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7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest，探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念和战略规划。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
现场直播纳斯达克交易所在纽约时代广场的核心位置。
Live for the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square.
这可是快钱。
This is fast money.
今晚非同寻常。
Big night.
接下来有哪些看点。
Here's what's on tap.
内存芯片暴跌，美光、闪迪、西部数据这些公司再次领跌市场。
Memory loss, tech tumbling, names like Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital, all leading the selloff again.
这是AI泡沫开始破裂的信号，还是只是短期波动？
Is this the beginning of an AI unwind or something short term?
这不只是科技的问题。
It is not just tech.
油价也在持续下跌，数以十亿美元计的伊朗原油即将进入市场。
Oil continuing its slide as well, and billions of dollars with Iranian crude oil are now set to hit the market.
价格会不会进一步下跌？
Could prices be ready to drop even more?
此外，我们全程关注了联邦快递和KB住宅公司盘后交易的动态。
Plus, we are all over the after hours action in Fedex and KB Home.
我们会带来这些公司最新财报的详细情况，以及交易员们在这些股票上的最新布局。
The latest details from those quarters and how your traders are positioning in all those names ahead.
大家好。
Hi, everybody.
我是布赖恩，今晚再次代替梅丽莎，从纳斯达克B演播室向您直播，同时连线的还有蒂姆·塞莫尔、凯伦·费纳曼、丹·纳撒恩和史蒂夫·格拉索。
I am Brian in for Melissa once again tonight coming to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq and on your desk, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Steve Grasso.
事情多着呢。
Lot to do.
咱们先来看看一些热门行情的回调。
Let's start with a bit of a momentum unwind.
投资者正在获利了结今年最火的交易。
Investors cashing in on this year's hottest trades.
内存板块遭遇重挫。
Memory taking a big hit.
Roundhill内存ETF下跌了14%。
DRAM, the roundhill memory ETF shedding 14%.
SanDisk之前火得不行，今天却不行了。
SanDisk, red hot, not today.
它是标普500中表现最差的股票。
Your worst performer in the S and P 500.
美光明天盘后公布财报，但一直落后于纳指100。
Micron, they report tomorrow after the bell, they lag the Nasdaq 100.
整个芯片板块也都承受着压力。
The entire broader chip trade also under pressure.
事实上，费城半导体指数的所有成分股跌幅都超过了3%。
In fact, every member of the SOX, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, more than down 3%.
但今天，科技股中一些跌幅最惨的板块还是小幅反弹了。
But some of the most beaten down areas of tech did manage to rebound a bit today.
微软上涨了近2%。
Microsoft rose almost 2%.
Salesforce也翻红了。
Salesforce also in the green.
顺便说一句，这个更新终结了它连续14天下跌的走势。
And by the way, with that update ended its fourteen day down streak.
亚马逊也微幅上涨。
Amazon, fractionally higher as well.
市场中一些更防御性的板块开始补涨，比如消费必需品——今天标普500中表现最好的板块，还有医疗健康板块也上涨了，一些生物科技股更是创了新高，我们昨晚刚在这档节目里聊过这些公司。
Other more defensive pockets of the market picking up some slack consumer staples, your best performer in the S and P 500 today, healthcare, higher, some biotech names, which we just talked about on this show last night, hitting new records.
所以，这仅仅是超买市场里的一次获利回吐吗？
So is this just a bit of a profit taking in an overbought market?
或者，蒂姆·西摩，我们又提这个问题了：这会不会是另一轮行情的开端？
Or Tim Seymour, again, a question we have asked repeatedly, the beginning of something else.
其实，这是多种因素共同作用的结果，毕竟市场之前明显超买过头了。
Well, it's it's it's a combination of things for a market that was definitely overbought.
而且昨晚亚洲市场，尤其是韩国那边的情况，也值得关注，因为那边很多散户的杠杆率都很高。
And what was going on overnight in Asia, certainly in Korea, is yet a dynamic where we know how levered up some of the the retail players are there.
我们还听说，海力士似乎打算推出一些价格更低的产品，市场隐约觉得，供应周期可能会因此缩短。
We also know that there's at least there was some commentary that Hynix is actually looking to bring lower priced products into the market that there is some sense that the cycle could be shortened in terms of some new supply.
我觉得这里有个关键点别忘了：我们刚刚经历了半导体指数单日7%的大幅波动。
I I think you have a case here where let let's not forget that we're now after a 7% move in in the socks over or today in today's markets.
现在市场又回到了上周四晚上的水平。
You're back to where you were late last Thursday.
我的意思是，没人质疑半导体的需求基本面。
I mean, you know, so this is this is a move that I don't think anybody's questioning the demand story.
从未来估值来看，也不算离谱，但说到底，过去五年我们一直在谈半导体这件事。
The valuations on a forward basis aren't even terrible, but but just to put it in context, all we've done for five years is talk about semiconductors.
如果你回看去年10月22日的CPI低点，我觉得那对科技股来说是几十年一遇的低点。
And so if you go back to that that October 22 CPI low, which I think was a generational low for technology, etcetera.
从那个低点到昨天的高点，半导体板块整体上涨了680%。
Since that point to the high yesterday, semiconductors as a group were up 680.
但如果你只算到三个月前的水平，涨幅才320%。
But if you took that same low and brought it just to where we were three months ago, it was only 320%.
我想说的是，320%已经很惊人了，但过去三个月半导体的涨幅简直超乎寻常，根本不可能持续。
What I'm telling you is that, you know, only 320%, but that the move that we've had for the last three months in semiconductors has been beyond extraordinary and unsustainable.
所以我觉得，更值得关注、也更让人担忧的，不是内存股在干什么，而是那些我们一直说的、全球现金流最充沛的公司，现在居然不再产生自由现金流了。
So I I don't you know, I think the more interesting and probably the more troublesome part of the market is not what memory is doing, is what we talk about all the time with the biggest free cash flow generating companies in the world, Brian, that no longer are generating free cash flow.
我觉得丹·纳森，蒂姆·西摩提到的这一点特别关键，你看看韩国股指。
I think Dan Nathan, this incredibly important point that Tim Seymour is bringing up, you know, you look at the South Korean index.
今天早上醒来，韩国股市已经跌了10%。
You wake up this morning, South Korea was down 10%.
对。
Yes.
一年内涨了240%。
It's up 240% in a year.
上面的标语写着：解读今天的回调。
The banner there says making sense of today's pullback.
所以咱们来分析一下今天的回调。
So make sense of today's
如果你看看韩国整体情况，其实台湾也可以算进去。
If you think about just South Korea in general, and you could throw Taiwan in there also.
这些经济体都非常依赖少数几家公司，正是它们推动了当地的经济活动。
So these are economies that are very geared towards those few companies that are driving a lot of the activity economically there.
而且，零售投资者的狂热也跟这脱不了干系。
And, you know, you think about the retail investing mania is also attached to it.
对吧？
Right?
所以还有很多投资者是借钱买这些股票的。
So you also have these folks, you know, buying a lot of these names on margin.
所以可能会出现双重打击。
And so there's a double whammy that could happen.
如果需求稍微一回落，这些经济体将是受冲击最严重的。
If you see the slightest pullback in demand, those are gonna be some of the hardest hit economies.
但同时，散户投资者也会受到影响，当然机构资金也不例外。
But you're also gonna have a retail investing crowd, and obviously there's institutional money there too.
他们同样会感受到压力。
They're gonna feel that also.
所以这些情况都值得我们密切关注。
So those are things that I think to keep a close tab on.
还有另一点要注意。
Now here's the other thing.
明白吗？
Okay?
我在市场里已经待了将近三十年了。
I've been in the markets for, you know, a little less than thirty years.
这三十年来，我一直在交易和关注美光公司。
I've been trading and watching Micron that entire time.
我从来没想过会是这样。
This is one thing I never thought was how.
我压根没想到它能值一万亿美元。
I never thought this would have a trillion dollar market cap.
这辈子都没敢想。
Never in my lifetime.
二十五年前，我敢打赌，用我左手小指头押注，这公司倒闭的可能性远大于值一万亿美金。
I would have, like, bet you my left pinky twenty five years ago that this company was more likely to go out of business than have a trillion dollar market cap.
是的。
Okay.
还有件事我也没料到，就是美光的毛利率能到百分之八十。
Another thing that I never thought would happen in Micron is that they would have 80% gross margin.
上个季度他们就是这么报的。
That's what they printed last quarter.
所以，关于需求前景，蒂姆提到的这一点，给了他们很强的定价能力。
So to Tim's point about the demand picture, it's giving them a lot of pricing power.
对吧？
Right?
但当你听说SK海力士或者三星打算跟美光打价格战的时候，那可就不太妙了。
So when you hear, though, a company like SK Hynix or Samsung is going to try to compete on price with Micron, well, that's not a great place to be.
对吧？
Right?
我们之前也聊过，高端显卡领域可能会出现竞争局面。
And we've talked about the potential for, you know, some sort of competitive situation as it relates to the high end GPUs.
也许现在就来了。
Maybe it's here.
这可能就是英伟达股价近期盘整的原因之一。
Maybe that's one of the reasons why NVIDIA is going sideways.
但在我看来，整个半导体行业居然全靠美光一家，还指望它明天的业绩指引来带动，这局面实在让人担忧。
But the idea that this entire semi trade is going to sit on the shoulders of Micron and the guidance that they give tomorrow is kind of a scary place to be in my opinion.
我觉得，趁着财报前股价跌了这么多，反而好事，因为对美光明天的预期门槛就低了。
Well, I think for I think it's better that it's traded down so much going into earnings as the bar is lower for Micron tomorrow.
不过说实话，这种波动也太剧烈了。
But I do think that just you know, these are dramatic moves.
整个指数一下涨跌10%，这规模实在太大了。
A whole index to move 10%, that is enormous.
