半决赛史上最佳上半场……耐克发布截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日的财报

随着电话会议继续进行，我们稍后会带来更多分析师对耐克的反应。

We'll have more analyst reaction on Nike later on in the show as the conference call continues.

但现阶段，说实话，我真看不出这季度有什么值得看好之处，蒂姆。

But meantime, your initial I mean, I don't know what there is to like in this quarter at this point, Tim.

但让我担心的不是耐克本身，而是如果你持有其他同类公司股票，这才是真正该警惕的。

Well, but the the thing that concerns me about Nike is what should really have you concerned if you own anything else in the space.

因为消费支出和客流量承压，这可不是耐克一家的问题。

Because, you know, added pressure on discretionary spend and traffic is not a Nike story only.

我明白。

I I understand.

耐克这波真是惨不忍睹，现在简直像到了大清洗的日子，尤其是——你知道的，它的估值居然还变得有点意思了。

Nike, this has been a disaster, and this is now this almost feels, but I'm not gonna tell you this is the day, this almost feels like washout day, especially, you know, because you actually now even have a somewhat interesting valuation.

昨天还完全没这感觉。

It wasn't interesting yesterday.

我的意思是，就在昨天，甚至在这轮下跌之前，它的股价还大概在26倍的预期市盈率附近交易。

I mean, you know, yesterday, even before, after all this move, it was trading somewhere around 26 times forward.

所以我只是担心非必需消费。

So I just worry about discretionary.

我担心运动休闲风。

I worry about athleisure.

我担心丹买下的那些运动鞋。

I worry about all those sneakers Dan buys.

我担心这里的趋势，这些趋势我觉得是疫情留下的后遗症，短期内不太可能恢复。

I worry about, you know, the dynamics here that, you you know, I I think are left over from COVID, and I don't think they're coming back anytime soon.

是的。

Yeah.

露露也提到了北美市场的疲软。

Lulu cited weakness in North America as well.

所以当你把这两者放在一起看，你不得不想，这说明北美市场现在是不是本身就不太行？

So then you have to wonder when you put the two together, what does that say about North America in terms of just being inherently a weak market at this point?

再说，这反映的是消费者本身的问题吗？

Again, does it speak to the consumer here?

这涉及到多个变量的分析。

It's a multivariable analysis.

公司自身也存在一些问题。

There are company specific issues.

时尚潮流本身也在发生长期变化，但我觉得今天的情况像是一个消费者情绪的转折点。当像耐克这样的公司都显示出客流量疲软，再结合当前劳动力市场虽然稳定但并未明显加速——比如看辞职率和职位空缺数据——就能看出消费者可能不太愿意把钱花出去了。

There's a secular fashion trends that are occurring as well, but I do think today serves as something of a consumer checkpoint, and when we have things like Nike that suggest weakness traffic, then we combine that with, I think, a resilient labor market, but not necessarily something that's accelerating when you take a look at, say, quits and the jolts data today, I think there's a sign that the consumer is you know, maybe not necessarily putting its pennies to work in the in the in the market.

是的。

Yeah.

我们说话的时候，股价已经跌了百分之十。

It's down 10% right now as we are as we are talking.

昨天我们跟巴克莱的分析师艾德里安·叶聊过，她是在三月份上调了这只股票的评级，真是选了个糟糕的时机。

We were talking to Barclays analyst, Adrian Yee, yesterday in closing bill overtime, and she had actually upgraded the stock in March, which is terrible timing.

但她提到，耐克在欧洲、中国和北美这三个市场，都面临着来自不同对手的激烈竞争。

But she was saying that on three different fronts, Nike's facing very stiff competition from three different players in Europe, in China, as well as in North America.

是的。

Yeah.

现在有很多品牌，进入这个市场跟耐克竞争的成本并不高。

And there's a lot of players that that doesn't cost them a lot to get on the same stage with Nike.

以前就只有耐克和阿迪达斯两家而已。

It used to just be Nike or Adidas.

只有露露柠檬的业绩，能让耐克的图表看起来好一点。

Lulu is the only chart that makes Nike chart look good.

零售市场已经两极分化了。

It's a bifurcated retail market.

看看泰佩思琦的情况。

Look at Tapestry.

再看看拉夫劳伦。

Look at Ralph Lauren.

这些品牌的表现都更出色。

Those are outperforming.

再看看原始商店的状况。

Look at the raw stores.

TJ Maxx。

TJ Maxx.

如果你看看这些品牌，耐克必须找到一个别人没法轻易复制的突破口。

If you look at all these names, Nike has to do something where they can scale that others don't compete in.

也许是更多科技。

Maybe more technology.

也许是把科技更多融入鞋子里。

Maybe more technology with the shoe.

现在能做鞋、发个社交媒体就能跟耐克同台竞争的人太多了。

They've got there's too many people who could make a shoe and put it on social media and be on the same stage and compete with Nike.

他们需要一个全新的品牌。

They need a fresh brand.

他们需要一个全新的优势。

They need a fresh edge.

未来指引会非常关键。

Guidance is going to be key.

乔什·布朗今天早些时候提到，耐克过去八个季度的业绩都超预期了，但股价却没什么动静，原因就是指引太差。

Josh Brown was making the point earlier today that Nike has beaten in eight of the last quarters and the stock has done nothing because of the guidance.

现在我们就在等这份指引出来。

And here we are waiting the guidance at this point.

我觉得我大概能猜到指引会是什么样。

Well, I I mean, I think I know where the guidance is going.

对。

Yeah.

我之前也听到过关于客流量和非必需消费趋势的担忧。

And and I again, I heard about traffic concerns and and discretionary spend trends.

