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7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest，探讨重塑体育与娱乐未来的战略与创新理念。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
现场直播，纳斯达克交易市场。
Live from the NASDAQ market site.
欢迎收看《快钱》，一场重磅节目。
This is fast money, a big show.
今天的主要话题是：纳斯达克指数暴跌，创下单日最大点数跌幅。
Here's what's on tap stops tanking the NASDAQ posting its biggest point loss ever.
标普500指数也结束了连续九周的上涨势头，遭遇今年最惨重的一天。
The S and P five hundred breaking a nine week win streak in a big way with its worst day of the year.
这会是AI驱动的牛市终结的信号吗？
And is this the end of the AI driven rally?
我们接下来会深入讨论。
We'll discuss.
我们会展开讨论。
We will debate.
我们来聊聊这个。
We'll talk about it.
虽然AI板块今天表现惨淡，但有一位顶级分析师认为，一些零售商反而可能从数据中心建设中受益，他一会会分享几只股票推荐，还有Lulu的股价，跌得可真够狠的。
And while it certainly was a rough day for the AI trade, one top analyst says some retailers could actually get a boost from the data center build out and he will bring stock picks plus Lulu shares, they go downward dog.
苹果在开发者大会上能拿下亮点吗？Chipotle又能逆势上涨吗？
Will Apple score a win at its developers conference and Chipotle bucking the selloff.
大家好，欢迎收看。
Hi everybody and welcome.
我是布赖恩，今晚替梅丽莎主持，正在纳斯达克大型演播厅B厅为您现场直播。
I am Brian in for Melissa tonight coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ big show on your desk.
今天我们请到了蒂姆·西摩、史蒂夫·格拉索，还有富国证券宏观策略主管迈克·舒马赫。
Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, and Mike Schumacher, head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo Securities.
好的。
Alright.
我们先来看一个很明确的信号：股市确实会跌，而且很可能跌得很狠。
We're gonna start with a pretty loud message that stocks can and will go down.
我知道这听起来很难信，但如果你需要证据，这就摆在眼前。
I know it's hard to believe, but if you need proof, here you go.
纳斯达克指数暴跌了1100点，创下历史单日最大点数跌幅。
The NASDAQ losing 1,100 points, worst point loss ever.
标普500指数迎来了自十月以来最糟糕的一天，而广受关注、交易量巨大的纳斯达克100指数也崩跌了4.3%。
The S and P five hundred seeing its worst day since October, and the widely owned and widely traded NASDAQ one hundred crumbling 4.3%.
这是它一年多来最惨的一天。
Its worst day in more than a year.
今天早上还火得不得了的板块，转眼就没人要了。
What has been hot today was not.
半导体股票遭到了大规模抛售。
Semiconductor stocks being sold in a big way.
SMH基金，也就是半导体指数ETF，直接跌了9%。
The SMH ETF, SM its own head, sagging 9%.
博通昨天跌了12%，今天又再跌了8%。
Broadcom, down another 8% after a 12% loss yesterday.
AMD、英特尔、美光和马维尔，全都暴跌超过10%。
AMD, Intel, Micron, and Marvell, all plunging more than 10%.
软件和网络安全股也遭波及，微软、派洛阿尔托、帕兰提尔、 CrowdStrike、甲骨文等等，全都有大幅下跌。
Software, cybersecurity stocks also caught up in the sellathon, Microsoft, Palo Alto, Palantir, CrowdStrike, Oracle, and more, all with big losses.
这波下跌发生在借贷成本上升之后，因为今天早上公布的五月就业数据好得出乎意料。
Now this happened after borrowing costs went up because this morning, we actually got some decent economic news with the May jobs number coming in way better than expected.
这导致十年期国债收益率重新突破4.5%，让一些股市投资者感到不安。
That sent the ten year yield jumping back above four and a half percent, a move that spooked some stock investors.
大家好，欢迎各位。
So welcome everybody.
咱们正式开始吧。
Let's kick it off.
蒂姆，听好了，今年每一次下跌，最近每一次回调，都是买入的机会。
Tim, listen, every drop this year, every drop recently has been a buying opportunity.
是这个吗？
Is this one?
欢迎你，布莱恩。
Great to have you Brian.
我不确定，但我更想聊聊导致抛售的原因——那些推动这轮上涨的最大公司，比如博通，几天前刚给出了负面指引。
I don't know, but I'd rather focus on the things that drove the sell off, which are, some of the world's biggest companies, some of the biggest parts of this rally, were either, you know, a Broadcom, which gave you some negative guidance a couple days ago.
听说Meta打算搞一次股票增发。
There's rumors Meta's gonna bring a stock deal.
我们这周一直在讨论谷歌的交易。
We talked about the Google deal all week.
就业数据至少让美联储明确站在了不加息的一边。
You had a payroll number, which at least puts the Fed solidly in the no hike camp.
今晚能请到迈克·舒马赫来真是太好了，因为我真的觉得，现在的情况可能让美联储的动向比以往更关键。
It's great having Mike Schumacher here tonight because I I really do think we're in a case where there stood could be a a dynamic that the Fed's more in play than they were.
不过，如果美联储是因为就业数据而加息，那反而是好事。
However, if the Fed's hiking because of a payroll number, it's probably a good thing.
我觉得我们之前上涨得太猛了。
I think you've got a place where we were parabolic on the way up.
从技术面看，最近几天交易可能不太乐观，有些迹象不太妙。
I would say that technically, there are some things that have happened that aren't great for the next few days of trading either.
我们确实经历了一些抛售高潮，还有那种大家常说的外部反转形态。
I think we've had some selling climaxes, some outside reversals as guy likes to call them.
我的意思是，这种情况不是第一次出现了。
I mean, we've had some cases.
顺便说一句，这波行情不是从这儿开始的。
By the way, this didn't start here.
它其实是在亚洲盘后就开始了。
It started in Asia overnight.
韩国KOSPI指数大幅下挫。
KOSPI with a big sell off.
所以我觉得，现在是该好好喘口气的时候了。
So I think you've got a case where it's time for a big breath.
但人们投资的那些最令人兴奋的领域，反而让人不得不想：如果全球最大的公司都在发行新股，这确实让不少人感到担忧。
But some of the most exciting parts of what people have been investing in gave you reason to say, And and again, if the biggest companies in the world are issuing equity, that's something that I think also has people concerned.
你知道吗，史蒂夫，就像现在尼克斯队这样状态火热的球队，
You know, Steve, when a sports team is so hot, like the Knicks are right now, by the way.
是的，没错。
Yes.
他们确实如此。
They are.
一旦他们输了一场球——我不是说他们一定会输，但要是真输了，教练总会说，输一场也好，能让我们更努力。
And they lose a game, not saying they will, but when they lose a game, coaches always say, it's good that we lost because it's we gotta work hard.
重新调整。
Reset.
提醒我们，我们也会输，得重新规划策略。
Reminds us that we can lose and we gotta reset our strategy.
今天的感觉，就有点像这样。
That's kinda how today felt.
我的意思是，我知道现在可能把你们所有人都说跑了。
And my point I mean, I know I'm gonna lose all of your audience right now.
你看着。
Watch.
股市今天大涨，我并不觉得不开心。
I'm not unhappy the markets took off today.
我觉得回调其实特别好，非常健康。
I think sell offs can be very, very healthy.
其实这之前早有预兆。
Well, we did have leading to this.
之前连续九周都是上涨的。
We had nine weeks of up market.
对吧？
Right?
所以大家都在等第十周。
So we were going for the tenth.
这在统计上简直是前所未有的。
That would have been statistically really unprecedented.
从1985年以来都没出现过。
For since 1985.
没错。
Right.
倒也不是前所未见，但那是在我出生之前，或者刚好是我出生那会儿。
So not unprecedented, but but before I was born or the right around the year I was born.
结果一进去一看，SMH跌了10%左右，但今年到目前还是涨了58%。
And then when you let into it with the SMH, the SMH down 10% or 9%, it's up 58% year to date.
Socks今年到目前更是涨了80%。
Socks up 80% year to date.
所以我觉得咱们得深呼吸一下。
So I think we have to take just a deep breath.
我觉得蒂姆刚才就是这么说的。
I think Tim just said that.
先冷静下来，想想看，你确实一路跟到了现在，希望你持有的都是好标的，但也别忘了，现在可以适当把那些带你走到今天的股票做一些调整。
Settle your nerves and say, okay, you've rode this up and hopefully you've been in the names, but do appreciate that you can get some rotation out of the names that got us here.
对吧？
Right?
科技股现在占了整个市场差不多三到四成的比重。
They're about 35, 40% of the market is technology in some way, shape or form.
你对自己手里的持仓满意吗？
Are you happy with what you own?
好好问问自己。
Ask yourself that.
它能让你晚上睡得更安稳吗？
Does it make you sleep better at night?
如果觉得风险太高，就适当减掉一部分仓位。
And if you want to slice off some of your wrist, then slice off some of your risk.
但这不是让你清仓出局。
But this is not a sell.
这是对你当前状况的一次重新评估。
This is a reassessment of where you're at.
明白了。
Okay.
迈克尔·科尔，我换个方式问一下。
Michael Cole, let me ask it a different way.
我知道今早公布了就业数据，比预期好一点。
I know we had the jobs number this morning, bit better than expected.
十年期国债收益率又回升到了4.5%以上。
Ten year yields, they rose back over four and a half percent.
是这个因素引发的吗？
Was that the trigger?
如果不是这个，那我真不知道今天到底是什么触发了。
Because if it wasn't, I don't know what today's trigger was.
你知道吗？
Do you?
当然，之前提到过一点，就是在我们看到这个数据之前，国际市场就已经出现疲软了。
Well, I mean, certainly one of the things that had already got mentioned is the fact that there was some weakness in international markets even before we got that number.
对吧？
Right?
