林·奥尔登：渐进式印钞 vs. 大规模印钞，缺失的零售浪潮，以及比特币的下一个催化剂

我们将举办一场特别的晚间派对，庆祝比特币女性五周年，我将在比特币集市上为《比特币属于每个人》签售。

We'll be celebrating five years of women of Bitcoin with a special evening bash, and I'll be signing copies of Bitcoin is for everyone at the Bitcoin Bazaar.

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Use code HODL for discounted passes, and I will see you this April.

最后，比特币IRA。

Finally, Bitcoin IRA.

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With Bitcoin IRA, you can invest in Bitcoin $24.07 inside a tax advantaged IRA.

你可以选择传统IRA来延迟缴税，或选择罗斯IRA，在退休时享受免税提款。

Choose a traditional IRA to defer taxes or a Roth IRA for tax free withdrawals when you retire.

用比特币IRA掌握你的未来。

Take control of your future with Bitcoin IRA.

前往 bitcoinira.com/natalie，领取最高1000美元的充值奖励。

Head to bitcoinira.com/natalie for up to a $1,000 funding bonus.

让我们聊聊为什么这列火车无人能挡，因为显然他们需要印钞来融资这些赤字。

So let's talk a little bit about the nothing stops this train because I think that obviously they're gonna need a print in order to finance these deficits.

如果我们想要安抚市场，他们会尽可能地让经济过热。

And if we're going to try to reassure, they're gonna run the economy as hot as we can.

他们正试图专注于增长方面。

They're trying to focus on the growth side.

但这么多比特币爱好者都在等待一次大规模的印钞或核弹级印钞。

But so many Bitcoiners are waiting for a big print or a nuclear print.

正如你所写的，你更期待一种渐进式的印钞，而即将离任的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也曾暗示，我们会逐步扩大资产负债表。

And as you write, you're more expecting a gradual print, which Fed chair Jerome Powell, who's on his way out, he kind of alluded to we're gonna slowly expand the balance sheet.

最初可能会从大约400亿美元的短期国债购买开始。

It's gonna initially start at, what, $40,000,000,000 worth of purchases, short end treasury bills.

我的意思是，这听起来并不算什么惊天动地的举动。

I mean, that doesn't sound like anything mind blowing.

我认为你曾说过，一次大规模印钞必须是至少两万亿美元以上的资产负债表扩张。

I think you said that a big print would have to be 2 plus trillion dollars or more of expanding the balance sheet.

那么，为什么你认为应该是渐进式的呢？

So why gradual for you?

主要是因为目前的条件并不需要在近期内进行大规模印钞。

Mainly because the conditions are not such that they would need a big print in the near future.

我的意思是，除非发生一些意外情况，比如我那篇文章中提到的，如果爆发更严重的战争，或者出现更多金融战，确实存在可能导致大规模印钞或核弹级印钞的情景。

I mean, unless something unexpected happens, like I mentioned in in that piece, if if a a worse type of war breaks out or if there's more kind of financial war going on, there are scenarios that can absolutely result in a in a big print or a nuclear print.

但当真正巨大的数字出现时，比如量化宽松发生时，银行的杠杆率极高。

But when the when the really big numbers happen, like the QE one happened at a time where banks were extremely levered.

它们的现金相对于总资产或存款基础来说非常少。

They had very little cash relative to either their total assets or relative to their deposit base.

那正是私人部门长期债务周期的顶峰。

That was kind of peak long term debt cycle in the private sector.

因此，你从一个极低的基数开始，逐步提升到相当高的现金比率。

And so you start from a tiny base, and you go up to pretty big high cash ratios.

现在，银行的现金比率仍然相当高，只要没有类似新冠疫情那样规模的经济冲击——当然，这种事随时可能发生，但并非我的基准预期——我就不会认为会出现如此规模的印钞。

Now, I mean, bank cash ratios are still pretty high, and as long as you don't have something like COVID scale disruption to the economy, which, you know, can always happen, but it's not my base case, then I wouldn't really see printing of that magnitude happening.

如果你放眼足够远的未来，任何事情都可能发生，但当你以一到两年作为分析的起点时，会想：在这段时间内会发生什么？

Now you look out far enough, anything can happen, but when you have, like, say, a one to two year starting point for analysis and say, well, what's gonna happen in that time frame?

他们已经基本触及了可以从系统中抽走多少现金的底线。

They've kinda hit the rough floor for how how much cash they can take out of the system.

如果新任主席像杰罗姆·鲍威尔那样试图缩减资产负债表，他们确实还有一些手段可用，但我认为这些手段会受到限制。

There are some levers they can pull if, like, for example, the new chairman does try to get the balance sheet down unlike Jerome Powell, but I think they'll they'll be limited in that.

现在，当你计算一下即将到期的债务规模、货币供应增长情况以及银行的杠杆或非杠杆水平时，就会发现他们其实并不需要大量印钞。

And just right now, when you when you kind of run the numbers of how much debt is coming out, how much money supply is growing, how levered or unlevered banks are, they just don't really need a lot of printing.

少量印钞就能让他们走得很远。

A little printing gets them a long way.

美联储可以购买少量债券，同时随着银行体系的扩张，他们还可以通过部分准备金制度购买债券。

The Fed can buy a little bit of the bonds, and then also as that expands the size of the banking system, they can also buy bonds on fractional reserves.

所以我认为，在相当长一段时间内，这个系统都将在不需要大规模印钞的状态下运行。

So I think that the system is gonna go on for quite a while in a state that doesn't need massive, massive printing.

所以你认为那些预测这种情形的分析师只是错了，还是他们的分析时间框架不同？

So do you think that the analysts that are calling for this are just wrong or maybe on a different time horizon?

毕竟，最终总会有什么地方崩溃，最终我们还是会需要大规模印钞，因为过去十多年里，我们总会在某个时刻重新回到量化宽松。

Like, eventually, something will break, and eventually, we will just need a big print because it seems like over the past decade or so, at some point, we just we go back to QE.

我的意思是，这取决于分析师。

I mean, it would depend on the analyst.

我的意思是，有时他们会给出时间框架，我们可以看看是否达到了那个时间点。

I mean, sometimes they give their time frame, so we can just see if it if you hit that time frame or not.

是的。

Yeah.

这取决于我们谈论的是谁，但我认为，确实有一些人对金融系统的运作并不太了解。

It would depend on on who we're talking about, but I think, basically, there are those who just don't follow the financial plumbing very closely.

