer and actually right where you want it to be is pretty good.
对。
Yeah.
所以在我看来，通胀这部分重要得多。
So to me, the the inflation part is much more important.
我不觉得会发生什么大事，但我真想多听听关于美联储资产负债表和那些工具的事，今天听得不够细，我还弄不太明白。
I don't think anything really happens, but I am I I wanna hear more about the the Fed balance sheet and those tools, which I didn't get enough enough detail to know.
今天从他那儿听来的。
From from him today.
对。
Yeah.
这个我特别好奇。
That's what I'm very curious.
是的。
Mhmm.
你觉得呢，斯图？
What do you think, Stu?
我认为美联储加息根本不是因为就业问题，一点都不是。
I I mean, I I don't think the Fed's hiking rates because of jobs, full stop.
如果你是股票投资者，就永远别抱怨强劲的就业数据。
And I think if you're an equity investor, you should never complain about strong jobs data.
从股市角度看，好消息就是好消息，没什么好道歉的。
Unapologetically, good news is good news from an equity perspective.
至于这对美联储政策意味着什么，我们当然可以好好讨论一下。
You know, what it does to Fed policy, we can definitely, you know, sort of have a debate about.
几个月前，大家还觉得他会非常鸽派呢。
It's funny that a few months ago, the view was he's gonna be uber dovish.
他一上任就会降息，纯粹为了讨好特朗普。
He's gonna walk in and he's gonna cut just for Trump.
可现在，讨论的方向完全反过来了。
And now now we're having the opposite discussion.
我觉得，过去三到六个月里，大家对人工智能宏观影响的看法已经发生了明显转变。
I do believe the debate around the macro impact of AI has shifted materially over the course of the last three to six months.
六个月前，人们认为AI会推高失业率，带来严重的通缩——因为大规模裁员和招聘冻结；但现在，大家觉得它更可能是推高通胀的，毕竟工业生产和基建投入都大幅增加了。
Six months ago, this was viewed as upward pressure on the unemployment rate and very, very deflationary tokens have got expensive layoffs and pause, now it's viewed as probably inflationary because of the huge industrial production and construction build out.
所以他这么说，认为这会对美联储政策产生重大影响，大概是对的。
So him saying that's gonna significantly impact Fed policy is probably true.
但我觉得我们还不清楚会朝哪个方向发展。
I don't think we know in which direction.
而且我觉得另一点是，美联储加息对超大规模云服务商的资本支出根本不会有任何影响。
And I think the other part of that is Fed rate hikes are gonna do absolutely zero to impact CapEx spending of of the hyperscalers.
所以其实他们也没多大能力去左右这件事。
So I'm not sure that they really have much ability to impact this anyway.
从这个角度看，我觉得这对他们来说可能挺尴尬的。
So I I think it's probably a very uncomfortable situation for them in that sense.
是的。
Yeah.
波诺，在就业数据公布前，你怎么看？
Bono, in your thoughts ahead of the jobs number.
对。
Yeah.
我倾向于支持斯图的观点。
I I tend to be with Stu.
我觉得AI这个说法，其实已经完全反转了。
I think AI, I mean, that that narrative has definitely kind of reversed itself there.
在我看来，除非市场出现巨大且剧烈的波动，否则很难偏离当前的预期。
And I also think you're gonna have to get a very large volatile swing in one direction or the other in order to kind of move markets away from what the current expectations are in my view.
明白了。
Alright.
所以，看来影响真的很小。
So, wow, a lot of no impact.
咱们得说清楚一点。
Well, let's be clear.
经济状况非常好。
The economy is in great shape.
我们刚出了一个PMI数据，制造业那边至少达到了四年来的高点。
We had a PMI number, also manufacturing side that at least is near four year highs.
比上个月稍微弱了一点，但大家觉得这只是提前消费，或者主要是AI带动的。
It was a little weaker than last month, but, you know, everybody thought this was just a big fat pull forward or that a lot of this is AI driven.
我不太确定。
I'm not so sure.
我觉得吧，得给白宫一点肯定。
I think, you know and and I'll I'll give the White House some credit here.
这段时间确实有不少制造业务在尝试或已经开始回流到国内。
I mean, this is there's been a lot of manufacturing that's been either attempted to be, started to be, brought back home.
我觉得这会是一个持续的趋势。
I think it's something that's a trend that's gonna continue.
我们都清楚服务业在经济中更重要，但投入价格这一项大幅下降了。
We all know the services part of the economy is a lot more important, but the prices paid component came way down.
我们知道很大一部分是因为油价，但PMI数据还是不错的。
We know a lot of that was oil, but the PMI numbers were good.
昨天的职位空缺数据也很亮眼。
The jolts numbers yesterday were good.
就业数据啊，斯图说咱们就直话直说吧。
A payroll number, you know, Stu saying, like, let's let's let's call it what it is.
这对股市来说是个非常好的背景，尤其是我们现在的盈利增长。
This is gonna be a very good backdrop for equities, especially with the earnings growth that we have.
而且，说实话，就算美联储态度偏紧，也没那么糟，因为眼下整体政策还是挺宽松的。
And and and, yeah, I mean, if we have a hawkish Fed, that's not great except for the fact that right now, I think things are pretty accommodative.
我觉得市场现在正处于历史高点。
I think markets are at all time highs.
我觉得流动性非常充裕。
I think there's a ton of liquidity.
我觉得就算他们不会这么做，降息25个基点也是完全能消化的。
I think we could take 25 bps even though they're not gonna do it.
好的。
Alright.
好的。
Alright.
关于就业数据和美联储的最新情况，我们来请资深经济记者史蒂夫·李斯曼。
For for more on the jobs picture and the Fed, let's bring in senior economics reporter Steve Leesman.
史蒂夫，我知道你一直在听我们的对话，特别是关于双重使命这一点。
Steve, I know you've been listening to our conversation, and the point that carry me in terms of the dual mandate.
强劲的就业数据可能让美联储能稍微从就业那一侧转移注意力，更多地关注物价稳定，甚至可能让他们更有底气，或者给他们更大的空间来继续加息。
A strong jobs number could afford the Fed to look away from that side of the mandate a little bit more and focus much more on the price stability part and maybe embolden them or give them the leeway to hike more.
我的理解对吗？
I mean, is that a good interpretation?
我们对战争的了解还不够多，所以暂时没法做出那样的解读。
We just don't know enough about wars yet to to have that interpretation.
对。
Yeah.
不过我想补充一点，刚才你们聊的那些内容真的特别精彩。
But but I wanna make one point, which is that everything you guys were talking about, which was a really smart conversation.
我听得挺投入的。
I was enjoying listening to it.
这是个高端的问题。
This is a high class problem.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得我基本同意蒂姆的看法。
And and I think I kinda side with Tim on this.
听好了。
Look.
我们回头看看鲍威尔面临的困境：就业市场可能走弱，而关税和油价又推高了通胀。
Let's go back to Powell and the dilemma that he had between a potentially weakening job market and inflation being brought up by tariffs and then by oil prices.
美联储当时陷入了两难境地，既不能降息，
And the Fed was in this terrible place where it couldn't cut rates.
也不能加息。
It couldn't hike rates.
于是他们试着把利率维持在中性水平附近。
And, you know, it tried to stay a little bit above neutral.
就业市场看起来还算稳健，这个观点。
The idea that the job market seems to be in decent shape.
可能有点过热。
Maybe it's a little hot.
要是明天稍微降温一点，对美联储来说，这其实是个很好的说法：你看，
Maybe it's a little, it cools down a little bit tomorrow is a really good way for the Fed to say, you know what?
我可以专心应对通胀这一边的任务了。
I can focus on the inflation side of the mandate.
我这边没什么问题。
I do not have a problem.
所以你才会听到这种说法。
And so that's what you hear worse saying.
他在谈这么个意思：我虽然没给出前瞻指引，但重申了坚决应对通胀的承诺。
He's talking about this idea of, hey, you know, I'm not giving forward guidance, but he reiterates a firm commitment to deal with inflation.
他说，通胀还是太高了。
He says inflation is too high.
他今天可能稍微缓和了一点，梅丽莎。
He may be leavened it just a little bit today, Melissa.
但如果你看市场对加息的定价，正如你所说，七月加息的概率只有63%。
But really, if you look at the market pricing for rate hikes, they have a 63% probability, as you said, not in July.
为什么不是七月？
Why not in July?
因为我觉得他还在指望油价下跌，能给通胀降降温，而且他强硬的表态本身也可能压低通胀。
Because I think wars is holding out for this idea that oil prices will come down, maybe take some of the edge off inflation, and maybe his tough talk brings inflation down.