所以我觉得可以这么说，我们关注的不止这一件事。
So I think it's safe to say that that was not the only thing we're looking at.
节目一开始你提到过，标普指数在十月初出现过一次回调，而那也是我们当时见过的期权交易量最大的一天。
You know, at the top of the show, you referenced the drawdown that the S and P saw in early October, and that was also, as it happens, the largest options trading day that we had yet seen at that time.
但今天这个数字已经被打破了。
Today has now surpassed that.
今天交易的合约接近一亿零九百万张，超过了十月初的纪录。
We traded almost a 109,000,000 contracts, so we beat out that October number.
不过，十月初那次回调还有一个特点——那其实是个不错的买入机会。
But there's something else about that October number that proved to be a pretty good buying opportunity.
那次从前期高点到十月初的低点，跌幅大约是3%，而今天我们也看到了差不多的幅度。
It was about a 3% drawdown from the prior peak to that early early October drawdown, and that's approximately what we just saw today.
正如史蒂夫刚才提到的，你也说过，市场确实需要一些回调。
And, you know, as Steve was just pointing out and as you mentioned already, the market does need to see some pullbacks.
它不可能一直从左下角直线上升到右上角。
It doesn't go straight from the lower left to the upper right.
那我问一下，迈克，我再回头问你。
So let let me ask, Mike, I'm gonna go back to you.
我们之前有预料到今天会有这么高的期权交易量吗？
Did we expect this kind of options volume day?
这是早就预设好的情况，还是突然冒出来的？
Was that the setup coming into today or this kind of come out of the field?
谁能料到会创历史纪录呢？
Expect an all time record?
不可能。
No.
没人会一早进交易室就说：今天将是美国期权市场有史以来交易量最大的一天。
I don't I don't you never go into a trading day saying today is gonna be the biggest day that The US options market has ever seen in its history.
今天就是这样了。
That's what we got today.
今天就是这一天了。
So Today today today was it.
今天我们创造了历史。
We made history today.
今天我们创造了历史。
We made history today.
没错。
Yes.
但再想想我们走过的路，还有过去两周的数据，整体来看都是积极的。
But but again, if you think about where we've come from, and if you think about the data that we've had for the last two weeks, I mean, it it it's all generally encouraging.
我想强调的是，你看美元和英伟达的走势。
And and and what I would just point out is that a move I mean, look, you know, look at the the dollar move in a micron.
这些股票的波动，一个月前我们根本没想到会到这个程度。
I mean, you know, the these are moves in stocks that we didn't believe should have been where they were a month ago.
所以我觉得你得明白，整体来看，市场上的上涨是普遍存在的。
So I think you have to you have to understand that there's been breadth overall in the market for the most part.
还有其他板块也在持续表现不错。
There are other sectors that also have continued to work.
这周有好几天，道指都是领涨的，这也说明市场确实存在一些轮动。
You've had a number of days this week where the Dow has really been the outperformer, and it's showing that there's also just some rotation involved.
所以，我的意思是，整体来看，信息其实是一致的。
So, yeah, I mean, I I think the message is kind of that of being collective.
我相信迈克尔应该也有看法。
I'm sure Michael's got a
没错。
Absolutely.
宏观环境相当不错。
The macro backdrop is pretty good.
我同意。
I agree.
今天的数字不错，不算差。
The numbers today were good, not bad.
问题是，政策环境变得更糟了。
The thing is the policy backdrop has gotten worse.
这才是难点所在。
That's the challenge.
所以人们一看美联储，再看看你们其他喜欢的央行，就会问：这些央行会不会降息帮我们一把？
So people look at the Fed, look at your whatever your other favorite central bank might be and say, is that central bank going to cut and help me out?
美联储的回应是什么？
Answer from the Fed?
不会。
No.
美联储想按兵不动。
The Fed wants to sit.
美联储想先观察，再做决定。
The Fed wants to watch and wait.
现在至少利率
And now at least the rate
加息的预期已经上升了。
hikes of a rate hike have gone up.
确实上升了。
Definitely gone up.
你再看一看
And you look at what the
市场目前面临的情况。
market is facing.
到了七月，它们已经涨起来了。
In two weeks, but in July, they've gone up.
到了九月，它们继续上涨。
In in September, they've gone up.
没错。
Yep.
别管七月了。
Forget July.
七月我们什么都不会做。
We'll do nothing in July.
他们那时候都在看世界杯。
They'll watch the World Cup.
那时候这儿的交通也会像往常一样堵。
They'll have traffic out here like we all do.
这种情况根本不可能发生。
That's just not gonna happen.
不如想想九月，或者更可能是十二月。
But think about September or more likely December.
如果数据继续走高，美联储会加息吗？
If the data run hot, could the Fed hike?
会的。
Sure.
可能会加息。
It could hike.
市场现在定价的是25到26个基点的加息。
And the market's saying 25, 26 basis points priced in.
我原本觉得有五成概率会加息50个基点。
I'd looked at it basically as a 50% chance of a 50 basis point hike.
但说到底，真正关键的是，降息这事儿彻底没戏了。
But really, again, the big takeaway is the rate cut, that's toast.
加息还有可能，但得等很久以后了。
Rate hike possible, but down the road quite a bit.
所以美联储现在只想盯着降息，降息。
So the Fed wants to watch Rate cut rate cut.
你刚说‘没戏了’？
You said toast.
没戏了。
Toast.
这属于技术性说法
That's a technical
术语，指的是底部
term in the bottom I
我觉得‘蹲着’也是个说法，因为特朗普总统希望降息。
think it's squat is another one because the president Trump, would like would like a rate cut.
他的想法是，他选的人会更愿意配合，毕竟‘顺从’这个词用在这里很贴切。
And this idea is that he's putting in, you know, worse as his pick because worse by more be amenable, big word grass.
是的。
Yeah.
我打算
I'm gonna
你说话的时候我去查一下。
look it up while you're talking.
顺便说一下，我念的是‘顺从’这个词。
I'm pronouncing amenable by the way.
确实是。
It is.
没错。
It is.
这么说刚好合适。
That's think that's just right.
说到降息，你眼下似乎并不真这么认为，迈克尔·舒马赫。
To a rate cut, it doesn't sound like you believe that right now, Michael Schumacher.
不是。
No.
我们其实根本不清楚华盛顿那边的真实想法。
We don't even know what Washington's views are, really.
他会在6月17日单独行动吗？
And is he going to fly solo on June 17?
有可能。
He might.
他会针对特朗普做点狠的吗？
Is he going to do something nasty to Trump?
不会。
No.
我真想不到他会那样。
I can't imagine that.
但他会全力支持降息吗？
But he will fully endorse a rate cut?
我看他没这个可能。
I don't see how he could.
现在美联储里鹰派太多了。
You've got too many hawks on the Fed right now.
他在这事上赢不了，数据也不支持。
He loses that battle, and the data don't support it.
所以很可能，他会尽量保持中立，不走得太远，但我真不信他会真去主张降息
So probably, he'll try to keep the ball in play, not deviate too much, but can't really believe he's gonna argue for a
降息。
rate cut.
我不反对保持现状。
I I can get on board with the no action.
但我无法认同这种说法，而且我觉得你也不是这个意思。
I can't get on board with this, and I don't think you're saying this.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得市场不可能一夜之间就彻底转变。
I I don't think the market can change on a dime.
意思是，市场已经把降息的可能性抛在脑后，转而押注加息。
Meaning, that the market threw away the rate cut odds, and they put in a rate hike odds.
如果伊朗战争结束，这些预期会立刻反转。
If the Iran war ends, that will reverse almost immediately.
至于你提到的特朗普总统，如果股市创了新高，我觉得他根本不在乎利率。
And to your point on president Trump, if we're at all time highs, I don't think he cares about rates.
确实如此。
Truly.
我觉得他会选其中一个。
I think he's gonna pick one or the other.
我觉得他希望利率保持低位，好推动市场创历史新高。
I think he's looking for rates to be low to foster an all time high.
迈克尔·舒马赫，就坐在那儿，刚刚说市场有百分之五十的概率会加息五十个基点。
Michael Schumacher, who's sitting right there, by the way, just said 50% chance of a 50 basis point hike in the market.
我们。
Us.
市场就是这么认为的。
That's what the That's market
市场是这么说的。
is saying.
你是在引用市场观点。
You're quoting the market.
你这不是在说自己的观点。
You're not quoting yourself.
没错。
That's right.
说得通。
Fair
够了。
enough.
但会怎么样呢？我以前也说过。
But what what would and I've said this before.
在供给冲击导致的通胀环境下，加息到底会有什么影响？
What what would a rate hike do for a supply shock induced inflation environment.
那只会进一步打击低收入群体，他们已经承受很大压力了。
All that does is actually affect the lower income brackets because they're already getting hit.
油价那边的需求萎缩早就发生了。
Demand destruction has already happened at the pump.
所以他们已经在油费上被压得够呛，接下来还要
So if they're already gonna hit at the pump and they're gonna get
在信用卡和房租上继续受苦，你这等于伤害了最需要帮助的人。
hit with their credit cards and their rent, you've only hurt the people who need it most.
听我说，我再强调一遍，从整体经济来看，今天是不错的一天，这周也非常好。
Look, I I again, I think for the broader economy, today was a great day, this was a great week.
就业市场表现几乎超乎想象。
And the the job market's been almost superhuman.
想想今年第一季度——不对，是上个季度，最近这三个月的数字，尤其是在战争经济背景下，而且我们之前最担心的是人工智能的影响。
If you think about the the numbers we've had for the first quarter of the year or the excuse me, the last quarter, the last three months, especially in a war economy, and in a in an economy where we've been most worried about AI.
结果呢，新增了26.5万个就业岗位。
So, again, 265,000 jobs added.
过去三个月，薪资岗位平均每月增长18.8万个。
The payroll growth has averaged 188,000 over the last three months.