所以我觉得，如果真要受影响，耐克应该是最严重的，毕竟它是最大的。

So I will say, they should be hurt the most on some level, if they are the biggest.

没人能跟耐克的规模比。

No one's even close to the size of Nike.

而且我觉得，它的品牌影响力依然非常强，也许我想法不对，但我买运动鞋，根本不是冲着科技去的。

I mean, and I still think they have an enormous brand power, and maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not looking for a technology company in my sneaker.

我是说，我明白创新在跑鞋领域确实很重要。

I mean, I understand innovation is important in running shoes.

顺便说一句，我觉得他们已经拿回了不少市场份额。

By the way, I think they've taken a lot of market share back there.

我觉得这更多是个宏观问题，就像洛杉矶那边发生的情况一样。

I think this is a macro story as much as this has been what happened to LA Hills

不过是个百分比而已。

percent though.

我明白你的意思，但目前跌幅已经到35%了。

I get what you're saying, but it's down 35% at this point.

他们得全盘推翻，重头再来。

They've gotta throw everything out, rip up the script, start again.

中国在推动本土品牌。

China's pushing their home Mhmm.

国内品牌。

Domestic brands.

这儿的品牌太多了。

There's too many brands here.

Airbirds。

Airbirds.

十五年前你能想到会有Airbirds吗？

Would you ever think fifteen years ago, Airbirds?

所有鸟。

All birds.

就是那个。

That one.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

其实还有一个

There's actually an

Air One。

air one.

Birds。

Birds.

出新款了。

There's a new one.

Airbirds 是一款电子游戏。

Airbirds was the video game.

现在任何人都能跟耐克竞争了。

That anybody can compete with Nike now.

他们得找一个别人做不到的领域，把市场垄断起来。

They've gotta do something where they corner the market in something that others can't do.

资金非常雄厚。

Very deep pockets.

动用这笔雄厚的资金。

Use the deep pockets.

我们正在整理电话会议中的评论。

We're getting the comments from the conference call.

首席财务官说，三月份开局强劲，但四月中旬开始增速放缓。

The CFO is saying that they saw deceleration in mid April after a strong start in March.

所以，消费者的需求明显变弱了。

So something happened where the consumer got weaker.

他还提到，耐克的全球消费者都面临压力。

He also says Nike's consumers are under pressure around the world.

这些评论显然没有任何积极的信号，对业绩反弹更是毫无帮助。

Certainly, these are not comments that are positive in any way in terms of a backdrop for a turnaround.

也许这就是为什么股价在盘后交易中跌至近期低点的原因。

This is perhaps why we're seeing the stock pretty much trade right now in the after hour session lows.

是的。

Yeah.

等到美国跨国企业公布财报的时候，我们可能会看到这种情况。

We might see that, right, as we get into earnings season for US multinationals.

但如果你回过头来看，想想加油站一加仑汽油的价格发生了什么变化。

But if you go back here, I mean, you think about what happened to a gallon of gas at the pump.

是的。

Yeah.

四月份就是这种情况。

That's what happened in April.

对吧？

Right?

但这不仅仅是国内的问题。

And so and but, you know, this is not just domestic.

想想中国的情况。

I mean, think about China.

我们看到了苹果的情况。

We saw Apple.

他们在中国的业务同比增长了百分之二十以上。

They were up 20% plus year over year in China.

对吧？

Right?

而这边却下降了百分之十二。

And this is down 12%.

所以，如果中国曾经是重要的增长市场，现在已不再是了。

And so, you know, if China has been a big growth area, it's not anymore.

而且出现两位数的下滑，这确实是个大问题。

And the fact that it's, you know, declining double digits is a real problem.

这反映出他们和苹果相比，眼下正面临一些状况。

And it does speak to whatever they have going on relative to, let's say, Apple.

不过我们可能会看到这些价格上涨。

But we're gonna see probably those price increases.

他们不会只在这里。

They're not gonna be just here.

还会遍布全球。

They're also gonna be around the world.

明白了。

Alright.

我们会持续关注电话会议的进展，及时向您更新情况。

We will keep track of what's going on in the conference call, bringing you up to date.

目前，股价已经下跌了大约8%。

Meantime, the shares are down about 8% right now.

接下来，我们将介绍Anthropic如何通过其全新推出的科学产品争取大型制药公司的合作，以及这可能如何改变药物研发格局。

Coming up, Anthropics bid to win over big pharma inside the company's brand new claw to science product and how could shake up the drug discovery space.

此外，比特币今年开局惨淡，加密货币已连续第三个季度下跌，并拖累了相关投资标的。

Plus, Bitcoin's brutal start to the year, the crypto putting in its third straight losing quarter, dragging proxy trades down with it.

接下来，我们来看看需要什么才能重新点燃这场涨势。

What it needs to reignite the rally straight ahead.

别走开。

Do not go anywhere.

《快钱》马上回来。

Fast money's back in two.

欢迎回到《快钱》，今天我们聚焦Anthropic，这家新锐公司正试图加入人工智能药物发现的淘金热。

Welcome back to Fast Money Anthropic, the latest innovator looking to get in on the AI drug discovery gold rush.

今天，这家公司正式推出了Claude Science，这是专为科研人员打造的首款产品。

The company today unveiling Claude Science, its first dedicated product for scientists.

安吉丽卡·皮布尔斯现在就在演播室，为我们带来详细情况。

Angelica Peebles joins us here on set with all the details.

这真让人着迷，安吉丽卡。

This is fascinating, Angelica.

