伊朗战争如何重塑世界以及国内的政治格局？

一周之内会发生这样的事，真是令人震惊。

It is astonishing what can happen in a week.

这

It

上周六清晨，德黑兰日出时分，美国和以色列发动了战争的首次打击，过去七天里，这场战争已蔓延至整个中东地区，甚至超出了这一范围。

was sunrise Saturday in Tehran when The US and Israel launched the first strikes of a war that over the past seven days have spread throughout and now beyond the Middle East.

在行动的前24小时内，这两个国家袭击了超过一千个目标，据美国总统特朗普和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡称，最重大的一次打击是击毙了伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊。

Over the course of the first twenty four hours of the operation, the two countries struck more than a thousand targets, the most significant said president Trump and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a strike that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

你们获得自由的时刻即将到来。

The hour of your freedom is at hand.

待在掩体里。

Stay sheltered.

不要离开家。

Don't leave your home.

外面非常危险。

It's very dangerous outside.

炸弹将会在各处落下。

Bombs will be dropping everywhere.

我们完成之后，接管你们的政府。

When we are finished, take over your government.

这将属于你们去夺取。

It will be yours to take.

你们的苦难和牺牲不会白费。

Your suffering and your sacrifice will not be in vain.

我们曾承诺提供帮助，而帮助已经到来。

We promised you the help, and the help has arrived.

我们甚至在德黑兰市中心的办公室窗户里看到了一次爆炸。

We even saw one of the explosions from our office window around downtown Tehran.

这位工程师是我们本周在伊朗采访的许多人之一，他要求美国国家公共电台不要使用他的名字，以免遭到政府报复。

This engineer is one of many we talked to in Iran this week who asked NPR not to use his name for fear of government retribution.

突然，我们听到了邻居们的欢呼声。

Suddenly, we heard cheers from our neighbors.

说实话，当我听到欢呼声的那一刻，我就知道发生了什么。

And to be honest with you, the moment I heard the cheers, I knew what had happened.

伊朗外交部称这次空袭严重侵犯了其国家主权，并誓言将果断回应。

Iran's foreign ministry called the airstrikes a gross violation of its national sovereignty and vowed to respond decisively.

他们进行了反击，向阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林和科威特的美军基地发射了无人机和导弹，这些袭击导致六名美国军人死亡。

They struck back, firing drones and missiles at US bases in The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, where the strikes killed six American service members.

周一，伊朗继续对远至塞浦路斯和地中海的目标发动攻击，同时伊朗支持的黎巴嫩真主党也对以色列发动了袭击，这是其一年多来的首次。

On Monday, Iran continued attacks on targets as far afield as Cyprus and the Mediterranean, and Iran backed Hezbollah in Lebanon launched its own attacks on Israel, its first in more than a year.

周一，两架伊朗无人机损坏了沙特阿拉伯的美国大使馆，第二天，一架伊朗无人机袭击了迪拜的美国领事馆。

Two Iranian drones damaged the US embassy in Saudi Arabia on Monday, and the day after, an Iranian drone targeted the US consulate in Dubai.

还有数百次针对伊拉克及其他地区美军的袭击，特朗普总统警告称还会有更多伤亡。

Hundreds more targeted US troops in Iraq and elsewhere, and president Trump warned of more casualties.

遗憾的是，在事情结束之前，很可能还会有更多发生。

Sadly, there will likely be more before it ends.

事情就是这么回事。

That's the way it is.

当美国及其盟友作出回应时，有时出现了混乱。

As The US and its allies responded, confusion sometimes set in.

科威特误击了三架美国战斗机。

Kuwait mistakenly shot down three US fighter jets.

周一，伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡并威胁向船只开火，导致油价飙升。

Oil prices spiked on Monday when Iran closed the Strait Of Hormuz and threatened to fire on ships.

以下是Again Capital的能源分析师约翰·基尔达夫。

Here's energy analyst John Kilduff of Again Capital.

所以这正在成为这个市场实时面临的真正供应问题，就像一场缓慢推进的交通事故正在成真。

So this is becoming a very much a a real supply problem for this market in real time, like a slow motion traffic accident coming to fruition here.

这场战争加剧了美国与其西方盟友之间的关系紧张。

The war strained relations between The United States and its western allies.

这些行动是在国际法之外进行的，我们无法认可。

These operations were conducted outside of international law, which we cannot condone.

这是法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的说法。

That was France's president Emmanuel Macron.

其他欧洲国家如德国采取了更为缓和的语气。

Other European countries like Germany struck a more conciliatory tone.