但考虑到之前涨得那么多，出现一两天小幅回调，不是很正常吗？
But in the context of the move up, given what's happened, how could it not have a day or two where it moves down percent?
就算连续两天大幅波动，最后还是没偏离蒂姆几天前说的那个位置太远。
So even if you have two days in a row of gigantic moves, it still leaves you, not far off from where Tim said, a few days earlier than that.
说到这点，把SMH的走势图再调出来看看吧，我觉得这图该改名叫SMDH了，这走势真让人无语。
I mean, to your point, to your point, I mean, bring that chart back up of the SMH, because I feel like it should be retitled SMDH with that move.
我真是摇头叹气。
Shaking my darn head.
哦，明白了。
Oh, okay.
因为我当时觉得这事儿挺奇怪的。
Because I thought it was something funny.
这跟加廷左手小指头的搞笑动作是一回事。
It goes with Gatin's left pinky comedy.
它在三个月内翻了一倍。
It doubled in three months.
一个指数都翻了一倍。
An index doubled.
我们一直在讨论
That we've been talking
过去五年里它的发展情况。
about for the preceding five years about how it was doing.
从那时起，它翻了一番。
It doubled from that point.
没错。
Yes.
所以，是的。
So, yes.
我的意思是，我觉得你说得对，史蒂夫也提过这一点。
It's just, I mean, I think to your point, and Steve, talk about it as well.
如果它没下跌的话。
If it didn't fall.
没错。
Right.
我觉得这才是我们该担心的地方。
That's I feel like we should be worried.
我觉得你说到点子上了。
So I think nailed it.
这来自于人们的感知或相对跌幅。
It's coming from perception or relative fall.
所以当凯伦谈到这个的时候，我看着那个图表，你
So when Karen talks about it, know, when I look at that chart and you
如果说它下跌了，
say it had a fall,
你是从1200美元跌到1000美元。
you're falling from $1,200 to a thousand.
是的。
Yeah.
在我们这个行当里，它本该跌到400才对。
Like it should fall in our world, it should fall to 400.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得正是在DRAM或者NAND这个层面，事情变得特别有意思了。
So that's where I think that it really got interesting on that DRAM level or NAND level.
这本来就是一个大宗商品生意。
It's a commodities based business.
丹说他们的利润率有80%。
And Dan said they have 80% margins.
他们到底有什么？
What do they what do they have?
十年的平均值是多少？
What's the ten year average?
我以为低于25%
Below 25, I thought.
是33%。
It's 33%.
明白了。
Okay.
低谷在哪儿？
Where's the trough?
29%。
29%.
什么时候该入手？
Where should you buy it?
大概在29%的时候吧。
Probably at 29%.
你该在80%的利润率时卖出去。
You should be selling it at 80% margins.
或许在50%左右的利润率区间，你可以抛硬币决定，但这些都涨过头了，而且已经持续过热一段时间了。
Maybe somewhere in the 50% margin range, could you could flip a coin, but these are all overbought, but they've been overbought for some period of time.
即使涨过头了，它们还是继续上涨。
And they still went up even while they were overbought.
它们确实涨过头了。
They got overbought.
没错。
Correct.
对吧？
Right?
现在所有正在看和听的人，大概都在想同样的事。
And now everybody watching and listening right now is probably thinking the same thing.
好吧。
Okay.
我昨天挺看好美光的。
Well, I like Micron yesterday.
它跌了13%。
It's down 13%.
现在它的估值比之前更好了吗？
Is it now a better value than it was?
你昨天看好它，是因为它之前涨了六七倍，觉得该歇一歇了，对吧？
Well, did you like it yesterday because it had run up seven you know, 600%, and then you felt like, alright.
这波势头太猛了。
There's some huge momentum here.
我想等这波涨势缓下来再做打算。
I'm gonna stay on it until that hap that slows down.
现在这波涨势停了吗？
Has that happened now?
我昨天就不喜欢它，今天收盘后我估计也不会喜欢。
I didn't like it yesterday, and I don't think I'm gonna like it tomorrow after the close.
但我确实看好需求面，也看好半导体板块的走势。
But but I I I do like the demand story, and I do like the move in semiconductors.
说清楚点，它们从头到尾都创了相对新高，我打赌这周内，甚至下周一之前，它们还会再创新高。
And let's be clear, they made new relative high all the way through to yesterday, and I bet they make new relative highs before the end of the the end of maybe this week, if not next.
我确信这个板块的增长动力还在，资金可能会轮动回博通和高通，但你不能否认需求是真实存在的。
I I am sure that the growth that's in this sector, and there will be rotation, and they might go back to Broadcom and Qualcomm, but you can't tell me the demand isn't there.
我喜欢的是，这个市场持续展现出相对强势，新的供给还在不断加入。
And I I like, the market that continues to see relative relative strength Supplies coming on.
这样的市场，我才愿意持有。
Is a market I wanna own.
但是是不是
But is
等等，先别急。
it is it hold on.
有人在质疑美光的核心业务吗，还是只是质疑它？
Is any and anybody is anybody questioning Micron's core business or just questioning No.
股价在两三个月内翻了一倍多？其实还没翻倍。
The fact that the stock has doubled in two or three It's not double.
那有没有人提到过？
And did
小丹回应你的观点了吗？
Dan answer your point?
我们现在面临供应限制。
We're under supply constraints.
但现在它已经变成一个大宗商品了。
It's so But now a commodity product.
没错。
Right.
现在它的供需规模已经达到了一万亿美元。
And now it has a trillion supply demand.
所以我说的是大宗商品。
So I commodities.
我知道。
I I I know
丹想做个总结。
Dan wants to wrap it up.
蒂姆说的是需求在那里，但供应量会增长。
So what Tim said is demand demands there, but the supply is going to be growing.
所以股价得回落。
Therefore, the stock has to come in.
让丹接着说。
The Queue up Dan.
对。
Yeah.
问题是，这家公司十六个月前根本看不到自己产品的市场需求。
So I mean, the risk here is that this is a company that had no no visibility about demand for their product going back sixteen months ago.
明白吗？
Okay?
你本来可以在40美元的时候加仓，现在股价已经涨到1100美元了。
And so you could add all the stock that you wanted at $40, and now the stock is at $1,100.
明白吗？
Okay?
所以如果这家公司不
So if the company Don't
别上头，各位。
have at it, people.
别上头。
Don't
别上头。
have at it.
但如果这家公司所以
But if if if the company So
你呢。
do you.
如果这家公司
If the company
如果公司根本看不到某个机会能帮他们把毛利率从30%提升到80%，那现在你凭什么相信他们的指引？
didn't have the visibility about something that was gonna get them from a 30% gross margin possibly to an 80% gross margin, then why would you trust them now with that guidance?
我不是说他们会透露什么超出范围的消息。
And I don't mean that they're gonna say anything that's out of school.
他们必须根据实际需求来给出指引。
They have to guide to what they see the demand.
但眼下，如果这还是这场交易最后的阵地，你就看看那些超大规模云服务商——他们建数据中心、部署服务器、提供所有核心组件、训练模型，实际上完全主导着算力的定价。
But right now, if this is the last bastion of this trade right now, look at the way the hyperscalers, they're the ones who make the data centers, that put the servers in there, that all the components go into, that train the models, and they are basically setting the pricing for compute.
我不知道你们有没有今天早上听加里·科恩在《晨间播报》上的发言，他说得特别到位，这其实也是我们这档节目一直强调的观点。
And I don't know if you guys saw Gary Cohn this morning on Squawk and Friends, and he made a really good point, a point that we've been making on this show for a while.
我觉得他应该是我们节目的铁粉。
I think he's a big fan of this show.
他说，如果你觉得能靠现在的投资来预测十年、二十年后的算力定价，那你就是忽略了另一个既得利益者。
He's like, if you think that you can figure out what the pricing is for compute ten, twenty years out based on the investments that are being made right now, you've then another incumbent, right?
科技发展的历史一向如此，这些公司目前的做法，对他们所看到的商业机会而言完全合理——而这个机会，正是我们可能见过的最具颠覆性的技术变革。
That's the history of technology, and so what these companies are doing might be perfectly rational for the business and the opportunity set that they see based on the technology that is the biggest secular change in technology that we've probably ever seen.
但萨利，我知道你急着想说。
But, Sully, I know you wanna get it.
但这不意味着你应该用几百亿美元的待确认订单来估值这些公司，毕竟这些订单全都是未来的收入。
But it doesn't mean that you wanna value these companies on hundreds of billions of dollars of backlog that all has to come.
所有这些收入都还没实现，全在将来。
It all has to come in the future.
在我们聊到我们的老朋友KP之前，我想问问史蒂夫·格拉索，你觉得大家买股票是冲着核心业务来的吗？
So before we get to our good friend KP, I I just wanna ask Steve Grasso, do you think people are buying stock on the core business?
我们明天晚上就要公布财报了，他们是真看好业务，还是像卡伦说的，只是看中了股价走势，追着势头进场，而这种势头可能……
And we got the earnings tomorrow night, or were they buying the stock because to Karen's point, they liked the chart, they rode the momentum, and maybe that momentum is that Any
有各种各样的原因。
number of reasons.
他们其实并没有
They didn't actually
在意美光的表现或者它赚了多少钱。
care what Micron did or how much money it made.
他们只是跟着图表交易的卡特·布雷克斯顿的追随者。
They were Carter Braxton worth acolytes trading the charts.
我觉得他们买入是因为
I think they bought it
高带宽内存方面。
on high bandwidth memory.
我觉得他们买是因为市场因素。
I think they bought it on that they the market.
这是个寡头垄断的市场。
It's an oligopoly.
做内存的厂商屈指可数，所以大家都去抢那三四家头部玩家。
There's only a handful of players that are in the memory space, so everyone chases all three or four of those players.
