CNBC's "Fast Money" - Netflix收益结果……以及能源交易的下一步走向 7/16/26 封面

Netflix收益结果……以及能源交易的下一步走向 7/16/26

Netflix Earnings Results… And What’s Next for the Energy Trade 7/16/26

本集简介

市场迎来重要财报日,联合健康和通用电气航空均超出预期,但所有目光都聚焦于奈飞——其第二季度营收未达预期。这家流媒体巨头在经历艰难一年后能否复苏?随后,纽约成为首个禁止AI数据中心的州,能源交易市场因此掀起波澜。TCW集团特邀交易员埃利·霍顿分析了数据中心需求激增如何超越电力供应能力,以及AI基础设施的前景。此外,谷歌推迟发布新一代Gemini模型导致股价下跌,新房数据出炉,投资者情绪更新。 Fast Money 免责声明 由Simplecast(AdsWizz公司旗下)托管。有关我们为广告目的收集和使用个人数据的信息,请参阅 pcm.adswizz.com。

双语字幕

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Speaker 0

交易往往从一个问题开始,接着是另一个问题,然后你面前就打开了十几张标签页。

Trading often starts with one question, then another, then a dozen tabs sit open in front of you.

Speaker 0

一位分析师说买入,另一位说等等,新闻标题却催你立刻行动。

One analyst says buy, another says wait, a headline says move now.

Speaker 0

信息过载只会让人困惑。

Noise can lead to confusion.

Speaker 0

Capital.com 内置的新闻与分析帮你基于清晰信息交易,而不是被情绪左右。

Capital.com's in platform news and analysis help you trade on clarity, not hype.

Speaker 0

所以,最终的决定权始终在你手中。

So decisions always stay yours.

Speaker 0

Capital.com,让交易更清晰。

Capital.com Trade with clarity.

Speaker 0

差价合约具有较高风险。

CFDs involve a high level of risk.

Speaker 0

有81.31%的散户投资者亏了钱。

Eighty one point three one percent of retail investors lose money.

Speaker 1

美国哪些州最适合做生意?

Which are America's top states for business?

Speaker 1

获取完整数据,逐州详细分析。

Get all the data and complete state by state analysis.

Speaker 1

看看你的州表现如何。

See how your state measures up.

Speaker 2

美国最适合做生意的州。

America's top states for business.

Speaker 2

立即前往 topstates.cnbc.com 查看完整榜单。

See the full list now at topstates.cnbc.com.

Speaker 3

来自纽约时代广场纳斯达克交易现场,这里是《快钱》节目。

Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast Money.

Speaker 3

今晚的节目安排如下。

Here's what's on tap tonight.

Speaker 3

奈飞股价遇冷。

Netflix gets chilled.

Speaker 3

这家流媒体巨头在财报发布后股价下跌。

The streaming giant shares lower after earnings.

Speaker 3

我们正在实时收听电话会议,为你带来所有细节,并分析当前该如何交易这只股票。

We are dialed into the call to get you all the details and lay out how to trade the name right now.

Speaker 3

此外,我们深入探讨数据中心领域,看看巨额资本支出如何影响这个行业,以及哪些低调的公司可能从需求激增中受益。

And digging in on data centers, how massive CapEx is impacting the space and the under the radar names that could benefit from a surge in demand.

Speaker 3

此外,台积电在财报后股价回撤。

Plus, Taiwan semi pulls back after earnings.

Speaker 3

礼来公司最新交易涉足致幻领域,而住房建筑商尽管抵押贷款利率升至近一年高点,仍录得涨幅。

Eli Lilly gets psychedelic in its latest deal, and homebuilders build up some gains even as mortgage rates hit nearly one year highs.

Speaker 3

这波上涨背后的原因是什么?

What's behind this bump?

Speaker 3

这种势头能持续多久?

How long could it last?

Speaker 3

我们会就此展开讨论。

We'll debate that.

Speaker 3

我是梅丽莎·李,今晚现场直播来自纳斯达克B演播室。

I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq on the desk tonight.

Speaker 3

今天和我一起的有史蒂夫·格拉索、凯伦·费恩曼、盖伊·阿达姆,还有我们的特邀交易员。

Steve Grasso, Karen Feynman, Guy Adame and our guest trader for the hour.

Speaker 3

埃利·霍顿,TCW的高级投资组合经理。

Eli Horton, senior portfolio manager for TCW.

Speaker 3

欢迎你,埃利。

Welcome Eli.

Speaker 3

我们先来看奈飞的股价。

We start off with Netflix shares.

Speaker 3

目前股价下跌近8%,回到了2024年底的水平。

They are sinking down almost 8% right now, trading at levels last seen in late twenty twenty four.

Speaker 3

这家流媒体巨头的财报符合预期,但下调了全年收入指引,并表示将减少发布用户参与度报告。

The streaming giant posting earnings in line with estimates, but narrowing its full year revenue guidance, saying it will give fewer engagement reports.

Speaker 3

电话会议正在进行中。

The conference call is underway.

Speaker 3

CNBC的麦肯齐·西加洛斯一直在旁听会议。

CNBC's Mackenzie Segalos has been listening in.

Speaker 3

麦肯齐,最新情况怎么样?

Mac, what's the latest?

Speaker 4

Netflix股价在盘后交易中下跌了8%,公司警告下半年业绩将走弱。

So now Netflix shares down 8% after hours as the company warns of a weaker second half.

Speaker 4

这家流媒体巨头预计第三季度营收增速连续第三个季度下滑,销售增长明显放缓。

The streaming giant calling for a sharp slowdown in sales with its q three revenue growth rate falling for a third straight quarter.

Speaker 4

此外,其营收和盈利预期均低于市场普遍预测。

Plus, both projected revenue and earnings came in below street estimates.

Speaker 4

Netflix在付费流媒体平台中仍稳居用户数量和观看时长第一,但问题在于,它的营收增长和用户使用时长已不再像过去那样强劲。

Netflix still leads paid streaming and subscribers and viewing, but it its issue has been the growth in both revenue and time spent on the service is not growing like it once was.

Speaker 4

公司称用户参与度依然健康,并强调直播活动是主要吸引力,但今年上半年的观看时长虽然高于去年同期,仅增长了2%。Netflix认为,考虑到世界杯和冬奥会的竞争,这个表现已经不错。

The company calling engagement healthy and pointed to live events as a major draw, but viewing hours, while higher than a year ago, rose just 2% in the first half of the year even as Netflix argued that was solid given competition from the World Cup and Winter Olympics.

Speaker 4

今后,这一指标将改为每年仅公布一次。

It will now report that metric only once a year.

Speaker 4

亮点在于一些新形式的内容。

The bright spots are newer formats.

Speaker 4

Netflix表示,播客正在推动更多白天和移动端的观看,而直播节目则吸引了超出其传统观看份额的新用户。

Netflix says that podcasts are helping drive more daytime and mobile viewing while live programming is bringing in customers beyond its share of total viewing.

Speaker 4

公司还提到,生成式AI已应用于约300个制作项目,称AI工具能更快、更低成本地提升内容质量。

The company also touting the use of generative AI across roughly 300 productions, saying that AI tools help deliver higher quality output more quickly and at a lower cost.

Speaker 4

就在刚才的电话会议中,联合CEO泰德·萨兰多表示,今年内容支出预计将增长约10%。

And on the call just now, Mel, co CEO Ted Sarando saying they are forecasting content expenses will be up about 10% this year.

Speaker 4

这个数字略高于过去五年平均的8%,但低于过去十年平均的14%。

That is a little higher than the 8% they averaged over the last five years and below the 14% that they averaged over the past decade.

Speaker 4

为了实现这些目标,内容支出正在增加。

So content expenses are going up to make this happen.

Speaker 4

另一位联合CEO格雷格·彼得斯也在电话会议中补充说,虽然直播节目占的观看时长不多,但它对吸引新用户和促成注册非常有效,所以观看时长并不总是直接等于收入。

And then his co CEO, Greg Peters, also weighing in on the call saying that while live programming accounts for less watch time, it actually helps with acquisition and sign up, so viewing hours doesn't always equal revenue.

Speaker 4

梅尔?

Mel?

Speaker 3

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 3

麦克,谢谢。

Mac, thanks.

Speaker 3

这些进展随时跟我们说一声。

Keep us posted on all this.

Speaker 3

麦肯齐·塞加洛。

Mackenzie Segalo.

Speaker 3

现在看来,奈飞的股价已经跌了将近百分之九。

So we see Netflix shares thinking they're now down almost 9%.

Speaker 3

支出增加了,透明度却降低了,我们能拿到的用户参与数据也会更少。

So higher spend, less transparency, and so to in terms of engagement reports that we're gonna get.

Speaker 3

以后每年只公布一次,不再是以前的两次了。

We're only gonna get it once a year instead of twice a year.

Speaker 3

你们觉得怎么样?

What do you think, guys?

Speaker 5

第一点,干得漂亮。

For number one, great job.

Speaker 5

我回来了。

I'm back.

Speaker 5

第二点,欢迎Eli上台。

Number two, welcome Eli on the desk.

Speaker 5

Eli说,我真的很担心你。

And Eli said, man, I was really worried about you.

Speaker 5

我听说了关于盖伊·阿达姆的那些糟糕消息。

I heard horrible things about Guy Adame.

Speaker 5

看到了吗?

See that?

Speaker 5

我的意思是,这事儿我真不知道该怎么回应。

I mean, that's just I mean, I don't even know what to say to that.

Speaker 5

话说回来,有个人一直对Netflix判断错误,那就是我,第一点。

With that said, so here's somebody who's been wrong about Netflix for a long time, me, number one.

Speaker 5

第二点,真正值得注意的是,自由现金流表现惨淡。

Number two, I think the real takeaway is free cash flow was a disaster.

Speaker 5

市场预期是27亿美元,结果只拿到了15亿,这正好印证了麦肯齐刚才提到的成本问题。

The street was looking for $2,700,000,000 that came in at a billion and a half, and that speaks to the cost that Mackenzie was just talking about.

Speaker 5

过去一周我们一直在说,如果你在找支撑位,那就在

What we have said over the last week or so is if you're looking for support, it comes in the

Speaker 6

2021年10月的高点附近。

form of the old high from October 2021.

Speaker 6

你记得吧,股价当时冲到68美元左右,之后一路下滑,整年都跌到了2022年。

If you remember, topped around $68 and then cascaded lower the rest of the year into 2022, I guess.

Speaker 6

所以这个位置就是你的关键支撑。

So that's your level.

Speaker 6

通常每天的成交量都在四千二百万股左右。

I mean, it trades 42,000,000 shares a day typically.

Speaker 6

明天可能会

Tomorrow's gonna be

Speaker 5

交易量会非常大。

a huge volume day.

Speaker 5

我们看看会不会把一些人逼出来,但这就是你的关键防线。

We'll see if you flush some people out, but that's sort of your line in the sand.

Speaker 3

实际上,自由现金流比预期少了十亿美元。

Free cash flow, in fact, was a billion dollars short of expectations.

Speaker 7

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

我想在电话会议中听清楚这到底是怎么回事,因为从他们发布的公告里,我有点没看明白。

I I wanna hear on the call exactly what that was about because I I couldn't quite see it from the letter that they put out.

Speaker 7

我的意思是,用户参与度确实不理想,但这一季度的参与度还算过得去。

I mean, the engagement thing, it's not good, but they did I mean, engagement for this quarter was okay.

Speaker 7

也没差到哪里去,基本还可以。

It wasn't you know, it was fine.

Speaker 7

据我了解,他们打算持续公布用户参与度数据,直到明年第一季度。

That won't begin until my understanding is they'll continue to announce engagement till the first quarter of next year.

Speaker 6

对。

Right.

Speaker 7

所以这并不是说,现在的用户参与度糟糕透顶。

So that's not saying then that, okay, engagement for going right now, it's terrible.

Speaker 7

我们不再公布了。

We're not gonna announce it anymore.

Speaker 7

他们会一直公布到那时,之后就不再公布了。

They are going to until then, and then from then on Right.

Speaker 7

一年一次。

Once a year.

Speaker 7

他们以前对订阅用户这么做时,我们就不喜欢。

We didn't love when they did that with subscribers.

Speaker 7

还记得吗?