是的，确实很有趣，梅丽莎。

Yeah, it's really interesting, Melissa.

你知道吗，今天他们举办了大型发布会，Anthropic把这叫做科学家的AI工作台，这个平台能连接各种研究数据库，还能针对基因组学和结构生物学等专业领域分析数据。

You know, they had this big event today, and what's happening is that Anthropic is calling this an AI Workbench for Scientists, and this platform connects to tools like research databases, and it actually analyzes data with specialties like genomics and structural biology.

他们的想法是用人工智能加速药物研发，让药物更有效，研发周期更短。

The idea here is to use AI to accelerate drug development, so making drugs better and making them faster.

Anthropic今天在旧金山发布了这个产品，高管们宣布，公司还将启动自己的药物发现项目。

Anthropic was rolling this out, like I said, this event today in San Francisco and they had executives announcing that Anthropic is also going to start its own drug discovery program.

高管们特别强调，这么做是为了确保Anthropic能为药企打造最优秀的模型、工具和产品，毕竟这些药企正是Claude Science的目标客户。

The executives were careful to position this as a way for Anthropic to make sure that it's building the best models, tools, and products for the drug makers that it's trying to sell the Claude Science product to.

他们表示，Anthropic将专注于传统生物制药公司不太关注的罕见病，而且目前还处于早期的临床前研究阶段。

They said that Anthropic will focus on neglected diseases that traditional biopharma companies wouldn't find attractive and that this will be an early stage preclinical work.

如果他们真研发出有潜力的药物，会怎么样？

What happens if they actually come up with a promising drug?

我们问了Anthropic，他们说项目才刚起步，后续进展会再公布，但这个问题确实值得思考，对吧？

Well, we asked Anthropic and they said that they're at the early start of this and that they will share more as the work progresses, but that's the question, right?

我们已经看到不少科技公司试图进入医疗领域。

And we've seen plenty of other tech companies try to get into health care.

比如Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果，这些名字马上就能想到。

You have Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, all those come to mind.

这倒不稀奇，但这个确实值得留意，各位。

So it's not unusual, but this certainly could be an interesting one to watch, guys.

所以Claude Science是给默克的科学家们用的工具吗？

So does Claude Science, is it a tool of, let's say, Merck scientists to discover?

他们是租用这个模型吗？

Do they license the model?

我的意思是，具体是怎么运作的？

Mean, how does

这是一款产品。

it It's a So it's a product.

它基于现有的模型，但集成了你所需的一切功能。

It uses its existing models, but basically it has everything you might need.

它包含了现有的研究数据库供你参考，你也可以上传自己的数据，进行分析，看看分子如何结合，实际发生了什么。

It has the databases of the existing studies that are out there that you can reference, but then you can also take your data, plug it in, analyze it, how is it binding, what's actually happening.

他们认为这样能让你更轻松、更快地了解自己在研发什么，以及它可能如何发挥作用。

They think that that you know, make it easier and faster to see what you're building and how it might work.

你们知道吗，之前那么多云服务发布的时候，整个行业都会立刻做出反应。

You know, what we saw with so many different cloud releases is you see an entire sector just immediately react.

所以我听到这个消息后，马上去看了像查尔斯河实验室这样的公司，结果股价几乎没什么动静。

And so when I heard this news, I immediately went to the likes of a Charles River Laboratories, and there was no reaction pretty much in the stock.

这会取代谁吗？

Does this displace anybody?

说实话，我不确定是否真的会。

You know, I don't know if

它不会直接取代任何人。

it displaces anyone.

还得再看看，我觉得他们其实已经拉了不少公司进来。

It will have to see I mean, I think they actually had a bunch of companies there.

他们请来了百时美施贵宝的首席执行官。

So they had the CEOs of Bristol.

还有诺华的首席执行官，他同时也是他们的董事会成员，据我所知，现场还来了很多其他公司的代表。

They had the CEO of Novartis who's also on their board, and they had all of these other companies, I was told, in the audience.

我觉得制药行业现在兴趣挺大的。

I think you're seeing a lot of interest from pharma.

今天有人在做这事儿吗？

Is anyone doing that today?

我不好说，那些CDMO公司确实有进军药物研发的意愿，这点挺有意思。我也原本以为会看到更多反应，得看看明天有没有动静。不过别忘了亚马逊想进军医疗领域时闹出的动静，大家当时都在猜，所以这事怎么发展还真值得观望。

It's hard for me to say, some of those CDMOs, clearly I think the part about them wanting to get into drug development is interesting, I too thought maybe we would see some more reaction, so we'll have to see tomorrow if anything happens, but remember Amazon wanting to get into health care, and all of the noise around that, and people wondering, so it will be interesting to see how this takes shape.

没错。

That's true.

但话说回来，医疗领域一直都被认为是AI最大的潜在受益者之一。

But, I mean, it's always I mean, healthcare is always a space that's named it's one of the biggest potential beneficiaries of AI.

毫无疑问。

Without question.

我了解到的是，AI驱动的临床一期试验成功率比过去高多了。

And, what I'm understanding is that, you know, AI, at least driven phase one trial success rates are so much higher than what they have been historically.

对吧？

Right?

这得看具体是用来做什么的。

So, it depends on what it is for.

但对我来说，这已经算是有初步验证了。

But, that to me already has some proof of concept.

我觉得单从研发效率来看，对大型药企来说，这肯定能带来显著的短期成本优化，哪怕还没成功呢。

But, I think the efficiency just in terms of R and D alone for big pharma, I mean, this has to be major margin improvement in the short term even without success.

