特朗普如何改变政治规范——缓慢而突然

特朗普总统在一群世界领导人面前表示，至少在目前，他不会动用军事力量夺取格陵兰。

President Trump told a gathering of world leaders that for now at least, he won't take Greenland using military force.

因为人们以为我会动用武力。

Because people thought I would use force.

我不必动用武力。

I don't have to use force.

我不希望动用武力。

I don't wanna use force.

我不会动用武力。

I won't use force.

那是在瑞士达沃斯的世界经济论坛上。

That was in Davos, Switzerland at the World Economic Forum.

特朗普后来表示，事实上，他已与北约秘书长会面，并且有一个关于格陵兰未来协议的框架。

Trump later said, in fact, he had met with NATO's secretary general and has, quote, a framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland.

因此，这场威胁北约存亡的大西洋危机或许暂时搁置了。

So a transatlantic crisis that threatened the very existence of NATO is perhaps on pause.

但世界竟然在讨论美国以任何形式拥有格陵兰，这本身就说明了特朗普执政第一年的影响力。

But the mere fact that the world was talking about The US coming to own Greenland in any capacity says a lot about the Trump administration one year in.

而我现在正身处一个叫白宫的地方。

And here I am in a place called the White House.

这是一个美丽的地方。

It's a beautiful place.

谁能想到呢？

Who would have thought?

对吧？

Right?

在他第二个总统任期内，特朗普一再发表和做出过去被认为选民无法接受的言论和行为。

In his second stint in the presidency, Trump has repeatedly said and done things that were previously assumed to be unacceptable to voters.

周二，特朗普在白宫意外现身长达八十分钟，庆祝了其中几项举措。

In a surprise eighty minute appearance at the White House on Tuesday, Trump celebrated several of them.

我们让数百万人离开了联邦政府的 payroll。

We cut millions of people off the federal payroll.

我不喜欢这么做，但好消息是，我不觉得内疚，因为他们找到了私营部门的工作。

I don't like doing that, but the good news, I don't feel badly because they're getting private sector jobs.

而且他们还得到了活动人士的支持。

Anti and they're getting activists.

你能相信吗？

Can you believe it?

开始了废除联邦教育部并将教育权归还各州的进程。

Began the process of abolishing the federal Department of Education and returning education back to the States.

琳达·麦马洪做得非常出色。

And Linda McMahon is doing a fantastic job.

太糟糕了。

Terrible.

你有没有暂停所有难民进入美国，包括来自索马里——一个极其糟糕的地方——以及其他危险地区的难民？

And did you Halted all refugee admissions to The United States, including from Somalia, is a terrible, terrible place and other dangerous places.

已经出现了诉讼、抗议、史无前例的政府停摆，以及政府和军方高层的辞职。

There have been lawsuits, protests, record breaking government shutdown, resignations at top levels of government and military.

但总体而言，特朗普政府在几乎所有议程上都继续毫不动摇地推进。

But in general, the Trump administration continues undeterred on almost all of its agenda.

想想这个。

Consider this.

一年过去了，特朗普最显著的举措可能并非外交政策、对政治对手的联邦起诉，或在抗议活动中派遣军队进入城市。

One year in, Trump's most notable move might not be in foreign policy or his federal prosecution of his political enemies or his deploying troops to cities amid protests.

而在于他如何削弱了对自身权力的有效挑战。

It might be in how he has discouraged effective challenges to his power.

来自NPR，我是斯科特·德特罗。

From NPR, I'm Scott Dettrow.

这是NPR的《想想这个》节目。

It's consider this from NPR.

仅仅一年时间，特朗普政府就将政治可行性的边界推得如此之远，以至于他的反对者看起来已经精疲力竭。

In just one year, the Trump administration has pushed the window of what is possible in politics so far that his opposition just seems exhausted.

阿什利·帕克在《大西洋》杂志上撰文探讨了这一点。

Ashley Parker wrote about this for the Atlantic.

阿什利，感谢你加入我们。

Ashley, thanks for joining us.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

我想从你文章的标题开始谈起。

I wanna start with the title of your essay.

总统多年来一直用‘特朗普妄想综合症’这个词来形容他的批评者。

The president has had this term for critics for years now that they suffer from Trump derangement syndrome.