这些数字，我们根本没料到。
I mean, are numbers we did not expect.
这些数据跟外界常说的AI招聘或就业欺诈那套说法完全对不上。
These are numbers that you weren't getting out of, you know, some of the dialogue, the analog that's coming out of the AI job hiring or job fraud.
再加上ISM和制造业PMI的数据，这说明经济的实际表现远比人们想象的要强劲。
So, added to ISM, add to PMI's manufacturing, this is an economy that actually is significantly stronger than people thought it was.
说到底，如果美联储那边……我再回头说这个。
And ultimately, if the Fed I get back to that.
如果这种情况让美联储不得不采取行动，那对股市反而是好事。
If this puts the Fed in play, that's actually for good reasons for the equity market.
我不太确定，但我觉得，撇开战争带来的干扰，自去年十月以来，国债市场其实一直处在上升通道中。
I'm not, you know I I also say, I actually think we've been in an uptrend in the treasury market since almost last October if you take out the war noise.
换句话说，利率本来就有上涨的趋势。
In other words, yields have wanted to move higher.
我觉得它还会继续往上走。
I think they're gonna go higher.
说实话，我也不太确定，迈克尔。
I you know, I don't know, Michael.
你的态度一直挺谨慎的。
I mean, you've been pretty measured on this.
而且说实话，你之前还偏向另一边呢。
And if anything, have been leaning the other way, I think.
我觉得短期内可能会更高一些，蒂姆。
I'd say probably higher in the short term, Tim.
但到年底，可能会稍微回落一点，比如说变得紧张一些。
But by the end of the year, perhaps a little bit lower, let's say intense.
坦白说，债券市场下一个关键考验是周三的CPI数据。
Next big test for the bond market, frankly, is CPI on Wednesday.
如果数据超预期走高，市场会面临不小压力。
If that comes in hot it's gonna be a challenge for the market.
美联储看了也会说：天哪。
And the Fed will look at that and say, oh my goodness.
我们已经连续好几期CPI数据都很高了。
We've had hot CPI for a while.
这可能会增加加息的可能性。
Probably gonna raise the chance of a hike.
市场会有反应，股票、债券，随便哪个都一样。
Market responds, stocks, bonds, take your pick.
全都表现不好。
All of them do badly.
是的。
Yeah.
所以在我看来，这是接下来要跨过的一大障碍。
So to me, that's the next big hurdle to get over.
好的。
Alright.
我们来进一步聊聊吧，因为大家都知道，科技股很多刚创下历史新高，过去几周涨得非常厉害。
So let's kinda add to the conversation because folks, as all of you out there know, tech stocks, many of them coming off all time record highs and the incredible runs of the last couple of weeks.
说实话，标普500指数在今天之前已经连续九周上涨了。
I mean, the S and P 500 was up nine weeks in a row coming into today.
比特币和其他加密货币最近并不热。
It's not been hot, Bitcoin, another crypto.
比特币一路下跌，今天跌破了六万美元。
Bitcoin just keeps going down, dropping below $60,000 today.
现在跌到了2024年10月以来的最低点。
It's now at its lowest level since October 2024.
其中有一只股票正好处在风暴中心。
And one stock that's in the middle of that is strategy.
Strategy公司，以前叫MicroStrategy，这周市值蒸发了四分之一，史蒂夫·格拉索，这是自2022年11月以来最惨的一周。
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, losing one quarter of its value this week, Steve Grasso, worst week for strategy since November 2022.
顺便说一下，早些时候是在《强力午餐》节目，东部时间下午两点。
Earlier on power lunch, 2PM eastern time, by the way.
节目很棒。
Great show.
我之前提到过那种自然类节目，一只受伤的鬣狗，其他鬣狗就围上来。
I referenced that, like, nature shows where there's, a wounded hyena and the other hyenas kinda come at it Mhmm.
因为它们会追着你跑。
Because they're, like, we're gonna chase you.
看着真让人心疼。
Terrible to watch.
但这就是生命的循环，蒂姆。
But it's it's a circle of life, Tim.
感觉就像是……
And it feels like So
我觉得应该是羚羊。
I would say the gazelle.
我会选羚羊来形容。
That's I would use the gazelle.
所以策略公司就是那只羚羊。
So strategy is the gazelle.
所以不是的。
So no.
鬣狗正在猎杀瞪羚。
Hyenas are killing the gazelle.
你明白我的意思吧，瞪羚就是瞪羚。
You get my point the gazelle is the gazelle.
我不是说我没有提到过名字。
I'm not saying I didn't give any names.
但感觉市场在加密货币这边，正冲着某个目标去。
But it feels like the market is coming after something when it comes to crypto.
我同意这个说法。
I I I agree with that.
你知道吗，有意思的是
And what you know what?
有趣的是，迈克提到上一次期权记录日是在十月。
What's funny is when Mike was pointing out the the last options record day was in October.
上次我们看到加密货币冲到高点，也是在十月。
The last time we saw crypto at the highs was in October.
其他所有资产都反弹了，唯独加密货币没有。
And everything else has rebounded, but crypto has not rebounded.
有稳定币，有资产代币化，还有清晰法案。
So there's stable coins, there's tokenization, there's the clarity act.
可能有一打理由让人抛售加密货币。
There's probably a dozen reasons to sell crypto.
而你之所以持有加密货币，唯一的原因就是你相信它，或者是个坚定的持有者。
And there's only one reason to hold crypto is if you're a believer or a hodler.
买入的理由。
Reason to buy.
策略公司一直声称他们永远不会卖出。
Strategy strategy has sat there and said that they were never going to sell.
但也许这周他还是卖了一点。
And then it may maybe he's He sold a little bit this week.
对。
Yes.
五十万美元。
Half million dollars.
这就是原因。
And that's the reason why.
所以市场听到他说过，永远不会卖。
So the market has heard him say, I'm never going to sell.
我就是要持有比特币，别的什么都不干。
I'm gonna be a Bitcoin, and that's all I'm going to do.
但当你看到他出手的时候，
And then when you see him sell,
整个市场就垮了。
it takes the legs out
加密货币市场就崩了。
of the crypto market.
因为从表面上看，比特币就是整个加密货币市场。
Because for all apparent purposes, Bitcoin is the crypto market.
说句公道话，Sailor现在已经不是CEO了。
To be fair, Sailor's not the CEO anymore.
但他还是执行主席。
But it's it's He's executive chair.
听我说。
Look.
这是一个高杠杆的处境，加上你经历的这种价格波动，下跌时幅度肯定会放大。
This is a levered situation that with the kind of price moves you've had, I mean, you're gonna have exaggerated moves lower.
谢谢，Brian。
Thank you, Brian.
不是这样的。
No.
这正好印证了我之前说的瞪羚和鬣狗的那个观点。
And that I think went to my gazelle slash hyena point.
Mike Coe，你在加州，靠着太平洋，你觉得怎么样？
Mike Coe, you're out there in California, Pacific Ocean, does it feel to you?
就像比特币，现在水里已经有点血了。
Like with Bitcoin, there's a little blood in the water.
我觉得水里血多得很。
I think there's a lot of blood in the water.
我的看法是，看比特币的时候，我会关注长期的周均线。
I mean, I I one of the things I look at when I look at Bitcoin is the is the long term weekly average.
从它诞生以来，这条趋势线一直都在。
And, you know, there's a sort of a trend line that goes back since in all of its history.
几个月前它跌破了这条线，之后就一直没好过。
It violated that, you know, a couple months ago, and it just hasn't looked very good since.
说到交易量，那倒挺让人疑惑的。
You know, as far as the sales are concerned, that was kind of curious.
我觉得这可能是试探性的举动。
I think my theory on that is it was a bit of a trial balloon.
如果我们卖一点，会怎么样？
What happens if we sell a couple?
因为他们卖得太少了。
Because they sold such a small amount.
根本算不上什么大事。
It wasn't meaningful.
对他们的优先股分红也没产生任何影响。
It did it didn't do anything for their preferred dividends.
很难理解他们为什么要这么做。
It was hard to understand why they would do that.
然后，没过多久，他就发了个声明，说好吧。
And then, of course, he came out very shortly thereafter with a statement where he said, okay.
接下来一切照旧，我觉得这意味着我们又要开始买入比特币了。
Well, it's gonna be back to business as usual, which I think implies that we're gonna go back to acquiring Bitcoin now.
这确实是个很奇怪的举动。
So it did seem like a very curious move.
但只要那个最大的持币者一公开卖出一点，其他人立马就会感到不安。
But the minute that, you know, the biggest hodler out there decides to sell a little bit and does so publicly, it's obviously gonna give some real concerns to everybody else.
迈克·科，你刚才说的这一点非常关键，我想让听众清楚这一点。
And what you're saying is so critical, Mike Coe, and I wanna be clear to the audience.
我们说的是他们卖了二百五十万。
We said they sold 2 and a half million.
是百万，不是十亿。
They sold million with an m.
这绝对不是打字错误，也不是口误。
We didn't that wasn't like a typo or a misspeak.
是百万，不是十亿。
It was million, not billion.
就像你所说，这数量小得几乎只是几个人想买辆车而已。
I mean, it was a to your point, it was almost like couple people needed a car or something.
迈克，我真的说不准。
I Mike, I don't know.
你觉得他们这么做的原因是什么？
Do you have a reason why they would have done?
你刚说了个试探性消息。
You just you said trial balloon.
你觉得这是一次试销吗？
Do think it was like a test sell?
是的。
Yeah.
说实话，这事儿真的很奇怪。
I mean, it was very, very curious.
他们还还掉了一些债务，但那笔支出远比他们卖那32枚比特币所筹到的钱重要得多。
I mean, so they also retired some debt, but that was a much more meaningful spend off of their cash than what they raised off of the that what odd lot of 32 Bitcoin that they sold.