Remember?

Speaker 7

那可是个大问题。

That was a big thing.

Speaker 7

后来大家也就慢慢习惯了。

And then that ended up, you know, the streets sort of got used to it.

Speaker 7

但很明显,现在面临不少阻力,盖伊,我从头到尾都和你站在一起。

But clearly headwinds here that, I mean, I've been right there with you the entire time, Guy.

Speaker 7

我以前在更高的位置上就看好它了。

I've liked it for a lot of points from higher than here.

Speaker 7

有几件事特别引起我的注意。

A couple of things stood out to me.

Speaker 7

第一,说到直播,这玩意儿挺贵的,具体看情况。

One, you know, talking about live, which is expensive depending on what it is.

Speaker 7

占了5%的预算,却只贡献了1%的观看时长。

That's 5% of spend, but only 1% of viewing hours.

Speaker 7

如果他们觉得这能吸引用户留下,那也行。

I mean, if they think that's what attracts people and they stay, okay.

Speaker 7

这没问题。

That's good.

Speaker 7

非英语内容的观看量增长得很快。

The non English content and watch is growing a lot.

Speaker 7

这类内容的收入通常比北美地区低不少。

That tends to be less, you know, not as high revenue as as North America.

Speaker 7

说实话,我对这个不太满意。

So, you know, I didn't love it.

Speaker 7

如果他们愿意,账上还留着一大笔钱可以用于股票回购。

They have a giant amount of cash left on their share buyback if they choose.

Speaker 7

现在成本低多了。

It is getting a lot cheaper.

Speaker 7

我觉得他们还剩两千七百亿可以动用。

I think they have $27,000,000,000 left they could do.

Speaker 7

这个季度他们回购了四十七亿美元。

They bought 4,700,000,000 this quarter.

Speaker 7

作为股东,我并不特别高兴。

I'm not not delighted as a shareholder.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

而且,股价下跌9%的背景是,预期本来就很低。

And and the the context of the 9% move lower is that the the bar was already low.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,对。

I mean Yeah.

Speaker 3

市场对这只股票的看空情绪非常高。

The bearishness on the stock was super high.

Speaker 3

这只股票在本季度内,基本上从上一次以来已经跌去了三分之一的市值。我能不能再补充一点?

The stock has lost about a third of its value in the in the during the quarter, basically, since the last time Can I just add one other

Speaker 7

不过?

thing, though?

Speaker 7

通常我会说,我不在乎他们的指引,因为他们给出的指引一向不准,总是偏低。

So, normally, I say, I don't care what the guidance is because they're not very good at giving guidance, so they always seem to be low.

Speaker 7

但这次不一样,上个季度他们就是这么做的,而这次的结果略高于指引。

However, we're in this this they did that last quarter, and this was slightly above guidance.

Speaker 7

这可不是你的问题吧?

It wasn't you know?

Speaker 7

所以也没多少……

So not a lot not

Speaker 3

也不是说要喜欢。

Not to like.

Speaker 7

也不是说这里要喜欢。

Not to like here.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

你呢,Eli?

How about you, Eli?

Speaker 8

最疲软的是本季度的业绩。

Softest weakened the quarter.

Speaker 8

我觉得这些数据根本缓解不了大家的担忧,Karen 刚才也提到这一点。

I don't think these numbers are gonna do anything to alleviate concerns, and Karen started to hit on this.

Speaker 8

他们没告诉我们的,几乎比告诉我们的还重要,而且他们正在逐步撤回越来越多的关键绩效指标。

It's it's almost what they didn't tell us matters more than what they did, and they they basically are starting to pull more and more key KPI metrics.

Speaker 8

一开始是订阅用户数。

So first it was subs.

Speaker 8

现在换成互动率了。

Now it's engagement.

Speaker 8

以前奈飞的故事是渗透率,就是用户从有线电视转向流媒体,这个空间还很大。

And the old Netflix story was this story of penetration, you know, of of cord cutting and and penetration, and and there's still is a long ways to go there.

Speaker 8

但现在情况变得模糊了,撤掉这些数据反而让人更怀疑,问题也多了起来。

But now it's somewhat muddied, and by pulling those metrics, it casts further doubt, and it brings into questions.

Speaker 8

这到底是个靠广告增长的生意吗?

Is this an advertising growth led business?

Speaker 8

还是个直播体育的平台?

Is it a platform of live sports?

Speaker 8

故事不再那么清晰了。

And it's not as clean of a story.

Speaker 3

对。

Right.

Speaker 3

你知道吗,这次电话会议的头条是,他们在全球电视观看份额中只占了5%。

You know, the headline here from the conference call is that they only have 5% of share of TV share, watching share globally.

Speaker 3

以前你会说,哦,这意味着他们的潜在市场还大得很。

And once upon a time, you would say, oh, that means their TAM Mhmm.

Speaker 3

还有很大的空间。

Is so much higher.

Speaker 3

他们还有95%的市场没拿下。

I mean, they they getting 95% still available to them.

Speaker 3

这种说法现在可站不住脚了。

That's not that's not flying anywhere.

Speaker 3

我觉得

I think

Speaker 9

最重要的一点,大家都提到了。

the the number one thing is everyone's touched on it.

Speaker 9

内容成本。

Cost of cost of content.

Speaker 9

这个成本到顶了吗?

Is that has that peaked?

Speaker 9

他们的内容成本还在上涨吗?

Is the their cost of content going up?

Speaker 9

听起来成本在升,但观众人数却没变。

It sounds like it's going up, and their viewers are static.

Speaker 9

不过你想想,他们之前一直是靠自然增长,直到开始做并购。

But if you think about it, they've been organic until they started with m and a.

Speaker 9

你看一下图表,自从他们开始并购之后,数据就开始下滑了。

Then if you look at the chart when they started with m and a, it falls off.

Speaker 9

我要往前看三年,如果我们能拿到这三年的图表,别搞那种四十年的,那人就喜欢那个。

I go back three years if we can get that chart for a three year chart, not a forty year chart that guy favors.

Speaker 9

但如果我们回到那个水平,那就跟2024年10月的时候差不多了。

But if we go back to that level, we're back to October 2024 levels.

Speaker 9

他们刚把价格打穿了。

They just broke them.

Speaker 9

接下来的支撑位大概在60左右。

So the next support is like 60.

Speaker 9

但要是再往前看,按盖伊的说法,这东西可能直接崩盘。

But if you even go back further to Guy's point, this thing could fall out of bed.

Speaker 9

话虽如此,现在反而是你该入手奈飞的时候了,毕竟已经跌得这么惨了。

Having said all of that, this is probably where you wanna actually buy Netflix, where it sent them to so bad.

Speaker 9

眼下还能更糟吗?

Right now, could it be worse?

Speaker 9

你真打算这么干?

Is that what you're gonna do?

Speaker 9

现在不打算行动,但也许明天早上9点31分可以考虑。

Well, not gonna do it right now, but maybe 09:31 tomorrow.

Speaker 7

不开了。

Not on

Speaker 9

那台笔记本电脑。

that laptop.

Speaker 9

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 9

我们再观察几天,但我认为情绪得在这几天里彻底消化一下。

We're we're we're gonna give it a couple more days, but I think sentiment has really needs to wash out next couple of days.

Speaker 9

这就像一块派。

It's a pie.

Speaker 7

不过,关于支出,有几件事要说一下。

Just a couple of things on expenses, though.

Speaker 7

内容,尤其是体育直播,成本确实很高。

So content so live sports, we know, is very expensive.

Speaker 8

对。

Mhmm.

Speaker 7

但我认为他们可以通过人工智能降低内容成本,而且AI在广告业务上也能帮上大忙,这部分业务我觉得还有不小的增长空间。

But I do think they do have some room to improve costs with AI, content costs with AI lower, and AI, I think, will help them more in their advertising business, which still, I think, has room to grow.

Speaker 7

但我也不确定。

But I don't know.

Speaker 7

我得等这通电话结束后再听一遍。

I gotta listen to this call later when it's over.

Speaker 5

你知道吗,这真的很了不起。

You know, it's pretty remarkable.

Speaker 5

我知道你什么都记得。

I know you remember everything.

Speaker 5

你什么都记下来了。

You write everything down.

Speaker 5

大概是去年七月吧。

It was sort of July of last year.

Speaker 5

汤姆·罗杰斯来过节目,他之前一直是个坚定的多头,

Tom Rogers came on the show who had been a staunch bull in

Speaker 3

就是去年这个季度之后的那位。

this Who was after this quarter last year.

Speaker 5

你看,我就知道你记得这事。

See, I knew you knew this.

Speaker 3

对。

Mhmm.

Speaker 3

是的,没错。

Well, yes.

Speaker 3

他是在《Squawk Box》上说的。

He said it on Squawk Box.

Speaker 3

那天我正好在看,引起我注意是因为他以前一直是Netflix的多头,后来却反转了。

I happened to be on that day, and it caught my attention because he had been a long time Netflix bull and then turned.

Speaker 8

然后反转了。

And turned.

Speaker 3

你知道吗?

You know what?

Speaker 3

这可不是说

It's not like

Speaker 5

不会再那样了。

that anymore.

Speaker 5

而且,如果我用股票的最高点来比喻的话,就是股价创了历史新高,他却突然反转了。

And exact and that was, if I may use the the balls high of the stock, the all time high of the stock, and he turned on a dime.

Speaker 5

接着你就开始谈到并购和那些各种事情,然后人们才意识到,史蒂夫刚才提到的内生增长根本不存在。

And then you start to get into m and a and all those different things, and then people realize that organic growth that Steve just talked about wasn't there.

Speaker 5

所以汤姆做得不错。

So good for Tom.

Speaker 5

话虽如此,我觉得史蒂夫和凯伦的情况,说实话,不管我们刚才说的那些逆风有多大,这个逻辑本身还是说得通的,希望我们之前指出的这个关键点大家能注意到。

With all that said, I think Steve and Karen, honestly, I mean, there is a level that this makes sense regardless of all the headwinds that we're talking about, and hopefully, it's level that we pointed out.

Speaker 3

作为产品经理,埃利,你看到这个会想,要达到什么程度才会让你感兴趣?

As a PM, Eli, you take a look at this and you think what what would it have to get to to make you interested?

Speaker 8

盘后交易一出来,情况就有趣多了。

It got a lot more interesting after hours.

Speaker 8

这话说得有点显而易见了。

Think, stating the obvious.

Speaker 8

说实话,我特别想看到他们真有内生增长的动力。

You know, look, I really wanna see that they've got organic levers.

Speaker 8

关于他们想收购华纳兄弟这件事,我觉得有点让人摸不着头脑。

You know, the the attempted acquisition of Warner Brothers, I thought was a a bit confusing.

Speaker 8

我明白背后的战略考量,但要是真有内生增长的手段,未必会这么做。

I understand some of the strategic rationale, but I'm not sure you would do that if you had the organic growth levers available to you.

Speaker 8

如果他们能重新点燃内生增长的引擎,那这个机会确实很有吸引力。

So if they can reignite that organic growth engine, it's it's certainly, attractive here.

Speaker 3

明白了。

Alright.

Speaker 3

电话会议还在继续。

Conference call ongoing.

Speaker 3

有最新消息我们会第一时间告诉你。

We'll keep you updated as we have headlines there.

Speaker 3

meanwhile,谷歌股价在盘中大幅下跌。

Meantime, shares of Alphabet sharply lower midday.

Speaker 3

彭博社报道称,该公司在推出Gemini 3.5 Pro产品方面落后了数月。

Bloomberg reporting the company is months behind schedule in rolling out its Gemini 3.5 pro product.

Speaker 3

谷歌正在花时间提升其能力,尤其是在编程方面。

Google spending time to improve its capabilities, particularly in coding.

Speaker 3

公司在五月的IO大会上发布了最新版AI模型,称其已在内部使用,并预计六月全面上线。

The company announced the latest version of its AI model at its IO conference in May saying it was being used internally, was expected to roll out broadly in June.

Speaker 3

阿尔法贝特股价当天收盘下跌超过4%。

Alphabet stock closed the day down over 4%.

Speaker 3

整体来看,这一天对大型云服务商来说都不太好。

It was not a good day overall for hyperscalers in general.

