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NFL开赛时间到了。
It's NFL kickoff time.
周三，迈克尔·奥扎尼安带来独家NFL球队估值。
Wednesday, exclusive NFL team valuations from Michael Ozanian.
周四，CNBC体育频道现场直播NFL在澳大利亚的首场比赛，嘉宾是总裁罗杰·古德尔。
Thursday, CNBC Sport live from the NFL's first ever game in Australia with commissioner Roger Goodell.
周三开始，锁定CNBC。
Starts Wednesday, CNBC.
我们现在在纳斯达克和纳斯达克市场现场，位于纽约市时代广场的中心。
Live from the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq market site in the heart of Times Square right here in New York City.
这里是《快钱》节目，今晚的内容如下。
This is Fast Money, and here is what's on tap tonight.
全球债券遭到抛售，收益率飙升至2008年以来的最高水平。
Bonds around the globe selling off, sending yields to their highest level since 2008.
利率的这波上涨会不会让这里和全球的股市涨势受阻？
Could this March higher in rates stall the rally in stocks here and all around the world?
我们来讨论一下这个问题。
We will debate that.
另外，苹果的新任CEO受到了投资者的热烈欢迎，还发了一条推文。
Plus Apple's new boss getting a very warm welcome from investors, also sending out a tweet.
在股市整体下跌的一天里，这只股票却逆势上涨。
The stock climbing on a decidedly down day for stocks.
他们现在的当务之急是什么？
What are the top priority?
针对新任CEO约翰·特尼斯？
For new CEO John Turnis?
我们会请一位顶级分析师，稍后还会深入解读戴尔最新的财报数据、伊朗新罢工引发的油价飙升，以及图表大师带来的最新看跌股票名单，看看他建议你们卖出哪些。
We will ask a top analyst and later inside the numbers of Dell's latest earnings, the surge in oil following new strikes in Iran and the chart master with the new list of bullish to bear stocks that he thinks that you should sell.
我是弗兰克·霍兰，梅丽莎·李正在NASDAQ演播室B为您现场直播。
So I'm Frank Holland in from Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B right here at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight.
布拉克斯顿·沃斯、前述的蒂姆·西摩、丹·内森和盖亚达尼。
Braxton Worth the aforementioned Tim Seymour Dan Nathan and Gayadani.
我们以新的一月开头，有人说这夏天还是老样子。
We begin with a new month with what some would say is kind of just the same old story this summer.
债券收益率继续攀升，不仅在这里，全球都是如此，而油价再次上涨，因为美国今天发动了新的空袭。
Bond yields continuing their march higher, not only here, but all around the world, and oil prices climbing yet again as The US launched fresh air strikes today.
稍后会有更多关于美国军事行动的报道。
More on The US military action in just a minute.
美国十年期国债收益率升至去年一月以来的最高水平，而日本的十年期国债收益率则升至1996年八月以来的最高点。
The rate on The US ten year climbed to levels not seen since last January, while in Japan, their ten year climbed to heights not seen since August 1996.
更短期的两年期收益率也触及三十一年高位。
The shorter term two year yield also hitting thirty one year highs.
今天欧洲也突破了多个里程碑。
Milestones today were also breached in Europe.
英国十年期国债收益率触及2008年六月以来的最高水平，而德国十年期国债收益率则升至2011年以来的高点。
The ten year gilt hitting its highest level since June 2008, while Germany's ten year boon rose to twenty eleven highs.
股市对债券抛售的反应正如你所预料的那样。
Stocks reacting as you would expect to the sell off in bonds.
纳斯达克下跌了1%。
The Nasdaq down 1%.
道琼斯和标普500也都下跌了大约0.75%。
The Dow and the S and P each lower by about three quarters of a percent.
那么，这种缓慢下行的趋势会持续到本周，甚至更久吗？
So can we expect this kind of slow grind lower to continue through this week, maybe even beyond?
盖伊，你来回答这个问题。
Guy, I turn to you.
如果债券市场继续这样恶化下去，弗兰克，再次欢迎你，我认为这个问题的答案是肯定的，而且是坚决的肯定。
If the bond market continues to deteriorate that way, Frank, and welcome once again, I think the answer to that question is an emphatic yes.
我认为市场终于开始对全球收益率走势做出反应了。
I think the market is finally reacting to this global yield story.
你提到了日本，我们在节目里已经讨论了好几个月，甚至更久，现在债券市场在恶化，收益率在上升。
And you mentioned Japan, which we've been talking about now seemingly for months, if not longer on this show, and you have a bond market deteriorating, so yields going higher.
同时日元也在走弱，现在又回到了1.60以上。
You have a currency that's weakening as well, now back above $1.60.
顺便说一下，这是在财政部和日本央行两三周前联手干预日元汇率之后发生的。
By the way, this is in the wake of a concerted effort by Treasury and the Bank of Japan two and a half or three weeks ago to sort of intervene on behalf of the yen.
显然，这并没有起作用。
Clearly, that's not working.
所以，是的，确实存在问题。
So, yeah, there are problems.
我认为全球范围内都存在这些问题。
I think there are problems globally.
也许美国这边的问题没那么严重，但是，你知道，十年期国债收益率在4.8%，这可不是闹着玩的，弗兰克。
Maybe we don't have as much a problem here in The United States, but, you know, 480 in the ten year is nothing to sort of shake a stick at, I think, Frank.
丹？
Dan?
对，我们之前到过4.8%，昨晚也稍微聊过这个。
Yeah, we've been there in the 480, and we talked about it a little bit last night.
你知道，一年前、两年前、三年前，我们就在4.75%的水平。
You know, we were at $4.75 a year ago, two years ago, three years ago.
现在标普500指数是77，或者说7600点。
The S and P 500 is 77 or 7,600 right now.
去年这个时候是6000点。
Last year at that point, it was 6,000.
前年是5000点。
Year before, it's 5,000.
再前一年是4000点。
Year before, 4,000.
我想补充的一点是，现在股票的风险溢价非常薄，对吧？
I guess the issue I would add is that the equity risk premium right now is razor thin, right?
只有20个基点，所以如果我们进入一个你认为收益率可能大幅上升的时期，你觉得所有这些干预措施其实反映了某种——我不知道，用“恐慌”这个词合适吗——但它并没有让人安心，那么你会想，标普500指数很容易就会回落一些。
It's 20 basis points, and so if we are going to a period where you think yields could go materially higher, you think that all this intervention really speaks to some form of, I don't know, panic is the right word, but it's not instilling confidence, then you say to yourself, well, the S and P 500 could easily come in a bit.
它从历史高点已经下跌了2.5%左右。
It's down 2.5% or something from the all time highs.
我还想提一点，你知道，加上战争、油价、中期选举，真的没有太多让人乐观的理由。
I'd also throw in there that, you know, with the war, with oil, with the midterm elections, there's not a ton to get that optimistic around.
我是说，是的，有些公司的盈利确实好得离谱。
I mean, yes, some of these corporate earnings have been, you know, off the charts.
但问题是，面对这么多不利因素，他们还能继续这样增长吗？
But the question is, given all these headwinds, can they continue to grow like that?
而且增速放缓会是什么样子，尤其是如果AI需求回落的话？
And what is deceleration look like, especially if you have a pullback in AI demand?
我知道刚才说了很多，但我觉得把这些都放在一起看，你会觉得现在不是买股票的好时机。
So I know that was a lot, but I think you put them all together and you say to yourself, I don't think it's an amazing environment to buy stocks right here.
好的。
Alright.
说得有道理。
Fair point.
蒂姆，轮到你了。
Tim, coming over to you.
对。
Yeah.
嗯，我觉得你把这加到AI建设带来的动态里，我们看到发行方面有压力。
Well, I I I think you add that into the just the dynamics around AI build out where we are seeing pressure in terms of issuance.
在长期端，投资级投资和全球主权债券之间存在完全的竞争。
There's complete competition for investment grade investments at the long end against sovereigns around the world.
这不仅仅是像我们说的，弗兰克，你在节目开头指出的，这是一个全球性的动态。
This isn't just so as we're saying, and you pointed out at the top of the show, Frank, this is this is a global dynamic.
这是一直在发生的事情。
This is something that's been going on.
特朗普政府想指出，实际上他们并不是在卖美国债券去买其他国家的债券。
The Trump administration wants to point out that actually they're not selling US bonds to to buy others.
事实上，其他债券市场在下跌，而美国表现更好。
In fact, other bond markets are selling off and The US has outperformed.
我不确定这是相对表现更好。
I'm not sure it's a relative outperformance.
我确实认为这是一个相对更好的故事，但很明显，全球各国政府在赤字支出方面更关注战略定位、国防、能源以及其他需要花钱的事情。
I do think it is a relative better story, but I I it's clear that governments around the world in terms of deficit spending are a lot more focused on strategic positioning, defense, energy, and things that are gonna cost some money.
所以我觉得资本支出的趋势不会变。
So I don't see the capex dynamic changing.
我看不出它会变。
I don't see it changing.
明年我们在AI资本支出上会投入1.3万亿美元。
We're gonna spend a trillion 3 next year in terms of AI capex build out.
我觉得通胀的情况还是会很复杂。
I think the inflation story continues to be complicated.
油价和收益率之间的关系，我们都清楚。
The correlation between oil prices and yields, we know what it is.
对我来说，这确实意味着，你知道，股市凭什么不需要歇一歇呢？
It it is just to me, it does set up for a place where, you know, why wouldn't equities need to take a pause?
哦，再加上一个事实，猜猜看，今天已经是九月了。
Oh, and throw in the fact that, guess, it it is today is September.
而且我今天才知道，九月啊，哥们，是因为我把车停在街上了，还以为没事呢。
And I learned you know, I learned today with September, guy, is because I parked my car in the street, and I thought I was good.
我等到了可以停车的时间，然后回来发现车上贴了罚单，这才意识到我的年检过期了。
I waited for, like, the time when I the window I can actually park there, and I came back, and there's a ticket on my car, and I realized that my inspection had expired.