所以我真觉得，这其实就是个试探——看看要是真卖一点会怎么样。
So I I I really believe that it was kind of a test, you know, what happens if we ever do sell some?
我们的优先股会怎么反应？
What what's gonna happen to our preferreds?
我们的股价又会怎样？
What is going to happen to our stock?
比特币会怎么样呢？
What is going to happen to Bitcoin?
因为实际上，推动这一点的不只是他们自己，毕竟他们本质上就是一个现金储备公司。
Because actually, think it's as much a driver of that it is it is of their own because they're just a treasury holding company, basically.
所以我觉得这是一次试探，而且我觉得效果并不好。
So I I think that this was a test, and I don't think it went very well.
我觉得你们这档节目里的各位，我听说你们特别爱听爱看，而且特别喜欢缩略词。
Well, I I think you guys on this program, I'm told, you know, I'm a pretty avid listener and viewer like acronyms.
是的。
Yeah.
我们现在可太喜欢了。
We love now.
我们特别喜欢这些缩略词，
We love them,
布莱恩。
Brian.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
萨福。
Sappho.
萨福？
Sappho?
去打听一下吧。
Sell around and find out.
哦，天哪。
Oh, wow.
因为我觉得，策略上就是这么出问题的。
Because I think that's what happened with strategy.
现在有个大市场新闻，蒂姆，你可以用这个——脸书和Instagram的母公司今天也被抛售了。
All right, one big market story that is developing right now, you can use that Tim, involves The Facebook and Instagram parent also being sold today.
部分原因是整体市场下跌，但《金融时报》还报道说，Meta正在认真考虑通过股票发行筹集数十亿美元资金。
It's in part on the whole market went down, but there's also a report in the Financial Times saying that Meta's considering, that's critical, considering raising billions of dollars in a stock offering.
朱莉娅·博尔斯坦带来了更多详情。
Julia Borsten has more.
朱莉娅，目前我们知道些什么？
Julia, what do we know?
布莱恩，根据路透社的报道，Meta正考虑通过发行新股来为人工智能基础设施融资，因此其股价大幅下跌。
Well, Brian, Meta shares did plummet on a Reuters report that it's considering selling billions of dollars in new stock to finance its AI infrastructure.
你看看这个数据。
Take a look.
收盘时股价下跌了百分之五点五。
Shares ending the day down five and a half percent.
这反映出Meta今年计划在人工智能相关资本支出上投入高达1450亿美元。
This has Meta plans to spend as much as a $145,000,000,000 in AI related capital expenditures this year.
今天的报道是在谷歌本周完成850亿美元的巨额股票发行之后出现的。
Now today's report follows the launch of Google's record $85,000,000,000 share deal this week.
但Meta对这则报道泼了冷水，表示‘这完全是无端猜测’，并强调他们一直明确表示，人工智能领域前景广阔，会继续以最灵活的方式筹集资金来支持这一方向。
Meta did throw cold water on the report telling us quote this is pure speculation, saying we've been clear that huge opportunities lie ahead in AI and will continue focusing on raising capital in the most flexible ways to support that.
不过，罗森布拉特的巴顿·克罗克特告诉我们，‘Meta考虑发行新股并不令人意外。'
But Barton Crockett from Rosenblatt telling us, quote, the idea that Meta is considering an issuance is not surprising.
我相信，所有类似的公司都得认真思考一下这个AI梦想了。
Everyone comparable, I'm sure, is considering this market will be asked to think deeply about the AI dream.
如果收入能跟上支出的步伐，很可能就会陷入一轮又一轮的循环，直到最终碰到某种平衡点或瓶颈。
If a revenue ramp follows the spend, there's probably a rinse repeat cycle until eventually the cycle hits some kind of equilibrium or wall.
克罗克特指出，谷歌的股价目前处于高位，而Meta的股价今年到目前为止已经下跌了大约百分之十。
Crocken noting that Google has the advantage of its stock being at a high while Meta stock is down about 10% year to date.
各位。
Guys.
好，这真是个大新闻。
Alright, big story there.
朱莉·博尔森。
Julie Borson.
朱莉亚，谢谢。
Julia, thank you.
好了，有两点要说。
Alright, two things.
第一，我得向我的好朋友蒂姆·西摩道歉。
Number one, I need to issue an apology to my good friend Tim Seymour.
你早就用过萨福了，我才知道。
Apparently, you already used Sappho.
我真不知道。
I didn't know.
现在我不仅偷了你的东西，还没给你署名。
So now I'm stealing your stuff and not even crediting you.
我懂，我经历过。
I've been there.
我绝不会这么做的，朋友。
I would never do that, my friend.
你不仅长得帅，还特别聪明。
You're not only handsome, but intelligent.
所以呢，我想说第二点。
So I, you know, I wanna I wanna do Secondly
干得漂亮。
Nice going.
你怎么看这个故事？
What do you make of this story?
我的意思是，Meta 曾经是一只股票。
I mean, Meta was a stock.
他们两年前宣布了股票回购。
They they announced a buyback two years ago.
现在却在讨论可能被收购的事。
Now we're talking about a possible sale.
我觉得，这事儿是这周最重要的部分之一。
Again, I I feel that this is a big part of the week that was.
谷歌的这笔交易可不小。
Google sale was not insignificant.
那些顶级科技巨头纷纷跑到日本、瑞士和英国，总共发行了1600亿美元的债务。
The mega cap tech world have gone around to Japan, to Switzerland, to The UK, and issued a $160,000,000,000 of debt.
顺便说一句，债券投资者很喜欢这种情况。
By the way, credit investors love this.
但股票投资者就完全不买账。
Equity investors hate this.
这些可是全球最顶尖的发行人之一，现在他们的债务规模却大增了。
These are some of the best issuers in the world, and there's now a lot more debt.
长期债务开始和国债竞争，这对国债市场可不是好事。
By the way, long term debt competing with sovereign debt, and it's not great for the treasury market.
对信贷市场和一些本地市场来说，这也不是什么好事。
It's not great for the guilt market, and against some of these local markets.
我觉得这很重要，我们其实从Meta就开始看到这种趋势了。Meta这么久一直低迷，部分原因就是市场意识到，它再也不是那个现金充裕的公司了。
So I think this is significant, and I think we started to see this with Meta, and part of the reason Meta has been in the malaise that it's been in for as long as it has is the market realized this is no longer a net cash company.
现在它是个净负债公司。
This is a net debt company.
虽然没到高杠杆的地步，但这确实改变了它的估值倍数。
They're not Uber levered, but it changes what the multiple is.
如果全球那些现金流最充沛的大公司都得砸进去九千亿美元做资本开支，而且我们还根本不知道回报会怎样、时间表又是多久，那情况就变了。你再想想这些公司在市场里的权重，以及它们之前之所以能享受高估值溢价，现在这一切都变得不一样了。
And if the biggest, most free cash flow generating companies in the world have to spend $900,000,000,000 in capex, and we don't really know what the payoff is gonna be or what the timeline is for that, that changes, and think about the weighting of the markets, and it changes how significant these companies were trading at a premium.
是不是只要稍微有点风吹草动，就能看出信贷市场某些部分在动摇？比如它们开始发股票了？
Is it Steve Grass or quickly, any kind of a tell that maybe parts of the credit market are wobbling if they're issuing equity?
我觉得这得回到
I think going back
刚才那个话题上。
to that.
我不这么认为。
I don't don't think that's the case.
需求是存在的。
I the demand is out there.
我觉得这没问题。
I think that that's okay.
但我认为，关键在于他们没花自己的钱，这给如何花钱、以及如何融资来支撑AI梦想这一动态，又增加了一层变数。
But I think the the idea that they're not spending their own money and this is another layer or a change in dynamics of how they're spaying spending money to or how they're raising money to fund the AI dream.
我觉得这真的挺有意思的。
I think that is is really interesting.
当你看到阿尔法贝特，也就是谷歌这么做的时候，再看到Meta也这么做，就能明显感觉到变化。
And I think when you watch that, when you saw Alphabet do it, Google do it, and then you see Meta do it.
这里的经营理念确实发生了转变，我觉得这对市场并不利，股价也已经反映了这一点。
There's a definite change in philosophy here, and I don't think it's positive for the market and the stocks have reflected that.
不错，各位讲得都很精彩。
Alright, good stuff guys.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
接下来我们会聊波音公司，以及首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格关于提高737产能的表态。
Alright, coming up, Boeing and what CEO Kelly Ortberg had to say about raising seven thirty seven production.
但在那之前，我们即将迎来SpaceX的重磅IPO。
But first we are counting down to the massive SpaceX IPO.
这对市场意味着什么，或者可能意味着什么。
What it means or maybe doesn't mean for the market.
今天市场波动很大，纳斯达克下跌超过4%。
Big market day, NASDAQ down over 4%.
但马上又反弹上来了。
We're back right up.
7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest，带来关于体育与娱乐未来发展的前瞻洞察。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
想获取邀请，请访问cnbcevents.com/gameplan。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
我收到一条关于标普500成分股调整的新闻提醒。
I got a news alert on some S and P 500 changes.
皮帕·史蒂文斯，这事儿怎么回事？
Pippa Stevens, what's going on?
布莱恩，你看看Marvel Technology和Flex的股价，都在上涨。
Well, Brian, take a look at shares of Marvel Technology and Flex because they are higher.
它们将在6月22日星期一开盘前被纳入标普500指数。
They will be added to the S and P 500 prior to the opening bell on Monday, June 22.
它们将取代宝洁公司和坎贝尔公司，这两家公司会被调至标普小盘股600指数。
They are replacing Pool Corp and the Campbell's Company, which are being booted down to the S and P SmallCap 600 index.
所以，Brian，这确实反映了当下趋势——马维尔即将加入标普指数，盘后股价已经上涨了5%。
So really here, Brian, a sign of the times with Marvell set to join the S and P and now up some 5% here after hours.
