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NFL开赛时间到了。
It's NFL kickoff time.
与体育商业专家迈克尔·奥泽尼亚一起独家解读NFL球队估值。
Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert Michael Ozenia.
NFL是目前最赚钱的联赛。
The NFL is by far the most profitable league.
NFL球队估值现在可以在cnbc.com/sport上查看。
NFL team valuations now on cnbc.com/sport.
从纽约时代广场中心的纳斯达克市场现场直播。
Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square.
这里是《快钱》节目。
This is Fast Money.
今晚的节目内容如下。
Here's what's on tap tonight.
尽管财政部采取了前所未有的措施来压低长期收益率，利率仍在上升。
Rates on the rise even as the Treasury takes unprecedented steps to keep long term yields lower.
为什么市场看起来仍然不安？本周的通胀报告对未来走势可能意味着什么？
Why markets still seem spooked in what this week's inflation reports could mean for future moves?
苹果也被卷了进来。
And Apple gets brought into the fold.
这家科技巨头发布了最新的2000美元设备，而一位顶级分析师认为粉丝们会排队抢购。
The tech giant unveiling its latest $2,000 device, while one top analyst thinks fans are gonna be lining up to get this one.
另外，原油价格触及三个月高点。
Plus, crude oil hits three month highs.
Chewy股价因财报表现不佳而下跌，我们也在倒计时等待甲骨文的财报。
Chewy shares in the doghouse after earnings, and we countdown to Oracle earnings.
明晚这家科技巨头会带来什么惊喜？
What to expect from a tech giant tomorrow night?
我是梅丽莎·李，在纳斯达克市场现场的B演播室为你直播。
I'm Melissa Lee live from coming to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq Market site.
今晚在座的有史蒂夫·布拉索、卡特·布拉克斯顿·沃思、内森·范和盖伊·多姆尼。
On the desk tonight, Steve Brasso, Carter Braxton Worth, Van Nathan, and Guy Domhni.
我们先从那个强劲的国债涨势说起，它把十年期国债收益率推到了2023年11月以来的最高水平。
We start off with that great rate rally that sent ten year Treasury yield to their highest level since November 2023.
今天基准收益率最高触及4.85%。
The benchmark topping 4.85% at its peak today.
三十年期一度突破5.3%，而两年期收益率也创下了两年多来的新高。
While the thirty year briefly crossed 5.3%, the two year hit its highest in, more than, well, two years.
尽管财政部长斯科特·贝森表示，财政部明天将回购高达60亿美元的十年期和二十年期国债，这一策略旨在帮助降低利率，但市场仍然出现了这样的走势。
The move comes despite treasury secretary Scott Besson saying the department will buy back up to $6,000,000,000 worth of ten and twenty year notes tomorrow, a strategy designed to help bring down rates.
这个回购规模是正常水平的三倍。
That's three times the normal amount.
一次强劲的十年期国债拍卖也稍微缓解了压力，而且这不仅仅发生在美国国内。
A strong ten year auction also did a little to take the pressure off, and it wasn't just here at home.
法国、德国和日本的国债收益率今天也都有所上升。
Yields in France, Germany, and in Japan also higher today.
所有这些都发生在本周两份关键通胀报告出炉之前——明天早上将公布8月生产者价格指数，周五公布消费者价格指数，当然还有下周的美联储会议，目前市场认为加息概率为60%。
All this ahead of two key inflation reports coming this week, August producer prices out tomorrow morning, CPI on Friday, and, of course, next week's Fed meeting where markets currently see a 60% chance of a rate hike.
那么今天市场的表现说明了什么，盖伊？
So what does today's action tell you, Guy?
这告诉我，听着，在我们的圈子里，显然我们都有自尊心。
Tells me, listen, in our world, we all have egos clearly.
我的意思是，如果你看这个节目，你知道我们都有一定程度的自尊心，拥有自尊心很重要，但保持谦逊也同样重要，因为市场可能会做出你几乎从未预料到的事情，我觉得我们现在就处于这种边缘状态。
I mean, if you watch this show, you know we all have some level of egos, and it's important that you have one, but it's also important to have a level of humility as well, because the market can do things that you rarely, if ever, expect, and I think we're borderline now.
我认为财政部长贝森在他的一些言论和做法上有点过于自负了，市场会对此进行反击。
I think Treasury Secretary Bessen is a bit too egotistical in his some of the statements that he's making and some of the things that he's doing, and the market will shoot against that.
所以我觉得我们现在看到的就是这种情况。
So I think that's what we're seeing now.
他手里有大把筹码。
He's the big stack.
他现在基本上掌握着世界上最大的对冲基金，但市场另有打算，而且我们在这个节目里一直说，利率会走高，而且是因为错误的原因走高。
He has the biggest hedge fund basically in the world right now at his disposal, But the market has other plans, and we've been saying on this show for a while that rates are going higher and they're going higher for the wrong reasons.
对，你可以用“傲慢”这个词。
Yeah, you can use the term hubris.
你知道，我们在这个行业干了很多年了，通常当有人竖起广告牌说，你知道，这就是我要做的，你们都是错的，你知道，大家就会开始反对他。
You know, we've been in the business for a long time, and normally when somebody kind of puts a billboard up and says, you know, this is what I'm gonna do and you guys are wrong, you know, folks kind of shoot against it.
而且，你知道，再说一次，他一直是一个非常成功的资金管理者。
And, you know, again, you know, he's been a very successful money manager.
我觉得管理美国财政部是另一种游戏，尤其是在现在的地缘政治形势下，很多人已经不把我们看作民主资本主义的可靠守护者了。
I think managing the Treasury of the United States is kind of a different game, especially when we're in a position right now geopolitically where there's a lot of folks who just don't see us as the sort of reliable steward of democratic capitalism right now.
而且我确实觉得，把财政部长贝森的情况拿来对比很重要，他是个政治任命的人选。
And I do think it's really important to kind of juxtapose what's going on with Treasury Secretary Bessent, who is a political pick.
对吧？
Right?
他是被参议院批准或确认的，然后还有美联储主席沃尔什。
And he was approved by the Senate or or confirmed by the Senate, and then Fed chair, Walsh.
所以美联储主席沃尔什上任了。
And so Fed chair, Walsh, comes into this.
他想少说点话，让……
He wants to kinda speak less, let the
市场会告诉他发生了什么。
market kinda tell him what's going on.
而且这
And it
看起来贝森完全站在对立面。
looks like Besson is on the exact opposite side.
而且看看货币政策如何与他们想做的财政措施相互作用，以及那些我不知道该怎么称呼的东西，会很有意思。
And it'll be really interesting to see how monetary works against some of the fiscal stuff they're looking to do, but also some of the I I don't know what you wanna call it.
不管那些扭曲操作之类的东西在做什么，它们本意是想影响货币政策，但目前还没有奏效。
Whatever these twists and all this stuff are doing, I mean, it's meant to kind of affect monetary policy, but right now, it has not proven to do so.
我觉得等这周通胀数据出来，看看美联储主席沃什和委员会怎么说、怎么做，那会比贝森现在说的更有影响力。
And I think once we get some of this inflation data this week and we see what Fed chair wash and what the panel says and what they do, I think that's gonna be a lot more impactful than what Besson is saying right
现在。
now.
我是说，我跟里克·桑泰利说过，财政部长贝森现在基本上是在跟全球两个最深、流动性最强的市场较劲，试图影响美元兑日元汇率以及国债市场的走向。
I mean, I was I was commenting to Rick Santelli that, you know, Treasury Secretary Besson is basically taking on two of the deepest, most liquid markets in the entire world at this point, trying to influence the direction of these the currency markets when it comes to dollar yen as well as the Treasury market.
当你为市场设定预期，结果却达不到预期时，人们就会措手不及。
When you set up the markets for expectations for something and it comes up short, that's when people get caught off sides.
对。
Yes.
所以他还没采取任何行动。
So he hasn't done anything yet.
这一切都只是姿态。
This has just been all posturing
没错。
Right.
目前来说。
At this point.
但我明白你的意思，我们说的是几十亿对几万亿。
But I get your point that we're talking about billions against trillions.
所以他靠堵住漏洞赢不了，但靠言辞可以赢。
So he can't win with sticking his finger in the dam, but he can win on rhetoric.
所以如果他在谈论这个，作为一个交易员，你会怎么想？我会说，我有很多其他地方可以选择去争。
So if he's talking about it, what's the risk if you're a trader and you say, I I have multiple other spots to pick my battles?
我要不要跟美国财政部对着干？
Do I wanna pick it with the US Treasury?
还有美联储，我觉得政府现在很可能在说，也许美联储会加息，或者降息不在计划之内。
And the Fed now, I think the the administration is most likely saying, maybe the Fed does raise rates or maybe a cut is not in the cards.
他们必须想出另一个策略来避免市场危机。
They had to come up with another strategy to avert the market crisis.
对他们来说，危机就是更高的利率。
Crisis for them, higher rates.
但当我们经历大幅回调时，市场正处于历史高位。
But when we take a deep pullback, markets are at all time highs.
市场看起来很有秩序。
The market seems organized.
我们还没有看到大规模的抛售。
We don't see massive selling yet.
我们现在进入了一个季节性波动的时期，但以前一切都看利率，我觉得市场现在传递出的信号是，他们对目前的利率水平感到安心。
We're coming into a seasonally volatile time period, but where it used to be all about rates, I think the market's telling a story that they're comfortable around rates right now.
最终总会有人胜出，但市场目前还没有出现抛售。
Someone's gonna win in the end, but the market has not sold off just yet.
我的意思是，关于利率，关键在于变化的速度。
I mean, it's for rates, it's about rate of change.
对吧？
Right?
就是利率的路径变化，这一点大家都很清楚，而且你知道，有两种看待方式。
It's it's the path travel that that is sort of well documented, and, you know, there are two ways to look at it.
我们已经大幅上升了。
We have moved up aggressively.
我们正逼近5%的水平，这可以被视为一个负面因素，但我们也可以说，我们正在接近三年前峰值的周年纪念。
We're flirting with five, and that could be seen as a negative, and we could also say that it's we're lapping the three year anniversary of the peak.