所以我的车，从八月底开始，就需要重新做年检了。
So my car actually, as of the end of August, I need a fresh inspection.
我知道这大概是个尴尬的时刻，
I know that's probably a dime moment,
但是不。
but No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
这真是件倒霉的事。
That's that is one of those unfortunate things.
对。
Yeah.
所以，总之，今天是九月的第一天。
So, I mean, anyway, today's the first day of September.
如果我当时意识到这一点，我就会去做检查了。
Had I realized that, I would've gotten my inspection.
也许现在正好有做检查的人在听节目。
Maybe there's an inspection owner watching right now.
他们会很乐意帮你把车开走，替你完成检查。
They'll be more than happy to pick your car up and inspect it on your behalf.
你知道，我们一边琢磨这个，一边让卡特来聊聊现在的债券市场。
You know, we'll ponder that while Carter answers and talks about the bond market right now.
卡特，在我们试着解决蒂姆的车的问题之前，先交给你来说说吧。
Carter, wanna toss it over to you while we try to figure out Tim's car First,
蒂姆，欢迎加入这个俱乐部。
Tim, welcome to the club.
我的车七月底就到期了，我一直拖着没去办。
Mine expired at the end of July, and I've been push pushing it around.
我是说，希望如此，但我确实有一个。
I mean, hoping, but I got one.
这就是世界的运作方式。
This is how the world works.
如果你不按时完成，就会有后果。
If you don't meet a deadline, there are consequences.
不管怎样，我觉得，从股票市场的角度来看，因为某种程度上，人们交易股票比交易美国国债更多，当然不是全球范围内，国债市场规模是三倍，但就这个节目和人们的个人账户而言。
In any event, I guess, from the point of view of the equity market, because, in a way, it is the thing that people trade more, than The US treasury market, not globally, of course, treasury market is three times bigger, but, for purposes of, this program and people's PAs, a personal account.
我们知道，从五月中旬到七月中旬，我们一直处于异常狭窄的区间，5%的区间在战后时期只有六到七次，标普指数在这么窄的区间内交易。
We know we've been in an unusually tight range mid May to mid July, a 5% range is only six, seven instances in the postwar period where the S and P traded in a tight range.
然后我们有了某种突破，当然，然后我们又回吐了涨幅。
Then we had this breakout of sorts, of course, and we've given that back.
所以现在我们回到了五月中旬的位置，市场没有个性。
And so here we are where we were essentially in mid May and the and the the market has no character.
但底层个性很强，之前死气沉沉的股票大幅反弹，从看空转为看多，软件股到处都是，而之前的赢家却在回落。
There's great underlying character, huge recoveries in heretofore dead stocks, bearish to bullish reversals, software all over the place, and then heretofore winners rolling over.
但总的来说，股市相当平稳，没什么波动，原地踏步。
But it all nets out as an equity market that's quite benign, dull going nowhere.
至于利率，关键就在于变化的速度。
As to rates, it's all about rate of change.
我觉得这个现象已经被充分证明了，谁都知道。
I think that's as well documented a phenomenon as anyone.
如果从现在到周五，利率升到5.05%，那我觉得股市肯定会受到真正的冲击。
Were we to go to five, five zero five between now and Friday, it would be, I would say, inevitable that you'd have a real shock to the equity market.
如果只是慢慢往上爬，到11月才到那个水平呢？
Were we to continue to just meander up there and get there by November?
5.05%，我觉得没人会在意。
05/2005, I don't think anybody would care.
当然，别忘了，三年前的10月底，也就是2023年10月底，我们曾经略高于5%。
Remembering, of course, that we were slightly above five exactly three years ago in October, late October of twenty twenty three.
那个
The
自那以后，标普指数几乎翻了一番。
S and P has almost doubled since then.
对。
Yeah.
你知道，我们聊到债券市场的时候，经常提到股市在八月份和劳动节那一周交易清淡。
You know, while we're talking about the bond market, we don't we often talk about the equity market being thin trading during August, the week four holiday.
那这对债券市场也有影响吗，丹？
Does that also impact the bond market, Dan?
我的意思是，我们是不是应该关注这一点，就是市场参与者比平时少的情况？
I mean, is that something we should be looking at, the idea that there aren't as many participants in the market as there normally would be?
对。
Yeah.
毫无疑问。
No doubt.
但我觉得股市的疲软可能跟收益率关系不大，你们可能有不同意见。
But I'd say that the equity weakness has probably less to do with yields, and you guys might disagree.
实际上，油价上涨了5%，在过去大概一个月到一个半月的时间里，市场环境一直很平稳，没什么大的新闻。
And really what happened with oil up 5%, it's been a really benign environment when we had some headlines over the last, you know, sub I don't know, month, month and a half or so.
但这次波动很大，说明原油市场的问题不是流动性不足或参与者少。
But this is a big move, and it kinda indicates this is not about lack of liquidity or lack of market participants, what's going on in the crude market.
所以可能跟债券市场有关。
So maybe it is as it relates to, the bond market.
好的。
Alright.
我们来深入聊聊这些债券的变动。
Let's take a little bit deeper into these bond moves.
现在来到我们演播室的是美银高级美国利率策略师梅根·斯威伯。
Joining us now right here on set is BofA senior US rate strategist, Megan Swiber.
梅根，欢迎来到我们的节目。
Megan, welcome to the desk.
谢谢你们的邀请。
Thanks for having me on, guys.
好的。
Alright.
所以你正好接上了我们刚才聊的话题。
So you're kinda jumping in right where we're having this conversation.
你现在对收益率怎么看？
What is your take on yields right now?
全球来看，收益率都在上升。
Globally, they're higher.
是的。
Yes.
美国表现相对较好，但债券市场整体出现了相当广泛的抛售。
The US is a relative outperformer, but we've seen a a pretty broad sell off when it comes to bonds.
对。
Yeah.
这绝对是全球性的广泛现象。
It's it's definitely broad global.
我们在美国利率上看到的一个大头，是围绕美联储政策的不确定性。
A big part of what we see in US rates is a combination of uncertainty around Fed policy.
你知道，我们刚才提到，我们正在讨论油价。
You know, we just noted, and we're talking about oil prices.
理论上，美联储不应该太担心这个，因为那影响的是整体通胀，而不是核心通胀，上周五他明确表示关注的是2%的核心通胀。
In theory, the Fed shouldn't be too worried about that because that feeds into headline inflation, not core inflation, which outlined, Friday last week that he's focused on 2% core inflation.
但美联储过去五年一直没达到这个目标。
But the fed has been missing this target for the past five years.
在七月的新闻发布会后，鲍威尔发出了非常含糊的信号，这种围绕美联储政策的不确定性一直在给整个收益率曲线带来压力。
Washed delivered this very wishy washy message following the July press conference, and that buildup in uncertainty around Fed policy has been weighing on yields across the curve.
我们有巨额赤字。
We've got large deficits.
财政部也意识到了这一点，正在努力采取措施解决，而且我们还有大量的投资级供应，以超大规模发行形式出现。
We've got a treasury that is aware of this and trying to take steps to address it, and we've got tremendous amounts of IG supply coming in the form of hyperscaler issuance.
好的。
Alright.
你可能觉得他在七月之后有点含糊其辞，但在杰克逊霍尔，我觉得他对我和大多数人都显得相当明确。
You may have thought he was kinda wishy washy after July, but at Jackson Hole, he seemed pretty definitive, I think, to me and to most people.
那照你这么说，周五的就业报告对美联储和债券市场都没有影响了吗？
And with what you're saying, does that mean the jobs report coming up on Friday has no factor on the Fed and no factor on the bond market?
所以他整顿了一下，真正让市场重新聚焦于政策利率作为主要工具，重新聚焦于2%的核心PCE作为美联储关注的指标，并且明确表示如果达不到这个数字，他们就得加息，这对市场来说都是好事。有趣的是，我们确实看到三十年期债券因为这个消息而上涨，因为这在某种程度上恢复了政策确定性。
So he cleaned up the act and really refocused the market on policy rates as the primary tool, refocused on that 2% core p c e as the as the gauge that the Fed's looking at, and really outlined that if they're not getting to that number, they're gonna have to hike, which is all good things for the market, and interestingly enough, we did see the bond, the thirty year rally on that message because it did restore to some extent that policy certainty.
至于周五的就业报告，听着，如果你用自然语言处理模型分析他的讲话，它会告诉你美联储现在真正关注的是通胀。
In terms of jobs report on Friday, look, if you feed speech through an NLP model, it would tell you that the focus on the fed from the fed right now is really on inflation.
所以除非九月份的报告非常疲软，也就是说周五的就业数据极其糟糕，否则它不会对我们的九月加息定价产生太大影响。
So unless September is really a very weak report that that excuse me, that the payrolls report is extremely weak on Friday, it really won't move the needle much for our pricing for for a September hike.
我们在美银预计会加息一次，而且我们认为下周晚些时候公布的通胀数据将为加息扫清障碍。
We're expecting one at BofA, and we think that the inflation data that we'll get the end of next week will will clear the way for that.
我们昨天听说财政部和美联储意见一致。
We heard yesterday the treasury and the fed are on the same page.
我不太相信他们真的意见一致，我们还谈到了美元兑日元回到1.60以上等等这些情况。
I'm not convinced that they are, and we talked about dollar yen back above $1.60 and all those different things.
这会影响吗？
Does that come into play?
你正在关注这个。
You're looking at that.
是的，我觉得这里有几件事需要记住。
So, yeah, I I I think that there's a couple things to keep in mind here.
过去几周我们看到，美联储和财政部都采取了措施来稳定债券市场，尤其是收益率曲线的长端。
So what we've seen over the past couple weeks is both Fed and Treasury to take steps to stabilize the bond, the back end of the yield curve.
贝森几周前宣布，将长期回购规模至少翻倍，这减少了市场在长端需要吸收的供应，也减少了与AI超大规模发行者的竞争，因为很多投资者更愿意投资这些公司，而不是借给政府三十年。
Besson, a couple weeks ago, announced the doubling or at least the doubling of these long end buybacks, which is reducing the supply that the market has to absorb at the back end, less competition with the AI hyperscaler issuance that we're seeing out there that a lot of investors are preferring over lending to this government for thirty years.