而你写道，这一任期以来，真正有意义的抵抗如此之少，我们或许该考虑‘特朗普倦怠综合症’这个说法。

And you wrote that there's been so little meaningful resistance this term that we might think about Trump exhaustion syndrome instead.

你能详细说说你对这个说法的想法吗？

Can you tell me more about what you're thinking about with that?

是的。

Yeah.

我在这篇文章中，想探讨的是他第二任期满一年后美国政治的‘温水煮青蛙’理论，不过我得先说明，这个理论其实是虚构的。

What I was really trying to explore with this piece one year into his second term was sort of the boiling frog theory of American politics, and I should say upfront that this theory is apocryphal.

这其实并不真实，但我认为对我们来说是有用的

It's not actually true, but I think it works for our purposes

是的

Yes.

实际情况是，如果你把青蛙扔进沸水里，它会跳出来

Which is the the way it goes is that if you drop a frog in boiling water, it will hop out.

但如果你把青蛙放进温水里，然后慢慢加温，它就不会意识到该跳出去，因为变化太微小、太渐进，最终会被煮死

But if you put a frog in lukewarm water and slowly turn up the heat, it will not know to jump out because the changes will be so incremental and gradual, and it will boil to death.

我觉得你在谈到沸水青蛙时举了一个非常好的例子

I think you also gave a really good example when you talked about the boiling frog.

你详细描述了导致尼古拉斯·马杜罗在委内瑞拉被夺权的一系列事件

You walked through the series of events leading up to the seizure of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela.

你能再回顾一下，我们是如何从A点一步步走到B点，而每一步都没有显得过于戏剧化的吗？

Can can you recap kind of how we got from point a to point b without any of the steps feeling overly dramatic?

当然

Sure.

这实际上始于2015年，当时特朗普在竞选演讲中首次登上全国舞台，将移民整体污名化为罪犯、强奸犯，不是我们中最优秀的人，是把毒品带过边境的人。

So it really starts back when in 2015 when Trump comes to national prominence as a politician in a campaign launch speech that demonizes immigrants broadly as, you know, criminals, rapists, not the best among us, people who are bringing drugs across the border.

因此，他长期以来一直在让公众习惯于‘无证移民很危险、是个问题’这种观念。

So he he has been getting the country comfortable for a long time with the idea that undocumented immigrants are dangerous and they're a problem.

但谈到委内瑞拉问题时，他援引了一项相对冷门的战时权力法案——《外敌法案》，宣布我们与委内瑞拉处于战争状态，具体针对的是委内瑞拉的一个帮派‘特伦德阿拉瓜’。

But going to this term with Venezuela, he uses, in a fairly obscure wartime powers act, the alien enemies act, to essentially declare that we are at war with Venezuela, specifically a Venezuelan gang, Trende Aragua.

由于我们与他们处于战争状态，因此可以采取某些战时措施来驱逐委内瑞拉人。

And because we are at war with them, we're able to take certain wartime liberties to deport Venezuelans.

在此过程中，许多民意调查显示，尽管未必是多数，但相当一部分美国人时不时地支持这些步骤。

And a lot of opinion polls along the way showed that by and large, a lot of these steps did have broad, if not a majority, you know, from time to time, a a good chunk of Americans were on board with each of these steps.

没错。

Exactly.

现在他们可能会看到一些实际场景的画面，心里有点不舒服。

Now there might be images they see of what this actually looks like that they kind of cringe at.

但总体而言，他们还是支持这些做法的。

But, yeah, broadly, they support this.

然后，他开始在委内瑞拉海岸附近的加勒比海和东太平洋海域对船只发动一系列打击。

Then he begins a series of strikes on boats in the Caribbean and East Pacific Oceans off the coast of Venezuela.

是的，这些被针对的船只中，很多确实载有毒品。

And, yes, a lot of these boats that are targeted, there are drugs on them.

但正如总统所声称的那样，这并非一大群帮派头目或毒枭正前往美国。

But it is not as the president has claimed, you know, a huge mob or cartel boss headed to The United States.

在某些情况下，这些只是小型渔船，船上的人是小罪犯，携带少量可卡因，并非前往美国，而是前往特立尼达等邻近岛屿。

In some cases, these are small fishing boats, people who are petty criminals bringing small amounts of cocaine not to The United States, but to neighboring islands like Trinidad.