所以市场认为，这并不是押注七月加息，而是在为九月可能的加息做对冲。
So that's why the market, I think, is priced not as a bet on a rate hike, but a hedge on a rate hike in September.
嗨，史蒂夫。
Hey, Steve.
我是凯伦。
It's Karen.
谢谢你来参加。
Thanks for being on.
那你觉得，从资产负债表的角度来看，最可能的情况是什么？
So what do you think, is most likely from worse as it relates to the balance sheet?
我觉得他希望逐步缩减规模。
I think he wants to bring it down over time.
很多人对凯文的这个观点并不认同。
There's a lot of people who disagree with Kevin on this issue.
他在这方面一直很坚持。
He's been very consistent on it.
他确实提出了一些有道理的看法。
He makes some good points.
我并不想否定他的这些观点。
I don't wanna take that away from him.
但其实没多少人会说，我现在面临一堆问题，而资产负债表规模是美联储政策中最重要、第二重要或第三重要的事。
But there aren't a lot of people who are sitting around and saying, I got a whole bunch of problems out there, and the balance sheet size is number one or two or three when it comes to Fed policy.
凯文却把它摆在了非常重要的位置，说这是个大问题。
Kevin kind of puts it up there and says, this is a very big issue.
但目前，很多人觉得资产负债表的影响其实挺温和的。
But right now the balance sheet is seen by many as being kind of benign.
我今天听他说的是，别忘了那个老的Parquet广告——别惹大自然。
What I heard him say today is recognizing that remember that old Parquet commercial don't mess with Mother Nature.
别碰资产负债表，这差不多是央行操作的头号或二号铁律。
Don't mess with the balance sheet is kind of like central banking rule number one or two.
过去他们真去动过，比如伯南克随口提了一句。
The times that they've messed with it, Bernanke made an offhand remark.
市场立马就炸了。
The market freaked out.
鲍威尔之前降得太快了。
Powell brought it down a little too fast.
结果引发了一点回购市场的动荡。
Had a bit of a repo scare there.
他今天说得非常清楚：我会慢慢、有意识地缩减资产负债表，而且会和同事们达成一致。
He said today very, very clearly, I'm going to bring it down slowly, deliberately with the agreement of my, of my colleagues.
这意味着他们会确保系统中的准备金水平不低于银行所需，以免引发重大金融动荡。
And what that means is they're going to be very sure that the level of reserves they put in the system is equal to or greater than the amount of reserves the banks need so we don't have a major financial hiccup.
史蒂夫，我是蒂姆。
Steve, it's Tim.
顺便说一句，你提的那个Parquet广告有点过时了。
By the way, you're dating yourself on that Parquet commercial.
我觉得那是七十年代的，大概是1970年左右。
I think it's '7 it was in the seventies.
不过我居然还记得，这说明什么？
Although the fact that I know How could I
帮帮他？
help him?
看看他的表情。
Look at his face.
我怎么可能忘记
How could I not date
我怎么能
How could I
不约会呢？那是黄油还是人造黄油？
not date Is that mar that margarine?
那句话怎么说来着？
What is the phrase?
是人造黄油和黄油之间的对比。
It's margarine versus butter.
我并不是
And I'm not
我没什么好躲的。
I'm not hiding from anything.
那广告挺不错的，而且挺吓人的。
It was pretty good, and they were scary commercials.
不过呢，我想说，说不上吓人的是——你觉得我们有没有，我的意思是，我们特别喜欢听你讲。
But the the the I guess, you know, what's not scary is do you think we have I mean, we love listening to you.
你对美联储的看法总是很敏锐。
You're always very smart on the Fed.
那我们以后会少谈美联储吗？
And and are we gonna be talking less about the Fed?
把话题再拉回来，是不是更糟？
Is is is worse bringing it back?
我们知道他想让美联储少曝光一些，减少透明度，但咱们得说清楚。
And, I mean, we know he wants to bring the Fed, you know, less out there in terms of transparency, But let's be clear.
美联储的政策、每份报告的措辞，到底有没有影响？这才是关键。
I mean, Fed policy, wordsmithing every every report, and and and does it matter, I guess, is what it comes down to.
我觉得你刚才那番话其实已经回答了自己的问题，蒂姆。
Well, I think you answer your question with the last comment you make, Tim.
我觉得我们谈不谈美联储，就看它有多重要。
I think we're going to talk about the Fed as much as it matters.
有时候美联储没那么重要，比如企业盈利高出20%的时候，你们根本不会问我美联储会怎么行动。
There are times when the Fed matters less, when earnings come in 20% above, and you guys aren't asking me, what's the Fed going to do?
因为你现在关注的是盈利，而盈利已经盖过了一切。
Because you're looking at earnings and earnings are trumping everything.
之前有人说过，AI投资根本不在乎美联储做什么，这话其实完全没错。
Whoever earlier said this notion that, AI investment doesn't care one whit what the Fed does is probably a 100% right.
所以这一点不会成为影响因素。
So that's not gonna be a factor.
如果美联储的影响力减弱，市场自然就不会那么关注它了。
If the Fed were to be less powerful, markets would care less about the Fed.
我觉得这种想法有问题，因为这等于说，如果政府不给你想要的东西，那会怎样？
I think that's a flaw in worse just thinking because all that means is if worse doesn't give you what you need, well, guess what?
克里斯·沃勒或者美联储任何一位官员都说过，前瞻性指引会变得更加重要。
Chris Waller and any one of the Fed said, predates will become more significant.
我觉得沃什会在前瞻性指引这件事上扮演重要角色。
So I think that Warsh is going to be involved in the in in in the, I I forward guidance game.
他会告诉我们他真实的想法。
He's gonna tell us what he thinks.
他会引导市场。
He's gonna guide markets.
除非美联储的影响力减弱，否则没人会转移对它的关注，但我看不出这种情况会发生。
And the only thing that will take attention off the Fed is if somehow it's less powerful, and I don't see that happening.
说到指导和沟通，史蒂夫确实提到，下周可能会有关于特别工作组的更多消息，还宣布由马文·金负责美联储沟通特别工作组。
Speaking of guidance and communication, Steve, he did, say that there would be more news about the task force probably next week and then also announced that Marvin King was going to head up the task force on Fed communication.
你能说说，任命一位来自英格兰银行的人加入这个工作组，意义何在吗？
Can you give us sort of what the significance of appointing somebody who is at the Bank of England, to this task force is?
为了澄清一下，这消息来自彭博社的报道。
So just just to be clear, that was a Bloomberg report on that.
我们还没能核实这一点。
We have not been able to confirm it.
我猜这应该是真的。
I I suspect it's right.
我们已经联系了马文·金的办公室。
We've reached out to Marvin King's office.
我们联系了美联储，但他们没有回应。
We reached out to the Fed, got no comment.
我猜这事儿八成是真的。
I suspect that's right.
这事儿挺有意思的，也许你忘了，我再老生常谈一次。
And it's very interesting because if you may not remember this, I'll date myself one more time.
2014年，凯文·沃什受当时英国央行行长马克·卡尼的委托，对英国央行的沟通方式做了一次评估。
Kevin Worsch in 2014 was asked by then Bank of England governor Mark Carney to do a review of the Bank of England's communications.
他确实做了这项工作。
And he did that.
他提出的一个建议是，一年开12次会议没必要。
And one of the things he came up with, you don't need to meet 12 times a year.
一年开8次就够了，沟通还能更精炼、更有效。
You can meet eight times a year, and you can do better and less communication.
所以，这确实是个靠谱的方案。
So that's one of the right answers.
想想蒂姆刚才说的话。
Think to Tim's comment right there.
他们的沟通会很有效，但可能没那么频繁。
They'll be they'll be good communications, but maybe not as much of it.
这一点毫无疑问。
So that's for sure.
美联储以往很少对外聘请人，但像英格兰银行这样的机构却很常见。我觉得这次会是个有趣的过程，会由一个体制外的人来评估美联储的沟通方式。
So the and and and it's not been traditional for the Fed to go outside Even though it's traditional for places like the Bank of England to go outside, I think this will be an interesting process where we'll get a review of communications from somebody not in the system.
这么做有个问题，或者说是潜在的缺点：沃尔什明确表示，委员会成员不会参与这些工作组。
The flaw on that or the potential downside is Walsh was clear that members of the committee will not be part of the task forces.
这意味着，他在推动工作组建议时，可能更难获得内部支持。
So that means it might be more difficult for him to get buy in on the task forces recommendations.
不过，说到减少对美联储的讨论，我们接下来会大量谈论这些工作组。
But talk about talking about the Fed less, we're gonna talk about these task forces a whole lot.
对。
Yeah.
而且还有很多个。
And there's a bunch of them.
史蒂夫，谢谢你。
Steve, thank you.
每次见到你都特别好。
Always great to see you.