我们现在就处在这个阶段。
That's where we're at now.
当供应超过需求时，情况就反过来啦。
When supply exceeds demand, then it works the other way.
两边都受影响。
Cuts both
所以现在大家都在卖半导体指数吗？
So is everybody selling the semiconductor index now?
是不是这样
Is that is
我就是这个意思
I that what I mean
我持有视频板块的股票。
I'm long in video.
我跟你说，从现在到年底，半导体板块的表现一定会持续跑赢大盘。
I'm telling you, semiconductors are gonna continue to outperform the market between now and the end of the year.
但你不喜欢美光吗？
But you don't like MU?
不喜欢。
No.
但我
But I
我是说整个板块。
I the group as a group.
听我说，我们刚聊了十分钟，没必要再重复一遍。
Look, I I don't need to rehash the same conversation we just had for for ten minutes.
但我跟你说，半导体板块过去五年一直跑赢大盘，我觉得这趋势今天不会停。
I I'm telling you though, that semiconductors have continued to outperform the market for five years, and I don't think it stops today.
那呢？
Well, what?
我们继续聊吧，反正换个公司，又是大热门，不过名字我念不出来，叫Cerebras。
We get to continue this conversation because we're just gonna change companies to another one that's a big deal and one whose name I cannot pronounce, Cerebras.
完美。
Perfect.
再重复五次吧。
Do this again, like, five times.
就这些了。
That was it.
股价的走势。
Shares of the move.
这家公司首次作为上市公司发布报告。
The company's first report is a public company.
克里斯蒂娜和内维尔的部分成员现在正在演播室加入我们。
Christina, parts of Neville is joining us now on set.
很难做比较。
It's hard to make a comparison.
对吧？
Right?
因为我们没什么可以拿来对比的
Because we don't have anything to compare it
确实如此。
to.
没错。
Precisely.
没错。
Precisely.
所以我不打算做比较，尽管有人说是营收超预期了。
So I won't compare even though some are saying it beat on revenue.
营收具体是1.93亿美元。
Revenue specifically came in at a $193,000,000.
如果去掉他们那笔OpenAI股票交易，实际营收是1.91亿，略高于分析师的预期。
You strip out the OpenAI stock sale or stock deal that they had, then it's actually a 191, which is a little bit higher than what, analysts were expecting.
他们的核心毛利率也达到了47%。
They also posted a core gross margin of 47%.
这背后是与OpenAI签订的一项价值超过200亿美元的多年协议，再加上与AWS的合作，但我们并不清楚这项合作的具体财务细节。
That's backed by a multiyear deal with OpenAI worth more than $20,000,000,000 plus a partnership with AWS, but we don't really have the financial details of that partnership.
但真正值得关注的是，公司预计毛利率会逐季下滑，降至36%到38%之间。
But it's the guidance that shows gross margins falling sequentially down to somewhere between 36 to 38%.
或许这就是为什么股价一开始反应负面的原因。
Perhaps, maybe that's why the stock reaction, was negative at first.
有些人其实已经预料到了这种情况。
Some are expecting this.
为了满足OpenAI的需求，Cerebras不得不向合作伙伴G42租用额外的场地，而这笔租金开支直接侵蚀了利润，导致毛利率下降。
Keep up, to keep up with OpenAI demand, Cerebras actually has to rent extra space from its partner g forty two, and that rental cost eats into profitability, hence, the drop in gross margins.
首席执行官在新闻稿中表示，他们的技术方案能更快地交付成果。
The CEO saying in a press release that technology code delivers solutions in less time.
这里说的主要是他们的芯片，跟NVIDIA这些竞争对手相比的优势。
That's specifically their chip, you know, comparison to NVIDIA, etcetera.
而这反过来为OpenAI和AWS这样的前沿客户带来了显著的增长动力。
And that this in turn has created significant momentum with pioneering customers like OpenAI and AWS.
目前看来，他们就只有这两个客户，而且还是新发展的。
It seems to be their only two right now and emerging customers as well.
但我猜电话会上不会透露任何具体名字。
But I doubt we'll get any names on the call.
不过现在这种增长其实是靠大量投入换来的，市场现在正是按这个逻辑来定价的。
Although, this is a growth coming in really at an expense right now, and that's what the market is pricing at the moment.
是的。
Yeah.
摩根士丹利说，我们不指望有什么重大意外。
Morgan Stanley is saying we are not expecting a major surprise.
听起来确实没出什么意外。
Sounds like we didn't get one.
没错。
Nope.
对。
Correct.
没什么意外。
No major surprise.
摩根士丹利仍然对它们认为的独特架构持乐观态度。
And Morgan Stanley remains constructive on what they view as a differentiated architecture.
这是因为我们今天早些时候在节目中已经聊过这个了。
That's because it's a we we talked about this earlier today on the show.
这是因为它的芯片更大。
It's because it's a larger chip.
内存直接集成在芯片上。
The memory's on the chip.
所以你可以把它想象成高速公路。
Therefore, you think of it like highways.
对吧？
Right?
芯片之间互相通信。
Chips talking to each other.
有时候这种势头会减弱。
Sometimes you lose some of that momentum.
延迟会增加。
Lose latency.
对。
Yeah.
但我们别用这些术语了。
But let's not use those terms.
对吧？
Right?
因为有时候
Because sometimes
因为不是每个人都懂这些术语。
because it's not everybody understands those terms.
我觉得我们经常
I feel like often we we
没有延迟。
No delay.
没错。
Exactly.
或者如果你的话。
Or if you yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
所以没有延迟。
So no delay.
所以是大芯片。
So Big chips.
当你使用大芯片时，所有东西都集成在一块芯片上，因此信息不需要频繁地来回传输，损失的信息也就更少。
When you have big chips, you have it all on one chip, and therefore, you may not lose as much information because they don't have to travel back and forth talking to each other as much.
你就能
You get
它？
it?
是的。
Yeah.
我确实这么觉得。
I do.
我只是觉得，我们浪费了十五秒讨论延迟的定义，这挺讽刺的。
I just feel like we wasted fifteen seconds talking about the definition of latency, which I find ironic.
我们也就花了两秒左右。
We we spent, like, two seconds.
我们可以
We can
如果你愿意，我们可以再回到美光的话题。
go back to Micron if you want to.
我可以补充一下这个观点。
I can chime in on that.
蒂姆
Tim
他不想回去了。
doesn't wanna go back.
我知道。
I know.
你别急，听我说。
Get your I'm I'm you,
现在大家觉得英伟达的某些GPU之外，把这家作为备选供应商还算合理吗？
I'm is this being I'm viewed as, like, a decent or reasonable second source, let's say, to some of the GPUs that NVIDIA are making?
我每一条笔记都看过了。
Every single and I've read every single note.
目前还没人真正拿这个来做对比。
No one actually makes that comparison just yet.
要说的话，大家现在都在讨论他们和OpenAI的这笔交易。
If anything, they're just talking up about the deal with OpenAI.
我还以为你会问我，关于OpenAI一家公司就占了超过250亿美元的待执行订单，客户集中度的问题呢？
And I thought you were gonna ask me, what about the customer concentration with OpenAI considering that's over, you know, $25,000,000,000 of backlog from one company?
但好像没人真正在意这个。
Nobody seems that worried.
也许随着我们更多地进入推理阶段，Cerebras会变得更重要，但除了Cerebras的CEO本人，我没怎么看到其他专家拿它和NVIDIA做对比。
Perhaps, in the inference stage as we we pull push into it more, Cerebras will be a bigger player, but I haven't seen as many comparisons coming from experts with the exception of Cerebras CEO itself.
他甚至在Computex大会上登台，直接拿自己和NVIDIA比，说他们更厉害，不过我们都知道，巨头肯定不会认这个说法。
He was even on stage at Computex making that comparison to NVIDIA, you know, essentially saying that they're better, but we know the giant won't agree with that.
不会。
No.
咱们先别提那个，那得花好几个小时才能讲清楚。
Let's say bring up but that's that's a, like, a multi hour chart.
咱们还是看一个月或者三个月的图表吧。
Let's bring up, a one month or a three month chart.
我知道这支股票是长线布局，但说实话，大多数人买它可能都亏钱了。
I know the stock has been trading at long game, but the reality is most people have probably lost money on this stock.
一个月前股价还高一百美元呢。
It's down a $100 a share from where it was a month ago.
是的。
Yeah.
我说，185美元的发行价，挺值得观察的。这些IPO规模虽然远不如SpaceX，但如果能稳住价格，对市场情绪影响很大，尤其是对新上市公司的看法。
I mean, that IPO price of 185, it'll be interesting to see how some of these IPOs that obviously there's a much smaller deal than than the SpaceX, but like if they can hold those prices, I think that'll have a lot to do with sentiment as it relates to new issues coming to market.
要是跌破了呢？
What if it breaks below it?
听我说。
I mean, listen.
我觉得它根本不代表什么，而且正如蒂姆说的，他可是买家。
I I don't think it's a proxy for anything, and I think to Tim's point, I mean, he's a buyer.
他认为半导体板块在对冲中表现会更出色。
I mean, he thinks that the semis he thinks that the semis are gonna outperform from from a hedge.
31。
31.
那情况怎么样？
How about it?
不过我想说一点。
I just say one thing, though.
这是他们作为上市公司第一次电话会议。
This is their first conference call as a public company.
他们必须定好基调，这非常重要，我相信他们准备得很充分，但你还是得认真听会议内容。
It's really important that they try to set the right tone, and I'm sure they're very prepared, but you never you gotta listen to the call.
这真的很重要。
It's really important.
确实是个关键点。
Well, such a critical point.
我们这边看到的是洛丽·卡瓦西纳。
We're seeing Lori Calvasina here.
接着刚才的话题说一下。
So just follow-up on that.
别管那名字了。
Forget about the name.
