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是什么让你有信心去做一件前所未有的事情？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不畏惧失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓创新的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我的一个
One of my
最喜欢的建议是，想想你老板的老板需要什么。
favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以有很多很多不同的表现形式。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，
Life is short, and
你必须志存高远，才能成就大事。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
新节目每周二在您收听播客的平台上线。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
直播地点位于纽约时代广场的纳斯达克市场现场。
Live in the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square.
这是快钱。
This is fast money.
今晚的节目安排如下。
Here's what's on tap tonight.
等待终于结束了。
The wait is over.
唐纳德·特朗普终于公布了退出美联储的人选，但市场对凯文·沃什有何期待？
Donald Trump finally announcing the pick to leave the Fed, but what should markets expect from Kevin Warsh?
是与通胀作斗争，还是满足总统所呼吁的降息？
A fight against inflation or the rate cuts the president has been calling for?
我们将就此展开辩论。
We'll debate that.
七巨头中有一半的财报已经公布，但还有一些大公司尚未发布。
And half of Mag seven earnings are in the books, but some big names still to come.
过去几天，我们从人工智能交易中学到了什么？下周对谷歌和亚马逊又该有何期待？
What did we learn about the the AI trade in the past few days, and what should we expect from Alphabet and Amazon next week?
此外，像Roblox这样的游戏股会成为人工智能热潮下的下一个牺牲品吗？
Plus, could gaming stocks like Roblox be the next victim of the AI boom?
比特币持续下跌，沃尔玛和塔吉特的新任首席执行官将于周日上任。
Bitcoin continues to break down, and new CEOs at Walmart and Target take the helm on Sunday.
这些领导层变动将对公司和股价产生什么影响？
What will the leadership changes mean for the companies and the stocks?
我是梅丽莎·李，为您从纳斯达克B演播室现场直播。
I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq.
今晚的演播室嘉宾有蒂姆·塞缪尔、塞布拉索、博诺、艾森和迈克·科。
The desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Seabraso, Bono and Eisen, and Mike Coe.
我们首先关注市场久候已久的消息。
We start off with the news that markets have long been waiting for.
特朗普总统任命前美联储理事凯文·沃尔什接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任央行行长。
President Trump selecting former Fed governor Kevin Walsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chairman of the central bank.
今天早上通过True Social发布的这一消息，源于特朗普多年来批评鲍威尔降息速度太慢，甚至曾有司法部对美联储大楼翻新展开刑事调查。
The announcement via True Social this morning comes after years of Trump criticizing Powell for not lowering rates fast enough and even a criminal investigation by the DOJ over Central Bank renovations.
股市收盘下跌，但已从当日低点回升。
Stocks closing the day down, though off their lows of the session.
标普500指数本周实现上涨，所有主要指数在一月份均录得涨幅，但其他市场正酝酿着真正的疑问，而长期国债利率则小幅上升。
The S and P managing a gain for the week in all major indices up in January, but a real question brewing in other markets while longer term Treasuries ticked higher.
两年期国债收益率触及两周来的最低水平，美元则从四年低点反弹，创下自七月以来最佳单日表现，这暗示市场可能认为美联储将比预期更鹰派。
The two year rate hit its lowest level in two weeks, and the dollar rebounded from four year lows, notching its best day since July, suggesting maybe the market thinks worse, maybe more hawkish than expected.
因此，问题来了：我们会见到哪一个凯文·沃尔什？
So that begs the question, which Kevin Worsch will we get?
鹰派主张对抗通胀，可能会维持高利率，而鸽派则会实施特朗普所希望的降息。
The hawk has rallied against inflation may keeps keep rates high or the dove who will make the cuts Trump wants.
更多内容，我们请来史蒂夫·利斯曼。
For more, let's bring in Steve Leesman.
史蒂夫还带来了一些米歇尔·鲍曼的最新动态。
And Steve's also got some headlines from Michelle Bowman.
史蒂夫？
Steve?
是的。
Yeah.
在谈这位新人之前，我们先来看看几位现有官员的情况。
Just before we get to the new guy, let's get to some of the existing folks here.
美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼表示，她预计今年将有三次降息，唯一不确定的是实施这些降息的具体时机。
Fed's Fed governor Michelle Bowman says she sees three cuts this year with the only question about the timing of implementing the cuts that she sees.
她仍认为就业存在下行风险，指出劳动力市场依然脆弱；她表示，本可以在上次会议上投票支持降息，因为政策仍略具限制性，但她也看到了就业市场的一些稳定迹象，正如声明中所提及的。
She still sees downside risk to employment, says the labor market remains vulnerable, could have voted, she said, for a cut at this last meeting because policy is still modestly restrictive, but she has seen some signs of stabilization in employment as was mentioned in the statement.
她说，美联储有能力放慢步伐，暂时保留政策工具。
The Fed, she says, can afford to take time and keep policy powder dry for a little while.
她提到，在三月会议之前，美联储还将收到两份就业报告和通胀报告。
She does mention the Fed gets two jobs reports and inflation reports before the March meeting.
所以，对她而言，这可能比市场所认为的更值得关注。
So maybe that's more alive for her than it is in the market.
与此同时，这位55岁的继任者上任后，市场立即预期他会降息。
Meanwhile, the 55 year old worse would take the helm with immediate expectations that it would cut rates.
但问题是，他究竟能降多少息？
But the question is how much cutting can he really do?
总统在宣布时说：‘我认识凯文很久了，毫不怀疑他将成为最伟大的美联储主席之一，也许是史上最出色的。’
The president saying in his, announcement that I have known Kevin for a long period of time and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the great fed chairman, maybe the best.
除此之外，他简直就是完美人选，永远不会让你失望。
On top of everything else, he is central casting, and he will never let you down.
你不得不怀疑，总统是否在自我安慰，以确保沃什不会让他失望，因为至少目前市场正是这样定价的。
You have to wonder if the president is reassuring himself that Worsch won't let him down because that's how the market is priced at least right now.
期货市场仅在沃什上任时才定价为降息。
Futures markets have only priced in a cut when Worsch takes office.
那就是6月的3.49。
That's the $3.49 in June.
到年底再降一次。
And another one by year end.
那就是12月的3.13。
That's the $3.13 in December.
然后到2027年走势趋于平稳。
And then it goes sideways into 2027.
当然，很多事情可能发生。
Of course, a lot can happen.
经济状况可能会改变。
The economy could change.
但如果美国经济真如总统所宣传的那样良好，那么他的新任主席似乎不太可能满足他想要的低利率和降息。
But if The US economy does as well as the president advertises, will, it seems doubtful that his new chair will give him the low rates and the cuts he so desires.
梅丽莎？
Melissa?
嗯，委员会本身也是一个因素。
Well, there's out there's there's the element of the committee.
我的意思是，委员会可能不会投票支持降息。
I mean, the committee may not vote for rate cuts.
而且，即使他上任后成功推动了一次降息，美联储的信誉问题也可能在市场中引发连锁反应。
And then there's just this this notion that if he does get into office and manage to get through a rate cut, the question about Fed credibility, could really cause ripples in the market.
你知道，梅丽莎，除了委员会，还有更强大的债券市场。
You know, there's the committee, Melissa, but there's also the much more powerful bond market.
对吧？
Right?
如果你关注杰夫·冈拉克，他说美联储是跟随市场的。
And if you follow Jeff Gunlak, who, you know, says that the Fed follows the market.
我不确定这是否完全正确。
I don't know if that's a 100% true.
我认为杰夫发表的观点有更多的来回反复。
I think there's a little bit more back and forth that Jeff puts out.
但总的来说，追随杰夫·冈拉克的建议并以此赚钱，是个不错的策略。
But but in general, it's not a bad trick to to to follow what Jeff Gundlach says and make money that way.
因此，债券市场将限制他能采取的行动。
And and so the bond market is gonna constrain what he can do.
而且凯文对此心知肚明。
And and and Kevin knows this.
对吧？
Right?
他长期与斯坦·德鲁肯米勒共事，而后者是历史上最伟大的投资者之一。
He's been working with Stan Druckenmiller for a very long time under one of the best, investors of all time.
凯文·沃什根本不可能走得比市场允许的更远。
And there's just no way that Kevin Worsch can go further than the market will let him go.
而且，正如你所指出的，梅丽莎，他的行动也不会比委员会允许的更进一步。
And also, as you suggest, Melissa, with that feedback further than his committee will let him go.
是的。
Right.
史蒂夫，谢谢。
Steve, thank you.
史蒂夫·利斯曼。
Steve Leesman.
很高兴。
Pleasure.
你如何看待这次选择以及市场的反应？
What do you make of the pick, and the market reaction?
我认为，市场反应必须放在背景下来看，因为美元在短期内被严重超卖。
Well, I I I think the market reaction has to be taken in the context if we had a dollar that was so oversold in a short term basis.
我的意思是，美元今年一路下跌了近2%。
I mean, the dollar was down almost 2% this year in a straight line.
我不认为凯文·沃尔什是今天美元反弹的主要原因，尽管有各种可能的理由。
I don't think that Kevin Walsh was a major reason why the dollar rallied today, although give it, any number of reasons.
我认为史蒂夫指出的这一点非常重要，他并非一定要成为一个教条主义者。
I I think what Steve points out is very important, and he's refuted to not necessarily be an ideologue.
我认为今天很有趣，因为今天公布了PPI数据，这实际上让我觉得，关于能否重回通胀目标的担忧是完全有道理的，而且中间品价格是我们尚未完全感受到关税带来的全面传导影响的因素。
I think it's fascinating that today's the day on a day when we had a PPI number that frankly tells me that fears of getting back or not getting back to an inflation target are very much warranted and that inter intermediate good prices are things that we haven't really felt the total fall through and the flow through from tariffs.