史蒂夫·利斯曼。
Steve Leesman.
不客气。
My pleasure.
明天可是个忙日，就业报告要发布了。
Head of a busy day tomorrow with the jobs report being released.
我的意思是，沟通少了点，但质量更高了。
I mean, less communication, even if it's better communication.
可我们早就习惯了美联储的人隔几周就出来讲一次。
But we I mean, we're so used to somebody from the Fed talking like every other week.
有点夸张，但我认为这会带来各类资产更大的波动性。
Exaggerating, but I would think this is more volatility for all sorts of assets.
有可能，但我觉得史蒂夫说得对，如果沃勒什么都不说，那其他愿意发声的人就会抢走所有关注。
It could be, but I think Steve makes the point is that if worse doesn't say anything, then he just gets communicated out of the room by everybody else who's willing to communicate.
所以某种程度上，他不得不出来表态。
So I think to some extent, he's forced to come in there.
我觉得让我印象最深的是，沃勒在第一次记者会上就表示，他想让美联储不再试图去精准调控金融条件或主动干预市场。
Think, I you know, the the key thing that I I was impressed with with worse at the first press conference is he wants to take the Fed away from trying to, like, dial up financial conditions and manage the markets actively.
他认为，这种做法反而会削弱市场本身所体现的群体智慧。
And he believes that that sort of dampens the the wisdom of the crowd that you get from the markets.
我觉得他们真不该以为只要微调一下利率，就能解决所有问题。
And I think they would be very healthy for them to not to think they can just turn the dial a quarter of return and and it does all these things.
所以对我来说，这才是关键所在。
So to me, that'll be the big thing.
这到底意味着什么？
What does that mean?
我觉得美联储减少沟通，反而会让公布的数据变得更加重要。
I think Fed communicating less means the reported data matters all that much more.
所以像明天这样的日子会变得更关键。
So days like tomorrow become more important.
对。
Yeah.
但我并不觉得这会导致更多波动，因为如果每周都有人出来发声，反而可能每周都引发一波波动，而不是像现在这样，隔一段时间才来一次。
I I'm not buying that that means more volatility either, actually, because I think if we have someone come out every week, that could cause some sort of volatility one way or another every single week as opposed to waiting for between, you know, however long it is.
假设他们每季度只公布一次信息。
And let's say they only announced once a quarter.
那我们就只能靠这唯一的一次沟通来了解情况。
That was the only communication we had.
其余时间，就像你说的，我们只能盯着其他所有数据看。
And then the rest of the time, to your point, we just have to look at all the other data.
所以我不认为沟通越少就会导致波动越大，比如要是每小时都发一次声明，那情况才真叫不稳定。
So I I'm not really buying that it that it creates volatility the the fewer let's say the way we're to announce every hour.
那这么做能有什么好处呢？
Would I mean, what what good would that do?
所以在这中间，一定有个合适的发布频率，
So somewhere along the spectrum is the right is the right cadence of how often you
就是该多久做一次。
should do it.
不好意思，我有个问题。
A question Sorry.
不用。
No.
不用。
No.
你请说。
Go ahead.
嗯，一个
Well, a
这个问题我们答不上来，但这正好回到了凯文·沃尔什想推动的核心理念。
question we can't answer, but this gets back to the ethos of where Kevin Walsh is trying to go.
我记得有个人，当年在金融危机时来到美联储，做了很多重要工作，那时候‘扭曲操作’、‘不良资产救助计划’这些词，还有各种缩写，全都是那时候冒出来的。
This is a guy I remember who came into the Fed and had some really prominent work during the financial crisis when things like operation twist and tarp and all this other stuff were, you know, terms acronym central was created.
要是今天美联储的干预再少一点，我们的市场会变成什么样？
Where would we be without more Fed in our markets today?
我们确实没法给出确切答案，但凯文·沃尔什就是希望美联储的干预能少一点。
We we can't get that answer, but but Kevin Walsh wants less Fed.
你不能说，这么多年来美联储的干预对股市没有好处。
And you can't tell me that the more Fed that we've had hasn't been equity positive.
所以从边际上看，我觉得凯文·沃尔什对股市的友好程度，比不上他前面的几位美联储主席。
So so, you know, on on the margin, I think Kevin Walsh is not as good for equities as the preceding couple Fed chairman.
这不意味着世界上的经济基本面会因此改变，但你不能否认，从金融危机开始算，甚至往前推到墨西哥金融危机那会儿，过去三四十年里，美联储的干预力度，比之前任何时期都要大得多。
It doesn't mean that has anything to do to change the economic dynamics of what's going on in the world, but you can't tell me that not only since the financial crisis, but you could go all the way back to the tequila crisis and say, we've had more Fed markets in the last thirty years and forty years than we ever had before that.
而凯文·沃尔什属于老派，信奉的是少干预。
And Kevin Walsh is from that old school, which says less Fed.
与此同时，耐克股价今天上涨了近5%，而昨天我们节目播出后，由于季报发布，股价曾一度暴跌。
Meanwhile, shares of Nike jumping almost 5% today comes on the back of a quarterly earnings report that sent the stock tumbling after hours yesterday during our show.
耐克盘中最低跌了超过10%，但今天它成了道指表现最好的股票。
Nike was down more than 10% at its lows, but today, Nike is the Dow's best performing stock.
那么这次反弹，是不是意味着耐克要翻身了？
So is the rebound a sign Nike could be coming off the bat?
我们得注意，今天的成交量非常大。
We should note this is also on very heavy volume.
耐克的成交量达到了日均成交量的280%。
It was 280% of the average daily volume when Nike shares your shareholder.
所以
So
今晚能接着昨晚的话题继续聊，真挺巧的，因为财报数据其实没那么糟，可我们眼睁睁看着股价一路下滑，一直在等管理层的指引。
It's pretty cool to have this conversation tonight after the conversation we had last night because the numbers weren't that bad, and then we watched this thing cascade lower, and we were waiting for the guide.
但我觉得股价最后跌到了37美元附近。
But I think we got into a low 37 handle.
到这一步，你自己就能算明白了。
So you can do the math at this point.
我的意思是，从盘中低点到盘后交易，股价涨了15%以上。
I mean, this is a a 15% move or more on the intraday low to the after markets.
那到底是什么原因导致的呢？
And what's causing it?
其实吧，我觉得市场已经给出了答案——到底是不是见底了？看股价的反应、今天的成交量，我就不再下定论了，真不想做这种判断。
Well, actually, I mean, I think the the response is that, you know, whether this was the bottom, boy, the markets told you that, the price reaction, the volume today, I'm not gonna make that call because I just don't wanna make that call.
但感觉公司的核心业务确实在好转。
But it does feel like there is a a there is progress with the core business.
中国市场的表现也在改善。
There is progress with China.
我知道这些地方还是很大的问号，可能还没完全解决。
I know that that's those are big question marks that could still be there.
对耐克来说，最大的问题——我昨晚也说过，现在还是这么看——是宏观环境。
The biggest issues for for Nike, and I said this last night, I'll stand by, I think are macro.
他们可不是耐克。
They're not Nike.
运动服饰业务，还有乔丹街头服饰，这些市场都已经饱和了。
It's that the sportswear business, it's that the Jordan streetwear business, I mean, these things are saturated.
人们根本不需要更多这类东西。
People don't need more of this stuff.
我觉得耐克的核心鞋类业务没问题。
I think Nike's core footwear business is fine.
虽然竞争很激烈，可能比以往任何时候都多，但他们还是领头羊。
It's got a lot of competition, maybe more than ever, but they're the top dog.
所以你别想靠这么点小动作就追上耐克。
So I don't think you're you're you're you're chasing Nike by by nibbling here.
顺便说一句，给丹点个赞。
Props to Dan, by the way.
耐克是他最后一笔交易。
Nike was his final trade.
他说，也许正因为太差了，反而成了亮点，至少今天是这样。
He said maybe it's so bad, it's good, and at least for today.
桑切斯先生，
Mister Sanchez, a
这个人一向特别乐观。
guy who's always so bullish.
对什么都看衰，
Down on everything.
这次却看好耐克，结果还真被他说中了。
Was actually up on Nike, and here we are.
波诺，你对耐克有什么看法？
Bono, when your thoughts on Nike?
是的。
Yeah.
他们试图推短裤，明显在盘后交易里下了大力气。
They tried to press the shorts seem like they really tried to press it after hours.
你之前看到那个反抽的尝试了吧。
You saw that reversal attempt earlier point.
要精准判断底部确实很难，但你还是能瞥见一些希望的迹象。
Again, it's it's tough to call a bottom, but you do see some glimpses of hope.