这是支持美国利率曲线长端的一个好步骤，而且莫尔斯传递的信息也更有说服力，重新让市场聚焦于2%的通胀目标，这些都是好事，也确实支持了两者之间更多的协调。
That was one good step to help support the long end of The US rates curve, and again, this message that we got from Morsch, delivering more of that credible messaging, re anchoring market to focus on 2% inflation as as the as the primary goal, all good things, and and does support a little bit more of this coordinated message between the two.
梅根，客户那边怎么样？
Megan, how about clients?
我们可以随便说基本面，但你有投资级客户、主权债券，这些真正关注利率的人。
So we can say all we want about fundamentals, but the the you have investment grade clients, sovereign bonds, so folks that are really rates oriented.
他们是不是在针对大幅上涨采取保护措施？
Are are they taking out protection against a move significantly higher?
也就是债券市场的突破。
So a breakout of the bond market.
正如卡特指出的，你知道，我们一直在震荡。
As as as Carter pointed out, you know, this has been we've been drifting.
对吧？
Right?
但现在实际上正在加速。
But this actually is picking up momentum.
我只是有点好奇，市场在准备迎接债券真正突破方面处于什么状态，以及最终你是怎么给客户建议的。
I'm just kinda curious where the market is in terms of preparing for a real breakout in bonds and and and ultimately, how you are advising people.
是的。
Yes.
所以，我们倾向于做陡峭化曲线交易。
So, we are we are favoring a curve steepener.
所以我们更倾向于持有曲线中段的久期，而不是长端。
So, preference for more belly duration versus the long end of the curve.
我很喜欢曲线中段的久期，
I love belly duration,
顺便说一下。
by the way.
对吧？
Right?
我不知道曲线中段久期是什么意思。
I don't know what belly duration means.
我觉得你只是……我开玩笑的。
I think you just, I'm kidding.
抱歉。
I'm sorry.
我
I
我也不知道那是什么。
don't know what it is.
你解释一下呗。
Explain that for second.
那我们来想想这个问题。
So let's think let's think about this.
对吧？
Right?
那什么是5年30年的利差交易？
So what's a what's a $5.30 steeping?
就是说你在五年期这个点上操作。
It means that you're going along the five year point.
然后拿三十年期来对冲。
You're selling the thirty year point against it.
现在这个买家群体，美国利率曲线长端需求不多，所以这样布局是对的。
Positioning right for more of this buyer base that we see right now, there's just not a lot of demand at the back end of The US rates curve.
从历史上看，确实，我们有这些固定收益养老金，它们需要接触特定数量的长期久期，但想想我们现在所有养老金的结构是怎样的。
Historically, right, we've had these defined benefit pensions that have a specific amount of long end duration that they that they have to access, but think about how all of our pensions are structured right now.
不幸的是，我们中几乎没有人真正拥有固定收益养老金。
Unfortunately, none of us really have defined benefit pensions.
我想也许美联储那边还有几个人有，但这确实不是现在养老金市场的主要部分，这减少了对美国利率曲线长端的需求。
I think maybe a couple people back at the Fed still have one, but, it's it's really not a big part of the pension market right now, and that has reduced demand at the long end of The US rates curve.
这减少了对全球长端曲线的需求。
It's it's reduced demand for long end curves globally.
财政部意识到了这一点，他们很可能会像他们一直在做的那样，将更多的发行转移到曲线的中段。
Treasury is aware of this, and they're very likely to shift more of their issuance into the belly of the curve as they've as they've been doing.
但确实，你知道，有趣的是，尽管我们看到了这些行动，但并没有真正奏效，我们并没有看到很多对后端反弹的追逐。
But it's really, you know, interesting that despite these actions that we've seen, doesn't take, worse take, we're not getting a lot of chasing of any of the rally in the back end.
对。
Yeah.
相反，我们确实仍然看到资产管理公司对后端非常谨慎，而且更多的故事是偏好从信用中获得的整体收益率，而不是购买国债。
Instead, we do do still see asset managers very wary of the back end, and it's been a story of much more of a preference for all in yield that you can get from credit rather than, buying treasuries.
好的。
Alright.
梅根·斯威弗说，短期国债和中期国债才是重点。
Megan Swivver says bills in the belly.
现在市场的热点就在那里。
That's where the action is right now.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
很高兴见到你。
Great to see you.
也很高兴见到
Good to see
你。
you.
另外，别忘了明天早上8点15分在《Squawk Box》收看纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯的独家专访。
And a program you know, don't miss an exclusive interview with New York Fed president John Williams tomorrow at 08:15AM on Squawk Box.
你可不想错过那个。
You do not wanna miss that one.
现在来看油价，在美国对伊朗目标发动新一轮打击后，油价飙升至7月以来的最高水平。
Wanna turn oil now surging to its highest level since July after The US launched fresh attacks on Iran targets.
WTI原油大涨超过5%，收于每桶90美元以上。
WTI spiking more than 5%, settling above $90 a barrel.
布伦特原油现在接近95美元。
Brent now just shy of $95.
CNBC的Eamon Jabbers正在报道美国和伊朗的最新动态。
CNBC's Eamon Jabbers has developing story on The US and Iran.
Eamon？
Eamon?
是的。
Yeah.
Frank，没错。
Frank, that's right.
我们看到美国和伊朗之间现在来回进行了这些打击。
We've seen these strikes now back and forth between The United States and Iran.
伊朗说这是对美国今天东部时间中午左右发动的打击的报复。
Iran saying it was retaliating for US strikes which happened at about noon eastern time today.
我想给大家展示一下这个地区的地图。
I want to show you a map of the region.
我想我们准备了一张约旦城市亚喀巴的示意图。
I think we have a graphic prepared of the Jordanian city of Aqaba.
这是一个战略上非常重要的城市，现在有美联社的报道说，在约旦南部的这个城市上空看到了爆炸。
It's a strategically important city and we're seeing reports now from the Associated Press that there are explosions that have been seen over the city in Southern Jordan.
它正好位于亚喀巴湾的顶端，而亚喀巴湾本身又在红海的顶端，战略上很重要，因为如果要绕过霍尔木兹海峡，为石油运输开辟另一条从中东出来的路线，这个城市会是其中的一部分，而且这里也很可能看到美国。
It's right at the tip of the Gulf Of Aqaba which is itself at the tip of the Red Sea, strategically important because that city would be part of any effort to bypass the Strait Of Hormuz in terms of another route out of the Middle East for oil traffic and it also would be a place where you might likely see U.
军
S.
事活动。
Military activities.
弗兰克，我们现在看到美联社的报道说，约旦南部城市亚喀巴上空出现了爆炸，伊朗表示这是对今天早些时候美国空袭的报复。
So we are seeing now this report from the Associated Press, Frank, that explosions have been seen over that southern Jordanian city of Aqaba, and Iran says it is retaliating for The US strikes earlier today.
所以我们要等待官方确认具体造成了哪些破坏，无论是那里还是该地区其他地方，等局势明朗后，还要等五角大楼和白宫给我们一些下一步走向的指示，弗兰克。
So we'll wait on any official confirmation of exactly what damage has been done there or elsewhere in the region as the dust settles and we wait for the Pentagon and the White House to give us some indication of where this goes next, Frank.
交给你了。
Over to you.
好的。
Alright.
阿蒙·贾里斯带来美伊紧张局势的最新消息。
Amon Jarris with the very latest on The US Iran tensions.
阿蒙，非常感谢。
Amon, thank you very much.
丹，我想请你来说说。
Dan, I wanna come over to you.
谈谈你对能源领域的看法。
Just thoughts on the energy sector.
我们一直在聊这个话题。
We've been talking a lot about it.
就是能源方面的上涨行情，不少股票最近都创了五十二周新高。
Just kind of the upside moves when it comes to energy, a number of names actually hitting fifty two week all time highs recently.
对。
Yeah.
你知道吗，我就想说一句。
You know, I just one comment.
别管这些家伙，他们比我更懂股票。
Forget these guys know the stocks much better than me.
我只是在想原油那边的情况。
I I just think about what's going on with crude oil.
我们一直说这是暂时的。
We keep saying that's transitory.
现在油价远低于最糟糕时期的高点，但WTI在90美元，布伦特在94、95美元，这对经济压力很大的消费者来说，影响还是很大的。
It's much lower than the levels when the worst started, you know, but $90 WTI and 94 or 95 in in Brent, there's just a lot of reverberations as it relates to a consumer that is strapped.
而且你想想通胀的累积效应。
And you think about these cumulative nature of inflation.
我的意思是，这就是关键。
I mean, that's the thing.
你知道，我们一直在说美联储没达到2%的目标。
You know, we talk about the Fed missing that 2% target.
如果你是那个为食品价格上涨、汽油价格上涨、柴油价格上涨而焦虑的人，这些价格正在渗透到整个经济中，即使通胀率是3.1%或3.3%，这也是很难受的。
If you are the one who have a lot of stress about higher food prices, about higher gas prices, about diesel, just kind of working all its way through our economy, This is a hard one, even if you have 3.1 or 3.3 sort of inflation.
所以再说一遍，我不站在那个阵营。
So again, I'm not in the camp.
我不是经济学家。
I'm not an economist.
我也不是策略师。
I'm not a strategist.
我只是觉得，如果美联储现在加息，那反应也太快了，我会很震惊。
I'd just be shocked if the Fed raises interest rates right now being that reactionary.
但在我看来，重点应该放在消费者身上。
But to me, think the focus should be on the consumer.
而且不仅仅是那个总体数字。
And it's not just that headline number.
而是那个较低的通胀率累积起来的影响，以及他们正在感受到的那种效应。
It's the cumulative nature of that lower K and the effect that they're feeling.
那么，卡特，想听听你的看法。
So, Carter, want to come over to you.
我还想提到瓦莱罗能源，股价创历史新高。
I also want to mention Valero at all time highs.
XLE ETF盘中触及高点。
The XLE ETF hit an intraday high.
