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一份关键的九月份就业报告。
A key September jobs report.
在美联储三年来首次加息之后，劳动力市场会显示出降温的迹象吗？
After the Fed's first rate hike in three years, will the labor market show signs of cooling?
新的数据以及它们对经济可能意味着什么。
The new numbers and what they could mean for the economy.
《Squawk Box》节目，明天东部时间早上8点30分，在CNBC Plus上直播。
Squawk Box, tomorrow 08:30AM eastern and streaming on CNBC Plus.
从位于纽约时代广场中心的纳斯达克市场现场直播，这里是《Fast Money》节目。
Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money.
今晚的看点如下。
Here's what's untapped tonight.
利率大反转。
The great rate reversal.
基准收益率一度触及24年新高，随后大幅回落。
Benchmark yields hitting new twenty four year highs before turning sharply lower.
这是信贷市场松动的信号吗？
Is this a sign of relief in the credit markets?
我们来讨论一下。
We'll debate that.
耐克因营收问题和不尽人意的业绩指引而股价下跌。
And Nike swooshing lower after a revenue mess and disappointing guidance.
艾略特·希尔还能做些什么来让公司重回正轨？
Is there anything Elliot Hill can do to get the turnaround back on track?
一位顶级分析师会发表看法。
A top analyst will weigh in.
另外，华尔街看好Meta，Airbnb CEO谈到了AI的影响力，还有房贷利率的连锁反应——购房成本上升如何影响消费者和信用卡公司。
Plus, Wall Street says bullish on Meta, what Airbnb CEO had to say about the reach of AI and mortgage rate ripple effects how rising cost of homebuyers is affecting consumers and credit card companies.
我是梅丽莎·李，在纳斯达克B演播室为你直播。
I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq.
今晚在座的有蒂姆·西摩、凯伦·费曼、考特尼·加西亚和加耶达米。
On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feynman, Courtney Garcia, and Gayedami.
我们首先来看利率的大幅回落，今天早盘收益率一度触及数十年来的高点。
We start off with that sharp pullback in interest rates after yields hit multi decade highs early in the session.
30年期收益率在回落前逼近5.7%，10年期早盘最高达到5.34%，但随后下跌超过10个基点。
Thirty year closing in on 5.7% before retreating the ten year maxing out at 5.34 early in the day, but then falling more than 10 basis points.
这一变动是在最新的制造业活动数据显示9月份大幅增长之后出现的。
The move coming after the latest reading on manufacturing activity showed a surge in September.
PMI指数达到了2022年5月以来的最高水平。
The PMI index hitting its highest since May 2022.
所以过去一个月利率大幅上升，10年期自8月底以来已经上涨了大约60个基点。
So rates are up substantially in the last month, the ten year gaining some 60 basis points just since the end of August.
那么，今天的回落是否意味着收益率已经见顶，还是这只是明天可能非常重要的就业报告发布前的短暂停顿，Guy？
So does today's pullback suggest yields have peaked or is this a brief pause in the rally ahead of what could be a very important jobs report tomorrow, Guy?
嗯，我听到你的声音，但看不到你的人。
Well, no, I hear you, but I don't see you.
因为我伪装了。
Because I'm camouflaged.
我喜欢这个。
I like that.
你等了很久了。
You've waiting.
你一直在等。
You've been waiting.
我没有在等。
I'm not waiting
现在。
now.
知道。
Know.
没关系。
That's fine.
不。
No.
我们爱
We love
你们所有人。
you all.
我们爱你们所有人
We love you all
一直如此。
the time.
顺便说一句，我是说，哪里……
By the way, I mean, where...
如果不是在亲近的家人面前，你真的能在餐桌上说这些话吗？
If not at a close family, can you actually say these things at the dinner table?
还能在哪里呢？总之……
Where else Anyway...
这就是我们
Is what we're
交易讲究的是策略性。
Trading is about being tactical.
还要理解事情发生的时间点。
And understanding when when things are happening.
你可以对某件事有结构性的看法，我确实有。
You you can have a structural view about something, which I do.
我认为利率会走高，但在一次走势中，有时会出现逆势波动。
I think rates are going higher, but within a move, sometimes you get these counter trend moves.
当TLT今天创下历史新低，然后在成交量不错的情况下反弹，你必须考虑到这一点。
When the TLT makes an all time low today and then reverses on what was decent volume, you have to take that in consideration.
听着，一切都会随着就业数据而改变。
Now look, everything can change this job numbers.
有很多变数，但如果你想在这里小试牛刀，这是很久以来第一次，TLT看起来可能会从这些低点反弹，这意味着你可能会看到利率不会大幅下降，但未来几周会有所走低。
There are lot of moving parts, but if you're trying to play a little stock market here, for the first time in a while, the TLT looks like something that might bounce off these lows, which means you could see interest rates, not markedly lower, but somewhat low over the next couple of weeks.
我们看到，在板块层面，盘中有些动作，我们看到了一些那种跟进。
And we saw, you know, in terms of some move sector wise intraday, we saw some of that sort of, you know, follow through.
工业股收涨了1%。
Industrials finished higher by a percent.
金融股也稍微有点起色。
We saw financials perk up a little bit.
我是说，就像我说的，我觉得很多图表看起来都很相似，都是对利率敏感，所以反过来也是成立的。
I mean, as I've said, I I think there are lot of charts that look very similar here that that interest rate sensitivity, so that reverse is true.
顺便说一句，欧洲市场收盘的时候我们也看到了这种情况。有时候你会看到这类交易，欧洲市场……而且我觉得，我也说过，我担心南欧或者欧洲的政府债券，以及我们十四、十五年前遇到的那些问题，又开始冒头了。
And by the way, we saw it when Europe went home, and sometimes you see these kinds of trades where the the European markets, and I I think, and I've said that I have concerns that Southern Europe or government bonds in Europe and some of the things that we had fourteen, fifteen years ago are starting to rear their heads.
我是说，法国国债和德国国债的收益率，那个十年期利差确实扩大了很多。
I mean, French yields to German bonds, so that spread on their tenure really has widened out.
大家一直都很担心那些“欧猪国家”。
People have been very worried about the pigs.
所以如果你看欧洲的银行股，它们似乎在讲述一个故事。
And and so if you look at European banks, they seem to be telling a story.
我们接下来会多聊聊银行，但欧洲市场收盘后，我们的市场确实好转了不少。
We're gonna talk more about banks here, but our markets got a lot better when Europe went home.
我想回到盖伊说的那一点，这并不意味着我认为这里的压力已经解除了。
And and I would just get back to what Guy said is it doesn't mean that necessarily I think the pressure's off here.
事实上，如果你看美国十年期国债收益率，很难相信，但它看起来很像夏天开始时COSPI的走势图。
In fact, if you look at the ten year bond yield in The US, it's hard to believe, but it looks a lot like the the chart of the COSPI did at the beginning of the summer.
所以你不能只朝一个方向走。
So so you just can't have a one direction move.
美联储官员今天也说了足够多的话，让人觉得十月份加息可能不是板上钉钉的事，尽管我们看到了相当高的ISM物价支付指数。
There are Fed officials out there also saying enough today to make it seem as if an October hike may not be a certainty despite the fact that we had a pretty hot ISM prices paid number?
所以我觉得这……
So I think that it's...
不管是什么导致利率上升，那些因素都还存在。
Whatever is causing higher rates, all of that still exists.
赤字还在那里。
The deficits are still there.
我们得在……
We have to fund them at a...
成本更高了。
At more expense.
经济还在稳步增长。
The economy is humming along.
这也是增长的一部分。
That's growth as well.
然后石油是个大问号。
And then there's a big question mark about oil.
它会跌吗？
Could it go lower?
会。
Yes.
它也会涨吗？
Could it go higher as well?
也有可能。
That may be the case.
而且我觉得，你知道，我们聊了很多关于美联储加息和债券市场走强这种反直觉的情况。
And I think, you know, we've talked a lot about the sort of counterintuitive situation of the Fed hikes, the bond market strengthens.
收益率走低，是因为大家觉得，好吧，有人在盯着通胀，而且我们……
Yields go lower because of the idea that, okay, someone's watching inflation, and we're...
我们是要对抗通胀的。
We are going to fight inflation.
所以我算是属于那种认为债券……的阵营。
So I I sort of am in the camp that bond...
谁知道短期内它们会怎么走？
Who knows where they go in the short term?
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
但我觉得，上行阻力最小。
But I I think higher is the least resistance.
我同意，短期内是这样。
I mean, agree with that in the short term.
我觉得这轮加息周期还没结束，但我其实认为我们可能更接近尾声而不是刚开始。
I don't think we're at the end of this this hiking cycle, but I would actually argue we're probably more towards the end of it than the beginning.
而且我觉得，如果你认为大部分影响已经被市场消化了，那么任何对利率敏感的资产都已经受到重创了，对吧？
And I think if you're if you're the idea that a majority of this has been priced in, anything that's interest rate sensitive has been hit so hard here, right?
你看房地产、银行、小盘股，任何受收益率曲线短端影响的领域。
You look at housing, you look at banks, you look at small caps, anything that is is affected by the short end of that curve.
是的，可能还会有更多影响，但你想在数据仍然不佳的时候开始逐步介入。
Yes, you're probably still have some more to come here, but you want to start to nibble in there while the data is still bad.
你不想等到达到峰值之后才开始利用这些机会。
You don't want to wait until you've hit the end of this peak before you start taking advantage of those opportunities.
所以我实际上会把这看作是有机会的，而且我认为你应该尽早开始关注，而不是等到以后。
So I would actually look at this more as I think there's opportunities to be had here, and I think you want to start to look at that sooner rather than later.