所以每当股市出现一点下跌，他们就会说，哦，我们很快就得印钱了。

So every kind of downtick in stocks or every kind of downtick, they they say, well, the you know, we're gonna have to print soon.

但实际上，美联储主要关心的是国债市场和银行间借贷市场的流动性。

But, really, the the Fed only cares mainly about the the liquidity of the treasury market and the interbank lending market.

嗯。

Mhmm.

即使股市下跌百分之十、二十甚至三十，也不太可能成为美联储或其他央行开始印钞的触发因素。

Even stocks going down ten, twenty, 30% is not really gonna be a catalyst for the the Fed to to print or other central banks to print.

现在，显而易见，如果你是总统并且发生了这种情况，你可能会希望他们印钞，但只要失业率没有上升，我认为他们短期内不会进行大规模量化宽松。

Now, obviously, you know, if you're the president and that happens, you might want them to print, but as, you know, as long as basically unemployment's not ticking up, I don't think they're gonna be doing massive QE anytime soon.

即使他们真的因为人工智能导致失业率上升，

And then even if they do get you know, if if unemployment goes up because of AI Mhmm.

美联储在应对这种情况时手段非常有限。

Fed tools are very limited at dealing with that.

但如果国会决定通过五千亿美元的AI刺激计划呢？

Now if Congress decides to pass some $5,000,000,000,000, you know, AI Stimulus?

比如，基本上就是相当于全民基本收入。

Like, yeah, basically UBI equivalent.

比如，机器人抢了你的工作。

Like, oh, robots take your jobs.

那该怎么办呢？

Well, here's you know?

是的。

Yeah.

那当然。

Then sure.

但这必须经过国会批准。

But that has to go through Congress.

这会引发非常两极化的环境。

That'd be a very polarized environment.

所以像这样的事情不在我的一到两年时间框架内。

So it's not on my one to two year time frame, something like that.

我们显然可能看到5000亿美元左右的刺激措施之类的。

We could obviously see a half $1,000,000,000,000 stimulus or something like that.

但再说一遍，这些数字与真正能影响资产负债表的规模相比并不算大。

But, again, these these are not giant numbers compared to what really moves the needle in terms of of balance sheet.

仅美国的股票市场就有数万亿美元。

The the stock market in The US alone is tens of trillions of dollars.

因此，到目前为止，要从宏观层面产生重大影响，需要相当大的数字。

So it takes pretty big numbers to really impact things from a macro scale at this point.

是的

Yeah.

你提到一些令人震惊的数据。

You had some shocking statistics.

我知道我以前读过这些数据，但每次看到都让我觉得，股市规模已经是GDP的两倍。

I know I've read them before, but every time I do, it's like stock market's 200% of GDP.

90%的股票由社会前10%的人持有，而这前10%的人贡献了近50%的消费支出。

90% of stocks are held by top the 10 the top 10% of society, and the top 10% does nearly 50% of consumer spending.

我的意思是，我们的经济结构实在太头重脚轻了，其他人感觉都在苦苦挣扎。

I mean, we're just so, like, top heavy in terms of everyone else feels like they're struggling.

难怪这些问题会渗透到社会层面的种种矛盾中。

And so no wonder it it trickles into these societal issues.

我认为我们正经历更多的社会动荡，人们越来越沮丧，再加上对人工智能的担忧，难怪我们像一个火药桶。

I think we have more civil unrest and people just growing so frustrated, and then you compound it with AI fears, and no wonder we're like a powder keg.

你也是这么看的吗？

Do you see it that way?

我同意。

I do.

我的意思是，当出现财政主导时，政治极化会加剧，而这种极化反过来又会让情况变得更糟。

I mean, that's I mean, political polarization grows when you have fiscal dominance, and then polarization can actually make it worse.

这些因素相互助长，很难预测最终会走向何方。

And these things feed on each other, and it's hard to know where it ends up.

你知道，在发达国家，我们要回溯到上世纪四十年代，才能找到上一次真正处于财政主导的时期，而那时的环境与现在截然不同。

You know, we we do in developed countries, we have to go back to the forties to find the last time we were really in fiscal dominance, and it was a very different time back then.

所以，我的确认为，不幸的是，社会动荡可能会持续下去，甚至延续到2030年代。

So I I do think that, yeah, I think that societal unrest is probably gonna continue, unfortunately, for I mean, into the 2030s.

我的意思是，顶层人口结构失衡、对人工智能的担忧、人工智能带来的机遇，再加上激烈的竞争，以及一个倾向于奖励资产所有者、而非依赖现金收入的金融体系。

I mean, the combination of top heavy demographics, AI fears, AI opportunities, but also fierce, and then this, you know, a financial system that has kind of it's geared toward rewarding those who own assets short fiat currency Mhmm.

而这些人拥有足够长的时间和空间，让这种趋势持续数年甚至数十年。

And have, like, the the runway to kinda let that play out for for years and decades.

而对于那些主要靠劳动收入、资产不多的人来说，这显然非常艰难。

And it's it's obviously been hard for anyone who mostly makes their money with time, and they're not very asset heavy.

而且，你知道，我们甚至看到一些最近的演讲中，他们甚至不一定要降低房价。

And, you know, we've even seen just some recent speeches where it's like they don't even wanna necessarily get house prices down.

是的。

Yeah.

他们更倾向于优化那些拥有房产的年长富裕阶层，而不是让年轻人和新家庭更容易获得房产。

It's like they'd rather optimize for kind of the the the older wealthier class that has them rather than making them available for for, you know, younger people, new families.

就像你所说的，这就像一个火药桶。

It's a powder cake, like you said.

你写道，股息处于历史低位。

You wrote that dividends are at a record low.

为什么会这样？

Why is that?

股息收益率处于历史低位。

Dividend yields are at a record low.

有两个原因。

Two reasons.

第一，估值普遍偏高。

One, just valuations are pretty high.

所以，即使一家公司支付了相当高比例的现金股息，但如果其股价是盈利的50倍，股息率也会很低。

So, you know, even even if a company's paying out a pretty high percentage of its cash dividends I mean, if if their stock's trading at, like, 50 times earnings, it's gonna have a low dividend yield.

其次，股票回购很流行。

And then two, buybacks are popular.