没错。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

你已经能看到实际应用了，不管是今天这个模型，还是我们经常提到的礼来公司，他们简直在全面拥抱人工智能。

And, you're already seeing it whether it's, you know, this model today, one of the companies we talk about all the time, Lilly, I mean, they've been all over AI.

你跟他们任何人聊，都会说他们在整个业务中都在用，不管是研发，还是其他部门。

You talk to anyone there and they say they use it throughout the business, whether it's r and d, whether it's, you know, different parts of the business.

再说，现在这些公司，比如百时美施贵宝也在谈制造环节的应用，所以能用上人工智能的地方其实多得很。

And again, these companies today, Bristol talking about manufacturing, and so there could be so many place so many pieces where they could use it.

但他们会吗

But will they

用Club Science吗？

use Club Science?

还没定。

TBD.

没错。

Right.

安吉莉卡，谢谢。

Angelica, thank you.

安吉莉卡·皮布尔斯。

Angelica Peebles.

接下来，比特币历经重创，但第三季度会不会迎来转机？

Coming up, Bitcoin bruised and battered, but does a reversal of misfortune lie ahead in q three?

我们接下来就来讨论一下加密货币领域的布局策略。

We'll debate positioning in the crypto complex next.

稍后，我们来看看耐克的业绩透露出的消费者动向。

And later, what Nike's results are signaling about the consumer.

多位顶级分析师将立即加入我们，分享他们从电话会议中得出的关键见解。

Top analysts will join us straight ahead with his takeaways from the conference call.

您正在收看的是这家公司的

You're watching the company's

7月16日星期四，CNBC体育与董事会频道携手Fanatics Fest推出《Game Plan》。

Thursday, leading July 16, CNBC the Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for Game Plan.

探索塑造体育与娱乐未来的新锐理念。

Groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请入场邀请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.

欢迎回到《快钱》节目。

Welcome back to fast money.

今年上半年，比特币过得相当艰难。

It has been a brutal first half of the year for Bitcoin.

以太坊、索拉纳以及一大批加密货币和相关股票也都一样。

Same for Ethereum, Solana, and a host of other cryptos and stocks in the crypto orbit.

自去年十月见顶以来，比特币的价格已经腰斩。

Since peaking last October, Bitcoin has now been cut in half.

加密货币相关的股票也在下跌。

Crypto proxy is dropping as well.

策略股自一月以来跌幅超过百分之四十。

Strategy shares dropping more than 40% since January.

Coinbase下跌了百分之三十五。

Coinbase down 35%.

Robinhood下跌了大约百分之十一。

Robinhood off around 11%.

史蒂夫，你现在打算怎么办？

Steve, what do you do now?

你一直在这个领域很活跃。

You've been active in the space.

是的。

Yeah.

问题是，现在整个环境对比特币非常不利。

The problem is there's not the environment is so negative for Bitcoin.

而且随着IPO陆续推出，大家把比特币当成提款机，把钱抽出来投到其他想上市的项目里。

And and with IPOs coming out, it's used as an ATM to get money out of that and into whatever they want as an IPO.

其实不需要太多事情顺利，就已经够了。

There's not a lot that has to go right.

但出问题的事情却一大堆。

There's a lot that's been going wrong.

利率方面他们可能会跟你讲，但你只要看ETF市场就知道，六月份的净流入远远超过其他月份，而且全是来自iBit。

So rates, they'll tell you, but if you just watch the ETF market, the June was the biggest month for net inflow x outflows by a large margin, and it's all from iBit.

我不确定你怎么看待这个现象。

So I don't know what you make of that.

这个ETF规模是大，但其中75%的流出都来自它。

It's a bigger ETF, but it's basically 75% of the outflows.

也许是对冲头寸的一种手段，但这就形成了一个恶性循环：人们先卖掉这些资产，接着不得不出售真正的比特币。

Maybe hedges against positions, but it's a circular weakness where people sell that, then they have to sell the actual.

所以我认为，你需要降息，但接下来还有大量大型IPO要推出，它们依然会持续吸走现金。

So I think for the you need rate cuts, I would assume, but you have mega IPOs that are coming down the pike that are still going to create a sense of cash.

人们看着自己的以太坊或者比特币，心想：我亏了60%。

People look at their ETH, their ETH, or their Bitcoin and say, I'm down 60%.

我可以去买这个IPO，一下就赚20%、30%、40%，或者买一家小型生物科技股，直接翻一倍。

I could buy this IPO and be up twenty, thirty, 40% or buy a a a biotech name, a small cap biotech name and be up a 100%.

相比之下，现在有太多其他地方能更快、更轻松地让你的钱增值，远比比特币划算。

So there's a lot more places that are a lot more accommodative for your money in a quicker turnaround than the had with Bitcoin.

说到最终持有者，他们说准备卖出，或者可能被允许卖出，这关系到我们的策略。

Well, speaking of the ultimate holder is saying that they're gonna sell or they they are going to be allowed to sell potentially, and we're talking about strategy.

我觉得，只要相关股票还没稳定下来，比特币市场就很难真正企稳。

I mean, it feels like until that stock has some source stability, you're not really gonna see stability in the Bitcoin trade.

它

It

感觉马上就要出现一个FTX那样的崩盘了，这些公司根本没理由存在。

feels like there is an FTX moment coming, and there's no reason for these

treasury公司。

treasury companies.

但这些 treasury公司根本没理由存在。

Well, I mean, but there's no reason for these treasury companies to exist.

你看看最大的那几家，它们的持仓已经亏了整整一千亿美元，市值也在不断缩水。

If you look at the biggest ones, I mean, they're down $10,000,000,000 on their holdings, and the market caps are getting low.