实际上，峰值出现在10月23日的盘中。
The peak actually was intraday on October 23.
三年前，也就是2023年，我们曾短暂突破5%。
Three years ago, 2023, we went briefly above 5%.
所以如果我们现在的水平还低于三年前，而股市从那以后已经翻了一倍，那这还算大问题吗？
So if we're below where we were three years ago, and the market's doubled since then, equities, is it a big problem?
关键在于变化的速度。
It's about rate of change.
市场能承受这个，但承受不了快速冲到5.12%、5.14%。
The market handles this, but it doesn't handle quickly going to five twelve, five fourteen.
如果到年底慢慢爬到5.12%、5.14%，我觉得那倒没什么。
If we were to inch there by the end of the year, five twelve, five fourteen, I don't think that would matter.
对。
Mhmm.
就是变化的速度。
It's rate of change.
目前来看，股市还在消化这个情况。
And for now, the equity markets are are dealing with it.
是吗？
Yes?
在图表上。
In the charts.
你看到的是512还是514？
Do you see five twelve or five fourteen?
上升趋势还在，他们完全有可能达到512，甚至稍微高一点，但一旦你开始谈论更高的数字，我觉得会有一些后果，这些后果目前还没显现出来。
The uptrend's intact, and there's no reason they can't get to five, a little bit above that, but once you start talking higher numbers than that, I think there will be some consequences, which have yet to be seen.
对。
Yeah.
当你说出像“我现在就是庄家”这样的话时，
When you make comments like, I am the house now,
我有不对称信息，是的。
I have I asymmetric information Yes.
当涉及到
When it comes to the
只是我觉得这样说不太合适。
It's just, I don't think it's particularly helpful.
就算是真的，也不一定非要说出来。
It may be true, doesn't mean you have to say it.
而且说实话，知道他们意识到有问题，我心里还挺踏实的。
And listen, I'm happy it calms me to know that they're aware that there's a problem.
问题是指日本那边的情况，还有这里债券市场的状况。
Problem in terms of what's going on with Japan and problem clearly what's what's going on in the bond market here.
他们能理解这点是好事，但没必要跟整个市场对着干。
That's a good thing that they understand it, but it's not necessarily a good thing to sort of take on the market in its entirety Mhmm.
说那种话，市场迟早会反击的。
And make comments like that because invariably, the market will shoot back against you.
我觉得我们现在看到的就是这个。
I think that's what we're seeing now.
不过，按照这些人的观点来说
To these guys' points, though
那些聪明人。
The smart guys.
对。
Yeah.
所以我就
So I was
想这么说。
gonna say that.
这些就是那些自负的人和聪明人。
These here are the ego and the smart guys.
市场表现挺好的。
The markets are doing just fine.
嗯。
Mhmm.
他们
They
是的。
are.
市场表现挺好的，那我们为什么还要担心这个呢？
The markets are doing just so why are we frightening about this?
其实我们并不担心。
Well, we're not frightening.
我们这边看起来挺淡定的。
We seem pretty calm over here.
我的意思是，就像卡特说的，你知道，回到2023年，现在的问题就是，我们刚刚突破了40万亿美元的债务水平。
I mean, it's more you know, when to your to Carter's point, you know, back in 2023, here's the one issue right now is like we just crossed that $40,000,000,000,000 debt sort of level here.
那时候，收益率是5%，我们的债务是32万亿美元。
Back then, when yields were at 5%, we had 32,000,000,000,000.
所以你想一下，当收益率走高的时候，财政部要融资这些债务，处境会非常艰难。
So if you think about that, when yields do go higher, this is a really difficult spot for the Treasury to be in to have to kind of, you know, finance all of that debt.
而且债务只会越来越高。
And it just keeps going higher and higher.
所以收益率走高到某个时候会是个巨大的拖累。哦，不。
So higher yields at some point is going to be a huge drag Well, on no.
哦，不。
Well, no.
我是说，那会对经济增长造成巨大的拖累。
I mean, it's just going be a huge drag on growth.
我是说，迟早的事。
I mean, sooner or later,
但市场确实，就像卡特说的，市场已经翻倍了。
But the market did to To Carter's point, the market has doubled.
对，股市对收益率上升并不在意。
Yeah, stock market has not been bothered about rates going higher.
我是说，这就是重点。
Mean, that's the point.
我是说，我们坐在这儿，而且……
Mean, we sit And
这就是难点所在。
that's here the hard part.
临界点在哪里？
What's the tipping point?
那个数字是多少？
What is that number?
没人知道答案。
Nobody knows the answer to that.
我的意思是，如果最终取决于你赚钱的利率，那么对于这些大公司来说，利润率太高了，所以利率上升并不重要。
I mean, if it is predicate ultimately always on the rate at which you can earn profits, the profit margins are so big for these big companies that moving up in rates doesn't matter.
利率很重要，但对于这些大型AI公司，或者随便你怎么称呼它们，科技公司也好，它们的利润率太丰厚了，利润太大了，利率实际上不会影响它们，除非利率大幅上升。
Percent rate matters, but for these big AI, whatever you want to call it, right, tech or whatever, the margins are so fat, the profits are so big, the interest rate doesn't really impact them unless it were to get wildly higher.
但事实确实如此。
But it is actually.
如果你想想看，这轮AI建设已经持续了相当长一段时间了。
If you think about this, we're getting kinda long in the tooth of this AI build out.
对吧？
Right?
而且如果现在资产负债表上有1万亿美元，他们就得想尽办法，把这些资产转移到表外，搞各种特殊目的实体，还有那些私募股权、私募信贷公司，以及各种房地产投资，我是说，这真的有点拥挤了，而且表外还有1.65万亿美元。
And if there's a 1,000,000,000,000.5 on balance sheet right now and they have to get really creative and go off balance sheet with all these SPVs, we have all these private equity and private crack credit companies and all these real estate investment I mean, it's really getting a bit crowded, and there's 1,650,000,000,000 off balance sheet.
对吧？
Right?
他们为什么要这么做呢？
And why are they doing that?
很多这样的公司，那些信贷，我们明天收盘后就能看到甲骨文的情况。
A lot of these companies, the credits, we're gonna see Oracle tomorrow night after the close.
我是说，他们以大约7%、8%、9%的利率在融资，很多新云公司也是这样。
I mean, they're raising money at, like, seven, eight, 9%, a lot of these neo clouds too.
所以迟早，需求会跟不上。
So sooner or later, you don't get the demand.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
你这是在把好东西都挤出去了。
You're getting you're you're crowding out all the good stuff.
那是微软。
That's the Microsoft.
那是谷歌。
That's the Google.
那是亚马逊。
That's the Amazon.
那些才是信用好的公司，但其他的那些，就是那种增量式的终点线。
Those are the ones with great credits, but the other stuff, it's that sort of incremental finish line.
就是那种一步步的最后一公里，能带我们到达应许之地，也就是投资回报，而这完全是由债务推动的，而且利率越来越高。
It's that incremental incremental last mile that's gonna get us to the promised land, which is return on this investment, and that is being 100% fueled by debt that's coming increasingly at higher rates.
市场上有两种罪，就是流动性不足。
In there's two sort of sins in market, illiquidity.
对。
Mhmm.
对吧？
Right?
你要是碰那些特别小市值的股票，会被打得很惨，还有债务问题。
You mess around with really small cap stocks, you get drilled, and debt.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，显然，以美国政府的情况来看，好像从来都不是问题。
I mean and and obviously, with the case of the US government, it never seems to matter.
嗯，这里，这里，这里，我的观点很好。
Well, here here here My good point.
相对而言，这些公司被低估了。
Puts to these companies on a relative basis.
那么这里有一家公司，CoreWeave。
So here's a company, CoreWeave.
对吧？
Okay?
它的市值是530亿美元。
It's got a $53,000,000,000 market cap.
他们亏损巨大。
They lose a ton of money.
他们背负了510亿美元的债务。
They have $51,000,000,000 in debt.
这是我们见过的科技公司中，在这个规模上杠杆率最高的公司之一。
This is one of the most levered companies we've ever seen in technology at this scale.
所以，这家公司必须一切顺利，才能执行计划并生存下去，顺便说一句。
So things have to go so right for this company to be able to execute and stick around, by the way.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
因为如果近期出现任何小问题，那就是那种情况。
Because if there's any hiccups in the near term, that's just one of these situations.
我不是在针对这家公司。
And I'm not picking on this company.
这家公司可能处境很好。
This might be in a great situation.
他们的杠杆可能太高了，迟早所有问题都会暴露出来。
They may have so much leverage that sooner or later, everything gets realized.
所有这些需求。
All of this demand.
对吧？
Right?
而且这家公司可能会达到5000亿美元的市值。
And and this company could be, you know, a $500,000,000,000 market cap.
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
但现在所有这些债务，如果我们遇到某种信贷危机，他们首先会抛售这些股票。
But all that debt right now, if we do have some sort of credit situation, they're coming for those stocks first.
对。
Mhmm.
我的意思是，咱们就假装甚至没有
I mean, let's let's pretend that there isn't even
信贷危机。
a credit situation.
虽然本身没有危机，但它确实会影响你计算这些投资的IRR回报率。
There's a situation per se, but it does impact how you calculate the rate of return for the IRR on these investments.
我的意思是，它可能会延长你收回借款的时间。
I mean, it it prolongs the time frame potentially to recoup what you borrowed.
所以这会改变你计算和看待这只股票的方式。
And so it changes how you calculate how you view the stock.
我的意思是，现实是
I mean, the reality is
如果没有失误，或者你知道，某种大的动荡。
Without without a a mistake or, you know, some kind of big dislocation.
美国经济并不是为高利率而设计的。
This is The US economy is not built for higher rates.
而且，美联储可以降低利率。
And, the Fed can lower rates.
沃尔什主席今天下午五点半来节目上说我们要降息。
He he chair Walsh can come on the show today in in 05:30 and say we're lowering rates.