但同样，我曾与白宫的一位人士交谈，他们说：‘如果你问普通美国人，我们应该炸掉一艘载有毒品、正驶向美国的船吗？’

But again, I was talking to someone in the White House and they said, look, if you ask the average American, should we blow up a boat with drugs on it headed to The United States?

他们会说好。

They say yes.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这一切都为最近一次扣押另一国总统并将其带到美国受审的事件铺平了道路。

And that all sets the stage for for the most recent seizure of of of another country's president who's brought to The United States and and and put on trial.

也许正如史蒂夫·班农所说，很多读《大西洋》杂志的人对这件事感到不满。

And maybe as Steve Bannon put it, a lot of people who read the Atlantic are upset about this.

但也许美国人实际上对这些做法是支持的，而对走向威权主义的抵制，可能和我们在高中社会课上想象的完全不同。

But maybe Americans are actually on board with a lot of this, and and and the pushback to steps toward authoritarianism is a lot different than maybe what we thought it would be in high school social studies.

是的。

Yeah.

说得完全正确。

That's exactly right.

走向威权主义的滑坡，当你向专家们谈起这一点时，包括我的一些同事，人们往往会想象成电影里的场景：穿着军靴的人在街头列队行进，坦克滚滚而来。

A slide towards authoritarianism, you know, when you talk to experts about this, including some of my colleagues, is people sort of imagine it like the movie version where there's, you know, men in jackboots marching in the streets and tanks rolling.

但那通常并不是威权主义的真正开端。

And that's not really how it often starts.

它更像是一种缓慢的滑坡，让人们逐渐对那些他们从未想过会接受的事情变得习以为常。

It's sort of a slow slide of getting people comfortable with things that they never thought they would be comfortable with.

我的意思是，报道这个故事以及其他许多故事一年后，你有什么感受？

I mean, what is your sense a year into the second term reporting this story and many other stories?

你有没有觉得，特朗普的最终目标是什么？

Do you have a sense of what you think Trump's end goals are?

他是想摧毁民主规范，还是仅仅想成为一名著名的总统，或者他的动机更偏向于即兴的、一事一议的？

Is it I want to tear down democratic norms, or is it something more straightforward of I want to be a notable famous president, or or is it even more moment to moment and and topic to topic than that?

你是怎么看待这个问题的？

Like, how do you think about this?

我不认为他有明确的意愿去摧毁民主规范。

I don't think he has a particular pointed desire to tear down democratic norms.

本质上，他只想做自己想做的事，不受法律和宪法规范的约束。

What essentially, he wants to do what he wants to do, unconstrained by laws and norms constitution.

当他第一次就职时，国会还能阻止他这样做。

And when he took office the first time, congress could prevent that from happening.

有时，哪怕是他自己党派的一名参议员，也能挫败他非常在意的举措。

Sometimes a single senator sometimes a single senator from his own party could foil something he cared deeply about.

像《日内瓦公约》和北约联盟这样的机制，都可能妨碍他实现自己的目标。

And that things like the Geneva Conventions and NATO alliances could get in the way with what he wanted to do.

在许多方面，这些制衡机制是有效的。

And in many ways, these guardrails worked.

在他的第二个任期内，他做任何事都毫无约束。

And in his second term, he is just unconstrained in doing what he wants to do.

如果破坏民主规范是代价，他非常乐意强行推进，但这只是附带的后果，而非最终目标。

And if it means shattering democratic norms, he's more than happy to bulldoze through them, but that's sort of an inadvertent symptom, not the end goal.

是的。

Yeah.

阿什利·帕克是《大西洋月刊》的资深撰稿人。

Ashley Parker is a staff writer at The Atlantic.

非常感谢你。

Thank you so much.

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢。

Thank you.

本集由阿莱杭德拉·马克斯·汉斯制作，音频工程由蒂芬妮·维拉卡斯特罗负责。

This episode was produced by Alejandra Marquez Hanse with audio engineering by Tiffany Veracastro.

本集由帕特里克·贾伦·瓦塔纳纳编辑。

It was edited by Patrick Jaren Watanana.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·埃廷根。

Our executive producer is Sammy Ettingen.

这是NPR的《就此而言》。

It's Consider This from NPR.

我是斯科特·德特劳克斯。

I'm Scott Detreaux.