西班牙非常不合作，英国也是如此。

Spain has been very, very uncooperative, and so has UK.

当这两国拒绝允许美军使用其国内军事基地攻击伊朗时，特朗普严厉批评了它们。

Trump blasted the two countries when they refused to let US troops use military bases in their countries to attack Iran.

西班牙立场坚定。

Spain held firm.

英国首相基尔·斯塔默最终允许其基地用于防御目的。

British prime minister, Keir Starmer, eventually allowed use of its bases for defensive purposes.

但他仍在议会发表了一番充满激情的演讲，称英国不认同通过空袭进行政权更迭。

Still, he made an impassioned speech in parliament saying Britain does not believe in regime change from the skies.

我们都记得伊拉克的错误，也从中吸取了教训。

We all remember the mistakes of Iraq, and we have learned those lessons.

到周三，冲突进一步扩大。

By Wednesday, the conflict spread even further.

一艘美国潜艇在斯里兰卡附近的印度洋击沉了一艘伊朗军舰，船上约有180人。

A US submarine sunk an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean off Sri Lanka, carrying about 180 people.

五角大楼负责人佩特·海格塞斯。

Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth.

它被一枚鱼雷击沉。

It was sunk by a torpedo.

寂静的死亡。

Quiet death.

这是自二战以来首次用鱼雷击沉敌方舰船。

The first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War two.

这次袭击在南亚引发了连锁焦虑。

The strike set off ripples of anxiety across South Asia.

前印度军官萨尚·辛格担心，这次袭击将考验中国在印度洋的主导地位。

Sashant Singh, a former Indian military officer, worries the strike will test Chinese dominance over the Indian Ocean.

如果美国海军在这里这么做，这确实传递了一个信号，而中国很可能会更认真地对待这个信号。

If the US Navy is doing this here, it really sends a signal which of which the Chinese are likely to take more seriously.

周四，更多战线被开辟。

On Thursday, more fronts opened.

一架伊朗无人机袭击了阿塞拜疆的一个机场，而阿塞拜疆是美国的盟友。

An Iranian drone struck an airport in Azerbaijan, a US ally.

北约拦截了一枚飞向土耳其的导弹。

NATO intercepted a missile headed for Turkey.

黑格塞斯部长昨天警告说，这场战争在未来几天只会进一步扩大。

Secretary Hegseth warned yesterday the war will only expand in the coming days.

针对伊朗和德黑兰的火力即将急剧增加。

The amount of firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically.

特朗普总统表示，除非对方无条件投降，否则不会达成任何协议。

President Trump says there will be no deal except, in his words, unconditional surrender.

想想看。

Consider this.

过去一周，以色列和美国的炸弹严重摧毁了伊朗，冲突已蔓延至海湾地区的多个其他国家。

For the past week, Israeli and US bombs have devastated Iran, and the conflict has widened to include multiple countries in The Gulf.

这场冲突如何重塑世界秩序，并影响特朗普在美国的受欢迎程度？

How is the conflict reshaping the world order and impacting Trump's popularity here in The United States?

来自NPR，我是胡安娜·萨默斯。

From NPR, I'm Juana Summers.

我是斯科特·德特拉。

And I'm Scott Detra.

这条信息来自Wise，一款为全球使用资金的国际用户设计的应用。

This message comes from Wise, the app for international people using money around the globe.

您只需轻点几下，即可发送、消费和接收多达40种货币。

You can send, spend, and receive in up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps.

聪明一点。

Be smart.

使用Wise。

Get Wise.

立即下载Wise应用或访问wise.com。

Download the Wise app today or visit wise.com.

条款和条件适用。

Ts and cs apply.

《生活工具箱》能帮助你迅速改变生活。

Life Kit can help you change your life in record time.

只需大约二十分钟，《生活工具箱》的一期节目就能为你提供可当天实践的实证建议。

In just about twenty minutes, a Life Kit episode gives you evidence based tips you can put into practice that day.

无需快进就能听到精华内容。

No fast forwarding to get to the good stuff.

直接获得明智、简洁的建议。

Just smart, straightforward advice right away.

在NPR应用或你收听播客的任何平台收听《生活工具箱》播客。

Listen to the Life Kit Podcast in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是来自NPR的《深思》。

It's consider this from NPR.

伊朗战争很快便蔓延到了更广泛的地区。

It didn't take long for the Iran war to spill over into the wider region.