利率不会
Rates won't
意味着利率会上升。
mean rates will go higher.
那正是将要发生的事情。
That's exactly what will happen.
我希望某些人能明白这一点，因为我觉得那才是会发生的。
And I think I hope certain people understand that because I think that's what will happen.
但关键是，美国经济不是为高利率设计的，现在这个状态，市场肯定也不是为高利率准备的，但我们现在面临的就是这种情况。
But the point is, it's not an economy built for higher rates at this it's positioned, and it's certainly not a market that's built for higher rates, but that's what we have right now.
但是，投资资本的回报率，他们随时可以收紧，关掉那个水龙头。
But but the return on invested capital, though, they could always pull back and turn off that spigot.
就像亚马逊的AWS一样，那是它的增长引擎。
It's the same way that Amazon was with AWS, where that was the growth engine.
它可以促进增长，也可以收紧。
It could foster that growth or it could pull it back.
所以，如果那些大型科技股是推动市场翻倍的主力，而它们又因为支出过多导致市场腰斩，那么它们就会削减开支。
So if the mega cap names are the ones that were responsible for the market doubling, and they're the ones that are gonna be responsible for cutting in half because they're spending too much, they cut they cut back on spending.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，关于通胀预期和下周的美联储会议，我们请到了帕台农的首席经济学家格雷格·达科。
For more on what to expect from inflation and next week's Fed meeting, let's bring in Parthenon's chief economist, Greg Daco.
格雷格，很高兴见到你。
Greg, always good to see you.
你对通胀率有什么预期？这又会如何影响美联储下周的决策？
What are you expecting in terms of the inflation rates and how it feeds into what the Fed does next week?
嗯，我认为通胀形势有两个方面。
Well, I think we have two elements when it comes to the inflation picture.
第一个因素是短期内的。
The first one is a very short term.
我认为下一次发布CPI数据时，核心通胀环比会上升约0.2%。
I think at the next release, when it comes to the CPI data, we're gonna see core inflation rise about 0.2% month over month.
我提到0.2%，因为这是美联储决策者的一个关键参考点。
I mentioned 0.2% because that's a key anchor for Fed policymakers.
如果高于这个数字，很可能在九月的会议上触发加息。
Anything above that will likely trigger a rate hike at the September meeting.
从更长远来看，我认为这其实更重要，能源价格上涨会传导到核心通胀，这对美国经济来说是个真正的风险，因为目前经济有几个增长支柱表现坚韧，但在经济活动的基本驱动力方面，也就是消费者支出方面，我们也有风险敞口。
When we look further out on the horizon, and I think that's actually more important, we're going to see higher energy prices feed into core inflation, and that's a real risk for The US economy because we have an environment where there are a few pillars of growth that are resilient, but we also have exposure when it comes to the underlying drivers of economic activity, namely consumer spending activity.
消费者支出在很大程度上是由股市强劲表现带来的财富积累所支撑的。
Consumer spending has been financed to a great degree by wealth accumulation coming from very star strong stock market earnings.
如果去掉这个因素，股市表现平平，越来越依赖收入，那问题就来了，因为目前实际工资增长实际上在收缩。
If you take that out and if you have a flat stock market environment and you're increasingly relying on income, that's where the rubber hits the road because we're currently in an environment where real wage growth is actually contracting.
实际工资已经连续五个月收缩，这对许多家庭来说是一个关键制约因素。
Real wages have been contracting for the last five months, and that's a key constraint for many households.
不过，这个情况和伊朗战争开始以来我们看到的油价水平及其传导效应有什么不同呢？
How is this picture, though, different from other periods since the Iran war started where we've seen oil prices where they are and and we've seen them feed through?
真正的问题在于冲击的累积效应。
It's the accumulation of shocks, which is really an issue.
可以说，过去两年我们经历了一系列负面的供应冲击，这些冲击一直在伤害消费者和企业，因为生活成本和经营成本持续上涨。
What we've had over the past two years, arguably, is a series of negative supply shocks that have been hurting consumers, hurting businesses, because the cost of living, the cost of doing business has continuously increased.
我们刚才还在讨论利率和资本成本。
We were just talking about interest rates and the cost of capital.
现在的资本成本比一年前高得多。
The cost of capital is much greater than it was just a year ago.
许多企业的商品成本和投入成本也大幅上升。
The cost of goods, the cost of inputs for many businesses are also much higher.
所以，你问这次冲击会带来什么影响，实际上，这次冲击是在之前多次冲击的基础上发生的，这些冲击共同导致了更高的通胀环境，并限制了整体产能。
So when you're asking what does this shock do, well, this shock comes on the back of a number of prior shocks that are leading to this higher inflationary environment and constraining gross capacity.
我经常和客户谈论本可以更好的经济状况。
I often talk to clients about the economy that could have been.
我们现在本来可以谈论的是美国经济以3%以上的速度增长。
We could have been right now talking about a US economy growing at a 3% plus.
但实际上，我们谈论的是一个2%的经济，这已经符合其潜在增长率了。
Instead, we're talking about a 2% economy, and that is in line with its potential.
得益于我们目前看到的人工智能热潮，它本可以增长得更快。
It could have grown much faster thanks to the AI boom that we're currently seeing.
不幸的是，我们正处于这种负面供给冲击的环境中。
Unfortunately, we're in this negative supply shock environment.
正如梅尔所知，NFL赛季今晚开始。
As Mel knows, the NFL season starts tonight.
梅尔会观看比赛的。
Mel will be watching.
比尔·帕塞尔斯常说，你的战绩就代表你的水平。
Bill Parcells used to say, you are what your record says it is.
所以如果你战绩是5胜12负，那你就是一支烂队。
So if you are five and twelve, you are a lousy team.
我的问题是，4.1%的失业率真的像看起来那么好吗？
My question is, is a 4.1% unemployment as great as that seems?
这是一个好数字，还是就业数据背后有什么让你担心的问题？
Is it a great number or are there things below the surface in the employment picture that concerns you?
所以这是一个扎实的数字。
So it's a solid number.
我觉得不可否认，4%出头的失业率非常令人鼓舞。
I think there's no escaping the fact that a low 4% unemployment rate is very encouraging.
很多想找工作的人都有工作。
Many people that want a job have a job.
我想提出的问题是：如果工资增长在放缓，而通胀在加速，它们迟早会交叉。
The question I am going to pose is the following: If you have an environment where wage growth is decelerating while inflation is accelerating, at one point they cross over.
那个交叉点发生在五个月前。
And that point happened five months ago.
五个月前，通胀超过了工资增长。
Five months ago, we had inflation surpassing wage growth.
这意味着实际工资正在收缩。
That means that real wages are in contraction.
你和我消费时依赖的是什么？
What do you and I depend on when it comes to spending?
是月底的收入。
Our income at the end of the month.
所以这确实是我们必须密切关注的关键基础支柱。
So that's really the key fundamental pillar that we have to watch very attentively.
因此，我对美联储在这种环境下可能加息非常谨慎，因为加息很可能不成比例地影响对利率敏感的行业，而不一定能解决通胀高于2%目标的根本原因。
And that's why I am very cautious about the Fed potentially raising rates in this environment because it's likely to impact interest rate sensitive sectors disproportionately without necessarily affecting the underlying causes of inflation being above the 2% target.
你并没有解决中东冲突的问题。
You're not addressing the Middle East conflict.
你也没有解决关税问题。
You're not addressing tariffs.
你还没有解决人工智能领域非常缺乏弹性的资本支出热潮。
You're not addressing what is a very inelastic capex boom for AI.
那么，紧缩政策除了影响一些金融条件和市场上某些可能过热的领域之外，到底还能做什么呢？
So what does tightening really do beyond just affecting some financial conditions and some pockets perhaps of exuberance in the market?
所以，格雷格，这正是我接下来想说的。
So, Greg, that's where I was actually gonna going to go.
它解决不了任何问题。
It doesn't solve anything.
它不会钻一口新井。
It doesn't drill a new well.
它也不会带来其他任何东西。
It doesn't bring anything else.
这是供给冲击。
This is a supply shock.
所以，并非所有的通胀都是一样的。
So all inflation is not created equal.
对。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
有需求拉动，也有供给推动，或者随便你怎么说，但这次是供给冲击。
There's demand pull, supply supply push, or or however you wanna phrase it, but this is a supply shock.
那我们还在考虑加息，是不是在犯大错？
So are they making a big mistake that we're even contemplating this?
因为这事一开始就是政治性的，鲍威尔和特朗普，最初是特朗普那边施压。
Because it was political with Powell and Trump coming from Trump originally.
现在感觉又变成政治性的了，从另一个方向来，你要求加息是出于政治姿态，而不是经济考量。
Now it feels political coming from the other way that you are demanding that we raise rates as a political gesture versus an economic one.
这是个很有意思的观点，我听到很多人在说，美联储为了维护信誉必须加息。
It's a very interesting point, and I think what I'm hearing a lot of is this narrative that the Fed has to raise for credibility purposes.
我觉得这挺可悲的，因为我们有政治压力，现在又担心财政主导，财政部干预市场，而且新任美联储主席缺乏透明度，这些都让美联储的信誉受到质疑。
And I think that's a sad situation because we've had political pressure, we've had the fear now of fiscal dominance with the treasury intervening in markets, and we have a lack of transparency from the new Fed chair that are all contributing to this question of Fed credibility.
在当今环境下，这确实可悲，因为如果你认为通胀已经超过目标五年多，如果你担心这些价格压力会传导到核心通胀，如果你认为通胀预期有脱锚的风险，你完全可以有理有据地主张加息；但如果你认为潜在的通胀动态并不具有通胀性，你也可以非常理智地主张维持利率不变。
That is sad in today's environment because you can make a very rational argument for raising monetary policy if you think that inflation has been above the target for more than five years, if you fear a transmission of these price pressures into core inflation, If you think that inflation expectations are at risk of becoming de anchored, you could very well argue for a rate hike, but you can also argue very intelligibly for a hold in terms of monetary policy because underlying inflation dynamics are not inflationary.