别管那家公司了。
Forget about the company.
对吧？
Right?
作为一个有多年经验的基金经理，公司第一次电话会议时，CEO、CFO和投资者关系团队都会出面。
As a as a longtime fund manager, when you have a first conference call, they're sort of the CEO and CFO and IR people.
他们这时候就像在聚光灯下，这其实是在考验他们的表现。
They're kind of on display, and they're kind is this a test of Yeah.
他们正处在风口浪尖上。
They're on the right.
在前线接受考验。
Firing line.
没错。
Yes.
坐热凳子更有意思。
The hot seat is better.
没错。
Right.
这确实是一次考验，咱们看看分析师会问些什么。
It is a test for sure, and we'll see what the analysts ask them.
我觉得这个集中度的问题，肯定会一再被提到。
I think this concentration thing is really that's gonna come up again and again.
如果他们在这方面能提出什么新观点，那就太好了。
If they have something new to say on that front, that would be a great thing.
咱们走着瞧吧。
We'll see.
好的。
Alright.
关于市场的下一步动向，我们请来前面提到的RBC资本市场美国股票策略主管洛里·卡瓦西纳。
So for more on the market's next move, let's bring in the aforementioned Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
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洛里，我相信，如果我没记错的话，早在五月份——那可是一个多月前了，大概是中旬吧——你就提醒过半导体板块会出现获利回吐。
And I believe, Lori, if I am not mistaken, that back in May, which is over a month ago, mid May, I think it was, you sort of flagged some profit taking in the semiconductors.
是的。
Yeah.
你当时这个判断太准了。
So That was a great call.
对。
Yeah.
卡瓦西娜女士那周去了苏黎世和伦敦。
So miss Calvasina went to Zurich in London.
那一整周，我都在跟投资者交流，他们根本不想谈美国股市整体走势会怎么走。
And, essentially, I spent the entire week talking to investors who did not want to talk about where the broader US equity market was headed.
他们关心的全是仓位配置。
What they wanted to talk about was positioning.
我一场接一场地开会，每次都有人问我：咱们能不能逐个板块过一遍？
And so I went into meeting after meeting after meeting where people said, can we just run through the sectors?
我们能不能逐个看看各个行业？
Can we run through industries?
特别是在伦敦，我接触了不少投资者，他们说一直在做人工智能相关的投资。
In London in particular, what we found was I talked to a number of investors who said, I've been in the AI trade.
我一直在关注美国市场。
I've been in The US.
我坚信人工智能这个方向。
I believe in the AI trade.
我认可它的基本面向好。
I believe in the fundamentals.
我的收益还不错。
I've done pretty well.
咱们不妨看看其他板块和行业有哪些机会。
Let's go look through other sectors and other industries.
他们没明说想获利了结，但意思很明显。
And they didn't specifically tell me they were looking to take some money off the table, but that was the implication.
是
Was
我现在该怎么做？
What should I do now?
其他方面。
Other things.
没错。
Right.
一年前，我猜伦敦、瑞士那些人还会问我：洛里，给我讲讲人工智能、美光和半导体吧。
A year ago, my guess is the same people in London and Switzerland and whatever, they were saying, Lori, tell me all about AI and Micron and semiconductors.
现在他们却说，我们想换个方向了，市场已经反映了这一点。
Now they're saying, we wanna move on and the market has reflected that.
对。
Right.
我们现在纠结的是，如果要转向新的领域，接下来该关注什么呢？
And what were struggling with is, if we want to move on, what is the next thing that we look at?
所以我们之前会聊金融行业这样的领域。
So we would talk about, for example, the financial sector.
我接触过不少人，他们说：我已经试过银行了，或者咱们聊聊医疗行业吧。
And I talked to a number of people who are like, I've tried the banks or let's talk about health care.
嗯，试过了。
Okay.
试过那条路了。
I've tried that.
没成功。
It hasn't worked.
关于医疗行业，我们讨论过，我回美国后这段对话还在继续：如果你看医疗板块，估值还算有吸引力，但盈利预期的调整一直在上下波动，说不准是强是弱。
What we talked about with health care, and I would say this kind of conversation continued after I got back to The States, was if you're looking at health care where the valuations are reasonably attractive, earnings revisions kind of go back and forth into whether or not they're strong or not.
但回头看看，从十月开始，科技股表现强势的时候，医疗股就落后。
But if you look back since October when tech outperforms, health care lags.
而一旦科技股出现波动，医疗股反而往往表现更好。
And when tech's had its wobbles, health care tends to outperform.
所以我们开始讨论把医疗板块作为投资组合中的对冲工具，用来应对科技股暂时休整的时候。
So we started talking about health care as a hedge within your portfolio for those moments when tech might take a bit of a breather.
这其实挺有意思的，布莱恩，因为我一开始这么讲的时候，还特意把医疗板块中性化了，对吧？
It was really interesting, Brian, because when I started to talk about it that way, and I neutral the sector, right?
我们并没有在那里大力鼓吹它，但当我这么解释它在投资组合里的作用时，你能看到人们的眼神一下子亮了起来。
We're not sitting there pounding the table on it, but when I started to talk about its function in the portfolio that way, you could sort of see people's like their eyes kind of lit up.
他们很乐意聊这个话题，因为这种重新定义让他们明白，医疗板块可能不是每天都能涨，但如果你关注它，它确实能发挥这样的作用。
They got excited to have that conversation because it was the reframing of the sector and let them understand it might not work every day, but if I'm interested in this, it can it can play this role for
我。
me.
所以，洛里，当你
So, Lori, when you
但从另一个角度看，盈利数据总能让投资者感到意外。
look at it though, earnings always shock the investor.
是的。
Yeah.
盈利表现把这个问题推到了最前面。
And earnings put it on the forefront.
所以大家一窝蜂抛售这些股票，狠狠打压，结果一出财报，立马打脸，发现这些公司照样能赚钱。
So everyone sells these stocks off, you pummel them, and then our earnings going to make them whiplash and say these guys can still make money.
我们其实一直都在强调这一点，尤其是在欧洲。
Well, here's here's the thing that we also we were pointing out in Europe, and we've been pointing out ever since.
如果你看看半导体行业未来一年和未来两年的盈利预期上调幅度，这能很好地反映市场对盈利的信心。
If you look at the rate of upward revisions for semis and we do an f y one and f y two, so this year and next year, this is a good gauge of earning sentiment.
别人管这叫盈利覆盖广度，其实就是看我们上调预期的速度有多快。
Other people call it earnings breadth, but it's just what's the pace at which we're taking numbers up.
这个数据在半导体和半导体设备板块一直非常高。
That stat has been very very high for the semiconductor and semi equipment group.
如果放眼整个罗素3000指数，现在都达到了历史高点。
If you look across the Russell three thousand, it's at peak levels.
单看这张图，你可能会觉得有点吓人。
Now in and of itself, you look at that chart, you're like, oh, that's a little scary.
这确实让人有点不安。
That's a little squeamish.
我跟大家强调的是，得先看到这个指标开始下滑，才能真正认为市场对这个板块失去了信心。因为回顾历史，我们的图表显示有二三十年了，指标长期处于高位的情况并不少见。
The thing I've emphasized to people is you need to see a deterioration in that before you have, you know, sort of a real repudiation of the group because if you look back historically, and we I forget if our chart is twenty or thirty years, you can get stuck at peak levels of upward revisions for multiple years in a row.
所以我们告诉别人，如果接下来还会有新一轮抛售，那可能就是从修订预期的下降开始的。
So, you know, we've told people if there's going to be another sort of leg to this selling, we might see evidence of that if we start to see a downtick in revisions.
但目前为止，我们还没看到这样的迹象。
We haven't seen it yet.
但这并不意味着盈利预期会下调。
Now that doesn't mean you get downward revisions to earnings.
只是上调的节奏变慢了。
You get a slower pace of upward revisions.
这是二阶导数的问题。
It's the second derivative.
明白了。
Alright.
很不错。
Good stuff.
顺便说一句，你之前提到的旅行的力量、坐飞机的意义，还有读懂言外之意的能力，真的太棒了。
And by the way, great call back and made the power of travel, the power of getting on a plane and human beings, and sort of reading between the lines.
还有，认真听别人说话，说实话。
And listening to people, frankly.
不是光对着人讲，而是真正去听。
Like, just talking at people, but listening.
那是什么？
What's that?
哦，这建议很好。
Oh, it's good advice.
对。
Yes.
太完美了。
It's perfect.
你这么处理真不错。
I like the way you played that.
这主意挺好。
Good idea.
是的。
Yeah.
这跟你的延迟笑话不相上下。
It's right up there with your latency joke.
卡瓦西纳，我们一直听他讲话。
Calvasina, who we always listen to.
谢谢。
Thank you.
很高兴见到大家。
Good to see you all.
不客气。
You're very welcome.
祝你今天
Have a nice
愉快。
day.
哦，不好意思。
Oh, sorry.
接下来，说到非AI命名的话题，丹，联邦快递最近怎么样？
Coming up, speaking of non AI names, Dan, how is Fedex doing?
接下来是弗兰克·霍兰德带来的他们最新季度的详细数据，还有。
The details from their latest quarter with Frank Holland next plus.
买家们至少今天又回流到SpaceX了。
Buyers, they're back into SpaceX at least today.
现在又怎么了？
What now?
还有黄金。
And gold.
还有什么能阻止它继续下跌吗？
Will anything stop it from keeping going down?
我们马上回来。
We are back right after this.
周四，
Thursday,
7月16日，CNBC体育与Boardroom携手Fanatics Fest，带来赛事策略专场。
July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan.
一些开创性的理念，正在重塑体育与娱乐的未来。
Groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
想获取邀请，请访问cnbcevents.com/gameplan。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
好的。
Alright.
欢迎回到《快钱》，各位。
Welcome back to Fast Money, everybody.
