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NFL开赛时间到了。
It's NFL kickoff time.
独家NFL球队估值，与体育商业专家迈克尔·奥泽尼亚一起。
Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert, Michael Ozenia.
NFL是迄今为止最赚钱的联赛。
The NFL is by far the most profitable league.
NFL球队估值现在在cnbc.com/sport上。
NFL team valuations now on cnbc.com/sport.
从纽约市时代广场中心的纳斯达克市场现场直播。
Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square.
这里是《快钱》节目。
This is Fast Money.
今晚有什么值得关注的。
Here's what's untapped tonight.
今天市场可能面临三重威胁，引起了我们的注意，但股市基本没有理会这些担忧。
A potential triple threat to the markets grabbing our attention today, but stocks largely shrugging off concerns.
看来市场比我们担心的要更抗跌一些？
So is the market more resilient than we feared?
那接下来股市会怎么走呢？
And where do stocks go from here?
在区块链金融这块，我们会采访 OpenReserve 的首席执行官。他们刚刚获得了成立基于区块链银行的有条件批准。我们会聊聊他们的商业模式有什么不同，以及这会对你的资产产生什么影响。
In banking on blockchain, we'll talk to the CEO of OpenReserve, which just received conditional approval towards blockchain based bank, how he does business differently, and what it could mean for your money.
另外，受最新 AI 担忧情绪的影响，网络安全板块也出现了大幅上涨。
Plus, CyberSoc surge on the latest AI concerns.
诺和诺德在资本市场日活动前，是不是要放手一搏？
Is Novo throwing a Hail Mary ahead of its capital markets day?
还有Netflix押注直播橄榄球的新数据。
And new numbers from Netflix's big bet on live football.
上周四的那场比赛，能给投资者带来惊喜吗？
Will last Thursday's game score a touchdown for investors?
稍后我们会为大家详细介绍。
We'll get all the details later this hour.
我是Melissa Lee。
I'm Melissa Lee.
我现在在纳斯达克的B演播室为您现场报道。
Come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq.
今晚坐在桌前的有Tim Seymour、Carter Braxton Worth、Dan Nathan和Guy Adame。
On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Braxton Worth, Dan, Nathan, and Guy Adame.
我们先来看看今天本该让投资者承压的那三大动向。
And we start off with those three big moves that should have weighed on investors today.
基准十年期国债收益率在早盘阶段突破了关键的5%关口。
The benchmark ten year treasury yield crossing the key 5% level early in the session.
这是自2023年10月以来首次出现这种情况。
It was the first time that happened since October 2023.
这让对利率敏感的行业，比如房屋建筑商、金融股和公用事业股，都受到了冲击。
That took a bite out of rate sensitive sectors from homebuilders to financials to utilities.
油价也在上涨。
Oil prices also rising.
WTI原油收盘创下新高，每桶10.05美元，为5月18日以来的最高水平。
WTI hitting a high close, to $10.05 a barrel, the highest level since May 18.
当然，还有周末AI行业领袖发出的严厉警告。
And, of course, there was the stark warning from AI leaders over the weekend.
OpenAI和Anthropic的首席执行官都表示，由于安全风险，行业需要放慢脚步。
The CEOs of both OpenAI and Anthropic saying the industry needs to slow down due to safety risks.
这导致今天半导体股，尤其是存储芯片制造商股价大跌。
That sent semi stocks, especially memory makers, sinking today.
DRAM ETF迎来了近一个月来最糟糕的一天。
The DRAM ETF seeing its worst day in nearly a month.
SOX和SMH都创下了自七月以来的最差表现。
The SOX and the SMH both at their worst since July.
尽管有这些情况，市场整体表现还算稳健。
Despite all that, markets broadly held up fairly well.
主要指数均下跌了0.5%。
All major indices down half a percent.
那么，Sky，这一切说明了股市的韧性，还是可能存在的自满情绪呢？
So what does this all tell you about the resilience or maybe the complacency of stocks, Sky?
韧性这个词更贴切。
Resilience is the word.
我是说，自满也算一个词。
I mean, complacency is a word.
但我觉得，韧性才是关键。
Resilience, I think, is the word.
现在会是……
Now it will be...
如果你看到VIX指数超过20，那就不是自满了，顺便说一句，我觉得我们正在朝那个方向走。
Not be complacency if you see the VIX north of 20, which, by the way, I think we're headed towards.
今天它确实显示出一些活力，但这就是韧性，而韧性体现在标普500指数上，尽管我们谈论了这么多事情，它仍然距离历史高点只有几个百分点的距离。再说，如果你说十年期收益率达到5%，油价超过100美元，还有周末那些AI相关的头条新闻，我本来会相信今年这个时候指数会跌破7000点，但我们并没有。
It showed some signs of life today, but it's resilience, and resilience has come in the form of the S and P 500, which despite all the things we talk about, is still within a couple percent of an all time high, which again, if you had said ten year yields of 5%, oil north of 100, and all these all these other AI headlines over the weekend, I would have been convinced by this time this year would be below 7,000 and we're not.
但你刚才提到了SMH，我们简单说说。
But you mentioned the SMH quickly.
从七月中旬开始，这个板块就一直在悄悄走弱。
That has been very quietly rolling over since the middle of July.
这绝对值得关注。
That is absolutely worth watching.
你最近一直在提这个。
You've been mentioning that lately.
而且你看，从7月14号开始，它就一直没能摆脱这种相对落后的表现。
And and look, it is not been able to get out since July 14 of of its own way, that relative underperformance.
所以它一直在创相对新低。
So making new relative lows.
如果你在半导体行业，哪怕增长率只有一点点变化。
And if you're in the semiconductor space, even a small change in the rate of growth.
换句话说，这些三大巨头的公告，连埃隆都参与了，至少是认可了，至少听起来他同意放缓。
In other words, these announcements by the big three, even Elon was in on that, at least ratified it, at least sounded like he was on board with a slowing.
增长率放缓对这个行业影响巨大，因为整个板块，就连市盈率低于市场平均的英伟达，定价都基于超常增长。
A slowing on the rate of growth has enormous implications for a sector that even NVIDIA with a below market multiple, the entire space is priced for extraordinary growth.
要是你跟我聊聊市场对这件事的反应，AI增速稍微放缓一点，对股市来说可能反而是天大的好事。
Now if you talk to me about the market's reaction to this, a little slower growth in AI may be actually fantastic for the markets.
而且我……
And I...
你知道的，你看那个相关性，这对‘七巨头’意味着什么，对那些大盘股又意味着什么。
You know, you see the correlation, what that meant for mag seven, what it meant for market cap stocks.
我一听到说要把进程放慢，我就想到开支会减少。
When I hear about slowing the process down, I hear about less spending.
我听说债务融资的需求在减少。
I hear about less less need to raise debt.
如果你认为发行端压力很大，这对长期国债收益率曲线来说也可能是个利好。
That also could be positive for the long end of the treasury curve if you believe there's a lot of pressure in issuance.
所以整体节奏稍微放缓一点的话，从股票市场的角度来看，今天的情况并没有让我感到恐慌。
So if you slow the whole thing down a little bit, today doesn't really scare me from the equities perspective.
债券市场则是另一回事了，我觉得那边的变化速度比我们之前看到的要猛烈得多。
The bond market's another story, and and I I just think, the rate of change there is a lot more aggressive than we had seen.
收益率已经连续七个月上涨了。
It's seven straight months of higher yields.
这种情况自2011年以来就再没出现过。
We haven't seen this since 2011.
那是我们最后一次真正讨论主权债务危机，尤其是欧洲的那些危机。
That was the last time we were really talking about sovereign debt crises, especially those in Europe.
所以，债务问题才是当前的焦点。
So, debt's the story.
我觉得你说的这点，蒂姆，关于那七巨头，看起来确实有点偏防御性。
I think your point, Tim, about the mag 70, obviously, it looks a bit defensive here.
我看了看这个情况，心里想，市场上有花钱的，也有收钱的，对吧？
And I just look at this and I say to myself, there's spenders and there's takers, right?
目前这些花钱的大户，取决于数据中心那边的情况，还有我们在全国各地看到的这些禁令，我觉得这可能是之前一些安全方面问题的前兆。
And the spenders right now, depending upon what happens from a data center standpoint and these moratoriums that we're seeing all over the country, I think that was the precursor to some of the, you know, just the issues as it relates to safety.
对吧？
Right?
现在我们又开始讨论监管方面的来回拉扯了。
And now we have this kind of back and forth about regulation.
我觉得这几件事可能会真的拖慢支出步伐。
And I think those few things have the potential to really slow down the spending.
也许投资者愿意给他们一点信任，毕竟我们看到有些公司就是这样。Meta就是个很好的例子，大概一个半月前他们在最新财报电话会上宣布资本开支要回升时，股价反而被抛售了。
And maybe investors are willing to actually give them the benefit of the doubt because we've seen some of these companies, and Meta was a great example, when they announced their CapEx is going back, what, a month, month and a half ago on their latest call, the stock got punished.
但亚马逊那边就不一样了，AWS的利润率好于预期，支出情况也得到认可，股价就受到了追捧，对吧？
But on the Amazon side, when AWS saw better than expected, margins and then their spending and it got rewarded, right?
所以如果从另一边的‘索取者’角度想，那就是半导体行业。
So if I think about the takers on the other side of it, that is the semis.
还有存储芯片领域。
That is the memory.
看看目前的情况，我比较喜欢参考这两只ETF基金。
And if you just look at what's going on, I like to use these two ETFs.
其中一只是追踪‘MAGs’的，大家都知道它对应的是‘七巨头’。
One of them is the MAGs, and we know that that follows the MAG seven.
它一直在历史高位附近交易，你看……
That is trading very near its all time highs, and you look like it...
你一看，感觉它马上要突破了。但如果你看看DRAM板块，这里面可是些大牌，比如SK、美光、三星，那走势在我看来有点走坏了，对吧？
You look at it, it looks like it's about to break out, and then if you look at the DRAM, which is obviously some of the biggest names, it's SK, it's Micron, it's Samsung, and that thing looks somewhat broken to me, right?