所以，我不是说通胀已经失控，但我们在今天这个PPI数据对美联储不利的日子发布这一消息——如果有人希望降息的话。
So, I mean, I'm not saying inflation's run out of control, but we get this announcement on a day when PPI today was not the Fed's friend if there's someone that's looking to cut.
所以我认为有必要澄清一些事情。
So I think it's important to get some stuff out.
我很欣赏他对沃什先生将如何履行职责所采取的平衡且理性的态度，因为我认为他确实会做到。
I appreciate the balanced and and rational approach to how mister Worsch is gonna do his job because I think he will.
他在这个领域已经很久了。
He's been around a long time.
他一直活跃在市场中。
He's been around markets.
我认为特朗普意识到一个重要的动态。
I think there's an important dynamic that Trump recognizes.
他需要一个能够通过国会、获得参议院任命并至少获得批准的候选人。
He needs to have a candidate that also can get through congress and get through a senate that needs to appoint him and and at least approve him.
过去几周的情况表明，这对特朗普来说有多重要。
And that's kind of what's been shown in the last few weeks how important that is to Trump.
根据蒂姆的观点，最重要的是，你需要一个不是特朗普傀儡的人。
Well, the most important thing to Tim's point is that you needed someone who's not a Trump puppet.
没人会说沃什是特朗普的傀儡。
And there's no way anyone's gonna say that Warsh is a Trump puppet.
他可能会从鹰派转向鸽派，但他自2006年以来就一直在那里。
He might tilt from hawkish to dovish, but he's been there since o six.
他经历过金融危机。
He's seen the great financial crisis.
他经历过许多其他危机。
He's seen a number of other crises.
他经历过新冠疫情。
He's seen COVID.
他并不支持大规模的量化宽松。
He was not a proponent of large QE.
所以我认为，这正是大多数关注美联储的人所不希望看到的。
So I think that's what most people looking
美联储不希望再有更多的量化宽松。
at the Fed don't want more of.
我们从危机前约9万亿美元的资产负债表——等等，我应该说，危机前大约是4万亿。
We went from a $9,000,000,000,000 balance sheet or or I should say before pre crisis, I think it was around 4.
我们后来增长到了9万亿。
We went to 9.
现在，我们降到了大约6万亿。
Now, we're down around sixes.
我认为他可能会把它保持在这一水平。
I think he's probably gonna keep it right there.
我认为没什么好担心的。
I don't think there's anything to worry about.
他将会让民主党与共和党、鹰派与鸽派都感到可以接受。
He's gonna be palatable for both the Democrats and the Republicans and both the Hawks and and the doves.
所以我觉得这是一个非常好的人选。
So I think it was a great pick.
他没有选择一个更鸽派的人选，这让我感到意外。
It was surprising to me that he didn't go with someone a little more dovish.
让我们继续收听CNBC特约评论员、杰富瑞首席市场策略师大卫·泽尔沃斯的见解。
Let's get more from CNBC contributor David Zervos, the chief market strategist at Jefferies.
大卫去年曾是美联储主席的早期候选人之一。
David was one of the early contenders for Fed chair last year.
大卫，很高兴见到你。
David, great to see you.
我不知道你是感到沮丧还是如释重负，但暂且放下这些，你对这个任命怎么看？
Don't know if you're upset or relieved, but putting that aside, what do you make of the pick?
你知道，我们刚才在上一个小时与Vital Knowledge的亚当·克里索福利交谈过，他说，这个任命在市场层面其实有一个小小的负面影响。
You know, we were speaking to Adam Crissoffulli of Vital Knowledge earlier, in in the previous hour, and he said, you know, there's a a small market negative aspect to this in that.
沃什希望彻底改革美联储。
Warsh wants to shake up the Fed.
他在接受另一个电视台采访时说过，要‘打破头’。
He said something in a in an interview with another network about breaking heads.
所以他想重新审视这些模型。
So he wants to reexamine the models.
重新审视各项事务的运作方式。
Look at relook at how things are done.
这样做会带来什么风险吗？
Is there any risk introduced by that?
梅丽莎，我认为我们应该退一步，想想所有候选人，我觉得所有候选人在这些问题上都表达了相似的观点：他们希望质疑美联储的运作方式，质疑这些博士们在做什么，以及这些模型如何既辜负了他们自己，也辜负了其充分就业和价格稳定的目标。
Melissa, I think, I mean, we should step back and think about all the candidates, and I think all the candidates kind of said the same thing along those fronts that they wanted to kinda question how the Fed does business, what all these PhDs are doing, how the models have failed both them and and their mandate of of maximum employment and price stability.
我觉得有很多
I think there are a lot
很好的问题，而凯文正是开始回答这些问题的合适人选，我认为自从他2011年离开后，他就一直在深入思考这些问题。
of great questions, and Kevin's a great person to begin to answer them, and I think he's thought a lot about it since he left back in 2011.
所以，我只是想把这些都放在一个更全面的视角来看：这些候选人是一群非凡的人，我从一开始就说过，能被纳入这个群体对我来说简直是一种荣幸。
So I I would just kinda put it all in perspective that these are this is an amazing group of candidates, and I said that from the beginning that that what what a what a treat it was for me to even be included in it.
我觉得我们很幸运能有凯文这样的人，同样，如果有里克或者凯文·哈塞特这样的人，我们也一样幸运。
And I just think we are we're lucky to have someone like Kevin, we and would have been lucky to have someone like Rick or Kevin Hassett as well.
他们都是绝佳的人选，一定会表现出色。
They are fantastic picks, and they will do a great job.
我觉得市场其实已经在向你传递这个信号了。
And I think the market is kinda telling you that.
尽管很多人期待市场会出现看跌或负面反应，尤其是长期利率方面，但市场实际上并没有太大反应，这和许多人的预期并不一致。
The market didn't respond that much to this even though a lot of people wanted to have this bearish response or negative response the long end, you know, it wasn't it wasn't what many had thought.
我的意思是，市场反应冷淡，或者根本没有反应，这是否说明我们其实并不清楚他最终能做成什么？
I mean, is the the market reaction or the lack of market reaction, does that really tell you that we don't really know what he's gonna be able to do at the end of the day?
我的感觉就是这样。
I mean, that that's what it seems to me.
记住，梅丽莎，我认为我们所有人，甚至总统本人，对新任主席上任后能做的事情都有点高估了。
Remember, Melissa, I think we all have, and maybe the president even has, a little bit of a elevated view of what a chair can do when they walk in.
那个委员会还有其他11个人，每人一票。
There's 11 other people on that committee, and it's one person, one vote.
你得花很多功夫去说服别人。
You have to do a lot of convincing.
如果你想让这个委员会显著偏离当前的倾向，你得做大量的说服工作。
You have to do a lot of persuading if you wanna move this committee in a significant way away from the tendency that it's sitting at today.
所以，我的意思是，凯文是个出色的演说家。
So, I mean, Kevin's a great orator.
他是个杰出的思想者，也许他会取得成功。
He's a great thinker, and, you know, maybe he'll have success.
我认为，凯文·哈塞特、里克·里德或其他名单上的许多人，也都可能取得巨大成功。
I think Kevin Hassett or Rick Reeder or many of the others on that list could have also had great success.
在我看来，我们很幸运能有这些所有的人选，也很幸运有凯文在那儿。
We're lucky to have had all of these picks in my opinion and we're lucky to have Kevin there.
他拥有许多人所不具备的经验，我相信他曾在董事会任职五年。
He has the experience that many did not have being there on the board for five years, I believe.
他对全球金融危机以来所做的一切都保持着健康的质疑态度，他对那段时期有很多批评意见，随后也对我们在新冠疫情危机中所学到的经验进行了反思。
And he a healthy questioning of all of what has been done over both the global financial crisis, where he had a lot of criticisms, and then what we learned over the COVID crisis.
所以我认为，现在就对此大惊小怪很可能不太合适，我们所有人都应该庆幸，我们整体上拥有如此合格的人才来掌舵美联储。
So I I I think it's making a a big deal out of this early is probably unlikely, and we should all be thanking our sort of lucky stars that we have such qualified people overall to to sort of man the the ship at the Fed.
我觉得，当然，不要过于纠结过去，但我们确实见过一些相当糟糕的候选人陆续进入美联储大楼，甚至有人会说，现在还有人留在那里。
I think, you know, not to not to get, you know, too focused on the past, but we've had some pretty poor candidates roll through the Federal Reserve Building, and one might even argue some still there.
在我看来，这相比许多曾经在位、甚至现在仍在位的人而言，是一个巨大的进步。
And this is a huge step up over many that that have been there and are are there now, in my opinion.
大卫、蒂姆，你们不妨扮演一下你们可能曾经扮演的角色，但让我们现在来扮演市场本身，分析一下我们当前的通胀状况，以及市场对美联储的预期。
David, Tim, so play the role that maybe you you might have played or but let's let's play the role of really the market now and and interpreting both where we are with inflation, but also where the market is positioned for a fed.
坦率地说，我们目前看到一些相当强劲的增长数据，而今天公布的PPI数据在我看来，虽然是个一次性事件，却表明中间产品仍存在上行压力，这种压力可能还会持续传导。
And frankly, where we are seeing some pretty solid growth numbers and and where, again, today, we had a PPI number that that to me in this in a in a one off says there's some upward pressure on intermediate goods that could still feed through.
你认为市场对此已经定价到什么程度了？
Where do you think the market has priced this?