所以，对我来说，问题在于整个市场会怎么样？
So, I mean, I I think the question for me, though, would be what happens to the overall market?
因为我们在这次债券抛售中看到的是，资金流向了科技股，特别是科技股中的“七巨头”。
Because what we've seen here in terms of, you know, this bond sell off is we have seen a defensive move into technology and specifically into the mag seven part of technology.
所以，如果你开始想按照债券收益率已经见顶来投资，并且市场会有所扩大，那这是否会以牺牲大盘指数为代价呢？
And so if you are starting to want to invest as if bond yields have peaked and we get sort of this broadening, is it at the expense of the index level of the market?
有可能。
It might be.
而且这挺好的，因为我们一直在讨论的那些数据，比如标普500指数中大约13%的股票比52周高点下跌了40%或更多。
And and that's pretty good because all we just seem to do are talk about the the the stats that say that, you know, about 13% of the S and P are 40% or more off their 52 highs.
大约15%更多，至少15%...
About 15% more at least 15 per...
抱歉，大约50%的股票似乎下跌了10%到15%或更多。
Excuse me, about 50% of them seem to be somewhere 10 to 15% or more.
所以，指数的广度并不是那么令人印象深刻。
So, it's not as if the breadth in the index has been impressive.
实际上，这可能会以牺牲指数本身为代价，而这可能会被视为一个积极因素。
In fact, it it probably would be at the cost of the index itself, and that would probably be seen as a positive.
我觉得在收益率进一步下降的交易中，存在不对称的机会。
I I kinda feel that there is asymmetric opportunity in owning the next trade lower in yields.
我觉得这对市场来说会好得多。
I think it's gonna be much better for markets.
我认为市场会走高。
I I think markets are going higher.
我确实觉得我们现在面临的是银行以前没处理过的信贷动态问题。
I I do think what we're wrestling with here are some credit dynamics that that banks haven't had to deal with.
你没法告诉我，呃……
You can't tell me a a...
你知道，一年前，日本十年期国债收益率是1.65%。
Know, a year ago, the j g b ten year was at $1.65.
现在到了3.15%。
It's at $3.15 now.
这种幅度的变动不可能不引发问题，而且我觉得欧洲银行的表现比这里的银行还要差一些，但过去一段时间它们其实表现更好。
You can't have these kinds of moves without something breaking, and I I think the European banks, again, trade a little bit worse than the ones here, and they've also outperformed over the last.
所以我认为在工业股、必需消费品以及部分利率敏感领域都有机会。
So I think there are opportunities with industrials, within staples, within parts of interest rate sensitivity.
说实话，连能源板块我觉得都有机会。
Even energy, frankly, I think is offering an opportunity.
我投资科技七巨头，不是因为我想躲起来。
So the mag seven, I'm not in it because I wanna hide.
我投资它们，是因为我觉得这些公司的故事很有吸引力。
I'm in it because I I think those are compelling stories.
而且不像……
And Unlike
梅丽莎也是。
Melissa too.
……
The
不过另一方面，对于银行或者说某些银行来说，利率上升并不是坏事。
other thing is, though, for banks or some of the banks, higher rates is not a bad thing.
它们……
They are...
你知道，我们看到了他们多快就重新定价你的成本，而你的收益却来得慢。
You know, we've seen how quickly they reprice your costs higher and what you get slowly.
所以我们可能会看到利差扩大，以至于足以给底层借款人带来一些信用问题。
So we could see spreads widen to the extent that it moves enough that it creates some credit issues for the underlying borrower.
那就是另一回事了。
That's a different thing.
但我不认为这是……
But I don't think this is...
我觉得重新……
I think the re...
我挺喜欢银行板块的布局。
I I like the setup in banks.
我总说，我真希望我在财报开始前就……
I always say, oh, I wish I traded before...
在财报真正开始前就提前布局。
Down before the earnings actually start.
好的。
Okay.
可能我有点太希望这样了。
Maybe I wish a little too hard there.
这确实是个很好的机会。
This is a really good setup.
我想在财报前做多银行股。
I wanna be long banks going into this earnings.
这是不是...
Does this...
这感觉不像银行股财报前的典型抛售。
This doesn't feel like your standard sell off into earnings for banks.
对吧？
Does it?
还是说你觉得是？
Or does it for you?
因为对我来说不是这样。
Because it doesn't to me.
我觉得
It it feels to me
好像有……
that there's......
不过银行财报前总是有点什么。
Always something though going into the earnings for banks.
总是有点什么，但货币中心银行的故事已经好得太久了。
There's always something, but but the story in money center banks has been so good for so long.
而且你想，国债收益率居高不下，压力一路传导到整个经济，包括净息差相关的借贷成本。
And if you think about what's going on with the higher for longer treasury yield squeezes all the way down the economy, including borrowing in terms of net interest margins in it.
然后还有信贷，这个我们真不太清楚。
And and then you have credit that we don't really know.
我觉得这里没有信贷问题，但这挺有意思的。
I don't think we have credit here, but that's interesting.
所以你是说……
So you're you're...
现在是买入银行股的好时机吗？
This is as good of a time to go in and buy banks?
我觉得是的。
I think so.
如果我没有持有银行股，我会大量持有银行股，比如摩根大通和花旗。
If I own no banks, I own a lot a lot of exposure banks, JPMorgan and Citi.
因为摩根大通表现更差，我现在按美元计算持有更多花旗，但我绝对会在这里买入银行股。
And because JPMorgan's done worse, I own more Citi now dollar for dollar, but I would absolutely be buying banks here.
我认为很多过去的好事现在依然存在。
I think a lot of things that were good are still good.
我认为资本市场仍然活跃。
I think there's still activity in capital markets.
有那么好吗？
Is it as good?
可能没那么好。
Maybe not.
但我认为信贷，信贷质量，仍然不错。
But I think credit, I think, is still good, credit quality.
而且我觉得，你知道，交易这块，表现也不错。
And I think, you know, trading, that part, is good.
所以这里有很多值得看好的地方。
So there's a lot to like here.
这就是我们每天在会议上听到CEO们说的。
And this is what we heard from the CEOs during conference each day.
确实如此。
That's true.
其中一位。
One of them.
其中一位。
One of them.
一个大的。
A big one.
一个大的。
A big one.
其实并没有……
Didn't really...
如果你看行业……
If you go to sector...
所以如果你开始把这些点连起来，高利率给黄金市场带来的逆风是……
So if you start to connect dots, I mean, the headwinds that higher rates have created for the golden market are...
我们一直在说。
We talk about all the time.
我认为这会减弱。
That will abate, I think.
所以在我们刚才描绘的情景下，材料股表现好的可能性很大。
So there's a really good chance the material stocks under the scenario that we just painted out do well.
我再补充一点。
And I'll throw this in.
虽然哥伦布日股市是开市的，我不知道现在是不是还叫哥伦布日。
Although the stock market is open on Columbus Day, I don't know if it's still called Columbus Day.
别喷我啊。
Please don't at me.
但债市是不开的。
The bond market is not.
所以那个周末之前可能会有对债券非常有利的消息，尤其是现在David Zervos也加入了，还有各种不同的人，他们都有10...
So you could see something going into that weekend that could be very bond friendly, especially with now David Zervos signing on and all these different people that have 10...
算是间接的，我猜，对国债和美联储的潜在影响。
Tangential sort of, I guess, inputs into treasury and potentially the Fed.
在你家还是哥伦布日。
It's still Columbus Day in your house.
不是。
No.
好吧，蒂姆，我不是想冒犯任何人。
Well, know, Tim, I'm not looking to offend anybody.
我不知道。
I have no idea.
那是十月的一个节日，
It's the holiday in October that lands
在
on a
星期一。
Monday.
十月。
October.
好的。
Alright.
你知道谁可能知道那叫什么吗？
You know who might know what that is called?
谁？
Who?
其实是史蒂夫·利斯曼。
It's actually Steve Leesman.
我觉得他……
Think he...
他也是节日方面的专家吗？
He's an expert on holidays as well?
他是个……
He's a...
我是说，他会有很多话要说。
Mean, he's gonna have a lot of things.
关于这件事，他会说些外交辞令。
Diplomatic thing to say about it.
我们不谈那个。
We're not gonna talk about that.
他会谈到的……
He's talk about it....
在明天的就业报告里。
In tomorrow's jobs report.
史蒂夫·利斯曼，我们的资深经济记者，现在就在演播室。
Steve Leesman, our senior economics reporter is here on set.
很高兴
Good to
见到你……
see you....
不知道那叫什么。
No idea what it's called.
我不关心那些
I don't concern myself with those
事情……
things....
那太糟糕了……
That's bad...
我已经有够多烦心事了，梅丽莎。
I got enough to worry about, Melissa.
我知道。
I know.
要担心的事情多着呢。
There's plenty of things to worry about.
你在开玩笑吗？
Are you kidding me?
这个安排挺有意思的。
The setup is interesting.
我连工作的事都还没提呢。
I'm even talking about jobs.
我想聊聊蒂米说的那个话题。
I wanna talk what Timmy's talking about.
法国的CDS。
French CDS.
我喜欢这个。
I love this.
对。
Yes.
对。
Yes.
我们说的是，对于那些不太了解我在说什么的人，就是关于Mhmm的成本。
We're talking about for those who aren't hip to what I'm talking about is the cost of Mhmm.
为法国主权债券投保违约险。
Insuring French sovereign bonds against default.
哦。
Oh.
今天发生的情况是，它们又爆了。
What happened today is they blew out again.