所以至少那里的上涨动能已经结束了。
And so at least the momentum ended there.
不过看起来呢，结合Tim刚才提到的观点，我觉得市场完全可以在高位震荡，或者从历史高点稍微回落个两三个百分点，同时让那些我们几个月前还叫作‘泡沫股’的标的开始回调，然后资金再轮动到半导体——哦不，是软件板块，以及大市值的超大规模云厂商那里。
But it looks like, and to Tim's point, also, I think you can have a market that goes higher or at least kind of stays put down a couple percent from the all time highs or a few percent wherever it is and have some of those kind of, I dunno if you want to call them bubbly sort of names that we were calling them a few months ago roll over, and then you have this rotation into semi, or excuse me, into software, and then larger cap hyperscalers.
对，我觉得可以把它描述为
Yeah, I mean, would characterize it as
板块间快速轮动，但整体来看并没有产生净效应，这挺有意思的。
hyper rotation, and yet there's no net effect, and that's the curious thing.
我是说，从五月到现在，尽管波动很大，半导体板块的走势基本没变。
I mean, if you think about since May, the semiconductors are unchanged despite the huge volatility.
软件板块之前跌了大概百分之二十，在两三周的时间里，现在又全部涨回来了，但市场依然在不断换手。
Software's been down 20% sort of in a two, three period, and it's recovered it all, and yet still we churn.
我觉得最大的一个点，而且必须被视为积极的一点，就是你把每个数据点都看作正面或负面的话，市场对这次油价和利率的飙升消化得这么好，这本身就是个积极信号。
I think the big, and it has to be deemed as a positive, you put every data point as positive or negative, is the fact that the market has taken so well, this surge in oil and in rates.
实际上，我们周末花了很多时间，你知道，就在想，过去在十天内，也就是过去两周，油价上涨超过20%，而十年期国债收益率上涨了30个基点或更多的时候，历史上发生过什么。
In fact, we spent a good deal of the weekend, you know, just wondering, you know, what has happened in the past when on a ten day period, the past two weeks, oil has advanced more than 20%, and ten year yields have advanced by 30% or more, 30 basis points or more.
这种情况自1983年以来只发生过12次，分布在大概五六个不同的宏观时期。
It's only happened 12 times going back to 1983, over sort of five, six distinct macro periods.
海湾战争就是其中之一，还有从09年金融危机低点反弹的时候，等等。
The Gulf War being one of them, coming off the o nine low financial crisis and so forth.
而且值得注意的是，尽管指数层面表现有点不稳定，但标普500在接下来的一、二、三个月，甚至六、九、十二个月的远期回报，每次都是正的。
And remarkably, despite sort of dodgy performance at the index level, S and P on a one, two, three month basis, Forward returns are positive every time, sort of six, nine, twelve months out.
市场有个说法，这很重要。
The market, there's an adage, it's important.
我的导师教过我，他说，在看似不可能的地方展现出的强势，必须得到尊重。
The teacher mentor taught me this, he said, strength, where strength is unlikely, has to be respected.
这个市场，天哪。
This market Guy.
市场并没有对应该成为问题的事情做出反应。
Is not reacting to to to what should be a problem.
对吧？
Right?
它没有对更高的收益率做出反应。
It's not reacting to higher yields.
它也没有对油价飙升做出反应。
It's not reacting to a surge in oil.
所以现在的说法是，目前看来，与新闻、油价或利率相关的抛售还不会马上发生。
So the narrative would be that for now, some sort of news related, oil related, interest rate related sell off is not imminent.
我喜欢这句话。
I love that saying.
在人们没想到的地方展现出强势。
A strength where strength is not expected.
对。
No.
不像……
Not like...
不像……
Not like...
像是故障了。
Like fault.
是市场的问题。
It's It's the market.
这就像是
It's the
洛奇·巴尔博亚的故事。
whole Rocky Balboa.
那个人倒下了。
The guy goes down.
等他好不容易站起来，结果又倒下去了。
Guess I when he got back up, then he goes down again.
他重新站了起来。
He gets back.
总有一天，当他不再倒下时，他就会赢。
At some point, when he's not staying down, he's going to win.
在看似不可能的地方展现出的力量，必须得到尊重。
Strength, where strength is unlikely, has to be respected.
我现在终于明白你说的洛奇是什么意思了。
I don't Now now you get it right with the Rocky
我第一次就懂了。
I got it the first time.
Tim是我这边的代表。
Tim's the one in me.
他当时是看着我的，
He was looking to me as
大概是因为我不符合那个条件吧。
Probably because I I don't fit that bill.
但是……
But...
但我的意思是，从现在的角度来看，我们预计标普500会有可观的回报，因为……
But I mean, the the idea that from here, we're gonna see sizable returns on the S and P, notable returns on the and 500 because it was......
80%的时候都是上涨的。
Up 80% of the time.
总之，未来的回报通常是正的。
Anyway, forward returns are generally positive.
但大家关注的焦点不是美联储降息25个基点。
But what all eyes are on, it's not about, okay, the Fed does quarter point.
拜托。
Come on.
他们的财报已经结束了。
Their earnings are done.
为什么整个股市在利率和油价大幅飙升的情况下，还能基本不受影响？
How is it that the general equity market has just taken a huge spike in rates and a huge spike in oil and basically dusted it off?
你猜怎么着？
Guess what?
总统之前就这么做过。
The president is that has done it before.
这……
It...
这真的太有意思了，因为利率的变动……
It's it's just fascinating because the move in rates is...
再说一次，这是全球性的现象。
Once again, it's a global phenomenon.
所以那个……
So the thing that that...
我只是觉得我们处于一个更高的……
I just think we're a higher...
我们处于……
We're in...
我们显然正在进入一个更高利率的新常态，而且全球范围内的变化速度比这里还要快。
We're obviously, but, I mean, we're we're moving into yet another higher interest rate paradigm, and it's it's happening even at a faster pace around the world.
所以从年初开始……
So from the beginning of the year...
抱歉，我重新说一下。
Actually, sorry.
其实从五月到现在，德国的利率已经涨了大约25%，意大利也是25%，而这里只涨了15%左右。
From from just May, you've got rates that are about 25% higher in Germany, 25% higher in Italy, versus only about 15% higher here.
如果你真想深挖财政政策方面的新闻，我知道华盛顿现在确实有不少事儿看起来挺不按常理出牌的。
And if you really wanna go after fiscal stories, I I know we have, you know, a lot of things going on in Washington that seem a little, unconventional.
但我觉得放眼全球，有些国家在长远来看，大家给它们的信心还不如美国呢。
But I I do think if you look around the world, there's some other places that in the long run, people have a lot less confidence in than The United States Of America.
所以我认为，对于很多交易来说，全球利率走高这件事超出了我们财政部的控制范围，而且在某种程度上，我们的财政政策也不可能一夜之间就掉头。
And I think that's something that ultimately for a lot of trades, higher interest rates as pulled up by around the world is something that's out of the control of our treasury, and and on some level, our fiscal policy can't be reversed overnight.
所以我就觉得，我们现在处在一个贴现率居高不下、长期维持高位的环境里，而这个贴现率正是用来给股票估值和建模的那个机械性指标。
So I just think we're in an environment where that discount rate, that same discount rate that goes into equity valuations and models and is mechanical and whatnot is higher for longer.
对。
Yep.
我觉得我们确实低估了这一点。
And I think we are underestimating that.
根据贝莱德的数据，全球80%的债券收益率达到4%或更高。
80% of global bonds have a yield of 4% or higher according to BlackRock.
想想疫情前或疫情期间，那时候我记得这个数字是80%的债券有……
Think about think about like pre or during COVID when I think that number was 80% of bonds had...
其实，那不对。
Actually, that's not true.
当时全球大约35%的债券是负收益率。
Was like 35% of all global bonds had a negative yield.
所以想想看，这个变化有多快。
Mean, so think about how quickly that's turned.
所以，是的，我相信这个数据。
So, yeah, I believe it.
接蒂姆刚才说的，我们一直强调这一点：这不仅仅是一个美国的问题。
To Tim's point, and we've been making the point, it's not just a U.
美国的情况。
S.
这是一个全球性的现象，这也是我认为美国利率还会继续上升的原因之一。
Thing, it's a global thing, which is another reason why I think U.
利率还会继续走高。
Rates will continue to go higher.
对，而且不仅仅是主权债务的问题。
Yeah, and it's not just sovereign debt.
我是说，你看看现在公司债市场出现的这种分化情况。
I mean, think about what's going on in the dispersion we're seeing just in corporate debt right now.
我觉得甲骨文上周的报告挺有意思的，他们提到不再进行任何融资。
And I think that, you know, Oracle in their report last week is really interesting because they talked about not raising any more capital.
不过拉里·埃里森取消了一笔75亿美元的股权出售计划，他原本打算这么做，可能是为了给那个华纳交易提供资金吧。
But Larry Ellison did cancel a $7,500,000,000 equity sale that he was thinking about doing, I guess maybe to fund that Warner deal.
但你想想甲骨文，看看他们的债务情况，再对比一下那些大型超大规模云服务商，我觉得那里肯定有不少很有趣的机会，尤其是跟现在的股票估值比起来。
But you think about Oracle and their debt relative to, let's say, some of the big hyperscalers, and there's probably some really interesting opportunities there, especially relative to equity valuations right now.
所以说，这确实是一种普遍现象，就像你们刚才说的那样，到处都能看到这种趋势。
So it really is this kind of, you know, we're seeing this across the board like you guys just said.
我是说，现在股市里有很多地方可以投资，而且风险要小得多，特别是当某些热门主题已经炒得有点过头的时候。
I mean, there's a lot of places to get your money and take much less risk in the equity market right now, especially as some of these themes are getting a little long in the tooth.
不过回到刚才那个话题，就是关于市场机制转变的整个概念，比如利率更高、能源价格更贵这种情况。
But back to like this whole notion of a of a different regime where rates are higher, energy prices are higher.