你如何看待这个通货膨胀精灵的平衡态势？
Where do you view this balance of of, that inflation genie?
但总体来看，宏观数据相当稳健。
And and ultimately, though, pretty solid macro.
我的意思是，美联储是落后于形势了，还是应该保持观望？
I mean, is the Fed behind the curve or or or should they be sitting tight?
我认为，这是我们长期以来经历过的最引人入胜的宏观环境之一。
I think it's one of the most fascinating macro environments we've been in in a very long time.
我们经历了惊人的增长，不仅去年2025年如此，实际上2023年和2024年也是增长强劲的年份，而失业率却一直在上升。
We've had incredible growth, not just this past year in 2025, but actually '23 and '24 were great growth years, And the unemployment rate's been rising the whole time.
这是一个非常不寻常的时期：增长强劲、股市坚挺、盈利丰厚，但就业创造却非常有限。
It's just such an unusual period of incredible growth, strong equity, strong earnings, strong profits, and just not a lot of job creation.
我觉得里克·里德在这方面做了很多分析，他之前就深入探讨过这些问题。
And I I think, you know, Rick Reeder talked a lot about that in in some of his, analysis going into all of this.
我认为还有不少其他评论员也一直在关注这一点。
I think a number of other, commentators have pushed on it.
我当然也一直在关注这个问题。
I've certainly pushed on it.
我认为这是一个非常不寻常的时期，而且我认为国家经济委员会主任哈森曾表示，看。
I think it makes for a pretty unusual time, And I think NEC director Hasson has said, look.
这是供给侧的增长。
This is supply side growth.
从长期来看，我们看到的通缩压力比通胀压力更大，因为这种增长源于生产率的提升。
We're seeing more disinflationary pressures over the long run than inflationary pressures because it's coming from productivity.
所以我认为凯文——凯文·沃什——会接受这些观点，他本身就是上世纪90年代格林斯潘时代类似情况的研究者。
So I think Kevin will be this Kevin, Kevin Worsch will be open to those ideas and kind of is a student of the Greenspan era in the nineties when we had this last.
因此，我对我们不会陷入‘强劲增长就该提前加息’这种想法感到乐观。
So I'm optimistic that we're not gonna get too caught up in this idea that, oh, strong growth is some reason why we need to be preemptively hiking.
我认为这是一种错误，而且我相信凯文不会犯这样的错误。
I I think that's a mistake, and I think I don't think Kevin will be making that mistake.
我认为我们有很多理由对通胀下降的程度以及长期通胀预期的稳定性感到振奋。
I think we have a lot of reasons to be excited about how far inflation has come down and how stable long run inflation expectations have been.
在整个新冠疫情后的通胀冲击期间，这些预期一直异常稳定。
They've been unbelievably stable throughout all of this inflation shock post COVID.
所以对我来说，通胀方面的职责基本上已经完成了。
So to me, the inflation side of the mandate is more or less.
我知道核心PCE现在处于3%，但之所以基本上完成了，是因为通胀预期依然牢牢锚定在2%左右。
I know we're sitting at 3% in core PC, but it's more or less done only because inflation expectations just remain so solidly anchored in and around 2%.
当你查看从TIPS市场到收益率曲线再到调查数据的每一项数据时，都会发现通胀预期在这场混乱中表现得异常清晰。
When you look at every piece of data from the tips market to the yield curve to the survey data, it just it's just remarkable how how clean inflation expectations came through this mess.
嘿，大卫，你知道里克·里德提出的一个有趣观点，进一步说明了你的解释：美联储在工具箱里对通胀的实际影响其实不大，但对抵押贷款利率的影响却更大。
Hey David, you know Rick Reeder brought up an interesting point just to further your explanation on this that the Fed doesn't really have much effect on inflation in their toolbox, but they do have more of an effect on mortgage rates.
你能进一步阐述这个观点吗？
Can you extend on that thought?
我的意思是，里克说得完全正确。
I I mean, I think Rick's absolutely right.
他们确实有很大的能力影响收益率，我认为财政部也是如此。
They they do have a lot of ability to move on on yields, and I think the treasury.
我认为，财政部长贝森已经表明，他愿意利用受监管的政府支持企业资产负债表，作为财政部资产负债表的一部分来推动这一点。
I think secretary Besson has shown that he's willing to use the GSE balance sheets, are part of the balance sheet of the treasury under conservatorship to try to drive that as well.
所以我认为在这方面还有很多可以做的。
So I think there's there's a lot you can do there.
但我对通胀问题稍有不同看法，因为从长远来看，长期利率的最大组成部分之一就是通胀预期。
But I I would push back a little bit on the inflation because at the end of the day, one of the biggest components of long term interest rates is inflation expectations.
而且，again，这些预期仍然被很好地控制着。
And, again, they are very well contained.
因此，我认为即使不进行大幅降息，我们也有空间降低抵押贷款利率，只需推动财政部希望通过GSEs进行的抵押贷款购买，或许调整GSEs为抵押贷款提供担保时收取的一些费用结构等。
So I I think we have some room to bring mortgage rates down even without seeing significant rate cuts, just, you know, driving some of the the mortgage purchases that the treasury wants to do through the GSEs, maybe changing some of the fee structure and the like that the GSEs charge to guarantee the mortgages.
但你知道，我们需要以一种不同的方式来思考住房负担能力问题。
But, you know, we need we need to really think about housing affordability in a different way.
我们需要思考人们如何获得首付款，年轻人如何进入住房市场，更重要的是，我们需要让就业前景明朗起来，因为正是那些年轻的购房者——那些感到愤怒、在去年11月大选中因不满而离开共和党的人——在说：嘿，我们需要找到一条切实可行的前进道路。
We need to think about how people get down payments, how youth can access the housing market, and more importantly, we just need kind of the job picture to clear up because it's really those younger homebuyers, the ones that are sort of angry, and are voting, wick their feet a little bit in the last election in November away from the Republican Party that are saying, hey, you know, we need to figure out a path forward here that works.
而当我们还背负着学生贷款时，这种情况显然行不通。
And this, you know, this isn't really working when we have student debt.
我们还有信用卡债务。
We got credit card debt.
我们有了学位，却还是付不起房子的首付款，这个抵押贷款市场根本无法触及。
We've got a degree, and we're still not able to get a down payment for a house, and this mortgage market's inaccessible.
所以必须有人提出一些好的方案，市面上其实有很多方案，美联储会参与其中，但我认为这更多会来自政府而非美联储。
So someone's gotta come up with some good plans, and there are a lot of them out there, And the Fed will be part of that, but I think it'll come more from the administration than the Fed.
好的，大卫，很高兴见到你。
Alright, David, great to see you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
总是很愉快。
Always a pleasure.
好的，那么迈克，你对战争及其对市场的影响怎么看？
Alright, so Mike, what's your take on wars and and put in the context of the markets?
我的意思是，每天市场都有很多疯狂的波动。
I mean, seemed like every day there are lots of crazy moves in the market.
但到了周末，标普500指数基本持平。
At the end of the week, though, we're basically flat on the S and P 500.
嗯，我们基本持平。
Well, we we are flat.
我的意思是，我们今天确实经历了一段剧烈波动，对吧？
I mean, we had a pretty wild day though, didn't we?
首先，看看贵金属发生了什么，我觉得那真是相当剧烈。
Mean, first of all, taking a look at the precious metals and what went on there, I think that was pretty wild.
如果我们看一下期权市场所暗示的不确定性，不仅在未来三十天内，而是延伸到年底，再看看VIX期货曲线。
If we take a look at the options market and what they're implying in terms of uncertainty, not just over the next thirty days, but going out to the end of the year, we take a look at the VIX futures curve.
因此，现货VIX上涨了约0.56，这实际上略高于周五市场下跌约29点时通常预期的涨幅。
So spot VIX was up about, point five six, which is actually slightly more than you would normally expect to see it up on a Friday with the market down 29 points or so.
所以，一个简单的经验法则是：标普指数每变动1%，你可能会预期VIX变动1点。
So sort of a simple heuristic, a way to think about it is that, you know, for a 1% move in the S and P, you might expect to see the VIX move one point.
但今天我们看到这种关系并没有成立。
And we can see that relationship didn't really hold today.
VIX实际上上涨了。
VIX actually was up.
实际上，VIX期货曲线整体也更高了。
And actually, the VIX futures curve basically broadly was also was also higher.
人们可能会认为，随着对美联储决策的不确定性降低，这条曲线本应略微变平一些。
And one might think that with less uncertainty with respect to the Fed choice, that some of that curve might have actually flattened out a little bit.
但接着你再看看利率。
But then you take a look at at rates.
这里有趣的是，当我们思考当前利率面临的真实问题时，我们确实存在严重的财政失衡。
And, you know, what's interesting here is that when you think about the real problem that we're facing with rates, we have a real fiscal imbalance.
你需要通过增长来摆脱这种局面。
You need to grow your way out of it.
所以，如果你有一位美联储主席，他专注于这一点，并试图通过略微缩减资产负债表、保持短期利率略低来控制通胀，从而促进经济增长。
So if you have a Fed chairman who is gonna focus on that and is gonna try to control inflation possibly by, you know, pairing off the balance sheet slightly, keeping the short end a little bit lower, basically to sponsor a bit of growth.
只要通胀预期支持这种做法，这似乎确实是一个不错的策略。
You know, that does seem like a good recipe as long as inflation expectations support it.
波诺，你怎么看？
Bono, what's your take?
嗯，我认为在此之前市场一直相当动荡。
Well, listen, I I I think it had been quite volatile volatile leading up to this.