它们还搞出一堆花里胡哨的融资手段。

They have all these creative financing things.

它们手里攥着一堆比自己还烂的资产。

They own a bunch of crap that is worse than what they are, you know.

所以我一直在想这个问题。

And so, like, I think about it.

我跟自己说，这事只能往一个方向发展。

I say to myself, this can only go one way.

然后我想到比特币整体，就对自己说，好吧。

And then I think of Bitcoin in general, and I say to myself, okay.

现在唯一还在运转的是什么？

What is the only thing that's working right now?

稳定币。

Stablecoins.

也许吧。

Maybe they are.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我觉得自己的银行服务挺齐全的。

I feel pretty well banked.

我现在根本不需要稳定币。

I don't need a stablecoin right now.

所以我总觉得这些关于去中心化金融的讨论，还有汤姆·李经常在网上的那些说法。

And so I just think all these conversations about DeFi and, you know, Tom Lee is on the network a lot.

我的意思是，你知道，他是比特币的主席。

I mean, you you know, he's the chairman of Bitcoin.

他一直在说，现在还有质押的机会。

He's been making the case that, you know, there's still this staking opportunity.

这是他们处理所购资产的一种方式。

That's one way that they take this asset that they buy.

他们用杠杆放大，诸如此类的做法。

They lever it up, that sort of thing.

但归根结底，如果你用杠杆押注的底层资产大幅下跌，而回报又没出来，迟早会崩盘。

But at the end of the day, if you're down a lot in the underlying that you're levered up to kind of get that upside return and it's not working, sooner or later, it's gonna really, don't know, it's gonna come apart.

接下来，耐克股价在电话会议的盘后交易中仍下跌，会议已经进行了大约半小时。

Coming up, Nike shares are still down in the after hour session of the conference call about thirty minutes underway.

我们会采访一位分析师，他说运动品牌巨头的反弹还需要证明自己。

We'll talk to one analyst who says sportswear giants rebound still has to prove itself.

我们两分钟后回来。

We're back in two.

欢迎回到《快钱》节目，股市延续了昨日涨势，第二季度即将收官。

Welcome back to Fast Money stocks adding to yesterday's gains as the second quarter comes to a close.

道琼斯指数上涨130点，创下新高。

The Dow rising 130 points closing at records.

这是五年来上半年表现最好的一次，涨幅接近9%。

It posted its best first half in five years, up almost 9%.

标普500今天涨了近1%，今年迄今累计上涨9.5%；纳斯达克上涨1.5%，今年至今领涨各大指数，自1月以来涨幅接近13%。

S and P gaining nearly a percent today, now up nine and a half percent year to date, while the Nasdaq rose by a percent and a half, leading the major averages this year with a near 13% gain since January.

强生股价刷新自1944年上市以来的历史新高。

Johnson and Johnson hitting fresh records going all the way back to its IPO in 1944.

尽管今天回调了2%，今年至今仍上涨了23%。

Even with a two percent pullback today, it has climbed 23% so far this year.

康斯特布尔公司因财报表现强劲而股价异动，这家饮料公司营收和利润均超出预期。

And Constellation Brands on the move after earnings, the beverage company beating top and bottom line estimates.

他们的财报电话会定于明天早上8点（东部时间）开始。

That conference call kicks off 8AM eastern time tomorrow.

我看到强生的那些数据时，马上就想到了你。

I saw that J and J stat team, and I thought of you.

是的。

Yeah.

我持有强生很久了，这只股票当初花了很长时间才开始上涨。

I've been long J and J for a long time, and and this is a stock that took a long time to get going.

它现在上涨，我觉得有三个原因。

And and it's it's going for, I think, three reasons.

第一个是滑石粉的阴影问题。

One is that I think the talc overhang.

这涉及到诉讼。

This is litigation.

这事本来挺严重的。

It's a big deal.

按理说确实该是大事，但最近一周左右，出现了一些对公司非常有利的进展。

It should be a big deal, but there's actually been developments that I think are very company friendly in the last week or so.

我觉得正是这一点让股价创下了历史新高，但人们对他们的产品和研发管线充满期待，这确实是个完整的医药故事。

I think that's actually what really took it to the all time high, but there's excitement around product and pipeline, and there really is a pharma story here.

这背后还有一个肿瘤治疗的故事。

There's an oncology story.

至于消费品业务和那里的创新，一直都很稳扎稳打。

I think the consumer product story and and kind of the innovation there is something that's been steady as she goes.

所以从相对估值来看，股价并不便宜，但这家公司确实花了很长时间才走到今天这一步。

So the valuation is not cheap on a relative basis, but it is a case where it's taken a long time to get this thing moving.

我觉得他仍然可以持有，而且完全可以基于医药业务的强劲表现来持有。

I think he can still own it, and and I think he can own it based upon the strength of pharma.

咱们再来看看耐克的情况，现在股价已经回升，跌幅收窄到4%以下。

Let's take another check on Nike here, making a bit of a comeback now down under 4%.

我们刚刚在电话会议上听到了最新的指引。

We're just getting guidance on the conference call.

现在有纽伯格的凯文·麦卡锡加入我们。

Neuberger's Kevin McCarthy joins us now.

他负责覆盖耐克。

He covers Nike.

凯文，很高兴你加入我们。

Kevin, great to have you with us.

你肯定也看到了电话会上公布的这份指引。

I'm sure you saw this guidance, coming out of the the call.

现在预计第二季度收入将下滑低至中个位数，相比第一季度增速有所放缓。

Now expect revenue to be down low to mid single digits q two having a sequential deceleration from q one.