现在把话题交还给你。
Back to you.
好的。
All right.
非常感谢Pippa Stevens。
Pippa Stevens, thank you very much.
接下来，我们从汤聊到太空。
Let's move now from soup to space.
距离SpaceX在纳斯达克上市只剩一周了。
We are a week away from SpaceX's market debut here at the NASDAQ.
SpaceX，我们不用多介绍，但还是说一下。
SpaceX, we don't need to tell you, but we will.
这预计会成为有史以来规模最大的首次公开募股。
It's expected to be the biggest IPO ever.
昨晚，埃隆·马斯克突然现身摩根大通为潜在投资者举办的活动，引发了不少关注和争议。
And none other than Elon Musk making a surprise appearance at a JPMorgan event for potential investors last night raising a lot of eyebrows and some hackles.
莱斯利·皮克尔带来了更多详情。
Leslie Picker has more.
莱斯利？
Leslie?
这确实很少见，布莱恩。
It was a rare appearance, Brian.
他平时根本没参与那些面向散户的路演视频。
He hasn't really you know, he wasn't in the retail roadshow videos.
所以他在摩根大通这场活动中现身，本身就挺意外的，而且活动还在X平台上进行了直播。
So seeing him at this, event that JPMorgan was hosting, it was livestreamed over X as well.
这场对话一开始就被问到：为什么SpaceX现在选择上市？
And that conversation opened with a question about why SpaceX is going public now.
马斯克通过线上连线参与，用这段对话总结了全部要点。
Musk, who joined virtually, summed it all up in this exchange.
我们正进入一个大规模的增长阶段，需要资金支持。
We're embarking on a massive new growth phase, and we need capital for that.
明白了。
Okay.
第二点。
Number two.
我懂了。
I I see
还有一点，我对收入预期也挺有信心的。
and another thing is that the revenue like, I I also feel pretty good about, like, the revenue projections.
以前收入波动还挺大的。
But, like, meaning, like, like, before, like, revenue was a little unstable.
但现在收入明显稳定多了。
But now I feel like the revenue is, like, much more predictable.
我们
We
我们独家抢先了解了摩根大通如何大手笔装修其新总部。
were able to get an exclusive sneak peek at how JPMorgan really decked out, went all out with its new headquarters.
他们甚至在电梯区摆了月球岩石和40英尺高的火箭模型。
They had moon rocks, little little moon rocks, 40 foot rockets in the elevator banks.
还有太空主题的雕塑和其他艺术品。
They had space themed sculptures and other types of art.
不过，昨晚还爆出另一个意外消息。
However, there was another surprise that dropped last night.
标普全球宣布，不会修改标普500指数的入编规则，这被看作是对SpaceX的打击，因为它无法快速进入这一基准指数。
S and P Global said it would not change the rules for entry into the S and P five hundred, which was seen as a blow to SpaceX by preventing it from the fast entry into the benchmark.
这一决定与纳斯达克的做法形成鲜明对比——纳斯达克允许更快纳入纳斯达克100指数，从而催生了一大批必须跟踪该指数的买家。
And that decision stands in contrast to what the NASDAQ did for quicker inclusion into the NASDAQ one hundred, which is seen as a tailwind creating a cohort of forced buyers who track the index.
但布赖恩，标普的指数背后追踪资产规模是纳斯达克100的二十倍左右。
However, the S and P has about 20 times as many assets tracking its benchmark than the NASDAQ one hundred, Brian.
好的。
Alright.
我们来听听莱斯利·皮克纳的看法。
Leslie Picker on that.
莱斯利，我们知道你下周也有一场重头戏。
Leslie, we know you got a big week next week as well.
这事儿可不小。
It's gonna be a big deal.
史蒂夫·格拉索，首先呢，有些人挺不满的，说：马斯克怎么还跟银行CEO扯上关系了？
And Steve Grasso, first off, people are you know, some people are up in arms saying, well, why is Musk talking to the CEO of a bank either way?
顺便说一句，他还是这本书封面的主角之一。
And by the way, he's leading, I think, or one of the lead guys on the cover of the book.
为什么有人会对此有意见呢？
Why would people have a problem
因为银行的CEO在谈论一支他们自己参与承销的股票。
Well, the CEO of a bank talking about a stock that they're helping represent at the IPO.
好的。
Okay.
你请说。
Go ahead.
谁是这次的焦点人物啊？
It rubs someone's Who's the gazelle on this one?
我就是开个玩笑。
I'm just kidding.
好的。
Okay.
接着说。
Move
继续。
on.
没人是焦点。
Nobody's gazelle.
但我得说一点。
But I will say this.
这是SpaceX自己的事，还是在某种程度上反映了整体市场？
Is SpaceX's own thing, or does it represent in any sense the macro market?
只要埃隆·马斯克掺和进来，这事就总是他个人的风格。
It's always its own thing when Elon Musk is involved.
对吧？
Right?
这本质上是个个性问题。
So this is a personality.
我也想分一杯羹。
I I I wanna get an allocation.
大多数人想分一杯羹，但有些机构投资者早就已经占了位置。
Most people wanna get an allocation, but some people in the institutional world have an allocation already.
但有意思的是，这次散户能拿到30%的配额。
But what's interesting about this one is the retail investor is going to get 30% of the allocations.
这可是历史上头一回。
That is historic.
以前从没出现过这么高的比例。
That's never happened high.
真的从来没过。
Before.
这比例高得惊人。
Really high.
这比例真的太高了。
That's really high.
你想想，他简直就像个偶像人物。
And if you think about it, he's cult a cult like.
所以如果大家追随他，自然也会跟风参与这次投资。
So if if they're gonna follow him, they're gonna follow him into this as well.
你一直听说别跟埃隆·马斯克对着干。
And you've always been taught never bet against Elon Musk.
这种事根本不能用估值来衡量。
This is a thing where you'd never put it on valuation.
你买他的股票，压根不是看估值。
You're not gonna buy his stocks on valuation.
你是冲着这个理念买的。
You buy it on an idea.
如果你是冲着理念买的，那回头看看历史上这些IPO，一年后表现都差得不行。
And if you buy it on an idea, then if you look at these IPOs historically a year out, terrible, terrible performance.
但只要你拿到了配额，看起来就特别风光。
But if you got an allocation, you look great.
我觉得不管接下来一年发生什么，这只股票都会显得很成功。
And I think that's this stock will look great regardless of what happens a Okay.
一年后。
Year
迈克尔·科尔，我觉得你不是那只羚羊，但迈克尔，你肯定也看到网上那些讨论，说IPO一年后表现有多惨。
Michael Cole, I don't think you're the gazelle, but Michael, you've seen all that stuff going on the Internet about how bad IPOs have done a year out.
对吧？
Right?
大家都在说别买这些IPO股票。
People are saying don't buy these IPOs.
我同意史蒂夫的观点，押注反对埃隆·马斯克确实是个大错。
Well, I I would agree with Steve that betting against Elon Musk has been a a big mistake.
我还要说，在我们正经历史上最大规模IPO、市场又一路狂飙的时候，说应该完全忽略估值，这感觉有点不对劲。
I will also say that saying you should ignore valuations right at the time that we're having the biggest IPO in history, and we've had a tremendous run like we have.
这么说吧，所有这些言论加上价格走势，确实透着一股泡沫的味道。
It does feel a little bubble troublelicious, I have to say.
这些话和市场行为搅在一起，确实让人不安。
That all of that language and price action being combined together.
不过，一上市就冲进去买，通常都不是什么好策略。
But, yeah, racing out to buy it on the very first day hasn't generally proven to be a great investment strategy generally.
很多人还是想冲进去买。
A lot of people are gonna wanna do it.
先说几句前话。
Just just a preface.
不好意思。
I'm sorry.
如果你能分到配额，这才是我想说的重点。
If you get an allocation, that's my point.
如果你能以真正的IPO价格拿到，这才是赚钱的地方。
If you're getting it at the true IPO price, that's where you make money on these deals.
这次前所未有地，30%的份额给了散户，而以往他们总是被排除在外，只能在价格暴涨后接盘。
And for the first time ever, 30% is given to the retail audience where they're usually left out in the cold because they're paying that spike first print.
我不清楚他们怎么能做到这一点。
I don't know how they're gonna do that.
我不明白散户怎么抢购，很多人想在富达账户上下单，但根本买不到。
I don't know how retail like, you know, people are trying to get on their Fidelity account and buy it now, and it's it's not happening.
我明白你的意思。
I mean, I I I hear you.
我知道这是 headline。
I know that's the headline.
这确实是个不错的 headline，但我真不确定普通投资者怎么能在平台上参与这个项目。
This is a I I you know, again, it's a great headline, but I I'm not sure how people on a retail platform platform are accessing this deal.
你知道鬣狗还有啥行为吗？
Well, you know what else hyenas do?
它们会笑。
They laugh.
还有更多快钱要来了。
There's a lot more fast money to come.
接下来会发生什么。
Here's what's ahead.
最大产能即将释放。
Max production getting unlocked.
波音首席执行官对新737生产线及其对股价的影响说了些什么。
What Boeing CEO had to say about the new seven thirty seven assembly line and the impact it could have on the stock.
另外，主厨也要卸下围裙了。
Plus, the cook is hanging up his apron.
苹果CEO蒂姆·库克即将迎来他最后一次开发者大会，他留下的遗产，以及苹果能否把Siri打造成真正的AI竞争对手。
Apple CEO Tim Cook getting ready for his last developer conference, the legacy he's leaving, and whether the tech giant can transform Siri into a real AI contender.
您现在收看的是来自时代广场纳斯达克交易现场的《快钱》直播。
You're watching fast money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
广告后我们马上回来。
We're back right after this.
7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道联手Fanatics Fest，带来‘赛前战术’，探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新理念。
Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan, groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.