Speaker 3

不过我们确实看到了这一消息带来的下跌。

So but but we did see that dip on

Speaker 7

就是这条新闻。

this news.

Speaker 7

他们独有的就是这一点。

Unique to them is this particular thing.

Speaker 7

你知道,我其实也不太清楚。

You know, since I don't know.

Speaker 7

都快三年了吧,我们当初刚开始聊这个的时候,微软遥遥领先,结果Bard发布得一塌糊涂,后来还改了名字。

Is it three year almost three years ago already that we started talking about this with Microsoft way in the lead and the botched launch of Bard, and then they changed the name.

Speaker 7

对啊。

Right.

Speaker 7

他们确实走了不少弯路。

So a lot of missteps.

Speaker 7

但我还是觉得他们能调整过来。

I I I'm optimistic they can get it together.

Speaker 7

现在各大公司争抢领先地位的频率越来越高了。

I mean, the jockeying for position is happening with greater frequency.

Speaker 7

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 7

比如OpenAI最近两三周表现挺强势的,还有Meta。

Just, you know, OpenAI having a strong, I don't know, two or three weeks, and Meta.

Speaker 7

所以我也不确定。

So I don't know.

Speaker 7

但我还是很喜欢后面这部分故事。

I still like the rest of the story a lot.

Speaker 7

所以我也不确定。

And so I don't know.

Speaker 7

如果我一点都没持有,我可能会买一些,但我已经持有一大笔了。

I I don't know if I would if I own none, would buy some here, but I do own a fair amount already.

Speaker 9

我觉得这个故事已经变了。

I think the the story has has changed.

Speaker 9

回看几年前,这些公司都是增长引擎,科技领域里的超级巨头,增长机器。

When when we look back a couple years ago, these were growth machines, technology space, hyperscalers, growth machines.

Speaker 9

它们手上有大量的自由现金流。

They had a ton of free cash flow.

Speaker 9

资产负债表上现金充裕,增长势头强劲。

They had a ton of cash on their balance sheet, ton of growth.

Speaker 9

但现在它们已经缓解了大部分问题。

And now they've mitigated a lot of those.

Speaker 9

它们现在是在为增长花钱。

They're paying for growth.

Speaker 9

这能带来回报吗?

Is it going to pay off?

Speaker 9

增长还会继续吗?

Is the growth gonna be there?

Speaker 9

它们账上现金还是很多,但不再动用自有资金了。

They're dwindling away still a ton of cash on the balance sheet, but they're not using their own cash.

Speaker 9

所以它们的自由现金流被压缩了。

So they're crimping their free cash flow.

Speaker 9

我觉得整个财报季最值得关注的就是自由现金流。

I think the line to take away the whole earning season is free cash flow.

Speaker 9

如果自由现金流在增长,股价表现就会更好。

If it's growing, your stock is gonna do better.

Speaker 9

如果自由现金流被压缩,你的股票表现就会更差。

If it's being crimped, your stock is gonna do worse.

Speaker 9

支出方面。

Spending.

Speaker 9

如果你一直在花钱,我觉得这才是关键因素,不管你在哪个行业,这一点才是决定性的。

If you're spending it, I think that's where everything, no matter what sector you're in, that's the deciding factor.

Speaker 5

22号那份报告,我觉得财报表现明显让局势变得更好了。

The report on the twenty second, the setup obviously just got better, I think, in earnings.

Speaker 5

所以下周就要公布了。

So that's next week.

Speaker 5

我觉得这里有几点需要注意。

And I think there are a couple things here.

Speaker 5

我理解Steve的意思。

I hear what Steve is saying.

Speaker 5

他们确实有护城河,而且其他方面也在稳步发展。

They have a moat, and they have a lot of other things going from as well.

Speaker 5

至于那个搜索业务,一年半前大家还特别担心呢。

And that in that search business that a year and a half or so ago, people were really worried about.

Speaker 5

现在比以往任何时候都更强劲。

It's as robust as it's ever been.

Speaker 5

再把YouTube加进来一起看。

And then you throw YouTube in the mix.

Speaker 5

我觉得,就现在这个价位,谷歌真的很值得入手。

I mean, I I think you gotta like Google at these levels.

Speaker 5

尽管有这条新闻标题。

This headline notwithstanding.

Speaker 5

过去几周它的涨幅可是相当大。

I mean, it had a huge run over the last couple weeks.

Speaker 5

回馈一点出去,其实挺合理的。

Giving something back makes sense.

Speaker 3

YouTube当然也是Netflix的竞争对手。

YouTube, of course, a competitor to Netflix as well.

Speaker 3

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 3

在用户观看时长上,它是主要竞争对手。

A major competitor in terms of time spent watching something.

Speaker 3

没错。

Right.

Speaker 3

很多时间都花在了YouTube上。

A lot of the time is on YouTube.

Speaker 3

你对字母表公司怎么看?

How are you feeling about Alphabet?

Speaker 3

在争夺领先地位的过程中,这些细微的变动重要吗?

Does it matter, you know, these sort of the subtle steps in terms of the race to be in front?

Speaker 8

你觉得市场对这些公司的态度变得多快,是不是挺有意思?

Isn't it interesting how fickle the market is with these names?

Speaker 8

微软以前被认为是赢家,后来又被当成输家。

So I think Microsoft was a winner, then it was deemed a loser.

Speaker 8

Meta的态度一直摇摆不定。

Meta's gone back and forth.

Speaker 8

Alphabet从输家变赢家,现在又变回输家,而苹果突然成了赢家,也许是因为他们没把自由现金流花掉。

Alphabet was a loser to a winner, now a loser, and Apple has suddenly become a winner maybe because they're not spending free cash flow.

Speaker 8

这确实挺有意思的。

So it's it's quite interesting.

Speaker 8

这让我开始怀疑,这些大型语言模型相关企业的持久力到底有多强,商业模式是否真的稳固。

It makes me question sometimes the durability of the the businesses, the business model of running one of these are these LLMs.

Speaker 8

你是不是只靠最新一代模型的表现来衡量价值?

Are you only as good as your latest iteration of the model?

Speaker 8

我们听说,谷歌这次延迟的部分原因,是内部计算资源不足,所以才签下每月十亿美元的费用,向SpaceX租用算力。

And what we've heard is part of this delay was that Google was short of internal compute, and that's part of the reason why they signed up for a billion dollars, per month of rent to SpaceX for compute.

Speaker 8

这或许说明,真正的价值捕获其实发生在基础设施层。

And maybe that speaks to where the the value capture is really having happening, which is the infrastructure layer.

Speaker 3

是的。

Right.

Speaker 3

这反而会让Meta占了便宜。

Which then would play into the hands of Meta.

Speaker 3

要么是Meta,要么是英伟达。

Of Meta or NVIDIA.

Speaker 3

或者是英伟达。

Or NVIDIA.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

对。

Right.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

但这周不会。

But, not this week.

Speaker 7

不过没关系。

But that's okay.

Speaker 7

我特别想知道我们会看到怎样的情况。

I would be very curious to hear how we'll see.

Speaker 7

我们再回头看看谷歌云、微软Azure,还有

We'll go back again looking at Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and

Speaker 3

AWS是什么?

what's AWS.

Speaker 3

哦,AWS。

Oh, AWS.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

还有Meta。

And Meta.

Speaker 7

对。

Mhmm.

Speaker 3

对。

Yep.

Speaker 3

与此同时,台积电的股价下跌了超过2%,尽管这家芯片制造商大幅超过了第二季度的盈利预期。

Meantime, shares of Taiwan Semi down over 2% even after chipmaker handily beat q two earnings estimates.

Speaker 3

全球最大的半导体代工厂将今年的资本支出预测从520亿美元上调至560亿美元以上,甚至超过600亿美元。

The world's largest semi foundry raised its capex forecast for the year from 52 to 56,000,000,000 to more than $60,000,000,000.

Speaker 3

它还计划在亚利桑那州投资额外的100亿美元建设一座制造工厂。

It also set a plan to invest an additional $100,000,000,000 on a manufacturing facility in Arizona.

Speaker 3

其他芯片股也随之下跌,与思科实验室类似,美满电子、意法半导体、泰瑞达领跌,推动SMHETF跌至五月以来的最低收盘点。

Other chip stocks falling in sympathy with the Sarah Labs, Marvell, ST Micro, Teradyne leading the SMH ETF to its lowest close since May.

Speaker 3

所以,这又是一次,我们在存储领域看到不错的财报,但整个板块却对这些好消息无动于衷。

So this is just the latest time we get in the memory space, in particular, good earnings report, and the sector doesn't find any comfort in those good

Speaker 5

这种情况我们见过。

Seen it before.

Speaker 5

三月份美光科技的时候我们就见过,我记得。

We saw it with Micron in March, I think it was.

Speaker 5

你还记得吧,那支股票在创下历史业绩后,股价却跌了将近百分之三十五。

Remember I mean, that stock sold for about 35% after historic earnings release.

Speaker 5

现在Micron又上演了同样的戏码,可没人愿意提这事。

And now you're seeing it again with Micron that nobody seems to wanna talk about it.

Speaker 5

我不太明白为什么,但就在两个半月前,这股票还值一千二百美元,你看看现在跌到哪儿了。

I'm not sure why, but this was a $1,200 stock seemingly two and a half weeks ago, and look where it's trading now.

Speaker 5

这跌幅可不小啊。

That's a pretty significant move.

Speaker 5

这种事以前不是没发生过。

So it's not like this hasn't happened before.

Speaker 5

你刚才提到了SMH指数。

You mentioned the SMH.

Speaker 5

现在它已经跌到关键支撑位了,我觉得。

It's at pretty, I think, critical support levels here.

Speaker 5

市场这才开始醒悟过来:等等,我们之前说的那些增长,估值看起来这么诱人,也许正是有原因的,周期性正在卷土重来。

And now the market is starting to discern, wait a second, you know, maybe all this growth that we've been talking about, maybe the valuations seem so compelling, maybe they're compelling for a reason, and the cyclicality is making its way back.

Speaker 5

也许吧。

Maybe.

Speaker 5

我觉得市场正在察觉到这一点。

I think that's what the market is sniffing out.

Speaker 3

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

埃利,你怎么看这种波动?

Eli, what do you make of the sort of volatility in this?

Speaker 3

另外,值得注意的是,韩国已经暂停了

And also, should note South Korea halting for, you know, the issuance of

Speaker 10

这影响很大。

It's huge.

Speaker 3

那种单只股票杠杆ETF,规模真的非常大。

Single stock leverage ETF, which is which is enormous, actually.

Speaker 3

韩国市场上有很多人在交易这种产品。

There's a lot of that trade being traded in South Korea.

Speaker 8

跨境货币交易量巨大。

Ton of cross currency.

Speaker 8

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 8

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 8

系统里存在杠杆。

There's a there's leverage in the system.

Speaker 8

散户抛售得很厉害。

There's a lot of retail selling.

Speaker 8

对冲基金也在被迫去杠杆。

There's forced hedge fund deleveraging.

Speaker 8

如果我们只看基本面和台积电的核心数据,业绩其实非常强劲。

If we just keep it to the the fundamentals and aggregate first principles for TSM, numbers were very strong.

Speaker 8

营收增长了34%。

Revenue grew 34%.

Speaker 8

我觉得最有趣的是,整个季度的业绩其实是在不断加速的,六月份的营收几乎增长了70%。

What I think is most interesting is that the numbers actually accelerated through the quarter, so June revenues grew nearly 70%.

Speaker 8

原因在于他们已经开始生产Reuben,但大规模量产要到今年年底才真正启动。

Reason why is they're starting to produce Reuben, and that won't even come on in production scale until the end of the year.

Speaker 8

所以现在才刚开始爬坡。

And so that's just beginning to ramp.

Speaker 8

TSMC从这里面拿到了非常亮眼的业绩。

TSM seeing really good numbers from that.

Speaker 8

再加上之前1650亿美元的投资,这次又宣布了1000亿美元的新投资,用于在美国建设半导体晶圆厂,这个增幅实在太惊人了。

I think the $100,000,000,000 announcement on top of a previous one sixty five, so a massive increase for new investment in in US semi fabs, I think is is compelling.

