本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我根本不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
那些开拓先河、改变规则的女性。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我的一位
One of my
关于最推荐的建议，想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力的表现形式多种多样。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，要想成就大事，就得有宏大的格局。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二上新，各大播客平台都能收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
现场直播来自纽约时代广场的纳斯达克交易市场，这里是《快钱》。
Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money.
今晚的节目安排如下。
Here's what's on tap tonight.
今晚财报大戏不断，从科技巨头到大型连锁墨西哥卷饼公司，一个都不少。
A monster night of earnings from big tech to big burritos and beyond.
我们全程跟进今晚所有财报发布后的电话会议，带您第一时间了解市场动态——美联储维持利率不变，国债收益率曲线急剧陡峭，利差大幅扩大。
We're dialed into all the calls after all of tonight's reports and are bringing you all the details in a sharp steepening treasury yield spreads widening drastically as the Fed holds rates steady.
我们将深入分析今天这场备受关注的央行决策对市场的影响，以及它对您钱包的真正含义。
We'll dig into all the market reactions today's closely watch central bank decision and what it means for your money.
此外，韩国股市已连续第四天下跌。
Plus, South Korean stocks sink for fourth straight day.
宝洁公司营收未达预期，而通用电气医疗业务却表现强劲。
Procter and Gamble misses revenue expectations and healthy gains for GE Healthcare.
是什么让股价涨到了三个月来的高点？
What's got the stocks surging to three month highs?
我们来详细说说。
Get the details.
我是梅丽莎·李，现在为您从纳斯达克演播室B现场直播。
I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq.
今晚的演播团队有金·西摩、凯伦·费恩曼、史蒂夫·格拉索，还有来自安盛投资的多资产宏观投资主管迈克尔·坎托波利斯。
On the desk tonight, Kim Seymour, Karen Feynman, Steve Grasso, and Michael Cantopolis, head of multi asset macro investing at Janus Henderson Investors.
迈克尔，欢迎你。
Michael, welcome.
今晚的财报有不少重磅公司，微软和Meta的走势完全相反。
Some big names in tonight's earnings with Microsoft and Meta moving in opposite directions.
我们马上会给你最新数据，不过先说说盘后市场的大跌，股市一路下挫。
We'll get you those numbers in just a moment, but we start off with a late day sell off on the street that sent stocks tumbling.
道指领跌，下跌超过1100点。
The Dow leading the loss is shedding more than 1,100 points.
这是自去年四月以来最糟糕的百分比跌幅。
It was its worst percentage loss since April of last year.
纳斯达克已下跌近2%，正式进入回调区间，标普500也在下滑。
The Nasdaq down nearly 2% now officially in correction, and S and P also dropping.
美联储在最新会议上维持利率不变，引发市场担忧央行对抗通胀的力度可能不够。
The moves coming after the Fed held rates steady at its latest meeting, sparking fears the central bank may not be doing enough to combat inflation.
来看看利率的反应。
Take a look at the rate reaction.
三十年期国债收益率升至2007年以来最高水平。
Thirty year treasury hitting its highest yield level since 2007.
十年期国债收益率也大幅攀升。
The ten year also sharply higher.
两年期国债收益率则出现了回落。
The two year dropped.
这导致收益率曲线急剧陡峭化，短债和长债之间的利差在盘中大幅走阔。
That had the yield curve steepening sharply with the spread between short and long term treasuries spiking midday.
想了解更多今天的市场动态，我们连线华盛顿的史蒂夫·利斯曼。
For more on what we learned today, let's turn to Steve Leesman in DC's DC.
确实，市场对这些消息的反应相当明显，史蒂夫。
Certainly, the markets and like any of it, Steve.
我认为，梅丽莎，一个客观的事实是，无论是债券市场的长期部分，还是股市，今天对美联储的决定以及美联储主席凯文·沃什的言论都反应消极。
I think it's an objective observation to make, Melissa, that neither the long end of the bond market nor the stock market reacted favorably to the Fed's decision today or the comments made by Fed chairman Kevin Warsh.
有人认为，市场的这种反应，其实是对沃什对抗通胀决心的否定。
Some suggesting the market reaction, a thumbs down on Warsh's commitment to fighting inflation.
正如你刚才说的，长期债券遭到了重创。
The long end, as you just said, getting killed.
这是图表，三十年期国债的收益率。
Here's the chart, the yield on the thirty year.
它飙升至5月22日以来的最高水平，单日跳升了11到12个基点，幅度非常大。
It is the high surging ten, twelve, 11 basis points for a massive at 05/22.
收益率达到了2007年以来的最高水平。
It hit the highest yield since 2007.
2月10日的利差。
02/10 spread.
杰弗里·冈拉赫向斯科特·韦普纳指出，利差走阔，逆转了上一次新闻发布会后的收窄趋势。
Jeffrey Gunlach pointed this out, to Scott Wapner, steepened, undoing the flattening from the last press conference.
市场现在预计12月会加息，但预期幅度比之前会议前低了。
Markets now expect a hike in December, but less than they did from for the meeting.
加息的概率是69%，维持不变的概率是31%。
69% probability for a hike, 31 for a hold.
沃什微妙地暗示加息可能即将到来，但仔细听他的意思。
Warsh subtly hinting a hike could be coming, but listen carefully.
所以，说市场没做出反应，是因为我们今天没动，这种说法是误解。
So I think it's a mischaracterization to say that markets haven't reacted because we didn't move today.
市场其实正在实时做出反应。
Markets are reacting in real time.
接下来的一段时间，我们得做出关于政策利率的重要决定。
In the period ahead, we've got important decisions to make about the policy rate.
在这段过渡期里，市场本身也需要做出不少判断。
Markets in the intervening period, I think, have quite a bit of, decisions to make.
九比三的投票结果中，克利夫兰的贝丝·哈马克和达拉斯的劳拉·洛根投了反对票。
And the nine three vote included dissents from Beth Hammack of Cleveland, of Laura Logan of Dallas.
他们的立场可能预示着政策未来的走向。
They could be pointing the way to where policies go.
但问题是，既然主席一直承诺要实现物价稳定、重回2%的目标，为什么这次会议没有加息？
But the question is why the rate hike didn't happen at this meeting with the chair constantly promising price stability and getting back to the 2% target.
波托马克基金的斯皮诺扎告诉我，从长期通胀预期、黄金价格在记者会期间的反应来看，市场对主席的决心产生了怀疑。
Spinoza from Potomac River Fund telling me the reaction of the long end of inflation expectations of gold all during the press reveals a market questioning the chairman's resolve.
他已经有两次加息的机会了，可连市场已经预期要加息，他都没行动。
He's had two opportunities to raise rates and hasn't even as the market builds in expectations for rate hikes.
加息可能迟早会来，但问题在于沃什始终回避回答关于他真实想法的基本问题，这让预测变得困难，也让人开始质疑：他到底会不会行动？为什么迟迟不动？
Hike may be coming, but the problem is Warsh's failure to answer basic questions about what he's thinking, why it makes it difficult to predict, and at some point, raises the question about whether he will act and why.
梅丽莎？
Melissa?
史蒂夫，你刚才那番话，是不是使劲儿琢磨了好久？
I feel like you squinted real hard in that thought, Steve.
这已经是我说的第二或第三次听你重复这个观点了，但我真没听出你意思是加息就要来了。
Mean, this is, the second or third time I've listened to that same thought, and I didn't necessarily hear that a rate hike was coming from that.
你是怎么得出这个结论的？
How did you get that message?
我们还有更多工作要做，市场也一样，还有不少事要处理。
It's the more work to do, that we have more work to do, and the market has more work to do.
他之前也说过类似的话，说今天的暂停或决定只是个开始。
There's another similar statement like that where he says that that this pause or this decision today is just the beginning of a process.
所以这暗示着，加息可能还在路上，他或许想再观望一阵子。
So that kinda said maybe it's coming, down the road, and maybe he wants to play for a little time here.
但从市场反应来看——至少目前的初步反应——明天一早他们可能就会有完全不同的判断。
But what we're seeing from the market, at least the initial reaction, they could decide decide differently tomorrow morning.
这种情况一直都有可能。
That's always the potential case.
市场最初的反应是希望看到一些实际行动，或者对美联储的应对方式有个明确的预期。
The initial reaction is the market wanted some sense of either action or a sense of how the Fed would react.
但从这里面根本榨不出什么明确的信息。
And you just can't get a drop from it.
这就像是从石头里挤血一样，老话了。
It's like, you know, the old blood from a stone adage.
是的。
Yeah.
对，Steve。
Yeah, Steve.
这里是迈克·坎托波利斯。
Hey, it's Mike Cantopolis here.
是的。
Yeah.
我很欣赏你这个观点。
I I appreciate that view.
我一直在想，美联储对市场的反应机制到底是什么。
The one thing I'm trying to reconcile is what the Fed's reaction function is to the market.
他根本没给出一个明确的回答。
I mean, he didn't really give a straight answer.
对吧？
Right?
他提到了实际利率上升，以及市场实际上正在收紧金融条件。
He mentioned how real rates are up, how the market is essentially tightening financial conditions for them.
你觉得美联储对国债市场的动向有多敏感？
So how attuned do you think the Fed is to what the Treasury market's doing?
你认为这会影响他们下次会议的决策吗？
And do you think it will impact what they do at the next meeting?
迈克，谢谢你让我知道我不是一个人在困惑，今天发生的事确实让人摸不着头脑，有时候真觉得自己挺孤单的。
Well, Mike, thank you for affirming my confusion and lack of understanding of what happened today because sometimes you feel a little bit alone out there.
但就像我刚才说的，我这次听得特别认真，可收获却少得可怜。
But as I said in the last hour, I never listened so hard and heard so little.
我的问题其实和你刚才问的一模一样。
My my my question was exactly what you're asking.
我最想问的就是：嘿。
My question at the worst was, hey.
你之前让我们关注市场，说你们在密切关注市场动态。
You told us to listen to the markets or that you're listening and watching the markets.