如果你回溯足够久的数据，会发现以前更注重股息，而回购则少得多。

So if you if you go far enough back in the data, it was way more dividend focused and way less buyback focused.

现在，股票回购已成为一个相当重要的组成部分。

Now buybacks are a pretty significant component.

因此，我们目前的股息率低点几乎和互联网泡沫时期一样低。

So we're roughly on par, like, the the the bottom in dividend yield of all times, like the .com bubble.

是的。

Mhmm.

我们现在的标普500平均股息率又回到了略高于1%的水平。

And we're kind of back down to that, like, a little over 1% average dividend yield for the S and P 500.

太疯狂了。

So crazy.

而过去，确实曾有几十年平均达到4%。

Whereas, yeah, in the past, I mean, there were decades where it averaged 4%.

显然，过去有些时候股价很低，股息收益率能达到7%左右，而现在却降到了1%。

Obviously, there were some really cheap times where you can get, like, a 7% average dividend yield, and right now it's down to to one.

而且当你做股票和黄金的对比时，大多数图表都忽略了股息。

And that's also you know, when you when you do that stock versus gold comparison, most of those charts leave out dividends Mhmm.

这意味着在非常长的时间跨度里，尽管看起来像一条正弦波，但实际上股票在五十年甚至一百年的时间内彻底碾压了黄金。

Which means over a very, very long period of time, even though it look might look like a sine wave, it's actually stocks just completely crushing gold over, you know, fifty, hundred year period.

但在当前这种熊市中，尽管有股息，由于股息率太低，股票相对于黄金确实已经持续相当长时间处于熊市状态。

But in this current kind of bear market as stocks shrub to gold, even with the dividend, because the dividend's so low, It really has been a bear market in stocks versus gold for for quite a while.

是的。

Yeah.

太疯狂了。

It's crazy.

即使算上那些股息，黄金的表现仍然优于标普指数。

Gold has been outperforming S and P even with those dividends.

那么，这种逐步的印钞对比特币意味着什么？

So what does the gradual print mean for Bitcoin?

我觉得影响不大。

Not a ton, I think.

我的意思是，从其他条件不变的角度看，这算是有利的，但比特币仍需凭借自身优势来吸引投资者的关注。

I mean, it's it's supportive, all else being equal, but Bitcoin still has to compete on its own merits for investor attention.

所以，基本上，它需要与英伟达竞争。

So, you know, basically, it has to compete with Nvidia.

它需要与其他人工智能股票竞争。

It has to compete with other AI stocks.

它需要与市场上所有可供人们投资的资产竞争。

It has to compete with everything out there that people can own.

当然，比特币的优势在于你可以自行保管它。

And, of course, the advantage Bitcoin has is that you can self custody it.

你不能自己保管你的英伟达股票。

You can't self custody your stock your NVIDIA stock.

是的。

Mhmm.

但问题是，有多少人想要自己保管呢？

But then the question is how many people wanna self custody?

有多少人想要，你知道的，可自主保管的硬通货？

How many people want, you know, self custodial hard money?

历史上，这是黄金爱好者。

Historically, it was the gold bugs.

现在是黄金爱好者和比特币 maximalists。

Now it's the it's gold bugs and and Bitcoin Maxis.

是的。

Mhmm.

问题是，这个市场有多大？这个过程会发生在什么时间框架内？

And the question is how big is that market and what timeline does that happen on?

我持乐观态度，但不会把逐步印钞视为一个直接的催化剂。

I'm optimistic, but I wouldn't really point toward the gradual print as a catalyst per se.

我认为，从资产负债表收缩转向资产负债表扩张，对许多资产（包括比特币）来说是相关的。

I do think that the the shift from balance sheet contraction to balance sheet expansion is relevant for many assets, including Bitcoin.

但当你面临的是像逐步印钞这样的情况时，资产自身的特性比宏观背景重要得多。

But when you have only a gradual print scenario, like, asset specific things matter way more than the macro backdrop.

如果你遇到像2020年春季那样疯狂的刺激措施，那么微观层面几乎完全不重要了。

If you have, like, a, you know, spring twenty twenty scenario where just this crazy stimulus is happening, then almost at the micro, it doesn't matter at all.

那时一切都由宏观因素决定。

It's it's all macro at that point.

只是极度的刺激措施。

Just hyper stimulus.

基本上，所有资产都会上涨。

Everything goes up, basically.

而如果你面对的是较为平淡的宏观背景，那么每个资产的具体情况就至关重要。

Whereas if you have a more of a kind of a lackluster macro backdrop, then asset by asset really matters.

所有这些微观因素都很重要。

All that micro matters.

你认为资本会从哪里流入，从而推动比特币上涨？你正在关注哪些信号来判断比特币的底部是否已经形成？

Where do you think capital is going to come from in order to maybe push Bitcoin to the upside, and and what markers are you looking for for maybe a Bitcoin bottom to be in?

我认为最初是那些坚定的持有者奠定了底部，也就是说，快钱离场，代币从短期交易者手中转移到了真正不愿卖出的长期持有者手中，除非价格上涨五倍甚至更多，这类买家才会考虑出手。

I think initially, kind of like the the diamond hands put the floor in, which is to say that the fast money gets out, the coins rotate from fast money hands to strongly held hands that are really not gonna wanna part with it unless it goes up, like, 5x or more, basically, that that kind of buyer.

然后，最终供应量会逐渐收紧。

And then eventually, it just it tightens supply.

之后，只需要少量新增需求进入市场即可。

And then it only takes a marginal amount of new demand to come in.

例如，AI股票最终可能会见顶。

It could be, for example, that the AI stocks eventually just peak.

它们涨得太过离谱，实际上很难再有显著上涨空间。

They get so silly big that they can't really get realistically much higher.

而比特币此时相对便宜，并且主要掌握在坚定的长期持有者手中。

And then Bitcoin's cheap for a while, and it it's in strongly held hands.

人们开始注意到，嘿，它又涨了，而且持仓分散，没人谈论它。

And people start to notice that, hey, it's it's going up again, and it's under owned, and no one's talking about it.

然后，牛市自然会在这个阶段之后推动叙事，就像我们在贵金属中看到的那样，一旦开始上涨，嗯。

And then, of course, bull markets kind of feed the narrative after after that point, kinda like we saw in precious metals where once it starts running Mhmm.

然后人们就纷纷加入。

Then people hop on.

