全球经济能否应对生育率下降的世界？

翻阅NPR的档案，你会发现许多故事都是同一主题的不同变奏。

Spin through NPR's archives, and you'll find a whole bunch of stories that are variations on a theme.

欧盟的出生率低到整个欧洲大陆的人口正在减少。

Birth rates in the European Union are so low that the population of the continent is declining.

日本的出生率骤降。

Japan's birth rate plummeted.

除非情况改变，否则人口很快将开始萎缩。

Unless things change, the population soon will start shrinking.

这是卡斯柯湾中部一个风景如画的小岛，距离海岸有90分钟的船程，而它的人口正在减少。

It's a picturesque island in the middle of Casco Bay, a ninety minute boat ride from the coast, and its population is shrinking.

无论是大陆、国家还是缅因州海岸外的岛屿，许多地方都面临着同样的问题。

Whether it's a continent or a country or an island off the coast of Maine, lots of places have faced the same question.

当人口下降时会发生什么？

What happens when the population goes down?

人口下降的原因各有不同。

There are different reasons for the declines.

在中国，这是长达数十年的政府强制独生子女政策的结果。

In China, it was decades of a government enforced one child policy.

2015年，也就是该政策取消的前一年，一位名叫陈继儒的村党支部书记向NPR讲述了他过去如何不得不时刻关注孕妇的情况。

In 2015, a year before that policy was canceled, a village communist party secretary named Chen Jiru told NPR about how he used to have to be on the lookout for pregnant women.

当时不允许生二胎，所以我们只能做工作，说服她们去做流产。

Having a second child wasn't allowed, so we had to work on them and persuade them to have an abortion.

那时候，我们村干部的工作重心就是围着妇女的大肚子转。

At the time, our work as a village cadre revolved around women's big bellies.

俄罗斯的人口在2010年代开始减少，这是苏联解体后动荡时期人们选择少生育的滞后效应。

Russia's population started to shrink in the twenty tens, a delayed effect of fewer people choosing to have kids in the turmoil that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.

加亚娜·苏法洛娃当时对NPR这样说道。

Gayane Sufarova put it this way to NPR back then.

潜在母亲的数量并不多。

The number of potential mothers is not big.

因此我们无法期待未来出生人数的增长。

So we can't expect the growth of the number of births in the future.

对这些地方而言，人口老龄化与人口减少意味着巨大的经济挑战。

For all of these places, an aging, shrinking population means big economic challenges.

这一现象已经蔓延开来。

And the phenomenon has spread.

想想这个。

Consider this.

全球范围内的人们生育的孩子数量正在减少。

People around the world are having fewer children.

这可能会动摇全球经济的根基。

That could shake the foundations of the global economy.

我是NPR的胡安娜·萨默斯。

From NPR, I'm Juana Summers.

本信息由Wise提供，这是一款为全球使用资金的国际人士设计的应用程序。

This message comes from Wise, the app for international people using money around the globe.

只需轻点几下，您就能以多达40种货币进行发送、消费和收款。

You can send, spend, and receive in up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps.

聪明点。

Be smart.

用Wise。

Get Wise.

立即下载Wise应用或访问wise.com。

Download the Wise app today or visit wise.com.

条款和条件适用。

Ts and cs apply.

我是Ira Glass。

This is Ira Glass.

在《美国生活》节目中，我们喜欢好谜题。

On This American Life, one that we like is a good mystery.

有时是关于大事的谜题，但大多数时候，小谜题最精彩。

Sometimes about really big things, but most times, the little mysteries are the best.

我们的失物招领处现在堆满了裤子。

Our lost and found is currently filled with pants.

我不知道我我我从没见过这种事。

I don't know what I I I've never seen this happen.

等等。

Wait.

这是真的吗？

This is true?

这是真的。

This is true.

每周都有各种大小的谜团，《美国生活》，在您获取播客的任何地方收听。

Mysteries of every size each week, This American Life, wherever you get your podcasts.

在《与斯科特·卡特谈神明》节目中，聆听信徒们的故事。

On Ye Gods with Scott Carter, hear from the faithful.

我告诉过我那位非常虔诚的天主教母亲，她需要见见耶稣。

I told my very Catholic mother that she needs to meet Jesus.

那些无信仰者。

The faithless.

我就是完全不相信上帝。

I just so don't believe in God.

还有那些无所畏惧的人。

And the fearless.

服务人民，与人建立联系。

Serve people, connect with people.

这就是我们繁荣的方式。

That's how we thrive.

如果生活是个谜，我们就去调查。

If life's a mystery, we investigate.

是谁干的？

Who done it?