那市场现在在向你们传递什么信号？
What are the markets telling you?
说吧。
Go.
如果你不愿告诉我们你们对数据的反应机制，那就说说你们对市场的反应机制吧——毕竟你们自己刚说过，现在的市场已经不受美联储前瞻指引的干扰了。
If you're not gonna tell us your reaction function relative to the data, then tell us your reaction function relative to the markets that you just told us are now unfiltered or untainted by the Fed forward guidance.
在我看来，正常的回答应该是：两年期国债收益率目前比联邦基金利率高出70个基点。
And to me, the answer would have should normally have been, well, the two year is trading 70 bps above the Fed funds rate.
这说明市场本该更高才对。
That's telling me market should be higher.
顺便说一句，今天短期利率利差也走阔了。
You've also, by the way, had a rise in the, the tip spreads today.
这说明市场对通胀感到担忧。
Told you that the market is concerned about inflation.
再看看三十年期国债的表现。
And then look at the thirty year.
你要是看日内走势，这一笔交易简直血流成河。
The thirty, if you look at intraday, I mean, that is some kind of blood on the street on that particular trade.
你明白我的意思吧？
You know?
现在利差已经到了十一二个基点。
That's that's that's eleven, twelve basis points right now.
这清楚地表明，市场希望有人采取行动。
And then that's telling you the market wants something done here.
但即使什么都没做，只要把未来的路说清楚，我就觉得已经不错了——毕竟我从2011年就开始参加这些记者会，还是第一次看到记者们这么明显的不满。
But even in the absence of doing something, a clear explanation of the road ahead and and every there was even some, I would say, some unusual, and I've been in those press conferences at the very beginning since 2011.
记者们明显表现出了一种不同寻常的挫败感。
I would say some unusual frustration on the part of reporters there.
接下来几个月肯定会很有意思。
Should be interesting months ahead.
谢谢，史蒂夫。
Steve, thank you.
不客气。
Pleasure.
史蒂夫·利斯曼。
Steve Leesman.
我们确实看到市场做出了反应。
So we definitely saw market react.
蒂姆，市场跟你传达了什么信号？
What did the markets tell you, Tim?
这真是个关键的财报日，不过我们一贯的做法是，先抓最重要的新闻。
Boy, you know, this is a really important earnings day, but as we like to do, we we hit the most important story.
这可是个大事件，首先咱们得明确一点，我们之前一直强调的。
I mean, this is a massive story because, first of all, let's just underline what we've been saying.
美联储现在提供的细节更少了，如果因此认为9月的前景更乐观，那就大错特错了。
New paradigm fed less less detail, and it would be a mistake to interpret the lack of forward guidance that actually things are more benign for September.
实际上，我觉得这反而让9月更让人担忧，但市场却解读为：你看美元大跌了。
In fact, if anything, I I think it does set us up for fear in September, but the the market interpretation was, look at how the dollar dove.
黄金却涨了。
Look how gold rose.
你懂的。
You know?
当利率回升、美元却暴跌时，这其实说明美联储落后于形势了，更像是市场在对信贷环境做出反应；要是美元走强，那才说明美联储走在了前头。
So when you have yields back up and the dollar dives, it's it's basically saying the Fed's behind the curve and actually, it's more of a credit response as opposed to, you know, if the dollar rallied, it would be, hey.
美联储其实走在了前头。
The Fed is front forward.
我们正朝着这个方向努力，实际上，我们是在追逐通胀。
We're going after it, and actually, we're we're chasing inflation.
我还想补充一点，沃什提到的两个工具中，他既然没有在利率上动手，那对我来说，他就得在资产负债表上采取行动。
I I would also just say that Warsh's two tools that he's talked about, the fact that he didn't move on interest rates means to me he has to move on the balance sheet.
而资产负债表确实大幅扩张了，我觉得未来几天我们会听到更多关于这方面的讨论。
And the balance sheet has really grown, and I think this is something we're gonna hear a lot more about in the next couple days.
所以情况确实让人困惑，但有趣的是，我和安迪·康斯坦特聊起这件事时，他反复明确地表示，他并不介意长端利率走高。
So it was confusing to be sure, but the thing that I found interesting in talking to Andy Constant about this was he was telling you loud and clear over and over, I'm happy with the long end being higher.
它正在替我完成工作。
It's doing the work for me.
这将有助于抑制通胀。
It's going to this will this will help inflation.
对吧？
Right?
如果他采取了相反的做法，长期国债收益率可能会因为他在解决通胀问题而上涨，那反而可能适得其反。
If he had done the opposite and the and the long end loved that because, oh, he's addressing inflation, that may not have that may have been counterproductive.
你看啊。
This is look.
说实话，我们等这一天已经等很久了，现在该慢慢退出了。
You know, this is a long time it's been coming to for us to unwind this.
这事儿不会轻松，但市场已经在替我们做了。
It's not gonna be easy, but the market is doing it for us.
所以在我看来，他接下来大概会继续这样走。
And so it sounds to me like that's that's the way he's gonna continue.
我们没必要纠结他到底会不会加息，那些小细节根本不是重点。
And for us to wait for this, you know, these small little issues of does he hike, does he not, isn't really where he's going.
你提到资产负债表，这点确实也很关键。
The balance sheet your point about balance sheet, you know, that's important as well.
咱们就看看他们怎么处理资产负债表吧。
We'll see what they do with balance sheet.
对。
Right.
说到这点，市场在替他做事，你看十年期国债收益率，自从上一次美联储会议以来，实际上已经涨了相当于一次加息的幅度。
To that point, in terms of the market doing it for him, I mean, the market the ten year yield is basically up of one hike since the last Fed meeting.
所以，确实能看到这种效果在发生。
So, yeah, we're seeing that in action.
我觉得他想要的，正是凯伦所说的那种情况。
So I think he want he wants what Karen is is talking about.
他希望市场自己发挥作用，也希望我们能自己琢磨明白，而不是指望美联储牵着我们的手。
He wants the market to do it around him, and he wants us to figure it out without the Fed holding our hand.
我们从一开始的水管细流，变成现在连一滴水都看不到，信息完全断了。
So we went from sipping from a wire hose, a wire hose, a fire hose, to getting nothing, not even a trickle of information.
我明白现在确实啥信息都没有，但他对通胀又能做些什么呢？
So I get that we're not getting any information, but what could he do for inflation?
历史告诉我们，当通胀是由供应冲击引起，而不是需求拉动时，75个基点的加息对通胀的影响只有0.1%。
History shows us that 75 basis point hikes are point 1% influence on inflation when it's due to a supply shock, not a demand pull.
所以，当这个问题根本不是美联储造成的，他们能做的其实非常有限。
So there's very few things the Fed can do when the Fed didn't cause this.
你觉得呢？
What do you think?
我觉得市场今天开始走弱了，明天会怎样咱们再看。
So I think I think the market is starting to lose today, and we'll see what happens tomorrow.
我们对市场的信心正在一点点动摇。
We're starting to lose a little bit of faith.
我觉得经济增长和通胀都挺高的。
You know, I think growth and inflation's high.
美联储并没有应对这种高增长和高通胀的情况。
The Fed is is not addressing that higher growth and inflation.
所以长期债券才会下跌。
That's why the long end sold off.
所以两年期债券根本没动。
That's why the two year did nothing.
你听好了。
Listen.
这是在强劲增长背景下出现的长期利率上升，我觉得美联储迟早得应对这个问题。
This is a a bear steepening on the back of strong growth, and I I think at some point, the Fed's going to have to address that.
不过话说回来，他背后有个委员会。
To be fair though, he has a committee.
不是他一个人挥挥魔杖就说要加息。
It's not just him saying waving the wand saying, I'm going to hike rates.
投票结果是九比三。
I mean, it was nine to three.
是的。
Yep.
就算凯文真想这么做，要让其他人全都同意，也得费不少口舌。
That would have been a lot of convincing on the part of Kevin, even if that's what he wanted to happen.
那我们凭什么说对他失去信心了呢？
So how can we actually say we're losing faith in him?
嗯，这个观点确实有道理。
Well, I think that that's a fair point.
我觉得市场是在对委员会的反应机制失去信心，而不是针对个人。
I think it's it's there's a reaction that the market's losing faith in the committee or the reaction function of the committee.
我觉得这跟个人没关系。
I think it's not individual.
我同意这个看法。
I'd agree with that.
明白了。
Okay.
今天确实很重要，原因有很多，但关键在于，标普指数之前一直撑着，最后还是跌破了50点，收盘在低位，市场由此预期利率还可能继续上升。
Well, I I think it's it's an important day for, again, a lot of reasons, but I you know, ultimately, the the fact that the market closed on the lows, the S and P, which was holding out and broke through the 50, and the response to that rates could go higher.
我觉得市场其实是在逼迫美联储。
And I think, again, the the market is trying to push the Fed.
不管他现在用的是什么策略，这一点很清楚。
Whatever we're saying is is his tactic here.
毫无疑问，今天是个关键的市场日，一些之前表现稳健的股票也开始出现回调。
There's no question that this is a market day, and it's a day when you started to see some of those names that have been defensive give some ground.
如果市场上对利率敏感，那股市的定价根本没考虑到这一点。
And if there's interest rate sensitivity out there, equities are not priced for it.
这一点毫无疑问。
There's there's no question about it.
利率上升这个趋势其实已经持续一段时间了，我明白。
And this is a case where that upward move in yields has been going on for for, I I I understand.
有人说过去两年利率都没动，但我要说，从十月开始，利率已经明显进入上升通道。
We could say over two years, yields have done nothing, but I could say from October, we have an uptrend in terms of where interest rates are going.
我觉得，接下来的走势阻力最小的方向就是继续上涨。
And I I think it's the past the path of least resistance.
我们还是得聊聊Meta的股票。
We do wanna get to Meta shares.
现在它们正处于盘后交易的最低点，公司业绩不及预期，股价已经跌了近10%。
They are at their after hour session lows right now, down by almost 10% after the company missed earnings expectations.