马拉松石油也在创历史新高。
Marathon Petroleum also trading at all time highs.
所以我们看到石油板块出现了大幅上涨。
So we are seeing big upside moves in the oil sector.
对。
Right.
所以这是回升到高点。
So it's a recovery back to a high.
我们当然知道，能源板块之前涨得非常猛，而且没有回调，后来在传出和平或冲突解决的消息时，下跌了大约18%。
We know, of course, that energy had pushed incredibly steep and uncorrected, and then dropped some 18% when there was reported peace or resolution to the conflict.
现在我们已经收复了那些跌幅，刚刚超过了四月份的高点。
And now we've recouped those losses and just now exceeding the highs of April.
但有些股票已经相当超买了。
But there are certain stocks that are quite extended.
那三家炼油公司，PSX，
The three refiners, PSX,
就是
that would
菲利普斯、瓦莱罗和MPC，马拉松，这三家占了15%的权重。
be Phillips, Valero and MPC, Marathon, they represent 15% weight, those three.
这三只股票的交易价格都比华尔街卖方目标价高出10%以上，而且根据我们的分析，它们属于卖出评级，因为它们远远高于150日移动平均线。
All three are trading 10% or more above their respective Wall Street sell side targets, and they are sells by our work because of how far they are above their one hundred and fifty day moving averages.
不过，它们所在的整个板块刚刚勉强创出小幅新高，而且种种迹象表明，这个板块可以继续上涨，不受VLO、PSX和MPC表现的影响。
The sector overall, which they are a part though, again, has only just now eked out slight new highs, and there's every indication that the sector can go higher independent of what VLO, PSX, and MPC do.
盖伊？
Guy?
它们确实涨过头了。
They're extended.
卡特说得完全对。
Carter's absolutely right.
而且，你知道，我不确定你现在是否一定要追高，但我要告诉你，能源安全现在已经成为全球每个国家最优先考虑的问题，这使得能源市场发生了结构性变化，所以我认为你不必关注原油价格。
And, you know, I don't know if you're necessarily chasing here, but I will tell you that energy security is now first and foremost on the minds of every country on the planet right now, which makes this a structural change in the energy market, which is why I don't think you need to focus on the price of crude.
你需要关注的是这些股票，它们现在处于历史上从未有过的位置，这不是夸张。
You need to focus on these stocks that are in a position now that they've never been in historically, and that's not hyperbolic.
我就看看SLB，也就是以前的斯伦贝谢，这家公司是一家科技公司。
And I I just look at an SLB, formerly known as Schlumberger, and this is a company that's a technology company.
这家公司非常前沿，他们不仅帮助主权国家和石油公司找到更多石油。
It's a company that is very much on the leading edge of where they are helping both sovereigns and oil companies not only find more oil.
它不只是石油服务类的股票。
It's not just an oil services play.
我的意思是，它实际上是在运用科技。
I mean, it's it's really a play that's working technology.
我们了解了那笔交易。
We learned about that deal.
他们基本上涉及暖通空调系统的冷却等方面。
They're they're involved essentially in cooling for HVAC systems and whatnot.
所以他们的技术让股价显得便宜。
So their technology makes them cheap.
但如果你回顾十年前，那家公司的盈利能力，基本上是在二叠纪盆地替代燃料的鼎盛时期，我觉得他们正在回到那个水平，而股价还没有反映这一点。
But if you go back ten years, the earnings power on that company, which was the heyday essentially of alternative fuels in the Permian and whatnot, I I think they're getting back there, and the stock's not priced for that.
而且我们都知道在2010年代中期发生了什么。
And and and we all know what happened in the mid teens.
所以换句话说，当时真的有一股替代燃料的热潮。
So in other words, there was a real, rush for alternative fuels.
美国在替代能源领域简直是个奇迹，但他们过度投资了。
The US was this this kind of miracle in the world of of alternative energy, and they overinvested.
我觉得他们现在做法都不一样了。
And I think they're all doing it differently.
我觉得他们现在很保守。
I think they're doing it conservatively.
我觉得有些需求是我们还没看到的。
I think there's demand that we haven't seen.
是的，我觉得这不仅仅是一笔交易。
And yes, I think this is more than just a trade.
我觉得这是一项投资。
I think this is an investment.
对。
Yes.
我们刚才提到，股价盘中创下了新高。
We mentioned excellently hitting an intraday high.
所以能源板块波动很大。
So a lot of movement in the energy sector.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，要给大家带来两家大型科技公司的财报。
Coming up, a pair of big tech earnings to tell you all about.
说的是戴尔和Palo Alto，它们财报公布后股价有变动。
Talking about Dell and Palo Alto on the move after their results.
我们会拿到所有数据，还有从电话会议中了解到的情况，马上就来。
We get all the numbers and what we're learning from the conference call is coming up next.
另外，迪尔创纪录的涨势让这家拖拉机制造商股价创新高，农业设备的前景如何，别走开。
Plus Deers record rally with fueling the tractor maker to fresh eyes and the outlook for AG equipment now do not go anywhere.
《快钱》节目马上回来。
Fast Money is back in tune.
你现在收看的是CNBC的《快钱》节目。
You're watching Fast Money here on CNBC.
我们马上回来。
We'll be right back.
现在是NFL开球时间。
It's NFL kickoff time.
周三，迈克尔·奥扎尼将带来独家NFL球队估值。
Wednesday, exclusive NFL team valuations from Michael Ozanian.
周四，CNBC体育将从NFL在澳大利亚的首场比赛现场直播，采访总裁罗杰·古德尔。
Thursday, CNBC Sport live from the NFL's first ever game in Australia with commissioner Roger Goodell.
周三开始，锁定CNBC。
Starts Wednesday, CNBC.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
戴尔股价因财报利好大涨，公司营收和利润双双大幅超预期，并预计整个财年AI服务器收入将增长两倍。
An earnings alert on Dell shares are jumping after the company posted a big beat on the top and the bottom line and reported that it sees AI server revenue tripling in the full fiscal year.
我们的麦肯齐·塞加洛斯在这里，带来更多消息，麦肯齐。
Our Mackenzie Segalos is here with much more Mac.
你好，弗兰克。
Hey there, Frank.
到目前为止，电话会议的最大要点是，戴尔的AI热潮正在蔓延到数据中心的其余部分。
So the big takeaway from the conference call so far is that Dell's AI boom is now spilling into the rest of the data center.
首席运营官杰夫·克拉克刚才表示，传统服务器收入增长了122%，部分原因是公司需要更多的CPU计算能力，与GPU一起用于AI和高能耗的工作负载。
You've got COO Jeff Clark saying a moment ago that traditional server revenue jumped a 122% partly because companies need more CPU compute alongside GPUs for AI and energetic workloads.
存储增长也在急剧加速，戴尔表示，它也开始看到网络方面的AI相关需求。
Storage growth also accelerating sharply, and Dell says that it's starting to see AI related demand across networking as well.
这种组合对盈利能力很重要。
That mix is important for profitability.
这些传统企业产品的利润率比大规模AI服务器部署更高，而后者是戴尔迄今为止增长的主要驱动力。
These traditional enterprise products carry better margins than the massive AI server deployments that have driven much of Dell's growth so far.
克拉克还表示，另一个有利因素是，一些公司正在将部分AI工作负载带回本地，因为那里的代币经济学可能更具成本效益，而且客户对敏感数据有更多的控制权。
Clark saying that another tailwind here is companies bringing some AI workloads back on prem where the token economics can be more cost effective and that customers have more control over sensitive data.
而且这一切都发生在戴尔大幅上调年度预期之际，现在预计AI服务器收入将增长两倍，而六个月前的预测是翻倍，同时将全年收入提升至1920亿美元。
And all of that comes as Dell dramatically raises the bar for the year and now expects AI server revenue to triple up from its forecast from just six months ago that it would double while lifting full year revenue to a $192,000,000,000.
唯一的软肋是个人电脑业务，该业务略低于预期。
The one softer spot was PCs with that business coming in slightly below expectations.
但总体而言，需求依然强劲，戴尔本季度末的积压订单创下了950亿美元的纪录。
But overall, demand remains strong with Dell ending the quarter with a record $95,000,000,000 backlog.
弗兰克？
Frank?
麦肯齐·萨加洛斯，非常感谢。
Mackenzie Sagalos, thank you very much.
丹，我想请你来说说。
Dan, I wanna come over to you.
保利，这只股票已经消化了很多预期，很多目标价上调，还有很多小道消息。
Paulie, lot was kinda priced into this stock, a lot of price target increases going into it, lot of whisper numbers.
你怎么看这个季度和那个指引，收入增长两倍？
What do you make of the quarter on that that guidance, tripling revenue?
太惊人了。
Massive.
我是说，听好了。
I mean, listen.
我们已经习惯了这种情况。
We've gotten used to this.
对吧？
Right?
每次看到这些业绩报告，只要跟AI沾边，你都会期待超预期幅度有多大。
You're going into these prints, anything in around, you know, AI, you're expecting what is the magnitude of the beat.
这次是大幅超预期。
This is a huge beat.
而且指引和交易也都是大幅超预期。
It was a huge guide and trade.
我觉得最重要的是，我昨晚在最后交易时段说的最后一句话是，我真的很想看看利润率的情况怎么样。
And I I guess the most important thing, my final comment last night during the final trade is, like, I'm really interested to see what that margin situation looked like.
对吧？
Right?
我们聊到内存。
We talk about memory.
我们聊到这些投入成本。
We talk about these input costs.
你可能会觉得这会给戴尔的利润率带来压力，但它却从环比18%涨到了21%。
You'd think that that would kind of put some pressure on Dell's margins, but it just went from sequentially 18% to 21%.
这是他们很长时间以来最好的毛利率，至少有两三年了，现在估值接近市场平均水平。
That's the best gross margin they put up in a very long time, so at least a couple years trading near a market multiple right now.
我就是不觉得。
I just don't.
我还是不知道该怎么追。
I don't again, I I don't know how you chase it.
本来就不该在财报发布前做多。
Wouldn't have been long into the print.