你信我吗？
Do you believe me?
数据确实支持这个观点，但你相信我们会看到更高的利率吗？你认为股市能稳住吗？五月份以来的表现是否证明了市场比我们想象的更有韧性？
The data bears it out, but do you believe that we will be higher, that the equity markets will be okay as what we've seen since May evidence that the markets are much more resilient than we thought?
我觉得，Ed，一旦利率在高处稳定下来，我认为股市就会陷入困境。
I think, Ed, once rates stabilize at a higher level, I think equity markets are in trouble.
我是说，我觉得会出现替代方案，而且固定收益市场……
I I mean, I I think there's gonna be an alternative, and I think fixed income markets...
顺便说一句，这并不太让人意外，但他们今年过得很糟，而且过去几年里也有几年很糟糕。
By way, it's not a really big surprise, but they've had a terrible year, and they've had a couple terrible years in the last few.
而且我觉得，长期以来，在其他资产类别上做长期投资者一直很困难。
And I think it's been difficult to be a long term investor in in other asset classes for a long time.
现在情况会稍微容易一些。
It's now gonna get a little bit easier.
所以，与油价的关联性，我们不要忽视这一点。
So the correlation to oil prices, let's not lose sight of this.
我确实想说，利率会更高更久，但今天就是一个完美的例子。
I I do wanna say we're higher for longer, but today was a perfect example.
就像你看到的，油价盘中下跌了大约百分之四点五，或者从我们进场时的价格跌到大约2.30美元，你看到十年期国债收益率下降了10个基点，股市上涨了75个基点。
As you saw oil dive about four and a half percent intraday or from when we walked into to around $2.30, you saw yields fall 10 bps on the ten year, and you saw the stock market rally 75 bps.
这是由油价驱动的。
It was oil driven.
并不是...
It wasn't...
一开始我看到的是国债收益率在动。
At first I looked, I saw the treasury yield move.
我还以为是护盘小组在操作呢。
I thought it was the plunge protection team.
我知道他们不存在，但突然之间，你不得不问这个问题。
I know they don't exist, but yet suddenly, you have to ask that question.
其实不是，是油价在起作用。
And and, no, it's oil prices.
如果你告诉我油价会回到每桶90美元并保持在那里，我觉得市场有机会稳定下来。
If you told me oil was going back to $90 a barrel and gonna stay there, I think the markets would have a chance to stabilize.
我觉得我们不会回到70美元。
I don't think we're going back to 70.
好的。
Alright.
关于利率前景的更多分析，我们请来了法国兴业银行研究主管苏巴哈·罗贾帕。
For more on the rate outlook, let's bring in Subhaja Rojapa, head of research at Societe Generale.
Subhaja，很高兴你能来和我们交流。
Subhaja, great to have you with us.
你觉得我们可能会看到4%和……
You think we could be seeing four and a...
不好意思，是5.25%。
Excuse me, five and a quarter.
这是你的悲观预期吗？
That's your bear case?
这其实有点
It is kind
符合我的看空预期，不过我同意 Tim 的看法。
of my bear case, but I agree with Tim.
我觉得今天的价格走势确实主要是受原油市场的影响。
I think the price action today was definitely much more driven by what happened in oil markets.
而且全球利率对油价的变化要敏感得多。
And global rates are much more sensitive to oil prices.
所以你看到了债券市场的抛售。
So you saw that sell off in burns.
你看到了全球债券收益率的抛售，美国国债也跟着跌了。
You saw that sell off in in in global bond yields, and treasuries followed.
所以这绝对是受油价驱动的交易。
So it's definitely an oil driven trade.
而且当特朗普总统发推文说可能和伊朗达成协议时，市场马上就反转了。
And you saw that reverse as soon as we got that tweet from from president Trump about, you know, potential deal with with Iran.
但确实有一系列因素在推动债券市场走高。
But there's a confluence of factors that are definitely driving the bond market higher.
这是通胀的走势。
It's the trajectory for inflation.
可能还有一点美联储的不作为。
It's probably a little bit of Fed inaction.
我觉得有些市场参与者，包括我们自己，都认为美联储应该尽早行动，而不是拖延。
I think there are market participants, ourselves included, that think that the Fed should be acting sooner rather than later.
然后通胀预期在累积，再加上债务和赤字的整体走势。
Then you have a buildup in inflation expectations, and then the broader trajectory for debt and deficits.
正如蒂姆刚才提到的，这可不是我们一夜之间就能解决的问题。
As Tim was pointing out, again, that's not something we can solve overnight.
接下来我们要进入加息周期了吗？还是说这只是个一次性事件，也许几个月内总共加两次？
Is it a rate hike cycle that we're about to embark on, or is this sort of one off, maybe two over the course of however many months?
我们的判断是会有三次加息：九月加25个基点，十二月再加25个基点，三月可能还会再加25个基点。
Our call is for three rate hikes, 25 basis points in September, 25 basis points in December, another 25 basis points maybe in in in March.
不过利率收紧的过程会是循序渐进的，美联储会先加息一次，看看市场反应如何。
But it's gonna be a gradual sort of a rate, you know, tightening cycle, if you will, because the Fed is gonna deliver a hike, see how the market reacts.
就像你们刚才讨论的那样，市场对利率上升并没有太大反应。
You know, as you guys were discussing earlier, the market hasn't really reacted to, to higher interest rates.
从整体来看，金融环境依然非常宽松。
I mean, financial conditions, broadly speaking, are still very, very accommodative.
所以美联储在决定下一次加息前，会先观察市场的反应。
So the Fed's gonna see how the market reacts before they deliver another hike.
贝森部长说他是白宫的人，会进去实现价格均衡，你怎么理解他这话？
How do you interpret what secretary Besson says when he says he's the house and he's gonna go in there and deliver price equilibrium?
我觉得那是他的原话。
I think those were his words.
你信吗？
Do you believe that?
你知道，我的意思是，
You know, I mean,
我觉得在这种情况下，政策制定者最好别老上头条，因为作为投资者，我们看的是基本面……
I think that it's it's better if policymakers actually kinda stay out of the the headlines when it comes to this because as investors, we're looking at fundamentals....
顺便说一句，你刚才那样说的时候。
By the way, the way you when you did that.
说得真漂亮。
That was very eloquent.
我觉得听起来像是不行，不过，请继续。
I mean, it sounded like a no to me, but, like, please go on.
我觉得总的来说，投资者都在试图全面了解市场。
Know, I think broadly speaking, I think, you know, you're looking at investors trying to get a, you know, holistic view of the markets.
如果他们采取回购或干预市场之类的操作，确实会让人感到困惑。
And if they do things like buybacks or operations to intervene in the market, it's kinda confusing.
我的意思是，我理解……
I mean, I I get the...
作为投资者，当我看到财政部干预市场时，我也有同样的感受。
As an investor, I feel the same way when I see, say, the the ministry of finance intervene in the in in the end market.
所以最终，我认为市场和投资者会占上风。
So, ultimately, I think that the the the markets and investors are gonna prevail.
那么，如果美联储两天内不采取行动，会不会让人困惑？
So will it be confusing if the Fed doesn't go in two days?
市场会不会因为困惑而出现一些情绪化的反应？
Will the market be so confused that it will have a bit of a pissy Fed?
发脾气。
A tantrum.
我确实认为美联储必须采取行动……
I I definitely think that the Fed has to deliver...
几乎必须实施那个已被市场完全消化的25个基点的加息。
Almost has to deliver that 25 basis point hike that's fully priced in.
如果他们什么都不做，或者用50个基点的加息让市场感到意外，我认为你会看到债券市场出现一些显著的波动。
If they don't do anything or they surprise the markets with a 50 basis point hike, I think you're gonna see some some, you know, significant price action in the bond market.
你知道，过去通常当市场定价达到70%或以上时，美联储就会采取行动。
You know, typically, in the past, the Fed has delivered when the market's about 70% or above priced in.
如果他们不采取行动，那将会……
If they don't deliver, it's gonna be...
肯定会成为市场波动的一个来源。
Definitely be a source of volatility in the markets.
这很有意思。
It's interesting.
我的意思是，我……
I mean, I'm...
你可以反驳我，因为大多数人都会这么做，但我认为如果他们什么都不做，那对债券是利空的，但如果他们加息，那实际上可能会给债券市场带来安抚作用，而且有点反直觉的是，长期利率可能会下降。
Push back on me, because most people do, but I'm of the belief that if they do nothing, that's bearish bonds, but if they do hike, that actually might provide a calming influence on the bond market, and somewhat counter intuitively, rates might go down in the back end.
我同意这个观点。
I agree with that.
我觉得，如果确实有
Think that having Do have a
很多钱是做空的吗？
much money is short?
我没说我不相信你。
I didn't say I didn't believe you.
请继续。
Please continue.
我认为如果他们加息，并表现出他们确实致力于对抗通胀，就像沃尔什一直说的那样，那实际上可能会限制长期期限溢价的上升，因为这表明如果通胀开始上升，他们会明确承诺采取行动。
I think that if they if they raise rates and show that they're actually committed to fighting inflation, which is what Walsh has been saying all along, I think that that could actually cap the rise in term premium on the long end because it shows a clear commitment to act if inflation starts to, to rise.
我担心的是他们什么都不做，那样你就会看到通胀预期开始上升，可能有点失控。
The the concern for me is that they don't do anything, and that's when you start seeing inflation expectations getting, higher, maybe a little bit unhinged.
市场会感到不安，因为美联储在对抗通胀方面不够主动。
The market's gonna get uncomfortable that the Fed is not being proactive about fighting inflation.
在你的悲观情景下，如果利率达到5.25%，我们一直维持在这个水平会有什么后果？
If we get to five and a quarter percent under your bear case, what are the ramifications if we stay there?
这个问题问得很好。
That's a very good question.
我觉得这得问问那些投资高风险资产的投资者了。
I think that that's a question for, you know, investors in in the risky asset spectrum.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得如果收益率像今年这样逐步上升，股市通常会随之进行重新定价。
I think that if there's a gradual rise in yields, as we've seen throughout the course of this year, the equity market tends to recalibrate as we go along.