Speaker 8

这充分说明了市场需求有多强劲,也反映了美国正在重新推动制造业复兴。

I think it speaks to the demand and the re industrialization of this country.

Speaker 8

在我看来,台积电现在方方面面都表现得非常好。

So a lot of good with TSMC in my opinion.

Speaker 9

创下了历史单季新高。

Quarter ever in history.

Speaker 9

自由现金流怎么变化了?

What did the free cash flow go?

Speaker 9

下降了。

Went down.

Speaker 9

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 9

如果你关注未来推动股价的关键因素,我觉得这简直像一场军备竞赛。

So when you're focused on what's what's gonna move the stock from here going forward, it seems like an arms race to me.

Speaker 9

谁先耗尽资金,谁就会最先被甩出市场。

And whoever runs out of money fastest is going to get sold the quickest.

Speaker 9

现在市场上发生的正是这种情况。

And that's what you're seeing in this place right now.

Speaker 9

我觉得整个行业都显得有点过热了。

It feels toppy to me across the entire space.

Speaker 3

我还想知道,既然你要在美国加大芯片生产的投资,那你能像在台湾那样维持同样的利润率吗?

I also wonder, like, you're gonna invest more money in in chip production here in The United States, can you produce each of those chips with this equivalent margin as what you're producing in Taiwan?

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Speaker 3

我觉得不太可能。

I would say probably not.

Speaker 3

一旦这些产能在美国投产,利润率结构就会发生变化。

So there's a margin profile change when that production capacity comes online.

Speaker 3

那么在这些美国晶圆厂投产之前,我们现在是不是已经处在利润率的高点?

And so are we looking at peak margins from now until those US fabs are open?

Speaker 7

梅丽莎今天提了个特别棒的问题,看起来还挺聪明的。

Excellent question from very smart looking Melissa today.

Speaker 3

哦,是眼镜。

Oh, the glasses.

Speaker 3

眼镜。

Glasses.

Speaker 3

我根本不用上大学。

I don't have to go to college.

Speaker 9

那些是医疗用的

Those are the medical

Speaker 7

实验室。

labs.

Speaker 7

哈佛倒是,不过还是不行,你知道的。

Harvard anyway, though, but still, you know, no.

Speaker 7

不过这问题问得真好。

Excellent question, though.

Speaker 7

我再回到你提到的韩国暂停新杠杆ETF这件事。

I just come back to again the what you brought up about South Korea halting new levered ETFs.

Speaker 7

如果你现在持有一个杠杆ETF,你肯定得想,他们会不会出台什么措施限制你继续持有?

If you're in a levered ETF there now, you have to wonder, are they going to maybe, you know, do something to restrict my owning that?

Speaker 7

所以对我来说,这才是今天所有这些市场波动背后最主要的推动力,不管涉及哪个领域、哪种趋势。

So that to me is the biggest driver of all of this movement today across any tangent to, you know Across currents

Speaker 3

和杠杆有关。

and leverage.

Speaker 3

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

接下来,有一个令人震惊的举动。

Coming up, a mind bending move.

Speaker 3

礼来公司押注迷幻药物治疗精神健康问题,这是他们最新一笔数十亿美元的交易,同时我们也将分析制药股的未来前景。

Eli Lilly making a big bet on psychedelics to treat mental health conditions inside the company's latest multi billion dollar deal and the prognosis for pharma stocks next.

Speaker 3

此外,我们还会带来Netflix财报的最新动态。

Plus, we'll bring you the very latest headlines from the Netflix call.

Speaker 3

顶级分析师将加入我们,分享他们的核心观点。

Top analysts will join us with his biggest takeaways.

Speaker 3

别走开。

Don't go anywhere.

Speaker 3

《快钱》节目马上回来。

Fast Money's back in

Speaker 0

在

in

Speaker 2

的

the

Speaker 0

国家。

country.

Speaker 3

这个是阿特贝克利。

The is is Atybekli.

Speaker 3

这笔交易价值高达38亿美元,是心理健康治疗领域快速演变的最新迹象。

The transaction worth up to $3,800,000,000 is the latest sign of momentum in the quickly evolving landscape for mental health treatment.

Speaker 3

今天早些时候,安吉莉卡·皮布尔斯采访了礼来公司的首席科学官。

Angelica Peebles spoke with Lily's chief scientific officer earlier today.

Speaker 3

现在她加入我们,带来详细情况。

She joins us now with the details.

Speaker 3

你好,安吉莉卡。

Hi Angelica.

Speaker 11

嗨,梅丽莎。

Hey, Melissa.

Speaker 11

这笔交易让礼来获得了一种已进入三期临床试验的类似DMT的药物,用于治疗难治性抑郁症。

Well, this deal gives Lily a DMT like drug that's already in phase three, and that's being studied for treatment resistant depression.

Speaker 11

而且这还让他们获得了一整套致幻剂药物管线。

And it also gives them a whole pipeline of psychedelics.

Speaker 11

主打的DMT药物是一种鼻喷剂,能引发大约半小时的幻觉体验,需要在诊所监测两小时。

The lead DMT based drug, it's a nasal spray that produces a hallucinogenic trip that lasts for about half an hour, and it requires two hours of monitoring at a clinic.

Speaker 11

Lilly的首席科学官丹·斯克拉沃斯基认为,这种药物比那些持续数小时的致幻剂更融入日常生活,患者可能每年只需使用几次。

And Lilly's chief scientific officer, Dan Skravonsky, says that he thinks that that fits into people's lives better than some of the other psychedelics where trips last for hours, and that this one will likely just be taken a few times a year.

Speaker 12

过去,致幻剂一直背负着污名,科学界的一些人可能也没有认真对待它们。

In the past, psychedelics have had a a stigma, and parts of the scientific community may may not have, looked at them as as carefully.

Speaker 12

我不觉得这一定是个问题。

I don't see that as necessarily a problem.

Speaker 12

恰恰相反,我更愿意去研究那些别人忽略的领域。

Actually, it's attractive to me to work on things that others may be overlooking.

Speaker 12

我们过去研究的很多疾病都曾被贴上污名标签。

A lot of the diseases that we've worked on in the past have been stigmatized.

Speaker 12

但随着时间推移,我们用科学去解释,人们渐渐明白:这不过是大脑里的生物或化学反应,只要能干预,就能改善病情,污名自然就会消失。

And then over time, we bring science to bear and people understand, well, this is this is biology or chemistry in in the brain, and we can change it and make people better, and the stigma can go away.

Speaker 11

当然,礼来是一家大公司,接下来就看其他药企会不会跟进。

And, you know, Lilly, of course, is a very big company, and so we'll have to see if other pharma companies follow suit.

Speaker 11

各位怎么看?

Guys?

Speaker 3

强生公司也有类似的鼻喷剂。

Johnson and Johnson does have a nasal spray as well.

Speaker 3

安吉莉卡,这些药物在适应症上有什么不同?

Angelica, how does it compare in terms of the indications these drugs might treat?

Speaker 3

你还提到,药物作用时间和监测时长也不一样?

And also, you mentioned the length of the trip, also the length of the monitoring is different?

Speaker 11

是的,Spravato目前获批用于治疗难治性抑郁症。

Yeah, so Spravato is also, it's currently approved for treatment resistant depression.

Speaker 11

同样,这也是一种需要在诊所使用的鼻喷剂。

And same idea, this is a nasal spray that's actually administered in a clinic.

Speaker 11

所以患者至少要在诊所接受几个小时的观察。

And so you're monitored for a few hours at least.

Speaker 11

所以这一种需要至少两小时的监测。

And so that one is indicated for at least two hours of monitoring.

Speaker 11

而这一种时间可能更短,最多两小时。

And this could be shorter, so up to two hours.

Speaker 11

这里面可能还有一些细节上的差别。

There might be some nuances there.

Speaker 11

具体时长到底怎样,还得看实际情况。

We'll have to see exactly how that plays out in terms of the length.

Speaker 11

但有意思的是,这款药已经上市好几年了,他们一直花时间搭建这些诊所的配套体系。

But what's interesting is that, know, and j, this drug has been on the market for years, and they've spent time, you know, building up the infrastructure for these clinics.

Speaker 11

彭博社还做过一篇很不错的报道,详细介绍了他们是怎么推动这套体系建立的。

Bloomberg actually had a really good story detailing what they've done to help, you know, build out that infrastructure.

Speaker 11

所以思路是一样的,但这种DMT类药物,体验完全不同。

So the same idea here, but, you know, this DMT like drug, it's a different experience.

Speaker 11

我的意思是,这是一次完整的幻觉体验。

I mean, this is a full blown trip.

Speaker 11

今天早上我跟乔开玩笑说,这药可真够猛的。

I was joking, with Joe earlier this morning that it's, you know, it's a pretty potent drug.

Speaker 11

所以这事儿还得看看大家有没有兴趣。

So that's something that, you know, we'll have to see if people are interested in.

Speaker 11

我问了格拉凡斯基,你觉得这药会广泛使用吗?

I asked Gravansky, do you think that this will be widely used?

Speaker 11

你觉得真有那么多人愿意去体验这个吗?

You know, do you think there are that many people that want to go through this?

Speaker 11

他说还得再观察,但他觉得这东西潜力不小。

And he said, we'll have to see, but he does think that this could have some big potential.

Speaker 3

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 3

安吉丽卡,谢谢你。

Angelica, thank you.

Speaker 3

安吉丽卡·皮尔斯。

Angelica Peoples.

Speaker 3

股价上涨,这明显反映出市场对这项收购的看法。

And, of course, the stock going up, pretty good indication in terms of what people think about this acquisition.

Speaker 3

其实还不错。

It's actually alright.

Speaker 3

Lily今年才刚到七月,就已经完成或宣布了17笔交易。

Lily has either announced or closed 17 deals in 2026 just this year, and it's only July.

Speaker 5

这正是他们自家股票和货币成功带来的结果。

And that's what the success of their currency, their stock, were able to do for them.

Speaker 5

他们掌握着主动权,就像扑克桌上筹码最多的人,把筹码用得恰到好处,这很合理。

I mean, they're in the driver's seat, so they're the large stack at the poker table, and they're using their chips good for them, and they should.

Speaker 5

这再次说明,这个领域的并购活动还会持续下去。

This to me speaks to, again, M and A in the space, which will continue.

Speaker 5

我关注的一个推特用户,叫Chris Irons,他一直在写关于致幻剂的内容。

There's somebody I follow on Twitter, guy named Chris Irons, who's been writing about psychedelics.

Speaker 5

如果你想了解ETF,可以看看顾问类份额。

If you want to look at an ETF, look at advisor shares.

Speaker 5

他们有一个叫 PSIL 的基金。

They have something called PSIL.

Speaker 5

我没法详细分析它的具体成分,但如果你想广泛布局这个领域,这倒是个不错的选择。

I can't speak intelligently about the components, but if you want to be in a space in a broad way, that's one way to play it.

Speaker 3

今天制药板块有不少大动静。

We had a number of big movers in pharma today.

Speaker 3

默克公司也涨了,因为他们的每日一次降胆固醇药获得了 FDA 批准。

Merck was another one on the FDA approval of its once daily cholesterol lowering pill.

Speaker 7

是啊,这似乎效果更好。

Uh-huh, that seems to be even better than

Speaker 3

没错,这两者搭配得挺好。

Right, good combination combination those, yeah.

Speaker 7

他汀类药物作为仿制药,已经存在很久了。

I mean, are generics have been around a really long time, the statins.

Speaker 7

但这次的情况还挺特别的。

But that this was interesting.

Speaker 7

这一步走得真不错。

So that was a nice move there.

Speaker 7

对礼来来说,这是一笔现金交易。

To Lilly, this was a cash deal.

Speaker 7

股价上涨了120亿美元。

The stock moved the value the the stock was up by $12,000,000,000.

Speaker 7

收购价格大概是两点多亿吧。

The purchase price was, you know, 2 and something.

Speaker 7

没错。

Right.

Speaker 7

微不足道。

Tiny.

Speaker 7

没错。

Right.

Speaker 7

对他们来说真是好事。

So good for them.

Speaker 3

对。

Mhmm.

Speaker 3

你们谁在医疗行业工作吗?

Where are you in health care, if anyone?