你对这一切怎么看？

What do you make of this all?

我觉得，光看这些结果本身，并不能说明耐克出了问题。

You know, I I don't think the results in and of themselves were Nike ask.

他们实际上基本都达到了或略微超过了预期。

They, you know, essentially, hit or beat everything modestly.

收入落在了下滑2%到4%这个区间的较好一侧。

Revenue kind of on the good end of the down two to 4%.

中国的情况稍微好了一点。

China a little bit better.

成本控制得不错。

Costs were contained.

剔除关税影响后，利润率还算可以。

Margins kind of stripping out the tariff was was fine.

但很明显，这算不上超预期或上调指引。

So but I I you know, but clearly not a beat and raise.

我们也不是冲着这个去的。

That's not what we're playing for.

我们更关注的是财报表层之上的企稳信号。

We're looking for a stabilization that sits above the P and L.

我觉得这还需要不少时间才能实现。

And I think that still is taking a lot of time.

消费者方面，就像电话会上说的，大概在季度中期的时候，整体消费环境出现了下滑。

The consumer is, you know, as they said, the call was about halfway through, but they did cite a kind of a deterioration in the overall consumer backdrop around mid quarter.

我觉得还是有一些亮点的，但他们还得继续努力。

So I think there were some redeeming aspects, but they still have some work to do.

他们还提到，未来六个月不太可能看到环境有明显好转。

They also said we're not expecting the environment to improve meaningfully over the next six months.

是耐克的消费者特别感受到压力，还是所有消费者都在承受压力？

Is this a Nike specific consumer that's feeling pressure, or is this a consumer in general that is feeling pressure?

关于耐克，我想说一点。

I'd say this about Nike.

耐克在消费者心智中的地位依然领先。

Nike still dominates mindshare.

五年前他们的品牌认知度还有60%，去年降到了四成出头，现在总算稳住了。

You know, they went from five years ago, 60% mindshare to the low forties last year, and that's stabilized.

目前大概在四成中期左右吧。

That's that's kind of in the in the mid forties now.

我觉得我们讨论的其实是更大的宏观问题，不过他们在库存管理上确实有一些独特的亮点。

So I think we're talking about a bigger macro concern here, but there were some redeeming aspects, some idiosyncratic redeeming aspects about what they're doing in terms of the inventory situation.

这家公司自从埃利奥特加入后的十八个月里，还没能拿出两个像样的成绩来证明他们的‘立即取胜’策略真的见效了。

This is a company that in the eighteen months that Elliott's been there really hasn't been able to string together two proof points to suggest that their win now strategy is taking root.

但他们确实在跑步品类上做到了。

They did that with running.

现在你可能会说，他们在库存管理上也做到了。

Now you could argue that they've done that with the inventory situation.

这里有个关键细节：我们看到的是销量上涨了，但销售额却持平。

An important nuance here is that what we saw is we saw that units were up, dollars flat.

这之所以重要，是因为他们并没有在大甩卖或者清仓处理。

Why that matters is because you're not seeing fire sales, you know, clearances.

在我看来，这说明他们有能力转守为攻了。

To me that that suggests that they can go on the offense.

现在股价刚跌了三美元，大概到二十美元左右。

Now stock down $3 right now to $2 or so.

我明白。

I get it.

你看，如果我们看下个季度的指引，可能暗示会略低于市场预期，但这并不是重点。

You know, if if if we're looking at the guidance for next quarter, probably suggests a little bit of a shortfall there, relative to consensus, but that's not the story.

重点是，等下个季度他们完全度过关税影响后，利润率才会真正显现。

The story is once they lap the tariff fully next quarter, then we start to see the margin.

这本质上是个利润率的故事，而且他们现在换了新CFO。

This is a margin story, and you obviously have a new CFO in there.

他是个特别注重成本的人。

So, he's a very cost minded individual.

所以我觉得，这正是问题的关键所在。

So I think that's what that that's what it's about.

凯文，我看中国市场的逆风不仅没减弱，反而在加剧。

Kevin, when I look at China, China's headwinds seem to be increasing, not decreasing.

所以未来这越来越会变成一个北美市场的故事。

So this is going to more and more progressively become a North America story.

每次听他们财报电话，我听到的全是关于库存的事。

When you hear them report, I get all the stuff about inventories.

新CEO还能带来转机吗？

Are we past the point where a new CEO helps?

这是否是一次战略转型？我之前说过，耐克资金雄厚。

Is it a strategic shift where I said before Nike has deep pockets?

他们可以切入一个别人没法跟他们竞争的细分市场。

They can go on a different segment that no one else can compete on with Nike.

你怎么看这个说法？

What do you think about that?

关于中国业务，首先回应一下，目前中国贡献了大约15%的利润，占比其实更高，但那里的利润率已经腰斩了。

Well, so first to answer your China piece, I I I think that, you know, 15% of overall earnings right now, but a higher percentage, But they've seen the margins go from, you know, cut 50% there.

我觉得那边还会继续有调整。

I think that there's going to be more changes coming there.

他们提到一些数据，比如部分门店的销售额出现了个位数中较高的增长。

They they cited some proof points about some of the doors that they have touched up on seeing kind of high single digit increases in sales.

但我认为，他们整体的销售渠道布局确实需要大刀阔斧地清理。

But I do think the overall size of their of their points of distribution need to be cleaned up a lot.

至于管理层本身，埃利奥特为整个组织带来了极大的活力，是非常宝贵的资产。

As far as management in of themselves, Elliot is a tremendous asset in terms of really bringing enthusiasm to the overall organization.