它们一直在扩大，我想我们有一张图表是关于法国国债的。
They've been blowing out leading to, I think, one chart we have is the French tenure.
我们有那张图表吗？
Do we have that chart?
你们能看到吗？
Can you guys see
就在上面。
It's up there.
就在上面。
It's up there.
就在上面。
Right up there.
难以置信。
Unbelievable.
利差扩大了，桑迪他们那边。
Spread up the That Sandy and company.
这简直难以置信。
That's unbelievable.
那我们有什么？
So what do we got?
四个……
Four...
好的。
Okay.
所以今天这个和主权月一起爆了。
So that blew out today along with the sovereign month.
那个反弹波及到了我们这边，导致了十年期的反转。
That ricochet came over our shores and caused this reversal in the ten year.
所以蒂米说得对。
So Timmy's got the story right.
蒂米，这样可以吗？
Is it okay, Timmy?
是不是……
Is that...
蒂米很棒，
Timmy's great,
顺便说一下。
by the way.
我差不多……
I'm about...
蒂米，我可以是TJ。
Timmy, I could be TJ.
蒂米是个荣誉。
Timmy's an honor.
我知道。
I know.
所以这不一定是件好事。
So it's not necessarily the best thing.
但问题是这样的。
But here's the thing.
所以这就导致了……
So that then causes this...
我们当时在五点三十三、五点三十四的位置。
We were up five thirty three, five thirty four.
我们当时在抛售零七年的高点，回到零二年，大家都在这么做，然后突然之间就反转了。
We were taking out the o seven highs going back to o two, and everybody was writing that, and then all of a sudden it reversed.
我不是说没有人说过，你知道吗？
Now I'm not saying there wasn't some folks who said, you know what?
05/30 加上三个半或三个三十，这是真实的。
05/30 with three and a half or three thirty real.
因为如果去掉通胀因素，这其实是个不错的赌注。
Because if you take the inflation out of it is a pretty good bet.
所以也许有些机构进场了，但我担心收益率下降的原因并不是最好的那个。
So maybe some institutions moved in, but I'm afraid that the reason we declined in yields was not the best reason of all.
这就是那种情况，怎么说来着，马厩里最好的马，或者最好的狗……
It's one of those things, what do they say, the the best horse in the barn or the the the best dog...
又是一个比喻。
Again, another expression.
我觉得我们最好还是别用这些比喻了……
I think we should probably set it away from these metaphors....
袜子和洗衣篮。
Sock and the hamper.
我们可以拿马和狗开玩笑。
We can assault horses and dogs.
能不能……
Can we...
袜子和洗衣篮可能是最干净的说法了。
Sock and the hamper is probably the cleanest one.
最干净的袜子，所以美国在这种背景下看起来不错，但总的来说，主权债券可能正在被重新思考……
Cleanest sock and the So so America looks good in that context, but broadly, there is a sovereign bond rethink perhaps in...
尤其是在这个AI借贷热潮的背景下，你会想，嘿。
Especially in this context of this AI lending boom where you're like, hey.
你知道吗？
You know?
我会不会……
Am I gonna...
这里谁是更好的主权实体？
Who's the better sovereign here?
英伟达还是法国？
NVIDIA or France?
我觉得盖伊不需要两秒钟就能回答
And I don't think Guy needs two seconds to answer
那个问题。
that question.
嗯，你知道，史蒂夫，这些年来，我不是最聪明的人，但没错，我不……
Well, you know, Steve, over the years, I'm not the brightest bulb in the fixture, but yes, I don't
我不是那个意思。
need I didn't mean to imply that.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
那是你自己说的。
You said that about yourself.
顺便说一下，
By the way,
你应该去参加，蒂姆·奥泰。
you should have gone, Tim O'Tay.
如果你是个快
If you're a Fast
提姆·奥泰，钱提姆……
Money Tim...
是的。
Yes.
我们在说法语。
We are talking French.
提姆·奥泰。
Tim O'Tay.
我认识那个鼓手。
I know the drummer.
那就是鼓手。
That's the drummer.
总之，但我喜欢那样。
That's anyway, but I like that.
所以如果你想的话，我们也可以聊聊工作。
So we can talk about jobs too if you want.
对。
Yes.
那我们……
Let's...
因为现在的形势挺有意思的。
Because the setup is interesting.
在就业报告出来之前，美联储那边放了不少鸽派信号，而两年期收益率已经消化了一部分市场对美联储十月份行动的预期。
We got a lot of dovish Fed speak ahead of the jobs report, and we took out some of that expectation in the two year yield in terms of what the Fed will do in October.
我，我……
I I...
我能提醒一下，对这事儿得小心点吗？
Can I just caution to be a little careful with that?
好的。
Okay.
说它鸽派，是在美联储最终偏鹰的大背景下来看的。
It's dovish in the context of an ultimately hawkish Fed.
他们现在做的是……
What they're doing is...
顺便说一句，关于这个有很多讨论。
And by the way, there's a lot of talk about this.
问题是，约翰·威廉姆斯是被派出去的吗？对。
The question is, was John Williams sent out there Mhmm.
作为凯文·沃尔什的信使？
As a messenger of Kevin Walsh?
还是他出去是为了给凯文·沃尔什传递信息？
Or did he go out there to send a message to Kevin Walsh?
那就是你的猜测了。
That's your guess.
我倾向于认为，约翰作为纽约联储主席，把自己看作是主席的副手。
Tend to think that John sees his role as the New York Fed president as being a lieutenant of the chair.
我不认为约翰是在外面自作主张。
I don't think John is out there freelancing.
这些年来，我见过约翰在思考美联储和解释美联储方面是个非常重要的人物，但我觉得他不会在这件事上自作主张。
I have seen John over the years be a very important person in terms of thinking about the Fed and explaining the Fed, but, I don't think he's gonna freelance this.
顺便说一句，有趣的是，他们都在用这种“时间”的说法。
And by the way, one thing that's interesting is they're all sort of using this time thing.
杰斐逊今天就这么做了。
Jefferson did it today.
杰斐逊说，嘿。
Jefferson said, hey.
通胀很糟糕。
Inflation's terrible.
我们可能需要加息，但我们需要更多时间。
We need to probably raise rates, but we need a little more time.
他用三种不同的方式说了这个。
He used that three different ways he talked about that.
所以我觉得背景就是这样的。
So I think the context is here.
你看两年期国债，现在是4.84%，还是比美联储的利率高出一百个基点。
If you look at the two year, right, you're at $4.84, you're still a 100 over where the Fed is.
市场仍然在强烈预期，或者说相信美联储会比它自己认为的更加激进。
The market is still screaming or believing that the Fed is gonna be, by the way, more aggressive than the Fed itself thinks it's gonna be.
这一点很重要，得说清楚。
That's important to say.
这是第一点。
That's one.
第二点是，他们说的意思是，也许十月份我们不必加息。
But two is this idea that what they're saying is maybe we don't have to in October.
但我觉得十二月份可能会。
But I think in December...
昨晚我在外交关系委员会跟卡什卡里聊了聊，他对我说，是的。
I talked to Kashkari last night at the council of foreign relations, and he said to me, yeah.
我今年已经预计了一次加息，至于什么时候加，倒无所谓。
I got one in for this year, and it was sort of indifferent as to when it happens.
那我想多问问你关于威廉姆斯作为副手的问题。
So let me ask you more about that question of Williams as lieutenant.
你觉得这是不是...
Do you think it's...
会不会...
It would...
他们会不会真的讨论说，你为什么不出去说这个，因为我不太想说？
They would have a literal discussion of why don't you go out there and say this because I don't really want to?
有可能。
It could be.
在沃什领导的美联储里，不清楚的是，会不会有一个，以及是谁，来担任美联储主席的智囊。
What's unclear in the Worsch Fed is whether there's going to be and who it would be is gonna be the intellectual pulling guard for the Fed chair.
比如，以前是斯坦·费舍尔。
It had been Stan Fisher, for example.
我想是在耶伦任下吧。
I guess under Yellen.
可能我记错了。
Maybe I have that wrong.
也许是在伯南克时期。
Maybe under Bernanke.
还有其他一些人。
And and other folks.
克里斯·沃勒之前为鲍威尔做了一些工作。
Chris Waller had been doing a little bit for Powell.
但我们还不确定。
But we don't know yet.
我们还在过程中……
We're still in the process of...
我觉得凯文·沃什还在学习如何与市场沟通，而市场也还在学习如何倾听凯文·沃什。
I think Kevin Worsch is still in the process of learning to talk to markets, and markets are still in the process of learning to listen to Kevin Worsch.
所以这个过程让我至少还能保住几个月的工作。
So it's a it's a process that gives me a little job security for at least a couple of months.
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听起来你对利率路径的看法，或者说你接触的那些人的看法，是三月份利率还会更高。
It it sounds like though for the path of rates then you think or the people you talk to think that the march is still higher.
除非通胀情况出现逆转，否则三月份利率还是会更高。
The march is still higher unless we get some reversal in the inflation story.
我一直在听，也一直听到一种说法，就是通胀的范围比单纯的能源或关税问题更广泛。
What what I keep listening for and what I keep hearing is this notion that inflation is more broad based than just the energy story or the tariff story.
这里面有增长的因素，我昨晚想和卡什卡里聊聊。
That there's a growth story, and I wanna talk to Kashkari last night.
他说，我根本没花一分钟去谈……
He's like, I didn't spend a minute talking about the...
看看通胀数据。
Look at the inflation numbers.
我看GDP数据，然后你看AI那边的情况……
I look at the GDP numbers, And then you look at what's happening with AI and...
