CNBC's "Fast Money" - Meta的Muse涟漪效应……以及Google的紧绷弹簧 2026年9月22日 封面

Meta的Muse涟漪效应……以及Google的紧绷弹簧 2026年9月22日

Meta’s Muse Ripple Effects… And A Coiled Spring In Google 9/22/26

本集简介

Meta 推出其全新 AI 智能体“Muse”,在市场中引发连锁反应。经纪商和金融股遭受冲击,新技术将如何颠覆这些领域?此外,KB Home 财报出炉,Viking Therapeutics 因新的肥胖症试验数据股价飙升,Google 的技术面呈现“紧绷的弹簧”形态;图表大师看好这家科技巨头的未来走势。 《快钱》免责声明 由 Simplecast(AdsWizz 旗下公司)托管。有关我们收集和使用个人数据用于广告的信息,请访问 pcm.adswizz.com。

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Speaker 0

从油价到房价,从政府开支到消费支出,从人工智能热潮到数据中心引发的争议,这次选举将如何影响你的钱包和投资组合?

From gas prices to housing prices, from government spending to consumer spending, from the AI boom to the data center backlash, how will this election hit your pocketbook and your portfolio?

Speaker 0

继续关注,经济选举,CNBC。

Continuing coverage, the economy election, CNBC.

Speaker 1

在纽约时代广场中心的纳斯达克市场现场直播。

Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square.

Speaker 1

这里是《快钱》节目。

This is fast money.

Speaker 1

今晚的重点内容如下。

Here's what's on top tonight.

Speaker 1

Muse给Meta的股价带来了活力,但市场上其他一些关键板块却没有那么受鼓舞。

Muse has given Meta shares a spark, but some other key sectors of the market aren't feeling so inspired.

Speaker 1

我们将分析真正的智能体AI带来的连锁反应,以及它可能如何改变我们的商业方式。

We'll break down the ripple effects of true agentic AI and what it could mean for how we do business.

Speaker 1

另外,图表大师表示,现在是买入Alphabet股票的时候了,有报道称交易即将达成。

Plus, the chart master says it is time to buy Alphabet reports of the deal.

Speaker 1

还有,Lyft和Capri的股价,Viking Therapeutics因最新试验结果大涨,以及AI的实际应用——一个人仅用几个月就完全用这项技术制作了一部新电影。

Talks, Lyft Capri shares, Viking Therapeutics soars on its latest trial results, and AI in action, a new movie created entirely with the technology by one person in just a few months.

Speaker 1

所有细节,它是如何完成的,以及这对好莱坞可能意味着什么。

All the details and how it got done and what it could mean for Hollywood.

Speaker 1

我是Melissa Lee,在纳斯达克的B演播室为你现场报道。

I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq.

Speaker 1

今晚在座的有Tim Seymour、Karen Feynerman、旧金山的Diesel Dan,还有Gayedami。

On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feynerman, Diesel Dan on San Francisco, and Gayedami.

Speaker 1

我们首先从Meta的Muse AI代理推出可能带来的一些令人意外的连锁反应开始。

We start off with some possibly surprising ripple effects from the rollout of Meta's Muse AI agent.

Speaker 1

Meta本身的股价基本保持了昨天的涨幅,收盘时下跌不到1%。

Shares of Meta itself largely holding on to yesterday's gains, closing down less than a percent.

Speaker 1

自两周前Muse推出以来,股价仍然上涨了近20%。

They're still up nearly 20% since it launched Muse two weeks ago.

Speaker 1

但看看一些大型券商股。

But take a look at some big brokerage stocks.

Speaker 1

嘉信理财跌了超过6%,这是自四月份以来最糟糕的一天。

Charles Schwab sinking more than 6%, its worst day since April.

Speaker 1

大家越来越担心,代表投资者交易的AI代理可能会颠覆传统的交易平台。

Fear is rising that agents transacting on behalf of investors could disrupt traditional trading platforms.

Speaker 1

连大型银行也受到了冲击。

Even money center banks taking a hit.

Speaker 1

摩根大通下跌超过3%,跌至两个多月来的最低点。

JPMorgan down over 3%, hitting its lowest level in more than two months.

Speaker 1

在线旅游公司也受到了影响。

Online travel companies getting hit too.

Speaker 1

Muse有可能绕过Expedia、Booking和Airbnb这些网站,这给这些股票也带来了压力。

The potential for Muse to bypass sites like Expedia, Booking, and Airbnb putting pressure on all of these stocks as well.

Speaker 1

但AI代理真的能像市场担心的那样颠覆这些行业吗?

But can agentic AI really disrupt these industries as much as markets seem to fear?

Speaker 1

这让我想起,以前软件股因为担心被颠覆而一再下跌,那些行业也因为担心被颠覆而下跌,现在我们又面临同样的情况。

And this reminds us, I think, of when software just traded lower and lower and lower again and again on this fear that it's disrupted, and yet we have we had those industries as well trade lower on fears that they would be disrupted, and here we are again.

Speaker 2

我们又回到了这里。

Here we are again.

Speaker 2

所以我觉得这次市场的反应会温和一些。对。

So I think the reaction this time will be more muted Mhmm.

Speaker 2

因为我们看到一些软件公司已经挺过来了。

Because we've seen some of those software companies that have come out of it.

Speaker 2

它们现在发展得不错。

They're doing fine.

Speaker 2

所以我觉得这里也会是这样。

So I think we'll see that here.

Speaker 2

我不介意这种局面进入银行财报季,大概三周后吧,摩根大通就要发财报了。

I don't mind this setup going into bank earnings, which are only a little, I guess, three weeks from today, I think, JPMorgan reports.

Speaker 2

我觉得,你知道,它们已经涨了很多,而且对消费者健康状况有些担忧,我们是不是要开始看到信贷问题了?

I think that, you know, they've had a huge run and, you know, some concerns about this health of the consumer and are we just gonna start to see credit issues?

Speaker 2

IPO市场是不是在放缓?

Is the IPO market slowing?

Speaker 2

我对这些都不太担心,对这件事也不太担心。

I'm I'm not so worried about all of that, and I'm not so worried about this either.

Speaker 2

我觉得有时候我们确实见过这些事情最后变成大事,但我真的不觉得这次会是其中之一。

I think that we've sometimes, we've seen these things end up being a big deal, and I really don't think this is one of them.

Speaker 2

我觉得这可能是那种他们能一起协作的情况。

I think it could be the kind of thing where they work sort of together.

Speaker 2

我的意思是,如果你去问马克·贝尼奥夫,他会怎么反应?

I mean, you were to ask Mark Benioff, what would his reaction be to this?

Speaker 2

他可能会说反应很平淡。

He would probably say very muted.

Speaker 3

我们其实知道很多,听着。

We've known a lot listen.

Speaker 3

我们每晚都在这里讨论人工智能。

We talk about AI every night here.

Speaker 3

所以这也不是什么突然冒出来的新鲜事。

So it's not like this is coming out of the sort of the woodwork.

Speaker 3

所以这项技术的颠覆性影响遍及多个行业。

So the disruptive nature of this technology is across a swath of industries.

Speaker 3

我不知道为什么过去几天,它突然波及到了银行和一些旅游类股票。

I don't know why all of sudden over the last couple days, it's made its way into banks and some of the travel stocks.

Speaker 3

我想说的是,尽管AI可能具有颠覆性,但布莱恩·莫伊尼汉那边,我记得大概是9月16号左右,有些情况。

I'll say this, as important as maybe AI is to the disruptive nature, come inside of Brian Moynihan, I think September 16 or so.

Speaker 3

我觉得这也是部分原因。

I think that's contributing to some of this as well.

Speaker 3

收益率曲线趋平可能也有影响,但布莱恩·莫伊尼汉,他在美国银行任职以来一直非常看好,最近却说了一些令人担忧的话,之后该股明显大幅下跌。

Flattening yield curve probably as well, but Brian Moynihan, who is overwhelmingly bullish since his tenure at BAC, said some pretty concerning things, and that stock is obviously sold off pretty significantly since.

Speaker 3

摩根大通有点回落,而高盛已经有一段时间在150日和200日移动平均线附近徘徊了。

JPMorgan rolling over a little bit, and Goldman Sachs has been right at the hundred and fifty day, two hundred day moving average now for a while.

Speaker 3

所以我认为银行股的抛售不仅仅是出于对AI的担忧。

So I think it's more than just the AI concerns that banks are sort of selling off on the back of.

Speaker 1

所有这些因素

All of those things

Speaker 3

都归结到很多因素上了。

rolled up to lot.

Speaker 3

所以呢。

So.

Speaker 4

嗯,如果你看看Booking和Expedia的表现,你知道,这两家公司之间有45%的差距。

Well and if you look at the performance of bookings versus Expedia, you know, you're there's a 45% spread between those two companies.

Speaker 4

我觉得这更多是Booking自己的故事,而不是整个行业的情况。

I I'd make an argument this is more of of a booking story than it is, you know, the entire space.

Speaker 4

作为从事资产管理和财富管理业务的人,你知道,就像Dan常说的,放手去干吧。

As someone that's in the asset management and wealth management business, I you know, as Dan would as diesel would say, have at it.

Speaker 4

我的意思是,你看。

I mean, you know, look.

Speaker 4

我觉得,至少对于像Schwab和Fidelity这样的平台来说,它们确实更自动化,更机械化和自主导向,我不认为这会对整个财富管理领域造成颠覆,进而影响到那些以核心业务为主的银行。

I I don't think I think for at least platforms like Schwab and Fidelity where it really is a little bit more robotic and it really is a little bit more, I would just say, mechanical and self directed, I don't think the disruption for the overall wealth management world and therefore feeding into the banks who have core business.

Speaker 4

我的意思是,说清楚点,摩根大通、高盛等公司在财富管理方面表现非常出色,考虑到市场的走势。

I mean, be clear, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and the like have had an incredible run-in wealth management when you consider the move in markets.

Speaker 4

我觉得银行股的走势,就像凯伦说的,也像盖伊说的那样。

I think the move in banks, I think it's what Karen talked about, it's what Guy talked about.

Speaker 4

过去三周我们一直从银行那边得到消息,说这个季度虽然表现惊人,但已经不如之前了。

We've been getting information from the banks for the last three weeks that it's just not the quarter that it was even though it was an incredible quarter.

Speaker 4

关键是与第二季度的相对表现,还有交易量、波动性和银行业务的交易情况。

And and it's about the relative performance to second quarter, the the trading volume and the volatility and the banking deals.

Speaker 4

你看。

Look.

Speaker 4

这些数字,华尔街从来没有过——我是说,我得核实一下这些数字。

These numbers Wall Street's never I mean, I'd need to check these numbers.

Speaker 4

我只能说,总体上可能从来没有这么赚钱过。

I would just say it's probably never been more profitable in aggregate.

Speaker 4

当然,确实如此。

Of course, is.

Speaker 4

蛋糕比以往任何时候都大,但华尔街这几年表现非凡,银行也度过了非常出色的年份。

It's it's a bigger pie than it's ever been, but Wall Street's had an incredible couple years, and the banks have had an incredible years.