迈克今天谈到了这一点，但我认为我们看到的波动性价格走势，尤其是在贵金属和一些基础金属上，美元贬值的叙事以及美联储独立性或缺乏独立性的问题都已全面显现。
Mike spoke to today, but I think some of the price action of volatility that we've seen, particularly in precious metals and some of the base metals, you know, the whole dollar debasement narrative was in full effect as well as well as fed independence or lack thereof.
因此，我认为这次选举确实缓解了部分这些担忧，而你也看到了这种影响反映在贵金属上的获利回吐，以及美元DXY和相关交易中出现的反转。
So I I do think, worse this election does shore up some of those concerns, and then you saw that reflected, you know, in some of the profit taking that we saw in precious metals as well as you know, some of the reversal that we've seen in dollar DXY and some of the related type of type of trades there.
所以我认为总体而言是积极的。
So I I think it's I think it's net net positive.
未知因素已经被消除了。
The the unknown is kind of taken out.
我要说的是，今天我们看到的VIX飙升，部分原因是我们正处于财报季，而一些权重较大的科技巨头股价出现了剧烈波动。
I will say I do think some of the spike up in VIX that we saw today is attributable to the fact that we are in the middle of earning season, and we have some of the mega caps, which are a large weighting of that, moving, tremendously.
比如昨天的微软。
Microsoft, for example, yesterday.
因此，我认为你正看到一种转变：指数从以往的对冲工具，逐渐演变为更精准的对冲手段。
So I do think you're seeing a a bit of shift away from indexing being used as a hedging tool to indexing now being more, of an accurate hedge.
而且，我们越看到市场由七巨头和核心科技巨头驱动，VIX与之的相关性就会越强，我认为今天就看到了一些这样的表现。
And, you know, the more that we see the market being driven by the mag seven and that core mega cap techs, you will see a better correlation with the VIX there, and I think we saw some of that play out today.
关于金属，蒂姆，我得听听你的看法。
On metal specifically, Tim, I gotta go to you.
你认为还会有多大的下行抛售空间吗？
Did you do you think that there's a lot more downside flush to happen?
嗯，是的。
Well, I yeah.
首先，我认为战争与今天黄金的回调没有任何关系。
First of I don't think wars has anything to do with the gold pullback today.
今年到目前为止，黄金已经上涨了32%。
Mean, had rallied 32% this year.
如果你非要找一个理由，那黄金的涨幅简直高得离谱。
If you wanna have a reason for it, but I mean, gold was was stratospheric.
我并不是在这里炫耀，但上周五我就说过，我觉得黄金，当时我在卖出黄金看涨期权。
I'm I'm I'm not taking victory laps here, but last Friday, I said, I think gold I was selling gold calls.
我说过，我在卖出铜期权。
I said, I was selling copper calls.
我说过，这个地方已经过头了。
I said, this is a place where this has gotten overdone.
我对黄金交易感到无比安心。
I couldn't feel more secure about a gold trade.
对于短期内价格走势的方向，我从未如此不安。
I couldn't have felt more insecure about the price action in terms of where we were going in the short term.
我认为黄金可能还会再回调一点。
I think gold could pull back a little bit more.
我觉得4600可能是黄金的一个不错水平。
Think 4,600 is a probably good level in gold.
这些都不是市场不稳定的迹象。
None of this is a sign that markets are unsteady.
换句话说，贬值交易——现在这是一个流行术语，我认为我们正处在一个环境中，有两三个宏观动态不会一夜之间改变。
You know, in other words and the debasement trade, which is, you know, now a term out there that I I I think is I I think it we're in an environment where there are two or three macro dynamics that aren't gonna change overnight.
我不认为美联储会改变这一点。
I don't think the Fed's gonna change it.
我不认为美元会完全反转走势，但交易往往会过度。
I don't think we're gonna go see a dollar completely reverse course, but trades get overdone.
是的。
Yeah.
而且我认为这就是发生的情况。
And and I think that's what happened.
我的意思是，白银的走势很滑稽，下跌时也同样滑稽，但我们当时就在讨论它。
I mean, the the move in silver, it was was comical and and and and just as comical on the way down, but we were talking about it.
上涨时简直像喜剧。
It was comedy on the way up.
我们说的是，白银和黄金交易被梗文化化了，所以如果你认为是梗文化推动了交易上涨，那就无法在下跌时寻找基本面驱动因素。
We're saying that it was the memeification of the silver and gold trade, so you can't search for fundamental drivers on the downside if you're saying a memeification drove the trade higher.
是的，我认为这更多是交易层面的问题。
Yeah, I think it's more of a trading aspect.
市场确实会寻找理由回归到它们原先的水平。
Markets do look for a reason to actually revert back to where they where they were.
如果你看看它们年初的起点，它们确实经历了惊人的波动。
They did have incredible moves if you look at where they both started the year.
但我会说，从这个触底或逐步下行的过程中，关注你所选金属的供需缺口，并选择缺口最大的那一种。
But I would I would say off of this bottoming or this ratcheting down, look for the supply demand deficits in the metal of your choice and pick the one with the biggest one.
我们收到了一则关于迪士尼的新闻提醒。
We've got a news alert on Disney.
朱莉·博尔森将为您带来更多信息。
Julie Borson's got more on this.
朱莉。
Julia.
没错，梅丽莎。
That's right, Melissa.
据知情人士透露，迪士尼董事会将于下周召开会议，预计将在董事会成员任期结束时投票选出新的首席执行官继任者，而鲍勃·艾格的合同将于今年年底到期。
Disney's board is set to meet next week according to sources close to the situation, and the board is expected to vote on a successor for CEO Bob Iger, when his contract expires, which is set to happen at the end of this year.
我们可能会在下周结束前收到董事会的公告。
Now we may get an announcement from the board as, by the end of next week.
据《华尔街日报》援引的消息来源称，伊格尔计划辞去首席执行官职务，退出日常管理。
Now Iger is reportedly planning to step down as CEO and pull back from daily management according to sources cited in The Wall Street Journal.
因此，焦点转向了两位被视为接替伊格尔担任首席执行官的热门人选。
So now the focus turns to the two executives seen as front runners for Eiger's CEO role to replace him.
乐园部门主管乔什·汤姆森和娱乐业务联席主席达娜·沃尔登。
Parks chief Josh Tomorrow and entertainment co chair Dana Walden.
迪士尼将在周一早上公布季度财报。
Disney does report its quarterly earnings on Monday morning.
我们将密切关注财报结果，看看这些数据如何反映伊格尔的遗产，以及达娜·沃尔登和乔什·汤姆森所负责部门的表现，并据此判断哪位领导者更有能力接替伊格尔。
We're gonna be watching to see what the results say about Iger about Iger's legacy as well as Dana Walden and Josh tomorrow's divisions and seeing how the results may indicate which of these leaders is best positioned to replace Iger.
现在把话题交还给你。
Back over to you.
好的，朱莉娅。
Alright, Julia.
谢谢。
Thank you.
朱莉娅·博尔森。
Julia Borson.
我想知道预测市场怎么说。
I wonder what the predictions market says.
我只是开个玩笑。
I'm just joking.
我不确定。
I don't.
我不知道你对这两位候选人或我们周一将公布的财报有什么看法。
I don't know if you have a comment on either of these two candidates or on the earnings that we're gonna get on Monday morning.
关于候选人，我没什么可说的。
I don't have a lot to say on candidates.
我想说的是，在我们刚刚讨论美联储人事变动的背景下，迪士尼这边也来一次大换血怎么样？
I I will say that, you know, in a world where here we were talking about a shake up at the Fed, how about a shake up at Disney?
你知道，艾格回来接替查佩克后，股价基本没动，但后来稍微反弹了一下。
You know, Eiger comes back in to replace Chapek and the stocks done zero and the stocks, you know, bounce a little bit.
我认为，就我们即将看到的数据而言，我依然对直接面向消费者的业务实力和利润率感到鼓舞。
I think in terms of the numbers that we're gonna see, I continue to be encouraged by the strength of DTC and the margin profile.
总体而言，迪士尼将许多前传统流媒体套餐整合在一起的重新捆绑趋势，实际上增强了其已有的网络影响力。
Overall, the the rebundling dynamic that has Disney pulled into a lot of other kind of former legacy streaming packages is something that actually enhances some of the network power that's already there.
我认为，围绕华纳兄弟出现的那场疯狂抢购潮，也从侧面凸显了迪士尼资产的内在价值。
I think a bit of the feeding frenzy that seems to have gone on around Warner Brothers is something that also I think, plays him well into the intrinsic value of the Disney property.
对我来说，一切关键都在于直接面向消费者业务。
It's all about DTC to me.
乐园业务会有一些周期性波动。
There'll be some cyclicality in parks.
我不指望会有太多表现。
I don't expect a lot.
我肯定这两位候选人都是出色的管理者，迈克，但这可能说明了一些问题。
I'm sure these two candidates are are amazing managers, Mike, but it it may say something.
你是在公园业务和娱乐业务之间做选择，也就是迪士尼的娱乐部分、影视业务部分。
You're choosing between parks and entertainment and the entertainment side of biz of Disney, the business show business side of Disney.
你知道，我的意思是，
You know, I mean,
说到迪士尼，过去我们总是首先把它看作一个单一的资产。
when it came to Disney, it used to be a single property that we always thought of, first and foremost.
但现在我认为公园业务正在发挥作用，因为我觉得它受到的冲击比其他地方要小一些。
And and now I think actually parks is playing into it because I think that's a little bit less influx than than what we're seeing going on elsewhere.
所以我认为这是业务中需要关注的重要部分。
So I think that's an important part of the business to keep an eye on.