这事儿可不只是技术问题。
It's not just all about technology.
联邦快递的股价现在跌了6%，尽管公司营收和利润都超出了预期。
Fedex shares, they're down 6% right now despite the fact that the company beat on both the top and the bottom line.
我们请来弗兰克·霍兰德，一起来看看这背后到底发生了什么。
So let's bring in Frank Holland to try to figure out what's going on here.
弗兰克。
Frank.
嗨，布莱恩。
Hey there, Brian.
业绩确实超预期了，但也有个不小的缺口。
Those beats were strong, there was also a pretty big miss.
主要是联邦快递快递业务的利润率，包括陆运和空运。
That was margin for FedEx Express that includes ground and air delivery.
利润率只有8.9%，低于预期的9.2%，而利润率反映的是网络运营效率。
Margin came in at 8.9% compared to the estimate of 9.2%, and margin is proxy for network efficiency.
投资者可能也在琢磨联邦快递在转向与日历年度一致的财年时给出的指引。
Investors may also be trying to figure out the guidance provided by FedEx as it transitions to a fiscal year that matches the calendar year.
在联邦快递货运业务分拆之后，针对今年剩余的七个月，指引的区间是60亿到181亿美元。
The guidance provided for essentially the last seven months of the year post Fedex freight spin off is 6090 to 1810.
我们的数据团队说，这个数据没法直接对比。
Our data team says that's not comparable.
至少我们自己没在做这种比较。
At least we're not comparing.
我知道你那边有分析师要发言。
I know you have analysts coming up.
也许他们能说清楚。
Maybe they can.
不过，尽管在指引上有些混乱，利润率也没达标，这份报告里还是有不少亮点。
However, despite the potential confusion around that and the margin missed, there were a number of bright spots in this report.
美国地区的发货量增长了3%，定价提升了10%。
US volumes up 3%, US pricing up 10%.
联邦快递还表示，将根据市场情况择机回购股票，总额最高可达10亿美元。
FedEx also said it would buy back shares opportunistically, up to about $1,000,000,000 of those shares, in fact.
这份报告中另一个值得注意的点是，联邦快递货运业务的业绩超出了预期，营收和利润都表现强劲。
One other interesting part of this report, the strength of Fedex freight, beat on the top and bottom line for, that segment.
这虽然是联邦快递最后一次包含这部分数据的季度财报，但它仍持有该公司约20%的股份。
Again, this is the last quarter Fedex will include those numbers, but it still owns just about 20% of the company.
你可以看到，自分拆以来，这些股票的股价已经上涨了20%以上。
You can see here, those shares have risen more than 20% since the spin.
因此，这些持股在这段时间里实际在增值。
So those holdings actually gaining value over that time.
布莱恩·贝克将进行后续分析。
Brian Beck will review.
好的。
Alright.
弗兰克·霍兰德将带来关于联邦快递的报道。
Frank Holland on Fedex.
弗兰克，非常感谢。
Frank, thanks very much.
好的。
Alright.
凯伦，你们公司是哪种类型？
Karen, your type of company?
原本是我的，但最近更像蒂米的公司了。
Mine, but actually, it's more of a Timmy company lately.
我就直说了，我对这些数字其实没那么在意。
Well, I'll just say that I I I think I don't really care about these numbers that much.
关键是，现在从以前全靠联邦快递的模式，过渡到了更聚焦包裹业务的新模式，我觉得这些数字没那么重要。
I mean, the point is that there's there's now you've got a bridge from the old all all in Fedex into now the more parcel focused one, and I don't think these numbers mean that much.
弗兰克也提到了，利润率确实不太理想，但我认为你正是在趁低吸纳。
And and I actually think it was a bad margin number as Frank hit on, but I think you're buying this weakness.
好的。
Alright.
各位，这里有条突发新闻。
We got some breaking news here, folks.
真的很有趣。
Is really interesting.
道琼斯工业平均指数出现了变动。
Changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
有人在乎吗？
Does anybody care?
是那些狗股。
The dogs.
我们马上就能知道了。
They they we're gonna find out.
麦肯齐·西加洛斯，有什么新消息？
Mackenzie Segalos, what's the news?
布赖恩，这里有点变动。
So a bit of a shake up here, Brian.
根据标普道琼斯指数的公告，阿尔法贝特将在下周一，也就是6月29日开盘前取代威瑞森，加入道琼斯工业平均指数，这会让道指对大型科技股和人工智能板块的敞口更大。
We've got the S and P Dow Jones indices saying that Alphabet will replace Verizon and the Dow Jones Industrial Average before the open on Monday, June 29, really giving the Dow more exposure to mega cap tech and the AI trade.
霍尼韦尔航空航天公司将在周一加入标普500指数，接替康帕格的位置。
Honeywell Aerospace will join the S and P 500 on Monday replacing Conagra.
霍尼韦尔科技公司将继续留在标普500指数中。
Honeywell Technologies will remain in the S and P 500.
我想说的是，这其实是个象征性的调整。
What I will say, this is a bit of a symbolic shift.
最近威瑞森在道指里几乎可以忽略不计了，因为它的股价偏低，而道指是按价格加权的。
You've got Verizon becoming almost immaterial to the Dow lately because it's a lower priced stock and a price weighted index.
标普在公告里提到，威瑞森在指数里的权重还不到百分之零点五。
S and P said in this release that it represented just half of one percentage point in the index.
阿尔法贝特的股价和市值都高得多，更能代表通信服务这个板块。
Alphabet, of course, has a much larger share price and market cap, making it more representative of that communication services sector.
而且我要说，这次调整正好赶在阿尔法贝特本周承受压力的时候。
And I will say the change comes as alphabet's been under pressure this week.
我们刚才还在聊周一的抛售潮。
You and I were chatting about the sell off on Monday.
所以不到一周就要迎来这些调整了。
So shifts coming up in in less than a week from now.
真的吗？
Wow.
这还挺重要的。
It's kind of a big deal.
麦肯齐·塞加利斯，非常感谢。
Mackenzie Segalis, thank you very much.
我想提一下这件事，因为这是突发新闻。
I wanna throw this out to the table because this is breaking news.
我们这边没做任何安排。
We don't have anything planned.
我知道在座的没人真正在意道指。
I understand that nobody really cares about the Dow around this table.
我明白。
I get it.
这更多是个象征意义，但你要看埃克森美孚，史蒂夫·格拉斯霍被踢出了道指。
It's more symbolic, but I will say when you look at ExxonMobil, Steve Grassho got booted from the Dow.
道指现在都五千三百多点了，要是埃克森还在，它的表现肯定远超接替它的Salesforce。
The Dow being, like, 53, 54,000 if Exxon was still in its well outperformed the company that replaced it, Salesforce.
没错。
Right.
那沃达丰是不是反而成了一个反向买入信号？
Maybe is this an inverse buy signal on Verizon?
大家总是这样。
So people always do this.
对吧？
Right?
你总觉得该买那个新进来的股票，但我其实想说，选项其实有六个呢。
You you wanna everyone thinks you have to buy the one that goes in, but ultimately I'm saying the options, six baby.
几个月后，它们会反过来，因为大家都想买进新进来的，却卖出被替换的，结果不到半年就又倒腾回来了。
Months out, they reverse each other because everyone wants to buy and then But sell the one that comes but you wind up you wind up reversing that action within six months.
你这话说到点子上了，历史数据其实能证明这一点，就是你……
So you're you're onto something there, I think historic data proves How you
到底有多少资金是跟道指挂钩的，相比标普或者其他指数？
much money is actually indexed to the Dow relative to anything?
是标普吗？还是别的？
The S and P or what?
更该问的是，你干嘛要跟道指挂钩？
The better question is, why would you be indexed to the Dow?
是啊，我也说不清。
Yeah, I don't know.
因为道指是价格加权的，对吧？
Well, you got a price weighted average, right?
这就导致它的波动特别不稳定。
So, that throws you around.
标普是按市值加权，道指是按价格加权。
Market cap weighted with the S and P, price weighted with Dow.
对，但到底有多少资金是投在指数基金里的呢，我不确定。
Right, but is there a ton of money I don't know.
道指指数基金的投资者。
Down indexers
反正我们都不会把钱投到那儿去。
that None of us are gonna put money there.
我们都在关注其他的指数。
We're all paying attention to other ones.
问题是，除了直接参与市场的人，还有什么能真正代表市场呢？
I mean, the problem is the proxy proxy for the market other than people who are in the market.
你懂的。
You know?
随便看看哪家主流媒体的报道就知道了。
I mean, just look at any major, you know, news publication.
他们老在引用道琼斯工业平均指数，这根本说不通。
They're quoting the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which makes absolute no doesn't make any sense.
我的意思是，一只股票涨到346美元，就因此成了道指里第五大高价股，这逻辑完全不对。
I mean, it's not like this stock going in there at $346 makes it the fifth largest priced stock in the Dow Jones and Ducks.
一旦把低价股剔除，整个动态就全变了。
It just changes the dynamic altogether when you take out a low.
所以这事儿真没道理，咱们干脆别提了。
So it just doesn't make any sense if we could stop talking about it.
这确实像在玩花样，但问题就在这儿。
Well, it's games but there's the point.
这是一种耍手段，太荒谬了。
It's gamesmanship, which is absurd.
对。
Yeah.
因为道指早就过时了，不只是因为它构成方式有问题，我就不多说了。
Because, you know, the Dow has become irrelevant not only because how it's constituted constituted is I'll say I'll save my French here.
这对我来说真没什么道理。
It it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
但说我们想更侧重科技股，我理解。
But to say we wanna be more tech heavy, I get it.
这就像新兴市场表现最好，是因为那里有两家最大的科技公司。
I mean, it's kind of like like emerging markets are the best performing market in the world because they had the two of the biggest tech companies there.