毕竟，你还是得仔细看看DTC和利润率，看起来这次复苏的进程，会比分析师最初预想的要漫长一些。
When, you know, you still wanna scrutinize the DTC and the margins, and it seems like this turnaround is gonna be a little bit more protracted than analysts had initially assumed.
不过，那些空头认输的举动，我不太确定这里面有多少是新进场的，又有多少是空头回补，生怕在这笔交易里被套住。
But, again, that short capitulation, I'm not sure how much of this is new entrants and how much of this is short covering and making sure that you're not you're not caught off sides on this trade.
但我认为，空头的集中平仓，确实是未来价格走强的第一步。
But I do think that short covering capitulation is the first step towards, you know, more positive price action going forward.
你觉得呢，Karen？
What do you think, Karen?
我已经离场了。
Well, I'm out.
我离开有一段时间了。
I've been out for a little while.
价格跟这儿差不多，没太大区别。
Not not price as much different than here.
我基本上已经转向别的了。
I sort of moved on.
你懂的。
You know?
我就是觉得
I just feel like
我花了很多时间
I spent so much time
研究这只股票。
on the name.
结果不太理想。
Didn't work out.
这确实是一家好公司，但我同意Tim关于宏观环境和宏观趋势的观点。
It's a great company, but I I agree with Tim's bigger point about macro and macro athletic.
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你知道吗，我确实持有盖璞的股票，最近两个月它的表现真的很糟糕。
You know, one thing I do own Gap, which has had a really rough go in the last two months.
我觉得他们干脆把这业务拆分出去，让我们自己卖，怎么都行。
I I think they should just spin off, let us sell it, whatever they can do.
这业务虽然小，但已经影响到整个公司的重心了。
It's tiny, but it's part of it is the tail wagging the dog.
其他业务倒是还不错，有些甚至表现得更好。
The rest of the businesses are doing some of them are doing better.
对。
Mhmm.
这纯粹是分心的事。
It's a distraction.
是的。
Yeah.
接下来聊聊Meta，虽然它还沉浸在自己的幻想里，但股价却涨得相当厉害。
Coming up, Meta with its head in the clouds, but it is boosting the stock in a big way.
公司正全力押注云业务，因为AI计算需求持续增长，再加上其支付业务的强劲表现。
The company is pushing to the cloud business as AI compute piles up, plus the firm's payment pop.
股价已从三月的低点大幅反弹，但还能继续上涨吗？
The stock's surging off of its March lows, but can shares continue to climb?
我们一会儿来讨论这个问题。
We'll debate that.
别走开，马上回来。
Don't go anywhere fast.
两分钟后，我们继续谈钱。
Money's back in two.
这
This
这里是CNBC《快钱》节目，主持人梅丽莎·李。
is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
Welcome back to fast money.
Meta股价在公司宣布将打造新的云业务、出售多余AI算力后飙升近9%。
Meta shares surging nearly 9% after the company announced it is building a new cloud business with plans to sell its excess AI computing power.
朱莉娅·博尔森带来了详细报道。
Julia Borson's got the details here.
朱莉娅。
Julia.
梅丽莎，有消息确认Meta正在建设这套AI云基础设施业务，但这其实并不意外，因为马克·扎克伯格去年十月就提过这事，今年五月在年度股东会上又进一步说明，他说‘这几乎每周都会被提上议程’。
Well, Melissa, sources confirm that Meta is working to build out this AI cloud infrastructure business, but this should not be a surprise since Mark Zuckerberg first talked about this last year, in October, and then he talked about it again in a little bit more detail at Meta's annual shareholder meeting, which was in May when he said, quote, it's definitely on the table almost every week.
有不少外部公司来找我们，要么想让我们提供API服务，要么想直接购买我们的算力，价格还愿意比我们采购价高出不少。
There are different companies that come to us from outside asking us to both stand up an API service or asking if we have compute that they could buy from us at some premium to what we bought it at.
扎克伯格任命迪娜·鲍威尔·麦科米克担任公司总裁兼Meta算力部门联席主管，为这项业务打下了基础。
Zuckerberg laid the groundwork for this kind of business when he appointed Dina Powell McCormick as the company's president and co head of its new Meta Compute division.
一旦开展这项业务，Meta将直接挑战亚马逊、微软和谷歌的AI云业务，同时还会向Core Weave和Nebius Group等竞争对手出售原始算力。
Meta would be with this kind of business challenging Amazon, Microsoft, and Google's AI cloud businesses while selling raw compute with rival AI cloud companies, including Core Weave and Nebius Group.
你注意到这两家公司的股价今天都大幅下跌了。
You see both of those stocks traded dramatically lower today.
而Meta在这一天的涨幅接近9%。
And for Meta and its gains on the news day, nearly 9%.
一些分析师认为这能为Meta开辟新的收入来源，但Truist提醒，早在今天之前，就有人认为这其实是个利空信号，意味着Meta的AI项目并未达到预期高度。
Some analysts are bullish on this creating a new revenue stream for Meta, but Truist warns that heading in today, some argue that this would actually be a bearish signal for Meta as it would imply that their AI projects have not lived up to high expectations.
所以这算是一个调整方向，为了应对这些算力问题。
So this is a bit of a pivot to address that and to deal with all that compute.
Melissa？
Melissa?
Karen有个问题。
Karen's got a question.
是的。
Yeah.
Julia，你好。
Julia, hi.
感谢你参与节目。
Thanks for being on.
有个问题想问一下。
Here's a question.
几天前，谷歌说因为需求压力，限制了Meta的Gemini AI使用。
A couple of days ago, Google said they're capping Meta's Gemini AI, due to demand demand strains.
所以我就在想，嗯……
And what so that I was wondering, alright.
Meta是不是想在谷歌那边多买点算力，不管那价格是多少，然后转手以更高的价格卖出去？
Did Meta, was that trying to get more were they trying to get more capacity at Google price, whatever that is, that they could sell for what I assume is a higher price here?
是这个意思吗？
Is that what that was about?
我不确定
I don't
我觉得这未必是主要原因，因为这项业务还没正式推出。
think that's necessarily what that's about because this business has not launched yet.
现在还处于筹备阶段，Meta到底什么时候能上线，目前还不清楚。
This is still very much in the works, and in process, and it's unclear when Meta would actually be able to launch this.
我觉得现在，Meta在为推出自己的产品做准备时，正在使用谷歌的工具来提升自己的人工智能系统。
I think that right now, is deploying as it prepares to deploy its own offering in the market, is utilizing, Google's tools to improve its own AI systems.
别忘了，Meta有大量工程师在使用各种人工智能工具和计算资源，他们一直在投资基础设施，这些都是长期布局。
So remember, Meta has tons of engineers who are using all sorts of AI tools and all sorts of AI compute, And they've been investing in infrastructure which are really long term investments.
很多都是长期投入。
Many of them long term investments.
今年，Meta在资本支出上的花费可能高达1450亿美元。
Meta is going to be spending as much as $145,000,000,000 on capital expenditures this year.
所以，这种基础设施的布局是长远的，目前还没真正落地。
So a lot of this infrastructure play is a long term one that hasn't that hasn't actually happened yet.
明白了。
Alright.
朱莉娅，谢谢。
Julia, thank you.
朱莉娅·沃伦斯坦，这也说明了一点：只要能筹到资金，他们的资本支出水平短期内不会有任何放缓。
Julia Vorsten, what this also tells you is that there's not gonna be any abating in terms of the level of CapEx, I would think, if they can fund it in some way.
但是
But
不过呢，我想补充一点。
but Well, I just wanna add.
我记得迈克在你之前的节目里提到过，这是否意味着Meta终于意识到，我们需要一些财务上的克制之类的？
I do I know Mike said it on your earlier show about is this really a signal of Meta recognizing, alright, we need some financial restraint or something like that.
我觉得这传递了一个更重大的信号。
I think that's a much bigger message.
我觉得，关键是我们得看到实际的现金流。
I think that that, you know, we want to see cash flow here.
对吧？
Uh-huh.
没错？
Right?
所以我们刚才说的这笔巨额资本支出，规模真的太大了。
And so this giant CapEx that we talked about for the most that is just enormous.
如果他们能通过某种方式改善现金流，那就好了。
If they can address that with something that improves cash flow.
所以你是从积极的角度看这件事。
So your glass half full on this.
我是这么看的。
I I am.
但也有很消极的一面
Because there's a big glass half empty
确实有。
There is
来看待整个事情。
way to look at this whole thing.
不。
No.
如果从消极的角度出发，最终能让他们意识到：等等，
If the glass half empty gets you to, at some point, them saying, you know what?
我们以后不会花这么多资本支出的。
We're we're not gonna be spending this much capex Yeah.
以后不会了。
In the future.
