一个危险的核时刻

以下是总统约翰·F·肯尼迪在1961年联合国会议上对核战争风险的描述。

Here's how president John f Kennedy described the risk of nuclear war at the United Nations in 1961.

每个男人、女人和孩子都生活在核达摩克利斯之剑下，这把剑仅由一根最细的线悬挂着，随时可能因意外、误判或疯狂而断裂。

Every man, woman, and child lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at any moment by accident or miscalculation or by madness.

肯尼迪启动了长达数十年的努力，以降低这一风险。

Kennedy would kick start a decades long effort to reduce that risk.

如果世界正悬于一线之间，他便开始构建一套最终成为精心谈判达成的条约网络，以稳定全球核武库。

If the world was dangling by a thread, he began building what would eventually become a web of painstakingly negotiated treaties to stabilize global nuclear arsenals.

继任的总统从尼克松开始，达成了新的协议。

The president who followed forged new agreements from Nixon.

今天发布的这份联合声明，很可能将被铭记为一个新时代的开端。

This joint statement that has been issued today may well be remembered as the beginning of a new era.

到里根时期。

To Reagan.

这是一个简单的提议。

It was a simple proposal.

可以说简单得令人意外。

One might say disarmingly simple.

还有奥巴马。

And to Obama.

这一仪式证明了一个真相：昔日的对手也能建立新的伙伴关系。

And this ceremony is a testament to the truth that old adversaries can forge new partnerships.

如今，这张网络已支离破碎。

Today, that web is in tatters.

上周，俄美之间最后一项双边核条约到期了。

Last week, the last bilateral nuclear treaty between Russia and The United States expired.

与此同时，特朗普总统还在其他方面动摇着核现状。

Meanwhile, president Trump is shaking up the nuclear status quo in other ways.

美国一直在敦促欧洲加强自身的防御。

The US has been pushing Europe to step up its own defense.

去年三月，特朗普表示，他不会保卫那些军费投入不足的北约国家。

Last March, Trump said he would not defend NATO countries that don't spend enough.

我觉得这是常识。

I think it's common sense.

对吧？

Right?

如果他们不付钱，我不会为他们辩护。

If they don't pay, I'm not gonna defend them.

不会。

No.

我不会为他们辩护。

I'm not gonna defend them.

我必须

I gotta

现在欧洲显然已经注意到了。

Now Europe has clearly taken notice.

在周五慕尼黑安全会议的一次演讲中，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨表示，在大国时代，欧洲的自由已不再是理所当然的。

And in a speech Friday at the Munich Security Conference, German chancellor Friedrich Maerts said that in an era of great powers, Europe's freedom is no longer a given.

他说，他正在与法国总统商讨建立欧洲核威慑力量的事宜。

He said that he was in talks with the President of France about a European nuclear deterrent.

请想一想。

Consider this.

世界正变得越来越不稳定。

The world is increasingly unstable.

这是否会促使更多国家走向核武器？

Could that drive more countries towards nuclear arms?

从

From

来自NPR，我是艾尔莎·程。

NPR, I'm Elsa Cheng.

这是NPR的《请想一想》。

It's consider this from NPR.

所以我的联合主持人玛丽·露易丝·凯利本周一直在慕尼黑，报道我们刚才提到的那位德国总理发表演讲的同一场会议。

So my cohost, Mary Louise Kelly, has been in Munich this week reporting from that same conference where the German chancellor gave that speech that we just mentioned.

玛丽·路易丝·凯利所报道的众多重大议题之一，就是如何看待当今这个核历史的关键时刻。

And one of the many big issues that Mary Louise is covering is what to make of this moment in nuclear history.

接下来，让她来继续讲述这个故事。

I'll let her pick up the story from here.

当我还是个孩子的时候，上世纪八十年代，我们学校会举行各种应急演练：火灾演练、龙卷风演练，还有核袭击演练。

When I was a kid back in the eighties, my school held emergency drills, fire drills, tornado drills, nuclear drills.

其中核袭击演练的应对方案是，我们要蹲在课桌底下，双臂交叉护住头部以求保护。

The plan for the latter was we were supposed to crouch under our classroom desks, arms crossed over our heads for protection.

以如今的 hindsight 来看，躲在课桌底下几乎无法抵御一枚来袭的核弹头。

With the benefit of hindsight, hiding under our desks probably would not have protected us much from an incoming nuclear warhead.

然而，四十年过去了，我们似乎正进入一个全新的核时代。

Well, fast forward four decades, we seem to be in a new nuclear era.