这家社交媒体巨头的营收预期也令人失望，同时还下调了全年资本支出的预算，只是把下限稍微抬高了一点。
The social media giant also delivering disappointing revenue guidance and narrowing its capex spend for the year by raising the bottom end of the range.
电话会议现在正在进行。
The call is underway right now.
朱莉·沃什手里有这些数据。
Julie Warsh has got those numbers.
朱莉？
Julia?
是的。
Yeah.
这里涉及多个因素，梅丽莎。
A number of factors here, Melissa.
正如你提到的，公司上调了全年资本支出的下限，导致股价下跌；第三季度营收指引低于预期，利润也未达标。
As you mentioned, shares trading lower on the company raising the lower end of its capex range for the year, third quarter revenue guidance below expectations, and an earnings miss.
就在刚才的财报电话会上，首席执行官马克·扎克伯格表示，人工智能正在提升用户体验和广告效果，同时也开辟了新的收入来源。
Now on the earnings call just now, CEO Mark Zuckerberg saying that AI is improving the user experience and ad performance, saying it's also creating new potential revenue streams.
扎克伯格说：‘我们看到了面向企业市场的巨大机会，比如向企业销售API、商业助手，甚至直接向大客户出售计算资源和其他我们正在开发的服务。’
Zuckerberg saying, quote, we see a large enterprise opportunity to sell to businesses, including APIs, business agents, potentially selling compute directly in other services that we're building for large customers.
他刚才还回应了一个问题，表示他们相信，出售智能服务的利润率会远高于直接出售算力。
He also said in response to a question just now, we believe that there will continue to be a significantly higher margin on selling intelligence rather than selling compute directly.
当然，我们也认为出售算力有很大的机会。
We think that there's a big opportunity, obviously, to sell compute as well.
扎克伯格详细谈到了Meta One订阅服务将推出多种定价方案和层级，还对智能眼镜表达了乐观看法，但市场似乎并不买账，股价目前下跌超过10%。
Zuckerberg going into some detail about how they're gonna be offering several pricing options and tiers for their Meta one subscription offering, sharing some bullish commentary about the glasses as well, but the stock does not seem to like this call's shares now trading down over 10%.
梅丽莎？
Melissa?
朱莉亚，我们目前有没有搞清楚，Meta对出售多余算力的看法是什么？这是一项可持续的业务，还是只是眼下趁机而为？
Do we have an understanding yet, Julia, as to how Meta is viewing selling excess compute, whether this is of a sustainable business or if this is just sort of an opportunistic thing to do at this moment in time?
现在就下结论还太早了，梅丽莎。
Seems like it's way too early to to weigh in on that, Melissa.
他们根本没透露过这方面的任何计划。
I mean, they haven't shared their plans around this at all.
他们能走的路太多了。
There's so many different ways they could do this.
扎克伯格说，他们确实打算自己用掉大部分算力，但多余的产能确实是个机会。
Zuckerberg saying they do believe they will use the majority of the capacity themselves, but that there is this opportunity for the excess capacity.
他提前透露，后续会分享更多细节，我想那时候我们才能判断，这是否真能成为公司长期稳定的新增收入来源。
So he's teased ahead that they're gonna be sharing more details, and I think that's when we'll get a sense of whether this could really be a long term meaningful new revenue stream for the company.
好的。
Alright.
朱莉娅，麻烦你继续跟进，随时告诉我们进展。
Julia, continue to keep us posted, please.
朱莉娅·博尔斯坦报道的Meta，目前股价跌幅已经超过百分之十。
Julia Borsten on Meta, those shares are down in excess of 10% right now.
凯伦，你对这个季度怎么看，还有这个出售计划——
Karen, what did make of this quarter and So the sell
季度业绩本身还行，但这跟眼下这事根本没关系。
the quarter was fine, but that has nothing to do with this really.
就是说，以前他们主营业务那块儿。
So, you know, in the business, what used to be their main business.
对吧？
Right?
家庭日常使用量稍微下降了一点，但其实也还行，不过这并不是关键。
So family family daily act was down a little bit, but, you know, it was fine, but that's not the point.
关键是资本支出数字让人失望。
The point is the capex number's disappointing.
我想，比起他们之前上调预算的方式，现在至少是落在了预期区间内。
I guess it's better than how they raised them more as opposed to just being sort of in the range.
但你看看债券市场早些时候的情况就知道了。
But just, you know, looking at what happened to the bond market early Yes.
所有东西都变得更贵了。
Everything just got more expensive.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Mhmm.
所以他们要么得去成本更高的债务市场融资，要么就得转向股权市场，而现在的股权市场也明显不那么友好了。
So if they they can either go to a more expensive debt market or they can go to a now very getting expensive, not very, but a less favorable equity market for sure.
这样一来，我不知道会不会让整体的节奏慢下来，也许不会直接影响到Meta，但对所有需要借钱的人来说，情况确实更难了。
So that sort of I don't know if that would should slow the wheels down, maybe not just for Meta, more broadly as For anybody who has to borrow.
没错。
Right.
所有需要借钱的人。
Who has to borrow.
如果真因此放缓了，我觉得他们能公布的最好消息就是：我们正在大幅放缓步伐，这对股价反而是好事。
So if that ends up slowing I actually think the best thing they could have reported is we're slowing things down materially for the stock.
没错。
Right.
不过他们可能会说，不会吧。
Now maybe they would say, no.
不是针对长期业务。
Not for the longer longer business.
我不知道该怎么说，市场其实真的很失望。
I don't know how I mean, the street is really, you know, very disappointed.
我不清楚这种状况还能再被容忍多久。
I don't know how much longer it can be sort of given a pass.
这根本算不上宽容。
This isn't even a pass.
这可是跌了百分之十啊。
This is I mean, down 10%.
这已经很严重了。
That's significant.
确实非常严重，尤其是考虑到之前的位置。
It is very significant, particularly where it's come from before.
再说这时间点，最近不是刚有债券发行定价的问题吗？定价比之前Hyperion交易还高，再加上利率又往上走了。
Mean, time the timing of it in terms of the reports about, you know, the most recent so a balance bond sale having to be priced, you know, above what it had priced the Hyperion deal, and then you have this uptick in rates here.
然后
And then
黑石现在承担了大部分债务。
you have BlackRock doing most most of the debt.
对。
Mhmm.
没错。
Yeah.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，作为Meta的股东，虽然现在持股减少了，但这也算是一种自我对冲，这已经是我的第四或第五个仓位了。
So, yeah, this is you know, as a Meta holder, it's it's self hedging in that it's less now, but this is now my fourth or fifth position Mhmm.
以前它可是排第一的。
Where it used to be first.
以前它可是摇钱树。
It used to be a cash cow.
以前可好得很。
It used to be great.
完全是另一回事了。
Different story.
收益率曲线变陡，对超大规模云服务商的支出造成了压力，也压缩了利润空间。
Yield yield curve steepening, not helping the hyperscaler spent and and tightening the bottom end of the range.
他们是真在卖满负荷的容量，还是卖得超出了实际能力？
But are they selling capacity or are they selling over capacity?
没错。
Right.
我的意思是，听到这些真让人遗憾，毕竟我们错过了28%的广告增长，这让他们在核心业务上遥遥领先，增长最快，现在这个业务其实挺有看头的。
I mean, just wonder, you know, when I hear that, what's too bad is that we miss out on a 28% ad growth, which makes them far and away the best and the fastest growing and their core business is kind of exciting right now.
但我确实觉得这值得警惕。
But I do think it's something to be concerned.
我觉得监管风险也被提出来了，有不小的可能性会突然爆发。
I also just think the regulatory issues were flagged as being something that had material chance to spike.
我们过去从来不用担心谷歌或Meta的监管框架，就算他们时不时被罚款，全球范围也都没当回事。
Know we typically have never worried about the regulatory framework for Google or for Meta, especially around the world when they're getting fined this and that.
但这些针对青少年问题的诉讼，至少他们自己也承认了。
But some of these lawsuits in terms of the youth dynamic that that at least is and they communicated them.
我意识到他们不得不公开回应这些事。
I realized they have to get out there and talk about them.
所以我觉得这里面的问题真不少。
So I think there's a fair amount here.
顺便说一下，股价已经跌到5.20美元，正好碰上三月二十七日的低点。
Note, by the way, trades right down to $5.20, which is that March 27 low.
看看这里能不能稳住，但这确实是个关键位置。
Let's see where we hold, but that's a key level.
他们根本没法从核心业务上分散风险。
There's no diversifying away from their core business.
他们的收入有98%都来自广告。
They make 98% of their revenues from ads.
所以多元化根本没什么用。
So to diversify is nothing.
只是锦上添花而已。
It's incremental.
他们花的钱太多了。
They're spending too much money.
他们得来个短暂的效率提升期，也许一个季度就够了。
They have to have sort of a pseudo year of efficiency, but maybe a quarter of efficiency.
我们该怎么看待收益率上升对这些项目融资的影响？
How should we think about the impact of rising yields on the financing of these projects?
我觉得这是个非常关键的因素。
I think it's a huge a huge factor.
你听我说，这周早些时候的那笔债务发行，认购倍数才1.7倍。
You know, listen, the the earlier debt offering you saw earlier this week was only 1.7 times oversubscribed.
在债券市场里，这简直微不足道。
That's like nothing in the bond world.
他们之前才四倍左右
They were four or
今年早些时候可是五倍。
five times earlier in the year.
你听我说。
Listen.
收益率上升会影响估值倍数，也会影响债券销售。
Higher yields affect the multiple, affects debt sales.
我觉得，目前这环境对超大规模云服务商来说并不理想。
You know, this I don't think this is a good environment for the hyperscalers at the moment.
没错。
Yep.
咱们聊聊微软吧。
Let's get to Microsoft here.
盘后交易中，微软股价上涨了近2%。
The shares are higher by almost 2% after hours.
这家公司的Azure云业务收入同比增长了43%。
The company's Azure cloud business grew revenue 43% year on year.
