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实际上，没有任何一个成功的科技投资案例是不需要经历45%的回撤并穿越那段绝望谷底的。
There really is no example of a successful technology investment where you didn't have to weather the 45% drawdown and go through that valley of despair.
到目前为止，我们的项目已经持续了137天。
Ours is currently taking a hundred thirty seven days so far.
但你知道，它可能需要两年，可能需要三年，也可能需要四年。
But you know, it might take two years, it might take three years, it might take four years.
如果花了七年，那恭喜你了。
If it took seven years, congratulations.
这就像苹果公司，这十年来最成功的案例。
It's just like Apple Computer, the biggest success story of the decade.
每个人都想听他讲话。
Everyone wants to hear from him.
迈克尔·赛勒。
Michael Saylor.
非常感谢你参加我的节目。
Thank you so much for joining me on the show.
很高兴见到你。
It's great to see you.
感觉你可能是为数不多的看涨者了。
You're one of the only bulls left it feels like.
哦，我认为还有很多看涨者。
Oh, I think there's a lot of bulls out there.
只是他们在等待。
Just they're waiting.
那我们就从这里开始吧。
Well, let's start right there.
比特币价格下跌，情绪相当消极。
Bitcoin's price is down, sentiment is pretty negative.
批评者说这个观点正在崩溃。
Critics are saying the thesis is breaking.
他们不明白什么？
What do they not understand?
好的。
Okay.
首先，你知道，自从上一个历史新高已经过去137天了。
First of all, you know, it's a hundred and thirty seven days since the last all time high.
四个半月。
Four and a half months.
这相当于生一个孩子所需时间的一半。
Half the amount of time it takes to make a baby.
四个半月。
Four and a half months.
现在，我们已经下跌了45%。
Now, we're off 45%.
对吧？
Right?
历史新高大约是125，我们现在是67，也就是675左右。
The all time high is like one twenty five, we're 67, you know, sixty seven five or so.
所以，你知道，2013年我有一段广为流传的视频，当时我在谈论iPhone和苹果的优点。
So, you know, there's a famous video of me in 2013 speaking about the virtues of the iPhone and Apple and it went viral for a while.
地球上没有一个八岁孩子不想要一部iPhone 5。
There's not an eight year old on the planet that doesn't want an iPhone five.
是的。
Mhmm.
如果你回溯一下我们这个时代最伟大的公司——苹果，以及最成功的股票，那支让无数人暴富的股票。
And if you go back and you look at maybe the greatest company of our era, Apple, and the greatest stock, a stock that made people insanely rich.
苹果在2007年发布了iPhone。
Apple releases the iPhone in 2007.
苹果的市盈率是30。
The p to e of Apple is 30.
iPhone在两年内并不成功。
The iPhone isn't a success for two years.
大约在2009年，随着iPhone 3的推出，人们开始转变看法，包括我自己在内，我当初并不觉得初代iPhone或iPhone 2有什么用。
Around 2009, on the iPhone three, people start to think, myself included, I didn't think the iPhone, the original iPhone one or two were that useful.
当时还没有应用商店，也没有复制粘贴功能，它们更像是玩具。
There was no app store, there was no cut and paste, they were kind of toys.
到了2009年，iPhone开始真正好用了，那是iPhone 3。
Around 2009, the iPhone starts working, it's iPhone three.
到2012年，iPhone已经发展到iPhone 4或iPhone 5，大家都认为这是个很棒的产品。
By 2012, they're around the iPhone four or iPhone five, everybody agrees it's a cool product.
苹果股价达到顶峰后，随即暴跌。
Apple stock peaks, then it crashes.
从2012年底到2013年5月，苹果股价下跌了45%。
Between late two thousand and twelve and May 2013, Apple stock falls 45%.
比特币也下跌了同样的45%。
The same 45% Bitcoins fall.
苹果的市盈率降至10。
The Apple PDE goes to 10.
福特的市盈率低于10。
The Ford PDE less than 10.
它被估值为一只疲惫的现金奶牛，你知道的，就像公用事业公司。
It's being valued like a tired cash cow, you know, utility company.
好像没有任何科技，没有未来，人们对它失去了信心。
Like no technology, no future, people are down on it.
你知道吗，娜塔莉，苹果从2013年市盈率20恢复到30花了多久？
You know how long it takes, Natalie, before Apple recovers to a P to E of 30 from 2013?
几年？
Years?
七年。
Seven years.
七年。
Seven years.
到2020年，苹果的市盈率重回30。
In 2020, Apple returns to a PDE of 30.
所以从2007年到2020年，这是一个十三年的周期。
So it's thirteen year cycle from 2007 to 2020.
这个时代最伟大的公司，你知道的，多次成为最有价值的公司，拥有最成功的产品，这个产品让十亿人一致认为他们根本离不开它，也许是人类历史上最成功的产品，却花了十三年才从高峰跌至低谷再回升，七年才恢复过来。
The greatest company of its era, you know, at at many times the most valuable company, the most successful product, the product that a billion people agree is is something they can't live without, maybe the most successful product in the history of the human race takes thirteen years peak to to trough to peak, seven years to recover.
你知道人们再次给苹果公司赋予30倍市盈率需要什么吗？
And you know what it took for people to give Apple the PD of 30 again?
需要卡尔·伊坎和沃伦·巴菲特的背书。
The endorsement of Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett.
哇。
Wow.
这两个人可能根本就没怎么用过iPhone，甚至根本不用。
Two people who probably didn't even use the iPhone that much, if at all.
你从来不会读到卡尔·伊坎或沃伦·巴菲特写的iPhone评测，对吧？
You never would have read a review from Carl Icahn or Warren Buffett on the iPhone, did you?
他们是你心目中科技倡导者或科技评论家名单上的顶尖人物吗？
Like are they at the top of your technology, you know, advocate list or technology reviewer list?
这就是传统市场如何评估创新的一个例子。
So that's an example of how conventional markets evaluate innovation.
而这里有个讽刺之处，对吧？
And and here's the irony, right?
在我做那个演讲的时候，我说，看，这是iPhone 5。
At the point that I give that speech, you know, I'm saying, hey, this is an iPhone five.
没有一个六岁孩子不想要这款iPhone 5。
There's not a six year old that doesn't want this iPhone five.
在我演讲的时候，大家普遍认为iPhone是人们离不开的东西，而且没有任何其他产品能与之媲美。
At the point I give the speech, there's general consensus that the iPhone is something you can't live without and no one's got a product nearly as good.
然而，传统市场却在反向交易它。
And yet, the the conventional market's counter trading it.
好吧。
Okay.
所以如果你在过去十年里赚了钱，你很可能买了科技巨头的股票。
So if you got rich in the past decade, you probably bought big tech.
你很可能买了苹果的股票。
You probably bought Apple.
你很可能还买了谷歌。
You probably bought Google.
你很可能还买了元宇宙公司（Meta）。
You probably bought Meta.
也许你买了亚马逊。
Maybe you bought Amazon.
也许你买了英伟达。
Maybe you bought Nvidia.
也许你买了特斯拉。
Maybe you bought Tesla.
如果你没买科技巨头的股票，根本不可能致富。
There's no way you got rich without buying big tech.
科技巨头一直是主要的惊人成功案例。
Big tech has been the primary screaming success.
这些股票上涨了10倍、20倍、30倍，甚至50倍。
The stocks are up 10 x, 20 x, 30 x, 50 x.
但在所有情况下，你都能找到一些传统市场低估和忽视它们的例子。
But in all cases, you find examples of the conventional market that under appreciates them and underestimates them.
对于苹果来说，它经历了七年的低谷期。
With Apple, it was seven years through the wilderness.
对于亚马逊，我记得有四到八年的时间，主流观点都认为亚马逊是一家糟糕的公司。
With Amazon, I remember Amazon for something like four to eight years, conventional wisdom was Amazon's an awful company.
他们永远赚不到钱。
They'll never make any money.
他们永远不会有什么成就。
They'll never amount to anything.
在整整十年里，你几乎随时都能买到亚马逊，而当时的主流投资者却对它嗤之以鼻。
That you can almost could have bought Amazon anytime for a decade while conventional investors crapped all over it.
直到2020年封锁期间，人们才恍然大悟：哦，天哪。
And it wasn't until 2020 during the lockdown, so people go, oh, wow.
看来我们确实需要亚马逊。
I guess we need Amazon.
嗯。
Mhmm.
当然，就在上周，亚马逊的营收超过了沃尔玛。
And of course, just this last week, Amazon's revenue surpassed Walmart.
亚马逊成为全球营收最高的公司。
And Amazon became the largest company in the world by revenue.
但你什么时候能断定亚马逊会成功呢？
But when could you have concluded Amazon was gonna work?
2010年，2012年。
Twenty ten, twenty twelve.
当时已经很明显，不会有任何竞争对手能挑战亚马逊。
It was it was already obvious there was gonna be no competitor to Amazon.
到2012年，没人可能做到他们正在做的事。
No one could possibly do what they were doing by 2012.
八年之后，人们普遍认为是这样。
Eight years later, you know, conventional wisdom is that.
苹果也是如此。
The same is true with Apple.
就像比特币，你在什么时候能从根本上得出比特币是全球数字资本的结论？
It's like, so Bitcoin, at what point do you have the fundamental ability to conclude that Bitcoin is global digital capital?
那么，有哪些迹象呢？
Now, like what's the indicia?
美国总统正在告诉你，对吧？
The president of The United States is telling you, right?
美联储主席凯文·沃尔什正在告诉你。
The head of the Fed, Kevin Walsh is telling you.
财政部长斯科特·贝桑特正在告诉你。
The head of the treasury, Scott Bessant is telling you.
证交会主席、商品期货交易委员会主席，还有其他八位内阁成员，你知道的。
The head of the SEC, the head of the CFTC, eight other cabinet members, you know.
所有中东主权财富基金都在告诉你，贝莱德也在告诉你，对吧，我的公司市值是其企业价值的100倍。
All the Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are telling you, BlackRock is telling you, right, my company is a 100 x its enterprise value.
对吧？
Right?
在资本市场历史上，有哪家公司曾经花550亿美元购买一种商品，然后大声宣称这是数字资本、这是世界的新货币？
When in the history of the capital markets did a company ever buy $55,000,000,000 worth of a commodity, and then loudly declare that this is digital capital and this is the new money of the world?
从来没有。
Never.
Coin Stories 由 Gemini 赞助播出。
Coin Stories is proudly brought to you by Gemini.
今天就开始你的比特币储蓄账户吧。
Start your Bitcoin savings account today.
此外，得益于 Gemini 的橙色比特币信用卡，投资比特币从未如此简单。
Plus, investing in Bitcoin has never been easier thanks to Gemini's orange Bitcoin credit card.
我就有一张在这里。
I've got mine right here.
在加油、餐饮、杂货等日常消费中，最高可获得4%的比特币返现。
Earn up to 4% back in Bitcoin on everyday purchases like gas, dining, groceries, and more.
无年费，无跨境交易费，奖励兑换也无汇率手续费。
No annual fee, no foreign transaction fees, and no exchange fees on your rewards.
前往 gemini.com/natalie。
Head to gemini.com/natalie.