冷战已经结束，但问题依然存在：我们该如何保障核武器的安全？

Cold war is over, but the questions, how do we secure the nukes?

是否应该建造更多的核武器？

Whether to build more nukes?

它们依然真实存在。

They're as live as ever.

这些问题也萦绕在前来慕尼黑参会的国家安全领袖们心中。

And those questions are on the minds of national security leaders gathering here in Munich.

其中一位是克里斯汀·沃莫思，前陆军部长，现任核威胁倡议组织的总裁兼首席执行官。

Among them, Christine Warmoth, former army secretary, now president and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

这是一个致力于减少核威胁的无党派组织。

That's a nonpartisan group dedicated to reducing the nuclear threat.

沃莫思部长，很高兴见到您。

Secretary Warmoth, great to see you.

欢迎来到慕尼黑。

Welcome to Munich.

谢谢。

Thank you.

能来到这里我很高兴，我小时候也做过躲在课桌下的演练。

It's great to be here, and I did those drills under my desk as well.

是的

Yeah.

可能不会带来太多好处。

Probably would not have done as much good.

肯定对我们没有帮助。

Definitely would not have helped us.

因此，让我们评估一下当前的状况：美国和俄罗斯之间的最后一项核武器条约刚刚到期。

So to take stock of where we are this moment, the last nuclear arms treaty between The United States and Russia just expired.

上个月底，《原子科学家公报》将末日时钟设定为距离午夜还有85秒，这是近八十年来最接近午夜的一次。

Late last month, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, their doomsday clock was set to eighty five seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been in nearly eight decades of doing it.

当前的局势有多危险？

How dangerous is the current moment?

当前的局势相当危险。

The current moment is quite dangerous.

我们现在没有任何形式的

We are now without any kind

自1972年以来，首次没有任何条约对战略核武器进行限制。

of a treaty putting limits on strategic nuclear weapons for the first time since 1972.

中国正在迅速扩大其核武库。

China is rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal.

预计到2030年，他们将拥有一千枚核武器。

They are expected to have a thousand nuclear weapons by 2030.

所以我认为，现在是一个相当危险的时刻。

So it's a pretty dangerous time, I think.

刚刚到期的条约，被称为《新削减战略武器条约》。

The treaty that just expired, new start, it was known as.

俄罗斯实际上提出延长该条约。

The Russians actually offered to extend it.

特朗普政府说：不。

Trump administration said, no.

我们想要更好的协议，所以它到期了。

We want something better, and so it expired.

现在我们什么都没有了。

Now we have nothing.

好主意吗？

Good idea?

错失的机会吗？

Missed opportunity?

你怎么看？

What do you think?

我认为这确实有点错失了机会，但我感到欣慰，因为据我了解，我们最近在阿布扎比与俄罗斯人会谈，讨论是否可能继续对我们的战略核武器施加某种限制。

Well, I think it was a bit of a missed opportunity, but I'm heartened because as I understand it, we we were in Abu Dhabi with the Russians just recently talking to them about perhaps some sort of continued limits on our strategic nuke.

所以我希望这些会谈能继续下去，因为我认为至少保持一些限制是非常重要的，即使不是通过正式条约的形式。

So I hope that those talks continue because I think it would be very important to try to keep some limits at least in place even if it's not through a formal treaty.

但如果中国不参与，任何条约或协议会不会形同虚设？

But is any treaty that could be any kind of agreement toothless if China isn't in it?

不会。

No.

这并不是毫无意义的。

It's not toothless.

我认为，三方条约的想法太过遥远了。

I I think, the idea of a three way treaty is a bridge too far.

坦率地说，中国人希望与俄罗斯和美国实现平等。

I think, frankly, the Chinese want to, establish parity with Russia and The United States.

但我认为，与每个国家分别达成协议的可能性是值得探索的。

But I think the possibility of an agreement with, each country separately is something to potentially pursue.

那欧洲国家呢？

What about the Europeans?

既然我们此刻身处德国慕尼黑，欧洲的热议话题都是如何应对一个可能无法再依赖美国核保护伞的世界。

Since we're standing here in Munich, in Germany, the buzz in Europe is all about figuring out how to navigate a world where they may not be able to rely on The US nuclear umbrella.

欧洲还能依赖美国的核保护伞吗？

Can Europe still rely on The US nuclear umbrella?