但如果收益率出现急剧飙升，这时候你就能看到高物价对风险资产产生的冲击开始显现。
If we see a very sharp rise in yields, that's when you start seeing the the the impact of of higher prices feed through into risky assets.
比如企业债的利差可能会走阔。
It could be, you know, wider, you know, corporate bond spreads.
市场上现在有一大波新发行。
You're seeing a slew of issuance come into the markets.
你知道，这些新发行必须被市场消化。
You know, that issuance has to get absorbed.
尽管公司债利差很窄，但由于国债收益率更高，绝对收益率水平也更高。
Even though corporate bond spreads are narrow, the absolute level of yields are higher because treasury yields are higher.
所以这只是……
So it's just...
问题在于市场如何消化这些额外供应。
It's it's a question of how the market absorbs that additional supply that comes into the market.
股市如何重新适应更高的利率环境？
How do equity markets recalibrate to a higher rate regime?
然后你得问问自己，我们看到的国债收益率是不是一个新的区间。
And then you have to ask yourself, is this a new kind of a range that we're looking at for treasury yields?
这不仅仅是收益率的暂时上升，而是向更高利率环境的持久转变。
It's not just a a temporary rise in yields, but a durable, shift to a higher rate regime.
苏巴德拉，很高兴见到你。
Subhadra, great to see you.
谢谢你。
Thank you.
苏巴德拉·拉贾帕，法国兴业银行。
Subhadra Rajappa, Societe Generale.
我喜欢聪明人同意我的观点。
I love when smart people agree with me.
这种情况很少发生。
It happens so seldomly.
但记住，我们已经确定她是个有礼貌的年轻女士。
But remember, already determined she's a polite young lady.
有礼貌也很好。
Polite is good too.
我……
I I...
我是这么想的。
Here's what I think.
我觉得现在全球经济有周期性波动。
I I think right now, we have cyclicality in in the global economy.
股市有一部分上涨是合理的。
There's there's part of the equity market that's going for all the right reasons.
盈利增长非常强劲，这点我理解。
You have enormous earnings growth, and I I I get that.
虽然数字里有些波动，但第二季度的每股收益增长确实非常惊人。
There's different lumpiness in part of that number, but that earnings, that EPS growth in the second quarter was extraordinary.
全球都在围绕建设进行周期性活动。
You have global cyclicality around build up.
我的意思是，我认为经济状况相当稳健。
I mean, the economy's in, I think, in pretty solid shape.
有人说劳动力市场没有我们希望的那么强劲。
There's an argument the labor market's not as strong as we want it to be.
但眼下正是这些利好在支撑股市，即便十年期国债收益率升到5.25%，在这种环境下也不会把股市打下来。
But that right now is what's supporting equity markets, and a move to five and a quarter on the ten year isn't gonna sink equities in that environment.
关键问题是，这种局面能维持多久？
The question is, is that ephemeral?
如果像周末媒体报道的那样，AI的发展速度放缓了，那将是股市还没消化掉的一个因素。
And if we're slowing down AI the way the weekend's press had us doing it, that's something equities haven't digested.
我的意思是，5.25%这个水平。
I mean, five and a quarter.
这只是……
That's just...
我是说，8月25号的时候我们还在4.6%。
I mean, we were at four six on August 25.
结果短短10个交易日里，我们就涨到了5%。
We just went to five in in 10 sessions.
5.25%。
Five and a quarter.
别觉得……
Don't think that...
所以没人知道临界点在哪，我们现在回到了2023年10月、11月时的水平，但肯定不是那个水平。
So no one knows where the tipping point is, and here we are at exact same level three years ago in October, November 2023, but it surely is not this level.
对吧？
Right?
因为市场已经表态了。
Because the market has spoken as of right now.
市场能扛得住这种罕见的油价和利率飙升。
It can handle this kind of rare spike in oil and in rates.
当时那个时机，特别适合来一句‘别叫我雪莉’。
Seemed like a great time to say don't call me Shirley.
不过……
But...
好吧，你刚才确实说了。
Well, you just did.
对。
Right.
不。
No.
我是说，但他当时……
I mean, but he was...
卡特正看着梅丽莎，而她显然不是雪莉。
Carter was looking at Melissa, and she's clearly not Shirley.
不。
No.
我不……
I don't...
我确实知道你在说
I do know what you're
什么。
talking about.
她是米歇尔。
She's Michelle.
当然。
Sure.
美国银行的股票
Shares of Bank
……美国银行。
of America......
实际上，这种情况确实会发生，很不幸。
Happens, actually, unfortunately.
确实如此。
It does.
确实如此。
It does.
我知道确实如此。
I I know it does.
所以我们现在有……
So we've got a...
不管怎样，我继续往下说。
Anyway, I'm going to proceed.
请讲。
Please.
美国银行股价今天大跌超过5%，原因是其首席执行官对该行一项核心业务的前景持悲观态度。
Shares of Bank of America tumbling more than 5% today after its CEO gave a bearish outlook for a key part of its business.
摩根大通CEO布莱恩·莫伊尼汉在巴克莱的分析师会议上表示，第三季度投资银行费用预计将同比下降超过10%。
Brian Moynihan telling analysts at a Barclays conference that third quarter investment banking fees will likely fall by more than 10% from a year ago.
他还预测交易量基本持平。
He also predicted trading volume would be basically flat.
这种疲软态势也波及到其他大型银行，高盛、摩根士丹利、花旗集团和摩根大通今天的股价都下跌了。
The weakness spilling over into other big banks, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, JPMorgan, they were all lower today.
这还没算上由于AI行业降温可能导致的首次公开募股（IPO）进程放缓的影响。
This is not even factoring in a potential slowdown in the IPO pipeline because of this AI slowdown.
所以谁知道那又会怎么样呢？
So who knows how that will too?
对，我觉得这几个月来，这里其实是个避风港，尤其是考虑到利率的变动，你可能觉得这听起来有点反直觉。
Yeah, this has been a place, I think, you know, to hide out actually over the last few months or so, and especially given that rate move, you know, it might have sounded counterintuitive one way or another.
我的意思是，不同的银行情况不一样，对吧？
I mean, there's different banks, right?
我们一直在讨论这个。
We talk about it all the time.
比如说，如果你看高盛的股价图，它本来应该是IPO热潮的最大受益者之一。
I mean, if they want to pull up a Goldman Sachs chart, I mean, this is one meant to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of like this IPO boom that was expected.
而且他们在交易方面也做得很好，你知道吗？
They also are pretty good at trading, you know?
但当你仔细想想，过去几个月它表现并不特别好，也许在当前这个利率环境难以预测的情况下，它并不被视为那么安全。
And when you think about this, so it has not acted particularly well over the last few months, and maybe it's not deemed to be this safe in a rate environment that seems a bit hard to kind of predict at the moment.
是的。
Yes.
你知道，利率已经上升了。
You know, the rates have moved higher.
我都不记得上次在这么短的时间内看到美联储基金利率和CME美联储基金工具预测的概率变化这么大是什么时候了。一个月前还预测加息25个基点的概率是33%，现在离会议还有两天，概率已经变成了93%。
I just can't remember the last time we've seen in such a short period of time where the Fed funds, the CME Fed funds tool was literally pricing in, I think, a 33% probability of a 25 basis point hike a month ago, and now here we are at ninety three percent two days ahead of time.
所以我觉得，很多对利率非常敏感的行业的投资者，如果周四或周三下午没有出现预期中的情况，可能会很难受。
So I I think a lot of investors in very interest rate sensitive, you know, sectors might have a really hard time on Thursday or Wednesday afternoon if something does not happen that's expected to happen.
你做这个节目多久了？
How long have you been doing this show?
快二十年了。
It'll be twenty years.
真不敢相信。
Hard to believe.
一月份就满二十年了。
In January.
我记得，如果差几个月别怪我，布莱恩·莫伊尼汉从2010年开始担任美国银行的首席执行官。
I believe, and don't at me if I'm off by a couple months, but I think Brian Moynihan's been CEO of Bank of America since 2010.
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所以在这档节目播出的大部分时间里，你为什么会提起这个呢？
So for a large portion of the duration of this show, why do you bring that up, guy?
很高兴你这么问，Melissa。因为我以前听他说话时，总是对周围的一切充满热情，尤其是在美国银行方面。
I'm glad you asked, Melissa, because I've never heard him other than just enthusiastic about everything that's going on in the environment, specifically at Bank of America.
所以当听到他这样评论时——作为一个历来对美国银行环境大加赞赏的人——我会特别注意，我觉得市场也应该像我们一样保持警惕。
So when I hear comments like that out of him, somebody who's historically effusive in his praise of the environment, I take notice, and I think clearly the market is as well as they should.
我只是觉得，如果我们面临正在讨论的那些问题，银行会受到影响。
I just think banks are exposed if we have some of the issues we're talking about.
交易量从历史高位回落其实并不让人意外，只要VIX指数突破20，大家就会觉得市场要波动了，毕竟……
The fact that trading volumes are gonna be off of record levels isn't a big surprise, and and and all it's gonna take is the VIX above 20 that that you think we're gonna get, guy, is is...
我觉得交易量很快会重新回升。
I think trading volumes will go right back up.
所以我说……
And so I I...
银行业是周期性行业。
Banks are cyclical.
银行最近的表现是近年来最强劲的之一，我是说从金融危机之前一直到现在。
Banks have had one of the greatest runs in in their recent history, and I mean going all the way back through pre financial crisis.
我觉得在利率不确定的情况下，稍微回调一下是合理的。
And I and I think a little pullback here makes sense given the uncertainty about rates.
接下来，网络安全股票大涨，带动软件股走高，但这次上涨只是更多强势行情的开始吗？
Coming up, cyber stock soaring and leaving the software stocks higher, but is this latest move just the beginning of more strength to come?
我们马上揭晓。
We will find out.
另外，诺和诺德在名字上减了肥。
Plus, Novo shedding some weight in its name.