别忘了获取我的新书《比特币入门一〇一》，比特币属于每一个人。
Make sure to get your copy of my new Bitcoin one zero one book, bit Bitcoin is for everyone.
它解释了为什么生活变得如此昂贵，以及比特币如何帮助你建立持久的财富与自由。
It explains why life has become so unaffordable and how Bitcoin can help you build lasting wealth and freedom.
这本书是送给比特币新手的完美礼物。
It makes the perfect gift for those new to Bitcoin.
只需访问我节目说明中的链接。
Just visit the link in my show notes.
《Coin Stories》还由 Ledin 赞助。
Coin Stories is also brought to you by Ledin.
需要现金但不想卖出你的比特币？
Need cash but don't wanna sell your Bitcoin?
Ledin是全球领先的比特币抵押贷款机构，自2018年以来已发放超过90亿美元的贷款，并且是首家提供储备证明的公司。
Ledin is the global leader in Bitcoin backed loans, issuing over $9,000,000,000 in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves.
使用Ledin，你可以获得托管贷款、无需月供，还有更多优势。
With Ledin, you get custody loans, no monthly payments, and more.
访问ledin.io/natalie了解更多信息，并享受首笔贷款利率降低0.25个百分点的优惠。
Visit ledin.io/natalie to learn more and get a quarter percentage point off your first loan.
我很快会分享我在Ledin的比特币贷款经历，敬请期待。
I'll be sharing my Ledin Bitcoin loan journey soon, so stay tuned.
还有丰矿。
And abundant mines.
我欣赏丰矿的一点是，他们让比特币挖矿变得非常简单。
One thing I appreciate about abundant mines is how straightforward they make bitcoin mining.
你拥有设备，他们在美国为你托管，而且价格 upfront 清晰明了。
You own the machines, they host them in The US, and the pricing is clear upfront.
它专为那些希望参与挖矿但不想亲自运营的人设计，且设备可能符合100%第一年加速折旧的资格。
It's built for people who want exposure to mining without running operations themselves, and the equipment may qualify for one hundred percent first year bonus depreciation.
了解为什么这么多房地产投资者正在转向比特币挖矿。
Learn why so many real estate investors are turning to Bitcoin mining.
前往 abundantminds.com/natalie。
Head to abundantminds.com/natalie.
好的。
Okay.
所以十亿够了吗？
So is a billion enough?
一百亿够了吗？
Is 10,000,000,000 enough?
五千亿美元够了吗？
Is 50,000,000,000 enough?
对吧？
Right?
你在什么时候才算对这个有了足够的基本面理解？
At what point do you have enough fundamental insight on this?
我认为，早在世界公认之前十年，你就已经足够清楚亚马逊是不可阻挡的。
Well, I would say, you had enough to know that Amazon was unstoppable a decade before the world agreed.
你在七年前，甚至可能是十年前的2009年，就已经有足够的洞察力知道苹果是不可阻挡的。
You had enough insight to know that Apple was unstoppable seven years before, probably ten years, actually in 2009.
在世界达成共识的十一年前，你就已经知道它是不可阻挡的。
Eleven years before the world agreed, you knew it was unstoppable.
你现在拥有的信息已经足以判断比特币是不可阻挡的。
You have enough information to know that Bitcoin is unstoppable right now.
世界最终会达成共识，而这种共识将由沃伦·巴菲特和卡尔·伊坎这样的人推动形成。
The world's gonna eventually come to a consensus and it'll be the Warren Buffets and the Carl Icons of the world that will be what creates that consensus.
他们不会是第一批入场的，而是最后一批，他们也不会赚取巨额利润，最多只是让资金翻两到三倍。
They won't be first, they'll be last, they won't make a huge amount of money, they'll double or triple their money.
对吧？
Right?
他们会入场，而市盈率会从10升到30，在十二个月内让他们的资金翻三倍。
And they will enter and the PD goes from 10 to 30, they triple their money in a in a twelve month time period.
如果你能独立思考，并且能够承受市场波动，你的投资有可能获得10倍、20倍甚至30倍的回报。
And if you're you're able to think for yourself and if you're able to weather volatility, you can 10 x, 20 x, 30 x on your investment.
但事实上，所有成功的科技投资案例中，都没有人能避开45%的回撤并穿越那段绝望的低谷。
But there really is no example of successful technology investment where you didn't have to weather the 45 drawdown and go through that valley of despair.
对吧？
Right?
我们目前的周期已经持续了137天。
Ours is currently taking a hundred thirty seven days so far.
但你知道，它可能需要两年、三年，甚至四年。
But you know, it might take two years, it might take three years, it might take four years.
如果花了七年，那恭喜你了。
If it took seven years, congratulations.
这就像苹果电脑一样，是这十年最成功的案例。
It's just like Apple Computer, the biggest success story of the decade.
你对那些感到失望的人会说什么呢？他们觉得牛市没能突破126,000点。
What do you say to those out there who feel disappointed by the bull market that we didn't go higher than 126,000?
那对于为什么我们没有达到许多人期待的那些价格预测，你的理由是什么？
And what is your reasoning for why we didn't get to maybe some of those price predictions that a lot of people wanted?
我认为市场正在演变，整个生态系统也在成熟和沉淀。
I think the market is evolving, the entire ecosystem is evolving and seasoning.
如果你观察所有动态，衍生品市场正从离岸转向在岸，并且正在走向成熟。
And if you look at all the dynamics, the derivatives market is migrating from offshore to onshore and it is maturing.
因此，随着美国受监管市场的衍生品增长，比特币的一些波动性和部分上行空间被削弱了。
And so as derivatives in The US regulated markets grow, that strips some of the volatility off of Bitcoin and some of the upside off of it.
它抑制了上行空间。
It damps the upside.
它同时也抑制了下行风险，不再出现80%的回撤和80的波动率，而是变成了40%或50%的回撤和50的波动率。
It also damps the downside instead of an 80% drawdown and an 80 vol, you get a 40 or 50% drawdown and a 50 vol.
因此，你看到市场成熟正在同时抑制比特币的上行和下行波动。
So you're seeing volatility damped on the upside and the downside by the seasoning of the markets.
但你也面临一种情况：传统银行业正在以渐进但比短注意力人群期望更慢的速度接纳比特币。
But you also have a situation where the banking establishment is embracing Bitcoin at a a progressive but a slower rate than people with short attention spans would like.
银行需要四到五年，甚至六年的时间，才会接纳一种全新的资产类别。
It'll take the banks four years, five years, six years before they embrace an entirely new asset class.
人们却希望比特币在四个月内就能得到认可。
People would like for Bitcoin to be recognized in four months.
但如果银行要花四年时间才开始为比特币提供银行服务、授信、承认它、处理它、交易它、托管它等等。
But if the banks take four years before they start to bank it, extend credit on it, acknowledge it and handle it, trade it, custody it, etcetera.
那么这意味着，在市场高位时，有2万亿美元的比特币，可能约1.8万亿美元由散户或离岸投资者持有，而他们无法接入传统银行体系，只能停留在影子银行系统中。
Then that means that what you have at the top of the market is $2,000,000,000,000 worth of Bitcoin, probably 1,800,000,000,000.0 held by retail investors or offshore investors and they cannot access the traditional banking system, they're in the shadow banking system.
所以，如果你拥有1.8万亿美元甚至更多的资本，却没人愿意用它做抵押给你贷款，那你该如何将其变现？
So if you had $1,800,000,000,000 or or or more than a trillion dollars worth of capital and no one would give you a loan on it, then how do you monetize it?
对吧？
Right?
如果我用一千万美元的苹果股票作为抵押，存入摩根大通或摩根士丹利，我可以拿到五百万美元的贷款，利率是SOFR加50个基点，然后我就能自由支配这笔钱。
If I posted $10,000,000 of Apple stock with JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley, I could take a $5,000,000 loan at Sofer plus 50 basis points and I could spend it.
但你现在根本无法用一千万美元的比特币作为抵押，向摩根大通或摩根士丹利申请贷款。
But but you can't even post $10,000,000 worth of Bitcoin with JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley right now.
因此，你无法获得贷款。
Therefore, you can't take a loan.
因此，你只能转向影子银行系统。
Therefore, you have to go to a shadow banking system.
你必须去海外。
You have to go offshore.
那么，你究竟如何将其变现呢？
So how would you actually monetize it?
你只能卖掉它，对吧？
You either have to sell it, right?
安全的方式是卖掉它，但这会抑制上涨空间。
The safe way is to sell it but that damps the upside.
你还能做什么？
What else can you do?
顺便说一下，你可以从少数几家不重新抵押你比特币的加密货币交易所获得少量贷款，但这类资本总额可能只有几十亿美元。
You can by the way, you can get loans, a very small amount of loans from a few crypto exchanges where they don't rehypothecate your Bitcoin, but but the sum of that capital is a few billion dollars probably.
所以，你可能可以以SOFR加500个基点或SOFR加400个基点的利率，获得几十亿美元的比特币信贷。
So maybe there's a few billion dollars of Bitcoin credit that you can tap at SOFR plus 500 basis points or SOFR plus 400 basis points.
好的。
Okay.
这不是SOFR加40，是SOFR加400。
This not SOFR plus 40, SOFR plus 400.
因此，实际提取资金的成本要高出十倍。
So it's 10 times as expensive to actually draw down capital.
那能拿到多少资金？
And how much capital?
只有证券组合可用资金的千分之一。
One one thousandth of the amount of capital available for securities portfolios.
所以，通过传统银行体系可获得的资金不到1%。
So there's a there's 1% or less of the capital available through the conventional banking system.
这很昂贵。
It's expensive.
明白吗？
Okay?
你还能做什么？
What else can you do?
嗯，我想你可以把比特币换成iBit。
Well, I guess you can convert the Bitcoin to iBit.
就在过去六个月里，一些银行开始以iBit为抵押提供贷款，而且它的成本比比特币贷款略高。
And just in the past six months, some banks are starting to extend credit against iBit and it's it's a bit more expensive than Bitcoin credit.
它稍微便宜一点，但我们才刚进入第一年。
It's a bit cheaper, but we're only in the first twelve months.
它仍然昂贵，而且贷款价值比仍然有限。
And it's still expensive and still it's like limited in in its loan to value.
现在，还有第三个可以获得信贷的地方。
Now, there's a third place you can get credit.
第三个地方是去加密货币交易所或场外交易市场，他们通常会以4%、3%、5%或2%的利率提供贷款。
And the third place is you go to a crypto exchange or an OTC exchange and they'll oftentimes give you a loan at 4% or 3% or 5% or 2%.
有人曾向我提供过利率低至1%甚至0%的比特币抵押贷款？
I've had people offer me Bitcoin backed credit at 1% or 0%?
那其中的陷阱是什么，娜塔莉？
What's the catch, Natalie?
没错。
Right.
这正是问题所在。
That's the question.
陷阱总是有的，他们希望我把比特币转给他们，以便他们再次抵押。
There's always the catch is they want me to transfer the Bitcoin to them so they can re hypothecate it.
对。
Right.