你看。
Look.
人工智能是当前最热门的投资方向，也是边缘债券和边缘借款人的焦点。
AI is the marginal bet out there, the marginal bond, the marginal borrower out there.
这说明了什么呢？
And what does that say?
这说明需求非常旺盛。
It says there's tremendous demand.
你看。
Look.
美联储从来没有经历过这种情况。
The Fed's never been through this.
我觉得整个国家也没有经历过。
I don't think the country's ever been through this.
我下周要做一个关于人工智能如何影响女性的报道。
I'm doing a story for next week on how AI will affect women.
我发现的一件事是……
And one of the things I found out...
是的。
Yes.
小心点。
Careful.
什么？
What?
要非常小心。
Be very careful.
我觉得这就像是在谈论
I just feel like this is like talking
原住民一样。
about indigenous people.
有人认为AI可能会对
Think the belief is that AI could hit
女性造成更大的冲击。
women harder.
有很多工作
There's there's a bunch of jobs
是她们通常从事的。
they tend to hold.
但你知道吗，比如，在……
But you know what, like, in...
在美国历史上的二十世纪二十年代，你知道这个国家历史上最大的资本投资是什么吗？
By the nineteen twenties in American history, you know what the biggest capital investment was in the history of the country?
是AT&T对自动电话交换机的投资。
AT and T's investment in automatic telephone switches.
你知道当自动电话出现后，女性发生了什么吗？失业了。
You know what happened to women when they got the automatic telephone Unemployed.
成千上万的女性失去了工作。
Tens of thousands lost their jobs.
所以这是其中一个类比。不过，也不是所有都是坏事。
So that's one of the analogies we're Not all is bad, by the way.
但无论如何，我们正在经历的事情，比个人电脑投资、比那个投资要大好几个数量级。而且我不确定美联储——顺便说一句，瑞银有一份很有意思的报告。
But in any event, we are going through something that is orders of magnitude greater, by the way, than the PC investment, than that investment, and I'm not sure the Fed, which, by the way, there's an interesting UBS commentary out there.
卡什卡里不信这个，但我就说说瑞银的观点：如果把经济分成AI和其余部分，那么其余部分正在萎缩。
Kashkari didn't believe this, but I'll just say what UBS said was that if you take the economy x AI, the rest of the economy is shrinking.
那你怎么设定联邦基金
Now, how do you set the funds
利率的背景呢？
rate context?
那医疗保健呢？
What about health care?
那高收入群体的消费呢？
What what about upper income spend?
我是说，你不能说这些不是重要的支柱吧。
I mean, can't tell me that they're not big pillars here.
我会把这三点作为主要故事。
I would put those three as the story.
我给你瑞银的数据。
I'll give you UBS's number.
你可以跟他们争论。
You can argue with them.
我
I
敢。
would dare.
史蒂夫总是……
Steve always...
不。
No.
不。
No.
我觉得你说得有道理。
I think that's a fair point.
我是说，我们正在调查。
I mean, we're we're looking into.
我只是说那是他们的最高数字。
I'm just saying that was their top line number.
史蒂夫，很高兴见到你。
Steve, great to see you.
我觉得我没有添加任何……
I don't think I added any any...
确实。
Did.
我没看凯伦。
I don't looking at Karen.
没看到……
Don't see...
感觉
Feeling
我
I
听说你要来，我们都很高兴
was happy when we heard you were coming in
今天亲自来了。
person today.
谢谢。
Thanks.
我们知道。
Know we did.
我们在12:30的电话里讨论过这件事。
We talked about it on the call at 12:30.
我们现在都更
We're all more
困惑了，比我刚来的时候还困惑。
confused now than I was when I came in.
好吧，你并不糊涂……
Well, you're not confused...
你根本没在听。
You're not paying attention.
我们往往
We tend
会给人那种感觉。
to have that effect on people.
谢谢。
Thanks.
耐克股价盘后大跌。
Shares of Nike tumbling after hours.
公司公布的盈利好于预期，但营收未达预期，中国销售额大幅下滑。
The company posting better than expected earnings, but missing on revenue, seeing a steep drop in its China sales.
电话会议正在进行中。
Conference call is underway.
CNBC的布兰登·戈麦斯带来了详细报道。
CNBC's Brandon Gomez got the details.
布兰登。
Brandon.
你好，梅丽莎。
Hey there, Melissa.
电话会议开始后，股价收复了部分跌幅。
Shares recouping some of that loss the call started.
每股收益确实超出了预期5美分。
EPS did beat by 5¢.
营收未达预期，为112.1亿美元。
Revenue was a miss coming in at 11,210,000,000.
这是两年来首次营收未达预期。
That's the first revenue miss in exactly two years.
北美市场略好于预期。
North America slightly ahead of expectations.
不过中国市场的营收仍然是个挑战，表现疲软。
China revenue though, the continued challenge coming in light.
耐克表示计划在那里“重新构想”市场。
Nike saying it plans to, quote, reimagine the market there.
耐克预计2027年全球营收将下降高个位数百分比，而此前预期是下降2.3%。
Nike sees revenue for 2027 across the globe declining high single digits versus the 2.3 decline that was expected.
每股收益预期在1.15美元到1.35美元之间，考虑到本季度超出预期5美分，这个预期相当疲弱。
And then EPS expectation between a dollar 15 and a dollar 35, which is fairly weak given the 5¢ beat this quarter.
首席执行官埃利奥特·希尔德表示，我们还有更多工作要做，特别提到了运动服、乔丹品牌和大中华区。
CEO Elliot Hildo saying, we have more work to do, highlighting sportswear, the Jordan brand, Greater China.
此外，耐克还宣布对其运营模式进行重大调整，这项战略被称为PACE。
Now part of that set out as Nike also announces major changes to its operating model, the strategy called PACE.
他们表示将现代化供应链，在印度建立园区，重组地理结构，并逐步精简员工队伍，相关决策将从2027年开始。
They say they're gonna modernize its supply chain, establish a campus in India, reorganizing its geographic structure, and restructuring its workforce with fewer roles over time with decisions on those impacted roles beginning in 2027.
股价再次从6%的跌幅低点回升，但仍然处于下跌状态。
Shares again, off those 6% drop lows, but still down.
好的，布兰登。
Alright, Brandon.
谢谢你。
Thank you.
布兰登·戈麦斯。
Brandon Gomez.
我其实挺惊讶的，股价没有因为指引再跌6%，毕竟布兰登提到本季度业绩超预期5%。
I'm actually surprised that the shares didn't go back down 6% on the guidance given that 5% beat as Brandon highlighted.
听起来他们谈的是效率问题，但他们应该谈的是品牌知名度。
It sounds like what they're talking about is a productivity thing when they should be talking about like brand awareness.
他们应该重新找回耐克五六年前的那种感觉。
Like they got read, like recapture what Nike was, you know, five or six years ago.
所以他们现在是在找一些可以微调的地方，让数字更好看。
That's so that they're looking at things that they can sort of tweak around the edges to get numbers better.
但我觉得他们其实也在面对更大的问题。
But then they're looking at the bigger problem, I think.
而且达娜·特尔西这位传奇人物稍后会来讨论这个话题，但哪里会……
And Dana Telsey legend is going to be on to talk about this later, but where would...
他们今天收盘价创下了十三年来的新低。
They closed at a thirteen year low today.
现在交易价格显然更低，这让我们回到了2012年时的水平。
It's trading now obviously lower, which takes us back to the levels we last saw in 2012.
所以估值就别看了。
So throw valuation out the window.
这显然是耐克……
This is obviously a Nike...
在我看来，这是耐克特有的问题。
In my opinion, a Nike specific problem.
不过积极的一面是，北美营收超出了预期，很多分析师说，这就是你开始看到复苏迹象的地方。
What was positive, though, North American revenue beat, and a lot of analysts say that that's where you're gonna see the seeds of the turnaround start to bloom.
我们就用这个比喻吧。
We're gonna use that analogy.
但我觉得你真的需要继续看到这一点。
But I I think you really need to continue to see that.
因为现在他们的起点已经很低了，但还是达不到那个目标。
Because at this point, they're coming on such a low bar and they still aren't able to hit that.
所以是的，你确实在仔细分析这些数字，想说，好吧，在这个领域，也许这是个亮点，但我觉得人们已经期待这个很久了。
So yes, you're like really digging through the numbers here to say, okay, well, in this one area, like, maybe this is the bright spot, but I think people have been looking for this for a while.
我的意思是，他们已经被移出标普500了。
I mean, they're no longer in the S and P 500.
你继续看到股价下跌，我觉得你需要看到某种新产品带来的动力，能真正提高他们的实际收益。
You're continuing to see this price action go down, and I think you need to see some sort of some sort of new product momentum that's gonna increase their actual earnings.
在没看到这些之前，我不确定我们是否真的到了那个转折点。
And until you see that, I don't know if we're quite there for for the turnaround story thus far.
这确实是个转折，但关键在变化的速度，或者说转折的速度。
It's it's a turnaround, but, it's the rate of change or the rate of turnaround.
所以北美市场表现更好。
And so North America is better.
毛利率更好了。
The gross margin is better.
这些是我们真正希望看到变化的地方，但宏观环境并没有好转。
These are things that we would have really wanted to see change on, but the macro is not better.
而且中国仍然是一个重大的不确定因素和压力点，而且和五年前相比，竞争格局也大不相同了。
And and China is still a major overhang and uncertainty and, you know, different than five years ago too, is a competitive landscape.