Speaker 4

它们不便宜,这可能是财报季的一个好布局。

They're not cheap, and this probably is a great setup in earnings.

Speaker 1

像嘉信理财或摩根士丹利财富管理这样的公司,它们是怎么赚钱的?

How does a Schwab or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, how do they make money?

Speaker 4

靠资产。

On assets.

Speaker 1

靠资产。

On on assets.

Speaker 1

还有靠产品。

And then also on Products.

Speaker 1

产品。

Products.

Speaker 1

以及销售的产品等等。

And That are sold, etcetera.

Speaker 1

所以,如果这次情况可能不同,我们可以借用这个说法,虽然我讨厌这么说,但如果我们能说这次不同,因为你有一个可以货比三家的代理,能减少切换的摩擦,能找到收益最高或最好的产品,我们该担心吗?丹,这个代理似乎能做的比我们二月份知道的要多得多。

So to the extent that this time around could be different, if we can borrow that, because I hate that, but still, if we can say that this time, because you have an agent who can shop around, who can reduce the friction to switching, who can find the best product yielding the the highest rate or whatever it is, Should we be worried this I mean, Dan, in this agent seems to be able to do a lot more than what we knew it can do, you know, back in February, let's say.

Speaker 5

你知道,我更多把它看作是一种智能辅助,而不是那种——这就是IA嘛。

You know, I see it more as intelligent assistance rather than that's that's the IA right there.

Speaker 5

而且,你知道,蒂姆提到的关于替代技能组合以及我们在很多行业里已经习惯的那些东西,我觉得这不会很快消失。

And, you know, Tim's point about replacing, you know, sort of skill sets and and the sort of things that, you know, we've become accustomed to in a lot of different industries, I just don't think it's going away anytime soon.

Speaker 5

我是说,你关于软件的观点,我觉得现在下结论还为时过早。

Mean, your point about software, I mean, jury's still out on that.

Speaker 5

所以当我想到这些智能体能够帮助个人进行各种活动时,对我来说,我过去几周一直在用这个工具,它确实非常有用,但它并不会去做那些我认为会导致今天市场市值缩水的事情,或者短期内也不会有什么大变化,你明白吗?

And so when I think about the ability for these sorts of agents to assist a whole host of different sort of activities that individuals use, I mean, to me, I've been using this instinct for the last few weeks or so, and it really has been very useful, but it's not going out and doing the things that I think the market cap, you know, sort of destruction that we've seen today or is there anything that's coming anytime soon, you know?

Speaker 5

所以,再说一次,我一直在用Gemini,以及它在那整个产品套件里的一些生成式功能,我觉得非常有用。

So, again, I've been using Gemini and and some of the gentic sort of behavior there across a whole suite of products that I think is very useful.

Speaker 5

但我看不出它能直接进入,比如说,Expedia或者亚马逊,然后基本上做那些我已经习惯做的事情。

But I do not see the ability to kind of go into, let's say, it's Expedia or let's say it's Amazon right now and and basically do the sorts of things that I'm comfortable with doing.

Speaker 5

想想人们当初在互联网上进行商业活动花了多长时间才适应。

Think about how long it took for people to do things, you know, commerce wise on the Internet.

Speaker 5

我知道从那以后很多事情都变了,但作为办公室里那个乐观的人,我只是觉得,因为Metamucil和那个家伙,我们看到的市值缩水,你大概明白我在说什么。

Now, I know a whole heck of a lot of things have changed since then, but as the silver lining guy on the desk, I just think that the market cap destruction that we've seen because of Metamucil and guy, you'll kind of figure out you you get what I'm talking about here.

Speaker 5

我觉得会有很多人想试试这个东西。

I think that there's a a lot of folks that are gonna try this thing out.

Speaker 5

它已经登上了应用商店下载榜的榜首。

It's been at the top of the app store download.

Speaker 5

它已经超过了OpenAI。

It has displaced OpenAI.

Speaker 5

想想看。

Just think of that.

Speaker 5

你知道,OpenAI一直被认为是这个领域的领头羊。

You know, OpenAI has been, you know, thought to be the leader in this space.

Speaker 5

现在也许在个人层面上,那里的代理并没有做到我们在Muse这么短时间内看到的事情。

Now maybe on a personal level, the agents there are not doing the things that we've seen out of Muse in such a short period of time.

Speaker 5

但我还是觉得,Meta的市值上涨和今天的下跌,这么快发生,真的不太合理。

But I just think that, you know, again, the market cap gains by Meta and the losses today, I don't think make a whole heck of a lot of sense this quickly.

Speaker 3

这很有意思。

It's interesting.

Speaker 3

首先,Meta Muse,顺便说一句,我是他们产品的粉丝,Melissa Lee。

First of all, Meta Muse, notwithstanding, by the way, I'm a fan of their product, Melissa Lee.

Speaker 3

在我这个年纪,它让我保持规律。

At my age, it's something Keeps you regular.

Speaker 4

你知道吗

You know

Speaker 3

蒂姆?

what, Tim?

Speaker 3

它确实让我保持规律。

It does keep me regular.

Speaker 2

常规结算,适合常规节目。

Regular way settlement for for a regular show.

Speaker 3

这没什么不对的。

There's nothing wrong with that.

Speaker 4

好。

Good.

Speaker 4

大家都知道这一点。

People know that.

Speaker 3

涨幅确实惊人,但过去几年这只股票的波动性也同样惊人。

The move has been staggering, but the volatility in the stock has been also staggering over the last couple of years.

Speaker 3

所以如果你认为这会是一条永远向上的单行道,我觉得那是不对的。

So if you think this is gonna be a one way train to the upside in perpetuity, I think that's wrong.

Speaker 3

我觉得我们之前说得挺准的,它确实涨到了我们现在交易的这个水平。

I think we've done a decent job saying it could get to the levels that we're trading at.

Speaker 3

接下来会怎么走,我们拭目以待。

We'll see what it does from here.

Speaker 3

我觉得,考虑到这波涨势和现在的消息面,回调盘整很快就会在Meta上演。

I I think given the run and given now the news flow, a back and fill is coming to a theater near you and Meta.

Speaker 2

我再补充一点关于大型货币中心银行的情况。

Let me just add one more point about some of the big money center banks.

Speaker 2

就拿摩根大通来说吧。

Let's just take a JPMorgan for example.

Speaker 2

所以他们的资产管理规模非常庞大。

So they're over they their asset wealth management is is huge.

Speaker 2

玛丽·乌尔杜兹在负责这块。

Mary Urduz runs it.

Speaker 2

她做得非常出色。

She does a phenomenal job.

Speaker 2

不过,这大概只占他们整体业务的12%。

However, it's only about 12% of their overall business.

Speaker 2

而且,你知道,股价对此反应相当大,但如果不同时考虑AI给摩根大通这类大型货币中心银行带来的巨大效率提升,就因为这个潜力而惩罚他们,那是不公平的。

And, you know, so this has been a pretty big reaction in the stock, and it would be not really fair to to penalize them for this potential without also thinking about the incredible efficiencies to come from AI to a an institution like a JPMorgan or any of the big money center banks.

Speaker 2

所以,简单总结一下。

So just to sort of put a pin on that.

Speaker 2

我同意盖伊关于Meta的看法。

I agree with what Guy is saying on Meta.

Speaker 2

不过,我觉得问题在于,我们不知道三周后情况会怎样。

I think though, the story of we don't know where it's gonna be in three weeks.

Speaker 2

它会成为第一吗?

Was it gonna be number one?

Speaker 2

还是不会?

Is it not?

Speaker 2

它们都在变来变去。

They all sort of change around.

Speaker 2

这其实没那么重要,重要的是他们确实参与了竞争。

That doesn't much matter as much as, oh, they do have a horse in the race.

Speaker 2

他们确实有产品,但还没有真正……所以我觉得,相对于市场估值,他们的估值太低了,这个差距已经缩小了很多。

They haven't really they have products, but they haven't really and so that that I feel like too low market multiple versus the market multiple, that gap has closed a lot.

Speaker 4

关于AI助手和AI代理,要记住的一点是,如果它们代表我们做事,它们会去Booking和Expedia上做我们本来会做的事情。

One of the things to remember about AI assistants and AI agents is is that they if they're doing things on our behalf, they're going on to bookings and Expedia to do exactly what we would be doing there.

Speaker 4

所以,我不确定这一定会减少交易量,从而影响他们的收入,或者他们业务中附带的广告业务。

So, I mean, I don't know that this necessarily takes away from the transaction volume and therefore how they're getting paid or, you know, even the ad business that's attached to their business.

Speaker 4

所以,回到银行的话题,这已经超出了持有记忆体股票的范围,可能在一个标准差之外。

So I I you know, bringing it back to the banks, this has been this has been outside of owning memory stocks and probably on a standard deviation.

Speaker 4

所以从风险调整后的回报来看,过去一年半里,银行可能一直是最好的投资选择。

So risk adjusted returns, banks might have been the best place to be for the last year and a half.

Speaker 4

我的意思是,这里有很多顺风因素,我只是觉得这是一个暂停。

I mean, there's there's a lot of reasons that there were tailwinds here, and I just think this is a pause.

Speaker 4

但我认为这个暂停并不是基于背景环境的变化。

But I think this is a pause that's not based upon a a change in the backdrop.

Speaker 4

监管顺风、资本回馈顺风、投行和资本市场的顺风。

The the the regulatory tailwind, the capital give back tailwind, the investment banking capital markets tailwind.

Speaker 4

这些因素都没有改变。

I mean, these are things that aren't changing.

Speaker 4

除非出现我们现在看不到的信贷周期——这种情况总是存在的——否则我觉得你是在趁低买入。

Everything we're talking about, unless there's a credit cycle that we're not able to see now that's always there, I think you're buying weakness.

Speaker 1

与此同时,OpenAI和Anthropic的首席执行官预计本周将向联合国安理会通报情况,因为对人工智能安全和监管的担忧已达到顶点。

Meantime, the CEOs of OpenAI and Anthropic is expected to brief the UN Security Council this week as concerns over AI safety and regulation reach a boiling point.

Speaker 1

凯特·鲁尼的

Kate Rooney's

Speaker 6

这里有详细情况。

got the details here.

Speaker 6

凯特。

Kate.

Speaker 6

嘿,梅丽莎。

Hey, Melissa.

Speaker 6

所以这场AI安全辩论本周将登上全球舞台。

So this AI safety debate right now is going to a global stage this week.

Speaker 6

OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥特曼和Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫德预计将在周三向联合国安理会做简报。

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amadeh are expected to brief the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday.

Speaker 6

这是在纽约举行的联合国大会期间。

This is during the UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

Speaker 6

据我们了解,Hugging Face的首席执行官也会到场。

The Hugging Face CEO will also be there from what we're hearing.

Speaker 6

这确实发生在一个重要时刻,目前关于AI发展速度是否过快、行业能否跟上并确保这些系统安全的辩论正在激烈进行。

It does come at an important time right now with this ongoing debate about whether the pace of AI development is going too fast for the industry's ability to keep up and keep these systems safe.