所以如果你有1000万美元，要么无法从正规银行获得贷款，要么只能获得利率高达10%的小额贷款，要么能获得3%或4%的贷款，但你的资产会被再次抵押。
So if you have $10,000,000, you either cannot get a loan from a legitimate bank or you can get a small loan at a 10% interest rate or you can get a three or 4% loan but then it gets rehypothecated.
所以你的1000万美元比特币会被转卖一次、两次，甚至三次。
So your $10,000,000 of Bitcoin gets sold once, gets sold twice, gets sold three times.
你可能实际上创造了三千万到四千万美元的抛售压力，因为你抵押的比特币被转移给了影子银行或加密交易所，并被重复抵押了三次。
You might have you might actually create 30 or $40,000,000 worth of selling because the Bitcoin that you posted is that you transferred to the shadow bank or the crypto exchange, rehypothecated it three times.
好的。
Okay.
那么是什么压低了价格呢？
So what's holding down the price?
我认为压低资产价格的原因是缺乏一个完全成熟的、不重复抵押的信贷体系，对吧？
I think what holds down the price of the asset is the lack of a fully formed non rehypothecating credit system, right?
对于其他某些资产，你能重复抵押的额度也是有限的，对吧？
And there's a limit to how much you can rehypothecate certain other assets, right?
当你用房产作为抵押申请按揭贷款时，银行并不会把你们街上其他人的房子转手卖出十次。
When you post your home as collateral for a mortgage, the bank doesn't turn around and sell the house on your street 10 times.
如果他们这么做了，你们街上的房价就会下跌。
If they did, the price of houses on your street would be lower.
对吧？
Right?
所以我认为，缺乏一个完善的银行体系抑制了价格。
So I I think that the lack of a fully formed banking system holds the price back.
加密经济中再抵押的存在抑制了波动性。
The existence of rehypothecation in the crypto economy damps the vol.
它对两个方向都有影响。
It works to both sides.
对吧？
Right?
当人们想做空时，可能会使用50倍杠杆。
When when people want to get short, they might get short 50 x leverage.
当他们想做多时，也可能使用50倍杠杆。
When they wanna get long, they might get long 50 x leverage.
所以目前，我们正处于一个再抵押抑制价格的熊市中。
So right now, we're in that that bear market where you've got the rehypothecation holding back the price.
我认为在某个时候，这种情况会反过来。
And I think at some point it reverses itself.
我们只能等待。
We'll just have to wait.
你总是说，波动性就是生命力。
Well, you always say that volatility is vitality.
所以你是否担心，你对比特币年复合增长率40%的预测可能会改变或减弱？还是你的悲观、乐观和基准情景在未来十到十五年里依然相近？
So do you worry that your projections of like Bitcoin 40% ARR could be changing and diminishing or are your bare, bull and base cases pretty similar for the next ten to fifteen
我展望未来二十一年，预计年复合增长率约为29%。
I look at twenty one years, you know, and I expect about 29% ARR over the next twenty one years.
我一直认为我们会经历反弹和回撤，对吧？
I've always thought that we would have rallies and drawdowns, right?
我认为这是一种蛇形模式，长期来看增长率略低于30%，但期间会有一些时期大幅上涨，也会有一些时期回落。
I see it as a serpentine pattern, you know, where it's just slightly less than 30% over time, but there'll be periods when it will surge and there'll be periods when it will draw down.
这一点不会改变。
That doesn't change.
我觉得，如果你听别人说，有人可能会说，比如这个周末，伊朗或中东可能出点问题。
I think, you know, if you listen to people, someone will say, well, know, this weekend there might be some problem in Iran or in The Middle East.
如果中东出现问题，而美国对伊朗采取行动，那么比特币可能是你唯一能卖出的资产，比特币价格可能会暴跌，我们对此感到担忧。
And if there is a problem in The Middle East, and if The US does something with regard to Iran, then Bitcoin's the only thing you can sell and then Bitcoin price may crash and we're worried about it.
我会说，如果中东发生什么事，比特币可能是你唯一能卖出的资产。
And I'll say, well you know, if something happens in The Middle East, Bitcoin will be the only thing you can sell.
它也会是你唯一能买入的资产。
It'll also be the only thing you can buy.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
因此，这意味着许多在周末想交易的人会把资金转移到加密货币交易所，以便在周五下午4点到周一早上9:30之间，反复进行买入或卖出比特币的操作，最多可达四次。
And so that just means that a lot of people that want to trade on the weekend are transferring capital to crypto exchanges so that they can either buy or sell, or sell buy, sell and buy Bitcoin four times between Friday at 4PM and Monday morning at 09:30AM.
是的，如果你是个交易员，这让你觉得它是什么？
And yeah, if you're a trader, what does that make this?
这使它成为对你而言世界上最有趣的资产。
It makes it the most interesting asset in the world for you.
如果你是个四年期的投资者，这有什么区别呢？
If you're an investor over four years, what the heck difference does it make?
不管这个周末它是否被买卖、买进卖出。
Whether or not it gets bought, sold, bought and sold this weekend.
事实上，这就是它带来的不同。
In fact, here's the difference it makes.
有大量热钱正流入这个生态系统，流入比特币生态，而这些资金原本并不会被配置到这里。
There's capital, hot money that's flowing into this at this ecosystem, into the Bitcoin ecosystem that otherwise would not be allocated.
对吧？
Right?
有一位交易员，手上有200亿美元的资金，他的选择是：要么把钱留在银行里赚取SOFR利率，要么把钱放到加密货币交易所，反复买卖、买卖。
There's there's a trader, someone's got $20,000,000,000 of capital and their choice is they can either leave it in the bank earning SOFR or they can put it into the crypto exchange system and they can buy and sell and buy and sell Mhmm.
也许这个周末他们就能赚到4%。
And maybe they'll make 4% this weekend.
嗯。
Mhmm.
对吧？
Right?
当比特币下跌5%时，有人在买，也有人在卖。
When bitcoin crashes by 5%, there's someone buying while there's someone selling.
所以人们会说，哦，它跌了5%。
So people are like, oh, it fell 5%.
但有人在周日早上4点醒来，以5%的折扣买入。
Well, someone someone woke up at 4AM on a Sunday morning to buy it at a 5% discount.
所以有人在周末赚的钱，可能比他们持有一年传统货币赚得还多。
So someone's going to actually make more money on the weekend than they would make holding holding conventional money for a year.
这些资金并没有流入纽约市的房地产。
And that capital is not flowing in a New York City real estate.
也没有流入黄金。
It is not flowing into gold.
也没有流入传统衍生品。
It is not flowing into conventional derivatives.
也没有流入英伟达股票。
It's not flowing into Nvidia stock.
它也没有流入苹果股票。
It's not flowing into Apple stock.
为什么？
Why?
因为你既不会买入，也不会恐慌性抛售、愤怒离场、再买入、认输，或者在这些波动浪潮中冲进市场。
Because you're not buying and you're not panic selling and rage quitting and buying and capitulating and know, and leaping in to the market on these volatility waves.
比特币之所以最波动，是因为它最有用。
So Bitcoin is most volatile because it's most useful.
你知道，在美国，像Reg T这样的规定限制你不能使用超过两倍的杠杆。
And you know, in The US there's things like Reg T where you can't have more than two x leverage.
我的意思是，我们有法律禁止你使用超过两倍的杠杆。
I mean we have laws that prevent you from going to more than two x leverage.
但在自然界中，并没有这样的规定。
Well, there's no such law, you know, in nature.
对。
Right.
在自然界中，它们可没有这些规定。
You know, in nature, you know, like they don't have those laws.
你看到一只蜈蚣，然后又看到一万只蚂蚁，比例是一万比一，这看起来似乎不太公平。
You see one centipede and then you see 10,000 ants and it's like 10,000 to one and it doesn't seem quite fair.
自然界里根本没有什么公平可言。
There's nothing fair about nature.
如果你想一万只对付一只蜈蚣，那你尽管这么做。
If you wanna gang up 10,000 to one on the centipede, you get to do it.
就像如果你想用50倍杠杆交易比特币，再用它作为抵押去交易另一个10倍杠杆的山寨币，从而构建一个500倍的杠杆系统，你完全可以这么做。
Just like if you wanna trade Bitcoin 50 x and cross collateralize it to another yo yo token which is 10 x and you wanna create a 500 x machine, you can do it.
没人会阻止你这么做。
There's no one stopping you from doing it.
这明智吗？
Is it wise?
好吧，可能一百次里有九十九次都不明智，你会被彻底清零。
Well, maybe 99 out of a 100 times it isn't wise, you get wiped out.
但关键是，如果真是这样，那些做蠢事的人就会被清仓，一年后他们就不会再这么做了，对吧？
But the point is, if that's the case, the people that do stupid things get wiped out and then in a year, they won't be doing it anymore, will they?
是的。
Mhmm.
没错。
Right.
大概那些人在周六早上，根据路透社的新闻，用50倍杠杆跨境做多，并恐慌性抛售比特币的人。
Presumably, the people that are trading with 50 x cross collateralized leverage offshore on Saturday morning in response to a Reuters posting and they're panic selling Bitcoin.
然后到了周日下午，他们发现世界并没有结束。
And then they're like, oh, well, the world didn't end on Sunday afternoon.
于是他们又拼命地买回比特币。
Then they're, you know, they're desperately buying it back.
这些人这么做肯定有他们的理由，而且他们能赚钱，因为如果他们不能赚钱，自由市场早就把他们的资本淘汰了。
Presumably, those people have a reason to do it and they're making money because if they weren't making money, the free market would separate them from their capital.
对吧？
Right?
没有比这更快破产的方式了。
There's no quicker way to go bankrupt.
对吧？
Right?
所以比特币代表了全球资本市场，有些人正在做你不会做、不能做、不愿做、不想做的事情，而他们正是用这种资产在操作，这正是造成波动的原因。
So Bitcoin represents the global capital market and there are people doing things that you can't do, that you could that you won't do, that you don't choose to do, you don't wish to do, and they're doing it with that asset and that's what's creating the volatility.
但这也创造了引力场或磁场，吸引着全世界所有的能量——所有的金融能量、所有的政治能量、所有的数字能量，都被吸引到这个领域中，正是由于它的这种实用性。
But it's also creating the gravitational or the magnetic field which is attracting all of the energy, all the financial energy of the world is being drawn into this space, All of the political energy, you know, all all all of the digital energy, it's all being drawn into this space because of that utility.
我认为你只能接受这一点。
And I think you just got to make your peace with it.
你要么是短期交易者。
Either you're short term and you're a trader.
如果你担心比特币四天、四周或四个月后会怎样，那你就是个交易者。
If you're worried about what Bitcoin's gonna be in four days or four weeks or four months, you're a trader.
承认自己是交易者吧，那你最好拥有交易方法、交易能力，或者从事交易业务，或者进行中性对冲，这样你就不会受其影响。
Call yourself a trader and then you better have trading methodology or or trading excellence or be in the trading business or be, you know, neutrally hedged so it doesn't matter to you.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
你要么是交易者，要么是投资者，你有四年的投资周期，那就根本不用在意。
You're either that or you're an investor, you got a four year time horizon and then it just doesn't matter.