我认为财政部公司的买入热潮还远未结束，也就是说，显然我们不会再看到像2025年那样的MNAS水平，但我认为未来几年仍会有一些公司继续买入，比如Strategy和其他公司。

I don't I don't think we've seen the end fully of the treasury company buying spree, which is to say that, you know, obviously, think some of the MNAS we're not gonna see at the level that we saw in 2025, but I think some of them will be still buying in the years ahead, like strategy and others.

当市场确实进入上升环境时，人们会环顾四周，想：我该如何利用这一趋势，嗯？

And then when you do have that rising environment, people look around and say, well, where how can I lever that Mhmm?

以最安全的方式？

In the in the least risky way?

他们可能会关注一些财政部公司，并推高它们的价格。

And they might look at some of the treasury companies and bid those up.

如果它们的MNAV为正，他们就可以买入。

And if they get a positive MNAV, they can buy.

所以我认为这是未来牛市的一部分。

So I think that that's kind of part of the the bull markets going forward.

但你是否认为还存在更多的下行风险，我们尚未确认底部？

But you do think that there's more downside risk that we haven't put in a bottom necessarily?

我的意思是，从去年12月和今年1月开始，我基于的假设是11月的低点可能就是底部。

I mean, I started back in in December and January, I was working with the assumption that November bottom, you know, might be the bottom.

那原本是我的基准预期，但我们已经否定了这个假设。

That was kind of my base case, but we we invalidated that case.

历史上，比特币很少在非类似新冠刺激事件的情况下形成V型底部。

Historically, Bitcoin rarely makes v shaped bottoms outside of, say, like COVID stimulus type of events.

通常，它会触及一个低点，然后长时间横盘整理。

Normally, it hits, like, a low level and then goes sideways for for quite a while.

我认为我们现在正处于一种盘整阶段，但这种盘整可能意味着价格在1万美金下方，也可能在2万美金上方，都仍属于盘整阶段。

I I think we're in more of a grind, but a a grind could literally be 10 k lower or it could be 20 k higher, and it's still in that grinding part.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我确实无法预知它具体会在哪里触底。

So I I don't really have kind of foresight on exactly where it's gonna bottom.

我只是觉得这是一个需要时间的过程。

I just I think it'll be a process that takes time.

你和萨姆·卡勒汉合写了一份报告，提到比特币通常与M2和流动性相关，但我感觉流动性和M2都处于历史高位，而我们却看到了背离。

You did a report with Sam Callahan about how it's normally correlated to m two and liquidity, but I feel like liquidity and m two have been at record highs, and we saw a divergence.

你能谈谈这一点吗？这种背离通常多久发生一次？原因是什么？

Can you talk a little bit about that and and how often we might see those divergences and why?

是的。

Yeah.

在那份报告中，凭我记忆，大约83%的情况下，比特币会跟随流动性的方向变动，其余17%则不会。

In that report, I mean, the top of my head, I think it was 83% of the time, it it goes in the direction of liquidity, and the other 17%, it doesn't.

它不跟随的最常见原因是估值问题。

The most common reason it doesn't is because of valuation.

所以当你看到一个非常高的市值，相对于比如平均成本基础时，嗯。

So when you have a very high, let's say, market cap compared to, like, average cost basis Mhmm.

所以你面临巨大的脱节，当流动性和货币供应量仍然保持良好，而比特币却因泡沫无法仅凭尚可的流动性维持而下跌时，更可能出现这种背离。

So you have a very big disconnect, you're more likely to get a divergence where liquidity and money supply are still going fine and Bitcoin's selling off just because a bubble can't necessarily you know, a local bubble can't be maintained just because liquidity is still decent.

这属于那17%的情况之一，两者走向了不同的方向。

This has been one of the 17% of the time where it's kind of gone in different directions.

我认为在很大程度上，这是因为AI的阴影存在。

I think in large part, it's because of that shadow of AI Mhmm.

市场上还有其他地方吸引着这些流动性。

That there that there are other things for that liquidity to wanna go into.

此外，还有其他一些非公开的流动性衡量指标，比如跨境资本流动等。

And then there are, I mean, there are other proprietary measures of liquidity, you know, like cross border capital, for example.

他们拥有自己更专有的数据。

They've got their own more proprietary data.

在我们的文章中，我们主要使用公开可得的数据，但这自然存在局限性。

For our article, we wanted basically publicly available data, which comes with limitations.

而如果你使用专有指标，别人很难验证，但可能得出更准确的结果。

Whereas if you have a proprietary indicator, it's hard for other people to go check it, but it can potentially yield more accurate results.

例如，他一直认为当前流动性并没有上升，反而比表面看起来更加紧张，这当然是有可能的。

And for example, he's been arguing that liquidity is not going up right now, that it's it's actually more strained than it looks, and that's certainly possible.

仍然有一些中央银行正在缩减其资产负债表。

There are still a number of central banks that are reducing their balance sheets.

日本债券市场的收紧是一种下行压力，因为日本是一个主要的债权国。

The the kind of the tightening of the Japanese bond market is a downward force because they're a major creditor nation.

所以，我们实际上并不处于一种爆炸性积极的流动性环境中。

So I I don't really we're not really in, like, an explosively positive liquidity environment.

关于流动性好坏存在一些争议，但并不出色。

There's some debate about how good or bad it is, but it's not amazing.

是的。

Mhmm.

而且，你知道，一些更具风险偏好的迹象，比如当采购经理指数（PMI）上升、经济强劲增长时。

And, like, you know, some of the more risk on things you see, like when when PMIs, like purchasing managed indices, are going up and the economy is kind of raging

是的。

Mhmm.

我们在这个时期也看不到任何这样的迹象。

We don't really see any of that in this period of time either.

因此，许多不属于AI领域的资产都在缓慢盘整。

So a lot of assets that are outside of, like, the, you know, the AI sphere are kind of grinding.

会出现一些随机的赢家和输家，比如拉美银行不知为何表现惊人，AI股票显然表现优异，而其他一些资产则不然。

And and you get random winners and random losers, like Latin American banks somehow doing amazing, AI stocks obviously doing amazing, and other things not.

最近，比特币与软件股票的相关性达到了不同寻常的水平。

And then lately, Bitcoin's been correlated to software stocks to an unusual degree.