发布会再过五分钟就开始了，准确说是十五分钟后。
The call kicks off in just about five minutes fifteen minutes time.
凯特·罗尼那里有这份报告。
Kate Rooney's got the report there.
凯特？
Kate?
嗨，梅丽莎。
Hey, Melissa.
微软本季度的云业务增长强劲，至少在营收上超出了预期。
So Microsoft was helped by strong cloud growth in the quarter, a beat on the top line at least.
看看总营收，比去年同期增长了18%。
Look at total revenue that was up 18% from a year ago.
每股收益的情况就有点复杂了。
EPS was a little bit messier.
我们不会拿这个数字来比较。
We're not gonna compare that number.
它通过持有AI巨头Anthropic的股份获得了32亿美元的收益，同时还是OpenAI的最大股东，从那笔投资中又赚了7美分。
It did notch at $3,200,000,000 gain from its stake in AI giant, Anthropic, and it is also OpenAI's largest shareholder, 7¢ gain from its stake in that company.
不过，Azure的收入增长超出了预期。
Azure revenue though, that growth was better than expected.
这才是关键指标——云业务增长了43%，首次突破了1000亿美元的收入大关。
That was the key number to watch, 43% growth in the cloud business, and it passed a $100,000,000,000 in revenue for the first time.
Copilot的表现也很亮眼。
Copilot also a bright spot.
付费用户数已经超过了三千万。
Paid seats there past 30,000,000.
如果回看上个财年的第二季度，大概在两千万左右，准确说是第三季度。
If you look back q two, it was around 20,000,000 or q three rather, fiscal year.
所以这相当于增加了两千万，是个不小的跃升。
So that was 20,000,000 meaningful jump there.
微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉在新闻稿中表示，这反映出客户对微软助力其人工智能转型的信心。
C t CEO Satya Nadella said in the press release, this reflects some confidence that customers are placing in Microsoft to power their AI transformation.
生产力与业务部门也是如此，像Office和LinkedIn的收入增长了14%，同时得益于公司史上首次自愿退休计划，微软的成本也有所降低。
The productivity and business segment too, so think of Office, LinkedIn saw a 14% jump in revenue growth, also lower than expected cost for Microsoft thanks to its first ever voluntary retirement program.
Xbox的收入下降了大约10%。
Xbox revenue did decline about 10%.
我们很快会在接下来的电话会议中对这笔资本支出的讨论有更清晰的认识，梅尔。
We do expect to get a bit more clarity on this entire capex discussion on the call coming up soon, Mel.
好的。
Alright.
谢谢，凯特。
Thank you, Kate.
凯特·鲁尼。
Kate Rooney.
我们还得记住，微软目前还没有给出任何指引。
And we have to keep in mind that we still we don't have any guidance from Microsoft.
每个季度股票都会这样上下波动。
So this happens every single quarter where the stock is moving in some direction.
电话会议一开，半小时后可能完全是另一番景象。
Conference call gets underway, and it could be a completely different story, you know, in a half hour's time.
但话又说回来，我们还是在这里。
But still, here we are.
目前来看，资本支出确实和他们之前说的一样。
Capex looks at this point to be exactly what they said it was gonna be.
没有上调。
No raise.
现阶段，这算是好事。
And for now, that's good.
Azure的表现超出了预期。
Azure's better than expected.
所以，
So,
是的
Yeah.
我觉得Azure的业绩甚至超过了市场预期的41左右，也就是40到41这个区间。
I think this was even better than the whisper number on Azure, which was kind of 41 ish, 40 to 41.
所以我觉得这一点很重要。
So I I think it's important.
他们得让大家看到，运营自由现金流确实是实实在在的自由现金流。
I think it's gonna be important for them to show that the operating free cash flow comes actually is free cash flow.
也就是说，这次得转正。
In other words, they come in on the positive side.
上个季度他们还是负的。
They were negative last quarter.
大家都很想听到这个消息。
I think people wanna hear that.
Copilot啊，说实话，我也不太确定。
Copilot, I mean, you know, I don't know.
他们之前是不是故意压低了那些数据？
Were they were they sandbagging those earlier numbers?
这么短的时间内，增长幅度真是巨大。
I mean, that's huge, huge growth in a short amount of time.
咱们还是回到苹果的故事吧，苹果可没像微软那样大手大脚地花钱。
And I think I let's just bring it back to the Apple story, is it it Apple hasn't been, spending like a drunken sailor that maybe Microsoft could be accused of.
但你可以说，最终还是微软的平台，在企业市场和零售领域占据了主导地位。
But you can make an argument that ultimately, it's Microsoft's platform, with enterprise and essentially in the retail community to to to own it.
而且Copilot迟早会成为不可忽视的力量。
And that and that copilot eventually will be something that has to be reckoned with.
所以，这种增长表明，微软凭借自身的地位，依然非常有优势。
So, I think that kind of growth tells you that Microsoft, because of who they are, is still very well positioned.
是的。
Yeah.
每季度新增付费用户超过一千万。
Quarter on quarter, it's up 10,000,000 more than 10,000,000 paid
百分之五十。
50%.
没错。
Right.
而前一年是百分之十五。
And then from the previous year, was 15.
对。
Yep.
但我们当时还嘲笑微软只有百分之十五。
But we were ridiculing Microsoft for 15.
所以现在虽然增长了，但我们还是没完全
So Here, it's a But we still don't
不清楚具体的座位经济情况，但看起来，他们的座位增长和Azure的强劲表现，让这些数据显得不那么突出。
know what the seat economics are, but it looks like that's a little bit of rear window eclipsed by both them outperforming on the seat growth and Azure growing above.
我记得预期是百分之三十八。
I think it was supposed to be estimates were 38%.
增长了4343%。
It was 4343% growth.
从技术上讲，它回到了应有的水平。
Technically, it bounced where it should have.
自2023年以来，已经翻了五倍，甚至可能六倍。
Five times, maybe even six since 2023.
我觉得现在其实是个不错的买入时机。
I I think this is actually becoming a buy right now.
你怎么看？
What do you think?
到目前为止，这一季度的表现确实非常出色。
I I think very good quarter for sure of so far of all of them.
我们还剩下一些没公布。
We got some left to go.
最让我意外的是，它表现得这么好，考虑到眼下这种整体削减开支的氛围，它本该涨得更多才对。
I think the best one it's surprising to me, and actually, it's not up more given the kind of day that we're having and the whole sort of rethinking about spend everywhere.
展开剩余字幕（还有 419 条）
资本支出保持现在这个水平，已经很不错了。
This staying with capex as it is, that's a win.
考虑到它之前经历了一段这么艰难的时期，我觉得它本该涨得更多才对。
Given how, you know, it's had a pretty tough run, I think it actually should be up more of
自2022年以来最差的上半年。
a Worst first half since '22.
自2022年以来最差的上半年。
Worst first half since '22.
我的意思是，
I mean,
这可是微软啊。
it's it's From Microsoft.
表现太糟糕了。
It's been awful.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
不过，IGV整体来说，是的。
But, IGV in general Yes.
一直在反弹。
Has been rallying.
表现还不错。
Doing okay.
对。
Right.
而且这也是
That's and that's
一直困扰他们的地方。
what's plagued them as well.
综合来看，我原以为他们的表现会更好。
All of that together, I would have thought it would be doing even better.
我的意思是，从理论上讲，IGV，说实话，我们还信这个‘硬件吞噬软件’的说法吗？但如果大型云服务商被迫缩减规模，或者这个趋势放缓，会不会反而让最近已经有所回升的IGV受益更多？
I mean, IGV in theory, I mean, I don't know if we still believe this narrative, you know, hardware eats software, but in a world where hyperscalers are could be forced to pair back or that story slows, could that then further benefit IGV, which has already been sort of perking up of late?
我也说不准。
I mean, I don't know.
是的。
Yeah.
正如史蒂夫提到的，市场其实已经透露了一些信号，微软就是个例子。
Mean, and as Steve pointed out, mean, the the market's kinda telling you a couple things, and they've told you that with Microsoft.
我觉得现在入手一点还是值得的。
And and I think it has been worth nibbling.
我觉得继续小幅布局依然有道理。
I think it continues to be worth nibbling.
而且很多情况，我们昨晚跟卡特尔聊的时候也说过，图表上已经明显降低了风险。
And I think a lot of the story, we said this even with Carter last night, kinda kinda de risked on the chart Mhmm.
整个软件板块都是如此。
And and the entire software space.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得最大的风险在于，今年芯片行业显然是领头羊，你看台湾、三星、韩国这些芯片制造商的表现。
I mean, I think the big the big risk out there, I mean, chips is obviously led this year as we saw in, you know, Taiwan and Samsung and and and Korea, South Korea and everything else, the chip makers.
这一切都建立在巨额资本支出的基础上。
I mean, all of that is on the back of massive capex.
如果你看到资本支出开始收缩，进入效率年，或者像微软今晚透露的那样，大型云服务商的资本支出放缓甚至稳定下来，我不确定这对芯片股未来会是好事。
And if you start to see capex getting reeled in, if you get the year of efficiency, if you get sort of slower or even stable capex from some of the hyperscales, which I think we're hearing tonight with Microsoft, I'm I'm not entirely sure that's going to be great for the chip stocks going forward.
我觉得芯片的长期逻辑应该还在，但短期内可能会有一些波动。
I think the secular story is probably intact, for chips, but, you know, you get some some more near term noise around that.
接下来，财报季还在继续。
Coming up, the earnings parade continues.
高通、Chipotle 和 星巴克在发布财报后股价也有变动，我们带来了这些电话会议的最新动态。
Qualcomm, Chipotle, and Starbucks also on the move after their reports, bringing the very latest from those conference calls.
另外，两家医疗健康公司发布业绩后，股价走势截然相反。
Plus, two health care names moving in opposite directions after their results.
Humana公司歇了假，而GE医疗却交出了亮眼成绩单。
Watch Humana took a sick day, and GE Healthcare got a clean bill of health.