你知道的，你只会想到大量资本正在涌入这个领域，大量关注也正被吸引到这个领域，而这些关注本不会到来，正是因为那些疯狂的交易者。
All, you know, all you'd be thinking is a lot of capital is surging into the space and a lot of attention is being given to the space that otherwise would not be given to the space because of those crazy traders.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
就让他们去做他们的事吧，因为我是个投资者，我打算长期持有。
And let's just let them do their thing because I'm an investor, I'm holding for the long term.
嗯，我非常热衷于赋能普通个人，而比特币目前仍然主要由个人持有。
Well, know, I'm very passionate about empowering the average individual and Bitcoin is still primarily owned by individuals.
但我刚采访了林·奥尔登，她说散户在这次牛市中其实并没有积极参与。
But I just had Lynn Alden on and she said that retail really did not participate in this last bull market.
你认为这是为什么？
Why do you think that is?
那么，是什么会吸引普通散户投资者使用最佳的储蓄技术呢？
And what will bring sort of the average retail investor into the best savings technology?
我认为，那些对数字资本、对比特币充满热情和坚定的散户投资者，他们已经找到了。
I think that the the retail investors that are passionate and and committed to digital capital, to Bitcoin, I think they found it already.
我认为，他们已经有十年时间去发现它了。
I think that I think that they've had ten years to find it.
所以，如果你在寻找一种非主权的、可携带的数字资产，我认为在2010年到2025年之间的某次浪潮中，你已经找到了它。
So if you're looking for a non sovereign store of value, bearer digital asset, I think that sometime between 2010 and 2025, you found it in one of those successive waves.
然后你就尽可能多地买入了。
And then you bought as much as you could possibly afford to buy.
明白吗？
Okay?
这没什么问题。
And that's fine.
我认为，如果你想吸引下一波散户投资者，他们并不想要一个波动率40%、年化回报率40%的资产。
I think that if you want to draw the next cohort of retail investors, they don't want a 40 vol, 40 ARR asset.
他们想要的是类似10波动率、10年化收益的资产，或者零波动率、8%年化收益的资产。
What they want is something more like a 10 vol, 10 ARR asset or a zero vol, eight ARR asset.
所以我认为，吸引广大投资者的方法是提供一种数字信贷产品，比如STRC，我们告诉他们：这里是11%的收益，享受税收递延，我们已经去除了波动性。
So I think that the way that we draw the mass of investors is you offer them something digital credit, like STRC where where we say, here's 11%, it's tax deferred, we're stripping the vol off of it.
STRC的一年期波动率低于纳斯达克指数，低于标普500指数，也低于黄金。
Like the one year volatility of STRC is less than the Nasdaq, is less than the S and P index, it's less than gold.
对吧？
Right?
我会给你一个比传统价值储存工具波动更小的资产，它是一种明确、直接、固定的10%或11%收益，而且每月都能拿到。
I'm gonna give you an asset which is less volatile than conventional stores of value, but it's a but it's kind of a it's a certain, right, straightforward defined 10% or 11% and you get it monthly.
你可以自己验证一下，娜塔莉。
And you can test this yourself, Natalie.
我挑战你去验证一下。
I would challenge you to test it.
走上街头，找一百个人问：你更愿意在未来二十年每年获得30%的收益，但要承受40%的回撤和40的波动率吗？
Walk down the street and find a 100 people and say, would you rather have 30% a year over the next twenty years, but you're gonna get 40% drawdowns and 40 volatility.
它的波动性将是标普指数的三倍。
It'll be three times as volatile as the S and P index.
有些年份你可能赚不到钱，有些年份你却能赚很多，但整体年化收益是30%。
And you know, some years you won't make any money and some years you'll make a lot of money, but it'll be 30%.
还是你更愿意拥有一笔年利率10%的银行账户，可以随时取款，但你只能稳稳地拿到10%的收益？
Or would you rather have a bank account that pays 10%, where you can take your money out whenever you want, but you'll just collect 10% while you're waiting.
现在去问他们，做个调查。
Now ask them, take the survey.
我觉得，如果你问的话，95%的人会想要一个免税的10%银行账户，只有5%的人想要30%的年收益？
I would think, like if you were to say 95% of the market wants a 10% bank account they don't have to pay tax on, And only 5% wants the 30% a year?
嗯。
Mhmm.
我觉得这有点乐观了。
I I think that that's optimistic.
这可能太偏向比特币了。
Like like that's probably too pro Bitcoin.
我不认为有5%的散户投资者愿意持有比特币，以税递延的方式每年获得30%的收益，同时承受比标普指数高出一倍甚至三倍的波动性。
I don't think 5% of retail investors want to hold Bitcoin and collect 30% a year tax deferred with a volatility that's double or triple the S and P.
好的。
Okay.
你可能会发现不同的情况。
You might find differently.
我猜测这个数字可能是12%。
I would I would suspect it's possible that that number is 12%.
对吧？
Right?
因此，绝大多数散户投资者想要的是比债券基金高出两倍、三倍甚至四倍的回报。
So the great mass of the retail investors, they want something which is two x or three x or four x better than a bond fund.
或者他们想要一种看起来像标普指数、但没有标普指数回撤的产品。
Or they want something that looks like the S and P but without the drawdowns of the S and P.
因此，当我们把股票、信贷和加密货币的最佳元素结合起来时，我们将吸引散户投资者进入这个生态系统。
And so we're going to attract retail investors to the ecosystem when we take the best of equity, the best of credit, and the best of crypto, and we put the three together.
那这意味着什么？
So what does that mean?
双重股权意味着两位数的回报和税收递延的收益。
Doubled Equity is double digit returns and tax deferred gains.
信贷具有价格稳定、本金保护、低波动性以及明确的收益，比如稳定一致的现金收入。
Credit is price stability, principal protection and low volatility and and a very defined yield, like defined consistent cash income.
加密货币，比特币，是数字创新，对吧？
Crypto, Bitcoin is digital innovation, right?
变革，以及比传统经济高出两到四倍的生产力，对吧？
Transformation and two, three, four x the productivity of the conventional economy, right?
这是巨大的增长。
It's massive growth.
好的。
Okay.
所以目前，零售投资者不得不在巨大增长和像过山车一样承受九倍重力的波动之间做出选择。
So right now, the retail investor, they have to choose between massive growth and roller coaster that's pulling nine g's.
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对。
Right.
那就是比特币。
That's Bitcoin.
对吧？
Right?
或者他们不得不选择标普或纳斯达克指数，接受50到20的波动率，有好年份也有坏年份。
Or they have to take the S and P or the Nasdaq index and accept 50 to 20 vol with good years and bad years.
但长期来看，年化回报率10%或更高。
But over time, 10% ARR or better.
或者他们不得不接受投资级债券70个基点的信用利差，这意味着他们只能获得4.5%的利息，且全额按普通收入征税。
Or they have to accept a credit spread from an investment grade bond of 70 basis points, which means they're getting four and a half percent interest and it's fully taxable as ordinary income.
所以，你知道，你是加州居民，投资苹果债券税后只能拿到2%的收益。
So, you know, you're you're a California resident, you're either getting 2% on your Apple bonds after tax.
2%。
2%.
但你感觉安全。
But you feel safe.
或者你的标普和纳斯达克投资组合能获得10%到15%的回报，但几乎没有收益，你只是在坐一辆小小的传统过山车。
Or you're getting 10 to 15% on your S and P and Nasdaq portfolio, but you're getting no not much of any yield and you're on you're on a small kind of a conventional roller coaster.
嗯。
Mhmm.
或者你买入比特币，就能体验三倍的过山车之旅。
Or you buy Bitcoin and you're getting three x the roller coaster ride.
你的表现更好，但过去137天里，人们觉得你疯了。
You're getting better performance, but you know, for the last hundred and thirty seven days, people think that you're crazy.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
所以，这就是你的三个选择。
And so those are your three choices.
我认为解决这个长期困境的方法是简单地设计数字信用。
I think that the way that we break that long jam is we simply engineer digital credit.
这正是我过去一年的激情所在。
That's that's why that's been my passion for the past year.
我能否真的将一个45波动率、45阿尔法的资产——也就是比特币——剥离掉80%到90%的波动性，去除80%到99%的风险，然后为你提供一个四到五倍超额抵押的产品？
Can I actually take a 45 vol, 45 AR asset, which is Bitcoin, and strip 80 to 90% of the volatility off it, strip 80 to 990% of the risk off it, and let's give you something four to five times over collateralized?
让我们创造一个两位数的收益率。
Let's create a double digit yield.
我们要以资本返还的方式实现，这样你可以享受税收递延，或获得递延税务处理。
Let's do it in a way that's a return of capital, so you get tax deferred or you get you get deferred tax treatment.
因此，你既能获得股权的收益，又能享有股权的表现，同时拥有信贷或债券的本金保障，获得确定的收益率，并每月以现金形式领取。
So you get the benefits of equity, you get the performance of equity, you get the principal protection of credit or a bond, you get a defined yield, you get paid monthly in cash.
如果你希望再投资，只需将股息重新投入本金，它就会变成一个稳定增长、税收递延的11%资产。
If you wanna reinvest it, you just reinvest the dividends back in the principal and it becomes like a consistent 11% tax deferred growing asset.
当你想退出这个波动周期，比如支付孩子的学费或缴税时，你只需取出资金或卖出即可，对吧？
And when when you wanna get off the roller coaster to pay your kids tuition or pay a tax bill, then you just withdraw your money or you or you sell, right?
为了实现这一点，需要股权支持。
And for that to work, equity.
你不能承受比特币大幅回撤的波动性。
You can't have the volatility of the drawdowns of of Bitcoin.
你需要某种信用工具，以及一个能够超额抵押的发行方。
You need some credit instrument and you need an issuer that's gonna over collateralize it.
你需要主动管理这一工具，以实现价格稳定。
And you need to actively manage instrument so as to create price stability.
因此，我认为STRC或数字信用，在我看来，是我们吸引下一代散户投资者进入这一领域的方式。
And so I I think STRC or digital credit in my opinion is the way that we draw the next cohort of retail investors into the space.
我不明白为什么我们不能吸引10到100倍的用户。
And I I don't know why we couldn't draw 10 to a 100 x as many.
我认为，如果你能找到2%到5%的散户喜欢比特币，他们也不会把全部资金都投入其中。
I I would think, you know, if if two to 4% or two to 5% of retail were able to by the way, if you find 5% of retail that like Bitcoin, they're not gonna allocate 100% of their capital to it.
对吧？
Right?
他们会分配一部分资金。
They're gonna allocate some portion.
所以我认为，如果第一次能吸引2%到4%，那么通过数字信贷，我们有望达到20%到40%。
So I think if we got two to 4% the first go around, I think we'll get to 20 to 40% with digital credit.
我认为这在某种程度上是数字资本的一项关键应用。
And I I think that that is a that that is in a way one of the killer applications of digital capital.
想接受比特币和稳定币支付吗？
Wanna accept Bitcoin and Stablecoin payments?
速度让这一切变得简单。
Speed makes it simple.
客户可以通过应用内二维码、线上或POS机付款。
Customers can pay via QR codes in app, online, or POS.
Speed 帮助 Stake 和 Shake 在全国范围内接受比特币支付。
Speed helped Stake and Shake accept Bitcoin nationwide.