新任CFO的加入，应该能带来必要的成本控制意识。

With the new CFO, I think you bring along some kind of cost discipline that's needed.

别忘了，这家公司目前的EBIT利润率只有5.5%，还不到几年前的一半。

Remember, this is a company that has got 5.5% EBIT margins, roughly half where they were several years ago.

所以，接下来的重点肯定会放在这一点上。

So I think the focus is really gonna be on that.

凯文，谢谢。

Kevin, thank you.

凯文·麦卡锡，耐克股价盘后上涨，亏损收窄了大约一半。

Kevin McCarthy, Nike stock up, pairing its losses in the after hours by about half.

目前股价下跌了4%。

It's now down 4%.

接下来，我们将揭晓CNBC今年评选的全美最佳营商州排名。

Coming up, we're counting down to CNBC's annual list of top states for business in this year.

国防产业正成为焦点。

The booming defense industry is taking center stage.

斯科特·科恩正在新墨西哥州现场报道最新的创新动态。

Scott Cohen is live in New Mexico with a look at the latest wave of innovation.

嗨，斯科特。

Hey, Scott.

嗨，梅丽莎。

Hey, Melissa.

没错。

Yeah.

特朗普政府希望为国防拨款一万五千亿美元。

The Trump administration wants 1 and a half trillion dollars for defense.

即使只拿到其中一部分，也会带来更多类似的情况，加剧各州之间竞争——这正是我们每年在‘最佳营商州’榜单中关注的焦点。

Even if they get just some of that, it's going to lead to more situations like this and a new front in the battle between the states that we chronicle every year on top states for business.

我们提到过，有顾问把这种现象称为国防领域的‘太空化’——当巨额资金回流时，变化就会迅速发生。

We tell you about what one consultant calls the spacexification of defense when fast money returns.

欢迎回到《快钱》节目。

Welcome back to Fast Money.

特朗普政府推动国防建设，包括高达1.5万亿美元的预算申请，正在各州之间掀起新一轮争夺商业和就业机会的较量。

Trump administration's defense buildup, which includes a 1 and a half trillion dollar budget request, has opened a new front in the battle between the states for business and jobs.

CBC的斯科特·科恩正在新墨西哥州现场报道，我们即将发布今年CNBC全美最佳营商州排名。

CBC's Scott Cohen is in New Mexico as we prepare to unveil this year's CNBC top states for business.

斯科特。

Scott.

你好，梅丽莎。

Hi, Melissa.

今年新墨西哥州最终能排到第几还不知道，但这里已经拿下了一个大单。

We'll see where New Mexico winds up in our rankings this year, but the state won a big prize here.

这是位于阿尔伯克基以西约30英里处的一片千亩土地，一家叫卡斯特利翁的初创公司正准备在这里建造高超音速导弹。

This is a thousand acre site about 30 miles outside of Albuquerque where a startup called Castellion is preparing to build hypersonic missiles.

卡斯特利翁由三位前SpaceX高管创立，他们想为武器制造领域复制埃隆·马斯克公司在航天领域做的事——快速、低成本、大批量生产。

Castellion was founded by three former SpaceX executives trying to do for weapons kind of what Elon Musk's company did for space that is producing fast, affordably, and in big numbers.

他们最先要解决的就是找一个制造场地。

And one of the first orders of business was finding a manufacturing site.

哪里能快速推进？

Where can we move fast?

哪里能拿下一大块地？

Where can we secure a large site?

因为这种规模的生产需要很大的空间。

Because we need a lot of space to do this sort of scale manufacturing.

哪里又能找到合适的人才和劳动力，能迅速把团队配齐、把产能拉起来？

And where can we find the right talent, the right workforce that can staff this site and bring us to scale quickly?

还有，

And,

新墨西哥州完全符合所有要求，他们这么说。

New Mexico really checked all boxes, they say.

不仅有个随时可以动工的场地，政府也很配合，附近国家实验室还提供了人才资源。

Not only did it have this shovel ready site and a very cooperative state government, it also had talent from the nearby national labs.

选址专家表示，这种机会会一再出现。

And site selection experts say this is gonna be the kind of opportunity that comes up again and again.

这正是美国各州在商业竞争力方面衡量的关键因素。

And it's the things that we measure in America's top states for business.

你可以关注我们的进展，了解更多关于卡斯特利安的信息，以及各州的竞争力排名，看看哪个州是全美最佳商业选址。

You can follow our journey, read more about Castellian and everything about competitiveness, and find out where your state ranks and what is the top state for business.

我们将在下周，也就是7月9日公布结果。

We will reveal it next week, July 9.

梅丽莎。

Melissa.

斯科特，你有没有想过，一旦卡斯特利安在新墨西哥州建厂，会不会带动当地形成一个小型的航天经济圈？

Is there a thinking, Scott, that once Castellian goes there and and builds its its plant that that it's going to start a whole little sort of mini space economy in New Mexico?

确实有这方面的潜力，当地也已经有一些基础，但更重要的是迅速行动、快速规模化推进。

Well, there's some of that, and they have some of that here, but it's also really just a matter of getting up and going and going fast and at scale.

这才是最令人印象深刻的地方。

And that's the really impressive thing here.

他们今年一月才破土动工，现在已经建好了15栋楼，生产进度也快赶上了。

They only broke ground here in January, and they already have 15 buildings that are built, and they're well on their way to getting production done.

这才是真正的变化。

And that's the change.

现在不再是那种老办法了——找家防务承包商，给个固定任务，让他们慢慢建、慢慢算成本、再分包出去。

It's it's not anymore the, you know, find the defense contractor, give them a fixed thing, and let them build their build their costs and everything and subcontract and take their time.