马上回来，别走开，两分钟后继续。
Straight ahead, don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.
什么
What
是什么让你有信心去做一件前所未有的事？
made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性，正在改变行业格局。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中一位
One of
我最欣赏的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有各种各样的表现形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，还是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，想干大事，就得有大格局。
Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持 CNBC 的《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新一期，各大播客平台都能收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回到《快速交易》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
高通公司发布了最新财报预警。
We've got an earnings alert on Qualcomm.
这家芯片制造商的股价在业绩参差不齐、前景指引疲软后下跌了。
The chipmaker shares down after mixed results and soft guidance.
克里斯蒂娜·帕克斯和Evolus公司带来了最新详情。
Christina Parks and Evolus is here with the details.
克里斯蒂娜。
Christina.
高通的核心业务，你提到过，由于智能手机市场疲软，本季度营收和利润双双下滑，而这正是他们目前的主要业务。同时，内存价格上涨推高了整体成本，进一步压制了需求。
Well, Qualcomm's core business, you mentioned it shrinking revenue profits both falling this quarter as the smartphone market weakened, and that's the majority of their business right now, squeezed by rising memory prices that are just lifting cost across the board and cutting into demand.
手机芯片的销售额，也就是智能手机芯片的销量，同比下跌了百分之二十。
Handset chip sales, that's the smartphone chip sales dropped 20% from a year ago.
首席执行官克里斯蒂亚诺·阿曼告诉我，即便是高端机型的买家，现在也在转向更低端的产品，他称之为严峻的内存和供应链环境。
CEO Cristiano Aman told me buyers are actually trading down even within the premium tier, pointing to what he called a challenging memory and supply environment.
高通的应对方式就是把成本转嫁给客户。
Qualcomm's answer is to pass those costs on.
从9月1日起，全线产品涨价，涨幅达到两位数，与同行保持一致。
Prices go up across the board September 1 double digits in line with peers.
他们刚刚在电话会议中就是这么说的。
That's what they just said on the call.
供货太紧张了，当我问CFO关于苹果下个季度收入下滑比预期还快的事时，他说这反而是好事，因为能腾出产能去卖别的地方。
Supply is so tight that when I asked the CFO about Apple revenue falling faster than expected next quarter, currently q four, he told me he's happy about it because it frees up capacity to sell elsewhere.
管理层在财报电话会上也提到，安卓业务的增长足以弥补苹果的损失，而且来得比预期早得多。
Management also saying on the earning call right now that the Android business should more than offset that Apple loss that it came a lot sooner than expected.
高通希望投资者别只盯着手机业务。
And Qualcomm wants investors looking past phones.
公司表示，非手机芯片的销售额将从现在的24%跃升至明年的60%以上，首次成为公司芯片业务的主力。
The company says non handset chip sales jump from 24 now to more than 60% next year becoming the majority of its chip business for the first time.
各位明白吗？
Guys?
是不是像汽车和物联网这类业务，Christina？
Would that be like auto and Internet of things kind of stuff, Christina?
主要是这些领域。
Centers.
更具体地说，别忘了他们还签下了两家中国的大客户。
More specifically, remember they signed up, two big customers in China too.
他们正在研发定制芯片。
They're making custom chips.
所以像ARM这样的公司也开始进入实实在在的芯片业务了。
So everybody like ARM is entering business, the actual tangible chip chip business.
没错。
Right.
真厉害。
Wow.
明白了。
Okay.
克里斯蒂娜，谢谢。
Christina, thank you.
克里斯蒂娜·帕克斯，下跌百分之六点五，蒂姆。
Christina Parks Down and six and a half percent, Tim.
还下跌了百分之四十，已经体现在财报里了。
And down 40% into the print.
没错。
And Yeah.
这又是另一个被AI热潮捧起来的名字。
And so and this was another one of these names that got the AI euphoria around it.
他们似乎只在谈论离开苹果之后的生活。
All they seem to be doing is trying to talk about their life after Apple.
到2029财年，非手机业务的收入将占他们总收入的三分之二。
Non handset revs will be two thirds of their revenue by fiscal twenty nine.
但在那之前，听起来前景并不太乐观。
Well, it doesn't sound like a great run before then.
他们刚提到，非手机业务确实增长了24%，这倒是事实。
It sounds like yes, non handset is growing 24%, they just noted that.
听说他们70%的芯片用在了三星设备上，这听起来不错，但说实话，我也没多激动，即使有了这个进展。
It is nice to hear that they're 70% Snapdragon 70% of essentially Samsung devices, but you know, I'm not that excited even after this move.
我觉得物联网和汽车业务能帮他们把收入占比推到23%左右。
I think Internet of Things and and car automotive gets you to around 23% of revenues.
但还是不足以真正改变股票走势的大方向。
Still not enough to really change the the spectrum for for the the trajectory for the stock.
从技术面看，今年五月股价还在250美元，但很可能要跌到一半左右才会找到支撑。
On But a technical level, back in May, it was trading at $250 It's probably gonna get down to a level where you're cut in half before it finds some support.
跌一半
Cut in
从
half from
不是从2.5美元起算。
here, not from $2.50.
是从2.5美元。
From $2.50.
所以我觉得，如果股价在那之前反弹，可能还会有大约10%的下跌空间。
So I think you have another, another you know, 10 or so, maybe if it if it bounces before that level.
但我认为125到135美元会成为股价的支撑位。
But I would look for a $125,135 to be support in the stock.
所以你没必要去接这个下落的刀子。
So you don't need to catch this knife.
图表看起来太糟了。
The chart looks gross.
这是行话。
That's a technical term.
太差了。
It's terrible.
简直糟糕透顶。
It's horrendous.
真恶心。
Ew.
真恶心。
Ew.
真恶心。
Ew.
真恶心。
Ewie.
我平时就这么说。
That's what I like to say.
今天值得关注的热门股有YGE医疗，而Humana和宝洁则下跌。
Coming up, the fast movers on our radar today, YGE Healthcare pop while Humana and P and G drop.
接下来就是这个。
That's next.
另外，今晚有哪些重要的科技行业动态，我们也会关注。
Plus, check on tonight's biggest tech reports.
一位顶级投资经理即将加入我们，分享他对微软和Meta的看法，以及到目前为止财报季给我们带来的启示。
A top portfolio manager will join us straight ahead with his take on Microsoft Meta and what we have learned from earning season so far.
您现在收看的是《快钱》直播，现场位于时代广场的纳斯达克市场中心，广告后马上回来。
You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square back right after this.
什么
What
是什么让你相信自己能做成前人没做过的事？
made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从来不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性，正在重塑格局。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最欣赏的一条建议是：想想你的上司的上司需要什么。
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有无数种表现形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，还是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，要想做成大事，就得有大格局。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持 CNBC 的变革者与权力人物节目。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.
新节目每周二上线，各大播客平台均可收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回到《速赢财经》。
Welcome back to fast money.
美联储公布决议后，股市大幅下挫。
Stocks sharply lower after today's Fed decision.
道琼斯指数下跌超过1100点。
The Dow losing over 1,100 points.
标普500下跌1.5%，纳斯达克下跌1.75%。
The SIB down a percent and a half with the Nasdaq dropping one and three quarters of a percent.
今天交易中，一些个股波动剧烈。
Some names seeing big moves during the trading day.
宝洁公司因销售额低于预期，股价下跌近2%。
Procter and Gamble down almost 2% after sales came in below estimates.
这家日用消费品巨头还对2027财年给出了谨慎的前景预期。
The consumer staples giant also giving a soft outlook for fiscal twenty twenty seven.
Humana股价下跌6%，尽管其营收和利润均超预期，但公司维持全年指引不变，未能达到投资者的期待。
Humana sinking 6% despite top and bottom line beats the insurer leaving full year guidance unchanged, falling short of investors' expectations.
GE医疗股价飙升12%，因盈利超出预期，并重申了全年指引。
And GE Healthcare soaring 12% after topping earnings estimates and reaffirming full year guidance.
还有一些在财报后出现明显波动的股票值得关注。
And some more after earnings movers are watching.
Carvana因全年指引远低于华尔街预期而下跌，暗示下半年增长将基本停滞。
Carvana sinking after full year guidance came in well below Wall Street expectations, now implying a relatively flat second half of the year.
ARM控股股价也走低，尽管其营收和利润均超预期。
ARM Holdings also lower despite top and bottom line beats.
这家芯片设计公司表示，客户在2027和2028财年的需求总和已超过20亿美元。
A chip designer saying customer demand now exceeds $2,000,000,000 across fiscal years 2027 and 2028.
Robinhood即便收入超出预期，股价仍继续下跌。
And finally, Robinhood dropping even after revenues came in ahead of expectations.
加密交易收入同比下滑了38%。
Crypto trading revenues down 38% year over year.
顺便说一下，ARM和Robinhood的首席执行官明天都会上CNBC。
The CEOs of both ARM and Robinhood, by the way, will be on CNBC tomorrow.
那边有不少股票值得关注。
A lot of stocks there.
你打算交易哪只？
What do you wanna trade?
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我觉得宝洁在这个时候表现不佳，挺让人失望的。如果消费者开始转向更便宜的日用品，那可不是好兆头。
I mean, it's I thought Procter was kind of a kind of a letdown when in this environment, if you see people trading down in staples, that's that's a problem.
所以你得去挑一只最靠谱的日用品股。
So you have to go hunt your best best staple stock there.
还有Robinhood，以前大家觉得他们是稳重派。
And one other one in Robinhood, they were seen as the adult in the room.
他们算是多元化的投资标的。
They're a diversified play.
比其他加密货币标的强多了。
Better than the other crypto plays.
看到那个走势图真让人震惊，没想到他们跌得这么惨。
So shocking to see the chart there and shocking to see them down.
通用医疗。
GE Healthcare.
没错。
Boom.
只要是通用电气旗下的公司。
Any spawn of GE.
没错。
Boom.
也不是说每一个都行。
Is just, I mean, not every single one.