但目前来说，
But for
如果他们每个月能进账十亿美元，或者按他们现在的业务增速，那确实可以。
now, if they're pulling in whatever it is, 1,000,000,000 a month, or whatever the the run rate of the business is Yeah.
这么长时间保持这个收入水平，他们也完全负担得起这么高的资本支出。
For that long, they can spend that much on capex also.
Meta效率年，第二部分。
Year of efficiency, to Meta, part two.
首先，这完全符合他们的AI战略。
This this is first of all, this makes total sense with their AI ambitions.
他们并没有放弃AI。
They're not stepping away from AI.
在我看来，这纯粹是关于优化和投资回报率的问题。
This to me is just about optimizing and ROIC.
说实话，我觉得这比表面看起来的分量要重得多。
This is really you know, I I think it's a bigger headline actually than than it may be.
不过从战略角度来说，它确实是一条收入线。
Although, you know, strategically, is a it is a revenue line.
而且说白了，就是这么回事。
And if anything, it's like, hey.
我正看着杰弗里的报告呢。
And I'm looking at Jeffrey's report here.
报告里提到，Meta正在强势闯入超大规模云服务商的圈子。
They they say, you know, Meta's gate crashing the hyperscaler club.
所以真正该注意的是另外那四家。
So it's really more look out the other four.
我觉得这并不是他们的核心业务。
I don't think this is a core business.
我觉得他说得一点都没错。
I do think it's exactly what he just said.
如果你觉得他们没能力提价、没本事提升投资回报率，那你也太天真了。
And if you think that they don't have capacity and ability to mark this up and and and improve ROIC, I think you're crazy.
所以今天涨8%，我已经很满意了。
So I'd I'd be happy with your 8% move today.
我不确定这在短期内会改变整体看法，但我个人觉得事情正在向好的方向发展。
I I don't know that this changes the narrative in the short run, but I think it's my glass is half full.
是的。
Yeah.
你对这些超大规模云服务商整体怎么看？
How are you feeling on the hyperscalers in general?
我一直在思考，从这件事里你能得出什么结论。
I've been looking at I think you take away from this.
瓶颈是真实存在的，而且非常严重，短期内根本解决不了，你必须得掌控它们。
The bottlenecks are real, and they're really long and they're not going anywhere and you have to own them.
这些公司正在想尽办法应对这个问题。
And these companies are trying to get really creative about how to deal with it.
所以对我来说，这至少再次说明了，在未来十二到三十六个月里，这些瓶颈很难解决。
So if anything to me, just kind of reiterates at least for the next, I don't know, twelve, twenty four, thirty six months, these bottlenecks are hard to resolve.
我们的团队预计，明年美国的资本支出将达到一万亿美元，到2030年将增至一万五千亿美元，而这些数字实际可能还会更高。
I mean, our our folks have US public spending on CapEx at a trillion dollars next year, a trillion and a half out to 2030, and you'd have to argue the risks are to the upside of those numbers.
这些瓶颈确实是真实存在的。
So the bottlenecks are real.
资金正在持续投入。
The spending is happening.
人们正在想办法灵活应对。
People are getting creative with how to deal with them.
我觉得这意味着，你可以挑一个你最看好的瓶颈领域。
And I think that just means pick your favorite bottleneck.
我们看好电力基础设施，但不管你选哪个瓶颈，都值得布局。
We like power gen, but pick your favorite bottleneck and own it.
这又是一个进入这个瓶颈的玩家，但正如你之前在电话会议中提到的，其他超大规模云服务商今天股价反而上涨了。
I mean, it's another player, though, with supply into this bottleneck and yet the other hyperscalers, to your point earlier on our conference call, they didn't they they went higher today.
你注意到Nebius和Core Web在这方面的价格下跌了，尤其是在通用云计算这个层面。
I mean, you saw Nebius and Core Web go down, on that front in terms of the the sort of the commodity aspect of of cloud compute.
但对于超大规模云服务商来说，这根本算不上什么威胁。
But for the hyperscalers, it's not seen as a threat in any fashion.
不是眼下这个情况。
Not this particular thing.
对。
Yeah.
我意思是，最近超大规模云服务商遇到的问题，其实是令牌价格大幅下跌。
What I mean, what's happened to the hyperscalers recently is this idea of the price of tokens and how much that's fallen.
没错。
Mhmm.
所以，你得换一个瓶颈来看。
So so you want a a different bottleneck.
你可以从台积电和阿斯麦开始，没错。
You could start at TSMC and ASML and Yeah.
再往下梳理。
Work your way down.
我觉得，某些瓶颈环节的企业其实挺值得投资的。
Somewhere along the line, I think the bottlenecks are good to own.
不过，我并没有持有任何美光的股票。
I don't own any Micron, though.
我想做个专题，聊聊斯图的电力生成瓶颈。
I wanna do a segment on Stew's power gen bottlenecks.
好啊。
Yes.
我们可以做这个。
We could do that.
我的意思是，这听起来挺有意思的。
I mean, that sounds interesting.
是的
Yeah.
我们提供量子服务。
We Quantum serve.
我们提供
We deliver
这个选项。
that option.
你需要周转。
You need turnover.
真是令人钦佩。
God love it.
接下来我们接受点播。
Coming we take requests.
接下来，作为支付领域的公司，股价从52周低点强劲反弹。
Coming up, firm and focus as a payment player doubles off its 52 week low.
股价还能继续冲高吗？
Can shares keep charging higher?
我们马上来讨论这个问题。
We'll debate that straight ahead.
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You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq Market site in steamy Times Square, 100 degrees here.
广告后马上回来。
Back right after this.
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条款细则适用。
Terms and conditions apply.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
Affirm的股价已经回升至一月份的高点。
Affirm shares climbing back to their January highs.
这家金融科技公司从三月的52周低点飙升了近100%。
The fintech company surging nearly 100% off their fifty two week low in March.
花旗的分析师将该股的目标价从100美元上调至115美元。
Analysts at Citi hiking price target on the stock to a $115 from $100.
Karen，你之前就提醒过这只股票。
Karen, you flagged this.
你手里有持仓。
You're in this one.
是的。
Yes.
说实话，这波行情真是跌宕起伏。
I mean, it's been kind of a wild ride.
对啊。
Yeah.
从很多方面看，它和我们之前分析过的某些产品很像，比如信用卡，虽然我知道这其实不一样。
It it in many ways, it mirrors some of the other ones we've looked at sort of credit cards, which I know this is different.
它们本身并不承担债务。
They don't carry the the debt.
有些公司会承担一部分债务，有些则不会，它们通过向对冲基金出售证券来筹集更多资金用于放贷。
A firm does carry some and not others, and it's and it sells securities to hedge funds and to have more money to to lend.
我喜欢这个模式，我觉得油价下跌对消费者来说是好事。
So I like it, I like I think the oil price coming down is very good for the consumer.
而且我觉得，这现在已经成为一种很主流的购物方式了。
I also think it's just the I mean, this is a a popular way to buy now.
至于每两周一次的还款，或者分成四次、每次付2.02美元的分期方式，没有利息，我觉得对一些人来说，这确实是更聪明的付款选择。
And for the for the, you know, every two week payment, the 4 $2.02 week payments, four of them, where there isn't interest, I I think that's just a smarter way for some people to to manage their payments.
所以我对这个领域挺看好。
And so I like the space.
年初的时候它还很高，后来一路跌到了42。
It was here at the beginning of the year and went all the way down to 42.
现在又涨回了年初的水平，好像什么事都没发生过一样。
Now it's back up to the very beginning as if nothing has happened at all.
但我还是持有多头仓位。
And yet, I'm still long.
我确实喜欢这个领域，不过现在价格远没有当初那么便宜了。
I do like it though, but this this it's get it is not nearly as cheap as it was.
波诺在吗？
Bono in?
在的。
Yeah.
感觉有点紧张。
It feels a little stressed.
我的意思是，当一个公司经历了近五成的跌幅，紧接着又业绩超预期、上调指引，而且运营利润率据我所知接近30%，这确实不简单。
I mean, when you have essentially a 50% drawdown and then a beat and raise, I mean, they came out with pretty strong operating margins, I believe, just south of 30%.
我觉得这为它接下来的价格走势奠定了基础。
I think it sets up for the type of price action that they've had.
所以在这方面，我没什么好争的。
So there's not very much for me to argue there.
到目前为止，它已经基本完全收回了之前的全部波动。
It's really now at this point in time that it's recaptured, essentially, all of that round trip.
再投这一美元，真的值得吗？
Is it worth, you know, investing the incremental dollar?
我对这一点确实有疑问。
And I I do question that.
福特的私募股权投资是一回事。
The Ford PE is one thing.
另一点是，我觉得沃尔玛已经从Affirm换成了Klarna。
The other is, I believe Walmart switched from Affirm to Klarna.