另外，不管我们当时有没有意识到，我们正处在运动休闲服饰有史以来最鼎盛的时期，而耐克就是有史以来最伟大的运动休闲品牌。
Also, were embarking upon, whether we knew it or not, the greatest period ever for athleisure and the greatest athleisure brand of all time.
但短期内你不会有这样的机会了。
And you're just not gonna have that in the near term.
我觉得这反而创造了机会。
I think it sets up for an opportunity.
我觉得现在可以考虑买入耐克了，而且它的风险已经大大降低了。
I think you could be picking at Nike here, and I think it's largely been derisked.
但是，你知道，从38跌到35，已经跌了18%了，而那时候我还觉得它看起来更好呢。
But, you know, the slippage from 38 down to 35, you've already lost 18% here, and that's when I thought it looked better too.
好的。
Alright.
现在我们来看一下伊朗的最新动态。
Let's get now to the latest developments on Iran.
伊蒙·贾维茨对《华尔街日报》的这篇报道有更多了解，报道称美国正在加强其中东的军事存在。
Eamon Javertz has some more on this Wall Street Journal report that The US is boosting its military presence in The Middle East.
伊蒙？
Eamon?
梅丽莎，这份报道是今天下午早些时候由《华尔街日报》发布的。他们报道说，五角大楼正在派遣西奥多·罗斯福号航母及其航母打击群前往中东，同时还有一批海军陆战队舰船，这将使该地区的兵力增加约一万人。
This report coming out earlier this afternoon, Melissa, from the Journal, they're reporting that the Pentagon is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East alongside a slew of Marine Corps ships which will boost the number of troops in the region by about 10,000.
所以这是显著的额外军事能力。
So that's a significant additional military capability.
《华尔街日报》报道称，有迹象表明特朗普总统已告诉顾问，他打算在11月底恢复轰炸。
The Journal reporting that they have an indication that President Trump has told advisers that he intends to resume bombing in November toward the end of the month.
那当然会是在中期选举之后。
That would, of course, put it after the midterm elections.
所以，在军事集结方面，这是值得关注的一点。
So something to watch there in terms of the potential military buildup.
当然，目前还不清楚罗斯福号到达时，该地区现有的航母力量是否会留下，或者届时是否会有一艘或多艘航母被轮换。
Of course, it's unclear if the existing carrier capability that's in the region would stay when the Roosevelt gets there or whether one or more of those carriers would be relieved at that time.
所以我们会持续关注。
So we'll keep an eye on that.
与此同时，今天下午我们看到总统在社交媒体上为自己关于这场战争持续时间的预测辩护。
Meanwhile, we saw the president on social media this afternoon, defending, his prediction about the length of time for this war.
他说，我多次说过，要消除伊朗的核威胁需要四到六周，而我一个晚上就做到了。
He said, I stated numerous times that it would take four to six weeks to get rid of the Iranian nuclear threat and I did it in one night.
剩下的时间只是为了确保它保持现状。
The rest of the time is just to make sure it stays that way.
所以，总统因为做出那个承诺而受到批评者的很多指责，你知道，就是四到六周的军事行动。
So the president has taken a lot of heat from his critics for making that promise, you know, four to six weeks military engagement.
现在，我们就在这里。
Now here we are.
战争从二月份就开始了。
The war started in February.
现在都到九月或十月了，信不信由你，战争还在继续。
Here we are in September or October now, believe it or not, and the war is ongoing.
所以他极力想表明他已经取得了这场胜利，现在只是在努力维持这个局面，梅丽莎。
So he's at pains to suggest that he already achieved this victory, and now he's just trying to maintain it, Melissa.
好的。
Alright.
伊蒙，谢谢你。
Eamon, thank you.
伊蒙·贾伯斯，我们确实看到了那份报告对油价和收益率的影响。
Eamon Jabbers, we did see a reaction on that report in oil as well as in yields.
收益率的变动有点温和，但你肯定能在十年期收益率上看到。
The the move in yields was a little bit muted, but you did see it for sure in the ten year yield.
大约上升了三个基点，布伦特原油也走高了一些。
You moved up about three basis points and and Brent moved higher
也一样。
as well.
有一种观点认为。
There is a school of thought.
虽然不是共识，但大选后局势可能会升级。
It's not consensus that post election, things could actually escalate
而不是缓和，我觉得目前的市场还没有反映这一点。
Not deescalate, which I don't think is priced into where we are right now.
但话虽如此，在我看来，这些能源股仍然值得关注。
But with all that said, these energy stocks are still in play, in my opinion.
我觉得不会涨得太远。
I don't think you run too far.
我同意关于能源股的观点，而且……
I agree on the energy stocks, and it's...
我也不确定。
I don't know.
我……
I...
这个说法……
That statement is...
这个说法真的很难自圆其说。
It's sort of hard to really square that that statement.
如果问题真的解决了，嗯。
If it if it is solved Mhmm.
那，你知道，是的。
Then, you know Yeah.
那我们为什么还要这么做？
Why do we need to do this?
但我还是想长期持有能源股，这是肯定的。
But but I still wanna stay long energy as well, for sure.
达蒙说的一点我觉得很重要，就是这会不会减轻其他航空公司的压力？
One thing that Damon said that I think is important is is this relieving other carriers?
这难道不是升级吗？
Is this not an escalation?
这只是在换团队而已。
This is just swapping out the team.
接下来，有消息激发了华尔街的一些看涨观点，分析师认为可能还有更多上涨空间，以及我们的交易员如何操作这只股票。
Coming up, news inspiring some bullish calls on Wall Street why analysts think there could be even more gains ahead, and how our traders are playing the name.
另外，对Airbnb来说，这个九月可不值得纪念，股价下跌了两位数，CEO对它在行业中的作用，或者说AI的作用，说了些什么，以及股价能否从这里反弹。
Plus, it was not a September to remember for Airbnb shares dropping double digits with the CEO had to say about its role or AI's role, I should say, in the industry and whether the stock can rebound from here.
别走开。
Don't go anywhere.
《快钱》马上回来。
Fast Money is back in two.
CNBC变革者，聚焦那些勇于创新、大胆领导并正在改变商业的女性。
CNBC Changemakers, spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly, and are transforming business.
你认识正在改写未来的人吗？
Do you know someone who is rewriting the future?
2027年榜单的提名现在已经开始，请访问changemakersnominations.cnbc.com提交。
Nominations for the twenty twenty seven list are open now at changemakersnominations.cnbc.com.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
安森美和Synaptics盘后股价双双上涨。
Onsemi and Synaptics both rising after hours.
两家公司修订了六月份首次宣布的合并协议。
The company revising their merger agreement first announced in June.
安森美将以每股123美元的价格收购，总价值57亿美元。
On semi will pay a $123 a share for a total value of $5,700,000,000.
这比之前的70亿美元有所下降。
That is down from 7,000,000,000.
Synaptics表示，其董事会仍一致投票支持这笔交易。
Synaptics says its board still unanimously voted in support of this deal.
另外，Meta今天表现不错，德意志银行将其加入新资金名单，称Muse的发布标志着丰富产品周期的开始，并为长期投资者提供了有吸引力的机会。
Meanwhile, call the day on Meta, Deutsche Bank adding the Saussure's fresh money list saying Muse launch represents the beginning of a rich product cycle and an attractive opportunity for long term investors.
他们接着说，人工智能延长了广告增长的持久性。
They go on to say AI extends the durability of ad...
广告增长的持久性。
Of advertising growth.
Meta的股价在过去两个月里上涨了30%，就是涨了30%。
Shares of Meta up 30% in just the last two months, so up 30%.
你在这里再加点。
You add more here.
这对你来说是新鲜资金吗？
Is it fresh money to you?
我觉得这更像是安全的资金，而且我们也看到了这只股票的周期性。
I I think it's safer money, and and I think we've seen also just cycles with the stock.
我的意思是，我得说这……
I mean, I have to say it's it's...
有些是跟股市有关，有些是跟公司有关。
Some of it's just about stock market, some of it's about the company.
我的意思是，基本面发生了变化，这是我们经常讨论的关于他们以及他们的……
I mean, the fundamentals changed in what we talk about all the time for them and their...
一些同行的情况，但肯定对Meta来说，自由现金流的故事已经不如从前了。
Some of their peers, but definitely for Meta, which is that the free cash flow story is not what it was.
估值故事可能更好，但是……
The valuation story is probably better, but it...
它是否值得一个稍低的倍数？
Does it deserve a slightly lower multiple?
我不太确定。
I'm I'm not sure.
我是真心觉得，MuseSense至少让商业化这块真正动起来了。
I I I do love the fact that MuseSense, at least, the ball moving forward towards monetization in real ways.
我的意思是，你开始像沃尔玛这样的合作伙伴，让你的代理去执行……
I mean, you start lining up partners like Walmart to have your agents go out and cut...
我的意思是，你知道的，这是实实在在的。
I mean, you know, it's real.
所以我觉得我们之前说的那些传统巨头，不管是微软、谷歌还是苹果，我们一直在反复讨论，他们的核心业务可能只会变得更好。
And so I think what we've said about legacy players and whether it's Microsoft or Google or Apple, we're having this conversation over and over again that their core business might be only enhanced.
未来是不是有更大的蛋糕，我觉得这是关于AI最大的争论点。
Whether there's a bigger pie going forward is the big, I think, debate about AI, period.
我同意这个看法。
I agree with that.
核心业务可能会更好。
The core business might be better.
也许这一切都很好。
Maybe this is all great.
不过，这些预期已经反映在价格里了。
This is a lot priced in, though.
我是说，过去六周的涨幅真是惊人。
I mean, the move in the last six weeks is just extraordinary.