这家GLP-1巨头在下周分析师会议前进行了品牌重塑。
The GLP one giant rebranding ahead of its analyst meeting next week.
但华尔街还需要看到什么才会真正入场呢？
But what else does Wall Street need to see before they dive into it?
别走开，两分钟后他回来。
Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.
美联储站在悬崖边上。
The Fed on the edge.
这家央行是会加息还是
Will the central bank hike or
欢迎回到《快速金钱》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
在Anthropic和OpenAI的首席执行官发出人工智能安全警告后，网络安全股大幅上涨。
Cybersecurity stocks surging after AI safety warnings from the CEOs of Anthropic and OpenAI.
投资者押注，企业将不得不投入更多资金来防范潜在的内部威胁。
Investors betting companies will have to spend more to guard against potential rogue agents.
Zscaler、CrowdStrike、Palo Alto Networks和Okta等公司的股价都上涨了两位数，推动IGV指数大幅跑赢其他科技板块。
Zscaler, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Okta, all up double digits and helping the IGV far outperform the rest of technology.
该板块目前距离年内低点已反弹了44%。
The group 44% off of its lows of the year.
你关注网络安全领域已经有一段时间了
You've been on cyber for a long
很久了。
time.
是的，我们一直都在关注。
Collectively, we have.
我们上周就讨论过这个话题。
We talked about it last week.
我们当时说，如果现在发生的情况确实属实，那你就必须买入这些股票。
We said if in fact what is happening is happening, you have to get long these names.
而且我们是在提醒大家注意这些股票所面临的波动风险的前提下说的。
And we said under sort of the caveat of the volatility that all these names find themselves in.
当它们处于……
And when they're...
我说的波动是指，这些股票今天涨跌了12%到15%，而且它们都不是小公司。
When I say volatility, I mean, these stocks had 12 to 15% moves today, and they're not small.
我觉得Palo Alto是一家市值3000亿美元的公司。
I think Palo Alto is a $300,000,000,000 company.
如果你能承受这些波动，我认为趋势是不可避免的……
If you can endure that, I think the trajectory is inevit...
最终还是会走高，但过程中肯定会有一些下跌。
Invariably higher, but there are gonna be some down moves along the way.
但Palo Alto是行业里的佼佼者。
But Palo Alto, best in breed.
你为此付出了高价，但我觉得它值得这个估值。
You're paying for it, but I think it deserves evaluation.
我觉得现在追高这些股票有点危险，我来告诉你为什么。
I think chasing these right here is kinda dangerous, and I'll tell you why.
如果你读过关于OpenAI和Hugging Face被黑客攻击的新闻，我只能说祝你好运。
If you read about what happened with this open AI hugging face hack, I mean, good luck.
要防御一群自主智能体协同攻击，真的很难。
Mean, trying to defend against swarms of autonomous agents working together.
而且，你知道，我敢肯定这些公司也在用AI来应对这类威胁，但过程中肯定会有很多波折。
And you know, I I mean, I'm sure that these companies are using AI in a manner that's trying to match this sort of thing, but it's gonna be lots of fits and starts here.
而且我觉得那就是……
And I think that is...
就像我们会越来越多地听到黑客攻击一样，我们可能也会越来越多地听到这些公司的一些失败案例。
Just like we're gonna hear more and more about hacks, We're probably gonna hear more and more about failures from some of these companies.
这并不意味着他们没有……
And that doesn't mean they're putting...
他们没有全力以赴。
They're not putting their best efforts forward.
但当估值这么高，而且在这么短的时间内经历了这样的上涨行情时，
But when you have these sorts of valuations, you have the sort of runs that we've had in such a short period of time.
我觉得可能很难赚钱。
I think it's probably going be hard to make money.
我想另一件事是，这是短期内的。
I guess the other thing is and that's in the near term.
另一件事是，我们在这种AI交易中看到的每一次轮动，你也可以把软件股算进去。
The other thing is every kind of rotation that we have seen in this sort of AI trade and you can throw software in there too.
对。
Right.
我们看到这些项目最终都失败了，也看到了市场的轮动。
We've seen these things fail, you know, ultimately, and we've seen rotations here.
所以我觉得现在大家对AI的恐惧有点过度了。
So I just think that we've seen a bit of a fever pitch about the fears right now about AI.
我觉得这种情绪这周或下周不会消退，但从投资角度来看，大家正在寻找一个能让人安心的方向，考虑到各种不确定性，我认为目前就是这个领域。
I don't think it's going to abate this week or next week, that sort of thing, But it's finding a place to feel better from an investment standpoint given all the unknowns, and I think, obviously, that's the space right now.
我觉得现在去追涨确实挺难的。
I just think it's a hard thing to chase right here.
我的意思是，除了网络安全板块，微软今天也涨了百分之几。
I mean, aside from cyber, Microsoft was up a couple percent today.
ServiceNow涨了，大概7%吧，我猜是7.5%。
ServiceNow was up, like, 7%, I think, seven and a half.
Salesforce涨了5%，看来是普涨。
Salesforce is up five, so it's broad.
如果你觉得半导体现在估值过高，而且半导体板块会有回调，那就赶紧避开。
If if you think semis are overvalued here and there's a pullback in semis, get out of the way.
我明白这波行情是怎么回事。
I I understand what the trade has been.
卡特会告诉你，软件板块其实...
Carter will tell you that software's try...
从历史高点已经回落了差不多8%到9%。
Is rallied almost 8% or 9% from all time highs.
所以换句话说，你已经回吐了不少涨幅，但是...
So in other words, you've you've taken a lot of this back, but...
我也理解，我们看到一些软件公司，在智能体技术的帮助下，价值其实达到了前所未有的高度。
And I understand where we're we're getting examples of software companies that with agentic help are actually never been more valuable.
但你不能跟我说CrowdStrike——我长期持有它，也很喜欢它，我持有了很长时间，我觉得它是这个领域里能找到的最好的公司之一。
But you can't tell me CrowdStrike, which I am long and I like, and I've been I've been long a long time, and I I I think they're as good of a name as you can find in the spot.
但当你开始讨论2035年之后的ARR模型时，我的意思是，我们其实...
But when you start talking about ARR models after 2035, I mean, we don't...
我们根本不知道2035年会是什么样子，尤其是在这个领域。
We have no idea where we're gonna be in 2035, especially in this space.
所以这里有很多狂热的情绪。
So there's a lot of euphoria in here.
那是华尔街卖方预测两年、三年甚至十年后的专长，当然这些都是做不到的，但相对强度很重要，而两大股票，CrowdStrike和PNW，在过去两三个月里，当半导体被抛售、软件股波动时，它们保持了涨幅。
That's a Wall that's a Wall Street sell side specialty predicting two and three and ten years out, all of which is not doable, of course, but I mean, relative strength matters, and the two big ones, CrowdStrike and PNW over the past two, three months, as semis have sold off and software has been bouncing around, they've held their gains.
你猜怎么着？
And guess what?
它们今天是赢家，反过来也是一样。
They're the winners today, and it's the same thing in reverse.
半导体表现很差，今天它们又很差。
Semis, very poor, and they were very poor today again.
顺便说一句，今天软件股也不全是好消息，实际上Carter接下来会分析一只没有参与反弹的股票。
Well, by the way, it wasn't all good news in software today, and actually Carter is gonna chart what is next for one stock that sat out the rally.
接下来就是。
That's straight ahead.
与此同时，还有更多《快钱》节目内容即将播出。
Meantime, there's a lot more Fast Money to come.
接下来请看。
Here's what's coming up next.
减重和精简股票。
Trimming weight and trimming names.
诺和诺德试图重塑品牌，希望在减肥药竞赛中赢回客户。
Novo trying a rebrand as it looks to win back customers in the weight loss drug race.
但它真正需要做什么才能让股价重新上涨呢？
But what's it really need to do to get shares back on the move higher?
另外，还有一家建立在区块链上的银行。
Plus, the bank built on Blockchain.
金融科技公司OpenReserve清除了最新障碍，CEO对金融行业的展望。
One latest hurdle cleared for fintech firm OpenReserve, what the CEO sees in store for the financial sector.
您正在时代广场纳斯达克市场现场收看《快钱》节目。
You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq market site in Times Square.
我们马上回来。
We're back right after this.
美联储站在十字路口。
The Fed on the edge.
央行是会加息还是按兵不动？
Will the central bank hike or hold?
我们将为您全面报道近年来最胶着的联邦储备会议，并带来凯文·沃施给投资者的建议。
Full coverage of one of the closest calls in years from the Federal Reserve with Kevin Worsch's message to investors.
周三的商务午餐，东部时间两点，CNBC Plus同步直播。
Power lunch, Wednesday, two eastern and streaming on CNBC plus.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
诺和诺德宣布公司品牌重塑后，股价上涨近百分之几。
Novo Nordisk up nearly percent after announcing a company rebrand.
这家GLP-1领域的巨头在日常运营中将简称为“Novo”，但计划在全球范围内保留“Nordisk”作为其法定名称的一部分。
The GLP one giant will now be known simply as Novo in day to day operations, but plans to keep Nordisk as part of its legal name globally.
这是诺和诺德扭转局面的最新举措，其股价年初至今仍下跌了15%。
It's the latest effort in Novo's turnaround push with shares still down 15% year to date.
下周一，公司将举办资本市场日，届时将详细介绍其业务战略的调整。
Next Monday, the company is set to host its capital markets day where it will give more detail on changes to its business strategy.
还记得那位新CEO吧，不过说“新”也不太准确。
Remember the new CEO, I shouldn't say new.
这位CEO是去年八月上任的，推行了一系列降本增效策略等等，但这将是关键的一章，尤其是在我们经历了令人失望的数据结果之后——投资者认为这些数据表现不佳，既包括卡格列净（CACRAMA），也包括其心血管药物。
The CEO took over in August of last year, implemented cost cutting strategies, etcetera, but this is gonna be sort of the chapter, especially after we have had disappointing, what investors consider disappointing, data readouts on CACRAMA as well as its cardiovascular drug.
问题是，他们接下来有什么计划？
The question is, what is in the pipeline?