这些资产最近一直在下跌。

And those have been selling off.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为它们的下跌在某种程度上是理性的，但最终它们会超卖，从而成为买入机会。

They've been selling off, I think, you know, somewhat rationally, but I think eventually they'll get they'll get oversold and they'll be buying opportunities.

然后，算法可能会突然跟风入场。

And then it's possible that the algos just jump on.

你知道，交易算法认为比特币就是软件。

You know, the the trading algorithms say, well, Bitcoin's software.

对吧？

Right?

然后它们就相互跟风交易。

And then and then they kind of trade in sympathy with each other.

我觉得最近我们听了很多负面说法，比如量子计算会摧毁比特币。

Well, I think we've had a lot of negative narratives lately, everything from quantum is gonna break Bitcoin.

显然，AI股票突然变得更有吸引力了。

Obviously, the AI stocks became suddenly more interesting.

还有爱泼斯坦文件和比特币之间的关联，人们对此津津乐道。

Epstein files and connections to Bitcoin there that people latched on to.

我只是觉得很多人觉得现在不再有清晰的看涨理由了。

I just feel like a lot of people have felt like there isn't a clear bull case anymore.

那如果你要构建一个看涨理由，会是什么？

So if you were to make it, what would it be?

我认为这个论点有两个部分。

I would say there's two parts of the thesis.

一是去中心化账本是有价值的，而且它的价值高于目前占全球资产的0.2%。

One is that a decentralized ledger is valuable and that it's more valuable than, say, its current point 2% of global assets.

人们可以争论这个数字到底是多少。

You know, people can debate what that number is.

看涨者会说，不管这个数字是多少，它都高于0.2%。

A bull would say whatever number it is, it's higher than point 2%.

你知道，如果0.2%变成2%，那就是10倍。

You know, it could be a a 2% is a 10 x.

如果达到20%，那就是100倍。

You know, 20% gets you to a 100 x.

所以，这么说吧。

So it's like, okay.

只要你认为它的总潜在市场规模高于0.2%，那么至少在多年时间尺度上，就存在看涨的理由，尽管在任何六个月或十二个月的短期内未必如此。

Well, it's it is if you're higher than point two percent, the kind of the total addressable market, then there's a bull case, at least over many years, not any given six month or twelve month period.

第二部分基本上是在争论哪一个会胜出。

The second part is basically arguing which one then.

你知道，拜耳可能会说，它们会分裂，出现十个不同的主流项目，但没有一个能做大。

You know, does you know, Bayer might say, well, they'll fracture and there'll be 10 different popular ones and none of them will get big.

然而，注重网络效应的人通常会认为，最终只会有一个胜出，那就是比特币。

Someone who focuses on network effects, however, will generally argue that, you know, basically, that that one is going to win, basically Bitcoin.

这部分论点最近一直很强劲。

And that part of the thesis has been strong lately.

我的意思是，我们几乎没有任何山寨币行情，只有零星的小范围活跃。

I mean, we had we had basically no alt season outside of little pockets.

第二大加密货币自2017年以来，在比特币计价下就再也没有创出新高。

The second biggest cryptocurrency has not made a new high in Bitcoin terms since, like, 2017.

它目前的规模只有比特币的20%。

It's only 20% the size of Bitcoin.

所以我认为，比特币在十七年后的今天，已经牢牢赢得了网络效应和安全性的这场竞争。

So I think Bitcoin, seventeen years in, is firmly kinda winning that network effect and security argument.

而仍然面临挑战的是顶层需求。

And the part that still remains challenged is that top line demand.

你知道，去中心化账本的需求水平到底在哪里？

You know, what is the what is the, like, level of demand for a decentralized ledger?

我认为它的需求本应比现在更高，但显然市场持不同意见。

I would argue that it should be higher than it is now, but, obviously, the market has disagreed.

目前并没有太多买入压力。

There just has not been a lot of buying pressure.

我认为，人们过去常常指出互联网花了多久才普及，而比特币的普及速度更快。

And I think, you know, people like, people used to, like, like to point out how how often took the Internet to catch on and then Bitcoin catching on quicker.

但这个说法现在受损了，因为人工智能刚刚兴起，人们立刻就能看到它可能如何帮助他们。

Well, that narrative's damaged because AI just came and and, you know, people could see right away how this could potentially help them.

而很多人因为比特币的用例通常不是立即需要的。

And a lot of people because Bitcoin's kind of use cases are often not, like, needed immediately.

对吧？

Right?

显然，有些国家是急需的，或者有人被断绝银行服务时，就立刻需要了。

Obviously, some countries are needed immediately or someone gets debanked, they're needed immediately.

但对于很多人来说，这更像是一种保险，他们甚至不一定意识到自己需要它。

But for a lot of people, it's more like insurance where they don't really necessarily even know they need it.

我认为这种状况拖慢了它的普及速度。

And I think that kind of slows down its adoption.

所以，我认为这个论点仍然成立：去中心化账本具有吸引力，其价值很可能超过全球资产的0.2%。

So I I think the thesis is still sound that a decentralized ledger is attractive and probably worth more than point 2% of global assets.

而且，第二点——比特币在这一点上相对于其他众多加密货币的独特性——比以往任何时候都更加明显。

And certainly, that second part is is stronger than ever, that kind of the the fact that Bitcoin is kinda unique in this regard compared to the long tail of other cryptos.

但这一轮周期中，顶层需求就是迟迟没有出现。

But that top line demand has just not been here this cycle.

我觉得你提出了一个非常有意思的观点，因为我自2017年以来就一直在这个领域。

I think you made a really interesting point because I have been in this space since 2017.

我认识的很多人早在更早的时候就进入了，那时候的价格高得离谱，我根本无法想象，他们早期挖矿，或者以几十、几百美元的价格买入。

A lot of folks that I've met came in way before and got in, you know, at these crazy prices I can't even imagine, mining it earlier, buying it at tens of tens, hundreds.

我想知道你怎么可能以每枚100美元的价格买进了比特币。

I'm like, how could you you know, you bought Bitcoin at $100 per Bitcoin.

我简直无法想象。

I can't even imagine it.

但我们也有很多人是在那时进入的，当时手头的钱根本买不起足够多的比特币，除非比特币突然暴涨100倍，否则根本无法改变你的生活。

But a lot of us also came in at the point where we didn't have enough to buy a significant amount that would make a huge difference in your life unless Bitcoin were to suddenly 100x.