展开剩余字幕（还有 358 条）
这真的取决于这些超预期的幅度有多大。
It really comes down to what is the magnitude of these beats.
我们之前也遇到过类似的情况，比如那些半导体公司和内存公司，迟早会回调，因为它们也都经历过。
We've been there before with some of these semi guys and the memory guys, and sooner or later, it will sell off because they all did too.
蒂姆，轮到你了。
Tim, coming over to you.
他说的是按市场倍数交易。
He's saying trade in a market multiple.
我觉得有一点很重要，HPE的预期市盈率大约是13倍，而戴尔大约是23到24倍。
I think it's kind of important to note that HPE appear, trades at about 13 times forward, and then you look at Dell trading about 23, 24 times forward.
对。
Yeah.
不过，我觉得我们可以上调那个预测，根据他们刚刚公布的结果。
Although, I I think we can upgrade that that forecast and what they just announced here.
而且，他们再次超出了销售预期。
And, again, they beat their sales forecast.
顺便问一下，戴尔是你最后的交易吗？
By the way, diesel, was was Dell your your final trade
昨晚？
last night?
那是我最后的评论。
It was my final comment.
好的。
Okay.
不是。
No.
因为我的意思是，不是。
Because I mean No.
我只是因为我知道那个人提到了他前一晚的最后交易。
I just because I know the guy referenced his final trade from the night before.
不是。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
其实那只股票，对，没错。
The stock actually that's right.
而且还有点热度。
And to some heat.
你当时是不是有点犹豫？
Was was you washy.
我的意思是，你们喜欢给出十秒钟的推荐。
Like, what I'm saying is you guys like to give a ten second recommendation.
我喜欢对某件事发表评论。
I like to have a comment on something.
有意思。
Interesting.
你知道，我是个大粉丝
You know, I'm a big fan
最后评论的。
of final comment.
所以回到弗兰克你的问题。
So back to Frank, your question.
相对HPE来说，它贵吗？
Is it expensive relative to HPE?
是的。
Yeah.
但我觉得HPE不会给你那样的利润增长，尤其是数据中心那种三倍增长。
But I I don't think HPE is giving you that that kind of margin growth and especially the data center that that that tripling.
你会看到升级。
You're gonna see upgrades.
我认为这已经从22倍前瞻市盈率降到大概20倍以内了。
I think this has gone from 22 times forward probably inside of 20.
好的。
Alright.
这就对了。
There we go.
现在转到Palo Alto。
Turning now to Palo Alto.
在公布业绩后，股价也在上涨，其盈利和营收均超出分析师预期。
Also in the move after its results, earnings and revenue coming in ahead of analyst expectations.
下一代安全产品的年度经常性收入同比增长63%，公司还给出了比预期更好的本季度和2027财年展望。
Next gen security annual recurring revenues up 63% from a year ago, and the company also giving better than expected outlook for the current quarter and for fiscal year twenty twenty seven.
Guy，我想听听你的看法。
Guy, I want to come over to you.
估值很高，这也许就是为什么你没有看到像戴尔现在那样的强劲走势。
Big valuation, which is why maybe you're not getting the robust move you're seeing in Dell right now.
顺便说一下，戴尔基本上只是收复了当天的跌幅，但我觉得我们看到的这种情况是合理的。
By the way, Dell's just basically getting back what it lost during the day for context, but I think what we're seeing here makes sense.
不可否认，Palo Alto的业绩数字非常亮眼。
There's no denying the numbers are great around Palo Alto.
但你也得承认，它的估值非常高，这种情况我们以前也见过。
What you also have to acknowledge though, it's a huge valuation, so we've seen it before.
这类股票通常会在财报发布后，因为估值担忧而下跌，除非有什么历史性的大消息。
This is typically a stock that unless there's something historic in the aftermath of earnings, sells off on the back of valuation concerns.
但在我看来，它是网络安全领域里最优秀的公司。
But this is the best name, in my opinion, in the cybersecurity space.
Carter，你怎么看？
Carter?
嗯，和几乎所有其他热门股不同，那些股票很多都跌了40%、50%、60%，比如一些AI和半导体股票。
Well, as distinct from almost every other high flyer, has given ground, and in many cases, forty, fifty, 60%, certain AI and semiconductor stocks.
而Palo Alto的股价几乎没动。
Palo Alto hasn't budged at all.
它基本上一直在历史高位附近交易。
It's trading basically at all time highs.
市场反应平淡，这才是最终的评判标准。
The response is muted, and that is the final arbiter.
财报后的市场反应说明了很多问题。
The reaction post earnings says a lot.
就像Guy说的，这只股票已经涨了很多，估值不便宜。
It says the stock, as Guy implies, has come a long way, is expensive.
不管你怎么看，如果它不贵，早就大涨30%了。
However, one wants to judge it, because if it weren't, it would be gapping up 30%.
对。
Yeah.
Palo Alto股价回落了大约1.5%，但正如你们所说，年初至今涨幅超过90%。
Palo Alto pulling back about one and a half percent, but as you guys are all noting, year to date up more than 90%.
顺便说一句，接下来一个小时会有大型科技报道。
By the way, big night of tech coverage coming up in the next hour.
CrowdStrike和Palo Alto的CEO，以及戴尔的CFO，将独家接受Jim的采访。
The CEOs of CrowdStrike and Palo Alto, as well as Dell CFO, they are chatting exclusively with Jim.
这些采访将在整点时刻在《疯狂金钱》节目中播出。
Catch those interviews at the top of the hour on Mad Money.
好的。
Alright.
接下来在《快钱》节目中，我们将关注今天引起我们注意的快速变动股票。
Coming up here on Fast Money, the fast movers catching our attention today.
是什么推动了Deere、诺华等股票的大幅上涨？
What's driving big gains in deer, Novartis and more?
接下来为您揭晓。
That's next.
另外，苹果股价创下一个月来最大单日涨幅，同时约翰·特尼斯接任CEO一职。
Plus Apple putting its putting in its best day in over a month as John Turnis, he steps into the CEO seat.
股价能否保持上涨势头？
Can the stock keep the momentum going?
我们将就此展开讨论。
We will debate.
你现在收看的是《快钱》节目，我们在时代广场的纳斯达克市场现场直播。
You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square.
广告之后马上回来。
You're right back after this.
NFL开赛时间到了。
It's NFL kickoff time.
周三，迈克尔·奥扎尼安将独家发布NFL球队估值。
Wednesday, exclusive NFL team valuations from Michael Ozanian.
周四，CNBC体育将从澳大利亚直播NFL史上首场海外赛，采访总裁罗杰·古德尔。
Thursday, CNBC Sport live from the NFL's first ever game in Australia with commissioner Roger Goodell.
周三开始，锁定CNBC。
Starts Wednesday, CNBC.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
九月首个交易日，股市承压。
Stocks under pressure in the first day of September trading.
道指下跌了400多点。
The Dow shedding over 400 points.
标普500指数下跌了近1%，而纳斯达克和纳斯达克100指数都下跌了超过1%。
The S and P off by nearly 1%, while the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 each fell by more than 1%.
诺华制药股价大涨6%，创下2023年以来的最佳单日表现。
Novartis surging 6% for its best day since 2023.
其多发性硬化症药物在后期试验中表现优于赛诺菲的旧疗法，显著降低了复发率，德尔的股价上涨超过3%，创下历史新高。
A late stage trial of its multiple sclerosis drug outperformed an older treatment from Sanofi significantly reducing relapse rates, deer rising over 3% to record highs.
仅今年一年，该股就飙升了45%。
This year alone, the stock has surged by 45%.
还有几只股票在最近一个小时内发布财报后出现波动，GitLab因业绩和指引好于预期而大涨。
And some more stocks on the move after reporting in the last hour, GitLab surging on better than expected results and guidance.
与此同时，MongoDB在业绩超预期但指引不佳后股价下跌。
Meantime, MongoDB sinking after its beat and its race.
现在插播一条关于谷歌的新闻快讯。
Now to a news alert on Google.
麦肯齐·塞加洛斯会带来详细报道。
Mackenzie Segalos has those details.
麦肯齐？
Mac?
弗兰克，谷歌的AI团队准备发布新模型3.8 Flash。
So, Frank, Google's AI team set to release a new model, 3.8 Flash.
这个模型显然在编码能力上有所升级。
This apparently has upgraded coding capabilities.
这是《华尔街日报》援引员工消息报道的。
That's according to The Wall Street Journal that's citing employees.
可能最快明天就会发布，而且公司的工程师告诉《华尔街日报》，在执行内部编码任务时，他们其实更喜欢这个模型，而不是Anthropic的Opus模型。
It could come as soon as tomorrow, and the company's engineers telling The Journal that they actually prefer it to Anthropix's opus model in terms of performing internal coding tasks.
不过我要说的是，这不是3.5 Pro，那个是Alphabet CEO桑达尔·皮查伊在六月份承诺的，也不是Gemini Forge，那个才是我们一直期待的Gemini真正的重大变革。
What I will say, this is not 3.5 pro, which Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai promised back in June, nor is this Gemini Forge is the real step change that we have been waiting for from Gemini.
这发生在DeepMind实验室人才流失的背景下，我们正看到内部的大规模重组。
This comes amid an exodus of talent from the DeepMind Lab as we see this big reorg internally.
所以我在想，这个时机是不是也有关系。
So I wonder whether that timing is playing into it.
而且就像你们昨晚在《快钱》节目里讨论的，这正好是在它自2015年以来最长连续月度亏损之后。
And as you guys discussed on Fast Money last night, it comes right out of its longest monthly stretch of losses since 2015.
所以也许这其中有部分只是做做样子。
So perhaps part of this is just optics.
好的。
Alright.
Alphabet股价在盘后交易中上涨了大约1%。
Alphabet shares up just about 1% after hours trading.
Mackenzie Segalos，非常感谢你。
Mackenzie Segalos, thank you very much.
Dan，接下来轮到你了。
Dan, wanna come over to you.
好的。
Yeah.
麦克，还是老样子，围绕交易来说。
Mac, just surrounding the trade as usual.