请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。
Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.
好的。
Alright.
欢迎回到《快钱》，各位观众。
Welcome back to Fast Money, everybody.
提醒一下，如果你不喜欢红色，最好别看屏幕。
And just a word of warning, if you do not like the color red, you might wanna look away.
今天屏幕上红色一片。
A lot of red on the screen today.
股市周五收盘大幅下挫。
Stock sinking in a big way to close out the week.
道指下跌了大约700点。
The Dow dropping about 700 points.
但真正关键的不是这个。
That really wasn't the story.
标普500指数迎来了今年最糟糕的一天。
The S and P 500 posting its worst day of the year.
结束了连续九周的上涨势头。
It broke a nine week win streak.
我们刚经历了一个红得发烫的市场行情。
So we're coming in off a red, red, red hot market.
纳斯达克指数按百分比计算，创下了有史以来最大的单日点数跌幅，下跌了4%。
The NASDAQ had its biggest point drop ever percentage wise down 4%.
明白了。
Alright.
现在有个重大新闻。
A big headline happening right now.
据报道，一群州政府正准备提起诉讼，阻止派拉蒙和天空之舞收购华纳兄弟探索公司。
A group of states reportedly preparing to sue to block Paramount Skydance's purchase of Warner Brothers Discovery.
这一消息传出后，两家公司的股价都随市场大幅下挫。
Both stocks with the market taking a leg lower on that report.
露露柠檬在最新财报中下调了全年业绩预期，股价因此下跌近9%。
Shares of Lululemon dropping nearly 9% after cutting its annual outlook in its latest earnings report.
代理首席执行官将此归咎于近期与创始人奇普·威尔逊的代理权之争引发的负面媒体报道，以及几款新品推出的失败。
The interim CEO blaming negative media commentary over its recent proxy fight with Lululemon founder Chip Wilson, as well as recent failed product launches.
这事儿其实比媒体上的口水战影响要大得多。
That would probably be a bigger deal than a media fight.
Lulu今年至今股价已下跌超过65%，今天更是跌到了2018年以来的最低点。
Lulu now is down more than 65% in the past year and hit its lowest level today since 2018.
现在这股价走势，有点像安德玛当年的样子。
Stock looking a little Under Armour ish.
与此同时，波音首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格今早接受了菲利普·洛的采访，谈到了737 MAX飞机的产能提升计划。
Meantime, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg speaking to Philip Lowe this morning about ramping up production of its seven thirty seven MAX jets.
公司计划从七月开始启用新的生产线，把每月产量从47架提高到52架。
Company plans to begin to assemble a new line of planes in July, helping increase output from 47 planes to 52 a month.
蒂姆，波音的股价今天确实跌了。
Tim, Boeing stock, listen, fell today.
今天整个市场都在跌，但我认为这对波音来说反而是个积极信号。
The entire market fell today, but I think a positive sign for Boeing.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，五月相比四月，MAX飞机的产量确实有改善，不过他们主要的利润还是来自787和更大的机型。
I mean, the the improvement in May over April, the max planes, you know, they make more of their money in the seven eighty sevens and and the bigger planes.
但波音一直是一步前进，两步后退，再三步前进，又两步后退。
But this has been a one step forward, two steps back, three steps forward, two steps back.
这其实就是波音的常态。
I mean, that's been the move in Boeing.
这本质上是个自由现金流的故事。
It is a free cash flow story.
我们现在谈的都是那些发债融资的公司。
Here we are talking about companies that are issuing debt.
但波音我觉得至少已经熬过了自由现金流最差的阶段。
This is a company I think that's seen the worst of at least the negative free cash flow.
所以我才长期看好它的前景。
And that's why I'm a long term believer in the story.
我知道，前方从来就没有一条轻松的路。
I think there's never an easy path forward.
你提到监管环境的问题。
You speak about the regulatory environment.
我的意思是，股价波动是挺大的，但我一直持有波音，而且会继续持有。
I mean, it's it's it's it's choppy, but I'm long Boeing, and I expect to stay long.
持有波音，而且会长期持有。
Long Boeing and staying long.
好的，蒂姆。
Alright, Tim.
非常感谢你。
Thank you very much.
接下来，别管玛丽·简的最后之舞，也别管蒂姆·库克的谢幕演出，我们这档节目关心的是，下周苹果开发者大会会有哪些重磅消息，或者快速回放两分钟。
Coming up, forget Mary Jane's last dance, Tim Cook's last dance, what we care about on this show, what to expect from Apple's big developers conference next week or fast money back in two.
好的。
Alright.
欢迎回来。
Welcome back.
苹果一年一度的开发者大会下周一就要开幕了。
Apple's annual developers conference kicking off on Monday.
这将是蒂姆·库克作为CEO参加的最后一次全球开发者大会。
This will be Tim Cook's last WWDC as CEO.
投资者们密切关注这一点，但更重要的是，看看有没有关于Siri全面升级和苹果AI战略的新消息。
Investors closely watching for that, but also more importantly, any updates on a revamped Siri and their AI strategy.
现在有麦肯齐·西加洛斯加入我们。
Mackenzie Segalos joining us now.
麦肯齐，周一的全球开发者大会我们会看到哪些新内容？
Mackenzie, what can we expect from the Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday?
周一在库比蒂诺，苹果投资者们将判断蒂姆·库克押注AI的策略是否开始见效。
So on Monday in Cupertino, Apple investors will decide whether Tim Cook's contrary AI bet is starting to pay off.
虽然苹果的七大科技同行已经合计投入一万亿美元建设AI基础设施，但苹果选择不参与这场资本支出竞赛，他们相信，只要掌控了用户真正用得上的设备，就不必非要拥有最顶尖的模型。
While Apple's MAG seven peers have collectively committed to spending a trillion dollars on AI infrastructure, Apple stayed out of that CapEx raise, betting that it doesn't need to own the best model if it owns a device where consumers actually use AI.
但前提是，Siri在配合ChatGPT或谷歌的Gemini时，必须变得真正有用。
But that only works if Siri can become useful when paired with ChatGeBT or Google's Gemini.
我接触过的投资者都表示，周一必须展示出真正能打动用户的个性化AI产品，比如某种能跨应用自主执行任务的智能代理体验。
Investors I've been speaking with say that Monday has to show tangible personalized AI products that people actually wanna use, including some sort of agentic experience where it takes action across apps.
即使这个看涨 scenario 成真，华尔街已经给库克很多认可了。
And even if that bull case comes true, Wall Street's already given Cook a lot of credit.
今年股价已经涨了百分之十五。
The stock's up 15% this year.
强劲的存储芯片供应链让中国成了增长亮点，而苹果的股价在预计增长百分之十的情况下，市盈率已经超过32倍。
A strong memory chip supply chain has flipped China into a growth story, and Apple's trading at more than 32 times forward estimates on 10% growth.
所以进入开发者大会前，我们会关注这究竟是‘买预期，卖事实’的行情，还是库克能在交棒给特尔尼之前，兑现苹果那些高远的AI承诺。
So heading into WWDC, we'll be looking at whether this will be a buy the rumor, sell the news event for Apple or if Tim Cook can deliver on Apple's lofty AI promises as he hands the reins over to John Ternis.
布莱恩？
Brian?
说得真好。
Great stuff.
我不确定。
I don't know.
你这周也挺忙的。
Busy week for you as well.
感谢麦肯齐·西加洛斯的分享。
Mackenzie Segalos, we appreciate it.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
迈克·科，你下周对苹果有什么期待？
Mike Coe, what are you looking for from Apple next week?
你对这只股票怎么看？
And do you have a take on the stock?
是的。
Yeah.
估值显然已经接近历史区间的上限，这一点确实让人有些担忧。
I mean, the valuation is obviously getting at the upper end of its own historical range, and that that part is a little bit troubling.
但股票的情绪面却没那么让人担心。
But what doesn't seem to be so troubling is the sentiment in the stock.
今天股价虽然下跌了，但远没有其他科技股跌得那么厉害。
Obviously, it was down today, but not nearly as much as a lot of the rest of the names in IT.
我们看一下期权市场，实际上看涨的押注比看跌的多了大约4%。
And as we look at the options market, actually, we saw slightly more bullish bets than bearish ones, about 4% more.
这听起来可能不多，但今天在期权市场上，科技股整体看跌的押注比看涨的多了20%。
And that may not sound like much, except that IT generally saw 20% more bearish bets than bullish ones today in the options market.
所以从相对角度来看，苹果的表现很突出。
So it was a standout on a relative basis.
我觉得大家的预期还算乐观。
I think people are reasonably optimistic.
如果你打算押注上涨，现在期权溢价并不高，这反而是个不错的入场方式。
And if you are looking to press a bullish bet here, the fact that options premiums are not that high make that the way to play it, I think.
好的。
Alright.
很有意思。
Good stuff.
Mike Coe，非常感谢。
Mike Coe, thank you very much.
苹果呢，今天算是相对抗跌的标的之一，不过还有其他几只也表现不错。
Oh, Apple, meanwhile, one of the relative ports in the proverbial storm today, but there were a few others.
必需消费品板块是今天标普500中表现最好的，涨了大约1.5%。
Consumer staples, the top performing S and P 500 secondtor today, up about one and a half percent.
涨幅不算大，但在今天这样的市场里，只要上涨就是好事。
Not a big move, but in a market like today, any up move is good.
公用事业、房地产和医疗保健板块也都收涨。
Utilities, real estate, healthcare, also ending higher.
有个问题，迈克尔·舒马赫，我问这个都觉得有点傻，实在不太合适。
Question, Michael Schumacher, and I feel kinda silly asking this one That's not helpful.
但我意思是，别打算
But I mean, don't plan
在这儿对任何事都显得傻乎乎的。
to hold silly about anything around here.
都是自己人。
All friends.
全是鬣狗、瞪羚，或者类似的东西。
All hyenas or gazelles or something like that.