因此，我认为几乎出现了一种分化：早期的那些人，不管比特币未来如何，他们现在都已经无所谓了。

And so there's almost been this bifurcation, I think, where you have the early folks who they're kind of fine either way at this point.

他们已经成功了。

They've made it.

他们足够早地入场了。

They they were early enough.

无论比特币从这里走向何方，他们都已经稳了。

And wherever Bitcoin goes from here, they're sort of set.

而大多数人，尤其是我看到参加大会的那些人，他们都在等待那一刻。

And then the majority of the people, especially the ones that I've seen attending the conferences, it's like they're waiting for that.

他们希望成为下一波群体，这样就不必再为自己的财务安全如此担忧了。

They're they're hoping that they become that next cohort that now they don't have to worry so much about their financial security.

看到比特币从2021年的历史高点回落，五年后又回到原点，我认识的一些人说：我觉得这太让人难以接受了。

And to see Bitcoin do sort of a a round trip, right, from, like, the all time high in 2021 back to it five years later, I've talked to people who are like, I don't this is this is a lot.

这种剧烈波动的过山车体验。

The roller coaster of the volatility.

我把钱投到其他资产上，收益可能会更好。

I could have put my money in other assets and outperformed.

我真的再也无法理解了。

Like, I just don't I don't get it anymore.

你该怎么回应他们呢？

What do you say to them?

因为对很多人来说，这确实非常令人失望。

Because it has been, I think for a lot of people, really disappointing.

嗯，我觉得确实如此。

Well, I think it's true.

我认为这确实无法回避，我们已经经历了两个略显失望的周期。

I think there's really no way around that, you know, we've had kind of two semi disappointing cycles.

上一个周期比特币只涨到了6万美元，而这个周期到现在才涨到12.6万美元。

So the one cycle only got to $60.69 k, and then this one only got to $1.26 k so far.

实际上，我想回到多元化投资的话题上。

I I would go back actually to diversification.

我的意思是，当比特币大涨时，这种做法显得很不合时宜。

I mean, I it's it's unfashionable when Bitcoin is soaring.

多元化看起来简直很愚蠢。

Diversification looks really stupid.

你知道，当比特币出现十倍涨幅时，你会想，等等。

You know, when Bitcoin does have one of those 10 x moves, it's like, wait.

你居然还持有股票和黄金。

You own stocks and gold, like, too.

但当你经历一段盘整期时，尤其是在一个会定期再平衡的投资组合中，你反而会在那些低迷时刻加大配置，从而自然地避免在比特币处于峰值阶段时投入过多资金。

But then when you have a a flattish period, especially, you know, in a portfolio that rebalances and stuff, you kinda lean into those weaker moments, and then naturally, you're not putting as much capital in when it's in its kind of peak phases.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

所以，我的方法和我通常建议的是，你可以持有你最喜欢的资产，但也有其他值得持有的资产。

So, you know, kind of my approach and kind of what I've generally recommended is that, you know, you can own, like, your favorite asset, but that there are other assets worth owning too.

实际上，在某些方面，这让你更能坚持持有该资产，因为你没有把所有希望都押在某一个资产、某一个时间段的上涨上，以实现你的目标。

And then actually, in some ways, that makes you stronger at holding that asset because you're not banking everything on one asset in one time frame going up to, you know, fulfill your goals.

你是在说，我要分散我的投资。

You're saying, I'm gonna spread my bets out.

所以，当比特币下跌时，如果一个人只持有比特币，他们可能会讽刺地不得不卖出，尽管他们如此坚定；而如果一个人分散了投资，至少在一定程度上，他们仍然可以对那些自己真正高度看好的领域进行重仓押注。

And so that way, when when Bitcoin goes down, if someone only owns Bitcoin, they could ironically have to sell despite, you know, being so convicted, whereas if someone is spread out, at least to some extent, they can still, you know, place pretty heavy bets on on areas that they really, you know, have high conviction on.

但通过拥有其他资产作为缓冲，他们在市场疲软时期就不必考虑卖出，而且能保留更多现金，以便灵活地在不同资产之间进行调整。

But by having that bulwark of other assets, they don't have to think about selling during periods of weakness, and they can they have more of the dry powder to, you know, shift one asset into here or shift assets around because they have that flexibility.

所以我认为，在牛市中，分散投资显得过时，但在熊市中，我们会重新意识到为什么可以拥有一个投资组合，并想：虽然比特币表现不佳让我失望，但白银却像火箭一样飙升，这在一定程度上缓解了影响。

So I think bull markets, diversification is unfashionable, but in bear markets, we're kind of reminded why, you know, you can have a portfolio and think, well, I'm disappointed that Bitcoin didn't do well, but silver traded like a rocket ship, so it kind of takes away some of the impact.

这就是分散投资的优势。

And that's that's the advantage of diversification.

对。

Right.

别太在意X平台上人们说什么，我知道有很多人说你不能分散投资。

And stop caring what people say on x because I know that there are a lot of people who say, you can't diversify.

但回到我们一开始聊到的情绪问题，现在的感觉确实和2022年很不一样。

But I going back to what we talked about at the beginning with sentiment, it does feel very different from 2022.

我的意思是，我不确定。

I mean, I don't know.

即使当价格跌到1.6万美元时，也似乎只和FTX以及加密货币的崩盘有关，比特币持有者并没有表现出什么担忧。

I felt like even when it tanked to 16 k, it was so isolated to FTX and sort of the crypto blowout that there wasn't any sort of concern from Bitcoiners.

但现在，确实感觉有些不同了。

And now something does feel different.

我想可能是因为人们以为，随着华尔街的合法化、ETF的推出、一位对比特币非常看好的总统，以及SBR的进展，价格应该已经高得多才对。

I guess maybe because people thought that with the Wall Street legitimization and the ETFs and a very bullish Bitcoin president and the SBR that we would be so much higher.

这确实造成了一些认知失调，因为我自己就是这样想的，我不知道我是否代表了部分听这个节目的人。

And it does create some cognitive dissonance because I am someone who I think and I don't know if I represent some of the people listening to this.

但当你长期落后，或者至少感觉落后太久，又没有尽早投资时，你不得不孤注一掷，对吧？

But when you're behind for so long or at least you feel behind for so long and you didn't invest early enough, you kind of have to put all the chips on the table, right?

你必须放手一搏，否则永远无法实现你设定的经济目标。

You have to big or or you're never gonna kind of achieve what you want to in terms of your economic goals.