Speaker 6

阿马德在这件事上引起了很大的关注。

Amadeh got a lot of attention around this.

Speaker 6

他呼吁放慢最强大AI模型的开发速度。

He called for pacing the development of the most powerful AI models.

Speaker 6

奥特曼对此表示赞同,因为那是上周末的事了,但今天两家AI实验室都发布了新模型。

Altman endorsed that because this was last weekend now, but both AI labs just today released new models.

Speaker 6

所以放慢速度显然不等于暂停。

So pacing clearly does not mean pausing.

Speaker 6

我们今天早些时候确实看到了OpenAI和Anthropic的新发布。

We did see those new releases from OpenAI and Anthropic earlier today.

Speaker 6

它们同时注重成本效益和速度。

They were focused on cost efficiency and speed at the same time.

Speaker 6

OpenAI这周还呼吁美国主导这项国际努力,试图为前沿AI实验室建立共同的技术标准,包括一些关于模型安全、事件报告以及这些系统可能自我改进的标准。

OpenAI this week did also call for The US to lead this international effort and try to establish common technical standards for Frontier AI Labs, including some standards around things like model safety, incident reporting, and then the possibility of these systems improving themselves.

Speaker 6

这被称为递归自我改进。

That's called recursive self improvement.

Speaker 6

这也成了这些AI实验室面临的一个政治问题,他们确实得权衡好这件事。

It is becoming a political issue as well for these AI labs that really have to juggle this.

Speaker 6

特朗普政府已经明确表态,反对放缓AI发展的想法,认为美国任何暂停都可能让中国迎头赶上,还把安全担忧称为骗局。

The Trump administration has made its stance very clear pushing back on the idea of slowing down AI development, arguing here that any US pause can allow China to pull ahead and called safety fears a hoax.

Speaker 6

至少总统是这么说的。

At least that's what the president said.

Speaker 6

他还说司法部和其他执法机构也可以作为最后一道防线。

Also said the DOJ and other law enforcement agencies could also be a backstop mill.

Speaker 6

哦。

Oh.

Speaker 6

丹有个问题。

Dan's got a question.

Speaker 5

嗨。

Hi.

Speaker 5

嗨,凯蒂。

Hi, Katie.

Speaker 1

就在丹旁边。

Right next to Dan.

Speaker 1

你看那个。

Look at that.

Speaker 4

真奇怪。

That's weird.

Speaker 4

你和我

You and I

Speaker 5

过去一个小时一直在聊各种事情,都跟你刚才报道的内容有关。

have spent the last hour talking about a whole host of things as it relates to what you're just reporting on.

Speaker 5

那你觉得呢?

And, you know, what do you think?

Speaker 5

我觉得这种监管俘获的想法有点愤世嫉俗。

And I think it's a bit of a cynical take that this whole idea of regulatory capture.

Speaker 5

所以你想,像Anthropic在企业和消费领域领先,OpenAI也在努力推进,他们真的在试图反击一些初创公司,对吧。

So if you think of what the lead and enterprise that, you know, we see from Anthropic or in consumer and the push that OpenAI are trying to make and the idea that they're really trying to push back, you know, some of these startups, some of these, you know that's right.

Speaker 1

你觉得

What do

Speaker 5

你怎么看?

what do you make of that?

Speaker 5

比如,大家怎么说?

Like, what's the word on that?

Speaker 6

不。

No.

Speaker 6

丹,你说得对。

It's a great point, Dan.

Speaker 6

我觉得这确实是大家会讨论的事情。

And I think it is actually something that people talk about.

Speaker 6

所以这可能是比较悲观的观点,但也是主流观点。

So it would be probably the more cynical view on this, but it is a mainstream view.

Speaker 6

这不是少数人的看法,十个人里就有一个这么说。

It's not, you know, a fringe one in 10 people say this.

Speaker 6

这是真正合法的公司说的,包括我们上周采访过的Cohere的CEO。

It's real legitimate companies say this, including the CEO of cohere, we who we talked to the other week on this.

Speaker 6

他是加拿大CEO,说,是的,我同意一些安全问题,他们确实有道理。

He's a Canadian CEO and said, well, yes, I agree with some of the safety issues and says they do they're onto something with that.

Speaker 6

你知道,我们需要某种国际标准。

You know, we need some sort of international standards.

Speaker 6

他说,我不希望美国的AI实验室来控制这一切并制定规则。

He's saying, I don't want it to be the AI labs out of The US being the ones controlling this and making the rules.

Speaker 6

我认为这就是全球舞台上产生摩擦的地方。

I think that is where you do have this friction on a global stage.

Speaker 6

不仅仅是中美之间的对立。

It's not only China versus The US.

Speaker 6

而是美国实验室说我们要制定这些安全标准。

It is the American lab saying we wanna put out these safety standards.

Speaker 6

这几乎是来自较小公司的不信任,他们说即使不一定是监管俘获——这是主要的批评——也有真正的反对声音,说我们需要更多声音参与进来。

It's almost a lack of trust from the smaller companies saying even if it's not necessarily regulatory capture, which has been the big criticism, there is a real pushback saying we need more voices involved here.

Speaker 6

但这也说明了让AI公司达成一致的难度,尤其是中国的AI公司。

But it also does speak to just the difficulty of getting not only the AI companies on the same page, the AI companies in China on the same page.

Speaker 6

我还听说Deep Seek也会派代表参加。

I'm also told that Deep Seek is gonna have a representative there too.

Speaker 6

所以听听Sam Altman和Deep Seek代表之间的言论会很有意思。

So that'll be interesting to hear some of the rhetoric between, you know, Sam Altman and whoever's representing the companies from Deep Seek.

Speaker 6

欢迎Dan。

Good to have Dan.

Speaker 1

不。

No.

Speaker 1

他在这儿。

Guy's here.

Speaker 3

就在那儿。

Right there.

Speaker 3

谢谢Mel。

Thanks to Mel.

Speaker 4

可能是AI。

Could be AI.

Speaker 4

可能是AI。

Could be AI

Speaker 2

那个人。

guy.

Speaker 2

幻觉。

Hallucination.

Speaker 6

搞AI的。

AI guy.

Speaker 6

好主意。

That's a good idea.

Speaker 1

有意思的是,这一切发生的那天,正好是阿里巴巴发布最新最强芯片的日子,这款芯片的性能是上一代的三倍。

What's interesting is that this comes on a day this all of this comes on a day when when BABA has unveiled its newest, most powerful chip that has three times the the power as its previous, iteration of chip.

Speaker 1

所以就在眼前。

So it's right there.

Speaker 1

所以这确实凸显了中美之间的竞争关系,以及他们能追上我们多少。

So it really underscores the sort of notion of competition between The US and China and how much they can catch up with us.

Speaker 4

而且关于阿里巴巴及其模型采用、开源和低成本的消息,肯定与苹果有关,你知道,他们是客户。

And and the news flow around BABA and adoption of of their models and their open source and and a lower cost is certainly with Apple where they've they've you know, they're a customer.

Speaker 4

他们是用户。

They're a user.

Speaker 4

这是界面的一部分。

They're it's part of the interface.

Speaker 4

所以,你知道,阿里巴巴是个让人头疼的股票,因为基本面告诉你该买。

So, you know, Alibaba is a frustrating name to own because the fundamentals say own it.

Speaker 4

而且基本面还包括中国政府与阿里巴巴管理层之间的历史矛盾,我认为这已经解决了。

And the fundamentals that are also include the the history of the Chinese government and Alibaba management being at odds is also, I think, been solved.

Speaker 4

所以我认为这是市场动态。

So I think this is a market dynamic.

Speaker 4

我觉得很多投资者都在谈论怀疑和信任。

I think a lot of you investors talk about skeptical and and trust.

Speaker 4

我觉得关于中国科技有很多疑问,不过这也挺正常的。

I think there's a lot of question about China tech, and I think, well, that's fair enough.

Speaker 4

其中一些疑问来自这边,比如你明天醒来可能会看到某种针对中国ADR的禁令,我们确实面临过这种威胁。

Some of that comes from this side where you could wake up tomorrow and there could be some kind of a ban on Chinese ADRs or so we have had that threat.

Speaker 4

但阿里巴巴的市盈率很低,而且我认为它和世界上任何科技公司一样有优势。

But Alibaba is very cheap on multiple, and I think is well positioned as any tech company in the world.

Speaker 1

为了了解更多市场未来走势,我们现在请到了布雷特·尤因。

For more on what is next for the markets, we are joined now by Brett Ewing.

Speaker 1

他是第一富兰克林金融服务公司的首席市场策略师。

He's a chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services.

Speaker 1

布雷特,很高兴你能来参加我们的节目。

Brett, great to have you have you with us.

Speaker 1

首先想听听你对今天市场情况的看法,就是关于Muse AI代理或AI代理仍然有能力颠覆行业的观点。

Want to get your take first on on what happened today, and that's the notion that, the Muse AI agent or an AI agent still has the power to disrupt industries.

Speaker 1

你觉得这种说法有道理吗?

Do you find that there is some validity to that?

Speaker 1

可能钟摆摆得太远了,但我们是不是还应该考虑一个可能被颠覆的行业呢?

It may be that the pendulum has swung too far, but should we think about an industry still that could be disrupted?

Speaker 7

谢谢你邀请我,梅丽莎。

I mean, thank you for having me on Melissa.

Speaker 7

我很感激。

I appreciate it.

Speaker 7

你看。

Look.

Speaker 7

我觉得每当有关于AI如何运作及其能力的新视角出现时,短期内市场总会有一些反应。

I think that anytime new a a new look at at how AI is gonna work and its capabilities comes out, you're gonna have some short term reaction in that.

Speaker 7

我觉得Meta的走势相当强劲。

I think the move in Meta was pretty powerful.

Speaker 7

毫无疑问。

No doubt about it.

Speaker 7

而且,你知道,看起来就像丹之前说的,最近下载量第一,但我觉得每次出现这种情况,都会是一个延续。

And, you know, it's it's it looks like it's gonna be like I think Dan was saying earlier, number one download here recently, but it looks like anytime that comes out, I think that that is gonna be a continuation.

Speaker 7

这种情况我们会反复看到。

We're gonna see this over and over.

Speaker 7

未来几年,这种模式还会不断重演。

This record's gonna play as we move foot through the next few years.

Speaker 7

毫无疑问。

No doubt.

Speaker 1

同时,你觉得我们看到的这波涨势,特别是由Meta带动的,能一直持续到选举吗?

At the same time, you think that what we saw in terms of the rally that got sparked, specifically by Meta, that we can continue those gains through the election.

Speaker 1

所以,我的意思是,听起来我们好像要创新高了。

So we will I mean, that sounds to me like we're gonna hit new new highs here.

Speaker 7

听着,我们年初的目标是标普500指数到8000点。

Look, our our call beginning of the year was 8,000 on the S and P.

Speaker 7

信不信由你,我们在八月份把目标上调到了年底8200点,而且我相信有办法达到这个目标。

We raised our target, believe it or not, in August to 8,200 by year end, and I believe where there's a path to get there.