我的意思是，仅从本周晚些时候迪士尼+的价格走势以及我们看到的期权活动来看，市场情绪有所上升。
I mean, just based on the price action that we saw late this week in Disney plus some of the options activity that we saw late this week, there was an uptick in sentiment.
我的意思是，仅从今天的价格本身就能看出来。
I mean, we can see that just in the price alone today.
我觉得股价上涨了大约1.3美元，类似这样的幅度。
I think the stock was up, you know, $1.3, something like that.
所以，你展示的价格在我看来稍微低了一些。
So, you're showing a price that looks a little bit lower to me.
我不太确定为什么。
I'm not exactly sure why.
今天我看到股价上涨了一美元又四分之一。
I have I have it up a buck in a buck in a quarter today.
但你知道，我们今天有大量的看涨期权交易，达到四万份，而平时平均只有大约一万九千份。
But, you know, we had a lot of call activity, 40,000 calls versus probably 19,000 on average.
所以市场在财报公布前情绪积极，我认为这是一次预期中的走势。
So they're positive going into the print, and I think this was an expected move.
顺便说一下，凯尔，她确实有一份合同。
By the way, Cal, she does have a a contract.
我的意思是，你可以，你知道的
I mean, you can, you know
什么是
What's what are
明天是86%。
86% for tomorrow.
所以这导致了公园的运行。
So so that I runs parks.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
公园现在占总收入的38%。
Parks is now 38% of the overall revenue.
显然，娱乐业务仍然是主要部分，占55%，而没有人提到Eiger。
I obviously, entertainment's still the bulk of it is 55%, and nobody's Eiger.
所以我认为股票非常看好Eiger的溢价。
So I think the stock really likes the Eiger premium.
在他最近的任期内，股价上涨了20%。
With him in in this last stint, the stock is up 20%.
接下来，人工智能革命将席卷游戏行业。
Coming up, the AI revolution comes for gaming.
随着Gemini首次进军视频游戏领域，Roblox股价暴跌。
Roblox shares plunging as Gemini makes his first foray into the video game space.
这笔交易就此结束了吗？
Is it game over for the trade?
敬请期待下文。
Find out next.
此外，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙今早均公布了财报。
Plus Exxon and Chevron both out with earnings this morning.
这一季度的数据揭示了石油交易的什么趋势？
What the quarter say about the oil trade?
请不要走开。
Don't go anywhere.
《快钱》节目马上回来。
Fast Money's back into.
这里是CNBC的《快钱》节目，主持人梅丽莎·李。
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC.
是什么让你有信心去做一件前所未有的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done
之前没人做过？
before?
我不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中之一
One of
我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以以多种多样的形式呈现。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，要想成就大事，就得有大格局。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的变革者与权力人物节目。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
新节目每周二在您收听播客的平台上线。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回到《快钱游戏股票》节目，今天Unity Software、Roblox和Take Two股价下跌，原因是谷歌向其AI Ultra订阅用户推出了最新工具。
Welcome back to Fast Money Gaming Stocks, Unity Software, Roblox, and Take Two plunging today after Alphabet rolled out its latest tool to Google AI Ultra subscribers.
这个名为Project Genie的模型允许用户仅通过简单提示即可生成互动世界并创建角色。
The model called Project Genie allows users to generate interactive worlds and create characters with just a simple prompt.
这家科技巨头称其为早期研究模型。
The big tech company is calling it an early research model.
我的意思是，这是否就是软件行业目前正在经历的替代性时刻，波农？
I mean, is this sort of the displacement moment that software is suffering right now, Bonoyn?
听好了。
Listen.
我觉得从短期来看，这些举措的方向是对的。
I I I think directionally the moves are right in the short term.
我觉得抛售的幅度，以及像Take Two这样的公司相对走势，都是准确的。
I think the extent to which you had the sell off, and I think the relative moves were accurate for Take Two, for example.
这是一个资金雄厚、预算庞大的项目，拥有自成一体的叙事结构。
This is a deep pocketed large budget operation with a self contained type of narrative.
所以，我并不认为这里会存在什么颠覆。
So I I don't really see that disruption there.
至于Roblox，从其开发者用户群体的规模和覆盖范围来看，我认为它确实有一定的护城河。
And Roblox, in terms of the the the the coder user base and the breadth and scope of of who it reaches, again, think there is somewhat of a moat there.
我认为Unity的跌幅比其他公司更大是合理的，因为它们的价值主张非常相似，而且我看到它们之间的重叠最多。
I think Unity, rightfully so, was off more than the others because I think the the the value proposition is very similar there, and I see the most crossover there.
最终，我认为这些工具将被这三家公司都采用，并全面降低游戏开发的成本。
Ultimately, I think that these tools are gonna be used by all three companies and bring down costs of producing games across the board.
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所以我理解短期的震惊，但我相信从长期来看，这些举动在当下被过度反应了。
So I do understand the shock short term, but I do expect that in the long term, these moves are end up being overdone in the immediacy.
迈克，你怎么看？
Mike, what's your take?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这和邦霍恩所说的有点类似。
I mean, kinda to what Bonhoehn was saying.
我的意思是，鉴于今天看到的走势，期权市场出现了剧烈的短期反应。
I mean, unsurprisingly, given the move we saw today, there was a a big knee jerk reaction going on in the options market.
交易量超过了其日均成交量的六倍。
It traded more than six times its average daily volume.
但有趣的是，如果你剔除与今天和下周到期相关的交易量——当我看到巨大波动时，我通常会这么做——我会说，好吧，先排除当前和下周即将到期的期权所引发的波动，因为这本质上是一种短期对冲行为，人们只是在对接下来几天的走势进行对冲。
But what's interesting is that if you exclude the volume that was associated with expiration today and next week, and I will often do this when I see a big gap, I'll say, okay, let's throw out what's going on for the options that are expiring right now and next week because that's basically a knee jerk reaction where people are trying to hedge just the moves over the next couple of days.
把时间范围拉得再长一点。
Push it out a little bit further.
如果你看远一点，超过2月13日那个星期五，你会发现最活跃的三个合约全是看涨期权买入。
And if you do, you go beyond the February 13, Friday there, you're actually seeing that the top three most active contracts were all upside call buying.
所以我认为，这里有一种观点认为，这可能还需要几天时间才能逐渐明朗，也许它会找到自己的定位。
So I I think that there's some, view here that that maybe this is just gonna take a few more days to play out and that maybe it'll find its footing.
我今天看到了这个新闻，也看到了这些股票的走势，真的为吉姆和蒂姆感到难过。
And I saw I saw the story today and I saw the move in these stocks and I felt really bad for guys junk, Tim.
是的。
Yeah.
这其实是一种常见的看法。
It's often it's a common view.
你并不是唯一一个这么想的人。
You're the only one.
吉姆那边确实有很多人感到担忧。
You're not the only one and it's there's there's a lot of concern for guys junk out there.
话虽如此，我认为AI对软件的影响所带来的游戏机制，还是得回到Roblox这个话题上。
Having said that, I I I do think the the the gaming dynamic of of AI's impact on software, bring it back to Roblox.
Roblox 完全经历了一次大幅波动，过去三个月下跌了40%，甚至更多。
Roblox is completely round tripped a massive move and is down, you know, 40% in three months, even more so.
看起来它已经回落到一个人们真正开始评估参与度因素，以及大趋势究竟如何的水平。
And it looks like it's really all the way back to a level which people are truly assessing not only the engagement factor, but also just what is going on with the big trends.
我实际上觉得 Roblox 在这里很有意思。
I I actually think Roblox is interesting here.
我联系了我的两个内部渠道，就是我家里的两个主要用户，他们似乎并不担心。
And I reached out to my two channel checks, which are the the people in my house that are major And they don't seem to be concerned.
我也认为，这种年龄验证带来的障碍确实对参与度造成了负面影响。
I I do think also this age verification dynamic of roadblocks is something that's actually not helping in terms of engagement.
还有更多快钱即将涌入。
There's a lot more fast money to come.
接下来会发生什么。
Here's what's coming up next.
下周财报季的重点将是更多科技巨头，包括 Alphabet 和亚马逊。
More big tech on deck alphabet and Amazon highlight next week's earnings action.
本周的报告改变了投资者的布局吗？
Do this week's reports change the setup for investors?
我们现在能更好地感受到，正在纳斯达克市场位于时代广场的现场直播中观察快钱动态。
We 're able better sense be we're get sense to watching Fast a Money live from the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square.
我们稍后回来。
We're back right after this.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中之一
One of
我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以以多种多样的形式呈现。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，
Life is
你必须胸怀大志，才能成就大事。
short and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC的变革者与权力人物节目。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
新节目每周二在您收听播客的平台上线。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回到《快钱》，股市在创下盈利月后以下跌收盘。
Welcome back to fast money stocks closing out a winning month on a down note.
道琼斯指数下跌了179点。
The, Dow losing a 179 points.
是的。
Yes.
它几乎下跌了百分之零点五。
It'd be falling almost half a percent.
纳斯达克下跌了约1%，但三大指数在1月份均上涨了约1%。
The Nasdaq dropping about 1%, but all three were up about 1% for the month of January.
与此同时，小型股的罗素2000指数飙升了5%以上。
The small cap Russell two thousand meantime jumping more than 5%.
雪佛龙和埃克森美孚在今早公布财报后均实现了上涨。
Chevron and ExxonMobil both managing gains after earnings this morning.
这两家能源巨头的盈利超过了预期。
The energy giants beating earnings estimates.