我向幽默之神祈祷

I pray that the humor god

虔诚收听Scott Carter主持的《Ye Gods》播客，各大平台均可收听。

Listen religiously to ye gods with Scott Carter wherever you get your podcasts.

请听NPR的这则报道。

It's consider this from NPR.

这里有一个引人注目的统计数据。

Here is a dramatic statistic.

根据联合国最新数据，自20世纪70年代以来，全球女性平均生育子女数量已下降超过一半。

Worldwide, the number of children born to the average woman has dropped by more than half since the nineteen seventies according to the latest United Nations data.

NPR的布莱恩·曼一直在探究这一变化带来的影响，他发现这正在挑战资本主义的基本理念。

NPR's Brian Mann has been exploring the consequences of this change, and he found that it's challenging basic ideas about capitalism.

思考如此宏大的议题——世界人口如何变化、如何重塑全球经济——令人感到难以承受。

Thinking about something this big, how the world's population is changing, how that's transforming the global economy is overwhelming.

所以我想从非常小的切入点开始，就讲一个人，阿什莉·埃文乔的故事。

So I wanna start really small with just one person, Ashley Evancho.

我的专业是金融，目前在金融服务行业工作。

My degree is in finance, and I work in financial services.

埃文乔32岁，住在纽约州布法罗市郊，她以务实的经济思维建立了出色的职业生涯。

Evancho was 32, lives in a suburb of Buffalo, New York, and she's built a great career thinking in practical ways about the economy.

几年前，她和丈夫尼克决定是时候要个孩子了。

A few years ago, she and her husband Nick decided it was time to have a baby.

他们三岁的女儿索菲娅给生活带来了欢乐，但埃文乔表示他们还做出了另一个决定。

Their three year old daughter Sophia is a joy, but Evancho says they also reached another decision.

我不需要再要一个孩子。

I don't need another one.

我不想要再要一个孩子。

I don't want another one.

我很享受只养育一个孩子。

I love having only one child.

我认为这是一个非常明智的选择，因为我仍然能感受到生活的平衡。

It is, I think, a very elegant choice because I still feel like I have balance in my life.

这个选择非常个人化，但也是巨大转变中的微小一环。

That choice was deeply personal, but it's also one tiny part of a massive shift.

全美乃至许多其他国家的家庭生育数量已不足以维持稳定人口，这一趋势数十年来不断加剧。

Families across The US and in a lot of other countries are having too few children to maintain a stable population, a trend that's been deepening for decades.

梅丽莎·卡尼是圣母大学的经济学家。

Melissa Carney is an economist at the University of Notre Dame.

这个人口结构问题很可能以人们似乎尚未意识到的方式重塑我们的社会。

This demographic issue is poised to potentially remake so much of our society in a way that people just don't seem to be thinking about.

为了了解这种情况如何影响社区和当地经济，我独自前往纽约州北部另一个靠近美加边境的小镇。

To get a sense for how this can play out in a community and a local economy, I traveled to another Upstate New York town alone near The US Canada border.

主街上排列着漂亮的砖石建筑，但许多店面都空置着。

The main street is lined with handsome brick and stone buildings, but many of the storefronts are empty.

你所见到的衰落早在很久以前就开始了。

The decline that you can see started a long time ago.

杰里米·埃文斯负责富兰克林县的经济发展工作，该县人口已减少了约10%。

Jeremy Evans is in charge of economic development for Franklin County, which has lost roughly 10% of its population.

这里新生儿数量太少，医院甚至关闭了产科病房。

So few babies are born here, the hospital closed its maternity ward.

坐在办公室里，埃文斯向我表达了他的担忧。

Sitting in his office, Evans tells me he's worried.

我们的人口将持续减少。

Our population will continue to decline.

更令人担忧的是年轻人口的减少。

More worrisome to us is the decline in population of younger people.

埃文说，马龙其实有很多工作岗位。

There are actually plenty of jobs in Malone, Evan says.

他认为会有更多公司来这里，但工人不够。

And he thinks more companies would come here, but there aren't enough workers.

他最重要的经济目标是努力稳定并重建人口规模。

His biggest economic goal is trying to stabilize and rebuild the population.

如果你是个企业家，想要发展却招不到员工，那真的非常非常令人沮丧。

If you're an entrepreneur and you wanna grow and you can't find employees, that can be really, really frustrating.

我们的首要任务是吸引18到39岁的群体。

Our number one mission is 18 39 year olds.

越来越多的经济学家表示，这可能会成为美国大部分地区的未来。

A growing number of economists say this could be the future for much of The US.

在二十世纪七十年代，美国人的平均年龄是28岁。

In the nineteen seventies, the average American was 28 years old.