但这会让你处于一种非常脆弱的境地，当你突然看到净资产大幅上涨又急剧下跌时，这种投资心理绝非易事。

But that does put you in a position where you're very you feel sometimes vulnerable when it all of a sudden, like, you watch your net worth go up and then down so, so, so hard that the psychology of that investing is not something easy.

作为和你一样长期投资、并经常在不同资产间进出、还与他人分享投资组合的人，你对心理层面有什么建议吗？

And as someone who has been investing as long as you have and you do kind of trade in and out of different assets and you share that with people in your portfolios, do you have any advice for the psychology aspect?

是的。

Yeah.

我会建议对这种‘落后就要承担更高风险’的想法保持谨慎。

I would I would recommend caution with that approach of feeling that if someone's behind, they have to bet riskier.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因为这种心态也会让人去购买那些最危险、最垃圾的山寨币。

Because that's also the same mindset that people will then use to buy, like, the riskiest, junkiest, like, altcoin out there.

是的。

Yeah.

因为他们觉得，比特币最多只能涨到某个程度，而这种没什么名气的代币却可能涨一百倍。

Because they're thinking, well, Bitcoin can only go up, you know, a certain amount, whereas this this, like, you know, no name token could go up a 100 x.

是的。

Yeah.

因为它基数太小了。

It's starting from such a tiny base.

当然，从长远来看，这种想法会粉碎梦想。

And, of course, in the in the long run, that that, like, breaks dreams.

是的。

Yeah.

当然，有人可能会走运，或者现在就赶上了。

Someone, of course, can get lucky or or, you know, be be in now.

但这种想法背后有一种财务虚无主义的倾向，虽然诱人，但我建议大多数人不要这么做，因为稳扎稳打确实更有回报，而那些孤注一掷的赌注，更多是押在自己身上。

But that there's like a financial nihilism aspect that is it's enticing, but I would recommend most people against it, which is the slow and steady really does kind of pay off and that the parts that bet big, I think, are more on yourself.

这意味着，如果有人觉得自己落后了，想赶上来，他们可以尝试在投资之外的其他方面入手来加速进程。

Meaning that if someone feels behind, they want to get ahead, there are other things outside of investing that they can do to try to kick start it.

比如，可以创业。

It could be starting a business, for example.

就像我们之前讨论的，我认为赢家将是那些善于利用人工智能的人。

It could be like we talked about, you know, I think the winners are gonna be those that are kinda using AI well.

我的意思是，这个世界从未对任何人如此开放过。

I mean, it's kinda like the the world's never been more available to someone.

如果你的问题是，怎么负担得起雇员的费用？

You know, if if your problem was, you know, how are gonna afford employees?

嗯，人工智能更便宜。

Well, AIs are cheaper.

当人们有了想法时，有大量工具可用，我认为，如果有人真想放手一搏，那应该是在自己身上。

There's plenty of tools available when people kind of have an idea, and I think that's that's if someone's gonna try to really swing for the fences, it's on themselves.

而我认为，你的投资组合并不一定需要为此孤注一掷。

And I think your portfolio, you don't want to necessarily swing for the fences with it.

不过，我认为集中押注仍然是有道理的，但这种集中可能体现在一个通常只投入1%的超高波动性头寸上，现在你可能会投入20%。

Now, again, I I still think it's taking concentrated bets does make sense, but, you know, concentration could be, you know, in a super volatile position that you normally only put 1% in, maybe put 20% in.

对吧？

Right?

但这仍然不像有些人那样做到90%。

And it's but it's still not, you know, 90% as some people do.

所以，这与我认为的许多人的做法是不同的。

So it's just a different approach compared to, I think, many.

嗯，确实如此。

Well, yeah.

现在有些人正面临这种情况。

And some people are facing that right now.

当价格接近底部时，你该不该卖出呢？

And it's like, do you sell when it's nearing a bottom?

对吧？

Right?

至于分散投资，不。

And to diversify, no.

你当然想在高点卖出，但交易真的非常具有挑战性。

You obviously wanna sell at the top, but trading is it's so challenging.

确实如此。

It really is.

我的意思是，我看到一些分析师在十月左右说，我们正进入一个过热的阶段，但你总是担心，一旦卖出，价格就会突然飙升到你够不着的地步。

I mean, I've I saw analysts say around October, you know, we're reaching a frothy area but like you always are afraid that you're gonna sell and it's gonna all of a sudden go out of reach for you.

但这个行业真的很迷人，因为《金钱心理学》的作者摩根·豪塞尔提到，其他所有领域都需要更多的科学性。

But it's just such a fascinating industry because in Psychology of Money, the author Morgan Housel writes about how everything else, you know, requires more of a science.

比如，建造桥梁的博士工程师需要特定的技能和背景，但金融投资在某种程度上更像是一门艺术。

It's like a PhD that's building a bridge, an engineer that has a certain skill set and background, but with financial investing, it's kind of just an art in a way.

它是基于感觉的。

Like, it's feeling based.

它是基于心理的。

It's psychology based.

你无法预测人类的行为。

And you can't predict human behavior.

有时候，当我们以为价格会上涨时，它却突然崩盘，反之亦然。

And sometimes when we think it's going to run up, it actually crashes and vice versa.

你可能会看到一个清洁工的表现超越了MBA毕业生。

And you could have like a janitor outperforming an MBA.

这真的非常有趣。

And it's just so fascinating.

所以我只是觉得这是一个有趣的收获。

So I just thought that was, an interesting takeaway.

还有什么最后的想法吗？

Any final thoughts?

我认为你最后一点的评论很有道理，这正是宏观投资如此有趣的原因——我把它当作一盘国际象棋，但规则会随着时间慢慢变化。

Well, I think that the comment on your last point, I think that that's that would make that's what make investing in macro so interesting is that I approach it like a like a chess game, but then where the rules slowly change over time.

是的。

Yeah.

所以你不能只是简单地掌握一套规则。

So you can't just kinda, like, master one set of rules.

规则是会变化的。

The rules shift.

所以你永远无法真正解开这个谜题。

So you're never you never solve the puzzle.

这个谜题一直在演变，你始终在努力跟上它的步伐。

The puzzle's always evolving, and you're always trying to keep up with it.

这正是它如此吸引人的地方。

That's what makes it so fascinating.

