在特朗普的美国，还有总统惯例可言吗？

上个周末，美国发动了战争。

This past weekend, The United States went to war.

这个国家在几乎没有预警的情况下投入战争，自轰炸开始以来，其理由每天甚至每小时都在变化。

The country went to war without much notice and with the justification that has shifted sometimes hour by hour in the days since bombing began.

特朗普并没有在椭圆形办公室或白宫东厅发表演讲来宣布对伊朗开战，而是在他拥有的社交媒体平台上发布了一段经过剪辑的视频，时间是凌晨2:30。

President Trump didn't announce the war with Iran in a speech from the Oval Office or the White House's East Room, but rather in an edited video posted at 02:30AM on the social media platform he owns.

不久前，美国军队已在伊朗展开大规模军事行动。

A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.

特朗普戴着一顶低低地拉过眼睛的棒球帽。

Trump was wearing a baseball cap pulled low over his eyes.

这个政权很快就会明白，没有人应该挑战美国武装部队的力量与威严。

This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States armed forces.

从那以后，他不断挑衅伊朗海军，并用全大写字母警告伊朗，将面临更猛烈的美军打击。

Since then, he has taunted Iran's navy and in all caps warned Iran about even harsher US military strikes.

本周，这些帖子夹杂在其他内容之间，特朗普虚假声称选举被操纵和窃取，呼吁起诉各种反对他的人，并游说将自己的头像印上美元纸币。

Those posts came between others this week where Trump has falsely claimed elections were rigged and stolen, called for the prosecution of various people who have opposed him, and lobbied to put his face on US currency.

所有这些都说明，在特朗普总统任内，总统职位及其相关规范发生了巨大变化。

All of this is to say the presidency and the norms surrounding it have changed a lot under president Trump.

想想这一点。

Consider this.

多年来，唐纳德·特朗普一直忽视总统职位的规范与传统。

For years, Donald Trump has ignored the norms and traditions of the presidency.

随着伊朗战争的爆发，他是否彻底消除了这些规范？

With the war in Iran, has he eliminated them completely?

来自NPR，我是斯科特·德特罗。

From NPR, I'm Scott Dettrow.

这是来自NPR的‘想想这一点’。

It's consider this from NPR.

自2018年初以来，苏珊·格拉瑟一直在《纽约客》上撰写每周专栏《特朗普华盛顿来信》。

Susan Glasser has been writing a weekly column, letters from Trump's Washington for The New Yorker since early twenty eighteen.

她创办这个专栏，是为了回应他执政下加速的新闻周期，并作为一种方式，记录每周发生的事情，因为在这样的环境中，选民很容易遗忘。

She launched the column as a response to the accelerated news cycle under his leadership and as a way to mark what has happened each week in a climate where voters can quickly forget.

我觉得现在是时候再联系她一下了。

And it seemed like a good time to check back in with her.

嗨，苏珊。

Hi, Susan.

嗨。

Hi.

你怎么样？

How are you?

我还行。

I'm alright.

我最想知道的是，如果你当初刚开始写这个专栏时，突然从未来听到了那段介绍，你会怎么回应——这就是特朗普总统将总统职位带到了的地方？

And I'm the thing I'm mostly wondering is if you had gotten a message from the future somehow hearing a version of that introduction when you first started this column, what would your response have been that this is the place that president Trump has taken the presidency?

你知道吗，你说得很有意思，我2018年为《纽约客》写的第一篇《特朗普的华盛顿来信》就是关于特朗普和他的政府争论是否以及如何打击伊朗的。

You know, it's interesting you say that my very first letter from Trump's Washington for The New Yorker in the 2018 was about Donald Trump and his administration arguing over Iran and whether and how to strike Iran.

这一直是总统及其周围许多人长期关注的主题。

This has been a long running theme for the president, for many of those surrounding him.

我认为特朗普1.0和特朗普2.0之间的区别在于，他更愿意采取这种高风险、大手笔的行动。

And I think the difference between Trump one point o and Trump two point o is that he's much more willing to take risky, big actions like this.

是的。

Yeah.

你之前稍微推测了一下，这种行为背后可能的根本驱动力是什么。

You speculated a little bit about what could be driving this at a core level.

你知道，从某种程度上说，这位大阿亚图拉一直是历任总统都难以应对的人物，他们都想以某种方式除掉他。

You know, everything from the fact that this is you know, the Ayatollah is somebody who president after president after president had a really hard time dealing with, wanted to get rid of in one way or another.

特朗普现在可以说：‘我就是那个做到了的人。’

Trump can now say, I'm the guy who did it.

你知道吗？

You know?

而在另一个层面上，也许他只是从下令军事打击中获得快感。

And and then at a different level, maybe he just gets a rush out of ordering military strikes.

根据你的报道和分析，你认为这里的根本原因到底是什么？

Based on your reporting and analysis, like, what do you think the core reasoning is here?

你说得对。

Well, you're right.

这位总统正在寻求留下重大遗产和标志性时刻。

This is a president in search of legacy and big legacy moments.

我们在华盛顿这里，他正忙着把名字刻在全城的建筑上。

We're talking in Washington where he's busy putting his name on buildings all over the city.

他拆掉了白宫的东翼。

He knocked down the East Wing of the White House.

至于他对格陵兰的兴趣，你从总统那里听到的，是一个想要几乎重绘世界地图的人。

Things like his interest in in Greenland, what you hear from the president is someone who's in search of almost rewriting the map of the world.