工资增长是反通胀的，而且通胀预期仍然相对稳定。
Wage growth is disinflationary, and inflation expectations are still fairly anchored.
所以两种观点都有道理，这就是为什么政策制定者处境艰难，他们必须弄清楚是什么在推动通胀，趋势如何演变，以及收紧货币政策是否真的能解决通胀上升的根本原因。
So you could make both sides of the argument, and that's why policymakers are in this very difficult situation of having to ask what's driving inflation, how is the trend evolving, and does tighter monetary policy really address the underlying root cause of higher inflation.
那如果解决不了，美联储还能做什么呢？
So if it doesn't, then is there anything the Fed can do?
美联储可以在信息传达上非常明确。
The Fed can be very clear in terms of its messaging.
第一，实现2%的通胀目标。
One, you deliver 2% inflation.
这不是一夜之间就能做到的。
You don't deliver it overnight.
这需要时间，也需要保持相对紧缩的货币政策立场。
It's going to take time, and it's going to take a monetary policy stance that remains relatively restrictive.
这是第一点。
That's number one.
第二，你要意识到经济可能面临的风险。
Number two, you are aware of the potential risk for the economy.
你得谈谈可能出现的各种情况。
You have to talk about potential scenarios.
我们现在处于一个高度不确定的环境中。
We're in this highly uncertain environment.
面对不确定性，人们往往倾向于什么都不做。
The tendency when there is uncertainty is to not do anything.
你不能表现得好像什么都没做，只是看着而不采取行动。
You can't appear as though you're not doing anything and just watching without necessarily acting.
你必须说，这些是可能的情况。
You have to say, these are the potential scenarios.
在这种情况下，我会这样应对。
This is how I would react in this environment.
它不会那样做的。
It's not going to do that.
这不是前瞻性指引。
It's not forward guidance.
问题就在这里。
That's the problem.
凯文·罗尔把前瞻性指引和反应函数混为一谈，把我们都搞糊涂了。
Kevin Rohr has confused us all by mixing forward guidance and a reaction function.
前瞻性指引本质上是一种无条件的决心，要做某件事。
A forward guidance is essentially an unconditional resolve to do something.
无论如何，我都会收紧货币政策。
No matter what, I will tighten monetary policy.
而反应函数是有条件的。
A reaction function is conditional.
如果通胀没有回到2%的目标水平，我就会收紧货币政策。
If inflation does not move back towards the 2% target, I will tighten monetary policy.
这两者是完全不同的东西。
These are very distinct things.
后者，也就是反应函数，对央行行长来说是基本常识，美联储主席应该明确表达这一点。
The latter, the reaction function, is one zero one for a central banker, and that should be expressed by the Fed chair.
对。
Yeah.
格雷格，很高兴见到你。
Greg, great to see you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
总是很愉快。
Always a pleasure.
格雷格·达特科，帕特农。
Greg Datco, Parthenon.
帕特农？
Parthenon?
卡特也加入了帕特农。
Carter's into Parthenon as well.
那是另一个帕特农，不过当然，他也可以进帕特农。
That's a different Parthenon, but sure, he could be in the Parthenon too.
他说得很有道理，而且他应该进，因为他说的观点非常出色。
Makes great point, and he should be, because the points he makes are excellent.
我的看法是，你看，我觉得他们不应该加息，也不应该降息。
I'm of the belief, look, I don't think they should raise, I don't think they should cut.
我们一直在说的观点是，他们可能什么都不做，一直拖到春天，也没问题。
The point we've been making is they could probably do nothing until the spring and be okay.
但问题在于，现在债券市场在替他们做所有的事情。
But the problem with that is the bond market's doing everything for them right now.
我的意思是，你想怎么说都行，但现在财政部基本上是在和美联储对着干，市场正在接管一切，你几乎每天都能在货币市场上看到这种表现，当然在债券市场上也是。
I mean, you say what you want, but Treasury is basically fighting against the Federal Reserve right now and the market's taking over, and you're seeing it manifest almost on a daily basis in currencies and obviously in the bond market.
我们还没谈到下周要举行的央行会议，交易员们普遍预期欧洲央行、英国央行和日本央行都会加息，而且到明年年底前都会果断加息。
We haven't even talked about the central bank meetings that are happening next week and how traders are vastly expecting all of those ECB, b o e, bo j to all raise rates and decisively raise rates by the end of next year.
对。
Yep.
他们有单一的任务，所以这让他们与众不同，而且不同
They have single mandates, so that differentiates them and different
但是但是，利率更高更高，哦，
But but the poll higher higher Oh,
对。
yeah.
这是全球性的。
It's a global.
我们生活在一个全球利率的世界里。
We live in a global rate world.
所以无论方向如何，通常所有央行都会跟随，这就是为什么你会看到加息概率达到60%。
So wherever the direction is, normally, that's where all central banks go to, and that's why you see those odds of him raising reach 60%.
但一个月前，我们看到的CPI是大家谈论的最低读数，我不知道是多少年来的最低。
But a month ago, we had CPI that everyone was talking about was the lowest print in I don't know how many years.
所以你可以看到这种情况瞬间反转。
So you could see that flip on a dime.
我跟你说，我最后再讲一点就收尾。
I'll tell you I'll I'll wrap it up with one last thing.
五年期、十年期、二十年的盈亏平衡通胀率，别跟我说通胀要失控了。
Five year, ten year, twenty year breakevens, don't tell me inflation is running away.
它们正好在美联储2%的目标附近，而且波动很小。
They're right at the Fed's 2% and small target.
好的。
Alright.
与此同时，在波斯湾最新一轮袭击之后，油价连续第七天上涨。
Meantime, oil prices rising for a seventh straight day after the latest round of strikes in the Persian Gulf.
西德克萨斯中质原油触及6月初以来的最高水平，而布伦特原油近七周来首次突破每桶100美元。
WTI crude hitting its highest level since early June, while Brent topped a $100 a barrel for the first time in nearly seven weeks.
这一走势今天提振了能源股。
The move helping energy stocks rally today.
XLE收于历史新高，其中APA领涨。
The XLE closing at a fresh record led by gains in APA.
埃克森美孚、雪佛龙和瓦莱罗。
ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Valero.
卡特，你怎么看这个走势？
Carter, what do you make of this move?
嗯，我们才刚刚回到抛售前的高点，所以经历了大幅回撤，也大幅回升。
Well, again, we've only just now got back above the pre sell off high, so major drawdown, a major recovery.
有些板块已经涨得很高了，我们会在那些位置卖出。
There are areas that are very extended, we're sellers of those.
特别是PSX、瓦莱罗和MPC。
That's particularly PSX, Valero, MPC.
雪佛龙和埃克森没什么问题，其他的也还好。
Nothing wrong with Chevron, nothing wrong with Exxon, and others.
总的来说，这显然是个很小的板块。
Generally speaking, obviously a very small sector.
对。
Yeah.
权重只有百分之三点五，但讽刺的是，最大的板块，科技股占38%的权重，这两个板块今年至今都涨了48%。
Three and a half percent weight, and ironically, the biggest sector, 38% weight tech, they're both up 48% year to date.
所以小角色有时候也能干大事。
So little guys can sometimes do big things.
我觉得，我们讨论了很久的一件事，大概过去一年到一年半，就是能源股有多吸引人。
I think, again, one thing we've talked about now for a good deal of time, probably the last year, year and a half, is how attractive energy stocks are.
现在，这一切就发生在你眼前，XLE创了历史新高。
Now, it's happening right before your eyes, and you have XLE at an all time high.
原油价格远没有春天那么高，但这再次说明，你不需要原油上涨也能参与这些股票，炼油商在下游表现很好。
Crude is not nearly where it was in the spring, and it goes yet again to show you you don't need crude to participate for these stocks too, and refiners do well downstream.
OIH看起来正在突破。
OIH seemingly is breaking out.
你继续持有能源交易吧。
You stay with the energy trade here.
接下来，零售业的艰难时期。
Coming up, rough times for retail.
展开剩余字幕（还有 365 条）
今天受冲击最严重的股票，以及现在是不是该趁打折捡便宜的时候。
The stocks getting hit hardest today and whether it's time to scoop up the names on the discount rack.
还有，虽然晚了一天，但一点也不差钱。
Plus a day late, but not a dollar short.
Meta股价在发布重大AI智能体后第二天大涨，为什么投资者纷纷涌入，你是否也应该跟进？
Meta shares rallying the day after its big AI agent reveal why investors are rushing in and whether you should too.
别走开，马上回来。
Don't go anywhere fast when you'd be back in two.
NFL开赛时间到了。
It's NFL kickoff time.
独家NFL球队估值，与体育商业专家Michael Ozenia一起。
Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert Michael Ozenia.
NFL是迄今为止最赚钱的联赛。
The NFL is by far the most profitable league.
NFL球队估值，现在就在cnbc.com/sport上。
NFL team valuations now on cnbc.com/sport.
欢迎回到《Fast Money》。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
今天消费类股票又承压了。
The consumer trade under pressure again today.
便利店运营商Casey's General的股价今天创下2020年以来最大单日跌幅，尽管其盈利和营收都超出预期；宠物用品公司Chewy的股价则大跌两位数，因为消费者削减了在宠物身上的开支。
Shares of convenience store Casey's General seeing their worst day since 2020 despite an earnings beat and revenue beat, and pet supply company Chewy down double digits as consumers paired back spending on their furry friends.
可怜的宠物们。
Poor friends.
其他消费类股票，比如Lululemon和Nike，也在延续近期的低迷走势，就连最近表现亮眼的Target今天也出现了回调。
Other consumer stocks like Lululemon and Nike adding to their rough runs, and even recent darling Target saw a pullback in today's session.
你会怎么定义这种疲软？
How how would you define this weakness?
嗯，让我们看看。
Well, let's see.
有一些玩家加入了这场已经持续一段时间的趋势。
There's players joining what has been going on for a while.
对吧？
Right?