突然间，第一次出现这种情况。
Suddenly, the first time
是的。
Yeah.
以前大家都不愿投资这些外国市场，觉得它们科技股太少，现在却因为有了科技股而表现更优。
These foreign markets that people didn't wanna own because they didn't have enough tech are outperforming because they have tech.
麦肯齐的报道确实很到位。
I don't you know, great reporting by Mackenzie.
所以我们要说清楚。
So let's be clear.
这事儿挺有意思的，说实话。
This is this is I I think, you know, it's an interesting story.
这很有象征意义。
It's symbolic.
确实让人忍不住想。
You do wonder.
这会不会是谷歌的顶部信号？或者是个买入契机？谁知道呢。
Is it, at some sort of top on alphabet and a buy signal for who knows?
明天就能知道了。
We'll find out tomorrow.
这算个头条新闻。
It's a headline.
不过眼下，咱们还是回到联邦快递的财报，有请布兰登·奥格伦斯基。
For now, though, let's get back to Fedex's earnings and bring in Brandon Oglenski.
他是巴克莱银行的股票研究分析师，负责北美运输行业。
He is equity research analyst at Barclays covering the North America transportation sector.
布兰登，感谢你的耐心等待。
Brandon, thank you for your patience.
刚才我们刚发布了一条重大突发新闻。
We had some big breaking news there.
我们多给了你几分钟时间看联邦快递的财报数据。
We just gave you a couple more minutes to look at the Fedex numbers.
那你怎么看？
So what is your what is your take?
你觉得最值得关注的是什么？
What sticks out to you?
是的，布莱恩。
Yeah, Brian.
谢谢邀请我们做客，也感谢你们今晚讨论这些真正重要的新闻。
And thanks for having us on and, like, you know, talking about news that maybe does matter tonight.
对联邦快递来说，关键在于他们的财报数据比较难分析，因为他们正从财年周期转向常规的季度报告周期，同时还在拆分货运业务。
I think what's important for Fedex here the because numbers are hard to dissect because they're moving from a fiscal calendar to a, you know, regular calendar quarter reporting season as well as spinning off the freight business.
所以要准确判断市场一致预期是多少确实不容易，但我们觉得可能在18美元以上。
So it's gonna be hard to really pin down where consensus expectations were, but we think maybe north of $18.
也就是说，整体业绩可能比预期低了4%到5%。
So maybe on the headline of four to 5% miss here.
不过，我基本同意之前那些观点。
But I kind of agree with the prior comments.
这些分析多少有点回头看的意思。
That's somewhat backward looking here.
我们现在讨论的是一家预计今年剩余时间每股收益能增长20%的公司。
We're talking about a company that's guiding to 20% EPS growth for the remainder of the year.
他们的营收增幅也达到了两位数以上。
They're seeing plus teens revenue growth here.
我觉得这可能是三四年来的第一次，像联邦快递这样的公司，同时在消费、国际和工业需求这三个方面全都火力全开，而它本身又具备巨大的运营杠杆潜力。
I'd argue probably the first time in about three or four years that we're seeing both consumer, international, and industrial demand really firing on all cylinders for a company like Fedex that has enormous potential operating leverage here.
别忘了，他们还在整合美国境内的快递和地面运输网络，我们估计未来几年还能再节省20亿到30亿美元的成本。
Let's not forget as well, they're also merging their expressing ground networks across The US where we think there's still 2 to $3,000,000,000 of cost takeout opportunity over the next few years.
如果算一下这笔账，未来三到五年，利润可能翻一倍以上。
If you play out the math here, this could be more than a double in earnings in three to five years.
天哪。
Wow.
所以你是认可这些数字的吗？
So so you're you're good you're good with the numbers?
你觉得这个估值怎么样，布兰登？
You're good with the valuation, Brandon?
我们对这家公司非常看好，尤其是考虑到UPS现在遇到的困难。
I mean, we're very bullish on this, especially in the context of the struggles at UPS.
在美国，做端到端小包裹B2B物流的，本质上还是这两家垄断。
I mean, this is still a duopoly for end to end business to business, shippers that wanna move small packages in The US.
我相信很多人都知道，UPS现在正在缩减网络，导致固定成本上升，客户运费上涨，服务体验也可能变差。
And I'm sure a lot of you know, UPS is undergoing a network, shrink, activity right now that's really driving their fixed cost hires, driving a lot of price for UPS customers, objectively, potentially lower service for them too.
而联邦快递反而在变得更高效、更快，对终端消费者来说可能还更便宜。
And here's FedEx actually becoming more efficient, faster, and likely cheaper to the end consumer.
所以我们认为，这对联邦快递来说是一个非常看好的长期趋势。
So we think this is actually a very bullish long term trend, for FedEx.
我是凯伦。
It's Karen.
谢谢你的参与。
Thanks for being on.
你给出了125美元的目标价。
So you have $125 price target.
那你是怎么得出这个数字的？
So how do you get there?
这主要是基于联邦快递自身的盈利潜力，现在公司就叫这个名字了，因为他们已经把联邦快递货运分拆出去了，那部分将在两天后公布财报。
I mean, that's really looking at standalone earnings power of Federal Express, which is now, the name of the company because they've spun out FedEx Freight, which will have their earnings call in two nights here.
但我们其实只是给它们未来的盈利潜力施加了一个略低于市场平均水平的估值倍数，凯伦。
But we're really just putting kind of, you know, an even below average market multiple on what we think is their future earnings power here, Karen.
我觉得，如果这家公司能持续保持这种表现，这个预期可能还算是比较保守的。
And I think if anything, that's probably a conservative outlook if this company can keep delivering.
好的。
Alright.
Brandon Oglenski，巴克莱银行。
Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.
非常感谢你抽出时间，Brandon。
Really appreciate your time, Brandon.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
谢谢，Brian。
Thanks, Brian.
好的。
Alright.
目前股价下跌了大约6%。
Stock down about 6% right now.
接下来，看看今天的反弹情况——SpaceX短暂跌破了2万亿美元的市值大关。
Coming up, the rebound, at least today, out of SpaceX briefly falling below the 2,000,000,000,000 market cap number.
顺便说一下，黄金价格下跌，是因为投资者对它的热情还在持续消退。
The move lower in gold, by the way, is a little bit of that investor luster just continues to fall away.
我们还剩半小时。
We got a half an hour left.
您正在收看CNBC纳斯达克市场频道的《快钱》直播，广告后马上回来。
You're watching Fast Money live for the Nasdaq market site, and we are back right after.
7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest，带来关于体育与娱乐未来发展的创新理念。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
好的。
Alright.
欢迎回到《快钱》，各位观众。
Welcome back to Fast Money, everybody.
希望你们今天过得不错。
Hope you're having a great Tuesday.
不管你在哪里，科技股今天都没好日子过。
No matter where you are, technology did not have a great Tuesday.
今天是科技股带头拖垮了整个市场。
It led the broader market sell off today.
标普500跌了大约1.5%。
The S and P falling about one and a half percent.
纳斯达克更是暴跌超过2%。
The Nasdaq tumbling more than 2%.
道指倒是收盘基本没动。
The Dow did end the day virtually flat.
对了，刚听到个消息。
By the way, might have just heard the news.
威瑞森要退出道指，而字母表/谷歌根本不在乎。
Verizon is gonna leave the Dow alphabet slash Google in Tim doesn't care.
黄金价格又跌了。
Gold dropping again.
今天黄金又跌了1%。
Gold down another 1% today.
自伊朗冲突爆发以来，黄金已经下跌超过21%。
It is down more than 21%, really since the Iran conflict began.
顺便说一下，你可能对SpaceX感兴趣。
Meantime, you might care about SpaceX.
那件事发生后，股价一度又开始下跌。
Shares did begin the day down again briefly when that happened.
股价一度跌破两万亿美元市值，但随后买盘回来了。
Stock was below 2,000,000,000,000 in market cap, then the buyers came back in.
最终股价收涨了一点，涨幅不大，但还是比上周高点低了20%。
The stock did end up higher and with a small gain, not a lot, but still down 20% from its highs of last week.
所以SpaceX的股票，除非你今天抄在最低点，或者根本就没买过，不然大概率亏钱了。
So SpaceX stock, really unless you bought at the low today or the first trade you ever, you've probably lost money.
另外，耐克在宣布CFO人事变动后，股价上涨了。
Shares of Nike, by the way, higher after announcing a planned CFO transition.
公司还表示，下周二的财报中将包含关税退款带来的收益，而这一点此前并未包含在他们的指引中。
Company also saying it will include a benefit from tariff refunds in their earnings report next Tuesday, and that it was not included in the company's previously provided guidance.
换句话说，关税方面可能会给你带来一次性的提振。
In other words, you might get a a one time lift on the tariff side.
盘后交易中，KB Home的股价有所上涨。
Some after hours action shares of KB Home are higher.
他们的营收超过了预期。
They topped revenue estimates.
史蒂夫·格拉索，你对KB Home股价上涨2.5%有什么看法？
Steve Grasso, you got a comment on KB Home stocks up 2.5%.
显而易见，房间里最大的问题就是利率。
Obviously, the elephant in the room are rates.
利率无疑是整个板块的阻力。
Rates are definitely a headwind to this whole group.
但从估值角度看，现在可能是买入住宅建筑商股票的好时机。
But on a valuation standpoint, this is probably where you want to buy the home builders.
咱们现在讨论的是，什么时候该买或卖内存芯片制造商的股票。
You know, we're talking about where you buy, where you sell the memory chip makers.
如果你看看整个住宅建筑商板块的各项指标，它们全都被抛售了。
If you look at what their metrics are across the whole homebuilder spectrum, they're all being thrown out.
它们的表现远远落后于整个板块。
They've underperformed the entire group.