这挺有意思的，因为它本来是为了编程设计的，而且我们知道Anthropic已经凭借Claude Code遥遥领先了。
This is interesting because it is, meant to be for coding, and we know that Anthropic has run away with this with with Claude Code.
然后，你知道，OpenAI的Codex一直在追赶。
And then, you know, Codex, which is OpenAI, has been coming up up against that.
我就是觉得这挺有意思的。
I just think it's interesting.
我们知道，就Gemini而言，它和所有那些产品的整合，对消费者来说还是相当不错的。
We know that, you know, as far as Gemini is concerned, the integration with all of those products that they have, this is something as it relates to consumers is pretty good.
他们有那个分发渠道，但如果他们能在企业编程方面，相对于OpenAI和Anthropic取得任何进展，我觉得那可能会让这只股票稍微振作起来。
They have that distribution, but if they were able able to make any progress versus, let's say, OpenAI and Anthropic as far as the enterprise for coding purposes, I think that would be something that could cause this stock to kinda get back on its horse a little bit.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，苹果的John Turnis时代开始了。
Coming up, Apple's John Turnis era begins.
接下来，苹果公司的新任CEO上任后，这家iPhone制造商下一步会做什么，以及面临的首要任务是什么，欢迎收看《Fast Money Returns》。
What's next for the iPhone maker and the top priorities facing its newly minted CEO with Fast Money Returns.
欢迎回到《Fast Money》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
今天苹果在道指中排名第二。
Apple grabbing the number two spot in the Dow today.
股价上涨了近3%。
Shares gaining almost 3%.
股价上涨是因为新任CEO约翰·特尼斯正式接替蒂姆·库克。
The move higher comes as its new CEO, John Turnis, officially takes the reins from Tim Cook.
他在苹果年度发布会前八天开始担任CEO，预计发布会将推出新款iPhone和Apple Watch。
He starts as CEO eight days before Apple's annual launch event, which is expected to include new iPhones and new Apple Watches.
特尼斯之前负责苹果的硬件业务，他需要说服华尔街，苹果能跟上人工智能的进步。
Ternis, who previously ran hardware for Apple, will have to convince Wall Street it can keep up with advancements in artificial intelligence.
让我们请来Deepwater资产管理公司的管理合伙人吉恩·蒙斯特。
Let's bring in Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management.
Gene，见到你总是很高兴。
Gene, always good to see you.
顺便说一下，转过来。
The way, turn this.
他在发推文。
He's tweeting.
他在发推文。
He's tweeting.
他想跟大众互动。
He's trying to get out there with the people.
你对第一天怎么看？还有一周就是那个大活动了，这些预期你怎么看？
What do you make of day one and some of these expectations just a week away with the big event?
嗯，第一天表现不错，显然，市场在跌，苹果却涨了几个百分点。
Well, day one went well with them, obviously, with the market being down, Apple being up a couple percent.
我觉得这在一定程度上是因为他今早发给员工的信，他在信里谈到了下周的新产品，但同时也说，我引用一下，他对下周之后的产品更兴奋。
And I think that came in part from his letter to employees this morning where he talked about the new products next week, but also said, and I quote, he's more excited about the products that come after what we're going to see next week.
当然，这对苹果的投资者来说简直是天籁之音。
And of course, that's music to Apple's investors ears.
但他接手的是一个非常有利的局面。
But what he is inheriting is, first and foremost, is a strong hand here.
正如你提到的，他有这些新产品要推出，包括这款折叠屏手机。
He has, as you mentioned, these new products coming, this foldable phone.
关于折叠屏手机，真正重要的不是有多少比例的iPhone会变成折叠屏。
The real the mechanism there, what's important about that foldable phone is less about what percentage of iPhones are going be foldable.
那个数字会非常小。
That number will be very small.
更重要的是他们如何借此全面推高价格。
It's more about how they are kind of squeezing the prices higher across the board.
他们可以利用这款高端手机来吸引和诱导消费者购买更高价位的产品。
They can use that really high end phone to kind of start to drag and entice people to move higher.
而且，他刚推出的新版Siri AI也表现强劲。
But also, he's coming off of a strong beta of the new Siri AI.
你提到苹果有没有AI实力这个问题。
You talked about does Apple have AI chops?
假设测试版进展顺利，假设今年在美国推出，我认为那会是他手中的一张好牌。
Assuming beta is going really well, assuming that rolls out in The US this year, I think that that's going to be, that's part of his strong hand.
但说到他上任第一天的实质内容，回答你的问题，核心在于留住员工。
But really the substance of his first day, to answer your question, is around employee retention.
我觉得这是他最重要的目标。
And I think that's his number one goal here.
当他谈到这些令人兴奋的新产品时，一切都是为了留住和吸引顶尖人才。
When he talks about these exciting new products, it is all about retaining and bringing in the best talent.
昨晚OpenAI说他们挖走了苹果400名员工。
OpenAI last night made this comment that they've poached 400 Apple employees.
这大约是过去一年苹果园区员工总数的3%。
It's about 3% of the employees at Apple Park over the past year.
所以我认为，他面临的首要挑战就是确保苹果依然是一个很棒的地方，继续吸引顶尖人才。
And so that, I think, is first and foremost amongst his challenges is really making sure that Apple is an amazing place, continues to be a great place that draws the best talent.
好的。
All right.
所以你有点担心人才流失的问题。
So you're a little bit worried about the brain drain.
我跟其他人聊过，他们说这有点像在清理门户。
I've talked to some other people that say it's kind of clearing the decks.
这让约翰·特努斯有机会带进自己人。
It's allowing John Turnis to bring in his own people.
所以在这个问题上，大家看法不一。
So different thoughts when it comes to that.
但我想聊聊定价，特别是内存芯片和设备的定价。
But I want to talk about pricing, specifically when it comes to memory chips and also the devices.
就像我们提到的，蒂姆·库克会跟世界各地的政策制定者沟通。
As we've mentioned, Tim Cook's going to be kind of talking to policymakers all around the world.
特努斯会怎么解决iPhone和其他设备的 affordability 问题呢？
How is Ternus gonna address the affordability issue when it comes to iPhones and other devices?
所以，关于价格承受能力的问题，其实归结到iPhone的购买方式上，至少在美国，我们觉得大部分人是按月订阅购买的。
So the affordable issue comes down to the percentage of iPhones, at least we think in The US, that are purchased on a subscription basis.
根据我们的数据，超过四分之三的iPhone用户是按月付款购买的。
And that based on our numbers, it's more than three quarters of people who own iPhones buy them on a monthly basis.
如果下周iPhone涨价15%，我觉得这个数字挺有参考价值的，那么平均每个人每月大概要多付3到5美元。
And if we look at a 15% price increase on iPhone coming next week, which I think is probably a good benchmark, it really accounts to about 3 to $5 per month for the average person.
所以，现实情况是，如果你让一个普通人一下子多掏几百美元买手机，他们肯定不乐意。
And so, the reality is is that if you ask a typical person to show up with another couple $100 for a phone that will not be greeted warmly.
但如果你说每个月就多付一点点，那显然更容易接受。
If you say it is a small amount every month, that's obviously more acceptable.
所以我觉得，这个价格问题其实归结到一个很简单的问题，就是这些设备对消费者来说到底值不值。
And so I think this price question really comes down to a very simple, I think, conversation around is there value in these devices for consumers?
而且我觉得，过去十年里，苹果的升级率一直超过90%。
And I think overwhelmingly Apple has had 90% plus upgrade rates for the better part of the last decade.
我的感觉是，大多数顾客根本不会在意这点涨价。
And my sense is that most of the customers aren't going to bat an eye.
把这些都放在一起看，弗兰克，最终的结果是，我认为苹果将处于一个非常好的位置，不仅能在十二月季度超出预期，明年六月也会如此。
And when we put all this together, Frank, where it all comes together is, I think Apple is gonna be in a great place to exceed estimates not only in the December quarter, but also in June of next year.
那个季度会特别好，因为他们会分散iPhone的升级周期，秋天发布几款手机，春天再发布几款。
That one's gonna be particularly a good quarter because they're gonna be splitting that iPhone upgrade cycle, Couple phones this fall, couple in the spring.
我认为这会让实际数字相对于预期有所提升。
And I think that that's going to kind of juice where the numbers are going to be relative to expectations.
吉恩，我觉得服务收入现在大约占总收入的27%。
Gene, I think services revenue is now 27% ish of overall revenue.
人工智能能把这个数字从27%提升到32%吗？
What can AI do to that number in terms of does it take it from 27% to 32%?
那这对市盈率意味着什么？
And then what does that mean for the multiple?
嗯，服务业务还在经历一些变化，比如他们如何交付产品，以及向开发者开放，让应用开发者也能向其他方向发展。
Well, there's the services business is still kind of going through this trade, some changes in terms of how they can deliver the products, letting kind of opening it up for developers to app developers to move in other directions, too.
所以我想强调一下，服务业务面临一些不利因素。
So I just want to kind of highlight there's a headwind to the services business.
如果你把那些变化先放一边，就想想AI可能带来的影响，那答案是相当大的。
If you would kind of level set and just say, let's not worry about some of those changes and think about what AI potentially could do, the answer is it's significant.
这将是下一届WWDC的重头戏。
And this is what is going to be kind of the punch to next WWDC.
所以，如果从现在起快进九个月，重点将是开发者在苹果平台上构建AI赋能的应用程序。
So if we fast forward nine months from now, it's going to be all about developers building AI empowered apps and on Apple's platform.
这才是他们真正想推动的。
That's what they're really going to want to push for.
如果这真的发生了，这些应用的平均售价就会上涨。
If that, in fact, does happen, the ASPs of these apps are going to go up.
App Store目前占服务总收入的略超过三分之一。
The App Store accounts for just over a third of the total services revenue.
所以回答你的问题，我大致认为现在占总收入的25%左右。
And so to answer your question, I think of it generally is about 25% of revenue today.
我觉得五年后，考虑到AI的推动力，这个比例可能会接近30%。
I think five years now, it's probably closer to 30% of revenue when you factor in that AI tailwind.