Speaker 7

而这个办法需要几个不同的条件都顺利实现。

And that path is gonna revolve around a few different things that need to work out.

Speaker 7

显然,海外地缘政治问题,还有让石油和天然气恢复流通。

Obviously, overseas geopolitical stuff and get the straight and oil flowing.

Speaker 7

另一个因素是利率。

So the other component is rates.

Speaker 7

而且,你知道,在这次美联储会议之前,我们看到德意志银行的债券持仓指标处于极端水平。

And, you know, going into this Fed meeting, we saw Deutsche Bank bond positioning measurement as one of the most extreme levels.

Speaker 7

这种情况在近几年只出现过几次,追溯到2018年和2022年,也就是2018年底和2022年。

It's only happened a few other times in recent years dating back to 2018 and 2022, late twenty eighteen and '22.

Speaker 7

当这个指标达到这个水平,也就是第五百分位时,接下来三到五个月,十年期国债收益率通常会回落。

Whereas when it hit this level, the fifth percentile, what you had the preceding following three to five months is basically a fade in the ten year treasury.

Speaker 7

我目前就持这种观点。

And that's the camp that I sit in right here.

Speaker 7

我相信这个趋势会持续下去。

I believe that trend is gonna be intact.

Speaker 7

十年期国债收益率已经见顶了。

We've peaked out on the 10.

Speaker 4

Brett、Tim,谢谢你们来参加我们的节目。

Brett, Tim, thanks for joining us.

Speaker 4

那你帮我们理解一下,也许你刚才已经说过了,但请进一步展开,你知道,在美联储会议之后。

So help us understand what maybe you just articulated this, but go further, you know, post fed.

Speaker 4

对你来说,从现在到年底,这是不是个改变游戏规则的事情?

Was that a game changer for you between now and year end?

Speaker 7

我是说,你看。

I mean, look.

Speaker 7

我其实之前是那种认为他们现在可以按兵不动的阵营。

I'm I I was kind of in the camp where they could just kinda stay where they were at this moment.

Speaker 7

我知道通胀的问题,但我不认为他们能控制能源价格。

I know I know the inflation stuff, but I I don't believe they control energy prices.

Speaker 7

我不认为他们能控制人工智能的建设。

I don't believe they control AI build out.

Speaker 7

那是我相信的地方。

That's where I believe.

Speaker 7

我觉得美联储是有可能找到借口的,如果伊朗那边的战争能很快降级,再加上中期选举前后这段时间。

I think there is a path that the Fed could have cover if this war in Iran deescalates quickly here plus or minus the midterms.

Speaker 7

而且我觉得能源价格会大幅下跌。

And energy prices, I think, would drop dramatically.

Speaker 7

我觉得这能给他们一些缓冲的余地。

I think it could buy them some cover.

Speaker 7

你知道,历史上从来没有过新任美联储主席上任后只加息一次就收手的情况。

You know, it's never happened in history where a new a a Fed chair comes in and does one hike, and and they're done.

Speaker 7

所以这种可能性很低,但也不是完全没有机会。

So the, you know, the probability of that's very low, but there could be a chance of that.

Speaker 7

我知道市场预期还会再加一次息。

I know the market's pricing one more hike.

Speaker 3

那么,Brent,既然你提到了中期选举,我们马上就会迎来。

So, Brent, since you brought up the midterms, we're gonna wake up.

Speaker 3

它们就要到了。

They're gonna be here.

Speaker 3

VIX指数在15,是不是没有考虑到中期选举可能发生的情况?

Is a 15 VIX not taking into consideration what could happen in the midterms?

Speaker 7

我觉得考虑到最近新闻里发生的一切,VIX指数算是相当平静的了。

I I the VIX is pretty calm considering everything that's been happening here recently in the news.

Speaker 7

现在有鹰派的美联储。

So you've got a hawkish Fed.

Speaker 7

还有利率见顶,能源危机也在持续。

You've got, you know, peak interest rates, energy energy crisis going on.

Speaker 7

伊朗战争的地缘政治风险还在,而VIX指数却徘徊在15左右。

Iran war still geopolitical, and the VIX is sitting around 15.

Speaker 7

说实话,这让我挺惊讶的,但回答你的问题,我认为中期选举前后确实如此。

I mean, it's pretty surprising to me, but I do believe around midterms to answer your question.

Speaker 7

我觉得市场其实对选举结果并不太担心。

I believe the markets really not that concerned either way.

Speaker 7

如果你回顾自1950年以来的19次中期选举,从11月到次年4月,这六个月期间市场有19次都是上涨的,19次全部上涨。

I think if you look back at the last 19 mid terms dating back to 1950, and you look from November to April, the market has been positive 19 out of 19 times during that six month period.

Speaker 7

而且中位数回报率大约是15%。

And the the median return was around 15%.

Speaker 7

我们认为这基本上就是我们对未来的预期。

And we believe that that's gonna be kind of what we're expecting as we move forward.

Speaker 1

那会非常可观。

That'd be huge.

Speaker 1

Brett,谢谢你。

Brett, thank you.

Speaker 1

非常感谢。

Appreciate

Speaker 7

不客气。

it.

Speaker 7

谢谢,谢谢。

Thank thank you.

Speaker 1

你觉得我们不会看到更多波动吗?

You think that we're not gonna see more volatility?

Speaker 1

我的意思是,他没说不会有更多波动,但我的意思是,通过中期选举,市场会走高。

I mean, he didn't say no more volatility, but I mean, a path higher through the midterms.

Speaker 4

嗯,中期选举显然可能会有对市场不利的结果。

Well, midterms are are clearly there could be outcomes that are market negative.

Speaker 4

当我们谈论确定性与不确定性时,你知道,我认为从中期选举中走出来实际上会是积极的。

And as we talk about the the certainty versus lack thereof, then, you know, that's kind of where I I think coming out of that will actually be somewhat positive.

Speaker 4

我认为股市在三个月内几乎没什么动静,直到现在纳斯达克突然创下历史新高。

I I I think equities have done almost nothing for three months until now suddenly the Nasdaq's at all time highs.

Speaker 4

我认为如果油价能得到控制,市场在很大程度上已经为年底的反弹做好了准备,这意味着你无法解决。

I think markets are largely set up for a year end rally if we can get oil prices under control, and and that that means you don't solve.

Speaker 4

我不认为你能在接下来的三个月里解决伊朗问题,但我认为如果你能控制住油价,股市就会反弹。

I don't think you solve Iran in the next three months, but I think if you keep oil contained, equity markets will rally.

Speaker 1

尽管今天有积极的进展,在联合国大会期间与伊朗进行了三个小时的会晤。

Although there are positive steps today, three hour meeting with Iran on the sidelines of the UN general meeting.

Speaker 3

大宗商品波动率、货币债券波动率、个股波动率,而VIX指数却没有波动,这是怎么回事?

What's a commodity volatility, currency bond volatility, single stock volatility, no volatility in the VIX.

Speaker 3

所以这一直是最近一段时间的一个主题。

So that's been, the way, that's been a theme now for a while.

Speaker 3

如果你告诉我所有那些不会发生的事情,我会说VIX至少是23,但显然现在不是。

If you told me all the things that wouldn't happen, I'd say the VIX is at least 23 and clearly we're not.

Speaker 3

但我确实认为在接下来的几周内,这种情况会发生。

But I do think it's going to happen at some point over the next few weeks.

Speaker 1

接下来,我们关注KB Home的股价在财报发布后的表现。

Coming up, are watching shares of KB Home after earnings.

Speaker 1

接下来是季度数据的详细情况,还有生物科技领域的重量级公司Viking Therapeutics,其股价因新的减肥数据而大涨,以及竞争对手诺和诺德可能通过并购来重振增长。

The details from the numbers in the quarter next, plus a heavyweight in biotech shares of Viking Therapeutics surging on new weight loss data and how rival Novo could be leaning into some M and A to help revive growth.

Speaker 1

别走开。

Don't go anywhere.

Speaker 1

《快钱》马上回来。

Fast money's back in two.

Speaker 0

从油价到房价,从政府支出到消费者支出,从AI热潮到数据中心的反感,这次选举将如何影响你的钱包和投资组合?

From gas prices to housing prices, from government spending to consumer spending, from the AI boom to the data center backlash, how will this election hit your pocketbook and your portfolio?

Speaker 0

继续报道经济与选举,这里是CNBC。

Continuing coverage, the economy election, CNBC.

Speaker 1

欢迎回到《快钱》节目。

Welcome back to fast money.

Speaker 1

我们有一条关于KB Home的财报快讯。

We've got an earnings alert on KB Home.

Speaker 1

尽管这家住宅建筑商的营收和利润都超出了预期,但股价却大幅回落。

Shares are sharply reversing into despite the homebuilder beating top and bottom line estimates.

Speaker 1

电话会议在整点开始时已经开始了。

The conference call started at the top of the hour.

Speaker 1

戴安娜·奥利克。

Diana Olick.

Speaker 1

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 1

在演播室稍等。

Hold here on set.

Speaker 6

多久了?

How long?

Speaker 1

第一次。

First time.

Speaker 3

多久

How long

Speaker 6

我们做

have we been

Speaker 3

这个节目多久了?

doing this show?

Speaker 5

惊掉下巴。

Jaw drop.

Speaker 1

二十年了,从一月份开始。

Twenty years of January.

Speaker 3

这真是头一回。

This is this is a first.

Speaker 3

来吧。

Come on.

Speaker 6

太棒了。

It's amazing.

Speaker 4

等等。

Hold on.

Speaker 4

我能,我能走

Can can I go

Speaker 2

另一边吗?

the other way?

Speaker 2

我就想,你去哪儿了?

I'm just like, where have been?

Speaker 2

你去哪儿了?

Where have you been?

Speaker 4

我是说,你怎么这么久才来?

I mean, what took you so long?

Speaker 8

我是说,也许我被邀请了。

I mean, I'm invited, maybe.

Speaker 8

哦。

Oh.

Speaker 8

我上过这个节目。

I've been on the show.

Speaker 8

有意思。

Interesting.

Speaker 1

长期有效的邀请。

Standing invitation.

Speaker 1

总之,KB Home。

Anyway, KB Home.

Speaker 8

我想聊聊KB Home。

I wanna talk about KB Home.

Speaker 8

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 8

现在股价下跌的原因是,在电话会议上,大家讨论了很多关于利润率的问题,他们下调了利润率指引,因为市场实在太艰难了。

And the reason the shares are falling now is because on the conference call, there was a bunch of talk about margins, which they lowered their guidance on margins because it's such a rough market.

Speaker 8

但让我说说重点。

But let me get to the important stuff.

Speaker 8

这和上周Lennar的情况正好相反,Lennar各项指标都不达标。

It was the opposite of what we saw with Lennar last week, which missed across the board.

Speaker 8

KB在所有指标上都表现不错,最重要的是本季度的毛利率,交付量也刚好超出预期四套房子。

KB beat on all the metrics, most importantly on gross margins for this quarter and just eked out a win on delivery with four more homes than were expected.