所以我开始怀疑这些供应商关系，会不会像矿井里的金丝雀一样，暗示它们其实没那么稳固，不像看涨者说的那样。
And so I just start to question some of those vendor relationships and whether or not that might be the canary in the coal mine in terms of those not necessarily being as strong as bulls might argue.
接下来，股票即将迎来royalty行情。
Coming up, stocks ready for royalty.
这家公司因为连续五十多年提高股息，被称为股息之王。
The company is being deemed dividend kings after hiking payouts for more than fifty years.
当热钱回流时，这些股票名称立刻成了交易员关注的焦点。
The names are traders are igniting when fast money returns.
热钱？
Fast?
无论何时何地，随时收听我们。
Catch us anytime on the go.
关注《Fast Money》播客。
Follow the Fast Money Podcast.
广告后马上回来。
We're back right after this.
欢迎回来，《Fast Money》节目，股市在下半年开局走低。
Welcome back to fast money stocks kicking off the second half in the red.
今天交易中，道指创出新高，但收盘时几乎没动。
The Dow hitting a fresh all time high in today's session, but ending the day virtually flat.
标普指数微跌约百分之零点二五，纳斯达克则下跌超过百分之零点五。
The S and P with a small loss down about a quarter of a percent, and the Nasdaq falling more than half a percent.
但标普和纳斯达克本周都有望创下自七月以来的最佳表现，涨幅达百分之一。
But the S and P and Nasdaq both pacing for their best weeks since gold since gold started in July with a gain of 1%.
我觉得这里少了个词。
I think we're missing a word there.
不过今年到目前还是下跌了近百分之六。
But still down nearly 6% for the year.
原油价格收于每桶69美元以下。
Crude oil settling below $69 a barrel.
WTI原油在2026年至今仍上涨了近百分之二十。
WTI still up nearly 20% in 2026.
请注意，请注意。
Meantime, hear ye, hear ye.
请全体起立，欢迎 dividend kings 上场。
All rise for the dividend kings.
股息之王们在哪呢？
Where are the dividend kings?
这些是《巴伦周刊》最近点名的公司，它们连续至少五十年每年都提高股息。
Well, these are stocks that Barron's recently highlighted as companies that have raised their annual dividends every year for at least the last fifty.
五十年。
Five zero.
没错。
That is right.
整整五十年。
Fifty years.
上榜的公司超过五十家，包括宝洁、家得宝、可口可乐和奥驰亚。
There are more than 50 companies that made the list, including Procter and Gamble, Lowe's, Coca Cola, and Altria.
所以我们想问问交易员们，他们心目中谁才是真正的股息之王。
So we thought we'd ask for traders who they would crown as their dividend king.
凯伦，你先来。
Karen, start us off.
我知道你们不一定是为了分红才投资的。
And and I know that you guys don't necessarily invest for dividends.
明白。
Okay.
但这个筛选标准本身还挺有意思的，对吧？
But this is just sort of an interesting screen in terms of Right.
能连续五十年坚持提高分红的公司，真不多见。
Who can continue raising the dividend for that long.
嗯，正如你刚才说的，
Well, okay.
分红其实只是次要的，根本不是主要驱动因素。
As you prefaced it, yeah, I the dividend was really, really, really the tail wagging the dog.
不过确实很了不起。
Still an impressive.
坚持五十年做任何事都不容易。
You could do anything for fifty years in Yeah.
这确实很了不起。
A That is impressive.
但对我来说，短期来看，这终究是快钱。
But to me, in the short term, it is fast money after all.
我选了劳氏，因为我相信住房法案会通过。
I I I chose Lowe's, and the reason is I do think the housing bill will pass.
我知道这不会立刻带来大量新增住房供应，但我认为，如果真能实现，市场会对这种趋势做出反应，预期会有越来越多的住房建成。
And I know it won't be a quick fix to get so much more new supply, but I do think the market's reaction to if that happens and the expectation of more and more homes being.
这对家得宝和劳氏来说都很有利。
So this is great for a Home Depot and a Lowe's.
所以是劳氏。
So Lowe's.
劳氏已经连续65年提高股息了。
Sixty five years of dividend increases for Lowe's.
我都不知道劳氏已经存在65年了。
I didn't even know Lowe's was here for sixty five years.
我知道。
I know.
这很有趣。
It's fascinating.
这份名单真有意思。
It's a fascinating list here.
冯恩，你的偶像是谁？
Vonuen, who is your king?
我的偶像就是约翰尼·约翰。
My king is Johnny John.
简单来说，如果我要拿钱去投资分红股票，我最关心的就是这个分红能不能一直稳住。
And, really, the the quick explanation is if I am going to be deploying capital for dividends, my primary concern is making sure that that dividend is in fact going to remain intact.
所以我不是光看估值来判断。
So I'm not looking at based on valuation.
也不是光看增长指标之类的因素。
I'm not looking based on growth metrics, things of that.
显然，这家公司的复合增长率能达到中 teens 水平，但它是一家业务多元化的医疗科技和制药企业，收入来源也很分散。
Clearly, you do get a mid teen, compounder here, but it's a it's a diversified med tech and pharma company that has diversified revenue streams.
它是许多投资组合里的大型蓝筹股，而且说实话，很多投资组合对医疗板块的配置都偏低。
It's a massive large cap in a ton of portfolios, and quite frankly, a lot of health care is underweighted, within the portfolio.
所以，它可能看起来慢吞吞的、没什么激情，但我一点都不担心它的股息会中断。
So it's slow, boring, if you will, but I'm not worried about this dividend going away.
如果我投资是为了股息，那我必须确保明天它还在。
And if I'm gonna invest for the dividend, I wanna make sure it's there tomorrow.
实际上，昨天它的股价刚创下了历史新高。
It actually hit a fresh all time high just yesterday.
蒂姆，我们刚才在聊这个。
Mean, Tim, were talking about
它。
it.
强生的阴霾正在逐渐消散。
A lot of the clouds clearing off of Johnson and Johnson.
我认同约翰逊这个投资。
I'm with this Johnny John.
顺便说一句，你做得不错。
Good for you, by the way.
我是买家。
I'm a buyer.
斯图尔特，你有什么看法？你觉得它的核心价值在哪？
Stuart, do you you have a a king or what's your theory about?
说实话，我觉得这跟波诺那边的情况差不多。
Honestly, I it's similar to Bono's side.
如果我现在要投资，我更看重股息。
I think if if I'm gonna invest in this right now, I'm gonna invest in dividends.
我觉得股息还会增长，老实说，我可能会选公用事业板块。
I think they're gonna grow, and frankly, you know, I'd probably go into utilities.
我之前提过电力生产，你买它就是冲着股息去的。
You know, I mentioned power gen before you're getting the dividend.
你可能会看到这一块，尤其是电力生产和人工智能建设相关的领域，出现一些净资产收益率的扩张。
You're probably going to get some, you know, some ROE type expansion, you know, for that part of the market related to power gen and the AI build out.
所以那张清单里我没看到任何公用事业股，但我觉得这种模式挺靠谱的——既能蹭上市场的主流趋势，又能拿到大约2.7%的股息，我觉得很合理。
So I didn't see any utilities on that list, but I think that type of story where I'm I'm getting a little juice from the prevailing theme in the market, plus I'm clipping a div of, I think, about 2.7% for that sector, I think makes a lot of sense.
这不差。
It's not bad.
蒂姆，你的王牌是什么？
Tim, your king?
奥驰亚。
Altria.
奥驰亚是我长期持有的王牌，它给我的感觉就像一家公用事业公司。
Altria has been my king for a long time, and and it and it feels like a a utility.
大家总在说烟草行业在衰退，可他们实际做的，是不断告诉市场：衰退没你想的那么快，而且定价能力还在提升。
And and it also feels like all we do is talk about the decline of the cigarette industry, and all they do is continue to talk about less of a decline than you thought and price realization that changes.
最终，它的市盈率大概在12倍左右，股息收益率接近6%，但这本身并不是买股票的理由。
And and ultimately, a multiple that around 12 times forward paying almost a 6% dividend yield, not the reason to go buy a stock.
但正是这一点让我持有这家公司，因为它的盈利非常稳定。
But it is a reason why I own this company that I think has very predictable earnings stream.
过去五年，我看到他们的每股收益年均增长在2%到6%之间，我觉得这正是市场预期的水平。
And and I'm, you know, I'm seeing anywhere from kinda two to 6% EPS growth over the last five years, and I think that's kind of where they're modeling out.
所以我非常喜欢这只股票。
So I like this name a lot.
他们还用非香烟业务的现金做了不少有意思的投资，我对这个股息前景非常有信心。
I think they've done very interesting things with how to invest some of their non cigarette cash as well, and I feel great about this, DIV.