针对这些项目，他们的具体规划是什么？
What is the plan there for the pipeline?
好吧，这倒是能瞒过他们。
Well, that'll fool them.
要知道，现在可是诺和诺德。
Know, It's Novo.
就是诺和诺德。
It is Novo.
挺不错的。
Good for them.
它在拉丁语里是“新”的意思，不过……
It means new in Latin, but
哎呀，来了。
Oh, there you go.
向Mike Novogratz致敬，他也在看这档节目。我是说，好吧，现在市面上有两个Novo了。
Respect to Mike Novogratz, who watches this show, I mean, okay, now you've got two Novo's out there.
不过你看，这个词在我的缩写里出现过。
But look, we have, it's in my acronym.
我用词很准确。
I used the word correctly.
今年大部分时间行情都很惨淡，而且可能也是罪有应得。
It's been grim death most of the year, and maybe deservedly so.
也许我错过了什么，但我还是会说他们的业务不包括共和党。
Maybe I'm missing a boat here, but I will continue to say their business ex GOP.
对，就是这样。
Yeah, there it is.
垃圾。
Junk.
我们好久没看到这个了。
We haven't seen that in a while.
不，你知道，当你在镜头外开始笑的时候，我就想看看发生了什么。
No, you know, when you start to laugh off camera, makes me look at what's going
其实，我们是在笑你。
Actually, we're laughing on You
看起来挺开心的。
look pretty happy.
是的。
I am.
我总体上挺开心的。
I'm generally happy.
总之，我觉得他们在其他业务上没有得到应有的认可，而且我们之前也说过，也许他们最糟糕的事情就是一开始涉足GLP-1领域。
Anyway, I don't think they get credit for the remainder of their business in some ways, and we've said this, maybe the worst that ever happened to them was getting into the GLP ones in the first place.
嗯，你已经把一切都还回去了，是的。
Well, you've given it all back, and Yes.
而且我确实……
And I do...
投资者日实际上是我认为能带来股价正面催化剂的时候，因为你不会无缘无故举办投资者日，除非你有好消息要说，或者如果你没有好消息，你就会取消它。
Investor days are moments I actually think lead to positive catalyst for stock because you don't have an investor day unless you have good things to say, or you you cancel it if you don't have something good to say.
我觉得口服Wegovy药片的上市已经……
I think the the the launch of the oral Wegovy pill has been...
你知道，效果非常好。
You know, it's been very good.
而且一再被重申。
It's been reiterated.
我觉得你在德国有一个发布计划。
I think you've got a launch in Germany.
这是人们期待的事情。
That's something people are excited about.
我知道仿制药在这里是个不利因素，但我觉得我们已经把很多因素考虑进去了。
I know generics are a headwind here, and I think we've priced a lot of that in.
我不知道还能说什么，如果换个名字能起作用的话，那真是让我大吃一惊，因为我觉得基本面很有意思。
I don't know what else to say other than if a name change works, blow me over the feather because the fundamentals here, I think are interesting.
如果非得这样才行，哥们，你知道的，名字改不了。
And if that's what it takes, guy, I mean, you know, can't your name.
比喻用错了。
Wrong with the metaphor.
应该是“让我大吃一惊”，因为我不能把你吹倒，除非我摇动羽毛的方式能让你……
It's knock me over with a feather because I can't blow you over unless I was shaking the feather in a way that makes
……震惊。
the mind blow.
也许你就是这么做的。
Maybe that's how you do it.
我能听听你对卡特公司的看法吗？
May I get a read on the Carter?
问题是，在经历了那样的下跌之后，跌幅差不多70%，快80%了，对吧，就在过去六个月里，它到底有没有见底？
The question is after that kind of decline, what is it, 70, almost 80%, believe, is this past six months, has it, does it, is it bottoming?
我觉得有见底的迹象。
I would say it has the elements of that.
我觉得风险回报是不对称的，下行空间有限，上行可能有一些有趣的机会。
I would say risk reward is asymmetrical, downside limited, upside potentially something interesting.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，我们来聊聊区块链上的银行业务。
Coming up, banking on the Blockchain.
OpenReserve的首席执行官接下来会加入我们，详细谈谈他们获得的新监管批准对银行意味着什么，以及他们如何打造全球首家持续放贷机构。
The CEO of OpenReserve joins us next in detail what its new regulatory approval means for the bank and how they are building the world's first continuous lender.
接下来，我们回到之前对Fast Money的采访。
That interview with Fast Money returns.
欢迎回到Fast Money节目。本周股市开盘即下跌，因为对利率上升的担忧席卷了华尔街。
Welcome back to Fast Money stocks starting the week in the red as fears of a rising rate swept through Wall Street.
道琼斯指数下跌了150点。
The Dow falling a 150 points.
标普500和纳斯达克指数都下跌了大约0.5%。
S and P and Nasdaq both falling about a half a percent.
纳斯达克100指数下跌了0.8%。
The Nasdaq 100 dropping eight tenths of a percent.
数据中心能源公司的股票因对AI建设的担忧而下跌，其中GE Vernova领跌，跌幅接近9%。
Shares of data center energy companies dropping on concerns over the AI build out, GE Vernova, leading the losses falling nearly nine percent.
GLJ Research的分析师也对该股进行了评级，目标价为470美元，大约是当前股价的一半。
Analysts at GLJ Research also initiating the stock with a celebrating amid a $470 price target, about half of where the stock is right now.
比特币今天再次上涨，过去一个月涨幅超过25%，并试图重新站上80000美元关口，明天参议院将对《清晰法案》进行投票，该法案将为加密货币提供新的监管框架。
And Bitcoin higher again today up more than 25% over the past month and looking to retake the $80,000 level ahead of tomorrow's Senate vote on the Clarity Act, which would provide a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
与此同时，在跨越了主要的监管障碍后，OpenReserve 距离推出其全面服务的全国性银行又近了一步。这家银行专为区块链原生借贷设计，可以全天候运营。
Well, meantime, after clearing a major regulatory hurdle, OpenReserve is one step closer to opening its full service national banks designed as blockchain native lenders that can operate around the clock.
今天来到我们演播室的是 OpenReserve 的首席执行官兼创始人 Dee Chaube。
Joining us on set is OpenReserve CEO and founder, Dee Chaube.
Dee，很高兴你能来和我们聊聊。
Dee, great to have you with us.
谢谢邀请。
Thanks for having me.
刚才预告里提到了持续放贷方。
In the tease, we said continuous lender.
你能具体解释一下这是什么意思吗？
So can you explain what exactly this means?
好的。
Sure.
首先，你刚才提到了《清晰度法案》。
So, well, first of all, you mentioned the Clarity Act.
去年，国会两党合作通过了《Genius法案》，这实际上放宽了美国的监管范围，将稳定币和可编程资金纳入银行监管框架，而不是让它们处于无监管状态，或者由离岸发行方来操作。
Last year, congress in a bipartisan way passed the Genius Act, which opened up the regulatory perimeter for The United States really to bring in stablecoins and programmable money into bank regulation frameworks instead of just being unregulated, instead of having, really issuers offshore.
现在，我们可以真正地将稳定币整合并与其进行交互。
Now, can really integrate and interact with stablecoins.
所以，一旦有了链上的稳定币，你就开启了全天候的资本市场。
So once you have stablecoins that are on chain, you open up 20 fourseven capital markets.
因此，OpenReserve的主要目标是……我们大约一周前收到了 OCC（货币监理署）的条件性批准，允许我们运营一家拥有 FDIC 保险提议的国民银行，这就让我们能够具备这些基础功能，对吧？
So really the purpose of OpenReserve, we received our conditional approval from the OCC about a week ago to really operate a national bank with FDIC insurance proposed, and that allows us really to have these primitives, right?
我们会发行一种符合《GENIUS法案》的稳定币。
So, we will have a stablecoin that we will issue, Genius Act compliant.
我们还会提供代币化存款。
We will also have a tokenized deposit.
你刚才提到了《Clarity法案》，虽然大家对于收益这块议论纷纷，但如果你是一家真正发行这些基础金融工具的银行，那么稳定币和代币化存款之间就存在大量的互通性。这简直成了美国企业财务总监和CFO们的超级武器，能帮他们降低资金成本，而且结算不再受限于周五下午五点，周末也不用再折腾去衔接了。
So, you you mentioned the Clarity Act, there's a lot of brouhaha about yield, but if you're actually a bank that's issuing these primitives, then there are a lot of interoperability between the stablecoin and the tokenized deposit, which then become really superpowers for American treasurers and CFOs to get cheaper cost of capital, to get a settlement that doesn't stop at 5PM on a Friday, so you're not having to bridge the weekend.
对于资本市场而言，尤其是美国资本市场，在我看来，这是我们社会最重要的出口之一，而且会变得更加强大。
And for capital markets, for American capital markets, which my opinion is one of the most important exports that we as a society have become even more powerful.
我们十年来一直在听说银行建立在区块链轨道上。
We've been hearing about banks being built on Blockchain rails for ten years.
对吧？
Right?
我们的朋友BK以前常说，这会是打开局面的关键。
And our friend BK used to say like this is gonna be the thing that kind of opens it up.
你怎么看待进入资本市场？
How do you think about getting into capital markets?
比如你专注于借贷。
Like you're focused on lending.
这是自然的延伸吗？
Is that a natural extension?
因为我们一直听到关于代币化证券之类的消息。
Because we keep hearing about tokenized, you know, securities, that sort of thing.
而且这会让我们的生活变得更难。
And it's going to make our lives a lot harder.
我们得连续录好几个小时的节目，因为他们会一直交易，24小时不间断。
We're going have to do this show for hours at a time because they're just going to trade 20 fourseven.
对，我觉得这是结构性力量在共同作用。
Yeah, look, think it's structural forces combining.
区块链基础设施已经成熟了。
You've got the maturation of these Blockchain infrastructures.
这些第一层网络在过去十五年里已经非常稳固，达到了机构级标准。
These L1s are now really hardened over the last fifteen years, so they're institutional grade ready.