今天有什么理由要做重大的板块轮动吗？
There today a reason to make any kind of major rotational decisions?
你觉得呢？
How about that?
我倒希望如此。
I'd like that.
谢谢。
Thank you.
别开玩笑了，老兄。
Nothing silly, man.
别这样。
Don't so.
美国经济看起来依然不错。
The US economy still looks good.
全球经济形势不错。
Global economy looks good.
这消息不只是本地的，加拿大那边也是这么看的。
That was the news, not just from here, but from Canada.
政策环境确实差了点，但那又怎样呢？
You know, the policy backdrop's a little bit worse, but so what?
就是个下跌日罢了。
I mean, it's a down day.
今天挺难受的。
It's a painful day.
一片红彤彤的。
A lot of red.
你跌了几个百分点。
You're down a couple percent.
我不明白，凭什么因为这点波动就改变整体看法
I don't see why people would change their overall view based on what
他们明明该说，可正因为知道他们会这么回答，所以才不想问这个问题。
happened saying they should, which is why they didn't wanna ask the question because I know they answer that way.
但现在我们有了
But now we got
你这是
that You're
帮不上忙。
not helping.
你是不是
Are you
来帮忙的？
here to help?
当然了。
Always.
你知道，说真的，像今天这样的市场行情，蒂姆·西摩，这种情况其实一直都有。
You know, but the idea is that and I think on a serious note, Tim Seymour, the market day like today, there's been you know this.
人们看到我，知道我是全球名人，就会在这儿拦住我。
People see I see they stop you out here, a global celebrity.
他们说，蒂姆·西摩，我超爱这个市场。
And they say, Tim Seymour, I'm I love this market.
我持有这个市场。
I own this market.
我一直在等它下跌。
I'm waiting for it to fall.
几个月来，市场一路上涨，大家却都提心吊胆。
People have been jumpy for months as the market has kept going up.
有些人就会趁今天这种日子说，瞧吧，我就说会这样。
And they're gonna some people will use a day like today and be like, see, told you.
我关注工业板块。
I look at the industrial sector.
我关注运输板块。
I look at the transports.
我关注金融板块。
I look at the financials.
我的意思是，这个市场在科技之外，整体的广度其实一点都不缺。
I mean, this is not a market that's been lacking for breadth outside of the tech space.
我觉得当前的经济环境会让人更有信心，或者推动资金更多地轮动。
And I I think the economy we have is going to embolden people or just encourage more rotation.
这周已经出现过几次非常明显的资金轮动了。
There have been a couple really obvious rotation days this week.
你觉得怎么样？
How about that?
你知道吗？两天前道指涨了百分之一点五，而其他所有板块都在跌。
You know, it was two days ago when the Dow was up, you know, one and a half percent while everything else was down.
说不定就是昨天的事。
Maybe that was even yesterday.
这一周可真够长的。
It's been a long week.
但我猜
But I I guess
你之前在节目里提到过道指，是吗？
Do are you saying you mentioned the Dow earlier in the show.
你觉得这周市场其实已经在悄悄轮动了，早于今天的表现？
Do you think the market's almost been kinda quietly rotating this week anyway, ahead of today?
对。
Yes.
而且我认为这周有些日子，指数虽然涨了40个基点，但完全是靠少数内存、AI和CPU股票拉动的，其他股票表现其实相当糟糕。
And and and I also would argue that we've had days this week where the indices were, up 40 bps, but because they were pulled up by a handful of memory and AI and CPU stocks, and the rest of the market was really pretty ugly.
所以我觉得我们已经开始看到这种迹象了，其实这周早些时候就已经出现了。
So I think we've started to see, we had seen this earlier in the week.
它们是从软件股撤出来的。
And and they came out of software.
然后转进了半导体板块。
They went into they went in they came out of software, went into semis.
我们又从半导体转向了软件。
We came out of semis, went back into software.
所以它们只是在科技板块内部轮动，但每家公司都在用技术。
So they're rotating within the tech complex, but every stock is using technology.
所以范围越广，像卡特彼勒或约翰迪尔这样的公司也可能成为AI概念股。
So the broader it gets, you could have a Caterpillar or a John Deere be an AI stock.
最终，所有影响都会慢慢传导到那些没像半导体那样剧烈波动的公司。
Everything will filter through to the names that haven't been affected so dramatically as the semis.
不仅说得太好了，还自然接上了话题，谢谢。
Not only a great point, but a great segue You're welcome.
接下来聊聊我们的茶饮。
To our teas.
好了。
Alright.
所以你是
So you're
来帮你的。
here to help.
没错。
That's right.
我正在做这件事。
I'm I'm doing this.
帮帮我。
Help me.
萨福。
Sappho.
萨福。
Sappho.
因为广告之后，我得换成无咖啡因的了。
Because coming up after the break, I gotta switch to decaf.
我们接下来会请一位嘉宾，他会说有一些零售商从人工智能数据中心的建设中受益。
We are gonna have a guest who will say there are retailers benefit from the AI data center build out.
我们将把数据中心和零售商连接起来。
We're going to connect data centers to retailers.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
我们接下来希望。
We hope next.
好的。
All right.
各位，数据中心的建设正好处于人工智能投资热潮的前沿。
So you know this folks, data center build out right at the forefront of the AI investment boom.
瑞银认为，零售业可能是一个被低估的受益者。
And UBS says retail could be an underappreciated beneficiary.
分析师指出，当地经济的增长会波及到那些靠近数据中心的实体零售商。
Analysts writing that the gains in the local economies could ripple through the retailers with brick and mortar stores that are near, near data centers.
这项研究的负责人杰伊·索尔斯现在加入我们。
Jay Soles behind that call, behind the research, joins us now.
杰伊，你这个分析太棒了。
I love what you did, Jay.
欢迎你加入。
Welcome, by the way.
你研究的是那些距离数据中心十英里范围内的零售商。
You looked at retailers that I think were within a 10 mile radius of data centers.
没错。
Right.
为什么这么说？
Why?
确实如此。
Right.
正在建设中的数据中心，一旦动工，一个中等规模的县，GDP就能因此提升百分之三。
Data centers under construction because when data centers are being constructed, you take a midsize county, it can raise the GDP in that county by one to 3%.
一旦出现这种情况，通常会带动整体经济增长，最终惠及零售商。
When that happens, typically, that creates economic growth broadly, which ultimately helps retailers.
现在的关键是，数据中心并不是均匀地建在美国各地。
Now, the key is the data centers aren't being built evenly across The U.
美国。
S.
有些地方支持，有些地方反对。
Some localities are in favor of it and some are not.
这就是典型的邻避效应。
It's a NIMBY world.
有些人不太喜欢这样。
Some people don't like it.
所以有些人会先动手，Brian，你先说。
So there are some go ahead, Brian.
不，不。
No, no.
我我我是这么想的，我同意你刚才说的。
I I I was thinking I agree with what you're saying.
我去过几个数据中心的工地，光是卡车司机、混凝土工、电工这些人工成本就惊人，钱确实不少，但总觉得这笔钱来得快去得也快。
Having been to data center sites, the amount of money truck drivers, concrete electricians to build the construct, you know, there's no doubt there's a ton of money, but it feels like the money is temporary.
那这种影响，杰伊，大概能持续多久？
So how long does this this effect, Jay, last?
没错。
Right.
这个话题我们回头再聊，因为现在正在建的数据中心，我们可以先看明年哪些零售商在数据中心建设集中的地区有最大敞口。
Well, it's a topic that we'll revisit because if you take the data centers that are under construction now, we're basically saying, look, for the next year, here are the retailers that have outsized exposure to where data centers are being built.
而且数据中心的建设大概率还会继续。
Now, probably data centers continue to get built.
过去两年建设量涨了三成，今年也还是这样。
I think, you know, data center construction was up, you know, 30% last two years and stuff that again this year.
再往后，到2027年以后，建设还会持续下去。
You go beyond 2027, it's going to continue to get built out.
到那时候，我们再看看哪些公司会因此受益。
Then we'll look at who has the exposure at that point as well.
当销售额的几个百分点出现变化时，真的能彻底改变一只股票的命运，但归根结底，你不能在糟糕的社区里买一栋好房子。
So, when when a couple percent change in comps really comes in, that can really change the fortunes of a stock, but but ultimately, you you you can't buy a nice house in a bad neighborhood.
所以我很好奇，你是怎么把数据中心的投资逻辑和梅西百货这类公司联系起来的？它们第一季度的销售数据其实不错，而且AI可能还给它们的业务带来了整体利好。
So, I'm just curious where you're marrying your thesis on data centers with a Macy's or someone who actually may have had pretty good comps in Q1, and actually there's an overall benefit, maybe even for their business from AI.
我也很想听听这方面的看法。
I'd love to hear about that too.
当然可以。
Sure.
我很乐意回应这两个问题。
Well, I'd love to address both of those.
我们先说百货公司吧，你提到了梅西百货。
So, take department stores, because you mentioned Macy's.
梅西百货和布鲁明戴尔百货，其实它们的门店正好位于数据中心建设密集的区域，受益很明显。
Macy's and Bloomingdale's, remember, have actually really nice exposure to the places where the deniseries have been constructed.
另一方面，确实如此。
On the other hand, do.
科尔士没有。
Cole's does not.
如果你问我，我可能会反过来想。
I would have been If you would have asked me, I would have inverted that in my mind.
对吧？
Right?
关键是，关于这个……
That's the thing about the Did
科尔士的？
high, Cole's?
抱歉。
Sorry.
这条领带真漂亮。
It's a beautiful tie.
科尔斯卖的领带都很精致，不过我想说的是，零售商确实在受益于人工智能，他们已经在用了。
And Kohl's sells beautiful ties, by the way, But I just want to say I think, you know, the other point about retailers are benefiting from AI, you know, the retailers are using it.