雪佛龙迎来了自7月以来表现最好的一天，而特斯拉则因报道称该公司可能与SpaceX合并而上涨了高达5.6%，SpaceX在私募市场的估值约为8000亿美元。
Chevron seeing its best day since July, and Tesla rising as much as 5.6% on a report that the company could merge with SpaceX, which is valued around $800,000,000,000 in the private market.
迈克·科，如果特斯拉真的与SpaceX合并，你会更看好特斯拉吗？
Mike Coe, would you be more of a fan of Tesla if it did merge with SpaceX?
嗯，我的意思是，如果你看看特斯拉及其估值，你必须假设，所有这些都可以说是空中楼阁。
Well, I mean, if you take a look at Tesla, I mean, and its valuation, you have to assume that, you know, all of it is sort of I'm not gonna call a pie in the sky.
这样说其实不太公平。
That's not really fair.
我的意思是，但
What I mean but
我认为我们可以说，埃隆在机器人、人工智能、全自动驾驶以及太空探索方面都是个未来主义者，这些都是一些共同的主题。
I think what we can say is that Elon, the futurist in the robotics side and the AI side and the FSD side and also for SpaceX, these, you know, are sort of common themes.
他还有关于在太空中建立数据中心的想法。
He has these ideas about data centers in space.
很容易理解他是如何把这一切串联成一个故事的。
It's easy to see how he could sort of spin a story that sort of draws all these things together.
特斯拉的估值其实并没有真正与任何具体事物挂钩，而只是与这种未来科技的故事相关。
An evaluation of Tesla, it doesn't really tie to to anything but that kind of, you know, basically the future of technology story.
因此，这种讨论出现并不让我感到意外，因为过去埃隆就曾谈过他旗下公司之间的交集，所以这其实没什么好惊讶的。
So it doesn't surprise me much that this conversation has taken place because there have been experiences in the past where Elon has talked about the intersection between his companies, and so it doesn't really surprise me that much.
不得不说。
Have to say.
我确实因为这个买了，因为我喜欢买这些头条新闻。
I I did buy it off this because I I I like buying these headlines.
我以前就参与过这个故事。
I've been involved in this story before.
我已经很久没有参与其中了。
I haven't been involved with it in a long time.
我看到这个头条写着‘人形机器人’，正如迈克所提到的。
I saw the headline run humanoid to Mike's point.
人形机器人、全自动驾驶、天空中的数据中心、SpaceX的估值。
Humanoid robots, full self drive data centers in the sky, SpaceX valuation.
所以我认为有诸多理由可以买入这只股票。
So I think there's a host of reasons to reach for the stock.
但我不认为你一定非得这么做。
I don't think you necessarily have to do that.
这确实有回调的倾向，但我现在还是持有多头。
This does have a knack of retracing, but I am long at now.
我只是想参与这个故事。
Just wanna be a part of that story.
我不知道你是想选特斯拉还是能源股。
I don't know if you wanna go Tesla or the energy stocks.
我选能源股。
Let me go energy.
听起来天上掉下来的馅饼够多了。
Sounds like there's enough pie in the sky out there.
我觉得能源股的走势是可持续的。
I I think the move in energy stocks is sustainable.
如果你看看埃克森，我们刚公布了财报。
And if you look at Exxon, we just had earnings.
所以这不仅仅关乎委内瑞拉和可能的情况。
So this isn't just about Venezuela and what might be.
这关乎圭亚那以及当前的情况。
This is about Guyana and what is.
这是一家完全一体化的公司，从未如此高效，也没有把大量资金投入资本支出。
This is about a fully integrated company that's never been more efficient and isn't throwing a lot of money into CapEx.
今年年初以来，股价已经上涨了20%，而我们昨天谈到的布伦特油价终于触及70美元，尽管存在供应动态。
It's been a 20% move since the beginning of the year with a move in Brent that we talked about yesterday finally struck $70 even if there are supply dynamics.
所以我认为一体化公司的前景非常不错。
So I think the integrated look great.
我认为斯伦贝谢的表现也很出色。
I think slumberger looked great.
在这种环境下，海上一体化公司的表现甚至更好。
Offshore integrated look even better in this environment.
我们收到了一条关于NFL的新闻提醒。
We've got a news alert on the NFL.
ESPN报道，西雅图海鹰队将在超级碗后出售。
ESPN reporting the Seattle Seahawks will go up for sale after the Super Bowl.
自2015年以来首次参加冠军赛的球队，自保罗·艾伦2018年去世后一直由他的遗产继承团队持有。
The team playing in the championship game for the first time since 2015 have been owned by Paul Allen's estate since his death in 2018.
接下来，马克七的收益季继续推进，谷歌和亚马逊将于下周公布财报，一位资深科技观察人士表示，有一个特定的人工智能瓶颈可能拖慢这些公司的表现。
Coming up, Max seven earnings season rolls on with alphabet and Amazon set to report next week and a longtime tech watcher saying there's one specific AI bottleneck that could hold these names back.
他将在稍后加入《快钱》节目。
He will join the fast set right after this.
错过了《快钱》的某个时刻吗？
Missed a moment of fast?
随时随地都可以收听我们。
Catch us anytime on the go.
关注《快钱》播客。
Follow the fast money podcast.
稍后马上回来。
We're back right after this.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to fast money.
苹果、微软和Meta本周公布财报时均超出预期，但投资者仍对巨额AI支出的回报存有疑问。
Apple, Microsoft and Meta all beating earnings expectations when they reported this week, but investors still have questions about the payoff of massive AI spending.
微软报告了大幅增长的资本支出，同时其备受关注的Azure云业务增长放缓。
Microsoft reporting soaring CapEx alongside slower growth in its closely watched Azure cloud unit.
下周，我们将迎来更多财报，周三将是谷歌母公司Alphabet，周四则是亚马逊。
Next week, we'll get more reports headlined by Alphabet on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday.
关于大型科技公司财报所传递的信号，里克·谢兰德现在加入我们。
For what big tech results are signaling, Rick Sherland joins us here on set.
他是谢兰德合伙公司的创始人，同时也是Wedbush投资银行的高级顾问。
He's founder of Sherland Partners and senior adviser to Wedbush Investment Banking.
里克，很高兴你再次来到我们这里。
Rick, always good to have you with us.
谢谢。
Thank you.
首先，我想听听你对这周的看法，因为这周非常有趣，尤其是软件类股票，似乎陷入了恶性循环，无论哪家公司的财报表现如何，是否超出或低于预期，股价都遭到抛售。
First, wanna get your take on on the week that was because it's a very interesting week in terms of, in particular, the software names and the death spiral that software seems to be in and how every report that came out, no matter how the company did in relationship to numbers and estimates, got sold off.
你怎么看
What's your take
这个？
on that?
马克上周情绪非常糟糕。
Mark was in a very foul mood this past week.
确实。
Very.
是的。
Yeah.
微软的业绩其实并没有大幅不及预期。
Microsoft really didn't miss significantly.
还有ServiceNow和其他几家公司。
And, you know, you had ServiceNow and a few others.
甚至那些没有发布财报的股票也遭受了重创。
Even stocks that didn't report got hit hard.
所以我认为，人们一直有一种观点，认为既然能通过对话生成代码，软件就变得可替代了。
So I think there's been this view that because you can vibe code that software is replaceable now.
但这是一种极大的简化，因为在企业领域，编码只是软件的一小部分。
And that's very much an oversimplification because for the enterprise space, coding is a small part of software.
真正关键的是构建工作流程、理解业务领域，以及拥有这些专业知识，这占了80%的内容。
It's building the workflows and understanding the domain and having that expertise that's 80% of what it's all about.
所以我认为，在这种市场环境下，你必须证明自己清白，否则就被视为有罪。
So I think you're guilty until proven innocent, I think, in this kind of market.
如果你有选择，你会倾向于购买原生AI产品，因为你能获得50%、100%的增长。
If you have a choice, you'd buy AI native because you get 50%, 100% growth.
目前，公开市场上真正属于原生AI的软件公司并不多。
There just aren't a lot of public software companies that are AI native right now.
所以我认为，SaaS领域在一段时间内压力很大，市场将进入‘证明给我看’的阶段。
So I think the SaaS universe is, you know, kind of under the gun for a little while and it's gonna be a show me.
不幸的是，对这个市场而言，有大量公司原本以为今年能通过IPO退出。
Unfortunately, for that market, there are an awful lot of companies that were thinking they could get out this year in an IPO.
许多风投机构持有大量在2021年未能上市的公司名称
A lot of VCs have a lot of these names that didn't get out in 'twenty one
是的
Mhmm.
上一次窗口打开时，许多私募股权机构已经很久没有退出项目了。
Last time the window was open, and a lot of private equity hasn't really had an exit in quite a long time.
所以我认为，对他们来说，当前的环境一定非常令人沮丧。
So I think there's got to be a very frustrating environment for them.
但就目前而言，我认为SaaS公司只会是那种‘拿证据来’的股票。
But for now, I think SaaS is just gonna be, you know, kind of show me show me stocks.
是的
Mhmm.
所以，里克，我们来谈谈吧。我认为你有一个核心观点，即云服务仍然存在容量限制，而所有关于需求的担忧都是无稽之谈，
So, Rick, let's talk I I think you have a a core thesis here that the, you know, the cloud is still capacity constrained and that ultimately, all this consternation about demand is is hogwash,
如果可以的话。
if I may.
谈谈这一点，因为同样地，市场并没有给予像微软这样在基础设施上大量投资的公司或其他参与者应有的待遇。
Talk about that because, again, markets haven't treated a Microsoft who's investing heavily in infrastructure or the other players.