现在平均年龄是39岁。

Now the average is 39.

我采访的每位专家都表示，美国劳动年龄人口将继续老龄化并最终缩减，如果美国维持严格的移民新限制，这一趋势将会加速。

Every expert I spoke to said America's working age population will continue to gray and eventually shrink, a pattern that will accelerate if The US maintains sharp new limits on immigration.

兰斯·普里切特是伦敦经济学院的客座教授。

Lance Pritchett is a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.

很难保持经济的活力。

It's hard to maintain the dynamism of the economy.

我的意思是，你知道，从电工到水管工等各种工作都找不到人手。

I mean, you know, you can't get people to do all kinds of work from electricians to plumbers to everything else.

普里切特表示，即使这种人口变化仅影响世界最大经济体美国，其影响也将十分巨大。

Pritchett says the impact of this population shift would be big even if it were only hitting The US, the world's largest economy.

但其他七国集团成员国的家庭——这些世界其他主要经济体——人口萎缩速度甚至更快。

But families in other g seven countries, the world's other big economies, they're shrinking even faster.

我认为，如果你生活在欧洲或亚洲部分地区，这就是全部问题所在。

I say if you live in Europe or parts of Asia, this is everything.

经济学家表示，现代全球资本主义的许多基本假设都是在各国人口快速增长时期形成的。

Economists say many of the basic assumptions of modern global capitalism evolved when countries were seeing rapid population growth.

企业可以依赖年轻劳动力、新消费者和更大市场的持续增长。

Businesses could count on a constant increase in young workers, new consumers, and bigger markets.

这帮助政府支撑了养老金和公共医疗计划。

That helped governments shore up pension and public health programs.

但如今，在全球至少三大经济体——中国、意大利和日本，死亡人数已经超过了出生人数。

But now deaths already outnumber births in at least three of the world's biggest economies, China, Italy, and Japan.

普里切特表示，随着更多国家人口老龄化和减少，经济将如何运转尚不明确。

Pritchett says it's not clear how economies will work as populations age and shrink in more countries.

当事前从未发生过的事情发生时，很难预测会发生什么。

Hard to tell what's gonna happen when things that have never happened before happen.

我们根本没有国家成功应对这种情况的先例。

We just don't have any example of countries doing this successfully.

中国作为世界第二大经济体，正在经历几乎难以置信的人口结构转变。

The place where this population shift is already happening on an almost unbelievable scale is China, the world's second largest economy.

研究人员表示，未来二十年内，中国的劳动年龄人口将锐减超过2亿。

Researchers say over the next two decades, China's working age population will plunge by more than 200,000,000 people.

我们在北京一家繁华购物中心外遇到了20岁的李米娅。

We met Mia Li, who's 20 outside a bustling shopping mall in Beijing.

她没有孩子，并担心生育会带来高昂费用和风险。

She doesn't have children, and she worries motherhood would be expensive and risky.

养育孩子需要经济支持。

Having children requires financial support.

但如果经济下滑，怎么可能负担得起抚养费用呢？

But if the economy goes down, how can you possibly afford to raise them?

在这座拥挤的城市里，很难察觉正在进行的人口减少和快速老龄化规模。

In this crowded city, it's hard to see the scale of depopulation and rapid aging already underway.

李在中国低迷的房地产行业工作，她说已经感受到了这种变化。

But Lee works in China's sagging real estate industry, and she says she's already feeling the change.

房价会下跌，购房者的数量也会减少。

Housing prices will fall, and the number of home buyers will decrease as well.

经济学家表示，全球大多数人仍未意识到这种人口变化的规模，因为短期忧虑——从失业、通胀到贸易战和移民问题——掩盖了人们生活中的这一长期趋势。

Economists say most people around the world still aren't aware of the scale of this population shift, which is overshadowed in most people's lives by short term concerns, everything from unemployment and inflation to trade wars and immigration.

包括哈佛大学克劳迪娅·戈尔登在内的一些专家表示，他们并不担心人口老龄化和减少对全球经济的影响。

And some experts, including Claudia Golden at Harvard University, say they're not worried about the impact of an aging shrinking population on the world's economy.

我并不担心这个问题。

I am not worried about that.

稀缺性无处不在。

Scarcity is everywhere.

权衡取舍无处不在。

Trade offs are everywhere.

并不存在所谓的最优生育率。

There is no optimal birth rate.

戈尔登认为，人们对人口问题的诸多担忧，实质上是对高移民率和女性赋权反弹的一种抵触情绪。

Golden thinks much of the concern about population is a backlash against high rates of immigration and the empowerment of women.

但越来越多的经济学家认为，这些人口结构变化的影响将会加剧。

But a growing number of economists think the impacts of these demographic changes will grow.