正如首席运营官丹·爱德华兹所说
As COO Dan Edwards says
客户选择使用比特币而非信用卡支付。
Customers choose to pay in Bitcoin instead of credit cards.
我们节省了大约50%的处理费用。
We, are saving about 50% in our processing fees.
这带来了更多比特币用户的支持，并实现了10%的收入增长。
This led to more support from Bitcoin users and a 10% revenue boost.
开始使用非常简单。
Getting started is easy.
请在 tryspeed.com 注册，或几小时内集成 API。
Sign up at tryspeed.com or integrate the API in hours.
今天就开始接受比特币支付。
Start accepting Bitcoin today.
前往 speed.app/coinstories 下载 Speed 应用，或扫描屏幕上的二维码，使用代码 coin stories 10 获取 5,000 个免费 sats。
Download speed at speed.app/coinstories or the QR code on the screen and use code coin stories 10 for 5,000 free sats.
如果你已经听了一段时间，可能已经听过我们谈论 BitKey。
If you've been listening for a while, you've probably heard us talk about BitKey.
BitKey 是一个私有多重签名钱包，它消除了传统自托管中最大的故障点——助记词。
BitKey is a private multisig wallet that removes the biggest point of failure in traditional self custody, the seed phrase.
东西会丢失。
Things get lost.
手机会更换。
Phones get replaced.
生活总会发生意外。
Life happens.
对吧？
Right?
BitKey 的设计确保你的比特币安全且可恢复，而无需你时刻关注或具备专业知识。
BitKey is designed so your Bitcoin stays secure and recoverable without demanding constant attention or expertise.
仅在二月，CoinStories 的听众可以使用代码 stories 99 在 bitkey.world 以 99 美元的价格购买 BitKey。
And for February only, CoinStories listeners can get BitKey for $99 using code stories 99 at bitkey.world.
接下来是比特币之道。
Up next, the Bitcoin Way.
保护你的比特币免受政府、政客和第三方风险的唯一方式，就是100%的自我托管。
There's only one way to protect your Bitcoin from government, politicians, and third party risk, and that is 100% self custody.
我的朋友们在Bitcoin Way会教你如何第一次就正确地做到这一点。
My friends at the Bitcoin Way will train you how to do this the right way the first time.
毫不妥协。
No compromises.
前往bitcoinway.com/natalie，与专家沟通，确保你的比特币安全且私密。
Go to the bitcoinway.com/natalie to speak with the experts about making sure your Bitcoin is secure and private.
我希望在2026年拉斯维加斯的比特币大会上见到你们所有人。
I hope to see all of you in Las Vegas for Bitcoin twenty twenty six.
我们将举办一场特别的晚间派对，庆祝女性比特币社区成立五周年，我还会在比特币集市上签售《比特币属于每个人》。
We'll be celebrating five years of women of Bitcoin with a special evening bash, and I'll be signing copies of Bitcoin is for everyone at the Bitcoin Bazaar.
使用代码HODL可享受折扣票价，四月见。
Use code HODL for discounted passes and I will see you this April.
最后，Bitcoin IRA。
Finally, Bitcoin IRA.
通过比特币IRA，您可以在税收优惠的IRA账户中投资比特币，价格为24.07美元。
With Bitcoin IRA, you can invest in Bitcoin $24.07 inside a tax advantaged IRA.
选择传统IRA以延迟缴税，或选择罗斯IRA，在退休时享受免税提款。
Choose a traditional IRA to defer taxes or a Roth IRA for tax free withdrawals when you retire.
用比特币IRA掌控您的未来。
Take control of your future with Bitcoin IRA.
前往 bitcoinira.com/natalie，获取最高1000美元的充值奖励。
Head to bitcoinira.com/natalie for up to a $1,000 funding bonus.
在您发行的所有优先工具中，看起来您对Stretch最感兴趣，并且您更多地使用它来积累比特币。
Out of all the preferreds you've issued, it seems like you're most excited about Stretch and you've been using it more in order to accumulate Bitcoin.
这背后有什么策略吗？
Is there a strategy behind that?
是的。
Yeah.
如果您看看所有的信贷工具，我们到底在做什么？
If you if you look at all the credit instruments, you know, what are we doing?
我们正在剥离比特币的波动性，提取收益，消除货币风险和资本风险。
We're stripping volatility off of Bitcoin and extracting yield and eliminating currency risk and and eliminating capital risk.
过去一年，比特币的波动率大约是45。
So Bitcoin is like 45 vol over the past year.
通过Strike，我们将其降低到了大约38。
With Strike, we managed to get that down to like 38.
通过Stride和Strife，我们将其降至二十出头。
With Stride and Strife, we got it into the mid twenties.
通过Stretch，我们将其降至十几点，甚至有一段时间低到了个位数。
With stretch, we got it down into the teens or the low teens, even for a while down into the single digits.
而我们剥离出的全部波动性都流入了MSTR普通股，其波动率为80。
And and then all that volatility we stripped off then flows into MSTR, the common equity, which is 80.
因此，我们所从事的是波动性工程。
So what we're engaged in is volatility engineering.
如果你问普通人，你想让银行账户给你10%的收益，还是想让三十年期债券给你12%？
And if you ask if you ask the average person, right, do you want a bank account to pay you 10% or do you want a thirty year bond to pay you 12?
但你得等上三十年。
And but you got to wait thirty years.
大多数人只想要10%的收益。
Well, most people just want the 10%.
他们不想要，比如，即使波动率翻倍，也只是多拿2%。
They don't want, like, they don't want an extra 2% if the volatility doubles.
你是想要24的波动率和12%的收益吗？
Like, do you want 24 vol and 12?
还是想要10%的收益、10的波动率和10%的回报？
Or do you want 10% 10 vol and 10?
大多数人真正想要的，其实就是10%的收益和零波动率。
Most people just want the truth is what they want is they want ten percent and zero vol.
是的。
Mhmm.
我想要零波动率、零期限。
I want zero volatility, zero duration.
给我双倍或三倍的货币市场收益，或者四倍的货币市场收益。
Give me double or triple the money market or quadruple the money market.
所以，你可能会想得太复杂，但如果我们看看我们所有的信贷实验，我们已经做了将近20种不同的固定收益交易。
So, you can overthink this, but if you look at all of all of our credit experiments, so we've done, I don't know, almost 20 different fixed income deals.
好的。
Okay.
我们做过有EBITDA契约的高级信贷，但那无法规模化，所以从列表中划掉。
We we did senior credit, you know, with EBITDA covenants and that was not scalable, so x that off the list.
然后我们和Silvergate做了以比特币为抵押的贷款，但这带来了太多的抵押覆盖风险和追加保证金风险，所以也划掉。
Then we did a Bitcoin backed loan with Silvergate, but that creates too much, you know, collateral coverage risk and margin call risk, so x that off.
接着我们做了很多可转换债券，但它们都是144A发行，意味着散户是不能购买的。
And then we did convertible bonds, many of them, but they're all one forty four a offerings, which means it's illegal for retail to buy them.
对吧？
Right?
我们当然可以给这头猪涂口红，说哦，这是1.44美元，是场外交易，等等。
We can we can, you know, try to put lipstick on the pig and say, oh, it's $1.44, it's over the counter, whatever.
让我来解释一下。
Let me translate it.
这是一个流动性很差的市场，只有大约两到三十个参与者，而且你购买它是违法的。
It's a it's an illiquid market with about two or three dozen participants and it's illegal for you to buy it.
对于普通人来说，创造一个他们无法合法购买的产品，这怎么可能是好主意呢？
How is it in any sense a good idea to create a product that's illegal for normal people to buy?
对。
Right.
这太蠢了。
That's stupid.
好的。
Okay.
所以把这个从列表中划掉。
So x that off the list.
对吧？
Right?
顺便说一下，所有这些资产的抵押率都是10倍、20倍以上。
All the By way, all those things are 10 x, 20 x over collateralized.
它们的交易表现就像三重垃圾债。
They trade like triple junk.
好的。
Okay.
所以市场已经崩溃了。
So the market's broken.
对。
Right.
就像市场已经崩溃了。
Like the market's broken.
一只每1美元负债对应70美元抵押品的债券，其信用利差却像一家即将破产的垃圾公司一样。
A bond that's got $70 of collateral for every $1 of liability trades with a credit spread like a going out of business junk company.
这简直太荒谬了。
It's like, it's broken.
为什么会这样？
Why is it broken?
市场已经崩溃了。
The market's broken.
你根本买不到。
You can't buy it.
这是场外交易。
It's over the counter.
什么是场外交易？
What is over the counter?
就像有16个人在后巷聚在一起互相交易，只有一个家伙在报买价和卖价，价差高达300个基点。
It's like 16 people get together in a back alley to trade with each other and there's one dude making the market with a bid ask spread of 300 basis points.
他们每周五下午四点到五点碰头，我们把这种交易叫做144a场外交易。
And they meet, you know, on Friday afternoon from four to five in the afternoon and we call that one forty four a over the counter.
这是一个缺乏流动性、崩溃的、不透明的、瘫痪的市场。
It's it's an illiquid, broken, non transparent, crippled market.
好吧？
Okay?
让它消失。
Make that go away.
所以，在你经历了这一切之后，你现在开始想，我该怎么让它上市呢？
So after you've gone to all that, now you start to think about, well, how do I take it public?
把债券上市完全没有意义。
Well, it makes no sense to take a bond public.
比如，发行一个五年期债券，然后把它作为上市公司来挂牌，这毫无道理。
Like selling a five year bond and then taking it public as a listing makes no sense.
为什么？
Why?
因为四年之后，这个债券只剩下一年的期限了。
Well, because in four years, the bond's only got twelve months left.
它不是永久性的工具。
It's not a perpetual instrument.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
明白？
Okay?
这意味着你有了这种逐渐衰减。
So that means that you've got this faded decay.
你拥有的是债券价值的衰减，因为当然在某个时候它只剩下三十天的有效寿命。
You've got a decay in the value of the bond because of course at some point it's only gonna have thirty day useful life.
你为什么要创建一个最终会消亡的公开证券？
Why would you create a public security that eventually dies?
这太蠢了。
That's stupid.
对吧？
Right?
这简直可笑。
It's like silly.
所以你必须创建一种永久性工具来将其公开上市。
So you have to create a perpetual instrument to take it public.
因此，优先股。
Ergo, preferred stock.
所以我们基本上认为，我们会创建一种永久性优先股，然后我们一开始做了最直接的事情，要么支付10%的股息，要么支付8%并设定转换率。
So then we we basically think, we'll create a perpetual preferred stock and then we started by doing the straightforward thing, we'll just pay a 10% dividend or we'll pay 8% with a conversion rate.
所以这两种想法是：固定利率和转换条款。
So those were two ideas, strike and strife.
它们非常成功，比其他所有优先股都成功了十倍。
And they were very successful, they were 10 x more successful than all the other preferreds.
我们学到了很多，但后来我们意识到，人们不想要期限，也不想要复杂性。
And we learned a lot, but then what we realized is people don't want duration and they don't want complexity.