那种做法已经行不通了。

That doesn't fly anymore.

这才是五角大楼正在推行的新模式。

This is the sort of the new model that the Pentagon is, is putting into place.

所以，新墨西哥州的经济肯定会受益，其他州要是想跟上，也可能陆续加入。

And so, yeah, more economy certainly here in New Mexico and maybe in other states as well that'll try and get it on the act.

对了，网站是 topstates.cnbc.com。

By the way, the website, topstates.cnbc.com.

我们很期待知道你下一步会去哪儿，斯科特。

We look forward to seeing where you'll end up next, Scott.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好的。

Okay.

斯科特·科恩。

Scott Cohen.

我想知道，日元兑美元跌至四十年低点，是否会有干预措施？这对海外投资意味着什么？

Tell me, have more pain for the yen as the currency slumps to forty year lows against the dollar, whether intervention is in the cards, and what it all means for investing overseas.

接下来就聊这个。

That is next.

两分钟后继续快速资金。

More fast money in two.

欢迎回到《快速资金》。

Welcome back to fast money.

日元兑美元跌至四十年来的最低水平。

The Japanese yen tumbling to its lowest level against a dollar in forty years.

这是自1986年以来的最低点。

Its lowest level since 1986.

那时候《壮志凌云》刚上映。

That's when the movie Top Gun hit the box office.

日元在过去一年多持续走弱，现在投资日本股市还合适吗？毕竟日元贬值对这些股票是有利的。

The yen has been on a steady decline for over a year, so is now still a good time to jump into Japanese stocks, which of course is they benefited from this weakening currency.

我觉得合适。

I think it is.

在聊日本之前，咱们先看一组数据——今年到目前为止，也就是第二季度。

And just before we talk about Japan, you know, 45%, we're talking about the year to date second quarter.

第二季度里，全球指数中有45%在本币计价下创下了历史新高。

45% of all global indices in local in local currency terms hit all time highs in the second quarter.

这种局面自2007年以来还是第一次，而2007年正是上一轮国际投资黄金期的顶峰。

This trade and this first time since 2007, which was really the last great, you know, golden period for international investing.

我认为我们现在才刚刚起步。

And I think we're in the earlier stages of it.

我管理一只国际ETF。

I run an international ETF.

日本政府正在对战略性行业进行投资。

Japan, the government is investing in strategic sectors.

人工智能的增长，还有科技产业链的其他环节，都非常重要。

AI growth, but also other parts of of the technology chain, very important.

政府也在鼓励本地散户投资本国股市。

Government's also incenting local retail to invest in their own equity markets.

我觉得这方面还有很大的空间。

I think there's a lot more of that to go.

过去十年，日本在公司治理和改革方面下了很大功夫，现在终于体现在每股收益的提升上了。

Corporate governance and corporate reform as geared towards governance has been a big deal in Japan over the last decade, and it's paying fruits now on the EPS side.

我知道在那里投资可能让人觉得有点紧张。

I understand it could be scary to be investing there.

我觉得日本央行必须加息。

I think the BOJ has to raise rates.

干预市场是一回事。

It's one thing to intervene in markets.

我觉得他们必须加息，而且已经加过了，我觉得还得再加一次。

I think they have to hike rates, and I think they already have, and I think they need to go again.

我觉得这会推动股市进一步上涨。

And I think that's something that will drive the equity market higher.

好的。

Alright.

接下来是最后几笔交易。

Up next, final trades.

最后交易时间了，蒂姆。

Final trade time, Tim.

国际投资。

International investing.

因为我觉得推荐我自己的ETF有点不妥，所以我建议你买ACWX。

And because I think it would be tacky to recommend my own ETF, IDEVO, I'm gonna tell you to buy ACWX.

你刚才说的是IDEVO吗？

It was IDEVO, you said?

对。

Yes.

MARTA。

MARTA.

面向长期耐心投资者的超大规模云服务商。

Hyperscalers for the patient, long time that's

一

one

这正是

that's the

股票，也许它差到反而

stock and maybe it's so bad that it's

开始变好了。

the starting to be good.

史蒂夫，我正在

Steve, I'm

我要向斯科特·科恩致敬。

gonna give a hat tip to Scott Cohen.

我觉得洛克希德·马丁继续留在防务领域是明智之选。

I'm gonna go with Lockheed Martin staying at defense complex.

感谢收看《快马财经》。

Thank you for watching Fast Marta.

很高兴有你一起观看。

Great to have you.

马特和金钱，吉姆·克莱默，现在去搜一搜。

Matt and Money, Jim Kramer, search right now.

《快马财经》所有嘉宾表达的观点均为个人意见，不代表CNBC及其母公司或关联公司的立场，这些观点可能此前已在电视、广播、互联网或其他媒体上发布。

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.

您不应将本播客中表达的任何观点视为具体的投资建议或操作策略，而仅应将其视为个人观点的表达。

You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific ment to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.

这些观点基于Fast Money参与者认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司并不保证其完整或准确，因此不应以此为依据做出决策。

Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

如需查看完整的Fast Money免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer。

To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/fastmoneydisclaimer.

7月16日星期四，CNBC Sport与Boardroom将携手Fanatics Fest，带来这场赛事策划盛会。

Thursday, July 16, CNBC Sport and Boardroom join Fanatics Fest for game plan.

探讨塑造体育与娱乐未来的新锐理念。

Groundbreaking ideas shaping the future of sports and entertainment.

想获得邀请？请前往cnbcevents.com/gameplan申请。

Request your invite at cnbcevents.com/gameplan.