整个资本支出的问题，你得回溯到这些公司，它们曾经是自由现金流的机器，而现在我们开始思考其中的一些动态变化。
This whole, you know, capex spend and you you go all the way back with companies, these companies and the whole dynamic of where they were free cash flow machines and are now companies we're we're thinking about some of those dynamics.
说说看。
Talk about it.
是的。
Yeah.
很好。
Great.
让我跟你分享一个观点。
So, let me share a perspective with you.
目前市场上有1900个LLM模型，长尾效应明显，各种模型和变体层出不穷。
You've got 1,900 LLM models out there, a very long tail of models and variants.
但只有五家公司将成为这个市场的寡头领导者，都是我们耳熟能详的名字。
You've got five companies that will be oligopoly leaders in that market, names we all know.
领导地位一直在变化。
The leadership keeps changing.
每隔几个月就会有新的基准测试出炉，现在是Gemini，接下来是ChatGPT，然后是LAMA或者其他公司，比如XAI。
Like every couple months you've got benchmarks out and now it's Gemini and next it's ChatGPT and then it's LAMA or somebody else, XAI.
关键在于，你要通过一套强大的软件栈来在市场中脱颖而出，鼓励开发者针对你的平台进行开发，融入你的生态系统，这正是微软围绕Windows平台所做的事情。
What's important is that you differentiate in the market by having a robust stack of software that encourages people to write to your platform and write and be a part of your ecosystem, which is exactly what Microsoft did around the Windows platform.
每个人都为Windows开发应用。
Everyone wrote for Windows.
这正是甲骨文围绕Oracle数据库所做的事情。
It's what Oracle did around the Oracle database.
你必须向上游延伸到应用层，提供全套工具，让市场标准最终围绕你的平台确立。
You have to go up the stack into the applications layer and provide all the tooling so that the market standardizes on your platform.
这样一来，谁是最新的领先者其实并不重要，因为它们在基准测试中的表现都相差无几。
And then it doesn't really matter like well who's the latest leader, you know, because they're all so close in the benchmarks.
所以他们在构建生态系统。
So they're building an ecosystem.
真正有趣的是，企业市场现在才刚开始接触大语言模型。
What's really interesting is that the enterprise market is just starting to engage with the LLM models now.
企业市场是愿意付费的。
The enterprise market pays.
消费者并不怎么愿意付费。
The consumer doesn't really pay.
只有5%的消费者愿意为他们使用的产品付费。
5% of consumers will pay for what they use.
所以你在进行推理，但却没有因此获得报酬。
So you're doing inference, but you're not getting paid for it.
但在企业市场，他们愿意付费，而且是推理服务的大用户。
But with the enterprise market, they pay and they are big users of inference.
所以我认为需求才刚刚开始。
So I think demand is just getting started.
而推动这一需求的将是AgenTex。
And what will drive that demand is AgenTex.
因此，你正在与你的企业系统集成，你的代理现在在后台相互交互，执行以前从未做过的事情，但你也在进行推理，而大型语言模型并不擅长推理。
So you're integrating with your enterprise systems, your agents are now interacting with each other in the background doing things they didn't do before, but you're also doing reasoning and LLMs are not very good at reasoning.
事实上，它们在这方面表现得很差。
In fact, they're terrible at it.
因此，它们会进行很长的思维链，思维链越长，就越容易产生幻觉，忘记原有的约束条件。
So they do these long chain of thoughts, and the longer the chain of thought, the more they kind of hallucinate and forget what the constraints are.
但这会消耗大量的推理计算资源。
But it burns up an awful lot of inference cycles.
因此，我认为从需求角度来看，我们才刚刚开始真正启动需求。
So I would argue that in terms of demand, we are really just getting started with demand.
我们不必担心会耗尽所有能筹资和建设的算力资源。
There shouldn't be any concerns that we're gonna burn up all the capacity that we can fund and build.
算力的瓶颈更多在于建设更多数据中心的能力，而不是需求端。
Capacity are more of the constraints of building more data centers, not the demand side.
那么在构建这个生态系统、让所有人都基于你的大型语言模型进行开发方面，我们现在进展到哪一步了？
So in terms of building that ecosystem and getting everybody to build on on your LLM, where are we on that?
所以看到这些真的很有趣。
So it's fascinating to see.
我今天看到一件事，OpenAI提到他们应用商店里已经有60个应用了。
I saw something today, OpenAI talked about, they've got 60 apps in their app store.
他们聘请了一位知名人士来负责他们的应用业务。
They've hired somebody to run, a high profile person to run their apps business.
因此，Anthropic更专注于企业市场，而不是消费端。
So Anthropic has been more focused on the enterprise market, not so much on the consumer side.
他们已经拥有80%的企业驱动型业务，这些企业通过调用LLM的API来开展工作。
So they already have 80% enterprise driven business, and so those businesses write to the APIs that call that LLM.
所以他们已经在企业领域有了自己的业务。
And so they already have a business in the enterprise.
在达沃斯，OpenAI的萨拉·弗莱尔（我记不清名字了）说，目前我们企业业务占比约为40%，到年底将达到50%。
And Davos, the guys at OpenAI, Sarah Fryer I think it was, said that we're about 40% enterprise right now by the end of the year will be 50.
因此你可以看到，他们意识到钱就在那里，于是正努力构建我们刚才描述的完整技术栈，所有人都意识到必须打造一个完整的体系。
And so you can see them recognizing that's where the money is, and so they're trying to build the stack that we described now, and so it's just they all recognize they need to do a whole complete stack.
好的。
Okay.
所以你提到今年理论上将有两家公司上市。
So you mentioned two companies that are gonna be going public in theory this year.
我们在《快钱》节目中玩一个叫‘你选哪个’的游戏。
We play this game on on Fast Money called would you rather.
我知道你现在已经不是分析师了。
So I mean and I know that you're not an analyst.
你不用再戴那顶帽子了。
You don't have to wear that hat anymore.
但从商业角度来看，OpenAI 和 Anthropic，你提到 Anthropic 目前更专注于企业市场，而 OpenAI 正在努力向这个方向迈进。
But in terms of the business, OpenAI versus Anthropic, and you mentioned that Anthropic is definitely more focused on enterprise at this time, although OpenAI is trying to move in that direction.
那你更倾向于哪一个？
So which one would you rather?
哪一个前景更好？
Which one has the better prospect?
嗯，你还有XAI，如果我们看媒体报道，说他
Well, you'll have XAI also, which if we read the press, it says that He's
只是更倾向于，顺便说一下。
just gonna rather rather, by the way.
对不起。
I'm sorry.
我知道。
I know.
他引入了第三个选项，不过没关系。
He brought in a third option, but that's fine.
可以这么做。
Can do that.
它们并不是三个。
They're not as three.
就像，XAI会成为SpaceX的一部分吗？你知道的，六月份埃隆说这是我的生日，也许那时候我们会上市，行星正好对齐之类的。
It's like, will XAI be part of SpaceX, which, you know, in June, Elon says it's my birthday, maybe we'll go public then, the planets are aligned or whatever.
所以，是的，你会有更多选择。
So, yeah, you're going have more choices.
我认为这更像是一个功能问题，目前还无法给出明确答案，因为这将像一场来回拉锯的篮球赛，领先的一方始终掌握主动权。现在关键不在于我们的基准测试结果能稍微好一点。
And I would say it's a function and you can't really answer the question yet, because it's going to be like a back and forth basketball game where the lead So, keeps the race right now is not so much let's deliver a little better results in our benchmark.
而是要构建一个完整的堆栈，证明我们能吸引开发者使用我们的平台，从而为业务带来持久性和更高的利润率。
It's like let's build a complete stack and prove that we can attract developers to our platform, which gives you durability and higher margins in the business.
因此，我认为这些玩家的市场前景非常好，他们将反过来与今天托管他们产品的公司展开竞争。
So I think the market outlook for these players is very good, and they will turn around and compete against the very companies that are hosting their products today.
他们会与微软竞争。
They'll compete with Microsoft.
他们会与谷歌及其他公司在堆栈业务上竞争，因为即使那些在平台上开发应用的公司，这些企业也会反过来与其中许多应用公司竞争——因为他们会说：‘我们自己也应该拥有其中一部分’，这在行业内早已司空见惯。
They'll compete with Google and others in the stack business because they'll have, even the companies that write their applications on the platform, these guys will turn around and compete against a number of those applications companies because they say, well, we should have some of that ourselves, and we're used to that in the industry.
我们已经从甲骨文、微软等公司身上看到过这种情况。
We've seen it from Oracle and Microsoft and others.
我认为在解决泡沫问题上，需求方面并不存在泡沫。
I think that addressing the issue of bubbles, there is no bubble in demand.
这才刚刚开始。
It's just getting started.
所以你建好数据中心，他们自然会来。
So you build the data center and they will come.
因此，我不认为需求方面会存在泡沫，你知道融资成本很高。
So I don't see there being a concern about a bubble of demand, and you know the financing costs are big.
是的。
Yeah.
所以人们担心，未来我们是否会有足够的需求？
And so there's concern that will we have the demand down the road?
绝对会，因为在我看来，这个市场在企业领域正迎来转折点，才刚刚起步，未来对推理需求将非常巨大。
Absolutely, because as I see this market inflecting on the enterprise space, it's really just getting started, and there's gonna be so much demand for inference going forward.
我不认为这是个问题。
I don't think it's an issue.
里克，很高兴见到你。
Rick, great to see you.
希望你能再回来。
Hope you'll come back.
谢谢。
Thank you.
你也是。
You.
合作伙伴们。
Partners.
接下来，比特币跌破关键支撑。
Coming up, Bitcoin breaks down.