那么，你该如何评估可转换优先股的价值？
So how do you value a convertible preferred stock?
对人们来说，这实在太复杂了，难以理解。
It's just too complicated for people to figure out.
好的。
Okay.
一只永续收益10%的10%优先股，其期限是多久？
What what is the duration of of a 10% preferred that yields 10% forever?
你可以计算麦考利久期，这是一个理论上的概念。
Well, you can come you can calculate the Macaulay duration, it's a theoretical construct.
当它以平价交易时，计算结果大约是十年。
It it works out to be about ten years when it's trading at par.
所以它就像一个十年期久期的工具。
So it's like a ten year duration instrument.
这和十五到十八年的政府债券差不多。
That's the same as like a fifteen, eighteen year government bond.
纳塔莉，你跟得上这里的债券计算吗？
You following the bond math here, Natalie?
这有点复杂的债券计算，对吧？
It's kind of complicated bond math, right?
如果一只债券的久期为10，那就意味着当利率下降100个基点时，该债券的价格应上涨10%。
If the bond has a 10 duration, then that means when interest rates fall 100 basis points, the bonds should trade up 10%.
有多少零售投资者理解这一点？
How many retail investors understand that?
没多少。
Not many.
没多少，对吧？
Not many, right?
债券的久期计算很复杂，但让我告诉你它的问题在哪里。
Duration math on a bond is complicated but but let me tell you what the problem with it is.
如果我的债券久期是10，而远期利率预期下降100个基点，那么本金价格应上涨10%。
If I have a duration of 10 and and the forward interest rate expectation falls a 100 basis point, the the principal should trade up 10%.
但当远期利率上升50个基点时，债券价格就会下跌5%。
But when the forward interest rate falls fifth or goes up 50 basis points, the bond falls 5%.
这意味着每当杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表演讲时，一只久期为10的工具的理论价值就会上下波动10%。
So that means every time Jerome Powell is giving a speech, the theoretical value of a 10 duration instrument is moving plus or minus 10%.
有多少散户希望在美联储新闻发布会期间，自己的资产波动正负10%？
How many retail people want their assets to fall plus or minus 10% during a Fed press conference?
你知道，当感知到的风险上升时，比如比特币下跌，抵押品的理论价值也会下降。
You know, when the perceived risk, like if Bitcoin falls, the theoretical value of the collateral falls.
所以这另一种说法是，长期限工具具有很高的波动性。
So it's another way of saying that a long duration instrument has a lot of volatility.
好的。
Okay.
所以我给你10%而不是3%。
So I'm gonna give you 10% instead of three.
但该证券在未来三个月内可能下跌20%或10%。
But the but the per the security might fall 20% or 10% over the next three months.
这就是我们创造的东西，娜塔莉。
That's what we created, Natalie.
好的。
Okay.
谁想要这样？
Who wants that?
顺便说一下，这对信贷投资者来说简直是全垒打。
By by the way, it's a screaming home run for a credit investor.
例如，如果你认为SOFR将下降150个基点，并且你相信比特币不会归零，而是会横盘整理或上涨10%，那么像STRF、STRD或STRK这样的工具，其理论信用利差将降至100个基点或50个基点。
For example, if you think that SOFR is going to fall a 150 basis points, and if you believe that Bitcoin is not going to zero, but it's gonna trade sideways or it's gonna appreciate 10%, The theoretical credit spread on something like STRF or STRD or STRK, the theoretical credit spread falls to a 100 basis points or 50 basis points.
目前，你正在获得六百、七百、八百甚至九百个基点的收益。
Right now, you're getting six, seven, eight, nine hundred basis points.
这意味着什么？
What does that mean?
这意味着，如果你真的相信比特币，并且认为利率正在下降，而这家公司被误解了，你将以100美元的价格买入该工具，而它最终会涨到2.50美元。
That means if you actually believe in Bitcoin and you think interest rates are falling and the company's misunderstood, you're going to buy that instrument at a $100 and it's going to trade at $2.50.
别盯着你的眼睛看。
Not look at your eyes.
你会以80美元的价格买入行权价，然后它涨到1.60美元吗？
Are you going to buy strike at 80 and it's going to trade to $1.60?
因为这是一个长期限的工具。
Because it's a long duration instrument.
好的。
Okay.
那么，一个当前市场信用利差为900个基点、但理论上应以300个基点定价的工具，其理论价值是多少？
What's, you know, what's the theoretical value of an instrument that's currently trading with a market credit spread of 900 basis points that should be valued with a credit spread of 300 basis points?
对吧？
Right?
它应该涨到100、200、300、400。
It should trade up to the hundred, two hundred, 300, 400.
那么，谁想要这种长期限的信用工具呢？
So who wants the long duration credit instrument?
这需要一个真正有长远眼光、看多比特币的人。
It's someone that actually has a long view, a pro Bitcoin view.
是的。
Mhmm.
如果比特币根据巴塞尔协议被重新评定为抵押品，如果银行开始托管它，对吧？
If if Bitcoin is re rated as collateral by the Basel, under the Basel rules, rules, if banks start to custody it, right?
如果信用评级机构对这些工具进行评级，那么这些长期信用工具就有可能实现翻倍甚至三倍的资本增值。
If the credit if the credit rating agencies rate these things, then those long duration credit instruments have a capital gain potential of doubling or tripling.
哇。
Wow.
明白吗？
Okay?
但你有没有考虑过SOFR？
But it's like, well, do you think about SOFR?
你对远期收益率曲线怎么看？
What do you think about the forward yield curve?
你对信用评级机构怎么看？
What do you think about the credit rating agencies?
你对比特币的未来怎么看？
What do you think about the future of Bitcoin?
所以这是一个有趣的投资，但你注意到我花多长时间才讲到它了吗？
So that is an interesting investment, But notice how long it took me to talk about it?
好的。
Okay.
很难理解。
It's hard to understand.
是的。
Yeah.
现在，我们来看看零售领域。
Now, let's move to retail.
我想要什么？
What do I want?
我想把钱存进银行。
I wanna put my money in a bank.
我希望他们给我支付10%的利息。
I want them to pay me 10%.
我不希望政府对它征税。
I don't want the government to tax it.
好的。
Okay.
那段对话持续了多久？
How long was that conversation?
大概十二秒吧？
That was like twelve seconds?
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
好的。
Okay.
那如果利率下降了呢？
Well, what if the what if interest rates fall?
这没关系。
It doesn't matter.
如果公司的信用评级上升或下降呢？
What if the credit of the company improves or falls?
这无关紧要。
It doesn't matter.
如果比特币涨到四倍呢？
Well, what if Bitcoin quadruples?
这无关紧要。
Doesn't matter.
如果比特币减半呢？
What if Bitcoin gets cut in half?
这无关紧要。
Doesn't matter.
什么才是重要的？
What matters?
嗯，我正在获得4%或者三点五 percent的收益，而且这是要缴税的，你知道的，政府拿走一半。
Well, I'm getting paid 4% or four three and a half percent and it's taxable and, you know, and the government keeps half.
所以我投资货币市场能获得180个基点的收益，或者拿到11.25%的回报，而且政府还不征税。
So I'm getting a 180 basis points on my money market or I'm getting 11.25% and the government doesn't tax it.
我还需要知道别的吗？
Do I need to know anything else?
其实不用。
Not really.
好吧。
Okay.
那风险是什么？
Well, what's the risk?
比特币可能会永远归零。
Well, Bitcoin might go to zero forever.
好吧。
Okay.
所以你面临的是比特币的生存风险。
So you've got existential risk to Bitcoin.
对吧？
Right?
然后你就得信任这家公司的战略。
And then you have to trust this company strategy.
好的。
Okay.
那么，他们有多少资本？
Well, how much capital do they have?
是的。
Yeah.
我们刚刚筹集了90亿美元来支持你的信用工具。
Well, we just went and raised $9,000,000,000 to support your credit instrument.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
如果有必要，我们每周将筹集十亿美元。
We'll sell We will raise a billion dollars a week if necessary.
对吧？
Right?
那他们怎么说？
Well, what did they say?
他们说他们目标是100美元。
They said they said they're targeting a $100.
如果它无法以100美元交易，他们会怎么做？
What are they going to do if it doesn't trade at a $100?
他们会提高股息。
They're going raise the dividend.
对吧？
Right?
他们做过吗？
Have they done that?
是的。
Yeah.
五次。
Five times.
好的。
Okay.
那我们为什么专注于STRC呢？
So why are we focused on STRC?
因为归根结底，有一个300万亿美元的信贷市场，这个300万亿美元的信贷市场每年收取400到500个基点的收益，而且全部都是应税的。
Well, because at the end of the day, there's a $300,000,000,000,000 credit market and that $300,000,000,000,000 credit market is collecting four to 500 basis points and it's all taxable.
而要达到450或500个基点的收益，你必须承担垃圾债券的信用风险，必须承担投资级公司的信用风险，还必须接受私人信贷的流动性不足风险。
And in order to get to 450 or 500 basis points, you have to accept credit risk of a junk bond, you have to accept the credit risk of an investment grade company, you have to accept the illiquidity of private credit.
蓝猫目前正成为新闻焦点。
The blue owl is currently in the news right now.
他们暂停了赎回，人们都在担心：如果我再也取不出钱怎么办？
They suspended redemptions and people are freaking out over, well, what if I can't get my money out again?
所以你要么接受流动性不足的风险，要么接受流动性风险，要么接受信用风险，要么接受期限风险。
So you're either ex accepting illiquidity or liquidity risk or you're accepting credit risk or you're accepting duration risk.
我持有谷歌发行的百年债券，你知道的。
I'm holding, you know, Google just sold a hundred year bond.
你需要等上一百年才能拿回你的钱。
You have to wait a hundred years to get your money back.
谁买了这个？
Who bought that?
他们为什么要买这个？
Why did they buy that?
好吧。
Okay.
所以是期限、信用、流动性，对吧？还有汇率风险，对吧？
So duration, credit, liquidity, right, and then currency risk, right?
你可能不得不接受某种货币的收益率更高一些。
You might have to accept, you know, you might get a higher yield than a certain currency.
然后你还在承担对美元本身的货币风险。
And then you're accepting the currency risk to the dollar itself.
为了获得回报，你承担了所有这些风险，那你到底得到了什么？
You're accepting all those risks in order to get, what do you get?
对于投资级债券，你只能获得70个基点的利差。
You get a 70 basis point spread for investment grade.
如果你购买微软或苹果的债券，你比购买美国政府债券多获得70个基点的收益。
You get 70 basis points more than the US government would pay you if you buy a bond from Microsoft or Apple.
如果你购买垃圾债券，你则能获得275个基点的收益。
Or you get 275 basis points if you buy a junk bond.
对吧？
Right?
如果你投资于私募信贷，可能获得350个基点的收益，但这种投资是缺乏流动性的，资金投向由成千上万页复杂合同组成的非标准化私营企业组合，结果可能对你有利，也可能不利。
Or you get maybe 350 basis points if you buy private credit, which is illiquid, which is invested in a heterogeneous portfolio of private companies with 10,000 pages of like complicated contracts that may or may not work out for you.
明白吗？
Okay?
这就是信贷市场。
So that is the credit market.