稳定币的采用率在上升，对吧？
The adoption of stablecoins is increasing, right?
我觉得今年流通中的稳定币大约有三千到四千亿美元，到2028年会超过两万亿，这就产生了对国债的需求。
I think we're about $300 to $400,000,000,000 of stablecoins in circulation this year going to just over 2,000,000,000,000 by 2028, so it creates this demand for treasury.
但说到美国司库和CFO真正关心的实际用例，那就是数据。
But in terms of, you know, kind of thinking about what's the real use case for the American treasurer and the CFO, it's a data.
对吧？
Right?
过去的银行是，你把数据给我，你把承销文件给我。
The bank of the past would be, you give me your data, you you give me your underwriting file.
未来的银行是，你持续不断地对数据集进行承销，比如你的Snowflake、你的Databricks、你的ERP系统，并且有权限控制。
The bank of the future is you're continuously underwriting datasets like your Snowflake, like your Databricks, like your ERP systems with permissions.
比如我今天在ChatGPT的Codex上，弹出一个窗口，说允许我下载浏览器扩展，允许我访问你电脑上的所有语音和声音，我当时就说，好的，允许，允许，允许，因为它给我带来了很多价值。
Like I was on Codex today for ChatGPT and a pop up came up and it said, you know, allow me to download a browser extension, allow me to actually get access to all of the voice and all of the sound on your computer, and I was saying, yes, allow, allow, allow because it was giving me back so much value.
但对于美国的财务主管和CFO来说，美国有数万亿美元，罗素2000指数中有被锁定、被困住的资本，存放在托管账户、锁箱和受限现金中，这些都在资产负债表上。
But for the American treasurer and the CFO, there's trillions of dollars in America and the Russell 2,000 that are locked locked trapped capital in escrow accounts and lock boxes in restricted cash that sits on balance sheets.
所以，如果你作为银行允许我承销你的应收账款数据，这些数据可能存放在你的AWS账户中，那么作为银行，我就能全天候持续承销你，并让你获得基于这些应收账款和被困住的库存的资本。
So, if you give me permission as a bank to underwrite your accounts receivables, data that may be sitting in your AWS account, all of a sudden as a bank, I can continuously underwrite you 20 fourseven and give you access to capital against that AR, against that trapped balance sheet inventory that you may have.
再说一次，这不会一夜之间发生，但我们明白这一点，但为此所需的技术必须今天就开始建设。
Again, it's not going to happen overnight, but we understand that, but the technology for that has to be built today.
这给了CEO和财务主管在资产负债表上更多的灵活性，而且正如你所说，会降低资本成本。
It's giving CEOs and treasurers a lot more flexibility with their balance sheet, and as you say, will lower the cost of capital.
我……
I...
最大的……
What's the greatest...
你看，你说的这些全都是超级看涨的。
See, everything you're talking about is wildly bullish.
那么，现在最大的误解是什么？不管是传统银行还是像你这样的新玩家，你在这个行业也有一段时间了。
So what is the biggest misperception right now in both, you know, with the legacy players versus the upstarts like you, and you've been at this a while.
所以……
So...
但是，我的意思是，人们都以为传统银行不想要这个。
But, I mean, people are of the assumption that the legacy banks don't want this.
然而，他们其实一直在幕后默默建设。
Meanwhile, they they've been building behind the scenes forever.
我觉得这里有几件事要说。
Look, I think there are a couple of things there.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得现在区块链的价值出现了分化，主要体现在实用性和代币价值这两个方面。
I think you're seeing a bifurcation in the value of these blockchains from just a usefulness perspective and the token value.
我记得你们刚才提到了比特币的价格。
I think you guys mentioned the Bitcoin price.
如果情况确实如此，那这只是其中一个因素。
That's one element if it's playing out.
另一个原因是，从头开始构建往往是为了应对创新者的窘境。
The other one is the reason to build it from scratch is innovator's dilemma.
并不是说美国那四千多家银行没有技术人员，或者他们接触不到同样的技术。
It's not that the other 4,200 banks in America don't have technologists or they don't have access to the same technologies.
而是因为他们手头有大量农业贷款、抵押贷款，或者已经固化的业务流程。
It's that they have large portfolios of Ag loans or mortgage loans or existing business processes.
所以真正的机会在于，由我们来率先搭建起这套技术体系。
So the opportunity really is for us to really pioneer building that technology.
随着时间推移，我们也能在合规框架内好好合作，把这套技术再提供给其他银行使用。
Then over time there will be opportunities for us to play nice in the sandbox and offer that technology back to other banks as well.
最后一个问题，Dee，就是你怎么看待竞争？
Last quick question, Dee, and that is, you know, how do you see the competition?
我的意思是，你觉得这个行业会怎么发展，你从哪儿去抢那块蛋糕？
I mean, do you see the industry playing out in terms of where you take that dollar from?
当然可以。
Sure.
首先，我觉得现在我们的监管框架非常创新，在08年和09年之后，他们开始鼓励美国银行体系的多元化。
Look, first of all, I think we have a very innovative regulatory framework right now that they are inviting diversity in the American banking system after 'eight and 'nine.
那时候想拿到银行牌照特别难，尤其是国家银行执照。但现在这届政府和这个监管框架实际上是在欢迎创新的商业模式进入这个生态系统。
It was really hard to get a bank license, especially a national bank charter, But this administration and this regulatory framework is actually inviting innovative business models into the ecosystem.
所以你会看到信托牌照被批准。
So you'll see trust charters get licensed.
你知道，我们是一家完整的国家银行。
You know, we're a full national bank.
你也会看到一些类似的银行出现。
You'll see a few of those as well.
不过话说回来，就像之前提到的那样，现有的老牌机构会随着时间的推移逐渐积累优势。
But then again, the incumbents will over time, as mentioned before, start accumulating.
我的意思是，代币化存款会迅速普及，而且它们之间的互操作性也会变得非常重要。
Mean, tokenized deposits are going to take off the interoperability of them.
围绕这个领域，会有机会去构建新的底层技术和框架。
There's going to be opportunities for new substrates and frameworks to be built around this.
我个人对接下来两到三年这个方向的发展非常看好。
I personally am very bullish about where this goes in the next two to three years.
迪，很高兴见到你。
Dee, good to see you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
我也很高兴见到你。
Good to see you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
什么时候
When
斯科特·贝森特上任时，有过一个……
Scott Besson got into office, there was a...
他发表了一些关于美国国债支持的稳定币的言论，说它们可能对国债市场非常有利，并可能压低收益率。
He made comments around US treasury backed stablecoins and how they could potentially be very bullish for the treasury market and could drive down yields.
那在一段时间内是有效的，但后来似乎失宠了。不过，迪现在说的这个，如果这种情况重新出现，你要找看涨债券的赌注或债券论点，那就是这个。
That was working for a period of time and then it seemingly lost favor, but what Dee talks about now, if there's this sort of reemergence of that happening, if you're looking for a bullish bond bet or bond sort of thesis, that's the one right there.
接下来，是关于一个软件滞涨股的总结。
Coming up, the summary on a software laggard.
有一只股票今天没有参与该板块的上涨。
One stock sitting out today's rally in the space.
当快钱回归时，图表大师在技术面上看到了什么。
What the chart master sees in the technicals when fast money returns.
欢迎回到《快钱软件》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money Software.
今天股市整体有所上涨，但有一只股票明显没有跟上这波反弹。
Stocks broadly catching a bit today, but one name notably setting out the rally.
那就是新思科技（Synopsys）。
That would be Synopsys.
这只股票今天跌了4%，今年累计跌幅接近20%，远远落后于同行业其他公司。图表分析师认为现在是投资者止损离场的时候了。
Shares down 4% today, almost 20% this year, by far lagging the group, and the chart master thinks it is time for investors to cut their losses.
卡特，从技术图表上看，情况怎么样？
So Carter, what do the charts say?
在看图表之前，这个板块今天可是个大日子。
Before we get to the chart, big day for this group, of course.
你看市场广度，软件板块里80%的成分股都在涨，但偏偏有个大权重股拖了后腿。
Breath, I mean, 80% of the constituents in the software space up, and yet a big laggard, a big name.
咱们来看看图表。
Let's look at some charts.
我一共准备了七张图。
I got seven in total.
这些图表的标注方式都不一样。
They're all annotated differently.
第一张图，没有线条，没有箭头，也没有任何判断。
First one, no lines, no arrows, no judgments.
我们直接来看吧。
Let's get to it.
第二版，这是一种画线的方式。
Second iteration, one way to draw the lines.
关键是我们正好在这些明确的支撑位附近徘徊。
The key here is that we're hovering right at these well defined brake levels.
下一版。
Next iteration.
你可以叫它下降三角形，但重点是，我们正处在一个关键的支撑节点上。
You can call it a descending triangle, but the point is, we are hovering at a critical brake juncture.
第三版。
Third iteration.
把这个的线画出来。
Draw the lines of this.
非常精确。
It's very precise.
这就是见顶的样子。
This is what topping action looks like.
再把那个圆圈放进去。
Let's get that circle in there again.
继续。
Keep going.
另一种画线的方法。
Another way to draw the lines.
我们已经突破了趋势。
We've broken trend.
我们进入了这个形态的顶点，而且正在失败。
We're into the apex, this formation, and we're failing.
再来一次。
One more time.
最后呢，还有这种画法。
And then finally, there's this way.
所以……
And so...
其实我觉得我们还有另一种方法。
Actually, I think we have one other.
再来一次。
One more.
我们继续往前。
Let's go forward again.
这次顶得有点过猛了。
A big topping out.
这不太好。
That's not good.
这对团队来说是个大动作。
So big move for the group.
有40%的个股涨幅超过5%。
40% get constituents up more than 5%.
其中不少今天涨了10%。
A lot of them up 10% today.
相对强度的滞后效应比较明显。
There's a notable lag of relative strength matters.
当然，这里才是真正的问题所在，看看这位赢家。
And here's the real problem, of course, what a winner.
从50到将近800。
50 to almost 800.