这个倒是
This one has
不过还得再等等。
to be done though.
但市场需求确实非常强劲。
But, I mean, very healthy end market demand.
收入增长不错。
I mean, revenue growth, good.
PCS部门的客户之前遇到一些供应链问题，但这是上个季度的事了。
A little what PCS patient clients are they had some supply chain issues, but I it's another quarter.
利润率挺高的。
I mean, there's good margins.
干得漂亮。
Nicely done.
是啊，我也注意到这只股票了。我手里还留着一点GE医疗的股票，是当年GE分拆时分到的那批资产之一，之前一直表现落后。但现在讨论AI如何优化供应链、提升利润率，这正是我们想听到的，尤其是在医疗行业。
Yeah, I thought that one caught my eye too, and I have a stub of GE Healthcare as part of this little basket of goodies that GE gave us when they split it up, and it's been one of the laggards, but the discussion about AI helping supply chain and AI actually being a margin enhancement is exactly what you wanna hear, especially across the health care sector.
这算是一个突破性的反弹，我觉得你一直有关注它。
So this is a this is kind of a breakout pop, and I think you follow it.
宝洁因为原材料成本造成的十亿美元税后影响，我觉得这才是真正的重点。
The the 1,000,000,000 after tax impact for Procter and Gamble due to raw materials, to me, that was a big story.
你知道吧？
You know?
这说明日用品公司根本没法把成本转嫁给消费者。
It's showing that these staples companies just can't pass through costs.
通胀真的开始发力了。
Inflation's biting.
我不确定这算不算个好兆头，因为我觉得成本压力短期内根本降不下来。
And, you know, I'm not sure if that's really, you know, a a good story going forward because I don't see that really declining.
还有就是，股价的大幅波动和暴跌，都暗示着某些变化正在发生。
And then the other thing I'll just throw out there is, you know, the the beats and then the big down days are are suggestive of something going on.
我觉得原因在于，我们之前一直处在一个流动性过剩的市场里。
And I think it's that, listen, we've been in a market that's been fueled by excess liquidity.
估值本来就偏高，现在光是业绩超预期已经不够看了。
Valuations are reasonably high, and and you gotta do more than just beat now.
我觉得到目前为止，这个财报季正好凸显了这一点。
And and I think this earnings season so far, that's it's highlighting that for me.
今晚的重点科技公司财报中，微软的电话会议刚刚开始。
Coming up even more in tonight's key tech earnings, Microsoft's call just getting underway.
T。
T.
罗素投资的王彤将在本广告结束后，为我们带来对今晚市场动态的点评。
Rowe Price's Tony Wang will join us with his reaction to all of tonight's moves right after this break.
刚才快节奏的部分错过了吗？
Missed a moment of fast?
随时随地都能收听我们。
Catch us anytime on the go.
关注《快钱》播客。
Follow the Fast Money Podcast.
广告结束后马上回来。
We're back right after this.
我们来看看盘后交易的情况如何。
Taking a check on how we are doing in the after hour session.
Meta的股价下跌了大约9%。
Meta shares down by about 9%.
微软股价上涨了2.5%。
Microsoft up two and a half percent.
微软刚刚才开始它的财报电话会。
Microsoft just kicked off its call moments ago.
T。
T.
富达的王彤现在加入我们，谈谈他对这些财报的看法，还有更多分析，他负责管理公司的科技与科学基金。
Rowe Price's Tony Wang joins us now with his take on, these earnings and and much more he manages the firm's science and tech fund.
王彤，很高兴你今天能来。
Tony, great to have you with us.
你持有这两家公司的股票。
You own both of these stocks.
你怎么看Meta的这次下跌？
What do you make of Meta's decline here?
Meta还需要向投资者传达什么，才能真正让人信服他们的愿景？
What more does Meta need to communicate to investors to to really sell the vision that they have?
是的，我觉得有几点值得注意。
Yeah, think there's a few things.
首先，他们的核心业务必须保持健康，才能维持运营。
One, I think that their core business needs to be remain really healthy to pay the bills.
其次，他们正在布局的新业务——无论是面向中小企业、企业客户，还是消费领域——市场可能都在问：重点到底在哪？回报又从哪里来？
And then number two, I would say these new businesses that they're starting, whether in SMB or enterprise in the consumer space, like, I think there probably, is a question of like where the focus is from the market and where the ROI is gonna come from.
所以现在市场对这些方面高度关注，这正是当前大家看待Meta的方式。
And so I think there's a lot of scrutiny here, and and that's how I think the market is is looking at it right now.
你对Meta的财报感到失望吗？
Are you disappointed with Meta's earnings?
对这次电话会议到目前为止的表现，你感到失望吗？
Are you disappointed what's happening on the conference call so far?
如果你打算花这么多钱，那就必须得干得漂亮。
I think that if you're gonna be spending at this level, you have to really execute well.
你得展现出收入加速增长，利润率也在提升。
You have to show accelerating top line, improving margins.
我觉得我们现在处于这样一个阶段：要想继续推进，就得靠外部融资。
And I think we're in this phase where it's like you gotta raise external capital in order to continue that.
所以在这种规模下，更得把这笔新增资本用好。
And so think it's even more important, at this level to spend that incremental capital.
嗨，托尼。
Hey, Tony.
我是蒂姆。
It's Tim.
感谢你加入我们。
Thanks for joining us.
我想说的，正好就是这一点。
And and I guess that's where I wanted to go.
我的意思是，到底在什么情况下，你会因为资产负债表的问题，或者说是自由现金流的缺失，而重新评估这项投资的吸引力？
I mean, at what point do you make a change in your assessment of the attractiveness of of the investment based upon the balance sheet or at least the lack of free cash flow.
正如我们之前讨论的，数据中心和资本支出的成本在不断上升，对你来说，有没有一个临界点，让你觉得这家公司应有的估值倍数已经变了？
And and as we've talked about what the costs for financing data center and capex are growing, is there is there a threshold for you where this the multiple you believe this company should trade at has changed.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，你提到的那些表外负债确实不少。
I mean, I think there's a lot of off balance sheet obligations that you're pointing out.
另外，未来几年还会有一大笔折旧费用陆续体现，这会直接影响利润。
In addition, you know, there is a good amount of, you know, depreciation coming through over the next few years, and that's gonna hit earnings.
对吧？
Right?
所以我觉得这其实是一把双刃剑。
So I think that it it acts like a two way street.
如果你增长势头强劲，产品契合市场需求，AI的使用和普及也表现突出，那花钱就是值得的。
If you're growing really well, you have great product fit, you show, AI usage and adoption, then I think it's it's great to be spending.
但如果你执行得不好，情况就会反过来，变成一种负担。
But, I think that if you're not executing well, it can act it can go the other way and act as leverage.
你觉得Meta未来怎么为这些似乎没完没了的项目筹集资金？
How do you think about Meta's ability to raise capital going forward for all these projects, which don't seem to be ending at this point?
昨天有不少报道说，他们最近的融资利率比去年十月为Hyperion融资时高出不少，你怎么看？
There's a lot of press yesterday about, you know, their most recent offering having to go out much higher than what it offered for Hyperion just, you know, last October.
在利率上升的环境下，你怎么看待不断增加的利息支出？
So how do you think about that in in the context of a rising interest rate environment, the interest expense?
是的。
Yeah.
看涨的人会说，再涨50个基点又能怎样呢？
So I'd say the bulls argue, like, what's another 50 bps.
对吧？
Right?
毕竟这事关生死，太重要了，而且AI投资都是长期的。
And and, you know, given how existential this is, how important it is, how, you know, the AI investments are long lived.
我觉得这就是看涨方的观点。
I think that's what the bulls would argue.
我觉得市场现在更担心的是，企业额外融资的能力到底还有多大，对吧？
I think what the market is becoming more concerned about is just that incremental ability to finance, right?
至于这些投资的回报从哪里来，什么时候能说服债权人和股东继续支持，我认为你必须更精准、执行得更好。
And, you know, where this ROI like comes from and when you have to convince debt holders and equity holders to do that, I think you have to be more precise and execute well to that.
所以，他们得持续拿出成绩，用实际数据证明新业务的进展，才能让市场信服。
So, you know, I think that they're gonna have to continue executing, put up numbers to celebrate, show traction in the new businesses in order to convince the market with that.
托尼，今年财报季到目前为止，我们看到的情况是，那些增加资本开支的公司，股价反而被抛售了。
So what we've seen so far in in earning season, Tony, is that the the companies that are raising capex, they're getting sold off.
而你的基金，前十大持仓全是芯片股。
And and your fund, the top 10 holdings are all chip stocks.
它们都是资本支出增长的受益者。
They're all the beneficiaries of the spend.
那你怎么看待这些持仓所面临的情况？
And so how do you think about that as it relates to those holdings that you have?
还有，韩国那边现在是什么情况。
And also, what's going on in Korea.
因为这场芯片热潮的一部分，源于韩国体系里的高杠杆，而现在这些杠杆正在被逐步解除，我们还不确定是不是已经完全解完了。
Because part of this whole chip euphoria was the amount of leverage in the Korean system, which is now being unwound, and and we don't know if it's completely unwound yet at this point.
是的。
Yeah.
我当分析师的时候，是七十年代起步的，所以对这些事情特别有体会。
It's all I mean, like, you know, I kind of grew up in seventies as an analyst.
你得记住，市场总是有周期的，对吧？
So you always have to remember that there's always cycles, right?
所以你得不断管理风险，关注新的数据变化。
So you have to constantly be risk managing, assessing the new data points.
我觉得市场现在正在琢磨，2027到2028年的增长点到底在哪。
And, you know, I think that the market is trying to figure out like what the growth is from '27, '28.
我觉得这部分要看投资回报率、云服务的使用效率，还有支出的可持续性。
And I think that part of that is gonna be the ROI, the utilization of the cloud, and then also sustainability of the spend, right?