现在问一个问题，对吧？
Now ask the question, right?
你是个人投资者。
You're the retail investor.
你想要利率风险吗？
Do you want duration risk?
不需要。
No.
你想要货币风险吗？
Do you want currency risk?
不需要。
No.
你想要信用风险吗？
You want credit risk?
不要。
No.
你希望能够拿回你的钱吗？
Do you want do you want to be able to get your money back?
是的。
Yeah.
你希望有波动性吗？
Do you want volatility?
不要。
No.
你想要什么？
What do you want?
给我比货币市场多两到四倍的收益。
Give me two to four times more than the money market.
我不想为此缴税。
I And don't want to pay tax on it.
对吧？
Right?
我想要好的税务待遇。
I want tax I want I want good tax treatment.
我想要和持有长期投资时相同的递延资本利得税待遇。
I want the same deferred capital gains tax treatment that I get from holding a long term investment.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
所以给我公平的税务待遇，让我能够长期复利增长我的资产和投资。
So give me a fair tax treatment so I can compound my assets and my investments over time.
给我一些稳定性，去掉所有其他无关的东西。
Give me some stability and strip away all these other things.
所以这告诉我们，在我们旅程的终点，我们意识到根本没有必要创建债券类信贷，因为债券总是短暂的、低效的、流动性差的，并且始终按普通收入征税。
So what what that tells us is is strategy at the end of our journey, we realize that there's no point in creating bond type credit because a a bond's always going to be short lived, inefficient, illiquid, and it's always always going to be fully ordinary income taxable.
所以它既税务低效，又市场低效。
So it's it's tax inefficient, it's market inefficient.
这么做毫无意义。
No point in doing it.
这对投资者没有好处。
It's not a benefit to the investor.
不，你知道，这些长期限的工具是给专业投资者用的。
No, you know, these longer duration instruments, they're for professional investors.
如果你是一个有十年投资期限的信贷投资者，并且对比特币和美联储有自己的看法，那么购买我们长期限的信贷工具，你有可能将资金翻倍。
If you're a credit investor with a ten year horizon and you have an opinion on Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve, you could double your money by buying one of our long dated credit instruments.
这对你来说是个好主意吗？
Is it a good idea for you?
当然。
Absolutely.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，你可以用一个信贷工具连续一百年获得12%的收益，如果信贷利差收窄，你的资金可能会翻两倍甚至三倍。
It's a you know, you can you can collect 12% for a hundred years on a credit instrument and if the credit spreads compress, you'll double or triple your money.
但退休人员，比如75岁的空军总军士长，他们并不想要这个。
But retirees, right, 75 year old retired chief master sergeants in the air force, they don't want that.
对吧？
Right?
我想我要说的最后一点是，在这个过程中，我们不断迭代。
And I guess the last point I'll make is in this journey, we kept iterating.
我们想，不如去掉高级债券的缺陷吧。
We're like, well, let's get rid of the defects of senior bonds.
去掉资产支持债券的缺陷吧。
Let's get rid of the defects of asset backed bonds.
去掉可转换债券的缺陷吧。
Let's get rid of the defects of convertible bonds.
去掉永续优先股的缺陷吧。
Let's get rid of the defects of of perpetual preferreds.
然后人们就说，你知道的，我能每个月拿到钱吗？
And then people were like, well, you know, can I just have the money monthly?
你知道吗，他们到底想要什么？
You know, it's like, what do they want?
他们想要稳定。
They want stability.
给我一个稳定的价格。
Give me a stable price.
给我每月的现金收入。
Give me monthly cash income.
顺便问一下，为什么是每月？
Why monthly by the way?
因为我们没法做到每周或每天。
Cause we couldn't do weekly or daily.
如果纳斯达克或传统市场支持每日或每小时，我们早就这么做了。
Like if the Nasdaq or the conventional market supported daily or hourly, we'd be doing that.
这是加密企业家可以实现的一个升级。
That is a that's an upgrade that a crypto entrepreneur can put in.
你可以创建一种稳定币或储蓄币，比如一个美元代币之类的，让你实际上能每小时或每天流式传输股息。
You you can create a stable coin or a savings a savings coin, maybe like a buck token or something like that, where maybe you'll actually stream the dividend hourly or stream it daily.
对吧？
Right?
这很有趣。
And that's interesting.
只是我们无法在纳斯达克上市的优先股这种框架内高效地实现这一点。
It's just we couldn't do it in in the container of a Nasdaq listed preferred security efficiently.
所以我们创造了最高效的固定收益流。
So we created the most efficient stream of fixed income.
我们创造了最节税的固定收益流。
We created the most tax efficient stream of fixed income.
我们创造了最简单的可能的金融工具。
We created the simple simplest possible instrument.
而公司这五年的历程，就是将比特币作为数字资本。
And the five year journey for the company is, this is Bitcoin as digital capital.
花上一千个小时，你就会同意我的观点，但你仍然得面对高达45%的剧烈回撤，而且在某些时期，每个人都会讨厌你、嘲笑你。
Spend a thousand hours and you'll agree with me, but you'll still have to deal with brutal 45% drawdowns and you know, for some periods everyone's going to hate and make fun of you.
对吧？
Right?
另一方面，我会花数百个小时来解释为什么比特币是经济自由、赋权、金融主权，是数字能源的突破，也是货币史上最重要的发明。
That's one extreme and the other and I'll spend hundreds of hours to explain why Bitcoin is economic freedom and empowerment and financial sovereignty and a breakthrough in digital energy and the greatest thing in the history of money.
在我解释完这些之后，95%的传统投资者依然不会真正理解，而像沃伦·巴菲特、卡尔·伊坎这样的人，他们可能也不会带着几百亿甚至上千亿美元的资金加入这趟列车，对吧？
And after I've done that, 95% of conventional investors still won't quite understand it and the Warren Buffets and the Carl Icons of the world, they probably won't necessarily jump on that freight train with 10 or 20 or $50,000,000,000 in their capital, right?
这是极端的一面。
That's one extreme.
另一端是，你想要一个能给你11%回报且税款递延的银行账户吗？
The other extreme is, you know, would you like a bank account to pay you 11% that's tax deferred?
S T R C。
S T R C.
好的。
Okay.
那可是花了上千个小时。
That was a that was a that was a thousand hours.
这只需要十秒钟。
This is ten seconds.
好的。
Okay.
所以归根结底，我意识到了一件事。
So you at the end of the day, here's what I realized.
对吧？
Right?
这个世界并不希望你写上一万页的历史来解释正在发生的事。
The world doesn't want you to write 10,000 pages of history to explain what's going on.
他们没时间读十页，更别提花上千小时去读完全部内容。
They don't have time to read 10 they don't have a thousand hours to read it all.
明白吗？
Okay?
世界并不想要那样。
The world doesn't want that.
世界并不一定需要花一百五十个小时来解释为什么他们应该登上加密过山车，体验其中的兴奋、低谷以及忍受其中的毒性。
The world doesn't necessarily want a hundred and fifty hours of explaining why they should get on the crypto roller coaster and accept exhilaration, you know, and beat downs and everything in the middle and endure the toxicity.
世界只想要答案。
The world just wants the answer.
他们甚至不想在十秒钟内得到答案。
And they don't want the answer even in ten seconds.
他们想要的是产品。
They want the product.
他们想要的是iPhone。
They want the iPhone.
对吧？
Right?
所以我想要空调。
So I want air conditioning.
就像我们之前讨论的，你想想，你每天花多少时间去思考你喝的水、凉爽的空气或者电灯呢？
It's like we were talking about, you know, like how much time do you spend thinking about the water you drink or the cool air or the electric light.
就好像有人直接给了我一样。
It's like someone just gave it to me.
我会去想它吗？
Do I think about it?
完全不会。
Not at all.
我喜欢它吗？
Do I like it?
是的。
Yeah.
给我一颗药片。
Give me a pill.
我每天吃一次。
I take it once a day.
我不知道你是怎么制造它的。
I don't know how you manufacture it.
它让我的问题消失了。
It makes my problem go away.
在这种情况下，你知道，世界上最棒的产品，就好像我能对你施个咒语，娜塔莉，你会变得快乐、不可摧毁、永生，拥有全知、全能，永远不再有任何匮乏，每个人都爱你、赞同你。
And in this case, you know, the greatest product in the world, it's like like if I could cast a spell on you, Natalie, you'll be happy and indestructible and immortal and have, you know, omniscience and you'll be omnipotent and all powerful and you'll never want for anything ever again and everyone will love you and agree with you.
那需要多长时间？
Well, how long that's gonna take?
五秒钟？
Five seconds?
好吧。
Okay.
那算我一个。
Well, sign me up.
是的。
Yeah.
把那个给我。
Give me that.
就把那个给我。
Just give me that.
STRC是什么？
What what is STRC?
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
你买了它，它会给你支付十到十一次。
You buy it, it pays you ten and eleven.
它会给你双位数的股息。
It pays you double digit dividend.
它是税收递延的。
It's tax deferred.
如果你把它留给你的继承人，那么计税基础会再次上调。
If you give it to your heirs, then the basis steps up again.
所以你可以十年不缴税地领取股息，然后他们也可以十年不缴税地领取股息。
And so you can collect dividends for ten years without paying tax, and then they can collect dividends for ten years and not without paying tax.
那我需要担心什么？
And what do I have to worry about?
什么都不用担心。
Nothing.
好的。
Okay.
这正是你想要的，你知道的。
That's what you want, you know.
你想要可口可乐的，你想要美国航空的，你想要波音的，你想要苹果的，你想要任何公司的，都是这个。
That's what you want from Coca Cola, that's what you want from American Airlines, that's what you want from Boeing, that's what you want from Apple, that's what you want from whatever.
就直接给我解决方案吧。
Just just give me the solution.
你知道吗，有多少人愿意花一万小时学习石油化工工程，然后在自家后院建一座炼油厂？
And, you know, like how many people want to study petrochemical engineering for ten thousand hours and then set up their own oil refinery in in their backyard?
这就像他们自己的核反应堆？
It's like or their own nuclear reactor?
没人。
Nobody.
对。
Right.
有多少人想要永远免费的无限电力？
How many people want infinite free electricity forever?
人人都想要。
Everybody.
就像这个价值，对吧？商业化就是把技术包装成简单、直接的东西，然后交给公众。
It's like the the value, right, the commercialization is take the technology, put it into a package that is simple, that's straightforward, give it to the public.
你知道的，就像，好吧。
You know, it's like, well, okay.
但我们得相信你。
But we're gonna have to trust you.
是的。
Yeah.
就像你得信任家乐氏麦片，得信任卡夫番茄酱，就像你得信任那个，你知道他们叫什么吗？
Like you had to trust Kellogg cereal, like you had to trust Kraft ketchup, like you have to trust stand you know what they called it?
标准石油？
Standard oil?
因为那是不会在灯里着火、也不会堵塞发动机的油，因为它经过了标准化。
Because it was the the oil that didn't catch fire in the lamp or or didn't clog the engine because it was standardized.
它的纯度和质量始终如一。
It was it was always the same purity, the same quality.
这番茄酱到底是什么？
It's it's like, what is this ketchup?