我发现一个特别有意思的事，我们研究了管理层薪酬的代理文件。
One thing I found very interesting, we looked at proxy statements of how management teams are compensated.
结果发现，拉夫劳伦是软性消费品行业中，唯一一家把管理层薪酬和公司整体AI整合效果挂钩的公司。
What we found out is Ralph Lauren is actually the only name in soft lines that's basing their management compensation on how well their companies are integrating AI across the organization.
他们确实是AI领域的领先者。
Now they're an AI leader.
这正是我们给这只股票买入评级的原因之一，因为他们真的走在了前面。
That's one reason we have a buy rating on that stock because they're really ahead of the game.
他们已经从中获得了不少好处。
They're getting great benefits from it already.
我们之前展示过一张图表。
Well, we showed a chart earlier graphic.
那些都是高端品牌。
We had pretty high end names.
Arcterix的云服务成本可不低。
Arcterix, it's not cheap on running, right on cloud.
是吗？
Is it?
又来了。
There it is again.
好吧，你知道的，Canada Goose。
Okay, you know, Canada Goose.
我的意思是，那些夹克卖上千美元呢。
I mean, there's thousand dollar jackets.
这些才是我们该买的牌子吗？
Are those the names we should be buying?
我觉得，拿Aritzia来说吧，如果你把它和一家没什么云业务的零售商，比如Bath and Body Works，放在一起对比，这倒是个不错的搭配。
Well, I think that if you look at a name like Aritzia there, so if you take an Aritzia and you pair it up with, like, say a retailer that doesn't have a lot of exposure, say like a Bath and Body Works, you know, that's a nice trade to be able to put together.
比如折扣零售这块，Ross Stores现在就挺火的。
Like the off price space, Ross Stores very popular right now.
他们其实对数据中心建设的业务依赖还挺大的。
They actually have a lot of exposure to data center construction.
TJX就不一样了。
TJX, on the other hand, on the other hand, does not.
这两只股票都不错，但如果你想押注数据中心这个方向，看谁的关联度高、谁的低，这就是关键区别。
Now, both are great stocks, but if you want to just play the data center thing and like who has most exposure versus who has less, that's the way to do it.
这研究真有意思。
Fascinating research.
Jay，非常感谢你做的这些工作。
Really appreciate the work, Jay.
你和你的团队做的这些，我压根儿想不到。
You and your team are doing on that because I would've never thought that.
所以你上这个节目，也就不足为奇了。
So that's, of course, that's why you're on the show.
Jay，非常感谢你。
So Jay, thank you very much.
对。
Right.
谢谢。
Thank you.
迈克·科，你这个观点挺有意思的。
Mike Coe, pretty interesting take there.
对吧？
Right?
门店的组合跟我最初设想的不太一样，要是有人随便问我，我可能不会这么想。
The store mix was a little bit different than I might have sort of initially asked if someone just asked me about it.
你对这份报告和研究的见解。
Your take on that note and research.
我的意思是，你对这个问题的直觉，可能跟哪些居民能真正影响自家周边建设有关。
Well, mean, I think your instincts on that were probably related to, you know, which nimbies are actually able to influence what gets built in their neighborhood.
你看，你这里说的是技术工种的人。
Look, you're talking about skilled trade people here.
他们的收入和薪资通常都高于平均水平。
That's gonna have above average incomes and salaries.
其实我还挺喜欢拉夫·劳伦的，也算是给自己一点肯定吧。
And I do like Ralph Lauren, actually, just to give myself a little pat on the back.
过去几年里，拉夫·劳伦一直是我常提的一个例子。
That is one of my acronym names over the last couple of years, Ralph Lauren.
而且这家公司的调整后每股收益连续多年保持了两位数的增长。
And this is a this is a name also that had seen double digit adjusted EPS growth.
在零售业经历这么艰难的时期，它依然表现稳定，持续出色。
So it has been a stable and solid performer now for several years through through a pretty tough time for retail.
是的。
Yeah.
我还是有点难以想象，建筑工人会像你，布莱恩，或者像你这样买这么贵的衣服或鞋子。
I still struggle with this idea that you're gonna have construction workers buying fancy clothes like you, Brian, or fancy shoes.
我认可你的分析。
I appreciate the analysis.
我觉得这个观点挺有意思的。
I think it's interesting.
另外，这东西耐用吗？
Also how durable is this?
我们之前谈过资本支出的问题，还有大量债务融资和股权融资的困难。
We talked about CapEx concerns, a lot of debt funding issues, equity raises.
所以我有点拿不准，但这个分析确实很有意思。
So I'm having a little bit of difficulty, but it's a very interesting analysis.
非常有启发性。
Very provocative.
是的。
Yeah.
确实如此，因为它们的构成不一样。
It it is because it's it's a different mix.
那才是唯一正确的观点。
That was the only point that Right.
并不是说建筑工人不会买好衣服，蒂姆·塞缪尔。
Not that construction workers aren't gonna buy nice clothes, Tim Seymour.
只是更在于
It's just more that
听好了。
Look.
我以前其实干过建筑工。
I mean, I was a construction worker in another life.
是的。
Yeah.
明白了。
Alright.
接下来是。
Coming up.
今天华尔街买了一家餐饮股，Chipotle Rose，尽管业绩惨淡。
Wall Street buying one food name today in a terrible tape, Chipotle Rose.
待会儿聊聊为什么。
Talk about why coming up.
好的。
Alright.
毫无疑问，今天Chipotle的财报相当糟糕，但在整体市场下跌的情况下，它的股价却逆势上涨了4%。
Inarguably, what was a very tough tape today, Chipotle, a bright spot rising 4% in a down market.
摩根大通已将Chipotle的评级上调至‘超配’。
Chipotle was upgraded to overweight by JPMorgan.
分析师认为，尽管过去一年股价下跌超过40%，但这家公司基本面优质，估值依然有吸引力。
The analysts there calling it a quality gross stock with an attractive valuation following a more than 40% though drop over the past year.
他们给出了35美元的目标价。
They got a $35 target.
这意味着Chipotle今天还有大约20%的上涨空间，蒂姆。
That implies about 20% upside, Tim, to Chipotle today.
确实如此。
Well, I it it is.
它的股价比过去五年的平均市盈率还低45%到50%。
It's 45 to 50 cheap to its five year PE.
现在它的远期市盈率大概在26倍左右，我觉得这个位置挺有吸引力的。
It is at a place, it's somewhere around 26 times forward that I find it interesting.
顺便说一句，我真希望阿姆斯特丹73街那家店能坚持到晚上九点半，我每次去的时候，食物还热乎着，他们明明说营业到十一点的。
By the way, I wish the one at 73rd in Amsterdam actually stayed, kept their food still, I'd say, 09:30 at night when I go in there, and they say they're open till eleven.
没错，你听到了。
Yes, you heard that.
我觉得这个故事的核心是，它本该是个增长型公司，但实际增长一直没跟上。
I think the story is one, this is a growth story that really hasn't been growing.
而且我觉得，他们得重新把利润率这块抓起来。
And I think it's a margin story that they need to reassert themselves on.
不过，我觉得现在可以开始少量买入了。
But yeah, I think you can start to nibble here.
少量买入。
Nibble.
我的意思是，如果你看看那些针对具体门店的个人抱怨，其实没必要。
I mean, if you look at the personal vendettas against specific locations No.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
我
I
这只是一个笑话。
It's a joke.
我的意思是，这挺让人失望的。
I mean, it's disappointing.
如果你
If you
看看这张图表，
look at the chart,
我总是把星巴克和这家店拿来比较。
I always compare the two, Starbucks and this one.
对吧？
Right?
CEO布莱恩·尼科尔，是位实干家。
CEO CEO, Brian Nickel, myograd.
没错。
Yep.
他确实是个擅长运营的人。
And he's and he's an operator.
当你看Chipotle的图表时，
And when you look at the
这张图的情况太糟了，反而成了个机会。
chart on Chipotle, this is one of those, it's so bad, it's good.
我不确定现在是不是已经到好时候了，但我觉得这反而是个反直觉的投资。
I have I don't know if I'm at the it's good yet, but I think it's just a counterintuitive play.
它已经跌得够多了。
It's been down so much.
但如果你看看两者之间的相对表现，星巴克明显更胜一筹。
But if you look at the relative performance between the two, Starbucks has definitely outperformed.
如果你有兴趣试试，我能理解他们对Chipotle的看法。
If you wanna give it a shot, I could see what they're saying with Chipotle.
好的。
Alright.
接下来是你的最后一次交易时间。
Up next, it is your final trade time.
搞定。
Boom.
别走开。
Stick around.
迈克·科开启最后一次交易。
Mike Coe kick off the final trades.
几乎所有的产品都是盒装发货的。
Almost everything ships in a box.
一家历史悠久，却在现代经济中依然活跃的公司。
A very old company that works in a modern economy.
美国包装公司，股票代码PKJ。
Packaging Corporation of America, ticker p k j.
做多美元，做多DXY。
Long US dollar, long DXY.
随便你选哪个。
Take your pick.
美元正在上涨。
Dollar's going up.
史蒂夫·格拉索，IJR，小型股ETF。
Steve Grasso, IJR, small cap ETF.
要是想睡个安稳觉，不妨投点钱进去。
If you wanna sleep at night, put a little money there.
在结束之前，蒂姆·西摩，我把我的领带让给你了。
And before we go, Tim Seymour, I surrender my tie to you.
送给你了，我的一点心意。
It's yours, my gift to you.
最后一笔交易？
Final trade?
哦。
Oh.
最后一笔交易。
Final trade.
是啊。
Oh, yeah.
AEM，马格尼科鹰。
AEM, Magnico Eagle.
欢迎你们，迈克尔和布莱恩。
Nice to have you, Michael and Brian.
非常感谢大家。
Thank you all very much.
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