所以我觉得市场正在拼凑这些碎片，这不只是看短期盈利，更重要的是展望未来十二到二十四个月的前景。
So I think it's trying to put together all those pieces and it's not just about near term earnings, you know, and it's more about the the view of, like, what the next twelve to twenty four months looks like.
你得去问问那些资本支出方和客户，才能真正评估他们的状况。
And you have to go to, like, kind of the capital spenders and the customers to evaluate that health.
现在你看到那些购买设备的公司股价都在跌，这个叙事本身正承受压力，那你对芯片行业怎么看？
So now that you see that the people or the companies that are selling I mean, that are, excuse me, buying stuff are getting sold off and there's inherent pressure on that narrative, how do you then think about the chips?
你有没有担心，这个趋势正在发生转变？
I mean, are are you getting concerned that that that's turning?
整个故事的方向在变吗？
The story is turning?
当市场给你信号的时候，你始终得保持谦逊。
Well, think you always have to be humble, right, when the market is telling you something.
同时，你也得看看其他领域的创新，尤其是人工智能方面。
You know, at the same time, you know, you look at, what the other areas of innovation and AI are.
我觉得，如果走向多智能体协同的世界——就像Anthropic说的‘天才团队’，或者OpenAI的Codex——这种协同能力至关重要，能推动增长，保持这股势头。
And I think that if you go to this multi agentic world where you have, you can string a team of agents together, you know, what Anthropic has been talking about, country of geniuses, you know, codex by, you know, OpenAI, their attraction's really important, I think to sell, to accelerate this growth keep that intensity going.
而且我觉得这还能释放更多的使用空间。
And I think that also kind of uncaps, can uncap the usage.
同时，你也看到各种成本在上升，不管是建设成本、借贷成本，还是供应链其他环节的开销。
At the same time, you're also seeing a lot of increasing costs, whether it's in the construction of it, the cost to borrow, other parts of the supply chain.
所以我觉得这限制了你能增加多少资本支出。
And so I think that's pressuring it in terms of how much incremental capex you can raise.
因此，你得把所有这些因素综合起来看，既要从长期趋势，也要从短期周期的角度来分析。
So I think you're you gotta put it all together and look at it from a secular perspective and then also a cyclical one too.
明白了。
Alright.
托尼，谢谢。
Tony, thanks.
很高兴听到你的见解。
Great to get your thoughts.
托尼·王，来自T公司。
Tony Wang of T.
富达普里斯.
Rowe Price.
把所有这些因素综合起来看，迈克尔，你得出什么结论？
When you put it all together and shake it all up, Michael, what do you get?
我的意思是，别让长期趋势掩盖了短期周期的影响。
I mean, listen, you can't let the secular get in the way of the cyclical.
归根结底，推动周期的是企业盈利。
And at the end of the day, what drives the cycle are earnings.
我们最近做了一张图表，显示在全球所有国家指数中，盈利增长大幅超出预期、增幅超过25%的公司。
You know, we we recently produced a chart that showed all earnings growers of greater than expected earnings growers of greater than 25% in the all country world index.
也就是说，在全球所有国家指数里，长期盈利增长超过25%的公司。
So long term earnings growth of expected earnings growth of greater than 25% in the all country world index.
你猜这名单里有多少家是‘七巨头’？
Guess how many MAG seven were on that list?
一个都没有。
Zero.
一个。
One.
真的吗。
Wow.
英伟达。
NVIDIA.
在全球指数中，有大约200家公司预期收益增长超过25%，而其中只有一家属于英伟达。
So there's about 200 companies in the all country world index with expected earnings growth of 25% or more in one Mag seven.
所以谈到经济周期，我觉得现在受益的其实是很多不在七大科技巨头之列的股票。
So when we're talking about the cycle, I would say the cycle's favoring a lot of other stocks other than other than the max 70.
还有一点我想快速提一下，这些公司正在变成类似E&P的企业。
The other thing I was quickly know is these companies are becoming E and P companies.
我之前在这儿也说过，但它们就像那些必须不断打井、持续勘探的油气公司一样，这些科技公司也得不停地投入、不停地建设、不停地花钱，才能推动业务增长。
I know I've said that before on this on this set, but they have just like E and P companies who have to drill, drill, drill, right, and keep getting new wells, these guys have to keep building, building, building, and spending, spending, spending in order to to drive business.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，两家餐厅的财报双双出炉。
Coming up, a double portion of restaurant earnings.
星巴克和Chipotle在公布业绩后股价都有所上涨。
Starbucks and Chipotle both on the move after their results.
当快钱回归时，我们会深入分析所有数据。
We are digging into all the numbers when fast money returns.
欢迎回到《快钱财报速递》，今天我们聚焦Chipotle和星巴克。
Welcome back to Fast Money earnings alert on Chipotle and Starbucks.
两家公司的股价在超出预期后都出现了上涨。
Both stocks climbing after beating estimates.
布兰登·戈麦斯带来了详细解读。
Brandon Gomez has got the details on this.
布兰登。
Brandon.
嗨，梅丽莎。
Hey there, Melissa.
是的。
Yeah.
我来聊聊财报电话会议的重点。
Let me dive into the earnings call highlights.
Chipotle不仅超出了预期，同店销售额也在增长，同时还宣布了13亿美元的新股票回购计划。
Chipotle beyond the beat and same store sales growth also announcing a new share repurchase at 1,300,000,000.
这属于Chipotle在第二季度末时拥有的17亿美元股票回购额度中的一部分。
That's part of the 1,700,000,000 Chipotle had available for share buybacks at the end of q two.
关于环孢子虫问题，CEO斯科特·博特赖特简单提了一下，说他们不涉及此事，生菜是从加州采购的。
Cyclospora mentioned briefly CEO Scott Boatwright saying, we're not involved in that they source lettuce in California.
星巴克股价也上涨了。
Now Starbucks also popping higher.
公司表示，各收入阶层和年龄段的顾客都在持续消费，定价对客单价增长的贡献不到一个百分点，说明大部分增长来自客流量的提升。
The company is saying customers are still spending across income group and age, pricing contributing less than one percentage point of ticket growth, suggesting most of the comp increase came from higher traffic.
通话中，雷还详细说明了展望，提到销售势头更强，利润率也在改善。
Now Ray's guidance detailed too on the call, citing stronger sales momentum and improving margins.
这里详细列出了相关数据。
You can see the numbers detailed here.
星巴克CFO表示，第三季度收到的关税退款，基本抵消了2026财年前三个季度所承担的关税成本。
Starbucks CFO saying tariff refunds received in q three offset largely tariffs incurred in the first three quarters of fiscal twenty twenty six.
布莱恩·尼科尔说，这些转型进展比预期更快。
Brian Nickel calling the turnarounds quote ahead of schedule, guys.
是的。
Yeah.
布兰登，关于CMG对环孢子虫的评论，他说得确实很简略，只提到我们的生菜来自加州，但目前我们其实还不清楚疫情的具体源头。
Brandon, in terms of the comments on cyclospora from from CMG, I mean, was it that brief that he just said, our lettuce comes from California because we don't actually know right now what the source of the outbreak is.
如果问题出在水源上，那影响范围可能会更广。
And if it's the water, then it could be wider spread.
没错。
Right.
我们能查到下面的情况吗
Could we find out down
会不会有些来自加州的生菜其实正是污染源呢？
the road that perhaps some of the California sourced lettuce is in fact part of the contaminant?
对吧？
Right?
不过具体数字和影响还得等调查深入，以及我们掌握更多关于这批食材的来源和时间信息后才能确定。
Well, the the we'll see what the numbers and impact looks as as the investigation goes on, but also as we get more information in terms of where and when this was all sourced.
明天早上我们还会听到百胜品牌的最新财报评论。
We get more earnings commentary from Yum Brands tomorrow morning as well.
他们核心业务当然是塔可钟。
Obviously, them at the heart of it with Taco Bell.
没错。
Yep.
Brandon，谢谢。
Brandon, thanks.
Brandon Gomez。
Brandon Gomez.
谢谢。
Thanks.
你知道吗，今天下午我们一直没提，Chipotle股价涨了6%。
You know, we haven't said this all afternoon with Chipotle being up 6%.
我还以为你要说这是‘卷饼大爆发’呢。
Oh, I thought you were gonna call it a burrito blowout.
卷饼大爆发。
Burrito blowout.
是啊。
Yeah.
这真是
It's a
卷饼大爆发。
burrito blowout.
所以
So
你本来打算这么叫的。
you were gonna call it.
对。
Yeah.
那其实
It was
已经成了一种惯例。
actually like a tradition.
感觉每个季度都得这么说一遍。
It's like every quarter, we have to say that.
对。
Yeah.
而且把这两家公司放在一起对比也挺有意思的。
And and also interesting that we paired these two companies up.
显然，之前管理CMJ的那位现在去管星巴克了。我待会儿会聊聊星巴克，因为我觉得他们同店销售额表现非常棒。
Obviously, the the guy used to run CMJ is now running Starbucks, and I'll talk about Starbucks because I I think those those same store sales are fantastic.
确实。
Mhmm.
我是说，这些成绩真的令人振奋，尤其是对于一家之前似乎陷入困境的公司来说。我们当时确实担心他们的一些原材料成本问题。
I mean, those are really exciting, especially for a company that was, running into a wall, and we certainly were concerned about some of their input costs.
他们涉足能量饮料或功能饮料领域，我是说，我一直觉得咖啡本身就有这种功效，但他们确实在大力推广这个概念。
Their foray into energy drinks or energy beverages is something, I mean, I always thought that's what coffee was, but I mean, they're really they're really pushing it.
所以，我认为他们的营销策略奏效了。
So, mean, I I think the the marketing angle has worked.
我觉得运营效率还有待验证，但这增长是毋庸置疑的，这个品牌确实很能打。
I think the operational efficiencies are still to be proven, but this growth is no disputing that brand.
我的意思是，同店销售额增长了7.9%，对。
I mean, same store sales up 7.9 Yeah.
北美地区增长了8.1%，而市场预期只有6.3%。
And North America up 8.1 versus estimates of 6.3.