我认为，政府必须明确向欧洲传达这样一个信息：他们可以依赖我们的核保护伞，因为我们最不希望看到的就是所谓的‘友好核扩散’。

I think it's very important that the administration communicate clearly to the Europeans that they can rely on our nuclear umbrella because the last thing we need is what is called friendly proliferation.

我们最不想看到的是波兰甚至德国这样的国家考虑拥有自己的核武器。

The last thing we wanna see is a country like Poland or even Germany thinking about getting its own nuclear weapons.

这不符合美国的利益。

That's not going to be in the interest of The United States.

法国在这个问题上处于什么位置？

What about where does France fit in?

目前听起来，你希望欧洲大陆上只有法国一个国家拥有核武器，而且永远如此。

Currently, it sounds like you hope for forever that is the only country on the European continent with nuclear

法国和英国的核武器是欧洲整体核保护伞的重要组成部分。

Well, the French and The UK nuclear weapons are an important part of the overall umbrella for Europe.

所以，如果美国对欧洲采取更交易性的立场，我不惊讶法国和英国正在讨论这种责任将如何体现。

So, you know, I I wouldn't be surprised if France and Britain are having conversations about what that responsibility looks like if The United States is moving to a more transactional posture relative to Europe.

所以

So

总而言之，回到我们最初的话题，我们是否正面临一个未来，那时学生们又要再次躲在课桌下进行核袭击演练？

bottom line, to bring us back to where we started, are we looking at a future where school kids are gonna be hiding under their desks again for nuclear drills?

如果不是字面意义上的躲藏，我想说的是，我们是否会养育出一代孩子，他们感受到核武器带来的危险，觉得世界正变得越来越不安全，而不是越来越安全？

And if not literally, I guess, I mean, are we going to be raising children in a generation that feels the peril, that feels the world is getting less safe because of nuclear weapons than more?

我希望我们不会

Well, I hope we're

我们不会回到躲在课桌下的那种 drills 时代，但我确实认为我们正进入一个危险的新时代，可能会看到一场军备竞赛。

not going to be going back to the days of drills underneath desks, but I do think we're in a perilous new era where we could see an arms race.

当你说到我们可能正处于一个新的核军备竞赛时刻时，为什么呢？

And when you say we may be in a moment of a new nuclear arms race, why?

我的意思是，这是不是因为各国感到越来越不安全，世界正在围绕它们发生转变？

Is I mean, is that dictated by the fact that countries feel increasingly insecure and, like, the world is is shifting around them?

我认为各国感到更加不安全。

I think countries feel more insecure.

我认为俄罗斯显然是一种修正主义力量。

I think Russia is clearly a revisionist power.

你知道，我们看到了他们在乌克兰所做的事情。

You know, we see what they've done in Ukraine.

我认为普京希望继续推进他在乌克兰的战争。

And I think Putin wants to continue to pursue his war in Ukraine.

还有，中国正在大规模扩充军力，但中国对其意图一直缺乏透明度。

And and, again, the massive Chinese buildup, the Chinese have not been very transparent about their intentions.

因此，我们确实感觉世界正变得越来越危险，越来越不安全。

So it does feel like we're in a a more dangerous, less secure world.

这是克里斯汀·沃莫特，前陆军部长、核威胁倡议组织的总裁兼首席执行官。

That was Christine Warmoth, former army secretary, president, and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

她是在慕尼黑安全会议上接受我的联合主持人玛丽·路易丝·凯利的采访。

She was speaking to my cohost, Mary Louise Kelly, at the Munich Security Conference.

本集由卡伦·扎莫拉和康纳·多诺万制作，音频工程由泰德·米班负责。

This episode was produced by Karen Zamora and Connor Donovan with audio engineering by Ted Meebane.

本集由克里斯托弗·因特利亚塔、布雷特·尼利和科特尼·多宁编辑。

It was edited by Christopher Inteliata, Brett Neely, and Courtney Dorning.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·叶尼根。

Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

在结束之前，衷心感谢我们的《Consider This Plus》听众对节目的支持。

And before we go, a quick thank you to our Consider This Plus listeners who support the show.

你们的贡献使NPR全球的记者能够顺利开展工作。

Your contribution makes it possible for NPR journalists all around the world to do their jobs.

支持者还能获得额外剧集，并且可以无广告地收听每一期节目。

Supporters also get bonus episodes and can hear every episode without messages from sponsors.

了解更多，请访问 +.npr.org。

Learn more at +.npr.org.

这是来自NPR的《Consider This》。

It's consider this from NPR.

我是Elsa Cheng。

I'm Elsa Cheng.