在伊朗最高领袖领导下的伊朗政府一直困扰着美国，对美国、以色列及其他国家发动了恐怖袭击。

The Iranian government under the Ayatollahs has bedeviled The United States, has launched a campaign of terror against The US and Israel and others.

而你知道，唐纳德·特朗普对他的大多数前任都充满蔑视，因此他现在可以说，自己有胆量采取行动，而他们却未能做到。

And Donald Trump, as you know, has nothing but disdain for most of his predecessors, so he can now say he had the boldness to act where they failed to do so.

我认为这就是这里的动因。

I believe that is a motivating factor here.

另一件重要的事情是，这对美国和以色列来说是一个机遇时刻。

The other important thing is this was a moment of opportunity for The United States and Israel.

我认为当时有一种感觉，如果我们打算对伊朗政权采取行动，现在正是一个绝佳的时机。

And I think there was a sense, like, if we were going to go after the Iranian regime now was an opportunistic time to do it.

嗯。

Mhmm.

在过去的几天里，我一直在以几种不同的方式将这场与伊朗的战争与海湾战争进行比较。

I've been, over the past few days, comparing this war with Iran to the Gulf War in a few different ways.

你恰好写过一本关于国务卿詹姆斯·贝克的书，你重点探讨了那场战争中的外交、联盟建设以及公众辩论。

You happen to have written a book about secretary of state James Baker, and you focused a lot on the diplomacy and the coalition building and the public arguments that went into that conflict.

这是一个有点愤世嫉俗的问题，但我很好奇，如果正如一些迹象所显示的那样，美国选民并不关心这些细节——而这次这些事情似乎都没有发生，这些还重要吗？

This is a cynical question, but I'm wondering if any of that matters in the end if if if you see as as some indications seem to, you know, show American voters don't necessarily care about all of that not happening this time around.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

这反映了我们社会以及政治环境的巨大变化，尤其是如今的两极分化程度远超第一次海湾战争时期。

It's a measure of how different and changed we are as a society, and our politics in particular are so much more polarized than the first Gulf War.

你提到了国务卿詹姆斯·贝克和老布什总统，他们当时非常致力于展示第一次海湾战争的正义性与正当性。

You mentioned secretary of state James Baker, president George h w Bush, so intent upon showing the justice and the justification for especially that first Gulf War.

因此，这一点就更加令人惊讶了。

So all the more remarkable

嗯。

Mhmm.

唐纳德·特朗普，这位号称‘不发动新战争’的总统，而卡玛拉·哈里斯则被说成会把你拖入第三次世界大战，如今却由他来发动一场在中东没有直接导火索的主动战争。

That Donald Trump, the president of no new wars and Kamala Harris is gonna get you into World War three, that he would be the president to launch a war of choice without an immediate precursor event in The Middle East.

这真是一个规模空前的政治逆转。

It's a political flip flop really of epic proportions.

是的。

Yeah.

今年早些时候，特朗普接受《纽约时报》采访时，被问及是否认为自己的权力存在任何限制。

Trump did an interview with The New York Times earlier this year, and he was asked if he sees any limitations on his power.

他的回答是，是的。

And his response was, yeah.

只有一件事，我自己的道德，我自己的良知。

There's one thing, my own morality, my own mind.

这是唯一能阻止我的东西。

It's the only thing that can stop me.

我想知道你怎么看这个问题。

I'm wondering what you think about this.

我的意思是，如果国会、法院和其他国家都不对特朗普进行制衡，他在某种意义上是不是对的？

I mean, if Congress and the courts and other countries don't push back on Trump, is he right in a sense?

考虑到今年是美国实验250周年，这一想法令人不寒而栗——美国建国的基础是法治而非人治，更不是由一个拥有帝王权力的个人统治。

It's quite a chilling thought considering that, you know, the American experiment, 250 years old this year, is based on the premise of us having a government of laws and not of men and certainly not of one man with kingly powers.

我想说的是，像油价急剧飙升、特朗普及其政党支持率急剧下滑这类情况，仍然构成某种制约。

I would say this, things like dramatically spiking oil prices, dramatically plummeting approval ratings for Trump and his party, those remain constraints of a sort.

你知道，利率也可能会上升。

You know, interest rates as well may go up.

海湾地区那些如今遭到伊朗袭击的美国盟友和合作伙伴可能会施压特朗普，让他撤回军事行动。

American allies and partners in The Gulf who've now been attacked by Iran may pressure Trump to pull back on the operations.

我认为对他来说，他仍然保留着将这场冲突保持在相对有限且短期范围内并尽快结束的选项。

I think for him, he's still holding out the option of keeping this a relatively limited and short duration conflict and getting out.

当然，一旦你释放出这样的力量，你就不是唯一有发言权的人了，接下来会发生的事情可能会让特朗普的这一计划成为可能，也可能不会。

Now, of course, you know, once you unleash something like this, you you don't get the only vote, and events will transpire that may or may not make that possible for Trump.

苏珊·格拉瑟是《纽约客》的特约撰稿人。

Susan Glasser is a staff writer for The New Yorker.

非常感谢你和我们讨论这些内容。

Thank you so much for talking talking to us about all of this.

谢谢。

Thank you.

本集由埃里卡·莱恩制作，音频工程由贝基·布朗和达米安·赫林负责。

This episode was produced by Erika Ryan with audio engineering by Becky Brown and Damian Herring.

本集由莎拉·汉德尔和考特尼·多宁编辑。

It was edited by Sarah Handel and Courtney Dorning.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·耶尼贡。

Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.

这是来自NPR的《就此而言》。

It's Consider This from NPR.

我是斯科特·德特罗克斯。

I'm Scott Detreaux.