圣母大学的梅丽莎·卡尼担心，世界将面临一个未来——从职业机会的丧失到高昂的托儿费用，养育孩子的种种成本将促使更多夫妇彻底放弃为人父母。

Melissa Carney at Notre Dame worries the world faces a future where the cost of having kids, everything from lost career opportunities to high day care prices, will encourage more couples to opt out of parenting altogether.

当我们这个社会逐渐偏离以孩子为中心的方向时，养育孩子的成本就会上升，而保持无子女状态、追求无子女生活的好处，以及职场期望等因素，都会进一步放大当前的趋势。

The more we become a society that's moving away from one oriented towards children, then the cost of having kids go up and the benefits of remaining childless and pursuing a childless life, the expectations of the workforce, all of that pushes towards amplifying the trend we're already on.

在采访了全球多位经济学家关于人口结构变化的问题后，我想再次联系纽约州布法罗市的财务规划师兼年轻妈妈阿什莉·阿班乔。

After talking to economists all over the world about this population shift, I wanted to check-in again with Ashley Abancho, the financial planner and young mom in Buffalo, New York.

她认为家庭规模不会再扩大了。

She doesn't think families will get bigger again.

阿班西奥表示，如今夫妇和女性对生活和事业的看法已经不同，这意味着孩子会更少。

Couples and women just think differently now about their lives and careers, Abancio says, and that means fewer kids.

如今，我们有了选择。

Today, there are options.

我们接受了教育。

We have education.

我们拥有自主选择人生的能力。

We have the ability to make our own choices in life.

母亲身份已不再是我们的唯一选择，这很正常。

Motherhood is not the only option for us anymore, and that's okay.

埃文科表示，经济乃至整个社会可能都需要适应许多家庭这种新常态。

Evancho says the economy and whole societies may have to adapt to what for many families is a new version of normal.

美国国家公共电台的布莱恩·曼报道。

NPR's Brian Mann.

这篇报道是NPR关于全球家庭小型化趋势成因及影响的系列专题的一部分。

This story is part of a broader NPR reporting project looking at the causes and implications of the global trend towards smaller families.

您可以在节目笔记中找到该系列的链接。

You can find a link to the series in the episode notes.

本期节目由佩奇·沃特豪斯和康纳·多诺万制作，音频工程由吉米·基利负责。

This episode was produced by Paige Waterhouse and Connor Donovan with audio engineering by Jimmy Kealy.

节目由安德莉亚·德莱昂和考特妮·多宁编辑。

It was edited by Andrea De Leon and Courtney Dorning.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·耶尼根。

Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

这里是NPR的《思考一下》。

It's consider this from NPR.

我是胡安娜·萨默斯。

I'm Juana Summers.

《晨间头条》早上好。

Up first Good morning.

获得金球奖提名的《晨间头条》早上好。

Is a Golden Globe nominee Good morning.

都是因为有你。

Because of you.

早上好。

Good morning.

这里是来自《晨间头条》的

This is up first from

您的支持让这一切成为可能，无论是在田纳西州还是世界各地

Your support makes it possible here in Tennessee where public media reporters around the world Here

在蒙大拿州

in Montana.

在庆州这里

Here in Kyungju.

来自莫斯科的连线

The line from Moscow.

每天为您带来三个重要故事

To bring you three essential stories every morning.

前线的最新情况如何

What's the latest from the front

乌克兰人想要确保这个原因

Ukrainians wanna make sure the reason

《Up first》现已获得金球奖最佳播客提名

Up first, now a Golden Globe nominee for best podcast.

NPR播客《特朗普任期》为您提供关于特朗普政府重大新闻的当日最新动态。

NPR's podcast Trump's terms is your source for same day updates on big news about the Trump administration.

短小精悍的每集节目，每次聚焦一个主题，时长约五分钟。

Short, focused episodes, one topic at a time, about five minutes or so.

我们汇集了NPR所有报道领域的资讯，确保您始终获取最重要、最紧迫的新闻故事。

We carry out reporting from across all of NPR's coverage, so you are always getting the biggest, most urgent stories.

您可通过NPR应用程序或任意播客平台收听《特朗普任期》。

Listen to Trump's terms on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

想收听无广告插播的播客内容吗？

Wanna hear this podcast without sponsor breaks?

亚马逊Prime会员可通过Amazon Music收听无广告版的《考虑这个》，您也可通过+npr.org支持NPR的重要新闻报道并获取《考虑这个》增强版。

Amazon Prime members can listen to consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music, or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get consider this plus at +.npr.org.

网址是+npr.org。

That's +.npr.org.