对，吉恩·蒙斯特，很高兴见到你，今天是约翰·特尼斯的第一天。
Right, Gene Munster, great to see you for John Turnis' first day.
再次感谢。
Thanks again.
也谢谢你。
You.
我想
I want to
转到你这边。
come over to you.
卡特那边可能有点音频问题。
Might be having some audio issues with Carter.
蒂姆，你刚才说的，我现在就转到你这边。
Tim, you're saying so I'm just coming over to you now.
好，就这么办。
Yeah, let's do that.
所以，首先想想，Ultra对苹果来说是个令人兴奋的发布，不管它是不是能改变格局的产品。
So, think about, first of all, Ultra is an exciting release for Apple, whether it's a needle mover or not.
它也确实有助于缓和一些，我是说，Ultra的价格可能高达3000美元。
It does tend to also smooth out some of the I mean, Ultra could cost up to $3,000.
所以我觉得这里面有一些因素。
So I think there's elements of this.
这是一个标志性产品。
It's a signature product.
这确实是苹果很长时间以来第一次进行革新，是个激动人心的时刻。
It actually is an exciting time on a revamp for the first time in a long time with Apple, I think.
我觉得今天的走势，我是说，当Guy和Diesel去看尼克斯比赛时，Guy拿着D，Dan举着牌子，他们在人群中喊防守。
I think today's move, I mean, when when Guy and and Diesel go to a nick game, Guy has a d and Dan holds up a fence, and they they yell in the crowd like defense.
那很可爱，但我想说的是，苹果现在处于防守姿态。
And that and that's cute, but I mean, what's really going on here is Apple is defensive here.
而在今天的盘面上，我觉得你有了新的CEO。
And on today's tape, I think you have a new CEO.
这很令人兴奋。
That's exciting.
我觉得我们有这个Ultra的发布。
I think we have this ultra release.
这很令人兴奋。
That's exciting.
而且我觉得苹果是一个防守型的玩家。
And I think Apple is a defensive player.
好的。
Okay.
行。
Alright.
行。
Alright.
等等，等一下。
Wait a Hold on.
可能有些人是第一次看。
There may be people watching for the first time.
卡特想走了。
Carter wants to go.
我只想让大家知道，不。
And I just want people to know that, no.
我不会那样做，丹也不会。
I do not do that, nor does Dan.
如果你真那样做，你可能得重新考虑你的人生了。
If you do do that, you might wanna rethink your entire existence.
交回给你，弗兰克。
Back to you, Frank.
为什么，为什么重新考虑你的整个防御？
Why why rethink your entire defense?
这太苛刻了。
It's harsh.
卡特，就说那个角色吧。
Carter, say it's that role.
卡特，我们要把这个救回来。
Carter, we're gonna save this.
先是检查贴纸。
First, was inspection stickers.
现在是那些暗示你会摆出比赛的牌子。
Now it's signs that assume that you would put up a game.
救救我们吧，卡特。
Save us, Carter.
我可不属于那种举牌子的人，苹果那事儿也一样。
I'm not in the hold up signs camp in any of that Apple.
这是一种长期持有、慢慢上涨的温和趋势，但在这种波动大、震荡多的环境下，我觉得温和是好事。
It's a stay long, be long sort of benign uptrend, but benign in this environment when a lot of volatility and chop is taking place, I think, is a positive thing.
这确实印证了蒂姆的说法。
And it really does equate to what Tim's saying.
这个证券在目前这个时间点上，防守性特征非常明显。
There's a very defensive characteristic to this particular security at this particular time.
顺便说一句，卡特，你有点像邦德电影里的大反派。
By the way, Carter, you kinda like a Bond villain.
你这边全是白色，白色背景。
You got, like, all white, the white background.
就像，对。
It's like Yeah.
跟我这边形成鲜明对比，好吧。
Different contrast to my Alright.
接下来，工业股正处在十字路口。
Coming up, industrials at a crossroads.
图表大师会指出那些从看涨转为看跌的股票。
The chart master lays out the names flashing bullish to bearish reversals.
稍后还有卡特·布拉克斯顿·沃斯的更多观点，以及他为什么认为现在是卖出的时机。
More Carter Braxton Worth coming up and why he thinks it's time to sell.
广告之后，马上回来《快钱》。
Fast Money Back right after this.
还有全部。
And the whole.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
过去一个月利率上升，工业板块的强势表现有所消退，图表大师认为这些股票的由牛转熊趋势还没结束。
With rates rising over the last month, the industrial trade has seen some of its outperformance fade, and the chart master thinks the bullish to bearish reversal in these names, not quite done yet.
卡特·布拉克斯顿·沃斯，我们说的是多少只股票？你想重点提哪几只？
Carter Braxton Worth, how many names are we talking about, and which ones do you wanna highlight?
在讲图表之前，这是市场的一个常见现象。
Before we get to the charts, it's a common feature in the market.
对吧？
Right?
有很多之前非常强势的股票开始回落，我称之为由牛转熊的反转。
There are lot of heretofore very strong stocks that have started to roll over, What I characterize as bullish to bearish reversal.
所以这不仅仅是工业股独有的现象，但在更广泛的回调股票中，有一些关键的工业股表现非常糟糕。
So it's not just unique to industrials, but there are certain key industrials among the broader group of rollovers that are very unhappy.
我们直接来看吧。
Let's get to it.
我们有三只股票，你会看到它们的情况完全一样。
We have three, and you'll see that the circumstance is identical.
GE下跌了一些，GEV从6月底的高点下跌了大约26%到27%。
GE down some GEV, down some 26, 27% from its peak of late June.
这很严重，但最重要的是，它跌破了150日移动平均线。
That's serious business, but most importantly, breaking its one hundred and fifty day moving average.
三只中的第二只，你会看到这里有一只非常显眼的卡特彼勒，下跌了25%，也跌破了上升趋势线。
The second of three, you'll see here a very big and prominent Caterpillar, down 25% and also breaching its uptrend line.
最后是康明斯发动机，CMI，情况相同，跌幅也惊人地相似，但首先最重要的是，这是强势的前提条件。
And finally, a Cummins engine, CMI, same circumstance and here too, down remarkably similar amount, but that's first and foremost, it's the precondition of strength.
这些曾经翻倍甚至翻三倍的股票，现在从高点都下跌了超过25%。
These are doubles and triples that down now have all lost 25 plus percent from their peaks.
日复一日的相对强度非常差，表现不佳，当然，这个板块本身，正如你指出的，也开始跑输大盘。
Day to day relative strength, very poor, underperforming, of course, the sector which itself, as you point out, is starting to underperform the market.
这不是一个好情况。
Not a good circumstance.
好的，卡特，非常感谢你的分析。
All right, Carter, thank you very much for that.
盖伊，我想请你来说说。
Guy, I want to come over to you.
对我来说，卡特指出的那些股票中，卡特彼勒是最有意思的。
Caterpillar is the most, for me, it's the most interesting of many that he pointed out.
但我是说，大家都喜欢卡特彼勒。
But I mean, everybody loved Caterpillar.
顺便说一句，从估值上看，我仍然喜欢它，但不可否认，在过去一个半月里，它的交易表现并不好。
By the way, I still do on valuation, but there's no denying over the last month and a half that it's not traded particularly well.
它的交易方式在某些方面像那些存储类股票，在某些方面甚至更糟。
It's trading in some ways like some of these memory stocks, in some ways actually worse.
我觉得估值上还有一定的缓冲空间。
I think there's a valuation cushion.
不幸的是，我认为可能要到之前的历史高点，也就是大约7.25美元，那是在我们差不多见顶的时候。
Unfortunately, I don't think it's probably until the prior all time high, which gets you down to about $7.25 and that goes back to when we sort of topped out.
我想说的是今年二月初。
I want to say in February earlier in February this year.
所以还有更多下行空间。
So more room to
而且通常卡特从看涨到看跌的反转信号都挺准的。
the downside and typically Carter's bullish to bearish reversals hold up well.
有意思的是，投资卡特彼勒的理由和现在投资内存股的理由很相似，当内存股因为数据中心什么的上涨时，卡特彼勒也跟着涨，因为它降低了周期性。
What's interesting with Caterpillar is the argument is for for investing here is also similar to what you're hearing with memory stocks at a time when it's rallying because memory stocks are, you know, data center and whatnot, and that's driving Caterpillar is that it's reduced cyclicality.
这一点我我不太确定。
And that's something that I I'm not sure.
你知道吗？
You know?
我是说，你可以说这是有史以来最伟大的周期性时刻。
I mean, you can't you could argue this is the greatest cyclical moment of all time.
而且我们之前也讨论过迪尔。
And and we've talked about deer earlier.
我觉得现在是做那个配对交易的好时机，而且它已经开始动了。
I think this is a great time for that parrotrade and it's already started to move.
所以，真的很关键。
So, really key.
我是说，卡特彼勒的名单上有很多名字。
I mean, this Carter's list, I mean, there's a lot of names on there.
你们都应该去拿来看看，我跟你说，那里面有很多有趣的图表。
You should all try to get it because I'm telling you, that's interesting stuff with a lot of charts out there.
而且我觉得卡特彼勒的图表对大盘来说至关重要。
And and I think the caterpillar chart like guy is is critical to the broader market.
好的。
All right.
接下来，学生住房的成绩单，校外大学宿舍复苏缓慢的情况，以及该领域最大牌公司之一的投资策略。
Coming up, the report card for student housing, a look at the slow going recovery in off campus college residences and the investment play from one of the biggest names in the space.
更多《快钱》内容，两分钟后回来。
Much more Fast Money coming up in two.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
And welcome back to Fast Money.
又到了一年中的这个时候，全国各地的学生们都回到了大学校园。
It is that time of year again, students are back at colleges and universities all across the nation.
虽然住在校园里或校园附近对一些人来说是一种必经的体验，但对于该领域的投资者来说，基本面正在发生变化。
And while living on or near a campus can be a rite of passage for some, for investors in that space, the fundamentals, they're changing facts.