所以沃尔玛和好市多，在很多方面确实是最大的两家，不管你说它们是杂货店也好，它们几个月来一直在停滞、回落，形成了从看涨到看跌的反转形态。
So Walmart and Costco, really the two biggest in many ways, regardless of fact that you might say it's grocery store, have been stalling and rolling, topping out bullish to bearish reversal cells for months.
然后TJX也加入了。
And then TJX joined the party.
你看像凯西这样的公司又跌了，然后伯灵顿突然也跌了。
You see dropping again from things like a Casey, and then Burlington out of nowhere.
所以就是一个接一个。
So it's it's it's one after another.
XRT里有一些股票。
The XRT, there are some names.
看看阿伯克龙比和菲奇，创出新高，但整个非必需消费品板块表现很差，因为特斯拉和家得宝，还有零售股尤其糟糕。
Look at Abercrombie and Fitch, bringing out to big new highs, but the general space of consumer discretion is poor because of Tesla and Home Depot, and then retailers in particular.
然后你还有像迪士尼和耐克这样的大牌公司。
Then you've got marquee names like, think about it, Disney and Nike.
整个板块总体来说不是个适合待的地方。
The whole space is generally not a place to be.
另外，如果你看业绩，就像卡特说的，你得看看谁拿到的关税退款支票最大。
Plus, if you look at results, to Carter's point, you have to pull out who got the biggest tariff refund checks.
我们看到耐克拿了一大笔，塔吉特也拿了一大笔。
So we saw Nike get a big check, we saw Target get a big check.
沃尔玛拿到的最大，但他们说会把那笔钱省下来给消费者。
Walmart got the biggest check of all, but said that they were putting that back into savings for the consumer.
联邦快递和UPS也在给消费者返钱。
FedEx, UPS, they were giving rebates back to the consumer.
要看看谁在靠这种一次性的、非经常性的关税退款支票来跑赢大盘、上调指引。
Try to see who's beating, who's raising guidance based on a one off non rec duplicated issue with the tariff refund check.
对。
Mhmm.
还有，露露乐蒙也拿到了支票，虽然没其他家那么大，但他们也一直在拿。
And see, Lululemon got a check, not as big as the other ones, but they're still getting checks.
看看谁是因为那些关税退款支票而表现好，但下个季度这些支票就不会再有了。
See who's beating because of those tariff refund checks that will not be duplicated next quarter.
就算不提退款支票，你看耐克，不管支票多大，也不管会不会再来一次，耐克就是处境艰难。
Even aside from refund checks, I mean, you take a look at Nike, and Nike's just in the doghouse regardless of how big a check or how if it's gonna be recur whatever it is.
对。
Yeah.
耐克自己可能也是，对。
Nike's its own probably Yeah.
有故事。
Story.
我是说，耐克很多问题都是自己造成的，但听着，竞争会在你最意想不到的时候以有意义的方式出现。
I mean, a lot of Nike's self inflicted, but listen, competition comes in a meaningful way when you least expect it.
这就是为什么，你看，露露乐蒙也在经历同样的事情。
That's what look, Lululemon's going through the same thing.
专业零售商，希望破灭的地方，这是杰夫·麦基的一句好话，而且这种情况一再上演。
Specialty retailers where hope goes to die, a great line from Jeff Mackie, and it's playing out over and over again.
但我要告诉你，美国运通已经创下了新高。
But I will tell you, American Express made its high.
卡特现在可能正在看今年一月份的数据。
Carter probably looking at it now in January of this year.
从那以后它的表现就一直不太好。
It's traded poorly since.
现在它又涨上来了，处于上升趋势，感觉要突破前高了。
It's up again and up an uptrend, and it feels like it's gonna break through it.
那我为什么提这个呢？
Now, why do I mention that?
你猜怎么着？
Well, guess what?
他们承担信用风险，而且这是个顶级品牌，所以逾期率在上升。
They take credit risk, and this is a premier brand, so delinquency rates are up.
但没人谈论这件事。
Nobody's talking about it.
他们应该讨论一下。
They should.
消费者的健康状况远没有人们想象的那么好。
The consumer's not nearly as healthy as people want to believe.
对。
Yeah.
而且刚才和
And just talking to
格雷格聊的时候。
To Greg.
对。
Yeah.
和格雷格。
To Greg.
他本来想说，你知道，4.1。
He was going say, you know, 4.1.
我们现在是充分就业。
We're in full employment.
工资也涨了。
We've had wage growth.
如果通胀降下来，对消费者应该是好事。
If inflation comes down, that should be good for the consumer.
但接着你就忘了那些非必需消费品牌，尤其是零售业之类的。
But then you go forget the discretionary names, you know, especially retail, that sort of thing.
我的意思是，迪克体育用品在跟着耐克走。
I mean, you know, Dick's is tracking Nike.
你知道，还有LOLLU，这样的例子数不胜数。
You know, we know LOLLU and the list goes on and on.
但真正稳的是沃尔玛、好市多和克罗格。
But it's Walmart, and it's Costco, and it's Kroger.
如果你只看这些股票的表现，我觉得这就是我们想说的——它反映的消费者情况很不一样，至少从投资者在市场上的态度来看是这样。
And if you're just looking through the way that these stocks act, it's gonna tell you, I think this is what we're all trying to say here, it says something very different about a consumer, at least the way investors are expressing that view in the markets.
后面还有更多快钱要进来。
There's a lot more fast money to come.
接下来是这些内容。
Here's what's coming up next.
迟到总比不到好，Meta股价上涨，因为华尔街对该公司最新AI发布感到兴奋，新的智能体正在与竞争对手较量，这对股票未来可能意味着什么。
Better late than meta, shares getting a boost as Wall Street perks up to the company's latest AI reveal, the new agent taking on the competition, and what it could mean for the stock's future.
说到新技术，苹果产品发布会你需要知道的一切，以及你的iPhone即将迎来的大胆折叠设计。
And speaking of new tech, everything you need to know from Apple's product event and the bold fold coming for your iPhone.
你现在收看的是《快钱》节目，正在时代广场纳斯达克市场现场直播。
You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square.
广告之后马上回来。
We're back right after this.
现在是NFL开赛时间。
It's NFL kickoff time.
独家NFL球队估值，体育商业专家迈克尔·奥泽尼亚带来分析。
Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert Michael Ozenia.
NFL绝对是目前最赚钱的联赛。
The NFL is by far the most profitable league.
NFL球队估值现在可以在cnbc.com/sport上查看。
NFL team valuations now on cnbc.com/sport.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
Meta今天大涨近7%，因为他们发布了新的个人AI助手Muse。
Meta popping nearly 7% today after unveiling its new personal AI agent, Muse.
公司把这个产品定位成分级订阅服务，有免费版，也有每月20到100美元不等的付费档位。
The company is selling the product as a tiered subscription service with a free option as well as tiers of monthly payments of $20 to $100.
Meta是今天七大科技股中唯一上涨的，过去一个月涨幅已经超过10%。
Meta was the only Mag seven stock in the green today, is now up more than 10% in the last month.
Medis的首席AI官王亚历山大昨晚表示，目前的使用量远远超出了他们的预期。
Wang Alexander Wang, who's the chief AI officer at Medis, said last night that the usage of news was way past their expectations at this point.
而且还会继续增长。
And it's gonna be.
我的意思是，免费的话，他们基本上就是把很多电脑里都有的内存和算力免费给你用，而且是在他们的服务器上。
I mean, on a free basis, I mean, they're basically giving you the memory and the compute that's like in a lot of computers they could buy, and it's for free, and it's on their servers.
所以这对他们来说是个机会，显然可以把之前因为跟同行相比被诟病的那些投入变现，而且他们还有那个分发渠道。
And so here's the opportunity for them to obviously monetize that spend that they've been penalized for relative to a bunch of their peers, and, you know, they have that distribution.
我们昨晚聊过这个。
We talked about it last night.
订阅加交易收入这种组合，对这家公司来说基本上是全新的东西，他们终于开始用WhatsApp赚钱了。
It's the combination of subscription and then transaction revenues is gonna be something that is very new to this company for all intents and purposes, and they're finally monetizing WhatsApp.
所以，我觉得这会有戏。
So, again, I think this is gonna be something.
会不会是Threads呢？
Might it be threads?
我们会不会过六个月左右回头看，然后说，对，就是它。
Might we look back in, you know, six months or something and say, yeah.
我的意思是，Threads是自TikTok以来增长最快的应用，几年前发布的时候，现在都没人提了。
I mean, threads was the fastest growing app, I think, since TikTok when they released that a few years ago, and no one even talks about it.
没人用那个。
No one uses that.
所以这家公司有过一些失败，但这次是智能体AI，时机正好。
So this company has had some fails, but this seems like agentic AI, this is the right time for it.
至于能不能盈利，可能得一两年后才知道。
And whether it's gonna be profitable for them or not, we're not gonna know probably for a a year or two.
你昨晚说得特别好。
You had an excellent point last night.
对。
Mhmm.
我特别标注了，因为请说。
And I highlighted because Please.
他们太……
They're so
记下来。
Write it down.
丹。
Dan.
丹。
Dan.
现在就记下来。
Write it down now.
完全不是这样，不。
Getting completely, like no.
但就它能获取的信息来说，是的。
But in terms of the information it has access to Yeah.
在Meta平台上，它可能对AI代理来说没那么有用，无法真正完成每个用户需要的工作。
On the Meta platform, maybe it may not be as useful to an AI agent to actually do work that needs to be done for any individual user.
如果它要访问你的社交媒体和WhatsApp等，它没有电子邮件。
If it's gonna go through your social media and your WhatsApp, etcetera, it doesn't have an email.
它没有，你知道的，那些Gemini或者苹果的Siri AI可能有的其他功能。
It doesn't have, you know, all these other things that may be a a Gemini or, you know, an Apple, a Siri AI might have.
丹对技术的拥抱程度，是我见过的人里没有的。
Dan embraces technology like no person that I've met.
我们昨晚还提到另一个点，就是风险回报比，如果你要用这个词来形容Facebook的话，那真是非常惊人。
The other point we made last night was the risk reward, if you want to use that term for Facebook here, is extraordinary.
就是说，下行空间很有限。
Mean, there's a lot limited downside.