Speaker 8

说实话,我今天之前从来没听说过泰·贝克利,但我做了一点功课。

So admittedly, I'd never heard of a Ty Beckley until today, but I did a little bit of reading.

Speaker 8

我觉得有意思的是,这本质上是个资本配置的故事。

And what I think is interesting is it's it's very much a capital allocation story.

Speaker 8

这说明了规模和竞争优势的力量。

So this speaks to the power of scale and competitive advantage.

Speaker 8

他们正把资金投向肥胖症和GLP-1这类快速增长的市场,转向长期增长型资产,我觉得这挺有眼光的。

And they're taking that the growth market of obesity and GLP ones and redeploying that cash at a long duration growth asset, which I think is interesting.

Speaker 8

这些人确实是资本配置的高手。

These guys are skilled capital allocators.

Speaker 8

这家公司的投资回报率超过百分之三十。

The company earns a 30 plus percent return on invested capital.

Speaker 8

从战略层面来看,这确实说得通。

You you know, strategic level makes sense.

Speaker 3

接下来,最新数据显示房地产市场前景黯淡,购房者面临更大压力,而住宅建筑商的股价却逆势上扬,这是为什么呢?

Coming up, no easy way home for the housing market inside the latest data painting a tougher picture for buyers and why homebuilder stocks seem to be defying the headlines.

Speaker 3

您正在收看《快钱》现场直播,地点是时代广场的纳斯达克交易大厅,稍后回来。

You're watching fast money live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square Back right after this.

Speaker 1

美国哪些州最适合做生意?

Which are America's top states for business?

Speaker 1

获取完整数据和各州详细分析。

Get all the data and complete state by state analysis.

Speaker 1

看看你的州排在第几位。

See how your state measures up.

Speaker 2

美国最适合做生意的州。

America's top states for business.

Speaker 2

立即访问 topstates.cnbc.com 查看完整榜单。

See the full list now at topstates.cnbc.com.

Speaker 3

欢迎回到《快钱》节目。

Welcome back to fast money.

Speaker 3

根据最新的房地美数据,美国抵押贷款利率已升至近一年来的高点。

US mortgage rates hitting nearly one year highs according to the latest Freddie Mac data.

Speaker 3

三十年期固定利率的平均水平现在是6.55%。

The average rate on a thirty year fix is now 6.55%.

Speaker 3

这比上周的6.49%有所上升。

That's up from 6.49% just last week.

Speaker 3

尽管数据如此,建筑商股票今天反而受到追捧。

Despite this data, homebuilder stocks actually catching a bid today.

Speaker 3

Pulte、KB Home、Toll Brothers等公司股价都上涨了。

Pulte KB Home Toll Brothers among the names in the green.

Speaker 3

mortgage利率真正反映国债收益率上升,通常需要一段时间。

I mean, it takes a while for the mortgage rate to actually reflect higher treasury yields.

Speaker 3

所以也可能是收益率从之前的高点回落了。

So it could be that yields have come down since that peak.

Speaker 5

你也知道,房贷利率短期内不会轻易下降。

You also know the mortgage rates are gonna stay sticky for a while.

Speaker 5

史蒂夫在休息时刚提醒了我,我们可以调出一张图表看看。

Steve was just just pointed out to me in the break, and we can pull up a chart.

Speaker 5

很多这类股票的走势,跟Pulte Homes、Toll Brothers这些公司几年前的双顶甚至三顶形态几乎一模一样。

I mean, are a lot of and these names look exactly like Pulte Homes, Tall Brothers, a lot of double and potentially triple tops from a couple years ago.

Speaker 5

我不太确定市场现在到底在关注什么,虽然失业率看起来还行,但大家普遍担心工作不稳。

I'm not exactly sure what the market is focused on here because the labor market, although the unemployment rate is fine, people are worried about their jobs.

Speaker 5

利率还在继续上升。

Rates are going higher.

Speaker 5

消费者的钱包已经掏空了。

Consumer is spent up.

Speaker 5

从各方面看,房地产开发商都该走弱,可偏偏它们中的不少正逼近历史高点。

There are a lot of reasons to be bearish to the home builders, yet here we are, a lot of them are approaching all time highs.

Speaker 5

这实在说不通。

It doesn't really make a lot of sense.

Speaker 9

我觉得这些人根本不是在卖房子。

And I don't think these guys are selling homes.

Speaker 9

他们是在买客户。

They're buying buyers.

Speaker 9

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 9

这种说法我们早就听过了。

So that we've heard that story already.

Speaker 9

他们在给房子打折。

They're discounting the homes.

Speaker 9

他们真的在降低房贷利率。

They're actually lowering the mortgage rates.

Speaker 9

对。

Mhmm.

Speaker 9

除非房贷利率降到百分之五点五,否则这个板块不会突然爆发。

Until mortgage rates drop to five and a half percent, you're not gonna see this this sector explode.

Speaker 9

他们正在压缩自己的利润空间。

They're crimping their own margins.

Speaker 9

在这种环境下,能赚钱的公司寥寥无几。

There's very few of them that could make money in this type of environment.

Speaker 9

有个人说,看看Pulte、德鲁·霍顿或者托尔兄弟,其他的都不值一提。

Guy said, Pulte, if you look at Doctor Horton or Toll Brothers, the rest are garbage.

Speaker 3

另外,我的意思是

The other I mean

Speaker 9

我是说,这话已经说得挺客气了。

that in a nice way.

Speaker 9

我可不想因为这个收到一堆邮件。

I don't I I don't wanna get email on that.

Speaker 3

没错。

Right.

Speaker 3

但说到这点,其实高端住宅的平均售价反而更高了。

But to that point, I mean, upper the median home sales price is actually higher.

Speaker 3

所以,这种K型复苏——或者说K型消费行为——在房地产市场也一样,高收入人群正在买房。

So it just I mean, the k shaped recovery is happening or the k shaped consumer, whatever you want to call it, is also in the housing market in that the higher income people are buying homes.

Speaker 3

他们可能全款购房,不依赖房贷,这部分市场还算稳定。

They might be buying for cash and not dependent on a mortgage, and that part of the market is is okay.

Speaker 8

住房可负担性太糟糕了。

Are you Home affordability is rough.

Speaker 8

这是25年来最差的情况。

It's the worst it's been in twenty five years.

Speaker 8

median房价已经涨到了多年来的最高点。

The median price up rates at the highest they've been in in quite some time.

Speaker 8

看看亚特兰大联储的数据,普通人每月收入的45%都要用来支付住房开支。

Look at the Atlanta Atlanta Fed, 45% of median income is what would need to be spent on the cost of homeownership on a monthly basis.

Speaker 8

自2021年以来,月供金额上涨了85%。

Since 2021, monthly mortgage payments would be 85% higher.

Speaker 8

这才五年时间。

That's five years.

Speaker 8

这话说得,咱们根本负担不起。

That's you know, we can't afford that.

Speaker 8

我宁愿不碰房产开发商。

I would prefer not to own a home builder.

Speaker 8

我觉得像福陆这样的公司更值得一看,因为他们更多面向装修市场,那才是K型消费里更稳健的那一端。

I think something more like a Ferguson would be interesting because they've got more exposure to the remodel community, which is the better end of the k consumer.

Speaker 8

而且他们还涉足水务基础设施领域。

And then also they have exposure to infrastructure on the water work side.

Speaker 3

接下来,奈飞的电话会议刚结束。

Coming up, Netflix's conference call just wrapping up.

Speaker 3

LightShed Partners的里奇·格林菲尔德马上加入我们,深入分析推动股价波动的最新动态,两分钟后回来。

LightShed Partners Rich Greenfield will join us next to dig into all the headlines moving the stock back in two.

Speaker 3

欢迎回到《快钱》,股市收盘全线走低。

Welcome back to fast money stocks ending the session lower.

Speaker 3

道指下跌一百点,标普下跌百分之零点五。

The Dow shedding a 100 points, S and P off a half a percent.

Speaker 3

纳斯达克跌幅最大,下跌了百分之一点五。

The Nasdaq leading the declines down a percent and a half.

Speaker 3

盘中有些大公司财报引发股价明显波动。

Some big earnings movers during the session.

Speaker 3

JB Hunt公布第二季度利润上升,且几乎所有业务板块收入都有增长,股价应声上涨8%。

JB Hunt surging 8% reporting higher profit in the second quarter as revenues grew across nearly all business segments.

Speaker 3

联合健康股价上涨1%,因保险公司上调了2026年的盈利预期,得益于好于预期的季度表现,不过此前其股价曾一度涨超10%。

United Health up a percent after the insurer raised a 2026 profit outlook on the back of better than expected quarter, although it had been up more than 10% at its highs.

Speaker 3

尽管GE航空航天业绩强劲,但管理层警告通胀压力和供应链问题仍在持续,股价下跌4%。

And GE Aerospace dropping 4% despite strong results after management warned of ongoing inflationary pressures and supply chain constraints.

Speaker 3

与此同时,SpaceX又迎来糟糕的一天,过去五个交易日累计下跌14%。

Meanwhile, another bad day for SpaceX now down 14% over the last five sessions.

Speaker 3

这是它首次收盘价跌破135美元的发行价。

It closed under its initial offering price of $135 a share for the first time.

Speaker 3

苹果股价上涨近2%,创下新高。

And Apple rising almost 2% to close at fresh records.

Speaker 3

它正一步步逼近超越英伟达,成为全球市值最高的公司,只差大约一千亿美元。

It is inching closer to unseating NVIDIA as the world's largest company, just about a $100,000,000,000 in market cap shy of that title.

Speaker 3

可口可乐股价下跌,交易时间延长,公司宣布数据泄露事件影响了其健康饮品业务部门,导致运营暂时中断。

And Coca Cola lower and extended trading, the company announcing a data breach impacting its fair life business segment resulting in a temporary pause in operations.

Speaker 3

盘后交易中,股价下跌了一点点,超过百分之一。

The stock is down a little more than a percent after hours.

Speaker 3

我们再来关注一下奈飞的股价。

And let's take another check on Netflix shares.

Speaker 3

目前股价下跌了超过百分之八。

They're down by over 8% right now.

Speaker 3

联席首席执行官表示,今年内容支出预计将增加百分之十。

The co CEO saying he expects content spend to increase 10% this year.

Speaker 3

我们还会把直播内容扩展到更多地区性活动上。

We'll expand live programming to regional events as well.

Speaker 3

里奇·格林菲尔德刚结束电话会议,现在加入了我们的讨论。

Rich Greenfield joins us now fresh off the conference call.

Speaker 3

他是LightShed Partners的联合创始人。

He's cofounder of LightShed Partners.

Speaker 3

所以,里奇,你怎么看?

So, Rich, what do you think?

Speaker 3

我的意思是,上个季度之前,市场是不是已经悲观到头了?

I mean, were, like, peak bearish, going into the quarter.

Speaker 3

那现在呢?

So now what?

Speaker 13

梅丽莎,说到底,投资者现在觉得奈飞的增长已经见顶了。

Look, Melissa, this is fundamentally investors believing that Netflix has gone x growth.

Speaker 13

他们就是觉得,用户活跃度根本没怎么涨。

Like, I think they are just projecting out and saying engagement isn't really growing much.

Speaker 13

上半年同比才涨了2%,他们心里就想,天啊,才涨了2%?

You know, it's up 2% over the first half of the year, year over year, and I think they're going, god, it's up 2%.

Speaker 13

这东西接下来怕是要跌得更厉害了。

This thing's gonna start to slow even more.

Speaker 13

收入增长原本预计全年扣除汇率影响能到12%,但现在他们觉得很快就要跌到个位数了,简直就把这家公司当成一家传统媒体了——已经有两个人直接发消息跟我说,现在Netflix就是个传统媒体公司,祝你好运去搞流媒体吧,别再指望像以前那样靠捆绑销售了。

Revenue growth, which was, you know, gonna be 12% for the year ex currency, they're going, that's gonna be the single digits pretty soon, and so they're literally just looking at this company as like, this is based two people have already texted me saying, this is now a legacy media company, and like, good luck streaming instead of the old good luck bundle.

Speaker 13

我的意思是,现在这种情绪,简直就是看空情绪的顶峰。

I mean, people are just This is what feels like peak bearishness.