所以这篇文章提到，明年的市盈率可能达到25倍，也就是说股价会涨到800多美元。
So this piece is talking about getting a 25 multiple for next year, you know, so taking it into the 8 hundreds plus.
新资金的话，我就不确定了。
Fresh money, I don't know.
我觉得我们接下来会看到更多让人印象深刻的智能体，是的。
I think we're we're gonna see some more agents out there that are gonna be impressive in Yeah.
我觉得短期内是这样。
I think the near term.
所以如果……
And so if...
我会再等等。
I I would wait.
不过我是看多的。
I'm long though.
股价对此没有变化，我觉得这不是个好兆头。
Stock was unchanged on the back of this, which I don't think is a great sign.
它从之前的高点回落了大概8%，正好涨到了之前的历史高点。
It's come off, what, 8% ish from the prior high we just made, traded right up to the prior all time high.
就像凯伦刚才说的，它已经涨了很多了。
As Karen just said, it's had a huge move.
Facebook 现在已经不是一直直线上升或下降了，所以也不会是那样。
It has not been a straight line up or down in Facebook now for quite some time, so it's not going to be.
我觉得你会得到一个更好的入场点，我给你个数字。
I think you're gonna get a better entry point, and I'll give you a number.
我觉得 6.65 美元、6.70 美元是最近低点和几周前高点的 50% 回撤位。
I think $6.65, $6.70 is a 50% retracement of this recent low and this high we saw a couple weeks ago.
考特尼，你是进场还是等待？
Courtney, you get in or you wait?
我们持有它。
We own it.
我觉得你应该继续持有。
I think you want to continue to own it.
我现在不会在这里投入新的资金。
I'm not adding fresh money here.
我同意你的看法。
I agree with you.
我觉得现在市场已经消化了很多利好的消息。
I think there's been so much positivity that's been priced in.
这种智能体AI，它会是人工智能的下一个阶段。
This agentic AI, it is going to be the next phase of artificial intelligence.
我还在质疑，他们是不是最终的赢家？
I'm still questioning, are they the winner?
他们现在确实有先发优势，但市场上有很多竞争对手正在涌现。
They're getting the first mover advantage right now, but there's so many competitors who are coming out there.
他们可能会赢，但我认为现在宣布胜利还为时过早。
And they may be the winner of it, but I do think it's too early to to claim victory.
所以基于这个原因，我会持有它。
So I think for that reason, I'd own it.
我不会在那里追加新的资金。
I'm not adding new money there.
接下来，Airbnb的入住体验引发关注，九月份发布的消息让股价大幅波动，CEO布莱恩·切斯基谈到了新的人工智能功能，以及这些功能如何可能重振股价。
Coming up, checking in to Airbnb, the launch of news rattling rattling the stock in September with CEO Brian Chesky had to say new AI features about new AI features and how they could revive shares.
另外，我们还在关注耐克的股价，一位顶级零售分析师对这家陷入困境的运动鞋巨头给出了最新看法。
Plus, we're keeping an eye on Nike shares with a top retail analyst season store for the beaten down sneaker giant.
您正在收看的是《快钱》节目，直播地点是时代广场的纳斯达克市场现场，广告之后马上回来。
You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square back right after this.
人工智能正在改变我们的工作、生活和领导方式。
AI is here transforming how we work, live, and lead.
我采访的这些女性并没有在等待未来。
And the women I talked to aren't waiting for the future.
她们正在塑造未来。
They're shaping it.
我是朱莉娅·博尔斯滕，CNBC的高级媒体与科技记者。
I'm Julia Borsten, senior media and tech correspondent at CNBC.
这里是CNBC的“变革者”节目，在这里，我与那些在人工智能重塑世界之际引领商业变革的女性领袖对话。
This is CNBC Changemakers, where I talk with the female leaders transforming business as AI reshapes the world.
欢迎收听并关注CNBC的《变革者》节目，关于在人工智能时代引领潮流的女性领导者，你可以在任何播客平台上找到我们。
Follow and listen to CNBC Changemakers, women leading in the age of AI, wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
今天早上，爱彼迎的首席执行官布莱恩·切斯基参加了《Squawk Box》节目，谈论公司平台上的新功能。
Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky joins Squawk Box this morning to talk about new features on the company's platform.
我们每年会尝试进行几次大的更新。
A couple times a year, we try to make some big updates.
今天，我们宣布几项新功能，首先是从真正的人工智能搜索开始。
Today, we're announcing a few, starting with really AI search.
我们现在有了人工智能自然语言搜索。
So we now have AI natural language search.
你可以输入完整的句子，然后这些句子会转化为过滤后的搜索，自动加载爱彼迎的所有不同筛选条件。
You can type in complete sentences, and then those sentences can turn into filtered searches where it preloads all your different filters for Airbnb.
我们还有一个人工智能比较功能。
We have, an AI comparison feature.
你知道，我们还有很多其他很酷的功能。
You can, you know, we have a number of other really cool features.
我们有社交连接功能。
We have social connections.
现在你可以和朋友们建立联系。
So now you can connect with your friends.
以火攻火。
Fighting fire with fire.
这个月股价因为担心像Muse这样的AI代理会取代Airbnb等旅行网站而受到打击。
Shares have been hit over the month on fears that AI agents like Muse could replace travel sites like Airbnb.
Airbnb是不是曾经在你的……
Wasn't Airbnb in one of your
很多年前了。
Many years ago.
我忘了……
I forget what...
那是你记错了吗？
Was that in your clam?
不是。
No.
不是记错了，蒂姆。
Was not in my clam, Tim.
是别的事。
It was in something.
不记得了。
Don't remember.
好吧。
Okay.
凯伦提起这个，是因为我还能记得一些事情。
Karen brought this up because I do remember things still.
你可能会觉得，在某些方面，AI 对像 Airbnb 这样的公司其实是有好处的，我觉得他说的就是这个意思。
You would think that in some ways AI would be actually a benefit for a company like Airbnb, and I think that's sort of the point that he's making.
而且我觉得它的问题不在AI。
And I don't think it has a AI problem.
我觉得它的问题是估值问题，这也是为什么你会看到这么大幅度的抛售。
I think it has a valuation problem, and I think that's one of the reasons you're seeing this pretty significant sell off.
但总有一个价位，我觉得Airbnb会变得有吸引力。
But there's going to be a level where I think Airbnb gets interesting.
我只是觉得不是160美元这个价位。
I just don't think it's at $160
Courtney，你怎么看？
Courtney, what do think?
我很难认同AI会直接吞噬所有这些行业的说法。
I I have trouble with the argument that AI is just gonna cannibalize all these industries.
我觉得最终他们和房主之间是有关系的，对吧？
I think, like, ultimately, they have the relationships with the homeowners, right?
即使你的AI代理在用他们，最终还是那个平台在真正预订这些房源。
That even if your muse, your agentic AI agents are utilizing them, it's still that platform who has to actually be booking them.
所以我觉得从长远来看，这最终是件好事。
So I think ultimately it's gonna be a good thing in the long run.
我同意这更多是从估值角度来看，但如果这是理由，那你就不是因为这个在卖。
I agree with this more of a evaluation standpoint, but if that's the argument, that's not why you're selling this.
我觉得长期来看是件好事。
I think long term it's a good thing.
我不觉得社交功能会像这样——嘿，哥们，我正住在附近一个超酷的地方。
I don't think the social features of, hey, guy, I'm staying over at this cool pad down the road.
别，别说了。
Don't don't talk.
我才不会那样说话，Tim。
I don't speak like that, Tim.
好吧，也许我确实会。
Okay, well, maybe I did.
不，他太容易上钩了。
No, he was too easy.
我明白这个。
I'll see this.
我肯定不会用我的新社交功能来联系你，但我觉得这不是重点。
I'm definitely not gonna reach out to you now on my new social features, but I don't think that's the reason for it.
华尔街有很多分析师都做得不错，他们指出并强调，那些AI代理也会通过同样的门户和载体，也就是通过Airbnb来运作。
There's been multiple analysts on the street that have done a nice job saying and outlining the fact that those same AI agents are going to go through the same, essentially, portals and the same vehicles, they're gonna go through Airbnb.
所以我觉得这是个机会。
So I I think it's an opportunity.
我……
I...
我不确定非得现在做，因为我担心整个旅游和休闲行业的宏观环境。
I'm not sure it has to be right now because I I worry about the macro around travel and leisure, period.
我觉得这和股价的波动有关。
And I think that has something to do with the stocks move.
不过，布莱恩·切斯基上个季度提到，这对他们的业务帮助很大。
Brian Chesky, though, last quarter, they talked about how how helpful it was for their business.
所以我觉得我们还会看到更多这样的情况。
And so I think we're gonna see more of that to come.
所以我……
So I...
我同意你的看法。
And I agree with you.
那种关系很难被破坏……
That relationship is hard to wreck...
复制。
Replicate.
接下来，零售分析师Dana Telsey将加入我们，深入分析耐克的业绩数据，以及随着假日购物季临近，她对耐克股票和更广泛的零售行业的预期。
Coming up, retail analyst Dana Telsey joins to dig into Nike's numbers, what she expects from the stock in the broader retail sector with the holiday shopping season just around the corner.
《快钱》节目两分钟后回来。
Fast Money's back in two.
错过了《快钱》的精彩瞬间？
Missed a moment of fast?
随时随地都能收听我们。
Catch us anytime on the go.
关注《Fast Money》播客。
Follow the Fast Money Podcast.
广告之后马上回来。
We're back right after this.