Speaker 8

所以,是的,我们非常关注利润率,因为现在房贷利率这么高,卖房越来越难了。

So, yay, we're focused a lot on the margins because it's harder and harder to make a sale given mortgage rates today.

Speaker 8

现在的利率比年初高多了,当然,这也是为什么KB和大多数房地产股今年至今都在下跌。

They are much higher than what we started the year at, and, of course, that's why KB and most of the homebuilder stocks are down year to date.

Speaker 8

建筑商正在积极降低利率和房价。

Builders are aggressively buying down rates and lowering prices.

Speaker 8

而KB唯一没达标的就是平均房价。

That's the one that KB actually missed on, the average price.

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Speaker 8

结果比预期低了700美元,所以,又是降价。

It came in $700 lower than expected, so, again, lowering.

Speaker 8

在公告中,KB的董事长杰夫·梅茨格说,我们所在的房地产市场依然充满挑战,自6月财报以来,市场状况更加疲软。

In the release, KB's chairman Jeff Metzger said we are operating in a housing market that continues to be challenging with conditions weaker since our June earnings.

Speaker 8

他提到了更高的房贷利率、地缘政治不确定性,以及更广泛的经济逆风,这些我们反复听到。

He cited higher mortgage rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and broader economic headwinds, which we hear over and over.

Speaker 8

第四季度的利润率指引,再次低于预期。

Guidance on q four margins, again, it's, less than expected.

Speaker 8

真有意思。

So interesting.

Speaker 8

KB的首席执行官罗伯特·麦吉夫尼在公告中表示,他们已经实现了回归以按订单建造为主的业务模式的目标,这很有意思,各位,因为Lennar非常注重投机性建房。

KB CEO Robert McGivney said in the release that they have achieved their goal of returning to a predominantly build to order business, and that's interesting, guys, because Lennar is very into spec.

Speaker 8

你采访过董事长斯图尔特·米勒,他认为即使现在看不到需求,也必须继续建房,因为不想在需求回来时突然没有房子可卖,但KB不是这种情况。

You talked to chairman Stuart Miller, and he believes you have to keep building even if you don't see the demand now because you don't wanna be caught without any homes suddenly when the demand comes back, not the case with KB.

Speaker 8

理论上,按订单建造能帮助他们更好地应对较高的成本吗?

In theory, does build to order help them withstand sort of the higher costs?

Speaker 8

比如说,他们能不能把成本转嫁出去?

Like, or can they pass

Speaker 1

因为他们按订单建房,是不是能更好地转嫁成本?

on costs better because they're building to order?

Speaker 8

嗯,所以他们可以和买家商量,说,好的。

Well, so they can work with the buyer and say, okay.

Speaker 8

买家买不起这个,也买不起那个。

The buyer can't afford this, can't afford that.

Speaker 8

也许我们可以让他们选这个或那个。

Maybe we can get them in on this and that.

Speaker 8

也许我们可以给他们一些优惠,比如你想要花岗岩台面,或者想要其他额外的东西。

Maybe we can give them some concessions if you want the granite or you want the extra something or other.

Speaker 8

我也不确定。

I don't know.

Speaker 8

但肯定不会是再加一个卧室。

It's not gonna be another bedroom.

Speaker 8

但在按订单建造的情况下,他们确实可以和买家好好沟通,帮助他们买得起他们需要的东西。

But in the build to order, they can really work with buyers to help them be able to afford what they need.

Speaker 2

在不按订单建造的情况下,价格是什么时候确定的?

In the not build to order, when is the price determined?

Speaker 2

他们只在最后才确定吗?

They only at the very end?

Speaker 8

在销售的时候。

At the sale.

Speaker 8

我的意思是,如果你在做投机房,你只是建,对吧。

I mean, so if you're doing spec homes and you're just building Right.

Speaker 8

你知道,你想要什么,然后它就在积压订单里,然后就要看你在收房的时候,他们会做什么样的按揭利率买断,做什么样的价格让步,会送什么,你知道,所有这些。

Know, you want, and then it's in the backlog, and then it's just gonna be determined on when you close on that home, what kind of mortgage rate buy down they're gonna do, what kind of price concession they're gonna do, what they're gonna throw in, you know, all of that.

Speaker 3

所以,戴安娜,KB Home发现自己处于中间位置,一边是Toll Brothers,另一边是其他公司。

So, Diana, KB Home finds itself in the middle sort of faulty on one side, Toll Brothers on the other side.

Speaker 3

现在你从这三家公司那里听到类似的情况。

There's you're hearing similar things now from all three.

Speaker 3

而且我们在EC有顶尖的团队,我们在EC有一支非常厉害的团队。

And if our crack staff in EC, we have a crack staff in EC.

Speaker 3

这只股票KBH现在跌了。

This stock KBH is down.

Speaker 3

自从两年前创下历史新高以来,它几乎被腰斩了。

It's almost been cut in half since its all time high two years ago.

Speaker 3

所以你现在开始看到这些建筑商之间的共同点了。

So you're starting to see a theme here with these homebuilders.

Speaker 8

其实,Toll的表现要好一些。

Mean, toll is doing better.

Speaker 8

你看,在高端市场,他们不依赖房贷。

Look, on the high end of the market, they are not mortgage dependent.

Speaker 8

即使房贷利率有些波动,他们也能应对。

And even if the mortgage rates do fluctuate a little bit, they can handle that.

Speaker 8

在Toll那边,他们有更强的购买力。

They have more purchasing power on toll.

Speaker 8

所以我把这个完全归为另一类。

And so that, I put in a completely different category.

Speaker 8

不过上周我参加了Ivy Zelman的开发商会议,采访了Pulte的Ryan Marshall,他说的话几乎一模一样。

But I was at, Ivy Zelman's builder conference last week, and, I interviewed Ryan Marshall from Pulte, and it's almost the same words out of his mouth.

Speaker 8

地缘政治不确定性、房贷利率上升、消费者信心,全都提到了。

Geopolitical uncertainty, higher mortgage rates, consumer confidence, all of it.

Speaker 8

你反复听到的都是同样的内容。

You just hear the same thing over and over.

Speaker 4

Diana,KB好像在过去几年里好几次没达到营收预期,我知道我们刚聊过这个行业的波动性。

Diana, KB seems to have missed revenue expect estimates, you know, a few times over the last couple years, and I realized we just talked about the volatility in the space.

Speaker 4

但你觉得这会影响投资者对整个行业的信心吗?

But do you think that's impacting investors' confidence on investing overall?

Speaker 4

换句话说,那些公司业绩完全不及预期的行业,会被打入冷宫。

In other words, sectors where companies completely miss, they get put in the penalty box.

Speaker 4

而且,我知道现在宏观环境确实艰难,但Target和Walmart不也一样吗?

And and, you know, I realize this is tough macro, but, you know, so so is it for Target and Walmart.

Speaker 8

但是你看。

But and look.

Speaker 8

我一直在听你们说。

I listen to you guys.

Speaker 8

我可能不在交易台上,但我一直在听交易台的意见。

I may not be on the desk, but I'm listening to the desk.

Speaker 8

每次我做直播的时候,都听到你们所有人说,我不喜欢建筑商。

And every time I do a live shot, I hear all of you guys say, I don't like the builders.

Speaker 8

你知道吗?

You know?

Speaker 4

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

Speaker 4

这跟

I It's got nothing to do with

Speaker 3

我们对你的看法无关,显然。

how we feel about you, obviously.

Speaker 8

那些不是我的楼。

They're not my buildings.

Speaker 8

我不认识那些楼。

I don't know the buildings.

Speaker 8

我不是针对个人。

I'm not doing it personally.

Speaker 8

我是说,那可能是我的地盘,也是我谋生的方式。

I mean, it may be my space and how I make a living.

Speaker 2

但自从上次经济衰退以来,它们的变化确实非常大。

But it is extraordinary how much they've changed since the last downturn.

Speaker 2

它们没有过度扩张。

They're not over their skis.

Speaker 2

它们没有过度杠杆化。

They're not over levered.

Speaker 8

它们没有吸取教训。

They don't have their lesson.

Speaker 2

不过,是的。

And yet Yeah.

Speaker 1

他们正在受到惩罚。

They are being penalized.

Speaker 2

对。

Yes.

Speaker 2

不过,你知道,如果你在2008年有一个40 8的指标,那很可能是48,不是的。

Although, you know, if you had a 40 8 handle in in 2008, it was 48 likely, not yeah.

Speaker 2

我是说,对吧。

I mean, right.

Speaker 8

他们还在卖房子。

This is They're still selling homes.

Speaker 8

你看。

Look.

Speaker 8

现在建筑商的信心指数在三十多,而在我经历的大衰退、崩盘和止赎危机期间,也是这个水平。

Builder sentiment is in the thirties right now back during the great recession and the crash and the foreclosure crisis when I was around.

Speaker 8

当时一度跌到了七。

It was at seven at one point.

Speaker 8

哇。

Wow.

Speaker 8

所以对比一下。

So compare that.

Speaker 3

这还有

It's a

Speaker 4

很长的路要走。

long way to go.

Speaker 4

开玩笑的。

Kidding.

Speaker 4

开玩笑的。

Kidding.

Speaker 4

你看,抱歉,戴安娜。

See the I'm sorry, Diana.

Speaker 4

对不起。

I'm sorry.

Speaker 2

这就对了。

There you go.

Speaker 1

戴安娜,随时欢迎你再来。

Diana, standing invitation to come back.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 1

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 1

很高兴来到这里。

Great to be here.

Speaker 1

接下来还会有更多快速赚钱的机会。

There's a lot more fast money to come.

Speaker 1

下面看看接下来有什么内容。

Here's what's coming up next.

Speaker 0

Viking Therapeutics 的股价出现了大幅上涨。

A plus sized move in Viking Therapeutics.

Speaker 0

新的减肥数据推动股价上涨。

New weight loss data helping the stock gain value.

Speaker 0

我们来聊聊这次上涨背后的细节,以及随着竞争加剧,诺和诺德CEO对并购机会的看法。

The details behind that move and what the CEO of Novo had to say about M and A opportunity as competition heats up.

Speaker 0

另外,还有Alphabet的技术面分析,图表大师对谷歌母公司走势的预测,以及这家科技巨头为何可能准备起飞。

Plus, the ABCs of Alphabet's technicals, what the chart master sees in store for Google's parent, and why the tech giant could be ready for takeoff.

Speaker 0

你现在收看的是《快钱》节目,我们在时代广场的纳斯达克现场直播。

You're watching fast money live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square.

Speaker 0

广告之后马上回来。

We're back right after this.

Speaker 0

从油价到房价,从政府支出到消费支出,从

From gas prices to housing prices, from government spending to consumer spending, from

Speaker 9

我们有策略,也有一定的科学能力。

We have a strategy and we have some scientific capabilities.

Speaker 9

让我们看看差距在哪里,然后出去看看谁已经生产出或者即将推出比我们自己能做的更好的药物。

Let's see where the gaps are and let's go out and see who has produced or is about to introduce better drugs than we are able to do on our own.

Speaker 9

当并购能够填补这个差距时,我们其实非常感兴趣。

And when the gap can be filled with that M and A, we are actually quite interested about it.