这就是东西老化然后报废的过程。
That's how something ages out and rolls over.
这里有七张图表很有说服力。
Convincing seven charts there.
非常有说服力。
Very convincing.
而且这是……
And this is...
卡特面前肯定有这份资料，但我正在看。
Carter has it in front of him, I'm sure, but I'm looking at it.
我觉得它在2025年夏天的某个时候创下了历史新高。
I think it made its all time high somewhere in the summer of twenty twenty five.
从那以后一直在走低。
It's been trending lower ever since.
一系列的高点更低，低点也更低。
Series of lower highs, lower lows.
蒂姆提到了投资者日，以及股票通常会如何上涨。
Tim mentioned investor days and how stocks usually rally.
我们拭目以待，因为他们月底有一个投资者日，但鉴于这种技术形态，现在很难看涨它。
We'll see because they have one at the end of the month, but it's hard to make a bullish case for this now given that technical formation.
接下来，Netflix在澳大利亚的NFL大赌注有了新数据。
Coming up, new numbers from Netflix's big down under NFL bet.
流媒体平台专注于直播体育，这能带来回报吗？
Do the streamers focus on live sports pay off?
这对股价会有什么影响？
What will it mean for the stock?
还有，先睹为快看看Kramer Cam。
And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer Cam.
Jim正在独家采访博通公司的CEO。
Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of Broadcom.
完整的采访将在整点时刻的《疯狂金钱》节目中播出。
Catch the full interview top of the hour on Mad Money.
两分钟后，更多《快钱》内容。
More Fast Money in two.
欢迎回到《快钱》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
我们拿到了Netflix上周在澳大利亚NFL比赛的流媒体数据。
We are getting some streaming numbers from Netflix's NFL game in Australia last week.
Alex Sherman有详细报道。
Alex Sherman's got the details.
嘿，Alex。
Hey, Alex.
嘿，Melissa。
Hey, Melissa.
你知道的，好像我每次上节目都在聊收视率飙升的事儿。
You know, it seems like every time I'm on here, I'm talking about soaring ratings numbers.
所以今天的情况有点意思。
So today is a little interesting.
这倒不是坏事，但数据更复杂一些。
This isn't bad, but these numbers are more nuanced.
所以可以说是好消息和坏消息并存，两方面都有。
So there's sort of good news and bad news on two fronts.
我们先从Netflix说起。
Let's start with Netflix.
我们……
We...
今天数据出来了，Netflix在澳大利亚的49人队对公羊队比赛，观看人数是1850万。
The numbers came out today, 18,500,000 viewers for the Australia 49ers Rams game for Netflix.
这和去年第一周在YouTube上播出的国际比赛数字完全一样，而那场比赛是免费向所有人开放的。
That is the same exact number for last year's week one international game that was on YouTube, and that game was free for everyone.
这场比赛则需要Netflix订阅才能看。
This game, you need a Netflix subscription.
所以从可比的角度来看，这对Netflix是个好消息，订阅制服务的观看人数和免费比赛完全一样，这个数字相当强劲。
So apples to apples, that is good news, a strong number for Netflix that a subscription based service has the exact same viewership as a game that was free for everyone.
顺便说一下，那场Netflix比赛的国际观看人数是320万。
By the way, the international numbers on that Netflix game, 3,200,000 viewers.
这比去年的120万有了显著增长。
That is a significant increase from last year's number, which was just 1,200,000.
这是指在美国以外地区观看比赛的人数。
That's the amount of people watching the game not in The US.
所以这个数字是1850万，比通常在亚马逊播出的常规周四夜场比赛要多得多，去年那场比赛的观众大约是1530万。
So that number, 18,500,000, much larger than the standard Thursday night game that airs on Amazon, which is about 15,300,000 based on last year's numbers.
接下来是个坏消息。
Now here's the bad news.
如果你拿它跟周三爱国者队对阵海鹰队的比赛相比，那场比赛有2510万观众。
If you compare it to Wednesday's game between the Patriots and the Seahawks, that game got 25,100,000 viewers.
这说明纯流媒体播出的比赛和同时在传统电视及流媒体平台播出的比赛之间，还是存在差距的。
So it shows that there's still a delta between an all streaming game and a game that airs on both broadcast TV and streaming.
那场比赛在NBC和Peacock都有播出。
That game aired on both NBC and Peacock.
这对老牌媒体公司来说是个好消息，他们肯定会在下一轮合同谈判时（预计是2029-30赛季末）继续续约橄榄球赛事版权。
That's good news for the legacy media companies that certainly are going to wanna re up football when that deal comes around likely at the end of the twenty twenty nine, thirty season.
不过，这方面也有坏消息。
Now here's the bad news on that front.
那个2510万的数字，是四年来最低的，比去年下降了11%。
That 25,100,000 number, the lowest in four years, down 11% from last year.
所以这里的情况比较复杂，我们会在周日午后和今晚的比赛数据出来后的未来一两天内，获得更多信息。
So a nuanced picture here, we'll get more data on this after the games for Sunday afternoon and tonight's game come out in the next day or two.
听完这些，我真不知道该作何感想。
I'm not sure what to think after all that.
但听起来……
But it it sound...
听起来，尽管观众能看的比赛越来越多，但他们还是想看。
It sounds like even though that there is a proliferation of games available to the viewer, that viewers still wanna watch.
我觉得我刚才说的那些数字里，最有趣的是最后一个。
I think the most interesting number in all of that that I just laid out to you is the last one.
因为如果这是多年来第一次，我们真的感觉到观众人数可能达到了上限。
Because if for the first time in years, we actually sense that there may be a a ceiling on viewership.
而且，我们会在第一周获得更多数据。
And, again, we'll get more data week one.
那将是一个转折点。
That would be a turning point.
我们一直在想，橄榄球每年的收视率似乎都在不断攀升。
We've kind of been wondering, numbers seemingly go up and up and up and up for football every single year.
会不会有一天收视率会趋于平稳？
Is there ever going to be a point where viewership levels out?
从逻辑上讲，肯定会有那么一天。
I mean, logically thinking there would have to be.
也许今年就是那一年。
Well, maybe this year is the year.
再说一次，未来几天我们会获得更多数据，至少是第一周比赛的数据。
Again, we will get a little bit more data in the next couple days for at least the week one games.
亚历克斯，谢谢。
Alex, thanks.
亚历克斯·谢尔曼。
Alex Sherman.
蒂姆，我觉得这个天花板对你来说已经触顶了。
That ceiling was hit for you, Tim, I think.
我……
I...
嗯，我觉得我才是那个……
Well, I think I I was the one...
盖伊会说他很兴奋去听他的Men at Work磁带，而我说我其实……
Guy would say he was excited to go listen to his Men at Work cassette tapes, and and I was saying I was actually...
他们已经过气了。
They had jumped the shark.
我觉得亚历克斯说了一些……
I I think Alex made some...
其中很多对我来说都很有道理。
A lot of that made a lot of sense for me.
我觉得对Netflix来说，这是非常看好的。
I think for Netflix, it was very bullish.
我觉得直播电视，虽然只占他们观看时长的1%，却占了预算的5%，而且在国际市场上还有很多机会。
I think live TV, which makes up about 1% of their viewing hours and it's 5% of their budget, and there's a lot of opportunity in an international market.
这对他们来说是好事。
Good for them.
我长期看好Netflix。
I'm long Netflix.
我觉得这挺好的。
I think it was good.
另外，这场比赛期间一直有广告，对吧？
The other thing is there were commercial throughout this game, right?
而且，广告业务将来肯定会成为他们很重要的一部分，尤其是如果他们打算为这类体育版权付费的话。
And this is something that advertising is gonna be, you know, a a big sort of, you know, it's gotta be a big part of their, you know, going forward, if especially if they're gonna pay for these sorts of sports rights.
所以，再次强调，让Netflix用户习惯看不同节目的广告，我觉得这可能是件好事。
So, again, conditioning Netflix users to see commercials for different programming, I think that's probably a bullish thing.
接下来是《最终交易》。
Up next, Final Trades.
最后一只股票，Timbo。
Final trade time, Timbo.
如果你想配置非周期股、对利率敏感的股票以及AI相关的标的，那就买强生。
If you want rotation into noncyclical and interest rate sensitive and and AI stuff, buy Johnson and Johnson.
它有三块消费业务。
You've got three consumer businesses.
它有制药业务和两块消费业务。
You have pharma and two consumer businesses.
有道理。
That makes sense.
卡特？
Carter?
Synopsis，这图表不太好看，价格走势也不理想。
Synopsis, that's not a good chart, and that's not good price action.
Diesel，Dan。
Diesel, Dan.
我觉得AI支出回落对MAGS是好事。
I think AI spending pullback is good for the mags.
M A G S。
M A G S.
还有好座位吗？从哪里出发？
Good seats still available out of where?
今晚的比赛还有好座位。
Out of shape for tonight's game.
老鹰队来了。
The birds are in town.
可口可乐KL。
Coca Cola KL.
感谢收看《Fast Money》。
Thank you for watching Fast Money.
明天见。
See you back here tomorrow.
《疯狂金钱》与吉姆·克莱默现在开始。
Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now.
《快钱》节目参与者所表达的所有观点仅代表他们个人意见，并不反映CNBC或其母公司、关联公司的观点，这些观点可能已通过电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体提前发布。
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium.
您不应将本播客中表达的任何观点视为对特定投资或特定策略的具体诱导，而应仅视为一种观点表达。
You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of an opinion.
这些观点基于《快钱》参与者认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不对其完整性或准确性作任何保证，也不应依赖这些观点。
Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
如需查看完整的《快钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/fastmoney免责声明。
To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/fastmoney disclaimer.
NFL开球时间到了。
It's NFL kickoff time.
与体育商业专家迈克尔·奥泽尼亚一起独家解读NFL球队估值。
Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert Michael Ozenia.
NFL是迄今为止最赚钱的联盟。
The NFL is by far the most profitable league.
NFL球队估值现在可以在cnbc.com/sport上查看。
NFL team valuations now on cnbc.com/sport.
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