我采访了NPR的外交记者米歇尔·凯勒曼，了解盟友如何看待这场冲突的扩大。

I spoke to NPR's diplomatic correspondent, Michelle Kellerman, about how allies are viewing the widening conflict.

米歇尔，特朗普政府表示，他们的空袭才刚刚开始加速。

Michelle, the Trump administration says its airstrikes are only just picking up steam.

他们说这将削弱伊朗威胁该地区的能力，但大多数国家已经遭遇过伊朗的无人机和导弹袭击。

They say this will degrade Iran's ability to threaten the region, but most countries have faced Iranian drones and missile strikes.

他们会卷入这场战斗吗？

Will they be drawn into this fight?

嗯，这确实是一个重大担忧，也是为什么有些人现在呼吁降级的原因。

Well, that's really a big concern and why some are calling for de escalation now.

其中包括联合国最高人道主义官员汤姆·弗莱彻。

That includes the UN's top humanitarian official, Tom Fletcher.

他称这是个危险的时刻。

He calls this a perilous moment.

他说，每天有大约十亿美元被花在这场战争上，他担心他所称的技术与杀戮日益致命的结合。

He says about a billion dollars a day are being spent on this war, and he's worried about what he calls an increasingly deadly alliance of technology and killing.

我们正目睹对那些旨在约束我们最恶劣本能和防止鲁莽战争的制度与法律的持续攻击。

We're seeing a sustained attack against the systems and laws meant to restrain us from our worst instincts and from reckless warfare.

如今，仪表盘上的太多警示灯都在闪烁。

So too many warning lights are flashing on the dashboard right now.

他还担心这可能会对市场和供应链产生连锁反应，对世界上最贫穷的人造成毁灭性影响。

And he's also worried this could have ripple effects on markets and supply chains, which would have a devastating impact on the world's poorest people.

世界各国领导人和外交官正在采取什么措施来防止局势进一步升级？

What are world leaders and diplomats doing to keep this from escalating further?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，联合国的最高官员，抱歉。

I mean, the UN's top, sorry.

欧盟高级外交官卡娅·卡利斯本周与海湾国家的同行会面，她说他们正在讨论如何促进稳定。

The European Union's top diplomat, Kaya Callis, met this week with counterparts from the Gulf States, and she says they're talking about what they can do to promote stability.

她说，每个人都担心伊朗内部接下来会发生什么。

And she says everyone's worried about what comes next inside Iran.

听一下。

Take a listen.

每次我们在中东看到这些战争时，都会发现事情并没有那么简单，不可能今天开战，明天就出现民主。

Every time when, you know, we have seen these wars, before in The Middle East, we have also seen that it doesn't go, that easy, that, you know, one day there's war and the next day there's democracy.

所以，显然风险是存在的。

So, clearly, the risks are there.

她指的是内战的风险。

And she means the risks of civil war.

她还担心波斯湾地区的防空系统。

She's also worried about air defenses in The Gulf.

你知道吗，胡安娜，有趣的是，乌克兰实际上正在向海湾国家提供一些帮助，因为它在应对俄罗斯使用的伊朗无人机技术方面有经验。

And, you know, it's interesting, Juana, because Ukraine is actually offering Gulf states some help because it has experience in dealing with Iranian drone technology used by Russia.

说到俄罗斯，米歇尔，《华盛顿邮报》报道称，俄罗斯已向伊朗提供了有关目标的情报，而NPR现已能够独立证实这一点。

And speaking of Russia, Michelle, the Washington Post is reporting that Russia has helped the Iranians with intelligence for its targets, and that's something that NPR has now been able to independently confirm.

到目前为止，俄罗斯扮演了什么角色？

What role has Russia been playing so far?

美国方面称，美国和以色列的行动违反了国际法。

Well, it's called for The US and it called The US and Israeli actions a violation of international law.

中国也是如此，但这两国都没有向伊朗提供明确的军事支持。

China has too, but neither of them are really offering overt military support to Iran.

它们都是包括伊朗在内的金砖国家成员。

They're both members of the BRICS group, which includes Iran.

印度也是其中之一，但即便美国在印度洋击沉了那艘伊朗船只后，印度至今仍保持沉默。

And, you know, India's in that too, but India's been pretty silent so far even after The US torpedoed that Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean.

那艘船当时是在印度的邀请下停泊的，朱安娜。

And that ship was there, Juana, at the invitation of India.

它曾参与由印度海军主办的多国海军演习。

It had participated in a multi nation naval drill that was hosted by the Indian Navy.