而对于一个基本上全球一半人口都在用它的一个或多个平台的公司来说，上行空间巨大。
There's huge upside for a company that basically has half the global population on one or all of its platforms.
所以只要一开这个开关，这可能会是一个巨大的推动力。
So you flip this switch, and this could be a huge mover.
我们昨晚就说过这个。
We said it last night.
今天股价也动了。
The stock moved today.
我仍然认为这只股票还有更多上涨空间。
I still think there's more upside in the name.
你为什么觉得这只股票还有上涨空间？
Why do you think more upside in the name?
好，我们来说说当前的走势。
Well, let's talk about the current move.
对吧？
Right?
我们已经从低点上涨了25%。
We've moved up 25% off of the low.
所以这只股票是在十三个月前达到峰值的。
So this is a stock that peaked thirteen months ago.
那是8月15日。
It was August 15.
现在已经是9月15日了。
Here we are, September 15.
十三个月后，它当时是什么价位？
Thirteen months later, What was it?
每股800美元。
$800 a share.
它跌到差不多5.25美元，现在这是第四次，你数数，反弹幅度达到25%或更多，而且每一次都失败了。
It drops to almost $5.25, and now this is the fourth, count them, ricochet of 25% or greater, and each one of them Failed.
都失败了。
Failed.
是的。
Yes.
而且现在到了下降趋势线。
And it's up to a downtrend line.
我觉得如果你抓住了这波，就该获利了结，想办法降低仓位。
I think you take profits if you caught this well, reduce exposure somehow.
对。
Yeah.
到目前为止，它已经处于下降趋势线中一年了，甚至超过一年。
It's been in to to that point, it's been in a declining trend line for a year now, a little bit over a year.
但当你想到信任，而做这种事又需要信任时，你不会首先想到Meta。
But when you think about trust, and you need trust for this type of endeavor, you don't think about meta first.
对吧？
Right?
就是，我
It's just, I
意思是，对。
mean Yeah.
别说得
Not to be
太轻巧了，去问问温克莱沃斯兄弟吧。
glib, ask the Winklevoss'.
对吧？
Right?
这件事的根源我不想提得太远，但想想他们一路走来做的那些事，花钱太多，然后又削减开支。
This was based on something that I don't wanna bring, you know, so far back, but when you think about everything that they've done along the way, they spend too much, then it cuts back.
我喜欢他的一点是，在投资方面，没有人比他更会控制节奏。
What I love about it is that he can throttle better than nobody when it comes to the investment.
不过当信任因素加上资本支出投入时，我就不太确定了。
I'm not sure about this when trust comes into play in addition to the capex spend.
接下来，我们来聊聊苹果最新的产品发布会，AI更新、新设备，以及CEO约翰·特尼斯首次亮相的表现。
Coming up biting into Apple's latest product event, the AI updates and new devices and how CEO John Turnis fared in his first showing.
详情和分析师反应，尽在《快钱》节目回归后。
The details and analyst reaction when Fast Money returns.
欢迎回到《快钱》，股市连续第三天下跌，收益率继续攀升。
Welcome back to Fast Money stocks lower for a third straight day as rates continue to climb.
道琼斯指数下跌400点。
The Dow falling 400 points.
标普500指数下跌0.5%。
S and P five hundred down half a percent.
纳斯达克指数下跌0.6%。
Nasdaq down six tenths of a percent.
纳斯达克100指数也小幅下跌。
And the Nasdaq one hundred also posting a small loss.
电信股也出现了沟通问题。
And a communication breakdown in telecom stocks.
康卡斯特下跌近7%。
Comcast falling nearly 7%.
特许通讯下跌8%，AT&T和T-Mobile也下跌，均下跌约2%。
Charter dropping 8% with AT and T and T Mobile lower as well, both down about 2%.
Adobe股价盘后小幅下跌。
Adobe shares slightly lower after hours.
据报道，OpenAI将不再接受ChatGPT广告，用于与其自身功能竞争的视频和音频产品。
OpenAI reportedly will no longer accept chat GPT advertising for image and audio products that compete with its own features.
这包括Adobe的产品。
That includes Adobe's.
Adobe将于明天盘后公布财报。
Adobe reports tomorrow after the bell.
苹果股价在其产品发布活动后收跌0.25%，这是约翰·特尼斯担任CEO以来的首次发布会。
Well, Apple shares, closing a quarter percent lower after its product launch event, the first with John Turnis, the CEO.
公司发布了新一代iPhone、AirPods和Apple Watch，但最受关注的设备可能是iPhone Duo，这是苹果首款折叠屏手机。
The company unveiling the next generation of iPhone, AirPods, and AirWatch, but perhaps the most closely watched device was the iPhone Duo, Apple's first foldable phone.
麦肯齐·西加洛斯在库比蒂诺带来详细报道。
Mackenzie Segalos is in Cupertino with all the details.
嘿，麦克。
Hey, Mac.
嘿，梅尔。
Hey, Mel.
iPhone Duo是今天大家最想上手体验的设备，我刚刚在苹果园区试了试。
So the iPhone Duo is the device that everyone wanted to get their hands on today, and I just tested it here at Apple Park.
起售价1999美元，但如果选配2TB存储，价格就接近3200美元，这创下了大众市场智能手机的新高。
It starts at $19.99, but max it out with two terabytes of storage, and you are at just shy of $3,200, a new high for a mass market smartphone.
这也体现了约翰·特尼斯作为CEO首次发布会上的更广泛策略：推动消费者向更高端市场迈进，同时让Duo成为苹果生态系统的补充，而不是替代其他iPhone。
And that gets at this broader strategy here from John Turnis at his first event as CEO, pushed consumers further up market while making the Duo additive to the Apple ecosystem, not a replacement for another iPhone.
今年秋天没有基础款iPhone 18，只有Pro和Pro Max。
There's no base iPhone 18 this fall, just the Pro and Pro Max.
iOS 27的Handoff功能让你的电话号码在iPhone之间跟随你，鼓励苹果现有用户同时拥有折叠屏和Pro机型。
And iOS 27 handoff lets your phone number follow you across iPhones, encouraging Apple's installed base to own both a foldable and a pro.
特纳斯还把iPhone定位为苹果的AI核心设备，Siri在整个生态系统中协同工作。
Turnus also positioned the iPhone as Apple's central AI device with Siri working across the ecosystem.
现在，最关键的例子可能是在手表上。
Now the most consequential example may actually be on the watch.
Siri的摘要和音频智能功能实际上让它变成了一个始终在听的AI设备，但今天展示的许多新Siri体验都是演示，目前我们还无法亲自测试。
Siri recap and audio intelligence effectively turn it into an always listening AI device, but much of the new Siri experience today was demoed, not something that we can test out ourselves at this point.
即使iOS 27在周一发布，Siri AI仍然需要排队等待。
And even when iOS 27 rolls out Monday, Siri AI will still be gated behind a wait list.
梅尔？
Mel?
我想，这算是对担忧的回应，就是担心这会蚕食未来的iPhone销量，因为你可以这样转移。没错。
I I guess, this was sort of an answer to the concern that this would be cannibalizing, right, future iPhone sales, the fact that you can sort of port Exactly.
信息能在不同设备间同步？
The information across devices?
没错。
Exactly.
而且，这也是我们迟迟没有推出触屏MacBook或折叠屏的原因之一。
And, I mean, this has been part of the reasoning behind why we've waited so long for a a touch screen MacBook or a foldable in and of itself.
你不想蚕食自己现有的产品线。
You don't wanna cannibalize your existing lines.
所以，当你这样定价时，苹果升级了几周前推出的新租赁计划，价格高到几乎必须选择这种模式。
And that's why, also, when you price it out like this, the Apple upgraded this new leasing program that they established a few weeks ago, you're almost at a a price point that is so high that you have to opt into this kind of system.
这样把用户推向高端市场就更容易接受了。
So forcing people's hands into this premium end of the spectrum is a lot more palatable.
把价格拆成每月付款，就能减轻标价带来的冲击。
You take the sting out of the sticker shock when you brace it down break it down rather into these monthly payments.
租赁系统当然鼓励你每年升级，这已经是苹果长期面临的问题了。
A leasing system, of course, encourages you to upgrade every year, and that's been the standing problem for Apple for a while now.
他们以前会有这种超级周期，然后又是好几年的低谷期，但如果转向租赁模式，就能避免这种情况。
The fact that they would have these super cycles and then these multiyear lulls, and if you move into a leasing model, then you you shy away from that.
然后关于你说的那个点，折叠屏是增量产品，而不是Pro和Pro Max的替代品，这一点非常关键。
And then in terms of your point about, the foldable being additive and not a replacement for a pro and a pro max, that is really key here.
他们想做的，是让Siri AI成为所有设备之间的连接纽带，而折叠屏只是新的酷炫卖点。
They are trying to make this, they want Siri AI to be the connective tissue across all of these devices, and the foldable would just be the new cool factor.
因为现在折叠屏在整个智能手机市场里只占2%的份额。
Because at this point, it's what, 2% of the overall smartphone market.
问题是，苹果能不能改变整个折叠屏市场的格局，包括三星这样的品牌。
There's a question as to whether Apple can change the calculus here for the broader, foldable scene, including for the names names like Samsung.
好的。
Alright.
Mac，谢谢你。
Mac, thank you.
Mackenzie Segalos。
Mackenzie Segalos.
关于这一切的更多内容，我们请来了Gene Munster，Deepwater资产管理公司的管理合伙人。
For more on all of this, let's bring in Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management.
Gene，很高兴见到你。
Gene, great to see you.
从你的笔记来看，我觉得你喜欢这款设备。
I take it from the notes that you you like this device.
我想知道，从产品组合的角度来看，它在苹果的产品线中填补了什么空白？
I'm wondering, from a product portfolio standpoint, what hole does this fill in the Apple lineup?
嗯，它填补的是人类发展方向上的空白，那就是对内容永无止境的需求。
Well, it whole it fills a hole about where humanity is going, which is this insatiable demand for content.
人们早上起床。
And people get up in the morning.