这种番茄酱，如果你真的把它涂在食物上，也不会让你得病。
This is the ketchup where if you actually put it on your food, it doesn't give you disease.
它不会让你食物中毒。
It doesn't give you food poisoning.
就像安全一样。
It's like safe.
对吧？
Right?
那么，消费者信任公司提供他们赖以生存和热爱的产品，是否有先例呢？
And so, is there a precedent for consumers trusting companies to give them things that they live that they love?
是的。
Yeah.
杜邦公司的口号是：化学创造更美好的生活。
DuPont's slogan, better living through chemistry.
当化学变得政治不正确时，就变成了通过科技创造更美好的生活，对吧？
And when chemistry became politically incorrect, it became better living through technology, right?
就像，你知道的，我们总是拿这些开玩笑，但接着你就会发现，还有聚酯纤维、莱卡、尼龙，还有这些石油化学产品，结果我们正是用它们建起了这个世界。
It's like, you know, it's like we make fun of all that and then you're like, well, and then there's polyester and there's lycra and there's nylon and there and, you know, and there's all the all these petrochemical products and turns out we built the world with them.
所以我觉得比特币正在成熟，我们正从早期采用者、爱好者阶段过渡，还记得以前人们像无线电爱好者那样，他们在后院装个天线，在车间里摆一套业余无线电设备吗？
And so I I think that Bitcoin is growing up and we're moving from the early adopters, the hobbyists, the remember it used to be people like radio, they're like ham radio operators and they have a little antenna in their backyard and they have a ham radio set up in their workshop.
他们会研究信号系统，研究物理学，组建俱乐部，然后回到自己的工作间，通过无线电网络进行广播，人们觉得这太棒了。
And they would study the semaphores and they would study the the physics and and they would form clubs and then they would get into their workshop and then they would broadcast, you know, over the radio network and people thought that was just great.
然后最终，六岁的小孩手里都拿着手机，再也没人玩业余无线电了。
And and then eventually, you got to the point where six year olds have a mobile phone in their hand and like no one does ham radio anymore.
对吧？
Right?
就像那样，但这个行业当初就是这样起步的，那时候你必须非常精通技术。
Like that But that's how the industry started and it used to be that you had to be a you had to be very technically astute
对。
Right.
才能参与其中。
In order to participate.
我们是怎么让无线电实现商业化的？
And how did we commercialize radio?
我们把六十亿部移动设备交到青少年手中，然后给了他们TikTok。
We we put 6,000,000,000 mobile devices into the hands of teenagers and we gave them TikTok.
这就是我们如何将无线电商业化的方式。
And that's how we commercialized radio.
我们做得太成功了，以至于现在不得不立法来阻止人们使用无线电。
And we were so good at it that now we have to actually pass laws to stop people from using the radio.
现在我们反而对人们花太多时间玩无线电感到不满。
Like now now we're upset that they spend too much time playing with their radio.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我认为比特币也会经历同样的转变。
And I think that Bitcoin will go through the same transition.
我们会从爱好者、意识形态者和技术愿景家，逐渐过渡到一个80亿人都把数字资产、数字资本全部放在手机上的时代。
We'll go from hobbyist and ideologues and technology visionaries to eventually a point where 8,000,000,000 people, they just have the digital assets, the digital capital, it's all on their phone.
哦，是的，我们就只是把它转来转去。
It's oh yeah, well we just move it around.
但我们转的是储蓄币、稳定币、证券，你知道的，一种加密资产。
But we move it around in a savings coin, a stable coin, a security, you know, a crypto asset.
就像
It's like
是的
Yeah.
大多数人并不理解互联网是如何工作的，但他们每天都使用它。
Well, most people don't understand how the internet works, but they obviously use it every day.
他们不明白iPhone是如何制造的，但他们一直在使用。
They don't understand how their iPhone is put together, but they use it.
就像你提到的那段视频，你拿着iPhone说每个人都想要这个。
And it is like that video you mentioned of you holding the iPhone saying everybody's gonna want this.
Stretch 似乎正是满足了主要市场需求的产品——不希望有波动，但想要稳定的现金股息。
And Stretch seems to be that product that addresses the main market need of not wanting volatility, but wanting a stable cash dividend.
你有两年多的现金缓冲期来推进它。
You have a two plus year runway for it with cash.
MSTR 仍然以溢价交易。
MSTR is still trading at a premium.
你们还在买入比特币，但每次我在新闻节目中看到你们时，似乎大家都期待比特币归零，你们从英雄变成了天啊，发生什么事了？
You guys still are buying Bitcoin, but yet every time I see you on these news programs, it seems like they're expecting Bitcoin to go to zero and you've gone from hero to oh my gosh, what's happening?
比特币正在死亡。
Bitcoin's dying.
你们有没有觉得他们希望你们失败？
Do you ever feel like they're rooting for you to fail?
你们如何应对这种情绪上的巨大波动？
And how do you deal with like that swing in in sentiment?
这种挣扎是真实的。
The struggle is real.
这种挣扎是真实的，但更认真地说，当比特币创下历史新高时，市场充满狂热，所有媒体都转向正面，一片赞誉，人们互相击掌庆祝。
The struggle is real, but, you know, to be more serious, when Bitcoin is hitting all time high all time highs, there's a sense of exuberance and and all of the media turns positive and it's glowing and people are doing high fives.
而当价格下跌时，气氛就变得阴郁，人们则过度预测负面前景。
And when it draws down, there's a gloominess to it and then and then people over forecast to the negative.
我认为，正是这种波动带来了关注度、兴趣和投机，才有话题可谈，他们才在谈论我们。
I think that that it's the volatility that drives the engagement and the interest and the speculation and and there's something to talk about and they're talking about us.
你知道他们没在谈论的是什么吗？他们没在谈论曼哈顿上东区的房地产。
You know what they're not talking about is they're not talking about, you know, real estate on the Upper East Side Of Manhattan.
他们没在谈论林权。
They're not talking about timber rights.
他们也没在谈论那些非波动性资产，人们总在谈这些。
They're not, you know, like people people they they talk about all these non volatile assets.
非波动性资产意味着没有新闻。
Well, non volatile assets means there's no news.
如果没有新闻，就不会有关注。
And if there's no news, there's no interest.
当我经营一家上市公司时，有一段时间我们彻底退出了资本市场，因为我们对资本市场对待我们的方式感到极度不满，于是干脆不再参与。
You know, when I operated a public company, there was a period when we rage quit the capital markets, when we were just so unhappy with the way that the capital markets treated us, we just stopped participating.
所以有好多年，我们每个季度都会发布一份新闻稿，说明财务结果，但不再举行电话会议。
So I don't know how it was many years where we would put out a press release each quarter saying this is the results, but we didn't do a conference call.
我们不上电视，也不接受采访。
We didn't do television, we didn't do interviews.
所以，你就直接看数字吧，按自己的方式给公司估值。
So it's like, well, just read the numbers, value the company as they will.
在一家传统公司里，信息每季度才发布一次。
And in a conventional company, you have information released once a quarter.
因此，一年只有四次机会，四个窗口期，可能会有新信息，你才可能交易股票。
So there are four times a year, four windows a year where there might be information where you might trade the stock.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
四天。
Four days.
而且你还被期望不要让市场意外，这意味着，如果你是一家管理良好的传统公司，你会给出指引，然后业绩基本就在指引上下浮动，其实没什么意思。
And and and and you're expected to not surprise the market, which means that if you're a well run conventional company, you give guidance and then you hit the guidance plus or minus and it's really not very interesting.
所以，有人几乎只需要每年做一次决定，就能给这类公司估值。
And so someone could pretty much value one of those companies by making a decision once a year.
所以，我每年决定一次是买入还是持有股票，持有多少，然后没消息就是好消息，什么都没发生，这很无聊，不够波动。
So once a year I decide to buy or to hold the stock and how much to hold, and then like no news is good news and there's nothing else going on and that's boring, not not volatile.
当我们接触比特币时，我们意识到：我们持有这个资产，你猜怎么着？
And then when we got into Bitcoin, we realized, well, we're we're holding this asset and guess what?
你知道吗，Natalie，我们的网站每十五秒就会更新一次。
You know, our website updates every fifteen seconds, Natalie.
好的。
Okay.
所以想想这个周期。
So think about this cycle.
我们从每12周才发布一次重大财务信息，变成了每15秒就向金融市场更新一次信息。
We went from updating the financial markets with material news every 12 weeks, once every 12 weeks to updating the financial markets every fifteen seconds.
好的。
Okay.
所以，是的，你肯定会经历一些比特币下跌的星期。
So, yeah, you're gonna have weeks where where Bitcoin is gonna be down.
每当比特币价格波动一万美元，这家公司就会赚或亏80亿、70亿美元。
Every time Bitcoin moves $10,000, the company makes or loses $8,000,000,000, $7,000,000,000.
太好了。
That's great.
一千美元相当于七亿美元。
A thousand dollars is $700,000,000.
好的。
Okay.
让我来帮你理解一下。
Let me put this in perspective.
以前公司要整整一年才能赚到七千万美元。
It used to be the company worked for an entire year to make $70,000,000.
想想这真是疯狂。
It's so crazy to think about.
所以比特币每涨跌一百美元，就相当于一年的工作成果。
So every $100, every $100 fluctuation in Bitcoin is the equivalent of one year's work.
所以我们所做的，就是把一个能源来源、一个波动源，或者一个经济能量源直接接入了资产负债表。
So what we've done is is we unplugged a a energy source, a volatility generator or an economic energy generator directly into the balance sheet.
比特币周期推动新闻周期，新闻周期又驱动比特币交易。
And and the Bitcoin cycle drives a news cycle, the news cycle drives Bitcoin trading.
每个人都陷入狂热。
Everybody is obsessing.
所以你在电视上看到有人狂热地问：比特币还会跌得更低吗？
So you're on television and someone's obsessing, well could it go lower?
有一位怀疑者在想：也许我该做空这只股票。
Well, there's someone who's a skeptic that's thinking maybe I should short the stock.
我觉得我要从我的存钱罐里拿出一亿美元，然后做空，做空一亿美元。
I think I'm gonna go and take a $100,000,000 out of my piggy bank and I'm gonna short and I'm going to short it a 100,000,000.
但你知道吗？
But you know what?
他们必须买回来。
They have to buy that back.
对吧？
Right?
除非他们幸运地做空了一只股票，而该股票立即永远归零。
Unless they're lucky enough to short a stock which goes immediately to zero forever.
这只是一个时间问题，他们什么时候不得不花一亿美元买回它。
It's a it's it's only a question of when are they gonna have to buy a $100,000,000 back.
对吧？
Right?
他们终究得买回来。
They're gonna have to buy it back.
所以你吸引了一群想做空的人，但还有一群人。
So you're attracting some group of people that wanna trade short, but there's another group of people.
他们觉得这已经过度炒作，比特币肯定会回到原来的位置。
They're like, well, this is totally overdone and Bitcoin is definitely going to go back to where it was.
所以我打算进场，把我的存钱罐砸开。
And so I'm gonna get in and I'm gonna crack my piggy bank open.
我要买一亿美元的比特币。
I'm gonna buy a $100,000,000.
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