我们的戴安娜·奥莱克将带来本周的房地产专题报道。
Our Diana Olek has the details in this week's property play.
戴安娜。
Diana.
嗯，弗兰克，经历了疫情后几年的动荡，学生住房正在缓慢改善。
Well, Frank, after some rocky years post pandemic, student housing is improving slowly.
根据Yardi的数据，7月份的预租率达到了89.1%，比去年的88.1%有所上升，但不同市场之间差异很大。
Pre leasing hit 89.1% in July, up from 88.1% last year according to Yardi, but there was significant variation across markets.
最大的学校市场，通常属于四大体育联盟的那些学校，正吸引着外部投资者的兴趣，估值也在上升。
The largest school markets, generally those schools that belong to the four major athletic conferences, are seeing outside investor interest and valuations.
我采访了Harrison Street资产管理公司的Mike Gordon，该公司自2005年以来在该领域投资了超过240亿美元。
Now I spoke with Mike Gordon at Harrison Street Asset Management, which has invested over $24,000,000,000 in the space since 2005.
他说他对学生住房的信心非常高，但并不是对每个学生住房市场都那么有信心。
He said his conviction in student housing is really high, but his conviction in every student housing market is not.
他说，有些学校入学增长非常强劲，但几乎没有新建住房，因为进入门槛太高了。
He said, you have schools with pretty exceptional enrollment growth and almost no new housing because the barriers to entry are so high.
而另一些学校入学增长平平，却有数千张床位即将投入使用。
And then you have others with modest enrollment growth and thousands of beds coming.
与此同时，入学人数、申请量、录取率、研究经费和学生成果越来越集中在许多顶尖院校。
At the same time, enrollment, application, selectivity, research funding, student outcomes are increasingly concentrating at many of the leading institutions.
那他是什么样的人呢？
So what is he like?
他说弗吉尼亚理工、奥本、宾州州立、弗吉尼亚大学和北卡大学这些市场入住率很高，但新建住房跟不上招生增长。
He said Virginia Tech, Auburn, Penn State, UVA, and UNC as markets with high occupancy and new construction lagging enrollment.
如果你喜欢这样的精彩内容，还想让播客直接送到你的邮箱，别忘了订阅Property Play新闻通讯，网址是cmbc.com/propertyplay。
For great plays like this and the podcast delivered to your inbox, don't forget sign up for the property play newsletter, cmbc.com/propertyplay.
弗兰克，交回给你。
Frank, back to you.
戴安娜，非常感谢你本周带来的Property Play。
Diana, thank you very much for this week's property play.
蒂姆，接下来轮到你了？
Tim, wanna come over to you?
嗯，这内容很有意思，你们真该去看看。
Well, it's fascinating stuff, and you should check that out.
我是说，戴安娜做得确实不错。
I mean, Diana is doing some good work.
我觉得这其实也反映了人口迁移的趋势。
I I think this is a migration story of what you're seeing also.
这就是大学界正在发生的事情，东北部的大学、文理学院。
This is what's going on in in in in the world of universities, Northeastern universities, liberal arts universities.
你会看到这种向南部、东南部、中西部的迁移，我认为这说明了你在哪里开始看到这种现象。
You're seeing this migration to the South, Southeast, Midwest, and and I think it speaks to where you start to see this.
最终，把这带入住房交易，我认为利率是个问题，而且我认为利率问题不会消失，我们还有负担能力的问题。
Ultimately, bringing this into a housing trade, I think interest rates are an issue, and I think interest rates are an issue that are not going away, and we have an affordability issue.
我们当然对利率很敏感。
We certainly have an interest rate sensitivity.
现在有些人比以往任何时候都更被房贷锁住。
There are people that have never now been more locked into a mortgage.
所以对我来说，住房交易就是你要关注周边产业。
So the housing trade for me is you want the peripherals.
你知道，你要关注一些暖通空调公司、一些电梯制造商、电梯公司，比如奥的斯。
You want some of the, you know, the HVAC players, some of the the elevator manufacturers, the trains, the Otises.
我觉得这些挺有意思的。
I mean, I think these are interesting.
对。
Yeah.
盖伊，我想把话题交给你。
Guy, I wanna come over to you.
顺便说一句，你刚才在谈利率，但说到现有的大学住房，我觉得那会表现得很不错。
By the way, you're talking about interest rates, but when it comes to the existing college housing, would think that would do very well.
我经常跟费城那边做校园公寓的大卫·阿德尔曼聊。
I often talk to David Adelman from a campus apartment stand in the Philly area.
当然。
Sure.
他是76人队的部分老板，今年他们就要拿世界冠军了。
Part part owner of the Sixers, world champions coming up this year.
那真是
That's
不错。
neat.
对，没错，哥们儿。
Yeah, right dude.
他就一直在说这个事实，来吧
And he just talks about the fact Come
别这样，老兄。
on, man.
我在电视上说过，这是事实。
I said it on TV, it's a fact.
哇，这挺有意思的，你知道吧。
Wow, it's just fun, you know.
我是说
I mean
但关键是，人们都想挤在这些大大学周围，所以像戴安娜那样，你有很多定价权。
But the point is that people want to be huddled around these big universities So like Diana there, you have a lot of ability to have pricing power.
而且他们显然有，如果你看看，我觉得，现在全国有16所学校的学费超过10万美元了。
And they clearly do, if you look, I think, currently there's 16 schools in the country that are now north of $100,000 in tuition.
这个数字只会继续往上涨，而且这也印证了戴安娜刚才提到的那些问题。
That number's only going to go up, and then it speaks to all the things that Diana just pointed out.
这些学校有能力提供那样的住宿条件，而且因为他们的运动队很有竞争力，所以能吸引到学生。
These schools are able to have that type of housing, and it attracts students because of the viability of their athletic teams.
这基本上都围绕几个关键点，她说得完全正确。
It all sort of centers around a couple of different things, and she's sitting nail on the head.
不过说到蒂姆提到的，让我觉得很有意思的是，在更广泛的市场里，这基本上处于历史最高点。
In terms of what Tim said, though, it's fascinating to me that on a broader market, it's basically at an all time high.
家得宝上一次创下历史新高是在2024年春天。
Home Depot last made its all time high in the spring of twenty twenty four.
除了过去几个月我们看到的那次反弹之外，现在又开始回落，这只股票的表现一直都不太好。
And outside of bounce we've seen over the last couple of months now reversing lower, the stock has not traded well at all.
好的。
All right.
卡特，你对这个有什么看法？
Carter, any thoughts on this one?
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，看看劳氏和家得宝，还有整个消费行业。
I mean, look at Lowe's to Home Depot and consumer really across the board.
想想看，家得宝是第二大。
Think those are the Home Depot is the second biggest.
看看特斯拉。
Look at Tesla.
看看那么多连锁酒店。
Look at so many of the hotel chains.
再说，那个行业问题很多，这很能说明问题。
Again, a lot of problems in that sector, and that says a lot.
好的。
Alright.
我们就聊到这里吧。
We'll leave the conversation there.
接下来，我们带来最后的交易建议。
Coming up next, we have your final trades.
你可别走开。
You do not go anywhere.
可能还有最后的评论，但肯定是最后的交易建议。
Might have a final comment, but definitely final trades.
好的。
Alright.
欢迎回到《快报》。
Welcome back to Fast.
现在是最后的交易建议时间。
It's time for the final trades.
我们轮流来。
Let's go around the horn.
卡特，你先来。
Carter, you're up first.
我们是半导体的卖家。
We're sellers of semiconductors.
在大跌之后，他们本来有机会反弹。
They had their chance to bounce after the big sell off.
他们反弹了20%，现在又开始下跌了。
They did 20%, and now they're succumbing again.
卖出SMH。
Sell SMH.
蒂姆，另一个迪尔可能挥舞防御旗帜的地方是XLV。
Tim another place where Diehl guy could be waving the defense sign is XLV.
医疗保健板块开始突破。
Healthcare it's starting to break out.
医疗科技，贾里德昨晚谈了一点关于医疗科技领域的情况。
Medtech Jared last night talked a little bit about what's going on in the MEDTEC space.
但我认为大型制药看起来很防御性。
But I think big pharma looks very defensive.
你正在获得
You're getting the
这里的资金流向。
flow here.
丹。
Dan.
对。
Yeah.
昨晚迪塞尔在最后交易时段对戴尔发表了评论。
Last night Diesel had a comment in the final trade about Dell.
你知道，我一直在想这是否会很有趣，因为利润率以及这里发生的情况，利润率非常好。
And you know I was wondering if it was going to be interesting because the margins and what happened here the margins were great.
不过我不会在这里追高这只股票，因为它已经回吐了不少涨幅。
I wouldn't chase the stock here though it's given a bunch back.
76人队能赢下勒布朗·詹姆斯这个年纪的球员算是幸运的，我上次看的时候他快40岁了。
Sixers are lucky to win the age of LeBron James which last I look is approaching 40.
你可以做到，马特·弗兰克。
You can do that Matt Frank.
这些是最后的评论。
These are final comments.
蒂姆提到她上次转学
Tim mentioned that she transfer last
我不是那个。
I'm not that.
那个。
That.
当然
Sure
反映CNBC或其母公司或关联公司的观点，可能已在电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体上提前发布。
reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium.
你不应将本播客中表达的任何观点视为对特定投资或特定策略的具体诱导，而应仅视为一种观点的表达。
You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of an opinion.
这些观点基于Fast Money参与者认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性，也不应将其作为可靠依据。
Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
要查看完整的Fast Money免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer。
To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer.
NFL开球时间到了。
It's NFL kickoff time.
周三，迈克尔·奥泽尼安将独家发布NFL球队估值。
Wednesday, exclusive NFL team valuations from Michael Ozenian.
周四，CNBC体育将从澳大利亚的NFL首场比赛中现场报道，届时将采访总裁罗杰·古德尔。
Thursday, CNBC Sport live from the NFL's first ever game in Australia with commissioner Roger Goodell.
周三开始，敬请关注CNBC。
Starts Wednesday, CNBC.
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