明白了。
Alright.
接下来，我们将讨论一个被视为比特币替代品的新兴看涨策略，它在六月暴跌后正试图反弹。
Coming up, a new bull call on strategy as a bitcoin proxy looks to bounce back after its brutal June drop.
这位分析师认为，股价可能从当前水平上涨500%。
The analyst thinks there could be a 500% increase from current levels.
稍后当《快速金钱》节目回归时，他会与我们连线。
He'll join us next when Fast Money returns.
欢迎回到《Fast Money策略》。
Welcome back to Fast Money Strategy.
今天股价反弹了7%，但过去一个月还是跌去了三分之一以上。
Catching a bid today bouncing 7%, though it's lost more than a third of its value over the past month.
本周早些时候，比特币储备金推出了它的数字资本框架，以增强在加密货币波动中管理资产负债表的灵活性。
Earlier this week, the bitcoin treasury unveiled its digital credit capital framework, giving it more flexibility to manage its balance sheet amid crypto volatility.
这一举措让我们的下一位嘉宾更加坚定了对这只股票的看涨观点。
It's a move which has our next guest doubling down on his bull case for the stock.
马克·帕尔默是基准石溪公司的高级分析师。
Mark Palmer is a senior analyst at Benchmark Stonex.
他给予该股买入评级，目标价高达每股570美元。
He's got a buy rating and a street high price target of $570 a share.
马克，很高兴你今天能来。
Mark, great to have you with us.
谢谢邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
现在股价离570美元还差得远呢，这目标也太高了吧。
$570 seems nuts from where the stock is right now.
那你认为怎么才能实现这个目标呢？
So what do you how do you see getting there?
其实没那么难。
It's really not all that difficult.
明白了。
Okay.
当然，这部分也需要比特币价格有所上涨。
Now part of that, of course, we do need to see some appreciation in the price of bitcoin.
没错。
Right.
这不用多说。
That goes without saying.
但我们的资本结构设计得很灵活，只要比特币年底能从六万美元涨到九万五，离我设定的目标价就差不多了。
But Strategy's capital structure is set up so that if we do see a move, let's say from 60 ks to 95 ks at the end of this year, then we're going to be well on the way to achieving the price target that I laid out.
为什么这么说？
Why is that?
因为这个策略本质上是对比特币的杠杆投资，好坏都跟着它走。
Because Strategy is effectively a levered play on bitcoin for good or ill.
最近的情况显然不太妙。
And I think what we've seen of late has been for ill.
但情况可能很快逆转，要么是宏观环境改善，有利于比特币价格上涨，要么是监管政策发生变化。
But that can switch very quickly, either due to improving macro conditions, ones that are more conducive to bitcoin's price being higher or regulatory changes.
我们还在等《清晰法案》，这项法案将为美国的加密货币建立监管框架，目前还在参议院等待投票。
We still have the clarity act, would create a regulatory framework for crypto in The US before the US Senate still has to come to a vote.
如果这个投票真的举行，而且有可能在七月进行，那可能会给比特币带来明显提振，进而带动策略的表现。
But if that vote does occur and there's a possibility it could happen in July, we could see a real boost for bitcoin and by extension for strategy.
谢谢。
Thanks.
感谢你参与这次对话。
Thanks for being on.
我不是看空比特币的人。
I'm not a I'm not a bitcoin bear.
我早就跟进了。
I've been along for a long time.
但是
But
那说到你提到的5.70美元，其中有多少是净资产值的上涨，也就是你所说的大幅变化部分？
So but to get to address your $5.70, how much of that is a NAV appreciation that we we you know, has changed dramatically?
现在这更多不是净资产值的上涨。
It's not so much an NAV appreciation at this point.
实际情况是
The reality is
我是说那个溢价。
I mean, the premium.
抱歉。
I'm sorry.
这个溢价。
The premium.
再说一遍，关键并不在于你所提到的那些，因为评估数字资产储备公司时，通常看的是MNAV，也就是净资产价值的倍数。
Again, you know, it's not really about you know, because when you look at the way in which digital asset treasury companies are measured, it's typically on what's known as MNAV, which is a multiple of the net asset value.
目前，这个指标下的策略估值大约在1.07左右。
Right now, strategy is down at about, you know, one point o seven in that measure.
我不认为MNAV本身会成为推动因素。
I am not, expecting that MNAV, itself is going to be the driver.
如果比特币价格上涨，那么公司现有的比特币持仓才是真正的推动力。
If the price of bitcoin were to appreciate, then the company's existing bitcoin holdings would be the driver.
所以，如果比特币价格上扬，这家公司的策略目前处于非常有利的位置。
So strategy is just in remarkably strong position if we were to see an increase in the price of bitcoin.
这家公司本周早些时候的举措，应该能缓解市场对其资本策略的担忧，尤其是关于其用于主要融资渠道、购买更多比特币的永续优先股Stretch。
The moves that the company made earlier this week should alleviate some of the concerns about its, capital strategy, particularly with regard to stretch, which is the perpetual preferred stock that it is using as the primary means the richest raising capital to buy more bitcoin.
因此，通过回应投资者的顾虑，他们重新增强了这一工具的吸引力，把它的股息率从11.5%提升到了12%。
So bringing confidence back to that instrument, particularly by addressing investor concerns, they pumped the dividend rate on that instrument from 11 and a half percent to 12%.
更重要的是，他们把专门用于支付该工具股息的现金单独隔离出来了。
More importantly, they ring fenced the cash that has been set aside, a cash reserve specifically to address the dividends on that instrument.
所以如果你以12%的收益率买入，那确实不错。
So if you're buying it for 12% yield, that's great.
只要你相信这些股息能按时发放，现在投资者就能更安心了，因为这笔钱已经专门划拨出来，不会挪作他用。
As long as you're comfortable that those dividends are going to be paid, now those investors can be more comfortable that they will be because the cash has been set aside and ring fenced.
嘿，马克。
Hey, Mark.
对我来说，这部分让我有点困惑，我总觉得我脑子不够用，因为这事儿看起来明明很简单。
I guess, part of this for me is I I really don't feel like I'm smart enough to understand this because it just seems simple.
对这家公司来说，风险是不对称的。
There's asymmetric risk for strategy.
如果比特币涨到九万美元，那就太好了。
If if if bitcoin goes to 90,000, that's great.
所以我实际上是在持有一种杠杆化的比特币。
So I own a levered bitcoin.
但如果比特币跌到四万美元呢？
But what happens if bitcoin goes to 40,000?
对我来说，我只是想弄清楚，到底是30%的上涨空间更大，还是30%的下跌风险更可怕。
So, I mean, to me, the I'm just trying to understand where there's more upside on a 30% upside or more downside on a 30% downside.
所以这看起来就是……
So it it just seems
对我来说，真正让我更担心的，是他们资产负债表里自带的杠杆，而不是比特币上涨可能带来的收益。
to me, again, the leverage inherent in their balance sheet scares me more now than ever rather than the upside of an upside moving bitcoin.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得，正是因为对这种策略感到不安，公司才推出了现在的计划。
I think in the the concept of being scared by strategy, I think, is a lot of the reason why the company rolled out the plan that they did.
这部分是为了回应投资者对优先股的担忧，但你也能看到这个计划的后三个部分。
Again, part of it was about addressing investor concerns as it pertains to the stretch preferred in particular, but you also saw the last three parts of that plan.
其中一项是让公司有灵活空间来回购优先股。
One was giving the company the flexibility to buy back stretch.
如果他们有一十亿美元，就可以买回这些股票来支撑价格。
If they've got a billion dollars, they can buy that back to support its price.
他们现在已预留了十亿美元，用于回购或已授权回购普通股。
They've got a billion dollars set aside now where they could buy back or an authorized, where they could buy back their common stock.
最后，公司首次正式将政策明确为：必要时可出售最多12.5亿比特币，以支持公司运营。
And finally, the company for the first time has officially made it the company's policy that it can sell up to 1,250,000,000 of bitcoin if it needs to to support its corporate activities.
所以我认为，你看到的是这家公司战略在成熟、在进化，让自己有能力应对比特币价格下跌，而不是被动承受损失。
So what you see, I think, is strategy maturing as a company, evolving as a company, and putting itself in a position that if you do see declines in the price of bitcoin, the company doesn't have to just sit there and absorb the impact of that.
它可以通过实际行动，让自己处于更有利的位置，最终也让股东受益。
It can actually take corporate actions that will put it in better position and ultimately put shareholders in a better position.
目前比特币的平均买入价是多少？
Where are we in terms of the average price of bitcoin where that strategy has bought at?
是的。
Yeah.