你可以选家得宝，也可以选劳氏，都能参与，但它们都属于同一类，因为高端产品本来就需要更低的利率。
So you can go Home Depot, can go Lowe's, you could play it, but they're all placed from the same bucket because for those high end products, you need lower rates anyway.
我反而会在股价疲软时买入这一板块，我觉得降息很快就会来，而且没人觉得降息会来。
I would probably be a buyer of the group on weakness because I think lower rates are coming and I think no one thinks they're coming.
我觉得市场还在预期美国银行的预测，说到2026年底可能会加息两次。
And I think people are pricing in Bank of America, I think has it up to two rate hikes by the end of twenty twenty six.
我觉得
I think
你可能会看到一百次加息。
you'll see 100 rate hikes.
你是说利率会开始下降吧？
You're talking about rates going see a
利率下调。
rate rate cut.
因为债券市场
Because the bond
市场会按自己的节奏走。
market is gonna do what it wants.
它已经提前上涨了。
It's already risen ahead.
债券市场一向都是按自己的想法行事。
The bond market always does what it wants.
而且它总是在措辞出来之前就提前反应了，我
And and it it goes ahead on verbiage I
那
that
我们，我
we I
那就这样吧。
that's can it.
全球局势的最新进展。
Developments in world.
中东局势可能让油价进一步下跌。
The Middle East could send prices is even lower.
更多关于能源和石油的分析，等Fast Money节目回来后继续。好了。
More on energy, oil, and more when fast money returns right after Alright.
欢迎回来。
Welcome back.
我们来聊聊石油和能源。
Let's talk about oil and energy.
今天原油价格急剧下跌，此前美国财政部发布了一项为期60天的许可，允许以美元交易伊朗的石油生产和销售。
Crude oil's drop steepening today comes after the US treasury issued a sixty day license authorizing a production, delivery, and sale of oil from Iran in US dollars.
约翰·科林在绿光商品公司和机构经纪公司跟踪石油动态，专攻事件驱动型合约。
John Collin follows oil at Greenlight Commodities and Institutional Brokerage for event based contracts.
约翰，欢迎你。
John, welcome.
我看着现在的油价，每桶79、73，甚至72美元，按理说还是该有个地缘风险溢价的。
I mean, I'm I'm looking at this thinking 79 or 73, $72 for a barrel of oil, and there still should be some kind of war risk premium.
所以在我看来，市场明显想把油价压得更低，但没人在乎我的看法。
So to me, that tells me the tape wants to take oil a lot lower, but nobody cares what I say.
你怎么看？
What do you say?
其实，谢谢你邀请我。
Well, actually, thanks for having me.
我确实很关注今天的行情，布莱恩，因为我和你看法一致。
I I care what we have today, Brian, because I I agree with you on that.
我觉得我们已经看到市场要狠狠打压一波了，这里得小心点。
I think we've already seen I wanna get crushed crushed a little bit here.
我们可能会看到价格触及60美元这个关口。
We're probably gonna see something with the six handle.
我觉得不会一夜之间就跌到那儿。
I don't think we're gonna see it overnight.
更可能是慢慢往下磨。
It's probably gonna be a slow grind down.
现在我们这边有不少人持仓。
We we've got a lot of people in on our side of the thin thinning here.
对冲基金上周新开了大约180亿美元的空单。
Hedge funds, I think, about $18,000,000,000 in new shorts in the last week.
这周对冲基金的新交易中，空单占了八成左右，但我不确定底部是不是已经到了。
Short sales account for about 80% of new trades from hedge funds this week, and I don't know if we've we've seen the floor yet.
你觉得底部会在哪儿？
Where do you think the floor might be?
这是个好问题。
It's a great question.
我之前说过，我觉得会到六百。
I I I said earlier, I I believe a six handle.
我的意思是，可能六十五又会成为之前的那个水平。
I I mean, maybe 65 is is the old 65 again perhaps.
我现在不太清楚现在几点了。
I I don't What's the time
约翰，你对这个时间点怎么看？
frame on that, John?
六十五会出现在八月左右吗？
65 by, like, August?
大概会在八月左右。
It's gonna be a It's gonna be a about August.
是的。
Yeah.
一个月，或者六周，我觉得是四到六周吧。
A a month, six weeks, four to six weeks, I think.
你实际上比远期曲线还要乐观，因为我看了一下到十一月的期货合约，最低价大概在71美元左右，对吧？
So you're actually ahead of the forward curves because I look out at the futures contracts through November, the low is around $71, right, grass?
所以十一月大概是71美元，差不多是这个水平。
So it's like 71 for November, something like that.
这么说，你对价格的预期比期货市场显示的还要更悲观一些。
So you're actually a little more bearish on the price than the futures contracts might indicate.
我是这么想的，有时候早上醒来，吃点坚果当早餐，然后我就变得看空了，这我也没办法。
I am, Sometimes I wake up and I eat nuts for breakfast and then I'm a I'm a bear and I I I can't help but being that way.
不过，我觉得现在还是应该继续做空，然后再考虑要不要建仓。
But, yeah, I think I would still be short here and then then maybe heading to a position.
所以，约翰，我来帮你一把。
So, John, I I I'll help you.
我们都在讨论同一个问题，就是走势方向。
We're all talking about the
关于走势方向，大家的看法都一致。
same thing on the on directionality.
战前，我们每天大概有八百万桶的供应过剩。
So prewar, we were probably had a supply glut of about 8,000,000 barrels per day.
一旦战争结束，沙特、伊拉克，甚至伊朗恢复生产，而美国又不再出口，我们很可能会再次回到每天八百万桶的过剩水平。
Once you have this resolution to the war and the the Saudis, Iraq, and then even Iran coming back online and then The US not exporting, I could get us back to probably filling that gap back to 8,000,000 surplus.
所以，正如布莱恩提到的，如果霍尔木兹海峡保持开放、不收过路费，我们是不是就能认为这不再是个地缘政治风险了？还是说，关键现在在于阿曼和伊朗会不会开始收费？
So to Brian's point, are we all if the Hormuz Strait is open, no tolls, do we get to a point where we can start talking about this as it's not a geopolitical risk anymore, or is it it all depends on Oman and Iran now charging fees?
这是目前唯一剩下的明显风险。
That's the only risk the obvious risk left.
这确实是个明显的风险。
I that that's certainly an obvious risk.
这要看伊朗内部局势怎么发展，哪个派系掌握主导权，有时候情况会变。
I I think that's depending on the on which way the wind blows sometimes inside Iran or which factions, you know, has has more control.
你肯定会看到各种收费措施被陆续推出。
You're going to see you're gonna see tolls being being assertive.
我不认为这对他们自己有利。
I I don't believe I don't believe that's in their best interest.
他们心里清楚。
They know that.
你知道吗，他们上周就卖了三千万桶原油，用的是美元计价，不是其他货币。
You know, they sold 30,000,000 barrels last year last week, I believe, in the market in the dollar, not the one.
所以我觉得，伊朗最好的做法是不收过路费，尽量配合这个租赁协议，保持良好关系。
So I I think it's in Iran's best interest to to not charge tolls and to to try and be as copacetic as possible with this whole rental agreement.
约翰，非常感谢你的分享。
John, really appreciate that.
我知道很多人整个夏天都在忙着给车加油。
I know a lot of people out there filling up their tanks with gas all summer long.
真希望你说得对。
Certainly hope that you are right.
约翰·科林，轮到你了。
John Collin, green light.
非常感谢你，约翰。
We really appreciate it, John.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
蒂姆，能源贸易的情况怎么样？
Tim, energy's trade take?
我仍然觉得石油服务行业是个不错的选择，尤其是现在全球各国都在寻找新技术和创新，以开采新的石油储量——三个月前，大家都下定决心再也不要陷入这种境地了。
I still think oil services are a great place to be, especially given the world that that there's a a search for technology and innovation to find new barrels of oil by every country in the world that three months ago felt like we don't ever want to find ourselves in this position again.
我觉得补库存才是更重要的事。
I think restocking is a bigger deal.
我明白市场反应过度了。
I understand how markets have overreacted.
我刚说过这一点。
I just said it.
我认为市场对仍存在的大量不确定性反应过度了。
I think markets have overreacted to correct a lot of uncertainty that's still out there.
继续说。
Go on.
你是说，把油价压得太低了？
You mean, send oil too far down?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我们可能达成协议，也可能达不成。
I mean, I I we may or may not have a deal.
咱们就先假设会达成吧。
I'm not let let's just assume we do.
现在这种平衡其实非常脆弱。
The the I think it's a very tenuous balance right now.
市场上伊朗石油的供应确实太多了，但我认为我们不会真的陷入那种局面。
And, there's too much supply for Iranian oils out there, but I don't think we live in that world.
所以我这段时间一直看好这个领域。
So I like this space for a while.
每次伊朗局势传出坏消息，我都会再买一点，因为我觉得就算冲突解决了，未来还是会有很多新买家想进入能源领域，就像我们今天聊的那样。
And every time there's some bad news on the Iranian war situation, I buy some more because I think that even if it gets resolved, that still there's gonna be new buyers that wanna be in the energy space as we talk about today.
再买点什么？
Buy some more what?
大型石油和天然气股票吗？
Large cap oil and gas?
主要是OYH，就是做油田服务的，还有XLE。
Well, OYH, which is, you know, for the oil field services, XLE.
跟大盘比起来，它已经涨了不少，但收益率还不到3%，算不上高，但依然挺有吸引力。
You know, relative to the market, it's it's moved a fair amount, but it's still a attractive place to be less than around the 3% yield, not quite.
所以我打算继续持有。
So I wanna be there.
我目前已经持有了。
I am there.
明白了。
Alright.
接下来，我们来看看高盛和摩根士丹利过去几个月的表现，但这些银行是不是飞得太高了？
Coming up, some financial fury of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley over the past couple of months, but have the banks flown just a
有点太高了
little bit
太接近太阳了？
too close to the sun?