Speaker 1

那是诺和诺德CEO迈克·杜德斯塔在接受CNBC欧洲采访时谈到可能寻求收购以促进增长。

That was Novo CEO Mike Dudstar speaking with CNBC Europe about potentially looking at for acquisitions for growth.

Speaker 1

诺和诺德在美国上市的股票今天未能反弹,昨天下跌了近8%。

US traded shares of Novo unable to rebound after yesterday's nearly 8% loss.

Speaker 1

与此同时,Viking Therapeutics今天领涨,涨幅达35%,是自2024年2月以来表现最好的一天。

Meantime, Viking Therapeutics topping the tape and serving 35% today, its best day since February 2024.

Speaker 1

这家生物技术公司表示,使用其注射减肥药的患者在21周后体重减轻了16%到19%,而且之后结果没有趋于平稳。

The biotech saying patients using its injectable weight loss drug lost between 1619% of their body weight after twenty one weeks, and that results did not plateau after that.

Speaker 1

这项试验中还有一些额外数据表明,即使他们停药,大部分体重减轻也得以维持。

There's also some additional data in this trial which indicated that even when they stopped, a lot of the weight loss was maintained.

Speaker 1

我想停药后一个月,维持了97%的减重效果,很多在90%左右的减重效果也得以保持。

I think it was 97% when they stopped and only took it for, you know, a month out, a lot in the 90% range was also maintained, the weight loss.

Speaker 1

所以,能够把用药间隔拉长,不用一直打针,不用每天或每周都用,这对很多消费者来说太重要了。

So the ability to sort of stretch that out and not be on that drug consistently, you know, daily or weekly, that's huge for a lot of consumers.

Speaker 2

那确实太重要了。

That's huge.

Speaker 2

而且,对于那些商业模式建立在持续用药前提上的公司来说,这可能会是个麻烦。

Also, that would be potentially troubling for the ones that have a model that's sort of based on the premise of

Speaker 1

维持。

Maintain.

Speaker 1

维持。

Maintaining.

Speaker 1

维持。

Maintaining.

Speaker 1

对。

Yes.

Speaker 2

这确实非常关键。

That is very significant.

Speaker 2

那你觉得你对诺和诺德这件事了解得最多吗?

So do you think that you you know the most about this the Novo thing?

Speaker 2

这是不是正好处在那个风口浪尖上?

Is this right in the crosshairs of where

Speaker 1

他们想待的地方?

they would be?

Speaker 1

你知道,就是他们想达到的那个位置?

You know, where they want to be?

Speaker 1

嗯,那也是。

Well, that too.

Speaker 2

他们想待在任何地方,就是不想待在现在这个地方,尽管他们有一个非常有价值的品牌。

Well, they wanna be anywhere but where they are right now despite having a franchise that is really valuable.

Speaker 1

我觉得,用药频率更低这个概念,我跟诺和诺德几年前聊过,他们说,想象一下,这有点像疫苗,就像减肥疫苗一样。

I think that the notion of a drug that you take with less frequency I mean, when I spoke to Nova a couple years ago, they said, what if imagine taking a it's almost like a vaccine, like a weight loss vaccine.

Speaker 1

一年打一次。

You take it once a year.

Speaker 1

想象一下,如果能做到那样。

Imagine if you could do that.

Speaker 1

那将彻底改变减肥领域。

That would revolutionize weight loss.

Speaker 1

不过,每天口服一次的药听起来也不算太糟。

Although an oral once a day oral doesn't seem so bad.

Speaker 1

对吧?

You know?

Speaker 4

确实不算糟。

Not that bad.

Speaker 4

天哪,我也刚看了华尔街分析师对今天数据的评论。

Man, I I I also just reading where analysts around the street have reviewed today's numbers.

Speaker 4

他们说这基本上和同行其他公司的情况一致。

I mean, they say this is largely in line with the rest of this with with at least the peer group.

Speaker 4

所以,这个维持数据已经很不错了。

And and therefore, this maintenance number is great.

Speaker 4

这能说明有什么完全不同的情况在发生吗?

Is it is it enough to say that there's something entirely different going on?

Speaker 4

不能。

No.

Speaker 4

但你看,我们说的是一个市值35亿美元的公司,这对一个需要扩展的公司来说可能是改变游戏规则的机会。

But, I mean, we're talking about $3,500,000,000 market cap where this could be a game changer for a company that needs to add on.

Speaker 4

诺和诺德需要成为那家公司吗?

Does Novo need to be that company?

Speaker 4

我不确定。

I'm not sure.

Speaker 4

但我觉得还有其他公司,你知道,这种类型的

But there are other companies that I think, you know, this type of a

Speaker 3

这种并购

of a of a bolt

Speaker 4

非常合理。

on makes a ton of sense.

Speaker 1

但诺和诺德必须得做点什么了。

But Novo's gotta do something.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,在经历了糟糕的一年之后,股价先跌了8%,现在又跌了1%。

I mean, a 1% decline after an 8% decline after a horrible year.

Speaker 3

而且我觉得,就像我们大约一周前提到的,改名字也起不了什么作用。

And the name change wasn't gonna do it, I think, as we pointed out a week or so ago.

Speaker 3

不,我觉得他们需要,而且他们也意识到自己必须采取行动了。

No, I think they need, I think they realize they need to do something as well.

Speaker 3

而且你知道,这类机会属于那种风险低、回报高的类型。

And you know, are sort of, they're low risk, high reward type opportunities.

Speaker 3

就像蒂姆刚才说的,收购维京的交易可能会达到75亿到80亿美元。

As Tim just said, Viking deal would probably be seven and a half, eight billion dollar deal.

Speaker 3

还有Summit Therapeutics也在考虑范围内。

Summit Therapeutics is out there.

Speaker 3

我们提到GPCR,我想就是你说的那个G蛋白偶联受体,如果我没记错的话。

We talk about GPCR is the g in your bedang, I believe, if that's correct.

Speaker 3

有很多东西吗?

What are a lot of things?

Speaker 2

就是诺和诺德。

Is the Novo.

Speaker 2

诺和诺德。

Novo.

Speaker 2

真希望不是它。

Wish it weren't.

Speaker 10

一个对冲

A hedge in

Speaker 2

在你的袜子里。

your sock.

Speaker 2

我真希望是别的什么,我是说,而且……

I wish it were any other I mean And

Speaker 4

这几乎让你想说,但真是的。

almost makes you wanna say, but dang.

Speaker 6

确实如此。

It does.

Speaker 1

我觉得这会流行起来。

It's gonna catch on, I think.

Speaker 1

接下来要讲的是谷歌技术面的螺旋弹簧形态,为什么图表大师说这只股票现在值得买入,以及他认为还能涨多少。

Coming up the coiled spring in Google's technicals, why the chart master says this stock is a buy right now and how much higher he thinks it could go.

Speaker 1

他两分钟后回来。

That's when he's back in two.

Speaker 1

欢迎回到《快钱》节目。

Welcome back to Fast Money.

Speaker 1

股市涨跌互现,纳斯达克100和纳斯达克指数都创下盘中新高,但标普500收平,道指下跌185点。

A mixed saver stocks is the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq both hit intraday records, but the S and P closed at the flat line, and the, Dow sheds 185 points.

Speaker 1

苹果今天也创下历史新高。

Apple also hit an all time high today.

Speaker 1

这家科技巨头在2026年已经上涨了近25%,是今年七大科技股中表现最好的。

The tech giant now up nearly 25% in 2026, the best performing stock in the Mag seven this year.

Speaker 1

今天加密货币有点降温,比特币在过去一周上涨超过13%后,现在交易价格略高于86000美元。

And crypto cooling off a bit today, Bitcoin trading just above $86,000 after jumping over 13% over the past week.

Speaker 1

与此同时,Alphabet的股价比5月份创下的历史高点下跌了13%,但图表大师表示,这只股票准备反弹。

Meantime, Alphabet shares trading 13% off all time highs hit in May, but the chart master says the stock is ready to bounce.

Speaker 1

沃斯图表公司的卡特·布雷思韦特·沃斯现在带着图表加入我们。

Carter Braxton Worth of Worth Charting joins us now with the charts.

Speaker 1

嗨,卡特。

Hi, Carter.

Speaker 11

嗨。

Hi.

Speaker 11

嗯,正如你所说,实际上从峰值下跌了大约13%,甚至更多一点。

Well, just what you said, down some 13, in fact, a little bit more from its peak.

Speaker 11

问题是,这是机会还是问题?

The question is that opportunity or a problem?

Speaker 11

我们直接进入正题吧。

Let's get right to it.

Speaker 11

我们总共有四张图,和往常一样,时间框架相同。

We have, four charts in total, as is always the case, the same timeframes.

Speaker 11

第一张图上什么都没有。

The first has nothing on it.

Speaker 11

但这正是谷歌目前的状况。

But that is the Google circumstance as it stands here.

Speaker 11

现在,我们来标注一下,先画第一组线。

Now, let's annotate it first set of lines.

Speaker 11

画线的一种方式是画出所谓的收敛趋势线。

One way to draw the lines, you have what you would call converging trend lines.

Speaker 11

我们已经走到了这个形态的顶点,这代表一种僵持状态。

We've worked into the apex of this formation, it represents a standoff.

Speaker 11

再说一次,这只股票表现严重落后,从高点下跌了大约13%到14%。

Again, the stock is massively underperforming down some 13 or 14% from its peak.

Speaker 11

当然,其他像苹果这样的大公司,著名的、突出的,都在创出新高。

And of course, other stocks that are big such as Apple, famous, if you will, prominent are making new highs.

Speaker 11

另一种画线方法是延长那条上升趋势线,实际上可以追溯到2025年。

Next way to draw the lines extend that upward trend line in effect going back to 2025.

Speaker 11

同样的情况,它会不会从这里继续上涨呢?

Same circumstance, does it or does it not resolve higher from here?

Speaker 11

箭头代表我的判断,这是我的结论,其他人可能会画个红色箭头。

The arrows of judgment, that's my conclusion, others might put a red arrow.

Speaker 11

最后一种画法,只是换种方式讲述这个故事。

Final iteration, just another way to tell the tale.

Speaker 11

区间震荡。

Range bound.

Speaker 11

再想想,2月2日的时候,股价是3.49美元,今天收盘3.51美元,这八个月基本没动。

Again, if you think about this on February 2, the stock was $3.49 close today at $3.51 That's eight months of nothing.

Speaker 11

所以要么是机会,要么是问题。

So either an opportunity or a problem.

Speaker 11

我的直觉是机会。

My hunch is opportunity.

Speaker 11

我们在这里买入,期待反弹。

We're buyers here for a bounce.

Speaker 1

卡特,简单说一下,你在Meta图表上看到了什么?

And Carter, just quickly, what do you see in the meta chart?

Speaker 11

嗯,一周内涨了40%以上,十到十五个交易日,我们会做空它,卖出看涨期权,减仓,降低风险敞口。

Well, 40% plus in a matter of a week, ten, twelve, 15 sessions, we would fade that, sell calls against it, trim, reduce exposure.