当然，如果你能稍微擅长这件事，回报也会非常可观。

And, of course, their rewards are pretty big if you can get halfway decent at at doing it.

我想总结一下，关于比特币，我觉得这个周期令人失望。

I think kind of to finish up, I would say, focusing on Bitcoin, I think this has been a disappointing cycle.

我对盲目追随新叙事要保持谨慎，尽管我认为总是会有新的相关叙事出现。

I would be careful about latching on to new narratives, even though I do think that there are always new relevant narratives.

我是觉得，关于AI这个说法，嘿。

Like, I do think that the narrative about, hey.

AI需要的是数字货币，比如比特币和稳定币，这确实是最好的资金选择。

AI is you know, the best money for AI AI is digital money, so things like Bitcoin and Stablecoins.

我认为这绝对是对的。

I think that's absolutely true.

但我不会指望下一个叙事来拯救它。

I wouldn't look for the next narrative to save it, though.

更重要的是，人们最终是否想要一种自我托管、可携带、不可贬值的储蓄方式？

It's more about, ultimately, do people wanna have self custodial, portable, undebasable savings or not?

有多少人想要，以及在什么情境下他们会需要这种储蓄方式？

And and what percentage people do and in what context will they want that?

我们有个笑话，说我们需要更多的播客。

There's, like, a joke that we need more podcasts.

这其实有一定道理，因为现在相关工具都已经建好了。

And it there's some truth to it, which is basically it's the the tools are built now.

确实有很好的解决方案，是的。

There's really good solutions Yeah.

比如私密储蓄、无许可支付。

For, you know, private savings, permissionless payments.

已经构建了很多层基础设施。

There's ton there's layers that have been built out.

市面上有很多非常好的工具，人们首先得意识到它们的存在，其次要明白它们如何帮助自己，然后才能真正使用它们。

There's tons of really good tools out there, and people have to, one, realize that they exist, two, see how they can help them, and then, three, actually use them.

所以我认为教育仍然是关键部分。

So I think still education is is a key part.

我喜欢你这种说法。

Well, I like the way you put it.

你是个看跌的多头。

You're a bearish bull.

对吧？

Right?

最终，我也是这样。

Ultimately, I am the same way.

我尽量保持谨慎和小心。

I try to be a little cautious and careful.

在结束之前，你曾在 Noster 上分享了一些内容。

Before we wrap up, you shared something on Noster.

我很好奇你是否愿意谈谈它。

I was curious if you might wanna talk about it.

三月份要发布的东西。

Something releasing in March.

有什么想分享的吗？

Any anything you wanna share?

我有一本新的科幻小说即将出版。

I have a new sci fi book coming out.

是的。

Yeah.

顺便说一下，我已经读过了。

Which I've read, by way.

它太棒了，我非常兴奋。

It's phenomenal, and I'm so excited.

我等不及了。

I can't wait.

是的。

Yeah.

它讲的是什么？你愿意分享一些吗？

Just what's it about, or do you wanna share anything?

近未来。

Near future.

所以它不像太空歌剧。

So it's not like a space opera.

近未来是一个虚拟现实的世界。

Near future is a world of VR.

比特币在其中有所体现。

Bitcoin does make a presence in it.

是的，确实如此。

Yes, does.

但这并不是一本所谓的‘比特币之书’。

Not a, quote, unquote, Bitcoin book.

但这是未来，我认为比特币将在未来存在。

But it's the future, and I think Bitcoin will exist in the future.

我不会完全剧透，但核心内容基本上是对我们当前状况的延伸，也就是人工智能，嗯。

And, basically, I won't give away the full thing, but the the the core of it is is basically that of an extrapolation of where we are now, which is AI Mhmm.

在许多方面正在逐渐掌控互联网。

Kinda taking over the Internet in in many ways.

很难验证任何事情。

It's very hard to verify anything.

那么，如果发生了一个极端事件，但没人相信，也没人去深入调查，因为很容易就把人们的注意力引向其他事情呢？

And then it's like, what happens if an extreme event actually happens, but no one really believes it or no one really looks into it because it's so easy to just kinda misdirect people to another thing?

那么，有人愿意做些什么来摆脱这种环境呢？

And then what what is someone willing to kinda do to break out of that type of environment?

这太棒了，我非常期待世界能读到它。

Well, it's incredible, and I'm so excited for the world to read it.

你是一位出色的作家，无论是你的通讯《Broken Money》——每个人都该读一读，还是这本小说。

You're a fantastic writer, whether it's your newsletters, Broken Money, which everyone needs to read, or this fiction book.

所以我非常期待这本书能与世人见面。

So I'm super excited for the world to get it.

非常感谢你来参加我的节目，Lynn。

Thank you so much for joining me, Lynn.

和你交谈总是非常愉快。

It's always a pleasure to talk to you.

请提醒一下大家，去哪里可以订阅你的通讯。

And please remind people where to get your newsletter.

人们可以访问 lynnaldon.com，然后在亚马逊或其他地方查看《Broken Money》。

People can go to lynnaldon.com, and they can check out Broken Money on Amazon or elsewhere.

谢谢。

And and thank you.

是的。

Yeah.

一定要两者都订阅。

Make sure to get both.

请订阅。

Subscribe.

非常感谢你，Lynn。

Thank you so much, Lynn.

非常感谢你收听本期《Coin Stories》。

Thank you so much for checking out this episode of Coin Stories.

请务必订阅本节目，以免错过任何新 episodes。

Make sure you're subscribed to the show so you don't miss any new episodes.

如果可以的话，请开启通知并给我们留下一个好评。

If you can, turn on those notifications and leave us a positive review.

它们真的有助于节目通过新听众自然增长。

They really help the show grow organically with new listeners.

我们有一个免费的每周通讯。

We have a free weekly newsletter.

你可以通过 newsblock.substack.com 订阅。

You can sign up at the newsblock.substack.com.

本节目仅用于教育和娱乐目的。

This show is for educational and entertainment purposes only.

任何内容都不应被视为财务投资建议，您应始终自行进行研究。

Nothing should constitute as financial investment advice, and you should always do your own research.

我始终欢迎反馈和嘉宾建议，请随时通过 info@talkingbitcoin.com 联系我的团队。

I'm always open to feedback and guest suggestions, so please feel free to reach my team at info@talkingbitcoin.com.

下次见。

I'll see you next time.