第一件事就是看它。
It's the first thing they look at.
他们每天触摸手机并查看超过一百次。
They touch their phone and look at it 100 plus times a day.
睡觉前看的最后一样东西也是它。
It's the last thing they look at before they go to bed.
我觉得这就是那个还没真正发展起来的市场，也就是折叠屏市场。
And I think that's the market, the foldable market that hasn't played out.
因为过去五年，三星和谷歌在折叠屏方面确实没有推出人们真正想要的设备，只占整个智能手机市场的2%。
Because the last five years, Samsung and Google really haven't had devices on the foldable side that people want, 2% of the overall smartphone market.
所以它不一定是在填补产品线里的某个空缺。
So it's not necessarily filling a hole in the product lineup.
这更多反映的是，我觉得，人类行为方式的一个不太好的现实。
It's really in terms of, I think, an unfortunate reality of how humanity is playing out.
而且我要说，在发布会之前，我的预期是——我知道折叠手机会来，大家都知道它要来。
And I would say going into the event that my expectations, this was not, I knew the foldable phone as everybody knew that it was coming.
但它并不在我认为的重大看点名单上，不过看完之后，我确信这对苹果来说今天真的是件大事。
It was not on my list of what I think the big takeaways are, but after seeing it, I'm convinced that this was a really big deal for Apple today.
至于填补产品空缺，实际上他们做的是推出了第一款人们真正想要的消费产品。
And as far as filling that product hole, effectively what they did is they launched the first product, consumer product, that people really want.
我的意思是，Vision Pro确实没有达到预期，基本上从2016年12月AirPods发布以来，就没有什么产品能真正打动人心。
I mean, Vision Pro really didn't hit the mark since basically the AirPods came out in December 2016.
所以最终这意味着，尽管这款设备不一定填补了产品线的空白，但我认为它可能会占iPhone收入的8%到12%，占总收入的5%。
And so what that means ultimately is this device is, even though it doesn't fill a hole necessarily in the product lineup, I think it's probably gonna account for percent of, probably eight to 12% of iPhone revenue, 5% of overall revenue.
这实际上会像AirPods一样，这真的很值得注意。
This is gonna be like the AirPods effectively, and that's really notable.
Gene，你觉得这会在什么时候实现？
Gene, when do you think that will be?
因为让我们简单算一下。
Because let's just do a little math.
你提到了Vision Pro。
You talked about VisionPRO.
他们卖了，大概四五十万台，用了几年时间，你算算看。
They sold, what, 400,500 of them over a couple years, and you do the math on that.
这款产品，我觉得很多人其实都试过。
It was a product that generally, I think a lot of people tried.
他们基本上就把它放弃了。
They just kind of got rid of it.
没真正做成那件事。
Didn't really do that thing.
我知道你特别关注物理AI和空间计算这类东西。
And I know you're big into, you know, physical AI and spatial computing, that sort of thing.
我看这个的时候就在想，好吧，如果他们明年能卖出一百万台，假设平均售价是2500美元，那就是225亿美元。
I look at this and I say to myself, Okay, if they were to sell a million of these over the next year, let's say an average price point of $2,500, we're we're talking about $22,500,000,000.
这个数字对他们来说就是个零头。
It's like a rounding error on that number.
所以作为投资者来看，信号确实看起来很漂亮。
So when you think about it as an investor, yes, the signaling of it looks amazing.
看起来是个很棒的产品。
It looks like a great device.
但很长一段时间内，我对这东西一点兴趣都没有。
I just would not have any interest in this thing for a very long time.
它太大了。
It's too big.
你知道，就是，随便吧。
You know, it it just whatever.
而且我觉得我们回头看的时候，事情就会是这样发展的，Gene。
And and I think we'll look back, and and and I think this will be the way it plays out, Gene.
但我是说从财务影响来看，作为一个看股票的人，这种东西会让你兴奋到去买股票吗？
But I'm just saying from a financial impact, like as a someone who's looking at the stock, would this be the sort of thing that would get you excited to go out and buy the stock?
我觉得会。
I think it would.
而且，Dan，我喜欢我们这些年来的你来我往，我提议，为了好玩，一年后我们再回来聊这个话题。
And, Dan, I love our our back and forth over the years, and I I would I would propose here that to kind of revisit this conversation for fun a year from now.
我觉得他们第一年能卖出超过两千万台。
I think that they'll do 20 plus million of these in the first year.
这个数字我是怎么得来的呢？你看，他们首先会蚕食的是iPhone Pro Max的市场。
And where I get that math from is that if you look at, I mean, really what they're gonna first take from is the iPhone Pro Max based.
Pro Max大概占了iPhone总收入的30%。
That's about 30% of total iPhone revenue comes from Pro Max.
如果他们能拿下其中三分之一，光是平均售价的提升就能达到54%。
If they take a third of those, just the ASP bump is 54%.
所以即使完全蚕食掉其他型号，整个iPhone业务也能提升5%。
So if it fully cannibalizes, you still get a 5% lift on the iPhone business overall.
这还没算上Pro或其他型号带来的升级。
So just to put some context, that excludes any sort of other upgrades coming from Pro or any of the other models.
所以我的感觉是，最大的负面因素是我还没真正上手用过，但听别人说，它挺重的。
And so my sense is that, I mean, big negative here, I haven't actually held one, but from what I hear and talking to people who have is it's heavy.
这是个缺点。
That is a negative.
但我觉得体验会很棒。
But I think the experience is gonna be remarkable.
再说一次，我和你的看法一致，Dan。
Again, I went in on the same page you were, Dan.
我之前以为这只会是个小打小闹的东西，挺酷的科技，但最后还是得承认，这确实是大家想要的。
I thought that this was gonna be a rounding error, that it's nice, cool tech, but I just come back to, unfortunately, this is what people want.
他们想要一个能让他们全身心投入的设备，而且它真的很酷。
They want a device that they can just plow all their attention into, and it's really cool.
打开它的那个动画效果，简直太惊艳了。
The animation, when you open it up, is just spectacular.
所以我觉得，这真的会在接下来一周推动股价上涨。
So I'm in the camp that this actually is gonna move the stock higher over the next week.
好的。
Alright.
Jean，跟你聊天总是很愉快。
Jean, always great to speak with you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Thank you.
吉恩·蒙斯特，来自深水资产管理公司。
Jean Munster, Deepwater Asset Management.
好吧，一年后我们就会知道，它是否真的填补了人类对内容渴望的那个空缺，这倒是一种有趣的看待设备的方式。
Well, we will see in a year, you know, if it does fill that hole of humanity desiring content, which is an interesting way of thinking about a device.
但是，你知道，我之前没想过这个问题，直到吉恩提到我们消费内容的方式。
But, you know, I hadn't thought about it until when when Gene actually said that in terms of how we consume.
如果我们有一个单屏设备。
And if we have it's a single screen.
那个手机基本上是双屏，可以同时消费内容，或者用更大的屏幕来玩游戏、看文档之类的。
That phone is a double screen basically to consume content at the same time, or a larger screen to game or look at a document or whatever.
这，我是说，我有点喜欢上它了，就在那种……
It's I mean, it kinda grew on me in in just that sort of
吉恩进去之前说他有点怀疑，但出来之后他说，你知道吗？
Gene said going in that he was a bit of a skeptic, and then he came out saying, you know what?
他现在信了。
He's a believer now.
他今天早些时候在推特上还指出，看起来他们打算把升级周期分开，这听起来好像还是1加1等于2，但他说的分开升级周期的意思是，其实不是这样。
He also pointed out in a tweet earlier today that it looks like they're going to split the upgrade cycle, which sounds like, well, it's still one plus one equals two, but his point in splitting the upgrade cycle, it's not.
实际上，1加1可能等于3。
It's actually one plus one could equal three.
所以那里也有一些顺风因素。
So there's some tailwinds there as well.
听着，吉恩是这方面最值得请教的人。
Listen, Gene is the guy to go to here.
你知道，他之前有过乐观，也有过悲观，但现在他看起来挺兴奋的。
You know, he's been positive, negative, but right now he seems to be sort of geeked up.
估值是个担忧，但话说回来，这已经担忧一阵子了，米尔姆斯。
The valuation is a concern, but again, it's been a concern for a while, Milms.
苹果的图表。
The Apple chart.
嗯，我是说，现在的图表还算不错。
Well, I mean, the Here Now chart is is decent.
对吧？
Right?
虽然不算特别亮眼，但确实是个上升趋势。
It's an uptrend, albeit not a particularly exciting one.
我觉得最大的问题在于，苹果相对其他可选投资标的的表现。
I guess the the big issue is Apple's relative performance to other choices one could have made.
对吧？
Right?
而且我们知道，苹果的相对强弱线，也就是相对表现曲线，正好在四年前见顶。
And we know that Apple's relative strength line or relative performance chart peaked exactly four years ago.
那是在2022年9月的第三周。
It was in the third week of September of twenty twenty two.
四年过去了，它依然是真正的落后者。
Four years later, it remains a real laggard.
什么能改变这个局面呢？
What's gonna change that?
我不知道。
I don't know.
接下来，AI会不会让我们全都完蛋？
Coming up, could AI kill us all?
一位顶级AI研究员的严厉警告，以及他为什么说这项技术有可能终结人类。
The stark warning for one top AI researcher and why he says there is a chance that the tech could end humanity.
《快钱》回归时，乐观情绪更多了。
Much more optimism when fast money returns.
欢迎回到《快钱》，今天有一系列关于AI潜在风险的帖子引起了热议。
Welcome back to Fast Money, a series of posts about potential risks in AI making waves today.
研究员雅各布·考克森从Anthropic辞职，指责该公司和OpenAI为了追求超级智能而牺牲人类安全。
Researcher Jacob Coxen resigning from Anthropic, accusing it and OpenAI of racing towards superintelligence at the expense of human safety.
Anthropic的一位安全负责人也附和了这一警告，称如果不纠正方向，未来十年内人类灭绝的概率超过10%。
One of Anthropic safety leads echoing that warning, putting the odds of a human extinction extinction in the next decade above 10% without a course correction.