Speaker 13

大家就是不相信流媒体还有增长空间,但我觉得这完全错了,尤其是看看广告业务,增长有多快,现在才刚开始而已。

People just don't believe that there is growth left in streaming, which I think is fundamentally incorrect when you look at this, especially on the advertising side and how fast that ad business is growing, how early it is.

Speaker 13

但说实话,梅丽莎,除了等时间来证明,我们根本没法反驳这种看法。

But honestly, Melissa, there's no way to disprove it other than just time.

Speaker 13

现在的投资者对这家公司一点耐心都没有,都在疯狂抛售。

And investors right now have no patience for this company, and they're just puking it.

Speaker 3

你觉得这么做对吗,里奇?

Do you think that's the right thing to do, Rich?

Speaker 3

还是说你根本不同意?

Or do you say no?

Speaker 3

你看,当看空情绪到顶点的时候,股价已经跌了三四成,还再跌9%,这时候反而该买进。

You know, with peak bearishness, the stock down additional 9% on top of being down 40% or 30% going into the court, you buy it.

Speaker 13

你确实该买。

You do.

Speaker 13

这正是抄底的时候。

I mean, this is when you find the bottom.

Speaker 13

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 13

你看,当所有人都恨得不行,觉得毫无希望的时候。

It's like when you see everyone who literally there is just hatred, and everyone is going there's no belief.

Speaker 13

你想想看。

I mean, think about it.

Speaker 13

他们的收入还在以百分之十二的速度增长。

They're growing revenues at 12%.

Speaker 13

利润率也在显著提升。

Margins are expanding meaningfully.

Speaker 13

他们大量回购股票,对公司前景充满信心。格雷格·彼得斯在电话会上也说了,我们公司还处在非常早期的增长阶段,可投资者根本不关心——这恰恰就是机会所在。

They're buying back a lot of stock, they have true conviction in how big the I mean, Greg Peters said it right on the call, we are still very early in our growth as a company, but investors are like, investors don't care, and so that's the opportunity.

Speaker 13

公司正在回购股票,他们自己也相信,我觉得未来一年,这会变成一个得用业绩说话的股票。

The company's buying the stock, they believe, and I think this is now going to become a show me stock over the next year.

Speaker 13

他们得证明自己真有增长,而且有一件事其实没人怎么提,那就是竞争变少了。

They have to prove that there is growth, and you know, one thing that isn't really being talked about, there is less competition.

Speaker 13

Hulu基本上被迪士尼逐步淘汰了。

You know, Hulu's basically being sunset by Disney.

Speaker 13

HBO呢,假设派拉蒙的交易最终能成行的话。

HBO, assuming the Paramount deal eventually goes through.

Speaker 13

至于监管审批会多快完成,还得看情况。

We'll see how fast it goes through with the regulatory battles.

Speaker 13

但最终,HBO会消失,被并入派拉蒙+,所以未来十八个月里,市场上流媒体服务的数量其实会少很多,竞争压力也小多了。

But eventually, HBO is going away and is going to be folded into Paramount plus And so the competitive dynamic is actually becoming a lot easier, I think, over the course of the next eighteen months in terms of how many different services are out there.

Speaker 13

但话说回来,这些现在都不重要。

But again, none of that matters today.

Speaker 13

眼下,大家纯粹是被用户参与度报告吓到了。

Right now, it's just fear on the engagement report.

Speaker 13

公司自己都说了,不再每半年公布一次用户参与数据,改成了每年公布一次。

The company even said, Oh, we're not going to report their engagement numbers on a six month basis, we're going to every year.

Speaker 13

只要你一取消披露某些数据,投资者就会觉得你在隐瞒什么,不管这些数据是不是真的影响收入或利润,大家就是心里没底。我觉得他们已经失去了投资者的信任,Netflix 要重新赢得信任,得花时间证明自己真能将利润增长推到百分之十几,甚至接近百分之二十。

Like anytime you pull numbers or pull information, investors think you're hiding something, it doesn't matter whether it's impacting revenues or earnings, people are just nervous, and I think they have lost investor confidence, and it's gonna take time for Netflix to demonstrate and prove to people that they can grow earnings high teens towards 20%.

Speaker 13

在他们真正把这成绩摆出来之前,大家还是会提心吊胆。

Until they do that and put that on the board, people are gonna be nervous.

Speaker 9

嗨,里奇。

Hey, Rich.

Speaker 9

我同意你的看法。

So I agree with you.

Speaker 9

我是史蒂夫。

It's Steve.

Speaker 9

我同意你的看法。

I I agree with you.

Speaker 9

我觉得,市场悲观到顶点的时候,反而是买入股票的好时机。

I think peak bearishness is is when you wanna buy the stock.

Speaker 9

我给你两个理由。

I'll give you two reasons.

Speaker 9

我觉得成本可能已经见顶,甚至开始下降了。

I think costs are probably rolling over, if not coming down.

Speaker 9

还有广告套餐这块。

And then the ad tier.

Speaker 9

没人给广告套餐应有的认可。

I don't think anyone gives it any credit for ad tier.

Speaker 9

在你提到的这些平台里,它依然是最好的流媒体服务。

It's it's still the best streamer out of all the names that you had mentioned there.

Speaker 9

它能带动整个行业。

It lifts all all boats.

Speaker 9

所以我一看这张图,就觉得这是个该入手的机会。

So when I look at the chart, I think this is a chart I wanna buy.

Speaker 9

我一点都不想卖。

I don't wanna sell.

Speaker 9

你跟我详细说说这个广告套餐吧。

Just talk to me about the ad tier.

Speaker 9

人们是不是都把它给忽略了?

Are people leaving that on on the side of the road?

Speaker 13

你知道吗,这个广告业务去年增长了100%,从15亿直接翻到了30亿。

You know, this is an ad business that's growing 50 or sorry, growing a 100% year over year, basically doubling from 1 and a half to 3,000,000,000.

Speaker 13

但30亿这个数字,其实还是很小。

But the 3,000,000,000 is still a tiny number.

Speaker 13

你看一下广告套餐用户在Netflix上花的时间,这30亿的收入,就算他们以后不再提升用户参与度——这点他们从不提——收入也完全可能比现在高出好几倍。

Like when you look at the amount of time spent on Netflix by the ad tier members, that 3,000,000,000, I think even if they never grew engagement, you know, something they don't talk about, if they never grew engagement again, that 3,000,000,000 could be multiple times higher than where it is today.

Speaker 13

我觉得他们在很多方面都在努力提升用户参与度,比如推出更短的节目形式,发展视频播客等等。其实最被忽视的一点是,他们提到新增的内容,像杰·谢蒂秀或者杰克·谢恩这类节目,用户根本不是晚上看,而是白天看,这说明是额外增加的观看时间。想想看,如果这种趋势持续一整年,用户参与度很可能会进一步提升,这对广告业务长期来说至关重要,毕竟观看人数直接决定广告机会。所以广告这块确实被严重低估了。

I do think that they're doing a lot of things to accelerate engagement in terms of going into shorter form programming, building out video podcasting, like there's a lot of things that they're doing, and that, you know, I think the most interesting line of the release that nobody really paid attention to was that they said all of the new forms of content they're adding, whether it's, you know, the Jay Shetty Show or Jake Shane, like those types of things, they're actually finding people are watching, not in the evening, they're actually watching during the day, and so they think it's incremental viewing, and so when you think about how that sort of compounds over the course of the next twelve months, I think there's actually reasons to believe engagement gets better, and that's obviously important longer term for the advertising business because obviously eyeballs equal advertising opportunities, and so there's no doubt that the advertising is being overlooked.

Speaker 13

现在根本没人关心这个。

Nobody cares about it right now.

Speaker 13

大家只说,哎,用户参与度不行。

It's just, hey, engagement is bad.

Speaker 13

我们打算卖出这只股票。

We're gonna sell this stock.

Speaker 3

里奇,今天就到这里吧。

Rich, we gotta leave it there.

Speaker 3

谢谢。

Thanks.

Speaker 3

感谢你的见解。

Thanks for your take.

Speaker 3

我们真的很感激。

We do appreciate it.

Speaker 3

谢谢,梅丽莎。

Thanks, Melissa.

Speaker 13

这是个巨大的机会。

Big opportunity.

Speaker 3

你同意里奇的观点吗?

Do you agree with Rich?

Speaker 3

这真是个大机会。

Big opportunity here.

Speaker 5

我同意,因为他们在这方面依然是顶尖的。

I do, because they're still the best in breed here.

Speaker 5

别管什么整个可调整市场了。

Again, forget about the total adjustable market.

Speaker 5

虽然现在大家都在谈,但他们目前的用户规模还不到他们预期的五成。

Although they're talking about it now, they've only reached 50% or less than 50% of what they believe their audience could be.

Speaker 5

喜欢它的理由很多,但像史蒂夫提到的,还有我们之前讨论过的,不看好它的原因在于:相比自由现金流和其他指标,他们的增长乏力,花的钱比市场愿意支持的还多,所以股价才落到这个水平。

There are lot of reasons to like it, but the reasons not to like it, as Steve pointed out, and as we talked about earlier, is the fact that vis a vis free cash flow and other things, the growth is not there, they're spending more money than the market wants them to, and that's why we're at these levels.

Speaker 5

但你现在买,价格已经很合适了。

But you get it at a valuation.

Speaker 5

这估值并不离谱。

It's not ridiculous.

Speaker 5

再说一遍,他们在自己的领域里是绝对的领头羊,完全占据主导地位。

Again, the best in breed in terms of what they do, and they dominate the space.

Speaker 5

所以我也说不好该咋跟你说。

So I don't know what to tell you.

Speaker 5

不过我明白你的意思。

I get it though.

Speaker 5

市场情绪跌到最低点的时候,感觉真的很糟。

Peak bearishness is feels really bad.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

埃利,你怎么看?

Eli, what do you think?

Speaker 8

我基本同意刚才大家说的。

I agree with most of what's been said.

Speaker 8

现在市场情绪低迷,这只股票人人都讨厌。

Peak bearishness, sentiment is it's it's a hated stock at the moment.

Speaker 8

但你得喜欢这种局面。

You have to like that.

Speaker 8

我确实有点怀疑自己的投资逻辑是什么。

I do question what my thesis would be.

Speaker 8

就像我之前提到的,我觉得这里的逻辑已经变了,从当初网飞的市场渗透率和S型曲线,变成了现在的广告业务,或者可能是直播体育。

Like I I mentioned earlier, I do think that the thesis has changed here from penetration and where Netflix is on the s curve to to now it's the advertising business or or perhaps live sports.

Speaker 8

我不确定这些新方向值同样的估值倍数,所以我对这个趋势有点怀疑。

I'm not sure those deserve quite the same multiple, and so I'm a little skeptical on that dynamic.

Speaker 7

凯伦,你怎么看?

Karen?

Speaker 7

说到估值倍数,明天这倍数肯定会下降。

So just to the multiple, though, the multiple would go down tomorrow.

Speaker 7

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 7

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 7

因为股价跌了,大概有8%吧。

Because the stock is down, I don't know, what, 8%.

Speaker 7

所以它的市盈率会在百分之十几,而且资产负债表非常健康。我一直觉得这里的价格偏低,之前就一直看好,现在反而更想加仓。

So it'll be a high teens multiple with a great balance sheet, and, you know, I I voted for a long time from higher than here, but I'll be looking to buy more.

Speaker 3

明白了。

Alright.

Speaker 3

接下来,我们来看看推动人工智能基础设施建设的‘卖铲人’,那些交易员们认为值得关注的冷门标的。

Coming up, powering the AI build out, a look at the picks and shovels of the AI trade and the under the radar names our traders say are worth a closer look.

Speaker 3

敬请关注。

Stay tuned.

Speaker 3

欢迎回来,《快钱》节目,今天聚焦与数据中心建设相关的能源股,股价普遍下跌。

Welcome back to Fast Money Energy names tied to the data center build out dropping today.

Speaker 3

Bloom Energy、Vistra Constellation、GE Vernova 都受到了冲击。

Bloom Energy, Vistra Constellation, GE Vernova all taking a hit.

Speaker 3

我们今天的嘉宾交易员,有个办法可以抓住这波需求上升的机会。

Our guest trader here has a way to play the rising demand.

Speaker 3

所以,Eli,你觉得哪些标的值得看?