今年加密货币开局不佳，跌至自去年十一月以来的最低水平。
The cryptocurrency off to a rough start this year and hitting its lowest level since November.
在这之后，比特币接下来会怎样？
What is next for Bitcoin right after this?
欢迎回到《快钱加密货币》市场深度分析。
Welcome back to fast money crypto getting crunched.
比特币今天早些时候跌破82,000美元，触及自去年11月下旬以来的最低水平。
Bitcoin dipping below 82,000 earlier today, hitting its lowest level since late November.
它随后部分收复失地，目前交易价格略低于84,000美元。
It did recoup some losses and is now trading, just under 84,000.
比特币基金MicroStrategy股价一度跌至一年以上新低，但今天反弹，涨幅超过4%。
Bitcoin treasury micro strategy briefly hitting a more than one year low, but also bounced back for more than 4% gain today.
波诺，你认为这里发生了什么？
Bono, what do you think is going on here?
我认为这在某种程度上象征着整体市场的避险情绪。
Well, I think this is, you know, somewhat symbolic of of risk off sentiment across the board.
就比特币与MicroStrategy的关系而言，我认为比特币持仓的价值远超该公司实际业务的价值。
As it pertains to Bitcoin versus MicroStrategy, I think it's one where, you know, the the Bitcoin holdings have more than mass the the true operations of the business.
我过去曾认为这是一种几乎免费持有公司运营资产的方式，但考虑到可转换债务——尽管我认为对公司而言条款相当有利——但以当前价格发行所带来的稀释风险其实很低，据我所知，这还是零息债券。
I used to look at this as a way to kind of essentially own the operating business for free, but given, you know, the convertible debt, although although I do think it's on quite favorable terms for the company, you know, the dilute dilution risk given where it struck is quite low, and to my knowledge, I believe there's zero coupon.
因此，从短期来看，这实际上并不会造成现金负担。
So essentially, it's not really a cash drag in the immediacy.
这其实取决于你认为比特币会继续下跌，还是会开始企稳并向上反弹。
It's really a matter of whether you think that Bitcoin continues to drift lower or starts to kind of base an edge higher.
如果是后者，我肯定会更倾向于持有MicroStrategy，因为你相当于获得了杠杆效应。
In the latter, I would most certainly prefer to own MicroStrategy just because you kind of get the levered kicker.
你知道，我认为我们目前看到的代币化趋势，对整个山寨币和比特币的叙事是有支持作用的。
You know, I I do think that what we're seeing in terms of tokenization is supportive of the overall Altcoin and Bitcoin narrative.
你知道，当你仔细看的话，我同意Bono所说的话。
You know, when you look at it, I agree with what Bono Bono had said.
MicroStrategy是一把双刃剑。
Micro strategies cuts both ways.
无论市场下跌还是上涨，你都能获得杠杆效应。
You get that leverage on the way down, the way up.
所以，如果你希望在反弹时加大一点力度，我确实同意这一点。
So I do agree with that if you wanna torque it a little bit on the way back up.
有诸多原因可能导致它被抛售。
A host of reasons why it could have been sold off.
地缘政治。
Geopolitical.
黄金是新的比特币。
Gold is the new Bitcoin.
利率下跌有很多原因，它们被抛售的原因也很多，但我正在等待看到稳定，而我至今尚未看到。
There's a lot of reasons why rates there's a lot of reasons why they could have sold off, but I I'm waiting to see that stabilization, and I have not seen it yet.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，认识新老板。
Coming up, meet the new boss.
塔吉特和沃尔玛的高管层都已发生重大变动。
Big c suite changes have taken effect at both Target and Walmart.
实际上，这将在本周末发生。
That'll happen actually this weekend.
insiders表示，随着股价表现大相径庭，大量短期资金正在涌入。
What the insiders are saying as the stocks see vastly different price performance, more fast money into.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to fast money.
零售巨头塔吉特和沃尔玛在过去一年中走向了截然不同的方向，但两家公司都将在周日迎来新任首席执行官。
Retail giant Target and Walmart have moved in opposite directions over the past year, but both will see new CEOs take the reins on Sunday.
新任领导者将为每家公司带来什么？
What will the new leaders bring to each company?
CBC的考特尼·拉根带来了更多相关报道。
CBC's Courtney Ragan's got more on this.
嘿，考特尼。
Hey, Court.
你好，梅丽莎。
Hi, Melissa.
迈克尔·菲德尔克和约翰·富纳都是各自公司塔吉特和沃尔玛的几十年老员工，但面临的处境不同。
So both Michael Fidelke and John Furner are multi decade employees at their respective retailers Target and Walmart, but facing different circumstances.
截至2026年，两只股票都上涨了大约6%到7%，但正如你所指出的，在过去十二个月里，它们的走势却完全相反。
Both stocks are up a similar six to 7% so far in 2026, but as you pointed out over the last twelve months, the movement was in very opposite directions.
消息人士告诉我，约翰·富纳被视为像他的前任道格·麦克米伦那样的服务型领导者，但属于新一代。
Sources tell me John Furner is viewed as a servant leader like his predecessor Doug McMillan, but the next vintage.
他富有洞察力，并愿意拥抱变革。
He's insightful and willing to embrace change.
富纳曾在多个领域、地区和业态中工作过。
Furner's worked across disciplines, geographies, and formats.
他深度参与了近期的技术投资，并且在沃尔玛之外的零售业人脉广泛，从夫妻店到政界人士都有联系，这得益于他担任美国国家零售联合会主席的三年经历。
He's been integral to recent technology investments and connected he's connected in retail beyond Walmart, from mom and pop retailers to lawmakers Thanks to his three years as NRF chairman.
现在，塔吉特的迈克尔·菲德尔克并未像富纳那样深度参与更广泛的零售业社群，但他也有类似朴实的领导风格。
Now Michael Fidelke at Target hasn't been as involved in the broader retail community, but has a similar down to earth leadership style.
他来自爱荷华州，出生在一个农场。
He's from Iowa, born on a farm.
我听说他为人直率。
I'm told he's a straight shooter.
他会在员工食堂吃饭。
He eats in the employee cafeteria.
他在做决定之前会先了解一线情况。
He seeks the word on the ground before he makes decisions.
菲德尔克的首要任务是重回增长轨道，特别注重以实惠的价格重新赢得塔吉特风格的吸引力。
And Fidelke's top priority is returning to growth with particular focus on recapturing that Tarjay style cachet, but at affordable prices.
他已经开始顺利推进这一策略，而且消息人士表示，他曾领导的加速办公室证明了他在必要时愿意挑战现状。
He's already been given a running start to start deploying this playbook, and sources do say the acceleration office that he ran has proven that he's willing to challenge the status quo when it's necessary.
梅丽莎？
Melissa?
科特，谢谢。
Court, thanks.
科特尼·里根。
Courtney Reagan.
迈克·科，你更喜欢哪一个？
Mike Coe, which one do you like?
在沃尔玛，现状就很好。
The status quo is just fine at Walmart.
所以我认为基本上就是继续做你们正在做的事，因为他们做得非常好。
So I think that's just basically keep doing what you're doing because they're doing it very, very well.
目标公司显然是他们还有很多工作要做之处。
Target obviously is the place where they have a lot to work on.
如果他不介意打破现状，我觉得这是好事。
And if he's not up you know, if he's not concerned about upsetting the apple part, I think that's a good thing.
期权市场也反映了这一点。
Options market reflects that too.
我们看到看涨期权的交易量是看跌期权的两倍左右，而且成交量高于平均水平，情绪看涨。
We saw calls outpacing puts by about two to one on on above average bullish volume there.
我认为大多数人知道目标公司就是T和Timbo。
Well, I think most people are aware that Target is the t and Timbo.
那他们难道不能不是吗？
So Could they not be?
我的意思是，我
I mean, I
我显然。
I Obviously.
我想除此之外
I think what else
那里本该说些什么。
would have been really said there.
我认为我们在细分市场动态和相对价值方面已经看到一些变化。
I think we have seen a little bit of change in terms of the segment dynamics and relative value.
接下来，最后的交易。
Up next, final trades.
最后交易时间，迈克·科。
Final trade time, Mike Coe.
我喜欢字母表，也喜欢期权。
I like alphabet, and I like options.
下周财报前的谷歌期权。
Google options going into the print next week.
5%的隐含波动幅度。
5% implied move.
接下来。
Following.
我会采用凯伦的三天谨慎原则，但我认为现在入手能让你有长期持有的机会。
I would use Karen's three day rule of caution, but I think take two is gonna give you an opportunity to own it for the long term.
蒂姆·博。
Tim Bo.
是的，辉瑞。
Yeah, Pfizer.
蒂姆的辉瑞报告下周发布。
Tim's Pfizer reports next week.
我认为他们在肿瘤业务等方面有一些积极因素。
I think there's some plus in their oncology business amongst other things.
史蒂夫
Steve
我选择T股票。
I'm going to go with a T stock.
会是特斯拉，不是T和Tim的Tebow。
It's going to be Tesla and it's not the T and Tims Tebow.
Timbo，Timbo。
Timbo Timbo.
我说的是Tebow。
What I say Tebow.
是的，没问题。
Yeah it's Okay.
总之，人们都会适应的。
Anyway people get used.
感谢观看Fast。
Thanks for watching Fast.
周末愉快。
Have a great weekend.
马特·金钱，吉姆·克莱默现在就开始了。
Matt Money, Jim Kramer starts right now.
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是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事情？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以以多种多样的形式呈现。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，
Life is short and
要想成就大事，就得有大格局。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持 CNBC 的《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
每周二更新新一期节目，可在您收听播客的任何平台收听。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
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