我们现在是浮亏状态，大概亏损了160亿美元左右。
We're underwater right now, you know, just the tune of something like $16,000,000,000.
但我认为关键在于，比特币价格得跌到大约八千美元，并且长时间维持在这个水平，公司才可能面临无法履行义务的真正困境。
What I think is crucially important though is that the price of bitcoin would have to drop to something around $8,000 and stay there for an extended period of time before the company would be any in any quote unquote trouble in terms of being able to address its obligations.
所以，公司拥有极大的灵活性，这完全是因为它持有了大量比特币，必要时可以动用。
So what you have is a tremendous amount of optionality that's been preserved simply because the company has so much bitcoin that it can dip into if it needs to.
对的。
Uh-huh.
而且，董事会最近还批准了其他一系列应对工具。
And it also has all of these other tools that its board recently authorized.
这确实是一个根本性的优势。
I mean, that's a fundamental case.
就算跌到八千，但在那之前，股价早就已经承受巨大压力了。
I mean, dipping down to 8,000, but there's gonna be a lot of pain in the stock well before 8,000 is reached.
那只是最极端的情况。
Well, that's that's an extreme case.
我说的是最极端的情形。
You know, I'm addressing the extreme case.
现在的情况是，任何人在关注这些工具时，都会先想弄清楚潜在的风险，再考虑收益。
We're now to a point where anyone who's looking at these instruments is gonna wanna understand their downside before they look at their upside.
收益方面，自然会有机会。
The upside could take care of itself.
至于比特币升值，我们可能还会看到《清晰法案》带来的立法推动。
In terms of, you know, a bitcoin appreciation, again, we could see a legislative catalyst with the clarity act.
但大家真正关心的是，这会不会像2022年5月那次算法稳定币崩盘的Terra Luna事件？
So what people wanna understand though is, you know, is this, you know, we've heard people say, is this another Terra Luna type of situation where you saw the collapse of an algorithmic stablecoin back in May 2022?
Luna直接归零了。
Luna went to zero.
没错。
Right.
就像我之前说的，把我们的策略跟Terra Luna比，简直就像拿闪电和萤火虫比。
You know, as I have said, you know, comparing strategy to Terra Luna is like comparing lightning to a lightning bug.
两者完全不是一个概念。
They are completely different.
Strategy 拥有真实资产作为其工具和股票的支撑，这能为它提供所需的所有流动性。
Strategy has real assets supporting its instruments and ultimately supporting its stock, and that can translate into as much liquidity as they need.
我们到底在说什么？
What are we talking about?
这家公司持有的比特币价值高达510亿美元。
The company has 51,000,000,000 in value in its bitcoin holdings.
没错。
Right.
它每年的股息义务大约是17.6亿美元。
Its annual dividend obligation is about 1,760,000,000.
我们到底在担心什么？
So, you know, what are we talking about?
他们手头有大约26亿美元的现金，专门用来支付股息，如果需要，还可以卖出部分比特币来维持这个支出。
They've got 2,600,000,000 or so of cash sitting there specifically to address dividend obligations, and if they needed to, they could sell some bitcoin to keep doing that.
是的。
Yeah.
这根本不是一个要归零的公司故事。
That is not a story of a company that's going to zero.
这是一个在保留选择空间的公司故事。
That's a story of a company that's preserving optionality.
马克，很高兴和你交谈。
Mark, great to speak with you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
当然。
Of course.
回报。
Returns.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
Welcome back to fast money.
沃尔玛今天收盘下跌近4%。
Walmart closing out the day down nearly 4%.
这只股票已经连续第六天下跌，当时跌幅接近9%，自今年五月见顶以来累计下跌超过18%。
The stock posting its sixth straight day of losses, down nearly 9% at that time, falling more than 18% since its peak this year in May.
发生什么事了，凯伦？
What happened, Karen?
你怎么看？
What do you think?
我怎么看？
What do I think?
我觉得最主要的原因是股价太高了。
I think the main thing that happened, it was too expensive.
对。
Mhmm.
这确实是个大问题。
That is a big thing.
当时股价在1.40美元左右。
So in the $1.40 range.
而且我一直是多头。
And I I'm long.
我持有多头很久了，甚至可以说，如果你当时在收盘价买入，那也是一样的。
I've been long for a really long time, including at well, you know, if you went home long, it's the same as bought at the closing price.
这次跌幅确实很大。
So this is a really big move down.
蒂姆的塔吉特表现得相当不错。
Tim's t the t and Tim's Timbo Target doing very nicely.
我不太确定。
I don't know.
我确实看好沃尔玛。
I do like Walmart.
我觉得他们一直在做正确的事。
I think they're doing all of the right things.
我觉得问题主要出在估值上。
I think the valuation part was the overwhelming problem.
我还是觉得，不管顾客怎么表现，他们的定位都非常好。
I do still think there's they're very well positioned no matter how the customer does.
贝诺亚？
Benoit?
对。
Yeah.
说实话，我同意凯伦的看法。
I mean, I tend to agree with Karen.
我觉得这只股票很不错。
I mean, I think it's a great stock.
如果你看看他们沃尔玛Plus之类的业务，问题在于高利润板块还没成为收入的主力。
I mean, if you look at, you know, some of their Walmart plus businesses, the issue is the that higher margin segment still doesn't make up the bulk of their revenue.
再加上一些关税带来的不确定性。
And then you have some of the tariff overhang.
但抛开这些不说，当初股价对应47、48倍市盈率的时候，对于一家增长没到20%、波动性又不高的公司来说，确实太贵了。
But all of that aside, I really think when it was at 47, 48 times Ford, it's just tough for a name that doesn't grow at 20% and that has a beta that's relatively muted.
所以我觉得这更像是一次价格重置，而不是大规模抛售，我可能会考虑在这里重新进场。
So I think this is more of a price reset as opposed to a significant sell off, and I'd likely be looking for a reentry point around here.
要说估值，确实很难反驳，毕竟沃尔玛在技术上投入了这么多。
It's it's hard to argue with the valuation because everything else Walmart's done, they've made a lot of investment in their technology.
这本质上是个利润率提升的故事。
It is a margin expansion story.
所以也是市盈率扩张的故事，只不过之前已经涨过了。
Therefore, it's a multiple expansion story, but it had that.
我觉得现在是资金在轮动。
I think there's rotation.
大家确实一直在买塔吉特。
I think people absolutely were buying Target.
也明显在回流到家居装修类股票。
I think they absolutely were rotating back into some home improvement.
这两者之间有很多重叠。
There's a lot of crossover there.
家得宝的价格跌得挺厉害的。
Home Depot got really cheap.
我觉得沃尔玛除了那次变动，本身没什么问题。
I I think it there's nothing wrong with Walmart other than that move.
接下来是最后几笔交易。
Up next, final trades.
最后交易时间到了。
Final trade time.
买入波诺。
Bono in.
摩根大通。
JP Morgan.
斯图。
Stu.
我要买XHP。
I'm gonna XHP.
蒂姆·博
Tim Bo.
今晚咱们一起看美国男足比赛吧。
Let's go USA men's soccer tonight.
不错。
Nice.
咱们出去吧。
Let's go out here.
凯伦。
Karen.
对。
Yes.
所以，好吧，我和邦德·温在摩根大通那边不是对立的。
So, okay, I'm not on the opposite side of where Bond win is on JPMorgan.
我确实看好摩根大通。
I do like JPMorgan.
不过，在摩根大通财报发布前进行操作，我向来不太喜欢，所以我选择卖出摩根大通的看涨期权。
However, running into earnings with JPMorgan is never something that I like, so I'm selling JPMorgan upside calls.
好的。
Alright.
现在正式开始《疯狂金钱》节目，主持人是吉姆·克莱默。
Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now.
《疯狂金钱》节目嘉宾所表达的观点仅代表其个人意见，并不反映CNBC或其母公司及关联机构的立场，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布。
All opinions expressed by the fast money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium.
大家不要把节目里表达的任何观点当作具体的投资建议或策略指引，它仅仅是一种观点的分享。
You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of an opinion.
这些观点基于《快钱》节目参与者认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司并不保证信息的完整性和准确性，因此也不应将其作为绝对依据。
Such opinions are based upon information the fast money participants consider reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
如需查看《快钱》节目的完整免责声明，请访问cnbc.com上的fastmoney免责声明页面。
To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward /fastmoney disclaimer.
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Buy the dip and save on CNBC Pro.
立即访问 CNBC Pro，仅需 59.99 美元，即可获取 2047 年全球三大直播的市场动态与独家访谈，详情请访问 cnbc.com/joinCNBCPro。
20 fourseven access to market moving news and interviews across three global livestreams for fifty nine ninety nine at cnbc.com slash join CNBC Pro.
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Terms and conditions apply.
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