So, Eli, which names do you like here?

Speaker 8

首先,从投资逻辑来看,我们坚定认为,电力基础设施这一层已经严重受限。

Well, first of all, just on the thesis, I I think we have a very strong view that the infrastructure layer, the power infrastructure layer is constrained.

Speaker 8

这成了一个瓶颈。

It's a bottleneck.

Speaker 8

这个国家的电力需求正在加速上升,原因有很多,这一点非常重要。

We're seeing acceleration of electricity demand in this country for multiple reasons, is important.

Speaker 8

不只是数据中心在推动需求。

It's not just data centers.

Speaker 8

还有制造业的回流。

It's reassuring manufacturing.

Speaker 8

经济电气化、交通电气化,这些都在催生比市场预期更强的电力需求。

It's the electrification of our economy, electrification transportation that's driving more robust demand than sometimes these stocks get credit for.

Speaker 8

我们在多个方面都看到了这种趋势的证据。

We see evidence of this in a number of ways.

Speaker 8

PJM——美国最大的电力区域——刚刚又经历了一次电价拍卖,价格直接触及了上限。

The PJM, which is the largest utility region, just had yet another power price auction that hit the cap.

Speaker 8

纽约州对数据中心实施了一年的暂停审批。

New York state put a one year moratorium on data centers.

Speaker 8

我觉得这个决定不太妥当。

I think that's the wrong move.

Speaker 8

这反而会阻碍企业和投资进入该州。

I think it doesn't encourage competition and business to come to the state.

Speaker 8

更合适的办法是所谓的‘自备电源’,让数据中心自己建发电设施,不依赖电网。

I think the right solution there is to what we call bring your own power, and data centers building their own power behind the meter not connected to the grid.

Speaker 8

像我们持有的鲍威尔工业和布卢姆能源,这两家公司就非常契合这个思路。

A company like Powell Industries, which we own, Bloom Energy, they both fit into that mold or that thesis quite nicely.

Speaker 5

我们简单聊聊布卢姆能源吧,它不到一个月前刚创了历史新高,大概3.5美元左右。

Let's talk about Bloom Energy real quick because it made an all time high, I think, less than a month ago, $3.50 ish.

Speaker 5

现在股价已经涨到200美元出头了。

It's straightened just north of $200 now.

Speaker 5

大概一周半前,有人发布了一份看空报告,说——

There was a short report, I think a week and a half or so ago, Or

Speaker 3

就是这周。

this week.

Speaker 5

是这周吗?

Was it this week?

Speaker 5

我时间感都乱了,不过无所谓。

I lose track of time, but whatever.

Speaker 5

我的意思是,现在大家都开始反对了。

Mean, the point is, now people are shooting against it.

Speaker 5

他们预计下周或者下下周公布财报。

They report, I think, next week or early in the following week.

Speaker 5

你对他们的业绩有什么预期?

Thoughts on what to expect in their earnings?

Speaker 8

那份报告主要讲的是他们能否拿到固体氧化物燃料电池所需的一种关键材料,我们已经做过调研了。

So, that report was focused around their ability to source a certain critical material that goes into solid oxide fuel cells, and we done our work on that.

Speaker 8

我们跟他们沟通过了。

We spoke

Speaker 10

向这家公司。

to the company.

Speaker 10

我们不认为这

We don't think that's

Speaker 8

是个问题。

an issue at all.

Speaker 8

Bloom公司在这些燃料电池上找到了绝佳的定位,而甲骨文公司正在完全依赖Bloom建设整个吉瓦级数据中心,这再清楚不过了。

Bloom has really found a a sweet spot with these fuel cells, and there's no better proof point than Oracle, which is building an entire gigawatt scale data center entirely on Bloom.

Speaker 8

以前你根本不会这么做。

You would never have done that before.

Speaker 8

以前只是备用方案。

It was redundancy.

Speaker 8

以前只是应急措施。

It was backup.

Speaker 8

现在他们直接把这当主力电源用了。

Now they're they're treating that as as prime power.

Speaker 8

这家公司带来的价值主张真的非常有意思。

So so really, really interesting value proposition that company is bringing to the market.

Speaker 3

那份看空报告特别提到一种关键材料——钪,说全球的钪储量有限,而Bloom需要的量远超全球可供应量,根本没法完成订单。

One of the arguments in the short report specifically about that critical material, scandium, is that Bloom that there's only so much scandium in the world and that Bloom would need more than what is available in the world in order to actually complete its backlog.

Speaker 8

没错。

Right.

Speaker 8

报告里说的正是这个意思。

And and we that's exactly what the report says.

Speaker 8

我们几个月前就开始调查这件事,结果得出了完全不同的结论。

We started looking into this several months back, and we found a different conclusion.

Speaker 3

钪的储量其实很充足。

So there's plenty of scandium.

Speaker 8

我们发现的情况就是这样。

That's that's what we found.

Speaker 7

关键是要知道去哪儿找。

You just gotta know where to look.

Speaker 7

你

You

Speaker 3

得找个人,你知道的。

gotta get a guy, you know?

Speaker 7

对。

Right.

Speaker 7

我这边还有一些相关的投资方向,比如奎恩塔服务公司,他们自己有个培训电工的大学,这挺好的;还有联合租赁,他们承接了大量大型项目。

I mean, I have some tangential plays that might fall into, you know, Quanta Services, which, actually has a university that creates their own electricians, which is a good thing to have, and United Rentals as, you know, these giant projects through there.

Speaker 8

完全同意。

Absolutely agree.

Speaker 8

奎恩塔其实踩在另一个瓶颈上。

I mean, Quanta plays on yet another bottleneck.

Speaker 8

现在的瓶颈就像打地鼠一样,这边刚打下去,那边又冒出来。

These bottlenecks are like whack a mole right now.

Speaker 8

对。

Right.

Speaker 8

这些需求在工业经济中不断冒出来,但技术工人却很难找。

They're just popping up in the industrial economy, but skilled labor is hard to come by.

Speaker 8

所以像Quanta或者Comfort Systems这样的公司,手里的技术工人特别稀缺,这就让他们更有定价权,竞争也更少。

And so Quanta or Comfort Systems, they have these skilled technicians and they're hard to come by, so better pricing power, less competition.

Speaker 9

我给我妻子买订婚戒指时,用的是钪。

I bought my wife's engagement ring with scandium.

Speaker 9

那价格真是低得离谱。

It was way way

Speaker 5

现在价格已经涨上去了。

ahead of the pricing right now.

Speaker 9

没错。

Yes.

Speaker 9

我眼下看到的问题,其实就是埃利刚才提到的。

The the the problem that I'm seeing is is is what Eli just mentioned.

Speaker 9

如果纽约率先这么做,会怎么样?

What happens if New York is the first state to start doing this?

Speaker 9

这个暂停令不仅仅关乎你自己供电的问题。

And the moratorium isn't just about bringing your own power.

Speaker 9

而是说,你在这里根本不能建任何东西。

It's about you're not building anything here.

Speaker 9

这实际上可能对超大规模云服务商有利,因为他们没法花掉本来想花的钱。

So that actually could be a tailwind to hyperscalers because they can't spend the money that they wanna spend.

Speaker 9

所以是受到更多限制了?

So it's more constrained?

Speaker 9

限制更多了。

More constrained.

Speaker 9

他们有钱,却没地方可投,钱都闲着。

They don't have the they can't they have dollars chasing nothing at that point.

Speaker 9

这算是相关领域下一个衍生的投资方向,不过我也同意,Bloom Energy和Powell Industries的图表看起来一模一样,这两个可能是这个领域里最好的投资标的。

I mean, this is this is sort of the next derivative play on it, but I agree the Bloom Energy chart and the Powell Industries chart, they look identical, and those are the two best plays probably in that area.

Speaker 3

Comfort Systems引起我的注意,是因为以前我和Karen坐Uber回家时,聊过哪些行业不会被人工智能取代。

Comfort Systems caught my eye because once upon a time, Karen and I were riding home together in our Uber, and we were talking about stocks and and areas that cannot be disrupted by AI.

Speaker 3

大家笑是因为

Guys laughing because

Speaker 5

我没笑。

I'm not.

Speaker 3

我们确实经常聊这个。

This actually what we talk about.

Speaker 5

我知道。

I know this.

Speaker 7

还有就是我们抱怨老公。

That and we complain about our husbands.

Speaker 7

至少我是这样。

Or I do.

Speaker 7

我觉得他就在。

I think he's in the.

Speaker 3

我其实

I actually

Speaker 7

是啊。

do.

Speaker 7

你们都在抱怨凯伦的丈夫。

You complain about Karen's husband.

Speaker 7

对。

Yes.

Speaker 7

大家都抱怨那个我们的……

Everybody complains about That our

Speaker 3

那是一种劳动。

that's the labor.

Speaker 3

建造数据中心需要专业技术,对吧?

That's a skilled labor, right, to build the data centers.

Speaker 9

百分之百。

100 that

Speaker 3

这不可能,说起来挺有意思,他们建了数据中心,但自己却不会被取代。

can't be I mean, it's interesting because they build the data centers, but they won't be disrupted.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 8

技能型劳动力之外,还有像Halo这样的地方,你根本不需要质疑它们的长期价值。

Skilled labor, then there's Halo, these places where you don't have to question terminal value.

Speaker 8

市场虽然过去一个月左右不太稳定,但投资者还是倾向于这些领域——当然,我说的‘安心’不是指温控系统,而是指那种安心感。

The market's obviously not the past month or so withstanding, found comfort in those, and no pun intended on comfort systems, but found comfort

Speaker 5

在这些企业身上。

in those businesses.

Speaker 5

在进入广告前,我想说,凯伦和梅丽莎的丈夫都特别棒。

Before we leave for commercial, let me just say that both Karen and Melissa have amazing husbands

Speaker 7

哦,你太...

Oh, you're very

Speaker 5

分别是本和劳伦斯。

in Ben and Lawrence.

Speaker 5

尽管他们可能会抱怨,但都是带着爱意在说。

And although they may complain, they do it lovingly.

Speaker 7

相反,我站在Lawrence这边。

The reverse, I'm with Lawrence.

Speaker 7

她站在Ben那边。

She's with Ben.

Speaker 7

不是的。

No.

Speaker 7

我...

I

Speaker 3

接下来,我们来了解一下散户投资者的现状,看看他们是如何应对市场波动的,以及市场情绪在下半年的走向。

Coming up, a pulse check on the retail trader, how they are navigating market volatility and where sentiment stands for the second half.

Speaker 3

《Investopedia》主编Caleb Silver将加入我们,分享他的调查结果。

Investopedia editor in chief Caleb Silver will join us next with his findings.

Speaker 3

两分钟后,继续关注快钱。

More fast money in two.

Speaker 3

欢迎回到《快钱》节目。

Welcome back to Fast Money.

Speaker 3

Investopedia 最新发布的投资者情绪报告出来了。

Investopedia's latest read on investor sentiment is in.

Speaker 3

尽管伊朗战争出现明显升级迹象,通胀担忧也持续存在,交易员们仍保持谨慎乐观。

And despite apparent reescalation of the war in Iran and inflation concerns, traders remain cautiously optimistic.

Speaker 3

今天在现场的是凯莱布·西尔弗,他是《People Inc》的首席商业编辑,同时也是 Investopedia 的主编。

Joining us here on set is Caleb Silver, chief business editor of People Inc, and the editor in chief of Investopedia.

Speaker 3

凯莱布,欢迎你来到节目。

Caleb, great to have you with us.

Speaker 3

44% 的人持谨慎乐观态度,但紧随其后的是持怀疑态度的人。

44% cautiously optimistic, but right underneath that is skeptical.

Speaker 10

对,没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 10

这也不奇怪。

And for good reason.

Speaker 10

我们真的已经筋疲力尽了。

We're exhausted.

Speaker 10

这六个月里,发生的新闻简直抵得上六年,普通投资者经历了很多,根本不知道该往哪个方向走,只好跟着趋势走,而趋势一直是向上的。

In six months, we've had, like, six years worth of news, and individual investors have been through a lot not knowing which kind of way to go, so they've just kind of gone with the trend and the trend has been up.