特朗普总统表示，在伊朗投降后，他的原话是，盟友和合作伙伴将把伊朗从悬崖边拉回来。

President Trump has said that after Iran's surrender, his words, allies and partners will bring Iran back from the brink.

但从你的角度来看，他会拥有愿意合作的伙伴来实现这一点吗？

But from your point of view, will he have willing partners to do that?

好吧，我们只能拭目以待。

Well, we'll have to see.

我的意思是，就在几周前，特朗普还召集了他所谓的和平委员会，旨在重建加沙并为该计划筹款。

I mean, I will point out that it was just a couple of weeks ago that Trump brought together, what he's calling this board of peace to rebuild Gaza and raise money for that.

现在印度尼西亚表示已暂停与该委员会的对话，尽管美国国务院坚称印度尼西亚仍是成员。

Indonesia now says that it's paused its talks with the board, though the state department insists that Indonesia is still a member.

这是一个关键国家，因为它是少数愿意为稳定部队提供军队的国家之一。

It's really a key country because it's one of the few countries, willing to offer troops for a stabilization force.

所以我们得看看它是否会继续参与。

So we'll have to see if it continues with that.

国务院的米歇尔·凯勒曼。

Michelle Kellerman at the state department.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

美国人对这场战争的感受如何？

How are Americans feeling about the war?

我与NPR资深政治编辑兼记者多梅尼科·蒙塔纳罗讨论过这个问题。

That's something I discussed with NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.

他加入我的节目，为我们解读了NPR、PBS新闻和马里斯特学院最新联合民调的结果。

He joined me to talk through the results of a new NPR PBS news Marist poll.

那么，我们从这次民调中了解到了人们对战争的哪些看法？

So what did we learn about how people feel

关于这场战争，人们的态度是怎样的？

about this war?

多数人反对军事行动。

A majority are against the military action.

你知道吗，56%的人表示反对，这是马里斯特本周调查的近1600人中的比例。

You know, 56% said that they oppose, and that's of the six almost 1,600 people that Marist surveyed this week.

就像我们在其他民调中看到的那样，民主党人和独立选民的立场基本一致。

And like we've seen in other polls, Democrats and independents are largely aligned.

近九成的民主党人和61%的独立选民反对这场战争，但共和党人强烈支持，84%的人表示赞成。

Almost nine in 10 Democrats and 61% of independents are against the war, but Republicans heavily in support, 84% say that they're in favor.

这很有趣，因为此前有大量讨论那些并不支持这场战争的MAGA影响者。

That's interesting because so much has been made of the the various MAGA influencers who are not so supportive of this war.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，总会有一些这样的声音，但就像特朗普总统做的其他许多极具争议的事情一样，绝大多数共和党人仍然坚定地站在他这边，并且由于各种原因，他们很可能会继续支持他。

I mean, there's gonna be those voices, but like on so many other highly controversial things that president Trump has done, the overwhelming majority of Republicans are strongly in his corner and are likely gonna continue to be there for lots of reasons.

所以，政治党派之间存在巨大分歧，正如你之前所说，这正是过去十年的写照。

So a big divide by political party, which, like you said before, is the story of

过去十年。

the last decade.

这里还有其他值得注意的分歧吗？

Were there any other notable divides here?

是的。

Yeah.

18至29岁的年轻人是所有年龄组中最反对军事行动的。

Younger people, those 18 to 29 years old, were the most likely of any age group to be against the military action.

将近三分之二的人表示了这一点。

Almost two thirds say that.

在教育、性别和种族方面也存在显著差异。

There were also notable divides by education, gender, and race.

例如，拥有学位的白人强烈反对这一行动，而没有学位的白人则略微多数支持。

For example, whites with degrees heavily opposed the action, while whites without degrees, a slight majority is in favor.

在男女方面，男性更有可能支持这一行动。

When it comes to men and women, men are far more likely to support it.

在种族方面，非裔和拉美裔人群比白人更倾向于反对这一行动。

And on race, those who are black and Latino were more likely to be against the action than whites were.

那特朗普总统呢？

What about president Trump?

人们如何看待他处理此事的方式？

How are people viewing the way that he is handling this?

是的。

Yeah.

在这件事上，他的批准率仅为36%。

He gets just a 36% approval rating when it comes to this war.

这与我们上个月的民调中特朗普在外交政策上的总体批准率一致。

The that mirrors Trump's overall approval rating on foreign policy from our last poll last month.

这比我们在2020年1月就刺杀圣城军指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼事件询问他对伊朗处理方式时的批准率还要低，当时约为42%。

It's also worse than when we asked about his handling of Iran after the killing of the Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani back in January 2020, then about 42% approved.