接下来，那位著名的图表专家、勤奋的研究员将深入分析这一现象的技术面。
The aforementioned chart master, harder work, digs into the technicals on just that next.
好的。
Alright.
欢迎回来。
Welcome back.
到目前为止，金融板块这个月表现不错。
It has been a winning month for the financials so far.
事实上，金融板块是六月表现最好的板块，涨幅接近百分之四点五。
In fact, it is June's best performing sector, the financials, up about four and a half percent.
但别掉以轻心。
But don't get complacent.
图表专家发现这两家投行内部有些隐患。
The chart master sees some trouble in a pair of investment banks into into the group.
我们来了解一下具体情况，以及是哪两家银行，有请卡特·沃思。
Let's find out what that is and who those are with Carter Worth.
卡特？
Carter?
对。
Yeah.
与其说是麻烦，不如说它们涨得太猛了，接下来可能没什么太大上涨空间，反而更担心回调的风险。
I mean, it's it's not so much trouble as it these have been so good that the risk is that they don't have as much upside potential as they do perspective give back risk.
我们来看一看。
But let's look at them.
这两家就是领头羊，最知名的大行：高盛和摩根士丹利。
These are the two leading whites, the biggest well known names, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
这是一张两年期的对比图，展示的是高盛和摩根士丹利这两只股票等权重组合，与BTX、标普指数以及行业板块的对比。很明显，最前面那条蓝色线——也就是GSMS两只股票的组合——遥遥领先。
What you have is a two year comparative chart and it's a two stock equal weight basket of those two, GS and MS, versus the BTX, versus the S and P and versus the sector, and you see of course who's leading the way by a long margin is that first blue line, that is the GSMS to stock basket.
我们再来看一张五年期的对比图，方便大家更好地理解这个趋势。
Let's do a five year comparative chart, just to put this in perspective.
再来一张十年期的对比图，让这个对比更清楚一些。
Let's do a ten year comparative chart, just to put this in perspective.
关键是，不管怎么看，这种超额表现都相当明显，至少在我看来是这样。
And the point is, this is, excess, any way you cut it, at least to my eye.
现在我们来看看这两只股票本身。先看这个组合的情况，这里显示的就是那两只股票的等权重组合——高盛占50%，摩根士丹利占50%。目前它们的价位，已经达到了过去几十年里罕见的高位，远远高于150日均线，这在同类工具中也极为少见。
So now the, the stocks themselves, let's look first at what the basket looks like, you'll see that here, this is, that two stock equoid basket, 50% Goldman, 50% Morgan Stanley, we're about as far above the one hundred and fifty day moving average as you're typically going to get, in this basket's life, but also in many instruments life.
我们再看个更长期的走势，这是五年图，这是十年图，接下来这张会更久，也是最后一张了。
Let's look at a longer term, that's a five year, here's a ten year, let's do even longer, it'll be the last chart.
这张图回溯到了大约二十年前。
This is going back some twenty years.
有意思的是，这两家投行彼此给对方的评级，竟然都预测对方股价明年会下跌，这真是挺讽刺的。
So what's interesting of course is that each of these brokerage firms have a rating on each other that calls for each stock going down in the year ahead, which is remarkable.
事实上，华尔街的所有分析师目前对这两只股票设定的目标价都表明，未来十二个月内股价将下跌百分之七到十。
And in fact, Wall Street itself, all analysts currently hold price targets for these stocks that suggest that both stocks will be seven to 10% lower in the coming twelve months.
无论如何，大多数人都是只做多，98%的资金都是如此。
Either way, most people are long only, 98% of the capital is.
如果你持有一些仓位，可以卖出看涨期权，采取一些对冲措施。
If you have some of this trim, sell calls, take some measures.
对于那些做空的人来说，现在正是他们被击中的时候。
For those who are short sellers, we'd hit them here.
好的。
Alright.
卡特·布拉克顿·沃思。
Carter Braxton Worth.
谢谢你的分享。
Appreciate that.
凯伦，可以说他们已经
Karen, it's fair to say that that they've
他们早就被提醒过了。
been warned.
他们早就被提醒过了。
They've been warned.
所以我一直持有J的股票。
And so, you know, I have long J.
还有P的。
P.
还有摩根，以及花旗银行的股票。
Morgan, long Citibank.
我不喜欢他们在财报前涨得这么高，财报就剩三周了，说不定更少。
I don't love when they run up as they have into earnings, which are only three weeks away, maybe even a little less.
我不太确定具体从什么时候开始。
I'm not sure when they start exactly.
所以我基本同意卡特的看法，短期内我会考虑卖出一些看涨期权。
But so I I kind of agree with Carter on the near term, so I would be looking to sell some upside calls.
卖出一些看涨期权。
Sell some upside calls.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，为什么华尔街对这个目标股如此看好，以及至少有一位分析师认为这只此前表现疲软的股票将走向何方。
Coming up, why Wall Street is bulled up on the bull's eye and where they see or at least one analyst sees shares of the aforementioned beaten up target headed.
股价会上涨。
It'll be headed higher.
广告后马上回来。
We're back right after this.
好的。
Alright.
录像可能中断了，但塔吉特股价可没掉队。
Tape might have been down, but not Target.
今天塔吉特股价上涨了超过3%。
Target shares were up today more than 3%.
Wolfe研究公司将Target评级上调至‘跑赢大盘’，目标价定为162美元。
Wolfe Research upgrading Target to an outperform with a Target price of a $162.
分析师指出，门店改造、运营改善、新管理层以及蒂姆·塞缪尔的贡献是主要原因。
The analyst citing store resets, improved execution, new leadership, and Tim Seymour.
这位分析师把Target列为他最新的零售业首选标的。
The analyst naming Target his new retail top pick.
我觉得门店改造的效果非常显著。
I think the stories resets are powerful.
顾客趋势明显在加速，Target已经连续好几个季度保持这种势头了。
I think the the customer trends are are certainly the ones that the trend is an accelerating trend, and it's been multiple quarters now for Target.
公司高层也进行了大力调整。
It's a case where also aggressive change in the c suite.
以前大家以为他们只是留着原来的内部团队。
You know, people thought, you've kind of kept, you know, the the insiders.
不是这样的。
No.
他们真的请了外部人士来坐CEO这个位置。
They they really have outside of the at in the CEO's chair.
我的意思是，他们确实做了不少改变。
I mean, they they really have made some changes here.
上个季度的同店销售额超出了预期。
So same store sales in last quarter surprised.
我觉得是5.6%左右。
I think it five and a half, 5.6%.
市场之前的预期其实很低。
The expectation is very low.
大家觉得，他们又重新成了人们愿意专程去的地方。
The feeling is that they are also becoming a destination again.
迟早，这种转变会反映在估值上。
At some point, this plays into the multiple.
你愿意为这只股票出多少钱？
What are you willing to pay for this name?
这是蒂姆博的茶，所以我愿意多花点钱，布莱恩。
It is the tea in Timbo, and therefore, I'm willing to pay a little something extra, Brian.
我觉得你这个高端定位，挺稳的。
I think I think you premium, stay Yeah.
是的。
Yes.
好的，先生。
Yes, sir.
你连蒂姆博的一块钱都愿意花。
You're willing to pay a Timbo buck too.
不错。
Nice.
哦，真不错。
Oh, nice.
好的。
Okay.
很不错。
Very nice.
好的。
Okay.
我早就加入了。
I I've been been on board.
太聪明了，
Genius, by
顺便说一下。
the way.
谢谢。
Oh, thank you.
是的。
Yes.
你真幽默。
You're funny.
是的。
Yes.
我知道。
I know.
哪儿好笑？
Funny how?
对啊。
Yeah.
小丑？
Clown?
每个人都很有趣。
Everyone's funny.
我还没像蒂姆博那样赶上塔吉特这班车，但我觉得这地方挺不错的。
So I I haven't been on the Target train as Timbo has, and it's been a good place to be.
我确实觉得转变正在真正发生。
I I actually do think the turn is really happening.
这里确实有种势头在积累。
There does seem to be momentum here.
那部分，就是目标商店以前专注提供独特商品，而不是试图讨好所有人，现在又回到这条路了。
That part, the target part where they had really interesting goods instead of trying to be everything to everybody, they're getting back to that.
高利润就在这里面。
That's where the high margins are.
我有点不情愿地说，是的，
I I'm I'm reluctantly saying, yeah,
这确实不错。
It's good.
看到这种情况，我其实不太愿意承认。
Reluctant to see it.
对。
Yeah.
别这么想。
Don't be
真的很犹豫。
so reluctant.
勉强还行。
And a half on fine.
接下来是你们的最终交易。
Up next, your final trades.
蒂姆·西格尔，请开始介绍最终交易。
Tim Siegel, kickoff final trades, please.
我觉得铜价的反应太过头了。
I think the reaction in copper is is way too high.
我觉得基本面需求是存在的。
I think there's fundamental demand.
五。
Five
三、四。
three four.
是的
Yeah.
我同意卡特的看法。
So I gotta agree with Carter.
银行股这波上涨后，可能会有人获利了结。
The run up in banks are gonna sell some upside.
摩根大通就属于这种情况。
JPMorgan calls into that.
他们将在7月14日公布财报。
They report July 14.
当然，我还是很看好吉米。
I still love Jamie, of course.
当然。
Of course.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这有点过头了。
I think it's overdone.
让我们来详细说说。
Play it through us.
你说这并不是个理想的切入点。
While you say it's not a great vehicle to do.
史蒂夫·格拉索。
Steve Grasso.
给听众解释一下，在核能领域什么是小型模块化反应堆。
Tell the audience what an SMR is in the nuclear space.
小型模块化反应堆。
Small module reactor.
没错。
That's right.
我买了一家X能源公司的股票。
I bought one x energy.
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