Speaker 10

从个人投资者的交易行为来看,其实没什么太大变动。

Not a lot of movement when you look at what individual investors are doing with their trading activity.

Speaker 10

我刚看了Banditrack的一项研究。

I was looking at Banditrack's study there.

Speaker 10

个别股票确实有波动,但总体交易量大幅下降,很多人都觉得:应该没什么大问题。

A lot of movement in some individual names, but by and large volume way down, so a lot of people are just saying, I think it's gonna be okay.

Speaker 10

我就再等等看。

I'm gonna hang in there.

Speaker 3

市场正处于泡沫中。

Market is in a bubble.

Speaker 3

这个比例比过去更高吗?

Is this is this percentage higher than in the past?

Speaker 10

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 10

现在的情况和过去差不多,他们还是觉得人工智能泡沫已经形成了。

It's right around where it's been in the past, and they really haven't come off of the AI is in a bubble thing.

Speaker 10

他们认为泡沫集中在这一块,但现在几乎所有东西都跟它挂钩了。

That's the part of the market they think is in a bubble, but everything is associated with that now.

Speaker 10

所以从散户投资者的看法来看,大部分资产都算是在泡沫里。

So by definition, most things are in a bubble if you talk about how individual investors feel.

Speaker 10

他们并没有停下自己的操作。

They're not stopping what they're doing.

Speaker 10

也许他们更倾向于买ETF了,因为分散风险,而单押个股对散户来说风险太大。

Maybe leaning more into ETFs than they have in the past just for the diversification and chasing single stocks has been dangerous for individual investors.

Speaker 10

如果你看他们买了什么,比如SpaceX之类的公司,结果并不理想。

They were chasing, if you look at what they've been buying, SpaceX and others, and it hasn't worked out well

Speaker 5

对他们来说确实不太顺利。

for them.

Speaker 5

你已经持续关注很久了。

You've been coming on a long time.

Speaker 5

我们很喜欢。

We love it.

Speaker 5

我最近看到一个新动向,石油和能源股。

Here's something I haven't seen, oil and energy stocks.

Speaker 10

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 10

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 10

你终于赶上潮流了。

Welcome to the party.

Speaker 10

他们又开始回流到石油和能源股,国际股票也跟进了,只是有点晚,但对科技股该往哪儿走,他们完全没方向,而且自己最看好的股票都跌了百分之十五到二十五。

They're back into oil and energy stocks and some international stocks late to it as well, but without, any guidance on where to go in terms of tech stocks and seeing a lot of their favorite stocks sell off fifteen, twenty, 25%.

Speaker 10

他们正在找别的地方投钱。

They're looking for other places to deploy money.

Speaker 10

这还不是大规模的资金转移,也不是大多数读者或调查对象的普遍行为,但确实有人在说:我觉得是时候了,该平掉一些过去几年让我赚了不少的仓位了。

Now it's not a large movement of money, and it's not most of our readers and most of our survey respondents, but it's something saying, I think it's time to unwind some of these trades that have made me so much money over the last few

Speaker 5

年了。

years.

Speaker 9

凯莱布,当你看这些数据和百分比时,就像梅丽莎说的,就在下面,还有一群人认为会出现完全相反的变化。

Caleb, when you look at these stats and this data and the percentages, as Melissa said, right underneath that, there's another group that believes that a 180 degree difference is gonna happen.

Speaker 9

关键在哪里呢?

What's the decoder ring?

Speaker 9

你做了这么长时间,看到大家都一边倒地看多或看空时,你怎么判断——

When you've been doing this for so long, when you see everyone push to the bullishness or push to the bearishness, where do you say, okay.

Speaker 9

这个百分比就是转折即将发生的临界点。

This is the percent where we're on the precipice of something changing.

Speaker 10

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 10

如果你把谨慎乐观和乐观的人加在一起呢?

What if you add up the cautiously optimistic with the optimistic?

Speaker 10

乐观的人加起来有六成,这甚至比其他一些分析显示的还要高。

We're talking about 60% optimism, and that's even more than a a I I or or other reads on that.

Speaker 10

所以我关注的是个股的买入情况。

So I look at individual stock buying.

Speaker 10

现在这种交易活跃度有多高?

How much of that activity is happening right now?

Speaker 10

这反映出风险。

That shows risk.

Speaker 10

还有那个我们常问的上万美元的问题——它能告诉你市场情绪在哪,你能感觉到稍微有点退潮了,因为大家有点疲了,这些个股的波动也太剧烈了。

Also, the $10,000 question that we love, that shows you where the appetite is, and you can feel it pulling back a little bit just because there's some exhaustion going on, and there's been some wild swings in these individual names.

Speaker 3

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 3

ETF才是头号主力。

ETFs is is number one.

Speaker 10

没错。

Number one.

Speaker 3

不过以前可是个股占主导。

It had been individual stocks though.

Speaker 10

是的

Yeah.

Speaker 10

之前在个股和ETF之间来回切换,但经过多次追高又被套之后,现在大家又开始转向分散投资,操作也更谨慎了,而且现在想参与市场,ETF的选择也多得多了。

It had back and forth between individual stocks and ETFs, and after enough chasing and getting burned by it, they're back trying to diversify and playing it a little easy, and a lot more choices now if you wanna access the market with ETFs.

Speaker 3

看起来他们已经放弃押注七巨头了。

It looks like they're giving up on a mag seven at this point.

Speaker 3

是在慢慢轮动。

I mean, slowly rotate.

Speaker 10

你说的慢慢轮动,具体是指什么?

What Slowly rotate.

Speaker 3

现在他们转向哪些方向了?

Where are they going to at this point?

Speaker 10

对

Yeah.

Speaker 10

他们之前追过SpaceX,最近也在追半导体板块。

Well, they've had done some chasing on things like SpaceX, and they did some chasing in semis right now.

Speaker 10

但你看看他们买的是什么,微软、英特尔都有,他们是在跟着资金走。当然,SK海力士对个人投资者来说是个大手笔,不过最近两到三周,资金明显在转向能源和其他一些表现不错的领域。

But when you look at what they're buying, some Microsoft, some Intel, they're going where the money is going, and of course, SK High Nix was a big buy, for individual investors, but again, the rotation into energy and other places that have seen some upside, that's been significant in the last, I would say, two to three weeks.

Speaker 5

债券收益率一直在上升。

Bond yields have been going higher.

Speaker 5

你的观众和读者对市场动态非常敏感。

Your your viewers, your readers are very in tune with what's going on.

Speaker 5

对此你有什么看法?

Any comments on that?

Speaker 10

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 10

确实有不少股票投资者。

There there are equity investors.

Speaker 10

他们喜欢股市,打算继续留在里面。

They like the stock market and wanna stick with it.

Speaker 10

财富就是在这里创造出来的。

That's where the wealth has been created.

Speaker 10

现在你可以从他们的回答看出哪些是年长的投资者群体。

Now you can tell who the older cohorts are cohorts are depending on what they answer.

Speaker 10

他们可能会先选伯克希尔·哈撒韦或者摩根大通这样的股票,而不是一上来就把大笔资金投进债券市场。

So bonds, but I think they would take something like a Berkshire Hathaway or a JPMorgan before they started deploying a lot of money into the bond market.

Speaker 3

在Investopedia上,你还能看到人们都在搜些什么。

At Investopedia, you can also track what people are searching.

Speaker 3

像预测市场这类话题,有没有进入热门搜索榜?

So where does this prediction markets, does that fall into a top search?

Speaker 10

当然有。

Absolutely.

Speaker 10

越来越多的人开始琢磨预测市场是怎么运作的,以及它最终会对股市产生什么影响。

And more and more people are trying to figure out how to how those work and how they will ultimately affect the equity market.

Speaker 10

但我觉得很多人最近都在学习一些新概念,比如绿鞋机制和禁售期到期,真是有意思。

But I think a lot of people have been getting educated in things like green shoe and lockup expiration Wow.

Speaker 10

因为

Because

Speaker 8

他们一直

they've been

Speaker 10

在追逐个股。

chasing individual stocks.

Speaker 10

看着人们主动了解这些事,真的挺有意思的。

So it's so fun to watch people educate themselves about what's happening.

Speaker 10

也许他们已经买了股票,然后突然想:等等,这是怎么回事?

Maybe they already bought the stock and are now like, wait a minute.

Speaker 10

锁定期是什么?

What's a lockup?

Speaker 10

绿鞋机制又是什么?

What's a green shoe?

Speaker 10

这些股票都去哪儿了?

Where did all that stock go?

Speaker 10

所以他们越来越懂了,不过有时候得亏点钱,才会重新思考策略。

So they're getting smarter about it, but sometimes it takes a little losses to make them go back to the drawing board,

Speaker 3

顺便说一下,这个词云图。

so And to just quickly, the word cloud.

Speaker 3

英伟达排第一。

NVIDIA is the biggest.

Speaker 10

依然是最大的持仓。

Still the biggest holding.

Speaker 10

依然是市场上最大的股票。

Still the biggest stock in the market.

Speaker 10

我觉得大家可能会稍微减持一点,但它确实赚了不少钱。

I think people may let go of a little bit of that, but it's made them a lot of money.

Speaker 10

所以对个人投资者来说,完全放弃这个让他们赚到钱的东西,确实很难。

So it's hard for individual investors to completely depart from what got them here.

Speaker 3

凯勒布,很高兴见到你。

Caleb, always good to see you.

Speaker 3

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 10

谢谢。

Thank you.

Speaker 3

凯勒布·西尔弗,Investopedia。

Caleb Silver, Investopedia.

Speaker 3

接下来是《最终交易》。

Up next, Final Trades.

Speaker 3

最终交易时间到了。

Final trade time.

Speaker 3

埃利。

Eli.

Speaker 9

哦,叫我呢。

Oh, that's me.

Speaker 9

那是你。

That's you.

Speaker 8

联合太平洋公司正从长达四年的货运低迷中复苏。

Emerging from a four year freight recession, Union Pacific.

Speaker 3

很高兴有你,Eli。

Great to have you, Eli.

Speaker 3

Steve。

Steve.

Speaker 9

我一个不太起眼但做得很好的投资是SL Green,专注于纽约的核心物业,稳扎稳打。

So one of my best investments that's under radar, slow and steady, SL Green, prime properties centered in New York.

Speaker 9

一直很平稳,我特别喜欢关注它。

It's been slow and steady, and I love looking.

Speaker 7

Erin?

Erin?

Speaker 7

在。

Yes.

Speaker 7

昨晚我说要跟带我来的女孩回家,其实我是要带着那个看涨价差期权回家。

So last night, I said I'm going home with girl that brought me, but I was going home with option trade with a call spread.

Speaker 7

我还要再跟她回家。

I'm going home with her again.

Speaker 7

不过,Netflix 上的剧可能得三天后才看。

Maybe three day rule on Netflix, though.

Speaker 7

我也这么觉得。

I think so.

Speaker 7

这个人。

Guy.

Speaker 5

顺便说一下,SL Green 的首席财务官马修·迪洛贝托是《快钱》的铁粉。

In unrelated news, Matthew DiLoberto, the CFO of SL Green is a huge Fast Money fan.

Speaker 5

哦。

Oh.

Speaker 5

吉利德股价下跌已经够多了。

Gilead sold off is enough.

Speaker 3

好了。

Alright.

Speaker 3

感谢收看吉姆·克莱默的《疯狂金钱》,马上开始。

Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now.

Speaker 6

《快钱》节目中所有嘉宾表达的观点均为个人意见,不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场,这些观点可能此前已在电视、广播、互联网或其他平台上发布过。

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium.

Speaker 6

请勿将本播客中表达的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作指引,而应仅将其视为一种观点表达。

You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of an opinion.

Speaker 6

这些观点基于嘉宾认为可靠的资讯,但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性和准确性,不应以此作为决策依据。

Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

Speaker 6

如需查看《快钱》的完整免责声明,请访问 cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer.business?

To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer.business?

Speaker 1

获取所有数据,以及各州的详细分析。

Get all the data and complete state by state analysis.

Speaker 1

看看你的州表现如何。

See how your state measures up.

Speaker 2

美国最适合经商的顶尖州份。

America's top states for business.

Speaker 2

立即前往 topstates.cnbc.com 查看完整榜单。

See the full list now at topstates.cnbc.com.

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