Speaker 11

这是个大动作。

It's a big move.

Speaker 11

昨天已经消化了很多,没怎么动,但今天回踩又回补,我觉得接下来几天还会有更多回踩或回撤。

A lot was priced in yesterday, didn't do much, but back and fill today, and I would think, more backing and filling or backing away in the day, days ahead.

Speaker 1

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 1

卡特,谢谢。

Carter, thanks.

Speaker 1

卡特·布拉克斯顿的图表值得一看。

Carter Braxton worth worth charting.

Speaker 1

丹·内森,你觉得卡特的分析怎么样?

Dan Nathan, do you like Carter's assessment?

Speaker 5

我觉得这里的技术面不错。

I like the technical setup here.

Speaker 5

而且,你知道,如果你想想Meta的涨幅,我觉得在某种程度上是以谷歌的下跌为代价的。

And, you know, if you think about Meta's gain has been, you know, I think to some degree at Google's loss here.

Speaker 5

但是,你知道,当你想想今天市场发生的事,如果你不同意我们在其他一些行业看到的下跌压力,但谷歌和亚马逊确实跌了,我的一个好朋友兰斯·迈耶,他在媒体和广告领域投资了几十年。

But, know, when you think about what happened today in the markets and, you know, if you don't agree with some of the downward pressure we saw in some of these other industries, but the fact that Google and Amazon were down, a good friend of mine, Lance Meyer of who's been investing in the media space and the ad space for a couple day decades.

Speaker 5

他刚才提醒我,他是我们节目的粉丝,他说,如果你有这些代理来做商务,对吧,你从,你知道,不管你现在用的是Muse、Instinct还是谷歌上的什么,它会去买东西。

He highlights the fact to me just now, fan of the show, that, you know, if you have these agents doing commerce, right, and you go from, you know, whatever, you know, you're using, whether it's Muse, whether it's Instinct or something on Google, and it's gonna buy something.

Speaker 5

那么,你就得不到那个广告曝光了。

Well, you don't get that ad impression.

Speaker 5

而这最终可能会影响市场情绪,尤其是对那些依赖数字广告的公司。

And and that's the thing that ultimately can weigh on sentiment as it relates to some of these names that rely on digital ads.

Speaker 5

现在如果你想想Meta,你知道,我的意思是,这基本上就是他们赚钱的方式。

Now if you think about, you know, Meta, you know, I mean, this is kind of where they kinda make their money.

Speaker 5

而且亚马逊的广告业务增长很快,我们多次提到过,这是一个利润率非常高的业务。

And Amazon's got this fast growing ad business that we've highlighted on many occasions as a very high margin business.

Speaker 5

如果代理直接去亚马逊买东西,我们知道这可能是他们想屏蔽这些代理的原因之一,如果只是去买那个家伙特别喜欢的Metamucil,就不会产生广告展示。

And if an agent's going to Amazon, and we know this is probably one of the reasons why they wanna block these agents, they don't get the ad impression if it's just going there to buy that Metamucil that guy is a big fan of.

Speaker 1

我不太明白他为什么说Metamucil,但他指的是Meta这家公司。

I don't really understand why he's saying Metamucil, but he means Meta, the company.

Speaker 5

那个叫Muse的东西,其实叫Muse。

The movie known as The thing is called Muse.

Speaker 2

是Muse。

It's Muse.

Speaker 2

Muse。

Muse.

Speaker 5

听我说,

Stay with me here,

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 1

我反应有点慢。

I'm slow.

Speaker 1

抱歉。

Sorry.

Speaker 3

不。

No.

Speaker 3

你并不特别。

You're not particular.

Speaker 3

你其实很快。

You're actually very quick.

Speaker 1

没听懂,

Didn't get that,

Speaker 3

不过。

though.

Speaker 3

有意思,而且,

Funny, and,

Speaker 1

你懂我

you I get

Speaker 8

这一点,不过。

that, though.

Speaker 4

也许你不笑就说明了一切。

Maybe maybe your lack of laughing at that says it all.

Speaker 4

你只需要知道

That's all you need to

Speaker 8

这些就够了。

know.

Speaker 8

图塞尔大坝。

Tusel Dam.

Speaker 1

接下来,媒体大亨汤姆·罗杰斯将加入我们,聊聊人工智能在电影制作中的崛起,以及谁最有能力将这项技术搬上大银幕。

Coming up, media mogul Tom Rogers will join us next to talk about the rise of AI in movie production and who is best positioned to bring the tech to the silver screen.

Speaker 1

《快钱》两分钟后回来。

Fast Money is back in two.

Speaker 1

欢迎回到《快钱》,AI正在进军电影制作行业。

Welcome back to Fast Money AI getting in on the movie making business.

Speaker 1

制作公司Fountain Zero本月将发布其最新的AI电影《奥德赛:陨落》。

Production company Fountain Zero releasing its latest AI film this month, Odysseus The Fall.

Speaker 1

这部电影的制作成本仅为传统大制作电影的一小部分,因为每一个场景和画面都使用了人工智能。

It was produced at a fraction of the cost of traditional big budget films by using artificial intelligence in every scene and image.

Speaker 1

媒体大亨、CNBC撰稿人汤姆·罗杰斯是Fountain Zero的执行董事长。

Media mogul and CNBC contributor Tom Rogers is the executive chairman of Fountain Zero.

Speaker 1

汤姆还是我们母公司Versant Media的高级顾问,也是NBC有线电视前总裁,也是我们节目的老朋友。

Tom is also senior adviser to our parent company, Versant Media, and the former NBC cable president friend of the show as well.

Speaker 1

汤姆,见到你总是很高兴。

Tom, always good to see you.

Speaker 10

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

Speaker 1

我们之前聊过这部电影。

We've talked about this movie before.

Speaker 1

我们也展示过一些片段。

We've shown clips.

Speaker 1

它非常出色。

It's extraordinary.

Speaker 1

我不知道普通人看到它会不会觉得这是AI生成的。

I don't know if ordinary people would see it and think this is AI generated.

Speaker 1

不过,在制作过程中,你发现AI会如何改变电影行业呢?

What have you found in the process of doing this, though, in terms of how the movie industry will be changed by AI?

Speaker 10

上次我来的时候,我们展示了我们第一部电影的一个片段,对。

Well, when I was on last time, we showed a video from our first film Mhmm.

Speaker 10

那部电影叫《紫罗兰之梦》,在翠贝卡电影节首映。

Which premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival called Dreams of Violets.

Speaker 10

这次是一部两个半小时的巨作,《奥德赛:陨落》,对,又是一部。

This is a two and a half hour spectacle, Odysseus the fall, which is another Mhmm.

Speaker 10

讲述奥德赛故事的一种方式。

Way of telling the story of the odyssey.

Speaker 10

这部影片的特别之处在于,它是由一个人用他的电脑在夜间完成的,制作成本不到2.5万美元。

And what's remarkable about this is that it was one guy with his computer working at night for just under $25,000 that created this film.

Speaker 10

我不是说每个人都会像喜欢诺兰版的《奥德赛》那样喜欢它,但当你看到这部作品时,你看到的是电影制作的未来,以及好莱坞大制作如何能以极低的成本完成。

Now I'm not saying anybody would like it as quite as much as the Nolan version of the Odyssey, but when you look at this, you're looking at the future of filmmaking and how big budget Hollywood productions can be done at a tiny, tiny fraction of the cost.

Speaker 1

你能给我们一个具体的成本对比吗,和好莱坞大制作电影相比?

Can you give us an actual idea of the cost versus a big budget Hollywood film?

Speaker 10

众所周知,诺兰版的《奥德赛》耗资2.5亿美元,用这笔钱你可以制作一万部我们这样的电影。但我觉得关键点在于,我们开发的这套系统,让独立制片人、两人组成的编剧导演团队,可以坐下来使用我们基于视频模型构建的软件,自主地、不需要任何其他人参与,包括演员,就能以最低成本创作出精彩的电影,这完全消除了电影制作的资金限制。

Well, as many people know, Nolan's version of the Odyssey cost $250,000,000, and you could make 10,000 versions of our film for that that number, but I think the important point is that what we've developed here is a system for independent producers, two person writer director teams to sit down with the software that we have built on top of a video model, and autonomously without any other human beings involved, including anybody acting, can create terrific films at minimal cost, and that totally removes the financial constraints of filmmaking.

Speaker 10

即使是今天的独立电影,制作成本也可能在1000万到2000万美元左右,独立电影人真的很难获得这样的预算。

Even independent films today, which can cost in the neighborhood of 10 to $20,000,000, it is just really, really hard for independent filmmakers to get those kind of budgets.

Speaker 10

当我们消除了这些限制,剩下的唯一限制就是他们的想象力。

When we've removed those constraints, the only constraints now are their imagination.

Speaker 6

你仍然可以

You could still

Speaker 10

我们之所以选择《奥德赛》,是因为它是一部非常复杂的电影,里面有很多超自然的元素。

And why we did the odyssey is is a very complex movie with a lot of supernatural elements to it.

Speaker 10

如果你能坐在那里,看到一个人就能在电脑上把它做出来,我觉得任何有创意天赋的人——创造力仍然是整个过程中的核心——但创作者可以坐下来,不受任何限制地拍出好电影。

And if you can sit there and see how that can be created on a computer by a single person, I think anybody with some creative talent creativity still is at the heart of the whole process, but creatives can sit down and without constraint make great movies.

Speaker 3

我觉得你意识到你就是我们的汤姆·克鲁斯。

I think you realize you are our Tom Cruise.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,这些年来我们已经把这一点说得很清楚了。

I mean, we've made that perfectly clear over the years.

Speaker 3

他其实是这个节目的粉丝,你可能知道也可能不知道。

He's actually a fan of the show, as you may or may not know.

Speaker 1

在看。

Watching.

Speaker 3

而且他正在看。

And he's watching.

Speaker 3

那么这是取代好莱坞,还是补充好莱坞呢?

Now does this supplant Hollywood, or does it augment it?

Speaker 10

这个问题问得好,我觉得答案有很多种。

Well, it's a great question, and it's one that I think has a number of answers to.

Speaker 10

《奥德赛》里有13个真人形象。

There are the images of 13 live people in Odysseus.

Speaker 10

我碰巧演了门托。

I happen to play mentor.

Speaker 10

我的形象就是门托。

My image is mentor.

Speaker 10

我一点演技都没有,所以和汤姆·克鲁斯的类比到此为止。我觉得知名人士会把他们的形象和声音授权给AI电影,这对很多人来说会是一笔可观的收入。

I have no acting ability whatsoever, so the analogy with Tom Cruise stops there, and I think well known personalities will license their images to AI films and their voices, and I think that will be a lucrative role for many.

Speaker 10

另一方面,我觉得对于制片厂来说,他们在整个电影和电视制作过程中的优势在于他们的融资角色。

On the other hand, I think when it comes to the studios, their leverage in the whole filmmaking and television production process is their financing role.