所以这些数字表现得太亮眼了。
So that that is a blowout on those numbers.
他们并不是不成熟，不是吗？
It's not like they're not a mature that they're right?
他们确实还不是一个成熟的企业。
They're not a mature company.
你可能会看到这样的增长，但显然他们已经做到了。
Maybe you see earning, you know, that kind of growth, but obviously they are.
这真是一个惊人的逆转。
That's an incredible turnaround.
是的。
Yeah.
对你来说，迈克尔，这可能不意外吧。
Maybe not a surprise to you, Michael.
不是。
No.
我刚查了阳光咖啡烘焙的销售数据，然后
Was just checking Sunshine Coffee Roaster sales and I
听说那个咖啡豆特别受欢迎。
heard that's a really hot coffee chip.
同比上涨了9%，这成绩不算差。
They're up 9% year over year, so that's not so bad.
你知道，消费者需求还挺稳的，经济状况也不错。
You know, listen, the consumer is reasonably strong and the economy is doing well.
咖啡价格最近跌了。
Coffee prices are down.
他们表现这么好，其实不意外。
It's not a surprise they're doing well.
所以我觉得这很合理。
So I I think this makes sense.
你看一下尼克接手以来的对比，星巴克涨了60%。
So when you look at the comparison, Starbucks and CMG since nickel took over, Starbucks is up 60%.
而CMG却跌了35%。
CMG is down 35%.
星巴克已经从转型故事变成了执行故事。
Starbucks has went from a turnaround story to an execution story.
利润率还有点提升空间，但我还是更愿意买星巴克。
Still have a little more room to do in margins, but I'd still much rather buy Starbucks.
接下来，韩国因内存市场崩盘引发新一轮回调，但这会不会是入场机会？
Coming up, South Korea stumbles a memory meltdown driving the latest pullback, but could the weakness be a buying opportunity?
我们会就此展开讨论。
We'll debate that.
两分钟后，继续《快速金钱》。
More Fast Money in two.
欢迎回到《快速金钱》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
对人工智能板块的担忧引发了韩国市场的抛售。
Concerns over the AI trade sparking a sell off in South Korea.
韩国综合股价指数下跌了6%，创下四月以来的新低。
It's KOSPI dropping 6%, hitting its lowest level since April.
SK海力士虽然利润创了新高，但最新季度的业绩没达到预期，这才导致了股价下跌。
The loss is coming after chipmaker SK Hynix failed to meet expectations for the latest quarter even though profit came in at a record.
韩国综合指数暴跌近10%，过去一周累计下跌了23%。
KOSPI traded shares plunging almost 10%, down 23% in the past week.
我们以后会不会回头看，觉得这是个好买点呢？
Are we going to look back and say, Tim, that this is a buying opportunity?
三星周四会公布财报。
Well, Samsung reports Thursday.
我就是觉得，如果我是那个成本承担者，既然这事儿是我开始的。
And I just kinda feel like, you know, if if I'm the cost be I started this thing.
那我就得把它做完。
I'm gonna finish it.
我是说，在底部的时候。
And I mean, on the bottom.
而且我认为，你提到的杠杆确实导致了一些扭曲的市场波动。
And and I do think that the the leverage you referred to has created distorted moves.
我们知道，市场确实出现了异常波动，这是事实。
It we know there was distorted moves, period.
但我要说的是，推动市场下跌的因素其实很明确——市场在告诉你，需求不会那么强，肯定会回调，整个行业已经商品化，而且周期性很强。
But and I'm not telling you that the things that are driving the trade lower, which is the market is telling you there won't be that much demand, there will be a pullback, the world is commoditized and it's very cyclical.
我觉得现在正是入手真正优质企业的绝佳时机，当然，这不包括希捷，虽然我并不是不尊重他们。
I think we're getting to a very interesting place to own real companies, not necessarily with all due respect, to Seagate.
他们确实是家正经公司，但我谈的不是那种暴涨了十倍的存储股。
You know, they're a real company, but I'm not talking about a memory move that was a thousand percent.
没错。
Right.
我说的是三星，现在股价非常便宜，我觉得SK海力士也值得考虑。
I'm talking about and I I am talking about Samsung, which is very cheap, and I think SK is is ownable too.
我确实觉得，因为市场反应过头了，现在还可以趁低布局。
I do think you could trade off lower, again, because it's overdone.
但如果你把半导体板块比作SMH指数，我觉得SMH到420还有不小的下行空间。
But and if you look at if you wanna equate semis to the SMH, I think four twenty on the SMH is still a ways lower.
但我是说，没错。
But I yeah.
我觉得现在正是关键时刻。
I I don't I think this is a moment.
但韩国投资者的杠杆操作推高了市场狂热，如今杠杆效应开始逆转，我们还能再看到那些高点吗？
But to to the extent that leverage on the part of the Korean investor created the frenzy to the upside, and now there are all sorts of curves on that lever leverage, will we never see those levels again?
看起来短期内是不太可能了。
It seems like we won't, at least in the near term.
我是说，这个反弹。
I mean, that that bounce.
当你想到反弹，它并不是回到之前的高点，因为市场那种泡沫已经不存在了。
When you think about a bounce, it's not a bounce back to those highs because that froth in the system won't exist.
这没什么问题。
And that's fine.
我的意思是，迟早他们会慢慢消化掉这些水平。
I mean, at some point, let them grow into that.
但话说回来，三星第二季度的利润同比将增长19倍。
But, I mean, Samsung's gonna report 19 fold profits year over year for 2Q.
而且顺便说一句，三星可不是只会做一样东西。
I mean, I I just and by the way, Samsung's not a one trick pony.
三星不只是个芯片制造商。
I mean, Samsung isn't just a chip manufacturer.
所以我觉得，这中间还是有机会的。
So, I mean, I I think there's there's an opportunity.
我们对除中国以外的新兴市场持超配态度。
We're overweight emerging markets ex China.
所以从本质上讲，我们对芯片类股票也是超配的。
So by nature, we're overweight the chip stocks.
这阵子确实挺煎熬的，但股价也涨了不少。
And this has been, you know, a bit painful, but it's also had a massive run up.
毕竟今年到目前为止，涨幅还是非常可观的。
I mean, still up huge on the year.
而且我们大部分情绪指标都显示，这波行情已经过头了。
And most of our sentiment indicators are saying that this this is overdone.
但这并不意味着它不会再跌，等基本面重新主导市场之前，可能还会继续下探。
Now it doesn't mean it couldn't go lower before it does bounce and fundamentals start to take over again.
不过我觉得，在反弹之前，还得再经历一阵阵痛苦。
But, you know, I I think it's gonna be a little bit more pain before you start to rally again.
说到这点，机械性抛售其实是一把双刃剑。
To to your point, the mechanical selling really cuts both ways.
如果你限制了上行空间，那也就等于封死了上涨潜力。
So if you're limiting your upside, you're capping it.
这种机制在上下两个方向都会起作用。
You put curves on both ways.
机械性抛售会引发自发性抛售，而自发性抛售又会进一步加剧机械性抛售。
And mechanical selling begets organic selling, which begets more mechanical selling.
所以你得耐心等它把这一轮周期走完。
So you have to sort of wait till it gets through the cycle.
我会再观望一下。
I would hold back.
这是个买入机会。
It is a buy.
这家公司很不错，但我建议等这种机械性抛售平息后再行动。
It is a great company, but I would wait until this mechanical selling peters out.
接下来是最终交易。
Up next, Final Trades.
该做最后的交易了。
Time for the final trade.
迈克尔·科托普洛斯。
Michael Kotopoulos.
我们看好中国。
We like China.
盈利增长正在加速。
Earnings growth is accelerating.
我们认为政策支持会到位，而且现在价格很便宜。
We think policy support's going to be there, and it's pretty cheap.
所以，中国就是我们的选择。
So China, it is.
金宝？
Kimbo?
我喜欢
I like
迈克尔对中国市场的看法。
Michael's view on China.
我喜欢兄弟们。
I like bros.
我觉得这太棒了。
Think this is awesome.
你最近怎么样？
How you doing?
这些股票还在上涨，我觉得我们刚才提到的这些趋势对他们有利。
Bros going higher, and I think the trends here that we just heard about are in favor for them.
艾琳。
Erin.
对。
Yes.
看现在的VIX指数。
The VIX right here.
我觉得它不会停在这儿。
I don't think it lives here.
我觉得今天它还会再冲高一波，然后才回落。
I think it actually goes higher quite a day today before it goes.
史蒂文。
Steven.
我选的是微软，我觉得它的股价本该更高一些，现在稍微回撤一点也正常。
Mine is Microsoft, and I do believe it should have been trading higher and sort of give it a little bit back.
虽然只涨了大概2%，但我觉得它应该涨得更多。
It's only up about 2%, but I think it should be high.
好的。
Alright.
感谢收看《快钱》。
Thank you for watching Fast Money.
明天五点我们再见。
See you back here tomorrow at five.
《Mad Money》节目，吉姆·克拉默现在就开始。
Mad Money, Jim Kramer starts right now.
《Fast Money》节目各位嘉宾发表的所有观点仅代表他们个人，并不反映CNBC或其母公司及关联公司的立场，这些观点此前可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他渠道发布过。
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium.
请不要将本播客中表达的任何观点视为进行特定投资或采取特定策略的具体建议，而仅应将其视为一种观点表达。
You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of an opinion.
这些观点基于《Fast Money》嘉宾认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司并不保证信息的完整性和准确性，因此不应将其作为可靠依据加以依赖。
Such opinions are based upon information the fast money participants consider reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, it should not be relied upon as such.
如需查看完整的Fast Money免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer。
To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer.
是什么让你有信心去做一件前所未有的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变格局。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中之一
One of
我最欣赏的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有各种各样的表现形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，还是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，要想成就大事，就得有大格局。
Life is short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的变革者与影响力人物。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC changemakers and power players.
每周二更新新一期节目，各大播客平台都能收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。