欢迎回到《Fast Money》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
股市在10月初扭转早盘跌势，收于上涨。
Stocks are racing early losses to start October in the green.
标普500指数上涨0.2%，结束了连续三天的下跌。
The S and P up two tenths of a percent, snapping a three day losing streak.
道琼斯和纳斯达克指数均小幅上涨。
The Dow and Nasdaq, both with small gains.
美光科技股价从下跌中反弹，收盘上涨3%。
Shares of Micron climbing out of the red to end the day 3% higher.
这家存储芯片制造商昨晚盈利超出预期，并发布了强劲的业绩指引，数据中心收入大幅增长。
The memory chipmaker beating earnings estimates last night and issuing strong guidance as data center revenue jumps.
与此同时，咨询巨头埃森哲股价飙升近16%，创下历史最佳单日表现，此前该公司盈利和营收均超出预期。
Meantime, consulting giant Accenture surging nearly 16% for its best day ever after the company topped earnings and revenue estimates.
它还创下了大额客户预订的纪录，并提高了季度股息。
It also posted record big ticket client bookings and increased its quarterly dividend.
通用汽车股价上涨3%，尽管第三季度新车销量下降了5.5%，电动汽车销售放缓。
GM climbing 3% even as new vehicle sales fell five and a half percent in the third quarter as sales of EVs slow down.
另外，标普500指数新增了两家公司：云服务公司Twilio将于周二取代华纳兄弟，而生物技术公司Bylor在从Corteva分拆后于今天被纳入。
And couple new additions to the S and P 500 cloud company, Twilio, will replace Warner Brothers on Tuesday, while biotech company, Bylor, was added today after being spun off from Corteva.
我们再来快速看一下耐克的股价。
Let's get another quick check on shares of Nike.
该股下跌约6%，基本上又回到了那个位置，此前报告显示其在中国的业务表现疲软。
That stock, tumbled about 6% and is basically backed down there after reporting weakness in China.
总体销售额，抱歉，未达到预期。
Overall sales, excuse me, that missed estimates.
零售分析师达娜·特尔西，特尔西咨询集团的负责人，现在加入我们，带来更多分析。
Retail analyst Dana Telsey, who runs Telsey Advisory Group joins us here for more.
达娜，很高兴你能来。
Dana, great to have you with us.
谢谢你们的邀请。
Thank you for having me.
这里有很多利好和利空因素。
There are a lot of puts and takes here.
北美市场表现更好。
North America was better.
中国市场表现更差。
China was worse.
考虑到每股收益超出预期5美分，业绩指引并不算好。
The guidance was sort of not good considering a 5¢ beat.
你对此的总体看法是什么？耐克的转型进展如何？
What what's your overall take on this and where Nike's turnaround is?
有几件事。
Couple things.
新来的首席财务官，这是他第一次主持财报电话会议，也是公司第一次设定全年业绩指引。
You have a new CFO, his first call, first time they ever set annual guidance.
所以他定了个目标，会不会把业绩预期压得很低？
So he put a bar, could a kitchen sink it?
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
北美市场仍然保持增长，但这个品牌还在继续调整。
North America is still positive, but you have a brand that is continuing its reset.
我们知道这个品类一直表现疲软。
We know that the category has been weak.
我们也知道，无论是时尚潮流还是其他什么场合，消费趋势都在发生变化。
We know that there has been a shift to whether it is fashion or any time of a cape...
就是那种场合下的需求。
Type of occasion where that is there.
现在对耐克没什么好期待的。
There's nothing to expect right now from Nike.
我觉得虽然指引比预期差，但市场上流传的预期数字其实也没好到哪去，所以差距不大。
I think the thing is while the guidance was worse, the whisper numbers that were out there, it wasn't that much worse than the whisper numbers.
毛利率和北美业务都比预期要好。
The gross margin was better and North America was better.
所以没什么好担心的。
There's not much to expect.
我的会议下周四开。
My conference is next Thursday.
耐克会来参加。
Nike is going to be there.
他们能来本身就是个好信号，因为他们想拆解这些问题，而且问题确实不少。
The fact that they are even showing up, take as a good sign because they want to unpack the pieces and there is a lot of pieces.
他们11月还有个投资者日。
They have an investor day coming up in November.
如果他们想展示出有改善的可能，为什么还要做这些事情呢？
Why are they doing all these things if they want to show that there can be improvement?
我们还没到那一步。
We are not there yet.
转型需要很长时间。
Turnarounds take a lot of time.
我有一个主题，就是传统品牌现代化。
I have this theme of legacy modernizing.
这必须成为一个现代化的品牌。
This needs to be a brand that modernizes.
有道理。
Fair enough.
我是说，也许他们的库存现在不是问题，虽然还是有点问题。
I mean, maybe their inventory is not a problem now, although still somewhat problematic.
我想问你一个问题。
I'll ask you this.
这是一个市值500亿美元的品牌吗？
Is this a name, $50,000,000,000 market cap?
有些激进投资者会说，你知道吗？
Some activist says, you know what?
耐克就在那里。
Nike's out there.
这可能是我们介入的一个有趣机会。
This could be an interesting thing to sort of insert ourselves in.
我是说，这不是不可能的事。
I mean, that's not out of the realm of possibility.
不是不可能的事。
Not out of the realm of possibility.
这显然是一个大品牌。
It's obviously a huge name.
我们见过激进投资者在其他零售品牌上行动。
We've seen activists in other retail names.
很多时候，这并不会成功。
A lot of times, it doesn't work out
对他们来说。
for them.
所以我们认为这是一个有故事的品牌，但现在的竞争和以往完全不同了。
So we think of this as a storied brand, but the competition now is very different than it has ever been.
所以想回到那些传奇的估值水平，看起来不太可能。
So the idea of getting back to ever those storied valuations seems not likely.
当你……
When you...
你看市场份额，他们已经失去了市场份额。
And you look at the market share, they've lost market share.
那些新品牌，比如On、HOKA这些，抢走了很多市场份额。
The the new newer names like the Ons, the HOKAs of the world, they've taken a lot of market share.
同时，当你区分生活方式和性能时，确实有很大不同。
At the same time, when you are looking at lifestyle versus performance, there is a real difference.
还能回到那个估值吗？
Can you ever get back to that valuation?
你得从现在的起点出发。
You have to set off where you are now.
你不能回到过去，你需要看到增长加速。
You can't go to the past and you need to see accelerating growth rates.
增长加速才能给你那个倍数。
Accelerating growth rates will give you the multiple.
现在你没有这个，而且短期内也别指望。
You don't have that now, and you can't expect that to come in the near term.
Dana，我们来开启假日季吧。
Dana, let's kick off the holiday season.
Guy 喜欢……
Guy loves...
我是说，Fratell Guy 现在就是圣诞节，他会有一个大场面。
I mean, Fratell Guy is Christmas right now, and he'll have a big spot
让他忙个不停。
on his toes.
我们得指望这个。
We're gonna count on.
但是，显然……
But but obviously...
你打算唱什么歌？
What song are you gonna sing?
沃尔玛、塔吉特和亚马逊，怎么选？
Walmart versus Target versus Amazon.
我的意思是，在这里选一匹你的马，然后把它放到我们之前讨论的背景和估值中去，因为对于投资者来说，进入这个交易时，显然有赢家和输家。
I mean, pick pick your horse here and and drop it into the context of where we've been and on valuation because they're obviously clear winners and losers just for investors in terms of where you're getting into this trade.
总的来说，当我想到假日季时，看看我们过去几周听到的消息。
I think overall, when I think about the holiday season, look what we've heard over the past couple weeks.
各个会议都在讨论海平面，我仔细看了他们说的每一句话。
Sea levels were talking at all the conferences, and I went through every single commentary that they talked about.
那个词，字母A，加速。
The word a, the letter a, acceleration.
他们提到了这个。
They talked about it.
就是那个。
That one.
挺有意思的。
It was interesting.
加速，不管是维多利亚的秘密的销售，还是Five Below的客流量增长，还是像Reformation那样的新店开张。
Acceleration whether it is Victoria's Secret and sales, whether it is customer traffic gains in Five Below, whether it is new store openings and like a reformation.
你能想到的，都有所改善。
You name it, there has been improvement.
所以感觉即使面临利率、通胀、油价这些不利因素，它们都还在。
So it feels like even though the headwinds of whether it is interest rates, inflation, gasoline prices, they are all out there.
但说到沃尔玛和塔吉特，塔吉特有新意。
But what you talk about with Walmart and Target, there's newness at Target.
沃尔玛的优势在于提供实惠的商品。
Walmart has the benefit of value offering.
别忘了还有那些折扣零售商。
And let's not forget the off pricers.
罗斯商店连续实现两位数的同店销售增长，这真是让人不得不爱。
You gotta love the double digit comps at Ross stores that they've been delivering.
他们以前从未有过两位数的同店增长，现在却做到了。
They've never delivered double digit comps and you've got them now.
为什么？
Why?
因为重新调整了。
A reset.
传统业务在现代化。
Legacy modernizing.
谁能想到罗斯现在会有这样的广告宣传？
Who would have seen the advertising that you're having now at Ross?
而且他们还要在曼哈顿开一家店。
And they're gonna be opening a store in Manhattan.
那会很有意思。
That's gonna be interesting.
现在你看消费者，我的意思是，消费者信心指数一直都很糟糕。
Now when you look at the consumer, I mean, the the sentiment levels have been horrible.
虽然他们说消费水平并没有真正反映出这一点，但人们还是在花钱。
Though they're saying the spending levels are not really indicative of that, but they're still getting out in spending.