早些时候在《收盘钟声加班》节目中，我们采访了网络安全公司CrowdStrike的首席执行官乔治·库尔茨，讨论了AI安全风险。
Earlier in closing bell overtime, we talked to George Kurtz, CEO of cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike about AI safety risks.
以下是他所说的内容。
Here's what he had to say.
现在，新的顶级捕食者是智能体状态。
Now the new apex predator is the agent state.
对吧？
Right?
而且它们不在你的边界。
And they're not at at your perimeter.
它们在你的工资单上。
They're on your payroll.
所以，我们实际上要思考这个问题。
So we're actually think about this.
美国企业界，每个人都让它们进入自己的环境，之后发生的事情，他们很难控制。
Corporate America, everyone is letting them into their own environment, and what happens afterwards, they're having a hard time controlling it.
所以我认为，从如何应对这个问题的角度来看，你必须拥有适当水平的AI，并专注于安全活动。
So I think from the standpoint of how you get in front of this is you have to have the right level of AI and focused on security activities.
有意思的是，我们作为社会，正在把人工智能请进家里、请进生活、请进企业，但我们其实并不清楚，我们的防御措施到底能不能保护我们，免受那些能力极强、还在不断自我提升的智能体的威胁。
It is interesting that we are, you know, as a society inviting AI into our homes, into our lives, into our businesses, and yet we don't really know how well our defenses can actually protect us from what those agents that are so capable and improving themselves constantly can actually do.
对。
Yeah.
嗯，想想历史吧，比如肯尼迪时期古巴导弹危机，核战争的概率可能超过10%。
Well, think if you go back in history, right, nuclear war during JFK and the Cuban Missile Crisis was probably more than 10% chance of a nuclear war.
所以我觉得我们一直在和人类自身作斗争，就像下一个会毁灭我们的是什么？
So I think we're always battling with humanity, like what's the next thing that's gonna take us out?
冰河时代、核战争、人工智能，我觉得这些威胁一直都在。
The ice age, nuclear war, AI, I think it's always gonna be there.
我相信有这种可能性吗？
And do I believe there's a chance?
我觉得在人类灭绝之前，还得跨越很多道安全防线。
I would think a lot of safeguards have to be hurdled before we get to human extinction.
我觉得那可能会很棘手。
I think it could be cumbersome.
我觉得我们可能会遇到很多不利因素，但我还不相信会有10%的人类灭绝风险。
I think we could see a lot of negative headwinds, but I'm not buying the 10% human extinction yet.
我们先把话题收一收，不说完全灭绝，但可能对工厂造成物理伤害，对人类造成身体伤害。
Let's dial that back and and say it's not extinction entirely, but maybe physical harm to a factory, physical harm to human beings.
我不知道为什么。
I don't know why.
比如说，
Like know,
体育、头发之类的事情。
sports and hair and things.
你知道，可能性不小。
You know, decent chance.
也许不是灭绝。
Maybe not extinction.
这些都很难说，也很难预测。
All very speculative and hard to make by.
当然。
Sure.
有人提到的一点是，大家都急着抢第一。
One of the points that was being made is everybody rushing to be first.
在抢第一的过程中，你往往会忽略一些潜在的陷阱，而我认为，脆弱性恰恰就在这里。
In the rush to be first, you sort of look past some of the potential pitfalls, and therein lies the vulnerability, I think.
所以，我不知道
So, don't I know
你怎么看待10%的灭绝概率，但我要告诉你的是，所有这些安全类股票，比如Zscaler、Palo Alto，它们波动很大，但在这种环境下，这些是你必须持有的股票。
how you trade 10% extinction, but what I'll tell you is all these security names, these cybersecurity names, Zscaler, Palo Alto, they're volatile, but those are the names you have to own in this environment.
我认为这项技术会先变得更糟，然后才会好转，而且我觉得你说得对，关键是要弄清楚漏洞在哪里，对吧？
I think it gets worse before it gets better with this technology, and I think to your point, there's figuring out what the vulnerabilities are, right?
我们就有OpenAI和Hugging Face的例子。
We have that example just with OpenAI and Hugging Face.
还有一个是Anthropic的。
There was another one with Anthropic.
听到这些安全专家的话真是太好了。
It's great to hear these security guys.
他们显然在这件事上有很大的利益关系，你知道，他们就像防火墙一样，这里双关一下。
They obviously have a huge vested interest in kind of you know, being a bit of a firewall, pun intended there, for all this sort of stuff.
但肯定会有一些灾难发生。
But there's gonna be some some disasters.
你知道，会有人因此丧命。
You know, people are gonna die.
我的意思是，就是这么简单。
I mean, it's just that simple.
而且我们已经开始看到这种情况了。
And we're already starting to see that.
现在有很多针对这些公司的重大诉讼，你知道，比如Anthropic，还有可能OpenAI。
There's massive lawsuits against these, you know, anthropic and well, maybe open AI.
不太清楚Anthropic那边的情况，你知道，关于自杀之类的这些事情。
Don't know about anthropic about, you know, suicides and all this sort of stuff.
所以很明显，情况在好转之前会先变得更糟。
So it clearly gets worse before it gets better.
但与此同时，也有一些有趣的事情在发生。
But in the meantime, there's some fun stuff going on.
这是一项技术。
It's a technology.
接下来，甲骨文即将公布业绩，这家软件公司的股票在业绩公布后能否延续夏末的涨势，以及交易员对数据的预期。
Coming up, Oracle results on deck and the software stock keep its late summer momentum going after its results and what the traders expect from the numbers.
稍后继续《快钱》节目。
More Fast Money in two.
欢迎回到《快钱》节目。
Welcome back to Fast Money.
甲骨文股价今天小幅下跌，这家软件公司明天盘后将公布第一财季业绩。
Oracle shares just in the red today as the software company gears up for fiscal q one earnings after the bell tomorrow.
这当然是对人工智能交易的一次关键考验。
That's a key test, of course, for the AI AI trade.
就在一年前，这份财报发布后，股价创下了历史新高。
The stock hitting a record after this earnings report exactly one year ago.
市值一度突破一万亿美元。
Its market cap briefly topping a trillion dollars.
但自那以后，股价已经腰斩。
Shares have been cut in half since then.
过去几周，他们一直在努力回升。
They've been trying to mount to come back over the last few weeks.
那么，格拉索，我们预期会怎样呢？
So what do we expect here, Grasso?
对。
Yeah.
如果你看看图表，卡特也在这里，我相信他会发表意见的。
So if you look at the chart and Carter's here, so I'm sure he'll weigh in on this.
今年迄今已经下跌了17%。
It's down 17% year to date.
那你觉得这只股票要怎么做才能重新获得市场的青睐呢？
And when you think about the stock, what do they have to do to force a rerating of this stock?
所以必须得有一些自由现金流的拐点。
So there's got to be some sort of a free cash flow inflection.
云业务也得有增长。
There's gotta be cloud growth.
云业务增长一直很不错。
Cloud growth has been great.
他们得继续保持云业务的增长，实现自由现金流的拐点，然后可能还要签一些大的AI合同。
They've gotta continue with their cloud growth, inflection on free cash flow, and then maybe some pillar AI contracts.
但你不能说最坏的消息还没被市场消化掉。
But you can't tell me that the worst news isn't already priced into the stock.
我觉得现在上涨的空间比下跌的风险更大。
I think upside is at risk now versus downside.
你怎么看？
What's your take?
是的，我的意思是，从3.50美元跌到1.15美元，我觉得那些低点是不错的，那些低点出现在三四个月前，是早期从看跌转为看涨的反转买入点。
Yeah, I mean, $3.50 to $1.15, and I think those are good lows, those lows back three, four months ago, early stage bearish to bullish reversal buy.
隐含波动幅度是12%。
12% implied move.
想想过去12次中的10次，你看到过8.5%或更大的波动。
Think 10 in the last 12, you've seen moves of eight and a half percent or more.
所以，各位体育迷们，敬请期待。
So stay tuned sports fans.
接下来，是最后的交易。
Up next, final trades.
最后的交易时间，史蒂文。
Final trade time, Steven.
甲骨文，我认为大部分风险已经释放了。
Oracle, I think the risk has been taken out the majority of the stock.
卡特·布拉克斯顿·沃斯。
Carter Braxton Worth.
通用汽车是众多表现很差的非必需消费品股票之一。
General Motors among so many very poor consumer discretionary stocks.
我们看好这只股票。
We like this one.
丹·内森。
Dan Nathan.
对。
Yeah.
Meta，我同意卡特的看法。
Meta, I'm with Carter.
我觉得这只股票可以放手了。
I think you let this one go.
我觉得有很多
I think there's a lot of
好消息已经反映在股价里了。
good news in stock.
哥们儿。
Guy.
我不想让大家知道，梅尔刚才说她今晚会锁定这场爱国者队对阵西雅图海鹰队的比赛，只是为了让你们明白，她一直都是出于对体育的热爱。
I didn't want folks to know that Mel was just saying she would be locked into this Patriot game this evening against the Seattle Seahawks just so you folks understand always for love of sports.
南方铜业，梅丽莎。
Southern Copper Melissa.
感谢收看《快钱》。
Thank you for watching Fast Money.
《疯狂金钱》节目，吉姆·克莱默现在开始。
Mad Money with Jim Kramer starts right now.
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这些观点基于《快钱》参与者认为可靠的信息，但CNBC及其关联公司或子公司不保证其完整性或准确性，也不应依赖这些观点。
Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
要查看完整的《快钱》免责声明，请访问cnbc.com/fastmoney免责声明。
To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/fastmoney disclaimer.
NFL开赛时间到了。
It's NFL kickoff time.
独家NFL球队估值，由体育商业专家迈克尔·奥泽尼亚带来。
Exclusive NFL team valuations with sports business expert Michael Ozenia.
NFL是迄今为止最赚钱的联赛。
The NFL is by far the most profitable league.
NFL球队估值现在在cnbc.com/sport上。
NFL team valuations now on cnbc.com/sport.
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