不算好，但还是高一些。

Not great, but still higher.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我们再次看到一些相同的分歧。

We also see, again, some of the same divides.

民主党人和独立选民强烈反对，而八到十成的共和党人支持特朗普。

Democrats and independents heavily disapproving, while eight and ten Republicans in Trump's corner.

让我们退一步来看。

Let's take a step back.

特朗普和其他人支持这场战争的一个重要理由是，伊朗对美国构成了巨大威胁。

A big part of the justification for this war from from Trump and others is that Iran is a huge threat to The United States.

美国人有多大的程度上也这么认为？

How much how much do Americans feel that way?

是的。

Yeah.

大多数民众，55%的人认为伊朗仅构成轻微威胁或根本没有威胁。

A majority, 55% sees Iran as only a minor threat or no threat at all.

44%的人认为伊朗是重大威胁，这个比例实际上比去年夏天低了四个百分点。

44% do see it as a major threat, and that's four points lower actually than last summer.

认为伊朗是重大威胁的人群主要是共和党人、白人福音派基督徒、没有大学学位的白人女性、居住在农村地区的人，以及45至59岁的人。

Those who see Iran as a major threat are mostly Republicans, white evangelical Christians, white women without college degrees, those who live in rural areas, and people who are 45 to four to 59 years old.

最不可能认为伊朗是重大威胁的人群包括：拥有大学学位的白人女性、居住在东北部的人、白人大学毕业生，以及千禧一代。

Those least likely to see it as a major threat, white women with college degrees, people who live in the Northeast, white college graduates, and millennials.

我们正看到美国人对伊朗威胁在美国社会中有多大影响存在严重分歧，而特朗普政府一直在不断改变其对伊朗威胁的合理性解释，或最初发动这场战争的触发事件。

We're seeing a real schism about just how heavily Americans feel the threat of Iran looms over American society, and the Trump administration has really been shifting its rationales for the threat that Iran poses and or what the triggering event was to start this war in the first place.

你知道，特朗普在许多政策上仍面临美国公众的怀疑，而人们继续表示经济是他们最关心的问题，认为特朗普对此关注不够。

You know, Trump continues to face a skeptical American public on many of his policies while people are continuing to say the economy is their top concern, that Trump isn't focused enough on it.

今天，我们看到了就业报告的下滑，过去一年中已有五份月度就业报告显示出失业增长，而在此之前的四年里，自疫情以来一直保持着连续的就业增长。

And today, we saw losses in the jobs report, and there have been now five monthly jobs reports that have shown losses in the past year when there had been four straight years of job increases before that dating back to the pandemic.

NPR的多梅尼科·蒙塔纳罗。

NPR's Domenico Montanaro.

非常感谢你。

Thank you so much.

明白。

You got it.

本集由康纳·多诺万、埃琳娜·伯内特、阿莱哈德拉·马克斯·简塞和埃里卡·莱恩制作，音频工程由泰德·米宾负责。

This episode was produced by Connor Donevan, Elena Burnett, Alejandra Marquez Janse, and Erika Ryan with audio engineering by Ted Meebain.

本集由巴里·哈迪蒙、塔拉·尼尔、达娜·法林顿、珍妮特·伍兹和考特尼·多宁编辑。

It was edited by Barrie Hardymon, Tara Neill, Dana Farrington, Jeanette Woods, and Courtney Dorning.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·耶尼贡。

Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.

在结束之前，感谢我们的《Consider This Plus》听众，你们支持NPR记者的工作，帮助维持公共广播的活力。

And before we go, thank you to our Consider This Plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong.

支持者还能在没有广告插播的情况下收听每一集，并解锁《Consider This》的独家附加剧集。

Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors and unlock bonus episodes of consider this.

更多信息请访问 +.npr.org。

You can learn more at +.npr.org.

这是来自NPR的《Consider This》。

It's consider this from NPR.

我是斯科特·德特罗。

I'm Scott Detrow.

我是胡安娜·萨默斯。

And I'm Juana Summers.

想在没有广告插播的情况下收听这个播客吗？

Wanna hear this podcast without sponsor breaks?

亚马逊Prime会员可以通过亚马逊音乐免费收听《Consider This》无广告版，或者您也可以支持NPR的重要新闻报道，获取《Consider This Plus》服务，访问 +.npr.org。

Amazon Prime members can listen to consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music, or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get consider this plus at +.npr.org.

网址是 +.npr.org。

That's +.npr.org.