但消费者确实出现了分化。
But there has been this bifurcation of the consumer.
高收入消费者的表现其实更好，而低收入消费者则不然。
You're seeing the higher incomes consumer is actually holding up better, and then there's the lower income consumer.
说到零售业，人们都在质疑，你是应该关注折扣零售商还是奢侈品牌零售商？
And when it comes to retail, people are questioning, should you be looking at your discount retailers or your luxury retailers?
我只是想问，随着年底临近，你怎么看待这个问题？
And I'm just questioning how you see that as we look into the end of the year here.
嗯，看看我们已经看到的一些……
Well, look at what we've seen some...
来自一些欧洲奢侈品零售商。
From some of the European luxury retailers.
他们的表现并不好。
They haven't performed well.
LVMH今年迄今下跌超过20%。
LVMH is down over 20% year to date.
两周后，我们将获得他们九月份季度的销售业绩。
In two weeks, we are going to get their sales results for the September quarter.
我们听到关于中国的消息，并不那么令人兴奋。
What we hear about China, not so exciting.
北美才是强势的地方，而欧洲消费者仍然疲软。
It is about North America's where there is the strength while the European consumer is still slow.
当我想到即将到来的假日季，这是一个挑剔的假日季，但如果你有新品，那就会有所不同。
When I think about overall the upcoming holiday season, it is a discerning holiday season, but discerning if you have got newness.
这才是能赢的关键。
That is what is going to win.
哪里有新意，哪里就最受关注。坦白说，低收入消费者在商品上的花费让人意外。
Wherever there is newness, that is where it is going to be the most interest and that lower income consumer frankly, is surprising people with the spend that they have on goods.
这确实让人意外，而且有更多资金涌入那些价值型品牌。
It just is surprising, and there's more flooding into the value names there.
你预计这种加速会持续吗？如果油价保持高位，维持现状，你的预测是怎样的？
Do you expect that sort of acceleration to continue, and how is your forecast if oil prices stay elevated, stay where they are?
如果利率和房贷利率保持不变，会有波动吗？
If interest rates and mortgage rates stay where they are, does it fluctuate?
总的来说，当
Overall, when
你考虑假日季销售时，去年我们增长了近6%。
you think about holiday season sales, last year we had nearly a 6% increase.
今年可能会低一到两个百分点，也许不是因为一直在进行的营销活动。
This year, we'll be at a point or two lower, maybe not because of the marketing that has been been going on.
我觉得可能会比去年稍微低一点，但不会低太多，因为高端市场和中产阶级消费者的支出仍然强劲。
I think it will be maybe a little bit lower than last year, but not that much because I still have the strength of the high end and I have the middle income consumer spending.
好的。
Okay.
最后一个问题，你在零售领域的首选是什么？
And last question, your top pick in the retail space.
总的来说，我觉得零售领域表现最好的是罗斯百货。
I think overall, when I think about what is working in the retail space, Ross Stores.
它确实表现不错。
It is working.
我觉得那里有更多的新鲜感，也有更多的推动力。
I think there is more newness there and more to drive it.
好的。
Alright.
达娜，很高兴见到你。
Dana, great to see you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
也很高兴见到你。
Great to see you too.
谢谢。
Thank you.
Dana Telsey，Telsey咨询集团。
Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group.
分析师中的拉什莫尔山。
Mount Rushmore of analysts.
不只是零售领域，而是
Not just retail, like the
所有分析师中的。
whole All analysts.
我会的。
I'll
把她也算进去吧。
throw her up there.
你看，罗斯百货的表现一直非常强劲。
Look, Ross Stores has been a monster.
我是说，你看看图表就知道了。
I mean, a chart up and you'll see.
可以说，这波涨势简直是直线飙升。
I mean, the move has been parabolic in a word.
如果说我有什么担心的话——当然我不是Dana Telsey——尽管同店销售数据这么好，估值还是有点偏高，不过估值这个问题还是可以理解的。
If there's one concern that I would have, and I'm not Dana Telsey, valuation is a little expensive here despite the comps being so good, but you can wrap your head around valuation.
这只股票看起来相当不错。
The stock looks pretty good.
我其实觉得，也许迪克体育用品……
I actually think maybe Dick's Sporting Goods...
耐克的一个问题就是直营业务表现疲软。
One of the things about Nike was that direct to consumer was weak.
批发业务表现更好。
Wholesale was better.
这对迪克体育用品来说是个好兆头。
That bodes well for Dick's Sporting Goods.
盖普是另一个例子，我知道达娜看好老海军复苏。
Gap is another place, and I know Dana likes the recovery at Old Navy.
我，我，我……
I I I...
听到低收入消费者这么有韧性，我很震惊，我只是想知道这种情况会持续多久。
I'm shocked to hear that the lower income consumer is as resilient as they are, I just wonder where that's gonna go.
顺便说一句，让我提前说声感恩节快乐。
By the let me get an early gobble gobble.
开始了。
Here we go.
已经开始了。
It's starting already.
现在是十月了。
It's October
其实我们有点晚了。
We're actually a little late to the game.
知道，这确实是个很实际的早餐。
Know, it's a very actual breakfast
就在附近。
around the corner.
接下来，我们来聊聊购房犹豫的问题，最近房贷利率飙升，30年期固定利率已经超过7.5%。
Coming up, home buying hesitation, we'll dig into the recent surge in mortgage rates with a thirty year fix topping 7.5%.
这对建筑商、贷款机构以及整个房地产行业的影响，还有快钱回报。
The impact it is having on builders, lenders, the whole housing trade, and fast money returns.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
根据Mortgage News Daily的新数据，房贷利率在昨天30年期达到7.6%后略有回落，这是近三年来的最高水平。
New data from Mortgage News Daily showing mortgage rates dropping back a little after the thirty year hit 7.6% yesterday, its highest in nearly three years.
戴安娜·奥莱克斯带来了详细报道。
Diana Oleks got the details here.
戴安娜？
Diana?
梅丽莎，你和我一样清楚，九月份对房地产市场来说很艰难。
Melissa, you know as well as I do, it has been a rough September for housing.
毫无疑问。
No question.
正如你所说，根据《抵押贷款新闻日报》的数据，三十年期固定利率今天确实回落了一点，到了7.54%。
The average rate on the thirty year fixed, as you said, did come back a little bit to 7.54% today according to Mortgage News Daily.
这仍然比一年前高出117个基点，而且比九月初就上升了65个基点。
That's still a 117 basis point jump from a year ago and a 65 basis point jump just from the start of September.
我知道我们已经把房屋建筑商批评得够多了，也知道你们中有些人喜欢家居装修零售商，有些人不喜欢。
Now I know we've already beat up the home builders to death here, and I know some of you like the home improvement retailers, some don't.
但让我们看看其他受影响的行业。
But let's take a look at other sectors here that get hit.
首先，房地产经纪人方面，Compass过去一个月下跌了近12%，eXp也下跌了9%。
For one, real estate agents, Compass is off close to 12% in the past month, and eXp down 9%.
Rocket Mortgage和United Wholesale本月也下跌了两位数，因为再融资和购房的抵押贷款需求都在大幅下降。
Rocket Mortgage and United Wholesale also down double digits for the month as mortgage demand just tanks on both refinancing and home buying.
别忘了Zillow一个月内下跌了超过17%。
And don't forget Zillow down over 17% in a month.
当然，住房是一个庞大的生态系统，包括房地产经纪人、抵押贷款经纪人、房屋翻新商、建筑商、园林绿化公司、游泳池等。
Now housing is, of course, a massive ecosystem of real estate agents, mortgage brokers, home remodelers, builders, landscaping companies, pools.
我可以一直列举下去。
I could go on and on.
但昨晚，我们自己的Jim Kramer说，由于利率上升，房地产市场已经“冻结”了。
But last night, our own Jim Kramer said housing was, quote, frozen because of higher interest rates.
所以，尽管我们的经济可能具有韧性，但房地产市场并不具有韧性。
So while we may have a resilient economy, we do not have a resilient housing market.
不过，Melissa，我还要再提一点。
But one more thing I'll throw at you, Melissa.
今天早上，摩根士丹利说托尔兄弟是个便宜货，很值得买。
This morning, Morgan Stanley said Toll Brothers was a bargain, a great buy.
它很便宜。
It's cheap.
来讨论一下吧。
Discuss.
好的，戴安娜，我们来讨论。
We shall, Diana.
谢谢你的任务。
Thank you for the assignment.
戴安娜·奥莱格。
Diana Oleg.
凯伦没忘记Zillow，因为它
And Karen is not forgetting Zillow because it's
在我的投资组合里。
in I her mean, it is in my portfolio.
我觉得它还没被纳入什么缩写里，但谁知道呢？
I don't think it's been in an acronym, but who knows?
也许明年吧。
Maybe next year.
我……
I...
你知道，平台……
You know, platform...
平台就像是一个线圈，如果我们开始看到成交量，那利润率会非常惊人，但显然我们现在还没看到。
The platform is, you know, a coil that if we start to see volume, just the margins of that is tremendous, but we are clearly not seeing Yeah.
戴娜还提到了那些经纪人。
Dana mentioned the the brokers also.
我的意思是，在这个行业的种种担忧中，还夹杂着对AI颠覆的恐惧。
I mean, there's also an AI disruption fear woven into that sort of stew of concerns over that sector.
如果你看看一些抵押贷款服务商和抵押贷款经纪人，他们看起来像是要倒闭了，但我觉得他们不会。
If if you look at some of the mortgage servicers and some of the mortgage brokers, they look like they're going out of business, and I don't think they are.
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