Speaker 10

Netflix之所以能成为今天的Netflix,是因为它的飞轮效应让它拥有比任何人都大得多的内容预算,凭借这个预算,他们推动了国际发行,并在各个海外市场制作本地电影。而当电影和电视制作成本大幅下降时,这种优势就不复存在了。

Netflix got to be what Netflix is because the flywheel enabled it to have a far bigger content budget than anybody else, and with that content budget, they were able to drive international distribution and make local films in various foreign markets, and when the cost of filmmaking and television production goes down that dramatically, that leverage is no longer there.

Speaker 10

所以我觉得会有各种各样的后果。

So I think there are gonna be all kinds of consequences.

Speaker 10

我觉得对于有创意、有剧本但拿不到几百万美元拍电影的独立制片人来说,这会是巨大的福音。

I think for the independent producer who has many creative ideas and has a script, but doesn't get the access to the millions of dollars to make a film, it'll be a huge boon.

Speaker 10

所以这会让电影制作民主化,远远超出好莱坞的范围。

And so it's gonna democratize filmmaking well beyond Hollywood.

Speaker 1

你收到评论了吗?

Have you gotten reviews?

Speaker 10

我们收到了网上的评论。

We've gotten online online reviews.

Speaker 10

有些人觉得跟诺兰比差远了。

Some people think it's terrible compared to Nolan.

Speaker 10

也有人觉得这是不可思议的技术成就,就应该这么看待,对。

Others think it's an unbelievable technology achievement, and that's how it should be viewed as Yeah.

Speaker 10

一项令人难以置信的技术突破。

An incredible technology breakthrough.

Speaker 10

任何看过《奥德赛》的人,我都建议他们去 watch.fountain0.com 看看今天AI电影制作的最高水平。

I anybody who's seen The Odyssey, I urge them to go to watch.fountain0.com and see what the height of AI filmmaking is today.

Speaker 10

他们可以把它和诺兰所做的人工智能制作的最高水平进行比较,然后就能看到我们的人工智能电影制作取得了多么惊人的进步。

They can compare it to the height of AI production, which is what Nolan did, and you can see just how much incredible progress AI filmmaking has made with us.

Speaker 1

太有意思了。

Fascinating.

Speaker 1

汤姆,非常感谢你今天的分享。

Tom, thanks so much for sharing with us.

Speaker 6

谢谢你们的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

Speaker 1

接下来,我们来看看Capri的股价表现,今天Michael Kors的母公司股价上涨,这给零售板块整体带来了提振,背后的原因是什么呢?

Up, trying Capri on for size, the headlines giving the Michael Kors owner a boost today, and what is driving the strength in the broader retail trade.

Speaker 1

《快钱》节目又回来了。

Fast money is back in two.

Speaker 1

欢迎回到《快钱》节目。

Welcome back to Fast Money.

Speaker 1

今天Capri Holdings的股价上涨超过6%,此前《女装日报》报道称,Michael Kors的母公司已经和潜在买家进行了接触。

Shares of Capri Holdings jumping more than 6% today after Women's Wear Daily reported that Michael Kors parent has been in contact with potential buyers.

Speaker 1

Capri的股价在过去两年里一直很挣扎,自从它与Coach母公司Tapestry的合并协议破裂之后。

Capri shares have struggled over the past two years since its merger agreement with coach parent Tapestry fell apart.

Speaker 1

Karen,你觉得这合理吗?

Karen, does this make sense to you?

Speaker 2

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 2

我的意思是,我觉得他们要么挂了个明显的出售牌子,要么就是不太明显的。

I mean, I think they have had either a noticeable for sale sign or or not so noticeable.

Speaker 2

如果这正是他们想要的,我一点也不意外。

This wouldn't surprise me at all if that's what they wanted to happen.

Speaker 2

问题是,谁会买他们,出多少钱?

The question is who would buy them and for how much?

Speaker 2

但我确实觉得他们真的很想要那个交易,他们真的以为已经和Tapestry完全锁定了,结果却出现了那个很不寻常的结果,他们说是反垄断的问题。

But I do think they really wanted eggs that they they really thought they had and seemed to have had a deal completely locked up with Tapestry, and then you had that very unusual outcome where they said antitrust.

Speaker 2

我就在想,是不是Tapestry其实意识到,哦,我们其实希望这个交易泡汤。

And I wonder if Tapestry actually realized, oh, we want we want this to fall apart.

Speaker 2

这也是审判过程中发生的一部分情况。

And that was part of what happened in the trial.

Speaker 4

说到服装,我们今晚是在黑白模式下直播吗?

Speaking of of apparel and and are we streaming in black and white tonight?

Speaker 4

因为我看着Guy,你这边是黑白的,大家可能现在正在调整他们的特丽珑电视呢。

Because I'm looking at Guy in with your monochrome people are probably trying to adjust their Trinitron right now.

Speaker 4

我是说,你是不是

I mean, are you

Speaker 3

你知道吗,这挺有意思的。

You know, it's funny.

Speaker 3

他们用的是特丽珑。

They're in Trinitron.

Speaker 3

那些电视非常重。

They were very heavy television sets.

Speaker 3

我以前还真从卧室里搬出来过一台。

I actually carried one out of a bedroom once.

Speaker 6

有没有

Is there

Speaker 4

你今晚为什么是黑白的?

a reason why you're in monochrome tonight?

Speaker 3

没有。

No.

Speaker 3

嗯,不是,你觉得是摩尔纹吗?

I well, it's not is it moireng, do you believe?

Speaker 2

或者不是。

Or No.

Speaker 4

只是颜色

It's just it's just the colors are

Speaker 6

不存在。

nonexistent.

Speaker 6

不是黑色。

Not black.

Speaker 4

它们太糟糕了。

They're awful.

Speaker 1

那条条纹不太行。

The stripe is isn't Okay.

Speaker 1

我不是……

Don't I

Speaker 5

我是说,你知道,我……

I mean, you know, I

Speaker 3

我不知道。

I don't know.

Speaker 3

我穿了件衬衫。

I put on a shirt.

Speaker 3

我穿的是评论员服吗?

I was wearing commentary?

Speaker 4

我……只是……我们刚才在聊零售,对吧?

I I just it was we're talking retail right

Speaker 1

说他坏话。

rag on him.

Speaker 1

你也该说说柴油丹的衬衫。

You should rag on Diesel Dan's shirt too.

Speaker 4

那件是两年前的了。

Well, that's that was too that's two years.

Speaker 3

这是件

It's a

Speaker 4

有点难替他辩护。

little It's not easy to defend him.

Speaker 5

比如,该怎么做。

Like, what is do.

Speaker 5

你知道,这是

You know, this is

Speaker 4

一个难熬的夜晚

a tough night

Speaker 5

这里是我和盖伊·阿达尼之间,为玛丽·达菲准备的。

for Mary Duffy here between me and and Guy Adani.

Speaker 5

玛丽是第四面墙。

Mary is a fourth wall

Speaker 3

在那里。

there.

Speaker 1

我们有零售交易吗?

Do we have any retail trade?

Speaker 3

我觉得,凯伦可以谈谈这个。

I think I mean, Karen can speak to this.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,卡普里在这里有点像彩票。

I mean, Capri is sort of a lottery ticket here.

Speaker 3

他们评估,虽然这不重要,但估值很便宜。

Mean, they evaluate not that it matters, but it's cheap valuation.

Speaker 3

如果你看看这只股票的市值和它们将要产生的收入,我的意思是,肯定会有人冒险一试。

I if you look at the market cap of the stock and look at the revenues they're gonna generate, I mean, somebody's gonna take a flyer in this.

Speaker 3

所以,是的,我觉得你可以在这里买入这只股票。

So, yeah, think you can buy the stock here.

Speaker 4

XRT 目前处于下跌趋势。

XRT is in a downtrend.

Speaker 4

我不会追高这个。

I would not be chasing this.

Speaker 1

Diesel Dan 的衬衫没问题。

And Diesel Dan shirt is just fine.

Speaker 1

下一个最终趋势。

Next final trend.

Speaker 0

错过了精彩瞬间?

Missed a moment of fast?

Speaker 0

随时随地收听我们的节目。

Catch us anytime on the go.

Speaker 0

关注 Fast Money 播客。

Follow the fast money podcast.

Speaker 0

广告之后我们马上回来。

We're back right after this.

Speaker 1

现在是最后一笔交易的时间。

Time for the final trade.

Speaker 1

柴油丹。

Diesel Dan.

Speaker 5

我觉得高盛在这里被错杀了,可能是个不错的建仓位置。

Goldman Sachs, I think kind of unjustly hit here, probably a decent level to build a position.

Speaker 4

金博。

Kimbo.

Speaker 4

卡特,我是说,那些图表,他给了我所有我需要的信息。

Carter, I mean, those charts, he he gave me all I needed.

Speaker 4

一旦他加了标注,我就完全看好谷歌了。

Once he added the annotations, I was totally in Google.

Speaker 2

凯伦。

Karen.

Speaker 2

所以Meta你知道,他表现非常出色。

So Meta was know, he's had an extraordinary run.

Speaker 2

他们明天要开大会了。

They've become big conference tomorrow.

Speaker 2

我觉得你会看到一些上涨空间。

I think you saw some upside going into it.

Speaker 2

已经消化了很多好消息。

Price a lot of good news already.

Speaker 2

盖伊。

Guy.

Speaker 3

梅尔在休息时说,如果JJ·麦卡锡到本周末表现突出,她不会感到惊讶。

Mel was saying in the break that she wouldn't be surprised if JJ McCarthy were giant by the end of this week.

Speaker 3

而且她知识渊博。

And she's so her knowledge

Speaker 4

我喜欢她这么处理。

I like what she's doing with that.

Speaker 3

我喜欢她这么做的。

I like what she's doing that.

Speaker 3

她通常是对的。

She's usually right.

Speaker 3

就像南方铜业那样,山姆。

Like what Southern Copper's doing, Sam.

Speaker 1

不错。

Nice.

Speaker 1

感谢收看《快钱》节目。

Thank you for watching Fast Money.

Speaker 1

马特和吉姆·克莱默的《金钱》节目现在开始。

Matt and Money with Jim Kramer starts right now.

Speaker 12

《快钱》节目参与者表达的所有观点仅代表他们个人意见,不代表CNBC或其母公司或关联公司的观点,这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体提前发布。

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium.

Speaker 12

你不应将本播客中表达的任何观点视为进行特定投资或遵循特定策略的具体建议,而应仅将其视为一种观点表达。

You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific ment to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.

Speaker 12

这些观点基于Fast Money参与者认为可靠的信息,但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性,也不应以此为依据。

Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Speaker 12

如需查看完整的Fast Money免责声明,请访问cnbc.com/fastmoney免责声明。

To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/fastmoney disclaimer.

Speaker 0

从油价到房价,从政府支出到消费支出,从人工智能热潮到数据中心的反感,这次选举将如何影响你的钱包和投资组合?

From gas prices to housing prices, from government spending to consumer spending, from the AI boom to the data center back lash, how will this election hit your pocketbook and your portfolio?

Speaker 0

持续报道,经济选举,CNBC。

Continuing coverage, the economy election, CNBC.

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